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Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 12:41:00 AM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) up $0.02 at $55.12. e-mini S&P (es05m) up 0.25, or +0.02% at 1,183.75.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 12:28:51 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.80 and set for selling at $+1.58.

OI Technical Staff : 4/11/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 7:55:34 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.21 -0.86% ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $31.23, $31.86, Piv= $32.36, $32.98, $33.48

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 7:52:58 PM

I missed max pain numbers. Can you repost them? DIA $106 ($1 increments) SPX 1,190 (5-point increments) SPY $119 ($1 incrments) OEX 560 (5-point increments) NDX 1,500 (25-point increments) QQQQ $37.00 ($1 increments) SOX.X 420 (5-point increments) TNX.X 45.00 (2.5 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 5:10:56 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 4:38:40 PM

Closing Internals at this Link . Dismal follow-through for NASDAQ's 5-day NH/NL ratio after Friday's 3-box reversal higher (34%).

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 4:33:59 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 4:27:40 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Today's Activity ... No trades were profiled today. Very tight range for the indices and my two eyes couldn't find a new trade that I had much conviction in. (Questioning yesterday's 180-mile, 15-hour drive in blizzard)

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 3:52:24 PM

Maverick Tube (MVK) $31.88 +0.03% ... inches green.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 3:52:17 PM

The OEX drops again. Strongest nearby Keltner support appears to be at about 561.08.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 3:51:18 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $42.03 -3.90% ... challenging its rising 21-day SMA ($42.08) and 50-day SMA ($41.80) into the close. July $42.50 Puts (QAA-SV) bid/ask $4.30 x $4.40

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 3:46:31 PM

This is an immediate retest of the triangle support that the OEX broke through just a few minutes ago. Bears would rather not see an immediate retest and certainly want to see it fail.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 3:44:49 PM

QQQQ finding support at combined 30 and 60 min channel support at 36.38. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 3:41:55 PM

The OEX dropped toward first Keltner support on the 15-minute chart, but bounced almost immediately. Bears don't want that bounce to carry too far, or the break of the formation looks like a stop-running move.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 3:43:44 PM

Geoglobal Resources (AMEX:GGR) $2.58 +32.98% ... speculative oil and natural gas exploration company atop today's percentage gainer list and threatens to close at its highest level since August 2004.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 3:35:30 PM

Tentative OEX break out of the symmetrical triangle on the 15-minute chart. Tentative first support at 561.67 and then down near 560.60, according to the Keltner chart. Bears don't want to see a quick bounce now.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2005 3:32:01 PM

Dateline CNN An American contractor was kidnapped at a Baghdad construction site today, a U.S. Embassy official said.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 3:31:38 PM

June Crude (cl05m) ... daily interval chart with my bullishly fit 38.2% retracement at this Link where buyers refuse to let this contract settle below that $54.51 level. Continuous Oil ($WTIC) and its conventional $0.25 box chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 3:27:40 PM

I think that symmetrical triangle on the OEX's 15-minute chart started out as a rising regression channel, but gradually narrowed. Now, we'll at leazst be able to see when the OEX breaks one direction or the other. Maybe.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 3:25:44 PM

QQQQ's 60 min cycle bottomed at around the end of the morning and is drifting sideways in oversold territory, while the 30 min cycle bounced, reversed, and is trying to reverse again. This "unnatural" behavior for these cycle oscillators, and, in light of the persistence of resistance at Friday's lows, looks bearish to me below 36.66 resistance, the site of the failed noontime bounce. The daily cycle is showing a hesitation within its ongoing and nearly overbought upphase. Current 100 tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 3:20:11 PM

Symmetrical triangle on the OEX's 15-minute chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 3:28:45 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) $55.10 +0.82% (30-minute delayed) ... matched its 03/30/05 pullback lows, but now at session best. WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $50.93, $52.86, Piv= $56.03, $57.96, $61.13.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 3:11:07 PM

The advdec line drops again.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 3:09:36 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 3:06:35 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 3:02:32 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 2:58:34 PM

Once again, the OEX fifteen-minute Keltner resistance appears to be holding. In particular, it appears to be the line currently at 563.22 that's holding on 15-minute closes, although the Keltner resistance ranges a little higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 2:58:18 PM

Ten year treasuries are sliding sideways toward the cash close, ZN futures trading 109 14/64 and TNX down 4.5 bps at 4.446%, a 1% change for the day. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 2:55:11 PM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $36.50 -0.38%, F $10.38 -5.98%, INTC $23.12 -0.77%, SPY $118.22 +0.18%, MSFT $24.98 +0.16%, CSCO $18.01 +0.61%, JDSU $1.48 -1.33%, MCIP $25.99 +0.58%, AAPL $42.40 -3.06%, EBAY $33.99 -3.32%

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 2:48:18 PM

A push past "resistance" on the advdec line, with that resistance at -1000 issues.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 2:47:37 PM

The OEX tests the day's high and the Keltner resistance again. That resistance perhaps looks just a little softer, but I'm having to micro-analyze it to come up with that conclusion.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 2:45:58 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 2:43:23 PM

QQQQ is back to testing the 7200 tick SMA at 36.54. Link If it can break above it, the short cycle downphase will have bottomed at a nominally higher low this afternoon, suggesting another retest of the 36.66 resistance. Currently, the 30 and 60 min cycle channels are sideways and directionless.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 2:40:37 PM

The OEX is moving up again through its possible bear flag. I had expected the OEX to test 564 and possibly 565 today, forming a possible right shoulder for a H&S formation on its 60-minute chart, but it hasn't been able to rise past the bottom of the next resistance zone, much less the top of the resistance zone. The fifteen-minute Keltner chart shows that resistance (on closes) still looks strong, under 563.40. A strong buy program can push past it, but as it's configured now, it looks as if it will take a strong buy program to push through it and maintain values above it. I was thinking that a push above it and a hesitation soon after would fit the whole H&S scenario, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 2:36:34 PM

Nymex crude went out just below the high of the day of 53.7, at 53.675. OPEC's contemplation of another 500,000 bpd quota increase would bring the quota to 28 million bpd, but the estimate I saw last week indicated that they're currently pumping at rate of 29.83 million bpd.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 2:34:12 PM

Although the advdec line ambles around, it's been generally climbing since about 10:45, but also finding resistance at -1000 shares (by my charting service) all afternoon. I'll be watching to see if it breaks through to the upside or the downside to give a clue to market direction or to corroborate it.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 2:33:48 PM

Balanced Benchmark since 03/31/05 rebalancing at this Link ... PHF "junk bond" kicked off its $0.0.75 monthly dividend to investors today.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 2:29:36 PM

Keltner evidence suggests that the OEX remains vulnerable to a test of the day's low, but the OEX appears to be clinging to the support of its bear flag.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 2:29:16 PM

iShares GS $ Invest (AMEX:LQD) $108.97 +0.29% ... blended maturities (corporate high grade).

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 2:25:56 PM

Eaton Vance Ltd. Duration (EVV) $17.56 +0.86% ... found a bid just ahead of today's strong 3-month T-bill auction statistics. (see Jonathan's 01:07:13 post)

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 2:24:58 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link with the short cycle oscillators reaching oversold territory.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 2:20:24 PM

May crude oil has ticked positive, up .05 here at 53.375 off a low of 52.25.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 2:14:00 PM

The OEX again tests the support of its possible bear flag, with 15-minute resistance still looking firm just under 563.41. A bear-flag breakdown would need to be confirmed by a new LOD. Bears should be particularly careful near that previous LOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 2:14:10 PM

ZN bonds have pulled back from their 109 5/16 high, currently trading 109 39/64. TNX is up to a 4.5 bp loss at 4.446%. Updated daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 2:03:41 PM

The OEX has once again been testing the support of the possible bear flag. It hasn't broken through the flag's support, I don't think. Fifteen-minute resistance still looks firm, with support looking a little less firm than it did earlier.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 2:03:38 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 2:00:56 PM

My forex news source says that the ECB's Hurley says that the high price of oil risks higher inflation. Hurley sees possibilities that higher oil prices will persist. Hurley also addressed currency risks related to corrections in global imbalances. Hurley also noted that the ECB will have to remove its accomodative policy at some time, but that the ECB's monetary policy currently is that needed for price stability.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 1:57:26 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart at this Link with price rejected at Friday's low. This is the first such violation of the daily cycle upphase in a week, and while the daily cycle oscillators have not issued sell signals, both the 10-day stochastic and Macd are showing a slight downtick. That downtick should progress toward sell signals, in which case Friday's high would mark the daily cycle high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 2:01:31 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $42.65 -2.49% ... reversed earlier gains after Caris & Company downgraded to "average" from "above average." On 02/11/05 when AAPL opened for trade at $39.93, Caris & Company had downgraded AAPL to "above average" from "buy." On 10/04/04 AAPL opened at $19.59 when Caris & Company upgraded the stock to "buy" from "above average." Piper Jaffray maintained their "outperform" rating and $50 price target, expecting "slight upside" to consensus estimates for earnings of $0.23 per share on revenue of $3.17 billion. Piper said "Our checks with 20 Apple specialist value-added resellers give us confidence that demand for Apple's key products were solid in the quarter.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 1:51:43 PM

The OeX turns down within its possible bear flag. Support appears to be at about 562.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 1:50:17 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 1:48:27 PM

We're in the prime stop-running time of day. Will the OEX finally make a break?

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 1:52:32 PM

Volume is thin for QQQQ today, with the 47.5M shares traded so far not even half the average daily volume, and looking to miss Frida's light 92.4M shares as well. Price has just tried but appears to be failing to regain the 7200 tick SMA resistance, with the 30 and 60 min channels now drifting sideways as the short cycle oscillators roll over.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 1:46:24 PM

And the OEX rises again to test the gathered Keltner resistance now near 563.40.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 1:35:28 PM

SPY $118.12 +0.10% ... 30-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link (see daily interval at 01:28:53)

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 1:34:36 PM

All day, the OEX has been finding resistance at its 60-minute 21-ema on period closes, currently at 563.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 1:33:05 PM

Gold and silver are holding their ground, but the miners continue to slip, HUI now -.33% at 198.33 and XAU -.45% at 92.47. Silver is currently leading the broader CRB, with the commodities index down 1.75 at 302.57. Silver, copper, gold and platinum are the top 4 leaders.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 1:28:53 PM

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) $118.13 +0.11% ... updated daily interval bar chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement. Dashed PINK is benchmark to large blocks from 04/05/05. Link Bulls will exercise caution below Weely R1, with near-term support $117.40-$117.50. Keep eye on "junk bond" PHF, which is weak today despite strong gains for Treasuries.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 1:27:17 PM

The resistance near 563.50 on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart still holds. The OEX may be forming up into a possible bear flag now, rising off this morning's low. So far, that potential bear flag has not yet retraced 38.2% of the drop off Friday's high and certainly not more than 50%, with the 50% mark just under 564.20, but the OEX also has not yet broken below the support of that flag.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2005 1:25:31 PM

Dateline WSJ After all the post-bubble scandals involving analysts who recommended stocks they knew were troubled, you would think that Wall Street analysts would be doing a better job of picking stocks.

You would be wrong.

As has been the case in past years, stocks with large proportions of "sell" recommendations from Wall Street analysts have lately performed better than those with plenty of "buy" or "hold" ratings and no sell ratings at all, according to an analysis by Zacks Investment Research in Chicago, done for The Wall Street Journal. In fact, the stocks with sell recommendations have widened their lead since the stock bubble burst in 2000.

It might seem surprising that the stocks that Wall Street hates would do better than the ones it loves, but it makes a certain amount of sense.

Contrarian investors actually look around for stocks with a lot of sell recommendations, and, if the company looks likely to survive, they buy. The reason is simple: Wall Street analysts hate to tell clients to sell. They avoid lowering their recommendation on a stock until after something bad has happened, when the stock already has fallen.

"I have noticed it and I frequently buy stocks when they have sells on them," says Robert Marcin, who runs a hedge fund called Defiance Asset Management in Conshohocken, Pa. "By the time analysts get around to putting sells on stocks, the stocks are probably primed to perform well."

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 1:24:21 PM

7200 tick SMA support breaking now, QQQQ at 36.51. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 1:15:00 PM

Despite the new highs printing for 10-year bonds, with TNX down 6.1 bps now at 4.43%, QQQQ is pulling back again in its 2nd failure below 36.66 since the 30 min and short cycle upphases began. 7200 tick SMA support is up to 36.53, on the verge of being tested here. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 1:09:42 PM

As the OEX continues to test resistance, the advdec line just ambles around, not giving clear clues either.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 1:08:56 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 1:07:13 PM

The 3 month t-bill auction of 17B generated a bid to cover ratio of 2.77, with foreign central banks buying 2.2B of the total. The 6 month bills generated 2.25 bids for each note offered, with indirect bidders taking 4.2B of the total. Ten year treasuries are strengthening, TNX now down 5.6 bps at 4.435%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 1:02:30 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 12:57:32 PM

The t-bill auction should be winding down now, with 17B in 3 month and 15B in 6 month bills being auctioned. I will post the results as soon as they are released. Currently, 10 year t-bonds are holding solid gains, TNX -5.1 bps at 4.44%. We could see some movement once the results are out.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 12:49:53 PM

The just-completed OEX 15-minute candle was a bearish candle on the top of a short climb, so bulls don't want to see confirmation with a tall red candle this 15-minute period. Keltner evidence still shows strong resistance just overhead, but its smallest Keltner channel tries to turn higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 12:45:56 PM

QQQQ briefly penetrated north of 36.60 and pulled back slightly, the 30 min channel again challenging the still-declining 60 min channel with resistance lined up at 36.66 resistance. With the short cycle entering overbought territory, that 36.66 confluence is looking like stiff resistance. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 12:41:47 PM

The just-reached 563.35 high during the current 15-minute period almost touched the 563.50-ish level that's a 38.2% retracement of the plunge off Friday's high. The 50% retracement is just under 564.20.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 12:35:47 PM

If the OEX should continue climbing toward 564.50-565, all should be aware of the potential for it to flatten and either roll over into a right shoulder or eventually climb higher, rejecting a potential H&S on the 60-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 12:34:03 PM

The OEX tests the 60-minute 21- and 100-ema at 563.42 and 563.61.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 12:31:18 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Northern Peru was hit with a magnitude 6.1 earthquake on Monday, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The temblor struck at 10:54 am ET.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 12:30:02 PM

Little buy program in here .... SPY $118.28 +0.24% ... gets some volume.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 12:29:46 PM

On the 15-minute Keltner chart, OEX resistance (on 15-minute closes) not gathers from 563.25-563.54.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 12:26:48 PM

Not much to say other than what I've said before. The OEX still trades sideways preparatory to a pop through resistance or support, with both looking about equally weighted on the 15-minute Keltner chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 12:25:01 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link , coming in for a retest of the flattening 7200 tick SMA at 36.51. A bounce will kick off a new 30 min cycle upphase, or rather confirm the current upticks, a failure will stall it. A short cycle upphase is currently in progress with a very slight bearish divergence in the short cycle Macd histogram (bottom pane).

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 12:16:55 PM

Will Keltner resistance hold the OEX or will support? Once again, they look nearly equally weighted on the 15-minute chart. Resistance near 563.50 still looks slightly stronger than support, but the support attempts to turn higher, better balancing it with the resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 12:14:50 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 12:09:22 PM

The sideways trading on the OEX is flattening that smallest Keltner channel now, but resistance just under 564 still looks firm.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 12:08:04 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 12:07:17 PM

Session high for ZN bond futures at 109 47/64, with TNX down 6.5 bps to 4.426% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 12:03:52 PM

QQQQ breaks north of the 7200 tick SMA for the first time today, currently up to 36.58 and coming in for a test of key 36.60 resistance at Friday's low. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 11:56:05 AM

The OEX is still trying to stabilize, still finding resistance on 15-minute closes at a Keltner line currently at 562.36.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 11:50:01 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.48 -0.05% ... updated WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement chart at this Link . Friday is April option expiration with "Max Pain" still at $106.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 11:47:47 AM

Nymex crude is currently lower by .60 at 52.725, printing a narrow range and net unchanged from from the current sesssion's open.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 11:47:46 AM

Here's what I see on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 11:44:47 AM

Ten year notes continue to strengthen, TNX now down 4.7 bps at 4.444%, back below the breakout point and now testing declining trendline support: Link . There's a treasury auction scheduled for today, 3- and 6-month bills, the results of which will be announced shortly after 1PM.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 11:42:24 AM

QQQQ tests 7200 tick SMA resistance from below for the first time today at 35.52. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 11:36:42 AM

The OEX bounces again, but resistance from 563.40-563.71 begins to look even firmer, too.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 11:30:55 AM

OEX dropping toward a retest of the LOD.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 11:24:15 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 11:22:30 AM

QQQQ has moved net sideways during the past hour despite the short cycle upphase, and the 7200 tick SMA has declined to 36.56 now. A weak short cycle bounce confirms the downside whipsaw in the 30 min cycle so far. If price can't advance more significantly than this, then the next short cycle downphase will most likely be impulsive, setting up an aggressive retest of the current lows. This is the first day in which QQQQ has broken the previous day's low in a week. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 11:19:06 AM

I had thought earlier that the OEX might trade sideways for a while because resistance and support look so equally weighted, on a Keltner basis. They still look fairly equally weighted, but resistance may be firming up.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 11:18:18 AM

For what it's worth as of the beginning of this month's op-ex week, current maximum pain options expiration values include QQQQ 37, OEX 560, DJX 105, SPX 1190, NDX 1500, MSFT 24.5 and GE 35. I've found that these levels are often hit-or-miss, but find myself looking them up every month just the same.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 11:14:45 AM

Pivot Matrix for this week at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 11:09:27 AM

OEX Keltner resistance near 563.34-563.97 is about to be tested. The 60-minute 100/130-ema's are at 563.64-564.53. The daily 100-ema is at 564.68, so there's lots of potential for resistance through here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 11:09:22 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 11:05:00 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link . Note the drop in volume and the stall in price. 7200 tick SMA resistance is down to 36.59 here, with a so-far corrective short cycle upphase in progress.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 11:02:54 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 10:56:06 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $42.67 -2.44% ...

Tab Gilles : 4/11/2005 10:55:26 AM

$BKX.X Bank Index Topped out in 2004, note negative divergences. Current H&S pattern and neckline. A break below 95 would be bearish signal. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 10:53:15 AM

Session high for ZN bond futures, with TNX -3.3 bps at 4.458% here.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 10:52:22 AM

From the look of the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart, we're about to get a test that should give us more information. Resistance is trying to firm and so is support and they're ringing the current OEX position. I wouldn't be surprised to see some sideways trading ahead of a break of one or the other, or just a break. Support (on 15-minute closes) is trying to firm first at 562.65 and then at about 561.65 and resistance from 563.35-563.92.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 10:52:11 AM

QQQQ 100-tick update at this Link . Despite its 15 cent loss here, OEX is currently 11 cents in the green. QQQQ so far appears to be lagging its S&P peer. On Friday, the SPX broke the previous day low while QQQQ did not, only doing so this morning. OEX is fractionally positive. Unless QQQQ breaks the 36.40 level from here, my guess is that it will continue to work its way higher off the low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 10:51:43 AM

Dell Computer (DELL)

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 10:46:30 AM

So far again, resistance holds on the OEX. Keltner support is trying to cup up under the OEX's candles, and resistance and support look about equally weighted.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 10:44:29 AM

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) $118.13 +0.11% ... just noticing the SPY has come back, and slightly below the $118.17 level where large block trades were noted.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 10:40:49 AM

Gold and silver are holding their gains, but the gold and silver equity indices are down today, HUI -.07% at 198.86 and XAU -,08% at 92.82. Currently, Nymex crude is -.60 at 52.725.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 10:38:20 AM

Well, I'm not going to feel so bad about missing "the" test of important resistance on the OEX because it might not have been the only one. Right now, the OEX tests first 15-minute Keltner resistance, with stronger Keltner resistance from 563.37-563.94. Current bears want to see 15-minute Keltner closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 562.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 10:36:32 AM

QQQQ bounces to test 36.55 resistance here, volume climbing along with price.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 10:31:06 AM

The OEX is back above the 4/06 LOD. Test of the 562.77 Keltner resistance coming up. Support is again trying to firm. Will the stabilization I expected earlier come now? Resistance now gathering overhead, up to 563.98 looks firm, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 10:29:24 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link with the 30 and 60 min channels pointed lower in unison. First light confluence resistance is at 36.55, followed by stronger resistance at 36.60, just below declining 7200 tick SMA resistance at 36.63.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 10:29:07 AM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner channel shows that at its LOD, the OEX pierced a channel line, but it's bounced back above it, erasing the breakdown signal. As long as the OEX cannot produce 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 562.75, it's vulnerable to more downside. A close above that level just stabilizes the smaller channel a bit but doesn't necessarily turn it higher. Currently, that might require a 15-minute close above resistance gathering from 563.38-564.05.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 10:25:31 AM

The OEX has dropped below the 4/06 low, suggesting that it might be dropping toward the bottom of its ascending regression channel, with support for that channel at about 560. (See my first OEX-related post this morning.) I should have read my own first OEX-related post more closely, because we got the test needed, internals weren't particularly bullish (although not particularly bearish, either) and the OEX rolled down again. I just expected a little longer of a testing period. Bears should have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of 560, if it should be touched. A break below the channel might suggest a break of the potential bear flag. Bears should be prepared for the possibility that this is a stop-running move, too, though. If the OEX should bounce hard and quick, that might be a distinct possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 10:22:49 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 10:22:19 AM

30 and 60 min channel support have been broken on the sharp QQQQ drop: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 10:18:49 AM

Ten year bonds are back to the highs, breaking Friday's high with ZN up to 109 31/64 here. TNX is down 2.5 bps at 4.466%, retesting the breakout zone from Thursday on the daily chart. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 10:18:33 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 10:17:35 AM

The TRAN has now dropped to/slightly below the bottom support of the descending regression channel on its daily chart. Without a quick pop higher, it's susceptible to dropping more precipitously.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 10:14:45 AM

The RLX is dropping beneath its 200-sma, an ominous sign for markets if it continues, I believe. It has not yet violated the 3/24 low of 420.82, however, confirming the drop. It's at 421.90 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 10:11:25 AM

The OEX is attempting to steady just above 562. Not sure yet it will happen, but I can't shake this feeling that the resistance test is not yet concluded. This is just one of those "gut" feeling things, though, that might or might not have any basis in subtle clues I'm getting. Perhaps that was just my bias coming into the day getting in the way. I wouldn't have been surprised to see a downturn beneath that resistance that began any time about now on, but not from a first tentative test that was quickly slapped back.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 10:09:51 AM

QQQQ has broken Friday's low, testing 60 min channel support. If 36.60-.65 holds as resistance for another 10 minutes or so, it should cause the 30 min cycle to whipsaw to the downside- a very bearish development should it occur. More likely, however, would be for the current nominal new low to hold as the 60 min cycle completes its downphase.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 10:09:33 AM

NASDAQ Internals ... a/d 1139:1307 ; NH/NL 10:33.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 10:08:59 AM

NYSE Internals .... a/d 1259:1363 ; NH/NL 15:16

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 10:06:42 AM

Was that first test of the 60-minute 100/130-ema's the bounce-and-rollover test? Could be, but it's still possible that support is going to hold, too. If that was it, the only new bearish entry that will be offered, I will have been surprised because I'd thought we'd likely see a more thorough testing of that resistance.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 10:02:40 AM

The OEX is just stuck. I'm wondering if it won't sit for a while longer until Keltner resistance softens above the current position and it can rise a little further or at least consolidate a little longer. Much depends on whether it keels over beneath the 4/06 low of 461.92.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 10:01:29 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 10:00:37 AM

QQQQ has dipped below the 7200 tick SMA, but the 30 min cycle continues to point north. Current channel support is at 36.60, and a break or persistent test of that level should stop the upphase and turn the cycle back down. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 9:55:17 AM

Resistance continues to hold on the OEX's chart, with that Keltner resistance echoing that of the 60-minute and daily 100/130-ema's. Fifteen-minute support looks relatively firm, too, though, with that support at 562.02-562.17. Nevertheless, until and unless the OEX can begin producing 15-minute closes above 563.43, it looks vulnerable to more downside.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 9:55:08 AM

The Fed's open market desk has announced a 3B overnight repo with nothing expiring today, for a net add of 3B.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 9:54:58 AM

VIX.X 12.13 -3.88% ... Daily Pivot Levels ... 11.17, 11.86, Piv= 12.20, 12.89, 13.23.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 9:53:46 AM

TRIN 1.07 -20.14% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 0.43, 0.89, Piv= 1.18, 1.64, 1.93.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 9:50:43 AM

The OEX is again testing the mid-channel level on its 15-minute chart, after being unable to close above that level during the last 15-minute period. That mid-channel level is currently at 563.43.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 9:47:09 AM

So far, 563.70-564.60 resistance is holding on the OEX. The advdec line has dropped somewhat, too, but I'm not sure the testing of resistance is over.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 9:44:00 AM

QQQQ has pulled back to test the 7200 tick SMA, current session low 36.69. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 9:36:35 AM

Bonds have pulled back from their highs, with TNX up to a .6 bp loss at 4.485%. The indices remain firm, however, holding just off the highs.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2005 9:36:17 AM

Program Trading Levels for Monday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+4.28 and set for program selling at $+1.77.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 9:36:09 AM

The OEX has risen to test the mid-channel level on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner channel, with this level being potential resistance. If the OEX can manage 15-minute closes above the line currently at 563.44, next nearby resistance on 15-minute closes is at 564.32-564.49.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 9:33:31 AM

The OEX rises again into the 60-minute 100/130-ema's at 563.67-564.55.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 9:32:40 AM

As the futures' reaction to overseas losses predicted might happen, markets rise early this moring. The OEX is slapped back immediately from its test of the 60-minute 100-ema, but rises right back again to retest it. Some volatility this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 9:32:33 AM

QQQQ 100-tick update at this Link with intraday bulls challenging declining 60 min channel resistance right here at 36.80. The 30 min cycle remains bullish above 36.67.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 9:30:04 AM

Checking the OEX's 60-minute chart shows that a rise into the 563.70-564.60 level this morning will constitute a retest of the 60-minute 100/130-ema's and also will constitute a possible right-shoulder formation for a H&S that might be building. If the OEX should rise toward 563.70-564.60 this morning, bulls and bears alike will want to see whether the OEX flattens and then rolls down into a right shoulder or rises higher, invalidating the potential H&S. Keep a close watch on internals today.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 9:25:17 AM

A 30 min cycle upphase has kicked off for QQQQ, with the oscillator turning up from oversold. The 60 min cycle continues to point lower, opposed to the 30 min and daily cycle, which is also pointed north and just approaching overbought territory. I'd guess that the opposition of the intraday cycles will yield a sideways up-phase/chop zone for the morning, but provided that Friday's lows don't get broken, the chop should resolve itself to the upside.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 9:14:49 AM

Gold and silver are off their highs but still gree, with June gold trading 430.20 and silver 7.291. The USD Index is recovering off a low of 84.10, but still holding the bulk of Friday's and last night's losses: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 9:10:46 AM

PG has just announced a 12% dividend hike, from 25 cents per share to 28 cents per share, to be paid on May 16 to shareholders of record on April 22.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 8:50:12 AM

Ten year notes are lower by 1.9 bps now at 4.476%. Daily chart updated at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 8:48:10 AM

Here's a view of the OEX's daily chart: Link What's missing from this chart, because the chart is already complex enough, is the presence of the OEX's 200-ema and -sma's, at 557.56 and 553.95. Those averages prompted the OEX's bounce, and could support it again.

For now, it looks as if the OEX may work itself down toward the bottom of its flag, with that support now near 560. That decline may be preceded by a bounce back up toward 563.60-564.00, the midline of the regression channel and also the location of 60-minute 21/100/130-ema's. If such a bounce might occur before a touch of 560, bears might look for an opportunity for a rollover play if internals look supportive of such a play.

What happens if the OEX drops to 560, the support of the rising regression channel? Bears might have profit-protecting plans in place for that test. Within that channel, the formation itself looks like a potential inverse H&S, so some might be encouraged to buy that dip. With the OEX remaining beneath the 38.2% retracement much less the 50% retracement, I don't know that I'd be one of those.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 8:40:32 AM

InFocus (IF) has warned, revising its expected EPS to a 30-35 cent loss for the quarter, or 19-24 cents excluding restructuring charges. Analyst expectations had been for a 4 cent per share profit. Revenue is expected between $136M and $138M, compared with prior expectations of $150M to $160M, with gross margins estimated at 7-8% compared with prior estimates of 16-18%. IF is currently halted, with IB reporting a last trade at 5.55.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 8:21:10 AM

Ten year treasury yields are quoted lower by .7 bps at 4.484% currently despite ZN futures ticking negative here.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 8:08:10 AM

Session low for ZN bond futures here, down to unchanged at 109 11/32. Gold and silver are at session highs, June gold +2.8 at 431.50, May silver +.099 at 7.264.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/11/2005 7:35:04 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1185.5, NQ 1497, YM 10487 and QQQQ +.09 at 36.73. Gold is up 2.50 to 431.20, silver +.075 to 7.24, ten year notes +.0625 at 109 13/32 and crude oil -.525 at 52.80.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today.

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2005 6:53:05 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei posted a triple-digit loss, and other Asian markets declined, too. European markets are negative, although many are off opening lows. Our futures nevertheless are modestly positive this morning. As of 6:11 EST, gold was up $1.60, and crude, down $0.52, to $52.80. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei opened in the red, dropped to triple-digit losses and then consolidated for the rest of the morning. It drifted slightly lower through the afternoon, closing down 129.11 points or 1.09%. Oil-related issues led early declines, as did those that depend on sales to China. Over the weekend, articles detailed anti-Japan demonstrations in China, with Japanese businesses targeted for those demonstrations. Another negative influence was a warning by chip manufacturer Elpida Memory Inc. after the close Friday. Techs helped lead the Nikkei lower.

Other Asian markets turned lower, too. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.74%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.63%. Singapore's Q1 GDP fell at a greater-than-expected 5.8% rate. Economists had expected a 0.5% decline, but a cut in production by electronics and pharmaceuticals manufacturers helped produce that greater-than-expected decline. The decline threw doubt on the government's projection for the 2005's growth. The Straits Times was almost flat, however, losing only 0.2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined only 0.5%, but China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.60%.

European markets trade in the red, too, although many now climb off their opening lows. In France, February's industrial output excluding construction fell 0.5% over the previous month's, but still rose for the three-month period including February when compared to the year-ago period. Ex-energy, food and construction, February's number fell 1%. Energy was the only sector seeing a rise in production. This number disappointed. Also in the U.K., Tony Blair today began his campaign for a third term.

Another negative influence in Europe was Friday's warning by Ford, with European car manufacturers helping to lead Europe's bourses lower. EU and US officials met over the weekend to hammer out an acceptable level of subsidies to Airbus to avoid any dispute being brought before the World Trade Organization's arbitration panel. Another positive influence was Philips Electronics, gaining ahead of its earnings report after J.P. Morgan added the company to an Analyst Focus list. U.K. supermarket retailer Tesco also gained ahead of its earnings report with speculation that it would open new stories in Central Europe. Analyst firm CSFB benefited Commerzbank by upgrading the stock to a hold rating, but sent Sanofi-Aventis lower by downgrading it to a neutral rating from its previous outperform rating. Merrill Lynch upgraded U.K. airline EasyJet, and that company's stock was gaining in early trading.

M&A activity this Monday morning included a newspaper report that the Bank of Scotland considers taking a stake in the Bank of China. Last week, the Bank of Scotland said that it wanted about a 20% stake. Barclays dropped in early trading after confirming that it was negotiating for a stake in Italian carmaker Fiat's Iveco Finance unit.

As of 6:42 EST, the FTSE 100 had declined 14.80 points or 0.30%, to 4,968.68. The CAC 40 had fallen 11.56 points or 0.28%, to 4,112.73. The DAX was lower by 3.88 points or 0.09%, to 4,396.80.

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