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Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 1:33:45 AM

Candle Questions ... I received a question regarding Tuesday's candle on the NQ. I'm not a "candle sticker," but another writer in the MM might be able to answer. Questions: Would you explain the daily candle of the QM? Is that an inverted hammer? Does this need another day to confirm? Etc.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 12:58:53 AM

NDX stocks that were bought the most during Tuesday's buy programs were FISV Link LAMR Link CTXS Link GENZ Link NXTL Link ADSK Link CSCO Link AMGN Link .

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 12:53:20 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.82 and set for program selling at $+1.48.

OI Technical Staff : 4/12/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 6:17:09 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 5:53:06 PM

According to HL Camp & Company .... buy programs were at 2:04, 2:10, 2:11, 2:16, 2:17, 2:18, 2:21, 2:22, 2:42, 2:43, 2:47, 2:55, 2:56, 3:02, 3:03 and 3:33 EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 5:46:52 PM

Once I get some intra-day chart, I'll update tomorrow's DAILY Pivot matrix. There were a lot of "bad ticks" (high/low) in today's session.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 5:43:21 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 5:07:35 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 4:51:21 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Today's Activity ... Day traded short shares of Microsoft (MSFT) at $24.95, could do no better than $24.88, and was stopped out at $25.05. ($-0.10, or -0.40%)

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 4:02:48 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $105.02, SPY $118.70

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 3:57:24 PM

The last time the OEX hit the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the year's high, bears who automatically entered at that level were treated to a nice downside move. Of course, the move up to that 38.2% retracement was corrective that time and it was anything but today. The rising regression channel's resistance line is now rising to meet the 50% retracement level, with that level at about 571, so it wouldn't be impossible for the OEX to reach that high and still remain within its possible bear flag. Last time, the upper channel resistance and the 38.2% retracement nearly converged. The 15-minute chart is showing those gravestone doji and the 60-minute is likely going to produce a doji at the top of a climb, but there's little other evidence of a downturn in the making. For those who like to hit a retracement level with an entry, this afternoon's test of the 567.26 level might be it, but I just can't assess the likelihood that the OEX would go on and test the 50% level. I just don't know here. I would have felt pretty good recommending a bearish play on the 8th and again yesterday to carry through to today, but I just don't know here. Staring at the chart, it looks like a good setup with a tight stop, but will there be a gap higher tomorrow?

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 3:53:27 PM

SOX still -.16% here at 412.97.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 3:50:57 PM

Unless my data is incorrect- the TRINQ at .12 (currently) is too far from the .92 TRIN reading. I don't think even the WCOM blowout day generated sustained readings this low.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 3:47:42 PM

QQQQ's done 135M shares' volume now, going for a double of yesterday's volume. The Nasdaq TRINQ is at an astounding .11 reading. While that's normally a contrarian "overbought" reading, this sensitive indicator also behaves this way when a major wave of buying is at hand- recall the day-after-day .20-.30 TRINQ readings at the October 2002 low. It's early to interpret this that way, however- for the moment, it's showing extreme buying pressure that normally would be unsustainable.

QQQQ has reversed from 36.74, still below yesterday's opening high. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 3:44:27 PM

The OEX might be on the verge of printing another gravestone doji during this 15-minute period. The OEX might be climbing, but these gravestone doji suggest a need for a pullback to support, at least.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 3:39:34 PM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $36.73 +0.65%, JDSU $1.50 +2.04%, CSCO $18.28 +1.61%, SPY $119.03 +0.79%, INTC $23.20 +0.38%, MSFT $25.33 +1.44%, EBAY $33.39 -1.67%, ORCL $12.50 +0.88%, SMH $32.16 -0.18%, SUNW $4.07 +0.49%

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 3:39:10 PM

Sometimes I believe that we don't pay enough attention to the RLX. Today, the RLX dropped through its 200-sma before reversing and bouncing strongly ahead of tomorrow's look at March retail sales. Some expect a stronger month for auto sales will help lift retail sales while weather-related issues might lead to a slump in apparel sales.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 3:33:08 PM

The bounce from 2PM resulted in a vertical upside break of the declining channel from Friday's opening high for QQQQ, and has the oscillators beginning their upphase with the slower 60 min cycle barely picking itself up out of oversold territory. The daily cycle has reversed what yesterday was a slight downtick in its upphase, and so currently all intraday and daily cycles point north. While this meltup feels like it has gotten ahead of itself, the cycle consensus will be to the upside until the oscillators change their bias. For QQQQ, a break below 36.40 would be the minimum necessary to turn the 30 min cycle lower, while for the 60 min channel, 36.30 would be first, with confirmation on a break of 36.20.

Note that despite the amazing vertical launch, yesterday's high hasn't been broken, and we had a lower low today as well- the second consecutive day of daily cycle upphase violations. If the bulls can't print a bullish engulfing above yesterday's high at 36.78, then my guess would be that this steep, sharp meltup will likely be only an intraday corrective bounce for the intraday cycles as the daily cycle upphase begins its downward turn.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 3:31:55 PM

During the last 15-minute period, the OEX avoided creating the tall red candle that would have completed an evening-star pattern.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 3:30:02 PM

Time to look at potential support levels again on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart: Unfortunately, the lines are still somewhat scattered and disorganized after the big zoom higher, but next support is from 564.33-564.90. Bulls don't really want to see a decline below that on a 15-minute closing basis, because such a close would erase the breakout signal on that chart. As long as the breakout signal is maintained, the upside target is 568.10.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 3:22:58 PM

The last period's 15-minute Keltner channel was a gravestone doji. Bulls don't want to see a reversal of the gains, so don't want to see a tall red candle during this 15-minute period.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 3:20:06 PM

My feeble attempt at humor, Marc.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 3:19:08 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 358.35 +1.38% ... sector winner and WEEKLY R1.

Keene Little : 4/12/2005 3:18:31 PM

LOL, I know EXACTLY what you mean Linda.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 3:18:23 PM

Major indices should close at highs of session after coming back through (above) daily pivots.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 3:16:31 PM

Maria is talking in that excited voice and Joe Battipaglia was just a guest on CNBC. I don't know about you, but that brings back uncomfortable memories. Makes me want to short something. Smile.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 3:13:44 PM

QQQQ update at this Link , pulling back from 36.67. The short cycle stochastics, TRIX and Macd show slight bearish divergences, suggesting a test of 36.47 (7200 tick SMA support) is likely. A break of that level, should it occur, would stall the so-far steep 30 min cycle upphase.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 3:12:00 PM

The OEX's 30-sma is currently at 568.03 and the 50-sma is at 570.22. The 50-sma doesn't appear to have had much relevance on the OEX over the last few months, but the 30-sma sometimes has.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 3:08:41 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 3:08:40 PM

I've been waiting until Keltner lines settled down a bit before I posted information on what the 15-minute chart shows. Currently, the OEX has created a breakout signal with a tentative upside target of 568.06, but I'd be watchful of potential resistance near Friday's early morning high, too, with that high at 567.02. Support tries to firm near 564.20-564.50, but it's difficult to assess how firm it is at the current time. Support below that is somewhat muddled still. If in short-term bullish positions, I'd have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of 567-568, if approached.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 3:05:26 PM

QQQQ is working on 36.66 resistance now: Link . The 30 min cycle maintains its upside bias above the 7200 tick SMA, rising steeply to 36.45 here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 3:02:09 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 3:00:59 PM

Here's where the OEX is with respect to its rising regression channel (bear flag?) and the retracements off the year's high. I've removed all the MA's for clarity: Link Nothing yet says definitively that this isn't a bear flag, so be careful in bullish positions, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 3:00:06 PM

Advancing volume now leads declining volume 1.6:1 on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq. QQQQ volume is up to 116M at 3PM compared with yesterday's 71M total.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 2:55:57 PM

Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,186.42, DIA $104.95, QQQQ $36.63

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 2:54:51 PM

Today's short-covering rally in the dollar against the yen was a straight-up rise, too, but when the short-covering stopped, the dollar collapsed back to the level at which it had traded prior to this morning's 8:30 releases, where it is now. That can happen in equities, too, so bulls need to be as careful to protect profits as bears needed to be earlier.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 2:55:08 PM

Bonds have increased their gains, ZN now up to 110 1/4, with TNX down 8.8 bps, a 1.98% change for the day, at 4.357% with 7 minutes left to the cash session. QQQQ is now testing 36.60, the start of confluence to 36.66. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 2:50:03 PM

QQQQ $36.56 +0.21% (if my quotes are correct) ... incredible! Back to WEEKLY/DAILY Pivot correlations. Break above could bring wave of short covering.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 2:49:41 PM

The OEX rises higher through its rising regression channel, with that channel topping out at about 567.40, at least the way my charting service snaps the channel on the 60-minute chart. It's also pressing into the top level acceptable as a right-shoulder level for a potential continuation-form H&S on the 60-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 2:45:55 PM

The BIX, of course, zoomed after the minutes were released. It's headed up toward the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the late-December high, with that 38.2% retracement at about 358.32. The BIX is currently at 356.86. Might be a test to watch.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 2:44:35 PM

QQQQ melting up here, a vertical move. 36.60-.66 resistance is now in play.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 2:43:14 PM

Upside break of prior resistance for QQQQ: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 2:41:04 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 7.4 bp at 43.71, or 4.371%. Pacholder (PHF) $8.99 (unch) ... $8.93 (300) x $8.99 (800)

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 2:36:56 PM

May crude oil went out -3.68% at 51.725, 1 tick above the 51.70 low.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 2:36:13 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link with volume already exceeding yesterday's and the average, with 99.6M shares traded so far. QQQQ failed at the overnight high, but is bouncing from above 36.25, a higher low. Current 30 min channel resistance is up to 36.50 if it can clear the 36.40 line.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 2:33:58 PM

The OEX pauses at 60-minute and daily Keltner resistance, at the midline of the rising regression channelin which it's been rising since late March and at the 60-minute and daily 100/130-ema's.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 2:33:49 PM

TRIN 1.10 +7.84% ... session low was 1.00 even.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 2:33:27 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $25.07 +0.40% .... QQQQ $36.30 -0.52% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 2:32:08 PM

I have no intra-day charts available ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 2:31:26 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.48 (unch) ... breadth vastly improved at 18:12. Components at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 2:29:42 PM

The OEX is now approaching the appropriate right-shoulder level for a continuation-form H&S on its 60-minute chart, with that right shoulder level extending up to about 565. I don't particularly trust continuation-form H&S's and I thought bears were living on borrowed time for short-term plays, too, but this is also being reached as Keltner resistance on the 60-minute and daily charts are being tested and as the 60-minute and daily 100/130-ema's are being tested, too. Bulls now need to have plans in place to protect profits, in case the OEX now flattens.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 2:27:25 PM

Daily TNX chart update, with TNX now down 7.1 bps at 4.37%, breaking the prior low: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 2:25:05 PM

Breadth is recovering fast, with declining volume now exceeding advancing volume by a mere 1.28:1 for the NYSE and 1.4:1 for the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 2:24:52 PM

Before we get too carried away with cheer, note that the OEX is still below the daily 21/100/130-ema's, with those averages at 564.15, 564.63 and 562.59 (moved above this as I prepared the post), respectively, and that it's still within a potential bear flag on the daily chart and that it's still below a 38.2% retracement of the decline off the March high (at about 567.26), much less a 50% retracement. Nice move today for the bears (if you adhered to your profit-protecting plans) today and now a nice move for the bulls, too, but this could still be a countertrend move. Maybe is, maybe isn't, but nothing's been proven yet that says otherwise.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 2:24:01 PM

TRIN 1.01 -0.98% ... VIX.X 12.19 +1.75% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 2:22:57 PM

ZN futures have broken 110, currently up .484 at 110 7/64, with TNX down 5.1 bps to 4.394%, a -1.15% change for the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 2:21:14 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link . Volume has picked up strongly, and the upside keltner violations are being met with more buying, a sign of impulsive strength pressing the channels higher out of their bearish funk. 36.40 is next resistance, followed by the key daily cycle line at 36.66.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 2:21:08 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) plunging 4.5 bp to 44.00 or 4.40%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 2:19:01 PM

Bearish day trade stop alert ... for Microsoft (MSFT) $25.05 +0.35%

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 2:15:59 PM

The OEX's 60-minute 21-ema is at 561.79. That's been resistance for the OEX since 4/08. The 60-minute 100/130-ema's are above that, at 563.15 and 564.00, respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 2:15:00 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 354.93 +0.41% ..

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 2:14:29 PM

That last buy program premium was a dinger. Jumped to 6.65.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 2:14:19 PM

The OEX is now testing the decline off Friday's high. It pierced it, but then fell back again.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 2:13:55 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 2:12:21 PM

Session high for ten year treasuries, TNX down 3.1 bps at 4.414% here. Updated daily chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 2:11:10 PM

QQQQ breaks above the descending triangle apex, testing 36.20 from below. A short cycle has kicked off on a number of high-volume buy candles, and above 36.30-.35, a new 30 min upphase should be starting as well.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 2:10:49 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,176.20, DIA $104.19, QQQQ $36.23

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 2:08:47 PM

The reaction has punched the OEX up through the 15-minute Keltner resistance. It hasn't closed the 15-minute period above that resistance and hasn't yet even hit the descending trendline off Friday's high, at about 561, but bears need to be enacting their profit-protecting plans, whatever they were.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 2:08:37 PM

A tall bad tick from QQQQ just printed to 36.90. Quotetracker users can delete the tick (and repair the damage it causes to short term indicators) by clicking on the chart and pressing ctrl-shift-h until it disappears.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 2:05:27 PM

Sharp bounce for QQQQ, testing triangle support from below: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 2:04:15 PM

FOMC minutes at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 2:03:52 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $103.82, SPX 1,173.17, SPY $117.37, QQQQ $36.08.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 2:02:48 PM

Ten year bond yields are up .6 bp to 4.451% following the news, QQQQ hit a low of 35.99 and is bouncing again to 36.05.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 2:02:33 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 2:01:51 PM

US March budget deficit 71.2B vs. 69.8B exp., prior revised from 72.9B to 72.7B.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 2:01:02 PM


04/12/2005 14:00 *DJ FOMC: 'Odds' Of Faster Rate Hikes Has 'Increased'

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 1:59:53 PM

IBM (IBM) 85.23 -1.12% ... session lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 1:57:45 PM

Ten year bonds have given back their gains ahead of the 2PM data, TNX up to unchanged at 4.445%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 1:56:31 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 352.70 -0.21% ... holding tough above their WEEKLY Pivot. Best levels of session here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 1:53:19 PM

SPY $117.27 -0.71% ... 10-minute interval chart at this Link ... would note today's DAILY S2 also at $117.52.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 1:51:43 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link , taking a second bounce from the 36.01 low. Bulls need to break the prior high at 36.07 to get a shot at the broken triangle base at 36.14. There's a bullish divergence in the short cycle TRIX, but beyond that, all intraday cycles continue to trend in oversold territory.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 1:52:20 PM

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) $117.24 -0.71% ... 10-minute interval chart at this

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 1:47:50 PM

Great point Jane has just made about the advdecv line in her 1:46 post. Thanks for clarifying that, Jane. She mentions that although the advdec line has not made a new LOD, the advdecv line has.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 1:46:40 PM

Those in bearish OEX positions need to make a decision now as to whether they'll hold over the FOMC minutes release. It's a tough decision, as it always is. The OEX is being parked near supposedly strong support ahead of that release, ready to go either direction.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 1:44:47 PM

Volume breadth has worsened, with declining volume now leading advancing volume 4.43:1 on the NYSE and 3.78:1 on the Nasdaq. But so far, the intraday and daily channel bottoms have held for the fisrt test on QQQQ.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 1:42:21 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $31.44 -2.39% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 1:42:43 PM

Many equity indices reached new LOD's, but the advdec line did not. On behalf of bears who might have entered on a rollover yesterday, I'm micro-managing here, especially watchful for any signs of bullish divergence. This is one, but since the advdec line is so bearish and since it did at least break through its own supporting trendline off the LOD, I don't know that we should give this undue weight. Just keep it on your radar screen.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 1:41:41 PM

QQQQ $36.07 -1.12% ... sees trade at WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 1:41:07 PM

Bearish Day Trade lower stop alert ... for Microsoft (MSFT) $24.91 -0.24% ... to $25.05.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 1:39:18 PM

Careful, bulls and bears alike. We're approaching the prime stop-running time of day.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 1:38:38 PM

Intraday channel support is violated by QQQQ's drop here- it's do or doo-doo time for the bulls, who should be pushing back. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 1:38:09 PM

Microsoft (MSFT)

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 1:37:19 PM

The OEX tests the double-bottom level intraday. Bears need to see follow-through toward the now-557.10 downside target. Keep following the OEX lower with your stops, at the least.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 1:35:57 PM

Session low for NQ and QQQQ, with ten year bond yields ticking lower to a 1.3 bp loss at 4.432%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 1:35:06 PM

Networking Index (NWX.X) 200.32 -1.30% Link ... testing that psychological 200 level again. Served support on 04/04/05.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 1:32:11 PM

Fifteen-minute Keltner resistance still looks firm; three-minute Keltner support is still strong, but perhaps slightly less so.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 1:36:38 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $18.01 +0.11% ... moves up to #3 among most actives. Giving back some gains after earlier high of $18.30. April "Max Pain" is $17.50 ($2.50 increments)

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 1:31:25 PM

Session lows now, breaking triangle support with an uptick in volume. Channel support is at 36.95, with daily bollinger support for the daily cycle between 35.96-36.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 1:29:28 PM

Bearish view of QQQQ intraday at this Link if bulls are unable to break descending trendline resistance at 36.20 to invalidate the intraday bearish descending triangle.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 1:25:39 PM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 406.19 -1.79% ... "edges" to lows of session here. QQQQ $36.16 -0.87% ... still holds above its WEEKLY S1. Microsoft (MSFT) $24.93 -0.16% ... holding very tough at this point. Session low has only been $24.87. A "bad tick" to $24.80 might become correlative with a QQQQ test of WEEKLY S1.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 1:23:00 PM

Nymex crude is down to 52.475, a nickel off the session low and down 2.28% currently.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 1:21:47 PM

Danger sign for bears. The OEX is not confirming that bear-flag breakdown by a new LOD. Instead, it's finding at least temporary support at the three-minute Keltner support.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 1:18:40 PM

Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) $61.28 -0.92% Link ... breaking below their 200-day SMA ($61.35) for first time since last move above on 10/27/04.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 1:18:29 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link showing a light volume drift lower to 36.16 currently. All intraday indicators are flatlined.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 1:15:02 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 1:13:04 PM

Corn Products (CPO) $21.57 +1.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 1:11:31 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 1:11:01 PM

The OEX breaks below the bear flag, but hasn't confirmed by a new LOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 1:09:32 PM

Ten year treasury yields haven't budged, TNX still down .7 bps at 4.438%. On the daily chart of the TNX Link we see the rising range from 4.4% support. It's either a bear flag or a base forming in the daily cycle downphase. Given the sharp/impulsive rise from the February low and the poor downside traction on the decline from the March high, my guess it that 4.4% support will hold for this downphase. A break of 4.4% or 4.5% should be directional in any case.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 1:04:54 PM

The 10B of 4-week t-bills were auctioned at a high rate of 2.555%, generating a strong bid-to-cover ratio of 3.04 (3.04 bids tendered for each accepted). Indirect bidders took 2.905B of the total.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 1:04:10 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/12/2005 1:04:26 PM

DOW is dropping back in danger zone, below 10 monthly MA.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 1:03:42 PM

So far, 15-minute Keltner resistance holds, but the OEX has not broken through the support of the flag-like formation from which it rose off the LOD, either. I'd give this Keltner resistance more weight than the three-minute support, just because a 15-minute chart is likely more reliable than a three-minute one, but the three-minute one warns bears to be aware that there are signs that bulls are trying to mount some support for the OEX. Still watching for a break one direction or the other.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/12/2005 1:01:20 PM

1 pm turn and volume slowly coming.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/12/2005 12:59:32 PM

Here is the DELL chart, complete with gap close and bullish RSI divergence. It does not get any better, however some possibility of going as low as 37.18, so I would put a stop at 37.15, if objective is longer term: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 12:59:27 PM

The OEX now tests Keltner resistance from 559.25-559.85. Bears want to see 15-minute closes beneath these Keltner lines. The three-minute chart shows what appears to be significant support now at about 558.75, so it may be a standoff for a while yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 12:58:59 PM

Back to find QQQQ unchanged during the past 20 minutes, with the short cycle indicators sliding sideways and directionless. Ten year bonds have firmed slightly, TNX down .7 bps at 4.438%. The auction results should be available within about 5 minutes.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/12/2005 12:52:05 PM

DELL has closed a KEY gap today, dating from November 2004. This is something many tech traders have been waiting for and it has been on my charts ever since then. The bounce there looks real and I would be a buyer of DELL right here, stop below LOD.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 12:45:58 PM

Slowly, slowly, OEX investors send the OEX high enough to test Keltner resistance. It still looks firmer than support, but we're about to find out if that matters or not.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 12:45:46 PM

NVIDIA (NVDA) $22.63 -1.56% ... was a couple of days early on this one. April "Max Pain" $25. June "Max Pain" $22.50.

Tab Gilles : 4/12/2005 12:43:46 PM

$SPX The $NYSI had a few up days then went negative, yet the MACD and StochRSI are signaling upside action. Link

$NASI had 1 day positive, yet it too is giving a mixed signal. Link

$SPX chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 12:41:37 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.99 (unch) ... bid/offer is $8.90 (5,000) x $8.99 (1,400). Did see 7,500 at the bid of $8.90, but 200 and 300 since at $8.99. I'm thinking that 7,500 was a long liquidator, but long from below $8.75. Got his/her monthly dividend and with weakness for equities, taking some capital off the table.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 12:37:41 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) ... updated daily interval bar chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link . One dynamic currently in play is "interest rate" fears. My thoughts currently is that it would take a yield move above 45.00, or 4.50% to see further negative reaction toward equities. Choppy today, but not much going on at this point.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/12/2005 12:37:14 PM

Jeff, over here we hit monthly S2 on YM futures LOD (10363 exactly), I didn't check what the DOW monthly S2 is, but how often does that happen.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 12:34:54 PM

Before I step away, I see that a 4-week t-bill auction is in progress and will be back to report the results when they are released after 1PM. With ten year treasury bonds sliding sideways in fractional positive territory, we can hope for some movement following publication of the auction results.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 12:33:20 PM

The OEX rise off the LOD so far still looks like a bear-flag climb, and Keltner resistance is nearby, from 559.25-559.85, but that resistance may be softening just a bit. We'll soon see.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 12:25:33 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes to nurse a headache.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 12:24:52 PM

Most Actives .... JDSU $1.43 -2.72%, QQQQ $36.18 -0.82%, CSCO $18.22 +1.27%, INTC $22.78 -1.47%, SPY $117.33 -0.64%, EBAY $32.63 -3.94%, MSFT $24.89 -0.32%, SUNW $4.03 -0.49%, AAPL $42.60 +1.62%, SMH $31.68 -1.64%

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 12:20:03 PM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link with QQQQ holding the 7200 tick SMA line, trading both sides of the 37.20. A short cycle upphase is in progress off the lows, but is so far getting very poor traction. QQQQ needs to break 36.30 at minimum to overcome the bearish downside trending action of the 30 min channel.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 12:13:42 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 12:11:04 PM

Resistance still looks strong on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart, but the three-minute is beginning to hint at a different story. Strong Keltner resistance lines are beginning to snake under the OEX's current position, perhaps converting them to strong support. Resistance lines overhead thin somewhat. The formation still looks like a bear flag, and the three-minute chart is less reliable on Keltner's just as it is on other charts, but bears should just keep those profit-protecting plans in place.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 12:12:09 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.90 -1.00% ... breaks below WEEKLY S1 $8.93.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 12:03:31 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 11:59:40 AM

The OEX is rising off the LOD in what appears to be a bear flag on the 15-minute chart, but with strong support so nearly tested, bears have to be nervous, too, and it's nervous bears who would ruin a bearish play. The OEX is rising to test Keltner resistance near 559.50-559.70, with bears wanting to see 15-minute closes beneath that level.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 11:58:14 AM

No buy/sell program premiums (other than sell premium at the opening tick) today. Same story as yesterday (buy premium at the open).

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 11:56:46 AM

Session high for 10-year bond futures at 109 49/64, with TNX now down 1.2 bps at 4.433%.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 11:55:45 AM

QQQQ's now above the 7200 tick SMA for the first time today, with the 30 min channel downphase stalling. A break above 36.30-.33 should be enough to kick off a new 30 min cycle upphase to challenge the stronger resistance lines at 36.40 and 36.66, the key goal for daily cycle bulls. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 11:51:42 AM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 559.10 -0.53% ... 33 most heavily weighted components at this Link . P/L % is from 12/31/04 close, so year-to-date.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 11:44:17 AM

Declining volume is currently triple advancing volume on NYSE, just over double for the Nasdaq. The NYSE TRIN is up to 1.63, while the Nasdaq TRIN is a more neutral .87.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 11:42:32 AM

May crude is back below 53, trading 52.90 currently but not yet revisiting its 52.775 low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 11:41:41 AM

Dow Components sorted by price (price-weighted index) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 11:37:54 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.72 -0.70% ... breadth negative at 28:2. BA $57.99 -2.37%, GM $28.73 -1.74%, DD $49.50 -1.76%, INTC $22.75 -1.55%, JNJ $68.03 -1.24% .... AIG $52.86 +1.45%, PFE $26.47 +0.03%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 11:34:02 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 11:35:16 AM

Session high for June ZN futures here at 109 23/32, with TNX down .6 bps at 4.439%.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 11:30:59 AM

The test of Keltner resistance on the three-minute Keltner chart is still going on. The resistance has so far been holding, but since bears may be living on borrowed time here, I'm still watching. The 15-minute chart shows stronger resistance at about 559.80, but we're not the only ones watching the 200-sma and historical support near 557.60-558.00. We may be among the few who are watching Keltner targets, but right now, they coincide roughly with those other potential levels of support. Those who want to buy the dips will surely be eyeing those levels and may be buying ahead of them. We'll see soon whether that's going to pay off, but we do know already that bears need to keep those profit-protecting plans in place.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 11:30:53 AM

Gold and silver are holding their minor losses, while HUI and XAU have weakened further, HUI now down 1.94% at 194.18 and XAU -1.29% at 91.19. May crude is trading 53.20, -.9%, while the CRB is down .52 at 303.66.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 11:28:51 AM

QQQQ now testing broken confluence support and 7200 tick SMA resistance of 36.20 from below: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 11:25:22 AM

In my 11:24 post, I meant to say that Keltner evidence is not always correct, not now always correct. I'm a fan of Keltner charts, but not that big a fan. Smile.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 11:24:46 AM

VIX.X 12.61 +5.25% ... after dropping to 11.19, has risen to as high as 12.83. Wild, but bound between WEEKLY S1 and WEEKLY Pivot here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 11:23:26 AM

June Crude Oil futures (cl05m) $54.50 -1.08% (30-min. delayed) ... juuust under my 61.8% $54.51 level from bullishly fitted 38.2% retracement. QQQQ would have been trading session low at the time.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 11:24:06 AM

Keltner evidence is not always right, but on the three-minute chart, the resistance just above the OEX's current position still looks strong. We'll find out soon, because the OEX is rising to test it as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 11:16:16 AM

Bonds have gone positive, while crude oil has recovered from its low of 52.775, currently up to a 25 cent loss at 53.45. TNX is down .5 bps here at 4.44%.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 11:16:05 AM

Here's what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart currently shows: Nearby resistance is just above at 558.91, and then again, stronger, at just under 560. Bears would prefer to see that 560 level hold as resistance on 15-minute closes to keep the smaller Keltner channel pointed down toward the downside target, now at 557.28. Those advdec numbers at -3416 are beginning to be a bit scary to bulls and bears alike, with bears needing to keep this on the radar screen in case its extreme levels are a contrarian indicator rather than one supportive of their positions.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 11:12:56 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link Monday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 11:12:54 AM

The Dow's test of its 200-sma at 10,380.26, with the Dow currently at 10,366.17 might be one of the tests to watch.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 11:09:49 AM

The SPX appears to have dropped below the support of its flag-like climb off the 3/29 low. The support for that flag appears to have been at about 1175.90. The SPX might at some time rise to retest that support and see if it holds as resistance, but bears would prefer that it not do so with a strong immediate bounce right back up to that former supporting trendline.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 11:08:03 AM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 11:06:29 AM

This morning, the Russell 2000 tests the 38.2% retracement of the rally off the August low, the 200-ema and the 600 level. It's slipped beneath this year's swing lows, but remains above 600 and the 200-sma at 596.81 as I type. The RUT is at 602.03.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 11:03:48 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 11:00:15 AM

OEX 15-minute Keltner resistance at and just above 560 looks strong. I agree with Keene's statement of a few moments ago, however: don't let a profitable bearish position turn into a losing one. Set your stops appropriately, even if you're electing not to take at least partial profit.

I'm having some connectivity issues this morning. Broadband service is slower than usual, so I'm not always certain that the charts I'm seeing are the most up-to-date ones.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 10:59:06 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.90 -0.28% ... day trader's chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 10:58:35 AM

If current support breaks, the daily cycle channel represented by the 20-day bollinger band has support at 36.00 QQQQ. Even if the cycle is turning down, as I believe it is, a bounce from the bottom of the channel would fit perfectly with the deeply oversold/trending intraday cycles. While price could just plummet through support, the more likely outcome is corrective bounces to fail at lower highs instead.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 10:54:39 AM

OEX bears, keep your profit-protecting plans in mind as the OEX drops toward the 557.60-558.00 zone, deciding whether you want to exit a little ahead of some who might be covering or whether you want to maintain a partial position in case there's a drop below the 200-ema to test the 200-sma. Either decision has its risks: of not participating in further profits or not getting out at the optimal profit. No one decision is right for all traders and all accounts.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 10:51:44 AM

The bounce failed as I was typing, back to the lows again: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 10:51:10 AM

QQQQ is bouncing from the double bottom at 36.15, but needs to clear the wedge apex at 36.30, above the 7200 tick SMA at 36.25. These look like formidable levels despite the bounce, not to mention the overhang at 36.40. On the bull side, all these intraday timeframes are deeply oversold- but again, it's bearish until price begins to break resistance.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 10:48:17 AM

OEX 15-minute Keltner resistance is now at 559.18, but stronger at 560-560.30, and then somewhat loosely from 561.40-562.78. Bears want to see the 560.30 level hold as resistance on 15-minute closes, although they would prefer that the 559.20 level hold.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 10:46:29 AM

TRIN 1.61 +45.09% ... VIX.X 12.50 +4.34% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 10:45:04 AM

And there's the new OEX LOD. Because we've seen so many broadening formations lately, I'm a little worried about the presence of a broadening formation (flat top, descending lower trendline), but so far, the OEX is acting as Keltner charts suggest it would. Lower support has now descended to 557.36, but I'd be taking steps to protect profits near 557.60-558.00, if they're touched.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 10:44:08 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link with session lows being retested.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 10:42:10 AM

Bearish day trade short alert ... for Microsoft (MSFT) $24.95 -0.08% here, stop $25.10, target $24.71.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 10:41:34 AM

First OEX Keltner resistance appears to be holding, which is what bears want, but they also want to see a new LOD to confirm.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 10:40:02 AM

eBay (EBAY) $32.65 -3.82% ... remains weak on brisk volume. 7.97 million shares changed hands in first 30-minutes. WEEKLY S2 $32.60 here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 10:37:38 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 10:34:06 AM

QQQQ is testing descending 7200 tick SMA resistance here, breaking above what might be bullish rising triangle support. However, the break is sufficiently gradual/quiet that I'm doubting the triangle interpretation. A break below rising support could constitute a failure of a bear wedge, projecting back to the session lows: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 10:32:00 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $31.79 -1.30% ... still below its WEEKLY S1 ($31.87)

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 10:31:04 AM

SOX.X 408.70 -1.21% ... first to trade WEEKLY S1 (408.28)

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 10:45:21 AM

OEX Keltner resistance lies at the current 559.80 level as well as from 560.41-560.90, and then closer to the 562-563 zone. For now, resistance still looks stronger than support.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 10:20:05 AM

Crude oil hit a low of 53.10, currently a nickel above it. Ten year bonds are drifting sideways just south of unchanged, with TNX holding a .9 bps gain at 4.454%. Updated daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 10:18:04 AM

Black & Decker (BDK) $87.64 +10% Link ... trade at $85 good enough for triple top buy signal. Power tool maker boosting Q1 guidance and now expects EPS from continuing operations of $1.33 to $1.35, excluding the favorable impact of an insurance settlement, up from its previous guidance of $1.05 to $1.10. A year ago, the company earned 93 cents a share. Analysts expect $1.07 a share.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 10:14:33 AM

Session low for Nymex crude at 53.20.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 10:11:18 AM

Session low for silver here at 7.184, gold down 1.40 at 429. HUI and XAU are both red, -.75% at 196.54 and -.64% at 91.79 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 10:09:30 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 10:08:35 AM

7200 tick SMA resistance is down to 36.35. If QQQQ breaks it, the 30 min cycle downphase will stall. However, there's light resistance at 36.30, and much heavier resistance at yesterday's 36.40 low. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 10:08:10 AM

According to my charting source, the advdec level is -2853 issues, approaching an extreme level. We could see declines all day, but this warns bears to be cautious about protecting profits, just looking at it from a contrarian viewpoint.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 10:04:44 AM

The OEX isn't managing much of a bounce yet, but that 559.50 level is appearing to be important in its efforts to steady at least. I just remembered a period when it seemed to have more relevance to OEX trading patterns than 560 did, but I can't remember why or when. Right now, resistance still looks stronger than support on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart, but perhaps the OEX is preparing for a test of resistance. Bears would prefer that test fail from 560.54-561.20.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 10:02:15 AM

The TRAN is below 3600. Friday, the TRAN plummeted beneath an ascending trendline that had been in place since last August. At some point, we should expect the TRAN to rise and retest broken support, but I've been watching the TRAN for weeks now, thinking it was topping out, perhaps in a major way, so I'm not sure that I'd expect the TRAN to make it back above that former support when it does attempt that retest.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 10:02:08 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 10:01:13 AM

May crude oil is down 12.5 cents to 53.575.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 9:59:05 AM

The GHA, the hardware index, is plummeting this morning, currently below 300.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 9:59:05 AM

VIX.X 12.12 +1.16% ... spike higher here. SPX 1,174.90, SPY $117.48, OEX 559.36

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 9:58:20 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link . Old support at 36.20 is holding, following a doji spike to 36.18. The short cycle, 30 and 60 min cycles are all due for a bounce. If the current weakness persists, the extended trending move will be telling us that the daily cycle upphase is history and that a new downphase is causing the intraday cycles to remain pinned in oversold territory. Daily bollinger support is down at 36.00, if current levels fail to hold.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 9:58:12 AM

Another writer may already have noted this, but the Nasdaq again approaches the 50% retracement of the rally off the August 2004 low, with that level at about 1972.40. (It's a snapped bracket, not a calculated one, and so it might be a little off.) This could be powerful support again, as it has been in the past, but it's also looking as if the Nasdaq is attempting to break down from a bear flag it's been forming, with that flag having risen to retest the former symmetrical triangle that the Nasdaq had formed from December through February. Important test this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 9:57:17 AM

TRIN 1.27 +25.49% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 9:55:58 AM

The Fed has announced a 4B overnight repo to replace the 3B expiring from yesterday, for a net add of 1B today.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 9:54:10 AM

It seems that I remember some periods when 559.50-559.60 was more important support than 560 on the OEX. I may be remembering wrong, but I usually have a good memory for numbers, and I seem to remember some periods when this one was important. That means that bears will want to see the OEX soon push through this level.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 9:52:34 AM

Those still in bearish positions should already know what they're going to to if/as 557.60-558 is tested. OEX 557.62 is the 200-ema, Keltner support, and the downside target of the erstwhile H&S on the 15-minute chart. Reaction could come quickly at that level. Will you automatically take partial profit and set the rest of the position at breakeven? Will you automatically take full profit? Will you stay in the whole position but follow the OEX closely with stops? Will you widen stops to allow for a bounce if you believe that the OEX will head lower? Know what you're going to do. Me: I'd probably take at least partial profits if not full (depending on whether the OEX just plowed through that level or stopped there) and set the rest at breakeven or even a little better than breakeven.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 9:51:53 AM

Ten year treasuries are rising off the lows, with TNX down to a .7 bp gain at 4.452%. ZN is up to 109 19/32 here, off the low of 109 1/2.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 9:51:05 AM

VIX.X 11.32 -5.50% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.41, 11.64, Piv = 12.05, 12.28, 12.69. Analysis: Would be thinking major indices find buyers at WEEKLY S1s if tested. Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.00 +0.11% ... especially if "junk bonds" stay up here.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 9:48:08 AM

Breakdown signal completed on the OEX's 15-minute chart. We should probably expect a bounce or consolidation during this first retracement period of the day, with first resistance currently near 560.75 and then 561.68, and much stronger near 562.60-563.00. Bears would prefer that the OEX get stopped at 560.75 or even 561.68.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 9:46:55 AM

QQQQ's first bounce failed, plunging through the previous low to the 138.2% retracement at 36.25. Price is currently below 30 min channel support- barring a bearish trending move, this keltner violation should produce some sort of bounce or sideways move.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 9:44:59 AM

Without a strong bounce in the next couple of minutes, the OEX is confirming a breakdown signal on its 15-minute Keltner chart, with a downside target now near 557.66. Do note that the first retracement of the day usually begins about now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 9:44:34 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $42.55 +1.52% Link ... announces it will begin shipping its Max OS X Server "Tiger" on April 29th, which is a UNIX-based server operating system. The Tiger Server integrates over 100 leading open source projects and standards-based software applications with easy-to-use management tools that make it easy to deploy Mac, Windows and Linux clients.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 9:41:46 AM

QQQQ bounces from lower 30 min channel support, lined up at the 127% fib extension of yesterday's range. 36.40 is first resistance. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 9:40:47 AM

The OEX looks in danger of creating that breakdown signal on this first 15-minute period, but it could still bounce strongly. The most conservative traders among you who might have entered bearish positions on the rollover beneath Keltner resistance yesterday might now consider stepping out of part of the position you entered then, particularly if in front-month (April) puts. Don't let a profit turn into a loss.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 9:40:43 AM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $36.30 -0.49%, VNWI $0.28 +33.33%, INTC $22.90 -0.95%, AAPL $42.47 +1.33%, EBAY $33.28 -2%, SPY $117.72 -0.31%, JDSU $1.47 -0.68%, MSFT $24.91 -0.24%, CSCO $17.91 -0.44%

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 9:38:24 AM

This morning, my broker went down. We have all reiterated from time to time that you have hard "just in case" stops in place, and I can't over-emphasize the importance of taking that step.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 9:33:53 AM

The OEX break through the symmetrical triangle did mean something. It's testing 15-minute Keltner support now. Bears want to see a 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 560.91, setting up a breakdown situation on the Keltner chart, but those who might have entered a bearish position yesterday on a rollover beneath Keltner resistance need to keep their profit-protecting plans in place on this test of Keltner support.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 9:34:52 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators remain oversold and trending, with a slight bullish divergence for the 30 min cycle. Price is holding near yesterday's lows, with the short cycle trying to tick up from the close yesterday. With trending oscillators, false buy signals are the rule until confirmed by a breakout in price. For QQQQ, 36.66 is still the goal, with first resistance at 36.45. QQQQ remains bearish below those levels on an intraday basis. Link On a daily cycle basis, the upphase continues, but yesterday's break of the Friday low suggests that it is in trouble, if not at a premature end. That timeframe is therefore bearish as well with QQQQ below 36.66.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2005 9:28:57 AM

Travelzoo (TZOO) $46.30 Link ... lower at $38.37 in pre-market trade after reporting Q1 results. The publisher of travel offers said it earned $0.11 per basic share and $0.10 per diluted share. The bottom line figures were shy of consensus estimates of $0.14 per share. TZOO said revenue rose 72% to $11.2 million from $6.5 million for the same period last year. Consensus was for $12.5 million.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 9:15:50 AM

Ten year treasuries have ground their way lower, with yields higher by 1.3 bps here at 4.458%.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 8:58:39 AM

The range is anything but narrow for the USD Index, however: Link . June gold is currently unchanged at 430.4, silver -.026 at 7.222.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 8:55:52 AM

Yesterday, the OEX consolidated in a symmetrical triangle on its 15-minute chart, breaking below the triangle's support in the last 30 minutes of trading, but doing so unconvincingly. Convincing break or not, however, the OEX was finding resistance at its 60-minute 21-ema all day, with that average nearly converging with the 60-minute 100-ema at 563.51 and the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the 4/08 high, with that retracement level at about 563.49.

Keltner resistance at 563.14 or so continues to look stronger than nearby support on the Keltner's 15-minute chart, so there continues to be corroboration that the OEX faces significant resistance. Nearby support looks strongest at 561.08, and a 15-minute close beneath the line currently at that level would set up a new downside target near 557.83. Curiously enough, that would have been the approximate downside target of the H&S found on the OEX's 15-minute chart if the formation had produced a right shoulder and then confirmed, so, again, convincing break or not, the possibility must be considered that the break meant something and suggests an eventual downside target near 558. If the OEX fails to break through, the possibility of a right-shoulder formation continues. There's also a rising regression channel visible on the 60-minute chart, top currently near 570, but I don't know that I'd have strong faith in the 570 level being hit with that 563-565 resistance ahead.

Tests of and rollovers from the 563-565 levels, the right-shoulder zone, might continue to offer downside plays, but only for those willing to scalp a few points, because 560-561 might continue to be strong support. On a Keltner breakdown, detailed above, bears should have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of the 558 level.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 8:54:05 AM

Session lows for ES and YM, as well as silver futures. My guess would be speculation that the wider than expected trade deficit will encourage a hawkish stance from the Fed- but then, ten year treasury yields are flat, only +.1 bps at 4.446%. The weakness in equities remains mild, with the pre-data levels not significantly violated. So far, the range is narrow this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 8:36:44 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. trade deficit widened by 4.3% in February to a record $61.0 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. The trade deficit was above the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists of a deficit of $58.5. billion. Imports rose 1.6 percent, while exports were essentially flat. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to $13.9 billion in February compared with $8.3 billion in the same month last year. In February, imports of textiles from China rose 9.8% to $2.08 billion from the previous month. In the first two months of the year, Chinese textile imports are up 62.4% from the same period in 2004.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 8:34:23 AM

Session lows for CAD and Euro futures here at .8101, -.01% and 1.297, -.25% respectively. Gold is down to a 10 cent gain at 430.5, also a session low, with new lows from ES and YM as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 8:32:14 AM

Trade deficit 61B vs. 59B exp., prior 58B revised from 58.3B.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 8:31:42 AM

The trade deficit is out, waiting for the headline. Gold is up to 432, silver 7.305, and equities ticked down but are holding for the moment. Ten year bonds are lightly negative, TNX +.5 vps at 4.45%.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/12/2005 8:35:53 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1182.5, NQ 1484.5, YM 10451 and QQQQ -.07 at 36.41. Gold is up .5 at 430.9, silver +.002 at 7.25, ten year bonds are up .0469 at 109 43/64, and crude oil is up .225 at 53.925.

We await the 8:30 release of the February Trade Balance, est. -59B, and at 2PM, the FOMC minutes from the March 22nd meeting. Also at 2PM, we get the Treasury Budget for March, est. -69.8B.

Linda Piazza : 4/12/2005 7:14:47 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei fell again during the overnight session, and most other Asian bourses dropped, too. European markets show some weakness this morning. Our futures traded in a tight range near the flat-line during most of the overnight session, but dropped slightly a couple of hours ago. As of 6:27 EST, gold was up $0.19, and crude, up $0.19 to $53.98. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Amid reports that the Japanese government is still selling off assets and continued anti-Japan demonstrations in China, the Nikkei opened and fell again Tuesday, this time under the dual impact of a weakening dollar and rising crude prices. The Nikkei closed lower by 75.34 points or 0.64%, at 11,670.30. Tech stocks proved weak. Major banking issues declined as figures showed March bank lending declined 3% from the month-ago level. Bank lending has not seen a month in which the rate rises against the year-ago rate for seven years, one article notes.

Most other Asian markets declined. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.24%, one of the few Asian bourses to gain. L.G. Philips LCD disappointed when it reported earnings Monday after the close, and South Korea's Kospi fell 0.42%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.37%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was nearly flat, down 0.01%. China's Shanghai Composite declined 1.73%.

Most European markets decline. Germany's March wholesale prices rose 0.8% month over month, with an annualized rise now at 3.3%. This number was slightly above some forecasts, with energy costs pegged as a major push behind the rise. Climbing steel prices due to demand out of China and a tobacco tax enacted in December were also named as factors in that increase. Although this number was slightly above expectations, it was not far off, and inflationary pressures were still deemed benign by at least one source. One article in a U.K. newspaper quotes an EU official worried about the impact of falling exports in France, Spain and Italy due, in this official's opinion, to a deceleration of growth in Asia. If growth should also slow in the U.S., this official reasons, a trade catastrophe could result.

Retailers were in the focus with the U.K.'s supermarket Tesco dropping after reporting earnings and department store group Marks & Spencer gaining after posting its earnings. Tesco's earnings were strong, but the outlook was for a return to more usual earnings. In other stock-specific news, bank Fortis declined after reporting plans to acquire a privately owned bank in Turkey. Deutsche Boerse rose after announcing that it will began a planned stock buyback on Wednesday and end the program May 20. Dutch brewer Heineken rose in early trading after it reported a change in the lineup on its board. Publisher Reed Elsevier declined after it confirmed 59 incidences when unauthorized access to personal identifying information was obtained from its LexisNexis business.

As of 7:02 EST, the FTSE 100 had fallen 19.60 points or 0.39%, at 4,953.60. The CAC 40 had fallen 9.71 points or 0.24%, to 4,107.91. The DAX fell 6.92 points or 0.16%, to 4,389.17.

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