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Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 11:03:02 PM

OEX Stocks that were sold the most during Wednesday's sell programs were IBM, GM, DIS, TXN, DD, IP, AVP, MER, DELL, HNZ, RTN, GD, DOW, DIS, NSM, MDT, BHI, AA.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 11:01:17 PM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.80 and set for program selling at $+1.40.

OI Technical Staff : 4/13/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 8:00:50 PM

Eli Lilly (LLY) $57.12 +6.13% ... stock jumped on Wednesday ahead of a federal judge ruling expected tomorrow. The ruling relates to a patent dispute regarding Zyprexa, made by Lilly. Prudential Securities said should the ruling see a favorable outcome, the stock could rise between 5%-10%. However, an unfavorable ruling could see the stock fall by as much as 30%. Prudential maintained their "neutral-weight" on the shares.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 8:24:33 PM

Last ticks in extended session ... AAPL $40.55, AMD $17.55, DELL $37.02, QQQQ $36.06, SMH $31.44.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 7:01:05 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Tab Gilles : 4/13/2005 5:57:35 PM

Some interesting news from Japan, just hitting the wire. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 5:31:59 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $41.04 ... calming down a bit now at $40.61. General pulse seems to be "good quarter."

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 5:04:18 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 4/13/2005 5:07:46 PM

$NAHL Here's an interesting chart looking at the 20 & 100 ema of the $NAHL along with the $BPCOMPQ and $NASI. Shows rewarding entry points. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 8:23:54 PM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $17.06 ... $17.66 after earnings (loss of $0.04 per share vs. consensus of $+0.02. Sales came in at $1.236 billion vs. consensus of $1.21 billion). Also announced it would spin off its flash memory unit in an initial public offering. Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) went out at $31.40 and that's where they trade in extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 4:42:00 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 4:39:09 PM

Apple (AAPL) $40.00

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 4:35:51 PM

QQQQ back to 36.05 after spiking to 36.20: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 4:33:55 PM

AAPL $41.50 ... post-market high/low $41.78-$38.72

Tab Gilles : 4/13/2005 4:33:08 PM

AAPL Earnings out $0.34 vs. $0.24 expected

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 4:31:40 PM

And back up to 40.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 4:31:22 PM

AAPL getting clocked- waiting for the headline number- ticked as low as 38.88 for a second there.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 4:31:45 PM

Here we go! ... AAPL gets active $39.31. Chart from earlier today at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 4:22:46 PM

Please, please, please take a moment to respond to the Market Monitor survey.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 4:19:58 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) went out at $41.04 ... ticking at $41.09 as traders/investors await earnings. Expect VOLATILITY in extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 4:15:58 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link ... Today's Activity ... decided to close out (buy back) the two (2) Semiconductor HOLDRs SMH April $32.50 Calls (SMH-DZ) at the offer of $0.10. These were SOLD for $0.55 on 3/29/05. ($+0.45, or +81.82%). Day traded long 1/2 bullish position in shares of StemCells (STEM) at the offer of $3.52, stopped at $3.47. ($-0.05, or -1.42%). If you usually trade 1,000 shares as a "full position" then 1/2 position would be 500 shares. For those that might trade $10,000.00 as a "full position" then 1/2 position is $5,000.00.

OI Staff : 4/13/2005 4:09:04 PM

ATTENTION ALL READERS: Please help us improve the Market Monitor by answering some questions in our brief survey. Thank You: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 4:05:05 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $103.92, SPY $117.33

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 3:55:27 PM

QQQQ looks to be going out with the 30 min cycle oscillators buried in oversold, the 60 still heading down, and the daily on a preliminary sell signal. QQQQ has held 35.99-36.04 so far, but with the daily cycle rolling over and another lower high for the day, the 30 min cycle upphase due for tomorrow shoudl be weak/corrective. 30 min cycle bulls need to see QQQQ break 36.20-.23 (7200 tick SMA 36.20 currently).

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 3:47:59 PM

Good point, Marc. I believe the "maximum pain" calculation is based on open interest- the daily volume is only daily, and I can't see what the monthly totals are saying.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 3:47:11 PM

The OEX, like the Russell 2000, the SPX, and other indices, has nearly reversed all of yesterday's move, but there's a mighty effort to hold the OEX and those others above yesterday's low, holding them above the total breakdown levels. This isn't good, but take a look at this month-long consolidation pattern and see how many times we've had reversals of one day's move on the next day or within a day or two. I still consider the OEX's rise off the March low a possible/likely bear flag, so I'm not being a cheerleader here, but just saying we can't be oh-so-sure just yet. On the SPX, this looks more like the possible bear flag has broken down than it does on the OEX. Of course, we haven't seen what happens in the last few minutes of the day, have we?

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 3:46:09 PM

IB reports the largest volume in April QQQQ options at the 36 strike, while "maximum pain" options calculation puts the optimal expiry level at 37, for what that's worth. Certainly a Maalox moment for April QQQQ writers here. Both April 36 puts and calls are trading at 20 cents.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 3:43:07 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.85 -1.15% ... with 19 minutes left in today's session, threatens a close below its flattening 200-day SMA ($103.89). A close below will most likely get some chatter from the media and have negative impact on market psychology.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 3:38:37 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 3:36:12 PM

Updated intraday QQQQ chart at this Link with a series of doji spikes to yesterday's low, all reversed on the 3 minute candles. Bulls and bears continue to lock horns.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 3:33:37 PM

The OEX can't seem to steady, but instead just keeps pushing that next Keltner "support" line lower with it. It's verging on creating a new breakdown signal, with a downside target of 556.67, but I somewhat distrust these late-day reactions. I don't distrust the downside that occurred today, just a possible new signal given too near the close.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 3:32:18 PM

Crude oil opens lower, down a dime to 50.125 for the front-month May contract.

Tab Gilles : 4/13/2005 3:31:37 PM

Two week ago I was looking at this SPX chart and H&S patterns. Link

I'm now basically watching to see if support will hold as the 200-ema approaches. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 3:28:46 PM

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Most U.S. companies would get a six-month reprieve from new rules requiring employees' stock options to be counted against profits in a move likely to be made by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The new rules set by the Financial Accounting Standards Board, the nation's accounting rule-maker, call for publicly traded companies to record employee stock options as an expense beginning with their first fiscal reporting period after June 15. The mandate could dramatically reduce the reported earnings of many big companies, especially in the high-tech industry.


Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 3:25:48 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 3:24:01 PM

The OEX heads down toward that 200-ema again, with that average at 557.70 and the 200-sma at 554.11. Depending on what happens into the close, bears may have a difficult decision to make about carrying over, as they're sitting on gains from yesterday's rollover, but the OEX could be sitting on those important MA's. We've been here before.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 3:20:40 PM

Current QQQQ volume is up to 85M shares here, 12.9M short of the average daily volume and 70M shares below yesterday's total. The 30 min cycle oscillators are in oversold territory but have yet to show an uptick. A break of 36.20 should be enough to kick off the upphase, but QQQQ remains bearish at the bottom of today's bounceless decline until it does so.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 3:17:30 PM

The only thing I see "bullish" at the NASDAQ is that today's new highs (36) outnumber yesterday's. With an hour left in trade, new lows (85) are fewer than yesterday's 141.

Tab Gilles : 4/13/2005 3:17:06 PM

$SOX.X Heading for that 400 level. Link Link

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 3:14:09 PM

The OEX tests Keltner support on the 15-minute chart.

Tab Gilles : 4/13/2005 3:10:40 PM

$GOX Ready to test yearly lows. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 3:09:51 PM

The 200% retracement of yesterday's range is at 35.94 QQQQ. Yesterday's low of 35.99, also the 30 min channel bottom, has yet to be touched, with the current low 36.01. 36.10 is now resistance, followed by 36.20-.23.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 3:05:31 PM

VIX.X alert 12.97 +14.51% ... WEEKLY Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 3:04:07 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 3:03:34 PM

Ten year treasuries advanced into the cash close, TNX finishing the day +1.4 bps at 4.374%. The daily doji hammer blew off into doji star, a neutral candle indicating indecision, with an equal rejection at the high and at the low: Link

OI Staff : 4/13/2005 3:03:00 PM

ATTENTION ALL READERS: Please help us improve the Market Monitor by answering some questions in our brief survey. Thank You: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 3:01:57 PM

There should be an OEX steadying or even bounce attempt near 560-560.20, but now look for the Keltner line currently at 562.03 and dropping to be resistance on 15-minute closes.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 3:01:18 PM

QQQQ's 10-day stochastic is already on a sell signal, the first since the daily cycle upphase kicked off in mid-March. If 36.00 support lets go, next daily support is in the 35.50 area.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 3:00:42 PM

The RLX is still below its 200-sma, but still not below yesterday's low.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 2:59:40 PM

The OEX's bear flag support broke, and the OEX heads down to test next 15-minute Keltner support, currently at 560.25. Resistance looks strong near 562.40-563.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 2:59:10 PM

Ten year notes are bouncing again, TNX down to a 1.8 bp gain. But equities continue to sink, QQQQ back to the prior low and ticking below it as I type. Intraday chart at this Link , with 35.99-36.04 support entering the crosshairs.

Tab Gilles : 4/13/2005 2:57:04 PM

MURPHY OIL (MUR) Murphy Oil sees earnings below Wall Street view. Link

Todays chart... Link past charts... Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 2:56:13 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) $37.14 -1.24% Link ... drifting further away from its 200-day SMA ($37.96). Apple Computer (AAPL) $41.12 -3.58% Link ... looks a little extended.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 2:50:34 PM

This consolidation on the OEX's 15-minute chart begins to look like a bear flag rising into 562.50-563 resistance.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 2:48:39 PM

The SOX has now erased all yesterday's gains, but its formation has a bit of a broadening (to the downside) look, so I'm not sure there's a breakout there, either.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 2:45:54 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) $52.13 -2.61% (30-minute delayed) ... I've got session low as $51.90 (02:00-02:05 PM EDT)

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 2:44:14 PM

I'm scanning daily chart after daily chart of the indices, and I see chart after chart where prices remain within the month-long consolidation patterns. Sure, prices have moved down today, but is that really any more significant than prices zooming up yesterday? No telling. There's no breakout on many of these indices yet. Either direction.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 2:43:04 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 2:40:33 PM

QQQQ just broke the prior high, but needs to clear 36.20-.23 to confirm uptick in the trending short cycle oscillators.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 2:36:38 PM

The OEX is trying to consolidate ahead of the 560.45 level that's next 15-minute Keltner support. Keltner resistance gathers near 562.60-563.05 and then again at 563.82.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 2:36:29 PM

Maverick Tube (MVK) $30.65 -3.06% Link ... testing its rising 200-day SMA ($30.37) with session low so far of $30.40. Longer-term bullish support trend also here at $30. Stop firm on 1/2 bullish position at $29 in MM Profiles.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 2:35:00 PM

Session lows across the board, QQQQ to 36.10 just now. The SOX is down 2.50% at 402.77 currently, way ahead of QQQQ's 1.53% loss. QQQQ volume is up to 73.8M, roughly half yesterday's volume. Daily cycle bulls need yesterday's lows to hold.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 2:32:19 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) alert $51.90 -3.04% (30-minute delayed) ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 2:30:35 PM

Dow Components sorted by PRICE at this Link UTX will no longer be most heavily weighted. AA right back at its pre-earnings level of trade.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 2:27:15 PM

QQQQ's short cycle oscillators are trying to turn here, and should print preliminary buy signals on a break above 36.23. The 7200 tick SMA is down to 36.32, which SMA has held back every bounce attempt since this morning. For all but the shortest intraday timeframes, QQQQ remains bearish until that resistance has been broken.

OI Staff : 4/13/2005 2:25:18 PM

ATTENTION ALL READERS: Please help us improve the Market Monitor by answering some questions in our brief survey. Thank You: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 2:25:00 PM

Guess the whole world must be watching crude.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 2:24:18 PM

Nymex crude hit a low of 50.05, currently failing in a bounce off the declining 72 period SMA Link with 7 minutes remaining of the daytime session.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 2:24:05 PM

Crude appears to be delicately balancing on the 38.2% retracement of its rally off its December low, with that Fib level roughly at about $52.19. Since it gapped beneath the rising trendline off that low and the confirmation level for a double-top formation, I don't know how much faith we should put in that balancing act, but equity bulls do not want to see a steadying and then quick ("quick" as would be described on a 60-minute chart) reversal back above those trendlines.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 2:21:09 PM

United Tech (UTX) $101.63 -0.44% ... this most heavily price-weighted component in the Dow Industrials (INDU) announced it will split its stock 2:1. The company's board also approved a regular cash dividend (pre-split) of $0.44 per common share. Both the stock dividend and split will be payable 06/10/05 to shareholders of record at the close of trading on 05/20/05.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 2:17:30 PM

The OEX has now fallen below that descending regression channel off yesterday's high, so that it no longer looks like a possible bull flag. The possibility exists that there could be a quick reversal and this was just a stop-running kind of move, but that's not the way Keltner evidence is lining up just now. Bears need to continue following the OEX lower with their stops, next support at 560.54 currently.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 2:15:37 PM

iVillage (IVIL) $6.22 +1.96% ... session high. Retraces 61.8% of its 01/19/05-02/24/05 decline ($6.90-$5.13)

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 2:14:50 PM

The OEX heads down toward next potential Keltner support on the 15-minute Keltner chart, with that support now at 560.55. Resistance is beginning to firm up now, so that we know where it is, now at about 562.88-563.20. Hmm. Surprise, surprise. Former support now potential resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 2:13:11 PM

QQQQ's sinking back to the lows on declining volume, with the short cycle TRIX as oversold as it's been all day. A bounce here hould take out the last bounce high to 36.23, but a failure, occurring as I type, would be a trending move to target yesterday's session lows. A failure below that will be a problem for the daily cycle upphase, adding 1 more piece of evidence for the top having been printed last week.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 2:12:57 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 2:03:04 PM

Next OEX 15-minute Keltner support is at 560.63, although I have to say that all this jumping around today is keeping those lines skewed in a way that's difficult to interpret. The OEX is, however, below a 50% retracement of yesterday's range, not a great thing to have happen if you're bullish. Some charts suggest a possible decline to 557.60, but don't really allow a ranking of the probability of the OEX reaching that low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 2:02:24 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 2:01:21 PM

Nothing that I see, other than the drop in oil and what is being billed as weak participation from foreign central banks at the 5-yr note auction.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 1:58:32 PM

The RLX is again dropping below its 200-sma, although not yet below yesterday's low.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 1:56:54 PM

I hope some of you bears who might have entered new positions on the test of the 38.2% Fib level yesterday had profit-protecting plans that included holding onto a part of your position as OEX support was tested, allowing you to participate in further gains for the rest, one of the tactics I mentioned. If you were more conservative and opted to take automatic profits in that 562.90-563.70 zone, don't kick yourself--or me--too much. Taking automatic profit at a known support level is a valid profit-protecting method for conservative traders.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 1:56:11 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,564.71 -2.22% ... undercutting yesterday's low (3,568.85)

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 1:56:01 PM

Session low for Nymex crude here at 50.20, -1.65.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 1:55:21 PM

QQQQ has broken below the 60 min channel and has drilled the 30 min channel lower- the bulls should be pushing back, and volume has picked up. A failure of current levels, if it occurs, will target yesterday's low range of 35.99-36.04.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 1:54:16 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 354.20 -1.00% ... back at yesterday's first meaningful "buy program premium" level. Session low here and didn't show much today above WEEKLY R1 (358.07). Was surprised by SIVB's gain.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 1:51:52 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $28.10 -1.81% ... probing yesterday's low ($28.05) and WEEKLY S1 ($28.05)

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 1:50:32 PM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 404.27 -2.14% ... probing yesterday's low (403.20)

Jane Fox : 4/13/2005 1:48:25 PM

Just had a reader ask a very good question about the P&F chart for the $RUT and opened my eyes to a very good short. The $RUT has already broken below the quad bottom and a break of 600 would put it below the support line. You also have an excellent spot for your stop - a P&F buy at 620. Price objective is 560. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 1:47:17 PM

Here comes the test of 36.20 QQQQ, with 30 and 60 min cycle channel support lined up at that level. 7200 tick SMA resistance is down to 36.37.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 1:40:11 PM

Gold and silver are quoted again, gold up to 431.30 here and ZN bonds trading 110 3/32. TNX is climbing faster now, up 3.8 bps at 4.396%. On the daily chart, TNX so far has a bullish doji hammer, with the downside push quickly reversed above fib support at 4.30% The 10-day stochastic is showing a slight uptick on the reversal, though still within its downphase. A closing break above 4.44% should be enough to generate a bullish kiss. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 1:39:38 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert ... for the 1/2 bullish position in StemCells (STEM) $3.47 here

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 1:38:07 PM

The OEX has now hit the 563.20-563.40 level that I suggested might be possible in my first OEX-related post this morning, exceeding it somewhat. Now what? I mentioned then that we'd have to take a look at the Keltner lineup as that level was hit before we could decide, but it's not currently giving as much clarity as I had hoped. The current support level, not holding up as well as might have been expected, is nonetheless stronger looking than nearby resistance, so that a bounce might be expected, with the current lineup not giving much guidance as to whether that bounce might stop. Sure isn't looking as if it wants to bounce yet, though, is it?

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 1:37:19 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,179.32 -0.71% , SPY $117.93

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 1:31:03 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) ... up 2.6 bp at 4.386%

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 1:30:05 PM

Crude oil is holding near its lows, down 2.89% at 50.35 here. TNX is up 2.8 bps at 4.388%. ZN futures are still not quoted, with ECBOT still offline.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 1:26:56 PM

SPY 118.01 -0.57% ... quick move to session low here. WEEKLY Pivot

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 1:25:52 PM

Session lows are breaking here, QQQQ down to 36.29 and retesting the 36.30 low. Channel support is lined up at 36.25 currently, and the short cycle oscillators are printing bullish divergences on the Macd and TRIX. 7200 tick SMA resistance is down to 36.40, above which those divergences would become a new upphase- but so far, the 7200 tick SMA has held back all bounces today.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 1:25:09 PM

OEX investors obviously do not want the OEX to drop toward that 562.93-563.70-ish next Kelner support, but it's still getting there. Bears who have held on since the high near yesterday's close need to be enacting their profit-protecting plans, whether that was to sell the whole position automatically, sell part and lower stops on the rest, follow the OEX lower (while not letting a profit turn into a loss). This looks like strong support being approached, and, as I said earlier, I'm not sure how sustainable the bounce might or might not be.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 1:23:18 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 1:15:38 PM

The 5-year treasury note auction drew a high yield of 4.046% and a weak bid-to-cover ratio of 1.86 on the 15B total. Indirect bidders (foreign central banks) took 4.2B of the total.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 1:13:48 PM

Nymex May crude is -3.04% to a new low of 50.275 here, almost back to halfway to $100 oil.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 1:11:21 PM

Ten year treasury yields have shot up in the wake of the 5-year t-note auction, TNX currently +2.4 bps at 4.384%. I will post the results and then try to correct the problem with my feed.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 1:09:38 PM

All of my ECBOT feeds from IB have just died using the East Coast server. Perhaps it's not my system after all.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 1:08:57 PM

Unless volume has completely fallen off for QQQQ, there's a problem with my charts. Back shortly after a reboot.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 1:06:39 PM

Back. The OEX just push above the descending trendline off yesterday's high. It's immediately coming back to retest that trendline, and bulls don't want to see a push back inside it. Fifteen-minute Keltner resistance at 565.54-565.77 currently still looks stronger than nearest support, at least down to 562.91-563.77, but that may change as the OEX moves.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 1:06:23 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 1:04:48 PM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for 1/2 bullish position in StemCells (STEM) $3.52 here, stop $3.47, target $3.70.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 12:57:28 PM

Brightpoint (CELL) $22.97 +9.64% Link ... new 52-weeker at the NASDAQ comes after yesterday's triple top buy signal at $21. Above average volume so far with 644K changing hands.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 12:53:44 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle downphase is roughly halfway done on the oscillators, while the 60 min oscillators have yet to print a sell signal despite the channel downphase in progress for most of the morning. This distortion is the result of the faster-than-usual meltup yesterday afternoon, and the opposition of key intraday cycles is the likely cause of the very light volume. 60 min cycle bears need to see the 36.20 level break to drag the oscillators down, but so far, the selling has been weaker than yesterday's buying, and it's going to take a lot more commitment than this for bears to have a shot at breaking yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 12:50:35 PM

Franklin Covey (FC) $3.25 +41.3% ... after filing Form 8-K Link ... net income before preferred stock dividends for Q2 2005 up $6.9 compared to the $0.2 million same period last year.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 12:45:54 PM

Digital Video (DVID) $5.95 +73.46% ... percentage gainer.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 12:42:59 PM

Session low for May crude here at 50.375, -2.87%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 12:42:13 PM

Merck (MRK) $35.00 +3.51% ... challenging its trending lower 200-day SMA ($35.26) for first time since 09/08/04 ($46.05)

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 12:37:50 PM

June gold is up 1.3 at 430.80, silver is up 7 cents at 7.219, yet HUI and XAU remain negative, as they have for the past week, currently -1.16% at 194.07 and -.82% at 91.2 respectively. The miners seem to be suggesting that the current rise from this month's low is a bear wedge for gold and possibly a corrective "b" distribution zone within the broader decline from the March high. Daily chart of gold at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 12:37:12 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 12:33:24 PM

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG.X) 325.77 +1.17% ... breaking out to 7-month high! Where's Tab (oil/drug inverse relationship)?

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 12:30:26 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) updated 30-minute interval chart at this Link ... PINK is my bullish fitted 38.2% retracement. A BULLISH bias will still hold among floor traders at this $51.96 level after trace at $58.63. However, yesterday's settle below $54.51 did put risk to $51.96. Traders will get squared up here. A settle below $51.96 will "certainly" see $50.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 12:29:39 PM

Fifteen-minute OEX closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 564.60 still make 562.92-563.64 look possible.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 12:20:38 PM

Session low for QQQQ at 36.31 here, 30 min channel support declines to 36.25 as the short cycle continues to trend in oversold territory. 7200 tick SMA is down to 36.43, and the intraday picture remains bearish below it.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 12:18:03 PM

The OEX is rolling down through its descending regression channel off yesterday's high again, with the midline support now at a touch over 564 and bottom support a touch over 563.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 12:15:27 PM

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 12:15:10 PM

Nymex crude -1.88% at 50.875, current low 50.50. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 12:13:12 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 12:11:01 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link with volume slowing to a crawl (following the spike from my 5-minute shutdown earlier). QQQQ is drifting lower below 7200 tick SMA resistance, with slight bullish divergences developing in the short cycle oscillators. A break above the SMA should be sufficient to launch the new upphase, if the bulls can do it.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 12:09:07 PM

The advdec line is still generally dropping today, although currently off its low of the day. This morning, I had noted that the buy program Jeff mentioned came exactly as the advdec line hit its five-minute 100/130-ema's, but the advdec line since has been showing stronger reaction to the five-minute 21-ema, so far being pressured by this average. I don't know how relevant it is to watch the advdec line with regard to these averages, but sometimes there do appear to be correlations.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 12:03:51 PM

Good Gravy alert! ... Silicon Valley Banchshares (SIVB) $46.27 +5.49% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 12:02:12 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 12:00:34 PM

The Dow rises to test 10,500 again. The Dow's 15-minute Keltner chart shows strongest resistance at 10,512.21.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 11:59:57 AM

Bonds are drifting sideways in positive territory, ZN futures up .125 at 110 11/32, TNX -.5 bps at 4.355%. There's an auction of 5-year treasury notes today, the results of which will be released just after 1PM.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 11:57:05 AM

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $46.25 +0.26% Link ... GPS maker signs NBA's Yao Ming (7'6") as pitchman for TV commercials.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 11:55:05 AM

The OEX is so far pausing at the top of its descending regression channel, a channel that may or may not be a bull flag off yesterday's high. Fifteen-minute Keltner resistance from 565.64-565.81 may be strong enough to turn the OEX back through that channel again. Looks as if the OEX has some sorting out to do now, with the support from 562.80-563.70 looking firm, too.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 11:49:07 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $41.50 -2.69% ... some thoughts/observations headed into earnings. Since I'm bearish on AAPL, I'm looking at things from a BEAR's perspective. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 11:45:13 AM

The location of the descending trendline off yesterday's OEX high is at about 565.35. Some Keltner charts suggest that the OEX will reach that or even slightly exceed it before hitting strongest Keltner resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 11:44:37 AM

Back to find QQQQ testing 7200 tick SMA resistance from below. The sharp volume pop is due to my reboot, however, as IB backfilled the missing ticks all at once: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 11:35:47 AM

The OEX draws close to the 563.60-ish level that the three-minute Keltner charts show as strong support, but stops short of actually testing that level. There's danger of a pop higher, especially as that bull-flag formation begins to take on a bullish falling wedge shape. The bounce began as I was typing. The 15-minute chart shows strongest resistance now at just under 565.75, but resistance near the OEX's current price, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 11:30:15 AM

I need to reboot- back shortly.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 11:23:45 AM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $36.35 -0.81%, ELN $4.22 +11.67%, SPY $118.23 -0.39%, MSFT $25.30 -0.07%, HDI $48.66 -17.18%, INTC $22.98 -1.03%, CSCO $18.19 -0.27%, SEBL $9.02 +0.55%, JDSU $1.48 -1.33%, AAPL $41.27 -3.23%

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 11:21:22 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link . Volume is looking considerably lighter today at 35.2M shares traded so far, compared with yesterday's massive 145M total. That would suggest that the current intraday downphases are corrective within the daily cycle upphase- but that upphase is looking long in the tooth. Whether the current 30 and 60 min cycle downphases end above or below yesterday's low should resolve the dilemma.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 11:20:02 AM

SPY $118.31 -0.32% ... updated 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 11:18:58 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $41.45 -2.83% ... breaking below both rising 21-day and 50-day SMA's.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 11:15:23 AM

Silver has popped to a session high of 7.25 here, +1.41%, with gold 1 at 430.50. HUI is down 1.16%, however, at 194.07, XAU -.79% at 91.22. Crude oil is -2.12% here at 50.75, with the CRB -2.14 at 300.49.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 11:15:17 AM

The OEX's three-minute Keltner chart suggests that the OEX may test 563.60, perhaps after a rise toward 564.50-565.00, but like the 15-minute chart, doesn't give a clear picture for what might happen next. A bounce of some type looks in the works from that level, but whether it will stop short of 565.90-566.11, the next level of strong resistance, is unclear.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 11:10:13 AM

Sell Program Premium within last 5-minutes. (Didn't get my QCharts alarm reset)

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 11:08:53 AM

SPY $118.24 -0.38% ... just off session low of $118.17 and large block observations.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 11:08:55 AM

Ten year bonds are back to unchanged, with TNX flat at 4.360%. Crude oil is up to 51 after dropping to a low of 50.50. QQQQ is testing 36.35 support as the 30 and 60 min cycles work their way lower, 7200 tick SMA resistance down to 36.45.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 11:07:34 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 11:07:20 AM

Downside target for conservative bears who might have entered on yesterday's late-day test of the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the year's high is approaching. Know what you're going to do to protect your profits and whether you want to just exit the whole position or retain part/all to perhaps participate in deeper declines. There's no guarantee of deeper declines, so I would make sure that my winning position didn't turn into a losing one, at least, setting stops to breakeven.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 10:58:40 AM

On the OEX's five-minute chart, the form of the pullback from yesterday's high looks like a possible bull flag, so bears should be aware that there could be an upside break at any time, and I'd certainly be watchful of profits as 563.20-563.70 is touched, if it is. Keltner charts show a possibility that strong support might be found from 562.75-563.50, and a bounce of some type might be expected from that level, if it's reached. What they don't yet show is how strong/sustainable that bounce might be. Have to see as that level is touched, but conservative traders, if such could be said of any entering a bearish trade yesterday near the close, might want to take at least part of their profits off the table if that 563.20-573.80 level is hit or at least lower stops to a level that will guarantee that no losses will occur.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 10:56:32 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $31.62 -1.43% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... $30.93, $31.50, Piv= $31.83, $32.40, $32.73.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 10:54:58 AM

QQQQ broke the previous low and is headed lower, confirming the 30 and 60 min channel rollovers. Support for those 2 channels is at 36.30 currently, but the failure to clear the 7200 tick SMA at 36.50 will see those levels decline further. Note that for all yesterday's strength, the previous high for QQQQ was never broken (missed by about 3 pennies), and again today, we have a lower high- this is bearish for the daily cycle, and if yesterday's low at 36.00 breaks, we should see a preliminary sell signal in that longer timeframe.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 10:56:09 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $31.62 -1.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 10:53:47 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,182.78

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 10:49:19 AM

Those who might have entered new bearish OEX positions near yesterday's close want the OEX to continue to find resistance on 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 565.37 and would prefer closes below the line currently at 564.93. Next 15-minute support below that is 563.80, at the 38.2% retracement of yesterday's range, and then below that near 562.80. I'd certainly have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of 563.20-563.80, if touched, and I wouldn't let the OEX move much above yesterday's high before exiting, because such a move suggests that the OEX might attempt to move up to the top of its rising regression channel and the 50% retracement of the decline off the year's high, both now near 571.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 10:45:58 AM

Premium of S&P Futures ($PREM.X) ... 5-minute interval chart at this Link . I get questions as to "what are the buy/sell program premiums" you give us each morning. Here's a chart (5-minute intervals) that shows yesterday's activity and this morning's most recent "buy program premium"

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 10:45:04 AM

The OEX's three-minute Keltner chart suggests that we may be in for some consolidation for a while, as support is trying to firm, but for now, resistance still looks firm up to just above 566.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 10:44:30 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 10:42:15 AM

2-day 30 tick chart of May crude at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 10:40:30 AM

Three-minute Keltner resistance is holding on the OEX so far, but support is trying to firm up, too, now near 564.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 10:37:19 AM

DALLAS (MarketWatch) -- May crude fell 3% and May gasoline and heating oil each dropped 2% after the Energy Department reported the weekly U.S. supply data. The agency said crude supplies rose 3.6 million barrels during the week ended April 8, and gasoline inventories increased by 800,000 barrels. Distillate stocks, which include heating oil, dropped 100,000 barrels.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 10:36:12 AM

Lots of rumors are reported on my forex news source that never come to be anything but rumors, but a rumor now is that a plane to LAX has been diverted.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 10:35:22 AM

Nymex crude is down to 50.575, -2.46%, but still no headline that I can find.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 10:34:11 AM

OEX tests Keltner resistance on the three-minute chart. Still looks strong, but this is a three-minute chart and not as reliable as a longer-term one.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 10:33:02 AM

Interesting that the advdec line hit its five-minute 100/130-ema (currently -1391.10 and -1451.21) exactly before bouncing. About to test the five-minute 21-ema at -805.81.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 10:34:22 AM

Swing trade covered call close out alert buying back (closing out) the two (2) Semiconductor HOLDRs SMH April $32.50 Calls (SMH-DZ) at the offer of $0.10 per contract. SMH $31.80 -0.90% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 10:32:29 AM

QQQQ clearing 7200 tick SMA resistance in a strong surge here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 10:31:48 AM

It's a strong one.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 10:31:32 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,185.98

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 10:31:17 AM

Oil inventory reports just out- waiting to get the headlines.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 10:30:57 AM

The OEX rises to test Keltner resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 10:28:46 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 10:25:54 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 10:21:28 AM

The OEX's three-minute Keltner chart shows strong resistance from 565.40-565.88, on a three-minute closing basis.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 10:17:47 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link . April 7 closing internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 10:17:03 AM

No follow-through on the OEX decline, which is perhaps part of the park-it-before-the-number activity, but the OEX's three-minute Keltner chart still shows overhead resistance looking much stronger than support, down to 562.97-563.47. This suggests that while the OEX could bounce, it would still likely rollover from a lower high (than yesterday's). The inventories number could change the picture radically, and those who might have entered a bearish play near yesterday's close have to make a decision as to whether they'll take their profits right now or wait it out.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 10:16:26 AM

QQQQ bounced from 36.40, but needs to regain the 7200 tick SMA resistance at 36.55 to kick off the overdue short cycle upphase. The 30 and 60 min channels have turned lower, with 30 min cycle resistance now 36.65. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 10:11:30 AM

Bonds continue to edge lower, with June ZN futures down to 110 19/64, TNX up to a 0.1 bp loss at 4.359%.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 10:10:24 AM

So, I mentioned that those who might have entered new bearish positions near the close yesterday have profit-protecting plans in mind for a test of 563.20-563.40 (now raised to 563.70) if the OEX should approach those levels, but does that mean I think new longs should be entered at those levels? Not me, not yet, not with the OEX still in a rising regression channel that looks like a bear flag, still finding resistance at the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the year's high, not with crude inventories about to be released and the reaction to those inventories yet unknown. Sorry. It's possible that the OEX could descend all the way to the bottom of that descending regression channel again. Anything is possible while the OEX is still within that potential bear flag, still below that first important Fib level.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 10:10:17 AM

Dow Jones Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) 850.05 -1.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 10:08:38 AM

VIX.X 11.90 +5.13% ... Daily Pivot Levels ... 10.13, 10.72, Piv= 11.77, 12.36, 13.41

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 10:07:27 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 10:06:00 AM

New LOD, but only slightly on the OEX. Bears who might have entered a new position yesterday near the close do not want to see a quick and strong bounce here, although a bounce back up to 565 wouldn't be unexpected.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 10:04:33 AM

Just noticed that a 38.2% retracement of yesterday's OEX range is at 563.67, above that 563.20-563.40 range I've been mentioning. Perhaps have profit-protecting plans in mind beginning at that higher level, if you happened to have entered a bearish position yesterday near the close.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 10:06:23 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart updated at this Link with session lows printing now. 30 min channel support is down to 36.35- the bulls couldn't regain 36.66.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 10:02:08 AM

If you happened to have entered a bearish OEX trade yesterday near the close as the OEX again tested the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the year's high, then you want to see a new LOD, which is now looking possible, and you want to see that drop toward 563.20-563.40, and you perhaps want to see that really soon, before the inventories number. Have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of that 563.20-563.40 level, if that occurs. Be careful here, especially if the OEX fails to produce a new LOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 10:00:49 AM

Session low for May Nymex crude here at 51, -.85 for the day.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 9:57:25 AM

And we have gotten an OEX failure below 567 and a new test of the low of the day. A failure through that low of the day suggests a decline toward 563.20-563.40, but remember that indices are probably already being positioned ahead of the inventories number and there's no guarantee that the OEX will breach that LOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 9:58:03 AM

The Fed's open market desk has announced an 8B overnight repo to replace 4B expiring, for a net add of 4B for the day. Bonds are positive but have weakened, TNX down 1 bp at 4.35% here. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 9:58:43 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $42.13 -1.28% Link ... bears looking for some Harley-like action after tonight's earnings. AAPL sitting at 50% retracement of 2/17/05 high to recent 03/09/05 pullback low. I'm not a candlesticker but I think AAPL showing an "evening doji star" pattern. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 9:52:04 AM

So much for retesting the day's low, at least for now. The Keltner lines realigned as the OEX heads up into that bounce. The dip and the bounce attempt I was fairly certain would happen this morning, but that's all that I felt fairly certain about. I think it possible, but perhaps not yet probable, that the bounce could fail at or below yesterday's high, but if that doesn't happen, think it possible that the OEX could be attempting to push above a 38.2% retracement of the decline off the year's high, toward the 50% retracement. Here's where we see what's going to happen over the very short term, I think.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 9:52:41 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) update alert $31.77 -0.99% ... I was so tempted to post "If I was short 5, 10 or more of the SMH April $32.50 Calls (SMH-DZ) I would close them out at $0.05" yesterday. The SMH saw a strong bounce yesterday and for $0.05 it might be worth closing these out into Friday's expiration.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 9:49:54 AM

QQQQ's 7200 tick SMA resistance has edged down to 36.63, one cent below the current session high. The short cycles are ticking up, but it will take a break of the high to start a new upphase in that timeframe. Because the 30 and 60 min cycles didn't reach oversold, a short cycle upphase from here could kick off a secondary upside launch- however, a failure to clear 36.66 and 30 min cycle rollover from here would result in a steep bearish divergence. In that timeframe, a break of either 36.75 or 36.40 should be directional.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 9:48:18 AM

You're welcome, Jeff, about the candlestick information. Not certain whether I got the right symbol, though, as I may have misread your post and thought the question referred to the NQ. Some of the other writers have chimed in, too, with information about the QM.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 9:46:25 AM

Linda .... thank you for addressing the reader's candlestick question. (see 07:30:42)

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 9:43:18 AM

It's looking possible that the OEX will retest this morning's low, if not fall to 563.20-563.40, still also a possibility if not yet a probability.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 9:41:47 AM

The OEX is trying to close this morning's gap, but has so far been unsuccessful in moving above that gap zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 9:40:17 AM

Gold is down to a 50 cent gain at 430, silver -.033 at 7.116. HUI is down 1.13% at 194.13, XAU -.79% at 91.22.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 9:42:45 AM

Harley Davidson (HDI) $46.70 -17% Link ... atop this morning's most active list after motorcycle mfg. saying fiscal 2005 earnings are now projected to grow 5% to 8%, down from its prior forecast of a 14% to 16% increase. Analysts were looking for fiscal 2005 earnings, on average, of $3.36 a share. In fiscal 2004, the company recorded earnings of $3.00 a share.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 9:37:26 AM

My scenario for the first part of the trading today (see my first OEX-related post this morning) was for a drop to 565-565.30 (exceeded that a bit) and then for a bounce attempt. Then I thought it possible the bounce attempt might fail at a lower or equal high and the OEX might roll down toward 563.20-563.40, holding onto the possibility that the OEX was headed up toward a 50% retracement of the decline off the year's high if there was a higher high. The bounce is getting underway. Now to see if we get the failure at a lower or equal high.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 9:34:25 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link with 30 and 60 min channel support intersecting at 36.46. A short cycle downphase is in progress, nearing oversold territory. Bulls need to get price back above 36.66 to stall it, and stabilize the failing 30 min channel upphase.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 9:34:11 AM

Although still above the 200-ema and -sma, the RLX turns down again this morning.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 9:33:36 AM

I was wondering this morning if the SOX would react to ASML's outlook. (See my 7:09 post.) The SOX is falling again below the 200-sma. Haven't we all typed that over and over lately?

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 9:31:58 AM

We're getting the early pullback to 565-565.30 that I thought we might get. (See my 8:57 post.) Now, the question is whether the rest of that scenario (bounce attempt, potential rollover from a lower or equal high) will play out. The OEX isn't showing any signs of slowing its descent as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 9:28:13 AM

The downtick in the 30 min cycle channel for QQQQ is so far just that, with the current range looking like a bull flag. The 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators are still rising and have yet to reach overbought. However, if the current weakness persists for another 10-15 minutes past the cash open, that should begin to change as price holds below the 7200 tick SMA resistance. The steepness of yesterday's vertical meltup is complicating the picture, as the usual indicator lag is more pronounced now.

Keene Little : 4/13/2005 9:27:04 AM

In reference to the earlier discussion on oil's candlestick pattern, I agree with Jonathan's assessment that Tuesday's candle is a bearish engulfing candle since it opened higher than the previous day's close and closed lower than the previous day's low. This looks more like a continuation pattern for lower prices. Marc and I had been looking for oil's decline to stop somewhere around $52 (I had $52.20 and Marc had $51.57 I believe). With oil dropping below both these levels it has also dropped below the uptrend line from December. The way I read the pattern, as long as oil (May contract) stays above $50, the January high, the EW pattern shows the potential for oil to continue to rally higher, likely getting above $60. If it breaks below $50 it could continue on down to a longer term uptrend line near $46. Its 200-dma is currently near $45. With the daily chart oversold I don't see a good trade in oil currently. We could just chop along in a relatively tight range.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 9:28:54 AM

ImClone (IMCL) $35.31 Link ... lower at $31.85 after after the drugmaker and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) said they will delay applying to sell their Erbitux drug as a treatment for certain types of head and neck cancer while they further review study data.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 9:30:30 AM

Jonathan, thanks for your post about the QM. I must have answered Jeff's question too early, because I read QM and thought "NQ." Reviewing that early post from Jeff, though, I see references to both NQ and QM, so perhaps I can be excused. Smile.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 9:24:19 AM

e-mini S&P (es05m) ... with conventional (blue) and bearishly fit 38.2% (red) retracement at this Link with 04/06/05 and 04/07/05 observation.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2005 9:18:33 AM

On 04/06/05, the ES settled above th 1,187.50 level (like it did yesterday). The next day 04/07/05 the ES undercut the 1,187.50 level, then jumped to settle between the 1,194.60-1,195.75 zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 9:02:28 AM

Session low for gold here at 429.30, ditto Euro and CAD futures at 1.2897 and .8079 respectively, with QQQQ at the bottom of its morning range at 36.57 currently. The 30 min channel is ticking lower, with declining support looking to coincide with still-rising 60 min channel support at 36.48.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 8:58:51 AM

Tuesday, the OEX dropped to Keltner, historical, and daily 200-ema support and sat there into the release of the FOMC minutes. Bears had plenty of time to prepare exit plans, and they were going to need them, because the OEX zoomed higher again. Climbing through its rising regression channel (a bear flag?), the OEX zoomed straight up to the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the year's high and to the 4/08 high. And then it stopped, producing a gravestone doji at the top of the climb on the 60-minute chart. Is the OEX going to roll down again from the 38.2% retracement level, as it did April 8, or is it going to pop through to the next Fib level? Certainly, bulls would prefer that futures not be down this morning, indicating a possible lower open (possible only), as that could look troublesome after that doji.

The 50% retracement of the decline now coincides with the top of the rising regression channel, and I wouldn't be surprised if the OEX weren't headed up to those converging resistance levels, but I also wouldn't be surprised if there's not a pullback from yesterday's high. We'll look for the possibility that the OEX might pull back toward 565-565.30 early in the morning, attempt another bounce, and then perhaps pull back toward 563.20-563.40, or whether the attempted bounce might move over yesterday's high, undoing that first potential scenario.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 8:35:10 AM

Session low for QQQQ at 36.59, -.07 currently. 30 min channel support is at 36.55, but on the light volume it will take a sustained test of that level to turn the toppy channel down.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 8:34:25 AM

Bonds are higher on the news, ZN futures up .2344 at 110 29/64 now, TNX -3.1 bps at 4.329%.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 8:33:46 AM

Retail sales +.3% vs. .8% exp, prior. .5%

Retail sales ex auto .1% vs. .5% exp., prior .6% revised from .4%

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 7:47:01 AM

Equities are lower, with ES trading 1189.25, NQ 1492.5, YM 10515 and QQQQ -.02 at 36.64. Gold is up 1 to 430.5, silver +.061 to 7.21, ten year treasuries are lower by .0469 at 110 11/64, and May crude oil -.575 at 51.275.

We await the 8:30 release of retail sales and retail sales ex-auto for March, est. +.8% and +.5% respectively.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/13/2005 7:42:55 AM

Linda, QM is the Interactive Brokers symbol for crude oil, CL on most other platforms. The formation I see is a bearish engulfing with a very short lower shadow. A hammer would have the candle body at the top of the range with a long lower shadow, and an inverted hammer the reverse.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 7:30:42 AM

Jeff, in reference to your reader's candlestick question in your 1:07 post, perhaps I'm misunderstanding the symbol the reader is looking at, but what I see on the NQ's daily chart is more like a hammer, and not an inverted hammer. An inverted hammer would have an upper shadow and a small real body at the bottom of the day's range. The hammer can be a reversal signal, but its reliability is low, and it probably does need confirmation, beginning with a higher open the next day, which isn't occurring. One problem with this whole hammer/reversal discussion, however, is that the NQ has been consolidating on the daily chart and these reversal signals from within a consolidation pattern often don't mean as much, as least according to Nison. For example, if you study that consolidation pattern from the middle of March on, you'll see lots of potential reversal signals produced within that consolidation pattern, including some actual inverted hammers.

Linda Piazza : 4/13/2005 7:11:52 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei fell in overnight trading, closing at its lowest level this month. Other Asian markets were mixed, some closing near the flat-line level, but with more gaining than losing. European markets gain. Our futures are lower, however. As of 6:39 EST, gold was up $1.20, and crude, down $0.54 to $51.32. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Wednesday, the Bank of Japan released February's Manufacturers' Input/Output Price indices, with the input index increasing 0.9% over the previous month's level and 4.8% year over year. The output price index increased 0.3% over the previous month's and 2.6% year over year. The trade condition index declined 0.6% over the previous month's and 2.1% year over year. Bloomberg reported that March's producer prices increased a slightly higher than expected 1.4%, with corporations not always able to pass costs on to customers.

Exporters gained in early trading due to relief after the release of the FOMC minutes, helping to send the Nikkei higher, but the Nikkei soon began to tumble off the early high of the day, falling into the early afternoon. It managed to close off the low of the day, but still closed lower by 32.78 points or 0.28%, at 11,637.52. Later, the government released its April economic report, with the government upgrading its outlook on consumption and reporting some weaknesses, especially in business sentiment, but with the report otherwise characterized as in line with previous reports.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but with more gaining than losing. The Taiwan Weighted closed up by 0.7%, but South Korea's Kospi closed lower by 0.05%. J.P. Morgan raised its target for the Kospi to 1,050 from the previous 950 by the year-end. The Kospi closed at 981.31. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.02%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained a heftier 1.04%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed an even stronger 2.35%, with some attributing the climb to reassurances by a government official that the government will not flood the market with shares in its share sales program.

Most European markets gain. In the U.K. average earnings rose 4.7%, with that rise in average earnings perhaps of help to the opposition party in the upcoming government vote. March's European new car registrations dropped 4.7% on the year. Car manufacturers were showing expected weakness, and Deutsche Bank perhaps exacerbated the damage for Peugeot by downgrading the stock to a hold rating from the previous buy rating. Some airliners climbed as oil dropped, but oil-related issues fell.

Perhaps of special interest to U.S. investors watching earnings in the tech sector this week are ASML earnings and the statement accompanying those earnings. ASML's outlook was for the current quarter to see lower order intake than the just-ended quarter. The company's statement was that it didn't see prospects for a sharp recovery of the industry this year, as the semiconductor fab capacity utilization featured a slow improvement. ASML was dropping in early trading. In other stock-specific news, Nokia was upgraded to a neutral rating by Nomura, and gained in early trading. Merrill Lynch downgraded German chemicals company BASF and peer Solvay. Merrill Lynch felt that expected strong Q1 results could be a temporary peak for BASF.

As of 6:56 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 20 points or 0.40%, at 4,966.20. The CAC 40 had climbed 27.24 points or 0.66%, at 4,124.05. The DAX had climbed 28.11 points or 0.64%, at 4,400.23.

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