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Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:13:37 AM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) $+0.06 at $52.84

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:11:55 AM

ym05m -24 at 10,229

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:11:05 AM

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05m) -5.50 at 1,435.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:09:57 AM

e-mini S&P (es05m) -2.00 at 1,158.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:09:17 AM

June Gold (gc05m) down "a bone" $-1.00 at $424.60.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:07:57 AM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 85.12

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:06:28 AM

NDX Stocks that were bought the most during Thursday's buy programs were MLNM Link FISV Link LNCR Link .

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:04:38 AM

OEX Stocks that were bought the most during Thursday's buy programs were JNJ Link PEP Link CPB Link PFE Link MRK Link BMY Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:00:46 AM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.72 and set for program selling at $+1.36.

OI Technical Staff : 4/14/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 7:14:28 PM

Pivot Matrix for Friday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 7:01:02 PM

Gold Bugs alert ... Keep eye on Dollar Index (dx00y) at 85.44, as help for any sector bulls might be on the way. Triple correlation in tomorrow's pivot matrix. Dollar Index (dx00y) 85.17 here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 6:16:03 PM

Brazil iShares (EWZ) $21.80 -5.09% ... got whacked on those retail numbers from this morning. Large block of 40K billed out at the close.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 6:08:37 PM

Pharmaceutical HOLDRs (PPH) $74.80 +0.26% ... $75.90 in extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 6:05:21 PM

QQQQ $35.55 -1.41% ... now $35.27

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 6:04:05 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $102.40 -1.51% ... snapping back from IBM after-hours lows of $102.02

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 6:02:53 PM

Pfizer (PFE) $27.45 +0.62% ... $28.10 in extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 6:02:28 PM

Merck (MRK) $34.78 +0.75% ... $35.01 in extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 5:59:47 PM

QQQQ $35.55 -1.41% ... $35.18 on TEVA weakness.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 5:57:49 PM

Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) $32.52 +1.21% ... plunging to $31.75

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 5:59:03 PM

Eli Lilly (LLY) alert $55.16 -3.43% ... jumps to $58.99 on favorable ruling for Zyprexa.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 7:04:31 PM

Possible 4-lettered long for tomorrow ... Dell Computer (DELL) as it nears my $35.00 and 100% of bearishly fit 38.2% retracement. Would look for eventual bounce back to at least $37.75. Might look to play with OUT THE MONEY NAKED PUT on VIX.X spike to WEEKLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 5:47:24 PM

Closing Internals at this Link . NYSE's DAILY Ratio at 13.2% and looking very "oversold." Be alert for buyers 6,984-6,982. Recent benchmark would be 03/23/05 NYSE NH/NL 12:146 and DAILY Ratio of 7.6%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 5:33:06 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 4:57:12 PM

QQQQ $35.55 -1.41% ... $35.20 in extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 4:45:17 PM

S&P Dep. Receipts (SPY) $115.77 -1.30% ... $115.60 in extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 4:44:26 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $102.40 -1.51% ... $102.14 in extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 4:43:12 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $30.90 -1.59% ... lower at $30.61, also below regular session low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 4:42:00 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $37.26 -9.21% ... "Big Red" trading $36.80, which would be just below regular session low after "Big Blue" reported earnings early.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 4:34:34 PM

Eli Lilly (LLY) $55.16 -3.43% ... $55.15 in extended session. No Zyprexa ruling at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 4:32:12 PM

IBM (IBM)alert $83.64 -1.09% ... lower at $81.75 after releasing earnings two days early. Big Blue said net income rose to $1.41 billion, or $0.84 per share, from $1.36 billion, or $0.79 per share in the same quarter last year. Revenue was up 3.3% to $22.91 billion from $22.18 billion in the year-ago quarter. Analysts were looking for IBM to report EPS of $0.90.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 4:27:01 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Today's Activity ... closed out one (1) of the Apple Computer AAPL July $42.50 Puts (QAA-SV) at the bid of $5.40. ($+1.20, or +28.57%).

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 4:12:45 PM

The October lows for QQQQ are less than 20 cents away from current levels. Bollinger support on the daily chart and all intraday channels have been broken on this surge.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 4:06:50 PM

Session lows being broken now for QQQQ, violating 30 and 60 min channel support.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 3:57:36 PM

Volume breadth has deteriorated sharply here, with declining volume now ahead 4:1 on the COMPX and 4.3:1 on the NYSE. QQQQ's done an amazing 157M shares so far, the 5th down day in a row with the daily cycle on a fresh sell signal off last week's high. All intraday cycles are due for an upphase- today's action amounted to a "crash" for the short and 30 min cycles, with even the 60 min cycle now buried in oversold and due for a bounce.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 3:55:14 PM

The OEX 's new downside target is 554.41 according to the Keltner charts, just above the 200-sma. Don't know that I trust this new breakdown signal at the end of the day, however, with a sell-off ahead of tomorrow's numbers.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 3:54:00 PM

On the Q-Charts version, the advdec level is at an amazing -3922. I show January 4 as the last time the advdec line was that low, and today's level is about to exceed that one to the downside. Lest you're tempted to think that such an extreme level led to a pop the next day, markets in fact did try to rise the next day, but fell back from the high of the day and printed a red candle with an upper shadow. That began a broadening formation that lasted for a couple of weeks. I don't know about you, but I don't want to see another consolidation and/or reversal pattern began. The last one was resolved to the downside before the OEX began to climb again.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 3:54:40 PM

Eli Lilly (LLY) $55.56 -2.73% .. would suggest any traders short the stock to close out position, perhaps turn to options market prior to the close. Most active options are the APR $60 Calls 25,268:39,475 and APR $50 Puts 21,388:39,734

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 3:46:59 PM

QQQQ is back to test the session low of 38.50. With sideways 30 and 60 min channel support lined up there and daily bollinger support at 35.84 currently, this is a level that should not break- if it does, then the bears are serving up a very strong downside trending move. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 3:46:31 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $27.15 -2.89% ... looks to close at session low. Rising 50-day SMA ($26.93).

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 3:46:26 PM

Slight new LOD on the OEX.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 3:41:26 PM

The OEX has not printed a new LOD, but is breaking out of its coiling formation to the downside.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 3:37:30 PM

Support looks as if it's firming up just a bit for the OEX, at 556.46-556.72 on the 15-minute Keltner chart, but it's still nothing to hang your hat on yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 3:36:46 PM

Crude oil has reopened for the evening session, May crude trading 51.15 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 3:35:05 PM

QQQQ's traded another 11M shares with no net change in price. Descending intraday trendline resistance is down to 35.71: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 3:29:02 PM

The OEX still coils.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 3:21:16 PM

The OEX may be coiling into a symmetrical triangle on its 15-minute chart. Really no surprise on opex Thursday.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 3:20:47 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.23 -0.72% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 3:19:36 PM

S&P Dep. Receipts (SPY) $116.71 -0.51% ... buyers trying to defend the $116.43-$116.74 "zone of support" in the WEEKLY Pivot retracment.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 3:18:01 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 350.22 -1.05% ... slip back under their WEEKLY Pivot (350.65).

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 3:13:35 PM

Jane's charting service may be showing something different, but mine is showing the advdec line having just reached a new LOD and just off that LOD.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 3:12:17 PM

No new low yet on the OEX, but no signs of great strength, either. The OEX's smallest Keltner channel still slants lower.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 3:10:19 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 3:09:26 PM

TNX finished lower by 1.2 bps at 4.362%. Today's narrow range marked an inside day following yesterday's doji star, with the 10 day stochastic on a bullish kiss. A close above 4.4% resistance should generate the first stochastic buy signal in this timeframe. Tomorrow morning's full slate of data, including import prices and export prices, capacity utilization and industrial production, and Michigan sentiment, could provide the catalyst. Daily chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 3:06:28 PM

QQQQ failed again below descending intraday resistance. Link The 30 and 60 min channels have support from 35.48-.52, which is the start of what should be firm confluence support on the daily chart going back to October's range.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 3:02:34 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 3:00:12 PM

United Health Group (UNH) $96.15 +0.18% ... bids green after session low of $92.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 3:00:01 PM

Volume breadth has improved but remains negative, 3.1 declining Nasdaq shares for each advancing, 2.5 declining NYSE shares for each advancing. The TRINQ is still above 1, but down to 1.26 here.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 2:59:08 PM

The OEX coils on the 15-minute chart without a clear outcome yet possible to see. REsistance at 559.66-560 looks fairly firm, but support from 556.42-557.00 is trying to firm again, too.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 2:58:01 PM

Stock Trader's Almanac note for Friday ... Income Tax Deadline ... Option expiration day Dow Industrials up 7 of last 8 (2001 lone loser).

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 2:55:51 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,166.26, DIA $103.19, QQQQ $35.66

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 2:53:48 PM

Updated intraday QQQQ chart at this Link with fib retracement off yeserday's low (indicated as the 100% line).

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 2:53:43 PM

Here's the post that I wish I had posted on this side, first posted on the Futures side at 2:36: Steep pullback from that resistance zone that I mentioned in my 2:19 post. As I said in that post, this is absolutely not what new bulls want to see. No new low yet, though, but an evening-star pattern may now be in the making on the 15-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 2:52:38 PM

I've been posting on the wrong side again. Here's my latest post, transferred to the right side: So far, the OEX has avoided falling to a new low, which would be a last-ditch stop for new bulls. That's not a position I'm recommending, by the way, but I'm noting what I see for the benefit of those who might have reversed long near 1:30.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 2:51:52 PM

Back. QQQQ has cleared 7200 tick SMA resistance but failed to reach 35.80 resistance, currently chopping sideways. Volume remains very heavy, now 133.8M shares traded approaching 3PM. Bonds have firmed slightly, TNX now down 1.8 bps at 4.356%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 2:37:51 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) $52.85 +1.38% (30-minute delayed) ... did tick to a session high of $53.00 (02:00-02:05 PM EDT). WEEKLY S1 $52.86 has been intra-day resistance, while my fitted retracement and 50%/$51.97 has served support.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 2:35:11 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,166.52, DIA $103.23, QQQQ $35.68

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 2:34:38 PM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $35.72 -0.94%, AAPL $37.28 -9.13%, SPY $116.76 -0.46%, INTC $22.68 -0.56%, MSFT $24.99 -0.23%, JDSU $1.52 +2.70%, CSCO $17.84 -0.88%,

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 2:51:35 PM

The 15-minute Keltner chart suggests that resistance may be firming up from 559.68-560.19, corroborating that level as potential resistance. If in a risky countertrend bullish play, you'll want to see the OEX maintain 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 558.16 and will want to see the OEX break through the line now at 560.19. Stronger resistance might form near 561.50, although it's not yet formed.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 2:17:42 PM

Sell Program Premium .... SPX 1,168.16, DIA $103.31, QQQQ $35.74.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 2:19:32 PM

OEX change in tenor with respect to a 15-minute close above a first level of Keltner resistance and a move above the ten-minute 210-ema. Bears had an opportunity to put their profit-protecting plans in place. Now new bulls--a risky choice, but I know there must be some out there--don't want to see a quick reversal now at the important 558.50-559.30 levels, although a flag-like pullback would be okay. I'd be particularly careful in the 560-561 zone, if that's reached.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 2:14:51 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,168.25, DIA $103.30, QQQQ $35.77

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 2:14:33 PM

Important test going on, important for the short-term at least. That's the test of 15-minute Keltner resistance at 557.93 on a 15-minute close and the intra-period resistance on the ten-minute 21-ema, now being slightly exceeded.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 2:08:54 PM

The OEX is still testing the 15-minute Keltner resistance currently at 557.89. The 10-minute 21-ema at 558.39 has also been important in OEX behavior today, with the 15-minute Keltner resistance topping movements on 15-minute closes and with the 10-minute 21-ema topping the upward moves (not just closes).

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 2:06:46 PM

QQQQ is breaking north of the 7200 tick SMA line here. I need to step away for approximately 1 hour here and will be back by 3PM.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 2:04:34 PM

02:00 Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 2:01:13 PM

The previous 15-minute candle was a long-legged doji and the OEX climbs now, perhaps creating a morning-star candle on this current 15-minute period. The 15-minute Keltner resistance near 558 that's been holding back the OEX on 15-minute closes is now being tested and may be holding again, but be careful, bears, in case this is the beginning of a bigger bounce. There's no proof yet that it is, since a bounce was almost required at this point, so it's not alarming that one would be attempted, but don't let it get away from you.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 1:59:14 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $37.00 -9.86% ... "O gets the square."

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 1:56:37 PM

Volume breadth continues to deteriorate for the Nasdaq, 3.5 declining shares for each advancing with the TRINQ rising to 1.57. 7200 tick SMA resistance is down to 35.68, but QQQQ rolled over before testing it. NDX volatility as measured by the QQV is up 8.1% here at 17.21.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 1:53:00 PM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $3.11 -7.44% ... Wall Street Network airing exclusing audio interviews Link (for the weekend)

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 1:52:10 PM

Keltner resistance beginning to firm near 557.53-557.85. Support is light just below the current OEX's position. Downside target currently 555.31, but if the OEX is going to mount a bounce from this important support (unknown at this time), bears are living on borrowed time. There's just no way at this point to know whether bulls or bears are going to cave, so just keep those profit-protecting plans in mind.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 1:50:00 PM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI)alert $3.05 -9.22% ... quick drop to WEEKLY S2 on volume.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 1:48:01 PM

May crude oil is up .65 here at 50.875, with gold and silver barely twitching, -5.50 at 425.60 and -.191 at 7.041 respectively. HUI is dowb 3.99% at 183.42, XAU -3.36% at 87.1, with the holding 85 for its earlier retest: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 1:46:07 PM

7200 tick SMA resistance is down to 35.70, a break above which should stall the current downphase. Bulls need to see a move north of 35.80 to suggest a new 30 min cycle upphase, with confirmation coming on a break of the prior 35.92 high. The short cycles are ticking higher again, but the intraday trend remains down until that 35.92 level has been cleared. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 1:43:33 PM

Bears should be aware that the OEX nearly hit its downside Keltner target (and did hit the one originally set when the OEX first gave a downside breakout signal this morning). Keep those profit-protecting plans to the forefront now. If your plan was to automatically exit half your position and set breakeven for the rest, do it if you didn't already when that first downside target was hit. If your plan was to stay in but reset all the position to breakeven or a little above breakeven, do that. Follow your plan, whatever it was.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 1:38:29 PM

Buy Program Premium SPX 1,164.39, DIA $103.04, QQQQ $35.58

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 1:37:18 PM

QQQQ $35.54 -1.44% ... WEEKLY S2. I'm closing out 1/2 of a bearish day trade short at these levels in personal account.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 1:36:09 PM

The zone near OEX 555.50 has more significance than a 15-minute downside Keltner target. For many, many months, I've had a S/R zone marked on one OEX chart, with the bottom of that zone at about 555.50, approximately. Here's an old chart that was first annotated in November (blue comments) and then annotated again in early March (maroon comments) with the S/R zone marked in blue. Link It's possible that the OEX has formed a blunted right shoulder for a H&S with a neckline right at that 555.50-ish level, but it's also possible that the OEX is still lacking a right shoulder or even that it will reject the formation from the neckline. That makes the upcoming test an important one. Bears, have profit-protecting plans in case there's a new right shoulder to be formed. Bulls, be aware that the OEX could drop through this neckline, a very bearish event (unless quickly reversed).

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 1:34:15 PM

New session lows for QQQQ, at the start of the 36.40-.50 confluence area going back to October last year.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 1:26:44 PM

Crude oil is up .525 at 50.75 for the May contract, off a high of 51. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 1:25:09 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 1:26:22 PM

The OEX's 200-ema is at 557.71; the 200-sma, at 554.14.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 1:23:22 PM

QQQQ volume surged despite the relatively small dip to a new low, 3 cents below the prior low. 103.1M shares have now traded, while volume breadth has deteriorated, with 3.1 declining shares for each advancing on the Nasdaq. 7200 tick SMA resistance is down to 35.76 currently. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 1:22:21 PM

Remember the ascending trendline off the 3/29 low, at about 556.70 on the OEX. That's probably responsible for this bounce. As I said this morning, there are lots of levels of potential support through here, which may make any further decline, if it occurs, a choppy grind lower. Bears, have your profit-protecting plans in place.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 1:19:08 PM

New breakdown signal created on the Keltner charts, renewing the downside target, now at 555.52.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 1:18:33 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,165.55 -0.70%, DIA $103.07, QQQQ $35.66.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 1:15:42 PM

Session lows here. QQQQ's prior low was 2 cents below at 35.66. Current channel support is back down to 35.60 if the lows fail to hold.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 1:15:33 PM

Test of the OEX's day's low, slightly exceeded as I type. If there's no quick bounce, the downside 555.60 target is renewed. Bears who might have entered on this morning's bear-flag breakdown don't want to see a quick bounce, and need to have profit-protecting plans in place for this test and the test of lower Keltner support, if reached.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 1:13:07 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 1:12:38 PM

The 9B Ten year TIPS auction generated a bid to cover ratio of 1.97 at a rate of 1.75%, with 3.8B of the 9B total taken by indirect bidders (foreign central banks). Ten year notes have firmed slightly following this release, TNX down 1.3 bps at 4.361% currently.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 1:05:25 PM

OEX Keltner resistance continues to hold on 15-minute closes, with that resistance now at 558.87. The support hasn't softened enough to be sure that a bounce won't begin, however.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 1:04:20 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 12:57:09 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.28 -0.67% ... new session lows here. Yellow "zone of support" in here from $103.22-$103.47. Component breadth negative at 18:12. GM $26.65 -5.93%, AA $29.76 -2.10%, MMM $82.51 -2.03% ... MRK $34.77 +0.72%, JNJ $69.00 +0.59%

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 12:53:44 PM

QQQQ's traded 91.4M shares here, a very heavy day shaping up. Bears need to beware of a bounce from here, which would leave a high volume doji hammer, a distinctly un-bearish pattern for the daily print should such occur. The last dip found support a few cents above the session low, and while the daily cycle downphase is right on track, delivering lower highs and lower lows, price was probing the bottom of that declining channel today, with all intraday cycles oversold. A strong drop from here would be extremely bearish, but the high volume with price moving sideways could also constitute a consolidation/accumulation at current levels. In either case, a break above 35.92 or below 35.60 should be directional.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 12:51:17 PM

Keltner resistance holds, but so does support. That support may be softening slightly, but so does resistance. Chart signals are uncertain, and MACD unsurprisingly begins to flatten, and we're seeing typical inaction for an opex Thursday. I'm not so sure it will hold all day, but am certainly not surprised to see it happening.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 12:48:40 PM

QQQQ $35.78 -0.77% ....

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 12:48:15 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $25.06 +0.07% ... off session low of $24.83.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 12:46:43 PM

Ten year treasuries continue to work their way slowly lower, TNX now up to a 0.4 bp loss at 4.37%. A 10-year TIPS auction is in progress, the results of which will be released shortly after 1PM. With the 10-day stochastic on a bullish kiss here for the TNX and trading flat today, there's the potential for a sharp move following the results. So far, the Fed's massive infusion of money announced this morning has yet to make an appearance in either equities or treasuries. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 12:46:06 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $38.11 -7.16% Link ... today's trade at $38.00 good enough for reversing lower PnF sell signal. Initial bearish vertical count building to $31. "First sell signal in upward trend can be a buying opportunity" will be tested in coming sessions. I decided to lock in partial gain on previously profiled puts for the MM Profile portfolio just in case. Relative strength chart Link of AAPL vs. QQQQ gives "sell signal." Further weakness on reading of 102.00.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 12:39:47 PM

Maverick Tube (MVK) $29.89 -1.74% ....

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 12:39:08 PM

Oil Service (OSX.X) 133.76 -0.14% ... fades back to red. Sentiment for most equities remains rather negative.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 12:38:14 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 12:36:16 PM

First OEX Keltner resistance now at 559.12, now being tested, with the ten-minute 21-ema that's been holding as resistance all day currently at 559.53.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 12:32:59 PM

Earlier the SOX had formed an inverse H&S at the bottom of its decline, but as the neckline was tested, the SOX fell back instead of confirming. It may be just pulling back into a deeper, second right shoulder, or the formation could be dissolving.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 12:31:06 PM

The advdec line is still headed down.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 12:29:07 PM

Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 185.66 -2.81% ... major breakdown today. Trending lower regression support at 180.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 12:26:03 PM

QQQQ has just rolled over from a test of the 7200 tick SMA from belo, and is now breaking the previous low, printing 35.72. Channel support is down to 35.66 for the 30 min cycle, 60 min support at 35.60. My guess is that we're seeing the 60 min cycle print its bottom, and that this sideways range should lead to the overdue intraday cycle upphases- provided that the current lows hold, and that QQQQ can eventually break the 36.00 resistance line.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 12:22:53 PM

If the OEX is going to head lower, it needs to break through the nearby support. Resistance overhead is beginning to thin, so traders should be aware of bounce potential. A strong thrust lower might change the Keltner arrangement, however.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 12:18:56 PM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $35.77 -0.80%, AAPL $38.33 -6.6%, SPY $116.95 -0.29%, INTC $22.57 -1.09%, MSFT $24.97 -0.27%, CSCO $17.95 -0.22%, JDSU $1.51 +2.02%, PFE $27.48 +0.73%, ORCL $12.19 -0.57%, SUNW $3.94 -1.99%

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 12:17:53 PM

Thought I'd already posted this: The OEX has now dropped down to Keltner support from 558.18-558.45. That support is firmer than it was earlier, so may hold this time. So far, first Keltner resistance holds, too, so one or the other is going to have to break eventually . . . or maybe not. This is opex Thursday, and the OEX could just trade sideways all ay.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 12:12:47 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 12:05:24 PM

QQQQ has just lost the 7200 tick SMA at 35.79, heading for a test of 30 min channel support at 35.70. Declining volume is leading advancing volume on the Nasdaq 2.3:1- breadth is stronger than it was on the last drop to these levels, but still negative. Updated 100 tick chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 12:03:38 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 12:01:31 PM

Bankruptcy fees could skyrocket - The reform bill before the House on Thursday may also make it more difficult to find legal help.


Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 11:52:04 AM

Fifteen-minute Keltner resistance and the 10-minute 21-ema at 560.05 still hold as resistance for the OEX, but that's still tentative as the OEX coils on this opex Thursday. If you read my first OEX-related post this morning, you know I'm not surprised to see this happening and especially not surprised to see it happening about now. The OEX's smallest Keltner channel on this chart still points lower, but there's a vague H&S-ish shape, if a rough one, at the bottom of the OEX's decline, perhaps showing that bulls are attempting to marshal some strength.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 11:47:35 AM

Boston Scientific (BSX) $30.21 +0.03% ... announced earlier this morning that FDA approved its Liberte coronary stent system. BSX saying it is ready to launch the product immediately in U.S.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 11:46:31 AM

QQQQ failed in its bounce 2 cents below the prior high, ticking down from 35.90, but it's so far holding above rising 7200 tick SMA support at 35.80. The short cycle upphase is stalling, while the 30 min channel has edged up, with channel support now 35.70 from its previous 35.59 level.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 11:41:09 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,170.38, DIA $103.61, QQQQ $35.86

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 11:38:40 AM

Chop, it appears to be. See my 11:33 post.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 11:37:27 AM

Human Genome Sciences (HGSI)

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 11:34:55 AM

The US Dollar Index has pulled back off its highs and is testing 85.00 support. Delayed intraday refreshable chart at this Link . Marketwatch is reporting on rumors that they strength is due to Warren Buffet's covering his dollar shorts, with analyst Sean Callow noting Berkshire Hathaway's 21.4B futures position in currencies, but adding that he has no way of knowing for sure if this is the reason behind the dollar's current strength.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 11:34:28 AM

The first Keltner resistance on the OEX's 15-minute chart did hold, and the OEX now heads down, toward support that appears to be firming from 558.37-558.70. Now we get to see if that scenario of more chop is fulfilled, possibly chop that still heads the OEX lower, or if the OEX goes ahead and breaks to the downside again and then meets that 556-ish downside target.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 11:32:01 AM

Qualcomm (QCOM) $33.51 +1.85% ... h/o/d

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 11:26:03 AM

Crude oil is firm, up 1.29% at 50.875 here, and bonds are weaker, with TNX up to a 0.6 bp loss at 4.368%.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 11:22:38 AM

I'd qualify the first Keltner resistance as still holding on the OEX, but tentatively. The 10-minute 21-ema, shown on a chart on my 11:15 post, definitely still holds as resistance. But will there be a new low? That, the Keltner charts don't show clearly. This climb looks just like the last bear flag climb, but . . . we just have to wait and see.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 11:16:06 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link Wednesday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 11:16:05 AM

Although the OEX didn't pull back to close under the first Keltner resistance, it did pull back to close at that first Keltner resistance.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 11:15:20 AM

Here's a 10-minute chart showing the role that the 21-ema may be playing in the OEX's trading pattern today: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 11:13:18 AM

QQQQ's 30 min channel has turned up- bulls need to see price hold above the still-declining 7200 tick SMA at 35.77. The 30 and 60 min channel tops should meet at 35.99, which is the key area needed to confirm or deny the validity of the current bounce. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 11:35:13 AM

The OEX is breaking above that first Keltner resistance, as it did temporarily the first 15-minute period of the day, and bears would like to see it move down by the close of the 15-minute period, as it did during that first 15-minute period. The higher Keltner resistance, from 561.38-562.29, has softened but may still be strong enough to turn back the OEX.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 11:11:31 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 401.95 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 11:09:28 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,172.43, DIA $103.79, QQQQ $35.88

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 11:08:58 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 11:08:03 AM

So far, first Keltner resitance, currently at 559.68, holds. Bears want it to hold on 15-minute closes.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 11:07:50 AM

QQQQ has heavy volume today, 68.8M shares traded so far, better than half the rising average daily volume of 98.9M. Yesterday saw 109.1M QQQQs change hands.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 11:06:11 AM

May crude oil is up .55 at 50.775 here, off a high of 51, while ten year bonds have weakened, TNX up to a 1.2 bp loss. Updated daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Tab Gilles : 4/14/2005 11:04:51 AM

TRAN hitting 200 ma Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 11:01:34 AM

First Keltner OEX resistance is being tested. Both next resistance and next support are softening somewhat, so it's difficult to judge which will hold.

Tab Gilles : 4/14/2005 11:00:50 AM

MURPHY OIL (MUR) Hitting buy zone, taking partial position. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 10:58:57 AM

Swing trade bearish put close out alert let's close out one (1) of the Apple Computer AAPL July $42.50 Puts (QAA-SV) at the bid of $5.40. AAPL $39.05 -4.84% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 10:56:33 AM

Despite the fact that 7200 tick SMA resistance held back the current push so far, a short cycle upphase has kicked off and the 30 min cycle channel has ticked up to a sideways bias. A break above 35.83 QQQQ shpuld generate upticks in that timeframe and would target the current channel high, which intersects the declining 60 min channel top at 35.96.

Tab Gilles : 4/14/2005 10:55:29 AM

XLB Link Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 10:55:34 AM

Next Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart is at 559.70.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 10:53:15 AM

Maverick Tube (MVK) $30.13 -0.95% ... off session low of $29.74.

Tab Gilles : 4/14/2005 10:53:12 AM

A few weeks ago the markets were all concerned about inflation...would the Fed do a 50 basis point hike?...$105 per barrel oil!!!!

Waa happen'd???

Now it's global slow down, no inflation, Fed maybe doing one more 1/4 point hike, weak sales report and low consumer confidence. Oil flirting with $50, $CRB down, gold down, major equity selloff????

Question is now have things really changed? Or is this an over reaction and a opportunity to buy?

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 10:52:35 AM

Oil Service (OSX.X) 134.98 +0.74% ... reversing earlier losses.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 10:50:50 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,460 -5.09% ... rails under pressure with BNI $47.72 -7.14%, NSC $31.64 -5.49%, CSX 38.96 -4.19%, UNP $64.60 -4.13%, CNI 57.61 -4.09% ... PWX $13.98 +1.74% and FLA $40.51 +0.02% bucking weakness.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 10:46:37 AM

The OEX preserves the breakdown signal with closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 558.97, but the spring higher on the last 15-minute period, from the 200-ema, is a bit troublesome to those in bearish positions, and echoes my concern about choppiness once those 200-ema and -sma are reached. Bears want to see continued 15-minute closes beneath that Keltner line or at least beneath the one currently at 559.64.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 10:47:01 AM

With the 30 min cycle buried in oversold territory, ditto the short cycle oscillators, the odds favor a base forming on an intraday basis for QQQQ. There are short cycle bullish divergences for the TRIX and Macd on the last low, but QQQQ has a lot of overhead resistance built up. A break of 35.85 would clear the 7200 tick SMA resistance and turn the 30 min channel up, but bulls need to see 35.90-.93 break to kick off a new upphase. If this bounce fails, next channel support below the lows is holding at 35.59.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 10:40:53 AM

Sell Program Premiums so far today ... 10:00-10:05, 10:10-10:15, 10:25-10:30, 10:30-10:35.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 10:38:39 AM

The weakness in the Dow transports is troublesome given the decline in oil this morning, though May crude is now up .25 at 50.475. Volume breadth is solidly negative so far, with declining volume leading advancing volume 2.2:1 on the NYSE and 3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 10:37:00 AM

Advdec line still dropping.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 10:35:37 AM

Those who might have entered a new bearish OEX position on a rollover and breakdown from the bear flag this morning need to be careful with their positions as the 200-ema is tested. They want to see continued 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 558.99, and need to have profit-protecting plans in place from now, down to the downside Keltner target, now at 556.11. One possible scenario I had in mind for today was for a drop toward that Keltner target, but maybe just "toward" as the OEX chopped around near the 200-ema and -sma. Of course, it's possible that a new downside target will be created, but this just seems like a prime chop zone the OEX enters now.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 10:33:27 AM

QQQQ is back to the prior low here, holding the 36.67 line. The 30 min cycle is trending in overbought, with channel support down to 35.59, the 161.8% fib extension of yesterday's decline, if the current low fails. 7200 tick SMA resistance is down to 35.90.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 10:32:56 AM

The OEX is below Tuesday's low, testing the 200-ema.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 10:28:23 AM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 836.26 -0.61% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 10:28:19 AM

For reference, the OEX's 200-ema is at 557.72 and the 200-sma is at 554.15.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 10:27:51 AM

SOX at 396.70.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 10:25:00 AM

Here's another do-or-die time as the OEX hovers just above Tuesday's low but underneath the breakdown level on the 15-minute Keltner chart. Bears want to see 15-minute closes continue to be below the Keltner line currently at 559.22.

Tab Gilles : 4/14/2005 10:24:52 AM


Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 10:22:23 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 10:22:26 AM

Nymex May crude has bounced from a low of 49.65m back to 50.10 here. Ten year treasuries are holding their gains, TNX down 1.8 bps at 4.356% here. 2-day chart of May crude at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 10:16:33 AM

Even as the daily cycle for QQQQ rolls over, bollinger channel support is at 35.93, suggesting that the 30 min cycle corrective bounce is overdue. 36.71 is next confluence, below which the 35.50 area on the daily chart is in play if the current levels don't hold. With price below all intraday channel supports, the bulls should be pushing back by now. 7200 tick SMA resistance is down to 36.00.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 10:16:18 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 10:16:13 AM

Downside breakout signal confirmed on the OEX, but just barely, as I had surmised.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 10:15:20 AM

The OEX falls toward a test of yesterday's low. Tuesday's low is 558.14, and that could be potential support, too. A 15-minute close below 559.34 will create a new breakdown signal, downside target 556.30, but there's not much time until the end of this 15-minute period, and the breakdown signal might be only barely confirmed. If you're in a bearish play on the rollover, remember that downside might be limited, and watch the 558 level and have a plan in mind already for how you'll deal with 556.29. There's lots of opportunity for chop with the 200-ema just below, before the downside Keltner target, and the 200-sma just below that.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 10:11:01 AM

Nymex May crude oil just lost 50, down to 49.925, a session low.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 10:10:13 AM

QQQQ failed from a lower intraday low at 36.06 and is printing a new low at 35.88. 30 min channel support is down to 35.84, with 7200 tick SMA resistance down to 36.10. Price is back below the 60 min channel in a trending move.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 10:09:30 AM

It looks as if the OEX's bear-flag support may be breaking. Needs to be confirmed by a new low and a Keltner breakdown.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 10:08:35 AM

Caught on the telephone.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 10:05:47 AM

Gold and silver are holding their losses, -6.20 or 1.44% at 424.90 for June gold, -.184 or 2.54% for silver at 7.047. HUI and XAU are down 2.74% and 2.51% respectively. Daily gold chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 10:05:06 AM

First Keltner resistance holds on the OEX again.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 10:03:50 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 10:01:04 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,173.27, DIA $104.00, QQQQ $36.02

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 9:57:19 AM

Following its earlier 10B 14-day repo, the Fed's open market desk has just announced a huge 13.5B overnight repo, which refunds the 10.25B expiring and leaves a net add of 3.25B for the day.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 9:55:45 AM

The SOX has been testing 400 this morning, as others may have noted already. It's currently at 400.35. I think we can safely say that whether the SOX's consolidation pattern was more properly a rectangular one or a broadening one, the SOX has broken down out of that formation. Formations of this type generally form in the middle of a movement, so the SOX might have about equal movement down after breaking out of this month-long consolidation pattern as it did before beginning that consolidation. Scary thought, isn't it? Don't assume, however, that it would be a straight-down movement even if it does occur, and this 400 level has both psychological and historical significance.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 9:55:12 AM

VIX.X 13.14 -1.27% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 10.49, 11.89, Piv = 12.66, 14.06, 14.83.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 9:53:39 AM

HMO Index (HMO.X) 1,341.74 -2.55% ... sector loser early.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 9:53:15 AM

RLX is lower this morning, but still not yet violating Tuesday's low. The chart looks ugly, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 9:52:38 AM

QQQQ is back to the broken 60 min channel bottom at 36.05, with the wavelet cycle oscillator reaching overbought on the bounce. The trending short cycle oscillators are only showing a slight uptick so far, and it will take a break of the previous high at 36.12 to get them back on a buy signal. 30 min channel support is down to 35.86, 7200 tick SMA resistance up at 36.20.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 9:50:37 AM

Most Actives .... AAPL $39.50 -3.77%, QQQQ $36.03 -0.08%, INTC $22.71 -0.52%, KMG $80.97 +9.45%, PFE $27.62 +1.24%, SPY $117.45 +0.12%, AMD $16.67 -2.22%, CSCO $17.96 -0.27%, AMAT $15.55 +0.64%.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 9:50:20 AM

So far, the Keltner line near 560.70 has been holding as resistance, but the OEX perhaps does appear to be forming up into a likely bear flag climb, as I had hoped would happen. Support near 559.55 is firming up. Resistance near 562 (561.86-562.55, currently) is softening a little, but still looks firmer than support . . . so far. Watch the shape of the rise and the direction of the advdec line. If you're looking for a rollover bearish entry today--somewhat riskier than usual, perhaps--you don't want to see a big push higher, unless it's quickly reversed, but a measured back-and-forth movement up to next resistance.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 9:44:35 AM

Advdec line still dropping.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 9:43:54 AM

Session lows for gold and silver here, -13.10 or 3.04% on a sudden spike as I typed, back to a 5.70 loss at 425.40. HUI is down 1.96% at 187.3, XAU -1.95% at 88.37. Looks like a huge stop run there for a few seconds- will pull up a 3-tick chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 9:42:13 AM

I sure would like to see a push up to OEX 562-562.60, as I know there's strong resistance there, but I don't know whether that's going to happen. If the OEX just drops from here, a 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 559.69 (it will drop slightly as the OEX does) will set up a new downside target near 556.50, but there's Tuesday's low to get through, so that's not a comfortable new bearish entry, especially as I'm worried about a slightly-down-mostly-choppy trading day as the OEX chops around near its 200-ema and -sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 9:39:29 AM

QQQQ is down to 35.93 here, breaking the uptick in the oversold 30 min cycle. It could just be a throwunder, as the keltner violations suggest, but the intraday and 30 min cycle trend is down and the picture looks bearish below previous resistance at 36.12, oversold or not.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 9:38:24 AM

First Keltner resistance encountered does hold. The OEX is going down to test weak Keltner support just above 559.55, but it hasn't yet created a new downside breakout signal and could be forming a bear flag.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 9:32:34 AM

As Keltner charts indicated might happen, the OEX heads up in early trading. (See my 8:52 post.) It's about to test first Keltner resistance at about 560.90, with it yet being uncertain whether that will hold. If that doesn't, resistance near 562-562.60 looks firm enough to hold, barring a strong buy program to thrust it through that resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 9:30:49 AM

The 30 min cycle oscillator is twitching higher from oversold, against the ongoing 60 min downphase and the new daily cycle stochastic bearish cross. This is the same setup as yesterday's close. QQQQ should take a corrective/sideways bounce from here- provided that yesterday's lows, now the 30 min cycle bottom- don't get violated by more than a few cents or for longer than a short minute or two.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 9:27:23 AM

DJNW ... Brazil Feb. retail sales +1.32% on year, +9.95% over last 12 months.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 9:24:00 AM

Popular, Inc. (BPOP) $24.08 ... gets a "pop" to $24.35 after reporting quarterly earnings of $0.58 (ex-items), which is well above consensus estimates of $0.48.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 9:21:43 AM

Pepsico (PEP) $53.63 ... higher at $54.50 after world's No. 2 soft drink company, said quarterly profit rose 13% on strength in its international business and price hikes on products sold by its North American beverage unit.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 9:17:44 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $41.05 ... lower at $38.48 and atop this morning's most active list. Decline attributed to weaker-than-expected revenue revenue forecast, raising cocnerns about the outlook for companies' profits and valuation.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 9:15:04 AM

The Fed's open market desk has 20.25B in various repos expiring today, and has so far announced a 10B 14-day repo. The remaining 10.25B will be addressed at their mid-morning announcement at 10AM.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 9:14:14 AM

Kerr McGee (KMG) $73.97 ... jumps to $82.39 in early morning trade. Company saying it will buy back up to $4 billion in stock. Icahn group purchases 60,000 shares.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2005 9:11:56 AM

DJNW .... House Panel Passes Comprehensive Energy Bill.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 8:55:25 AM

The US Dollar Index broke 85 resistance last night and is holding above it this morning: Link . Daily chart of the June DX contract at this Link shows an early abort to the daily cycle downphase, with the oscillators on a bullish kiss here.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 8:52:44 AM

Like many other indices, the OEX erased most of Tuesday's gains yesterday, yet held just above Tuesday's low. Also like many others, it threatens to break down out of a recent consolidation pattern, likely a bear flag on the OEX, but maybe just didn't quite do it Wednesday. The failure to break over the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the year's high corroborates the impression that the climb of the year's low could be a bear flag.

The OEX also barely avoided a new Keltner downside signal Wednesday, which would have been completed by a 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 559.83. Such a breakdown would have set a tentative downside target of 556.61, below the 200-ema at 557.71 and above the 200-sma at 554.12, and also above the March low of 555.05.

Thinking about the big decline Wednesday, the presence of those 200-ema's and -sma's, and the location of a potential downside target-if it's confirmed-between them and adding in the sometimes tendency for indices to be pinned by midday on opex Thursday, I'm wondering if there might not be some follow-through of the downside today, but follow-through that's limited in scope.

Here's what the 15-minute Keltner channels suggest: unless there's a gap lower, the OEX may attempt an early bounce, with first resistance at 560.98 but with much stronger resistance near 562.22-562.63, with that resistance perhaps strong enough to turn the OEX lower if the first resistance doesn't. Take a look at the internals before deciding if you're seeing a rollover, and be prepared for possible limited and choppy downside. Our futures spent the night trying to climb off their post-cash lows, doing so while Asian and European bourses dipped, but their climb appears to be capped, so futures activity isn't giving us strong clues. It allows for the possibility of tepid climb, because futures climbed off their lows while other bourses fell, but the near-flat-line levels now just don't give much confidence in that possibility of a tepid bounce.

If the OEX should break above that massed resistance near 562.22-562.63, resistance thins and bears should stand back. Since the OEX's climb still has all the hallmarks of a potential bear flag, I still regretfully cannot recommend a long OEX play, especially not this late in opex week.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 8:52:28 AM

Session high for Nymex crude here at 50.575, session low for gold at 427 and euro futures, down .8% at 1.2828.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 8:34:21 AM

Equities have flipped from lightly negative to lightly positive, QQQQ now up .02 at 36.08, Ten year notes have pulled back slightly, TNX down up to a 1.4 bp loss at 4.36%.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 8:32:12 AM

Business inventories +.5% vs. .5% exp., prior .9% unrevised.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 8:32:34 AM

Initial claims fell 10K to 330K, vs. 329K exp. Prior was revised up from 334K to 340K.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 8:21:49 AM

Ten year notes are holding their gains, ZN futures at a sessionhigh of 110 7/16. TNX is down 2.3 bps at 4.351%. Daily TNX chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 8:20:03 AM

Nymex May crude oil is up a dime at 50.325 following yesterday's downside shellacking. On the daily chart, the 10-day stochastic is rolling over from its attempted upturn 2 weeks ago. While the downside bollinger violation yesterday suggests a technical bounce, bulls will want to exercise extreme caution below the broken support at the 52 level: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/14/2005 7:33:24 AM

Equities are mixed, ES trading 1176.25, NQ 1468.5, YM 10410 and QQQQ -.02 at 36.04. Gold is down 2.90 at 428.20, silver -.081 at 7.15, ten year notes +5/32 110 12/32.

We await the 8:30 releases of initial claims, est. 330K and Business inventories, est. +.5%.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2005 7:09:26 AM

Good morning. The IMF, the International Monetary Fund, yesterday said that global economic growth would slow to 4.3% for the current year, down from last year's 5.1% growth. The IMF also characterized the risks as being tilted to the downside. With Japan's growth outlook cut even more drastically by the IMF, the Nikkei declined again, as did other Asian markets. European markets currently turn lower. Our futures spent all evening climbing off the post-cash-close low, and are now near the flat-line level. As of 6:46 EST, gold was down $2.90, and crude, up $0.18. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

In April's update on the economy, the Japanese government sounded more upbeat about consumer spending, according to the interpretation by one source, but the IMF didn't: the IMF lowered Japan's growth forecast for the year to 0.8% growth from the previous forecast of 2.6%. By the close of the morning session, the Nikkei had already posted a triple-digit loss. The Nikkei continued falling into the early afternoon session, and then climbed off the low of the day to close down 74.35 points or 0.64%, at 11,563.17. Chip-makers declined, influenced by ASML's outlook and AMD's results. Rancor between Japan and China appears to be growing as the Japanese government granted some companies the right to drill in an area of the East China Sea that China claims as its own.

Other Asian markets traded lower, too. The Taiwan Weighted dropped 0.36%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 2.79%. Samsung will report Friday, and stocks sold off ahead of those earnings. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.25%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.20%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.11%.

European markets trade lower, too, with chip-related stocks weak in Europe. In the U.K., retailers GUS and Woolworths dropped after offering disappointing results or outlooks. Woolworths is not a FTSE 100 component, but its outlook, including that of a challenging retail environment, damaged sentiment. Other stocks reacted to earnings or updates, some strongly. German electronics components maker Epcos plunged 6.2% at one point after reporting a loss and saying that it might see a loss for the year, and Rolls Royce saw a 2.3% gain at one point after raising expectations for profits, although that resulted from an adoption of new accounting standards. Dutch biotechnology firm Crucell has secured a contract to manufacture a vaccine against Ebola, and was rising in early trading. Air France dropped after announcing a euro convertible bonds sales to finance ground equipment and new planes.

As of 7:00 EST, the FTSE 100 had dropped 9.80 points or 0.20%, to 4,951.00. The CAC 40 fell 6.79 points or 0.16%, to 4,110.06. The DAX had fallen 8.85 points or 0.20%, to 4,396.84.

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