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OI Technical Staff : 4/15/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 5:16:26 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 5:00:25 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Today's Activity ... Sold two (2) Apple Computer AAPL May $32.50 Puts (AAQ-QZ) at the bid of $0.55. One (1) would be covered, but the other considered NAKED at this point. Day traded long shares of Bema Gold (BGO) at $2.29, but was stopped at $2.26 despite dollar weakness. Day traded short shares of Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) at $5.23, missed target ($5.10) by a penny, and was stopped at $5.18. WEEKLY Trade Blotter of CLOSED trades at this Link

Jim Brown : 4/15/2005 4:09:09 PM

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Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 4:08:49 PM

The 30 and 60 min charts look like the price flew into a brick wall and collapsed. QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles are buried in oversold, trending, and the daily chart reflects the damage as 3 tall red candles- I believe a 3 black crows pattern- with the new downphase underway with plenty of room to run. On the bullish side, today's entire candle printed below 20 day bollinger support, and while the daily cycle is not bullish, that break means that the decline has gotten ahead of itself. A break above 35.12 would reverse the short cycle trend, above 35.20 would kick off a min cycle upphase, and above 36.33 would reverse the intraday losses and get the 60 min channel in gear to the upside. However, below 35, there's little to the technical case for the bulls other than extreme oversold readings and that bollinger break.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 3:55:54 PM

QQQQ's about 100K shares short of yesterday's huge volume, currently... just surpassed it now at 159M shares. Amazing.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 3:56:18 PM

That OEX S/R zone supported at about 555.50, marked on this old chart did prove to be important, as the OEX dropped heavily after crossing it. (Note: remember that all the annotations are old on this chart, the blue ones made in November, the red, just after the first of the year): Link Sometimes it pays to keep those old charts around. I overrated the importance of those 200-sma's today. I guess all the consolidation was done before they were touched on the OEX and SPX and the decisions made when the consolidation patterns broke to the downside.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 3:52:37 PM

30 min channel support just got tested at 34.70 QQQQ, 60 min channel support broken 5 cents above it.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 3:52:20 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.41 -1.73% ... breaks below April "Max Pain" of $24.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 3:50:38 PM

QQQQ -2.25% at 34.75, SOX -3.44% at 382.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 3:46:22 PM

QQQQ is printing a new session low at 34.84, volume now up to 147M shares and 30 min channel support fading down to 34.70.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 3:43:23 PM

The OEX has weekly Keltner and historical support from 543.54-546.48. I see some historical support a big higher, near 547.50-548.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 3:39:54 PM

Closing chart of the ten year yield (TNX) at this Link with TNX going out at the low, ZN going out at the highs of the day. 2-day 50 tick chart of ZN future at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 3:35:35 PM

Bearish day trade stop alert for Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) ... the ENTIRE Position at $5.18

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 3:30:20 PM

SIRI $5.14 -3.01% ... 2.3 million in last 5-minutes. Low has been $5.11.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 3:29:07 PM

Bearish Day trade close out/adjustment alert ... close out just 1/2 of today's day trade short should Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) trade target of $5.10.

Jim Brown : 4/15/2005 3:26:03 PM

Jeff, I have to admit I have thought about that several times over the last couple days. However, I believe that the majority of this drop is tax related. Today is tax day and I am sure there is a lot of selling to cover those tax checks.

However, we have broken numerous key technical levels and we may not recover. The reason for the drop is no longer material. It could now take on a self fulfilling life of its own as we move into the "sell in May and go away" period.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 3:25:36 PM

On Wednesday, I had thought the RUT might steady near 586, for example, and it's at 582.57 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 3:24:09 PM

The COMP, SPX and DOW have even exceeded downside targets I'd suggested in Wednesday's Wraps, although I didn't see that happening this week, for sure. I'd thought that if the indices did get to those downside targets this week, such as the SPX's 200-sma, they'd consolidate there for a while, especially since this was opex week. Targets are being overrun.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 3:24:10 PM

I believe Black Monday also took place following an op-ex Friday...

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 3:23:14 PM

Who's thinking .... "Black Monday?" right about now?

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 3:22:20 PM

NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) alert 6,983 -1.14%. A close below 6,981.74 would put next level of downside risk to 6,835.52

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 3:18:27 PM

Session lows for ES and YM here, with QQQQ 4 cents above the low. Yesterday's huge volume has generated shocking little support, as did October 2004's range. A close near or at the lows would be maximally disheartening for this week's bulls and for the weekend newspaper headlines as well.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 3:17:49 PM

TRIN 1.52 +24.59% ... session high and jumps above DAILY R1. Sellers look eager toward the close.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 3:17:20 PM

The TRAN still has not hit a new LOD, still a divergence from some other non-tech indices, but small comfort to those who wanted to see the OEX bounce, for example.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 3:12:34 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 3:04:20 PM

June gold is down to a 1 dollar gain at 426.70, silver -.04 at 7.023 after getting shellacked earlier this week. Although the data is spotty for this contract before last autumn, the daily one-year chart puts this week's damage in perspective. The uptrend was violated on the fast intraday spike below 422 (though not on a closing basis). Today's thin green candle (if you squint) is back in the rising range. The old 433 number, currently key confluence and the 50 day EMA, is again the one to watch: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 3:04:18 PM

From my first OEX-related post this morning: I, for one, wouldn't be surprised to see a washout to that Keltner channel target and the 200-sma. The daily Keltner chart even suggests a downside target a bit lower, from 551-553.70, but not necessarily to be reached today. Well, it was reached today. I'm not much for risky, catch-the-turn moves--not for options plays anyway--so I wouldn't have been suggesting a bullish play today, but I did think today's candle would likely end up with one of the forms indicating indecision: doji, long-legged doji, etc. Doesn't look much like that will happen today unless the OEX zooms up past the previous HOD and then drops back near the opening level. If the OEX just climbs from here back toward the opening level, without a new high, the candle will have sprung up from support, not a candle indicating indecision at all. If the OEX ends the day near its current level, that's not a candle indicative of indecision, either. So my supposition that the day's candle would indicate some indecision is likely going to be wrong.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 3:02:34 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 2:58:26 PM

The TRAN has still not reached a new LOD. I watch the TRAN sometimes as an indicator index, but this is tepid hope for those who want the bleeding to stop.

Jim Brown : 4/15/2005 2:57:14 PM

Good point Linda. It shows there is more than one way to enter profitable trades using the 100 period average.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 2:56:36 PM

Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $5.15 x $5.16 ... Most active option is the May $5 put (QXO-AQ) $0.25 x $0.30 with 1,296 traded (OI 3,171). This looks to me like PUT selling. If memory serves me correct, Howard Stern is supposed to start broadcasting with them in May. Remember how stock shot up (we were long) when it was announced that Mr. Stern was coming on board?

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 2:57:00 PM

Jim (see Jim's 2:46 post on the Futures side, replied to here because it references the Dow) , add in the 21-ema as I think you or one of the readers working with your system did at one point, and you'd have been able to use the OEX's 10-minute 21/100/130-ema's to great advantage this week. Below the 100/130-ema's tell you bearish, and touches of and rollovers from the 21-ema gives you new entries, especially when combined with CCI zero-line reversals. Link We all have to thank you for pointing out the importance of those -ema's across several time frames. The steeper the move, the smaller time frame I use. The OEX has behaved the same way.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 2:52:13 PM

Bond Market set to close in 8 minutes. Be al_rt for VOLATILITY!!!!!

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 2:52:09 PM

Yesterday saw very heavy volume of 158.9M QQQQ shares- today we're up to 117.8 ahead of 3PM.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 2:49:21 PM

May crude oil caught a bounce at session's end, but still closed -1.12% at 50.55. 2-day 30 tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 2:47:29 PM

Another small difference is that the number of decliners is not continuing to move higher as the indices move lower. The number of decliners has been in a tight range since about 11:30. Unfortunately, the number of advancers isn't showing a strong climb, although perhaps a gentle upward slope.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 2:45:42 PM

So much for the short cycle upphase- rolling over for QQQQ now with the prior low broken. Channel support is down to 34.80, below the current 34.87 low. A close in this vicinity would bode very ill for Monday morning.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 2:45:31 PM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) with QCharts' DAILY/WEEKLY Pivot levels along with today's BGO trade observations. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 2:44:53 PM

Smallest, tiniest sign of a difference: the TRAN, unlike the DOW, SPX and OEX, has not broken out of its latest bear-flag climb to retest the low. It's not far above that low, however . . .

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 2:42:24 PM

Once again, the OEX could not break over those two markers we've been watching since midday Wednesday. Watching as the previous LOD is tested.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 2:35:05 PM

QQQQ failed again, making a double top at the 35.14 level and edging down to test rising short cycle channel support. Below 34.98, that support will no longer be rising, and the short cycle oscillators will stall in their recent upphase. The 30 and 60 min channels are now just drifting sideways, still trending in oversold territory. Volume breadth hasn't improved, still 5.3 declining shares for each advancing.

Jim Brown : 4/15/2005 2:31:53 PM

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Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 2:27:13 PM

Wednesday when I wrote the Wrap and mentioned that a downside break out of the Dow's consolidation zone might suggest a trip down to the next Fib level at about 10,195.30, I don't think I was thinking that we'd hit that level so soon, though. Wow. That consolidation pattern was of a type that usually forms about midway down through a decline (or up through a rally), and I don't even want to think about what the Dow's downside target would be if that's true this time. Actually, that's easy, because it would be near last October's low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 2:26:59 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $101.79 -0.59% ... breadth still negative at 18:12. ... Top 5 PRICE heavyweights in order ... UTX $98.50 -1.15%, CAT $83.95 -1.69%, MMM $81.03 -1.63%, IBM $77.38 -7.49%, JNJ $69.89 +0.93%

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 2:23:10 PM

The OEX attempts to move above two key markers: the 15-minute Keltner line that has been holding it back on 15-minute closes, currently at 553.08, and the ten-minute 21-ema that has been topping most upward advances, now at 553.46. Hasn't quite managed to convincingly break through those key markers, though.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 2:19:28 PM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 84.59 -0.48% (30-minute delayed) ... has come back, or came back to test WEEKLY Pivot (84.64) 30-minutes ago.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 2:17:22 PM

QQQQ ticks up here, peeking above 7200 tick SMA resistance again. The 30 min channel top has edged 2 cents higher to 35.22. A short cycle upphase is in progress, but needs to clear 35.13 in order to breathe a bit- so far, all have truncated before they could get moving.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 2:15:46 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 2:14:46 PM

The fifteen-minute Keltner charts are showing some tendency for resistance lines to soften a little, perhaps . . . but only just a tepid perhaps . . . suggesting that the OEX might find it a little easier to rise again. So far, there's been no change in trend and this is tepid evidence at best.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 2:10:10 PM

Volume breadth is still abysmal for the Nasdaq, 5.4 declining shares for each advancing, 3.2 on the NYSE.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 2:04:30 PM

Sell Prog. Premium .... SPX 1,152.34, DIA $101.66, QQQQ $35.02

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 2:03:56 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link Note: per trader request, I substituted June Gold Futures (30-minute delayed) with the StreetTracks Gold Trust (GLD), which will track the spot price of gold.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 1:59:16 PM

This pullback for QQQQ will let us know if there's hope for a bounce or not- if it reverses above the previous low, then we'll get another one of those bullish divergent short cycle upphases, and a stronger attack on 7200 tick SMA resistance at 35.10. A break to new lows will obviously dash that setup. The last failure within the downtrend is why Jesse Livermore said that he'd rather buy higher than lower- once the trend is confirmed.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 1:59:11 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert ... on Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $5.14 -3.01% ... to $5.18.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 1:57:25 PM

No change in trend yet for the OEX. The ten-minute 21-ema, still at 553.57 is still capping upside gains, while the 15-minute Keltner line currently at 553.18 is mostly capping 15-minute closes. Watching for a change in trend, but haven't seen it yet.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 1:55:45 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,152.96, DIA $101.68, QQQQ $35.00

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 1:51:48 PM

May crude oil sliding sideways in negative territory, -.85 at 50.275 after printing a nominal new low at 49.975, the second time this week below 50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 1:46:00 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.84 (unch) ... "junk bonds" look to be hanging in there, with PHF above $8.75, but not yet finding the strength/conviction among buyers above $9.08. Treasuries getting gobbled up with the benchmark 10-year yield ($TNX.X) down 5.0 bp at 4.308%.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 1:40:51 PM

QQQQ is peeking its head above 7200 tick SMA resistance here for the first time in hours. 30 min channel resistance is at 35.20, currently.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 1:37:53 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,154.36, DIA $101.80, QQQQ $35.06

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 1:37:22 PM

I don't know about you... but when putting on a new short position in ANY stock at this point, I feel like I'm pushing a carrot into a juicer. Still, get the feeling that there aren't a lot of buyers willing to take on risk and catch the falling knife.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 1:37:34 PM

The total put to call ratio is over 1.4 here, and the equity put to call ratio itself is over 1.15. Like the huge TRINQ reading reported by PcQuote and which was probably just a bad tick, these are extreme levels and, like all the oscillator and channel signals, are screaming "bounce." However, as discussed earlier this week, in exceptional cases, these sensitive indicators can also be signalling a bigger wave of selling/fear, such as we saw in the bounce off the 2002 October low, when the TRINQ was buried at extreme levels for days. This is all complicated further by today's op-ex expiry, but these indicators are telling us that these are dangerous levels for bears as well as bulls. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 1:30:36 PM

The OEX inches up closer to the 200-sma. It's again testing that Keltner line that's been stopping it (mostly) on 15-minute closes, with that line currently at 553.25.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 1:26:56 PM

QQQQ needs to break the prior confluence at 35.06, followed by descending 7200 tick resistance at 35.12 in order to get a short at the 35.33 level that held back all the morning bounce attempts.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 1:24:27 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 1:22:19 PM

Gartner reports a 10.3% increase in worldwide PC shipments for Q1 2005 over Q1 2004, with 50.4M units shipped compared with 45.7M. Relative weakness in the US market was balanced by faster than expected growth in other regions.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 1:20:58 PM

For reference, the OEX's 200-sma is at 554.12.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 1:13:27 PM

The OEX is pushing up through what had looked to be strong resistance on the three-minute Keltner chart. I'd be tempted to conclude that a rebound might be underway, but this was what happened early this morning, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 1:12:21 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 1:10:05 PM

OEX 551 held as support. Temporarily.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 1:08:51 PM

01:00 Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 1:06:01 PM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $40.23 +0.04% ... holding 4-cent gain.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 1:04:35 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert ... for Bema Gold (BGO) 2.26 -0.44%

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 1:03:45 PM

Tab, I was too scared to use that word (see Tab's 1:01 post), so I used "wash" instead early this morning.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 1:02:47 PM

I seem to remember OEX 550.80 being important, so you might look for potential support at that level. Again today, the touch of and rollover from the Keltner resistance line that has been providing resistance for several days would have been a good bearish entry, but with that previous low of the day waiting just below, it wasn't one that I suggested. I thought that there was too much of a chance of an equal low.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 1:02:38 PM

On the daily chart, today's QQQQ candle is entirely below the 20-day bollinger support, telling us what we already know: price is in a strong trending move and is overdue for a bounce. For what it's worth, lower daily bollinger support was at 35.50.

Tab Gilles : 4/15/2005 1:01:20 PM

Have to go out of town, not posting for the rest of the day. But, I was thinking that no one had mentioned this word today as of yet????

CAPITULATION

Enjoy your weekend. -Tab

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 1:00:19 PM

Daily Keltner support has descended to 550.45, on a daily closing basis.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:58:14 PM

Sirius (SIRI) $5.17 -2.45% ... has slipped below WEEKLY S2 $5.20 and DAILY S2 $5.18. Using lower 5-MRTs here.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 12:57:03 PM

New LOD as the OEX moves further into the 551-553.70 potential support zone. Keltners were telling the truth when they showed that support was sinking lower.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:56:45 PM

Bema Gold (BGO) $2.27 x $2.28

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:56:28 PM

Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) $182.59 -0.23% ... slip red despite dollar weakness. dx00y 84.84 -0.61% (30-min delayed).

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 12:53:24 PM

Session lows across the board. QQQQ 30 and 60 min channel support is down to 34.90. It took a day to break the October 2004 lows, now testing September's levels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:51:08 PM

Extreme Networks (EXTR) $4.26 -14.6% ... getting "garage saled" of late.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 12:48:11 PM

ZN bond futures have pulled back up off the lows, with TNX down 4.6 bps at 4.312%. 2-day ZN chart at this Link . Despite this strength, gold and the miners are giving back more of their gains, with HUI down to a 15 cent gain at 183.17, XAU up 20 cents at 87.38.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 12:46:05 PM

The OEX is still not showing any strength on a 15-minute Keltner basis. It's trying to push above resistance, and may do so at any time, but hasn't yet.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:45:03 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Tab Gilles : 4/15/2005 12:44:55 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Looking more and more likely to reach $88 downside p/o. (Follow-up to 10:09:41 AM post) Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 12:43:17 PM

There's been no improvement in the Nasdaq's breadth, with 5 declining shares for each advancing, compared with 2.7 for the NYSE. PcQuote reports the TRINQ at 4.23, off its 5.46 readings I saw earlier, while DTN's feed reports a more believeable 2.19. Volume is very high for this time of day, 81M shares traded so far. With all the intraday cycles buried in trending oversold moves, with the intraday trend down and the daily cycle in a strong downphase, dip buying is a tempting but potentially lethal game. The first sign of intraday strength will be a break above the 35.33 resistance line- 7200 tick SMA resistance is at 35.15.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 12:41:49 PM

The OEX's 10-minute 21-ema, instrumental in trading since Wednesday, is now at 554.64.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:32:48 PM

Bearish day trade short alert ... for Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $5.23 -1.50% here, stop $5.27, target $5.08.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 12:32:42 PM

Back from a system crash- missed the last few minutes of data.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 12:31:07 PM

The OEX is trying to form that double bottom. I said pre-market that today might be a better day to test paper trades than to actually trade, and it's seeming to turn out that way today. Despite that, however, we're seeing the tests that need to be performed. Even a short-term bullish trader needs to see a retest of the previous low to see if that was it. Not sure yet that it is, not with the number of decliners continuing to increase all day, but the test goes on.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:28:56 PM

QQQQ $35.03 -1.46% ... lowering a stop to $35.40 on a remaining short I carried over in personal account from yesterday. MONTHLY S2 $34.48 would be a possible spike target low from here.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 12:22:56 PM

As the three-minute Keltner charts suggested earlier, the OEX wasn't through testing the previous LOD. Support is trying to firm on the three-minute chart, but the 15-minute chart still shows the possibility (probability?) that the OEX will reach a slightly lower low. Remember that this support zone extends down to 551 according to the daily Keltner chart.

Tab Gilles : 4/15/2005 12:17:24 PM

Jonathan...NEM finding support at $40. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:16:18 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 12:16:05 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link , with price chopping sideways below the pennant apex and 7200 tick SMA resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 12:14:53 PM

Gold has advanced while the miners are pulling back, June gold +1.80 at 427.50 and HUI +.77% at 184.43, XAU +.72% at 87.81. The CRB is down .48 at 298.90 despite strength in copper, lean hogs, coffee and gold.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:14:16 PM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,155.72 , DIA $101.99, QQQQ $35.12 (lost track of how many today)

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 12:14:11 PM

Key OEX markers to watch are the ten-minute 21-ema, currently at 555.04, and, of course, the confirmation level for the double-bottom formation, with that at the 556.22 high of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:04:42 PM

iVillage (IVIL) $6.52 +3.98% ...

Tab Gilles : 4/15/2005 12:02:41 PM

$SPX Testing 200-ma. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 12:02:17 PM

May crude oil back down to 50.15, a dime off the lows, TNX down 3.6 bps at 4.322%. QQQQ put in a double bottom at 35.04, trying for a second bounce attempt. 35.16 remains the immediate goal, with 7200 tick SMA now down to 35.18. If it fails, both 30 and 60 min channel support are down to 35.00. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 12:02:09 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 11:58:36 AM

If the OEX does rebound from the equal low, the three-minute chart at least did show bullish divergence, but that's a big if. Keltner evidence shows resistance perhaps building.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 11:56:00 AM

Test of the OEX LOD coming up, with Keltner evidence suggesting that at least a slightly lower low could actually be hit.

Tab Gilles : 4/15/2005 11:52:48 AM

$GHA Computer Harware Index testing 200-ma. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 11:46:20 AM

QQQQ bounces back to the pennant apex. Bulls need to clear 35.16 to rule out a deadcat/return to the scene of the crime bounce. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 11:44:58 AM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 101.54 -4.18% ... getting drilled. SanDisk (SNDK) $25.66 -5.79% ... looking weak.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 11:44:13 AM

And, yes, the bear-flag break was a really break, and, yes, OEX traders apparently do need to see a retest of the low, with, hopefully, a higher low or an equal one with bullish divergence. Keltner charts just aren't giving me a lot of confidence just yet that the previous low will hold. One the 15-minute chart, that support is dropping to and below the previous LOD, but the OEX is trying to spring up anyway.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 11:43:37 AM

TRIN 1.05 -13.93% ... has been finding "support" at DAILY Pivot and 1.0 on just about every 5-minute close since 09:50-09:55.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 11:43:00 AM

Breadth has deteriorated for the Nasdaq here, with 4.8 declining shares for each advancing. The NYSE is still stronger, but is off its morning highs, 2.2 declining shares for each advancing. PcQuote reports the Nasdaq TRINQ at an astounding 5.26- if that's not a bad print, then breadth is very overweighted to the sell side here- an extreme reading.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 11:42:00 AM

VIX.X 14.97 +3.02% ... not in panic mode at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 11:41:12 AM

Stocks really getting hit here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 11:40:25 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert for Maverick Tube (MVK) $29.00 -1.22%

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 11:38:43 AM

There goes the lower pennant support, QQQQ breaking to a new low of 35.08. 30 and 60 min channel support line up at 138.2% fib line off yesterday's low. If that fails, next support is at 34.95. QQQQ is bearish below the 7200 tick SMA at 35.21 currently.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 11:33:14 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 11:28:58 AM

The OEX downtrend still hasn't changed yet, with this ten-minute 21-ema still halting upside moves except for a brief time yesterday: Link Perhaps that higher low or equal low with bullish divergence is still needed before bulls feel much confidence in sampling longs. No guarantee that they'll get their higher low or equal low, however.

Tab Gilles : 4/15/2005 11:27:55 AM

In the beginning of '05 I posted this Rydex Asset Ratio chart and my view of a nearterm top. Link

We are now seeing an inverse image of the pre-2003 decline. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 11:26:14 AM

May crude oil has pulled back from the 50.05 low, up to a .725 loss at 50.40 here. TNX has broken lower, however, TNX up to a 3.6 bps loss at 4.322%, -.83% for the day. QQQQ and the indices are coiled in their pennants just off the lows of the day.

On the one hand, the 30 and 60 min cycles need to break higher, and in the shorter timeframes there are bullish divergences galore. But the pennant is a continuation pattern, and if price continues sideways, it should eventually collide with the daily cycle downphase. The bottom line is that QQQQ needs to break 35.33, then clear 35.50, to prove that this is anything but another "b" distribution zone within the strong daily cycle downphase. It remains bearish below, and the onus remains on the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 11:24:06 AM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $2.91 -7.61% ... lower after Toshiba said it made a breakthrough step toward the day of instantly recharging lithium-ion batteries. The prototype batter can be 80% recharged in 60 seconds, rather than the three or four hours of charging currently needed.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 11:19:26 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link Thursday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 11:16:09 AM

That's almost looking like a break of the bear-flag support on the OEX. I expected a choppy rise and that's what's happening so far, but I also expected a pullback at some point, too. Not entirely sure I trust that break of the bear flag's support just yet, but if you're in a bullish play, adhere to whatever plan you made when entering it. It was risky and I'm sure each of you knows your risks parameters better than I do.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 11:06:17 AM

QQQQ testing pennant support now at 35.16.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 11:05:50 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 11:05:39 AM

We just saw another 15-minute Keltner close above the Keltner line that's been capping the OEX--mostly--on 15-minute closes. That's good news for those hoping for a climb, but it has to hold and it's not doing so as I type. It didn't yesterday. If the current bear-flag-like climb is going to retrace some proportion of the entire move from Tuesday's end-of-day high, then we should be snapping Fib brackets on that decline. The 38.2% retracement of that climb is at about 558.36, with next strongest Keltner resistance at 557.60-558.26. If in a bullish play today, I'd be watching the bear-flag's support line for a breakdown, first, but I'd also have profit-protecting plans for a test of 557.50-558.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 11:01:28 AM

QQQQ bounces from a higher low, coiled within a pennant: Link . Bulls need to see the 35.33 level taken out to rule out yet another abortive attempt.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 10:58:06 AM

Sharper Image (SHRP) $16.93 +8.38% ... spiking higher from $15.80.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 10:55:56 AM

A study of the OEX's three-minute chart shows that the OEX is indeed forming what looks to be a bear flag formation. Three-minute support is softening somewhat, but resistance doesn't look all that firm just overhead, either, so it's kind of up to the buybots as to whether they kick in or not. Above the 555.50-ish next Keltner reistance on the 15-minute chart, the next strong resistance is 557.65-558.37.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 10:57:22 AM

Brookstone (BKST) $16.30 +4.48% ... halted for trade. Specialty retailer saying it has agreed to be acquired by a consortium led by OSIM Intl. for $20.50 in cash.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 10:52:00 AM

Volume breadth has not improved for the Nasdaq since yesterday, with declining volume leading advancing 3.6:1 currently. The NYSE is stronger though- 1.6 declining shares for each advancing. GE, +2.42% here at 36.36, is certainly helping.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 10:50:15 AM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for Bema Gold (BGO) $2.29 +0.88% here, stop $2.26, target $2.37.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 10:50:03 AM

Session low for 10 year bonds, with ZN futures printing 110 5/8, TNX up to a .4 bp loss at 4.318%. Updated daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 10:47:50 AM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $40.67 +1.14% ... quick check has April "Max Pain" at $42.50 ($2.50 increments). DAILY Pivot levels ... $39.12, $39.66, Piv = $40.34, $40.88, $41.56.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 10:43:14 AM

The OEX is not holding above the Keltner line that's been stopping it on 15-minute closes since about midday Wednesday. The top of the gap is at about that same level, lending its resistance, too. Do we will need that higher or equal low with bullish divergences? Remember that my scenario for what would happen after a test of the 551-553.70 level (already occurred) was for a perhaps choppy grind higher with the day ending with some kind of indecision-type candle. Of course, markets don't care what my scenario was, but I'm just saying that I wouldn't be surprised to see a choppy rest of the day action, perhaps with a climb but then a retreat off the high of the day, too. Be careful out there.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 10:43:13 AM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 84.61 -0.45% ... climbed as high as 85.27, but didn't quite make it to 85.44. AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 185.74 +1.48% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 10:42:47 AM

Session low for May crude at 50.05, -1.05 or 2.1% just now.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 10:38:50 AM

May crude oil is down .675 here at 50.45. 2 day 30 tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 10:33:57 AM

Too early in this 15-minute period to know whether the OEX can sustain the move above the Keltner line currently at 555.73, but it's certainly trying for a move higher. Did yesterday on the 14:00 candle, too, though, and the OEX is pulling back temporarily even as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 10:33:12 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 10:32:13 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link with bullish short cycle divergences. QQQQ trying again for what has so far been impregnable resistance at 35.33- the divergences suggest that this move could do it.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 10:30:47 AM

Because of the back-and-forth action so far as the OEX climbs off the LOD, there's danger of this being some kind of measured distribution pattern such as a flag. The OEX has risen now to test the 15-minute Keltner line that has been mostly capping rises since midday Wednesday, with that line at 555.69. A sustained move above that Keltner line would be a start at a change in trend, although don't bet too much on anything holding today.

Tab Gilles : 4/15/2005 10:30:46 AM

Good point Linda...(10:23:05 AM)

Tab Gilles : 4/15/2005 10:29:32 AM

NASDAQ100 ($NDX) Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 10:28:53 AM

Though gold is up just 1.10 to 426.80 and silver is fractionally negative, the miners have caught a bid, HUI +1.55% at 185.85 and XAU +1.24% at 88.28. May crude oil is down .70 at 50.425, -1.37% for the day.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 10:23:05 AM

In a recent Traders Corner article, I wrote about the differences in semi-log charts and arithmetic charts, and detailed the log charts' usefulness in long-term charts. Here are two charts of the TRAN, originally used in that article, with the log chart showing a long-term trendline broken. Log charts sometimes show these trendline breaks sooner than arithmetic charts: log Link and arithmetic Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 10:19:35 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 10:18:25 AM

The OEX three-minute Keltner support holds tentatively, but it's only tentative so far.

Tab Gilles : 4/15/2005 10:16:43 AM

$FVX Down, EVV UP Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 10:16:29 AM

QQQQ is back to the overnight lows, the short cycle upturn reversing back down. A bounce straight from here would confirm the lows and result in another bullish divergence in this timeframe- but those cycles are no longer oversold, and so a break of the lows will have less support than at the previous test. Next support is immediately below at 35.00, while the 60 min channel bottom is down to 34.96. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 10:13:13 AM

Careful, those of you at work and not monitoring CNBC. Snow is being interviewed.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 10:11:43 AM

Pullback beginning on the OEX. The three-minute Keltner chart suggests support building from 554.29-554.56.

Tab Gilles : 4/15/2005 10:09:41 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Murphy Oil has entered a good entry point ($88/$92 range). Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 10:10:41 AM

Marc, the trouble is that liquidity tightening can come from other sources as well, such as oil costs or waning demand for bonds. Note the earlier release I posted about foreign investment in US securities declining. With the Treasury pounding out new debt issuances, it only takes a decrease in demand for that debt to raise yields. It's a very complicated picture, but this morning, bad news is helping demand for bonds. Bond bulls will be hoping that it's more than just result of speculation as to the Fed's future moves and bias.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 10:09:09 AM

Per AAPL NAKED PUT Profile alert ... what I think traders should do that HOLD long puts, is sell twice the number of NAKED PUTS you hold long (if NOT OVERLEVERAGED) per account management guidelines.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 10:06:59 AM

OEX still pausing at Keltner resistance and the top of the gap. If the OEX pulls back, as looks possible, new bulls want to see the OEX find support at Keltner support now just under 554 and just above the day's low. Bears want a new low, of course.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 10:05:03 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 10:03:58 AM

The OEX did pull back at that top-of-the-gap level, but it hasn't pulled back far yet. There's gathering Keltner resitance from 555.50-556.14. The OEX has still not maintained 15-minute closes above the Keltner line that's currently at 556.15, a line that has been stopping it (except for a brief period yesterday) on 15-minute closes since midday Wednesday. There's no change in trend by that measure, then, and so long plays continue to be risky. The OEX did enter a level of next strongest support, so new bulls who might have entered on a test of that support now want to see a higher or equal low (with bullish divergence) on any pullback now, if it should occur. My scenario for today included a washout to this morning's low or even slightly below and a possible bounce, but possibly a choppy and unpredictable bounce that results in an indecision type candle for the day. Be careful.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 10:02:29 AM

Marc, that's my thinking behind the positive reaction to the disappointing news releases. The neutral 9:15 data was greeted with a relative yawn.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 9:59:13 AM

The Fed's open market desk has just made a modest net drain of 1.5B against the whopping 13.5B in expiring repos today, announcing a 12B weekend repo for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 9:58:50 AM

VIX.X 15.17 +4.33% .... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.47, 13.43, Piv= 13.91, 14.87, 15.35.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 9:57:38 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,159.72, DIA $102.39, QQQQ $35.30

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 9:57:26 AM

QQQQ broke north of declining 7200 tick SMA resistance when it crossed 35.30, but it's struggling again with that 35.33 number. The short cycles oscillators are ticking up, and the bounce was much sharper than the decline that preceded it. Look for support at 35.17 on a pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 9:57:01 AM

Swing trade sell naked puts alert .... let's sell two (2) of the Apple Computer AAPL May $32.50 Puts (AAQ-QZ) at the bid of $0.55. AAPL $36.40 here.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 9:54:31 AM

The OEX made it handily through first Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart, scattering the next lines that had been making up resistance, but there's still gap resistance from this morning. Those taking a chance on a bullish play want to see a higher low or an equal low with bullish divergence if there's a pullback now. Bears need to keep their previous profit-protecting plan in mind, whatever that plan might have been. Keltner lines are scattered, but next resistance is near 556.17, on a 15-minute closing basis.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 9:52:16 AM

Bonds have firmed on the disappointing data, TNX now down 7.8 bps at 4.28%, a 1.79% now for the day. Updated daily chart at this Link . The steep breakaway gap should coincide with the oversold daily cycle bottom- but it should take a break above 4.34%-4.35% to print the first stochastic buy signal in this timeframe.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 9:52:08 AM

There were rumors in the forex markets this morning that the Michigan sentiment number would be low, with some saying at first that there had been a leak and then others refuting that, claiming that people were only looking at compilation of other releases to come up with a projected disappointment. That's why I didn't report it, as my source seems to report on many rumors that are never substantiated, such as yesterday's "diverted plane" rumor.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 9:51:18 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,158.53, DIA $102.42, QQQQ $35.32.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 9:49:17 AM

Michigan sentiment 88.7, est. 91.5.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 9:49:16 AM

After a rise, will we need to have a retest of the low, with a higher low or equal low with bullish divergence before bulls feel confident enough to stick in a play?

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 9:48:26 AM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart suggests first resistance just over 554, with next resistance over that near 555.70-555.90, the top of this morning's gap.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 9:44:29 AM

Because there's a new breakout signal below the OEX's largest Keltner channel on the 15-minute chart, I've turned to the 30-minute for a next target, which it suggests would be near 552. The 9:45 number may change that, either direction.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 9:44:20 AM

Cree, Inc. (CREE) $24.71 +10.87% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 9:41:07 AM

Awaiting Michigan Sentiment in 5 minutes, est. 91.5.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 9:40:55 AM

The daily Keltner support has lowered to 550.84-553.16.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 9:40:20 AM

The OEX has now moved down into the secondary washout level, 551-553.70, that I thought it possible we could see today. Bears, keep following the OEX lower with your stops and consider whether you want to take a least partial profit ahead of the 9:45 numbers. There's possibility of more downside, but consider whether you're the type of trader who likes to lighten up ahead of important and potentially market-moving economic announcements or not.

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 9:37:37 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $36.06 -3.22% ... remains under pressure.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 9:36:56 AM

QQQQ is back to its premarket lows, with 30 min channel support down to 35.02.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 9:35:22 AM

The OEX still at the downside Keltner target on the 15-minute chart, resistance trying to firm near 556-556.64.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 9:32:37 AM

No early rise in the OEX, but instead a straight-down move to the Keltner downside target and the 200-sma. Bears, have your profit-protecting plans in mind here, although a stronger wash is possible according to daily Keltner charts. I'd expect a bounce attempt of some sort to hit at some point, though, so just protect profits. I don't see a good risk for a long play just yet.

Tab Gilles : 4/15/2005 9:32:01 AM

Material Select Sector (XLB) Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 9:26:24 AM

QQQQ is back to testing the 35.33 resistance level, above which is 35.50 which now coincides with declining 7200 tick SMA resistance. If the bulls can avoid slipping for 5-10 minutes past the cash open, the first short cycle buy signals will begin printing. 100 tick chart attached, with 2 bad ticks to 35.50 this morning: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/15/2005 9:30:00 AM

Genentech (DNA) $58.63 Link ... surging higher to $67.30 after the company and partner Roche said that an interim analysis of a Phase III study of Avastin plus paclitaxel chemotherapy in first-line metastatic breast cancer met its primary efficacy endpoint of showing an improvement in progression-free survival, compared to chemotherapy alone.

Tab Gilles : 4/15/2005 9:23:35 AM

Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) I've mentioned this index several other times on MM. It has been a fairly good timing tool in the past ( not a stand alone indicator). It currently has entered a level where it may reverse and give a buy signal. Link

Nasdaq New High/New Low ($NAHL) This chart is nearing a buy signal also. I tend to use it a as a confirmation signal with other indicators. We may have some more downside to go on the $COMPQ. Link

Jane Fox : 4/15/2005 9:23:26 AM

Dateline WSJ Import prices grew faster than expected in March, posting the biggest monthly gain in more than a year.

Overall import prices rose 1.8% last month, after rising 0.8% in February, the Labor Department said Friday. The department did not revise its original February estimate. Year over year, prices rose 7.1% from March 2004. Between March 2003 and March 2004, prices climbed just 1.1%.

Separately, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that its Empire State manufacturing index slid to a reading of 3.1 in April from 20.2 in March. That was the lowest reading in two years. Indexes of hiring and prices received cooled, while the new-orders index dropped into negative territory, coming in at a reading of -0.2 from an 8.6 reading in March.

Petroleum import prices jumped 10.6% last month; prices were up 36.1% from a year earlier. Excluding petroleum, all other import prices rose 0.3% in March. This followed a 0.1% rise in February, revised from an initial estimate of 0.2%. Ex-oil prices increased 2.9% from March 2004, higher than the 1.0% climb between March 2003 and March 2004

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 9:17:08 AM

Industrial production +.3% vs. .3% est.

Capacity utilization 79.4% vs. 79.6% est.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 9:15:15 AM

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Foreigners recorded net purchases of U.S. securities totaling $84.5 billion in February, down from a revised $92.5 billion in January, according to the latest data from the Treasury Department, released Friday.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 9:05:51 AM

Industrial production and capacity utilization due in 10 minutes. Estimates are for +.3% and 79.6% respectively.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 8:50:42 AM

Thursday, the OEX dove, coiled during the afternoon, and then fell toward the afternoon low. The OEX ended the day just above a 555.50-ish zone that I have long had marked on my OEX charts as an important S/R level. A fall below that level, confirmed by a decline below the 200-sma at 554.13, will look like a H&S confirmation on the daily chart, with that formation having a blunted right shoulder. A bounce from this level, either when it's hit or after a small breach, could mean that the OEX still needs to rise into a right-shoulder level before deciding whether to finally confirm the formation or to invalidate it. p> Here's what the 15-minute Keltner channel suggests: The OEX has a downside target of 554.41, suggesting that there could be a test of that 200-sma. The last 15-minute candle was a doji on tentative (very tentative) support, which needs confirmation from the first 15-minute candle before we decide whether it's suggesting a very short-term reversal. If it does, that may suggest another test of the 15-minute resistance Keltner line at 557.24, with that line mostly stopping the OEX on 15-minute closes. That first test, if it occurs, should tell readers much about what to expect next, but I, for one, wouldn't be surprised to see a washout to that Keltner channel target and the 200-sma. The daily Keltner chart even suggests a downside target a bit lower, from 551-553.70, but not necessarily to be reached today. I wrote the previous copy immediately after the close yesterday, before I read Leigh's Wrap, but was interested to see him suggesting some of the same levels as possible targets.

The advdec line reached extreme levels yesterday, however, and the OEX has seen two days of steep declines, so it might be logical to expect either a consolidation day or a even a bounce attempt, perhaps after that test of the 200-sma. This is especially true as the SPX is also approaching its 200-sma, having nearly touched the 200-ema yesterday. So my best guess is perhaps an early bounce or steadying followed by more downside, either to the 200-sma or perhaps even to that 551-553.70 level, and then perhaps a bounce, but one that results in some sort of indecision-type daily candle. That's nothing more than a guess, of course, and I'd urge caution on this opex Friday, particularly caution in trying to catch a bottom. Yesterday, some signs of a change in the downtrend occurred, for example, but were quickly reversed, but one reason that I think we might steady after a possible early wash lower is yesterday's extreme levels in the advdec line's decline.

Futures are lower as I type, but well off their early morning lows despite an ugly Empire State report. Remember that we have other numbers coming shortly after the open, so don't get married to positions. Today might not be the best trading day, but it would be a great day for testing your skills by a few paper trades.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 8:42:47 AM

QQQQ tests 35.33 resistance here: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 8:40:22 AM

Session high for QQQQ at 35.31, ditto YM at 10245 and ES at 1160.75, just ticking positive.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 8:34:44 AM

Bonds have firmed on the news, TNX down 6.4 bps now at 4.294%. Equities dipped, but found support at higher lows, edging back to their pre-8:30 levels now. QQQQ is down .32 at 35.23 currently.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 8:33:22 AM

Empire State Index 3.1, lowest level in 2 years, est. 18.

Import prices ex-oil .3%, prior .2%.

Export prices ex-ag .4%, prior .1%.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 8:25:57 AM

Bonds have pulled back from their earlier highs, but the cash market nevertheless opened with a gap up, TNX currently down 5.3 bps at 4.305%, a 1.22% decline at the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 8:13:49 AM

Session highs are lighting up for gold, euros, and silver has gone green as well. The rise in the US Dollar Index was bearish for equities and metals yesterday, and a pullback today should work in reverse. Equities are advancing here.

In retrospect, yesterday's 35.50 QQQQ support was a descending triangle bottom, though it was touched only twice before breaking. The break was a "crash" in all the oversold intraday timeframes as the daily cycle downphase we've been tracking since last week dominated all the shorter cycles. A bounce is still due, and it should still be corrective, though there are now bullish divergences in all intraday timeframes from 30 min and shorter. First resistance will be at the 35.33 QQQQ cash low from yesterday, followed by the broken 35.50 support level. A failure here has next support at 35.00. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 7:36:47 AM

We await the 8:30 releases of export prices ex-ag. for March, prior 0.1%, import prices ex-oil, prior .2%, and the Empire State Index, est. 18. At 9:15, we get Industrial Production, est. .3%, and Capacity Utilization, est. 79.6%. At 9:45AM, we get Michigan Sentiment, est. 91.5.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/15/2005 7:33:34 AM

Bonds are the big winners from the overnight wipeout, with ZN futures just off a high of 110 15/16, currently up .5%. ES is down 3 at 1157.5, NQ -8 at 1433, YM -36 at 10217 and QQQQ -.37 at 35.18. Front month May crude is down .65 at 50.475, gold is down .20 at 425.5 and silver -.038 at 7.025.

Linda Piazza : 4/15/2005 7:27:04 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei closed almost 200 points lower Friday, and other Asian bourses were weak, with techs weak across the region. Tech weakness also sends European markets lower this morning. Our futures are lower. Dow futures improved momentarily after GE's earnings release a few minutes ago but then dropped again. As of 6:22 EST, gold was down $0.20, and crude, down $0.64 to $50.49. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei cratered in early trading, moving almost 200 points lower by the end of the morning session. By late afternoon, it had dropped more than 200 points, but it lifted off the low of the day to close down 192.48 points or 1.66%, at 11,370.69. Disappointment in IBM's and Samsung's earnings led to losses in computer-related companies in Japan and throughout Asia. South Korea's Samsung, tagged as Asia's largest electronics manufacturer if measured by market value, reported a profit loss of 52% on net income of 1.5 trillion won against expectations of 2.17 won. Excess production and slowing demand led to the loss. Chip prices were lower. The weaker dollar during the last quarter was also reported as being a cause for the miss.

Although crude dropped, at least one analyst believed that crude was dropping due to a perceived weakening of demand as economies slow their growth. Therefore, the drop in crude prices wasn't treated with the same enthusiasm for equities that it might have been in the past.

Other Asian markets dropped heavily, too. The Taiwan Weighted lost 1.48%, and that Samsung disappointment led to South Korea's Kospi dropping 0.70%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.85%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.97%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 1.41%.

European markets drop this morning, too, with techs leading declines. In Europe, those tech declines were deepened by disappointing earnings from the Sony Ericsson joint venture. The joint venture said pretax profit dropped to 70 million euros against forecasts of profit of 111 million euros. Sales fell 4%. Moderate market growth, falling prices and a mature product line were noted as factors in the disappointment. The declines in Europe have been sweeping, even catching Dutch bank ABN Amro after the company announced that it would see Q1 net and operating profit higher than had been forecast earlier. In the bank's case, currency moves proved a positive factor, with currency trading positions being partly responsible for the improved outlook. The bank also got approval to reveal details of its offer for Banca Antoveneta, so ABN Amro might be suffering from the typical downdraft to acquiring companies.

The U.K.'s music group EMI fell although it said that 2005's results will be better than previously forecast with sales in the recorded music division expected to drop less than previously reported. The U.K.'s three largest banks declined on news that they're interested in Morgan Stanley's Discover credit card business.

Some pharmaceutical companies saw gains in Europe, however, echoing an old rotation out of techs and into drug stocks that used to be seen. In this case, the gains in pharmaceuticals appeared to be at least in large part due to specific news, however. A U.S. court's ruling that LLY's patent was valid led to some gains. Roche Holding AG announced that its Avastin, developed along with Genentech, improved progression-free survival rates for patients with metastatic breast cancer that had not been previously treated.

As of 7:11 EST, the FTSE 100 had dropped 34 points or 0.69%, to 4,911.40. The CAC 40 had dropped 61.60 points of 1.50%, to 4,049.51. The DAX had dropped 77.55 points or 1.76%, to 4,324.50.

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