Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 11:34:27 PM

After-hours action:

Trading Higher GOOG +9.1% (reports Q1); MFRI +8.1% (reports Q4); AH +6.5% (beats by $0.09, guides above consensus); FSL +5.1% (beats by $0.09, guides in line for Q2); NDAQ +3.8% (beats handily, guides FY05 higher); SCUR +2.7% (reports in line; guides Q2 above consensus); TPX +2.7% (beats by $0.03; rasies Y05 guidance); BRCM +2.5% (beats by $0.01); WDC +1.9% (beats by $0.01)...

Trading Lower: TSRA -28.8% (in-line Q1 results, guides below consensus); HLIT -21.5% (misses by $0.04; guides Q2 below consensus); SMSI -16.7% (misses by $0.03, light on revs); SYNA -10.7% (beats by $0.07); SSTI -7.5% (Q1 in line, co guides for wider Q2 net loss); BEBE -7.1% (beats by $0.03; guides JunQ below consensus); VIRL -6.2% (reports; guides below consensus); AFFX -6.1% (beats by $0.03; issues Q2 and FY05 guidance); NFLX -5.3% (beats by $0.11; guides Y05 down); SNDK -5.3% (beats Q1 consensus by $0.07); EPNY -5.0% (beats by $0.01; guides below consensus); XLNX -2.8% (misses by $0.01); FDRY -2.8% (beats $0.01; suspends guidance); AMGN -2.1% (beats by $0.05; guides in line for Y05 ); DCLK -1.8% (misses by $0.03).

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 11:31:51 PM

Program Trading Levels for Friday...HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.68 and set for program selling at $+.14.

OI Technical Staff : 4/21/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 5:22:53 PM

From the highs of 37.07 in the QQQQs to the low at 34.55, 50% of this recent bearish move is 35.81. Friday's Daily R1 is 35.90. If a trader were to go long on a pullback, this could be a day trade target.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 4:37:08 PM

Also notice how most equities CLOSED above tomorrow's Daily Pivot...gives a bull a good risk point early.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 4:36:15 PM

Pivot Matrix for Tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 4:33:58 PM

For Friday, a trader sees a ton of Weekly Pivots being tested and the upside objective will be Weekly R1 as long as these Weekly Pivots hold. It looks like the VIX finally turned and as we said finally used the Daily Pivot as Resistance instead of support. We will see if this is the case Friday morning.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 4:24:28 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 4:14:52 PM

Closing Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 4:13:25 PM

Day Trading Recap.... Bought Full Position of InfoSpace (INSP) at 43.65 and sold 1/2 at 44.20 and 1/2 at 44.59.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 4:12:34 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 4:06:14 PM

A push above the OEX's 200-sma into the close. I knew it.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 3:55:48 PM

Bulls, with the OEX paused at/just below/just above the 200-sma at the close, whichever it turns out to be, consider whether you want to hold overnight. Think about that potential broadening formation at the bottom of the decline, and the unpredictability of moves within a broadening formation. Make an account-appropriate decision.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 3:54:02 PM

The OEX pulls back slightly from a test of the 200-sma and the 50% retracement of the decline off the 4/12 high. It's not pulling back far. Will we see a last-minute attempt to push it above the 200-sma and close it there? Wouldn't be surprised.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 3:48:26 PM

Nasdaq now 40-points below the 2000 level that is seemed to gravitate around for weeks.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 3:46:26 PM

This afternoon's setup is similar to that of Friday afternoon's, but in reverse. Here we have the 30 and 60 min cycles overbought (or close to it) and due for a reversal. The daily cycle oscillators continue to point south, but today's breakaway upside gap is suggesting that it's merely lagging the turn. In either case, however, the strong intraday move from here should be to the downside- a failure to turn tomorrow will confirm the bullish reversal thesis on the daily cycle, and a strong upside trending move (akin to an upside "crash") for the 30 and 60 min cycles.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 3:44:59 PM

Doesn't this look like another dreaded broadening formation? Link Notoriously difficult to trade, each day's reversal seeming to suggest something different: these are formations I dread seeing.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 3:41:11 PM

INSP at 45.13....breaking out during this last five minutes...

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 3:38:00 PM

Weekly R1 of S&P 500 at 1174.55, QQQQ's at 36.12, SOX at 406....and both the Q's and SOX are at its Weekly Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 3:36:17 PM

If the OEX gets slapped back from this test of its 200-sma, I don't know that I'd expect it to get slapped back far. The 15-minute Keltner support still looks strong enough to support all but a strong sell program. Of course, where would you program a sell program but at the 200-sma? Still, I'm not sure that the OEX has chopped around quite enough to break up either the resistance or the support, and might need a bit more chopping.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 3:35:59 PM

There is that feeling that all equity markets will be closing near its highs and we should be talking about Weekly R1 and Weekly R2 levels to be tested on Friday.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 3:33:40 PM

Longs should keep their profit-protecting plans in mind as the OEX tests its 200-sma.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 3:32:58 PM

Yep. Here comes the OEX push toward the 200-sma.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 3:29:19 PM

I said almost an hour ago that I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX just chop around for a while and that's what's happened. The OEX clings to a Keltner breakout level, but barely, with that level just below the 200-sma. I wouldn't be surprised to see an attempt to push through that 200-sma, and the reaction to that attempt might tell us what might be expected next. That test could be postponed until tomorrow morning, though.

As it has for a while now, the OEX first looks vulnerable to pull back and test Keltner support, with that support looking relatively firm. It's looked vulnerable to such a pullback for a while, though, and hasn't done it, so perhaps the test of the 200-sma will come first.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 3:28:10 PM

Despite the lack range near the top, it's already been a heavy volume session for QQQQ, with 103M shares traded so far. 30 and 60 min channel resistance currently line up at 35.63, with the 30 min channel flattening in overbought territory and the 60 min oscillators trying to catch up. 7200 tick SMA support is just below at 35.51, below which the 30 min channel should begin to tick lower.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 3:18:03 PM

Banks (BIX) back above 345, but as we thought yesterday....there was the possibility that weaker banks wouldn't affect stocks...it didn't.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 3:16:50 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 3:16:26 PM

The OEX again threatens to fall beneath the breakout level on the 15-minute Keltner chart, again threatening to pull back and test Keltner support, from 549.92-552.37, but perhaps strongest now near 551-551.43. I just haven't ever trusted that breakout signal, not when created just below the 200-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 3:12:44 PM

Volume breadth remains firm, 5.5 advancing Nasdaq shares for each declining, 4.9 for the NYSE. The TRINQ is a healthy .72, TRIN at the low end of neutral at .53.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 3:09:43 PM

So far, despite the possibility that the OEX might drop to next Keltner support, it hasn't done so. It's clung to the Keltner breakout level. Support still looks relatively strong from 549.77-552.17, but strongest just above 551.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 3:09:28 PM

S&P 500 Index found resistance at Weekly Pivot at 1158.34....currently at 1157.61

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 3:07:21 PM

Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 3:07:02 PM

3:00 P.M. Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 3:02:15 PM

The OEX coils just underneath the 200-sma at 554.16.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 2:59:09 PM

Yesterday and today, the RLX found support at its 61.8% retracement of the rally off the August '04 low. Now market watchers want to see if it can move back above the 50% retracement or, more important to the RLX's behavior, the 200-sma and -ema's, now at 422.80-422.94. So far, today's zooming around counts as just part of the consolidation zone the RLX has been building. The RLX is at 407.23 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 2:49:16 PM

June crude closed at a session high of 54.25. 2-day 30 tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 2:46:39 PM

There's a possibility of the OEX dropping to test next Keltner support. That's currently at 549.60-551.86, but perhaps strongest near 550.80. Bulls want to see that 551.83 level hold on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 2:45:13 PM

On this fifteen-minute close, the OEX maintains its breakout signal, but barely.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 2:44:54 PM

QQQQ tests the pennant apex here: Link . The 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators are pointing north, the 60 on a particularly steep bullish divergence. But the daily cycle downphase has yet to stall despite today's so-far bullish engulfing candle. While the daily cycle oscillators usually lag, it's surprising not to see a stall in the downphase yet. Currently, last week's gap has been closed, but the overhang at 35.95-36.60 is looking heavy from here.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 2:39:44 PM

I wouldn't be surprised to see some chopping around now on the OEX. If it could push above and maintain values above the 200-sma, then shorts might propel it quickly up to the 200-ema, but without that happening, I think there could be chop between the 200-sma and a 550-ish zone.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 2:37:14 PM

Immediate downturn to retest the breakout signal on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart. Suppot lines still try to firm, now between 549.45-551.60. The support zone is still rather too wide, but thick with support lines, so it could hold against a gentle drifting down, although not through a strong sell program.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 2:35:41 PM

For the next 1.5 hours, with bonds lower, Q's above 35.40 and most major indices near their highs, no real reason to try to pick tops in equities. It will be interesting going through the pivot matrix for tomorrow. The edge will most likely be to bulls, but it was to bears at the close of yesterday. Will probably do the same as the last few days...wait until the open,judge risk and price action and then act accordingly. I would be surprised if I do another full position long tomorrow.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 2:35:57 PM

There was a 15-minute Keltner breakout on the OEX with the close of the just-completed 15-minute period. That sets a 559.09 upside target, but I frankly don't trust it, not with the OEX jammed right underneath the 200-sma and with the 200-ema above that. If I were already in a bullish play, I might take partial profit here with it being unknown whether the OEX can push above those 200-sma and ema's, and then watch carefully with my plan in place for the rest of the position, allowing for participation in case the OEX does shoot higher. Keltner support is still trying to firm, so without a sell program that breaks the OEX beneath that support, we might see some chopping around right here between support and resistance. Danger here to bulls in current plays and to bears who might be tempted to enter, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 2:31:14 PM

The TRINQ edges up to .26 here as QQQQ pulls back 2 cents from the high. Above the 7200 tick SMA at 35.40, the 30 min cycle bias remains to the upside.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 2:28:46 PM

Is the OEX forming yet-another broadening formation on its daily chart? Hope not, but it certainly looks possible. Bigger swings each day. "Breakouts" each day that are reversed the next.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 2:26:06 PM

Nymex crude is up to 53.95, down 7.5 cents for the day and just off its 54.00 high with 5 minutes left in the session.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 2:24:01 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link showing no pullback from the upper keltner violation and resting on the session highs. A failure to pull back indicates an upside trending move.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 2:21:38 PM

The OEX heads up toward the 200-sma at 554.15. Watching for signs of an impulsive move down, but haven't seen any yet. So far, no signs that I can discern that bears should step in front of this but plenty of signs that bulls should have their profit-protecting plans firmly in place.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 2:20:26 PM

Long Exit, INSP Exited remaining half long position at 44.59. Felt comfortable doing some micro-management on this trade....getting a point to the upside seems ok given the recent bearish sentiment. may have been different with a short.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 2:18:22 PM

The OEX tests 15-minute Keltner resistance and has inched above the 38.2% retracement of the entire decline off the 4/12 high, too. Without a quick reversal, it may be eventually headed up toward the 50% retracement, at 554.94. Bulls do not want to see that quick reversal. That Keltner support has so far proved more important than the tentative reversal signs, and I thought the support looked a little less tentative than those other signs.

I knew without looking that the Nasdaq had probably popped above 1950 and that gap, and it had.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 2:17:10 PM

Volume breadth 4.4:1 in favor of advancing shares on the NYSE, 4.9:1 on the Nasdaq, with the TRINQ dowwn to an extreme .16 reading, NYSE more tame at .65.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 2:11:03 PM

Swing Trade Long Exit Time to keep moving up our stop on the INSP Long from 43.65. Move stop of remaining 1/2 long to 44.59.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 2:11:01 PM

Session highs across the board, QQQQ breaking above the upper wedge resistance and testing upper channel resistance for the rising 30 and 60 min channel tops. A break abvove 35.50 would be very bullish if it occurs.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 2:10:57 PM

Not seeing much sign of a downturn in progress just yet on the OEX. The last 15-minute candle was a doji, but that's slim evidence, especially since the OEX has been producing some of these before small pullbacks ahead of the next climb. I'm seeing 15-minute Keltner resistance just overhead, at 552.40 on a 15-minute closing basis, candles jammed underneath the 552.08-ish 38.2% retracement of the entire decline off the 4/12 high, but not yet able to get over it, a climb that looks suspiciously like a bearish rising wedge . . . but also seeing Keltner support trying to firm up underneath the OEX's current position, down to 549.09. Looks like the OEX needs either a strong sell program to break through that trying-to-build support or else needs to bounce/hang around long enough for the would-be support lines to snake above the price candles instead of above them.

Conclusion: Some tentative signs of a possible pullback, but nothing to hang you hat on yet and some perhaps less tentative signs of support building.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 2:05:58 PM

Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 2:04:44 PM

Nymex crude is up to a 40 cent loss here at 53.625. Bonds are recovering slightly off their lows as well, TNX down to an 8.3 bp gain at 4.294%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 2:01:14 PM

2:00 P.M. Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 1:59:18 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 1:58:25 PM

InfoSpace (INSP) Long Exit Update Move stop of remaining 1/2 long from 43.65 to 44.48. Not liking the recent price action.

Linda Piazza : 4/21/2005 1:54:51 PM

I'm just returning and catching up to speed, so I'm not able to give in-depth analysis of what's going on today. One thing that struck me, however, is that the OEX is now testing 60-minute Keltner resistance and the new, as of yesterday, 38.2% retracement of the decline off the 4/12 high, with that number near 552.08. Since this 552-ish level was the level that also stopped the OEX yesterday, and since there's the potential for a pullback to form a right shoulder for a possible inverse H&S building at the bottom of the decline, this might be a level of particular danger to bulls who might have entered as the OEX was testing all that Keltner support yesterday at the close. That would have been a countertrend play, but as I mentioned this morning before leaving, the OEX was due for a hard, sharp oversold bounce. I hadn't really expected it to get this high, but thought that bears ought to stand aside if the OEX started such a sharp bounce, as it did on the first 15-minute candle this morning. Now bulls are the ones who need to have those profit-protecting plans in place in case the OEX rolls down into a right shoulder. I just haven't watched long enough to know whether a bearish entry would be such a good idea, though, if such a rollover looked apparent. I don't know whether such a rollover will begin, even. If already in such a play on this test of historical resistance, have profit-protecting plans in place for 547-548.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 1:43:29 PM

Session highs across the board here, QQQQ retesting 35.40. Updated chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 1:38:42 PM

InfoSpace (INSP)...new high at 44.41....letting this remaining 1/2 long ride...for now...impressed this move is happening despite QQQQ's lack of leadership. Watch 44.28 as potential support.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 1:33:02 PM

Volume breadth has eased back, with QQQQ back to another test of 7200 tick SMA support. 3.6 advancing Naz shares for each declining, 2.9 on the NYSE.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 1:25:21 PM

Session low for 10-year notes here, ZN to 110 23/32, with TNX up 8.8 bps at 4.299%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 1:25:21 PM

Swing Trade Exit Alert Sold 1/2 of bullish position in InfoSpace (INSP) at 44.20 from 43.65 entry. Remaining half move stop up to 44.04.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 1:20:15 PM

QQQQ's...Weekly Pivot (35.40) part III....once above 35.40 and will look to see if bonds on session lows and if capital is flowing into stocks at a greater rate.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 1:15:26 PM

QQQQ never broke the 7200 tick SMA support, bouncing back to the highs. This is counter to the short cycle downphase, but a break of the session high would take of that, setting it trending in overbought and targeting the 30 min cycle top at 35.50. A failure below the prior high should be enough to reverse the 30 min channel upphase on a break back below the 7200 tick SMA line: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 1:04:11 PM

Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 1:03:52 PM

1:00 P.M. Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 1:02:14 PM

June crude oil is down to 53.20, -.825. Ten year bonds are bouncing off their lows but are still down big today, TNX down to a 6.9 bp gain at 4.28% (a 1.62% gain today). QQQQ is testing the 7200 tick SMA support at 35.25 here, with the short cycle oscillators taking their first downtick in a hour.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 12:57:46 PM

Swing Trade Stop Alert Move stop up to 43.94 as the QQQQ's just not participating and getting me really nervous with INSP.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 12:54:43 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 12:51:44 PM

Volume breadth has firmed, with 4.2 advancing Nasdaq shares for each declining, 3 on the NYSE. The TRIN at .81 and TRINQ at .69 are both neutral, as is the put to call ratio in the mid .80s.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 12:50:06 PM

The Dow, noted earlier, did hold its Daily pivot and now is trying to use Daily R1 as support (10133)...currently at 10138. longs are prob. tightening up stops while shorts more nervous.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 12:48:40 PM

QQQQ's looking to make another assault on the Weekly Pivot as our INSP long appears to be taking signs from this ETF. If the QQQQ's fall under 35.26 or fail again at the weekly pivot (35.40) then prepare to take profits.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 12:27:07 PM

Swing Trade Stop Alert move stop on INSP long from 43.65 to 43.83 and still offering out half at 44.20. come on QQQQ's...take out Weekly Pivot

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 12:23:27 PM

Session lows for gold and silver, -.60 at 434 and -.013 at 7.235 respectively. HUI is down .47% at 191.12 currently, XAU -.92% at 89.15.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 12:21:06 PM

QQQQ's high was one penny below Weekly Pivot, so getting me wanting to protect profits in INSP...

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 12:17:39 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link , working on that 35.35 resistance line. The short cycle is overbought, but the 30 and 60 min channels point north and will continue to do so if price holds above the 7200 tick SMA line at 35.15 currently.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 12:16:25 PM

Swing Trade Exit....Offer 1/2 long position in INSP out at 44.27 from 43.65 entry...

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 12:12:30 PM

Swing Trade Long Update...long INSP at 43.65...shares at 43.85. Move stop from 42.91 to 43.70. risk and capital management.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 12:11:00 PM

Session low for ten year bonds, TNX up 7 bps to 4.281%. Still no buy signal on the daily cycle, but it's looking imminent: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 12:09:29 PM

Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 12:04:48 PM

12:00 P.M. Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 12:03:42 PM

QQQQ chart update: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 12:03:03 PM

Bonds are selling steeply on the news, ZN down to 110 29/32 and probing the day lows now. QQQQ is testing yesterday's premarket highs, printing 35.34 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 12:02:52 PM

QQQQ's Weekly Pivot at 35.40...

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 12:02:07 PM

Consensus estimates for the Philly Fed were for a reading of 10.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 12:01:23 PM



Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 11:52:02 AM

INSP back to Weekly R2 of 43.55 but this resistance will need to turn into support...the breakout was on good volume and the pullback on light volume so bulls don't seem too worried. 43.25 support below.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 11:51:21 AM

Philly Fed due in 9 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 11:45:21 AM

QQQQ breaks north above descending intraday trendline resistance: Link . The prior high at 35.15 is being tested, followed by 30 min channel resistance at 35.23.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 11:36:49 AM

For the first time in about seven sessions, the VIX is using its Daily Pivot as Resistance instead of support. Daily Pivot currently comes in at 16.21...VIX at 15.79..

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 11:33:02 AM

QQQQ bounces back to the pennant apex here: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 11:28:56 AM

Volume breadth has weakened, advancing volume outpacing declining volume 1.8 on the NYSE, TRIN up to 1.02, and 2.7 on the Nasdaq with the TRINQ up to .78.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 11:23:05 AM

Dow...10078...trying to hold Daily Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 11:22:20 AM

Pesky Daily R1 proved too much for the QQQQ's...philly in 40 minutes should set the stage for the rest of the session...

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 11:19:56 AM

QQQQ breaking south out of the pennant: Link and into the morning gap. That pennant might prove to be a bearish descending triangle- support cracking now as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 11:18:13 AM

Nymex crude is up to a .625 loss at 53.40, off a low of 530.025.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 11:11:02 AM

Gold and silver are holding their gains, while the CRB has pulled back 1.15 to 305.84. Sugar, soybeans and live cattle are the three leaders in the index. The US Dollar Index failed at a lower high beneath 83.80, and has pulled back to yesterday's low range: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 11:07:25 AM

100 tick QQQQ chart update at this Link , coiling in an intraday pennant.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 11:06:57 AM

Anheuser-Busch (BUD) 46.50 +1.40 announces it has learned that Berkshire Hathaway has become a significant shareholder.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 11:04:18 AM

Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 11:03:58 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 4/21/2005 11:04:07 AM

$VXN On a daily chart the $VXN has spiked in the past few days up to the 325 ema. Recently this has been an entry point on the $COMPQ as indicated on the chart. That said those who follow my other indicators $NAHL and $NASI know that I'm waiting for some confirmation levels to be met there. Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 10:58:40 AM

Volume breadth is strongly positive for the Nasdaq with 3.4 advancing shares for each declining, TRINQ neutral at .7, less so on the NYSE with 2.4 advancing shares for each declining, TRIN at .97.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 10:54:39 AM

QQQQ's back to Daily R1....good sign for bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 10:46:50 AM

Banking Index (BIX) at daily lows of 342.69 with QQQQ's under Daily R1. Should get bulls just slightly nervous.....one sector showing strength is Airlines.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 10:41:31 AM

QQQQ is trading both sides of the flattened 7200 tick SMA here, below yesterday's high but above the low for a potentially bullish inside day. Bears need to see the 30 min channel support broken at 34.90, bulls need to crack 35.30, confirmed with a move above 35.33-35.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 10:35:59 AM

The Fed's open market desk has added a large 7.25B overnight repo to supplement the 9B in 14-day money announced earlier, for a net add of 2.5B for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 10:35:22 AM

EBAY second most active on volume list after failing at Daiy R1 and Weekly Pivot of 33.10...Weekly S1 is at 30.79....31.69 currently

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 10:34:36 AM

Nymex June crude has reopened lower, -.90 here at at 53.125. Bonds are hilding just off the lows, TNX +4.8 bps here at 4.259%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 10:23:30 AM

Daily R1's held for most major indices and now QQQQ's will probably need to get back above 35.15 to attract new longs...

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 10:19:03 AM

QQQQ breaks below 7200 tick SMA support for the first time today as the short cycle oscillators roll over. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 10:18:07 AM

InfoSpace (INSP)...43.61...tested Weekly R2 of 43.56 and held temporarily...will need to keep Weekly R2 as support. Will tighten stops if Daily R2 tested again...44.28, today's high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 10:14:17 AM

Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 10:12:13 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link with a failure below yesterday's high. 7200 tick SMA support is up to 35.05, below which the flattening 30 min channel upphase should whipsaw. Support for that channel is at 35.00.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 10:09:28 AM

10:00 a.m. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 10:07:19 AM

VIX at 15.66... Daily S2 at 13.57, S1 at 15.26, Pivot at 16.21, Daily R1 at 17.90, R2 at 18.83

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 10:04:43 AM

Bonds have pulled lower, with TNX +6.2 bps here at 4.273%, ZN just off its low of the day at 110 7/8.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 10:02:49 AM

Filled on long Position in INSP at 43.65...testing breakout now from yesterday. Stop at 34.91.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 10:02:48 AM






Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 10:02:06 AM

LEI -.4% vs. -.3% exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 10:01:23 AM








Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 10:00:53 AM

Cancel QQQQ's entry...about a minute slow on that one...will wait until after LEI and maybe Philly.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 9:59:03 AM

Day Trade Long, 1/2 Position...go Long QQQQ's at 35.15 with a stop at 34.91

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 9:56:22 AM

5 minutes to the release of Leading Economic Indicators, est. -0.3%, prior +0.1%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 9:54:53 AM

Swing Trade Long...go long InfoSpace (INSP) at 43.60 with a stop at 42.95. Looking for an entry in the next 20 minutes...MEDI kept taking off...missed it...

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 9:52:31 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link . Bulls avoided the pop & drop bullet, and the 30 and 60 min channels have pulled, with the 30 min cycle top up to 35.30 but dipping back down here to 35.25. 7200 tick SMA support is at 34.90, with 30 min channel support rising almost vertically to 34.95- the first time I've ever seen that channel exceed the SMA, probably the result of the sharp gap up open.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 9:45:34 AM

MedImmune (MEDI) also looking strong and above Daily R2...

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 9:44:21 AM

InfoSpace (INSP) heading to Daily R2....

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 9:42:02 AM

One stock coming under pressure that should continue lower is FFIV....down 4.91 (10.40%) at 42.48...waiting for volatility to calm down a bit.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 9:38:43 AM

The TRIN and TRINQ have pulled up off their lows, the TRIN still showing heavy buying pressure at .39, the TRINQ at the low end of neutral at .58. Those potential bullish divergences on the 30 and 60 min cycles are clearly bullish, but yesterday hit a lower low, and today's big gaps up have yet to break yesterday's highs.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 9:37:24 AM

BIX above 345 and support that became resistance is now support again...a lot of green this a.m.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 9:36:02 AM

QQQQ's testing Daily R1...

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 9:35:02 AM

June gold holds its gains here, +1.60 at 436.20 off a higher low of 434.20. HUI and XAU have both opened in the green, +.49 at 192.51 and +.06 at 90.04 respectively.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 9:33:09 AM

Session highs across the board with ten year bonds dropping back toward their session lows, TNX up 5.1 bps here at 4.262%. Crude oil finished lower by .75 at 53.275 for the morning session.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 9:27:19 AM

Shares Gapping...NOK +5.8% (also Pru upgrade; up in sympathy: ERICY +3.7%), MOT +5.5% (also Smith Barney upgrade), WHR +5.4%, GDT +5.4%, UPS +4.8%, SGP +4.6%, SAP +4.5% (also Smith Barney upgrade), EBAY +2.5%, VRSN +11%, VDSI +11%, AVCI +11%, FORM +8.3% (also upgrades from CIBC and Needham)... Other News: AX +38% (to merge with NYSE; up in sympathy: LAB +14%, INGP +5.3%), POZN +34% (Phase III trial data for Trexima), DCLK +16% (to be acquired by Hellman & Friedman -NY Post; up in sympathy: TFSM +14%), JMDT +10.8% (buys Tetris game; guides higher), TASR +8.4% (receives UK order), ARBA +7.4% (partners w/ Sabrix), MOBE +5.5% (Apple to sell adapter), BOOM +5.4%, TLAB +2.8% (Goldman upgrade).

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 9:19:26 AM

QQQQ's stalling at Daily R1....if this level is taken out to the upside then watch 35.40 as a more important area of resistance. Back below 34.90 should neutralize some of this bullishness.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 9:14:09 AM

The Fed's open market desk has 13.75B in various repos expiring, with 8B in 14-day money and 5.75B in overnights. So far, they have announced a 9B 14-day repo, leaving 4.75B to be addressed at the short-term 10AM announcement.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 9:12:43 AM

If banks open nicely above 345, QQQQ's above 35.13 and Daily R1 and SOX above 392....then we will seriously consider a Day Trade Long.

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 9:08:15 AM

Even with all the economic news and earnings, there is still the Philly Fed release at noon and Greenspan testifies to the Senate at 10:00 a.m. EST on budget reform. Don't forget Philly Fed. I think forcasts are for a slightly higher reading over last month (12 versus 11).

Jeff Bailey : 4/21/2005 9:02:21 AM

QQQQ's 35.10 with Daily R1 just above. Bears may just pause this overnight rally until 9:30 a.m. when volume picks up.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 8:54:10 AM

Price continues to hold above the upper 30 and 60 min channel tops, setting the stage for a pop & drop open at 9:30. On the bullish side of things, the 30 min cycle oscillators have turned up, showing a preliminary buy signal from a higher oscillator low against the lower price low- this is a bullish divergence. However, the 60 min cycle oscillators continue to point south, suggesting that the selling has further to go. If the price holds at or above the 34.90 level for approx. 20 minutes past the 9:30 open, this cycle too will begin to turn up, forming a strong and much steeper bullish divergence.

A break above the 35.33-.35 level directly from here will complete these bullish patterns, while a break below 34.75, the current 7200 tick SMA, would invalidate them.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 8:32:21 AM

Equities like the numbers so far, QQQQ up to 35.10 and ES to 1149, while bonds don't, TNX extending its rise to a 4 bp gain at 4.251%. Gold and silver are off their highs but still green, euro futures -.15% at 1.3084 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 8:31:17 AM








Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 8:22:00 AM

Bonds have extended their losses, ZN futures now down 9/32 to 111 5/32, with TNX quoted here +2.8 bps at 4.239%, a .66% increase at the cash open. Equities pulled back but are holding the bulk of their gains, with QQQQ still holding 6 cents above the upper 30 min channel top. Initial claims are due in 9 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/21/2005 7:31:32 AM

Linda is away but will be back this afternoon.

Equities are up sharply, ES +8.50 at 1148.25, NQ +14 at 1428.50, YM 10089 and QQQQ +.38 at 35.08. Gold is up .90 at 435.50, silver +.047 at 7.295, ten year notes down 7/32 to 111 7/32. and crude oil -.625 at 53.40.

We await the 8:30 release of initial claims, est. 329K, followed by Leading economic indicators at 10AM, est. -.3%, then at noon, the Philly Fed, est. 10.

Market Monitor Archives