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OI Technical Staff : 4/25/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 4:58:41 PM

QQQQs back again to Daily R1... will look, once again, for a move to Weekly R1 and if long tighten stops. If not long, look for a short. Back below 35.19 "area" and possibly look for short. Also remember XLNX possible short.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 4:36:15 PM

Pivot Matrix for Tomorrow at Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 4:30:04 PM

From the lows just above 34.80 to Monday's high, the recent pullback was almost 50% of this bullish move and also tied in with the daily pivot. A reason why shorting the QQQQ's today didn't make sense unless the daily pivot was broken.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 4:14:08 PM

OPEN MM Positions at Link Today's trades...Long 1/2 position QQQQs at 35.42; stopped out at 35.21.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 4:08:16 PM

Closing Internals at Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 4:02:21 PM

Closing Market Watch at Link

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 3:56:57 PM

Miserable day, but one of those we have to endure now and then. I'm glad I came into the day believing that direction wasn't clear or I might have been tempted to microanalyze. I'm anxious to get a look at charts tonight and see if today's action accomplished anything.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 3:53:23 PM

The descending trendline off the OEX's HOD will be hit at about 555.46, give or take a few cents. With the stop-run to the downside not working, bull may try for a run above that descending trendline, but remember that it all occurs within an undependable broadening formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 3:53:18 PM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link with the 30 min channel ticking up, support rising from 35.10 to 35.13. The short cycle upphase has kicked off, with key resistance 11 cents overhead at 35.46.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 3:47:17 PM

As the day draws nearer the close, the OEX's 15-minute Keltner support tries to firm again. It's from 552.82-553.01. First resistance is at the current level, then at 555.75 and 556.82.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 3:40:29 PM

The RLX hasn't been able to hold onto all its gains today. It's balancing above 400 and the 61.8% retracement of the rally from last summer's low into this year's high. It's at 403.89 as I type, still inside a consolidation range at the bottom of its decline.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 3:38:04 PM

It looks as if there's a push again today to close the TRAN above its 200-sma and -ema's, but it looks as if it's been a struggle. Those averages are currently at 3469.13 and 3474.71, and the TRAN is currently at 3469.24, having printed a HOD above both averages. Looking at the daily chart, Thursday's trading looks as if the TRAN just temporarily overran the resistance in a likely bear flag. Time will tell. The TRAN hasn't broken through the bear flag's support, if that's what it is.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 3:35:12 PM

Big pop from QQQQ here to 35.31, just breaking above 7200 tick SMA resistance: Link . The 30 min cycle downphase will stall in about 5 minutes if price can hold above it.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 3:29:28 PM

Crude oil is continuing its slide, down .40 to 54.175, off a session low of 54.15.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 3:26:56 PM

In case I'm coming across differently than I mean to come across today, I'm no more sure of deep declines than I am of steep climbs. I felt that the OEX support was softening and that the OEX might retreat, but charts really aren't clear yet as to how deep those declines might be. Support continues to soften on the 15-minute Keltner charts, but resistance hasn't really firmed up yet, either, at least according to Keltner evidence.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 3:26:37 PM

If the QQQQ's do not close below the daily pivot, probably will be a neutral to slightly bullish day. Will most likely look to buy strength and sell weakness tomorrow. Possibly another 1/2 position day, as it just makes a ton of sense to use capital management techniques when alignment isn't present. XLNX, on the other hand, could be a full position short.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 3:24:31 PM

The RLX, an indicator index that I often watch, has retraced more than 38.2% of the zoom up from Friday's low to today's high, but it's bouncing right back to retest that 38.2% retracement level, at about 403.17, with the RLX at 403.22 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 3:23:50 PM

One stock on the verge of falling apart is Xilinx (XLNX) on a weekly chart, as the H&S on the Daily is fairly obvious. 26.95 currently. Had earnings already on April 21st. Obviously, didn't go well the day after the report.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 3:21:55 PM

Ten year treasuries closed just north of flat, with TNX down 0.4 bps at 4.251%. Daily chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 3:18:12 PM

The OEX didn't even bounce up to test the Keltner line currently at 554.57, with that gap about 30 minutes ago telling the tale, I guess. So has that softening Keltner support been telling the tale. Mid-channel Keltner support will soon be tested, at 552.75. That's also about a 38.2% retracement of the zoom from Friday's low to today's high, so perhaps a natural place for a steadying or bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 3:16:24 PM

Day Trade Exit: QQQQs 1/2 position size at 35.21. Note Daily Pivot at 35.12 below. Also 35.28 as level Qs were at when bond market closed.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 3:11:20 PM

The 30 min cycle has rolled over for QQQQ on the continued weakness, while the 60 min cycle continues to point north. The daily cycle bullish kiss has "undrawn" slightly, but barring a strong break below Friday's low, the 10 day stochastic will remain very close to a fresh buy signal off last week's lows. QQQQ continues to struggle with 35.20 support, and the question is going to be whether the young 30 min cycle upphase or the young 60 min cycle downphase will prevail. A break above 35.46 or below 35.10 should be directional in this respect.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 3:10:59 PM

QQQQs sell-off more prounced as in-between daily pivot and Daily R1 with slight bearish sentiment still in control. Broker dealer having some issues with stop orders...note 35.21.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 3:09:57 PM

Without a strong bounce before the end of this 15-minute period, the TRAN is breaking through Keltner support, but we didn't need that to warn us of impending OEX declines because the two occurred simultaneously. The OEX has dropped back down to test the 200-sma. It gapped down on the 15-minute chart, below support that's been holding all day. Without a strong bounce, and coupled with the softening Keltner support, that may suggest a bit more of a downturn. The Keltner line currently at 554.91 should be considered resistance now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 3:05:18 PM

Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 3:04:52 PM

QQQQ testing 35.20 here, with the 30 min channel down to 35.16. Link Bulls need to see price regan 35.30. The short cycle oscillators are approaching oversold territory here, with next support below 35.20 at 35.10-.13.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 3:04:26 PM

3:00 P.M. Market Watch at Link

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 2:58:52 PM

The TRAN has descended low enough to test mid-channel support on its 15-minute Keltner chart, with that support looking relatively firm. A look at the 15-minute chart shows a series of lower highs, however, with a flat supporting level, perhaps forming a bearish right triangle. Mixed evidence again. That Keltner support gathers from 3462.89-3468.17 with the TRAN at 3469.23 as I type. Why should we care? The TRAN sometimes leads the SPX, OEX and Dow the way that the SOX used to lead the tech-related indices.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 2:58:00 PM

Session high for June gold at 436.40 with HUI and XAU holding fractional losses. Ten year notes still going net nowhere, TNX down 0.4 bps at 4.251%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 2:54:24 PM

Volatility picking up in QQQQs...35.27 and new 'afternoon' lows. 5-minutes until bond market closes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 2:53:35 PM

Few notable earnings tomorrow: AMZN, after the market closes; CME pre-market; Dupont pre-market, among many others. Note: Microsoft is after the market on Thursday.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 2:53:30 PM

Hey, congratulations on that Premcor leap play, Jim!

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 2:52:52 PM

Here's what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner channel currently shows: nearby support from 553.84-554.08 and nearby resistance at 555.14 and 556.20-556.83. If nearby support breaks, support near 552.72 is next and then down nearer 551.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 2:44:54 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link with QQQQ taking a bounce from the 35.30 area. Volume remains very light, less than half Friday's volume, but so far the short cycle downphase in progress since this morning has done remarkably little damage. 30 and 60 min channel support remain at 35.20.

Jim Brown : 4/25/2005 2:43:49 PM

Premcor LEAP

With the news that Valero is buying Premcor for $6.9B our Premcor LEAP has blasted off with the price of the PCO stock today. I am recommending that we close the LEAP today. The upside in PCO has been capped and we could see some premium fade in the LEAP. We still have a LEAP in Valero and will continue to hold that one.

The PCO 2007 $60 LEAP VJE-AL was entered on Apr-15th at $9.60 and has traded as high as $18.40 today. Bid/Ask is jumping around between $15.50 and $21.90 and it highly volatile. I would target about $16 for an exit and probably get a quick fill.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 2:37:54 PM

Nymex crude closed 5 cents above its 54.55 low, 1.44% for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 2:34:42 PM

Who wins? Day Traders, as Daily R1 is holding while pit traders and aggressive participants are able to control price action. Trading size and taking a few cents out of the market appears to be the trade; no thanks. QQQQ's at 35.36 and only 6 cents from our entry. Patience and stops. all we can do. Bulls would like to see new highs by 3:00 p.m. and the bond market close..then maybe we will see some movement.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 2:34:40 PM

I keep making lists today of this being on the bearish side and that being on the bullish side, only some of which I've shared with you. However, the truth of the matter to me is that the OEX remains within that broadening formation at the bottom of its descent, and so we really don't yet have a "truth" about how the OEX is doing. The presence of that broadening formation and its attendant volatility (Did I really use that word today?) signals emotion-based trading, with each breakout soon reversed. It remains to be seen if that will happen here as the top trendline is tested today.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 2:24:39 PM

Sometimes about this time of day, the three-minute OEX Keltner chart will give some clues as to next immediate direction, but it's not doing so today. As I type, the OEX is breaking through support on that chart, headed to next support from 554.20-554.71 if there's a three-minute close beneath that support . . . three-minute close happened as I typed, and was at the support, not clearly above or below it, so what else is new?

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 2:21:30 PM

Nymex June crude oil is trading lower by .60 at 54.80 here, off a low of 54.675, with 9 minutes to go in the day session.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 2:15:42 PM

All the annotations on this chart are many months old, some made as early as last November, some near the beginning of this year, but I post it because it shows the importance of the long-term S/R currently being tested: Link Because the horizontal trendline now being tested is carried forward from a monthly chart, I consider that line as representing a zone near that 555.60-ish value, rather than a single level of S/R.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 2:15:43 PM

Day Trade to Swing: Our QQQQ Long at 35.42 will be held overnight if our stop of 35.21 is not reached. If we were trading stocks, exiting on the close would most likley be the case; however, this ETF is rather liquid and doesn't offer "as much" systemmic risk. short term trend is slighly bearish, but let's leave our stop in place at 35.21.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 2:06:06 PM

Internals at Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 2:05:41 PM

2:00 P.M. Market Watch at Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 2:03:52 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 2:01:39 PM

QQQQ's choppy short cycle downphase has yet to reach oversold territory, and the 30 min cycle channel support has declined to overlap the 60 at 35.21. A break below 35.20 would violate the morning lowamd set the stage for a test of the 35.10-.13 support zone. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 1:56:28 PM

Within that rectangular consolidation pattern, the OEX's five-minute pattern begins to look a little like a H&S formation. I think we should still consider the rectangular formation as holding sway and as being more neutral than bearish, but we should still watch the direction it breaks. A drop below the 200-sma should confirm the downside break, but the upside one, confirmed on a break to a new HOD, will then run right into the 200-ema, likely resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 1:48:04 PM

QQQQ is trading both sides of the pennant apex and the 7200 tick SMA, with the 30 and 60 min channel upphases stalled and the 30 min ticking down. However, the daily cycle has the 10-day stochastic on a bullish kiss, with today's price action holding in the upper end of Friday's range off a higher low. The 60 min cycle oscillators still point up, nowhere near overbought yet, and while this flat range can break in either direction, the cycle picture favors upside on these longer intraday and daily cycles.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 1:45:52 PM

Most likely old news: CRAWFORD, Texas (Reuters) - President Bush on Monday said he would tell Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah that high oil prices will damage markets and will discuss the kingdom's oil production capacity with the Saudi leader. "The crown prince understands that it is very important to make sure that prices are reasonable. High oil prices will damage markets. He knows that," Bush told reporters before welcoming Abdullah at his Texas ranch....June Crude Oil is lower by 0.40 down to Daily S1 (30-minute delay)

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 1:42:56 PM

Even though the Dow and QQQQs seem like they want to make new highs, I am going to have to wait until price action confirms the new highs. The Banking Index (BIX) is at 349 but the SOX is having some difficulties bidding. If we close near these levels, then buying new highs for the week should make sense.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 1:42:36 PM

No breakout yet on the OEX. It's still inside the rectangular consolidation pattern it's been forming today. Support continues to soften, but the OEX continues to hold up nonetheless.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 1:36:21 PM

Sectors on the move: Housing +2%, Oil +1.6%, Broker/Dealer +1.6%, Natural Gas +1.4%, Health Provider +1.4%, Chemical +1.2%, Steel +1.3%, Tobacco +1.2%, Healthcare +1%, REITs +1%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 1:34:44 PM

QQQQ's back to Daily R1 and this "should" be more bullish as we head into the afternoon session. Dow approaching triple digit gains again.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 1:32:22 PM

OEX bears might point to the way the OEX holds above the 200-sma--a point in their favor. Bears might look at the softening Keltner support--a point in their favor.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 1:24:04 PM

Volume breadth has weakened slightly, with 3.25 advancing shares for each declining on the NYSE, 2.9 on the Nasdaq. The TRINQ is up to .54, while the NYSE TRIn is up to .75, both reflecting neutral buying pressure.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 1:17:33 PM

On a Keltner basis, the OEX's support continues to soften, but the OEX clings to a Keltner line currently at 555.04. That clinging suggests that the OEX could try to rise again.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 1:13:33 PM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link with a weak short cycle downphase in progress.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 1:05:41 PM

The 16B 3-month t-bill auction generated a bid to cover ratio of 2.69 with a high rate of 2.88%, with foreign central banks taking a paltry 2.4B of the total. For the 14B 6 month bills, the bid to cover ratio was 2.49 at a high rate of 3.09%, with indirect bidders taking 4.2B of the total.

Currently, ten year treasury yields are down .8 bps at 4.247%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 1:05:32 PM

Internals at Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 1:03:39 PM

1:00 P.M. Market Watch at Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 12:57:24 PM

Ten year treasuries have drifted back to positive, with ten year note yields now down 0.8 bps to 4.247%, breaking Friday's low. Updated daily TNX chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 12:53:47 PM

The TRAN's 15-minute Keltner support hasn't softened in the same way that the OEX's has. If the TRAN pulls back, support near 3465 looks strong enough to prompt a bounce attempt. So far today, the TRAN finds support on a Keltner line currently at 3474.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 12:50:18 PM

QQQQ losing the rising triangle support line here: Link . 30 and 60 min channel support are at 35.25 and 35.21 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 12:49:33 PM

Fifteen-minute OEX Keltner support continues to soften.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 12:47:14 PM

I keep looking for some formation, some Keltner evidence, that will give clear insight into next OEX direction, but all I see for now is a rectangular trading patttern that was established today, with support about to be tested again.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 12:43:09 PM

Day Trade Long Cancel Cancel VeriSign (VRSN) 30.01 long entry..shares currently at 29.75 and a will consider actually entering on a buy stop of 29.90. lower lows and lower highs forces change in sentiment.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 12:36:03 PM

QQQQ's did make a lower low and lower high on an intraday chart, but only pulled back to 1/2 the day's range - popular support/resistance level. Certainly will not add to our 1/2 long position, and 1/2 position seemed to make sense. VRSN at 29.70...may cancel long entry shortly.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 12:35:24 PM

Just the dreaded consolidation so far on the OEX. Bulls have lots of evidence in their favor--a potential inverse H&S, Friday's higher low, a move back above the 200-sma. Bears can point to some evidence, too--a failure to build on the move back above the 200-sma, the relative stronger importance of the 200-ema in this spring's trading pattern over the 200-sma, and the presence of the broadening formation that says the OEX hasn't really broken out yet. So far, both bulls and bears are encouraged but still uneasy, and we're seeing the resultant consolidation.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 12:32:49 PM

June crude has just broken 55, down to 54.95 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 12:27:35 PM

QQQQ's still holding the rising triangle support trendline after dipping to 35.34. The short cycle is ticking lower within the rising 30 and 60 min cycles.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 12:25:26 PM

Session low for Nymex crude here at 55.225, -.175.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 12:22:08 PM

The 15-minute Keltner support has softened somewhat. The OEX now tests first Keltner support near 555. Below that, support is spread rather widely from 552.28-553.81. This may suggest that the OEX might pull back, but the OEX also has support other than Keltner, at the 200-sma, for example.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 12:16:28 PM

QQQQ pulling back to the pennant apex after a second test of the rising triangle resistance at the day high. Bulls need to see that 35.35 line hold, bears need it broken to invalidate the rising triangle. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 12:16:00 PM

SOX and COMPX held daily pivot, Dow held Daily R1....QQQQ's stuggles with Daily R1. Hard to buy new highs, but even harder to sell them. VRSN at 29.85 and below our 30.01 long buy stop entry.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 12:14:27 PM

No movement from ten year notes, with the TNX down to a 0.3 bp gain at 4.258%. Hopefully the conclusion of the auction at 1PM will see some movement to follow.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 12:11:17 PM

The OEX so far has not been able to best the previous HOD. So far, it's consolidating between the 200-sma and -ema as I feared it might do.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 12:05:39 PM

Internals at Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 12:04:26 PM

12:00 P.M. Market Watch at Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 12:03:11 PM

The lack of volume on the upside break, and the light volume overall today is troublesome. But the steady pattern of higher lows, if not indicating a pennant breakout for QQQQ, suggests a bullish rising triangle below 35.46. If so, then volume should pop strongly on a break to new intraday highs.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 11:52:33 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes. I still expect resistance at the 200-ema and the 61.8% retracement of the decline off the 4/12 high, with that figure at 557.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 11:50:28 AM

QQQQ has broken the top of the pennant apex Link but on light volume so far, leaving it susceptible to a whipsaw. Nonetheless, the prior high has been been broken and 35.35 should now act as support.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 11:50:07 AM

The OEX still tests Keltner resistance, not yet confirming an upside breakout by a break to a new HOD.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 11:49:50 AM

Day Trade Long, Entry (QQQQs)...filled on 1/2 position at 35.42 with stop at 35.21. Conservative trade, but the market hasn't given us a reason to sell.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 11:44:46 AM

OEX 15-mminute Keltner resistance is from 556.17-556.50.

Tab Gilles : 4/25/2005 11:44:10 AM

$VXN/$NDX/$NAHL/$NASI Signaling entry. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 11:44:07 AM

The OEX tries to break out of the flag in which it's been trading most of the morning, pulling back slightly as it hits Keltner support. The breakout is tepid, at least so far.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2005 11:42:54 AM

Dateline CNN Kenneth Langone, who is mounting a bid for the New York Stock Exchange, has called a meeting for 2 p.m. EDT today to discuss his plan, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Mr. Langone is expected to give more details on his vision for the NYSE and gauge whether Wall Street is willing to throw money behind his proposal. Many senior Wall Street executives are expected to attend today's meeting.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 11:39:56 AM

No net change for ten year bonds, TNX +0.4% at 4.259%. Crude oil is down to a .025 gain at 55.425.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 11:39:27 AM

Most equities in some sort of either accumulation or distribution phase, and with green across the board there is a good chance it is accumulation. Not sure I will buy a dip later in the day.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 11:35:49 AM

The advdec line has not confirmed its potential H&S, and the right shoulder just extends sideways. The formation will soon be invalidated because it's just dissolving sideways.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 11:32:31 AM

A 30-minute chart of the OEX, showing some key S/R levels: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 11:29:55 AM

QQQQ's slid sideways again, and the pattern is looking like a neutral pennant Link . This should be a continuation pattern, which would, in this case, break to the upside to follow the 60 min cycle upphase. A break below 35.30 would be the first sign of trouble for the pattern, though false breaks and whipsaws are common in pennant apexes. 30 min channel support is at 35.20.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 11:25:30 AM

So far today, the OEX has been consolidating between its 200-sma and 200-ema, which I was afraid might happen if the OEX did pop above the Keltner resistance and 50% retracement of the decline off the 4/12 high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 11:25:26 AM

Day Trade Long, QQQQs...Go long QQQQ's 1/2 position at 35.42 on a buy stop with a stop at 35.21. Objective of 35.68.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 11:19:01 AM

The OEX is declining toward first Keltner support, now at 554.35. Next support below that is at 552.05-552.68.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 11:18:21 AM

The advdec line may be rolling down into a right shoulder for its H&S.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 11:17:58 AM

Day Trade Long, VRSN..go Long VRSN 1/2 position at 30.01 on a buy-stop with a stop at 29.60. playing the breakout, so a little aggressive; but buying strength so should help.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 11:11:10 AM

The OEX still can't sustain a move above the upper trendline of the broadening formation of above Keltner resistance, but it is holding above the 200-sma. Mixed evidence. I'm still watching the potential H&S on the advdec line for clues.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 11:08:32 AM

Daily R1 in QQQQs acting as resistance...again.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 11:05:36 AM

Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 11:05:28 AM

QQQQ bounces back above the 7200 tick SMA line, still within what appears to be a corrective short cycle downphase. The 30 min cycle upphase stalled on the SMA support break earlier, but will be restored if price holds above it for another few minutes. Because of this morning's 60 min channel upturn, a consolidation at current levels should be more bullish than bearish, but the next short cycle upphase will have to break the prior intraday high at 35.46 for that to confirm.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 11:05:17 AM

11:00 a.m. Market Watch at Link

Tab Gilles : 4/25/2005 11:03:28 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Once again the 100 and 150 daily ema has shown to be a profitable entry point. Link

On a longer term weekly chart using 2 diffrent setting on the MACD. I'm still cautious on a full commitment into MUR. A partial position and tight stops would be a smart way to play this. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 11:03:02 AM

The BIX rises today, but has a continuation-form potential H&S at the bottom of its decline, with the right-shoulder level being tested/about to be tested. While I don't trust these continuation-form H&S's as much as topping ones (and I don't completely trust those), that doesn't mean that I don't watch them.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 11:01:34 AM

The RLX gains strongly today, too, but within its recent consolidation zone. The RLX has spend many days lately with each trading day reversing the previous day's move. It's happening again today.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 10:59:55 AM

The pullback on the OEX's 15-minute chart so far looks corrective, like a possible bull flag. First support is at a Keltner line currently at 553.92. Stronger support lies at 551.77-552.42.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 10:59:22 AM

Volume breadth is strong on both exchanges, with the NYSE seeing advancing volume ahead of declining volume 3.55 shares to 1. On the Nasdaq, it's 3.11:1. The TRINQ is at the low end of neutral, +.43 currently, ditto the TRIN at .65.

Tab Gilles : 4/25/2005 10:56:14 AM

Value Line Arithmetic Index ($VLE) Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 10:54:59 AM

Can't get a good read. QQQQ's under Daily R1 and in-between daily pivot and R1. Internals still slightly bullish but tough to find good long entry.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 10:53:11 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link , breaking 7200 tick SMA support for the first time today and stalling the 30 min channel upphase.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 10:50:21 AM

Gold and silver continue to hold their losses, June gold -.90 at 434.80 and silver -.039 at 7.234. HUI is down 1.17% at 186.53 and XAU -1.05% at 87.46.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 10:49:09 AM

Potential H&S building on the advdec line. Watch for either an invalidation or a confirmation.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 10:48:19 AM

Wild Oats (OATS)...10.25..above Daily R1 and looks poised for a breakout. volume a little light for day traders.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 10:46:17 AM

On Keltner evidence alone, the OEX looks vulnerable to a pullback to a Keltner line currently at 553.98, but that's disregarding the historical S/R on the 15-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 10:43:38 AM

Ten year bonds are sliding sideways in light negative territory, TNX up 0.6 bps at 4.261%. The Treasury is auctioning 30B in 3 month and 6 month bills today, the results of which will be released just past 1PM.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 10:39:29 AM

The OEX can't sustain a breakout above the top trendline of the broadening formation, at least not yet. It's coming back to test historical resistance from last week, to see if it holds as support, however.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 10:39:23 AM

Dow coming back to test Daily R1 and this should be important for the day's sentiment. QQQQ's still under noted resistance and Daily R1 of 35.44 while SOX under pressure. cautiously bullish.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 10:36:56 AM

QQQQ continues to test 35.33 support, but volume has been declining so far off the highs Link , suggesting that this pullback remains corrective. If 35.33 breaks, next support is at 35.22-.24.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 10:32:23 AM

Keltner resistance is trying to snake back above the current OEX position.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 10:26:12 AM

Without a sustained breakout (on 15-minute closes) above the Keltner line currently at 556.19, the OEX perhaps looks vulnerable to a pullback to a line currently at 553.17 and perhaps down to 552-ish support. Despite what the Keltner charts show, an examination of the chart shows historical support evident at 554.40-554.70, so that could provide support on a pullback, ahead of Keltner support.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 10:22:28 AM

The OEX is testing 15-minute Keltner resistance and the top of its broadening formation. No sustained breakout of either just yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 10:19:57 AM

Crude oil has reopened and is down to a .05 gain at 55.45 currently.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 10:19:25 AM

The OEX keeps inching above the top trendline of the broadening formation, but then pulling back under that trendline again, as it's doing now.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 10:19:07 AM

QQQQ has printed a high at 35.46, lined up with Friday's high, and is pulling back to retest the former resistance at 35.33. The 60 min channel is at last pulling up to get in gear with the 30 min cycle upphase, and if 35.33 holds, the next bounce should provide a more aggressive test of the current high. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 10:17:06 AM

Millennium Pharmaceuticals (MLNM) a good example...bullish but neeed a pullback to say Daily R1. 9.16 currently. R1 at 9.05.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 10:14:54 AM

With QQQQ's coming into some short term resistance, a slight pullback in may give us an opportunity within equities. Missed a few longs and execution is key instead of simply chasing stocks during this first hour of trade.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 10:14:16 AM

The OEX is testing one version of the broadening formation on its 30-minute chart, now well above the 50% retracement of the drop off the 4/12 high. Next resistance at the 200-sma and then at the 61.8% retracement of that drop, at 557.80. Bulls do not want to see a quick drop back, deeper inside the broadening formation. They don't particularly want to see a prolonged consolidation between the 200-sma and 200-ema.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 10:11:49 AM

The OEX pushes toward the top of the broadening formation, with that top just above 556. The 200-ema was influential in trading for almost a month, and that's at 557.19.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 10:11:23 AM

TIVO breaking out also...6.47 and there is also some more upside but risky taking long position at current levels. 6.32 support.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 10:12:13 AM

Session low for 10-year bonds, with TNX up 1 bp at 4.265% here. Daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 10:09:37 AM

VeriSign (VRSN)..30 +3.41%. Missed the long and there is probably some more upside; however, risk getting high at these levels for long position. 29.80 some support below.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 10:08:49 AM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link , so far holding above 35.20 with the short cycle oscillators sliding sideways within the 30 min channel upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 10:07:19 AM

Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 10:04:59 AM




Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 10:02:08 AM

The OEX inches just above its 200-sma again, up toward the 50% retracement of the decline off the 4/12 high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 10:01:18 AM

10:00 a.m. Market Watch at Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 10:02:29 AM

Corrected headline:


Expectations were for 6.80M.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 9:57:38 AM

The Fed has no repos expiring today, and the open market desk has just announced a 5.25B overnight repo, for a large net add in that amount.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 9:57:06 AM

This is the same place that made a good bearish entry Friday, but is it a good bearish entry now? I just don't know. Advdec line is still strong, and not excessively high. VIX still headed down: TRIN not suggesting a good bearish entry. . . and the OEX heads up within that zone as I type. I'm not seeing a green light just yet. The possibility of a pop above that resistance zone still exists.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 9:54:35 AM

VRSN making new highs..29.75..watching QQQQ's for some confirmation. ERTS not keeping morning strength but holding Daily R1.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 9:53:14 AM

In light of the 30 min cycle upphase, any short cycle downphase from here should be corrective and bottom at or above the 7200 tick SMA at 35.08 currently. 30 min channel support has risen to 35.00, resistance to 35.40.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 9:47:44 AM

Here's what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart currently shows. There's resistance at a line currently at 554.08, but stronger resistance is probably up near 555.60, just above the 50% retracement of the decline off the 4/12 high. Support is near 551.70, and looks strong enough to prompt a bounce again, if tested. However, bulls are going to have memories of Friday's drive right though that "support," so it may be more tentative than it looks.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 9:47:04 AM

Existing home sales due in 13 minutes, est. 6.8M.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 9:46:30 AM

VIX at 15.50.. Daily S2 at 13.46, S1 13.95, Daily Pivot 14.91, R1 15.39 and R2 at 16.35.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 9:43:56 AM

OEX bulls will be aware of the possible inverse H&S building on the OEX's 30 and 60-minute charts, with a steeply ascending neckline. That neckline is currently just below 556, between the 200-sma and 200-ema. This formation is the basis of the broadening formation at the bottom of the climb, too, but remember that inverse H&S's can be and sometimes are rejected, and so far the OEX finds resistance just where it did last week.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 9:43:33 AM

QQQQ pulls back from a high of 35.33, currently testing rising short cycle channel support. The short cycle is overbought and due for a pullback, the 7200 tick SMA support just starting to rise down at 35.07. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 9:39:10 AM

The OEX is right back from the point at which it began its steep decline Friday afternoon. It has the same Keltner support beneath it that it did then. We're about to see if bulls can muster enough strength to break out to the upside. Bulls know to protect profits in this area, so don't need a warning. The 50% retracement of the decline off the 4/12 high is just under 555, and that's the next significant resistance to watch. The 200-sma, above at 557.17 might be the next above that.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 9:38:13 AM

Bonds have pulled back off their highs, slipping back into Friday's morning range with TNX back to unchanged at 4.255%. crude oil finished the night session +.375 at 55.775, while gold and silver have pulled up within negative territory, HUI and XAU both fractionally lower.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 9:36:44 AM

Electronic Arts....51.63 +1% also showing strength. QQQQ's at lows of day so will look for overall market direction as far as position size is concerned if long taken.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 9:36:05 AM

The OEX gapped above the 15-minute Keltner channel resistance, not helping at all to settle those Friday-scattered Keltner lines into something that gives more information about next direction.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 9:34:28 AM

The OEX's 200-sma s currently at 554.28.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 9:34:15 AM

VeriSign (VRSN) getting closed to breaking out on multiple timeframes...29.69, +2.27%

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 9:33:44 AM

The OEX does head into that 552-555 zone, in fact gapping into it. It's currently testing the 200-sma and the 30-minute 130-ema, an average that stopped it late last week.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 9:26:03 AM

Futures are higher, so the OEX may be headed into that 552-555 consolidation zone from last week. Hopefully, a look at the OEX as it trades within that zone should give us clues as to next direction, but even if the OEX breaks higher, I wouldn't be surprised to see a new consolidation zone set up between the 200-sma and 200-ema, so I'm not expecting sustained gains above 558.00, and maybe not even that high. I'm not expecting an upside break, just watching for one. Wouldn't be surprised to see another downturn through the broadening formation, either, but have to see what happens after the cash open, as I mentioned earlier.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 9:22:23 AM

QQQQs Daily Pivot at 35.12..

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 9:16:19 AM

QQQQ's retraced all of its losses since noon Friday, currently trading +.22 at 35.31. A 30 min cycle upphase is in progress, with the 60 min channel downphase stalled. Unless price pulls back immediately from the open and breaks south of 35.10-.13, the 60 min channel should turn up to join the 30, providing a bullish bias for at least this morning. Above 35.33-.35, next resistance is at Friday's opening highs.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 9:14:39 AM

QQQQs at 35.31....Last Week's Weekly Pivot 35.40 and today's Daily R1 at 35.44...may head there this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 9:13:35 AM

Companies in the news AAPL, MU, ELX, FDC, SBUX, CIEN and JCI. Also, Internet & E-Commerce sector was downgraded the group to Market Weight by CIBC, citing valuation and weakening fundamentals

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2005 9:07:30 AM

Program Trading Levels for Monday...HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.05 and set for program selling at $+.36.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 8:59:20 AM

Late Friday, the bulls decided that the declines were finished. Are they? The end-of-day gains ran the OEX right back up to the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the 4/12 high, the 50-dma and into Keltner resistance. It also jammed the OEX beneath the 30-minute 21-ema, with the 30-minute 21/100/130-ema's all playing a part in Friday's trading pattern. All this occurred within a broadening formation on the 60-minute chart: Link

You know what I'm going to say before I say it, don't you? We can't trust any actions, including the decline or the strong end-of-day rally, occurring within a broadening formation. As this week's trading opens, I think we have fewer clues than we did Friday as to what happens next, but the daily Keltner charts shows that despite that end-of-day rally, Friday's trading erased the upside breakout signal that had been created Thursday. The daily chart suggests that until there's a daily close back above 552.81, the OEX remains vulnerable to a decline to about 545.30 or even 542.50 if the first support fails. The top of that broadening formation is now at about 555.60 and the bottom is far below, near 540.80, so that a decline to daily Keltner support again might constitute a near test of the broadening formations' bottom support.

The 15-minute Keltner chart's supporting and resistance lines were scattered too much by Friday's late-day action to be too predictive as to early direction this morning, but they suggested that the OEX was up against Keltner resistance that might be strong enough to at least halt the climb if not cause the OEX to pull back to test support. First support is near 550.80, with support below that near 548 and still turning lower. Resistance is at the OEX's closing price and then just under 553.48 and near 555.40, just under the 50% retracement of the decline off the 4/12 high.

I think we have to wait until the open and watch a bit before we can form a strong opinion of what happens next. I do, at least.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 8:35:32 AM

Bonds have held their light gains past the cash open, with ten year note yields down 1.2 bps to 4.243%. Equities are popping higher, with QQQQ up .16 to a 35.25, just breaking the 30 min channel top now. NQ is at a session high of 1436, ditto ES at 1159.75 and YM at 10211.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/25/2005 7:47:12 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1156, NQ 1430.5, YM 10180 and QQQQ +.06 at 35.15. Gold is down 1.6 to a session low of 434.10, silver -.047 at 7.226, ten year notes are up 3/32 to 111 1/8 and crude oil is up .225 to 55.625.

We await the 10AM release of Existing home sales for March, est. 6.8M.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2005 7:08:34 AM

Good morning. Last night, China's Safe Deputy Chief affirmed that the country would move forward with yuan reform, doing so in a positive but prudent manner. He did not feel that the small yuan appreciation that could be expected would do much to reduce the trade imbalance with the U.S., one article noted. Other Chinese officials spent the weekend making similar statements, with a shakeup in the currency market resulting. The yen strengthened against the dollar as many Asian currencies strengthened. The Nikkei gained, but other Asian bourses were mixed, many closing near the flat-line levels. European markets turn lower, pressured by rising crude prices. Our futures have traded sideways down during the overnight session, currently being modestly negative. As of 6:28 EST, gold was down $1.00, and crude, up $0.27 to $55.63. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

March's Japanese corporate service price index climbed 0.6% month over month, but fell 0.8% year-over year. The Nikkei opened, dipped slightly below the flat-line level, and then began climbing. It hit its high of the day in the early afternoon, but then drifted sideways down the rest of the afternoon. It closed higher by 27.82 points or 0.25%, at 11,073.77, with internals negative. Matsushita Electric dropped ahead of earnings later in the week, and Nissan dropped ahead of its after-the-close earnings. Those earnings proved to be in line with expectations, with net profit rising 1.7% for the year, net revenue climbing 15% and operating profit growing 4.4%.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.15%, but South Korea's Kospi was down 0.06%. Singapore's Straits Times closed lower by 0.04%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was closed, as were several other Asian bourses. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 0.85%.

European markets are lower, with gains in crude prices pressuring the markets. Oil-related issues rose. Germany's Ifo Institute's indicator for business climate declined from March's 94 to a 93.3 for April. This was below forecasts.

Auto manufacturers turn lower, with Volvo bucking the early trend as it reported earnings. Volvo said that demand in Europe has flattened. DaimlerChrysler may be near a sale of a 45% position in Debis AirFrance. Although many banks turned lower, HSBC benefited from a CSFB upgrade to outperform, with the firm noting acceleration in the pace of lending and revenue growth. In early trading, German drug manufacturer Schering was gaining after reporting earnings that including an 11% rise in net profit and 4% rise in sales in the first quarter. Schering quantified the currency impact at 2%. Nestle also reported earnings and moved higher in early trading. Nestle mentioned that the company was able to push some higher costs in raw materials through to consumers.

In other stock-specific news, Citigroup Smith Barney upgraded chip manufacturer Infineon to a buy rating, and the stock rose in early trading; Citigroup Smith Barney and Lehman Brothers both downgraded pharmaceutical company Ciba, and it dropped; and Lehman cut biotech Serona, and it slid lower in early trading. M&A activity included news that Constellation Brands may join the bidding for drinks group Allied Domecq. Reuters Group announced that it will take a 26% position in Times Global Broadcasting Co., the broadcasting unit of the Times of India Group, and Barclays announced it's considering taking a 60% stake in a South African bank, ABSA. Allied Domecq gained, but both Reuters and Barclays slipped in early trading.

As of 6:51 EST, the FTSE 100 had dropped 0.60 points or 0.01%, to 4,848.70. The CAC 40 had fallen 6.15 points or 0.15%, to 3,974.03. The DAX had dropped 9.88 points or 0.23%, to 4,213.16.

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