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OI Technical Staff : 4/26/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 5:24:43 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 4:12:21 PM

Today's Activity Sold Short Volterra (VLTR) at 11.06 and covered at 10.85. Sold Short Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) at 35.66 and covered at 35.26.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 4:11:29 PM

OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 4:08:39 PM

Closing Internals at Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 4:04:42 PM

Closing Market Watch Link

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 3:55:08 PM

The OEX approaches its Keltner downside target, also Keltner support. The OEX today turned down from the neckline of its confirmed H&S, rolling down below its 200-sma again in the process. This certainly doesn't support a bearish case, but the rollover just brought the OEX down within that broadening formation again. If you're in a bearish position, it might be a good idea to take profit on at least some of that position as Keltner support is tested. The OEX could roll down all the way through the broadening formation, but there's no more assurance of that than there was of the OEX breaking out to the upside just because it pushed above the 200-sma.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 3:52:38 PM

QQQQs will almost certainly close below Weekly Pivot and the 'last hour' selling took some time to develop. 35.08 currently as 35.06 is day's low. Should settle on lows.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 3:45:54 PM

Marc is noting on the Futures side that the SPX is hitting its 200-sma.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 3:42:38 PM

Volterra (VLTR) back to 11.11 after trading down to 10.56. Not a short this time up, but watch 11.40 as resistance.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 3:42:08 PM

The OEX turns down again toward the Keltner target, now descended to 550.94.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 3:41:45 PM

QQQQ loses it here, dropping back below the SMA line. 30 and 60 min channel support are down to the 35 level, lining up with the 34.96-35.00 confluence: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 3:33:19 PM

The OEX has still not been able to erase the downside signal, suggesting a test of a Keltner line currently at 551.13. The last thirty minutes of the day is sometimes less about charts than usual, however.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 3:26:20 PM

QQQQs sure bounced from Weekly Pivot well..35.21...apparently shorts covering. The initial thought will be to sell against Daily R1 tomorrow, but today's short could easily be the best of the week as Weekly R1 held.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 3:24:28 PM

American Express (AXP) Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.75 per share, in line with the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.75; revenues rose 9.6% year/year to $7.57 bln vs the $7.53 bln consensus.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 3:24:23 PM

QQQQ is poking its head above the 7200 tick SMA resistance at 35.17 herem with bullish divergences showing in the short cycle oscillators. Channel resistance lines up at 35.30-.35, but should shift higher if price holds above the 7200 tick SMA from here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 3:23:31 PM

Sector News: Biotech +1.4% (DNA +6.8%, PDLI +7.9%, IMCL +7.8%), Housing +1.3% and Semi +0.8%. The downside has Steel -3%, Tobacco -2.5%, Computer-Hardware -2.2% and Oil Service -0.9%.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 3:22:32 PM

The OEX still tests Keltner resistance near 553.30, not yet able to break back above it, but sure trying.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 3:17:30 PM

With the QQQQs back at Weekly Pivot, selling could pick up in the last hour and will monitor to see if the QQQQs can close back below the 35.13 level. There are plenty of earnings on the close, and odds still point towards lower prices. The interesting thing is that the VIX is under its daily pivot and this could imply call sellers instead of put buyers.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 3:14:03 PM

Big OEX bounce up to test Keltner resistance near 553.36, but that resistance holds so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 3:09:59 PM

Marc, thanks for that article. The money supply is different from, though related to liquidity available to the markets- the Fed's open market operations are a give-and-take between the Fed and its dealers, whose easiest receptacle for that money is the bond, stock, commodity and currency markets. I'll try to spend some time poking around Economagic and generate some charts.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 3:05:13 PM

Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 3:05:01 PM

Bears, remember that although the OEX did roll over from resistance today, it's rolling down within a broadening formation and anything can and does happen within such a broadening formation. Don't get married to your positions. Stay agile. The OEX now attempts to rise to test Keltner resistance, near 553.30, but remains vulnerable to a drop toward 551.24.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 3:04:34 PM

Just as the ten year note yield (TNX) printed a key outside reversal/bullish engulfing, today's higher high followed by a higher low is a bearish engulfing for QQQQ- not a bullish setup. If ten year yields rising coincides with QQQQ declining, and the TNX is verging on daily cycle buy signal from here, then there's good reason to doubt the daily cycle upturn for QQQQ.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 3:02:44 PM

3:00 P.M. Market Watch at Link

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 3:00:35 PM

I felt kind of dumb earlier insisting as the OEX beat Friday's high by a touch that it hadn't broken out to the upside, but not so dumb right now. Downside target now on the 15-minute Keltner channels is 551.26. Bears should have profit-protecting plans from the current level down to 551.26 in case of a bounce. A 15-minute close below the line at 551.29 would create a downside target near 545.98.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 2:59:17 PM

Bonds about to close...equity markets on or near their lows. QQQQs 35.08.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 2:55:05 PM

Ten year bonds recovered most of their losses today, TNX currently 1.6 bps higher at 4.267% with 6 minutes until the cash close. Despite the blowoff top, today's TNX candle remains a bullish engulfing / key outside reversal, and the 10-day stochastic is still on its preliminary buy signal. Daily chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 2:53:19 PM

The OEX's 15-minute chart now shows a vulnerability to a decline to 551.36. Resistance is from 553.32-554.19.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 2:49:45 PM

QQQQ still holding below the 7200 tick SMA, as it has since this morning. The declining 30 and 60 min cycles remain bearish below that level, currently down to 35.22. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 2:47:46 PM

Since March, the Fed's open market operations have reflected an increasing willingness to drain reserves than anything seen in 2003. I don't chart the morning open market operations, but until a few days ago, I'd been counting off a larger number of drains than adds, and have been noticing the increased tightening since March.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 2:47:40 PM

The Dow sometimes adheres fairly well to its 15-minute Keltner channels' support and resistance levels, as I've mentioned before. The Dow's chart suggests that the Dow is vulnerable to a drop to about 10,158. Until and unless the Dow can produce 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 10,201.87, it remains vulnerable to that decline. The Dow is trying to rise to test that resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 2:42:46 PM

The key could be what side the QQQQs close on the Weekly Pivot. The Dow also failed at Weekly R1 and its Weekly PIvot is below at 10126 and should be support. The S&P 500 also failed at Weekly R1 with Weekly Pivot at 1154. Currently at 1157. Even movement under the WPs by 3:00 p.m. could provide for a short during the last hour.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 2:41:30 PM

The TRAN is testing Friday's low, with a downside breakout on the 15-minute channel setting a downside target near 3391.97. Last Friday, the TRAN created such a downside target and erased it within two 15-minute periods, but so far, it's not showing the same inclination to erase the breakdown signal.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 2:39:30 PM

The OEX is testing Keltner mid-channel resistance at 553.33, with resistance that may be stronger at 553.90-554.26.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 2:38:44 PM

Volume breadth is negative, but not excessively so, 1.7 declining NYSE shares for each advancing, 2.5 declining Nasdaqs for each advancing. Thr TRIN is showing neutral selling pressure at .95, ditto the TRINQ at 1.18.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 2:31:23 PM

Here's the OEX chart I originally posted at 9:17 this morning, showing the OEX turning down from the top trendline of its broadening formation and from a near approach to the top of its descending regression channel: Link I'm not suggesting that the OEX will necessarily roll all the way down through that channel and through the broadening formation. What I'm suggesting is the same thing I've been saying for several days. We haven't yet seen an upside breakout, and there's no assurance that the OEX can't turn down from those resistance lines just as it has for a long while.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 2:26:23 PM

The 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators are pointing south, neither even close to oversold territory, and the bounces at the bottom of the cycle channels is attributable to the bottomy and now trending short cycle only. 30 min channel resistance is down to 35.25, and QQQQ remains bearish below it.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 2:24:06 PM

Forgot to mention that next Keltner support has descended to the OEX's current 552.65-ish level and then at 551.50 below that.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 2:22:49 PM

OEX Keltner support continues to soften and resistance continues to strengthen. Nearest resistance is at 553.34, but stronger resistance is found from 554.10-554.32.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 2:19:32 PM

QQQQs back to Weekly Pivot of 35.13 and would have been the "ideal" short exit instead of our 35.26 exit. If we get a close below the WP, then we target 34.54 by week's end. Too hard to sell here, but short term trend clearly still bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 2:14:38 PM

Internals at Link

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 2:13:17 PM

First Keltner resistance holds on the OEX, and so it does come back to test support again. That support weakens a little, but is down to 553.09.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 2:09:56 PM

2:00 P.M. Market Watch at Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 2:10:04 PM

QQQQ reversing below 35.33-.35 resistance, back to test 35.18-.20 at the session low. If this breaks, 30 min channel support down to 35.10 here, at teh bottom of confluence- support cracking as I type. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 2:03:04 PM

Bonds are recovering off their lows, moving at last, with Zn up to 110 29/32 and TNX down to a 2.2 bp gain at 4.273%. So far, the test of daily descending resistance held, but the higher high has the 10 day stochastic flashing that preliminary buy signal: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 1:49:33 PM

The OEX rises to test next Keltner resistance near 554.45. Those hoping to see the OEX rise will want to see a 15-minute close above that resistance, while those hoping for more declines will want to see the OEX produce 15-minute closes beneath that line.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 1:44:36 PM

A couple of big volume QQQQ trades just now, 1.3M shares+ within a single 100-tick bar. 35.33-.35 is immediate upside confluence resistance, followed by the 35.40 7200 tick SMA. The oversold short cycle oscillators are already ticking up on the bounce from 35.18.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 1:41:04 PM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart shows resistance at 554.51 and support at the 553.30-ish level. A failure to produce 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 554.51 will suggest that the OEX isn't through testing support.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 1:37:05 PM

Nymex crude is up to a 35 cent loss at 54.225. 2 day 30 tick chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 1:36:06 PM

Day Trade Exit We took profits at 35.26 from our 35.66 short entry as there could be both a small double bottom and bounce from Daily S1. For a day trade in the QQQQs, 0.40 is a good move and that is why had that stop so tight. Usually 0.20 is the objective.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 1:32:58 PM

Back to find a sharp plunge through 35.20 correcting back up now, with QQQQ trying to regain the broken channel bottoms from 35.25. The short cycles are maxxed out to the downside, and either they bounce here or begin a bearish trending move. If the latter, yesterday's low and the 35.10-.13 confluence are key support for daily cycle bulls looking for that higher daily high/low. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 1:31:22 PM

Day Trade Exit, QQQQs Move stop down to 35.26 and just above last 5-min high.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 1:29:30 PM

Below this level, next OEX support is likely the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the 4/12 high, with that level being just above 552.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 1:28:38 PM

The OEX heads down to test Keltner support near 553.30, with the bearish-style Keltner divergence at today's high perhaps predicting a test of this mid-channel level.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 1:22:29 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 1:20:04 PM

If the OEX should drop to 553-553.15, there might be enough historical support to send it higher again. There's Keltner support, too, near 553.32. I had thought earlier that a drop might take the OEX down to the 552-ish area, and it might, but bears need to be aware of that potential 553-ish support.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 1:15:33 PM

June gold is back to its session high, +3 at 439, while HUI and XAU hold in negative territory, HUI -.88% at 187.46 and XAU -.88% at 87.8. Nymex crude is up to a .675 loss at 53.90, while ten year bonds aren't budging, TNX still up 3.8 bps at 4.289%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 1:13:09 PM

Day Trade Short, QQQQs Move stop down to 35.38 (35.66 entry) and top of last five-minute bar. Would also most likely confirm daily pivot as support.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 1:10:31 PM

QQQQs at Daily Pivot....35.33.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 1:07:40 PM

The 5-yr TIPS auction generated a weak 1.88 bid-to-cover ratio with a high yield of 1.2%. Indirect bidders took more than half of the auction, however, a whopping 4.85B of the 9B total.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 1:15:25 PM

The advdec line continues lower, but hasn't yet breached the low of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 1:03:56 PM

1:00 P.M. Internals at Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 1:03:17 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link with price stalling at 35.40. The short cycle downphase is reaching the lower end of its range, but bulls will want to see the 35.47 level, followed by the 7200 tick SMA (currently 35.52) exceeded for confirmation.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 1:02:03 PM

1:00 P.M. Market Watch at Link

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 12:52:55 PM

The OEX is trying to hold to support along the descending trendline off Monday's high, former resistance.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2005 12:58:28 PM

INTC is trading above the broken trendline and the 50 dma. Initial target is 24.12, followed by 24.64, 25.50 and ultimately 26.33. This trade has a few weeks to develop and I prefer the June contracts.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 12:52:30 PM

Nymex crude oil is holding down 1 at 53.575, off a low of 53.325. TNX is holding its gains, up 3.8 bps at 4.29%. Awaiting the 5-yr TIPS auction results just after 1PM.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 12:51:38 PM

Day Trade Short, QQQQ Tighten stop on 35.66 short to 35.45 as price action and previous support holding.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2005 12:50:06 PM

Exiting the INTC May 22.5 calls at 1.20 (bought at 1.15) and rotating to the June 22.5 at 1.45.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 12:41:42 PM

OEX 15-minute Keltner support about to be tested. It looks weaker than it did earlier, but perhaps still strong enough to support a bounce attempt.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 12:37:30 PM

QQQQ has just lost that 35.47 support level, with the 30 min cycle channel pointed south and current support lining up with the still-rising 60 min channel bottom at 35.35. Looks like a good recipe for chop, particularly with the daily cycle turning up from oversold territory.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 12:35:20 PM

The OEX again drifts toward 15-minute Keltner support, with first support at 554.39 and next support at 553.26.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 12:33:25 PM

QQQQs, S&P 500 and Dow all above Daily Pivot but trading at the low end of their range over the last few hours. A flush down to these pivot levels wouldn't be unexpected and a surge in volume at the same time may be a reason to take some profits.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 12:20:19 PM

No pullback for ten year note yields (TNX), currently up 3.6 bps at 4.287% and now testing the daily cycle descending resistance line: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 12:17:29 PM

Just more chop today, and it looks to me as if the OEX is broadening its consolidation at the top of its broadening formation. How's that for complicating any decision-making about future direction?

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 12:14:03 PM

Advdec line still dropping off the day's high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 12:12:33 PM

Day Trade Short QQQQs from 35.66. Currently at 35.46, move stop down to 35.54 to make sure this trade is profitable. If 35.34 is traded, then move stop down to 35.47. Will try to give this one some room.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 12:10:43 PM

Volume breadth is mixed, with declining volume leading advancing on the NYSE 1.09:1, while advancing volume leads declining on the Naz 1.18:1. The TRIN and TRINQ are .86 and .62, both in neutral territory.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 12:09:46 PM

Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 12:08:45 PM

QQQQ has just dipped below the 7200 tick SMA at 35.50, now testing 35.47 support from a lower low.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 12:06:19 PM

The OEX is still stuck between the 200-sma and -ema.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 12:06:07 PM

12:00 P.M. Market Watch at Link

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 11:58:37 AM

Here's what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart has to say: The last approach to a Keltner line currently at 556.58 showed Keltner-style bearish divergence as compared to the OEX's last approach to that line. That suggests another test of support, with first Keltner suppor being tested in the 555.30-ish range. Below that, support spans from 553.16-554.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 11:49:41 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link with the former high at 35.46 holding as support. A break of the current high at 35.70 will confirm a bullish whipsaw in the 30 and 60 min cycles, while a failure to reach it would result in the morning bounce looking like a bearish throw-over.

Tab Gilles : 4/26/2005 11:47:23 AM

$FVX up Link EVV down Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 11:47:02 AM

QQQQs failed at Weekly R1 and will have me thinking more potential for move lower than otherwise from 35.66 short. If Daily R1 at 35.51 fails at support then mabye 35.40 next.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 11:44:01 AM

Nymex crude down to a 1.1 loss at 53.475, off a session low of 53.325. Updated daily chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 11:41:53 AM

I'm still watching the TRAN for a clue as to direction, and it's still unable to move above the 200-sma and -ema, but still nearer the top of the day's range than the bottom.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 11:40:21 AM

The 28-day t-bill auction results are out now- I was expecting them at 1PM along with the 5-yr TIPS auction results. The 8B auctioned generated a solid 3.68 bids tendered for each accepted, median rate 2.685% and high rate 2.69%. Indirect bidders took a small 1.36B of the total.

Tab Gilles : 4/26/2005 11:38:34 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 11:34:10 AM

A potential for a double-top exists on the OEX, but the OEX isn't falling far away from that double-top level, so it's difficult to assess how likely that is.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 11:30:54 AM

Got filled on our 11.06 VLTR short at 10.87. Glad to be out of that one, even though it was profitable. Even better. Just was never confortable. Ok, back to our QQQQs short.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 11:26:43 AM

Although I am of course seeing the OEX climb, I am not seeing the OEX break out. It's not breaking out above the top trendline of its broadening formation, although it is climbing that ascending trendline. It has not broken out above the top of the descending regression channel. It can still do all those things, but it just hasn't yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 11:22:38 AM

QQQQ diving to test the previous high at 35.46: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 11:21:59 AM

Stop for QQQQs short Move stop down to breakeven at 35.66. Weekly R1 worked brilliantly. Still managing VLTR.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 11:19:25 AM

Advdec line dropping again after turning positive.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 11:16:51 AM

The TRAN has risen to test its 200-sma and -ema's, with those averages just above the TRAN's current 3467.36 value.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 11:13:08 AM

The OEX tests the upper trendline of the broadening formation, but hasn't yet touched the top resistance of the descending trendline displayed in the chart linked to my 9:17 post.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 11:13:19 AM

Day Trade Short Stop, VLTR...not comfortable being short at 11.06 as never traded this stock before. Will work 10.87 bid to exit. Also move stop down to breakeven.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 11:07:57 AM

Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 4/26/2005 11:07:25 AM

News of IBM $5B buyback is helping markets and tech today. However, I found this more of interest on the tech side. Link

Moving towards a 64-bit processor is the catalyst tech needs to get both hardware and software moving.

INTC... Link

$SOX... Link

SMH.... Link

$GHA Link $GSO Link

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 11:06:43 AM

If the OEX holds this breakout on the five-minute Keltner chart, it sets an upside target of 558.07, but the hold on that breakout level is tenuous . . . and the breakout signal was erased as I type. Back between the 200-sma and 200-ema, it may be possible that there's still some chop needed between the two until the next direction is decided.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 11:06:01 AM

11:00 A.M. Market Watch at Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 11:02:33 AM

Nymex June crude is -1 at 53.575 here, a 1.83% decline today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 11:02:07 AM

QQQQs did trade 35.66 quite a bit and will manage short position as well as VLTR. VLTR still trading rather light.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 11:02:07 AM

Ten year treasuries are weaker still, TNX up to a 3.8 bp gain at 4.289%. Today's candle is a bullish engulfing/key outside reversal so far, and should confirm the long-awaited daily cycle upphase.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 11:00:37 AM

QQQQ has broken above upper 30 and 60 min channel resistance and is at levels that should see a short cycle corrective pullback from here. Confluence support is at 35.46, 7200 tick SMA support at 35.40 below that.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 10:59:28 AM

The OEX pushed above the descending trendline off yesterday's high and has even bested yesterday's high by a bit, but not by enough that we're certain it's avoided an equal high. It's testing the Keltner resistance that stopped it yesterday morning, still within the descending regression channel depicted in my 9:17 post. A breakout of that channel requires a move to 558-560, depending on how you draw the top trendline and what shadows you include or don't include.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 10:54:51 AM

Day Trade Short, QQQQs Go short QQQQs at 35.66 with a stop at 35.87.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 10:53:01 AM

Filled on VLTR short...traded rather volatile and fast the last few minutes. An aggressive play. QQQQs nearing Weekly R1.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 10:50:11 AM

The BIX rises, too, currently at or near its high of the day, springing up from a test of 350.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 10:49:55 AM

Day Trade Short, VLTR Go Short Volterra Semiconductor (VLTR) at 11.06. 1/2 position size. Will add on weakness. Stop at 11.19.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 10:49:34 AM

The RLX rises within its recent consolidation pattern, about to test yesterday's high.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 10:48:56 AM

The TRAN has risen off its LOD, but can't manage to break back above its 200-sma and -ema, at least not yet.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 10:47:39 AM

The OEX did manage a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 554.48 during the just-completed 15-minute close and the OEX rises to test the descending trendline off yesterday's high, with that trendline near 555.25.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 10:47:21 AM

Updated QQQQ chart at this Link , breaking the high range from yesterday and Friday. The 30 and 60 min channels will whipsaw bullishly if price holds the upper end of the range and stays above 35.46 for approx. 10-15 minutes. So far, a higher low and higher high today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 10:42:53 AM

QQQQs at 35.42...Daily R1 at 35.51...probably headed there. Some shorts apparently got caught. This is resistance, but is has been tested quite a bit over the last few days. Will wait until at least 35.50 area. Prob. Weekly R1.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 10:40:26 AM

During the last 15-minute period, the OEX could not manage a close above the Keltner line currently at 554.38. It's trying it again as I type, though, with about five minutes left in this 15-minute period. No clear evidence yet of either direction.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 10:37:19 AM

Session high for QQQQ here at 35.39, filling the opening gap as the 30 and 60 min channel tops edge higher to 35.50. So far, today's low is above yesterday's, which was above Friday's- confirmation of the upside daily cycle turn. 100 tick chart updated at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 10:26:43 AM

The OEX is back above the 200-sma, but doing battle with a Keltner resistance line currently at 554.39, not yet able to sustain values above that resistance--or above the 200-sma, slipping below that as I type. Without a 15-minute close above that Keltner line, the OEX remains vulnerable to another test of Keltner support just below 553.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 10:25:27 AM

Ten year notes have reversed all their prior gains and are into negative territory, with TNX up 2.5 bps now at 4.276%. This is an engulfing daily candle, with yesterday's low exceeded earlier this morning and now its high as well, with the 10-day stochastic printing its first preliminary buy signal from oversold territory. Daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 10:25:05 AM

Another one for bulls to watch is ALGN, Align Technology, as volume surged a few days ago and shares (8.46) testing some good resistance just above. Seems like bulls could take this to 10.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 10:22:54 AM

KOMG breaking out to the upside...24.01...Daily R2 at 23.54 and little too risky buying here..but most likely more upside and good candidate for aggressive bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 10:19:22 AM

Cancel Day Trade, XNLX..27.15. Wanted to enter on weakness, and never had that chance as Daily S1 held and shares back above the pivot. QQQQs also rebounding. Had a feeling entering NOT on weakness would be costly, so glad didn't do that.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 10:18:08 AM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link with a bad tick just now to 35.35 on a bounce from the current session low at 35.18. 30 and 60 min channel support are down to 35.08-.10, below yesterday's low. The 30 and 60 min cycles favor downside from here, but the daily cycle is growing opposed to it. A break above 35.37 would turn the short cycle up and stall the 30 min cycle downphase.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 10:14:56 AM

Airline sector lower by 1.55% and Northwest Airlines (5.44) nearing yearly lows...again.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 10:14:38 AM

Here's a view of the OEX on a 30-minute chart, showing that the OEX appears to have begun a rollover beneath the resistance offered by the upper trendline of the broadening formation after yesterday's test of that formation, as well as below the test of the 200-sma and -ema's short blue horizontal lines: Link But how low will the OEX go? Any conclusion is iffy when prices trade within a broadening formation, and the rollover remains tentative only, with the OEX finding support at the top of the trading range from the 21st and 22nd. If there are further declines, bears should certainly have profit-protecting plans in mind for a test of the 38.2% retracement off the 4/12 high, with that level at just over 552. I don't think I'd be betting long with the advdec line where it is, but be careful with assumptions about the downside, too.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 10:13:22 AM

Remember all the talk over tankers and companies such as TOPT (TOP Tankers)?...16.39 and breaking down again to Daily S2 and may be a put candidate.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 10:06:56 AM

Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 10:03:28 AM

10:00 Market Watch at Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 10:02:58 AM

Session low for YM futures here, QQQ losing 7200 tick SMA support and testing 35.25, the current short cycle channel bottom.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 10:02:54 AM

The OEX heads down to test Keltner support.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 10:02:18 AM

Bonds have sold off on the news, TNX recovering to a .2 bp loss at 4.249%, while gold has pulled back as well. CAD and Euro futures are down to session lows of .8025 and 1.2984 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 10:01:13 AM

OEX 15-minute Keltner support at 552.89-553.27. First resistance at 554.46, with next resistance from 555.72-556.93.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 10:01:12 AM

Headlines:

U.S. MARCH NEW HOME SALES UP 12% TO RECORD 1.43 MILLION

U.S. MARCH NEW HOME SALES BEAT 1.19M EXPECTED

U.S. MARCH NEW HOME INVENTORY DOWN 0.9% TO 433,000

U.S. MARCH NEW HOME INVENTORY 3.6-MONTH SUPPLY

U.S. FEB. NEW HOME SALES REVISED TO 1.27M V. 1.23M

U.S. MARCH NEW HOME SALES PRICE UP 1.3% Y-O-Y TO $212K

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 10:00:43 AM

Consumer Confidence 97.7 vs 98.0 exp.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 9:58:09 AM

OEX 15-minute Keltner evidence is almost as neutral as it's possible for it to be going into the 10:00 numbers. Support had looked slightly firmer than resistance, but now the two look about equal, with maybe still a slight favoring of support.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 9:57:49 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link drifting net sideways on light volume and searching for direction. A break of 35.25-35.35 should resolve the short cycle chop.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 9:55:07 AM

The TRAN turned down from its converging 200-sma and -ema's today, but remains within its consolidation pattern forming over the last several weeks.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 9:53:27 AM

8 minutes to Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales. The Fed has rolled over the expiring 5.25B overnight repo with another overnight repo of 5.25B, for a net wash today.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 9:48:34 AM

The OEX heads down to test Keltner support, having inched below the 200-sma.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 9:48:25 AM

VIX at 14.99....Daily S2 at 14.30, 14.53 for S1, Daily Pivot at 14.93, R1 at 15.20 and R2 at 15.64. Recent move just above the pivot slighly bearish.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 9:43:17 AM

The OEX turns down right where bears would expect it to turn down. For me, it's turning down from a long-term S/R line that's carried forward from the monthly chart and that I've been watching for many months. But will it stay turned down? That's the question today, and one I don't see charts answering.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 9:41:33 AM

QQQQs didn't test the support area near 35.19 and therefore looking to sell weakness instead of current levels (see XLNX). Can the QQQQ's get to Weekly R1 at 35.67? Of course. That would be the first time selling into strength.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 9:40:44 AM

The SOX declines, following through on European tech weakness, but it's not falling far, still within a sort of coiling formation on the bottom of its decline.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 9:39:18 AM

Keltner evidence is mixed on the 15-minute OEX chart. There's some evidence that support is trying to firm between 552.85-553.96, but it's not firm yet. It's still firmer than nearby resistance. Looks as if the OEX is going to need to chop around a little and let these lines converge or else it needs a strong sell or buy program to punch through either support or resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 9:38:31 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link with price flipping back above the 7200 tick SMA. There's a short cycle downphase in progress, and so far the opening gap down is still intact.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 9:37:35 AM

Day Trade Short Entry. Go short Xilinx (XLNX) at 26.61 on a sell stop. Currently at 26.75. Stop of 26.91.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 9:34:32 AM

No pullback for gold, currently up 2.80 at 438.80. HUI and XAU have opened green, +.79% at 190.62 and +.96% at 89.43 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 9:34:28 AM

Advdec line negative.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 9:34:02 AM

The OEX heads back to test the 200-sma again.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 9:31:49 AM

Ten year treasuries are holding light gains, with TNX down 1.2 bps at 4.239% currently. We await the 10AM economic data noted earlier and the results of the Fed's disposition of the 5.25B overnight repo expiring today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 9:27:56 AM

Could be another tough day for Martha and Co. MSO is set to open near 20 (closed 20.26) while important support is below at 19.55 - 19.60.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 9:20:44 AM

Earnings News: As another round of earnings is digested by the markets, the tape is showing Lockheed Martin (LMT) beating forecasts and raised FY05 guidance, while better than expected earnings have also come from the likes of COH, CFC, FPL, MHP, MHS, OMC, OXY, SLB, SO and X. Dow component DuPont (DD) has missed expectations and merely reaffirmed its FY05 outlook, while ROK, SLE, EQR and LXK have also missed forecasts.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 9:20:38 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle downphase has been joined by a rollover on the 60 min cycle oscillators this morning. The 7200 tick SMA is currently at 35.30, with the upper 30 and 60 min channel tops lined up at 35.44. The channel bottoms line up at 35.20, but if price holds below 7200 tick SMA for about 10 minutes past the cash open, those levels will decline. Current confluence support below 35.20 is at 35.10-.13, a key support zone as yesterday. A break below that will stall what appears to be an imminent daily cycle buy signal.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 9:17:26 AM

Another view of the OEX, showing that it's been trading within a descending regression channel since the beginning of March, with the top to be tested again between 558-560. No upside breakout yet. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 9:10:29 AM

QQQQs back down to 35.28 and Daily Pivot just above at 35.33 and Daily S1 at 35.19. It 'feels' like a failure, but still need to make some progress below Daily S1.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2005 9:06:44 AM

Program Trading for Tuesday. HL Camp & Company has computers are set for program buying at $+3.00 and set for program selling at $+.00.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 8:49:23 AM

Yesterday, the OEX broke back above the 200-sma, but consolidated between the 200-sma and -ema. During the consolidation from the middle of March until the middle of April, it was the 200-ema that proved more important. Once that support finally broke, the OEX fell rather easily through the 200-sma, so we should probably consider the 200-ema likely resistance. That's the thought I operated under yesterday, expecting some consolidation if the OEX did manage to pop above the 200-sma. That's what happened.

Now what? Some believe that we have conclusive evidence that the declines are finished, but I don't see it. The declines may or may not be over, but there's no conclusive evidence that it is, in my opinion. This climb so far has just constituted a retest of that broken support as well as a retest of the neckline of the H&S formation the OEX built on top of its climb off last year's low, and the outcome of that test will tell us much about final direction. Link If you look closely at the formation at the bottom of the chart, you can see the broadening formation at the bottom of the decline, although it's easier to discern on a 60-minute chart. Broadening formations are unpredictable: in price patterns within the broadening formation, determining when a breakout has occurred and the direction of the final breakout. I think that we need to see a sustained move above the OEX's 200-ema, currently at 557.24 before we believe that an upside breakout has occurred, and even then, the OEX moves into the right-shoulder area.

Yesterday's closing level, between the 200-sma and up to the 200-ema, is also the level to watch for a potential rollover, down through the broadening formation again. We'll be watching for either a breakout or a rollover. If you think you're seeing a breakout and enter long, be prepared to jump back out of a play if the OEX reverses quickly. If you think there's an imminent rollover and enter a bearish position, be ready to stop out quickly if the OEX reverses direction.

This report was written last night, before a look at this morning's futures showed a decline and a possibility that the OEX would open below the 200-sma again this morning. One problem with considering a bearish entry right at the open, however, is the consumer confidence number coming later. Unless the evidence is all-out irrefutable that a play is a good idea, I don't like to enter new plays just ahead of an important economic number, and so pre-open, wouldn't feel comfortable suggesting that for readers, either. May be a mistake, but we'll see.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 8:31:15 AM

An interesting divergence this morning, with the US Dollar Index holding the upper end of yesterday's range Link while June gold futures hold a session high above yesterday's top, currently +3 at 439. This is generally not a divergence that lasts for long. On the daily chart of gold, we see a daily cycle upphase just approaching overbought territory, but it launched from a higher low at the beginning of April. Key support for this cycle is at 432-33. For the moment, it's a chart that's going higher, even as the 10-day stochastic reaches level that mandate caution for bulls. Daily chart of June gold at this Link and daily chart of USD Index at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/26/2005 7:33:49 AM

Equities are down and bonds are up, ES trading 1159.75, NQ 1434.5, YM 10211 and QQQQ -.135 at 35.24. Gold is up 2 to 438, silver +.015 to a session high of 7.28, ten year bonds +5/32 to 111 3/16, and crude oil is down .575 to 54.

We await the 10AM releases of Consumer Confidence for April, est. 98, and New Home Sales for March, est. 1.19M.

Linda Piazza : 4/26/2005 7:23:08 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei fell after several economic releases proved troubling, but other Asian markets were mixed. European markets decline, hurt by tech weakness after earnings reports from Infineon and ASM. Our futures dropped, the drop accelerating after the European open. As of 6:10 EST, gold was up $1.40, and crude, down $0.74 to $53.83. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

March's Japanese nationwide CPI fell 0.2% year over year with the core CPI falling 0.3% year over year. Both declines were less than February's and within expectations for March, but contributed to a picture of deflation. Numbers for Tokyo were slightly weaker than expected. Household spending fell in March, too, by 1.1% from February's number, and unemployment fell 4.5%, but amid a loss of 270,000 jobs. Household disposable incomes did increase, one report noted. The Bank of Japan's April figures for major banks' lending tendency survey showed deterioration in the economy, with companies' funds demand and banks' lending stance both declining.

The Nikkei fell in early trading, not drifting too far away from the flat-line level at first, with some also attributing the trading pattern to hesitancy ahead of earnings to be released this week from Honda, Advantest and Sony, among others. The Nikkei drifted lower in the afternoon, closing down 37.94 points or 0.34%, at 11,035.83. One stock that gained was AU Optronics Corp., with the liquid crystal display panel maker gaining after reporting better-than-expecting results, with its loss trimmed from the loss in the previous quarter.

Other Asian markets were mixed, although most of the ones covered in this report gained. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.82%, but South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.18%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.57%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.80%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.64%.

European markets turn lower amid tech weakness. The U.K.'s CBI Industrial Trends Survey for April showed the order balance falling to a -24 from a -13, with that result much worse than expected. Export order balance, output expectations and expected volume of orders all fell, but the quarterly business situation balance and trend in likely employment rose. The ECB's latest report mentioned domestic and international uncertainties, but thought growth would still recover at a gradual pace. The ECB has been worried and watchful for short-term inflation developments, but sees no signs that inflation pressures are building. The report suggests that future rate hikes will be pushed out.

European oil majors turn higher, buoyed by earnings results from BP, but techs were hurt after earnings results from Infineon and ASM. Infineon reported a loss of 142 million euros against an expectation of a 31 million euro loss, with the company expecting continued pricing pressures for some of its products in the third quarter. ASM International reported a loss and dropping sales, and warned over sales and earnings. The company noted that customers were delaying orders.

Other companies reporting earnings included Belgian brewer InBev SA, leisure company Whitbread, Merck, German chemicals group Lanxess AG, and sports brand Puma. All those declined in early trading after their reports.

As of 7:01 EST, the FTSE 100 had dropped 26.20 points or 0.54%, to 4,838.70. The CAC 40 had fallen 19.06 points or 0.48%, to 3,974.01. The DAX had fallen 27.71 points or 0.65%, to 4,219.25.

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