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Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 12:01:25 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.35 and set for selling at $-0.29.

OI Technical Staff : 4/27/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Marc Eckelberry : 4/27/2005 5:03:30 PM

Tab, no disagreement on the long term outlook for oil. It is very bulllish. I'm just looking at the next three months, where some froth will be taken out, especially with the slowing economies and higher output (includes better refinery capacity coming up). Better buys ahead, I think, then full on bullish for the winter.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 4:48:28 PM

Pivot Matrix for Tomorrow at Link

Tab Gilles : 4/27/2005 4:47:56 PM

True Marc...I'm just looking at the daily change on both. As for oil, as I stated earlier, I agree with Jim Brown's longterm outlook. Just look at VLO buying PCO, and today's speech by President Bush on refineries. Demand is there and will grow globally in the coming years. There are those who have called for $100 oil, I believe that will likely happen, maybe not as soon as some have called for, but within 5 years. If we look back to 1998 oil was at nearly at $10 a barrel, it has gone up 5 times that, almost 6 times in those 7 years!

Marc Eckelberry : 4/27/2005 4:35:07 PM

Tab, I have to point out that the DOW managed a 120 point turnaround, so the closing number does not tell all. I'm long from 10085. As far as oil, now trading below 38% again (dec/mar)and headed for sub 50 any day, 49.62 the 50% and below that 47.51. Just my take, but I think energy is being sold on strength every day. Fear of MSFT holding us back, but that is a good sign.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 4:23:38 PM

Remember earnings after the close from AKAM, BIIB, CTX, CHIR, DRIV, ISSX, ISIL, JDSU, MCHP, OPWV, PHM, RSAS, SANM, SEBL, SWKS, SOHU, SBUX, and VARI, among many others. Tomorrow morning, watch for LEND, AGY, BZH, BDK, BOBJ, CCMP, CMCSA, EL, IDNX, ICST, KSWS, KLIC, MVL, MLNM, PTEN, PG, SIRI, and WEN

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 4:17:50 PM

Today's Trades: Sold 1/2 position QLGC at 34.36 and was stopped out at 34.72. Sold 1/2 position AMZN at 31.11 and stopped out at 31.40.

Tab Gilles : 4/27/2005 4:13:52 PM

Oil down over $2 and all we got was +47 on the Dow and +3 on the NASDAQ??? Granted the Durable Goods number was lousy. But whats ruling the market currently?....Oil....or rates??

I track Murphy Oil and have used the 100/150-ema as entry levels in the past. I annotated this weekly chart last week and have a trend line showing that $85 may need to be tested. Oil has been range bound lately $50/$55 range. If this "soft patch" is temporary and things do pick up, it then may push oil prices backup. I'd say buy oil stocks on weakness. I share the same longterm outlook on oil as does Jim. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 4:12:20 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 4:09:59 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 4:08:13 PM

Closing Market Watch found at Link

Tab Gilles : 4/27/2005 4:04:24 PM

EVV Retested low. Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 4:01:49 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link , still walking along the neckline.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 3:54:04 PM

Is this the OEX push up toward the 200-sma? Gotta get going, if so.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 3:53:36 PM

Marc, try clicking "File:restore settings" and select Tuesday to restore the settings as of yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 3:46:51 PM

The TRAN's Keltner outlook is weakner than the OEX's, with the TRAN below the Keltner mid-channel level.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 3:44:24 PM

QQQQ's already exceeded yesterday's volume, a fact which I take a bullish. The lower high and lower low are not, however. The daily cycle has held its buy signal, however, with preliminary crosses on both the stochastic and Macd- while today's low frightened the bulls, the bottom came at a higher low from last week's low, as it did on the TNX. The key will be whether today's range holds tomorrow for the 30 min cycle downphase, which is due in the morning. If it holds above today's low, the daily cycle bulls should be in business. A failure, however, will target the 34.60 level as next support.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 3:41:18 PM

20 minutes until the close and the Dow falls below its daily pivot of 10189 and the QQQQs under Weekly Pivot of 35.13. Both slighly bearish into the close but downside most likely is only 34.95 (35.06 currently) and 10160 for Dow as bulls book profits and take their marginal victory today.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 3:37:24 PM

Next Keltner support at 551.58 for the OEX.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 3:33:00 PM

Careful, OEX bulls. OEX support thins below that mid-channel level, and the OEX is threatening to fall beneath it. There's a chance--a rather good one--that the OEX is just settling into a sideways trading pattern with the Keltner channels lining up in an equilibrium position prior to another breakout or breakdown. If so, mid-channel support or resistance will mean nothing.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 3:27:37 PM

The OEX just can't sustain values above its 200-sma today. Once again, as I've mentioned several times in similar setups, I imagine that there will be last-minute push to bring the OEX above that 200-sma, but I wonder how all those who might have bought the last couple of end-of-day pushes above the 200-sma feel about taking part this time?

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 3:23:25 PM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link , back to the sloping neckline of the hunchback head and shoulders. The 30 and 60 min cycle channels are unchanged, drifting sideways.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 3:19:31 PM

Ten year treasuries closed in the green ahead of tomorrow's GDP data, with TNX down 3 bps at 4.237%. Nonetheless, the test of 4.2% held, with the bottom end of today's candle blowing off from the lows. This occurred above last week's low, which is another confirmation of the likely daily cycle bottom printed last week. Updated daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 3:18:41 PM

Dow also in-between Daily R1 and Daily Pivot during last few hours. Could be accumulation for another move higher, but might make sense buying strength on Thursday.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 3:17:21 PM

AMZN Day Trade Exit, 31.40. Currently at 31.48, shorts apparently were not convinced of more downside during last hour as shares traded at top of range. QQQQs, on the other hand, still at pesky Weekly Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 3:11:28 PM

For the last few hours the VIX has stayed between the daily pivot and Daily S1 (14.84 to 14.54) and is currently at 14.76 and could have some equity bulls taking profits if the daily pivot is taken out. Not a reason to initiate a short position, but just be cautious on longs. AMZN still holding up at 31.26 and near session high. QQQQs a few cents under Weekly Pivot. Interesting divergence.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 3:08:51 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link with fib retracement based on Monday's range.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 3:06:10 PM

Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 3:04:46 PM

The mid-channel Keltner support does hold and the OEX rises toward the day's high again. Those in bullish positions will want to be aware of potential resistance at that previous day's high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 3:03:34 PM

3:00 P.M. Market Watch at Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 2:58:34 PM

If you missed it: General Electric (GE 36.37 +0.19) Chairman and CEO Jeffrey has said that the U.S. economy is "still pretty strong" and that orders at GE are expected to meet forecasts for 2005...

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 2:58:32 PM

QQQQ has bounced to test its former left shoulder top on the small potential head and shoulders pattern discussed earlier. A break above 35.20 will violate the symmetry of the pattern if it occurs. The short cycle oscillators are turning up on the break above 7200 tick SMA resistance, but have not yet kicked off the next upphase. Another few minutes at current levels would change that. Currently, 30 and 60 min channel resistance overlap at 35.30 QQQQ to the upside, 34.95 to the down.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 2:54:28 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 2:47:34 PM

Sideways trading since the OEX broke out of the rising regression channel it had been forming today. That's always suspicious and those hoping for a rollover would much rather see a deep decline. However, the OEX only tentatively holds to the mid-channel Keltner support, and perhaps is slipping below it as I type. Sometimes I'm deeply suspicious of a rally off support and think it likely to fail at any moment, but I'm just not certain about this one. Don't get me wrong: I still don't think we've seen an upside breakout out of the OEX's descending regression channel or out of the broadening formation, so I think everything is suspect and subject to a reversal at any time. However, I'm talking about my feelings about movement over the very short term, as into the end of the day. So, although I'm suspicious of all movements within that broadening formation, I'm not "deeply" suspicious of this one now. Just watching for signs of a rollover to warn those who might be in a bullish play, or watching for signs of another push higher.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 2:47:03 PM

We all know hindsight is 20/20, and the QQQQs rolled at the daily pivot while AMZN is roughly 0.07 higher from entry despite gapping lower and QQQQs under pressure. It seemed Qs were relatively stronger, but wasn't the case. Volatility should pick up in last hour.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 2:44:56 PM

Could be an intraday head and shoulders forming here as the short cycle downphase rolls the 30 min cycle over within the stalling 60 min upphase. If so, then a break below the sloping neckline would have an implied target as low as 34.85 QQQQ. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 2:32:29 PM

Sector Watch: Insurance +1.6%, Banking +1%, Housing +1%, Utility +0.7%, REITs +0.6%, Paper +2.6%, Healthcare +2.3% and Tobacco +1%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 2:29:33 PM

QQQQs at Weekly Pivot and AMZN at short entry of 31.11...just ticked up to 31.13. The market may be waiting for Bush to finish or until the bond market closes.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 2:30:48 PM

New session low for June crude oil at 51.60, down 2.60 or 4.8%. 30 min delayed daily chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 2:26:26 PM

Mid-channel OEX Keltner support holds. So far. Next resistance at 554.33 and at 555.83 above that.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 2:24:18 PM

QQQQ is trading sideways between 35.04 and 35.12, below 7200 tick SMA resistance. This has stalled the 30 min cycle upphase, and the current channel bottoms lines up with the 60 min channel at 34.97 currently. A move below that level will kick off new downphases in those cycles, while bulls need to get back into the rising channel above 35.15.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 2:14:21 PM

Session low for Nymex crude, -2.25 or 4.15% at 51.95. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 2:13:04 PM

The OEX has tumbled out of its rising regression channel--bear flag?--and hit a new five-minute low. Expect possible support near 552, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 2:10:02 PM

QQQQ ticking below 720 tick SMA support here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 2:04:16 PM

Internals at Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 2:02:00 PM

2:00 Market Watch at Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 1:59:16 PM

Little change in volume breadth, which is holding just above neutral, with 1.1 advancing NYSE shares for each declining, 1.22 advancing for each declining on the Naz.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 1:54:38 PM

The OEX begins another bounce from the support of today's rising regression channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 1:52:46 PM

Nymex crude is up to a 1.55 loss at 52.65, while ten year bonds have strengthened again, driving the TNX back down to a 3.6 bp loss at 4.231%. The metals have recovered part of their losses, June gold -4.90 at 434.20 and HUI -2.9% at 179.42, XAU -3.91% at 83.65.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 1:48:22 PM

The OEX pulls back off the 200-sma, back to test the mid-channel Keltner resistance near 552.75. The OEX has been trading higher in a new ascending regression channel off the day's low, and it will be testing the support of that channel at about the same point. The tight pattern of higher highs and higher lows looks like a bear flag because of its very tightness after a steep decline, among other reasons, but in the strictest sense, it retraced far too much of the last plummet to be considered a bear flag.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 1:47:29 PM

QQQQ back to testing the 7200 tick SMA Link following a large sell program just off the high. Below this level, the 30 min channel support at 35.00 is in play as the overbought short cycle oscillators begin to tick down.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 1:37:27 PM

Day Trade AMZN triggered. Short at 31.11 with a stop at 31.40 based on the gap lower, QQQQs finally into resistance and a break of the recent intraday support.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 1:30:31 PM

Day Trade Short, AMZN Go short 1/2 position AMZN at 31.09 with a stop at 31.40.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 1:29:57 PM

Bulls really need to have the OEX hold at or above its 200-sma. While I was worried for bears as the OEX tested that midline level and Friday's low, I'm no more convinced of big upside than I was of big downside. The OEX remains within a consolidation pattern, not yet breaking out, so we can't assume anything yet. Bulls have to have memories of what happened after Thursday's rise up to the 200-sma and after Monday's.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 1:26:05 PM

QQQQs still in resistance zone from Daily to Weekly Pivot. From Daily S1 at 34.83 to current levels, it was risky going short but now looking at AMZN as possible short on weakness...currently at 31.17.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 1:25:37 PM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link . Current sesssion high is 35.25, 7200 tick SMA support up to 35.10.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 1:25:34 PM

Now that former mid-channel resistance should now be support, with that near 552.40-552.70.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 1:22:32 PM

The OEX now tests the 200-sma again. Another level bears might be eyeing, watching for a potential rollover. Remember that the OEX is still within the descending regression channel in which it's traded since March, still within a broadening formation, although that formation may be losing its validity as the OEX keeps testing the top.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 1:18:05 PM

The top of the OEX's descending regression channel, the one in which it's traded since March, is now at about 557-558, but first the OEX would have to get through the 555.60-ish historical S/R and the Keltner chart suggests resistance near 555.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 1:13:29 PM

Ten year bonds continue to weaken, TNX up to 4.245% here, a 2.2 bp loss. Crude oil is down 1.75 at 52.45, a 3.23% loss this session.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 1:12:40 PM

And the OEX breaks through the mid-channel Keltner resistance. Bears were forewarned today to expect a bounce from the midline of the OEX's descending regression channel and that's what happened!

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 1:10:43 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link testing the session high at 35.18. 35.20 is upper channel resistance and overhead confluence.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 1:07:34 PM

Ongoing test of Keltner mid-channel resistance on the OEX.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 1:07:28 PM

Ongoing test of Keltner mid-channel resistance on the OEX.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 1:04:59 PM

Internals found at Link

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 1:03:26 PM

Today, the TRAN confirmed a continuation-form H&S on its 60-minute chart, and promptly fell toward its 3325 downside target, but not quite to that target. The TRAN found support at the 3350 level. It's now risen to retest 3400, at 3396.93 as I type. It may still have some downside to go.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 1:03:23 PM

1:00 P.M. Market Watch at Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 1:02:52 PM

The 24B auction of 2-year t-notes generated a weak 1.77 bids submitted for each accepted, with a high yield of 3.65%. Foreign central banks took 5.873B of the 24B total.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 12:58:19 PM

The OEX is finding support on the 50% retracement of the decline from yesterday's high to today's low, and the support at this level is mildly bullish. The OEX's mid-channel Keltner resistance continues to hold (15-minute chart), however, and that's mildly bearish.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 12:52:56 PM

Ten year notes are fading off their highs, with TNX up to a 3.4 bp loss at 4.233%. The Treasury's 24B 2-year note auction results will be released shortly past 1PM.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 12:51:31 PM

The OEX still holds beneath the mid-channel Keltner resistance.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 12:46:12 PM

OEX mid-channel Keltner resistance still holds, with that resistance up to 552.80 on 15-minute charts. The OEX keeps testing it, though. The Dow's 15-minute Keltner resistance, up to 10,185 still holds, too. Countering that is the look of the pullback on the advdec line, which looks like a bull flag pullback.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 12:40:48 PM

QQQQ 4-day 100 tick chart update at this Link with price holding above 7200 tick SMA support, up to 35.03. While the longer intraday cycles remain bullish above this SMA, the bounce off the morning lows is much more hesitant and choppy than the decline yesterday which preceded it. That corrective action sets up this bounce as a potential bear flag, support for which is at or just below the 7200 tick SMA currently.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 12:31:35 PM

Sectors moving: Tobacco +0.2% and Paper +0.1% (WEY +1.7%). Steel -4.8%, Gold -3.1%, Airline -2.7%, Chemical -1.9%, Cyclical -1.7%, Oil Service -1.6%, Transportation -1.5%, Disk Drive -1.3%, Health Provider -1.2%.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 12:25:09 PM

Mid-channel Keltner resistance holds so far, but the advdec line continues to improve, throwing some doubt on the continued holding of that resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 12:19:25 PM

Note that the CBOE total put to call ratio has been printing above 1.0 all day, opening at a high of 1.44. I seldom watch this secondary indicator, but it has been signalling caution for bears today. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 12:16:34 PM

Session lows for gold and silver here, -5.70 at 433.40 and -.15 at 7.098 respectively. HUI is down 3.05% at 179.14, XAU -4.16% at 83.43.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 12:12:03 PM

Nymex June crude is down 1.90 at 52.30 here, off a session low of 52.15.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 12:10:46 PM

The Nasdaq TRIN has plunged to .38 (according to my PcQuote feed) while the NYSE TRIN is holding up at 1.09. Volume breadth is mixed and has just gone neutral, with 1.07 declining NYSE shares for each advancing, 1.09 advancing Naz shares for each declining.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 12:08:15 PM

Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 12:06:13 PM

12:00 P.M. Market Watch at Link

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 12:05:36 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 12:03:47 PM

QQQQs hit retracement target, Weekly Pivot. Daily Pivot still at 35.25 and this should be a resistance zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 12:03:31 PM

QQQQ's printing a session high at 35.12 here, testing 35.10-.13 confluence. The 60 min channel has turned up to join the 30 min cycle upphase, with 30 min channel resistance just above at 35.14. Those channel tops will continue to climb so long as price stays above the 7200 tick SMA at 34.99 currently.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 12:03:15 PM

No sign of an OEX rollover at Keltner resistance/Fib levels just yet.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 12:01:54 PM

The OEX also tests three-minute Keltner resistance, trying to break above resistance on that chart, too. There's currently a test of the day's high, with the 50% retracement of yeesterday's range at 552.05, just above the OEX's current level . . . moving toward it as I type. A sustained move above the 50% retracement questions the "bear flag" theory, but the 15-minute Keltner chart shows resistance up to 552.64.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/27/2005 11:54:48 AM

INTC June 22.5 calls trading now at 1.35. We bought at 1.45, but since we took a nickel on the May calls, we are only down a nickel on the play. INTC needs to get back above 23.60 this week.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 11:50:24 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link testing rising 7200 tick SMA from above for the second time this AM.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 11:49:21 AM

The OEX tests important Keltner resistance, from 551.68-552.65, with that resistance looking a bit softer than it did earlier, but still strong enough to turn the OEX lower again, at least for a retests of support. That support is nearest at 550.19 but trying to firm at 548.64-549.00. The OEX is currently testing resistance from which bears might hope for a rollover. It's also testing a 38.2% retracement of the decline from Tuesday's high, with that near 551 and the 50%, with that just over 552. Still bear flag territory here, and those who like to hit a Fib retracement of a decline with an automatic new entry will be eyeing the current level.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 11:39:30 AM

Still targeting 35.13 area as possible retracement, as QQQQs holding above 35 as the Dow goes positive. The 'neutral to slightly bullish' reading is still intact following Daily S1 holding. Tricky this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 11:30:39 AM

The Fed's coupon pass was 700M, bringing today's net add to 1.45B.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 11:28:11 AM

The OEX has moved above the Keltner line currently at 549.76, and looks strong enough to maintain that move into this 15-minute period's close. To say the least. Next strong Keltner resistance is at 552.40-552.70. If the OEX holds this move up through the entire 15-minute period, soon to be closed, the formation doesn't look flag-like any longer.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 11:26:16 AM

New session high for QQQQ at 35.02, now testing the 60 min channel top. 30 min channel resistance is up to 35.08. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 11:22:43 AM

June gold is down 5.10 to 434 here, off a session low of 433.40, a new low for this week. Key support for the toppy daily cycle upphase is at 432-433. 6 month daily chart of June gold at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 11:21:31 AM

QQQQ holds 7200 tick SMA support on the pullback off the session high. Abreak above the previous bounce high at 34.96 will target 35, confirming the upturn in the 30 min cycle. So far, the opposition between the 30 and 60 min cycles at the turn is producing net chop.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 11:17:06 AM

Missed short in NLVS as it fell over 0.20 and now watching Abgenix (ABGX) at 6.53 for possible short.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 11:14:55 AM

I've dialed down to a three-minute OEX chart to try to determine if the OEX is breaking through bear flag support or perhaps just forming a wider flag formation. The evidence is unclear, as support is trying to firm underneath the OEX's current position, but resistance is trying to firm, too, back near 549.50-549.75, if not a bit lower.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 11:11:25 AM

QQQQs retracing 50% of days range and that isn't bearish until it fails to hold. 50% is right here at 34.86.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 11:10:36 AM

Volume breadth is weak today, with 2.88 declining NYSE shares for each advancing, 3.28 declining Naz shares for each advancing. The TRIN and TRINQ have both moved higher at 1.34 and 1.23, even as price has advanced off the lows- looks like they've been selling into the bounce.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 11:06:44 AM

Here's an update of the OEX chart I'd shown earlier (original annotations, though), showing that the OEX did bounce from the midline of the descending regression channel: Link I had suggested earlier that bears might be prepared for a bounce from this area, and now bears need to see a rollover.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 11:03:09 AM

Internals at Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 11:02:55 AM

11:00 Market Watch at Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 11:01:32 AM

The Fed has announced a coupon pass, a permament addition to liquidity, what I believe to be only the second of the year following last week's 1.2B add. Currently, the Fed has added a net 750M for the day- when the quantum of this new operation is announced, I will post it.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 10:58:23 AM

Overall markets finding a slight bid, but watching NVIDIA (NVDA) as a possible short...currently at 21.47. Alert set.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 10:56:30 AM

The Dow also so far holds beneath Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart, with that first resistance from 10,116.70-10,123.45. Next resistance above that is currently at 10,156.97 and then from 10,182.56-10,187.63.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 10:54:56 AM

QQQQ's cranked out 47M shares so far, just under half of yesterday's volume. The surge off the oil data stopped at a high of 35, bouncing off the top 30 min keltner channel. That channel has turned up along with the short cycles, however, and provided the price holds above the 7200 tick SMA at 34.84, a new upphase should continue to develop. There's often a sideways chop period of a few hours as the slower 60 min cycle channel makes the turn. If so, volume should begin to fall off and the action should slow from here.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 10:47:40 AM

Watching for a flag or other pattern to form as the OEX climbs. Fifteen-minute Keltner resistance is still near 549.47-549.75, with next resistance above that at 551.23 and then stronger near 552.70.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 10:44:47 AM

I'm back. They're broadcasting that it was an unscheduled test.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 10:42:10 AM

Northwest Airlines (NWAC) soon to be a penny stock...5.12 currently but did trade 4.99 and under $5 is 'penny' category.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 11:10:56 AM

Keltner resistance holding on the OEX.

Tornado al-rts going off here, so I'm taking shelter.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 10:39:49 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 10:36:34 AM

If QQQQs get back to 35.13 area, then will consider another short play with again only 1/2 position size and limited risk. Short term sentiment appears to be neutral to possibly slightly bullish.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 10:35:06 AM

Nymex crude is down 1.20 at 53 here, off a low of 52.90. TNX is up to a 4.6 bp loss at 4.221%.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 10:34:02 AM

Strong move up in the advdec line. The OEX moves up to test Keltner resistance. First resistance is at 549.87. That resistance had looked relatively firm, but if the rise is strong enough, it can pierce that resistance. It's being tested now.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 10:33:36 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link , above 7200 tick SMA resistance for the first time today. 30 min channel resistance is at 34.98, above which 35.10-.13 is key confluence resistance. The short cycle has already kicked off its overdue upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 10:32:33 AM

QLGC stop of 34.73 triggered. QQQQs bounced at Daily S1 and shorts appeared to get nervous. QLGC currently at 34.83.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 10:32:06 AM

Gasoline inventories -300K vs. -1M exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 10:31:42 AM

Crude inventories +5.5M barrels vs. +650K exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 10:31:15 AM

QQQQ testing declining 7200 tick resistance here.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 10:30:32 AM

June crude down to a session low of 53.45 here- waiting for the numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 10:24:14 AM

QQQQs holding Daily S1 barely while Dow holds Daily S2. Not getting the follow-through selling despite VIX up 5.49% and Russell down more than 1%.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 10:22:41 AM

June crude oil is down .25 at 53.95 with 9 minutes to go until the weekly inventory data. 3-day 30 tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 10:17:49 AM

Here's what the Dow's 15-minute Keltner chart suggests: Of course, the Dow is trying to steady at Friday's low. That's obvious. The Dow has created a breakdown signal with a downside target near 10,036. Keltner resistance is near 10,100, but firming up at 10,124-10,130.00. Those hoping for more downside want to see continued 15-minute closes below that level, but resistance is actually stronger from 10,161-10,190.00.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 10:15:30 AM

OEX Keltner resistance near 550 is firming up.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 10:13:02 AM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart shows resistance just above at 548.81, but somewhat stronger from 549.94-550.58, and bears hoping for more downside would like to see continued 15-minute closes beneath that second named resistance zone. Stronger resistance is from 552.35-553.17, with that looking strong enough to stop advances as it's currently aligned. It might or might not be aligned similarly after the OEX rises.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 10:12:43 AM

The 30 min cycle oscillators are now in oversold territory, with 30 min channel support down to 34.64. The 60 min cycle continues to point lower, but with the short and 30 min cycles now oversold, it's looking like last week's lows have a good chance to hold. A break above 34.90, the 7200 tick SMA, will flatten the 30 min channel, which should begin to show upticks after approx. 15 minutes, confirmed with a break above the 35.10-.13 confluence.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 10:08:23 AM

Internals at Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 10:05:35 AM

10:00 Market Watch at Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 10:05:14 AM

Ten year notes broke to new highs on the last plunge in equities, TNX now down to 4.207%, -6 bps here and coming in for a test of last week's lows. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 10:03:32 AM

The OEX is slipping a bit lower, just about to hit the midline of the descending regression channel in which it's been trading since the beginning of March. It's getting closer to Friday's intraday low, too. There should be a bounce somewhere through here, but it hasn't happened yet.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 10:01:25 AM

The reason QLGC was picked over others was that this stock wasn't gapping well below Daily S2s and therefore risk could be determined a little better.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 10:00:02 AM

Day Trade Short Entry, QLGC Short now at 34.36 with a stop at a revised 34.73. QQQQs under Daily S1 and this is an aggressive trade. 1/2 position only.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 9:59:16 AM

So far, the OEX is just barely steadying, not yet able to sustain a climb.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 9:57:04 AM

QQQQ trading both sides of Friday's low on high volume, over 21M shares traded so far. This is a key battlezone between bulls and bears. Currently, the TRINQ is just above neutral at 1.1. 30 min channel support is down to 34.65, and the 7200 tick SMA is down to 34.95. Above that level, the 30 min downphase should stall. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 9:53:14 AM

VIX at 15.71...Daily S2 at 14.04, S1 14.53, Daily Pivot at 14.84, R1 at 15.33 and Daily R2 15.64.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 9:52:43 AM

OEX bears would prefer to see the OEX climb in a tight back-and-forth pattern indicative of measured distribution, finding resistance at the Keltner line currently at 550.14 or at least 551.27.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 9:52:40 AM

The Fed's open market desk has announced a 6B overnight repo to replace the 5.25B expiring, for a net add of 750M today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 9:50:38 AM

Day Trade Short, QLGC Go short QLogic at 34.37 1/2 position. Currently at 34.55 and in-between Daily S1 and Weekly S1. Stop at 34.71.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 9:49:24 AM

The OEX tries to steady ahead of the midline of its descending regression channel and Friday's low. The 15-minute Keltner chart shows resistance at 549.39, 550.20 and 551.17, with stronger resistance near 553.00.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 9:46:05 AM

With QQQQs trading around Daily S1, a new low in shares of QLGC could be a good shorting opportunity. 32.29 currently (-3.32%) but actually holding up in last few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 9:43:01 AM

The OEX approaches the midline of this descending regression channel as well as Friday's low, natural places for a potential bounce back to test busted support: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 9:40:20 AM

QQQQ testing Friday's low here. 30 min channel support is down to 34.70.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 9:38:11 AM

Friday's OEX low was 546.88, so bears should expect possible support at that level, as well as near the midline of the month's long descending regression channel, at about 547.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 9:36:52 AM

Despite the sharp drop in the US Dollar Index Link , gold is holding in negative territory, with the June e-mini contract down 1.90 at 437.20 off a high of 438.30. HUI and XAU are both negative, down 1.48% at 182.03 and -2.14% at 85.2 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 9:35:46 AM

Even shares like Newmont Mining (NEM) under support and will most likely not rebound today. Earnings miss.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 9:34:57 AM

Here's how the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart is set up now: If the OEX closes this 15-minute period below a Keltner line currently at 550.51, it will have set a downside target of 545.55, but support should be expected at last Friday's low, too. Perhaps that support will send the OEX up to retest resistance? If so, the Keltner's suggest resistance from 550.24-550.51 and then again at 552.04, with bears wanting to see 15-minute closes beneath that level.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 9:33:30 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link with price bouncing from a low of 34.83. The 30 min cycle remains bearish below the 7200 tick SMA, currently down to 35.05.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 9:33:02 AM

GRMN, FFIV, SIRI, GILD, and AMZN all under pressure.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 9:31:12 AM

The OEX gaps below the breakdown level on the 15-minute Keltner chart. Without a quick bounce this 15-minute period, it's set a downside targt of 545.62. Be careful, though, because of early morning volatility.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 9:31:01 AM

A lot of alerts going off...all to the downside as the QQQQs trade Daily S1. Should be a key area at 34.83 for morning sentiment.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 9:14:02 AM

Bonds continue to climb since the Durable Goods report, TNX now down 4.8 bps at 4.219%. The decline has broken this week's low and causing the 10-day stochastic to stutter following yesterday's preliminary buy signal. A move to 4.2% would retest the low- similar to the 34.60 QQQQ level discussed earlier. Daily TNX chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 9:12:42 AM

Stocks moving this morning: MPAC +21%, ITRI +13% (also JP Morgan upgrade), NVTL +7.6%, LCAV +7.1%, NTES +4.3%, XMSR +3.4%, ATML +4.8%, WBSN +3.3% (also Wm Blair upgrade), ESI +3.3%, GLW +2.9%, BHI +2.6%, ESRX +2.5%, WLP +2.2, WLS +10% (CEO proposes buyout), AX +2.6% (announces new market making program), CSCD +12% (JP Morgan upgrade), USEG +3.4%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 9:08:48 AM

The QQQQs closed under Weekly Pivot and target now is Weekly S1 at 34.55 as long as Weekly Pivot holds as resistance. 34.83 is Daily S1 and could also be short term support. Trades 34.88.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2005 9:06:11 AM

Program Trading For Wednesday: HL Camp & Company has their computers are set for program buying at $+3.12 and program selling at $+.10

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 8:55:14 AM

This report was prepared last night, ahead of the just-released economic numbers, but the chart evidence remains applicable.

Tuesday, the OEX rolled down beneath the top trendline of its broadening formation and the top of the descending regression channel in which it's traded since early March. Link Based on this chart, the OEX looks vulnerable to the midline support, currently 547.40.

Hold on, though. Remember that the OEX is turning down through a broadening formation and trading can be choppy and unpredictable within those formations. The OEX ended the day yesterday sitting on possible Keltner support. Should that support fail, such a failure would set a potential downside target of about 545.70. That means that a test of that midline support near 547.40 is certainly possible, but that breakdown hasn't occurred and that downside target hasn't been set by Keltner charts. Not yet, anyway. There's a possibility of a bounce attempt from this potential Keltner support.

If so, that bounce is going to hit Keltner resistance that looks strong near 552.70-554.41. If there is a bounce, that might be a good place to watch for another rollover. If the OEX gaps lower, producing a first 15-minute close beneath that Keltner line currently at 550.77, that new downside target will be set.

A warning: be careful if the OEX gaps too far about considering a new bearish entry, as any target--downside or upside--might not be met inside that broadening formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 8:43:12 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles continue to point lower, and neither has yet to reach oversold territory. The current channel bottoms are at 34.90, and the question will be whether this weakness lasts through the cash open. I believe it will, based on the orientation of these longer intraday cycles. The oversold short cycle would provide the fuel for a bounce.

In Monday's Market Wrap, I discussed the bottoming process in the longer daily cycle, and speculated that we could see a retest of last week's lows this week. Such is normal bottoming behaviour for a longer cycle, and bulls can tolerate a retest of the lows provided that they do not break by much or for long. To put some perspective on yesterday's decline, the daily cycle bottom currently appears to be at 34.60. If that level fails, however, then this week's bounce will prove to have been a bull trap, and a downside trending move would begin in the daily timeframe.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 8:32:18 AM

Equities are down on the news, QQQ -.10 to 34.95 here, ten year notes back to positive territory with TNX down 2.1 bps at 4.246%. Gold and silver are still in the red, as are euro futures with CAD futrues holding at unchanged.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 8:30:56 AM

Headlines:

U.S. MARCH DURABLE GOODS ORDERS BIGGEST DROP IN 2.5 YRS

U.S. MARCH DURABLE GOODS SHIPMENTS DOWN 0.2%

U.S. MARCH CORE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS DOWN 4.7%

U.S. MARCH DURABLE GOODS INVENTORIES UP 0.4%

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS BELOW EXPECTACTIONS OF UP 0.3%

U.S. MARCH DURABLE GOODS ORDERS DOWN 2.8%

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 8:29:18 AM

Bonds have opened weak ahead of the Durable Goods data in one minute, with ten year treasury yields (TNX) currently up 1.8 bps at 4.285%.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 7:44:25 AM

We await the 8:30 release of Durable Orders for March, est. .3%.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/27/2005 7:42:14 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1151.75, NQ 1424, YM 10143 and QQQQ -.07 to 34.98. Gold is down 3.30 to 435.80, silver -.028 to 7.22, ten year notes -1/8 to 110 7/8, and crude oil is up .025 to 54.225.

Linda Piazza : 4/27/2005 7:21:23 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei dropped modestly Wednesday, but barely clung to the 11,000 level. Most other Asian markets dropped, as do most European markets this morning. Our futures are lower, too, dropping off an overnight high near the European open. As of 6:38 EST, gold was down $3.20, and crude, down $0.08 to $54.12. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped below 11,000 at the open Wednesday, trading in a tight range around that level all day. It managed a close just above 11,000, at 11,005.42, down 30.41 points or 0.28%. Hurt by the U.S.'s consumer confidence number, exporters declined, but disappointing earnings from Honda and NEC Electronics also exacerbated the negative sentiment against exporters. Both forecast that profits would decline. Honda expects lower earnings from its Asian affiliates and losses in derivatives. Fujitsu dropped ahead of its earnings results, with those results showing that net profit declined 36% for the year, with slacking demand in its software service business contributing to that loss. Mitsubishi Corp. gained, however, after a newspaper speculated that the trading firm benefited from higher prices for coking coal, and Sony gained ahead of its after-the-close earnings report. That report showed Sony's net loss in the last quarter of the year to be narrower than was expected, with the year's net profit climbing 85.1%.

Most other Asian markets closed lower, too. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.46%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 1.51%. South Korea's decline might have been due in part to some rattling of sabers by North Korea yesterday, but it was also due to a generalized weakness across the region. Hynix Semiconductor dropped despite a decision by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services to raise its rating. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.20%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.14%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 1.42%.

European markets decline today, too, with semiconductors weak for a second morning after mobile phone chip manufacturer STMicroelectronics disappointed. The company said that some improvement was beginning to be seen in some markets, but others will still see price pressures. Even U.K. semiconductor design group ARM Holdings dropped, although Morgan Stanley upgraded the company to an overweight rating.

The French business confidence survey dropped to 97 in April from March's 101, a worse-than-expected result, and March's PPI rose a higher-than-expected 0.6% month-over-month. In the U.K., March's mortgage lending rose a higher than expected number, with the number of home loans up from the previous month, but down from the year-ago level. Tomorrow, April's nationwide house price index will be released, with much attention paid to that number.

Individual stocks reacted to earnings results or updates. Seimen's dropped after reporting in-line results that included a 35.4% decrease in net income in the second quarter. Dutch bank ABN Amro climbed after reporting in-line results that showed growth in first quarter net profit. U.K. home improvement retailer Kingfisher led FTSE 100 decliners after saying that first quarter overall sales will likely be flat and comparable sales will decline 6% from the year-ago level.

As of 7:10 EST, the FTSE 100 had fallen 40.10 points or 0.83%, to 4,805.40. The CAC 40 had fallen 46.84 points or 1.17%, to 3,946.20. The DAX had fallen 58.15 points or 1.37%, to 4,175.61.

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