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Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 11:57:22 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) down $0.06 at $51.71.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 11:56:42 PM

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05m) currently unchanged at 1,412.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 11:55:45 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $30.78 -0.48% were last traded at $30.56 in Thursday's extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 11:54:55 PM

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) $40.02 -0.89% ... stock came under pressure after the close with last tick at $38.32 in Thursday's extended session. The #2 chip equipment maker said net income surged 86% to $123 million, or $0.61 per share compared to year-ago net income of $66 million or $0.33 per share. The figures were well ahead of consenses estimates of $0.56 per share. However, forward guidance for the quarter ending in June has the company projecting quarterly EPS of $0.46-$0.48 per share, which is well shy of consensus estimates of $0.53 per share.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 11:49:54 PM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.20 and set for selling at $-0.20.

OI Technical Staff : 4/28/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 8:42:07 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) is up 8 cents at $51.85 with overnight high of $52.18.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 8:38:28 PM

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05m) 1,411.00 down 1.50 points (10-min delayed). For today's swing trade long in the QQQQ, I think bulls need to see something above 1,413.50 prior to tomorrow's 09:30 AM EDT open to have a shot at a bullish session. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 8:06:26 PM

QQQQ $34.75 -0.99% .... last tick in extended session was $34.70.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 8:05:44 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.45 -2.16% ... last tick in extended session was $24.63.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 5:23:47 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 5:16:30 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 5:15:58 PM

Closing Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 4/28/2005 5:08:41 PM

More downside to go on $COMPQ?? Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 4:29:35 PM

QQQQ $34.75 -0.99% ... extended session tick at $34.83 (high/low so far in extended session $34.86-$34.60) DAILY Pivot Levels for tomorrow ... $34.44, $34.60, $34.87, $35.03, $35.30

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 4:26:25 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.45 -2.16% ... all over the map in extended session ($24.75-$24.02), $24.66 now. Updated guidance for June quarter is revenue expected to be between $10.1 billion and $10.2 billion. Operating income between $4.1 billion and $4.2 billion, which includes stock-based compensation expense. Diluted earnings per share expected to be $0.27-$0.28, which includes stock-based compensation.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 4:22:15 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.45 -2.16% ... Quarterly revenues +5% to $9.62 billion. Operating income for recent Q3 was $3.33 billion, compared to $1.28 billion same period last year. Net income comparison includes a $768 million legal charge this quarter compared to $2.53 billion same quarter last year. Net income per diluted share for Q3 was $2.56 billion, or $0.23 per share, which includes $0.05 of legal charges.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 4:16:29 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.45 -2.16% ... active here. Post-session low $24.39 on headline. $24.60 now.

Tab Gilles : 4/28/2005 4:13:53 PM

$GOLD/$GOX/NEM charts... Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 4:13:49 PM

Sell Program Premium .... DIA $100.61 -1.26%, SPY $114.26 -1.20%

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 4:09:12 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $100.60 -1.27%, SPY $114.26

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 4:08:43 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.45 -2.16% .... waiting on earnings, forward guidance.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 4:08:00 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link Today's Activity Swing trade long full position in the QQQQ at $34.93, stop $34.70, targeting $35.60.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 4:01:56 PM

The OEX did produce a breakdown signal at the close, but I distrust these closing signals. Let's see what happens tomorrow morning.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 3:53:52 PM

The OEX still has not violated Keltner support, but the support still turns lower, and will soon be a steep slide if the OEX doesn't manage a bounce. It's the last-ditch time for those in bearish positions, including our readers, to decide if they want to hold over MSFT earnings or not. I have no idea what MSFT will say or whether market participants will sell an upside surprise or buy a downside one. Depends on what the whisper number has been and whether sellers are already exhausted or not. Make your decision, though, and act soon if you need to exit a position. I think I'd take at least part of the profit, if not all.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 3:53:33 PM

The upturn in the 30 min cycle oscillators whipsawed down, and the 60 min cycle remains bearish as well. QQQQ has yet to challenge last week's lows, and the daily cycle oscillators remain on a bullish cross. The price needs to start cooperating, however, to prevent these signals from whipsawing back down- a failure of that nature would be a daily cycle "crash," the start of an oversold trending move. Until last week's lows break, that remains the less-likely scenario, but the bounce is taking its sweet time getting started.

Tab Gilles : 4/28/2005 3:46:53 PM

Here are 2 chart one from Feb 21st and todays of the $INDU, using several oscillators and the $NYSI & $VIX. Link Link

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 3:44:21 PM

And now, the OEX's slide down have a bit of a bullish falling wedge look to it.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 3:43:48 PM

The OEX is still holding above Keltner channel support, but that support is still sliding lower.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 3:42:55 PM

CMGI Inc. (CMGI) $1.77 -4.83% ... downside al_rt I had set here at 01/28/05 horizontal support.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 3:41:45 PM

This week in crude oil at this Link with today's bounce leaving a bullish doji hammer for the day. It's just a fakeout if the contract can't clear back into yesterday's range. The market left us with a big question market there.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 3:39:01 PM

About the ONLY positive I can see for a QQQQ $34.74 -1.00% is that June Crude didn't settle ABOVE $51.97.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 3:37:09 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) ... updated 30-minute interval chart at this link with bullishly fitted (PINK) 38.2% retracement as well as QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 3:36:17 PM

While the BIX has not yet retested yesterday's low, its 15-minute chart shows a distinctive bearish right-triangle look, too, as some other charts did earlier. A drop below 350.50 would seem to confirm that formation. The BIX is at 351.02 as I type. Remember that any confirmation level of a bearish position could also be a potential bounce level, because it means that prices have bounced from that level or trendline before.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 3:30:18 PM

The TRAN was not able to maintain that bounce attempt.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 3:29:57 PM

The OEX's "rise" still looks bear-flag-ish, but we'll soon see whether bulls or bears most want out of their positions. If in a bearish OEX position today (too busy monitoring other trades to do so), I would have closed out the position at 2:37 (marked it in my notes for today), though, and I imagine some bears are eyeing the refusal to fall further, despite the bear-flag-ish look, and wondering if they ought to cover. Guard profits if in bearish positions. Decide now if you're the kind of person who likes to hold over potentially market-moving events and act appropriately.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 3:24:45 PM

QQQQ has just crossed above the 7200 tick SMA and is testing 34.85 resistance. A move above 34.90 should be enough to turn the 30 min channel back up, above which 34.97 and 35.05 are resistance.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 3:22:47 PM

I'm watching the TRAN as an indicator index to see if it starts a bounce, and it may be trying to do so now. Tentative, though.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 3:18:25 PM

The OEX effort to steady at yesterday's low remains apparent. It's a standoff as markets move into the last 45 minutes of the day. Will shorts cover ahead of MSFT's earnings? Will longs bail? We're going to see soon, I guess. If I had to give a weighting to support versus resistance on the OEX, I'd be forced to give a slightly stronger weighting to Keltner support, but that's a tentative judgment.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 3:10:38 PM

This current OEX attempt to climb looks distinctly bear flag-ish. The OEX needs to do better than this to inspire bulls to step in as the OEX tests, having slightly exceeded, yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 3:10:09 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 3:09:58 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 3:08:07 PM

As the OEX tries to steady, the SOX does drift closer to a test of yesterday's low. The TRAN steadies way ahead of yesterday's low, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 3:02:21 PM

Ten year notes went out at their session high, with TNX down at 6.4 bps at 4.173%. Daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 3:02:02 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Tab Gilles : 4/28/2005 3:00:56 PM

$RUT Link

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 2:56:28 PM

The OEX is trying desperately to hold onto Keltner support, but that support is giving way underneath it. I'm not certain it will hold.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 2:54:17 PM

The BIX is also not testing yesterday's low yet, although the RLX, an important index to watch, too, I think, is violating yesterday's low.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 2:53:15 PM

Could be a bearish descending triangle for the 3-day 100-tick QQQQ. If so, then a break of yesterday's low should see a quick run below the 34.60 support. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 2:52:51 PM

Unlike the OEX, SPX and Dow, the TRAN is not yet testing and/or violating yesterday's low. Hmm. Bullish divergence in this indicator index, too?

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 2:52:29 PM

I had expected a bounce in June Crude Oil (cl05m) $51.65 +0.07% (30-min. delayed) from the $49.42 level, but not this much of a bounce.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 2:51:20 PM

Unlike the Nasdaq, the SOX has not yet violated yesterday's low. Hmm. Bullish divergence?

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 2:50:35 PM

QQQQ $34.75 -0.99% ... session low (so far) just made at $34.72.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 2:50:11 PM

I guess it was the bearish right triangle interpretation that was most correct on the OEX's 15-minute chart. See my 1:41 post. If I'd looked more closely at the advdec line, I would have known for sure that's what it was, because the advdec line had a clear bearish right triangle.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 2:47:54 PM

The OEX still tries to steady at yesterday's low, but Keltner support shows a possibility of sliding lower, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 2:39:30 PM

As could be expected, volume breadth has deteriorated further, 3.81 declining NYSE shares for each advancing, 2.81 on the Nasdaq. The TRIN is up to 1.81, TRINQ 1.89, both beyond neutral territory and indicating solid selling pressure.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 2:37:00 PM

Yesterday's QQQQ low has held so far. 100-tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 2:35:00 PM

The OEX again approaches midline support on this descending regression channel. Link A decline below the midline sets up a possible fall toward April's low, but this is again a potential bounce zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 2:33:53 PM

Crude oil closed +.15 at 51.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 2:32:21 PM

Correction to my earlier post: Money Supply data is to be released at 4:30PM, and not at 2:30PM as I incorrectly reported.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 2:31:11 PM

Switching to the 30-minute OEX chart shows a H&S set up, with the confirmation level being hit on a fall beneath Friday's low. However, this is a continuation-form H&S, and they're not always trustworthy.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 2:28:11 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $100.96 -0.92% ... that sell program premium found the DIA making a new session low. Selling looks to be picking up in XOM $56.30 -3.57%, DIS $35.00 -2.83%, HD $35.00 -2.85%, GE $35.67 -2%, MMM $75.27 -1.73%. PG $54.60 +1.98% and HPQ $20.35 +0.84% buck the trend.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 2:27:55 PM

New low for QQQQ, 4 cents away from yesterday's 34.74 low.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 2:25:16 PM

If the OEX is going to bounce, it needs to do so between the current level and the 546.88 low from last Friday, or else it's vulnerable back to the 4/20 low of 542.84.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 2:24:38 PM

Crude oil has gone green, up a dime at 51.70. TNX is solidly below 4.2%, 4.178% here, with gold at a low of 432 and a new daily cycle downphase looking imminent there.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 2:23:45 PM

The OEX tests yesterday's low.

Tab Gilles : 4/28/2005 2:22:32 PM

$WTIC Still within range of uptrending channel. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 2:21:13 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,147.70, DIA $101.07, QQQQ $34.86

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 2:20:48 PM

QQQQ back to the pennant apex here on a steep drop: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 2:18:57 PM

An amazing recovery for oil, now up to a 17.5 cent loss at 51.425 with 12 minutes to go in the daytime session.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 2:16:36 PM

That breakout above the Keltner line that's been holding the OEX back all day was short-lived, but the OEX now tests support that's held all day.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 2:12:26 PM

Bonds are holding firm, TNX down 4.3 bps at 4.194% now. The Money Supply data is due at 2:30PM, and could generate some action there upon its release.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 2:11:06 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 2:08:06 PM

June gold is back to the session low at 432.40, silver down a whopping .217 at 6.91, off a low of 6.878, with HUI down 1.75% at 175.76 and XAU -1.81% at 82.04. Nymex crude is up to 51.35, down .25 for the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 2:06:22 PM

QQQQ pulling back from a test of 35.05 here, but so far holding 34.97 support. The 30 min cycle is turning up to join the short cycle upphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 2:03:55 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 2:01:28 PM

NASDAQ-100 Heatmap at this Link finds breadth still negative at 72:28 with QQQQ $35.01 back to challenge its DAILY Pivot, and would be very early sign of late session strength if buyers could reclaim that level.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 2:01:22 PM

Nymex crude back above 51 here, currently -.50 at 51.10. IB reports a high of 51.875, but the chart shows a high at 51.45.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 2:00:57 PM

Looks as if the OEX will have its first 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 549.75 today. The OEX currently tests resistance near 551.14, with stronger resistance, perhaps, just above 552. A descending trendline off Tuesday's high now lies at about 552.90, so 552.90-553.91(Keltner resistance) would then be the next level to watch. I'm not at all certain the OEX will get much higher than 552, though. Just don't know.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 1:56:37 PM

QQQQ breaks north out of the pennant noted just now, above 35.00 as I type and testing 30 min channel resistance. The 60 min channel top is at 35.05, but these levels should rise with QQQ above 34.97. The 30 min oscillators have turned up.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 1:55:19 PM

The OEX again tests that Keltner resistance that has been holding it back on 15-minute closes all day, with that line currently at 549.62. Resistance lines still form a web above the OEX, but they're not converged in a tight band the way they were earlier: hence, the softening of resistance. They are likely to converge again near 562 if the OEX should rise that far, but the OEX can really get stopped almost at any one of them, or get propelled through them all if a strong enough buy program hits. That's getting ahead of things, though, as the OEX hasn't produced that 15-minute close above that Keltner line so far.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 1:52:54 PM

Speaking of keypunch errors ... I made some in the WEEKLY Pivot matrix as well as recorded some now-corrected bad ticks. I've updated and with just one day left in the week, will re-post the WEEKLY Pivot Matrix levels, as I've tried to clean things up. Dollar Index was the main error.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 1:51:33 PM

QQQQ $34.92 -0.51% ... continues to grind intra-day. Just had a "bad tick" to $35.92 and that's an obvious keypunch error. (34.92 / 35.92).

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 1:50:12 PM

Ten year treasuries have retested but not broken last week's highs, with TNX down 4 bps here at 4.197%. The dip to last week's low for TNX has stalled the uptick in the 10 day stochastic. Bond bears want a close above 4.2%: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 1:47:37 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) $51.00 -1.18% (30-min intervals) ... best levels of session after floor trade low of $49.80.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 1:46:02 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 1:45:22 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link , testing the declining 7200 tick SMA resistance line at 34.90.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 1:41:35 PM

If I look at the OEX's pattern one way today, I see a bearish right triangle, with a flat support level and a series of lower highs. If I squint my eyes differently, I see a sort of descending wedge shape. One is bullish and one bearish. Keltner channels show the slightest, slightest softening of Keltner support and perhaps slightly more of a softening of resistance.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 1:24:29 PM

Here's what I think about the OEX based on Keltner evidence: the OEX needs to break through that 548.44 level (lower Keltner support) and so rather soon, maybe over the next 15-30 minutes, or else Keltner resistance overhead is going to thin enough to allow another bounce. I think there's a possibility that the bounce could be into a lower high, but that depends on how Keltner channels line up at bounce time, if there is one. I think there's still danger of a breakdown, but just that it needs to happen rather soon if it's going to do so. Watch out, though, as we're entering a typical stop-running time of day. Whatever happens, you don't want to see a quick reversal if you're bullish and see the OEX break higher or if you're bearish and see it break lower.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 1:15:39 PM

QQQQ's short cycle oscillators are indicating an upphase, but the lack of price traction so far looks corrective within the 30 and 60 min descending channels. Bulls need to clear the prior high at 34.97 to stall the 30 min cycle downphase and give the short cycles some room to breathe. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 1:09:24 PM

Ten year notes are a few ticks away from retesting the session high of 111 9/16, with TNX down 3.8 bps to 4.199%. This is a key support area for TNX, a close below which would jeopardize the daily cycle upturn and risk kicking off a downside trending move in the yield.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 1:09:18 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 1:05:32 PM

Keltner support for the OEX has flattened at 548.47. It looks strong enough still to promote another bounce, but the OEX also looks weak in its inability to produce 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 549.85.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 1:01:57 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 12:58:53 PM

The OEX still finds resistance at the Keltner line currently at 549.98, with that line having stopped OEX advances on 15-minute closes all day. Support still tries to firm beneath it, though. A make-or-break point for the OEX, as it's either going to be pressured below that Keltner support or is going to pop above that Keltner line with some force, perhaps.

Tab Gilles : 4/28/2005 12:57:57 PM

$FVX/EVV Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 12:55:08 PM

QQQQ $34.91 -0.54% ... intra-day resistance at WEEKLY Pivot ($35.15) today, so bulls would look for strength above that level into the close. Session low of $34.80 looks to have found some buyers at DAILY S1 and would match intra-day buying on dips since 04/22/05.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 12:51:13 PM

Session lows for gold and silver at 432.40 and 6.961 respectively, with HUI -1.64% at 175.95, XAU -1.78% at 82.06. Nymex crude is down 1.20 at 50.40.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2005 12:48:29 PM

Anthropomorphism - Attribution of human motivation, characteristics, or behavior to inanimate objects, animals, or natural phenomena.

One needs dictionary.com to keep up with Linda. Great Word Linda.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 12:48:20 PM

QQQQ testing 7200 tick SMA resistance here at 34.94 after briefly peeking above it. 100-tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 12:49:00 PM

Swing trade long alert for a full position in the QQQQ $34.94 here, stop $34.70, target $35.60.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 12:43:07 PM

At least temporarily, OEX Keltner resistance at 550.03 is holding, but the OEX is back above the ascending trendline off yesterday's low. That's if you include all candle shadows in that trendline. If you don't, the OEX is not back above the trendline, but testing it. An iffy moment here for both bulls and bears.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 12:40:57 PM

The SOX is sinking rather reluctantly (sorry for the anthropomorphism for you English majors out there) toward the January and April double-bottom lows. Daily candles are showing signs of indecision as the SOX sinks back toward that level, with yesterday's being a doji within a consolidation zone and today's, so far, also being a doji. There's that 200-week sma overhead at 431.46, however, relentlessly pressuring the SOX. Can't remember whether it was Marc or Mark who pointed out the importance of that MA, but thanks, whoever it was. A break below 380 might get the SOX moving more swiftly to the downside, so those who believe in more upside for the SOX don't want to see that happen. There might be some weekly support near 370 and 358, but stronger at 350, of course.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 12:40:10 PM

Volume breadth has deteriorated, with 2.6 declining NYSE shares for each advancing, 2.56 on the Nasdaq. The TRINQ is up to 1.18, while the TRIN is up to 1.43, moving beyond neutral to reflect stronger selling pressure.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 12:31:26 PM

The OEX rises for a test of the Keltner line currently at 550, with that Keltner line turning back the OEX on 15-minute closes all day. The OEX has punched above this line during 15-minute periods, but has been closing beneath it.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 12:28:15 PM

Nymex crude up to a 1.1 loss at 50.50. Bonds have firmed as well, TNX down 3.6 bps to 4.201%.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 12:18:53 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link , bouncing from a low of 35.80. The short cycles are oversold, and a break above 34.97 should be enough to kick off the next upphase. However, with the 30 and 60 min channels pointed south, anything less than a very strong bounce from here will most likely be merely corrective.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 12:18:21 PM

Small violation of the OEX's ascending trendline off yesterday's low, but nothing to write home about yet. Keltner support is just below at 548.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 12:12:03 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 12:09:12 PM

Mixed evidence right now on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner channel. Support is trying to firm from 548.59-549.24, but resistance looks firmer up near 551.55-552.33. As long as the OEX continues producing 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 550.40, it shows vulnerability to continued tests of that support, but Keltner lines are aligned so that it's difficult to tell whether to give more weighting to the support or the resistance. The OEX is currently above an ascending trendline that began forming off yesterday's low, but is testing that trendline as I type. Either time for another bounce soon, or for a drop through support. That trendline is at about 549.24.

Tab Gilles : 4/28/2005 12:08:59 PM

Just listening in on XOM Conference Call. Going over some fundamentals and technicals. XOM at $57 is trading at 12.8 '05 eps of $4.45 and 11.5 times forward. Compare this to the S&P trading at 16 times this year's projected earnings. Exxon's financials have improved dramatically also, with cash pouring, nearing $20B and debt-to-capital ratio has fallen to 7.3% from 15.4%. XOM is a great long term buy.

Here are several energy stock charts. We could see nearterm decline, but longterm this sector is a buy. Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 12:05:32 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 12:03:03 PM

SAP Aktiengesell (SAP) $39.36 -0.78% Link ... similar business to KRON.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 12:02:11 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 12:03:25 PM

Oracle (ORCL) $11.76 -1.17% Link ... may be seeing some "sympathy weakness" as it relates to KRON.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 12:01:09 PM

Kronos (KRON) $39.18 -20.31% Link ... Achieved its bearish vertical count to $39.00. Stock hit after the manufacturer of human resource, payroll, scheduling, and time and labor solutions forecasted Q3 results that fell short of Wall Street estimates.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 11:45:25 AM

The OEX did turn down from Keltner channel, and drops to test Keltner support from 548.62-549.37. There's a potential for a higher low, if the Keltner-style bullish divergence we saw earlier continues.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 11:44:34 AM

Aaron Rents (RNT) $22.13 +16.35% Link ... #4 on percentage gainer list after reporting strong-than-forecasted earnings yesterday. Upgraded at Morgan Joseph to "buy" from "hold." The specialty retailing and rental of residential and office furniture said quarterly revenues rose 15% to $279.3 million compared to $242.5 million in the same period last year. Net earnings jumped 44% to $18.4 million, or $0.36 per share compared to $12.8 million, or $0.26 per share in the same period last year.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 11:34:45 AM

Nymex crude -1.425 or -2.76% here at 50.175.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 11:34:09 AM

MRV Communications (MRVC) $1.89 -37.62% Link ... manufacturer/distributor of telecom equipment and services making 52-week low as losses widen on 4% gain in year-over-year revenue.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 11:33:34 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link , back below 7200 tick SMA resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 11:29:12 AM

Volume breadth is negative across the exchanges, with 2.09 declining NYSE shares for each advancing, 1.97 declining for each advancing on the Nasdaq. The TRIN is up at 1.24, the TRINQ 1.02, both reflecting neutral selling pressure.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 11:24:23 AM

June Unleaded Gas (hu05m) 1.49 -3.87% (30-minute delayed) ... came close to 50% conventional retracement ($1.465) of its 12/27/04 contract low to 04/04/05 intra-day high of $1.76. Some consumers miiiiight see regular unleaded at $2.00 in the next week or so here in the U.S.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 11:17:54 AM

The 30 min channel is drifting sideways for QQQQ within the declining 60 min channel. The oscillators didn't have time to reverse upward, and given the failure of bears to break the lows yesterday, my guess is that we're looking at a corrective 30 min cycle downphase within the bottoming daily cycle. If so, a break of the current 35.15 high will target 35.25, above which these intraday cycles should whipsaw to the upside A break of the low would target 34.80, the current 60 min channel bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 11:16:20 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 11:07:01 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 11:05:46 AM

Ten year treasuries are sliding sideways, coiling just off the morning highs. TNX is down 2 bps at 4.217%, barely moving. So far, the probe beneath 4.2% has not been revisited. Daily chart updated at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 11:04:29 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) $24.75 -1.19% Link ... pierced its rising 200-day SMA ($24.71) yesterday, testing here. I will most likely lower a trade stop to just above $26.00 on this bearish profiled trade. Relavite Strength chart vs. QQQQ recently gave a "sell signal" Link on 04/22/05

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 10:57:30 AM

Crude oil's rolling over again, down to 50.05 here. 30-tick chart of June crude from Monday's open at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 10:55:27 AM

Airline Index (XAL.X) 45.52 +1.42% ... lone percentage gainer among the equity indices in the U.S. Market Watch. June Crude (cl05m) $49.91 -3.29% (30-min delayed) cracking the $50.00 level. Bullishly fitted 38.2% retracement at $49.42, which was fit to the 01/25/05 settlement should be a formidable near-term support level.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 10:52:55 AM

I have to step away for a few minute. The OEX's Keltner resistance is holding, and as long as 15-minute closes are beneath the Keltner resistance from 552.17-552.90, vulnerablility to today's low remains.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 10:52:34 AM

Dow Chemical (DOW) $45.25 +1.07% Link ... saying it sees long way until peak in polyethylene cycle.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 10:49:02 AM

The just-completed OEX 15-minute candle was a doji at resistance, indicative of a possible reversal, giving bears hoping for a rollover beneath this resistance more hope. There was bullish divergence on the last test of Keltner support this morning, so balance your decisions against that knowledge.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 10:47:26 AM

A sharp spike lower for QQQQ here- it might be a hiccup in my data feed, which has been choppy recently, but in any event price is back below 7200 tick SMA support. This is very choppy action this morning: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 10:38:52 AM

Nymex crude up to a 1.375 or 2.66% loss at 50.225 here.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 10:37:34 AM

As the shape of the climb predicted, the OEX did make it above the first Keltner resistance, producing a 15-minute close above it. Now it tests stronger resistance at the 552.23-553.18 level. If this resistance doesn't hold, then we have to assume that the OEX is indeed settling into an equilibrium position and that 555.68 might be tested. So far, that resistance does hold, but the OEX lately has been just zooming from one side of the Keltner channels to the other.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 10:34:19 AM

Channel resistance for the 30 and 60 min cycles lines up at 35.20, with confluence resistance to yesterday's 35.25 high. With the 30 min cycle downphase in the process of reversing, that level should prove key resistance. If the bulls can break it, the 30 min cycle will whipsaw bullishly to the upside. That move will have broader implications for the daily cycle trying to turn up since last week.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 10:32:07 AM

Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,155.46, DIA $101.80, QQQQ $35.13

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 10:31:42 AM

QQQQ bids gapping higher, with price up to 35.13 here and climbing to test rising 30 min channel resistance: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 10:30:34 AM

Sanmina (SANM) $4.07 -9.55% ... provider of customized, integrated electronics manufacturing services lower after posting larger-than-expected loss on write off of good will. Company reported net loss for its Q2 of $1.04 billion, or $-1.99 per share, compared with loss of $43.8 million, or $-0.09 per share in year-ago quarter. Revenue for recent quarter rose just less than 1% to $2.89 billion from $2.86 billion. Excluding a pre-tax charge of $600 million for impairment of good will and other assets and $379 million noncash charge related to deferred tax assets, SANM said it would have reported a profit of $29.3 million, or $0.06 per share. Analysts were looking profit before items of $0.05 per share, on revenue of $2.98 billion. Other contract mfg. has Solectron (SLR) $3.18 -1.24% and Flextronics (FLEX) $10.69 -2.28% trading lower.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 10:25:42 AM

The OEX tests Keltner resistance at a line currently at 551.32. The rise has been too precipitous for me to conclude that it's bear-flagish, so I'm uncertain as to the outcome of this test of resistance. Stronger resistance is from 552.25-553.18.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 10:23:24 AM

A while ago, I showed a monthly TRAN chart, showing that the TRAN was testing--even breaching--an envelope that usually was the outer boundary of major swing highs and swing lows. Now the TRAN turns down from that envelope: Link Bulls could take a look at the shape of that downturn and feel it possible that it could be a bull flag. It could be, but the size of the flag is large in comparison to previous candle sizes, so there's some doubt. I don't see any other time since 1998 that a test of that envelope hasn't meant a downturn to the 200-month ema at least.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 10:23:06 AM

Most actives ... SIRI $4.84 +3.85%, QQQQ $34.97 -0.37%, MSFT $24.76 -0.92%, SPY $115.20 -0.37%, CSCO $17.22 -0.11%, MATK $33.40 -44.44%, INTC $23.49 -0.12%, JDSU $1.48 -10.3%, SUNW $3.52 -0.56%, SANM $4.07 -9.55%

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 10:20:21 AM

Session low for Nymex crude here at 50.00.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 10:19:49 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 10:17:29 AM

The last OEX 15-minute candle was a taller one than bears would have hoped, but the OEX begins a downturn now during this 15-minute period. First Keltner resistance is at a Keltner line currently at 551.22, and bears would like to see continued 15-minute closes beneath that line. Stronger resistance is from 552.24-552.83.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 10:16:01 AM

QQQQ is back above the 7200 tick SMA, with the short cycle oscillators ticking up. First resistance is at 35.05, followed by the 35.10-.13 area confluence, also the current 30 min channel top.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 10:11:05 AM

Ten year notes still firm, TNX -2.8 bps at 4.209%. Nymex crude is down 1.175 at 50.425, off a low of 50.35 just printed.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 10:08:41 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 10:07:10 AM

The OEX is beginning the expected bounce from the Keltner line that's now at 548.91. Bears want to see the bounce be corrective, with a series of small-bodied white and red candles zig-zagging up toward next Keltner resistance. That's currently at a line at 551.36, with bears also wanting to see 15-minute closes continue to be under that line. That line turns lower, and could be lower by the time it's tested. Resistance near 552.30-553.12 looks stronger.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 10:06:41 AM

QQQQ rises to test the declining 7200 tick SMA here at 35. A break above it should stall the 30 min channel downphase, though the oscillators are nowhere near oversold. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 10:02:24 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 10:01:02 AM

Help-Wanted Index 39 vs 41 exp.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 9:56:23 AM

OEX bears need to have profit-protecting plans in place for the current test of Keltner support and recent swing lows. The OEX approaches the level from which buyers have begun stepping in lately. Doesn't mean it will happen today or happen as strongly, but there's danger of that very thing happening.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 9:56:09 AM

The Fed just announced a 7B overnight repo, resulting in a net drain of 1B today.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 9:55:07 AM

The OEX hit its downside Keltner target and now attempts a bounce from that just-above-549 target. Bears would now prefer to see a 15-minute close beneath the line currently at 549.07 to create a new downside target, but there could be a bounce up to next Keltner resistance instead. Nearest resistance is just overhead, at 550.10 but next resistance, from 551.83-552.65, is stronger, and bears want to see continued 15-minute closes beneath the lower end of that band. If the OEX does bounce that high and if the bounce is corrective, and if internals support such a play, bears can look for a rollover from that level as a new bearish entry. If we see some of yesterday's tall white candles, though, be wary of such an entry. We have been alternating strong drops with strong climbs, and there doesn't seem to be much in between.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 9:53:21 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $101.34 -0.55% ... WEEKLY Pivot here on negative breadth of 24:6. Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $56.65 -2.96%, now the #8 most heavily weighted component provides the drag after weaker-than-expected earnings report. Procter & Gamble (PG) $53.87 +0.63% is percentage gainer.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 9:52:18 AM

Gold and silver remain weak, June gold down .30 at 433.90 and silver -.098 at 7.029, a new session low. HUI and XAU are down as well, -1.84% at 175.6 and -1.71% at 82.12. Crude oil finished the morning session -.925 at 50.675.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 9:51:31 AM

On a 15-minute Keltner basis, the Dow looks vulnerable to a drop to 10,113.75, although it's currently stretching out Keltner support and could be snapped back into a bounce before reaching that downside goal. It won't erase the vulnerability to that lower target until there's a 15-minute close above a Keltner line currently at 10,177.23.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 9:49:45 AM

Help Wanted Index due in 10 minutes, est. 41.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 9:48:57 AM

The TRAN isn't falling far from its slightly higher open today, although on a Keltner basis, it's created a breakdown signal on its daily chart, and is having trouble at next upside resistance, maintaining that breakdown signal today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 9:48:38 AM

VIX.X 15.24 +2.48% ... Daily Pivot Levels ... 13.57, 14.22, Piv= 15.07, 15.72, 16.57.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 9:46:03 AM

Session lows for ES and YM futures here, with QQQQ pulling down to 34.93: Link . Current 30 min channel support is at 34.80, but will continue to decline with price below the 7200 tick SMA at 35.05. Yesterday's low is next key support at 34.73.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 9:45:42 AM

First potential Keltner support isn't doing much to hold up the OEX and it's headed straight down to next support, now at 549.16. The OEX has been violating that support on recent swing lows by a slight amount before it heads up again, so another such slight violation could occur, but then the OEX should at least attempt a bounce, even if that bounce should turn out not to be successful.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 9:42:37 AM

Ten year notes have bulled back from their highs but are creeping back up, with ten year note yields currently down 2.2 bps at 4.215%. 4.2% remains key support for the daily cycle, and was cracked this morning: updated chart of the TNX at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 9:39:21 AM

The Fed has 16B in various repos expiring today, and has announced an 8B 14-day repo so far, leaving another 8B with which to deal at the 10AM announcement.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 9:39:06 AM

A look at the OEX with relationship to its descending regression channel suggests that the OEX is again vulnerable to the midline of that channel, now near 546.70, but the 15-minute Keltner channel evidence suggests that the OEX would need a 15-minute close beneath a Keltner line currently at 549.27 to confirm that potential. Support could be found and will likely be found near that Keltner line, with that support at least producing a steadying or a tepid climb, if not more.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 9:42:25 AM

Dow Chemical (DOW) $45.60 +1.85% ... reported Q1 income of $1.35 billion, or $1.39 per share, up from $469 million, or $0.50 per share last year. The $1.39 included a $0.05 per share gain on the sale of the company's stake in its Equate joint venture. Sales were up 25% to $11.68 billion from $9.31 billion in the same period last year. Analysts were looking for EPS of $1.05 on sales of $11.59 billion. Company said product volumes were down 1% versus year-ago measures, largely because of divestitures in 2004. Excluding those divestitures, volumes increased more than 2% from year-ago levels.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 9:34:41 AM

I think I made a mistake in being too hesitant to assume that a downturn would occur below the 200-sma this morning. I thought it likely that might occur, but was worried about how deep the downside might be and whether it might be a tradable move, especially given the hiked-up values of options at the open. Bears in current positions should be aware of potential Keltner support being tested now, with perhaps firmer support near 549.27.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 9:28:29 AM

Martek Biosciences (MATK) $60.08 ... plunging to $31.90, down 46% after the company cut its 2005 sales and earnings estimates. Martek lowering fiscal 2005 revenue forecast range to $220-$240 million. Company revised its Q3 sales estimates to $61-$76 million, citing an expected decline in Q3 sales due to lower demand from large customers that built up big inventories of Martek's baby formula to protect against shortages.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2005 9:19:41 AM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $4.88 +4.49% #1 among pre-market most active after posting wider Q1 loss. Company said losses widened to $193.6 million, or $-0.15 per share, from $144.1 million, or $-0.12 per share in the same period last year. Revenues almost quadrupled to $43.2 milion from $9.3 million last year. Analysts were looking for a loss of $-0.15 per share on sales of $40.5 million.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 9:17:04 AM

Exxon Mobil (XOM) grew earnings from 83 cents or $5.44 billion to $1.22 per share or $7.86 billion, a 44% gain. Excluding a one-time gain from the sale of its stake in Sinopec, earnings EPS was $1.15 per share, missing estimates by 5 cents. Revenues rose 21% to $82.05 billion, but on weaker sales.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 9:13:09 AM

Gold is down 1.20 at 433, off a low of 432.40 and retesting daily cycle support discussed yesterday and last week. Updated daily chart of June gold at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 9:06:17 AM

What happened yesterday on the OEX? The OEX rolled down through the descending regression channel in which it's traded since early March. I warned that support might be found on a test of the midline of the midline support of that descending regression channel or at last Friday's low, and that's what happened. Link

The rise off Wednesday's low took the form of a bear flag, a tight pattern of higher highs and higher lows, but when it pushed above the 50% retracement of the decline off Tuesday's high, it no longer looked so bear-flag-ish. However, the OEX tested the 200-sma but couldn't maintain values above that -sma. Bulls who have bought recent tests of the 200-sma must remember what's happened on the days following upside tests of the 200-sma and might have been reluctant to continue the buying. I would have been.

At the close, the OEX's 15-minute Keltner channel suggested that the OEX might retest that 200-sma again, but didn't give much further information and didn't even give strong confirmation of that potential test, as the Keltner channels had settled into an equilibrium position. Often when this happens, the OEX settles into a tight sideways range, chopping around within one of its Keltner channels, moving easily across the Keltner lines that gather near the central level or else clinging to that central level. Hopefully, such a consolidation, if it does occur, will set up in some sort of formation--a rectangular trading range or triangle, for example--that gives traders a chance to identify breakout levels. An upside break will face resistance at the top of the descending regression channel, now at about 556.60 and the 200-ema, now at 557.13. The 200-ema proved important in the OEX's consolidation from the middle of March into the middle of April. Those already in bullish positions should have profit-protecting plans in place if the OEX should break above the 200-sma and then test that level. Bulls wanting confirmation of a breakout should watch for a breakout from the 556.60-557.13 level, while bears will watch for a rollover from that level. Those taking either taking breakout or rollover positions should be watchful for a quick reversal and ready to jump right back out of a just-taken position.

There's potential for a rollover from that 200-sma, too, of course, with the daily Keltner chart giving an equal weighting to the possibility for a rollover toward 543.30 or an upside move to 561-562. Futures suggest a lower or modestly lower open this morning, so there's a possibility that such a rollover could begin at the open. As Keene noted last night in the Wrap, trading has been unpredictable lately, however, to say the least, and I hesitate to conclude that's what's going to happen ahead of the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 8:54:06 AM

QQQQ is down to a new session low at 34.87 after breaking the neckline noted yesterday. Currently, price is below the 30 and 60 min channels, with the 30 min oscillators in a new downphase following yesterday's upphase. Updated 100-tick chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 8:33:41 AM

Session lows for gold and silver at 433.20 and 7.07. Equities dipped initially and are back to their prior levels, ES at 1154 and QQQQ -.17 at 34.93. Bonds have weakened, TNX -.3 bps at 4.228%.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 8:32:16 AM

Headlines:

U.S. 1Q CORE PCE PRICE INDEX UP 2.2% VS. 1.7%

U.S. 1Q CONSUMER SPENDING UP 3.5% VS. 4.2%

U.S. 1Q BUSINESS INVESTMENT RISES 4.7% VS. 14.5%

U.S. GDP UP 3.6% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

U.S. 1Q INVENTORY BUILDING ADDS 1.2% TO GDP

U.S. 1Q EQUIPMENT, SOFTWARE INVESTMENT UP 6.9%

U.S. 1Q FINAL SALES UP 1.9%, SLOWEST IN 9 QUARTERS

U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 21,000 TO 320,000

U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 8,000 TO 323,000

U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 76,000 TO 2.56 MLN

U.S. 1Q GDP grows 3.1%, slowest growth in 2 years

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 8:25:53 AM

Ten year bonds are holding their gains as equities begin to rise into the 8:30 data, with TNX down 1.2 bps at 4.225%. Updated daily chart of the TNX at this Link , today's candle just a few minutes old. Crude oil has dived to a session low of 50.775 here, -.825.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 8:09:36 AM

CCE reported a Q1 profit of $46 million or 10 cents, from last year's $104 million or 22 cents per share, missing estimates by a penny. Revenues declined from $4.24 billion to $4.2 billion in the current quarter. The company cited higher costs, waning European sales, and the fact that this year's Q1 was 2 days shorter than the year-ago quarter.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 8:08:55 AM

Session high for ten year notes, ZN futures up .15% to 111 3/8.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/28/2005 7:29:48 AM

Equities are lower, ES -2 at 1155.25, NQ 1423, YM 10176 and QQQQ -.12 at 34.98. June gold is down .20 at 434, off a low of 433.20, silver -.037 at 7.09, ten year notes +1/8 at 111 11/32 and crude oil is down .325 at 51.275.

We await the 8:30 release of Q1 GDP, est. 3.5% and Chain Deflator, est. 2.1%, Initial Claims, est. 320K, and at 10AM, the Help Wanted Index, est. 41.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2005 7:27:04 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei barely pulled out a close above 11,000 again last night, doing so with a last-minute rise ahead of Golden Week holidays beginning Friday. Other Asian markets were mixed, as are European markets this morning. Our futures have worsened over the last hour. As of 6:39 EST, gold was down $0.40, and crude, down $0.31 to $51.30. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

March's Japanese industrial production fell 0.3% month over month, a result that disappointed. Transport equipment and electrical machinery led the decline. One glimmer of hope was that industrial output rose 1.7% in the just-concluded quarter as compared to the previous quarter. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry predicted that production will rise in April. March's retail sales rose 0.6% year over year, a result that was better than expected, but fell 0.9% month over month.

For the second day in a row, the Nikkei opened below 11,000, but once again it pulled out a close just above that level, at 11,008.90, up 3.48 points or 0.03%. The Nikkei had zoomed up in the last few minutes to pull out that close. That last-minute rise occurred ahead of Friday's holiday, leading into Golden Week holidays that will also see the Nikkei closing Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

Exporters led the early declines. Sony was also impacted after yesterday's earnings result, and it closed lower by 1.8% despite that end-of-day climb. The company said that net income for the year will decline due to charges for equipment and a decline in prices of some of its products. Kyocera, however, gained in early trading after saying that it expects to see a 76% rise in annual profit due to an uptick in its electronics equipment unit.

Other reporting companies included Hitachi, reporting after Thursday's close, and climbing ahead of that report. The company reported a net profit that tripled for the year. Group operating profit rose 51.0%, and revenue rose 4.6%. The report mentioned increasing sales of electronics materials, industrial machinery and consumer electronics goods. Matsushita Electric Industrial Company rose ahead of its after-the-close earnings report. The company reported a 39% rise in group net profit, a 58% increase in group operating profit, and a 17% rise in revenue. Strong sales of flat-screen televisions helped produce those results. NEC fell after yesterday's earnings report, with the company noting weak demand for semiconductors and seeing group profits for the last quarter dropping 77% on the year.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.11%, but South Korea's Kospi dropped 1.34%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.24%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.50%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 1.77%.

European markets are also mixed. Germany's April jobless numbers declined 79,000, with that drop at least partly attributable to changes in labor market regulations. Seasonally adjusted, the jobless rate fell from the previous 12.0% to 11.8%. The unadjusted total declined below 5 million, a benchmark level. Also in Germany, the statistics office revealed the results of its change in computations of the GDP, with the country changing to a chain-linked method for prices and revising reports from earlier years. Those revisions show that Germany's economic stagnated in 2003 rather than contracted, as had been suggested by the previous number. Revisions of more recent numbers showed Q4's GDP result worsening, showing a 0.1% drop quarter-over-quarter, against the previously reported 0.2% rise. Private consumption, of concern in Germany, benefited from the change in computation methods, now appearing stronger than had first been reported.

Earlier, the FTSE 100 had been benefiting from strength in pharmaceuticals, but the FTSE 100 lost some of its gains as this report was prepared. Gains in pharmaceuticals occurred after GlaxoSmithKline was able to affirm its projection for earnings growth this year after the company reached an agreement with U.S. regulators that allowed it to do so. That agreement was with the FDA and allowed the company to continue manufacturing products at a plant in Puerto Rico. SkyePharma also announced that it had reached a royalty deal with Glaxo related to its Paxil CR treatment, and reported a 17% rise in sales and a 39% increase in royalty income in the 2005 fiscal year. Although pharmaceuticals helped the FTSE 100, a decline in BHP Billiton after its earnings result kept pressure on the FTSE 100. News out of the U.K. also included a report that Tony Blair refuses to rule out raising U.K. corporate taxes if he's elected to a third term.

Other reporting companies in Europe include DaimlerChrylser, with Q1 profit dropping 30%, due in part to expenses incurred as the company repaired defective Mercendes-Benz vehicles and overhauled its Smart small-car unit. Deutsche-Bank reported job-cut costs lower than had been expected, and profit rising 17% as a result.

As of 7:06 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 6.20 points or 0.13%, at 4,795.60. The CAC 40 was lower by 9.87 points or 0.25%, at 3,917.81. The DAX had fallen 7.58 points or 0.18%, to 4,181.44.

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