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Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 2:58:57 AM

NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) Link was unchanged today. Can tie in with S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 2:02:47 AM

In my 01:59:14 Post, the pivot levels posted (in chart) were taken from QCharts' calculations.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:59:14 AM

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05m) down 3.0 points at 1,449.00. Daily interval chart with previously shown bearish-fitted 38.2% retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:49:21 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.92 and set for program selling at $-0.22.

OI Technical Staff : 5/4/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 9:21:15 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Today's Activity ... Closed out one (1) of the Sap Aktiengesell SAP Sep $40 Puts (SAP-UH) at the bid of $2.00. ($-0.75, or -27.27%) Closed out the 1/2 bullish swing trade long in the QQQQ at $35.75. ($+0.67, or 1.91%) Established a swing trade put in General Motors with two (2) GM Sep. $30 Puts (GM-UF) at the offer of $3.50. If I get a MAXIMUM decline to $29.00 (without any further Kerkorian news) I would look to close out. If Kerkorian doesn't take stake, then depending on further market analysis, may continue to hold.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 8:54:58 PM

Pivot Matrix for Thursday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 4:47:57 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 4:35:42 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Tab Gilles : 5/4/2005 4:00:40 PM

$USD Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 3:48:44 PM

QQQQ testing rising 7200 tick SMA support here at 35.73.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 3:48:05 PM

SPX trying to break above upper Keltner resistance, but the TRAN isn't yet able to do so, the Dow has just now touched it, the OEX just now approaches it, and the SOX hasn't even reached that upper resistance. The BIX, too , attempts an upside breakout, but the RLX, like the TRAN, turns down slightly after touching it. Lots of indices hitting upper resistance with charts that look bearish-rising-wedge-ish and needing breakouts and vertical climbs to produce strong climbs now. Not saying it can't happen. That's what Keltner channels were designed to do--find such breakouts--but this means that risk over the very short term is shifting now onto the shoulders of the bulls. On the OEX, in particular, the OEX has headed right into presumed strong daily Keltner resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 3:47:41 PM

Bullish swing trade long exit alert for the QQQQ $35.75

Tab Gilles : 5/4/2005 3:41:54 PM

Nasdaq100 ($NDX) Targeting 1480 on the $NDX. Link $VXN weekly... Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 3:41:38 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert for the QQQQ $35.83 ... to $35.75.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 3:38:23 PM

The TRAN has reached and is slightly turning down from upper Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 3:38:00 PM

Utility Index (UTY.X) 404.58 -0.03% ... almost green.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 3:37:56 PM

The SPX has reached upper Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 3:36:07 PM

At 35.80, QQQQ has recovered all of its losses of the past three weeks. The 30 and 60 min oscillators show a pattern of higher lows, which confirms the daily cycle upphase that signalled last week but only began to kick in on Friday. The next major resistance is at 36.00, going back to mid-April, and given the intraday bullish trending action here, even a corrective pullback may be too much for bears to wish for. A break of 35.70 will stall the 30 min upphase, but it would just be overbought noise without a downside break of 35.60, prior confluence resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 3:35:34 PM

QQQQ $35.81 +1.44% ... BLUE #5 here. BLUE #6 at $35.94.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 3:33:45 PM

QQQQ update alert as the session has progressed you can tell I've been "looking for something more" from the bullish side. Bulls should get it toward the close as market makers back off and "make'm pay" toward the close. I will sell the QQQQ swing trade long at 03:59 PM EDT, or at current stop of $35.72.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 3:28:57 PM

The OEX heads up toward the upper Keltner target at 561.02. The 15-minute chart still retains a bearish rising wedge look, but those upper shadows on 15-minute candles an hour ago weren't predictive of a pullback after all. Because of the approaching resistance (Keltner, long-term Fib level, etc.), bulls still need to keep their profit-protecting plans in place, but they might not need them into the close.

Tab Gilles : 5/4/2005 3:25:11 PM

EUR/USD 5 minute chart Link

$GOX Link

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 3:24:50 PM

The SOX's climb, too, has a bit of a bearish rising wedge look to it, too. The Keltner channels suggest an upside target of 396.24.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 3:23:03 PM

Lately, I've been watching, trying to decipher whether a chart-drawn descending regression channel's trendline or a hand-drawn one has more relevance. Sometimes those regression channels seem off somewhat, or can have different trendlines depending on where you stop and start the channels when snapping them. Therefore, although I've previously always relied on the regression channel, with a confirming point for the breakout, this time on the OEX, there were reasons not to trust this breakout until a move above the 200-ema. However, looking at the price action with relationship to the chart-drawn regression channel that I've shown several times over the last couple of weeks, the OEX broke above the channel, consolidated after the breakout, sliding a bit down the former resistance, and then sprang up from it, easily passing through the hand-drawn, exact trendline. The chart-drawn regression channel appeared to have more relevance than the exact trendline.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 3:20:28 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 3:19:38 PM

Ten year notes finished fractionally higher, with TNX closed -.3 bps at 4.186%. Daily chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 3:17:03 PM

Back to find QQQQ at a new high at 35.80, once again testing the upper 30 min channel resistance. 7200 tick SMA support is up to 35.68, above which the upside trending move will continue. Volume reamins light overall, with just 75M shares traded compared with yesterday's 104M. Price is the final arbiter, light volume or not, and remains in a bullish upside trending move within the daily cycle upphase. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 3:16:09 PM

Yes, 561.23 is the 38.2% retracement of the entire bear-market decline on the OEX.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 3:16:05 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... for the QQQQ $35.80 ... to $35.72.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 3:14:55 PM

If I'm remembering correctly, OEX 561.23 is the 38.2% retracement of the entire bear-market decline. Have to check that.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 3:13:51 PM

The OEX struggles with the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the March high, with that level at about 559.50. I'd expect some consolidation here if not a pullback, but perhaps not until after a thrust up toward 561.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 3:05:35 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 3:03:57 PM

The OEX's fifteen-minute pattern is now beginning to take on a bearish-rising-wedge look. A lot of these have been breaking to the upside in vertical moves over the last couple of years, but the formation is usually not one indicating stability. Don't anticipate a breakout since the OEX stocks could see a bout of short-covering into the close, but just be aware of the implications.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 3:01:15 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 2:58:38 PM

Can't deny the breakout: Link However, as I mentioned a couple of days ago with reference to the difficulties I saw in moving higher other than in fits and starts, the OEX is right now testing the 38.2% retracement off the March high. I had recommended that on any breakout above the 200-ema, bulls have profit-protecting plans in the 559.50-ish level, and it's time to make sure you have that plan in place.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/4/2005 2:56:39 PM

Initial target for INTC is 24.12 and is about to be hit. Take some off those calls if you want.

Tab Gilles : 5/4/2005 2:57:51 PM

I want to recap some stocks I track in which I've highlighted on in the past week or so.

Electronic Arts (ERTS) Reported Tuesday inline but forecasted losses for the first half of the fiscal year. EA, the world's largest publisher of video games in terms of revenue, said it expected to lose as much as 28 cents per share in the first half of the fiscal year ending March 2006. Analysts polled by Reuters Estimates had been expecting a profit of about 34 cents per share in that window. But the company's full-year forecast was within range of Wall Street expectations. It said returns in this fiscal year, more than most, would be concentrated in the second half. I stated on my MM post 5/2/05 8:44 AM, that we needed some more clarity, and if things had worsened, to expect volatility. Well...we're getting it. Here's the chart from 4/29 longterm weekly. Link current chart.. Link

CIGNA (CI) Posted 5/3 1:52PM & 5/3 9:05 AM. I pointed out that a Cup & Handle formation and a break over resistance with a $100 price objective. Well...Cigna blew away estimates reporting net income rose to $436 million, or $3.28 a share, from $68 million, or 48 cents, earned in the same period last year. The company also projected adjusted earnings from operations in the range of $1.35 to $1.55 a share for the second quarter and at $6.40 to $6.90 a share for 2005 as a whole. Average estimates stand at $1.52 and $6.19 a share, respectively. Link Link ...current chart...http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=CI,uu[h,a]dacayiay[dc][pb50!a92.85][vc60][iLa8,18,6!Lb9]&pref=G

Murphy Oil (MUR) This stock has down alot from near $105 late March. The 100 and 150- ema's have in the past provided excellent entry pointrs. But with oil hovering around $50 and further declines in the nearterm I targeted $85 as an entry level as indicated in this chart. Link Link ...current chart...http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=MUR,uu[w,a]dacaynay[dc][pc150!a85][iLa8,18,6!Lb9]&pref=G

Looks like a possible bullish divergence developing here for MUR?!

Today's news of the Fed bringing back the 30 year bond. WOW! You know I thought about this about a month ago, when I was looking at EVV and the $FVX. I asked myself, why did they stop selling it 4 years ago. Because there was a budget surplus....hmmmmm....we now have a budget deficit??? This goes back to what I reported on 5/3 2:07 AM. How would the FED deal with the $7T in debt?

Eaton vance Limited duration (EVV) Nice move up there thus far today. Link Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 2:44:42 PM

Volume has dried up again, but with zero pullback in price. Updated QQQQ chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 2:32:12 PM

Volume breadth has strenghtened to 5.1:1 in favor of NYSE advancing shares and 3:1 for the Nasdaq. The TRIN is holding at .58, and the TRINQ is down to .69 - neither reading extreme.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 2:30:18 PM

Despite that upside target set by the OEX's Keltner chart, the 15-minute candles show upper candles, a potential sign of at least short-term weakness.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 2:26:31 PM

Nymex crude is down to a .525 gain at 50.025 here with 4 minutes to go in the regular session.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 2:24:13 PM

Back. The OEX has set up a potential Keltner upside target of 560.80.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 2:24:35 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... to $35.60 (original target).

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 2:23:38 PM

Bullish swing trade cancel target alert for the QQQQ $35.72

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 2:19:42 PM

QQQQ bounced from 35.62 on that pullback and is back to the highs, with 30 min channel resistance rising now to 35.74. Until price gets back below 35.60, confirmed by a break of 7200 tick SMA support at 35.54, the bias will remain to the upside. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 2:16:36 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 2:02:34 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 2:02:01 PM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link with price holding above 35.65 resistance and above the 30 and 60 min channel tops. As earlier today, this is the most likely spot for the bears to push back. If they don't, then we're looking at an overbought trending move for these longer cycles, very bullish within the ongoing daily cycle upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 1:58:29 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... for the QQQQ $35.66 ... to $35.46.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 1:56:48 PM

I have to step away for about twenty minutes.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 1:56:32 PM

The SOX is breaking out above Keltner resistance, and bulls want to see that breakout hold through the close of the 15-minute period, setting an upside target of 395.84. I'd be careful a bit lower, however.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 1:55:34 PM

Buy Program Premium SPX 1,172.88, DIA $103.68, QQQQ $35.70.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 1:53:43 PM

QQQQ $35.60 +0.84% ... high of session.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 1:52:50 PM

Session highs for QQQQ and ES futures here. QQQQ is coming in for a test of 35.60-.65 resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 1:50:09 PM

Ten year bonds are back to their opening highs, with TNX now down .7 bps to 4.182%. Below 4.18%, there's confluence support at 4.14%-4.16%.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 1:48:48 PM

We did post about the SOX at the same time, Marc. I also see 395 as fairly significant, right now the site of a best-fit former supporting trendline off the April low. On 4/27, the SOX gapped below that best-fit trendline that I've drawn and then subsequently tested it, with 60-minute candles piercing it but the candle bodies closing below it, so I took that as some corroboration that it was a valid trendline to watch. It was also the top of that consolidation zone from April.

However, I'm far from sure about whether the SOX will break out today or not. I see it still testing Keltner resistance. I know you don't watch this, but I find it helpful, and the SOX hasn't convincingly broken out of that resistance. If it does, producing 15-minute closes above a line currently at 391.05, the Keltners suggest a move up to 395.63. Today, though, the price action has been odd with respect to the Keltners, not following through particularly well on any kind of signal.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 1:37:58 PM

The SOX also has a H&S-like formation at the top of its climb, but it, too, has not confirmed that formation. Currently, it would take a drop below about 389.60 to confirm it. Careful, careful, though, as these are forming as we head into a typical stop-running time of day. I've seen times when these are confirmed as stops are run, only then to see prices pop right up and then zoom higher, invalidating the H&S formations.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 1:32:14 PM

Little change in volume breadth, with the TRIN a little lower at .57 and the TRINQ holding steady at .83. QQQQ continues to inch up, and other than a few stray volume spikes, it's very quiet. That could change on a move past the 35.58 high, but for the moment, the upper keltner channels are not budging from the 35.60-.62 range. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 1:26:30 PM

The OEX does battle with 15-minute Keltner resistance just overhead, turning down from that resistance. Keltner support really hasn't firmed up all day, which is also a bit worrisome. That H&S I mentioned earlier from the five-minute chart hasn't confirmed, and looks oddly shaped enough that it's keeping me on the sidelines as to whether it's valid or not.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 1:48:03 PM

Swing trade put alert taking two (2) of the General Motors GM Sep $30 puts (GM-UF) at the offer of $3.50. GM $31.92 +14.87% here. Premiums still high but have come down from earlier this morning. Looking rather short-term, but still selecting next option past June. Would look to exit on quick move (next couple days) back near $29.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 1:15:49 PM

Ten year bonds have recovered nearly all of their losses, with TNX down to a 0.7 bp gain at 4.196%. Updated daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 1:13:42 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 1:04:53 PM

Nymex crude is trading 50.35, +.85 , with QQQQ testing the 7200 tick SMA at 35.49. Bears want to see a lower high on this attempt, while bulls are looking for a strong break above the SMA to start a new short cycle upphase. Volume is quite low at 48.3M QQQQ shares traded so far, while the TRINQ at .81 continues to indicate neutral buying pressure.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 1:02:08 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 1:00:12 PM

The RLX reached a high of 409.92 today, just above the 4/19 high of 409.89 and just below the 410-ish psychological level. On intraday charts, there's significant resistance in this level, so this would be a natural place for a pullback. Those hoping for broader markets gains would hope the pullback would be modest, however, if one occurs, perhaps only to the 400-405 level. Could be an upside breakout, of course, but since the punch lower on Friday, the RLX hasn't really come back to test support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 12:56:56 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Note: Sold 1/2 of the SAP Sep $40 Puts and raised target and stop on the QQQQ

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 12:48:06 PM

I'm tapping my computer screen to see if it's stuck. There's a H&S-ish formation on the OEX's five-minute chart, ascending neckline at about 556.66, but there was no bearish price/MACD divergence as the head was produced, and I don't know if it's a valid formation. I'm watching it. If confirmed and if the downside target is met, that target would be near 553.41. I'm a bit wary of all developments this morning, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 12:39:17 PM

Both the 30 and 60 min oscillators for QQQQ are hanging on bearish divergent bearish kisses, but the short cycle oscillators have grown bottomy. Either the short cycle will begin trending in oversold, or another upside whipsaw will start the longer intraday cycles trending in overbought. The last option is a sideways chop for the next several hours. Pricewise, the bulls and the flats should be fine above 35.30, while the bears need a break below 35.25 to get the 30 min downphase moving. Upside channel resistance remains at 35.60-.62.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 12:33:13 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... for the QQQQ to $35.35 from $35.20. Revise bullish target to $35.82.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 12:28:44 PM

Here's the problem today: Actions that Keltner suggest will happen--both bearish and bullish--are not following through as Keltners suggest they will. Keltners might suggest a likely pullback, and it might not happen. Keltners might show a breakout in progress, and then it's erased. While nested Keltner channels aren't foolproof, any more than any trading tool, the other times I've seen this happen before have been during choppy, unpredictable sessions, so it makes me somewhat wary about trusting anything we're seeing today. If Keltner evidence was being ignored on only one direction--evidence of pullbacks never resulted in pullbacks, for example--I wouldn't be so wary, and it would be taken as a sign of trending action, but when it's occurring in both directions, well . . . .

The TRAN has now moved below the breakout level, but holds to the Keltner line currently at 3488.87, at least so far. The OEX has erased its breakout and does not hold to the analogous Keltner line, at 556.97 for the OEX, at least so far.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 12:22:46 PM

Hmmm... as the NASDAQ 5-day NH/NL ratio struggles to cross above its 10-day NH/NL ratio, the QQQQ $35.44 +0.39% has come within a frog's hair of my initial bullish target of $35.60.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 12:18:42 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 12:17:33 PM

Nymex crude +.90 at 50.40, off a high of 50.65. 4-day 50-tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 12:14:56 PM

The OEX is turning down from the rising regression channel and the 120-minute 130-ema, but it remains above the 120-minute 100-ema and above the 200-ema on the daily chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 12:06:37 PM

Sharp drop for QQQQ below triangle support and the 7200 tick SMA: Link . Channel support is at 35.27, but a downphase is due for the next several hours. A failure to bounce back above 37.48 should see the channel bottoms begin to decline after about 10 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 12:03:04 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 11:59:31 AM

Volume breadth has strengthened more on the NYSE than the Nasdaq, with advancing shares beating declining shares 4.24 on the NYSE and 2.44:1 on the Nasdaq. The TRIN is down to .6, TRINQ down to .83.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 11:56:52 AM

Dollar Index (dx00y) 84.02 -0.57% ... right where we left off late last night. Really no movement intra-day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 11:55:12 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 391.18 +1.58% ... DAILY R2 here. MONTHLY Pivot at 394.65 may be a "destiny" trade as this is only equity-based index not to have reached its MONTHLY Pivot at this point. QQQQ $35.52 +0.62% needs them to get above its WEEKLY R1 of $35.65. Will see how the NH/NL at NASDAQ is doing here in a minute.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 11:46:45 AM

Session high for QQQQ here at 35.56. The 30 and 60 min channel tops line up at 35.60, at the start of confluence resistance to 35.65. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 11:46:31 AM

The TRAN is attempting a breakout on the Keltner charts. The TRAN never broke down and tested mid-channel support as the Keltner charts had suggested they would do. The TRAN has an upside target of 3513.55 according to the Keltner charts, just below April's resistance at 3518.44.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 11:41:25 AM

While the SOX hasn't broken above the Keltner channel line currently at 390.33, it has risen high enough to erase that former bearish divergence. Without a breakout, that line should be resistance, but it's perhaps more likely now that, on any pullback, the SOX would find support at a Keltner line currently at 388.38 or at the stronger support at 386-387.00. Perhaps. The SOX has been building a bit of a broadening formation on top of the climb off Friday's low, so it's actions aren't completely trustworthy.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 11:34:06 AM

On a 15-minute Keltner chart, the OEX clings to the breakout level, but first resistance snakes just above it. If the OEX pulls back, bulls want to see the OEX maintain 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 556.81 to keep the smallest channel pointed higher.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 11:36:29 AM

SAP Aktiengesell (SAP) $40.16 +1.38% Link ... The bearish side of me on this once isn't convinced that everything's OK at SAP. But with today's 3-box reversal and holding in base, decided to reduce bearish position by 1/2.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 11:35:12 AM

Kronos (KRON) $39.75 -0.52% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 11:34:49 AM

Siebel Systems (SEBL) $9.20 -3.15% Link ...

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 11:29:22 AM

Volume breadth is strong today, 3.48 advancing NYSE shares for each declining, 2.21 advancing for each declining on the Nasdaq. The TRIN at .66 and TRINQ at .90 are both in neutral buying territory, but the TRINQ is closer to plain-neutral.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 11:22:31 AM

You know how statistics can be made to look any way you want them to look? Sometimes charts can, too. Here's an OEX one that looks all-out bullish: Link The OEX is obviously now above the 200-ema, but whether that will be sustained is still possibly questionable. Here's one that looks more worrisome, however, showing the OEX pausing at important resistance: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 11:21:00 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 11:15:39 AM

While the OEX pauses, Keltner resistance lines snake above it. However, this pause also allows Keltner support lines to play catch up. As long as the OEX is producing 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 556.50, it will keep its smallest Keltner channel pointed higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 11:10:13 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link , trying for a retest of the high. 30 min channel resistance is up to 35.65, while the triangle support at 35.41 held when tested. Until that level breaks, the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls- but the intraday cycles are due for a downphase.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 11:02:14 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 11:00:39 AM

The OEX still pauses just above a Keltner line that signals a breakout, with a new upside target of 560.20 if it can hold to the breakout level. This still looks a bit tentative as the OEX clings to the top of an ascending regression channel off the April low and to the 120-minute 100/130-ema's, with next Keltner support beneath the breakout level looking weaker, but it's holding. So far.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 10:50:09 AM

June crude oil up to a .175 loss at 49.325. I'd have expected much more downside on the bearish inventory report.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 10:50:07 AM

The OEX still pauses at the top of its ascending regression channel off the April low, at the 120-minute 100/130-ema's.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 10:46:03 AM

That move should have maxxed out the QQQQ short cycle upphase and, possibly, the 30 and 60 min as well. It remains bullish until price confirms however, with a break below rising 7200 tick SMA support at 35.35, which is at the rising triangle support on the chart posted a few minutes ago. 35.41 should provide strong support- a pullback to that line would be a retest of broken triangle resistance turned support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 10:44:46 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 361.52 +1.06% ... back above WEEKLY R2 here. Reason in my opinion to cancel bullish target in QQQQ at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 10:41:22 AM

Swing trade 1/2 put position stop alert on Sap Aktiengesell SAP Sep $40 Puts (SAP-UH) at $2.00 bid. Still long one (1), but lightening up on exposure here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 10:38:58 AM

Swing trade cancel bullish target for the QQQQ alert

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 10:38:20 AM

The OEX now tests those 120-minute 100/130-ema's from the chart I posted at 10:19. With 558 being a level of historical S/R and also being the location of the 130-ema and the 61.8% retracement of the drop off the April high, this would be a logical place for a pullback. Bulls do not want to see a drop that's as impulsive as the break above the 200-ema was. They want to see it look bull flag-ish or see a sideways to slightly down trading pattern. Remember that the OEX has also just hit the top of the ascending regression channel--bear flag--that marked the climb off the April low, so there's lots of conflicting evidence here. Breakout above the 200-ema, but test now of the important 120-minute 100/130-ema's and the top of a possible bear flag. I could argue both a bullish and a bearish case here, and I bet others could, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 10:34:00 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link with price testing upper 30 and 60 min channel resistance. Bulls should be pushing back- if no dip within the next couple of minutes, then we'er looking at a strong upside trending move to target next resistance at 35.65 confluence.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 10:33:14 AM

A bit troubling is the failure of the SOX to erase that Keltner-style bearish divergence just yet. The SOX still has not touched the Keltner line currently at 390.13.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 10:32:59 AM

Swing trade bearish put set stop alert ... I'm going to set a stop on 1/2 of the Sap Aktiengesell SAP Sep $40 Puts (SAP-UH) at $2.00. Currently bid/ask $2.05 x $2.15.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 10:32:46 AM

Nymex crude down .30 at 49.20 here. Current low 49.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 10:32:27 AM

Gasoline inventories rose 2.2M barrels v. 875K exp.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 10:32:19 AM

And there's the OEX breakout above the 200-ema. Bulls want to see a pullback and successful retest. (Hope they get it.)

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 10:32:07 AM

Crude oil inventories rose 2.6M barrels vs. +1.25M exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 10:30:34 AM

Session low for oil. Data due now.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 10:25:07 AM

Weekly energy data due out any minute now.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 10:24:20 AM

QQQQ $35.35 +0.14% .... each kiss of DAILY Pivot finds buyers

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 10:23:53 AM

Next Keltner resistance on the OEX's 15-minute chart is at 556.85-557.05, but we already know to watch that level.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 10:23:43 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 358.92 +0.33% ... back above WEEKLY R1.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 10:21:45 AM

Session high for Nymex crude here at 50, +.50.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 10:19:51 AM

I also find it helpful to watch the OEX on a 120-minute chart. Here's a 120-minute chart with the 21/100/130-ema's: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 10:18:47 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link , testing rising 7200 tick SMA support at 35.27. 30 and 60 min channel resistance are up to 35.45, support up to 35.16 for the 30 min cycle. The intraday cycles are still ambiguous, but resolving their uncertainty to the upside. Bulls want to see a break of the premarket high above 35.40 for confirmation.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 10:15:25 AM

Most Actives ... SPY $116.67 +0.06%, CSCO $17.45 +0.8%, QQQQ $35.33 +0.05%, GM $31.00 +11.63%, MSFT $25.15 -0.82%, ERTS $48.22 -8.88%, SIRI $5.16 +1.97%, JDSU $1.38 -1.42%, INTC $23.74 -0.08%, F $10.05 +6.23%

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 10:15:17 AM

The SOX still has not erased that Keltner-style bearish divergence, and now a test of mid-line support appears to be in the works, with that support near 386-386.70.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 10:13:38 AM

Since mid-April, selling rallies up to the OEX's 200-sma and -ema has been a good idea. Is it today? I'm not certain. Like Keene, I'm watching for impulsive action either direction (breaking out above the 200-ema or rolling over beneath it) and then a retest as a guideline. Some of those prior rollovers have come when the advdec line was nothing short of exuberant, so we can't trust that strength this morning in the advdec line completely.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 10:11:00 AM

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 10:09:28 AM

I'm just noticing that this week is the first time the OEX has approached the 30-sma since early April, with that other approach and failure to push above the 30-sma having occurred just prior to the April drop. Bulls certainly need to see a push above and close above that 30-sma, currently at 556.32. The 200-ema is above that, at 556.91, and the OEX is currently at 555.78 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 10:09:12 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 10:07:12 AM

The OEX found support at the midline of the rising regression channel depicted on the chart linked to my 9:58 post and has risen to the top of that channel again, pulling back a little as I type. Ten-minute CCI is not participating in the rise on the OEX, however, perhaps a troublesome sign or perhaps just a sign of hesitation as the OEX consolidates between the 200-ema and 200-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 10:05:45 AM

No weakness for gold so far, up 2.20 at 430 but so far showing a lower high at 431.20- since it broke, the 432-433 level has yet to be seriously challenged. HUI and XAU are up, +1.3% at 183.03 and +1.12% at 85.52 respectively. Crude oil is up .20 at 49.70, with 25 minutes until the weekly inventory data.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 10:02:39 AM

The SOX has not yet managed to erase that Keltner-style bearish divergence on its 15-minute chart. I'm writing a Traders Corner article on Keltner-style divergences for this weekend's newsletter, if you'd like to see some examples.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 10:02:10 AM

Ten year notes have recovered off their lows, with TNX down to a 1.8 bp gain at 4.207%. So far, the descending daily trendline has held, as has QQQQ's 35.25 support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 10:01:20 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 10:00:58 AM

ISM Services 61.7 vs 61.0 exp.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 9:58:43 AM

If in a bearish play, the OEX 552-553 level is an obvious level at which to protect profits, if reached: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 9:57:17 AM

The Fed has rolled over the 4.5B expiring repo with a new 4.5B overnight repo, no net change for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 9:57:04 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 356.80 -0.25%

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 9:56:32 AM

Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH) $133.73 -0.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 9:54:14 AM

VIX.X 14.85 ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 14.12, 14.32, Piv= 14.82, 15.02, 15.52. Note: I used yesterday afternoon's highs and lows to derive these levels. I believe there was an error early yesterday morning and skews QCharts' pivot levels.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 9:52:16 AM

The TRAN's climb off yesterday's low looks bear flag-ish and the TRAN has so far not been able to break above the resistance level at 3467 on 15-minute closes. It looks vulnerable to at least a small pullback until and unless it can do that.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 9:50:52 AM

The OEX rolls back down to the 200-sma, testing it for support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 9:50:02 AM

Google (GOOG) $227.75 +0.66% Link ... achieves bullish vertical count.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 9:48:42 AM

The 30-sma is stopping the OEX, so far, before it can ever reach the 200-ema, as the markets enter the first retracement period of the day. The OEX isn't even pulling back to first Keltner support yet, however, currently at 553.64-554.40, much less deeper support at 552.20-552.60, so there's been no opportunity to assess how it handles that support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 9:48:24 AM

United Online (UNTD) $11.00 +24.15% ... upgrade at Piper Jaffray after meeting Q1 estimates.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 9:46:56 AM

Jupitermedia (JUPM) $15.55 +18.79% ... jumps on stronger-than forecasted earnings.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 9:46:45 AM

The SOX hasn't quite erased that Keltner-style bearish divergence. Those hoping for more gains really need to see it touch that Keltner line currently at 389.72 to erase that bearish divergence. That doesn't mean that it will have broken out, but erasing that bearish divergence would at least be a hopeful sign. Otherwise, bears might be encouraged.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 9:46:21 AM

15 minutes until ISM services, est. 61, prior 63.1. As well, we await the Fed's announcement as to the disposition of its expiring 4.5B overnight repo.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 9:44:04 AM

The OEX's Keltner lines still haven't settled down enough from the post-FOMC action to give clear clues, but the OEX heads up to test resistance that usually contains it on 15-minute closes, with that resistance currently at 556.80, near the 200-ema. That resistance was turned higher by the post-FOMC action, however, so that although Keltner lines converge there, it doesn't look as strong as it would be if the lines were flat or turned down. As was suggested pre-open this morning, the OEX is rising to test the 200-ema, but the action after that is uncertain. If inclined to jump in one way or the other this morning, be ready to jump right back out if proven wrong.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 9:39:20 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link , bouncing from 35.25 support.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 9:39:27 AM

Between the 200-sma and -ema: a familiar place for the OEX over the last couple of months. From mid-March to mid-April, this was a place good for bounces. Since then, it's been a place good for rollovers. Will it be today? The advdec line currently doesn't support such a thesis, but let's see what happens.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 9:38:46 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 9:37:17 AM

The SOX has been showing some Keltner-style bearish divergence on each swing high on its 15-minute chart this week. If that's to continue, the SOX should cap gains very soon, with the SOX currently at 388.25 as I type. A touch of the Keltner line currently at 389.67 will erase that Keltner-style bearish divergence.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 9:33:59 AM

The TRAN rises for another test of its linked 200-sma and -ema's, and perhaps of 3500, but I won't consider the TRAN as having confirmed an upside break until it moves above the April high of 3518.44.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 9:32:49 AM

Ten year treasury yields are up 3.2 bps at 4.221%, testing the descending resistance line on the daily chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 9:32:02 AM

For reference, the OEX's 200-ema is at 556.91. If in bullish positions, be particularly careful at that level. If looking for a new bearish position, watch that level, too, but be really, really careful about suppositions.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 9:30:50 AM

OEX opens near the flat-line level, at the 200-sma. Looking to see if there's follow-through to yesterday's close, suggesting another test of the 200-ema.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 9:30:52 AM

Renovis (RNVS) $6.79 ... Atop this morning's most actives and jumping to $14.69 after it and AstraZeneca (AZN) said first analysis from a trial of Cerovive (a treatment for stroke) showed promise.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 9:26:28 AM

QQQQ $35.30 ... $35.29 pre-market

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 9:24:17 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $102.89 Link ... up 11 cents at $103.00

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 9:22:42 AM

General Motors (GM) $27.77 ... jumping to $30.85 and #2 in pre-market trade volume on news that Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. is offering to pay about $870 million for a nearly 5% stake in the worlds largest automaker.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 9:16:01 AM

QQQQ's intraday cycles were scrambled by the Crazy Ivan at the close. The oscillators are stalled in a sideways configuration just below overbought territory, and the channels are mixed in a wide range. Both 30 and 60 min channel support is at 35.00, while resistance is at 35.40 for the 30 min channel and at 35.45 for the 60. A short cycle upphase is in progress, and will continue above 35.25. Below 35.20, the 30 min cycle would shift to a negative bias. The daily cycle remains in what so far has proven to be a weak upphase.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 9:17:22 AM

My, oh my, but there was some strange post-Fed decision action yesterday. Here's a chart with key resistance levels, showing how the OEX acted with respect to those levels: Link Bottom line, the OEX has not yet been successful in creating an upside breakout. Will it be successful today?

We know the OEX levels to watch if the OEX makes another attempt. I've been saying for weeks that it's the 200-ema and not the -sma that will be most important in identifying a breakout level, and yesterday's action just corroborated my belief in that theory. Predictably, the post-Fed action scrambled the 15-minute Keltner channels and scrambled more traditional oscillators, too, so that they're not giving strong information about what to expect. The daily chart suggests that as long as the OEX is bouncing from a daily Keltner line currently at 552.47 on daily closes, it still has a chance of moving up toward 559-560, but it doesn't suggest whether the OEX will continue to bounce, and yesterday's doji questions the strength of the OEX. Futures have risen since my early-morning post-except for the NQ-but the gains are modest. Yesterday's close suggested that the OEX might again test the 200-ema as long as 15-minute closes continue to be above a Keltner line currently at 553.82. However, yesterday's closing action and setting of that target is a bit suspect, given in "inadvertent" omission of that Fed statement about inflation, and much consideration has been given to that action overnight. Let's see if the upside target holds and what happens this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2005 9:15:13 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $2.82 and set for program selling at $-0.38.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 9:08:06 AM

Here:

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Long-term Treasury prices tumbled, sending yields higher, early Wednesday fter the U.S. Treasury confirmed market suspicions that it is considering reinstituting the 30-year bond. A decision will be announced on Aug. 3 at the August quarterly refunding. The Treasury stopped issuing the bond in October 2001 when the government was projecting surpluses that would eventually eliminate government debt.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 9:07:03 AM

Bonds have done a fast, sharp reversal, TNX now up 3.6 bps to 4.225%. I'm hearing a rumor circulating to the effect that the Treasury is considering reselling 30 year bonds, but I have not yet found confirmation.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 8:48:43 AM

Headline:

ECB TRICHET: OIL PRICES GAIN CALLS FOR VIGILANCE

Euro futures are +.70% at 1.2969 here. Crude oil +.05 at 49.55.

Tab Gilles : 5/4/2005 8:27:15 AM

Nasdaq Summation $NASI I use the weekly chart looking for reversal points. On this chart you can see we got a reversal signal this week. Now at what level? Below or at -800 carries more weight than higher level reversal signaling a BUY. And vice versa on SELL signal reversals. But the importantance is on reversal. As a confirmation I have on the bottom of the chart the weekly $NAHL- high/lows w/ a 10-wema. What this chart is signaling is that the Nasdaq is a BUY at current levels. Now could it go lower...sure, this is why you want a partial entry and to add as the Nasdaq rises and you get more confirmations. Link

One confirmation tool I use is the $NASI with a SAR setting as in this chart Link ....here's the $NYSI... Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 8:25:51 AM

ZN bond futures have edged off their earlier high, but are still well in the green, with ten year note yields now quoted -1.8 bps at 4.171%, within the lower end of yesterday's range.

On the daily chart, the descending trendline has yet to be seriously challenged, and the stochastic buy signal is on the verge of a downside whipsaw. A move below 4.14%-.15% would probably be sufficient to close the bull trap on the TNX. Daily chart at this Link

Tab Gilles : 5/4/2005 8:14:05 AM

What a day yesterday was! I spent last night going over a list of charts I track and trying to make since of what direction this market is going to take until the fed meets again in 2 months. After all "Sell in May and go away" is upon us. I track the Euro/USD in realtion to the gold market. Since '02 the Euro has strengthened or has the Dollar weakened? Well, inflation has run ahead of interest rates on dollar demoninated assets since '02. Investors have not wanted to buy bonds because rates trailed inflation, although both were at historical low levels, you were still losing money. Thus US Dollar assets fell making the dollar a liability rather than an asset.

Now what the Fed is trying to do is to get those rates above the inflation rate. That in turn would rally the dollar, and in turn help our budget deficit, now over $7 trillion. I was looking for the Fed to end measured pace and for inflation to ease. Since the Fed's surprise market closing statement - Longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained- I'd say that inflation is leveling and this would give the Fed a chance to raise rate above inflation. BUT....we have the next 2 months of waiting and speculation to go thru first. So, watch the Dollar and watch the Euro/USD trend, will the dollar recover?

One last thought.... here's a chart showing a direct inverse realtion with the dollar and oil, $USD-$WTIC. Now look at the lag they have to interest rates, in this chart 10 year note. Link

Link Link Link Link Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 7:49:18 AM

As expected, the ECB left rates unchanged.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/4/2005 7:34:35 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1164.5, NQ 1435.5, YM 10272 and QQQQ flat at 35.30. Gold is up 2.70 to 430.5, silver +.089 to 6.975, ten year notes +7/32 to 111 19/32 and crude oil is flat at 49.45.

We await ISM Services at 10AM, est. 61, prior 63.1.

Linda Piazza : 5/4/2005 6:57:47 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei was closed again last night, as was China's Shanghai Composite. Most other Asian markets climbed. European markets trade hesitantly ahead of an ECB rate hike decision. Our futures are modestly lower. As of 6:25 EST, gold was up $2.80, and crude, unchanged at $49.50. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Japanese and Chinese markets were closed again last night. Car manufacturers Toyota Motor Corporation, Honda Motor Company and Nissan Motor Company received good news yesterday when figures on U.S. market share were released. Asian manufacturers captured 37.5% of new cars and trucks sold in the U.S. in April, a record share. Hyundai Motor Company was also one of those Asian car manufacturers capturing market share. Mazda and Subaru sales also increased.

Most Asian markets climbed. The Taiwan Weighted dropped 0.25%, but South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.70%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.57%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.37%.

Most European markets decline as investors await an ECB rate decision. Expectations are that the ECB will hold rates steady. March's eurozone retail sales increased 0.3% over February's numbers with February's revised down to a 0.2% rise from January's. The number was in line with expectations and somewhat reassuring in its insight into consumer spending.

As had been true in Asia, European car manufacturers reacted to yesterday's U.S. sales figures, with many car manufacturers dropping. DaimlerChrysler did, too, although its U.S. sales rose in April, but a newspaper report yesterday noted that the company would close RAM/Dakota trucks for a period this summer to reduce inventories. Reporting companies included Credit Suisse Group, with the stock staying steady after the bank included a statement that the market activity could drop in the next quarter but improve in the second half of the year; British American Tobacco, rising after its report; oil refiner Total, gaining after it beat net profit expectations; and French construction and materials group Lafarge SA, gaining after it included a statement about favorable market conditions in its earnings report. Anglo Irish Bank soared after its earnings report and German insurer Allianz rose after its report.

In other action, J.P. Morgan upgraded France Telecom to a neutral rating and Deutsche Bank trimmed UBS's rating to a hold rating. Germany's Fresenius Medical Care announced an agreement with Renal Care Group to buy the U.S. company for cash.

As of 6:47 EST, the FTSE 100 had dropped 4.30 points or 0.09%, to trade at 4,856.90. The CAC 40 was still positive, up 1.14 points or 0.03%, at 3,957.07. The DAX had fallen 13.73 points or 0.32%, to 4,231.81.

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