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Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 11:58:26 PM

ExxonMobil / June Crude ... 60-minute interval chart comparisons with QCharts' WEEKLY Pivots. Crude (upper) has our 38.2% retracement on it. I don't KNOW if Crude $51.66-$51.96 is equivalent to XOM $58.10, and most likely it isn't. We can perhaps see similarity between Oil and XOM. Often times, the stock will lead the move in the commodity. Comparison chart at this Link Note: XOM's hourly bars offset from Crude oil futures due to different times of floor trade open and close. XOM opens earlier and closes later that Crude Oil futures floor trade. Note: If your child want to grow up to be a trader, tell them to trade commodity futures. Shorter workday.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 11:37:05 PM

June Crude (cl05m) up $0.47 at $51.30. Ugh! WEEKLY Pivot at $51.66. XOM's WEEKLY Pivot at $57.85.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 11:33:30 PM

e-mini S&P (es05m) up a bone, or +1.00 at 1,176.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 11:32:53 PM

I could keep going and going, but I've got to get some sleep. So much to see, but so little time.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 11:30:18 PM

IBM $75.50 -2.04% .... WEEKLY Pivots ... $72.72, $74.53, Piv= $75.85, 77.65, 78.98. So far this week, IBM has traded a high of $78.11 (Thursday's open) and $75.33 (today's last hour of trade). Get the feeling this was a James Cramer "sold to you" on the gap above WEEKLY R1? Whack!

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 11:26:13 PM

I don't know if a trader is trading IBM from 04/20 question, but you'll probably want to utilize the DDX.X observation too. While IBM is not a component of the DDX.X, you'll remember that it was IBM's reverse head/shoulder pattern late last year, that turned us onto the much BIGGER reverse h/s in the DDX.X. Storage baby!

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 11:21:10 PM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.01 and set for program selling at $-0.30. According to HL Camp, sell programs had the Dow dropping 87 points in 24 minutes. Dow stocks hit the hardest were GM, VZ, IBM and HON. Dow components at Thursday's close with special notes at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 11:09:11 PM

Now if I only had 10 eyeballs to monitor 10 different positions like this. That's what computers are for. Just program them to try and keep weighting matched with sector/index. HUMAN intervention that DISAGREES with what the computers are doing will creat the imbalance, which will have that stock OUTPERFORMING the sectors (up or down). We can perhaps see how BULLS did try to have SNDK buck the trend notably from 04/18-04/25, but it looks like the SECTOR weakness was simply too much and SNDK "cracked." IF there's further weakness coming for SNDK, then I think the DDX.X needs to crack 96.33, which should have SNDK cracking to $22.90. WEEKLY Pivots key tomorrow. Today's drop down in the DDX.X was when GM hit the skids and we get the broad blanket weakness. Remember that sell program premium? It was a "doozy!"

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 10:57:55 PM

SNDK / DDX.X comparison charts on 60-minute interval and encompasses time from put to current. QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels overlaid at this Link . SNDK looking a little stronger than the index itself, so SNDK bear may need further sector weakness. A DDX.X option trader monitors SNDK for further strength/weakness.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 10:30:14 PM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 98.22 -1.88% ... QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot levels for this week are, or have been .... 93.47, 96.33, Piv = 100.85, 103.71, 108.23. With one day left in the week, the DDX has traded a high of ... 100.84 and a low of 97.26. SanDisk (SNDK) $24.04 -1.06% ... QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot levels for this week are, or have been .... $22.10, $22.90, Piv= $24.35, $25.14, $26.59. With one day left in the week, SNDK has traded a high of ..... $24.41 and a low of $23.64.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 10:18:57 PM

Pivot Matrix for Friday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 10:02:55 PM

WEEKLY Pivot Matrix ... here's how the majors traded within their WEEKLY Pivots in early April 2004 after the majors traded their MONTHLY S2s. Link Don't forget your point and figure chart bullish % readings to assess field position and internal strength/weakness!

OI Technical Staff : 5/5/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 9:33:11 PM

Monthly Pivot Matrix from March-June 2004 when the NDX/QQQQ DID trade their MONTHLY R1s in April after having traded MONTHLY S2 in March. As we study/follow the matrix, it appears this will happen after a BIG monthly range where the % of range traded is abnormally high. This will happen in times of "fear." Fear defined: Securities pricing is, in every sense, a psychological phenomenon that arises from the interaction of human beings with fear. Why not greed and fear as the equation is usually stated? Because greed is simply fear of not having enough. - John Bollinger March-June 2004 MONTHLY Pivot Matrix at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 9:30:43 PM

Monthly Pivot Matrix from March-June 2004 when the NDX/QQQQ DID trade their MONTHLY R1s in April after having traded MONTHLY S2 in March. As we study/follow the matrix, it appears this will happen after a BIG monthly range where the % of range traded is abnormally high. This will happen in times of "fear." Fear defined: Securities pricing is, in every sense, a psychological phenomenon that arises from the interaction of human beings with fear. Why not greed and fear as the equation is usually stated? Because greed is simply fear of not having enough. - John Bollinger

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 9:09:00 PM

If the disk drives "erupt" to the upside, and don't "pop and drop," or head lower from the open .... I'm thinking the remaining SNDK put gets stopped out. DDX has a round number of 100 itself. Yesterday, SNDK traded a session high of $24.41.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 9:03:42 PM

Could be a good sector to monitor tomorrow. You've seen this one before and will be used for decision on SanDisk (SNDK) Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 8:44:30 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link ... Keene's been looking for a "pop and drop" for a couple of days now. He might get it tomorrow. Note the "round number" resistance today. Then some round number support in the DIA. Volumes were on the light side, even with another "GM session." QQQQ bear has got to be saying .... "they'll sell $36.00." I thought that from the long side in our swing trade long, but things kept pointing higher as the indices traded within the pivots so I kept canceling upside targets and followed with trailing stop. Keene's "pop and drop" may take place when the QQQQ bear that has been looking for $36.00 to hold gets broken. When it doesn't, that might be the "I can't take it any more." That's when the computers, which I think will sell below the MONTHLY R1s get their volume, sell the strength, and Keene gets his reversal.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 7:56:20 PM

Closing Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 7:54:15 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 7:51:54 PM

Saturday Night Live .... there's a skit in the works on that one.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 7:48:19 PM

General Motors ... threatens legal action against U.S. importers of "Chery" cars. Will sue claiming brand name too similar to Chevy.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 7:45:39 PM

e-mini S&P (es05m) 1,174.50 are down 0.50. (19:34:47)

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 7:44:58 PM

Global ... UK exit polls indicate Prime Minister Blari winning 3rd term.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 7:43:02 PM

Petroleum Development (PETD) $26.60 +0.30% ... reports Q1 EPS of $0.80 vs. $0.52 year ago. Revenues came in at $83.4 million vs. $71 million.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 7:40:19 PM

Global ... Korea's March Service Sector Output +1.6% and reversing 0.5% decline in February.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 7:38:15 PM

Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) $16.97 +7.40% ... jumps to $19.40 in extended session. Sees Q4 above views.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 7:30:31 PM

Air Quality ... Business Wire- Port of Los Angeles connects air quality technology suppliers with potential clients. $20 million in project funding available for air quality improvement projects.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 7:19:06 PM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $32.85 +27.07% ... might give back some gains tomorrow.... $32.80 last tick in extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 7:17:40 PM

Mittal Steel (MT) $25.30 +1.84% ... company announces it will idle its H-3 blast furnace in East Chicago. Cites inventory adjustment in markets.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 7:15:19 PM

SeaChange Intl. (SEAC) $10.33 -1.24% ... $9.25-$8.80 after company said it now sees Q1 loss. Cutting revenue view.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 7:10:19 PM

Moofer alert ... Brazil's Agriculture Minister suspends beef exports to U.S. Fact: Dow Jones - In 2004, Brazil sold 55,400 metric tons of beef to the U.S., valued at $197.2 million.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 7:05:19 PM

Carrier Access (CACS) $5.01 -0.19% ... gets NASDAQ deficiency notice related to late filing for its 10-K. Company saying it will request appeal hearing.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 7:01:23 PM

Solomon Bros. 2008 Worldwide Dollar Govt. Trust (NYSE:SBG) $11.03 +0.27% ... announces dividend of $0.073 per share in June from short-term capital gains and a dividend of $0.073 from ordinary income for the months of July and August. June goes ex on 06/10, record 06/14, payable on 06/24.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 6:41:00 PM

Salomon Bros. High Income (HIX) $11.16 -1.06% ... announces dividend of $0.08 per share for months June, July, August. June goes ex on 05/04, record is 06/10 and payable 06/14. At $11.16, SEC yield at 0.8602%. Press release at this Link Note: Reducing monthly dividend from $0.095 due to lower market rates and large volume of debt redemptions in junk market.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 6:33:29 PM

I've never eaten at a Texas Roadhouse either James. Can't get in the place.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 6:29:23 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $31.80 +0.50% ... quiet at $31.74

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 6:28:51 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $24.04 -1.06% ... $24.03 extended and quiet trade.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 6:24:43 PM

Intel (INTC) $24.04 -1.06% ... unchanged in extended session. President Paul Otellini saying the company is "well on its way for a third year in a row of double-digit revenue growth." Continues to invest in PC business.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 6:27:49 PM

Pixar (PIXR) $46.27 -0.89% ... stock jumps to $48.50 on earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 5:45:25 PM

Junk Bond outflows ... Dow Jones - Junk bond funds report $399.9 million outflow last week.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 5:38:31 PM

JP Morgan (JPM) $35.90 ... West Virginia Attorney General sues company and other in fund industry.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 5:09:01 PM

CNBC ... this conversation sounds a bit like my wonderment earlier today regarding Kerkorian's strategy doesn't it? (see 02:33:11)

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 5:03:43 PM

Humph ... just for grins I wondered "why does GM close $30.86. Take a retracement from yesterday's close to Tuesday's close, which would represent the "realization" trade. If 0% is $32.80, then 38.2% is $30.88. In a way, it already looks as if somebody (probably computers) has already dissected the pie. I'm going to add this one to the retracement shown earlier today and see if we come up with any meaningful "zones."

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 4:28:46 PM

GM ... 675,000 blocked at $30.86 (16:27:56)

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 4:27:55 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Today's activity ... swing trade shorted 1/2 position in the underlying shares of ExxonMobil (XOM) at the bid of $57.21. Oil was bouncing around what I feel is a critical near-term support level, but then rallied to its settlement.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 4:20:11 PM

Nothing as far as a b/s premium into the 04:15 closes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 3:56:16 PM

I'm expecting a sell program premium toward the close. GM $30.86

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 3:54:18 PM

On many indices, Keltner resistance has softened and support strengthened. That includes the $BIX, with support now near 360.70 and then stronger from 358.20-359.40. However, one level of Keltner resistance is just under the day's high, with that resistance near 363.89, and there's a chance that could stop the BIX at a slightly lower high on any bounce attempts. As with the OEX, we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see for sure.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 3:49:06 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) $51.02 here (30-min delayed). WEEKLY Pivot $51.66.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 3:45:45 PM

The buying surge was met immediately with sellers against yesterday's highs. The daily cycle upphase remains entirely unperturbed by today's light correction, with even a higher high from yesterday. The 30 min cycle downphase is stalling but has not yet reversed, while the 60 min downphase continues, however weakly. This looks like a bullish picture overall, with the only bearish doubt as to whether the 60 min cycle can do more damage from here. But even then, so long as today's low doesn't get broken and if so, yesterday's low holds, the daily cycle bulls will remain in control. Today's light volume pullback so far looks quite benign for QQQQ.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 3:44:24 PM

The OEX hit first Keltner resistance and stopped. Resistance is at 560.05, 561.39, and more significant resistance, at 563.11. If the OEX can't get above the resistance line currently at 561.39 on 15-minute closes, it may be beginning to show some weakness, Keltner-wise, but we may have to wait until tomorrow to be sure unless the OEX should just roll down and confirm that H&S in the next few minutes. I still don't think this is the best place for an OEX options long play or maybe any play--see my 3:27 post.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 3:43:12 PM

ExxonMobil (XOM) $57.74 +0.89% ... just tested WEEKLY Pivot of $57.85 and morning 5-minute "doji" intra-day high. Doesn't look as if anyone is worried about a crude oil settle below $49.41 at this point. Today's swing trade short 1/2 bearish position is TARGET $55 and STOP $58.10. I typed in the target as stop in MM profile update.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 3:38:09 PM

Snapshot of Beetle's Balanced where LQD looks to be holding up just fine today. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 3:37:24 PM

QQQQ breaks sharply above 7200 tick SMA resistance, running back to yesterday's high at current descending 30 min channel resistance: Link . If these gains hold for about 10-15 minutes, look for an early abort to the 30 min cycle downphase.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 3:37:15 PM

Just did not trust that H&S on the OEX, not with the 200-ema lurking just below.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 3:33:59 PM

AG Edwards (AGE) $39.80 -1.7% ... off their lows of $39.67, but also see 12:35-12:40 quick drop from $40.40.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 3:32:11 PM

Jeffries (JEF) $36.08 -1.79% ... session lows here. Stock got hit "the hardest" of those just reviewed at 12:35-12:40. I don't know what their inventory/exposure to GM or F is.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 3:30:44 PM

The GM news hit the wires at about 12:35-12:40

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 3:29:42 PM

Brokers today .... JEF -1.74%, AGE -1.63%, ET -1.43%, GS -0.79%, MER -0.53% ... SCH +0.77%, LEH +0.32%, BSC +0.12%

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 3:29:16 PM

QQQQ has advanced with that pickup in volume, testing the 7200 tick SMA at 35.70 but not breaking it. Total volume remains very light and should come in below yesterday's light 90.9M shares. Updated chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 3:27:05 PM

I squeezed this chart down to eliminate all the old annotations (don't want to delete them just yet). I wanted to show that the OEX has entered this S/R zone that been carried forward from the monthly chart, to me looking important for many years. I've shown this chart in its entirety for many months now, so this zone isn't a new one that I've marked, but look at how the OEX tends to act within it (two horizontal blue lines): Link The OEX just tends to chop around once it's moved into this zone, so I wouldn't be surprised to see days or even weeks of such chop now that the OEX has moved back in that zone.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 3:24:09 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) opens back up 2 cents after settling up $0.70 at $50.83 in Thursday's session. Friday's settlement is cited as being "most important," as some believe it is a near-term sign of willing to go home long, or short.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 3:22:29 PM

The OEX is above the five-minute 21-ema for the first time since it started this afternoon's steep decline, but it's still dealing with the 100-ema. If it's successful in climbing, it will have confirmed a higher low on the five-minute chart and we may see that retest of the day's high, with Keltner resistance at 559.63 and 561.24.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 3:16:14 PM

Crude oil has just reopened and continued its upside run, sitting on a high at 51.00.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 3:13:55 PM

The BIX is still finding resistance at the five-minute 21-ema, but the TRAN, another indicator index, is pushing above the 21/100/130-ema's, still needing a confirming move above 3528.23, with the TRAN at 3527.74 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 3:12:56 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 3:12:20 PM

QQQQ bounces back to the pennant apex here after finding support above the previous 35.53 low. This is looking like a slow-motion fumble for the 30 and 60 min cycle bears, and confirmation for the daily cycle bulls. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 3:12:04 PM

The OEX rises again to test the five-minute 21/100/130-ema's. If it's successful in climbing above them, it has a chance at invalidating the H&S. It hasn't done that yet, but I've been a bit suspicious of this H&S with the 200-ema just below. Just can't quite make myself believe that bulls will just give up so quickly. However, that's nothing but a gut reaction feeling. Nothing a bit scientific about it.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 3:05:19 PM

The cash bond market has closed, with TNX -2.4 bps at 4.162%, below the descending resistance line: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 3:04:18 PM

The SOX is now at--well, nearly--a 38.2% retracement of the rally off Tuesday's low. This would be a natural place for a bounce if it's going to show strength, especially as it drifts down to retest the day's low. That retracement is about at the day's low of 392.69, with the SOX at 393.19 as I type. No bounce suggests a decline to the 50% retracement at about 390.83 and mid-line Keltner channel support at 389.87-390.36.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 3:03:30 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link ... the dollar has been rather firm.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 3:00:13 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link ... had to rebuild after problems this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 2:54:54 PM

Plot thickens here .... GM $30.80. What's Kerkorian going to do?

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 2:54:24 PM

Oil has whipped back higher again. Still within the day's range after intra-day kisses of $49.50. Is this the "hedge" commodity?

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 2:50:44 PM

QQQQ has edged through the lower pennant support line, but it did so on light volume with little volume, making it dubious as a breakdown. Barring a flush from here, the 30 and 60 min cycle downphase are looking very corrective so far, and potentially very bullish for the next upphase that replaces them. Meanwhile, bonds are taking a bounce, TNX back down to a 2.8 bp loss at 4.162%.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 2:52:20 PM

The OEX drifts down toward the neckline of that potential H&S shown on the chart linked to my 2:39 post, but remember the 200-ema at 556.92, in the way. Don't quite trust this yet, but that's just a gut-reaction thing, as I'm thinking that bulls can't give up quite so easily, can they? I don't think this is a good long entry opportunity for OEX options. Calls lose premium more rapidly than puts when they go OTM. If the OEX should end the day anywhere near where it is, it will have created a tweezer-top type reversal signal.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 2:49:57 PM

GM Option Chain just a screen capture similar to yesterday's. Tried to get $31.00 on the GM underlying. Link Please note: QCharts' bid/ask option chain isn't "the best" and may not reflect actual market prices. I use my Ameritrade Level II when quoting bid/ask for options.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 2:39:55 PM

A view of the OEX's potential H&S, with the resistance offered by the five-minute 21/100/130-ema's: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 2:38:03 PM

Nymex crude closed +.70 or 1.4% at 50.825 on a sharp run into the close. 50-tick chart for this week at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 2:34:06 PM

QQQQ is back into the pennant, but the apex is very near. Price could simply drift sideways through it, especially in light of the thin volume (now 61.8M shares traded). Intraday chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 2:31:50 PM

I'm looking for a possible equal or higher low on the OEX and another bounce attempt. So far, the shape of the bounce is not encouraging to bulls wanting a new entry.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 2:33:11 PM

OK ... with a little egg on my face, but makes it that much more interesting. Kerkorian's tender offer yesterday was $31.00 per share. Here we are at $31.00 and perhaps why DAILY S1 calculates into the mix of things. Hmmmm.... if YOU were Kerkorian and wanted to really pressure management with YOUR views, what might you do now that the debt is downgraded to "junk?" Has Kerkorian outsmarted the Street again? Why didn't he pick up the stock BEFORE making the $31 offer public? Possible Answer: If Kerkorian wants to win further shareholder support he might start dropping some hints that with the paper now "junk," he might actually have to re-think his $31.00 offer. Maybe.... $30, or $29? A long-term shareholder (maybe even some workers nearing retirement) might start looking at management and the board. Did you ever see the movie "Wall Street?"

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 2:27:06 PM

Volume breadth remains lightly negative, declining shares outnumbering advancing shares 1.28:1 on the NYSE and the Nasdaq. The TRIN is up at 1.51, TRINQ showing only neutral pressure at .98.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 2:25:02 PM

Five-minute 21/100/130-ema's still holding as resistance on the OEX.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 2:24:42 PM

QQQQ's poking its head out of the pennant top, with 7200 tick SMA resistance above at 35.77.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 2:20:17 PM

This climb doesn't look all that different than yesterday's, beginning at about noon, and the OEX continued climbing then, but the decline today that preceded the current bounce attempt was steeper. So far, the five-minute 21-ema that had been support is now resistance. The five-minute 21/100/130-ema's are at 558.37, 558.86, and 558.51, respectively.

Remember that I mentioned a possible H&S on top of the OEX's 15-minute chart? This bounce and flattening could be part of the right-shoulder-building exercise. A break too much above the five-minute 100-ema would tend to invalidate that formation unless it was quickly reversed while a break through the neckline, at just a hair above 556, would confirm it.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 2:16:00 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 2:08:27 PM

QQQQ intraday update at this Link with what looks to be a pennant forming off the lows. If so, then this is usually a continuation pattern, which in this case would set up a "b" distribution to be followed by lower lows on a break of 35.60. 30 min channel support is down to 35.40. What is troublesome is the lack of price traction all day, in what should have been prime time for intraday cycle bears. If this has all been shallow/corrective, then an upside break could propel QQQQ to new highs.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 2:07:40 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 2:05:40 PM

The OEX balances at the bottom of its ascending regression channel from this week. A decline below the Keltner support from 555.61-555.92 and 15-minute close below it would set up a potential downside target of 549.11.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 2:02:35 PM

"Crazy" how that DAILY S1 serves up support isn't it? GM $31.13

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:58:03 PM

The GM-UF are $4.00 x $4.10

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 1:57:52 PM

Potential H&S forming on top of the OEX's 15-minute chart. The neckline is problematic, because it's at about 556.40, under the 200-ema but still above the 200-sma. I still believe the 200-ema is at least as important recently at the 200-sma, but would still expect some support, however, slight or strong, at the 200-sma. Of course, the OEX could always bounce from the neckline area and the 200-ema again, if it's touched.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:57:28 PM

GM ... here's an option montage I screen captured last night. Might be of help to traders considering any option positions as it relates to premium changes ... Link Good benchmark in here with GM at $30.97, almost $2.00 from yesterday's close and screen capture.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 1:50:35 PM

Ten year treasuries pulling back from the highs, almost as sharply as the rise that preceded it. TNX is up to a 1 bp loss at 4.176%. Daily chart with a long-tailed doji at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 1:49:15 PM

A flag may be forming on the OEX's 15-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:49:56 PM

General Motors (GM) $31.22 -4.81% ... 10-minute interval chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 1:43:19 PM

At least temporarily, the OEX pulls back from the first Keltner resistance.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 1:41:35 PM

The OEX climbs now, having taken a while to get the climb started. Candles are tall and not a measured back-and-forth pattern, at least not yet, but the OEX now deals with first Keltner resistance, from 558.50-558.99. I would expect a closer approach to the high of the day perhaps, but the OEX is actually near the 38.2% retracement of the day's range, a little above that and a little below the 50% retracement, so this is one danger point.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 1:38:20 PM

QQQQ has broken back above 35.65 on a sharp move up to 35.72 here. A break above 35.80 will set up the decline as a bear trap, while a failure below it will confirm the break and set the stage for some actual movement on the overdue 30 min cycle downphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:36:33 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,171.78, DIA $103.45, QQQQ $35.72 ... GM $31.01

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:34:59 PM

From an index trader perspective, I still think a BULL would want to tend toward QQQQ. If crude oil will break that $49.41, QQQQ doesn't have the energy exposure. June Crude continues to bounce along that level today, but 1/2 short in XOM could pay some rewards near-term if we oil gets the bearish close today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:30:42 PM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 97.92 -2.18% ... challenge Tuesday's low. SNDK $23.88 -1.72% ... still off Tuesday's low of $23.64

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:28:41 PM

JetBlue (JBLU) $20.83 -0.62% ... air traffic up 26.6% in April. Capacity up 25.1%

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 1:26:57 PM

Perhaps the Fed had a heads-up on the S&P downgrades when it decided to add that 1.25B bill pass this morning to top off its open market operations. It seemed odd at the time in light of the extra liquidity generated by the Treasury's paydowns.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 1:26:23 PM

To review, the conclusion coming into today was that we might see a final thrust higher (achieved) and then a pullback (achieved), and that it would be the shape of that pullback that would tell bulls whether they wanted to buy the dip. That pullback doesn't look encouraging. That was not a measured bull-flag dip. The possibility of a spring higher and V-shaped recovery exists, but it's not being produced as I type. I wouldn't be buying this dip personally.

The first sign I discovered of the imminent pullback was in examining Keltner evidence of approaching resistance on many charts, but as it played out today, the first sign was less spring from the five-minute 21-ema's, and a tendency for the CCI to drop further below zero on each test of that MA. So, MA evidence first. Then the BIX, an indicator index that Jeff taught us OEX traders to watch, showed clear Keltner evidence of building resistance and softening support, so watching indicator indices was important. Then the OEX itself dropped, having never achieved a breakout signal.

Hopefully, there will be a bounce now, and bears will hope that it's a corrective one showing clear signs that allow for a new bearish entry, but I honestly believe that without a strong push back below the 200-ema and -sma, the OEX could spend some time bouncing around between 555.60-562.80 or so. As in days or weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:25:57 PM

Bearish swing trade short alert ... for 1/2 bearish position in Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $57.21 -0.05% here, stop $58.10, target $55.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:22:02 PM

General Motors (GM) $30.93 -5.73% ... session low and DAILY S1. Note DAILY S2 overlap at $29.09 with our newly added retracement. You never know for sure, but let's be ready.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 1:21:45 PM

Declining volume has pulled ahead of advancing 1.75:1 on the NYSE and 1.59:1 on the Nasdaq. The NYSE TRIN is way up at 1.6, TRINQ still neutral but rising at 1.01. QQQQ volume has picked up but remains light for this time of day at 49.1M.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:20:02 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) ... down 28 cents at $49.85 -0.55% (30-min. delayed) ... even oil is getting whacked.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 1:19:46 PM

Tall red candle, then a doji at the 200-ema: Now this 15-minute period needs to see a tall white candle to complete the potential morning-star reversal pattern on the OEX's 15-minute chart and start the climb again. That's if you're bullish, of course. If you're not, you're quite satisfied to see that, so far, the OEX isn't looking inclined to spring higher and produce that tall white candle this 15-minute period.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:17:56 PM

GM $31.20 -4.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:17:36 PM

GM Sep $30 Puts (GM-UF) are bid $3.50 ask $3.80. and #10 active at 5,393

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 1:16:21 PM

Session low for Nymex crude at 49.55. 50-tick chart for the week at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:15:48 PM

GM most active options ... Jan06 $10 Put 10,050, May $30 Put 10,016, June $30 Put 9,756, Jan07 Put 9,454

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 1:15:13 PM

QQQQ intraday chart update at this Link with price holding within the 35.60-.65 confluence after a drop to 35.55. The 30 min channel bottom is starting to work its way lower, but no downphase evident yet from the keltner channels. The longer it holds below the 35.80 level, the more likely that will become.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:13:21 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 1:07:52 PM

As predicted, the OEX bounced from the 200-ema. Now the bounce needs to be a V-shaped one to preserve bullish hopes. Don't want to see a measured-distribution type bounce. If it's V-shaped instead, this then looks like a stop-running move to see where support will hold. If it's a measured distribution form, then we have to look at the possibility that the OEX will roll back down again. I personally believe that the OEX has entered another chop zone. I've had that long-range charts you've seen one too many times, covered in old annotations, but there's a range there, carried forward from the monthly chart, from about 555.50 or 555.60 to 562.80 or 563, and the OEX tends to chop around when it's in that zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 1:07:18 PM

No reprieve for treasury bears, with TNX now down 4.8 bps to 4.138%. This is a new low for the TNX below last week's doji bottom. 20-day bollinger support is at 4.084%, lining up with the 23.6% fib line on the daily chart just posted.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 1:05:28 PM

GE dived sharply there- my guess would based on its exposure to GM and/or F debt.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:05:19 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,169.23, DIA $103.26, QQQQ $35.65 ... GM $31.20

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 1:02:38 PM

01:00 Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 1:01:53 PM

This should be support for the OEX. 200-ema being tested. Watch the shape of the climb if it is support. Don't want to see a corrective climb if you're bullish.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 1:00:36 PM

Session highs for ten year treasuries, ZN blowing out this week's highs with TNX now testing support at the bottom of the 4.16%-4.18% confluence, down 2.6 bps to 4.16%. Daily chart at this Link with the stochastic upphase whipsawing to the downside.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 12:58:48 PM

The OEX now needs to maintain 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 558.67 to avoid vulnerability to 556, and it would actually be preferable for it to produce 15-minute closes above the Keltner line at 560.40. Instead, the OEX looks as if it might be going to hear right on down toward 556.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:59:08 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,170.39, DIA $103.29, QQQQ $35.69

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 12:53:39 PM

This is not the type of decline that bulls wanted to see, but it's the same kind that was seen Tuesday, as the indices were rolling down through rising regression channels that were built this week. Therefore, I'm not drawing conclusions too quickly, except the conclusion that those in bullish positions need to keep those profit-protecting plans in mind as this action occurs. I've been warning about the need for those profit-protecting plans all day, and actually since 559.50 yesterday, so readers have had plenty of time to make decisions. Stick by them, whatever they were, because you made them with cooler minds than you'll have now, as indices are dropping.

The OEX plunged beneath Keltner support but now bounces back to it again.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 12:51:11 PM

At long last, a strong plunge below the 7200 tick SMA. 30 min channel support is being tested right here, with the 60 min bottom at 35.65. If price holds south of 35.80 for another 10 minutes, look for those channels to begin declining. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:51:09 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.32 -0.41% ....

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 12:51:07 PM

Next BIX support is at 358.34-359.03, with the lower boundary of a rising regression channel above that, at about 360.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:50:46 PM

General Motors (GM) $31.42 -4.48% ... first possible level of downside risk for specialist at this 80.9% level.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 12:50:35 PM

Here's how Keltner evidence lines up with the BIX, with the BIX's stocks that are shared components of the OEX being important to the OEX's behavior: The BIX is trying to steady above 361.60-562.00 Keltner support, but doing so with candles that don't look corrective at all. (Note: fell through as I typed.) If it is successful in rising, resistance near 363.96-364.28 looks strong enough to at least halt its rise again, if not turn it down again. Nearby support looks far weaker than the gathering resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:49:53 PM

Ford (F) $9.78 -3.54% (breaks yesterday's opening tick low) ... earlier today I heard company had suspended its intra-day corporate debt dealings. Most likely they were informed of pending S&P cut on GM. Makes sense anyway.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:48:17 PM

General Motors telling Dow Jones that S&P decision won't deter company from achieving objectives.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 12:47:38 PM

The SPX is at the 100-ema today, with that average at 1174.81 and the SPX currently at 1175.06.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:47:25 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) 8.88 +0.56% ... no clue what they do, or do not hold at this point. $8.86 (4000) x $8.88 (6,800)

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:46:17 PM

GM ... Dow Jones report that GM bonds due in 2033 down 5 pts at 73.5 after downgrade.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:45:09 PM

General Motors (GM) $31.73 -3.26% ... S&P downgrade not all that unexpected. For a couple of weeks now we've heard some reports that "junk bond" market has been soft in anticipation.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 12:44:02 PM

Without a quick bounce to erase the just-completed signal, the OEX now looks vulnerable to 558.66 or perhaps lower. The OEX is attempting to bounce, however.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:43:18 PM

S&P Cuts debt rating on GM to "junk"

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:42:43 PM

It was a dinger too. $prem.X fell to -1.09

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 12:41:26 PM

Nymex crude is down to 49.775, 15 cents off the low. TNX is pulling lower, bids returning to bonds.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 12:41:25 PM

And there's the big BIX downturn from Keltner resistance, with the OEX turning down right along with it. The softening Keltner support predicted this would happen and now we have to see how deep it goes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:40:32 PM

SPX 1,174.72 , DIA $103.60, QQQQ $35.80

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 12:40:17 PM

QQQQ breaking the 7200 tick SMA here by 2 cents.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:40:01 PM

Sell Program Premium ... makes sense doesn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:39:37 PM

General Motors (GM) $31.70 -3.35% ... active here and session low.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:38:25 PM

iVillage (IVIL) $5.08 -25.7% ... lower on quarterly results and broker downgrades. Went back through notes and reason I had alerts set was talk of possible "acquisition target" by USA Interactive.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:32:37 PM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 398.36 +1.00% ... stalled a bit on FIRST test of WEEKLY R1, but moves through without much of a fight from sellers.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 12:28:54 PM

Volume breadth has strengthened slightly, even as the TRIN has risen to 1.11. There are 2.13 advancing shares for each declining on the NYSE, while the Nasdaq has 1.7:1 advancing shares over decliners. The TRINQ is lower at .64.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 12:27:32 PM

The BIX hasn't given up, still testing that Keltner resistance. The OEX's 15-minute Keltner resistance is at 561.82-562.05.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:31:10 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $18.03 +2.15% ... atop the most actives. No news that I can find but may be sympathy with Intel (INTC) $24.38 +1.07% into mid-quarter update. Two stocks that had me "feeling" like the QQQQ wasn't a short, even though it "looked it."

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 12:16:50 PM

A sharp bounce has QQQQ back above yesterday's high, with yet another successful test of the 7200 tick SMA. Updated chart at this Link . Ten year notes have dropped sharply back to the lows, TNX up 1.9 bps to 4.205%. Gold and silver have recovered slightly off their lows. All these markets are doing their very best to appear directionless, and so far succeeding this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:14:53 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 12:11:45 PM

A buy program could push the BIX back above that gathering Keltner resistance, but as it's configured now, it still looks far stronger than nearby support. The BIX keeps challenging it, however. The pullbacks on the TRAN and RLX still look corrective, but the RLX is now retesting support. Market bulls want to see it hold and not fall into a steeper decline.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 12:02:54 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 11:58:33 AM

Still watching the BIX. It looks as if it might be one of the first of the indicator indices I watch to turn former support into resistance, and so watching the shape of the decline, if there is one, could tell us whether the "corrective" label will be applied to the pullback or not.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 11:57:53 AM

General Motors (GM) $32.08 -2.22% ... here's a chart I've put together with retracement anchored from lowest close to yesterday's close. Might "make some sense" as it relates to why GM opened around $30 yesterday. I've also benchmarked the last 5-months short interest data with short interest : days to cover. Chart found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 11:56:39 AM

QQQQ is bouncing from its latest 7200 tick SMA test, still coiled and not touching either the previous low or high. With volume so light (now 29.5M QQQQ shares traded), it's still too early to rule the 30 and 60 min downphases as clearly corrective, or as being merely delayed. But bears will need to get to work soon to avoid that potentially very bullish "corrective" label being applied to the current intraday downphases.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 11:47:52 AM

The Fed's bill pass was in the amount of 1.25B, deliverable tomorrow.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 11:47:22 AM

Like the BIX (not coincidentally), the OEX threatens to fall below former Keltner support and turn that support into resistance. Bulls, keep your profit-protecting plans in mind.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 11:42:04 AM

Interesting chart, Tab, in your 11:40 post. Saks might be claiming right along with WalMart that crude is impacting sales, but investors certainly aren't believing them to the same degree, are they?

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 11:40:05 AM

Gold and euros to new session lows at 429.10 and 1.2943 respectively, with ZN bonds to a new low, TNX up 2.2 bps at 4.208% here.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 11:40:03 AM

Nothing alarming in the pullbacks yet seen across many indices. Neither the TRAN nor the RLX has yet erased the breakout signal on the 15-minute Keltner charts, although the SPX and BIX have both slipped below theirs, with the former BIX support now looking like strong resistance. Support thins below the current BIX position of 363.39, suggesting that the BIX might now be ready for a pullback.

Tab Gilles : 5/5/2005 11:40:25 AM

Linda... here's a look at 2 retailers, Saks and Wal-Mart and the $WTIC. There have been those that claim higher oil prices have hurt retail sales. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 11:37:42 AM

QQQQ pulling back to the 7200 tick SMA on a sharp drop, currently 1 cent above it: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 11:37:23 AM

Some indices now clinging to their five-minute 21-ema's rather than bounce from them. CCI spending some time below the zero level on those indices.

Tab Gilles : 5/5/2005 11:37:44 AM

Jeff....agree with your assessment of the 30 year. I was thinking myself on the timing of the news from the Treasury and the demand for the 30 year bond? Remember most of those looking to buy it would be insurance companies and pension funds. Also, what signal does this news send about the future of rate hikes?

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 11:31:50 AM

Caught on the telephone.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 11:31:13 AM

5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) down 1.0 bp at 3.852% while the 30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) up 1.2 bp at 4.198%. Still some adjustments being made to yesterday's Fed contemplating bringing back the 30-year. I think I can say "still some adjustments being made" to the Fed contemplation as Fed Fund futures still where they were after the FOMC. July Fed Funds at 96.76 (unch) and still 100% of another 25 bp rate hike. Yet buying in the shorter-dated 5-year? Looks like traders trying to park some cash in the short-end, but prepare to eventually buy the long end. Another sign might be that the Eaton Vance Ltd. Duration (EVV) 17.99 +0.61% has been finding some renewed buying interest.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 11:21:27 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 11:19:55 AM

The 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators are hanging, on sell signals still in overbought territory. Any kind of downside below the 7200 tick SMA should get it moving, with the key level still the price confluence at 35.60-.65, but price needs to get there to allow those downphases to breathe. Until that happens, it just looks like more overbought trending noise.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 11:15:36 AM

I've typed, then erased a QQQQ short trade two times today. It "looks" like a short back to $35.40, but sure doesn't "feel" like one.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 11:14:54 AM

The RLX did bounce again from its five-minute 21-ema, but the CCI spent enough time below zero before its current attempt to move above it again that there's some doubt about the quality of the bounce now. We'll see how that plays out. For now in the markets, it continues to be a time to guard bullish profits, perhaps by following indices or stocks higher with your stops.

The OEX consolidates just below 562, but still bounces from its own five-minute 21-ema. One or the other has to give way soon--either the resistance just below 562 or that five-minute 21-ema.

Tab Gilles : 5/5/2005 11:14:32 AM

DELL Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 11:14:27 AM

I smell something and I think it's "oil at $45.30" next week or two.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 11:08:34 AM

Session lows again for gold, silver and euros as equities continue to edge higher. QQQQ's volume is very light at 24.8M so far, but price isn't declining and has yet to break the 7200 tick SMA for longer than a brief minute or two. 30 min channel resistance has risen to 36.00, and should likely be tested if the bulls can break the current high 8 cents below it.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 11:06:01 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 11:04:01 AM

iVillage (IVIL) $5.30 -22.51% ... getting whacked today. I can't remember why I had alerts set on this one.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 11:02:40 AM

SAP Aktiengesell (SAP) $40.76 +0.89% Link ... bugger gapped (not unusual for an ADR) higher again this morning and back above its 200-day SMA. As a bear (I own the puts too) I want a light volume session. I see THIS chart, I see GM's chart Link as a supply/demand comparison.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 10:56:41 AM

The Fed has announced a bill pass, which is a permanent market operation which adds to liquidity. There's no amount yet announced, but these have recently been in the neighbourhood of 1B. I'll post the quantum when it's announced.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 10:56:27 AM

Shorts in GM, even above $34.00 are going to be jittery for a few days and when stocks gap more than 10% higher, especially listed ones, from some historic lows, those gaps will be difficult to fill. I agree with those that say Mr. Kerkorian's announcement yesterday is somewhat "manipulative." He could have bought his additional stake if he'd wanted to at much lower prices. Now he's going to have to pay up a bit if he's serious.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 10:55:43 AM

A look at the RLX with respect to watching the trend, with MA's and CCI: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 10:55:27 AM

Session low for euros here at 1.2948, just going negative, with gold back to unchanged and silver holding a 2.7 cent gain. The CRB is down .36 to 300.61, with sugar, cocoa and copper leading the decliners.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 10:52:04 AM

Stillwater Mining (SWC) $7.34 +1.66% ... stuck its head above $7.50 at the open, but that's it. Action here is what has the bearish side of me thinking yesterday's move in General Motors (GM) way overdone. Yes, if I had been short GM, especially below $30 I would have run for cover at yesterday's open. Palladium stocks not really signaling a sector recovery though.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 10:49:43 AM

An equal OEX high here (five-minute chart) would be a first sign of a potential change in trend. Would need to be confirmed by a drop below 560.49. Remember that this would be a sign of a change in the short-term trend and not a sign yet of a huge retracement. We'd need to see other signs to believe that.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 10:48:42 AM

Volume breadth is again strongest on the NYSE, now 2.29 advancing shares for each declining. On the Nasdaq, advancing volume leads 1.31:1. Despite that, the TRIN and TRINQ have both risen to .86. Pricewise, however, the downphase due this morning is so far extremely weak. If this is the best the bears can do with the 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators pegged to the top of their ranges, then the next upphase should be a doozy.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 10:47:03 AM

So far, the TRAN's pullback looks bull-flag-ish. So far. I'm not convinced yet that it's over.

Tab Gilles : 5/5/2005 10:46:16 AM

Symbol Technology (SBL) Here's a battered stock bouncing off of trend. Link Link

Starbucks (SBUX) Link

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link

Basic Material (XLB) Link Link

Eaton Vance Limited Duration (EVV) Link Link

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 10:46:11 AM

The OEX's CCI zero-line rejection was confirmed as the OEX bounced from the five-minute 21-ema again and headed up to retest Keltner resistance. This shows that so far the trend is still intact, but doesn't show whether the OEX is going to be able to break through that resistance any better than it did last time.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 10:44:51 AM

Most Actives ... SIRI $5.39 +3.05%, QQQQ $35.85 +0.33%, CSCO $17.94 +1.64%, LAZ $25.00 is an IPO, INTC $24.33 +0.95%, SPY $117.89, MSFT $25.24 +0.11%, SEBL $9.22 -3.25%, ORCL $11.72 (unch), JDSU $1.36 -1.44%

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 10:41:53 AM

Session low for gold at 429.70, silver at 7.02 and oil at 50.025. Delayed/Refreshable US Dollar Index chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 10:38:54 AM

QQQQ held the 7200 tick SMA there, bouncing back to 35.81 here. A lower low below the 35.92 high will set up a more aggressive retest for the next run, while above the high, a test of 36.00 resistance should follow quickly.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 10:38:47 AM

OEX CCI reversal being attempted now, but the five-minute period isn't over. (See my 10:36 post.) By the time it is over, this move may be, too!

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 10:36:21 AM

A trending move is a good one to watch with relationship to a MA. Since about 1:30 yesterday, the OEX has been bouncing from each touch of the five-minute 21-ema, and CCI zero-line reversals have been accompanying those bounces. Now the OEX tests that MA again (at 560.54), but CCI has dipped below the zero line. A CCI zero-line reversal can still occur but needs to occur within the next couple of five-minute bars or it looks a little untrustworthy.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 10:32:16 AM

If the indices are still strong and in rally mode, but pullbacks will be just that--pullbacks. Pre-market this morning, I suggested that we'd likely see another thrust higher, and then the shape of the pullbacks and the internals when they were occurring might tell us more about next direction. Those hoping for more gains don't want to see a steep and sudden decline that slices easily through potential support levels, but a calm zig-zagging move lower in a measured accumulation type of pattern.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 10:31:17 AM

Nymex crude has edged lower to unchanged at 50.125, coiling within yesterday's range. A break of 49.90 should see some thrust to the downside, while above 50.50, a retest of teh session high is likely, followed by yesterday's 50.90 high. 50-tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 10:23:44 AM

RLX dropping some now. RUT easing some, but not much.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 10:23:13 AM

The TRAN's 15-minute chart now shows a tall white candle followed by a gravestone doji and now a small decline. Bulls would rather not see a full-blown reversal signal confirmed on the current 15-minute candle, but support at 3515.43-3528.24 might need to be tested. If that occurs, that's going to create that full-blown reversal signal, an evening-star pattern unless the TRAN bounces quick and hard from any test of the support.

Remember that if the TRAN is up, a reversal may actually be only a small pullback. Still, we should watch these signs for hints that bullish profits might be threatened.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 10:21:53 AM

QQQQ pulls back to the 7200 tick SMA at 35.72 after hitting upper 30 min channel resistance. 35.65 support remains tested but unbroken- the key level here for bulls and bears as the 30 min cycle will finally turn down on a break below it. Look for a failure of 35.60 to confirm it.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 10:20:12 AM

The OEX heads down into first Keltner support, from 559.43-560.39.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 10:20:00 AM

Session high for ten year treasuries here, with TNX down to flat at 4.186%, back below the daily descending resistance line.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 10:15:48 AM

The OEX has first Keltner support relatively close, from 559.57-560.40. It looks strong, but so does Keltner resistance. Not sure which will win, and am watching other indices for clues.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 10:14:49 AM

TRAN pulling back, leaving a long upper shadow on the current 15-minute candle. RLX isn't yet, and RUT still holding near the high.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 10:11:42 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 10:10:03 AM

Nymex crude is 47.5 cents off its high, down to a .375 gain at 50.50. QQQQ dojied back from 2 cents above the upper 30 min keltner channel top but is hanging at 35.88, with the short cycles truing to turn up.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 10:07:51 AM

Not so much as a pullback on the RLX after producing a tall white candle and then a small-bodied candle (not a doji after all) at the top of that one during the first two 15-minute periods of the day. The TRAN continues higher, but has moved to the bottom of an about 20-point wide resistance zone on the daily Keltner chart. On a hunch--because the OEX and Dow aren't doing as well Keltner-wise as the SPX--I checked the RUT, and it, too, has created a breakout signal on the 15-minute Keltner charts. They need to get the big caps traveling along with them. For now, there's the chance that the other indices could tug the OEX and Dow higher, too, but guard those profits just in case.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 10:02:45 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link ... Homebuilders up 8.91 points, or 1.07% at 836.11.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 10:02:08 AM

Session low for gold at 430.30 as QQQQ makes a high at 35.82, testing yesterday's high. 30 min channel resistance is up to 35.90, and from there, the big overhang is just 10 cents away. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 10:00:26 AM

The SOX's upper Keltner resistance holds it, at least for the time being. So does the Dow's and OEX's, but the broader SPX attempts a breakout, although more modestly than the TRAN and RLX.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 9:58:55 AM

The RLX also broke out, a 15-minute candle ahead of the TRAN. Now the RLX consolidates, printing a gravestone doji for the current 15-minute period unless something changes drastically in the next couple of minutes. These are two of the breakout indices and should be watched for signs of reversal if you're in bullish plays and want to guard them.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 9:57:32 AM

The Fed's open market desk has announced a 6B overnight repo, which nets out to a 500M net drain for the day. In light of the large debt paydowns from the Treasury noted on Monday, this minimal drain can be seen as an "easy" money move from the Fed, taking only a nominal amount of the large additional liquidity from the Treasury out of circulation.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/5/2005 9:58:52 AM

Close INTC JUne 22.50 call now at 2.00 (+40%, entry at 1.45).

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 9:56:41 AM

The TRAN soon faces significant daily Keltner resistance from 3551.97-3570.51, with the TRAN currently at 3542.78.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 9:55:09 AM

SOX pulls back from upper Keltner resistance, but the TRAN isn't giving up, continuing to climb.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 9:52:22 AM

The SOX is hitting upper channel resistance on its 15-minute Keltner chart, with that resistance at 396.78. The SOX has had its "one thrust higher" this morning. Will it hold? First Keltner suport is currently at 394.16, but with other support close by, currently at 3923.49 and 392.55.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 9:53:52 AM

Bonds recouped the bulk of their earlier losses, with TNX back down to a 0.8 bp gain at 4.194%. Daily chart at this Link with today's narrow candle printing its body above the daily descending resistance line for the first time since it began in March.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 9:51:31 AM

VIX.X 13.56 -2.09% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.92, 13.37, Piv= 14.15, 14.61, 15.39.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 9:50:16 AM

The Dow does not look as strong as her sister index, the TRAN. The Dow is not attempting that breakout but is instead finding resistance at the upper Keltner channel. One is going to tug the other with it, but which is it going to be?

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 9:49:21 AM

As it did yesterday, the TRAN attempts a breakout above the upper channel resistance on the 15-minute Keltner channel. This comes after a dip and then quick 20-point rise on the TRAN. Market bulls would do well to watch the TRAN, but it's often the first to show an impulsive dive if one is going to come. It's also often one of the first to show a breakout, as it's attempting to do now. So far, the breakout holds.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 9:47:02 AM

Upper Keltner resistance (on 15-minute closes) has risen to 561.31 on the OEX.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 9:45:32 AM

Volume breadth is still up for grabs this morning, with 1.4 advancing shares for declining on the NYSE, 1.13 advancing for each declining on the Nasdaq. Both the TRIN and TRINQ read .78, both neutral/bullish readings. The total put to call ratio is currently .66, well off yesterday's continuous 1.0+ readings.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 9:44:25 AM

The RLX follows through on yesterday's gains, breaking above 410 and heading up toward the 30-dma at 414.85. I've been saying for a while that the RLX ought to be watched, and today is no exception as that test of the 30-sma approaches. This morning, the RLX has retraced more than 50% of the drop off the April high, but barely, and bulls of any stripe do not want to see a quick drop back below that 411.98 level. The RLX is at 413.96 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 9:40:28 AM

Initially at least, first OEX Keltner support does hold. The advdec line is going to have to improve, though, before bulls should feel too encouraged. I believe we could get a thrust up toward upper Keltner resistance, but bulls should have those profit-protecting plans in place in case there's a retracement after that.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 9:38:13 AM

QQQQ is testing 35.65 support here at the low, with 30 and 60 min channel support showing a slight downtick at 35.60 currently. If price can hold below the 7200 tick SMA resistance at 35.71 for another 10 minutes or so, a new 30 min cycle downphase should kick off.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 9:33:16 AM

No follow through just yet on the OEX, up toward the 561.20 upside target on the 15-minute Keltner chart. Strange how close that's come to that old Fib level of 561.23, the 38.2% retracement of the entire bear-market decline. Keltner support gathers from 558.90-559.77, and bulls would like to see that first support hold on any pullback. Those who bought the breakout above the 200-ema yesterday need to have profit-protecting plans in place.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 9:31:48 AM

I'm having some data feed issues here this morning, but hope to be up and running in a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 9:31:42 AM

Gold has edged back from its earlier gains, pulling back from a high of 432.5 and currently up .90 at 430.90. HUI has opened higher by .13 at 186.01.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 9:28:42 AM

Is that a continuation-form inverse H&S on the SOX's weekly chart, with a descending neckline? After puzzling over it for a little while, I decided that we don't really have to decide. The neckline is congruent with the 200-week sma, and as Marc has pointed out in the past, that's the average we have to watch on the SOX. So we don't have to worry about whether that's a neckline or not. Just watch the 200-week sma. We don't have to start watching just yet, though, because it's still about 35 points away.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 9:19:36 AM

So far the Fed has announced a 7B 14-day repo against the 9B expiring for a net drain of 2B in that timeframe. There remains another 4.5B in overnight money, leaving 6.5B to be accounted for at the 10AM announcement.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 9:15:05 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators are pinned to the ceiling, with the cycle channel tops just above at 35.85-.90. A weak short cycle downphase has been in progress since yesterday at 3:45PM. The daily cycle upphase continues.

QQQQ is due for an intraday pullback, and below 35.65, the 30 min cycle should begin printing sell signals. A break above yesterday's high, however, will ignite the short cycle back to an upphase, and the bullish trending move will continue. On a daily cycle basis, I expect the going to get rougher at 36, with confluence resistance to 36.20. The quality of the next 30/60 min cycle pullback will give us a better read as to how the daily cycle upphase should do at that key resistance level.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 8:51:53 AM

The OEX finally did it. It finally broke back above the 200-ema. I had warned that those going long on a break over that average needed to have profit-protecting plans at the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the April high, near 559.50, but the OEX charged above that, all the way toward upper Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart, now at 561.17. Some will remember that this is near historical S/R and 38.2% retracement of the entire bear-market rally, with that Fib level at 561.23. It was a natural place for a hesitation, although it's not certain whether there was actually any hesitation or whether the day just ended before the OEX could climb any higher.

The climb had taken the form of a rising bearish wedge. That and the approach to important resistance may mean that it's time for a pullback, but perhaps not until one more thrust higher. (Do I sound like Keene now? Smile.) On any pullback, bulls want to see a measured zig-zagging lower, perhaps to the 200-ema which might be near the 38.2% retracement of the rally off yesterday's low. Bulls do not want to see a fast and hard drop immediately after a breakout, as that questions the breakout. If that measured zig-zagging move occurs, and internals suggest buying the bounce, bulls again want to have protective measures in place as yesterday's high was released. If the move is instead a steep drop, there's danger of a rollover from this resistance. Each side has its cheerleaders, so let the shape of any pullback, if one occurs, help guide your choices. As this morning opens, I suspect that any early gains may just be follow-through on yesterday's, and that the pullback or sideways consolidation may then ensue, so I don't think the current level is a good one for new bullish entries. Could be wrong, but that's how I see it.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 8:32:58 AM

Bonds are dropping on the news, TNX now up 2.5 bps to 4.205%. QQQQ is down 3 cents to a 2 cent gain at 35.75, very little movement from equities on the data.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 8:32:08 AM

Preliminary productivity +2.6% vs. 1.8% exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 8:32:22 AM

Headlines:

U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 11,000 TO 333,000

U.S. 4-WK AVG. INITIAL CLAIMS DOWN 2,000 TO 321,500

U.S. Q1 NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY UP 2.6% VS. 1.9% EXPECTED

U.S. Q1 UNIT LABOR COSTS UP 2.2%

U.S. Q1 REAL HOURLY COMPENSATION UP 2.4%

U.S. Q1 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTIVITY UP 3.9%

U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 38,000 TO 2.6M

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 8:23:37 AM

The cash bond market shows Ten year yields up 1.5 bps at 4.201% ahead of the big reports due in seven minutes. Equities have flipped to green, QQQQ up a nickel to 35.78.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/5/2005 8:45:27 AM

Equities are mixed to lower, with ES trading 1174.75, NQ 1451.5, YM 10367 and QQQQ -.03 at 35.70. Gold is up 1.60 to 431.60, silver +.038 to 7.041, ten year notes flat at 111 9/16 and crude oil +.475 at 50.60.

We await the 8:30 release of initial claims, est. 324K, and preliminary Q1 productivity, est. 1.8%.

Linda Piazza : 5/5/2005 7:02:38 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei, Shanghai Composite and Kospi were all closed last night, and other Asian markets were mixed. As news about an explosion in front of the British consulate in the U.S. circulated and as U.K. voters head to the polls, European markets coiled, but did so in positive territory. Current news reports suggest that the explosion had no casualties and structural damage was minor. Our futures traded sideways down, rose to test closing highs into the European open, dropped strongly when the news of the explosion hit, and attempted to recover, now near the flat-line level. As of 5:40 EST, gold was up $1.40, and crude, up $0.49 to $50.62. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei and Shanghai Composite were closed for another day, and South Korea's Kospi also closed. Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted soared 2.13%, but Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.06%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.84%. News was light, but included information that a company named Mizuno planned to open between twenty and thirty new stores in China. In China, an article notes that armed Chinese police guard the Japanese Consulate General against threatened new anti-Japanese demonstrations. In the U.S., the Japanese ruling party leader met yesterday with Vice President Cheney, with the two agreeing to apply pressure to force North Korea to join six-party talks on its nuclear program.

European markets coil, but do so in positive territory despite the blast, the election in the U.K., and overnight news that IBM would cut jobs, mostly in Europe. The blast in front of the U.K. consulate in the U.S. reportedly has resulted in no injuries and little damage. In the U.K., Blair is expected to win the election but his party may come under pressure. Also in the U.K., April's CIPS' Services PMI declined to 56.5 from the previous 57, meeting expectations. One encouraging component was the employment one, rising to 53.2 from the previous 52.

BAE leads gains in the U.K. after a newspaper reported that the company may be able to wrangle a deal with its unions that will cut more than half its U.K. pension liability. Other European stocks reacted to news, with Imperial Chemicals Industry dropping after reporting better-than-expected Q1 profits but not providing clarity for the year's expectations, Philips Electronics gaining after the company completed sales of a portion of its holdings in NAVTEQ, and Siemens announcing that the offering period of one of its units to acquire CTI Molecular Imaging Inc. (CTMI) had expired.

As of 6:57 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 23.90 points or 0.49%, to trade at 4,906.40. The CAC 40 had gained 20.77 points or 0.52%, to trade at 4,008.40. The DAX had gained 19.09 points or 0.45%, to trade at 4,283.44.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 3:30:00 AM

Sector Bell Curve comparison from last Wednesday's close to yesterday's (Wednesday) close at this Link .. from right ... restAURANTS have slipped lower/left; oilsERVICE and retaIL have slipped lower/left; textILES, mediA, gameING, chemICALS have slipped lower/left; busiNESS PRODUCTS, oil, machINERY have slipped lower/left; transPORTS, softWARE have slipped lower/left; housEHOLD, elecTRONICS have slipped lower/left; biomEDIC have slipped lower left. WALLstreet has just moved up to "bull comfirmed" at 48%. In August (8) this sector bull % fell to 26%%, then shot as high as 74% in December (C) before its recent decline to 42%. STEEl has also reversed up to 28% from a recent low reading of 18%. A reading of 30% is needed to achieve "bull alert" status.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2005 3:08:22 AM

Sector Bell Cruve comparison from 12/31/04 to Wednesday's close at this Link

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