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OI Technical Staff : 5/6/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 4:14:03 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 4:00:29 PM

The OEX also broke triangle support, but I'm always a little skeptical of last-minute maneuvering on a Friday afternoon.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 3:59:06 PM

Keltner-style bearish divergence did hold up on the Q's. The Q's did test 35.78 (well, 35.81) before piercing 36.02 again. See my 3:30 (a short-term prediction only).

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 4:06:45 PM

QQQQ day trade update alert ... $35.83 +0.19% ... doesn't look like we'll get stopped. Will now turn to a swing trade, stop $36.32, target $35.40 (subject to lower revisions)

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 3:59:20 PM

QQQQ breaking rising triangle support here, testing 72 period SMA support at 35.85. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 3:51:06 PM

An end-of-day look at the OEX's daily Keltner chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 3:49:25 PM

One study period I'm following in the WEEKLY Pivot Matrix history is that for the week of 04/05/04-04/09/04, only the DIA traded its WEEKLY R1 that week. (may be similar to next week's trade). Hmmmm... based on this analysis, it may be best to close out the QQQQ day trade short at the close.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 3:45:49 PM

QQQQ ... if current week's high=$36.02 and low = $34.89 hold, with a close of $36.00, then WEEKLY Pivot levels ... $34.51, $35.25, Piv = 35.64, $36.38, $36.77.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 3:43:08 PM

Gut feel is QQQQ $36.00 close. SNDK $25.01 +4.03% SAP $41.02 +0.09% GM $30.98 +0.38% SMH $32.04 +0.75% with 17 minutes to close. You'd think it was option expiration Friday.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 3:41:48 PM

The TRAN and RLX don't really build on their attempts to inch up. Just part of the settling into an equilibrium position, I guess.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 3:40:25 PM

QQQQ day trade update alert ... willing to hold this one over the weekend if not stopped out at break even.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 3:37:18 PM

Thanks, Jonathan, for the outlook on the Q's.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 3:36:00 PM

Linda, on my chart Link the keltner setup resembles last night's more or less. So long as the Keltner 35 (30 min channel) is pointing north, my expectation is for price to rise. As yesterday, the 60 min channel is opposing it, but we saw what happened this morning from that similar setup. Overall, the daily says up, the 60 says maybe down, and the 30 says up. And, overall, the volume says "whatever" and puts a low confidence caveat on the whole picture today and yesterday. TGIF.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 3:35:24 PM

The SOX, however, looks ready to inch lower. Mixed evidence among the indices.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 3:34:20 PM

The TRAN and RLX, two stronger indices from this morning, appears to be trying to inch up here. If they're successful, they could pull other indices up, too, but when I say "inch," I mean inch. Keep a watch on them.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 3:32:17 PM

QQQQ $35.89 +0.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 3:31:57 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert in the QQQQ to break even.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 3:30:17 PM

Don't know how Jonathan reads it, and he's been watching the Q's far longer than I have, gaining far more expertise, but on the channels I watch, the Q's have been producing Keltner-style bearish divergence on each swing high: first a piercing of the mid-sized channel I watch, then a more minor piercing, and then, so far, not even a touch. If that bearish divergence is to continue, the Q's might test 35.78 before piercing 36.02 again. Of course, the caveat is that that bearish divergences serve as a warning, but prices don't always follow through on that warning.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 3:28:12 PM

QQQQ's up to 67M shares, over 40M shares less than the average, and drifting back toward yesterday's high at bull triangle resistance. Today's drift, following yesterday's shallow corrective pullback, has succeeded only in chopping up the longer intraday oscillators, such that the 60 min cycle is pointing sideways-lower, the 30 min sideways-higher, and the short cycles are mixed. However, today's range is above yesterday's, which was above Wednesday's. Whether on light volume or not, the higher highs and higher lows confirm the ongoing daily cycle upphase. A break below 35.50 would be the first step toward 35.20-.23, below which the daily cycle upphase would be called into question.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 3:26:17 PM

Here's the chart from this morning, and it looks as if the OEX is following through on its since-late-2001 pattern of chopping around once it gets into this zone: Link On a 120-minute chart, which I've found valuable to watch for the OEX, the consolidation pattern looks like a neutral triangle. The 120-minute chart produces candle shadows and bodies that are a little different than on other charts, of course. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 3:19:24 PM

My own calculations would have WEEKLY Pivot Levels for June Crude Oil (cl05m) $51.00 as .... $47.07, $49.03, Piv = $50.67, $52.63, $54.27.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 3:16:19 PM

As round as round might have been. June Crude Oil (cl05m) settled up 17 cents, or 0.33% at $51.00

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 3:14:47 PM

The SOX did continue laboring up toward next Keltner resistance, and it's hit it now, with that resistance at 397.70 on 15-minute closes. A pop above that and 15-minute close above it suggests a new upside target of 400, but there's not a lot of strong evidence to suggest that the SOX will be able to produce that breakout signal. Not saying that it can't, but support softens a little and there's no real preference to be given of support over resistance, so not many clues.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 3:13:16 PM

Bears want to break the current uptrend Link to invalidate what could be an intraday bullish rising triangle below 35.92. The range has grown so narrow on the thin volume, however, that it's doubtful whether a break will get very far in either direction from here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 3:12:46 PM

Even bear cubs love their mother ... According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the day before Mother's Day has found the Dow up 7 of last 10.

Jim Brown : 5/6/2005 3:12:36 PM

Consumer Credit was released at 3:PM and came in at $5.5 billion and the smallest rise since November. The consensus was for a $6.6B jump. The markets weakened right at 3:PM when the numbers were released.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 3:11:00 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 3:10:38 PM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner charts now give no clue at all of next direction or even when the next direction might be taken. The OEX's Keltner channels, too, look as if they're settling into an equilibrium position.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 3:09:39 PM

Resistance was building above the BIX's then-current position at the time of my 2:57 post. The BIX turns down, but I'm still kind of thinking it may be settling into an equilibrium position. If so, it will likely rattle around from 359.50-356.60 over the very short term.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 3:08:18 PM

Little sell program here ... SPY $117.43

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 3:03:16 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 3:01:57 PM

QQQQ's challenging the prior high again, with 30 min channel resistance up to 35.97 where it overlaps the 60 min channel top. Volume has reached 64.2M shares, still uncertain whether we'll be able to match yesterday's light 79.6M volume. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 2:59:04 PM

Ten year treasuries have pulled back to the lows, TNX up to a 10.4 bp gain at 4.266% with 2 minutes left of the cash session. Updated daily chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 2:57:49 PM

Resistance may be thickening above and at the BIX's current 358.42 position. In reality, I suspect that the BIX's Keltner channels may be lining up in equilibrium position, one channel lined up within another, the central basis lines converging in the center. When that happens, price action can tighten prior to a breakout, but neither the direction nor the timing of the breakout will be clear. Unfortunately. Such a situation can continue for minutes or hours, and could certainly persist into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 2:52:04 PM

Should have thought of this earlier with SNDK above $24.50. "should have" bought 100 shares, used that put as some protection near term. A good day trade long at least, but not sure I would have taken it with the DDX.X 98.48 +0.26% weaker this morning.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 2:51:06 PM

Back for a few minutes, but may have to leave again. Jeff, I was gone when you posed your question about going long the QQQQ's when they were near $34.50. No, but I entered a SOX bull put spread about then. Does that count? Smile. Hoping for a SOX pop higher to get rid of the sold put and keep the rest of the credit I took in. Just don't know if I'll get it. Here's how I read the SOX 15-minute Keltner channel: The SOX is laboring up toward 387.57 next Keltner resistance, but support may be thinning beneath the SOX and those 15-minute candles are growing smaller. Real iffy as to whether the SOX can get above that resistance. If it doesn't, and falls down to 394.71 before breaking through that resistance, it will have continued the Keltner-style bearish divergence it's been showing since midday yesterday. As my article tonight will state, divergences serve as warnings only. Sometimes prices reverse after a Keltner-style divergence, and sometimes they don't, just as with other types of divergences.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 2:41:35 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert for the full QQQQ position to $36.05.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 2:40:30 PM

Good heavens ... where's oil going to settle?

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 2:39:11 PM

Nymex crude closed +.275 or .54% at 51.10. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 2:38:31 PM

Honeywell (HON) $37.41 +6.36% ... WEEKLY R2 at $37.18. We started the day out below WEEKLY Pivot $35.85. Wall Street not as eager to buy/sell RUMOR as it is to buy/sell more factual info. Today, shorts in HON may not care. Meanwhile, any shorts in UTX are praying it is true and that UTX pays too much (if rumor is true).

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 2:34:38 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.82 +0.3% ... components at 02:30 PM capture with UTX and HON in the spotlight. Remember this is a PRICE weighted index. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 2:31:07 PM

QQQQ failed at the 30 min channel top and is pulling abck from 35.92. As has been the case all day, it's moving with no gusto, just drifting back to 35.85. 72 period SMA support is down to 35.83. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 2:20:00 PM

QQQQ ... 5-minute interval chart has BLACK upper kelter correlative with DAILY R1. Sellers better be there.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 2:18:38 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 2:08:32 PM

General Motors (GM) $31.00 +0.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 2:08:07 PM

Honeywell (HON) $37.52 +6.65% ... surging on speculation of being bought by UTX $102.03 -0.09% ... both Dow components.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 2:07:33 PM

QQQQ cleared the SMA line at 35.82 as crude plunged to a low of 50.275, currently up to 35.88 and heading for a retest of yesterday's high, which still overlaps the 30 min channel top at 35.92. The short cycles oscillators have turned up, but the upphase has so far been mostly sideways. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 2:07:01 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $24.67 +2.62% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 2:05:50 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 2:04:21 PM

Session low for Nymex crude here at 50.55, -.275. 50 tick chart for the week at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 2:03:44 PM

QQQQ 5-minute intervals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 1:55:22 PM

I like that BLACK channel the best (for swing traders) Swing trade short at $35.94, stop $36.10 (hope price action turns lower, gets channel to turn lower) with a downside target to MONTHLY Pivot and with time the lower end of that black channel?

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 1:50:04 PM

QQQQ here are some observations with QQQQ 30-minute chart. Linda's keltner settings she gave me with my WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement. Linda... did you go long the QQQQ at $34.50? Link

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 1:46:28 PM

It's time for me to go, but wanted to note that bulls should be careful from 562-563.75, at next Keltner resistance, corresponding with long-term S/R. I'll try to return in an hour or hour and a half.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 1:46:02 PM

This is starting to feel like an afterhours session. QQQQ's been glued to the 72 period SMA with little movement and less volume- so far, we're on track to miss yesterday's light 79.6M shares. Updated intraday chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 1:41:17 PM

These keltners looking QQQQ higher to $36.01 right now. (I don't like them! grin, as they may be saying something I don't want them to).

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 1:38:29 PM

Here's a problem (for some traders) with Keltner's. Those lines are dynamic, so you can't just set a stop at a certain number, because resistance or support may have moved slightly as prices moved. Earlier, at 12:17, I suggested that those who might have been in bearish OEX positions from the test of today's high exit half their positions and set the rest to breakeven, and that was based on Keltner evidence. But if I'd listed a place where support might occur a bit earlier, it would have been higher than that point, because Keltner lines were higher then before drifting down with price.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 1:34:39 PM

Most movements are going to be contained in the middle-sized channel, with the smaller channel oscillating within that one. My articles have talked about general uses for the Keltners, setting targets with them, and now this weekend's will be on divergences.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 1:32:56 PM

Nested Keltners look like somebody threw down a plate of tri-colored pasta on the floor at first, Jeff, and about as senseless. Keep watching, though.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 1:31:47 PM

The OEX popped higher as I thought it might do when bears couldn't push it lower. First Keltner resistance now at 560.39 and then 561.83 and 563.88. Resistance thins now, so if the OEX can maintain 15-minute closes above the Keltner lines currently near 559-559.40, it has a chance of moving up to retest the day's high at least, if not yesterday's. Bulls, remember that the top of that long-term S/R zone in which the OEX tends to show choppy behavior is near 563.30 or so.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 1:31:42 PM

Good gravy Linda! I've got squigly lines all over my screen. But... the shoter-term Keltner (day trader uses?) base range lined up nicely with the DAILY Pivot. QQQQ session low $35.72.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 1:31:30 PM

QQQQ testing 7200 tick SMA resistance here at 35.85. Note that the 30 min cycle top is down to 35.92, setting us up for a potential yawner if volume doesn't pick up significantly.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 1:28:43 PM

Reader Request: Would you post or provide a list of dates for your previous Keltner Channel articles. Not sure that I have read all of them.

Response: Thanks for asking. The articles were Traders Corner articles on March 20 and May 1. I'd written another about a year ago, but our archived articles are not yet available, and these articles include the same information in an expanded format, anyway.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 1:22:03 PM

June Crude futures (cl05m) $51.40 +1.12% ... it isn't over until its over.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 1:21:20 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 1:20:46 PM

So far, the OEX hasn't made it back above the first Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes. That's at 559.10. Those 15-minute candles are getting squeezed, though, and they're going to go somewhere, either toward 556.22-556.99 support or up.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 1:18:04 PM

Volume breadth has weakened a bit but remains positive, 1.11 advancing NYSE shares for each declining, 1.72 advancing Nasdaqs. The TRIN and TRINQ remain in neutral bullish territory at .87 and .62 respectively, but volume is so light that it's tough to get a feel for even the intraday bias. Price is obviously declining off today's highs, but with no oomph. It feels like more corrective action- so far, just another higher high and higher low shaping up for the day.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 1:15:29 PM

When I first read about nested Keltner channels in an obscure article, I wasn't so sure they'd be helpful at all. They weren't, at first, but the more I use them, the better I like them. One real advantage is that the converging of various lines can give you a sense of how strong resistance is relative to support. (Once you've watched them for a while, that is.) I can draw trendlines and QCharts does a handy job of snapping regression channels for me and even putting pivot levels on the charts, but is that trendline weakening? Is resistance strengthening? Keltners do a better job at that, I think.

I didn't take your comment the wrong way, either, Jeff. I still use more traditional tools, too. When the OEX and other indices were trending higher the other day, I was watching the bounces off the five-minute 21-ema and coordinating those bounces with oscillator moves. I use different tools, but I can't imagine not having a Keltner chart as one of those any longer. Not for me.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 1:09:39 PM

Here comes the attempt to push higher that I thought might come if the OEX didn't drop soon. So far, the OEX just tests that Keltner resistance, currently near 559.16, with no 15-minute close above it. Outcome of the test isn't know. That resistance still looks relatively firm, but bulls waiting for their new entry aren't going to wait forever, either.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 1:09:56 PM

Thanks Linda! ... well, I've traded without them for years and have done fine (don't take this the wrong way). BUT I'm looking to try and IMPROVE PERFORMANCE and if I can find confluence of resistance and support with the dynamic kelterns and the static pivot levels, then my performance may improve.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 1:05:47 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 1:00:43 PM

OEX bears hoping to see the bottom of that 555.60-563.30 S/R chop zone on the daily chart and the 556.04-556.92 next Keltner support need to get the job done soon or bulls are going to be encouraged and try sending the OEX up to test the top of the zone again. Chop, chop.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 12:58:39 PM

I'll be gone for about an hour this afternoon, maybe a little more, beginning about 1:45. Then I'll be gone all day Monday.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 12:53:56 PM

QQQQ's bounce sputtered in the early going, but volume is very light here and overall. Until price has cleared the 72 period SMA at 35.88, the intraday bias will remain to the downside. So far, the oversold short cycle oscillators are doing very little. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 12:52:26 PM

I have to say, though, that I haven't happened on just the right Keltner settings that work for currencies, though. :-~ As Jonathan suggested, have to tailor these to the time frames you're watching, but those settings I noted tend to work really well for the TRAN, Dow, SPX, and OEX on 15-minute charts, and moderately well for some other indices.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 12:49:45 PM

While Hurst was deep into the math, the cycle settings can be configured "analogically" to fit the oscillators used to measure each cycle- just keep adjusting the period and, when necessary, the offset, until it's generating signals that line up closely with the corresponding oscillator signals. Ideally, they should signal a channel touch and reversal that coincides closely with oscillator signal. Do it for the nested timeframes you're following, and bingo, the picture is complete.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 12:49:14 PM

Jeff, I wouldn't trade without nested Keltner channels. I use different settings than Jonathan's, but here are mine, captured from QCharts: Link Don't know if you've caught them, but I've been doing some Traders Corner articles on how I use these. Tonight's will be on Keltner-style divergences.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 12:46:14 PM

Thanks Jonothan! I've tried on my own, but my Keltners never looked like yours. I think the 35-period and 4.5 offset is what I needed most.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 12:46:09 PM

I'm getting that gut feeling that if the OEX isn't pushed lower soon, bulls might take this as a higher low in the making and step in. Remembering that I'm expecting choppy trading conditions while the OEX is within this long-term S/R zone from about 555.60-563.30 or so, so I wouldn't be surprised to see targets not quite met in any direction. So far, first Keltner resistance holds, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 12:44:26 PM

Jeff, I use a different platform that seems to have rather unique settings. Attached is a capture of the setup screen for my intraday indicators, with the 30 min cycle proxy (Keltner 35 expanded to show the period and offset). These are Quotetracker settings, and I'm happy to email my "charts.ini" file to anyone who wants to tinker with it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 12:44:23 PM

Disk Drive Index (ddx.x) 97.46 -0.77% ... I'm going to have to make some adjustments to my QQQQ thinking (change from day trade to swing trade and targets) .... as my convictions build for downside at this point. I'm also building some convictions toward the historical work in the pivot matrix we did last night.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 12:42:25 PM

So far, first Keltner resistance holds on the OEX. The RLX and TRAN are beginning to look a bit weaker, but not yet following through on that tentative Keltner viewpoint. They're looking more as if they might be pressured lower by first Keltner resistance. This viewpoint is tentative because if they can pop above that pressuring Keltner resistance (near 411 for the RLX and 3529 for the TRAN) and stay above it, then resistance softens above that.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 12:42:04 PM

Jonathan/Linda alert ... I've never used Keltner channels, but you both seem to find them very useful. Could you look at the following and tell me what I should set things at? Length, Source, Multiplier? Do you use exponential? Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 12:41:25 PM

Only the slightest bounce for ten year treasuries off their lows, with TNX pulling back to a 9.6 bp gain at 4.258%. The daily cycle upphase certainly took its time, but the Macd is on a confirming cross today. 4.24% is now support, with next resistance up at 4.3%. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 12:37:01 PM

QQQQ 30-minute interval chart at this link. I turned off the DAILY Pivot levels so we can read a little better. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 12:32:09 PM

The OEX tests Keltner resistance from 559-559.41, and bears hope to see continued 15-minute closes below those levels to point the smallest Keltner channel down toward 556.10-556.90. Bulls want to see the OEX produce 15-minute closes above that Keltner resistance to turn the smallest channel higher again, toward 562.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 12:25:51 PM

Good comparison charts with Jonathan's 12:20:14 and my 12:21:18 for the QQQQ. VERY different methods of analysis may be saying same thing.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 12:21:18 PM

QQQQ $35.77 +0.02% ... 5-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement. Overlaid QCharts' DAILY Pivot Levels. Chart found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 12:20:14 PM

QQQQ intraday chart updated at this Link with price resting on the now-declining 30 min channel support and intraday oscillators nearly maxxed out in oversold territory. The longer price holds near the lows, the greater the likelihood of a further breakdown as the 60 min channel joins in to the downside. The TRINQ has risen to .96, TRIN to .81. Bond yields remain pegged near the highs, TNX +10 bps at 4.262%.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 12:17:53 PM

I think if I were in a bearish short-term OEX position from the test of the high this morning, I'd think about exiting half the position here and setting the rest to breakeven.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 12:15:16 PM

If the OEX closes the current 15-minute period below the Keltner lines currently at 559.04-559.66, it will have set a tentative downside target of 555.95-556.83. Bears who might have entered on a rollover need to have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of 558, as I mentioned this morning in the first OEX-related post, and then again now at that 555.95-556.83 level. That's the bottom of that choppy S/R zone I mentioned, and could prompt another bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 12:14:55 PM

QQQQ day trade bear that trades 1,000 shares alert ... a day trade bear that trades 1,000 shares in the QQQQ, you might look to cover 1/2 position on a trade at $35.65.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 12:10:55 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 12:02:28 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Tab Gilles : 5/6/2005 12:00:14 PM

Missed this stock on last post. Cigna (CI) Still targeting $100. Link Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 11:59:20 AM

QQQQ dropping here toward a test of overlapping 30 and 60 min channel support at 35.76: Link . The shape of the short cycle oscillators suggests that it should hold- otherwise, we'll have the more bearish/less likely setup of a 30/60 min rollover pegging the short cycle in an oversold trending move.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 11:56:19 AM

Stepping away for a moment.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 11:49:58 AM

The TRAN sinks to next Keltner support, just above the confirmation for the double-top formation on its 15-minute chart. This support looks moderately firm, but resistance continues to firm up, so the TRAN could just forget the bounce attempt that should come and drop. I think I'd expect a bounce attempt, though, from just above 3520, perhaps finding resistance again at 3535 or so.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 11:53:43 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 358.48 -0.67% ... I don't think a trader/investor can view today's action as "overly negative." Remember what the banks have done the past couple of weeks. They're what has held everything together and gave the SPX/OEX stability and recent gains. Probably some profit taking today. For now... "they've done enough." Outside the pivots, we will note that they couldn't quite get through the starting to round 200-day SMA. Still, they expended some energy from 342 and may need a rest. Link

Tab Gilles : 5/6/2005 11:49:56 AM

Stock Watch Recap...

Symbol Tech (SBL) Still holding in there... Link

Starbucks (SBUX) Link

Murphy Oil (MUR) Oil holding at that $50 level.... Link

Basic Material (XLB) With the Fed looking to stay with the "measured pace" story, you gotta like the basic material stocks. Link

Eaton Vance Limited Duration (EVV) Jobs report today has put a pressure on bonds and EVV. Note how it ran right upto its 50 ma and Fib retracement! Still like the yield here. Link Link

JP Morgan (JPM) Here's a new stock I'm tracking. On this weekly chart I'd enter on a break over the 40 week -ema, stop below $35. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 11:40:28 AM

A look at the OEX's daily Keltner chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 11:43:58 AM

Star Gas Partners (SGU) $3.55 +49.78% ... percentage gainer on the big board. The heating oil and propane retailer said it lost $24.1 million or $0.67 per limited partner unit compared with a profit of $80.7 million, or $2.27 per LPU a year ago. Story at this link and educational regarding various energy products and hedging activity. Link You can see why a company's "head hedger" is perhaps the most valuable employee.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 11:37:19 AM

While price hangs below yesterday's high, volume breadth has strengthened, advancing volume ahead of declining 1.86:1 for the NYSE and 1.9:1 for the Nasdaq, with the TRIN down to .61 afn teh TRINQ .54. Bonds are weakening ZN to a new low here at 110 29/32, TNX up a whopping 11.8 bps. Earlier in the session, this would have coincided with higher highs for equities as well- the dilution of that relationship this morning looks good for equity bears.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 11:35:02 AM

General Motors (GM) $31.05 +0.61% .... with reports that GM's debt still falling, I'm a bit surprised how GM hangs above Kerkorian $31.00. $30.75 at least guys! I'd think the arbs would be buying the debt and selling the riskier equity.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 11:32:18 AM

It sure feels, based on observation that computers are trying to stay bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 11:31:38 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,174.20, DIA $103.70, QQQQ $35.86, SNDK $24.34 (its weekly Pivot)

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 11:30:41 AM

June Crude Oil Futures (cl05m) an intra-day chart on 5-minute intervals. Can get some idea of how human traders and computers (fitted 38.2%) and computers WEEKLY Pivot levels are dealing with things. Chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 11:28:46 AM

Back from a reboot and resetting my charts. QQQQ is still south of but testing the 7200 tick SMA. So far, the short cycle downphase hasn't gotten much traction, and if it turns up from here, there will be a good likelihood of a retest of the session highs. I've switched to a 3 minute chart to try to compensate for the ticks I've missed during my outage: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 11:25:49 AM

The OEX is still inside that chop zone I pointed out this morning, and could stay there for a while, so welcome to the chop.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 11:25:38 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) $24.40 +1.49% ... high of day here. DDX.X 98.07 -0.15% .... QQQQ $35.90 +0.39% ....

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 11:24:25 AM

A Keltner view of the BIX, with the shared BIX/OEX components being important to the OEX: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 11:22:01 AM

June Crude (cl05m) $52.20 +2.69% (30-min delayed) ... will monitor intra-day action later today, but a settle above here may well see further gain to next level of bearish risk and $54.51. Earlier this morning, Reuters cited today's gain as short-covering into the weekend. I would tend to agree as traders have to assess risk to the next level up.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 11:17:32 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 11:13:31 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.84 +0.34% ... coiling around its WEEKLY R2 like a python around a pig. Session high is round at $104.00

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 11:11:37 AM

IBM $75.21 -0.11% ... low of day, week and month here.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 11:11:03 AM

The TRAN rolls down from the day's high but hasn't confirmed the double-top formation just yet, and may not. Next Keltner support is above that confirmation, at 3523-3526. Keltner resistance up near 3550 is looking stronger, though.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 11:09:01 AM

The BIX tests Keltner resistance at 359.05. If it can't close 15-minute periods above that Keltner line, it's vulnerable to more declines and perhaps to steep ones, but it's trapped between that resistance and just-underneath mid-channel support at 358.68, trying to round up ahead of Tuesday's low. The shape of the consolidation looks a bit bear-flag-ish. So, the BIX looks vulnerable, but bulls in BIX component stocks haven't give up the fight just yet.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 11:06:05 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 11:05:48 AM

Feed problems here- trying a reboot.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 11:04:03 AM

The BIX consolidates below 360.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 11:02:04 AM

Bema Gold (BGO) $2.16 +0.93% ... ????? usually getting "whacked" when oil is up.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 11:01:48 AM

Stepping away for a moment.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 11:00:56 AM

QQQQ intraday update at this Link with price ticking up for a test of 7200 tick SMA resistance from below. If that resistance holds, the next key test would be of lower channel support- 35.76 for the 30 min channel, 35.71 for the 60. However, the longer the weakness persists, the more likely we'll see those channel bottoms decline.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 11:00:43 AM

Sector Winners ... Brokers +1.95%, Oil Service +1.31%, Software +1.06%

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:59:11 AM

Sector losers ... Gold Bugs -1.35% and Airline -1.16%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:57:50 AM

Good comment Liz. I think if oil had settled below $49.41 yesterday, Reuters might be saying ... crude oil down 1% with bulls getting flat into the weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:56:01 AM

Disk Drives (DDX.X) 97.86 -0.36% ... QQQQ $35.88 +0.33% ... "oil and water" right now.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:54:30 AM

QQQQ ... not sure where the "keltners" are at, but static DAILY Pivot at Red #5 overlap at $35.72. This is probably closest near-term intra-day support that a bear would want to see violated.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 10:53:56 AM

Volume breadth is still positive, but weaker, with advancing volume ahead of declining volume 1.4:1 on the NYSE and 1.77:1 on the Nasdaq. The TRIN is .7, TRINQ .63, still both in neutral bullish territory.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:52:05 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 10:51:22 AM

The OEX rolls slightly down from the midline level of the QCharts' drawn rising regression channel, now testing first Keltner support at 559.79.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 10:44:33 AM

Session high for Nymex crude at 51.725, +.90 or 1.82%.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 10:42:59 AM

Here's the break of the 7200 tick SMA: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 10:42:29 AM

QQQQ looks like it just failed from a lower high, never touching 36 on this attempt. A break of 35.88 should be enough to get the 30 min cycle channel on a downtick, with a break below 35.77 the goal to start a 30 min channel downphase. 60 min channel support follows at 35.70.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:36:13 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) 24.27 +0.95% .... DAILY Pivots ... 23.50, 23.76, Piv = 24.06, $24.33, $24.63.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:35:02 AM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 98.21 -0.01% .... a tech bear doesn't want to see this thing start to ramp

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:33:38 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link ... recent NH/NL action and early morning readings would have the NASDAQ's 10-day NH/NL ratio reversing up 3 boxes. For those keeping track, the NYSE's 10-day NH/NL ratio reversed up on 05/02/05 (Monday) close.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 10:30:37 AM

Nymex crude oil down to a 45 cent gain at 51.275 Link , finally pulling back from the high at 51.60. The pullback looks flaggy so far, just like the intraday bounce in ten year bonds off the lows, and, for that matter, the pullback in the USD Index off the highs: Link . So far the intermarket relationship has bonds and gold down, oil and the dollar up... equities as well, but not as strong as oil off the highs.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:26:39 AM

Shoot ... on the 10:00 Internals ... I didn't copy today's current NH/NL ratio readings. I'll do that quickly.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 10:25:07 AM

The RLX and TRAN still test upper Keltner resistance. They both look as if they might need a pullback, but in their cases, that wouldn't necessarily be a sign of weakness but just a necessary every-once-in-a-while retracement as long as the pullbacks are small and in a measured back-and-forth pattern. The trouble is that both test double-top levels, so the shape and depth of any pullback will be closely watched. Too deep, and bulls may bail.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:24:12 AM

QQQQ $35.90 +0.39% ... not a "pop and flush" by any means at this point. Quick look at the heatmap has PIXR +9%, SEBL +4.78% ... IACI -1.33%, QLGC -1.5%. Heatmap at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:21:45 AM

When I was updating this morning's 10:00 PRICE levels, almost didn't have to type any new numbers. Very similar to yesterday's morning's prices.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 10:21:28 AM

Bonds have recovered off their lows, though the bounce is so far looking flaggy and uncertain. TNX is down to a big 7.2 bp (1.8% today) gain at 4.234%.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 10:21:17 AM

The OEX tests 559.55 Keltner support, but support begins to look just a touch softer than resistance. That's an iffy conclusion as yet, but keep watching the BIX. Remember that the OEX has potential support from 555.62-557.98.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:21:10 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 10:18:54 AM

The BIX wasn't able to hold onto its bounce level and 358.68-359.32 is now next Keltner resistance, with other resistance just above that. Looking weaker.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 10:12:29 AM

QQQQ testing 7200 tick SMA support now at 35.87, with the 30 min channel bottom edging a cent lower to 35.76. The move above yesterday's high is starting to look like a throwover, but it's still a higher high. Daily cycle bears need a break of 35.52 support, yesterday's low, for a key reversal- but the daily cycle upphase still favors that level holding.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:12:10 AM

VIX.X 13.44 -3.86% ... DAILY Pivot levels ... 12.86, 13.49, Piv= 14.05, 14.68, 15.24.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:11:24 AM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 98.16 -0.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:10:29 AM

Sell Program Premium QQQQ $35.87

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 10:09:02 AM

BIX bouncing back to test just-broken support. TRAN attempting an upside breakout again. RLX at upper resistance, but not attempting a breakout. OEX still climbing the underside of that midline. The BIX looks key to watch. In particular, watch how it handles 359.76-360.76 Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes. If it can jump above those levels on 15-minute closes, then the dip may have been a stop-running type move. If it can't . . . well, you know.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:06:07 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 10:02:41 AM

Volume breadth still favors advancing shares over decliners 2.26:1 on the NYSE and 2.57:1 on the Nasdaq, with the TRIN .66 and the TRINQ .56, both reflecting buying pressure.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:02:18 AM

Disk Drives (DDX.X) 98.34 +0.12% ... SanDisk (SNDK) $24.21 +0.70% ...

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 10:00:59 AM

A Keltner view of the SOX: The SOX has been testing Keltner resistance up to 397.19 (on 15-minute closes), unable as of yet to break above that resistance. Unable to do so, the SOX retreats to test Keltner support, with first support being at 394.86. This is where bulls would most like to see the SOX find support on 15-minute closes, but stronger support may be from 392.91-393.57, and the Keltner picture looks as if the SOX may at least sink partway toward that support if not all the way. Bulls would rather the SOX not drop below 392.63 or so, the 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday-Thursday zoom higher.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 10:00:21 AM

ExxonMobil (XOM) $58.21 +0.70% ... after the jerky delayed open and hitting stop of $58.25, session high has been $58.30. Am tempted to ease back in with a 1/2 bullish in Maverick Tube (MVK) $29.80 +1.15% ... Stock has been hanging around the $29.00 level since we were stopped out a couple of weeks ago. Was talking to an oil service worker out in Kansas two weekends ago and he said he was running pretty much 24/7 delivering pipe and equipment to rigs that were punching holes in NW Kansas as fast as they could.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 9:56:59 AM

OEX pausing at the midline of its rising regression channel again, with the BIX's action of some concern but so far tempered by the sharp gains in RLX-shared components. Careful here, as the two are somewhat tempering the effects of the other in the OEX, but if the RLX rolls down from the resistance it's testing or the BIX bounces and both are headed the same direction, the OEX could move that direction, too. Don't get married to any one belief, but over the very short term what I see is several key indices facing resistance while another is already breaking support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:55:37 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 357.73 -0.88% ... DAILY S1 here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:54:54 AM

Got to get back below this DAILY R1 first though.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:54:23 AM

QQQQ $35.92 .... quick thoughts here. Short full position. If we get trade back at WEEKLY R1 ($35.65) we can cover 1/2 of it, then sit back with a lowered stop, may hold over weekend with 1/2 short position see how oil closes.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 9:54:13 AM

QQQQ is testing support at yesterday's high with the short cycles in a downphase off the employment spike. A move below 35.85 would stop the 30 min upphase, with the next support at 35.77 the last ditch for 30 min cycle bulls. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 9:53:04 AM

The BIX now falls through the support of the likely bear flag that I mentioned earlier.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 9:52:28 AM

The Fed has just announced a 4B weekend repo, for a net drain of 750M for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:51:32 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 358.29 -0.72% ....

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:50:57 AM

Bearish day trade short alert a full position in the QQQQQ $35.95 here, stop $36.20, target $35.55.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 9:48:58 AM

The OEX is still at the midline of its QCharts-drawn rising regression channel, climbing the midline a bit, but not yet able to sustain prices above that midline.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:48:04 AM

General Motors (GM) $31.02 +0.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:46:54 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) $24.32 +1.16% ...

Jane Fox : 5/6/2005 9:46:43 AM

Dateline WSJ The legal woes of Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, the ousted chief executive of American International Group, seem to be expanding. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan have opened an investigation into whether he orchestrated an effort to manipulate the company's stock price in his final weeks as CEO.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 9:45:55 AM

The Fed has a 6B overnight repo expiring today, and the 1.25B bill pass is payable today, for a net of 4.75B expiring. We await the 10AM announcement.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 9:44:53 AM

BIX now at the bottom of its bear-flag-looking formation on its 15-minute chart, testing support.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 9:44:06 AM

TRAN still testing yesterday's high and Keltner resistance that looks relatively firm. Bulls don't want the TRAN to head the same way as the BIX, as it often leads other indices.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:43:50 AM

5-year yield ($FVX.X) up 12 bp at 3.927% ....

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 9:43:04 AM

The RLX stocks are helping to support the OEX, with a strong surge higher in the RLX this morning, but the BIX turned over instead, and the shared component stocks are important to the OEX. We could see chop until the two indices decide to head the same direction. Careful.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:42:46 AM

QQQQ $35.96 +0.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:42:22 AM

Disk Drive Index (ddx.x) 98.70 +0.48% ...

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 9:41:42 AM

Careful, OEX bulls. The BIX has rolled over.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:41:34 AM

Bearish swing trade stop alert for ExxonMobil (XOM) $58.25

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 9:41:59 AM

Nymex crude +.625 here at 51.45. 50-tick chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:39:57 AM

ExxonMobil (XOM) $58.17 +0.64% .... its DAILY Pivot levels are ... $56.76, $57.27, Piv= $57.62 $58.13, $58.48.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 9:39:53 AM

The OEX pauses ahead of next Keltner resistance, pausing at the QCharts-drawn midline of its rising regression channel. A strong security will pulse all the way up through the midline, to the top of the channel, before turning back. A weaker one will get turned back at the midline. Bulls want to see the OEX move all the way to the top of that rising regression channel, now near 564, before turning back to the bottom support, now near 558.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 9:37:54 AM

The TRAN now pauses at Keltner resistance. Just a pause, though, and not a real pullback. Yet.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:37:35 AM

ExxonMobil (XOM $58.12 +0.55% ... released for trade.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:37:00 AM

ExxonMobil (XOM) $58.06 .... order dissemination.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:35:06 AM

ExxonMobil (XOM) looks indicated at $58.50 ... not open for trade at this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 9:34:13 AM

QQQQ found support above yesterday's low, with the 30 and 60 min cycle channels pointed up here, 30 min channel resistance at 36.09. On the daily chart, there's confluence resistance from 36.00-36.20, but the action continues to look bullish on the heels of yesterday's shallow pullback and higher low/higher high. 3 day intraday chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 9:33:59 AM

The TRAN's Keltner resistance looks stronger than the OEX's. The BIX's doesn't look strong at all, and the RLX is configured about like the OEX, now rising toward that first Keltner resistance. Mixed picture, but except for the TRAN, more bullish than anything else. Watch the TRAN, though, as it may be the first to show any weakness.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 9:32:15 AM

The OEX is also rising, not yet having dipped back to test Keltner support. It looks as if it's going to have to do that, but it's been unclear whether it will do it after rising or before. Next Keltner resistance at 561.52 and then at 563.25. Bulls want to see continued 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently down at 558.87.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 9:31:01 AM

TRAN rises immediately toward Keltner resistance and a test of yesterday's high. Could give us a clue what to expect on other indices.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:34:20 AM

General Electric (GE) $35.85 ... also $35.85 pre-market after the conglomerate said it was restaiting earnings for the years 2002 through 2004 after an initial audit found that its accounting for certain hedging transactions did not comply with accounting standards. GE said restatement would result in a noncash increase of $381 million from 2001 through Q1 of 2005.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:26:09 AM

June Crude (cl05m) $51.51 +1.33% (30-minute delayed) ...

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 9:24:31 AM

Gold is getting clocked as TNX climbs, down 5.50 to 425.20 after failing from a high of 432.20. Since the 432-433 confluence broke, every attempt to regain it has failed below 433. Support is at 424, below which 418 and 415 are the next major levels to watch.

Jeff Bailey : 5/6/2005 9:21:07 AM

Bearish swing trade stop adjustment alert ... for ExxonMobil (XOM) ... let's edge our stop up $0.15 to $58.25 for the first few minutes of trade.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 9:05:08 AM

The OEX has entered a long-term S/R zone carried forward from a monthly chart, with the OEX usually chopping around once it enters that zone: Link We can hope that all the chopping around that the OEX did in April before entering this zone completed the necessary chopping time needed, but I wouldn't count on that. The 38.2% retracement of the entire bear-market decline is within that zone, too, so it has long-term significance.

It may again be time to take quick profits. Until proven otherwise, I'd assume that the OEX will likely turn down from the top of that zone, at the 562.80-563.20-ish level, and would find support and turn up from the bottom of that zone, near 555.60, and I'd assume some choppy trading conditions while within that zone.

At yesterday's close, the OEX appeared ready to rise to test 561.39 Keltner resistance, perhaps after a test of 558.50-ish support. If that support holds and yesterday's high is retested, look for signs of a rollover. Be ready to jump out quickly if you're proven wrong. Be ready to protect profits near 558 (the bottom of the rising regression channel from this week) and then again at 555.40-556.17 (Keltner support) if you're right. Don't trade at all if you're afraid of choppy trading conditions, because that's what I'm afraid you'll see.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 8:56:25 AM

Daily chart updated to show the amazing move in ten year note yields with TNX blowing out the highs of the past 6 sessions: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 8:47:31 AM

Bonds have plunged back to the lows, TNX up 8 bps or 1.92% to 4.26%. QQQQ is pressing higher as well, now up .18 at 35.94. The action here suggests that bonds will decline as equities rise, with the daily cycle upphase reasserting itself for TNX after a very choppy run so far. But the upphase for equities is further advanced than it is for ten year note yields, and so this relationship may not hold consistently for the duration. For now, however, weakness in treasury bonds is equating with strength in equities.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 8:34:19 AM

QQQQ spiked a bad print to 36.08, back to 35.90 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 8:33:17 AM

TNX is up 1.54% at 4.227%, edging off its initial spike high, but with ZN bonds down 17/32 at 111 9/32. QQQQ is up .17 at 35.93, ES trading 1179.75 off a high of 1182.25. Crude oil is holding a session high of 51.50, euros at a session low.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 8:32:01 AM

Bonds have just dived on the data, equities spiking up.

Headlines:

US APRIL NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 274,000 V 194,000 EXPECTED

U.S. APRIL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REMAINS AT 5.2%

U.S. APRIL AVERAGE HOURLY WAGES UP 0.3%

U.S. APRIL AVERAGE WORKWEEK RISES TO 33.9

U.S. APRIL AGGREGAGE HOURS UP 0.9%

U.S. APRIL MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS FALL 6,000

U.S. FEB., MARCH PAYROLLS REVISED UP BY 93,000

U.S. AVERAGE HOURLY WAGES UP 2.7% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

U.S. APRIL SERVICE-PRODUCING JOBS UP 229,000

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 8:16:28 AM

Nymex crude is up .65 to a session high at 51.475, with ES printing a high at 1178.5, NQ at 1459. QQQQ is now up a dime to 35.86. Bonds have fallen to negative territory with a low of 111 3/4, 15 minutes to go until the jobs report at 8:30.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/6/2005 7:20:17 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1176.25, NQ flat at 1456.7, YM 10358 and QQQQ +.04 at 35.80. Gold is flat at 430.70, silver -.009 at 7.048, ten year notes -3/64 at 111 25/32 and crude oil is +.575 at 51.40.

We await the 8:30 release of nonfarm payrolls, est. 175K, the unemployment rate, est. 5.2%, hourly earnings, est. .2%, average workweek, est. 33.7 and at 3PM, consumer credit, est. 6.0B.

Linda Piazza : 5/6/2005 7:13:21 AM

Good morning. Last night, the Nikkei was open for the first day since Monday, and it charged higher, making up for global gains made while it was closed for Golden Week holidays. Most other Asian bourses gained, too. Also of importance in Asia, a report suggested that U.S. and Chinese economic officials would meet May 9 to discuss foreign exchange matters and other issues. European markets turn down this morning ahead of U.S. data, but the FTSE 100 benefited from Blair's election win. Despite drops in most European bourses, our futures cling to positive or unchanged levels. As of 6:46 EST, gold was unchanged, but crude was higher by $0.51 to $51.34. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei had some catching up to do last night. Opening above 11,100, the Nikkei charged higher, closing at its high of the day, up 190.06 points or 1.73%, at 11,192.17. Exporters rose, with automakers continuing to benefit from their strong showing when U.S. car sales figures were released earlier in the week. Throughout Asia, tech stocks were helped by Intel's results.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but with more gaining than losing. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.68%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 1.24%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.61%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.20%. China's Shanghai Composite was still closed for the Golden Week holiday.

Many European markets decline ahead of the U.S. payrolls number. ECRI's March eurozone inflation gauge eased to 95.5 from the previous month's revised-higher 95.6, with lower inflation in France, Italy and Spain driving the small drop. Germany's number spiked higher, however. Overall, the number reaffirmed Trichet's belief that inflation will remain in control over the next months.

Although automakers in Asia benefited from the hope they would increase market share in the U.S., debt downgrades of Ford and GM yesterday and the rise in crude costs today hit European automakers. Tech stocks did follow through on Asian strength. Attention also focused on Unilever, reporting 24% gains in profit growth for the first quarter, but failing to provide guidance for the year. Although some companies that did not give guidance for the year have been punished lately, Unilever's stock climbed in early European trading. Other stocks reacting to news included Heineken, declining after it revealed that it would buy Russia's Patra brewery; telecommunications equipment manufacturer Marconi, dropping heavily after announcing that BT Group had chosen it as a network partner; luxury goods retailer Pinault-Printemps-Redoute, benefiting from an upgrade by Deutsche Bank; and yesterday's U.S. IPO, investment bank Lazard Ltd., being the subject of an article speculating on its interest in a Paris listing.

In the U.K., the Labour party won a record third term although its majority was reduced, and the FTSE 100 was one of the few bourses to climb this morning. It's currently just above the flat-line. As of 6:58 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 1.10 points or 0.02%, at 4,903.40. The CAC 40 had dropped 13.17 points or 0.33%, to 4,006.18. The DAX had dropped 17.61 points or 0.41%, to 4,281.90.

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