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OI Technical Staff : 5/9/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 5:05:39 PM

General Motors (GM) $31.33 +1.85% ... just after the close the world's largest automaker said it was keeping its $0.50 per share quarterly dividend. The dividend will by distributed on June 10 to shareholders of record on April 19. The stock rose to $31.91 in the extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 4:51:41 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 4:26:10 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 4:22:47 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... volume was anemic at the NASDAQ with just 1.44 billion traded.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 4:15:11 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $103.75, SPY $117.84

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 4:06:44 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link ... Today's Activity ... swing trade put four (4) Google GOOG May $220 Puts (GOU-QD) at the offer of $1.65. Stop goes at $0.85 on the options, targeting $217.00 on the stock.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 3:55:56 PM

Crude oil's up to 52.125, but QQQQ and NQ have raced back up to the session highs here on a little burst of volume. 30 and 60 min channel resistance is at 36.10.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 3:50:46 PM

Honeywell (HON) $36.88 +0.08% ... held onto Friday's gains despite no confirmation of a buyout offer from United Technologies (UTX) $103.00 +0.95%

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 3:39:21 PM

Lucent (LU) $2.93 +13.17% ... session high came at psychologically round $3.00, just after the 02:00 PM EDT hour, then saw some selling back to $2.86.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 3:39:04 PM

QQQQ is hugging the 72 period SMA at 35.95, trading both sides of the line as a corrective short cycle downphase continues to go nowhere. The 30 min cycle is sideways but edging lower, with the weak 60 min cycle upphase stalling out. The daily cycle upphase continues, but it's growing overbought and appears to be weakening, with today's range printing the first lower low in over a week. In short, this looks like a corrective short cycle downphase within a corrective 30 and 60 min cycle upphase within a soon-to-expire daily cycle upphase. No wonder volume's so low- up to 57.3M QQQQs traded today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 3:37:15 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) ... settled up $1.07, or 2.10% at $52.03. May provide some dampening on broader equity market bullish enthusiasm. Settlement here is juuust above the 50% retracement of bullishly fit 38.2% ($49.42). After intra-day kiss of WEEKLY Pivot ($50.66) support, today's trade looks bullish for crude on near-term basis. That is, if failure to settle below $49.42 last week wasn't enough.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 3:31:09 PM

I struggle for words to describe today's trade, or gleen any "words of wisdom."

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 3:30:31 PM

Volume breadth has weakened with price, but still remains positive with advancing volume leading declining volume 2.33:1 on the NYSE and 1.3:1 for the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq TRINQ has edged up to 1.04, the NYSE TRIN still in neutral bullish territory at .71.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 3:11:56 PM

Google (GOOG) $225.80 -0.97% ... slips below WEEKLY Pivot ($226.04) ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $216.37, $222.21, Piv = $226.04, $231.88, $235.71.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 3:08:44 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 3:01:44 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 2:59:48 PM

QQQQ held the midpoint SMA on the bounce from 35.91, currently edging back up on light volume, up less than 8 cents from its premarket levels. This is either an accumulation or distribution zone, with narrow range on little volume as everyone waits for everyone else to make the first move- feels like op-ex week, but that's still a week away. The daily and 30 min cycle upphases are both reaching overbought territory, suggesting limited upside from here, and while the 60 min cycle is still pointing north, it's looking weak and is stalled on the pullback from the high. Updated intraday chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 2:43:12 PM

Although volume has been thin in recent sessions, today is particularly light, with just 52.1M QQQQs traded so far, not even half the 105M average daily volume. Friday's very quiet session saw 77.4M QQQQs change hands.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 2:32:24 PM

Crude oil just closed 2.5 cents off the session high, at 52.025, +2.11% or 1.075. Updated 50 tick chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 2:28:23 PM

Google Inc. (GOOG) $226.86 -0.50% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 2:27:46 PM

Swing trade bearish put alert ... buying four (4) of the Google GOOG May $220 Puts (GOU-QD) at the offer of $1.65, stop $0.85, target $217.00 on the stock

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 2:22:57 PM

Crude oil hit a new high at 51.80 and QQQQ has pulled back from its 36.05 high to 35.98 here. A move below the 35.90-.92 confluence will stall the 30 min channel upphase, and should turn it down after about 5-10 minutes. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 2:17:31 PM

Nymex crude is up .65 here at 51.60 with 13 minutes left of the regular session.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 2:13:15 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 2:08:54 PM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 2:04:51 PM

The NYSE is leading the charge, with 2.91 advancing shares for each declining and the TRIN down at .68. Compare to the Nasdaq, with 1.87 advancing shares for each declining and the TRINQ at the high end of neutral at .94.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 2:02:42 PM

Nymex crude is up 35 cents at 51.30 here, stabilizing after a sharp rise off the lows. 4 day 50-tick chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 2:02:16 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 2:00:04 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $24.78 -1.31% .... hugging session/afternoon low.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 1:59:59 PM

Session highs across the board, with no change from ten year treasuries, TNX still up 1.2 bp at 4.278%. QQQQ touched a high of 36.05, with 3 min channel resistance up to 36.08 and resistance at Friday's high now in play. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 1:59:25 PM

Everything in the green except Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 98.92 -0.04% with fractional loss.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 1:55:13 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) $51.30 +0.66% ... floor trade low so far comes at approx. 12:40-12:45 PM EDT at $50.65 and WEEKLY Pivot. Buyers were there and with QQQQ $36.03, might be some bearish stop hunting going on. Don't see what looks like any anxious long liquidators in the QQQQ though.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 1:45:39 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.80 +0.35% ... "matched up" with the QQQQ in the MONTHLY Pivot retracement.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 1:43:38 PM

There's big QQQQ volume for a change, with 1M shares just traded within a 3 minute bar, a new high at 36.03 printing. Friday's high is a few cents away, above which the daily candle will become a bullish engulfing/outside reversal.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 1:43:00 PM

QQQQ $36.03 +0.45% ... high of the day here. #2 most active at 44.4 million.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 1:40:07 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 1:32:18 PM

Volume breadth is slightly weaker within bullish territory, 2.71 advancing NYSE shares for each declining, 1.63 advancing Nasdaqs for each declining. The TRIN is at .65, the TRINQ higher to .96, at the upper end of neutral.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 1:22:41 PM

QQQQ intraday chart at this Link , holding a 10 cent range below 36.00. Volume has almost stopped for the past hour, with 41.9M shares traded today. If this is a bull flag, then the break of 36.00 should be goood for an aggressive test of Friday's high. A break down below 35.90 will target 35.85, below which this uptick in the 30 min cycle should whipsaw sharply. The short cycles are in downphase, so far a weak one, suggesting only corrective and potentially bullish price action.

Jane Fox : 5/9/2005 1:18:53 PM

Dateline WSJ
Treasury Secretary John Snow joined the chorus of voices calling for China to cut its currency loose from its strict dollar peg, though it's unlikely that China will be swayed. U.S. manufacturers claim China's dollar peg keeps its yuan artificially undervalued, feeding the flood of Chinese goods into the U.S. Politicians here, feeling the heat, often call for China to float the yuan, but China has resisted, saying a float would hurt its troubled financial sector. Beijing has made apparent efforts to get ready for an eventual currency float, but many experts doubt it will take any action for quite some time. Some observers worry that a currency revaluation could hurt China's economy, setting it up for a "hard landing" after a period of runaway growth. Others point out that a free-floating yuan will likely make no difference to the U.S. trade deficit -- in fact, it could make the deficit worse for a time, by raising the price of Chinese-made goods, which will almost certainly continue to fill the shelves of Wal-Mart and other retailers.

Jane Fox : 5/9/2005 1:17:20 PM

Dateline WSJ William Higgins, a New York Stock Exchange seat holder, sued the exchange in an effort to block its pending merger with electronic trading platform Archipelago Holdings. Though the value of exchange seats has skyrocketed since the merger was announced last month, Mr. Higgins thinks seat holders are getting a raw deal and wants open bidding to drum up more favorable terms. He is also suing Goldman Sachs, which advised both the NYSE and Archipelago in the merger, saying the firm had a conflict of interest. Goldman Sachs, which underwrote Archipelago's initial public stock offering last year, owns 15.6% of the company. Archipelago shares fell more than 1%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 1:14:01 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) $51.00 +0.07% (30-minute delayed) ... up 4 cents. WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $47.07, $49.03, Piv= $50.67, $52.63, $54.27.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 1:12:24 PM

The auction results are in, with the 3 month bills generating a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.18, high rate of 2.85%, the 6 month auction with 2.32 bids tendered for each accepted and a high rate of 3.12%. Indirect bidders took 25% of the 28B total. Ten year notes are flat, with the TNX down .2 bps to a 1.2 bp gain at 4.279%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 1:10:53 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 1:01:47 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 12:55:59 PM

Ten year bonds remain weak despite a minor uptick in the short cycle oscillators, with TNX still up 1.4 bps at 4.28%. The auction results are due within the next 10 minutes. QQQQ remains pegged at the highs on very light volume here, with the 30 min cycle top advancing to 36.06. The auction results could spur a move, but at the moment, volume is light during what is turning out to be a very light day overall, 44.5M QQQQ shares traded so far. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 12:43:43 PM

Session low for Nymex crude just now at 50.80, -.15.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 12:42:18 PM

McDonald's (MCD) $29.96 +1.97% ... stock higher after company reported 2.8% rise in April same store sales, despite a 0.7% decline in Europe. Marketing in U.S. was behind a 5.4% total sales increase in U.S.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 12:40:11 PM

General Motors (GM) $31.15 +1.26% ... Kerkorian's Tracinda starts tender offer to acquire up to 28 million shares of GM common stock at $31 per share, for total purchase price of about $868 million. Tender offer will expire at 5 PM EDT on 06/07/05.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 12:37:19 PM

The Treasury is auctioning 28B in t-bills today, comprised of 15B in 3 month and and 13B in 6 month bills. The results will be reported shortly after 1PM. Currently, ten year notes are weaker, just off the session lows, witn the ten year note yield up 1.4 bps at 4.28%. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 12:24:10 PM

QQQQ's pressing the highs here, with a current high at 36.00 and a light retreat to 35.97. The short cycle oscillators are approaching overbought territory but are not yet maxxed out. As the price holds above the 72 period SMA at 35.84, the upturned 30 min channel will continue to strengthen. The real test will come at Friday's 36.07 high, above which bulls will achieve a key outside reversal day if they can do it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 12:23:47 PM

Most Actives ... LU $2.80 +8.52%, QQQQ $35.97 +0.3%, AMTD $13.70 +21.13%, INTC $24.55 +0.24%, MSFT $25.21 -0.03%, SPY $117.73 +0.54%, CSCO $18.07 +0.27%, SIRI $5.42 +0.74%, SYMC $18.56 -4.03%, GLW $15.22 +3.11%

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 12:15:46 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 12:07:36 PM

Volume breadth back to positive on both exchanges, 2.48 advancing NYSE shares for each declining and 1.55 advancing for each declining on the Nasdaq. The TRIN and TRINQ are both neutrally bullish at .64 and .79 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 12:02:15 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 12:00:50 PM

Gold has recovered its losses, up 20 cents to 427.30 here, off a low of 425.40, while silver has added 2.1% or 14.6 cents to 7.113. The miners are fractionally negative here, while crude oil is up .25 or .49% at 51.20.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 11:59:36 AM

DIA $103.65 +0.21% ... little "zone of resistance" from $103.64-$103.81. QQQQ $35.93 +0.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 11:47:35 AM

Great Atlantic (GAP) $18.59 +9.22% ... another strong session. "Couch Potato" found a bullish one here.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 11:45:18 AM

QQQQ pulling back from its first touch of upper 30 and 60 min channel resistance: Link . A break of Friday's high would be a very bullish development, a key outside reversal after this morning's lower low.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 11:41:53 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 359.77 +0.71% ... session high, but still just under DAILY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 11:40:52 AM

Nymex crude oil is up .20 at 51.15, off a high of 51.625.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 11:40:45 AM

VIX.X 13.89 -1.13% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 11:39:31 AM

NH/NL data set for NYSE and NASDAQ at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 11:36:34 AM

Ten year treasuries are holding steady ahead of this afternoon's auctions, with TNX currently up .7 bps at 4.279%. QQQQ is testing the 35.90-.92 ressitance zone, just below 30 and 60 in channel resistance at 35.96. Link The short cycles have turned up from oversold here, testing the session highs.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 11:28:56 AM

General Motors (GM) $31.04 +0.94% ... implied volatility was "high" on 05/04/05 and a bear would have been better off with a pure short of the stock than the puts as volatility comes out of options as the Sep $30 Puts (GM-UF) bid break even at $3.50.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 11:23:48 AM

NYSE NH/NL ratio chart at this Link ... some sign of BULLISH divergence from the NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio. On 04/07/05 the NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) closed at 7,227 and for a couple of days before and after 04/07 was trading either side of 7,200. 5-day NH/NL "peaked" at 67.5 on 04/08 with 10-day NH/NL ratio of 53.0.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 11:22:34 AM

QQQQ is approaching the 72 period SMA here, back above Friday's low. If it breaks, next upside confluence is close above at 35.90-.92: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 11:10:51 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 11:08:57 AM

QQQQ intraday update at this Link with 30 min support down to 35.57 and the 72 period SMA down to 35.82. 30 and 60 min channel resistance has begun to decline as well, with cycle juxtaposition resolving itself to the downside.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 11:03:14 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 11:01:01 AM

QQQQ $35.73 -0.36% ... most active options with a higher VIX.X ... June 35 put 9,775 ; May $36 Put 9,074 ; May $35 Put 7,758 ; May $36 Call 6,364 ; May $35 Call 1,860.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 10:58:33 AM

VIX.X 14.30 +1.77% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.79, 13.37, Piv= 13.69, 14.27, 14.58.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 10:45:37 AM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 98.51 -0.45% ... still wavering in our "zone of support" from 97.74-100.37. SanDisk (SNDK) $24.88 -0.91% ... gives back some of Friday's rebound.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 10:39:58 AM

QQQQ $35.75 -0.30% ... 30-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement and Keltner bands using Linda's QCharts settings at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 10:37:55 AM

I need to step away from 20 minutes here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 10:35:01 AM

Isonics (ISON) $3.22 +23.75% ... breaks above its 200-day SMA. Water testing/purification I believe.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 10:32:27 AM

Session high for Nymex crude here at 51.475.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 10:25:54 AM

Volume breadth has gone negative for the Nasdaq, 1.28 declining shares for each advancing, while the NYSE has 1.25 advancing shares for each declining.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 10:24:17 AM

QQQQ update at this Link with price holding near the lows. The 30 min cycle channel has rolled over- but the increase in range has the upper channel band rising to meet the 60 min top at 35.97. Direction is still up for grabs on this basis, but it looks bearish to me with price below Friday's low and the lower high for the day. If it sticks, this would be the first lower low and lower high in a week.

Tab Gilles : 5/9/2005 10:22:50 AM

$FVX 5 Year Treasury Note Yield Chart signaling it wants to head higher. Link

EVV Eaton Vance Limited Duration Will most likely sell on rise in $FVX yield in a daily chart. Link

However, a weekly EVV chart is indicating EVV has upside? Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 10:19:34 AM

Session low just now for Nymex crude oil at 50.90, down .05.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 10:16:55 AM

Friday's Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 10:15:21 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 10:12:25 AM

There go Friday's lows, with a lower high as well so far. Price is leading the 30 and 60 min channels lower. Next support in the 35.60-.65 confluence.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 10:06:57 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 10:05:35 AM

Ten year notes are holding just off their lows, with TNX up 0.8 bps at 4.274%. QQQQ is back to the lows, rolling over from below the 72 period SMA at 35.85. 30 min channel support is down to Friday's low at 35.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 10:01:19 AM

Wholesale Inventories +.4% vs, .7% exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 9:53:19 AM

The Fed has just announced a 7.5B overnight repo to replace the 4B expiring, for a net add of 3.5B for the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 9:51:41 AM

30 and 60 min channel support are being tested now on QQQQ. If bears can prevent a bounce for the next 5-10 minutes or so, these channels should begin to roll over. Confluence support is at 35.75. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 9:47:24 AM

14 minutes until Wholesale Inventories, est. .7%, prior .6%. Also, the Fed has a 4B weekend repo with which to deal.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 9:45:08 AM

So far, volume breadth favors advancing shares over declining 1.76:1 on the NYSE and 1.93:1 on the Nasdaq. As on Friday, volume breadth is in neutral territory, .94 for the TRIN and more bullish at .63 for the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 9:44:29 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 9:35:24 AM

Still no direction from QQQQ. Updated intraday chart at this Link with the 30 min channel narrowed to less than 20 cents- the narrowest I can recall having seen it.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 9:29:11 AM

After settling up 13 cents at $50.96 on Friday, June Crude Oil Futures (cl05m) $51.23 +0.52% are up 27 cents.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 9:34:32 AM

Ameritrade (AMTD) $11.31 ... higher at $14.12 and atop this morning's most actively traded after E-Trade (ET) $11.93 makes offer to buy its rival for more than $5.5 billion. Both the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal are reporting that Ameritrade has been in talks to buy TD Waterhouse Group. Comment: If I (Jeff Bailey) were long shares of Ameritrade, I'd be selling long shares of AMTD with thought if they do make offer for TD Waterhouse, it may drag the shares lower.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 9:19:18 AM

QQQQ $35.86 ... up 2 cents at $35.88. Updated daily interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 9:18:19 AM

Equities are holding their light gains, showing no directional bias so far. This is likely the result of the opposed 30 and 60 min cycles noted at Friday's close. QQQQ is pegged right on the 7200 tick SMA line, perfectly centered between the flat 30 and 60 min cycle channels. A break above 35.95 or below 35.77 for 5-10 minutes should give us a sense of which way the deadlock wants to break. A failure to reverse from a touch of those levels should be directional- but currently all of my indicators are flat and neutral from net sideways drift that held for all of Friday afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 9:17:47 AM

Pivot Matrix for this week found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2005 9:16:33 AM

Program Trading Levels for Monday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.71 and set for program selling at $-0.28.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 8:45:17 AM

Ten year bonds continue to hold at the lows, with June gold joining in, currently at a session low of 425.50, -1.60. There's a lower high today at 427.20, with price weakening below the unbroken 432-433 resistance zone. Next support is at 424.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 8:36:30 AM

Linda will be out all day today.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 8:29:58 AM

Bonds are weak again this morning, with TNX quoted +0.6 bps at 4.272%. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link with today's minutes-old daily candle printing in the upper end of Friday's tall bullish engulfing.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 8:14:46 AM

The Bank of England left rates unchanged at 4.75% for the ninth consecutive month, as expected.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/9/2005 7:39:21 AM

Equities spiked ahead of Europe's open and were sold back down, then again ahead of London and sold down again. Currently, equities are up at their opening levels last night, ES trading 1172.75, NQ 1458.5, YM 10346 and QQQQ flat at 35.86. Gold is down 1.1 at 426, silver -.034 at a session low of 6.933, ten year notes -3/32 at 110 29/32 and crude oil +.375 at 51.325.

We await the 10AM release of Wholesale Inventories for March, est. .7%, prior .6%.

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