Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 10:44:42 PM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.96 and set for program selling at $-0.36. QCharts users can set their alerts using the symbol $prem.x

OI Technical Staff : 5/10/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:54:23 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $34.06 -1.53% ... last tick in extended session was $34.00. Company said it will launch a new subscription-based music download service tomorrow, which offers unlimited downloads for a flat monthly fee and is aimed at competing with similar offerings from Napster (NAPS) $6.34 -0.78%, RealNetworks (RNWK) $7.30 -0.81% and Apple Computer's (AAPL) $36.42 -1.48% iTunes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:35:10 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) down 35 cents at $51.72.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:34:39 PM

e-mini S&P (es05m) down 0.75 point at 1,165.50.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:33:50 PM

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05m) down 2.0 points at 1,452.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:32:18 PM

Taiwan Weighted ($TWII) Link down 37 points, or -0.63% at 5,913.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:29:55 PM

Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) Link down 79 points, or -0.71% at 11,080.60.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 8:54:48 PM

Google (GOOG) $227.80 +0.78% ... announces it is launching its low-cost mini-search package in Britain to allow business with up to 100,000 documents to search. Customers can buy the "Google Mini" for 1,995 pounds, or $3,753 from its online store on Wednesday. Google cut the price of its U.S. "Google Mini" version to $2,995 from $4,995 in April after launching the product in January.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 7:45:48 PM

QQQQ updated 30-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 7:38:07 PM

QQQQ ... Linda may "speak the truth" regarding her 02:37:38. Some of the work we did last week with the MONTHLY/WEEKLY Pivot matrix would also suggest such action. As such, I would look to close out the current swing trade short in the QQQQ should we near the MONTHLY Pivot/DAILY S2 correlation tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 7:07:02 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) down 27 cents at $51.80

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 7:05:54 PM

e-mini S&P (es05m) unchanged at 1,166.25

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 7:04:40 PM

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05m) unchanged at 1,454.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 7:01:34 PM

Deutsche Bank (DB) $79.58 -3.24% ... reported as the broker that was primary broker in the "hedged" long General Motors (GM) bonds and short the equity. It might as well have been me. Made so much sense until Mr. Kerkorian showed up.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 5:43:49 PM

QQQQ $35.77 -0.72% ... post-market high/low has been $35.83-$35.65. Ticking $35.72 here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 5:47:50 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $18.21 (unch) ... post-market high/low has been $18.47-$17.99. Ticking $18.30 here. Beat bottom-line EPS estimates by a penny. On pro-forma basis (ex-items) earned $1.41 billion, or $0.23 per share on sales of $6.19 billion. Top-line consensus was $6.16 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 5:28:34 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 4:57:39 PM

Pixar (PIXR) $48.40 -1.26% ... Instinet at $47.85 x $48.00

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 4:55:53 PM

Dreamworks Animation (DWA) $36.50 -5.19% ... released for trade at $31.20.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 4:48:15 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 4:41:02 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 4:29:12 PM

Pixar (PIXR) $48.40 -1.26% ... $47.70 extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 4:25:55 PM

Dreamworks Animation (DWA) $36.50 -5.19% .... halted. Big miss here. Reported Q1 revenue of $167 million, with cost of revenue at $80 million. Net income was $46 million or $0.44 per share. Consensus was for $0.58 per share.

Jane Fox : 5/10/2005 4:22:35 PM

This could have been why we saw the market drop as dramatically as it did.

Dateline WSJ Talk that a large London-based hedge fund is liquidating added to the heap; Deutsche Bank fell 3% amid speculation that it is somehow involved with the hedge fund. While there was no confirmation about why the hedge fund may be liquidating, some speculated the fund may have had a large trade on the stock and bonds of General Motors. Last Wednesday, GM's shares soared 18% when billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorkian's Tracinda Corp. said it planned to raise its stake in the auto maker to 9%. The following day, GM's bonds were downgraded to "junk" status by Standard & Poor's.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 4:20:09 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... swing trade sold covered calls on the Semiconductor HOLDRs with two (2) SMH Aug $35 Call (SMH-HG) at the bid of $0.65.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 4:04:46 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) went out unchanged at $18.21. Waiting on earnings. WEEKLY Pivot levels ... 16.78, 17.40, Piv= $17.78, 18.40, 18.78.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 4:02:27 PM

QQQQ goes out at $35.77 -0.72% ... DAILY Pivot Levels for tomorrow ... $35.44, $35.61, Piv= $35.78, $35.95, $36.12.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 3:58:23 PM

Google (GOOG) $227.29 +0.57% ... mounts late charge toward the close.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 3:59:10 PM

The OEX looks as if it attempted a bounce up toward the 555.60-ish level, trying to erase the breakdown signal and move back into the 555.60-563.30-ish S/R level, but it didn't quite make it.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 3:49:18 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) according to NYMEX, settled up 4 cents at $52.07.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 3:46:34 PM

QQQQ $35.67 -0.99% ... didn't like that re-test of DAILY Pivot did it? Some afternoon selling at DAILY S1. Still no test of WEEKLY Pivot ($35.59) at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 3:44:14 PM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 393.56 -1.24% ... tested WEEKLY Pivot for 1st time at 03:00-03:05.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 3:39:56 PM

QQQQ is retesting the low after aborting its bounce at a lower high below 35.75. So far, the 35.60-.65 confluence has not been broken, but the 30 and 60 min channels continue to point lower so long as price holds below 35.80, the current location of the 72 period SMA. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 3:37:13 PM

The OEX now looks even more vulnerable to the 551.37-552 zone, barring a strong bounce, with a 15-minute close above 555.36 needed to erase that target. It will soon be time to make a decision about holding overnight. If the OEX should reach that 551-552 zone this afternoon, it could bounce, although the ascending regression channel it's been building since the April low suggests a 550-ish low remains possible without violating that Keltner support. At this point, it's possible that the 200-sma/-ema's would now be resistance again on any retest of that resistance, but there's just nothing guaranteed.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 3:36:07 PM

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $67.48 -1.01% ... NY AG Spitzer closes an investigation concerning the company's marketing practices. Had been looking into potential anticompetitive practices in surgical instrument sales to hospitals.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 3:33:19 PM

Oilgear Co. (OLGR) $9.25 +23.33% ... surging here after reporting Q1 sales $26.0 million versus $21.3 million year ago. Q1 EPS $+0.21 vs. $+0.05 year ago.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 3:25:06 PM

Once again, the OEX has not yet been able to climb back above the Keltner breakdown level, but yet doesn't fall away from this level. This has been about what I've expected today, as the potential support has been so thickly layered that I thought the further declines might be limited, but too much further and the OEX will fall toward 551-552 of its own weight.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 3:16:46 PM

Crude oil has reopened, currently -.30 at 51.775.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 3:14:43 PM

Volume breadth is down to 4.71 declining NYSE shares for each advancing, 2.84:1 for Nasdaq declining volume. The TRIN is above 2.02, TRINQ much tamer at 1.23. QQQQ is bouncing from a low of 35.62, but the 30 and 60 min channels are pointed south here, the clearest orientation they've displayed in several sessions.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 3:10:56 PM

Another make-or-break moment for the OEX as it comes back up to retest the breakdown level, needing to recapture 555.09 on 15-minute closes to erase that signal. Lots of these moments today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 3:10:17 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 3:04:36 PM

Those who might have entered an OEX bearish position today on the rollover might consider taking partial profit here and setting the rest to breakeven, but the situation doesn't yet seem to warrant exiting the whole position. I sure wouldn't let a profitable position turn unprofitable, though, not in this climate.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 3:03:12 PM

03:00 Market Watch Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 3:02:34 PM

VIX alert 15.05 +9.45% ... would be just above QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 3:02:20 PM

QQQQ now testing 35.60-.64 confluence: Link . Monday and Friday's lows have now been broken, a lower low and lower high for the day so far.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 3:02:02 PM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,163.86, DIA $102.61, QQQQ $35.63.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 2:59:31 PM

So far, the OEX isn't yet erasing that breakdown signal, so from a Keltner basis, it's vulnerable to 551.43. As I've mentioned all day, treat these potential downside targets with a degree of skepticism. There's no signal to go long, though, something I personally wouldn't feel comfortable doing right now.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 2:58:14 PM

Google (GOOG) $226.32 +0.15% ... just tested WEEKLY Pivot. Bears want weakness and a possible reverse h/s pattern failure. 30-minute interval chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 2:55:49 PM

Bonds are marching higher into the cash close, with TNX down 5.6 bps at 4.222%, a 1.31% decline today. Yesterday's small shooting star doji forms an island top on today's breakaway gap down, but the decline has only retraced part of Friday's strong gains: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 2:49:38 PM

The OEX has again created a Keltner-style breakdown signal and again set a potential downside target, now near 551.47. Resistance again looks strong, now near 557.85, but bears want to see a rollover here, from just above 555. Not sure it's going to happen as the OEX tests long-term historical support.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 2:44:46 PM

So far, yesterday's low held for QQQQ, despite the lower high put in today.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 2:43:54 PM

Volume breadth has turned back deeper into bearish territory, 4.17:1 in favor of declining volume on the NYSE, 2.81 on the Nasdaq. The TRIN is 1.86, TRINQ 1.24.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 2:42:54 PM

New LOD for the OEX, and it's again threatening a new breakdown signal. It's below the 200-sma, but bears should be wary of a quick bounce back above it. I'm more bearish than bullish today, but still hyper-aware of this chop zone and potential support.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 2:38:33 PM

QQQQ has broken the 72 period SMA and is now testing 30 min channel support 4 cents above the session low. Below 35.72, key support at 35.60-.65 is in play. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 2:37:38 PM

I mentioned last week that once the OEX enters the current zone in which it trades that it tends to chop around for days or weeks, and it's certainly been doing that. It's probably now reaching the minimal number of days during which it's historically chopped around once entering this zone, but it can chop around even longer. For weeks, at times. Take profits quickly while the OEX is within this zone. With that said, the OEX comes down for another test of the day's low, and a test of the breakdown level.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 2:36:40 PM

Oil ... Sudan's Foreign Minister see county's oil exports surging to 2 million barrels per day in 2008. Expects 500,000 barrels per day in August 2005.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 2:34:35 PM

Global ... Mexico's 91-day Cetes yield rises 0.01 percentage point to yield 10.01%.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 2:34:24 PM

A retest of the day's low still remains a possibility for the OEX. It's now slightly below the 200-ema again. Keltner support ranges from 555.65-556.16, and perhaps looks slightly stronger than it did earlier when tested. Resistance remains strong, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 2:32:30 PM

Nymex crude oil closed lower by .05 at 51.975, off a high of 52.025 and a low of 51.64. Updated 50-tick 4-day chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 2:29:02 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) $51.95 -0.15% (30-minute delayed) ... turns red here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 2:28:21 PM

Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 182.90 -1.26% ... reversal of fortune after morning trade higher at 186.48. WEEKLY Pivot fast approaches at 182.05.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 2:26:58 PM

Cummins (CUM) $67.66 -0.14% Link ... at annual shareholders' meeting ... backs 2005 EPS guidance of $9.00-$9.20 with engines meeting 2007 U.S. emission standards set by EPA.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 2:23:58 PM

Session high for ten year notes here, with TNX now down 4.6 bps at 4.232%. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 2:23:50 PM

The OEX retests the Keltner line currently at 557.30 with the 200-ema just below at 556.99. The OEX looks more vulnerable to a retest of the day's low now, but that's still not a given, especially with the OEX clinging to that Keltner support line.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 2:18:54 PM

QQQQ now hangs 3 cents above the 72 period SMA, with a pending short cycle downphase if it can break 35.83. Crude oil has broken to a new low at 51.65, currently back to 51.85 with 17 minutes to go in the daytime session.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 2:12:46 PM

The OEX reached up to pierce the converging Keltner resistance and now turns down, but not far yet as it attempts to hold above the 200-ema. A retest of the day's low, at least, looks possible, but until the OEX begins producing 15-minute closes below the Keltner line currently at 557.26, the Keltner picture could still change.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 2:11:10 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link ... slightly more NL at the NASDAQ than yesterday's tally. Same at NYSE. Two hours left to go today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 2:02:37 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 1:59:17 PM

Nymex crude has pulled down to a session low of 51.90 here, 12.5 cents in the red. It's going to take a rocket launch to repeat the recent string of ramp-ups into the 2:30 close.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 1:53:24 PM

Google (GOOG) $226.68 +0.29% ... screen capture minutes ago on 30-minute interval. C'mon trend. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 1:47:39 PM

QQQQ $35.91 -0.33% ... updated 30-min interval chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 1:45:01 PM

Session high for ten year notes, ZN retesting 111 1/4, with TNX down 4 bps at 4.238%.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 1:43:16 PM

QQQQ pulls back from the upper 30 min keltner touch, but needs to get back below the 72 period SMA at 35.83 to turn the channel lower. The 30 min oscillators are in the early stages of an upphase, however, and failing a pullback within the next few minutes, the upper resistance should rise higher. Currently, the 60 min channel top is at 36.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 1:39:27 PM

NASDAQ-100 heatmap at this Link would have breadth negative at 85:15 at time of 01:23 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 1:37:09 PM

QQQQ $35.92 -0.30% ... "tentative" here at DAILY Pivot. This would be an intra-day level that sellers need to defend after brief test of DAILY S1.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 1:37:07 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 1:33:09 PM

Volume breadth has improved considerably but remains negative, 2.39 declining NYSE shares for each advancing, 1.83 declining Nasdaqs for each advancing. The TRIN is down to 1.48, TRINQ .97.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 1:29:21 PM

Buy Program Premium ... QQQQ $35.92

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 1:28:52 PM

Session high for QQQQ here at 35.93. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 1:23:54 PM

The OEX also retests the 200-ema from the underside.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 1:23:31 PM

OEX Keltner resistance firming as the OEX tests it, with that resistance now from 557.70-558.15. Trouble is that support may be firming, too, near 555.80, but the OEX is going to have to make some upward progress to erase vulnerability, at least to test today's low, if not fall further.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 1:20:37 PM

If the SOX can hold 396.16-396.38 on 15-minute closes, it has a greater chance of moving up toward 398.73 than of falling to 393.59-394.34 according to Keltner evidence, but that Keltner evidence isn't saying much else.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 1:16:38 PM

OEX Keltner resistance still holding so far. Still looks strong enough to halt the OEX, if not turn it back, but beware the approaching stop-running time of day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 1:16:07 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link ... VIX.X back near opening tick levels of 14.22. QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot levels are different than those I've calculated and may be in play. 10.33, 12.14, Piv= 14.92, 16.73, 19.51. Session high 14.88 not quite to this weekly pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 1:13:13 PM

Nymex crude is down to a .625 gain at 52.65. Updated 50-tick chart at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/10/2005 1:12:22 PM

Here is the AD line and Ad volume. Not a picture the bulls wanted to see today. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 1:09:37 PM

QQQQ is pulling back from below the 30 min channel top at 35.92, with the SMA line up to 35.81. A successful test of that level as support will suggest a more aggressive test of the 35.90-.92 confluence, while a break would cap a weak/corrective short cycle upphase, suggesting a test of combined 30/60 min channel support at 35.66-.67.

Jane Fox : 5/10/2005 1:07:48 PM

Dateline WSJ Delta Air Lines said it expected to report a "substantial" loss in the remaining nine months of the year, to go along with the whopping $1.1 billion loss it reported in the first three months. The No. 3 U.S. airline also warned it might not have enough cash to cover all its obligations for the year, raising the specter of a bankruptcy filing. High fuel prices and low ticket prices are punishing U.S. air carriers. Delta said it would try to make deeper cost cuts and sell some assets, but still might not be able to raise enough cash to avoid bankruptcy court. Delta in March also foretold a big loss, but today's warning seemed to indicate it had drifted closer to insolvency, some analysts said. Its beaten-down shares fell another 8.5% today.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 1:06:20 PM

Keltner resistance for the OEX from 557.74-558.20 is the level to watch.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 1:05:03 PM

The 22B 3-year T-note auction generated an above-average 2.38 bids for each accepted. The high rate was 3.821%. Indirect bidders (foreign central banks) took a solid 8.66B of the total). Ten year notes are firming in the wake of the auction, with TNX down 2.8 bps at 4.25% here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 1:03:11 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 12:49:10 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 12:48:08 PM

Suspiciously, after creating a breakdown signal, the OEX does not break down, and now climbs above the breakdown level, turning it into potential support. The first resistance is being tested now, with that level currently at 555.53, and with next and stronger resistance at 557.40-558.23. That stronger resistance still looks firm enough to at least slow the OEX, at least as the Keltner channels are currently aligned, but then we'll have to see how the 555.60-ish Keltner support is treated on any pullback that might happen.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 12:45:37 PM

Ten year treasuries have been edging lower off the highs, with TNX creeping up off the lows, currently down 2.6 bps at 4.252%. The lack of action is common ahead of a big Treasury auction, and hopefully the 1PM results will get things moving. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 12:41:54 PM

Swing trade raise bearish stop alert ... Raising the stop on the four (4) Google GOOG May $220 Puts (GOU-QD) to $1.10 from $0.85. ($1.45 x $1.50) with GOOG $226.90 +0.38%

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 12:40:34 PM

The SOX still rattles around between Keltner support and resistance, with the Keltner picture still looking different on the SOX than on many other indices. There's just a hint, a barely there hint, of support strengthening, but not anything conclusive.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 12:39:19 PM

It's only by 2 or 3 cents, but QQQQ is printing above the 72 period SMA for the first time today as the short cycle upphase progresses. The 30 and 60 min cycle channels are directionless, just drifting sideways, but the short cycle upphase and SMA break suggest that above 35.85, the upper channel resistances should be tested. Volume has picked up but remains weak at 37.4M shares so far. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 12:37:32 PM

The OEX closed at the breakdown level rather than above it, but continues to test that level and now the next Keltner resistance, too, at 556.55 on 15-minute closes. Stronger resistance lies at 557.43-558.31. Remember my cautions about believing too strongly in the downside target or the breakdown. The OEX still looks vulnerable on a Keltner basis, but I've been pinpointing that 555.60-ish level as the bottom of a long-term S/R band and the OEX is again attempting a bounce from that level. Don't let a bounce get away from you if you're in bearish positions.

With the Keltner picture as weak as it is and the VIX above recent highs from the last few days, I don't think I'd be jumping on a bullish play right now, not with OEX options.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 12:27:11 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $24.85 -0.56% ... little bid back above WEEKLY Pivot $24.65. Intra-day chart shows session low $24.53 found some sellers along WEEKLY Pivot, but move back above does does find some volume. Taking notes here for QQQQ $35.79.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 12:27:05 PM

So far, the OEX hasn't been able to close 15-minute periods back above the breakdown level, with that level at 555.96 on the OEX and with the OEX currently at 555.90, trying hard to make that 15-minute close this period. Next resistance it would need to move above is at 556.66.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 12:19:30 PM

The TRAN's Keltner resistance appears to be strengthening. So does the OEX's, although the pressure is so great that a pop through that resistance might gather some quick momentum--at least up to about 557.60-558.40, where it should get stopped again. The Dow and SPX are still clinging to that Keltner support that the OEX and TRAN have slipped below, however, looking just a little less weak on a Keltner basis. Wouldn't say they're exactly strong, though.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 12:11:47 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 12:11:08 PM

Volume breadth has weakened on the NYSE, holding steady on the Nasdaq with declining volume leading advancing 4.05:1 on the NYSE, 2.6:1 on the Nasdaq. Currently, the TRIN is up to 1.67, TRINQ down to 1.17.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 12:07:16 PM

The TRAN and the OEX both retest their breakdown levels. They need to bounce back above their respective breakdown levels,(556.05 on 15-minute closes on the OEX and 3513 on the TRAN) and then pierce next Keltner resistance to erase that vulnerability to a steeper decline. At least, that's the Keltner view.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 12:02:05 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 11:58:46 AM

Breakdown threatened now on the OEX. I had hoped to see it bounce back toward 557-558 to watch for a rollover, but it's threatening a breakdown instead. Without a quick bounce back above the Keltner line currently at 557.05 or at least the one at 556.13, it's setting a tentative downside target of 551.69. Take these targets with some skepticism, however, as there's mega-support that could encourage dip-buyers, including the 200-sma, between the current OEX position and that target. The OEX is even now testing the bottom of an approximate 555.60-563.30-ish S/R band carried forward from the monthly chart, and attempting to bounce. Keltner evidence still suggests that 557-558.60 will be tough resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 11:56:17 AM

Session low for QQQQ at 36.74. 30 min channel support has stabilized at 35.65, and the 35.60-.65 confluence level which supported yesterday's low continues to appear as important support today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 11:56:02 AM

Swing trade sell covered two (2) of the Semiconductor HOLDRs SMH Aug $35 Calls (SMH-HG) at the bid of $0.65. SMH $31.96 -0.89% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 11:54:30 AM

Nymex is back up to the highs, currently +.975 at 53. Updated chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 11:52:41 AM

QQQQ $35.75 -0.77% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 11:52:26 AM

DIA $103.03 -0.69% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 11:52:09 AM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) 1,168.10 -0.91% ... first test of WEEKLY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 11:49:00 AM

The 8B 4-week t-bill auction generated a respectable bid to cover ratio of 3.3, with a high rate of 2.575%. Indirect bidders took 1.8B of the total.

The 3-year note auction results will be released shortly after 1PM.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 11:48:30 AM

The TRAN is caught between a rock and a hard place, as the saying goes. It's being squeezed between Keltner resistance and Keltner support. Ultimate direction remains uncertain, but it may be ready soon to try a stop-running move and see if it holds. Not sure which direction that would be.

Tab Gilles : 5/10/2005 11:37:42 AM

Back on 5/5/05 10:46AM post, I highlighted several stocks, here's a recap.

Symbol technology (SBL) Still holding at the trendline. Link Link

Starbucks (SBUX) Starting to look like its rolling over, watch the 200-ma. Link Link

Murphy Oil (MUR) After nearly testing the 200- ma and ema, I was targeting $85. Came close, but that bullish devergence made me get in at $87. Up nicely so far, +$4! However, with crude inventories high I'd keep those stops close. Link Link

Basic Material (XLB) After putting in a bullish divergence buy it ran right upto Fib level $29. Pulling back here watch 200-ma. Link Link

Eaton Vance Limited Duration (EVV) Still targeting $18 nearterm. I though that the Fed was done or maybe had 1 more rate increase. But its sticking to measured pace and that will have pressure on the $FVX. Link Link Link Link

Cigna (CI) Targeting $100. Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 11:37:38 AM

The Fed's Coupon Pass was in the amount of 898B, which covers just over half of today's net drain from the overnight repo activity earlier this AM. It is deliverable tomorrow.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 11:37:31 AM

The OEX still looks as if a bounce might be possible, but one that might get quickly stopped, if so. The TRAN is threatening to roll lower, and I'm keeping a close watch on that.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 11:36:42 AM

June Crude (cl05m $52.65 +1.19% (30-min. delayed) ... darted higher directly to WEEKLY R1 ($52.63) but has stalled out.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 11:33:47 AM

QQQQ retreats from the 72 period SMA, pulling back to 35.79 here. The short cycle oscillators point up, but the 30 and 60 min channels have yet to join in. So far, the short cycle upphase is just corrective, but with a 3rd consecutive day of low volume/tight range chop, everything is starting to look corrective. The daily cycle upphase is still in progress, but price is up against descending resistance on the daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 11:33:42 AM

Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 544.07 +1.86% ... has been pinned at 80.9% (544.66) conventional retracement if taken from 04/27/04 high to 08/10/04 low. QQQQ $35.81 -0.61% ... finds some strength from biotech components. Bears need the biotechs to give back some of their recently impressive gains.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 11:30:48 AM

Pfizer (PFE) $27.87 -0.35% ... company saying it is likely that its Bextra drug will return to the market.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 11:29:13 AM

The SOX has a different Keltner picure than some of the other indices. It's staying above the Keltner support that many indices currently test, and it keeps testing the Keltner resistance that looks far firmer on other indices than it does on the SOX. For the SOX, that Keltner resistance is at 396.25 on a 15-minute closing basis, and, although the SOX's picture is a little stronger than other indices, it hasn't yet been able to maintain 15-minute closes above that particular Keltner resistance. It's trying again as I type, with the SOX at 396.23. The SOX's Keltner resistance and support look about equally weighted, so ultimate direction is unclear as the SOX coils.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 11:23:41 AM

On the OEX's 15-minute chart, it looks as if Keltner resistance is now massing between 557.53-558.86. That looks like a strong wall being built, and as if the OEX is going to have to punch fast and hard to get through it. A bounce looks in order, but Keltners suggest it's not going to get far with a strong buy program to propel it.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 11:20:12 AM

A close friend of mine works for BGC in upper management and this past weekend said business was strong across territories he manages. Miners really buying a lot of high power cable.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 11:18:55 AM

Google (GOOG) $227.09 +0.47% ... higher after Forbes listed the company as one of five upward earnings revision plays. Others were EMN, BGC, GRP, LAMR

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 11:18:33 AM

I'm watching the TRAN for clues today as it sometimes moves first and moves fast, and it's currently facing the same Keltner configuration as many other indices, including the OEX. Currently, the TRAN is balancing above 3515 Keltner support, just above last Thursday's midday dip, but Keltner resistance tries to firm, too. That resistance is at 3526 and then again near 3535.60. Iffy as to which is stronger currently.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 11:17:54 AM

QQQQ clearning 35.80 to test the 72 period SMA here at 35.84. Upper channel resistance remains 36.00, with the short cycle indicators turning up. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 11:13:16 AM

Still no word on the amount of the Fed's coupon pass, but recall that the Treasury will be auctioning a whopping 30B of debt today, 8B in 4-week bills and 22B in 3-year notes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 11:09:38 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 11:03:23 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 11:02:34 AM

OEX still trying to steady, but still not looking too successful. Unless the OEX can manage 15-minute closes above the Keltner lines currently above 557.61-558.06, it remains vulnerable to further declines. The Keltner charts suggest a decline to 551.75, but the 200-sma and bottom of the long-term consolidation zone might prompt dip-buyers to step in ahead of that.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 10:56:50 AM

The Fed has announced a coupon pass deliverable tomorrow. This is a permanent market operation that adds liquidity available to the markets. No amount has yet been announced.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 10:56:11 AM

QQQQ $35.78 -0.69% ... 30-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement as well as Keltner bands at this Link .. weakness to new session low should seek out $35.59 and WEEKLY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 10:53:02 AM

The OEX now dips below the 200-ema, to the 30-sma and to Keltner support that's still trying to firm on the 15-minute chart. Resistance now firms, too, with that resistance now near 558. On any bounce, watch for a possible rollover from that 558 level.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 10:50:02 AM

QQQQ is back to 35.80, testing the bottom of the morning's previous range after hitting a low of 35.75. The 30 min cycle downphase that launched at the premarket open today is roughly halfway done, while the 60 min cycle is at the very start of its downphase. A bounce above 35.86 from here would be enough to stall the 30 min cycle, and above 36.00, both it and the 60 min should begin to turn up. Volume isn't running appreciably higher than yesterday, with 21.9M QQQQ shares traded so far, and so direction is still up for grabs. It looks like CSCO may have to decide it after the bell today. Updated intraday QQQQ chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 10:44:27 AM

QQQQ $35.79 -0.66% .... DIA $103.17 -0.55% .... back for second test of WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 10:43:32 AM

VIX.X 14.59 +6.10% ... back to challenge session high of 14.64. Now above WEEKLY Pivot (some "fear" starting to present itself).

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 10:42:25 AM

New session low for QQQQ here at 35.76.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 10:40:59 AM

Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 543.81 +1.81% ... approaching December highs of 537. Biotech HOLDRs (BBH) $161.77 +0.32% ... 52-week high here. BIIB $39.22 +1.29%, CRA $9.86 +1.12%, MLNM $9.12 +0.99% pace sector gains. ENZN $7.11 -1.93%, CHIR $35.64 -0.69%, ICOS $22.13 -0.53%.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 10:36:08 AM

Crude oil is pulling back from a high of 52.975, currently +.70 at 52.725.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 10:36:03 AM

Looking at the OEX's daily chart shows a disjoint between the Keltner view and the traditional chart view. Both show the OEX currently testing support, with the daily chart's support coming from the linked 200-ema and 30-sma's, with that 200-ema having been important in the last several months' trading pattern. Keltners show a possible quick and steep drop toward 552 if the OEX loses currently weak Keltner support, but the traditional chart shows the 555.29 location of the 200-sma as potential support, particularly as that comes near the bottom of a long-term 555.60-563.30-ish S/R zone for the OEX. For right now, the OEX holds to both Keltner and 200-ema support, but bulls sure would like to see that advdec line improve before they believed in that support holding.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 10:33:48 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 10:33:26 AM

So far, QQQQ is net unchanged over the past hour, with 18M shares' volume within a 5 cent range. The 72 period SMA is down th 35.87 here, with 30 min channel support down to 35.66.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 10:28:37 AM

Great Atlantic Pacific Tea (GAP) $23.53 +29% Link ... sailing to new highs... again. Exceeds bullish vertical count of $20.00.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 10:27:08 AM

OEX still trying mightily to steady, still finding resistance at the first Keltner resistance, currently at 557.12, on 15-minute closes. Next resistance at 558.13-558.65.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 10:23:18 AM

QQQQ $35.82 -0.56% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 10:23:49 AM

Session high for Nymex crude oil at 52.75, +.725. Chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 10:22:51 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.12 -0.60% ... testing WEEKLY Pivot here.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 10:21:02 AM

First Keltner resistance is turning the OEX back again. The SOX is not holding onto all of its bounce attempt. The OEX is in danger of setting a downside Keltner target of 551.80, without a steadying and quick bounce back above the 558.13 level.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 10:20:28 AM

Session high here for ten year bond futures at 111 1/4, with TNX now down 4 bps at 4.238%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 10:18:27 AM

Swing trade establish stop alert for the General Motors GM Sep $30 Puts (GM-UF) at $2.70. (currently $3.00 x $3.20) GM $31.97 +2.01% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 10:15:23 AM

Volume breadth has strengthened on the Nasdaq, with advancing volume down to 2.78:1 over declining volume and the TRINQ down to 1.57. Price has yet to clear the 35.85 mark, but the internals are firming. If the lows break first, the 30 min channel bottom is down to 35.70.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 10:14:10 AM

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 10:12:59 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 10:12:54 AM

I view the RLX as important to watch, too, and it's attempting to bounce from the same Keltner configuration of support that many indices currently test. One key for the RLX will be how it handles the 411.40-412 zone, the next level of potential Keltner resistance.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 10:10:29 AM

The OEX is still trying to steady at Keltner suport, but as is does, it's giving Keltner resistance a chance to firm. The SOX, with a potential inverse H&S of its own (untrustworthy, though, because formed in a consolidation zone), still tries to bounce. The TRAN, another indicator index, is a big drag on sentiment, though, dropping way out of its consolidation zone, leaving no doubt as to whether its actions this morning have been bullish or bearish. Even the TRAN teeters on potential Keltner support, although its hold on that support is tenuous at best. If the TRAN should drop below that support on 15-minute closes below about 3510, it sets a tentative downside Keltner targt of 3469.07, about an additional 50 points below its current 3519.56.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 10:03:11 AM

Session high for ten year treasuries, with TNX down 3.4 bps at 4.246%, printing entirely below yesterday's range. The bias remains to the upside within the daily cycle upphase, and 4.23%-4.24% are immediate support from here. Daily chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 10:03:00 AM

The SOX is already attempting a bounce. Not the OEX, though, although the OEX is now at potential Keltner support. Next resistance now at 558.15, then stronger at 559.-559.40.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 10:02:22 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 9:58:19 AM

Declining volume leads advancing volume on both exchanges, 3.77:1 on the NYSE and 2.88:1 on the Nasdaq. The TRIN and TRINQ are both in bearish territory, 1.47 and 2.01 respectively. QQQQ continues to struggle below 3.585, with the 30 min channel support down to 35.73 and the 72 period SMA down to 35.90. Updated intraday chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:55:24 AM

VIX.X 14.26 +3.49 ... DAILY Pivot level ... 12.92, 13.23, Piv= 13.87 14.19, 14.83.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 9:54:07 AM

The Fed's open market desk has just announced a 5.75B overnight repo, for a net drain of 1.75B against the 7.5B expiring from yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 9:52:09 AM

Next OEX support currently at 556.91, according to the Keltner chart.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 9:49:37 AM

OEX 558 has long been a point of some historical S/R, too, and today, it's at the bottom of a consolidation pattern that's been forming since about Thursday of last week. The OEX needs to bounce here, however, or it threatens to fall out of that consolidation pattern, a pattern that's about three points wide. A fall through this suggests a decline of about three points, but remember that all this occurs within a zone that's known for producing choppy OEX action, so trust nothing.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 9:47:19 AM

The OEX is testing the potential Keltner support zone that I mentioned in my first OEX-related post this morning. This is a zone at which I warned that those in bearish positions need to have profit-protecting plans in place, in case there is a bounce.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 9:47:02 AM

QQQQ is holding above the morning lows and the oversold short cycle indicators are ticking up. A break above the 72 period SMA at 35.91 should be enough to print a preliminary short cycle buy signal, but with the 30 and 60 min channels pointing lower, my guess is that the short cycle upphase should be corrective only.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:43:18 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) $24.89 -0.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:44:04 AM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 99.44 +0.09% Link ... bucks broader negativity early.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 9:42:56 AM

Gold and silver have pulled back from their earlier highs but remain positive, gold +.90 at 427.90 and silver just ticking negative by .009 at 7.07 as I type. HUI and XAU are both up fractionally, +.23% at 185.67 and +.27% at 86.19 respectively, despite the ongoing weakness in the USD Index this morning. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:39:53 AM

Cray Inc. (CRAYE) $1.45 -30% Link ... symbol change from CRAY to CRAYE after posting widening Q1 loss. Threatened with delisting by the NASDAQ.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 9:36:21 AM

No pullback for bonds, with TNX down 2.2 bps at 4.256%, and QQQQ has pulled back to test 35.80, currently holding as 35.83 as the 30 and 60 min channels roll over. Current 30 min support is down to 35.77. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:34:02 AM

Cendant (CD) $20.59 -1.24% Link ...

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 9:33:58 AM

The OEX heads immediately down into possible Keltner support mentioned in my earlier post.

Unfortunately, I'm caught on the telephone. Back as soon as possible.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:30:34 AM

Fossil, Inc. (FOSL) $24.67 Link ... marked lower at $20.20 and #6 on pre-market most active list. Posted strong quarterly results, but guided lower on European sales.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:30:10 AM

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) $11.19 Link ... stock higher at $12.72 and #3 on pre-market most actives after company said interim results from an early stage trial that indicated its experimental oral hepatitis C virus treatment was well tolerated and demonstrated potent antiviral activity.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:29:48 AM

Google (GOOG) $226.02 Link ... down $1.20 at $224.82 on light volume.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:29:27 AM

QQQQ $36.03 Link ... down $0.20 at $35.83.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:28:54 AM

General Motors (GM) $31.33 Link ... up $0.07 at $31.40 pre-market. GM reaffirmed $0.50 per share quarterly dividend late yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:28:29 AM

SAP Aktiengesell (SAP) $40.87 Link ... down $0.86 at $40.01.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:28:05 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) $24.98 Link ... down $0.18 at $24.80 on 100 shares.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:27:41 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.25 Link ... down $0.50 at $32.00 pre-market.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2005 9:13:30 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.32 and set for program selling at $-0.67.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 9:08:21 AM

Nymex crude is up .30 at 52.325 here, off a high of 52.60.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 9:02:43 AM

It's a disadvantage to be away from the markets for a day, not to observe the ebb and flow of prices, but here's what I see when studying the OEX's charts Monday night. The OEX still consolidates in the 555.60-563.30-ish S/R zone that I've long had marked on my charts, with that zone carried forward from a study of the monthly chart. That zone includes the 561.23 level that marks the 38.2% Fib retracement of the entire bear-market decline. I mentioned last week that the OEX has long tended to chop around once it gets within that 555.60-563.30 (approximate) zone, and that over the last several years there has not been a single instance of the OEX moving smoothly and quickly through that zone. It usually begins a choppy consolidation that can last for days or even weeks once it touches that zone. That sets my bias toward expecting some choppiness until the OEX breaks cleanly free and starts trending again in one direction or the other.

That 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline is about where the OEX ended Monday, inching just above it at 561.32. It also ended just above the daily 100-ema, with that at 561.26. On a 15-minute chart, the OEX appears to be building an inverse H&S, but an inverse H&S that's forming within a consolidation zone building over the last several days. That inverse H&S has not been confirmed, but may not be valid or its upside target trustworthy. At the end of the day yesterday, the OEX's 15-minute Keltner channels shows the OEX facing resistance from 561.10-561.77, with a test of upside resistance constituting a test of that inverse H&S neckline, too. Fifteen-minute Keltner channels aren't giving many clues about eventual direction, however. As the OEX coils, they're settling into an equilibrium condition, with resistance and support looking about equally weighted.

An upside breakout above that neckline, accompanied by a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 561.77, would set a new upside target of 564.22. Treat that upside target with some caution, however, as the OEX still remains within that zone that has produced choppy behavior so many other times. Futures are lower this morning. If cash markets open in accordance, a downturn from the resistance will find first Keltner support at 560.15, but stronger support might lie between 559.20-559.60. Below that, next support lies between 557.37-558.16, and I'd certainly have bearish profit-protecting plans in place as that zone was tested, if it is tested. With the OEX coiling, support and resistance may be difficult to identify.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 8:55:35 AM

QQQQ is printing a new low at 35.83. The 30 min cycle has rolled over and is in a downphase, with the 60 min cycle still stalled after going nowhere yesterday. Current 30 and 60 min channel support is being tested at the lows here, and if the weakness holds for the first 10-15 minutes after the opening bell, then those levels will decline. Key confluence support is at the 35.60-.65 level, below which the 60 min cycle will resolve its funk to the downside. Above, 35.94 is the current 72 period SMA, below which the intraday bias will remain bearish.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 8:21:44 AM

Equities have weakened as bonds advanced, with the TNX quoted -1.6 bps at 4.262% here. YM printed a sesion low of 10341, and QQQQ is currently -.16 at 35.87.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/10/2005 7:32:20 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1175.5, NQ 1460 and YM 10346. QQQQ is -.13 at 35.90. Gold is up 1 to 428, silver +.023 to a session high of 7.102, ten year notes are up 5/32 to 111 3/32, and crude oil is up .125 to 52.15.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today.

Linda Piazza : 5/10/2005 7:10:40 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei started out in positive territory, but fell ahead of expected after-the-close earnings reports from major companies. Most other Asian markets declined, too, with China's Shanghai Composite a standout, gaining instead of losing. European markets had been mixed as this report was begun, but have turned lower. Our futures also decline. As of 6:39 EST, gold was up $0.80, and oil, up $.21 to $52.24. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped higher, but then started the decline into the mid-afternoon low. The Nikkei did manage to close off that afternoon low, but still closed lower by 11.86 points or 0.11%, at 11,159.46.

The opening gap came courtesy of the gains in the U.S. markets and upbeat forecasts from Japanese companies NTT Data Corp. and construction-equipment manufacturer Komatsu Ltd. Olympus Corp. said it would be profitable. Also, Dramexchange.com said that increasing demand would drive prices of computer memory chips higher next month. That news sent chip-related stocks higher near the open. Sony didn't benefit from the bounce in tech stocks, however, and had traded lower by midmorning. Toyota Motor also erased early gains, being partly responsible for the decline as investors worried about the company's after-the-close earnings report. That report was to show that fiscal 2004 group net profit climbed to a record but the just-completed quarter saw declining profit. NTT DoCoMo also erased early gains to trade lower ahead of its earnings report. Although group net profit rose last year, group revenue and operating profit fell for the year.

Most other Asian markets declined, too. The Taiwan Weighted dropped 0.29%, with Taiwan Semiconductor closing flat as the company's shareholders decided on a cash-and-stock dividend. South Korea's Kospi declined 0.10%. Singapore's Straits Times eased 0.02% lower, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.47%. China's Shanghai Composite was one of the few Asian bourses to close in positive territory, climbing 0.42%, and the Shanghai Composite reversed early losses to turn in that positive number. In China, a news item noted today that the government would not consider initial public offering applications for two months while the government sells its state-owned stock shares. Another item in the news in China was an opinion piece by a government researcher that appeared in several publications, with the researcher supporting a widening of the yuan's trading band. Some believe that the piece implies government approval of this plan.

As this report was begun, European markets were mixed, with one analyst terming the market directionless, but by the time the research was completed, European bourses were dropping. Story stocks included Bayer AG, trading back and forth across the flat-line today after it increased expectations for profit before interest, taxes and special items from one unit, but kept other components of its forecast for the company the same. Swiss specialty chemicals group Clariant disappointed some investors when it made its earnings report, and fell in early trading. Dutch telecom group KPN fell after its earnings report, although many had expected the report to be dismal.

As of 6:53 EST, the FTSE 100 had fallen 7.80 points or 0.16%, to 4,902.50. The CAC 40 had dropped 4.70 points or 0.12%, to 4,015.49. The DAX had fallen 13.95 points or 0.32%, to 4,278.46.

Market Monitor Archives