Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 2:05:23 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.50 and set for program selling at $-0.27.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 1:31:20 AM

Google (GOOG) some late-night retracement work at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 12:44:25 AM

June Crude Oil (cl04m) down 45 cents at $50.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 12:44:00 AM

e-mini S&P (es05m) unchanged at 1,172.50.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 12:43:33 AM

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05m) up 0.50 point at 1,461.50.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 12:33:21 AM

S&P 100 components the other 50 sorted by "Industry Name" at this Link These tables are big, but open them, and then save in your browser's "favorites" for later referance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 12:31:39 AM

S&P 100 components 50 components sorted by "Industry Name" at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 11:32:53 PM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) ... "top 33" 5-day % losers at this Link ... IBM Link is NOT a component of the QQQQ. When I noted Building Products looks to be the strongest sector internally, what stock did you think of? I thought of Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 11:01:51 PM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) while we're 8-days into the month's trade, here are the 5-day % gainers in the OEX. Just 31 of 100 showing a gain so far, so observation is breadth on a Wednesday-Wednesday basis isn't "so hot." There's FDX at #13 and if I sort by "Industry" or "Sector Name" I might be able to pick up on any sector themes. We may see one with LU and CSCO. Can also check against tonight's Market Wrap thoughts that "breadth among biotech" only being driven by a few, but not sure how many biotechnology names in OEX. Not off the top of my head anyway. Here... sorted by 5-day % gain at this Link

Tab Gilles : 5/11/2005 10:59:20 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Back on 5/5 I issued a buy on Mur. I'd been targeting $85 as an entry point. Never hit it but came close. Bullish Divergence, Fibonacci Retracement and 150/200 emas signaled BUY. Link Link

News Flash Murphy Oil Says Its Board Declares Two-For-One Stock Split Effective Next Month--- After hours trading has MUR up +$0.83 @ $91.49, from its 5/5 close of $90.66 (+$0.62). Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:50:42 PM

S&P 100 top 33 weighted components .. sorted by market cap and looking for clues. May have made a "disturbing" observation regarding some QQQQ components. The P/L % would represent a year-to-date percentage change (from 12/31/05 close), while YrNet% is 52-weeks. Looking for +/- 2% movers. Table at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 10:34:05 PM

I'll be off for jury duty Thursday morning until . . . well, that's up to the court system and not to me.

Here's what I saw as of Wednesday evening. Wednesday, the OEX dipped and sprang up, creating a candle with a long lower shadow and a small real body. That small real body spanned the distance between the 200-sma and 200-ema. The move brought the OEX back into the 555.60-563.30-ish S/R zone carried forward from my monthly chart, with the OEX showing a predilection for choppy trading behavior once it touches that zone. The OEX has chopped around the minimum amount of time that it usually does once touching that zone, but that choppy behavior sometimes continues for weeks. Therefore, I'm still in a take-profit-quickly mode.

The OEX has been rising off the April low in a rising regression channel. Although the channel formed after a steep decline, it's a little wide for a typical bear flag and may instead be run-of-the-mill rising channel. Since it hasn't retraced even half the fall off the March high, we can't ignore the possibility that it is one, and that it's rising into the resistance that will stop it. I've been watching the daily 100/130-ema's, with the OEX finding resistance at those throughout May. Those averages are currently at 561.05 and 560.26, respectively. All through May, the OEX has only once closed at or slightly above the daily 100-ema, but the OEX dove straight from that average the next day, so they're important to watch as the OEX moves higher within the rising regression channel.

There's also a potential inverse H&S on the OEX's daily chart, with the 50-sma at the approximate level of one version of the neckline. Another version would be a horizontal neckline at about 567.00, so anyone long the OEX needs to have profit-protecting plans in place at the 100/130-ema's near 560-561, at the horizontal S/R zone near 563, and again at the 565-567 zone, with 564.81 being the 50% retracement of the decline off the March high.

So there's a potential bear flag rise and a potential inverse H&S, all on the daily chart, and all present as the OEX flounders around a bit in a typically choppy zone. Either way, there's potential for more choppiness as the OEX rises through its possible bear flag or forms a right shoulder for that potential inverse H&S. For tomorrow, the 15-minute Keltner support is trying to firm up beneath the OEX, currently from 555.65, up to the OEX's closing level. As long as the OEX can continue 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 556.10, it has a chance of moving up toward 558.39. The OEX might be forming an inverse H&S on that 15-minute chart, too, and it's possible that it hasn't yet finished the right-shoulder formation. If so, it might need a pullback after an approach to that 558-ish upside target. If it's been forming a right shoulder since mid-afternoon Wednesday, then a push above and 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 558.39 suggests an upside target currently at 563.01, but that's getting ahead of things. It's likely that the Keltner resistance at 558.39 is going to hold, at least on the first test. Inverse H&S can be and have been invalidated, and this one is forming when daily Keltner resistance still looks strong and support looks weaker. Even with inverse H&S's on a 15-minute chart, right shoulders can and have required a whole day's worth of 15-minute candles to form before the inverse H&S is either confirmed or invalidated.

So, my conclusion is that although there's hope for a climb Thursday morning, there's still lots of potential for choppiness, as the OEX decides whether the 200-sma/ema's support or the 100/130-ema's resistance is more important. Other than that, it's difficult to give advice ahead of the open and watching how things unfold. Trade carefully.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:27:28 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link ... Linda may have discussed "why" OEX lagging other majors so much, but notable lag so far this month.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 1:58:04 AM

Google (GOOG) contd. ... It may well be all those calls at 230 in GOOG that have the stock moving above there! Check out the June 230 and 250 calls! Bullish exuberation? Perhaps, but what if YOU were a fund manager that had to track the NDX/QQQQ and couldn't buy the stock until the DAY it was ADDED to the NDX/QQQQ (assuming it might get added to ndx/qqqq). Does somebody know something regarding this scenario? JDSU out Link and GOOG in? Link

OI Technical Staff : 5/11/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 9:53:47 PM

Question: Google Inc. what is all this volume pushing up the stock in the last few hours of trading? It frequently gaps one way or the other at the open, but this is really overdone. Did others see the inverted H&S? What do you think? Many calls at 230 should contain it there? Reply: I can't figure it out! While just because a stock achieves it bullish vertical count ($228.00) is not a prime reason to short/put a stock, I would have thought current market conditions would have warranted some bulls taking profits! Short interest as of April 15th wasn't that high. In fact, Short Interest just 8.7 million shares, with days to cover an easy 1.25. This is the lowest short interest since 10/15/05. I thought "why is stock so strong" last night as I put my head on the pillow. One thought that crossed my mind is that GOOG might be a stock that gets added to the NASDAQ-100 on quarterly rebalancing. I can't imagine what the stock might do on first news of that. While I got "whacked" on the options, I don't think this stock is attracting any shorts. Here's NASDAQ's short interest table on GOOG. Link

Tab Gilles : 5/11/2005 5:24:26 PM

CSCO Cisco Testing both 200 ma and ema. Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 5:17:10 PM

Thanks, Tab. I'm willing to do my civic duty, but extremely hopeful that will consist of showing up for jury duty and being sent home straight away.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 4:39:28 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 4:31:10 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 5/11/2005 4:30:52 PM

Didn't catch that was out this morning. But yes...we seem to agree on how these people report and the markets reactions. Linda, hope you don't get to tied up with you civic duty. OI needs your daily input.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 4:19:03 PM

I forgot to remind readers at the end of the day that I will be out tomorrow for jury duty.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 4:18:01 PM

Tab, in reference to your 4:14 post, I thought the same thing. See my 9:16 post.

Tab Gilles : 5/11/2005 4:14:31 PM

Well is China going to revalue the yuan? They are most likely going to let their currency float, one step at a time. They have no choice. But by 2008 it should be a fully floating currency. It's only one month, but a lower dollar is or at least appears to be helpinig with the trade deficit. Link Link

China's People's Daily newspaper said it incorrectly translated a report placed on its English language online edition to say that a change in the yuan's peg will be announced next week. Yeah....RIGHT! Come on...last week the FED "mistakingly omitted" a sentence....!!??!! Link

Looking at the EUR/USD chart 1 year daily. Link

Here's an interesting $GOX/ $GOLD chart. The $GOX has been decling nearterm, yet the $GOLD has held up. Is $GOLD about to shrply decline?? Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 9:19:23 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Stopped out of three (3) Google GOOG May $220 Puts (GOU-QD) at the opening bell of $1.00 ($-0.65, or -39.39%) and hold one still. Stopped out of the remaining one (1) SanDisk SNDK July $27.50 Put (SWQ-SY) at the opening bell at $2.95. ($0.00, or 0.00%) Covered 1/2 of the bearish swing trade short in the QQQQ at $35.64. (+0.31, or +0.86%) This had us holding 1/2 bearish position from 05/06/06 entry. Day traded long a full position in shares of Yahoo! (YHOO) at the offer of $33.91. Exited 1/2 at $34.21 (+$0.30, or 0.88%) and the other 1/2 at $34.55 (+0.64, or +1.89%). Swing trade shorted the QQQQ at $35.96, placed a stop at $36.30 on what is once again a FULL position, and will target $35.60 at this point in time. I may lower stop on this trade after writing this evening's Market Wrap and observations made there. Swing traded long 1/2 bullish position in shares of eBay (EBAY) at the offer of $33.24, stop $32.50, targeting $34.75.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 3:58:19 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 358.64 +0.53% ... also coiling around its WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 3:56:50 PM

SPY $117.27 +0.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 3:56:29 PM

QQQQ $35.96 +0.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 3:56:07 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.12 +0.40% ... has been "coiling" around its WEEKLY Pivot the past 2 hours.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 3:56:25 PM

Marc, I've noticed lots of times when you're buying support and I'm selling resistance, but we're both seeing the same range. Right now, I'm not presuming to know final direction or presuming that it's down, but I want to see some of those resistance levels the OEX fell through broken to the upside before I start believing the upside story too strongly. One problem that I find on behalf of readers is that pesky problem with calls as markets move up and the volatility indices decrease. On the options side, you better be right about direction and timing and the move better be big enough to the upside for readers to benefit from an upside move.

Tab Gilles : 5/11/2005 3:53:13 PM

Additional SPX chart to 3:38 post. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 3:44:52 PM

The OEX retests the day's high, but I mentioned earlier that I wouldn't be surprised to see it bump between that 557-ish zone and the Keltner line currently at 555.97, and I still wouldn't. A breakout above the day's high faces next resistance up near 558.39, if that should happen. Right now, this appears to be part of a right-shoulder-building exercise for the potential inverse H&S on the 15-minute chart (not the larger one possibly building on the daily chart). Don't think we'll get the real answer about the confirmation/invalidation of the 15-minute one until tomorrow.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 3:42:07 PM

The TRINQ made it from extreme bearish territory near 4.0 to nearly extreme bullish at .37 here, with 1.67 advancing shares for each declining on the Nasdaq. The NYSE is more moderate with a TRIN of .81, 1.41 advancing shares for each declining.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 3:42:25 PM

A Cautious bull alert for an eBay long (I'm trying with 1/2 position) may want to see if eBay above its WEEKLY Pivot ($33.31) toward the close.

Tab Gilles : 5/11/2005 3:38:35 PM

SPX.X 60 minute chart from yesterday showed a bounce off of support-1163. I'm targeting the 1180/1200 level before another pullback. Starting to get an early H&S pattern perhaps? Link Link Link

$NYSI and $NYHL have been bullish since mid-April on the $SPX. Link Link As well as the $BPSPX. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 3:35:53 PM

Swing trade long 1/2 bullish in shares of eBay (EBAY) $33.24 +1.46% here, stop $32.50, target $34.75.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 3:33:26 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 3:32:41 PM

Marc, rather than watching the daily 20-sma, I'm watching the 100/130-ema's, and those have been resistance since the OEX began testing them 5/04. But I had based my earlier "countertrend" comment on the move back up into a long-term (many years) choppy zone for the OEX in particular. I see a potential inverse H&S on the OEX's daily chart, so grant that the OEX might be trying to bottom, but for me, it's still just trying, and I don't feel as confident as you do of final direction, especially with the OEX obviously finding resistance at the daily 100/130-ema's all this month.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 3:26:16 PM

Updated QQQQ chart at this Link finding support at the broken descending trendline from Monday's close, trying for a retest of the 36.03 high. A failure to do so will be the first sign of trouble for 30 min cycle bulls, confirmed by a break back below 35.80.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 3:24:37 PM

The OEX, BIX, RLX and SOX, all continue to find support at analogous Keltner levels, the ones needed to keep the smallest Keltner channel pointed higher, but they all also coil between that Keltner line and the day's highs. They're all rising into a test of the day's highs, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some more coiling, still.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 3:25:52 PM

QQQQ $35.93 +0.43% ... if we close here, tomorrow's DAILY Pivot levels ... $35.02, $35.48, Piv = $35.75 $36.21, $36.48. Note correlation at DAILY R2 and MONTHLY R1. It "shouldn't trade there" after last month's trade at MONTHLY S2. But this observation perhaps ties in with my "2 standard deviation" option expiration thoughts.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 3:17:22 PM

Google (GOOG) $231.80 +1.75% ... WEEKLY R1 (231.88) here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 3:16:40 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $34.73 +1.96% ... BLUE #3.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 3:14:39 PM

The "one thing" a bear needs to be careful of into next Thursday/Friday is option expiration. There's no telling what type of trades were "put on" earlier this morning, which if unwound could have a 2 standard deviation type move from the bottom.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 3:13:43 PM

I had mentioned earlier that I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX pull back from the then-current 557 level up to 558.25, and then to test the very Keltner line that it's been testing. I also wouldn't be surprised now to see the OEX trade roughly between 555.50-557, perhaps all the way into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 3:12:11 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 3:08:44 PM

Disney (DIS) $26.64 -1.15% ... CNBC had reported that DIS beat by $0.07 per share, but that was incorrect. Aggressive bulls and short covering bears "paid up" on that info.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 3:04:21 PM

The OEX may be turning down toward 555.60-ish Keltner support. Bulls want to see that support hold on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 3:03:06 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 3:02:37 PM

The SOX is perhaps coming down to test 393.80-ish support. Bulls want to see it hold.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:59:34 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $25.06 -0.11% ... not really participating in today's comeback at this point. Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 100.11 +1.72% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 2:58:34 PM

On the daily charts, 36.00-36.20 is the key upside confluence and a natural limit for the mature daily cycle upphase. Above that level the upphase would be overbought and in danger of trending.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:57:53 PM

Disney (DIS) $27.40 +1.70% ... released for trade.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:58:04 PM

Disney (DIS) $27.21 +0.96% ... still halted. Q2 EPS was $0.33 per share. Beats by a penny.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 2:54:37 PM

Catching this OEX upside move today would have been a great play and I congratulate those players who did just that. I just don't play possible countertrend plays, and this move higher, although I anticipated it, was bringing the OEX right back up into that choppy zone that's been in place for a long time. The bottom of that zone, the 200-sma or 200-ema, 558 historical and Keltner resistance: any of them could have stopped the OEX.

Now, I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX hesitate anywhere from the current 557 level up to that 558.28 upside target and then pull back to test the Keltner line currently at 555.45. That Keltner line is moving higher, and so might be higher by the time it's retested.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 2:52:54 PM

Ten year bonds have given back the lion's share of their gains, TNX up to a 1.6 bp loss at 4.206% with 8 minutes left of the cash session. The 4.14%-4.16% confluence supported the morning decline: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 2:50:11 PM

The OEX again attempts to break higher, toward the 558.24 upside target.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:50:02 PM

Disney (DIS) $27.21 +0.96% ... still halted. Reports Q2 revenues of $7.38 billion vs. $7.19 billion year ago. Q2 net income at $689 million vs. year ago $537 million.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:48:27 PM

Netflix (NFLX) $12.51 +8.03% ... was thinking "short" this morning but I thought to myself .... "what if Blockbuster (BBI) buys them? Intra-day time line on NFLX would likely match the Icahn news.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 2:46:35 PM

QQQQ has put in huge volume so far, 107.4M shares compared with yesterday's total of 77.5M. The pullback off the high is on solid volume, but less than the advancing volume that preceded this so far corrective pullback. The 30 and 60 min cycles point north, and the short cycle is catching up to the move, overbought but not yet maxxed out. This is a bullish key reversal, with a lower low followed by a higher high. While it could be the terminal/blowoff stage of the daily cycle upphase, the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls on today's high volume doji hammer (so far). The 72 period SMA has struggled up to 35.60 here, and the 30 min cycle remains bullish above it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:43:14 PM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 179.62 -1.28% ... WEEKLY Pivot = 182.05, S1= 177.97, S2= 171.39.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:42:16 PM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 94.97 +0.61% (30-minute delayed) ... rings up WEEKLY R1.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 2:39:17 PM

The SOX approached but didn't quite touch its upside target--now at 396.74, a little higher than earlier. It now pulls back, with support firming from 393.17-394.82, looking strong enough to hold the SOX on a pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:38:15 PM

Blockbuster (BBI) $9.99 +1.62% ... DJ - Carl Icahn didn't show up for annual meeting, but saying he and two candidates he had picked for the board were victorious.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:36:25 PM

Walt Disney (DIS) $27.21 +0.96% ... halted for trade.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 2:33:59 PM

Advancing volume takes the lead 1.25:1 on the NYSE and 1.87:1 on the Nasdaq, TRIN down to .82 and TRINQ down to .58.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:32:57 PM

I "love" days like today.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 2:31:45 PM

The OEX maintains the Keltner target of 558.22 (slightly lower than before), but the last 15-minute candle was a gravestone doji, a potential danger signal as the OEX hovers just beneath the 200-ema.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:30:55 PM

Google (GOOG) $231.01 +1.40% ... "bad tick" to $221.29. Probably keypunch but would go down to the 30-minute interval chart's rising 200-pd SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:28:45 PM

Swing trade short 1/2 bearish position alert ... for the QQQQ $35.96 +0.53% here, I want to adjust stop on a "now full" to $36.30.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:23:45 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 2:23:42 PM

QQQQ blew clear above the 30 and 60 min channels, and this type of move usually resolves as a blowoff. When not immediately reversed, it indicates a very strong trending move- usually a rare outcome, but very powerful when it occurs. Bears need a quick move back to the 35.75 area: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 2:21:49 PM

The OEX's Keltner charts may have set an upside target just above 558 (see 2:20 post), but there's that pesky 200-ema at 557 to be dealt with.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 2:20:02 PM

The OEX has set an upside target of 558.25, for the time being.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:17:40 PM

Selling 500 long in YHOO at $34.51.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:17:12 PM

Bullish day trade exit alert on the other 1/2 bullish position in Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $34.55 +1.43% here.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 2:15:44 PM

The OEX just now tests mid-channel Keltner resistance, at 556.52, but the OEX has just confirmed an inverse H&S, neckline at about 555.28, depending on how it's drawn.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:14:28 PM

QQQQ $35.80 +0.08% ...

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 2:14:11 PM

If the SOX can hold above mid-channel Keltner reistance into this 15-minute close, it sets a tentative upside target of 396.55.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:13:55 PM

Google (GOOG) $230.14 +1.00% back above DAILY R2 and looks to challenge morning high.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:11:48 PM

Yahoo (YHOO) $34.42 ... QQQQ $35.76 ... pretty close eh?

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:11:05 PM

Bullish day trade cance target alert on Yahoo. Instead, raise stop to $34.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 2:10:12 PM

QQQQ intraday chart at this Link with price back above the 35.60-.65 confluence and testing the 30 min channel top here. 60 min channel resistance is at 35.80, and that longer cycle has yet to turn up. However, unless bears turn price back below 35.60 within the next 10 minutes or so, that cycle too should join in to the upside.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 2:09:41 PM

SOX testing mid-channel Keltner resistance at 393.66, with the SOX at 393.69.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:10:08 PM

Yahoo (YHOO) $34.35 +0.85% ... standing on DAILY R1. Monitor QQQQ $35.72 as it approaches DAILY Pivot. My "eyeball target" for YHOO is $34.40 as QQQQ trades DAILY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 2:08:24 PM

First Keltner support holds, and the OEX breaks upward out of the little bull flag to retest the Keltner resistance near 555.27.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:03:10 PM

Economic ... DJ - March Deficit unrevised at $71.23 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 2:02:12 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 2:00:36 PM

Headline:

U.S. POSTS BUDGET SURPLUS OF $57.7 BILLION IN APRIL

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 1:57:42 PM

The Treasury Budget is due in 3 minutes, est. 58B, prior 17.6B.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 1:54:32 PM

Nymex crude is up to 50.725, -1.35 for the day, with QQQQ edging back below the 35.60-.65 zone on light volume. The SMA line is at 35.53, and the 30 min cycle will continue to advance as price holds above it. Currently the TRIN is down to 1.08, TRINQ at 1.98, reflecting the strengthening breadth. Updated QQQQ chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 1:53:36 PM

The OEX, BIX, and RLX all test analogous Keltner levels. The OEX's is at 553.88, and bulls want to see 15-minute closes above it while bears want the opposite.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 1:47:39 PM

Yahoo! (YHOO) ... day trader's chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 1:45:44 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for Yahoo! (YHOO) $34.26 +0.58% ... to $34.05.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 2:55:04 PM

Oops. Investors in TRAN stocks decided that they shouldn't have sent the TRAN higher without letting that right shoulder form on its potential inverse H&S. Since this morning's drastic zoom higher and almost-as-drastic downturn, the TRAN has been forming that right shoulder. That zoom makes it difficult to decide just where the neckline should be, but I'd guess somewhere around 3528.00. The TRAN is currently at 3410, trying to hold above Keltner support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 1:39:38 PM

QQQQ $35.60 -0.47% ... I think a YHOO bull needs a kick from the QQQQ on this re-test of WEEKLY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 1:39:29 PM

Now that the OEX turns down from Keltner resistance, bulls and bears should be watching the 553.86 level, with bulls wanting to see continued 15-minute closes above that Keltner level and bears wanting to see a downturn and close below it.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 1:33:39 PM

Ten year treasuries have been declining since the auction results were released, with TNX up to a 3.4 bp loss at 4.188%. Crude oil sunk to a low of 50.225 and is currently up to 50.60, -1.475 or 2.83%. QQQQ is chopping sideways within the 35.60-.65 confluence as the short cycle upphase continues. It is not yet in overbought territory, and the 30 min channel is now pointing up, with resistance rising to 35.73.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 1:32:07 PM

One reason I'm not ready to suggest a new long OEX position--even though I did suggest that bears exit all or part of their positions in the 550.80-552 region and protect profits on the rest--relates to the Keltner outlook on the OEX's daily chart. That suggests that the OEX is heading up to retest a Keltner level that the OEX closed below yesterday, the 555.00 level. Until the OEX again produces daily closes above that Keltner level, it remains vulnerable to more downside. Even after closing above that Keltner resistance level, it faces daily Keltner resistance that appears much stronger, beginning at about 559.20 and extending up to 563.88. Of course, if we knew that the OEX was going to head up to 559.20, that would be good for a short-term play, but we just don't know that, with daily resistance looking stronger than daily support. The daily MACD's histogram grows less positive.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 1:31:49 PM

Yahoo (YHOO) $34.22 +0.46% ... DAILY Pivot levels ... $33.59, $33.92, Piv= $34.09, $34.32 (was yesterday's DAILY S1), $34.59.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 1:29:29 PM

Selling 500 shares in personal account here at $34.20.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 1:29:02 PM

Bullish day trade sell 1/2 position alert in Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $34.21 here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 1:25:52 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $34.16 +0.29% to breakeven

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 1:22:04 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 1:18:48 PM

Volume breadth has improved but continues to favor declining volume 1.18:1 on the NYSE and 1.51:1 on the Nasdaq, with the TRIN down to .99 and the TRINQ at 2.22.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 1:13:20 PM

The SOX approaches first Keltner resistance on the 15-minute Keltner chart, but stronger Keltner resistance is near 393.59-393.76.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 1:10:10 PM

Short-term OEX bears who elected not to take all or partial credit in the 550.80-552 region, as I had suggested a couple of times earlier, now need to put in place their profit-protecting plans--out at breakeven, perhaps? The OEX is still firmly in a downtrend. It's got Keltner resistance just overhead and the 200-sma and -ema's above that. There's not been any kind of upside breakout, certainly, and I wouldn't be entering a countertrend long OEX options position just yet--not me, anyway--but there are some improvements by certain measures.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 1:08:52 PM

QQQQ has just cracked the declining 72 period SMA for the first time since breaking below it at 9:45AM, stalling the 30 min channel downphase. Resistance is at 35.70, but should rise if QQQQ can clear the 35.60-.65 confluence. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 1:07:51 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 1:07:14 PM

The OEX moves up toward next Keltner resistance, now converging near 554.55-555.39.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 1:05:20 PM

The 15B 5-year T-note auction generarted a 2.47 bid to cover ratio with a high rate of 3.89%. Indirect bidders accounted for 34% of the demand at 4.985B worth of the total.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 1:03:43 PM

Session low for Nymex crude at 50.50. Chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 1:01:56 PM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $33.90 -0.46% here, stop $33.75, target $34.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 12:58:23 PM

TNX has retraced part of its losses, back to the midpoint of its day range after bouncing from just below 4.15%. Daily chart at this Link . I will post the Treasury auction results when they are released shortly.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 12:58:15 PM

The OEX has finally completed a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 553.19, erasing or at least easing the vulnerability to a test of the 550.23 level. That erasure is tentative, so say the least. Keltner resistance softens a bit, but can be found at 554.46, 555.45, and 556.67.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 12:56:09 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $102.41 -0.30% ... will note here that today's low (under panic reaction) would have been the WEEKLY Pivot for the week of 05/02-05/06 which was never traded. The INDU gained 1.5% that week. This may be a key level for institutional support next week. Perhaps on an early test Monday or Tuesday.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 12:52:22 PM

Nymex crude is currently down 1.20 at 50.875, off a low of 50.70. Updated chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 12:52:02 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $102.41 -0.28% ... session low looks to have been $101.50. (follow up to "bad tick.")

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 12:45:03 PM

S&P TSX Composite (Canada) down 46.92 points, or 0.49% at 9,446.67. - Yahoo Finance. My QCharts Symbol is (TSE:ISPTX) and is 15-minute delayed.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 12:38:30 PM

QQQQ has resumed its upward drift within the bear flag noted earlier, with the TRIN down to 1.18 and the TRINQ to 2.91. The 72 period SMA is down to 36.61, and the short cycle oscillators are in a so-far weak/corrective upphase within the declining 30 and 60 min channels. So long as the 35.60-.65 confluence doesn't break, the next downphase should test the current lows as the corrective bounce ends. Current 30 min channel support is down to 35.25. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 12:35:38 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $102.35 -0.34% ... not sure if that was a "bad tick" lower to $100.60 earlier or not. Hasn't been corrected at this point so traders may want to check their accounts.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 12:33:10 PM

Although the OEX is bouncing, it isn't yet effectively challenging the 553.16 level that it needs to climb above to erase vulnerability to further downside. The SOX continues to challenge its analogous Keltner level, of course, so the SOX might be important to watch. That level for the SOX is at 391.21, with the SOX currently at 390.70 and needing a 15-minute close above that Keltner level. The SOX is then going to slam into Keltner resistance again in a few points, but it would be a first step at showing some improvement in short-term outlook.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 12:32:16 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 4.2 bp at 4.180%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 12:37:00 PM

Canada .... DJ - Prime Minister Martin proposes budget vote on May 19. Martin saying he will desolve parliament if government loses vote and hold snap election.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 12:24:07 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 12:20:37 PM

Congress Reopened ... DJ- small plane threat end.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 12:18:55 PM

U.S. Treasury ... also returning to normal operations. Benchmark 10-year yield ($TNX.X) down 4.9 bp at 4.173%.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 12:18:16 PM

The SOX has already bounced all the way up to test the Keltner levels that set the breakdown signal. A 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 391.21 would erase that signal, with the SOX currently at 390.70. The SOX is then going to hit strong resistance from 393.04-394.02.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 12:16:58 PM

QQQQ has recovered back to the top of the prior range, with the short cycle oscillators ticking up. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 12:16:44 PM

White House reopening

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 12:16:22 PM

The OEX is bouncing. It hasn't yet bounced above the 553.17 Keltner line that marks next strong resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 12:14:26 PM

Capital ... Capitol ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 12:14:00 PM

Capitol Building evacuation update ... CNBC reporting ... small plane seen flying into restricted airspace. CIA saying no sign of attack.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 12:12:53 PM

Headline:

U.S. MILITARY JETS SCRAMBLE OVER WASHINGTON

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 12:11:40 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,160.97, DIA $102.20, QQQQ $35.41

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 12:14:08 PM

Capitol building being evacuated. Reports of jet fighters flying overhead.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 12:09:02 PM

Might be this- looking for confirmation:

White House and Capitol building being evacuated - DJ

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 12:08:43 PM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,161.37, DIA $102.16, QQQQ $35.44

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 12:08:41 PM

Nothing yet, Marc. Searching.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 12:08:58 PM

Keltner resistance holds and the OEX heads down toward the 550.42 downside target. Short-term bears who haven't yet taken at least partial profit need to consider doing so as that target is approached.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 12:07:53 PM

There goes the bear flag for QQQQ on a sharp drop: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 12:06:41 PM

Session high for ten year notes here, TNX currently down 5.7 bps at 4.165%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 12:04:50 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 12:00:06 PM

So far, Keltner resistance holds on the OEX. I'm worried about the shape of the decline, at least on behalf of the bears, as that's still looking like a potential bullish falling wedge, but so far, resistance holds.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 11:59:57 AM

Most Actives ... CSCO $18.27 +0.32%, QQQQ $35.48 -0.81%, AAPL $34.19 -6.12%, SPY $116.36 -0.20%, INTC $24.49 -0.72%, MSFT $24.73 -0.68%, LU $2.78 -0.71%, SUNW $3.78 -0.26%, SIRI $5.10 -1.73%, NAPS $4.40 -30.7%

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 11:57:36 AM

QQQQ update at this Link with price continuing to grind higher off the low. It feels like a bear flag, and the SMA is running lower, currently at 35.70. The 35.62 resistance level within 35.60-.65 confluence remains unchallenged, while 30 min channel support has dropped to 35.31.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 11:53:42 AM

The OEX has been testing the 553-553.50-ish Keltner area that it needs to break above before it erases the 550.63 downside target. Above that, Keltner resistance is beginning to thin just the slightest amount.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 11:44:18 AM

The TRINQ is up to 3.17, verging on an extreme reading, TRIN at 1.24. Declining volume leads advancing volume 2.18:1 on the NYSE and 2.06:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 11:44:27 AM

Napster (NAPS) $4.38 -31.18% ... a new 52-weeker.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 11:38:52 AM

The OEX rises to test Keltner resistance from 553.43-553.60. It needs to get above this level and maintain 15-minute closes above it to erase vulnerability to a downside target at 550.64. Be careful, though, bulls.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 11:36:53 AM

SOX bouncing. Needs to push above the Keltner lines currently at 391.24-391.56 and maintain 15-minute closes above them before it erases vulnerability down to 386.65, but it's created a tweezer-bottom formation on the 15-minute chart, a potential reversal signal.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 11:31:50 AM

QQQQ $35.48 -0.81% ... updated 30-minute interval chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 11:29:48 AM

QQQQ is bouncing from a low of 35.37, just walking down the lower 30 min channel support: Link . The 30 min oscillators have plenty of room to run lower, and the 35.20-.25 confluence should be easily doable provided that yesterday's lows don't get broken on a bounce. The oversold short cycle oscillators would provide the impetus for a bounce, and if such is to occur, it should be within the next 5 minutes or so. After that, these oscillators should begin trending in oversold territory.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 11:21:44 AM

The SOX has come within a couple of points of its downside Keltner target. It could create a new breakdown signal, but this means that risk might be shifting onto the shoulders of the bears, so be careful. Keltner channels were made to identify breakdowns, so it's certainly possible that breakdown could occur, but I might be lightening my bearish position and making plans to protect the profit on the rest.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 11:20:18 AM

Nymex crude -.775 to 51.30 here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 11:18:29 AM

Bearish swing trade lower stop alert on the remaining 1/2 bearish position in the QQQQ to $36.07 from $36.32. QQQQ $35.42 -0.95% here.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 11:15:09 AM

If in a short-term bearish OEX position and if no partial profit has yet been taken, I'd consider taking at least partial profit somewhere within the 550.80-552 zone.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 11:10:50 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 11:07:49 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 11:05:08 AM

TRINQ up to 1.84 and TRIN to 1.17, with declining volume:advancing volume 2.31:1 on the NYSE and 2.1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 11:03:20 AM

The OEX still maintains its vulnerability to more declines, still producing 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 554.18. Downside Keltner target is now 550.82, a horizontal S/R point in the past. Bears, keep those profit-protecting plans in mind, as the decline now begins to take on a bit of a bullish-falling-wedge look. While these sometimes break to the downside in a quick cascading fall, they often break to the upside. So far, the OEX does just what it should do to fall toward that target, but just don't let a profitable position turn unprofitable.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 11:02:03 AM

Big volume on QQQQ for a change, but so far the bounce is very slight, holding right on the steeply declining 30 min channel support. The 72 period SMA is down to 35.80, and this cycle remains bearish below it. 1st sign of trouble for bears will be a break back above yesterday's 35.62 low. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:56:30 AM

QQQQ $35.48 -0.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:56:11 AM

QQQQ trade update alert ... on remaining 1/2 bearish position, will cancel the $35.40 target at this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 10:55:18 AM

The goes 35.60 support, QQQQ breaking to a low of 35.51. Updated chart with downside fib retracements at this Link . 35.20-.25 is next strong confluence support below.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:53:56 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) $24.83 -1.03% ... closed out remaining 1/2 bearish put position earlier this morning.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 10:53:31 AM

The RLX, another indicator index I like to watch, also declines today, currently near its LOD. The BIX coils.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 10:53:18 AM

Volume breadth is negative but has not worsened appreciably, with declining volume outpacing advancing volume 1.48:1 on the NYSE and 1.64:1 on the Nasdaq. The TRIN is still at 1, TRINQ down to 1.38.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:52:58 AM

Google Inc. (GOOG) $229.01 +0.54% ... off session high of $230.27.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 10:52:14 AM

The TRAN coils within today's range.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 10:51:49 AM

TNX has edged up slightly from its lows, currently down 5.2 bps at 4.17%, passing the initial test of the top of 4.14%-4.16% confluence. But at current levels, the stalled daily cycle upphase is in jeopardy of whipsawing to the downside again, which will be confirmed if 4.14% support gets broken.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:51:45 AM

QQQQ $35.60 ... session low

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 10:51:43 AM

The SOX has created a breakdown signal on its 15-minute Keltner chart, with a downside target of 386.99, with the SOX currently at 391.04 and trying to hang onto that 390-391 level.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 10:50:09 AM

No 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 554.63, but the OEX does try to steady on Keltner support from 553.51-554.06. As long as it can't produce those 15-minute closes above that first Keltner resistance, however, it remains vulnerable to more downside.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:48:59 AM

Bearish swing trade close out 1/2 position alert for the QQQQ $35.64 here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:45:23 AM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.03 +1.23% ... investors should have received their monthly $0.075 per share dividend yesterday. I haven't seen any declaration for May at this time.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 10:44:18 AM

Nymex crude -.725 at 51.35 here. Chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 10:42:33 AM

Headlines:

API: GASOLINE SUPPLIES UP 84,000 BARRELS

API: CRUDE SUPPLIES DOWN 6.1 MILLION BARRELS

API: DISTILLATE SUPPLIES UP 2.2 MILLION BARRELS

The EIA reported crude inventories +2.67M barrels, distillates +1.7M barrels and gasoline +187K barrels.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 10:41:47 AM

Once again, the OEX tests the Keltner line currently at 554.75, with a 15-minute close above this line needed to erase vulnerability to the downside. Resistance that is perhaps stronger can be found just overhead at 556.03-557.29, however, with the 200-ema in that range, too. The OEX is currently at 554.81.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:40:28 AM

QQQQ $35.65 ... session low has been $35.61 (DAILY S1). No trade at WEEKLY Pivot ($35.59) yet.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 10:34:55 AM

OEX maintaining its breakdown signal and vulnerability to a target now at 550.98. Continue to protect profits if in bearish positions, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 10:34:54 AM

QQQQ testing yesterday's low on a sharp drop from 35.78, with 30 min channel support down to 35.60: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:34:29 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,163.65, DIA $102.52, QQQQ $36.63

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:33:51 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 10:29:37 AM

Ten year bonds continue higher, TNX now down 6 bps at 4.162%, knocking at the door of 4.14%-4.16% confluence support. This sharp drop has already stalled the daily cycle upphase, with a retest of the daily cycle low at 4.14% appearing imminent: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 10:27:15 AM

SOX still headed lower, but now trying to steady at Keltner support. That support turns lower, however, so that it's possible that the SOX could just slide down those Keltner lines currently just below the SOX's 392.56 level.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 10:25:41 AM

Lots of zooming around on the TRAN and maybe more to come after the inventories number is released. The TRAN is currently at 3510, well off the day's high of 3543.13, but also off the day's low of 3498.73.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:24:32 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $34.49 -5.16% ... "red apple" sale this weekend at Foleys." Getting whacked.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 10:19:24 AM

New breakdown signal on the OEX. These breakdown signals haven't precipitated strong declines toward the downside target, now just above 551, so far, but as long as the OEX continues producing 15-minute closes below the Keltner line currently at 554.77, it remains vulnerable to more downside. If in bearish positions on yesterday's rollover or even today's, of course, be prepared to protect profits at any moment.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:27:50 AM

Bearish swing trade close out 1/2 position alert on the QQQQ $35.66 -0.30% ... should it trade $35.60 If traded, will still hold 1/2 bearish in the MM profiles. (more for the 1,000 share = full position trader)

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 10:18:35 AM

Session low for QQQQ at 35.66. Yesterday's low was 35.62.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:15:03 AM

Google (GOOG) $229.95 +0.94% ... new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:12:25 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link ... Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 10:11:57 AM

Volume breadth is negative with declining volume volume exceeding advancing volume 1.52:1 on the NYSE and 1.4:1 on the Nasdaq, with the TRIN at 1.0 and the TRINQ more bearish at 1.47.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 10:08:44 AM

Session high for 10-yr bonds here, with TNX down to a 4.2 bp loss at 4.18%, QQQQ holding 3 cents off the 35.69 low. Updated QQQQ chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 10:03:39 AM

The Fed has just replaced the 5.75B overnight repo expiring with a massive 11B overnight repo for a net add of 5.25B for the day. As well, the 898B coupon pass is payable today, which supplements the net add in that amount.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 10:02:52 AM

As the OEX travels down toward yesterday's low, bears need to have profit-protecting plans in mind in case there's a bounce from yesterday's low or from above it. As long as the OEX cannot maintain 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 555.10, it remains vulnerable to more downside and a 15-minute close below the line currently at 554.44 resets that downside target, now at 551.15, but we saw how reliable that target was yesterday, right? I'd expect the same degree of reliability today. Could get there, could not get there.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:01:59 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 9:56:38 AM

New low for QQQQ at 34.74, finally breaking free of the 72 period SMA and reaching for lower 30 min channel support. 35.60-.65 remains the key support immediately below: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 9:56:33 AM

QQQQ $35.74 -0.08% ... slips back under DAILY Pivot after higher open.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 9:54:55 AM

The OEX is turning down from various forms of resistance I detailed earlier. Keltner support is from 554.02-554.51.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 10:04:15 AM

VIX.X 14.91 (unch) ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 13.71, 14.27, Piv= 14.69, 15.25, 15.67.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 9:52:06 AM

The OEX's 200-sma at 555.37 is giving it trouble this morning . . . or perhaps it's the bottom of the long-term roughly 555.60-563.30-ish S/R zone or the Keltner resistance currently at 555.32. Take your pick, but the OEX currently struggles with resistance from several forms and will remain vulnerable to further declines until it can maintain values above them.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 9:49:15 AM

Gold and silver are holding their losses as bonds chop sideways at the highs and QQQQ at the lows. Gold is down 1.2 at 426.80, silver -.046 at 7.067, with HUI and XAU extending yesterday's losses, -.52% at 181.01 and -.34% at 83.88 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 9:44:05 AM

CBOE Internet (INX.X) 182.81 -1.15% ... sector loser early.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 9:43:10 AM

So far, the OEX has not been able to maintain levels above that Keltner resistance that it pierced today. As long as it cannot maintain 15-minute closes above that line, it remains vulnerable to more declines. Currently that line is at 555.34 and the OEX is at 555.44, having just inched back higher, so it's going to be iffy as to whether it will close above that resistance or not. Leaving a long upper shadow on that 15-minute candle isn't going to be a positive, though.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 9:42:40 AM

Filled on three (3) of the Google GOOG May $220 Puts (GOU-QD) at $1.00. Now need the "slam and smash" move into Friday's expiration on the remaining one (1) to get back this loss. Things were looking good until the last 30-minutes of trade yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 9:40:07 AM

Predictably, with crude having pulled back overnight, the TRAN zoomed up this morning. Also not so unusual for the TRAN, it eschewed the formation of a right shoulder for the inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart and just shot up through the neckline of that incomplete formation. The upside target of that formation would have been at about 3570 if it had completed, but the inventories number could change the setup in the TRAN today, so be careful of assumptions either direction. The TRAN currently faces Keltner resistance at 3547.40, with the TRAN at 3539.09 and pulling back from the day's high.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 9:55:22 AM

Bearish swing trade stop alert for the Sandisk SNDK July $27.50 Put (SWQ-SY) at the bid of $2.95. SNDK $25.21 +0.47% here.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 9:36:24 AM

Stronger Keltner resistance is from 556.70-557.50, with the important 200-ema also within that range.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 9:36:20 AM

QQQQ at 35.84 is holding firmly in its range, with 30 min resistance up to 36 and support down to 35.73: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 9:35:29 AM

The OEX does break above first Keltner resistance and the 200-sma at the open, but bulls want more: they want to see the OEX maintain a first 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 555.35.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 9:34:56 AM

Google (GOOG) $229.21 +0.61% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 9:34:31 AM

Bearish swing trade put stop alert on three (3) of the Google GOOG May $220 Puts (GOU-QD) at $1.00

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 9:29:18 AM

Bonds have whipped back up, with TNX breaking the earlier low, currently down 3.2 bps at 4.19%. The Treasury is auctioning 15B in 5 year T-notes, the results of which are expected at 1PM.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 9:28:23 AM

Google (GOOG) $227.80 ... $228.70 pre-market. update alert ... If the Google GOOG May $220 Put (GOU-QD) does trade $1.10 stop, I'm going to sell just three (3) of the four options and then wait a bit.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 9:24:09 AM

QQQQ $35.77 ... $35.88 pre-market.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 9:23:29 AM

I'll remind readers again before the close today, but I have jury duty tomorrow, and of course do not know whether I'll be gone just part of a day or all day or even many days.

Jane Fox : 5/11/2005 9:23:33 AM

Here are the futures overnight. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 9:22:06 AM

Jane, the timestamp on the first news report that I found was 3:26, I assume EST, but perhaps not.

Jane Fox : 5/11/2005 9:19:16 AM

Linda that report didn't happen to come out at 4:45 did it. The overnight session made a huge spike at that time.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 9:19:12 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) $25.09 .... $25.23 pre-market and will most likely be stopped out of the July $27.50 Puts this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2005 9:17:50 AM

Google Inc. (GOOG) $227.80 ... $229.00 pre-market and will most likely be stopped out of the May $220 puts at the open.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 9:16:51 AM

Is anyone else skeptical about all this "old research" related to the taking back of the story about the yuan's re-valuing possibly taking place next week? Last week, research published in several newspapers and journals suggested that the government would do better to widen the trading band for the yuan rather than re-value it, and then there was last night's development (see my Asia/Europe report). Does anyone else suspect that the government, through writers and researchers, might be floating several theories and seeing how markets react, using the information to make decisions?

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 9:05:37 AM

Yesterday, the OEX almost fell out of the approximate 555.60-563.30 S/R zone carried forward from its monthly chart, but struggled up toward the bottom of that zone and the 200-sma by the close: Link As bearish as the day's action was, the OEX did not violate the ascending trendline off the April low, and the last-minute move looked as if there were at least some traders willing to buy the test of the 200-sma. That late-day move erased the breakdown signal on the 15-minute Keltner chart, but the erasing of that signal was just as suspect as the almost-as-late-in-the-day setting of that signal. All day I had warned traders to be a bit skeptical of the downside targets. Was the setting of that target or the erasing of it most valid?

The 15-minute Keltner channels suggest that until the OEX can produce 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 555.28, it's vulnerable to more downside. It takes 15-minute closes below a Keltner line currently at 554.66 to reset that downside target, with the target at 551.21. The 15-minute price/MACD shows tentative bullish divergence. Futures are slightly higher this morning, although there was a lot of volatility overnight in futures markets due to various global economic and political developments. If the OEX should bounce again past that first Keltner resistance, next resistance is at 556.63-557.52, with that resistance still looking relatively firm as the day ended yesterday. Once past that, the OEX could chop around again within that S/R zone, heading first toward 559.88 before facing next potentially strong Keltner resistance, but that first task is to make it past the 200-sma and the Keltner resistance there, before we start counting too much on upside, either. Remember that although I inadvertently fibbed when saying that the OEX had never moved smoothly through that chop zone over the last several years, it nevertheless does tend to chop around for days or weeks once hitting it. Be careful.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 8:48:29 AM

Nymex crude is down .70 here to 51.375, off a session low of 51.20. Updated 50-tick chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 8:45:12 AM

Equities have recovered their earlier losses, QQQQ back to 35.89, ES 1169.5, NQ 1459 and YM 10295.

The weekly oil supply data will be released at 10:30 today. Expectations are for a 1.25M barrel rise in crude inventories, 275K barrel rise in distillate supplies and a 900K barrel rise in gasoline supplies.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 8:38:46 AM

Ten year treasuries have flipped to negative territory, TNX up .2 bps at 4.224% with 4.2% supporting the opening drop. The daily cycle upphase is still in progress despite this week's pullback in the TNX, but another down day would likely stall it. Updated daily chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 8:32:29 AM

Bonds and equities are weaker in the wake of the data, but bonds took the bigger move down, with QQQQ holding at 35.84 here. CAD and euro futures lurched lower, as did gold and silver.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 8:31:32 AM

Headline:

U.S. MARCH TRADE GAP NARROWS 9.2% TO $55 BILLION

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 8:31:06 AM

Trade balance less than expected, -55B vs. -62B exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 8:24:33 AM

Bonds have advanced, with ZN now up to 111 7/16 and TNX quoted lower by 1.8 bps at 4.204%. QQQQ dropped to a session low of 35.79, testing the 72 period SMA and finding support, currently back to 35.85. Looks like some fear ahead of the Trade Balance data due in 6 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 7:30:44 AM

The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that mortgage applications increased 9.4% in the week ended May 6th. Refinancing applications were up 9.8%, and the Purchase Index was up 9.4%.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/11/2005 7:27:44 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1169, NQ 1459, YM 10290 and QQQQ +.13 at 35.90. Gold is up .70 to 428.70, silver down .017 to 7.096, ten year notes +1/32 to 111 13/32 and crude oil -.475 to 51.60.

We await the 8:30 release of the March Trade Balance, est. -62B, and at 2PM, the Treasury Budget for April, est. 58B.

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2005 7:22:59 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei dropped overnight, but did close well off its midmorning low. Many other Asian markets declined. This morning, European markets are mixed. Our futures are higher, but off their overnight high. As of 6:24 EST, gold was up $1.00, and crude, down $0.67 to $51.40. A People's Daily report apparently set a time frame for a Chinese government decision on the yuan's adjustment, setting that for next week. Although the People's Bank of China has since denied the report and the writer reportedly confessed that the report was based on old information, currency markets were subjected to some gyrations. Last night, North Korea had confirmed that it had made moves toward strengthening its nuclear arsenal, and that announcement had weakened the yen against the dollar, but the report about the yuan changed the dynamic and again strengthened the yen against the dollar, a strengthening that has itself since been partially undone. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Amid concerns about rising crude costs, earnings disappointments from big-cap Japanese stocks, and declines on U.S. markets, the Nikkei gapped lower Wednesday morning and headed straight down for a test of 11,000. By midmorning, it had dipped to its day's low of 11,038.26, but then it spent the rest of the day climbing off that low. It closed down only 38.76 points or 0.35%, at 11,120.70, more than 80 points off that low of the day.

Toyota's earnings had been impacted by higher steel and plastics prices and currency issues. NTT DoCoMo gave a dour outlook for profit for the year. Softbank's Q4 net loss doubled.

Many other Asian markets declined. The Taiwan Weighted dropped 0.55%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 1.17%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.34%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.56%. China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.99%.

European markets showed mixed trading patterns, with oil-related issues dropping as crude costs eased and some financials hurt by speculation that they're exposed to potentially troubled hedge funds, as reported by Jim Brown in last night's OptionInvestor Wrap. Some banks had struggled higher in earliest trading, however, although French bank BNP Paribas SA gained in earliest trading even after Standard & Poor's downgraded some of its debt obligations. Some insurers were reporting, with Dutch insurer Aegon NV disappointing and dropping heavily as a result, down 14% at one point in the morning.

In the U.K., the March trade deficit narrowed when expectations had been for a small widening, although it might also be worth noting that February's number was revised to show a slightly wider gap than had been previously reported. The improvement was seen in trade with non-EU companies, and some warned that seasonal adjustments in trade with non-EU countries might have made month-to-month comparisons unreliable. Also in the U.K., the quarterly inflation report showed that although the CPI might rise above the 2% target in year 1 of the projection, it should then fall back below that target in later years. The projection shows risks essentially balanced, one source concludes. A slowdown in consumer spending is real, with the subdued housing market likely to continue to impact spending, the report concludes. The Bank of England remains concerned about currency issues and about an easing in global economic growth.

In stock-specific news, a cash acquisition in the shipping container sector, of Royal P&O Nedlloyd NV by Denmark's A.P. Moeller Maersk, buoyed markets somewhat, as did speculation that Cadbury Schweppes PLC might be acquired by Hershey Corp. or Kraft. Some expressed skepticism about some bidders for Cadbury. Rumors also swirled that Dutch bank ABN Amro Holding NV might soon gain approval for its offer for Italy's Banca Antonveneta, winning out over a rival bidder. Other issues reacted to news or earnings reports, with German airline Lufthansa Group rising after reporting a smaller loss than expected, French drinks group Pernod Ricard gaining after an earnings report that showed mixed sales results but included significant gains in operating earnings for the first half of the year, and French luxury goods group Hermes dropping after its earnings report.

As of 7:07 EST, the FTSE 100 had dropped 12.20 points or 0.25%, to 4,880.20. The CAC 40 had dropped 6.91 points or 0.17%, to 3,993.34. The DAX gained 7.51 points or 0.18%, to 4,258.64.

Market Monitor Archives