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Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 1:16:00 AM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.69 and set for program selling at $-0.36. Fair value for the S&P 500 is +1.36.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 12:32:42 AM

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05m) up 4.5 points at 1,462.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 12:32:07 AM

e-mini S&P (es05m) up 2.50 points at 1,161.75.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 12:29:05 AM

Taiwan Weighted (TWII) Link up 50 at 5,985.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 12:27:19 AM

Japan's Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) Link down 16 points at 11,061.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 12:20:45 AM

Amex Gold Bugs (HUI.X) weekly interval chart at this link. "Wavers" probably all over this one. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:59:44 PM

June Gold (gc05m) down $0.10 at $422.10

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:56:38 PM

Currency ... People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiachuan saying that reports of a yuan revaluation on May 18 are inaccurate.

Tab Gilles : 5/12/2005 10:35:56 PM

$USD Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:32:30 PM

Currency ... Japan's Finance Minister saying he isn't sure how well-prepared China is for change to its FX system of pegging the yuan to the U.S. Dollar. The Finance Minister's comments came after the People's Bank of China Deputy Governor said that the bank is now "technically" prepared to carry out currency reforms.

Tab Gilles : 5/12/2005 10:30:29 PM

DELL Several key technicals on this chart. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:21:04 PM

Oil sector bell curve components from Wednesday's close at this Link and then Thursday's bell curve at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 5/12/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 9:00:03 PM

General Motors (GM) $30.62 ... big block of 1,541,600 billed out at $30.63 (17:32:20)

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 8:27:12 PM

Linda yes, I typed wrong name. I meant Jane and have corrected. How is Michael holding up?

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 8:24:11 PM

September Crude Futures (cl05u) with bullish and bearishly fitted retracement at this Link ... downside risk should be to $48.50 as trader's bias now bearish.

Linda Piazza : 5/12/2005 8:00:24 PM

Jeff, I think that Jane made that 10:55:31 post. Unfortunately (for me), I was serving on a jury at that time today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 7:07:04 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 6:40:28 PM

e-mini NASDAQ 1,461.50 up 4 points.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 6:37:24 PM

Calpine (CPN) $1.91 -4.02% ... $1.88 after Moody's downgrades debt a notch to B3 from B2 with negative outlook. S&P downgraded company's debt earlier this week.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 6:34:36 PM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) surging further 85.65

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 6:21:10 PM

Oil sector bell curve components at this Link ... Wednesday evening's close.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 6:10:36 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link ... June Crude Oil futures (cl05m) settled down $1.91, or -3.79% in Thursday's trade.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 8:33:48 PM

NYSE Comp. Bullish % ($BPNYA) Link saw a net loss of roughly 10 stocks to a reversing lower point and figure sell signal today. Still "bear alert" at 55.12%. NASDAQ Comp. Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) Link saw a net gain of roughly 4 stocks to a point and figure buy signal. Still "bear confirmed" at 37.50%. Per last night's Market Wrap, if I take these two bullish % and add them up (55.12 + 37.50) and divide by two (2), it should be close to the sector bell curve average level.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 5:52:12 PM

Closing Internals at this Link NYSE NH/NL ratio chart at this Link where 5-day NH/NL ratio reverses back lower, but the intermediate term 10-day NH/NL ratio gets 58% reading.

Tab Gilles : 5/12/2005 5:44:13 PM

DELL After Hours: Last 37.60 Change +0.99 Volume 2.762 Mil

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 8:35:09 PM

Franklin Covey (FC) $4.14 +3.5% ... closed at a new 52-week high.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 8:25:08 PM

Jane ... just seeing your 10:55:31 post. Boy did today's trade in 4-lettered stocks look like some expiration action. Never did find out "reason" why Intel (INTC) dropped sharply from $24.92 to $24.05 at 10:55-11:00, then ripped right back up to $25.00 over next 40-minutes. Action correlative with the offsetting buy/sell premiums and your TICK observation. Then saw similar action in Sirius Satellite (SIRI) when I was day trade long, SIRI suddenly spikes lower from $5.17 to $5.09 on 1.687 million shares, then marches right back up to close at high of day with 2.97 million traded in last 5-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 5:17:41 PM

C'mon Mr. Kudlow ... you yourself noted "gold below $400" when the Fed was cutting rates, confirming the Fed's action when others were saying "Fed too loose." Gold still above $400 even though the miners are getting whacked.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 5:05:52 PM

QQQQ $35.85 -0.27% ... ticking $35.95. Post-session high has been $35.99. DAILY Pivot Levels for tomorrow ... $35.36, $35.61, Piv= $35.90, $36.15, $36.44.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 5:01:50 PM

Dell (DELL) $37.56 ... extended session low of $36.15 was snapped up at DAILY S1 ($36.18). If you're an extendes session bull, be careful at WEEKLY R1 of $38.04. CSCO found sellers in its extended session earlier this week at WEEKLY R1. ... as Jonathan would say ... "upper Keltner resistance at $37.60"

Tab Gilles : 5/12/2005 4:55:42 PM

DELL After Hours: Last 37.41 Change +0.80 Volume 2.059 Mil

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 4:47:58 PM

Dell (DELL) dumping 1,000 long at $37.50. DAILY R1 $37.00 and DAILY R2 $37.33.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 4:40:34 PM

QQQQ $35.85 -0.27% ... $35.94

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 4:39:49 PM

Dell (DELL) $36.61 +0.19% ... ticking higher at $37.40

Jim Brown : 5/12/2005 4:29:11 PM

DELL VERY, VERY little volume in Dell ahead of their conference call. Looks like everybody is holding their breath.

Jim Brown : 5/12/2005 4:27:40 PM

Dell guidance +37 to +39 for Q2 and inline with analyst estimates for +38.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 4:24:57 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) $36.61 +0.19% ... jumping to $37.10

Tab Gilles : 5/12/2005 4:21:05 PM

Dell's First-Quarter Results Particularly Strong Outside U.S.; Company Forecasts Higher Revenue Growth in Second Quarter; Storage Products and Mobile Computing Driving Global Growth

May 12, 2005 4:12:00 PM ET Dell DELL continued to grow significantly faster than the rest of the industry in all global regions, customer segments and product categories during its fiscal first-quarter 2006, and did so with strong profitability. The company also said it expects revenue growth to be higher in the second quarter. Revenue growth outside of the United States and in strategic products and services highlighted the first quarter. Sales outside the U.S. increased 21 percent year-over-year and grew to 42 percent of the company's total revenue. Worldwide revenue from storage systems increased 49 percent and sales of mobility products grew 22 percent from a year ago. For the quarter ended April 29, the company achieved total revenue of $13.4 billion, a 16-percent increase year-over-year, and net earnings of 37 cents per share, up 32 percent and a company record. First Quarter (in millions, except share data) FY'06 FY'05 Change ------- -------- ------ Revenue $13,386 $ 11,540 16% Operating Income $ 1,174 $ 966 22% Net Income $ 934 $ 731 28% EPS $ 0.37 $ 0.28 32% "Our greatest strength in the quarter was precisely in the products, services and regions in which we're most focused on growing," said Kevin Rollins, Dell's chief executive officer. "Customers worldwide are increasingly relying on us for their diversified information-technology requirements." Mr. Rollins said the company expects second-quarter fiscal 2006 to produce a revenue increase of 16 to 18 percent, to $13.6 to $13.8 billion, and earnings per share of 37 to 39 cents. In the first quarter, Dell's operating margin as a percent of revenue was 8.8 percent, up from 8.4 percent a year ago. The company generated $1.2 billion in cash flow from operations. Dell repurchased more than 50 million shares of its common stock during the quarter for $2 billion, a company record, and has reduced Dell's shares outstanding by more than 80 million over the past year. Significant Growth Outside the U.S. Revenue in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) and in Asia-Pacific and Japan (APJ) grew 20 percent and 19 percent, respectively. Overall company shipments in EMEA increased 26 percent as Dell closed the gap on the regional leader by almost two share points. Sales of Dell storage systems increased more than 60 percent year-over-year. Revenue from software and peripherals rose 37 percent, led by strong growth in imaging and printing products. Revenue from mobility products increased 20 percent, as shipments of notebook computers rose 39 percent. Regional server shipments were up 23 percent, more than twice the average of other companies. In APJ, overall shipments of Dell products increased 27 percent from a year ago, double the rest of the industry. Server volumes grew 38 percent, resulting in revenue growth of 17 percent. Shipments of notebook computers increased 41 percent, driving a 22-percent rise in revenue from mobility products. Storage revenue grew 36 percent. Sales of software and peripheral products were up 52 percent. Regional shipments in the Americas increased 17 percent year-over-year. Storage revenue grew 47 percent. Regional sales from mobility products increased 22 percent. Combined sales in Canada and Latin America were 32 percent higher than a year ago. For the fifth straight quarter, Dell ranked No. 1 in U.S. share of every industry product category and customer segment. Enhanced Services, S&P Growth Revenue from enhanced services, including professional and managed services supporting Dell's enterprise customers, rose 30 percent worldwide, even faster in EMEA and APJ. Services and storage revenue directly benefit from Dell's growing server business, shipments for which increased 25 percent worldwide. Worldwide revenue from software and peripherals -- including imaging and printing, televisions and displays -- increased 29 percent. Sales of printer ink, toner and supplies nearly doubled as customers continued to embrace the ease of buying those products online. Dell's broadening printer line spans both ink-jet and laser models and the company is introducing those products to more regions and customers.

Jim Brown : 5/12/2005 4:16:45 PM

It is going to be interesting to see how the market reacts to an inline number from Dell. Inline has not generated much excitement, especially just ahead of the summer slump.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 4:15:17 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link ... Today's Activity ... closed out the 1/2 bullish swing trade long in shares of eBay (EBAY) at $33.90. ($+0.66, or +1.99%). Day traded long shares of Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) at the offer of $2.21, but was stopped out at $2.15. ($-0.06, or -1.15%) Swing traded call option play for Sirius Satellite Radio and four (4) of the SIRI Dec $5 Calls (QXO-LA) at the offer of $1.05. Not stop and targeting $12

Jim Brown : 5/12/2005 4:14:12 PM

DELL reports inline at +37 cents. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 4:09:21 PM

Quotetracker users can click the intraday chart and hit ctrl-shift-H to remove it.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 4:08:47 PM

Bad tick to 37.73 here- QQQQ's all over the map on IB.

Tab Gilles : 5/12/2005 4:02:33 PM

DELL Weekly chart. Let's see what direction Dell goes when the #s come out, soon. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 3:58:08 PM

Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $5.25 pressing morning highs now.

Tab Gilles : 5/12/2005 3:58:04 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) Weekly chart. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/12/2005 3:56:50 PM

If the OEX is forming an inverse H&S on the daily chart, the OEX needs to firm up somewhere between about 550-552.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 3:48:39 PM

The 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators are in downphases for QQQQ with plenty of room to run before reaching oversold, suggesting weakness into tomorrow. The daily cycle has yet to roll over, but the indicators are looking topped out and today's high volume gravestone doji is a potential reversal pattern- and the peak came at the upper bollinger band as well. A move below 35.50 should be enough to generate the first sell signals in this longer timeframe.

Linda Piazza : 5/12/2005 3:48:23 PM

The OEX so far continues the picture of potential Keltner-style bullish divergence. Resistance is at 553.18 and then 554.54-556.06.

Linda Piazza : 5/12/2005 3:46:13 PM

As I look at the Keltner outlook for the BIX, RLX, TRAN and SOX, I see a mixture of outlooks, with some looking stronger (or rather, not as weak) and some weaker. The TRAN, the weakest of the lot, has already dropped below what was bottom support on the 15-minute channels. Without a quick bounce, it's creating a new breakdown signal that could send it down to test 3406-3408. It's trying to bounce as I type, but will now encounter Keltner resistance strong enough that the TRAN is going to need some traction to get above it.

Tab Gilles : 5/12/2005 3:43:11 PM

Wal-Mart (WMT) and the price of oil. They partly blamed their earnings on the price of gas. Here's a 4 year chart of WMT/$WTIC. Link

Different chart for upscale retailer Saks (SKS) Link

Linda Piazza : 5/12/2005 3:38:56 PM

I'm back after having completed my civic duty and served on a jury today. Dallas County does it crazy, sending us first to downtown Dallas and then picking a group of us to go to another small suburban town to serve in a JP court. Tough for those of us who took trains downtown or rode in with our husbands!

Here's what I see Keltner-wise on the OEX's 15-minute chart. For the last several hours, the OEX has been teetering on the edge of a cliff that would set a new downside target of 549.21. Keltner-wise, the OEX looks in a little better shape (hasn't violated one channel by as much) today than it was yesterday, but that can be quickly changed. For now, there's tentative bullish divergence, but that just puts bears on warning to protect profits. That 549.18 downside target can still be hit. For now, 553.28 looks like first resistance, with 554.79-555.22 being next resistance above that.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 3:37:07 PM

SPY $115.99 -1.08% ... set to challenge yesterday's low.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 3:32:56 PM

NYSE declining volume is 4.43:1 over advancing volume, Nasdaq much more tame at 1.58:1.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 3:32:09 PM

QQQQ update at this Link with price holding after doji to 35.65 support. A move through the confluence to 35.60 would be an extremely bearish (ie less likely) trending move, given the oversold short cycle oscillators.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 3:26:58 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 3:21:23 PM

Nymex crude reopens, up .275 at 48.825 here as the evening session gets started.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 3:17:39 PM

VXN.X 18.55 +3.80% ... session high and has followed VIX.X's earlier lead. Weekly Pivot just ahead at 18.61. QQQQ $35.74.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 3:16:03 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 3:13:10 PM

Volume has thinned on this bounce, with QQQQ pulling back from beneath 35.85 here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 3:07:56 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 3:05:38 PM

Ten year notes finished a tick off their high of the day, TNX closing +1.8 bps at 4.184%. Crude oil finished at 48.55, awaiting reopen for the evening session.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 3:02:08 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert ... for four (4) of the Sirius Satellite Radio SIRI Dec $5 Calls (QXO-LA) at the offer of $1.05.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 2:59:57 PM

Sirius (SIRI) $5.22 +0.96% ... wondering if that "burst of volume" to the downside earlier, which stopped us out, wasn't a way for the options market makert to offset the open interest disparity between the $5 put/call. Once done, stock has been edging ever so slightly higher.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 2:57:54 PM

TRIN 1.35 continues it rise above DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 2:57:06 PM

Google (GOOG) $228.67 -1.13% ... a lot of action in the May $230 C 13,921:37,642 and May $230 Put 10,564:8,062

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 2:55:39 PM

QQQQ is bouncing here from a low of 35.68, just above the key 35.60-.65 confluence. The short cycle oscillators are just reaching oversold territory, and the 35.60-.65 looks good as support for this run. A bounce to a lower high will set up a more aggressive test on the next downphase, provided that the SMA at 36.00 doesn't get broken as resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 2:53:02 PM

Google (GOOG) 228.25 -1.31% ... approaching yesterday's low. Volume building. WEEKLY Interval chart would print a "doji" here. Did same thing week of 11/28/04, then fell 12 points from high/low following week.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 2:43:32 PM

Ten year bonds are advancing sharply, TNX now down 2.2 bps at 4.18%. Below this level, the 4.14%-4.16% confluence support is back in play. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 2:38:26 PM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $5.20 ... slight reversal of fortune here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 2:36:04 PM

Fedex (FDX) $85.40 -2.52% ... approaching May "Max Pain" of $85.00 ($5 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 2:34:07 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,450.55 -2.36% ... trading 19.1% retracement.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 2:29:39 PM

QQQQ update at this Link with price testing lower 60 min channel support. 35.60-.65 is key confluence support below.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 2:29:38 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,160.86, DIA $102.24, QQQQ $35.81 . May be getting some "basket selling" to offset weakness in energy.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 2:27:52 PM

Nymex crude is up 12.5 cents off the low to 48.75, -1.975 here with less than 5 minutes left of the regular session. The CRB has been shellacked today, -4.65 at 296.30. Copper, cotton and crude oil were the 3 weakest components in the index.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 2:24:18 PM

Nasdaq declining volume has finally overtaken advancing volume, 1.23:1 here. On the NYSE, it's 3.19:1, with the TRIN up to 1.31.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 2:28:50 PM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $36.04 -3.06% Link ... sets up for test of bar chart's upward trend and May 2004 low of $35.00. Would expect some shorts to lock in gains there. Bearish verticl count a bit lower to $33.00. Sector bullish % (BPPREC) "bear confirmed" at 30%. Did go to 12% in May of last year.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 2:18:19 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 5/12/2005 2:18:18 PM

Biotech Index ($BTK) Hitting resistance at 550 level. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 2:15:42 PM

Session low for ES and YM just now with oil holding near the lows. QQQQ is holding the previous low at 35.95, unchanged and ticking lower as I type. Link Ten year notes at a session high, TNX now -0.6 bps at 4.196%.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 2:09:55 PM

Crude oil hit a low of 48.35 there. Updated 50 tick chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 2:08:18 PM

General Motors (GM) $30.44 -1.77% ... post bearish profile low here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 2:04:13 PM

02:00 Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 1:59:33 PM

Bonds are firming, TNX down to a 0.2 bp gain at 4.204%. Crude oil is down 3.52% or 1.775 at 48.675.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 1:56:04 PM

PcQuote reports the TRINQ up to .09 here, while DTN has it up to .43. Either way, this remains strong net buying pressure reflected in Nasdaq volume breadth. Chartwise, QQQQ is holding below the 72 period SMA and support is edging down from 35.90 and should continue to do so as long as QQQQ holds south of 36.05. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 1:59:00 PM

Sirius (SIRI) $5.15 ... $5.15 x $5.16 ... the May $5 Calls had OI of 12,948 while the $5 Puts had OI of 11,404 as of last night.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 1:51:27 PM

TRIN alert 1.10

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 1:49:40 PM

Sirius (SIRI) $5.12 -0.96% ... volume had really been drying after the open, but saw 1.68 million in that 5-minute interval from $5.17-$5.09 when mid-point of days range was violated.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 1:42:24 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert for Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $5.15

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 1:36:15 PM

QQQQ testing the lower rising wedge support, volume picking up as I type as price ticks below it: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 1:31:13 PM

Another quote source reads .41 for the TRINQ. I'm very confident that .03 is incorrect. Either that, or I've just spotted a very bullish rogue wave blowing in.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 1:30:20 PM

Little change breadth-wise, with 1.4 declining NYSE shares for each advancing, while the Nasdaq has 2.25 advancing for each declining. The TRIN is down to .87, while the TRINQ is reading... .03. That's not a typo, but it must be bad data.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 1:14:33 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 1:10:20 PM

Volume has slowed considerably, with the market growing quiet. QQQQ is hugging the 72 period SMA at 35.07, holding above the lower rising expanding wedge support line. A break of current levels will target lower 30 min channel support at 35.90. The 30 min oscillators are ticking lower from overbought, but have yet to get rolling in their overdue downphase. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 1:04:01 PM

The ten year note auction generated a bid to cover of 2.33 and a high yield of 4.22%, with indirect bidders (foreign central banks) taking 31.4% of the total. TNX hit a session high and pulled back, curently +2.9 bps at 4.234%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 1:03:12 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 1:01:07 PM

Possible reverse h/s pattern in the SPY with yesterday's "White house" low the head. Necline marked at $117.50 where this morning's high of $117.59 got chopped off. Setting alert at $117.59 and would be surprised if we got a program premium if traded. WEEKLY Pivot marks both shoulders.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 12:58:41 PM

Ten year bonds approaching session lows, TNX +4 bps at 4.242%. The auction results are due within the next few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 12:54:42 PM

QQQQ $36.08 +0.36% ... saw a "bad tick" at $35.04, but QQQQ was trading $35.04 at the time.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 12:49:30 PM

West Texas ($WTIC) ... conventional $0.25 box at this Link and with June Crude (cl05m) $48.65 -3.56% a major negative here. $0.50 box Link and $1 box at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 12:43:45 PM

Advancing volume leads declining 2.1:1 on the Nasdaq, declining volume leads advancing 1.63:1 on the NYSE. Currently the TRIN is at .97, while the TRINQ has reached an extreme level at .25.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 12:36:39 PM

QQQQ back to testing lower wedge and 72 period SMA support here: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 12:32:50 PM

No pullback for the USD Index Link with gold and silver trading just off their lows, gold -5.50 at 422.50 and silver -.109 at 6.988. HUI is down 2.92% at 174.7, XAU -2.53% at 81.25. Crude oil is down 1.80 or 3.57% at 48.65.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 12:30:05 PM

Sirius (SIRI) $5.17 (unch) ... need buyer to defend DAILY Pivot here.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 12:26:31 PM

QQQQ intraday chart at this Link with price bouncing from above the 72 period SMA at 36.03. Forgetting the expanding wedge for a moment, bulls need a break of the current 36.20 high to resolve the deadlock to the upside. A failure from a lower high would embolden the intraday cycle bears and set up a retest of the lower rising wedge support line.

Tab Gilles : 5/12/2005 12:25:48 PM

Stock watch followup-

Symbol Technology (SBL) Bouncing of of longterm trend. Link Link

Starbuck (SBUX) Link

Basic Material (XLB) Broke below 200-ma, MACD looks bearish, set stop at $27. Link Link

Cigna (CI) Not sure if $100 is still in the cards, hold with stop at $95. MACD looking bearish. Link

Pfizer (PFE) Testing 200-ma. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 12:19:54 PM

Ford (F) $9.45 -1.97% ... off lows of $9.27. Dow Jones - Ford Motor 2031 bonds quoted at mid-price $77, off lows. Moody's downgraded debt to lowest investment grade of Baa2

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 12:18:19 PM

Collins & Aikman (NYSE:CKC) stock looks as though it has been halted all day. Dow Jones reporting its bonds are "crashing"

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 12:17:07 PM

Nymex crude oil -1.75 at 48.70 here, 15 cents above the current low. Bonds have weakened, TNX up 3 bps to 4.232% here.

Tab Gilles : 5/12/2005 12:12:05 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) Still strong after recent earnings report. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 12:11:33 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 12:09:13 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,169.48, DIA $102.98, QQQQ $36.07

Tab Gilles : 5/12/2005 12:06:44 PM

Last nights 10:59 post on Murphy Oil (MUR). Announcing a 2 for 1 stock split not helping today with $WTIC down $1.55. Link

Tab Gilles : 5/12/2005 12:04:25 PM

$SOX & SMH Look strong today. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 12:06:03 PM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $5.21 here, stop $5.15, target $5.37.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 12:01:41 PM

QQQQ intraday chart at this Link surging toward the top of the expanding wedge and testing upper 60 min channel resistance at 36.20. The 30 min cycle channel has risen off the top of the chart, in the 35.30 area at the top of the wedge.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 12:00:51 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,171.64, DIA $103.26, QQQQ $36.13

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:57:48 AM

eBay (EBAY) $33.95 +2.16% ... makes a move to session highs.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:54:14 AM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $36.08 +0.36%, INTC $24.99 +0.88% (wild intra-day $24.05-$25.00), SPY $117.23 (unch), CSCO $18.75 +1.07%, MSFT $25.05 +0.56%, ORCL $11.94 +2.05%, WMT $47.37, LU $2.87 +1.05%, AAPL $34.74 -2.41%, SIRI $5.20 +0.58%

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:50:48 AM

VIX.X 14.61 +1.10% VXN.X 17.69 -1.00% .... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 16.87, 17.37, PIV= 18.33, 18.83, 19.79.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:48:43 AM

Inflation watch ... DJ - Fed's Ferguson saying globalization may be taming inflation.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:46:29 AM

eBay (EBAY) $33.84 +1.86% ... back to try $33.91 again.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:44:46 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 11:41:43 AM

TNX +2.4 bps to 4.226% here, little net movement ahead of the Treasury auction. The results are due shortly after 1PM.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:37:00 AM

QQQQ option chain at this Link May action has the look of $36.35-$35.70.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:28:32 AM

ExxonMobil (XOM) $56.35 -1.64% ... WEEKLY S1 here at $56.24. May "Max Pain Theory" $60 in $5 increments.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:26:51 AM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) $49.30 -2.27% ... session lows holding at WEEKLY S1 of $49.03.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 11:27:39 AM

Nymex crude -1.625 to a session low of 48.80 here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:24:44 AM

Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $5.20 +0.58% ... "bad tick" to $4.48.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 11:24:26 AM

QQQQ intraday update at this Link with the short cycle oscillators drifting lower against the rising expanding wedge. These are chaotic formations, which meshes well enough with this morning's action. That said, the 30 min cycle is due for a downphase.

Tab Gilles : 5/12/2005 11:25:25 AM

The dollar started to weaken in 2002, and the euro started to turn higher for what would end up being a three year rally. We're seeing a lot of pressure on the euro in relation to the dollar. or in other words, the dollar is looking like it's getting stronger again. On a weekly EUR/USD chart watch the 1.273 +/-, this is a 1 year Fib Retracement, but it with also represent a lower significant low, and it would be the first time we've seen it in years. So has the Dollar finally gotten weak enough to start reducing the trade deficit??? If the dollar does indeed rebound then don't look for the trade gap to continue shrinking. In fact, it could be quite the opposite. So any rally based on the trade deficit news yesterday may have been too early. Besides, it was just one month's worth of data following an all-time record high deficit. Here's a chart I posted yeaterday @ 4:14PM concening the China Yuan news. Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:22:33 AM

That one was a little smaller. First couple of buy premiums were up near 3.00, that one just at 2.57. Offsetting buy/sells give "expiration feel."

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:21:26 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,169.70, DIA $103.06, QQQQ $36.04

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:19:26 AM

NASDAQ-100/QQQQ $36.02 +0.19% ... heatmap at this Link has breadth positive at 53:47

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 11:18:19 AM

Advancing volume is down to a 1.76:1 lead over declining volume on the Nasdaq, while declining volume beats advancing 1.54:1 on the NYSE. The TRIN is at .95, TRINQ less extreme at .46 but still reflecting strong buying pressure.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:17:39 AM

S&P 100 % Gainers ... ORCL +2.05%, LU +1.76%, EMC +1.68%, UIS +1.33%, DAL +1.09%

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:16:45 AM

S&P 100 % Losers AES -5.16%, ATI -4.97%, WMB -4.15%, F -3.21%, BHI -2.68%, WMT -2.42%

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:15:26 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 11:09:55 AM

Crude oil -1.125 here at 49.325. TNX is up 1.4 bps at 4.216%, ten year bonds recouping most of their earlier losses. There's a ten year note auction today, 14B to be sold.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:03:26 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 11:01:21 AM

The downward spike to 35.84 blew off in a long lower doji shadow, QQQQ back to the SMA line and back within the wedge.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 11:01:02 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,168.02, DIA $102.90, QQQQ $35.99

Tab Gilles : 5/12/2005 11:00:33 AM

$USD over $85 USD 85.60 +0.65 $GOLD Down Bid 423.50 Ask 424.00 -3.40 -0.80% $GOX Likely to head for 70 level. Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 10:58:13 AM

QQQQ has whipped lower, currently testing the 72 period SMA at 35.97 with the short cycle oscillators in a new downphase. Looks like a bearish expanding wedge or "bulloney bullhorn" with support in play now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:59:54 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,167.55, DIA $102.96, QQQQ $35.98

Jane Fox : 5/12/2005 10:55:31 AM

Jeff the offsetting buy program you talked about in your 10:52 post also pushed the TICKs to +1363, a level not seen much.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:55:21 AM

Ford (F) $9.31 -3.52% ... pulling commercial paper activity for the day.

Tab Gilles : 5/12/2005 10:54:58 AM

EVV/PHF/$FVX Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:54:53 AM

ExxonMobil (XOM) $56.23 -1.85% ... reviewed last night.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:52:54 AM

NASDAQ NH/NL running 37:37

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:52:22 AM

That was a pretty good one. $PREM.X fell to -0.73. Yesterday's "White House" went to -2.19 with the offsetting buy program premium lurching up to 4.56, which was a "dinger" in my book.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:50:56 AM

Sell Program Premium .... SPX 1,167.77, DIA $103.00, QQQQ $36.03

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:48:50 AM

QQQQ $36.06 +0.30% ... session high came just shy of DAILY R1 ($36.22). Option expire thoughts are that we've probably been getting a lot of $36.00 Call selling with just over a week to go. Premiums have been running about $0.25 cents. If "sell in May and go away" is to come to fruition (volumes have been lightening up a bit), then this might be in play. My bearish side worry is the strength in "junk bonds" of late. May be signal that market is willing to take on some risk. If GOOG wasn't enough!

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 10:47:37 AM

Nymex crude currently -1.15 at 49.30, current low 49.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:45:37 AM

eBay (ebay) $33.75 ... just kissed $33.91 again. Maybe an intra-day double top. I got filled in my personal account at $33.85 on re-test of 10:20 AM highs as I didn't get order in on time for $33.90 on first.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 10:41:25 AM

Advancing volume is now ahead of declining volume 2.86:1 on the Nasdaq, compared with 1.03:1 on the NYSE- TRINQ .36, TRIN .99. There's no question which is the stronger market here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:40:09 AM

NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 7,065.50 -0.2% ... more energy stocks listed here. OIX.X -1.82%, OSX.X -1.66%, XNG.X -1.68%. Might throw in some gold miners too with HUI.X -1.88%.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 10:39:05 AM

QQQQ to a new high at 36.19 here Link , just working its way up the 30 min cycle top. The indicators were toppy this morning and are now overbought. Much beyond current levels will become a very bullish trending move for the 30 min cycle, qualifying this as do or doo-doo time for the bears.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:38:22 AM

QQQQ $36.18 +0.63% ... sets up for test of DAILY R1. Didn't come close to testing DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:37:25 AM

VIX.X 14.25 -1.52% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:36:23 AM

I like our QQQQ stop as it is about as "tight" as I think would give some room. However... losing some convictions as we get some bullish success with some long trades.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:34:11 AM

June Crude Oil alert (cl05m) $49.40 (30-min delayed) ... when floor trade opened. Most likely what had the QQQQ moving to session high of $36.14 from $36.00. eBay (EBAY) $33.80 +1.74% after session high of $33.91.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 10:27:12 AM

Ten year yields are holding a 3.2 bp gain at 4.234%, above yesterday's long doji and back within Tuesday's range. Upside resistance is at 4.26%, support below 4.2% at 4.16%. Daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:24:33 AM

Google (GOOG) $231.22 -0.03% Link ... made a new all-time high at $232.23 earlier, and X gets the square at $232.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:22:01 AM

Bullish swing trade exit alert ... for eBay (EBAY) $33.90

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:19:49 AM

NH/NL indications at NASDAQ stronger than I would have thought even with the flat to higher open.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:18:50 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link ... Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 10:17:35 AM

QQQQ at session highs, updated chart at this Link with price reaching for upper 30 min channel resistance, currently up to 36.12. There's confluence resistance to 36.20 here on a daily cycle basis.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:15:08 AM

eBay (EBAY) $33.70 ... DAILY R1 at $33.60 with some correlation at BLUE #5 $34.06 and DAILY R2 at $33.97.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:13:49 AM

Bullish swing trade cancel target alert ... for eBay (ebay) ... raise target to $33.90.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 10:07:39 AM

Volume breadth is mixed across the exchanges, with declining volume ahead of advancing 1.52:1 on the NYSE, advancing beating declining 1.18:1 on the Nasdaq. The TRIN is at .92, Nasdaq .69, both neutral but with the Nasdaq oriented more bullishly so far.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:07:24 AM

VIX.X 14.64 +1.31% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 13.37, 13.93, Piv= 14.86, 15.42, 16.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 10:03:51 AM

Nymex crude has reopened and is currently -.975 to 49.475, off a low of 49.45.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 10:03:39 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 9:57:29 AM

QQQQ breaks below the SMA line here, targeting the 30 min channel bottom at 35.87. So long as price holds below the SMA (currently 35.95), that support should decline.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 9:57:11 AM

Markets softening up a bit here.... SPY $117.00 -0.19%, QQQQ $35.92 -0.08% and DIA $102.88 -0.13% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 9:56:25 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert on eBay (EBAY) $33.44 ... to break even.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 9:53:58 AM

The Fed has announced a 9B overnight repo, for a net drain of 1B for the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 9:42:49 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link with price testing the upper 30 and 60 min channel tops. 72 period SMA support is at 35.95, below which the 30 min cycle upphase will stall.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 9:44:33 AM

Wal Mart (WMT) $46.75 -3.80% ... retailing giant reported a 14% increase in Q1 net income saying it earned $2.5 billion, or $0.58 per share. However, warned on Q2 saying results would likely be lower than expected as unseasonably cool weather and higher gasoline prices continue to hurt business.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 9:41:05 AM

QQQQ $36.06 +0.30% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 9:40:12 AM

eBay (EBAY) $33.53 +0.39% ... strong move at the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 9:37:52 AM

The Fed's open market desk has 19B in various repos expiring today, 8B of which is 14-day money. That repo has been replaced with a 9B 14-day repo, leaving 10B to deal with at the 10AM announcement.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 9:38:07 AM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.18 +1.77% ... $9.01 x $9.18

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 9:35:18 AM

No weakness evident in the USD Index Link with gold -2.40 at 425.60, off a low of 423.50, and silver -.089 at 7.008. The miners are negative again today, HUI -.49% at 179.06 and XAU -.37% at 83.05. Nymex crude closed -.80 at 49.65.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 9:30:59 AM

Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) $3.11 ... higher at $3.66 after company reports Q1 results. Revenues surged by 635% to over $1 million compared to $139,749 in same period last year. Q1 net loss was $2.2 million, or $-0.04 per share compared to a net loss of $1.7 million, or $-0.04 per common share.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 9:28:56 AM

QQQQ is up .05 at 36, with the 30 and 60 min channel tops 5 cents above. The 30 min cycle looks due to top out this morning, and a break below 35.90 would generate the first channel downticks. For the 60 min cycle, there remains little direction yet, and I wouldn't be inclined to trust any downside above 36.65. However, with the 30 min cycle running out of racetrack, upside should be growing difficult from here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2005 9:25:44 AM

Ameritrade (AMTD) $13.76 ... lower at $13.05 and atop this morning's most active after company said it is not for sale. On Monday, shares gapped higher from $11.50 on rumors that E*trade (ET) $12.38 might be set to buy its rival. ET also lower at $12.05 in pre-market trade.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 8:32:41 AM

Here are the headlines:











Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 8:31:53 AM

Bonds have plunged, TNX now up 3.9 bps at 4.241%, with QQQQ up 3 cents to 35.98 and ES and NQ going green.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 8:31:08 AM

Retail Sales ex-auto +1.1% vs. +0.5% exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 8:30:52 AM

Retail Sales +1.4% vs. + 0.7% exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 8:30:33 AM

Initial Claims 340K vs 325K exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 8:22:51 AM

Equities remain negative but have recovered part of their earlier losses ahead of the 8:30 data. QQQQ is currently down 2 cents at 35.93. Bonds have opened in negative territory, with TNX up 1.7 bps at 4.219%, printing at the upper end of yesterday's range.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 7:35:50 AM

WMT earned $2.46 billion or 58 cents, up from $2.17 billion or 50 cents this quarter last year. Excluding items, earnings were 55 cents- missed by a penny. The stock is down 4.32% at 46.50 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 7:21:07 AM








Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 7:22:19 AM

Equities have flipped negative with WMT (-3.6% at 46.85) warning and guiding lower. Details to follow.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/12/2005 6:44:38 AM

Equities are flat to higher, ES trading 1172.5, NQ 1461, YM 10305 and QQQQ -.01 at 35.94. Gold is down 1.30 to 426.70, silver -.03 to 7.067, ten year notes -1/16 at 111 7/16, and crude oil is -.55 to 49.90.

Today's 8:30 data is Retail Sales for April, est. .7%, Retail Sales ex-auto est. .5%, and Initial claims, est. 325K.

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