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OI Technical Staff : 5/13/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 8:31:13 PM

Last three week's Pivot Matrix at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 8:24:44 PM

Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 8:16:51 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 8:13:57 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 7:53:54 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Weekly Trade Blotter of CLOSED trades at this Link For the most part, we started the week out pretty good (except for the GOOG) and would have been better had I closed the QQQQ bear out from 5/06 all together on 05/11. Maybe I should have seen today's QQQQ stop coming with the bullish wins from YHOO and EBAY, but to be honest, I didn't think DELL would have had the impact that it did today. The MARKET thought otherwise and while I felt risk in the QQQQ was to MONTHLY R1, it traded there, and my stop of $36.30 was hit. I don't "regret" any of the trades in the blotter (well, maybe that last 1/2 short in the QQQQ on 5/11, but after seeing MONTHLY Pivot traded, I thought WEEKLY Pivot would have to be re-tested on INDU/SPX/OEX weakness, but never was), they were solid ideas from where I sit. There will be those that agree, and disagree. Certainly, a losing trade is never a good one. Now... we've seen periods in the past where we get this oil/water trade between the (INDU, SPX, OEX) and the (NDX/QQQ) where one will rise while the other falls. This is the "tougher market" to then try and trade from an index trader's point of view. Why? When things work/move in unison, its a bit easier for market participants and even computers to manage. When they don't and participants get on the wrong side of the trade (I wasn't the only one short the QQQQ thinking INDU/SPX/OEX weakness would provide a drag and keep my stop safe) things can get crazy and "less predictable." Friday's expiration provides further twist. YOU and I know where things settled relative to their May "Max Pain Theory" levels. Does the market now look to buy this week's weakness and sell its strength into Friday and bring things back together? Does the market sell weakness and strength? Does the market buy everything? I say I was surprised by DELL's strength today, up 7.42%! The 200-day SMA and nearly 1/2 month's overhead supply didn't seem to matter. I REALLY thought the same would be true for today's day trade long in LTXX. BIG short position, gapping higher from its 52-week lows. Usually the shorts will say.... "heck, I've made my money, but it to $5.00 until I'm covered." If YOUR'RE thinking what I'm thinking, then perhaps it was the MONTHLY R1 for the SOX.X that capped LTXX's limits. It was wierd how LTXX just got stuck around that $4.61 level wasn't it? Today's earnings for LTXX not as "good" as DELL's? Perhaps, but I know there were some that thought DELL's earnings were "ho hum." When you're short, sometimes it doesn't matter.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 7:08:34 PM

You might be right Jane (01:36:53) : I've got the iShares GS $ Invest (AMEX:LQD) $109.86 +0.55% putting in a very bullish session. Still though, its up just 0.25% since March 31 while the IEF +2.5%, TLT +3.88% and PHF +2.26%. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 3:56:41 PM

The OEX still can't hold that Keltner line currently at 550.12. Not yet.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 3:56:30 PM

I would not look to hold either of today's day trades over the weekend. I've had connection/software problems toward the close, but want to make sure any trader currently still trading ELN or LTXX to be flat at the close

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 3:53:16 PM

Thought I'd give a quick daily Keltner outlook on the OEX before the close. Right now, resistance still looks far stronger that support, but the OEX did bounce from one level of daily Keltner support. Until the OEX manages daily closes above a Keltner line currently at 554.69, it remains vulnerable to a downturn to 545.77, and maybe even lower to 541.10. Soon after pushing above 554.69, however, the OEX would soon hit even stronger Keltner resistance, so the pressure may keep the OEX from bouncing too far even if a bounce gets underway. Right now, it's difficult to assess whether Monday will see tests of that 546-ish support or the 555-ish resistance, as either looks possible.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 3:48:49 PM

QQQQ failed below the 72 SMA at 36.22, pulling back now but on declining volume. The 30 min cycle downphase continues, barely out of the bullpen with plenty of room to run, while the 60 min cycle is sliding sideways above the midpoint of its range, looking like it wants to rollover but currently trendless. The daily cycle has yet to turn, holding in overbought territory and still pointing north. Upside should be limited, confirmed by today's upside doji shadow on high volume (126.2M shares so far), but bears need some selling. I expect daily cycle sell signals to begin on a move below 35.60. Intraday chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 3:47:28 PM

The OEX tries to balance on new Keltner support. If it can, next resistance is from 551.79-552.49.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 3:34:33 PM

The OEX produces a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 550.12, and now sets a potential upside target of 551.92-552.62. In a few minutes, MOC orders will hit, though, and they could change the outlook. Those in bearish positions have seen big profits this week and soon need to be making a decision as to whether they'll hold over the weekend. Consider this carefully, especially if you're in a May position.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 3:29:49 PM

Updated daily chart of the USD Index at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 3:28:53 PM

US Dollar Index at this Link marching steadily higher. June gold is down 1.60, off a lower low of 418.70 and lower high of 422.90. HUI is down 2.19% at 169.05, XAU flat at 79.33.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 3:42:01 PM

At 2:38, I suggested that OEX bears lighten positions if they hadn't already done so and lower stops on the rest of the position. The OEX did dip further after I made that post, but now attempts a bounce. Resistance might still catch the OEX at some point, but you've had an opportunity now to make an exit plan. Keep that plan in mind.

As I type, the OEX struggles with the Keltner line currently at 550.00, and the OEX needs to close a 15-minute period above that line before it erases vulnerability to more downside. However, take that "erasure" with a grain of salt.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 3:24:12 PM

Semiholdrs (SMH) $32.80 +2.3% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 3:22:25 PM

Dell (DELL) $39.36 +7.5% ... about $2 stronger than I though it might be last night.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 3:22:24 PM

QQQQ is back to 36.20 now, 2 cents below the declining 72 period SMA with the 30 min channel downphase hanging in the balance. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 3:20:59 PM

SPX 1,153.94, DIA $101.48, QQQQ $36.21

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 3:20:38 PM

Buy Program Premium here we go

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 3:20:01 PM

SPX and OEX still test Keltner resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 3:18:17 PM

INDU 10,111 -0.76% ... will come back to test that WEEKLY S2/DAILY S2. Remember what the QQQQ did late Wednesday after trading MONTHLY Pivot, then coming back above WEEKLY Pivot, that's the intra-day test after trading lower, coming back above.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 3:17:37 PM

On the OEX, resistance softens above the 549.33-549.82 level, but there's still that level to get through on 15-minute closes, and the OEX still hasn't been able to do that.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 3:15:47 PM

The SPX has created a morning-star pattern on the 15-minute chart, but as it does, it's heading right into 1153.45 Keltner resistance. The SPX needs to complete 15-minute closes above that Keltner line before it erases vulnerability to a retest of 1149-1150.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 3:14:01 PM

LTXX $4.60 +16.45 ... if still long, be alert to late session move higher, but ready to sell back near $4.70.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 3:12:11 PM

SOX tests the Keltner line that is next Keltner that line at 407.04. The SOX needs to get above that line and close 15-minute periods above it to erase the 403.79 downside target. There's more resistance waiting, though,at 408.37-409.24, with that resistance looking relatively strong.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 3:11:23 PM

Semi HOLDRS (SMH) $32.76 +2.24% ... careful day trade shorts if you stepped in at afternoon lows.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 3:09:15 PM

Walgreen (WAG) $43.99 -0.15% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 3:08:57 PM

Nasdaq advancing volume leads 2.14:1 over declining volume, NYSE declining 3.06:1 over advancing volume. QQQQ is bouncing back to light resistance at 36.10, followed by the strong 36.20 line. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 3:08:39 PM

Rite Aid (RAD) $4.33 +12.72% ... surges as Icahn ups stake.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 3:07:01 PM

The OEX still attempts to steady. Keltner resistance is at 549.56-549.83, with 15-minute closes above that level needed to temporarily erase the potential for the OEX to keep testing support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 3:03:04 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 2:59:43 PM

I don't follow the Canadian news, but the CAD is getting smoked today, down 1.13% to .7909, a session low and multimonth low. The political fallout from the Gomery inquiry into the alleged malfeasance of the Liberal party is no doubt growing, as is the uncertainty surrounding the next party to occupy the political vaccuum it promises to create. Add to that the resurgence of separatist sentiment in Quebec, and there's a potentially poisonous mix for the CAD.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 2:58:59 PM

SMH $32.66 +1.93% ... 2-minutes unitl "the most important hour of the trading day."

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 2:58:13 PM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,100 -0.88% ... trying to hold together.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 2:57:04 PM

SMH $32.64 +1.87% ... moment of truth intraday. If the chips can get back above $32.66-$32.76, then good chance for further strength to the close. If afternoon's lows taken out again, watch out to the close for the downside.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 2:55:28 PM

Swan dive for the 30 min cycle channel with QQQQ now breaking the 60 min channel. The short cycle indicators are reaching oversold territory but are not maxxed out. QQQQ is still up .15 for the day, and the speed of the decline is such that some kind of corrective bounce should be expected, barring only the strongest of trending moves. If ES and YM are leading the way, that'll be more likely than usual. Nonetheless, the it's bearish below the 72 SMA at 36.27. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 2:52:15 PM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,086 -1% ... Just below WEEKLY S2 and DAILY S2 correlation. It's Friday the 13th.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 2:47:40 PM

Ten year notes have launched higher, past the previous session highs with TNX making a new low for the move, currently down 7.2 bps to 4.112%. Daily chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 2:45:25 PM

Big bounce on the BIX from Keltner and psychological support at 350, but the BIX has to oduce some 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 553.29 before that bounce looks sustainable, even over the very short term.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 2:43:02 PM

The SOX continues to look vulnerable to a Keltner line currently at 403.58, with that vulnerability remaining as long as the SOX is closing 15-minute periods beneath a Keltner line currently at 407.64.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 2:38:58 PM

Nasdaq's volume breadth has become a little less positive here, now just 1.85 advancing shares for each declining on the Teflon Market. PcQuote reports the TRINQ at .23, DTN at .35, both reflecting strong volume breadth even as price plunges through the 30 and 60 min channel supports. These keltner breaks should set up support here- only in the strongest trending move will price not snap back within the channel: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 2:38:36 PM

Bears, you've got a lot of profit on your plates now, and the OEX is hitting 15-minute and daily Keltner downside targets. The OEX can just continue down the rest of the day, but danger may be rising that a bounce could ensue at any time, too. If you haven't already taken partial profit, you might consider doing so now and lowering your stops on the rest. I still consider bounces countertrend moves and still would not consider a long position myself, even if a bounce got started.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 2:37:21 PM

Elan (ELN) $7.26 -6.8% ... If short, and I'm not anymore (got stopped) would lower stop to 7.40.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 2:31:10 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,151.53, DIA $101.36, QQQQ $36.07

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 2:29:07 PM

The SOX finds support on the 200-sma, and now rises to retest Keltner resistance that was formerly not-such-good support, as it turned out. That resistance is from 408.02-409.80. Bulls want to see that resistance broken and a new breakout signal created; bears want the opposite.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 2:26:50 PM

Crude oil is up a nickel here at 48.60 with 5 minutes left in the session. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 2:24:56 PM

Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 531.75 -1.75% ... QQQQ $36.11 +0.72% ... SOX.X 406.53 +2.39% ...

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 2:24:52 PM

New downside target for the OEX now at 547.73. This is according to the 15-minute chart. The daily downside target has now drifted down to 546.50. I'd certainly have profit-protecting plans in place near 546.50-548.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 2:22:36 PM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,131.26 -0.56% ... AA -4.31%, BA -2.04%, JPM -1.66%, XOM -1.44%, PG -1.44% ... GM +1.46%, INTC +1.04%, MSFT +0.80%, PFE +0.68%

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 2:19:59 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 2:19:57 PM

QQQQ is now testing declining 30 min channel support at 36.10, but that channel has much farther to drop so long as price holds below the 72 SMA at 36.29. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 2:18:12 PM

Just an amazing divergence between the Nasdaq and its peers. QQQQ is ticking reluctantly below 36.20, back into yesterday's range on mild volume, while ES and YM bang out session lows. XAU has joined HUI to the downside, i1.48% to 79.14 now with HUI down 2.16%. I would expect the strength in the USD Index to be taking equities down with commodities and the miners, the binary dollar trade running in reverse, but the COMPX and QQQQ remain impervious for now.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 2:11:53 PM

The OEX attempts to steady above 550, above the Keltner line that will signal a breakdown, and at yesterday's low. It verges on creating a new breakdown signal with a 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 550.70, but that signal hasn't been created yet. If it is, the tentative downside target is 548.10, but I'm not sure how strongly I believe in that target. The daily Keltner chart has already set an even lower Keltner target, however, as I mentioned in this morning's first OEX related post.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 2:08:41 PM

LTX Corp. (LTXX) $4.61 +16.70% ... I've got "weak hands" after QQQQ intra-day observation, Dow hitting new lows.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 2:07:40 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) $39.04 ... h/o/d

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 2:03:28 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 2:04:02 PM

For traders who might have entered a bearish OEX position today on the rollover, consider lightening your position by half and setting the rest at breakeven. I'm not in a bearish OEX position today (have some SPX condors and closed out the sold position on a SOX bull put spread, but no OEX positions), that's what I'd be doing here with the OEX testing yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 1:56:54 PM

Bullish day trade exit alert for LTX Corp. (LTXX) $4.61 bid. Dow makes new session lows.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 1:56:46 PM

And the OEX does now hit that Keltner line that had formerly been at 551 and now is at 550.83. The OEX is still close enough to that line to be considered as still testing the Keltner support, and those hoping that losses will be stemmed will want to see the OEX cloes above that line this 15-minute period.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 1:54:59 PM

DELL ... just noticing WEEKLY R2 here at $39.00. This a very good test for any further strength.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 1:52:56 PM

QQQQ $36.28 +1.19% ... back to test WEEKLY R1 from underneath after dip to "keltner support" of $36.19. Can the QQQQ get back to session high? DELL may be the intra-day key.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 1:51:37 PM

Dell (DELL) $38.90 ....

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 1:51:01 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) $39.00 ... challenges high of day.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 1:50:56 PM

The Nasdaq TRINQ remains buried at .32, 2.55 advancing shares for each declining. The TRIN is up to 1.07, with 1.82 declining shares for each advancing. The Tale of Two Markets continues, but QQQQ just lost the 72 SMA for the first time since thie runup commenced this morning, now testing 36.20 support. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 1:47:06 PM

Uh-oh. SOX bulls won't be happy to see that the SOX's 15-minute Keltner support isn't as strong as it had appeared to be. The SOX's actions are allowing resistance to firm, too. On a Keltner basis, a drop to 403.11 now looks possible, but that may depend on the ongoing test of the 200-sma. The SOX really needs a strong bounce soon to break through the building resistance and erase that longer upper candle.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 1:45:05 PM

Crude oil is back to positive territory, +.125 at 48.675. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 1:39:09 PM

Here's the reason that I watch the 100/130-ema's across many time frames, on many securities, with this chart the SOX's daily one: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 1:36:53 PM

The SOX still tests the potential Keltner support. This support looks relatively firm, but if the SOX lingers here too longer, it will soften. Already, as I suggested might happen earlier, the overhead resistance begins to firm, with that resistance form 408.90-410.40.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2005 1:36:21 PM

This may be a little long but worth the read.

DAteline WSJ How fitting: on a Friday the 13th, the U.S. bond market operated on fear.

Specifically, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rocketed higher, sending its yield to the lowest level in more than two months, as investors fled the apparently sinking ship of corporate bonds, along with the leaky lifeboats of wonkier hedging investments such as derivatives, tranches and the like. Those boats have been awfully rickety of late, worsened by the recent downgrades of General Motors and Ford, with other bad news possibly still to come. "Recent price advances could be ascribed to investors accumulating an effective insurance policy in the event that there is further disruption in the corporate credit market," said John Lonski, chief economist and bond analyst at Moody's Investors Service.

That's one theory, anyway. Another is that investors are seeing signs of a slowdown in the global economy, along with a relentlessly tightening Federal Reserve, a suddenly not-dead-yet dollar and a recent bloodbath in oil and other commodities, and deciding that maybe inflation won't be such a big deal after all. "There's been a genuine decline in inflation expectations, quite apparent in" Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, an inflation hedging vehicle, said Anthony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak. He pointed out that 10-year TIPS are lately priced for a consumer price index growth rate of less than 2.5% a year, compared with its 3.1% rate in March.

In addition to those forces, sluggish import prices and a surprisingly strong drop in the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index probably added to the day's trend in bonds.

The problem is that, if long-term yields keep falling, the economy will get another injection of jet fuel to keep the housing market rocketing along. That might keep the Fed tightening more than it wants, which could lead to deeper economic pain in months to come. "Fed policy normalization could lead to a sharp tightening in financial conditions that would squeeze U.S. consumers and businesses alike," Morgan Stanley chief economist Stephen Roach wrote in a note today -- a note in which he called for the Fed to do just that anyway, to prevent an even more painful correction in the future.

Mr. Roach may yet get his wish. The current environment looks a lot like the late 1990s, said Messrs. Lonski and Crescenzi, when worries about crises in Asia, Russia and Long Term Capital Management sent interest rates plunging, boosting economic growth and eventually forcing the Fed to crack down. "What ended that surge was severe aggressive tightening of monetary policy," Mr. Lonski said.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 1:36:18 PM

QQQQ has stopped dead on the 72 SMA, with the short cycle oscillators running lower but not yet oversold. If bears can break 36.27, confirmed with a move below 36.20, a new 30 min cycle downphase will kick off. If they fail, then this corrective short cycle downphase will likely be followed by a strong upphasse to challenge the current highs. A break below 36.20 would set up these strong surge as a possible daily cycle terminal blowoff. But until they start selling, that cycle still points up. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 1:32:35 PM

As I suggested in my 1:04 post, the OEX did turn lower to test support, but it hasn't yet fallen all the way to 551.01 or 548.29 support. As long as it's still producing 15-minute closes below a Keltner line now at 552.88, it's vulnerable to 551 at least, however.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 1:29:17 PM

Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 536.03 -0.98% ... session low here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 1:26:26 PM

QQQQ $36.27 ... first real test of WEEKLY R1 after session high. Intra-day momentum bulls want a bid.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 1:26:23 PM

The SOX has dropped down to test that Keltner support that had looked strong enough to provide support on the first touch. We'll see now if it is, with support down to 407.30 or so. Doesn't guarantee a higher high even if it does bounce.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 1:23:59 PM

Ten year treasuries rising again, picking up steam with TNX back down to a 5.2 bp loss at 4.132%. The 4.14%-4.16% zone should now act as resistance. Crude oil is up to a .05 loss at 48.50 with QQQQ retesting 36.30 support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 1:23:41 PM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $5.34 +1.58% ... does tick to a session high. I've got some intra-day alerts (up and down) from intra-day ranges set, to try and get a feel for further strenght/weakness after QQQQ does trade MONTHLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 1:22:00 PM

LTX Corp. (LTXX) $4.60 +16.45 ... a semiconductor-related stock and after a post profile high of $4.76, trades sideways from $4.57-$4.65. Still looking for a push to the close.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 1:19:51 PM

Elan (ELN) $7.49 -3.85% ... just below today's bearish day trade stop.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 1:16:43 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 1:15:49 PM

The SOX has not yet erased the breakout signal on its 15-minute Keltner chart. It's drifting toward toward Keltner support at 409.11 and then, firmer, at 406.90-407.82. So far, that lower support looks firm enough to support the SOX on the first test, but doesn't guarantee that bulls would then see a higher high. Resistance might build as the SOX drifts lower.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 1:13:46 PM

QQQQ bouncing along above 36.30 without ticking below it, with volume drying up here: Link . The 72 SMA is up to 36.25, and the 30 min cycle channel is already flattening, but bears are going to have to do better than this to kick off the 30 min cycle downphase. Breadthwise, the Nasdaq stands 3.41:1 in favor of advancing volume.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 1:11:15 PM

SOX drifting back to retest its 200-sma and 100-ema, just above the 100-ema now, with that average at 409.08.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 1:06:43 PM

01:00 Watch at this Link ... session high for the QQQQ has been $36.47.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 1:04:20 PM

Keltner resistance is trying to firm now between 553.22-554.35 on the OEX's 15-minute chart. Support at 552.31 and 551.12 and then way down at 548.35. This is beginning to suggest that the OEX might roll down to retest one of those support levels, but perhaps not until a test of resistance first. Keltner lines still in flux, but that's what's showing up now.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 1:00:42 PM

Historical 2004 MONTHLY Piv matrix update ... quick update for those following my prior historical MONTHLY pivot level pattern of trade. Today's action would now match that found in April of last year. Matrix at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 1:00:25 PM

Potential H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart, neckline now at about 552.75, but descending.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 12:59:21 PM

The OEX is not maintaining its upside breakout signals, either according to the five-minute 21/100/130-ema's or the fifteen-minute Keltner line currently at 553.40, but it's coming back up to retest the five-minute 21-ema and that Keltner line. If there's a quick bounce back above those levels, there's a chance that this was just an overrun of support, but if not, that still-not-as-firm-as-resistance support may be next to be tested on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart. Support is at 552.16 and 551.05.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 12:55:12 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 12:55:29 PM

A few minutes ago, the OEX gapped back below the five-minute 21-ema. That average is now at 553.36, and the OEX comes back to retest it, but from below.

Tab Gilles : 5/13/2005 12:49:04 PM

Interesting chart of $REIT, $NDX and XLE. Link Could now be the time to sell real estate and oil and get back into tech and bios? Which are over-or-undervalued?

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 12:44:20 PM

Back. I mentioned in my 12:07 post that Keltner resistance still looked stronger than support, and this downturn is what resulted. Bulls would like to see the OEX bounce back above a keltner line currently at 553.48 before the close of this 15-minute period.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 12:40:34 PM

I'm very surprised that we haven't see a single buy/sell program premium so far today.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 12:36:36 PM

QQQQ breaks trendline support here, coming in for a test of 36.30: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 12:27:41 PM

Uhaul (UHAL) $48.40 +7.6% ... new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 12:25:30 PM

MONTHLY R1 alert for the QQQQ $36.44 +1.64% ... did trade $36.47. Much above here and computers could really turn on to WEEKLY R2. A bear should be thinking ... "this shouldn't be happening.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 12:25:08 PM

Ten year notes have dropped further, TNX now up to 4.149%, a 3.5 bp loss with the bottom of the daily candle thinning into a lower doji shadow. Updated daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 12:23:02 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 12:19:30 PM

Gold, silver and the miners have missed the party, June gold down 2.1 at 420.20, silver -.029 at 6.938, HUI -1.15% at 170.84 and XAU -.44% at 79.98. The CRB is down 2.27 at 293.75 with all components negative except for sugar, live cattle and FCOJ futures. The USD Index is strong, holding its gains. Bonds and equities are the key beneficiaries of its strength today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 12:18:18 PM

QQQQ session high has been $38.38 and just shy of MONTHLY R1 at this point. SOX.X 410.03 +3.26% ... session high 411.74 also just shy of MONTHLY R1

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 12:16:16 PM

Keltner-wise, the OEX is now sandwiched between support at 553.47 and resistance building from 554.24-555.50. Resistance still looks a little stronger.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 12:11:31 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 12:07:00 PM

The OEX did not maintain that gap above the five-minute 100/130-ema's. Forgot to note earlier that in addition to being a gap above those levels, the slight gap had moved the OEX above the 50% retracement of yesterday's range. That's not holding either, with the retracement at just over 554 and the OEX at 553.97. Obviously, the OEX hasn't retreated far yet. Needs to hold 553.37 on 15-minute closes to maintain upward momentum.

Keltner channels still haven't aligned themselves to show where strongest resistance might be and how strong it might be relative to support. Currently, resistance still looks a bit stronger than support, as would be in keeping with a countertrend move higher. Have to see what develops, however.

Tab Gilles : 5/13/2005 12:02:16 PM

Semi's ($SOX) Last time the SOX was in this type of pattern was back in February? Hmmm.... Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 12:01:44 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 12:00:48 PM

QQQQ bounced from the rising expanding wedge trendline at at 36.35, that level now acting as support. The short cycle oscillators are maxxed out, with the 30 min channel top rising to 36.50. It will take a short cycle trending move to reach that level, but volume is heavy today at 63.3M shares and that could provide the necessary gas in the tank to do it. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 11:59:40 AM

On the five-minute chart, the OEX just gapped above the five-minute 100/130-ema's, now at 553.90 and 554.21. Bulls want to see the OEX maintain that breakout. The 200-sma and mid-channel Keltner resistance are next resistance, with the mid-channel lines converging at 554.84-555.55, also near the 61.8% retracement of the slide off yesterday's high, with that number just under 555.

Keltner support still isn't as strong as bulls would like to see it be on the 15-minute chart. There's support at 553.22, but then nothing until the 550.95-551.60 region.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 11:48:20 AM

And the SOX continues to charge higher after creating a new breakout signal on its 15-minute Keltner chart. Normally this is a time to follow prices higher with your stops in bullish positions since risk is shifting onto the shoulders of those in bullish positions, but not always a good time to consider switching sides to a bearish position. Sometimes it is, but Keltners were invented to identify breakouts, periods when momentum was strong. This has been one for the SOX today, but continue to follow the prices higher with your stops. Bulls now want to see support on any pullbacks at 407.10 or so (on 15-minute closes) or at least at 405-405.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 11:46:18 AM

Advancing volume continues to pummel declining volume on the Nasdaq, 3.62:1 here with the TRINQ at .3, an extreme reading. Declining volume leads advancing on the NYSE 1.05:1, TRIN holding at .98.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 11:37:37 AM

Ten year treasuries are pulling back off the highs, with TNX up to a 4.9 bp loss at 4.135%. That selling has been benefiting QQQQ since the break above 36.20. QQQQ is holding right on the highs as ten year notes continue to edge lower here. Crude oil is down to a new low at 47.875 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 11:33:52 AM

The OEX tests Keltner resistance currently at 554.31-554.50. Just above 554 is the 50% retracement of the decline off yesterday's high, with that 50% point often serving as strong resistance, too. The rise today does not look bear-flag-ish, however, so the presumption would be that on any retreats now, the OEX would likely find support at the Keltner line at 553.08, also near the 38.2% retracement (553.11). I'm personally not making any presumptions about the upside, however, but just reporting on what the charts show. I still consider the bounce potentially countertrend, so just don't presume that upside targets will be hit on a possibly countertrend move.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 11:33:39 AM

LTX Corp. (LTXX) $4.69 +19% ... that 50,000 that just printed at $4.55 was an agency cross and should not come back below there.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 11:30:33 AM

Session highs across the board, QQQQ tagging 36.39: Link . The short cycle oscillators have reached overbought territory but have not yet maxxed out. 30 min channel resistance is up to 36.42.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 11:29:50 AM

Bullish day trade 1/2 long alert ... for LTX Corp. (LTXX) $4.61 +16.45% here, stop $4.49 and target $5.05

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 11:24:35 AM

The RLX coils at the top of today's range, suggesting that this might be a "p" accumulation pattern. That's significant for the OEX, if it is, as their shared components sometimes help drive the OEX one direction or the other, too. The BIX is lagging the RLX on a Keltner basis, at least, not having reached mid-channel resistance yet, nor even the resistance below that. Today, the OEX's Keltner outlook follows the BIX's most closely. The OEX is now between nearest Keltner support at 552.76, a line that the OEX needs to hold on 15-minute closes to erase vulnerability to more downside, and resistance at about 554.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 11:20:37 AM

Session low for Nymex crude just now at 47.95, bouncing to 48.15. Chart at this Link

Tab Gilles : 5/13/2005 11:18:50 AM

$USD Nine days ago I posted this chart of the $USD and highlighted a Cup & Handle formation with a possible breakout coming. Link

yesterday I posted this chart... Link

currently... Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 11:15:38 AM

DJ Home Construction (DJUSHB) 816.52 -0.17% ... correct quote

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 11:14:53 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 11:13:37 AM

For reference, the OEX's 200-sma is at 555.54 and 200-ema is at 556.89.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 11:12:18 AM

The RLX, one of those indicator indices that I often watch, rose up to test significant Keltner mid-channel resistance about 30 minutes ago. It's now retreating from that resistance, and it's a test of the 407.50 Keltner support (on 15-minute closes) that may tell us something about whether the RLX is goin to continue testing that resistance, perhaps until it softens the resistance, or whether this was just a blip, soon to be reversed.

Tab Gilles : 5/13/2005 11:10:00 AM

Taking a look at a few technical indicators I track on the weekly charts. Using the Summation and High/Low chart against their respective index.

First the $COMPQ/$NASI/$NAHL still in bull mode... Link Link Link

$SPX... Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 11:05:57 AM

The OEX still heads up toward the next Keltner resistance, currently at just above 554.32, but it needs to maintain 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 552.63 to maintain the positive outlook.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 11:05:22 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 11:04:56 AM

Big Keltner breakout on the SOX's 15-minute Keltner chart. Support now gathering near the 200-sma, and then at 404.30 or so.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 11:04:41 AM

No weakness for QQQQ, leading the upper 30 min channel higher in what is verging on an upside trending move. The TRINQ is down at .38, very strong pressure but not yet extreme. Price is testing the extension of yesterday's expanding wedge support from below. The 30 min cycle bias is to the upside so long as price holds above 36.10, with a break of 36.20 the first sign of trouble for bulls. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 11:03:22 AM

Yesterday, I mentioned that if the OEX was going to have any hope of completing the inverse H&S on its daily chart, that it needed to firm up between 550-552.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 11:02:16 AM

Bearish swing trade stop alert ... for the QQQQ $36.30

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 11:01:29 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 409.77 +3.20% ... sector winner and approaching MONTHLY R1 412.63.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 10:55:13 AM

There was big volume on the QQQQ surge past 36.20, with price taking its time testing the broken line. The toppiness in the daily cycle suggest that this is more of a blowoff than a breakout, but if so, the sooner it gets back below 36.10 the better. The short cycle oscillators are correcting their potential bearish divergence, but it's not there yet. It will take more time to determine whether this surge is going to get bought. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 10:50:28 AM

Q's may be next ... QQQQ $36.20 +1.0% ...

Tab Gilles : 5/13/2005 10:50:14 AM

Gold & Silver Index ($XAU) Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 10:51:03 AM

Bearish day trade stop alert ... for Elan (ELN) $7.57 ... #&*$! ... a week's worth of very hard work just gone poof.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 10:48:14 AM

The SOX has broken through the upper Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart, running up to hit the 200-sma. Watch for a potential pullback now, with bulls now most wanting to see a bounce from 405.60-406.03, but satisfied with a bounce from 402.78-403.55.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 10:46:50 AM

Nymex crude -.275 at 48.275 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 10:46:33 AM

Advancing volume beats declining on the Nasdaq 3:1, TRINQ .38, while declining leads advancing on the NYSE 1.4:1, TRIN .99.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 10:46:02 AM

SOX hitting its 200-sma as I type, at 406.87, with the SOX actually just a little above that.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 10:45:44 AM

Elan (ELN) update alert $7.43 -4.62% ... high probability that ELN doesn't trade my bearish day trade target of $6.74. Will look to close on weakness back toward $7.27.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 10:45:17 AM

And this OEX push above the five-minute 21-ema, if it holds, would certainly signal a change in the short-term trend, at least. Also, if the OEX can maintain a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 552.22, that also signals a short-term change in trend, and suggests a further push up to about 554.22-554.43.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 10:43:22 AM

New high for QQQQ here at 36.15, with 30 min channel resistance up to 36.20 and the short cycle chop resolving to the upside with a potential bearish divegence if price falls within the next few minutes. 72 SMA support is up to 36.02. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 10:41:46 AM

eBay (EBAY) $34.77 +2.84% ... nearing May's "Max Pain" theory level of $35.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 10:40:28 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 10:35:53 AM

The OEX pulls back from the five-minute 21-ema again. Still no change in trend on even a short-term basis. CCI hooked back below zero again, too, confirming the pullback. I'm still not so sure that the OEX is through challenging that 21-ema, though.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 10:34:22 AM

SOX approaching 405.72 Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. It can climb that rising resistance line, of course, or could even violate it, but the risk of at least a short-term pullback may be increasing. In case of a pullback, bulls want to see support at either the line currently at 403.04 or the one currently at 401.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 10:28:58 AM

Still no sign of weakness for ten year treasuries, ZN up to 111 31/32 off a high of 112 1/16, with TNX down 6.3 bps here to 4.121%. Updated TNX chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 10:28:11 AM

The OEX did create an evening-star pattern on its five-minute chart, but it's rising right back to retest that 21-ema, currently at 551.95. Not giving up yet, is it?

Tab Gilles : 5/13/2005 10:28:36 AM

DELLAs I posted last night 10:30 watch the technicals on DELL. Link Link

Cisco (CSCO) Looks overbought nearterm. Testing 200-ema. Link

Intel (INTC) Same on Intel. Link

Cigna (CI) Stop at $95 Link

Pfizer (PFE) Testing 200 ma's. Link

Murphy Oil (MUR) Not sure about that candle??? Link Link

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 10:27:08 AM

I show the OEX as testing a best-fit rising trendline off the April low this morning, with that trendline rising into the 550-ish level. Bulls do want to see a bounce off this trendline and not a break below it (that's sustained) because that sets up the possibility that, a bit too wide or not, it was a bear flag. A quick dip to 548-549, quickly reversed, wouldn't necessarily be a violation, particularly as this is a best-fit trendline with one candle shadow already piercing it. Without the bounce back above the trendline in the same day, though, the violation would look more serious.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 10:23:35 AM

QQQQ chops along above the 72 SMA Link with the 30 min channel top rising to 36.15, 60 min resistance to 36.10. The 30 min cycle downphase aborted well before reaching oversold territory, a bullish indication, but it's dubious within yesterday's choppy range. A break above 36.20 will change that, however, and the longer price holds above the 72 SMA at 36.00, the more likely it will become as the cycle channels rise.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 10:23:02 AM

The OEX currently challenges its five-minute 21-ema, an average that has been turning it back since Thursday afternoon. Last five-minute period, the OEX produced a doji at the top of the tall white candle from the previous five-minute period, and now it starts a decline during this period. Bulls do not want that decline to continue and do not want the CCI to loop over back below zero again, as that continues the trend that was in place all afternoon yesterday. It's not looking good so far, though, continuing lower as I type. So far, no change in trend, even on the five-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 10:20:03 AM

The SOX should hit upper Keltner resistance at about 405.50. Doesn't mean that it won't continue to climb, but the susceptibility to at least a short-term pullback may grow stronger at that point. If so, short-term bulls want to see it find support at a Keltner line currently at 542.69, although it will take a 15-minute close below a line currently at 400.41 to actually flatten its smallest Keltner channel.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 10:17:49 AM

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 10:16:31 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 10:15:00 AM

Volume breadth has weakened considerably, declining volume now outpacing advancing 1.94:1 on the NYSE, while advancing volume leads 2.93:1 on the Nasdaq. TRIN 1.07, TRINQ .37.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 10:14:30 AM

For now, the OEX has been finding resistance at the five-minute 21-ema, with CCI zero-line reversals back into negative levels accompanying those bounces back from the 21-ema. As I type, the OEX rises to retest the 21-ema at 551.96. The OEX needs to maintain values above that MA as a very first and tentative step in changing its short-term trend.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 10:12:34 AM

My thought for now is that further declines might be limited (watch the BIX to see if it really is finding support at potential Keltner support, however, and the SOX to see if it maintains gains and the TRAN to see if it's going to try to steady now that the declines are way overdone on a short-term basis), but that there might indeed be further declines. I see this as a time that bears ought to be guarding profits carefully, but possibly not a great time to be considering new long positions in OEX options, at least. Volatility indices still tend to drop quickly once a bounce begins, and, unless you have reasonable expectations of a big and quick gain, you can be on the right side of a trade and still work awfully hard to eke out even a minimal profit. If the OEX were to bounce, but slowly or in a choppy fashion, you might not make any profit at all. Since any bounce is into an area that's served as resistance and since Keltners don't yet give strong evidence as to where the OEX might be stopped, I just wouldn't personally be going long with OEX options.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 10:11:10 AM

VIX.X 16.42 +1.86% ... DAILY Pivot levels ... 13.42, 14.75, Piv= 14.59, 16.82, 17.56.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 10:10:37 AM

Session low Nymex crude here at 48.00, -.55.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 10:09:10 AM

The Fed had a 9B repo expiring today and has just added 10.25B via 3 and 4-day repos, for a net add of 1.25B for the day.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 10:06:05 AM

Sorry for not posting. Broadband problems again. I checked with others in the area the last time this happened, and confirmed that everyone was having difficulty, so this is a Comcast problem and not one with my system. No DSL is available in my area, so it's Comcast or dial-up.

I had tried to post that despite the attempt to strengthen support, the OEX remained vulnerable to a decline to a Keltner line that's now at 548.76, and would remain vulnerable until producing 15-minute closes above a line currently at 552.18.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 10:04:30 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 10:01:17 AM

Elan (ELN) $7.35 -5.64% ... day trader's chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 9:53:58 AM

QQQQ just broke south of the 72 SMA, session low of 35.94. 30 and 60 min channel support are currently line up at 35.87. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 9:53:22 AM

Bearish day trade short alert ... for Elan (ELN) $7.35 here, stop $7.57, target $6.74.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 9:47:43 AM

The OEX's Keltner support still attempts to strengthen. Resistance continues to soften. Resistance lines are individual, so that it's difficult to pinpoint the one line that might stop the OEX's advances. Currently, nearest resistance is at 552.75 and again at 554.04-554.85.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 9:48:01 AM

Michigan sentiment 85.3 vs. 88.3.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 9:49:37 AM

Elan (ELN) $7.22 -7.18% ... #4 most active. Investors still question whether Tysabri will come back to market.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 9:46:31 AM

QQQQ's beginning to show some lift to that strong breadth, reaching toward the 30 and 60 min channel resistance zone between 36.07-36.10. If it can hold up here for another few minutes, the 30 min channel top will begin to climb. However, 36.00-.20 remains confluence resistance in the daily cycle.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 9:46:16 AM

HMO Index (HMO.X) 1,389.43 -1.06% Link ... sector loser early.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 9:42:46 AM

Fedex (FDX) $85.22 -0.14% Link ...

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 9:41:36 AM

The SOX has moved back above 400.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 9:41:20 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3455.94 +0.44% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 9:40:40 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 353.58 -0.45% ...

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 9:40:31 AM

The OEX's Keltner outlook continues to show tentative improvement as well as the tentative bullish divergence that I mentioned earlier. To me, this isn't enough evidence to consider a long position in OEX options, particularly as it's still looking vulnerable on both the 15-minute and daily Keltner charts to more declines and as any rise would be a rise toward the 555.60-563.30-ish long-term S/R zone. All it's going to take is one whoosh lower to change that Keltner outlook and erase the tentative bullish divergence. It could be a sign that those in bearish positions need to be particularly attentive.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 9:39:22 AM

Advancing volume beats declining volume 1.48:1 on the NYSE and 4.72:1 on the Nasdaq, with the TRIN .88 and the TRINQ .47.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 9:39:21 AM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $5.32 +1.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 9:38:31 AM

Cendant (CD) $20.44 -0.04% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 9:38:09 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.43 +1.21% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 9:37:52 AM

Trouble with my data feed this AM, but the 3 min QQQQ chart seems to be working. Updated intraday chart at this Link with price holding the 72 SMA as support. The 30 min channel remains stalled.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 9:37:44 AM

SAP Aktiengesell (SAP) $40.34 +0.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 9:37:17 AM

General Motors (GM) $30.45 -0.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 9:36:47 AM

QQQQ $36.00 +0.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 9:36:25 AM

Google (GOOG) 228.37 -0.14% ...

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 9:35:17 AM

The OEX attempted an early move up toward the 552.95 first Keltner resistance on its 15-minute chart, but then fell back slightly. Keltner support, sloping strongly downward at yesterday's close, attempts to flatten, but hasn't yet quite done so. If it does, it will provide a little more support. So far, the OEX remains vulnerable to a decline, with some signs that support is trying to strengthen.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 9:33:24 AM

GMA is doing a retrospective on 1975, and just announced that the Dow had closed the previous day at 847.47, this day in 1975.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 9:27:10 AM

Ten year notes are flying, breaking yesterday's highs with TNX down below 4.14% support, currently -4.9 bps at 4.135% and generating a preliminary daily cycle sell signal: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 9:25:29 AM

Nvidia (NVDA) $22.79 ... #3 most active at $25.01 after stronger-than expected quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 9:29:38 AM

Dell Computer (DELL) $36.61 Link ... #2 most active at $37.83, which would be a gap higher open above its trending lower 50-day SMA ($37.64). A modestly rising 200-day SMA just above at $38.04. Bar chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2005 9:22:00 AM

Taser Intl. (TASR) $11.20 ... higher at $12.47 and atop this morning's pre-market most active list. The company said an independent study found that its stun guns had little effect on the heart functions of humans.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 9:17:01 AM

QQQQ is near the top of a short cycle upphase within a stalling 30 min cycle downphase, all of which is occurring within on an ongoing 60 min cycle downphase. If yesterday's low fails, the daily cycle, which appears to have topped out, should generate the first preliminary sell signals. Upside resistance is at yesterday's 36.20 high. A move below the 7200 tick SMA support at 35.80 will restore the stalling 30 min cycle downphase.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 8:55:21 AM

Thursday repeated Wednesday's range for the OEX, but in the opposite direction, rising early in the day and then dropping into the close. All the comments I made before yesterday's opening about the rise off the April low meeting some but not all the characteristics of a bear-flag rise, the presence of a potential inverse H&S on the daily chart, and the resistance offered by the daily 100/130-ema's remain true. The rise's back-and-forth pattern looks a bit wide for the typical bear flag, yet is a well-defined rising regression channel after a steep drop, one that has not yet maintained values above a 50% retracement of the drop. If it is a bear flag, its support has not yet been broken, with that support at about 550 or slightly lower, depending on whether you include all candle shadows or lop one off to draw a best-fit ascending trendine.

I mentioned yesterday morning that the OEX was just under daily Keltner resistance, too, with that resistance looking stronger than the softening support. Thursday's action worsened the daily Keltner outlook for the OEX, with the OEX rolling down beneath that Keltner resistance and now looking vulnerable to 547.27. It will remain vulnerable to that drop until it can begin producing daily closes again above the Keltner line currently at 555.71.

So, we have to consider that potential drop toward 547.27 when we look at the OEX's Keltner outlook on a 15-minute chart. For me, that means deciding that until the daily Keltner outlook improves, I'll consider upside moves countertrend ones.

Thursday afternoon, the OEX slipped down along 15-minute Keltner support that it had violated more soundly on Wednesday. If the OEX continues that pattern of not violating the support as soundly as it did Wednesday, it's creating Keltner-style bullish divergence, even if prices continues lower for the time being. Right now, the OEX creates that potential Keltner-style bullish divergence by not breaking through a Kelter line currently at 552.01 as soundly, even if it obviously did violate that line at the close. Because the Keltner lines still course downward at such a strong angle, the OEX could continue to slide along the lines toward 549.09, but if the OEX should instead try to bounce, the 15-minute chart suggests that it needs to maintain values above a Keltner line currently at 553.11 before it lessens that near-term vulnerability to a drop to 549.00. Oddly enough, resistance softened yesterday as the OEX was dropping, but there's still slightly more resistance than support. That softening, if continued, may allow the OEX to rise, but it doesn't yet pinpoint where the rise might be stopped. That, added to the daily chart's suggestion that until the OEX closes over 555.71, it remains vulnerable to further declines, would corroborate the feeling that it might be difficult to gauge risk vs. reward on upside moves.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 8:38:04 AM

Daily chart of the USD Index future at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 8:35:49 AM

Nymex crude is down to a 20 cent gain at 48.75, session low 48.25.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 8:35:16 AM

The USD Index is testing 86, no sign of weakness: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 8:34:10 AM

QQQQ is holding the 36 level, currently up .17 at 36.02, ES trading 1162.5 and ten year notes advancing, TNX down to a 2 bp loss at 4.164%. CAD and Euro futures are weak, CAD below .80 at .7961 here, euros -.64% at 1.2636.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 8:31:26 AM

Headlines:

U.S. APRIL EXPORT PRICES UP 0.6%

U.S. APRIL IMPORT PRICES RISE 0.8%

U.S. APRIL EXPORT PRICES EX-AG UP 0.5%

U.S. APRIL IMPORT PRICES EX-OIL UP 0.4%

U.S. APRIL IMPORTED OIL PRICE UP 3.1%

U.S. APRIL EXPORT PRICES UP 0.6%

U.S. IMPORT PRICES UP 8.1% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

U.S. APRIL EXPORT PRICES EX-AG UP 0.5%

U.S. APRIL IMPORTED OIL PRICE UP 3.1%

U.S. IMPORT PRICES UP 8.1% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

U.S. MARCH INVENTORIES-SALES RATIO 1.31 VS 1.32 FEB

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 8:29:36 AM

Ten year treasuries are in positive territory ahead of the 8:30 data, with TNX quoted -1.6 bps at 4.168%, below yesterday's range. Daily chart at this Link with today's print a few minutes old.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 8:00:05 AM

Session low for gold futures here, -3.60 at 418.70.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/13/2005 7:27:02 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1162, NQ 1464 and YM 10205 and QQQQ +.19 at 36.04. Gold is down 1.40 at 420.90, silver -.066 at 6.901, ten year notes -1/16 at 111 19/32 and crude oil +.40 at 48.95.

We await Export Prices ex-ag. and Import Prices ex-oil at 8:30, prior .4% and .4% respectively, as well as Business Inventories, est. .6%. At 9:45, we get Michigan Sentiment, est. 88.3.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2005 7:20:11 AM

Good morning. Despite an important economic number that surprised to the upside, the Nikkei closed in negative territory. Other Asian markets were mixed. European markets turn lower, but as this report was prepared, our futures hang onto modest gains. As of 6:30 EST, gold was down $1.00, and crude, up $0.53 to $49.07, and the dollar has made notable gains in overnight trading. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

With commodity prices declining, stocks such as Nippon Mining Holdings and Inpex, Japan's largest oil producer, declined in early trading Friday morning in Japan. Despite positive moves by some companies that will soon be added to the Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc.'s World Index, the Nikkei had opened in negative territory ahead of the afternoon release of the important machinery orders number for March. Expectations were for a drop in the machinery orders, but that number surprised by rising 1.9% month over month. For the quarter, orders rose 0.7% over the previous quarter, but forecasts had been for a 9.9% gain for the quarter. The next quarter's number is expected to decline 3.1%, and, after an immediate bounce on the positive surprise in March's number, the Nikkei then settled back into negative territory. The Nikkei closed lower by 28.83 points or 0.26%, to 11,049.11.

Individual stocks reacting to earnings or news included Tokyo Electron and Toshiba Corp. Tokyo Electron reported group sales that soared 20% over the quarter that ended in March. Microsoft and Toshiba agreed to use each other's patents in information systems and digital home appliances.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.79%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.21%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.44%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.73%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.33%.

European markets turn lower, hurt by the same declines in commodity-related issues that Japan was seeing, while airlines and carmakers gained. BP PLC, Shell Transport & Trading PLC, and Total SA all declined in early trading, as did BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, and German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp. ThyssenKrupp reported sales increasing 12% against expectations of a 6.6% rise.

Some April inflation data is beginning to be seen, with France's surprising to the downside by dropping to 2% on a EU-harmonized basis and 1.8% on a national basis. Ex-energy, CPI dropped to 1.2% year over year. Also in France, the INSEE manufacturing investment survey projected that 2005's investment is now expected to rise 3.0%, by a greater amount than previously projected, but that number still falls far short of last year's 8% increase. Another number showed non-farm payroll's growing 0.1% for the first quarter.

Moves in the insurance sector involved a confirmation by South African insurer Old Mutual that it was in deal talks with Swedish insurer Skandia Forsakring, with the Swedish company's stock surging 20% and Old Mutual's falling. Germany's Allianz was declining after its earnings report and reiteration of 2005 targets.

Other reporting companies included French drugmaker Sanofi-Aventis. The company's net profit and sales appeared to be slightly above forecasts, and a company spokesperson expressed even more confidence in 2005's projections, according to one article, but shares still eased. In broker action, Merrill Lynch upgraded Rolls Royce Group, contributing to a rise in share prices this morning.

As of 7:09 EST, the FTSE 100 has dropped 30.90 points or 0.63%, to 4,862.30. The CAC 40 has dropped 21.78 points or 0.54%, to 3,993.87. The DAX had declined 16.31 points or 0.38%, to 4,250.74.

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