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OI Technical Staff : 5/16/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 5:55:07 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 5:32:23 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... June Crude Oil futures (cl05m) settled down 6 cents at $48.61 on Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 5:01:27 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 4:20:05 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... No trade profiles (open/close) were made today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 4:57:19 PM

Telephone Data Systems (TDS) $38.19 ... still halted ... news pending. US Cellular (AMEX:USM) $47.15 +3.06% also halted. Some chatter of pending merger announcement between the two.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 4:13:07 PM

$100,000 Reward being offered by forensics investigator Bill McDonald for the return of a four-inch barbed tooth thought to be that of Loch Ness. The tooth was discovered by two American college students on Spring Break back in March, but was confiscated by local water bailiff and is now believed to be in possession of the Scottish Highland authorities.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 4:10:10 PM

Bema Gold (BGO) $1.73 -9.42% ... reports Q1 loss of $0.04 per share. Q1 revenues rose to $21.5 million from $19.7 million same period last year.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 4:08:02 PM

Procter & Gamble (PG) $55.14 ... Warren Buffett reports holding 630,000 PG shares.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 4:05:57 PM

Agilent (A) $21.56 -1.95% ... Q2 $+0.20 per share.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 4:04:03 PM

3M (MMM) $76.46 +1.07% ... Moody's affirms "stable" outlook.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 3:57:14 PM

Retail Gasoline Prices ... Dow Jones - Retail gasoline prices in the U.S. fell 2.3 cents to an average of $2.163 per gallon in the latest week.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/16/2005 3:55:33 PM

Exit the DELL August 40 calls now at 1.35. We bought at 1.30 a month ago, but we are topping out here and best to step aside for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/16/2005 3:56:39 PM

For option side, buying QQQQ June 37 puts at .95. See my COMP chart on future's side posted earlier (3:37:15)

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 3:49:57 PM

Imperial Oil (AMEX:IMO) $65.04 -1.66% ... company saying it has reduced its purchase price fro benchmark 40-degree gravity light crude oil at Edmonton by C$21 a cubic meter to C$389 a cubic meter, effective immediately. In barrel terms, the company is now offering C$61.85 a barrel, down from C$65.19. The lower purchase price indicates an export price delivered to Chicago of approximately $49.96/barrel after consideration for transport and import charges and foreign exchange rates.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 3:41:23 PM

I'm going to have to step away the last few minutes of the day, and I'm not sure I'll be back by the close. What I'm seeing is the OEX heading up into rather significant resistance, but resistance that it's crossed from time to time as it's been climbing off the April low. A 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 555.62 would set an upside target of 560.87, but I'm always a little skeptical of these targets if they're set just before the close or just after the open, especially as the OEX would then be heading up into a long-term zone in which it tends to chop around.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 3:35:36 PM

On any pullback, those hoping for more gains from the OEX want to see it find support on the Keltner line currently at 553.94.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 3:34:02 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle looks maxxed out, as is possibly the daily cycle as well, with the 60 min pointed up and not yet in overbought territory. Today's light volume makes the move suspect as well, but there's nothing bearish about today's mostly steady rise. 1st sign of trouble for bulls will be a break of 36.40, with 72 SMA support 3 cents below it. Below that line, the 30 min cycle should generate it's first downticks.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 3:40:06 PM

Telephone Data Sys. (TDS) $38.19 ... halted

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 3:28:12 PM

Remember that as the OEX moves toward 555.61, it's reaching toward the 200-sma at 555.60 and the long-term 555.60-563.30-ish S/R zone that I've pointed out many times.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 3:21:13 PM

Session high for QQQQ on a surge in volume here. The 30 min channel is drifting higher to 36.52 here, and should continue to do so as long as price holds above 36.37, the current level of the 72 period SMA: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 3:18:50 PM

The OEX did produce a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 553.96, setting up a potential upside target of 555.51. A close below the Keltner line currently at 553.66 would weaken that outlook and a close below 552.76 would change it.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 3:17:34 PM

June crude oil has reopened for the evening session and is trading up .15 at 48.75 here.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 3:12:10 PM

The OEX attempts a breakout now above the Keltner resistance currently at 553.96. If it can maintain that breakout into the end of this 15-minute period, it's more likely to continue its push up toward 555.53.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 3:10:51 PM

Session highs across the board, QQQQ reaching for the combined channel tops at 36.50 here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 3:09:26 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 3:07:12 PM

All day today, the OEX has been finding support on 15-minute closes on a Keltner line currently at 553.41.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 3:03:39 PM

Ten year treasuries gave back their gains, closing just inside negative territory with TNX up 0.4 bps at 4.125%. Daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 3:02:13 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 3:01:43 PM

The TRAN's 15-minute candles still drive in a straight line, going sideways. It's not pointing the way either direction.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 2:57:48 PM

Volume breadth is slightly weaker for the Nasdaq and slightly stronger for the NYSE, positive for both with advancing shares beating declining 1.98:1 on the NYSE, 1.68:1 on the Nasdaq. 30 and 60 min channel resistance line up at 36.50 QQQQ.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 2:57:12 PM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) 1,162.50 +0.73% ... some "firming" in energy late and strong showing from financials and healthcare have broader index reversing all of Friday's losses.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 2:54:44 PM

Dell (DELL) $39.43 +0.24% ... Friday's QQQQ catalyst just edged above Friday's high ($39.44)

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 2:53:36 PM

QQQQ $36.42 ... best levels of session and set up another test of MONTHLY R1.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 2:39:20 PM

The OEX does look as if it's going to attempt to move up toward the next Keltner resistance, currently at 555.40, if it can only manage 15-minute closes above the Keltner level now at 554.29. There's massive resistance at 555.40 and just above, from several sources, however, so the Keltner outlook could change if the OEX stocks get sold as the OEX makes the attempt. For now, support is trying to firm, but the OEX has to get past that next Keltner resistance, first before it can even make the attempt. On closes below the line currently at 552.41, the outlook changes to a more negative one.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 2:36:25 PM

June crude oil recovered its losses to finish -.075 at 48.60 for the session, off a low of 47.575.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 2:29:53 PM

The TRAN is still in its consolidation pattern, perhaps moving into an equilibrium position with regard to the Keltner channels, prior to a breakout one direction or the other. If that happens, we could see that consolidation persist for a while, but I'm watching it for clues as to direction in other indices, too, since it sometimes moves first and fastest.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 2:27:24 PM

Volume is picking up as QQQQ tests the 72 SMA support line- it's picking up but still quite light at 53.75M shares so far. The short cycle channel is ticking lower, but there remain very few directional clues here.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 2:16:40 PM

The TRAN is turning down from mid-channel Keltner support. It is risking turning nearby support, into resistance, too. The TRAN is beginning to look slightly weaker on a Keltner basis, and perhaps needs a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 3480.24 to change that outlook to a stronger one. The TRAN is at 3466.74 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 2:14:33 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 2:14:26 PM

Nymex crude is down .375 here at 48.30. Updated chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 2:10:26 PM

It looks as if Keltner support for the OEX is trying to firm up between 552.16-553.13. A break below that on a 15-minute closing basis would change the Keltner outlook.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 2:08:00 PM

QQQQ update at this Link with price holding below 36.40 as the 30 and 60 min channel tops drift higher to the 36.47-.50 area. 72 SMA support is up to 36.33, above which the intraday cycles are bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 2:06:02 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 2:06:00 PM

All day, the OEX's 15-minute Keltner channels have refused to give a clear weighting of support over resistance, something I find often happens in countertrend moves or in moves previous to setting up some kind of consolidation. Still no clear setup.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 1:52:18 PM

And the OEX finally hits the mid-channel Keltner resistance, erasing the Keltner-style bearish divergence that had been present at the end of last week. The resistance at 553.97 is followed closely by Keltner resistance at 555.37, moving toward that long-term 555.60-563.30-ish S/R zone. The 200-sma is right there, too, at 555.60. Gains from here could be limited today, although the OEX actually has moved rather more easily across the 200-sma than it has the 200-ema, up at 556.83.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 1:50:49 PM

Volume breadth has strengthened evenly on the exchanges, advancers beating decliners 1.87:1 on the NYSE and 1.93:1 on the Nasdaq. Overall volume remains very light and QQQQ never broke 36.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 1:45:01 PM

QQQQ is lagging, with its peers printing session highs, still holding below 36.40 here: Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2005 1:43:25 PM

DAteline WSJ Wine lovers may buy directly from out-of-state vineyards, the Supreme Court ruled Monday, striking down laws banning a practice that has flourished because of the Internet and growing popularity of winery tours.

The 5-4 decision overturns laws in New York and Michigan that make it a crime to buy wine directly from vineyards in another state. In all, 24 states have laws that bar interstate shipments.

The state bans are discriminatory and anticompetitive, the court said. "States have broad power to regulate liquor," Justice Anthony Kennedy wrote for the majority. "This power, however, does not allow states to ban, or severely limit, the direct shipment of out-of-state wine while simultaneously authorizing direct shipment by in-state producers."

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 1:37:48 PM

The OEX still balances on Keltner support, but still can't even rise to test Keltner resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 1:37:23 PM

Ten year treasuries are weakening, TNX up to a mere .4 bp loss. Those 1.95 bid to cover ratios on the bills auctioned today were the weakest in over a month and below this year's average. In the case of the 13-week bills, it was below the last 5 years' average, reflecting weak demand.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 1:33:32 PM

QQQQ has almost traded 1/3rd of Friday's 133.3M share volume. Breadth is still positive mostly unchanged, 1.8:1 in favor of advancing volume with the TRINQ at .63.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 1:30:12 PM

Janus Capital (JNS) $14.58 +9.21% ... no news I can find to explain today's upside gains. Approaching 200-day SMA ($14.60) here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 1:26:01 PM

TRIN alert 1.00 -20.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 1:24:57 PM

Oil Service (OSX.X) 124.78 -0.14% ... reversing earlier losses.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 1:23:39 PM

Another bounce for QQQQ above the 72 SMA at 36.30. Bears will want to see it fail below the current 36.40 high to suggest a negative direction for the short cycle indicators.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 1:20:54 PM

The OEX still clings to flattening Keltner support, while it can't yet manage a climb to next Keltner resistance. So far, the Keltner-style bearish divergence persists, but it can be erased with a move up to Keltner line currently at 553.98.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 1:15:44 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.12 +0.88% ... late Friday declared a regular monthly dividend of $0.075 per share for the month ended May 31, 2005. Payable on 06/10/05 to shareholders of record on 5/31/05. Ex-date for the dividend is 05/26/05.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 1:14:22 PM

QQQQ is back down to the 72 SMA here after what amounted to a sideways drift through the pennant apex. 30 min channel support is up to 36.20, resistance lined up at 36.47. So far the price action has been as trendless as the indicators, but it remains bullish above 36.20 support. Updated chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 1:13:10 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 1:07:19 PM

The 13-week t-bill auction generated a modest 1.95 bids tendered for each accepted, with a high rate of 2.8%. Foreign central banks took 2.997B of the total. The 26-week t-bills had a bid-to-cover of 1.95 as well, high rate 3.07%, and foreign central bank participation of 3.497B of the total. I mistakenly listed the total to be auctioned at 28B- the actual total was 30B.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 1:02:06 PM

Awaiting the results of the Treasury's 28B in combined 13-week and 26-week bill auctions.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 1:01:33 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 12:59:23 PM

The OEX continues to find support on a Keltner line currently at 552.49, with next resistance at 553.41-554.03.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 12:59:38 PM

Books-A-Million (BAMM) $7.75 +1.70% ... reports Q1 sales of $113 million vs. $107.9 million and Q1 EPS of $0.06 vs. $0.07 same perios last year. Sees Q2 EPS $0.08 to $0.10. Boosting full year EPS to $0.69-$0.71 before gains.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 12:58:22 PM

The SOX isn't moving, still jammed between Keltner support and Keltner resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 12:52:55 PM

Ten year note yields are down 1.3 bps at 4.108%, just off the lows and challenging Friday's session low. Daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 12:50:19 PM

Intel (INTC) $25.30 +0.68% ... challenges Friday's highs.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 12:47:38 PM

Weather ... Dow Jones - With hurricane season approaching, early forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is 12-15 Tropical Storms and 7-9 Hurricanes in season. The 2004 hurricane season was one of the most damaging in several years and was most devastating ever for the U.S. energy sector in large part due to Hurrican Ivan's impact on offshore oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico.

Tab Gilles : 5/16/2005 12:45:48 PM

DELL On 5/13 10:28 AM posted this chart of Dell with Retracement levels. It's run up to the 61.8% $29.47, today's intraday high. Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 12:42:01 PM

June crude oil is -.625 at 48.05 here, off a session low of 47.575.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 12:37:36 PM

Volume breadth remains positive, advancing volume exceeding declining 1.56:1 on the NYSE and 1.84:1 on the Nasdaq, with the TRIN 1.16 and the TRINQ .68. QQQQ is holding a narrow, light volume range abbove 36.30. Link The Treasury auction results are due in just under half an hour.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 12:34:50 PM

No breakout yet on the SOX, either direction. It's literally squeezed between Keltner support and Keltner resistance.

Tab Gilles : 5/16/2005 12:33:28 PM

Murphy Oil Murphy Oil has entered the Buy Zone. Those looking to invest for the longterm might consider this as an entry point. Of course it could go lower and become even more oversold. PnF has a bearish P/O of $82. Link Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 12:24:08 PM

QQQQ $36.34 +0.27% ... updated 30-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement as well as Keltner channels at this Link ... first sign of any meaningul weakness would be a failure back below the WEEKLY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 12:19:57 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 12:17:44 PM

SOX resistance is beginning to thicken on a Keltner basis. The support is rising beneath it, too, though, so the SOX is primed for either an upside breakout or a downside move to test softening resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 12:09:45 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 12:03:18 PM

QQQQ held at the 72 SMA and is bouncing here, never breaking back within the pennant apex. Volume is quite light, however, and the oscillators are a mess. Nevertheless, the trend since Thursday shows a pattern of higher lows, and while the 30 and 60 min channel tops line up with Friday's high, there's no sign of weakness here yet. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 12:03:07 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 12:00:07 PM

The OEX has been testing the Keltner support needed to keep it moving higher. So far, the test is successful, but the Keltner picture isn't conclusive about whether it will continue to do so. That support is at 552.13, on a 15-minute closing basis.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 11:46:57 AM

The OEX still holds above Keltner support at 552.12, with that support needed to keep the OEX turned toward the next resistance at 554.12. The OEX is about to test that Keltner support, however.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 11:38:42 AM

So far, the OEX finds support where those hoping for a climb would want to see it find support. It has not yet touched Keltner resistance at 554.15, with a touch of that resistance line undoing the Keltner-style bearish divergence that had been present through the end of last week. It's a standoff so far. Next resistance above that is near 555.69.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 11:36:05 AM

Net inflows of foreign capital to US assets fell to $45.7B in March, $8.3B less than the trade deficit in March and well below estimates of $65B - $75B. This was the weakest reading since October 2003's $26.5B, with foreign central banks net sellers of US Treasuries for the firs time since August of that year. February's number was revised down from $84.5B to $84.1B. Net foreign purchases of US securities declined to $60.1B in the current month from February's $98.1B reading

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 11:35:57 AM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $36.29 +0.13%, SPY $116.17 +0.38%, INTC $25.20 +0.31%, ORCL $12.36 (unch), CSCO $18.96 +0.42%, SIRI $5.45 +1.86%, MSFT $25.36 +0.55%, LU @.86 +2.14%, AMEX:XLE $38.03 -2.01%, XOM $52.95 -1.37%

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 11:33:55 AM

QQQQ update at this Link , testing the pennant apex from above. The 72 SMA is in play at 36.29 as well, but the intraday cycles have become too chopped up from this ongoing sideways chop to get a decent directional read from it.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 11:32:07 AM

It might be worth noting that while equities have been moving higher this morning, the dollar has been dropping, at least in relationship to the yen, and that last week, while equities were diving, the dollar was climbing against the yen. All kinds of complicated interactions are at work, including the yen's likely reaction (a strengthening, some speculate) if the yuan is re-valued. Last night, the Chinese warned other governments to back off the pressure, and many speculate that the Chinese don't like to be seen to reacting to pressure from other governments and could dig in their heels if that foreign pressure is not eased. I don't pretend to be able to forecast what's going to come about as a result of all this positioning, but just suggest that since an inverse equity/dollar relationship seems to have asserted itself, those hoping for more equity gains want to see more dollar weakness. At least against the yen, the dollar may be approaching at least short-term support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 11:25:41 AM

Treasury ... to auction off $12.0 billion in 4-week T-bills on Tuesday and redeem $8.0 billion in maturing bills.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 11:17:50 AM

The earlier ambiguity in volume breadth has resolved itself to the upside, with 1.79 advancing shares for each declining on the NYSE, TRIN 1.08, and 1.84 advancing Nasdaq shares for each declining, TRIN way down to .79 in neutral bullish territory.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 11:15:13 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 11:13:39 AM

The TRAN zoomed up today, but now faces mid-channel resistance on its 15-minute chart. It looks as if the TRAN may need to pull back, perhaps after a period of continuing to test that resistance, pulling back perhaps to Keltner support at 3446.78-3451.65.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 11:10:25 AM

The OEX is turning lower without yet having touched the Keltner resistance now at 554.20, but I'm not certain it's through challenging that resistance yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 11:05:11 AM

QQQQ whips back down to the pennant apex after testing a session high of 36.40: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 11:02:32 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 11:00:22 AM

The SOX continues to climb the underside of the Keltner resistance that it broke above Thursday and Friday. As I type, the SOX is rising to challenge that resistance again. The SOX's Keltner picture looks weaker than it did Friday, but another breakout could change that. Watch out as the SOX rises toward that Friday morning high, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 10:59:16 AM

Gold is holding a 1.3 loss at 419.40, silver a .015 gain at 6.958. The US Dollar Index has pulled back slightly, but remains above Friday's range, confirming the break above resistance: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 10:57:43 AM

Here's the current Keltner picture for the OEX, as seen on its 15-minute Keltner chart: The OEX continues to find support on a Keltner line currently at 551.47. It's also pierced nearest Keltner resistance at about 552.34. As long as it can maintain 15-minute closes above that 552.34 level, it looks set to challenge Keltner resistance at 554.22, also near Friday's high. Since mid-week last week, there's been some Keltner-style bearish divergence, and if that's going to continue, the OEX won't actually touch that 554.22 level. If it does, then the Keltner-style bearish divergence has not continued.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 10:56:05 AM

Nymex June crude is down .775 here at 47.90, off a low of 47.625. Today's decline follows last week's stead march lower: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 10:49:21 AM

The RLX is above the 30-dma, an average that has been stopping it since early in March. It has pierced this average at times without closing back above it, but today it's perhaps piercing it by a greater degree than it has so far since early March. Those hoping to see market gains want to see the RLX hold that 30-dma at 410.97 into the close today. Currently, the RLX is at 412.98.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 10:47:03 AM

QQQQ's breaking upper pennant resistance here. 30 and 60 min channel resistance continue to line up at 36.40, but the 30 min channel top is ticking up here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 10:46:07 AM

iPayment (IPMT) $37.99 +20.41% ... percentage gainer at the NASDAQ after its chairman and CEO offered to buy the company for $38 per share in cash.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 10:47:08 AM

I'm sure the futures writers are noting that the SPX is currently testing its 200-sma and -ema's.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 10:43:36 AM

America West (AWA) $4.29 +4.88% ... higher on speculation that it and US Airways will announce merger this weeks. Both carriers closing in on a $250 million loan from Airbus in return for placing an order for about 20 of Airbus' new A350 model.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 10:43:10 AM

Difficult to interpret the Keltner pattern right now on the OEX. Resistance does appear to be softening a little, but support appears to be softening even more.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 10:36:52 AM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) $47.95 is down $0.72, or -1.47% (30-minute delayed) ...

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 10:35:36 AM

Volume is running slim, which fits the neutral pennant formation noted earlier for QQQQ. A break at the apex either above 36.31 or below 36.18 accompanied by a surge of volume should be directional. The intraday oscillators are currently chopped up and will follow the move in either direction.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 10:35:21 AM

September Crude Oil (cl05u) $50.55 is down $0.95, or -1.84% (30-min delayed) ... slips below $50.59-$50.73 "zone of support."

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 10:27:17 AM

The SOX continues to climb the underside of Keltner resistance, with that resistance still turning higher, but stronger than it was Friday.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 10:26:11 AM

The Keltner line currently at 550.96 did support the OEX on 15-minute closes and the OEX rises again to test the Keltner resistance that stopped it earlier. That resistance may be softening a little. It looks as if it could be strong enough to slow the OEX, but this same configuration could not stop the BIX or RLX this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 10:24:43 AM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $5.46 +2.05% ... higher in sympath with XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $28.65 +1.38% after company said it had surpassed the 4 million subscriber mark and was on track to hit its goal of 5.5 million subs by the end of 2005. Last month, Sirius (SIRI) said it had 1.4 million subs and expected to have 2.7 million by the end of 2005.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 10:24:42 AM

QQQQ is back above the 72 SMA and coiling tighter within a pennant from Friday afternoon's high and low: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 10:19:01 AM

Home Depot (NYSE:HD) $37.05 +2.09% ... percentage gainer among Dow components. MO $65.69 +1.13% only other >+1.0%. XOM $53.15 -1.02%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 10:17:42 AM

Lowes (LOW) $54.70 +3.46% ... building products retailer reported Q1 net income of $590 million, or $0.74 per share, which was shy of Wall Street's forecast of $0.76. Same store sales were up 3.8% in the quarter, while total sales jumped 14.2% to $9.91 billion from $8.68 billion in year-ago quarter. Some analysts positive on stock this morning after company cited cooler weather in March dampened sales growth in Q1.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 10:16:53 AM

Volume breadth is mixed, 1.55 advancing NYSE shares for each declining, while on the Nasdaq, there are 1.04 declining shares for each advancing.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 10:15:48 AM

Ten year notes are holding a tight range below today's high, TNX -.6 bps at 4.115%. QQQQ is holding 36.20 with the TRINQ up a 1.45, showing moderate selling pressure.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 10:11:55 AM

The OEX is coming down to test the 550.71 first Keltner support on the 15-minute chart. Bulls want to see that support hold on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 10:08:09 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link ... Friday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 10:06:18 AM

Crude oil has reopened, June crude currently -.75 at 47.925, a tick above the session low.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 10:01:55 AM

The Treasury will be auctioning 15B in 3-month and 13B in 6-month bills today, 28B in total. The results are expected shortly after 1PM.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 10:01:03 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 10:00:37 AM

QQQQ is pulling back from its surge to 36.31, just breaking the 36.20 level. I'm surprised to see so little traction following that massive Fed repo announcement. There's a Treasury auction today, and I'll go check how much is being sold- but it looks like the equity markets aren't initially impressed with that big show of force from the Fed.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 9:57:35 AM

It may be time for the OEX to pull back. Bulls hope that if it does pull back, it will find support at the Keltner line currently at 550.58. If not, next support is at 548.66-548.84. I'll be looking for a possible higher or equal low.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 9:55:21 AM

The Fed has just announced a big 12B overnight repo to replace 4.75B expiring, which results in a net add of 7.25B for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 9:52:23 AM

VIX.X 16.39 +0.42% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 14.24, 15.37, Piv= 16.53, 17.68, 18.83

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 9:50:33 AM

The OEX now faces the analogous Keltner resistance configuration that the BIX and RLX broke through this morning. As it does, the RLX and BIX face higher resistance of their own. I'm still not seeing anything that screams "rollover imminent," and I still consider bounces to possibly be countertrend plays, so I'm still not seeing a play setup.

I'm battling an illness this morning, so unless I'm certain of what I'm seeing, I'm going to be hesitant to draw too firm a conclusion today. I think the charts present some opportunities for confusion and my own illness does, too, so I don't want to be jumping to conclusions that might be wrong.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 9:48:16 AM

QQQQ is rising sharply back to its premarket levels, but 30 and 60 min channel support line up at 36.40. If the bulls can hold above 36.20 for awhile, what currently looks like stiff channel resistance at that level will begin to moderate.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 9:46:13 AM

The SOX's Keltner outlook has been different than that of other indices. The SOX broke out Friday afternoon, then sank back below the breakout level. It's challenged it again this morning, but resistance looks a little stronger than it had. That resistance still turns higher, so the SOX can climb it, but unless it does so soon, that resistance from 409.16-410.00 may have time to firm.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 9:44:56 AM

Gold is bouncing from its 418.10 low to a current loss of 1 at 419.70, with silver green at 6.976. HUI is up .7% at 169.22, XAU +.66% at 79.5. The USD Index remains weak following the Empire State Index release at 8:30: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 9:42:26 AM

The shared components of the BIX must be helping to drive the OEX higher, as the BIX has already hit the BIX resistance that's analogous to the OEX's 552-552.40 Keltner resistance levels. The RLX has, too, in fact looking even stronger on a Keltner basis.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 9:40:35 AM

QQQQ retracing part of the initial drop, currently up to 36.18. Updated chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 9:37:55 AM

The OEX maintains Keltner support at 550.14, with the next resistance at 552.02-552.41. It still looks as if it's trying to bounce toward that next resistance. I don't see a play just yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 9:35:22 AM

QQQQ just broke 36.20 support, dropping below the 72 SMA line. 60 min channel support is down at 36.03, with 1st confluence support at 36.10.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 9:32:29 AM

The OEX rises from Friday's close. As long as it's maintaining 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 550.14, it may be rising into Keltner resistance at 551.99-552.41.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 9:55:00 AM

Merger/acquisition ... UPS to buy less-than-truckload carrier Overnite (OVNT) for $43.25 a share, or $1.25 billion in cash.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 9:25:41 AM

ONYX Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) $31.85 ... lower at $27.00 after interim phase III trial findings from it and Bayer (BAY) for the experimental drug Sorafenib for kidney cancer showed progression-free survival was doubled to a median of 24 weeks vs. 12 weeks for patients receiving the placebo. Wachovia downgraded the stock with the firm saying the good news is already in the shares. Pfizer's (PFE) $27.86, experimental drug Sutent is also thought to be a potential competitor to Sorafenib. Sutent is also in clinical trial.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 9:11:20 AM

QQQQ continues to hang in last week's cycle seesaw, with op-ex week kicking off today. The daily cycle is overbought and in the zone at which I'd expect a top, but it will take a close below 35.80, and most likely 35.60 to confirm the start of a new downphase. Within that longer cycle, the 60 min cycle points weakly higher while the 30 min cycle points lower. Current channel support is at 36.20, below which the 30 min cycle downphase should begin to assert itself.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 8:56:19 AM

Session low for gold here at 418.70, falling from another lower high of 420.70. Crude oil is also at a session low, -.675 to 48.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 8:46:28 AM

The current bounce in treasuries has TNX pulling back to the low end of Friday's range, with the daily cycle oscillators in a downside whipsaw that aborted the upphase last week. Updated daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 8:39:44 AM

Bonds continue to advance, with TNX now down .2 bps at 4.119%. While the futures are flat to negative here, while QQQQ is holding a small gain after dipping on a brief spike to 36.20.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 8:54:09 AM

Bad week last week on the OEX corral. The daily Keltner chart shows that although the OEX bounced strongly from Friday's low, it yet again closed beneath the basis line of the smallest channel, keeping that channel turned down toward 545.75 or perhaps even toward 541.09. Until and unless the OEX produces daily closes above a Keltner line currently at 554.68, it remains vulnerable to more downside, on a Keltner basis, at least.

For me, that means that bounces remain countertrend moves and the optimum play is a bounce-and-rollover bearish entry. As Friday ended, the OEX looked primed for a bounce, although some rattling around, testing and firming up support might be needed first. So, the OEX remains vulnerable to lower prices even on a short-term basis, but it looks as if it's actually trying to firm up and bounce, however successful or unsuccessful that attempt might be. I wouldn't be surprised if an equal or higher low isn't needed first.

Resistance has softened, too, allowing for a bounce attempt, although it perhaps remains strong enough to temper any bounce. Taken together, this doesn't give me a strong feeling about an early-morning trade. Nothing yet presents itself. I need to see how resistance and support shape up first.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2005 8:33:49 AM

Program Trading Levels for Monday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.64 and set for program selling at $-0.48

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 8:33:20 AM

The Empire State Index is a recent and usually little regarded datapoint, but the markets reacted strongly to it. Bonds have spiked to session highs, QQQQ dipped negative and is bouncing now. Gold hit a low of 419.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 8:32:05 AM

Headlines:

U.S. MAY EMPIRE STATE INDEX -11.1 VS 2.0 IN APRIL

U.S. MAY EMPIRE STATE WEAKEST SINCE APRIL 2003

U.S. MAY EMPIRE STATE INDEX BELOW CONSENSUS 10.7

U.S. MAY EMPIRE STATE EMPLOYMENT INDEX 0.2 VS 8.5 APRIL

Jonathan Levinson : 5/16/2005 8:08:15 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1158, NQ 1475, YM 10165 and QQQQ +.07 at 36.31. Gold is down 1.20 at 419.5, silver -.035 at 6.908, ten year notes -1/8 at 111 27/32 and crude oil -.525 at 48.15.

Today's lone economic report is the Empire State Index, est. 11, which we await at 8:30.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2005 7:14:36 AM

Good morning. For a time, the Nikkei held onto modest declines despite a disappointing current account surplus number. In mid-afternoon, it began falling ahead of tomorrow's preliminary GDP. Most other Asian markets fell, seeing weakness in crude and metal stocks. European markets decline, too, pressured by some oil-related issues. Despite the weakness in Asian and European markets, our futures had crept slightly higher, but began slipping as this report was uploaded. As of 6:56 EST, gold was down $1.20, and crude, down $0.47 to $48.20. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Japan's April domestic CGPI climbed 1.8% over the year-ago number, ahead of forecasts of 1.4% growth. The increase was 0.6% over March's. However, this upside surprise was balanced by a downside one, with the March current account surplus dropping to 1.37 trillion yen from February's 1.66 trillion yen. The expectations had been for a small rise, to 1.68 trillion yen. A contraction in income from international investments and a rise in imports helped create that decline. The surplus was at its lowest level in more than a year. At first, the Nikkei traded just under the flat-line level. It continued that pattern through the mid-afternoon, but then plummeted the rest of the day, closing down 101.89 points or 0.92%, at 10,947.22. Tomorrow will see the release of preliminary GDP for the January-March quarter, and the combination of the fall in the surplus and fear of the GDP must have led some to bail from positions.

Most other Asian markets fell, too. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.93%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 0.63%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.29%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.73%. China's Shanghai Composite lost 1.10%, with textile-related issues trading lower after Friday's announcement that quotes would be re-imposed on Chinese textile imports.

European markets trend lower, too. As had happened to some degree in Asia, oil and metals-related issues are under pressure. Oil majors are declining. Both print articles and discussions on CNBC center on the American Society of Clinical Oncology's meeting that began this weekend, with drug manufacturers already reacting to reports on specific drugs. German manufacturer Schering AG has been weak this morning after it reported that a Phase III trial of PTK/ZK drug did not produce statistical significance although it had seen a 12% decline in disease progression in advanced colorectal cancer. Roche Holdings reported that Herceptin use in a certain aggressive breast cancer resulted in a highly significant reduction of disease. GlaxoSmithKline also saw a significant response in its breast cancer treatment Lapatinib. As I type, a CNBC commentator lauds Genetech's breast cancer drug Avastin. Bayer, Onyx Pharmaceuticals and Merck also reported encouraging results, with a Bayer and Onyx drug used to treat kidney cancer, and a Merck one to treat rectal and colon cancer. Not all drug makers traded in accordance with their results this morning, as some with good news were dragged lower by general market weakness in Europe, but the news coming out of this conference this weekend and today may continue to impact the biotechs both in Europe and the U.S.

Companies reacting to earnings reports included Spanish telecommunication company Telefonica SA, rising after profit surprised to the upside. The mobile phone division grew. French-Spanish tobacco maker Altadis SA fell after it disappointed, with cigarette sales down 0.6%.

As of 7:00 EST, the FTSE 100 had declined 9.50 points or 0.19%, to 4,877.00. The CAC 40 had declined 14.38 points or 0.36%, to 4,003.51. The DAX had declined 14.09 points or 0.33%, at 4,261.61.

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