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OI Technical Staff : 5/17/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 6:00:00 PM

NDX.X CURRENT 30-minute interval chart comparison to 05:38:45 Post at this Link ... note today's closing bar and that found back in early April of 2004. Keltner's all ramping like a rollercoaster headed for the moon!

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 5:42:40 PM

April 2004 study for NDX.X where sellers may have failed the test in my opinion. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 5:37:10 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 4:46:36 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 4:37:42 PM

Closing Market Watch at this Link ... June Crude Oil (cl05m) settled up $0.36 at $48.97 on Tuesday.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 4:26:47 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link ... Today's Activity ... swing traded short the QQQQ at $36.30, run over by a rollercoaster at $36.60 and stopped. ($-0.30, or -0.83%). Sold NAKED three (3) of the Dow Diamonds DIA Jun. $100 Puts (DIA-RV) at the bid of $0.75. Will eyeball a stop at $1.90, target "poof." Swing traded long 1/2 bullish position in shares of Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) at $35.68, stop $33.50, target $42.00

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 4:15:48 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) go out at $103.49 +0.82%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 4:13:31 PM

QQQQ $36.70 +0.60% ... $36.69 early extended.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 4:07:16 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT)

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 4:14:06 PM

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $21.55 ... $21.69 on headline numbers of $0.37 per share vs. $0.36 consensus (Non GAAP). Sees Q3 Non GAAP $0.29-$0.31 on revenue of $20.3-$20.7 billion. Q2 revenue came in +7.2% at $21.57 billion vs. $20.11 billion same period last year. Latest quarterly revenue boosted by +10% growth in Europe, MidEast and Africa.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 4:02:13 PM

That historical S/R at 558 stopped the OEX this afternoon. Both the Keltners and the upside target predicted by the confirmed inverse H&S suggest that there could be more upside to go, but we'll see tomorrow morning how things shape up.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 3:52:45 PM

QQQQ $36.72 +0.65% ... trader/investors getting their answer to Friday's post-market question. Upper Keltner "resistance" at $36.99.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 3:50:46 PM

The upside target of the OEX's inverse H&S on the 15-minute chart is at about 563, back near the top of that 555.60-563.30-ish S/R chop zone carried forward from the monthly chart. Keltner charts suggest that bulls should have profit protecting plans in place nearer 560.60-561.00, however.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 3:49:18 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.50 +0.85% ... surging to the close and breaks above WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 3:47:25 PM

Swing trade 1/2 bullish position alert for shares of Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $35.68 +0.67%, stop $33.50, target $42.00.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 3:41:36 PM

The OEX continues the move higher toward the next Keltner target at 560.60, but there's that pesky historical S/R near 558 to consider, too. Just lots of points at which it might be stopped, although the upside target for its inverse H&S on the 15-minute chart is much higher than 560.60.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 3:41:34 PM

Genesco (GCO) $31.56 +1.15% Link ... new 52-weeker.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 3:39:45 PM

Volume is light currently at 77.6M QQQQs, but yesterday's total volume was 79.14M. While today's volume is still well below average, it's higher than yesterday's. While this feels like short covering and is difficult to believe, it's still going up.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 3:35:51 PM

QQQQ's current 20 day bollinger resistance is currently 36.65, with price already exceeding it. 72 period SMA support is up to 36.45, and the 30 and 60 min cycles will remain bullish above it. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 3:32:24 PM

The TRAN created the same breakout signal the OEX did, moving above the same Keltner configuration. Now it is charging higher, toward 3531.75 next resistance. The TRAN is at 3509.20 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 3:28:27 PM

VIX.X 14.94 -4.71% ... looking 14.00-ish

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 3:27:28 PM

Mark on the Futures side is mad, and I'm just . . . not confused and not exactly distrustful, but perhaps more distrustful than anything else. Just watching. The OEX has confirmed a breakout signal with an upside target of 560.51 and it's just consolidating above the breakout signal, but was this just a knee-jerk reaction to the report? Will it be reversed? This move jammed the OEX into a long-term resistance zone and below the 200-ema. Hard to trust the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 3:24:20 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) settled up 36 cents, or 0.74% at $48.97 on the NYMEX.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 3:22:03 PM

The OEX hovers above the breakout level, with small-bodied candles, but it didn't produce an evening-star formation, either.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 3:13:46 PM

The OEX is now testing the level that produced the breakout signal. A 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 556.16 would erase that breakout signal and suggest a decline to 554.83. Be careful if the close is only minimally below that line, however. We saw a knee-jerk reaction but there are a lot of shorts worried about losing profits, too.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 3:12:23 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 3:08:38 PM

The OEX turns lower, but it's far yet from matching the tall white candle that began forming about 30 minutes ago with a white candle of equal height.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 3:09:42 PM

NASDAQ Comp (COMPX) 1,999.95 ... challenging its flat 200-day SMA (1,998.00) here.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 3:03:51 PM

Doji at the top of a tall white candle: OEX bulls don't want to see a tall red candle this current 15-minute period. First support at 556.13, and then at 554.88. Strongest support closer to 553.59-553.91.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 3:01:57 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 2:59:17 PM

Another breakout on the SOX's 15-minute Keltenr chart, erasing the bearish divergence seen over the last three swing highs on that chart, but the SOX turns down immediately to retest the breakout zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 2:57:40 PM

Barely any pullback, with QQQQ a nickel off the highs as the 30 min cycle upphase works its way higher. The weak 60 min downphase has stalled and the channel is beginning to turn up. Volume has boomed on this sharp move, and until price gets back below yesterday's low, the bulls are in control. This seals the fate of the 30/60 min downphases all morning, merely corrective. The only question is whether the daily cycle is making its terminal push here, or beginning a bullish trending move. The benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls until some actual selling appears.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 2:57:00 PM

A potential doji (15-minute chart) on top of a tall white candle, between the 200-sma and 200-ema: that's what the OEX is doing now.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 2:53:14 PM

Equities and the dollar moving up in concert this time (at least against the yen), unlike the oppositional moves we've seen over the last few days.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 2:48:56 PM

Of course, there was a 15-minute close above the Keltner line needed to set a new upside target, this one at 560.47, but remain a bit skeptical of this upside target, with the OEX now challenging the 200-ema.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 2:49:20 PM

Swing trade sell naked three (3) of the Dow Diamonds (DIA) June 100 Puts (DIA-RV) at the bid of $0.75. DIA $103.11 here

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 2:43:59 PM

It's going to be touch and go as to whether the OEX closes this 15-minute period high enough to create a breakout signal. The OEX line in question has bumped up to 555.85 and the OEX is sinking to 555.93 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 2:43:03 PM

Price has blown clear above the upper 30 and 60 min channel tops. If this doesn't blow off almost immediately, then it's indicating a potential rocket ride higher as the toppy daily cycle will begin trending in overbought. This is a rare occurrence, but very powerful when it actually occurs. Usually, the keltner break gets reversed quickly. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 2:42:44 PM

NDX.X 1,483.92 +0.21% ... no trade at MONTHLY R1 yet. DIA $103.00 +0.36% ... but will should DIA make the bolder move above DAILY R1.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 2:40:38 PM

A 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 555.85 would set a new upside target for the OEX, of 560.41, but I'd take that upside target with some skepticism. The 15-minute close above that Keltner line hasn't occurred yet, either, although it may well occur.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 2:39:40 PM

Buy Program Premium ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 2:39:23 PM

Swing trade bearish stop alert for the QQQQ $36.60 !!!!!

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 2:39:08 PM

The OEX is right at the 200-sma, with the 200-ema at 556.86.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 2:38:10 PM

Session highs across the board, volume breadth ticking positive for the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 2:38:09 PM

QQQQ $36.50 +0.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 3:06:59 PM

Front or back of a rollercoaster? Link

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 2:35:19 PM

The OEX jumped up to test yesterday's HOD. Keltner resistance at 555.69, near the bottom of that 555.60-563.30-ish zone that's so problematic for the OEX, especially with the 200-sma and -ema within that zone, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 2:34:42 PM

QQQQ testing upper 30 and 60 min channel resistance at yesterday's high: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 2:33:52 PM

QQQQ $36.49 +0.02% ... SPY $116.89 +0.07% ... DIA $102.75 +0.10% ...

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 2:33:52 PM

Wow, that statement almost guarantees that China will dig in its heels, doesn't it? No face-saving in that threat.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 2:32:59 PM

Dollar jumping around.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 2:32:59 PM

TRIN alert 0.88 -4.34%

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 2:32:35 PM

Ten year notes unmoved by the report, -1.8 bps at 4.106% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 2:32:05 PM








Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 2:31:39 PM

Volume breadth is now positive on the NYSE 1.19:1 and recovering fast on the Nasdaq, 1.28:1 in favor of decliners.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 2:29:57 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 2:26:11 PM

No weakness for bonds ahead of the 2:30 report, with TNX back down to a 1.9 bp loss at 4.106%. Even WMT us recovering off its 46.95 low, currently -.16 at 47.06.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 2:26:22 PM

United Tech (UTX) $103.12 +0.31% Link ... traded as low as $102.06 earlier this morning, but has reversed those losses after the Dow component reaffirmed 2005 EPS guidance of $5.90-$6.15 (consensus $6.09).

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 2:24:31 PM

I'm not playing hooky. I'm right here watching moment by moment, but trying not to microanalyze.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 2:18:23 PM

Equilibrium on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner channels. Note that the advdec line has been generally climbing since 10:50.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 2:18:18 PM

QQQQ $36.47 ... back to test MONTHLY R1 again.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 2:19:04 PM

I'm not seeing anything that looks like a rollercoaster plunging lower.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 2:16:04 PM

QQQQ's breaking above descending intraday resistance here at 36.40: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 2:12:02 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 2:09:39 PM

The OEX still trades sideways, the 15-minute Keltner channels almost perfectly aligned, one within the other. Equilibrium. Now waiting fo rsomething to break it. A move up to 555.50 is now almost as likely, Keltner wise, as a move down to 550.77. Almost, but not quite. Keltner resistance is still just a bit stronger.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 2:08:15 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 2:06:42 PM

Those interested in following the Treasury's Foreign Exchange Report at 2:30 can try this Link a few minutes before the press conference starts.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 2:04:05 PM

So far QQQQ's 60 min cycle downphase is accomplishing nothing other than running the clock, and the 30 min cycle oscillators have actually turned up from just below their midpoint. The daily cycle stochastic continues to edge toward a bearish kiss from the top of its range, but until price drops even a little, the upphase will remain. The 30 min cycle upphase starting early here could provide the next assault on the highs. So far today, the bears have been refusing what cyclically was a very inviting setup- as time passes, the benefit of the doubt on these cycles will shift back to the bulls.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 1:58:55 PM

Nymex crude is -.125 at 48.475 here in what is proving to be a slow session. Updated 50-tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 1:58:00 PM

The OEX trades sideways. Not much else to be said just now.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 1:54:38 PM

Volume breadth remains negative, declining shares beating advancing 1.21:1 on the NYSE and 1.88:1 on the Nasdaq, with the TRIN up to .99 and the TRINQ 1.28.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 1:49:46 PM

The TRAN is attempting another upside breakout above the central Keltner resistance, but it hasn't yet beaten yesterday's late-day high of 3479.03, with the TRAN currently at 3472.89 and actually easing a little from its HOD reached about 30 minutes ago. No answer here yet, either.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 1:39:15 PM

QQQQ $36.40 -0.21% ... screen capture of option chain. May $36 call volume 2:1 over $36 puts volume. VXN.X 19.08 +1.81%, so would think call selling and put buying, but QQQQ holding tough. Option chain at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 1:38:03 PM

There's a hint of a roughly formed H&S at the top of the SOX's climb. Keltner-wise, the SOX has been showing bearish divergence on the 15-minute chart since last week's breakout. If that's to continue, the SOX will not touch 412.93 again over the short term, perhaps not until it's tested a Keltner zone now from 404.92-406.33. If it does, the bearish diverence will be erased.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 1:36:23 PM

QQQQ chart update at this Link , back above the 72 SMA and challenging declining intraday resistance at 36.40. Volume is light at 51.8M shares so far, and while volume breadth remains negative and the TRINQ at 1.25, the market isn't feeling heavy enough to suggest more than corrective weakness despite the toppy daily cycle.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 1:30:42 PM

I think we have a dreaded equilibrium position going on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart. The 60-minute still looks more bearish than bullish or neutral, but looks exactly as the 15-minute one did earlier today. The 60-minute chart shows the OEX coiling at the top of a climb, so we know to watch for a potential upside break. So far, Keltner evidence and the usual behavior with a neutral triangle at the top of a climb give opposite impressions, but the Keltner outlook could be morphing.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 1:25:22 PM

Ten year bonds are dropping here, with ten year yields rising to a 1 bp loss at 4.115%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 1:23:32 PM

QQQQ $36.38 -0.27% ... the May $36 calls are bid $0.50 and May $36 puts bid $0.15.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 1:22:07 PM

And here we go again, with the OEX moving up again. This morning I mentioned that the OEX perhaps had some more churning to do, but after the first 15 minutes of trade, the Keltner picture looked conclusive enough that I didn't really believe it. I should have. When I look at the 60-minute chart, support still looks far weaker than resistance, but resistance isn't so strong that the OEX couldn't rise a little to test it.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 1:20:41 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $102.39 -0.24% ... at this point, they won't "give up" their DAILY Pivot of $102.31. QQQQ $36.34 -0.38% ... did trade DAILY S1 ($36.23) at morning low of $36.21. When reviewing earlier chart of QQQQ with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot, can perhaps see "max downside" this week at $35.72. May "Max Pain Theory" still $36.00 ($1 increments).

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 1:18:19 PM

QQQQ continues to trade both sides of the 72 period SMA at 36.34, with crude oil back to negative territory, -.10 at 48.50.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 1:13:59 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 1:10:15 PM

The OEX is right back where it was a couple of hours ago, Keltner-wise. Keltner resistance looks far stronger than support, but the OEX doesn't fall.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 1:08:52 PM

TRIN 0.93

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 1:04:18 PM

TRIN alert 1.01 +9.78% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 1:04:06 PM

The 4-week t-note auction generated a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.36, with a high rate of 2.55%. Foreign central banks took 2.4B of the 12B total.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 1:02:29 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 12:59:43 PM

The OEX tips lower oh-so-slowly. No new low yet. Next potential support at 552.27, but with a new LOD, the OEX is vulnerable to a Keltner line currently at 550.63.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 12:55:58 PM

Awaiting the results of the 12B 4-week t-bill auction, due in the coming minutes.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 12:50:55 PM

No new daily low just yet on the OEX. It still looks vulnerable to a Keltner line now at 550.65, but looks have been deceiving today. So far.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 12:45:43 PM

OEX looks weaker again, but needs to break below the day's low to get things started to the downside.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 12:42:21 PM

June crude oil +.10 at 48.70 here.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 12:37:07 PM

So far, the OEX can't make any more upward progress than it could downward. Resistance hints at firming up again. On a wider time frame, say the 60-minute Keltner picture, resistance still looks far firmer than support, but that's resistance up to 555.13, so the OEX isn't precluded from climbing a bit first before finally finds the resistance that will turn it lower again.

One danger in any Keltner view is that all intraday Keltner charts may be setting up into equilibrium positions. If they are, the OEX might be able to move quite easily across the mid-channel level despite what looks like strong resistance or back across it afterward despite what would then look like strong support. So far, though, resistance looks stronger than support on several charts, still not precluding further tests of that resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 12:37:00 PM

QQQQ's testing 72 period SMA support here at 36.34, with the short cycle oscillators mixed and volume light overall. This flat range is aimless and trendless within the daily cycle upphase that appears to be maxxed out, and the 60 min cycle that appears to be rolling over. We often see a flat range develop within the topping or bottoming 60 min cycle. But if that interpretation is valid, today's highs should not be exceeded, and 36.20 will have to break this afternoon.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 12:26:15 PM

Except for a blip up late yesterday afternoon and one down earlier today, the TRAN has been trading straight out just beneath the mid-channel resistance level since midmorning yesterday. It's going to have to really break one direction or the other sometime or another, but so far, each break attempt, one to the upside and one to the downside, has seen the TRAN return right to that mid-line level.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 12:17:45 PM

QQQQ is back to the 72 period SMA here at 35.36, Link but bears need a break of 36.30, confirmed by a move below 36.20 to get the longer intraday cycles moving to the downside.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 12:17:08 PM

Now the OEX comes down to retest the first level of resistance that it was able to pop through earlier. If this now holds as support, the Keltner picture has changed somewhat. If it fails, bears still need to see follow-through and a move to a new low to feel comfortable about looking to that potential downside target of 550.62. Right now, the Keltner picture is somewhat neutral, with support at 553.13 and resistance at 553.86-554.30.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 12:14:04 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 12:06:23 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 11:58:50 AM

Graphic for Marc's 11:58 post: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 11:58:51 AM

After the push higher, a doji on the just-about-to-be completed OEX's 15-minute candle as it tests next Keltner resistance. I've been mentioning that Keltner resistance looked firm enough to stop the OEX (not quite so strong now, though) but perhaps not strong enough to keep the OEX from moving through the first layer of resistance. That's what happened, changing the Keltner picture somewhat. If 553.10-553.32 turns out to be support now, the OEX's Keltner picture will have strengthened somewhat.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 11:57:22 AM

Bonds continue to march higher, TNX down to 4.096%, -2.9 bps, setting new lows for the move today. Updated daily chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 11:54:46 AM

The OEX is getting slapped back a little after attempting to push above the next level of Keltner resistance. Now that 553.11-553.33 former resistance might now be support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 11:56:31 AM

Merck (MRK) $32.70 -2.24% ... lone percentage loser among Dow components. Today, Credit Suisse First Boston said it was concerned about the negative trends in the drug giant's gross profit margins. Catherine Arnold from CSFB said MRK's gross margins may be overstated based upon her analysis of the company's accounting for long-term inventory, with the practice unlikely to be sustainable. Ms. Arnold said recent 10-K and 10-K filings show the company has either purchased, or built a substantial balance of "long-term inventory," of $700 million in pre-launch vaccine components like Arcoxia. Ms. Arnold thinks that without the builing of "long-term inventory" by Merck, gross margins could have been 80 to 460 basis points lower in Q3 2004 compared to Q1 2005. Ms. Arnold currently forecasts Merck's gross margins will contract from 81% in 2003 (before the withdrawal of Vioxx), to 72% in 2009 (after the loss of Vioxx, Zocor and Fosamax).

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 11:47:18 AM

Keltner picture beginning to change on the OEX. Bears couldn't get the job done, and now bulls are going to give it a try.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 11:44:48 AM

The OEX is breaking above first Keltner resistance and has a chance of closing the 15-minute period above it. It's now testing the next level of Keltner resistance. That failure to break lower predicted this attempt to rise higher. Now bears are going to have to see where it goes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 11:44:25 AM

QQQQ $36.39 -0.24% ... buyers hold tough as they press back to DAILY Pivot. If sellers had any conviction, they's whack it here. (similar to the early morning bounce back to MONTHLY R1)

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 11:39:14 AM

QQQQ breaking back above 72 period SMA resistance here: Link . Channel resistance remains at 36.47-.50, with first price confluence just above at 36.40. Any failure to break the previous highs would confirm the 60 min cycle rollover.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 11:35:32 AM

OEX Keltner resistance continues to strengthen on the 15-minute chart, but the OEX still refuses to fall, continuing to retest that resistance. I've mentioned this morning that it will take a strong buy program to propel the OEX through that resistance, but the longer the OEX goes without falling beneath that resistance, the more likely it becomes that a buy program will appear. Chart-wise, the OEX remains vulnerable to a Keltner line currently at 550.50.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 11:34:52 AM

Stillwater Mining (SWC) $6.21 +2.64% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 11:34:31 AM

North American Palladium (PAL) $4.57 +17.17% Link ... late yesterday reported a realized net loss of $7.7 million, or $0.15 per share on revenues of $26.2 million compared to net income of $6.1 million, or $0.11 per share on revenues of $53.1 million in the same period last year. The company said revenues for the latest quarter were negatively impacted by a 42% decline in palladium production, combined with lower palladium prices.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 11:26:14 AM

QQQQ $36.31 ... updated 30-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 11:24:49 AM

TNX is testing 4.1% here, new lows for the move with ZN bonds reaching 112 7/32.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 11:23:52 AM

Now the OEX Keltner resistance is beginning to look more significant, with support now far weaker. It would take a strong buy program to change that outlook. The OEX continues to look vulnerable to 550.44.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 11:23:50 AM

While not listed among the market moving data for today, the Treasury is scheduled to release its long-awaited report on the Chinese currency issue. This report, to be released at 2:30PM, will be closely watched as a possible touchstone for growing tensions surrounding China's currency peg and the growing push for trade restrictions. With China a net buyer of US treasury bonds, there's the potential for big moves in the dollar and bonds upon the release of that report.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 11:18:23 AM

Another 15-minute OEX close beneath the Keltner resistance from 553.05-553.14, but the OEX still isn't giving up, still consolidating just beneath this resistance. At some point, if bears can't produce any follow through on the weakness, bulls will begin to get bolder. The OEX still looks vulnerable to 550.44, but bears need to get the job done soon.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 11:15:29 AM

June gold is holding its 1.2 gain at 420.70 with a bullish stochastic kiss for the daily cycle here: Link . HUI and XAU are holding their gains, +1.68% at 169.25 and +1.55% at 79.95 respectively. Crude oil has gone positive, +.075 at 48.675 here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 11:09:32 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 11:05:40 AM

The OEX tests Keltner resistance from 553.07-553.23, with next resistance converging from 553.90-554.33. This river of resistance lines still looks strong enough to halt the OEX, but still hasn't converged closely enough to prevent the OEX from rising through several layers of the resistance. So far, resistance at the lower two lines has held, but it may not continue to do so.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 11:05:13 AM

QQQQ continues to struggle with the 72 period SMA resistance, with volume breadth improving, currently 2.75:1 in favor of decliners. Crude oil is up to unchanged here at 48.60, ten year treasuries up to session highs with TNX down 2 bps at 4.105%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 11:02:46 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 11:01:04 AM

A 15-minute OEX close beneath the Keltner level that short-term bears wanted to see hold on those closes, but the battle isn't over yet. The OEX still tests that resistance.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 10:57:16 AM

Advdec line continues lower.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 10:56:29 AM

OEX Keltner resistance continues to hold, and short-term bears continue to want to see a 15-minute close beneath first Keltner resistance from 553.08-553.33. Next resistance at 553.92-554.46.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 10:51:22 AM

QQQQ update at this Link with price bouncing toward the 72 SMA at 36.35. The bounce should be corrective within the 30 and 60 min cycle downphases, but a break of 36.35 would stall the 30 min cycle. A failure here would set up a more aggressive test of 36.20 support.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 10:49:36 AM

OEX Keltner resistance holds so far.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 10:46:00 AM

The OEX comes right up to retest resistance that looks firm enough to turn it lower, barring a strong buy program, as I mentioned earlier, but resistance that hasn't converged closely enough to prevent the OEX from penetrating some layers of resistance, perhaps. Resistance begins at 553.08 up to 554.38, with bears being cheered if the first 553.08-553.36 resistance holds on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 10:40:48 AM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $36.28, INTC $25.30 -0.11%, ORCL $12.07 -2.26%, SPY $116.35 -0.38%, CSCO $18.88 -1.04%, XIDE $6.77 -39.2%, JDSU $1.41 -2.75%, LU $2.84 -0.69%, MSFT $25.28 -0.82%, HD $38.98 +4.30%

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 10:40:03 AM

Nymex crude oil is -.175 at 48.425 here, off a low of 48.05.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 10:40:00 AM

OEX coming up to test building Keltner resistance. As currently configured, that resistance looks firm enough to halt the OEX, barring a strong buy program, but perhaps not strong enough to prevent the OEX rising above the line currently at 553.47 and testing next resistance. Have to see.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 10:36:17 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 10:33:31 AM

As the OEX attempts a bounce, next Keltner resistance is at 553.08-553.44, with resistance closely following at 553.94-554.46.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 10:31:59 AM

QQQQ intraday chart at this Link , with a doji spike just now to 36.21.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 10:30:56 AM

A 15-minute OEX close beneath the Keltner line currently at 553.12, suggesting that the OEX might eventually test the 550.40 level. If in a bearish short-term OEX play (and I feel comfortable only with short-term plays right now while the OEX is near that chop zone), I'd have profit-protecting plans in place for a little higher than that, perhaps just under 551.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 10:26:21 AM

The advdec line rolled over again, of course.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 10:25:43 AM

Volume breadth is negative on both exchanges now, 1.1 declining NYSE shares for each advancing and 3.38 declining Nasdaq shares for each advancing. The TRIN is at .71, the TRINQ showing moderate selling pressure at 1.52.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 10:25:32 AM

The OEX tests Keltner support, but if there's a bounce, short-term bears would like to see a 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 553.13, or at least below the 553.78-553.97 levels.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 10:23:18 AM

Back to find bonds at a session high and QQQQ at a low, with the 30 min cycle channel flipping lower and the channel bottom being tested here at 36.26. 36.20 is key support, below which the intraday picture should confirm bearish for the 30 and 60 min cycles. I also expect the toppy daily cycle upphase to stall below that level.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 10:22:21 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 10:17:48 AM

Short-term OEX bears want to see the OEX continue to produce 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 553.79 and would like to see closes beneath the line currently at 553.13.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 10:17:18 AM

Swing trade short alert ... for the QQQQ $36.30 here, stop $36.60, target $35.60.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 10:16:59 AM

The OEX is about to retest the morning's low, as the first fifteen-minute close beneath a certain Keltner level suggested it would do. There's potential support here, maybe enough for another bounce, but resistance may be increasing. Just slightly so far.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 10:15:50 AM

There's a potential regular H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart, but the neckline is right at potentially firm five-minute Keltner support, near 553.13.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 10:14:24 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 10:13:19 AM

As the first 15-minute close suggested, the OEX heads down to rest this morning's low. Keltner support ranges from 552.77-553.13. Either that support or the 554-ish resistance needs to break to get a bigger move going. A 15-minute close beneath that 552.77-553.13 level would suggest a downside Keltner target of 550.44, and I'd suggest that bears have profit-protecting plans in place in case that level is tested or approached. Remember that target has not yet been set on a 15-minute Keltner basis, however.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 10:09:57 AM

The OEX did produce another 15-minute close below the Keltner lines that are currently at 553.99 and 554.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 10:09:21 AM

Session high for ten year notes just now on a spike, with TNX down 1.4 bps at 4.111% currently.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 10:07:18 AM

Nymex June crude reopens, -.50 at 48.10, on a session low.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 10:06:09 AM

QQQQ update at this Link , pulling back from below yesterday's high, current session high 36.47.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 10:04:40 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 10:02:36 AM

Volume breadth is mixed, with advancing shares beating declining on the NYSE 1.14:1, while declining shares lead on the Nasdaq 1.23:1. The TRIN and TRINQ are both in neutral bullish territory at .69 and .84 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 10:01:26 AM

Advdec line climbing.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 9:59:44 AM

The OEX is attempting to close the second 15-minute period above the Keltner lines now at just about 554, but, if so, the close will be only minimally above that level. Next Keltner resistance at 555.20-555.82, and next support at 552.83-553.11.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 9:59:38 AM

VXN.X 18.97 +1.01% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 18.45, 18.64, Piv= 18.95, 19.15, 19.46. WEEKLY Pivot levels ... 16.44, 17.51, 18.40, 19.47, 20.36.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 9:57:34 AM

VIX.X 15.71 +0.19% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 15.09, 15.42, Piv= 16.09, 16.42, 17.09.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 9:56:05 AM

Oil ... U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman saying oil companies say market fundamentals justify $40 oil.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 9:55:19 AM

The Fed has announced an overnight repo of 9B, for a net drain of 8.5B against the 17.5B expiring.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 9:53:06 AM

There's a potential inverse H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart, in addition to the one on the daily chart. The 15-minute chart's shoulder level is down near 550.20-550.50, so if I were in a bearish play and that level was tested, I'd have profit-protecting plans in place, perhaps including taking partial profits at that point and lowering stops to breakeven. No guarantee it will drop.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 9:48:47 AM

Gold is holding a 1.2 gain at 420.70, silver +.09 at 7.04, with miners green for a change, HUI +1.67% at 169.24 and XAU +1.33% at 79.81.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 9:48:16 AM

First OEX 15-minute close below the Keltner lines currently near 554.00. This suggests another test of the day's low, at least, although first-of-the-morning moves are sometimes suspect.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 9:46:31 AM

Telephone Data Systems (TDS) $38.22 +0.07% ... released for trade.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 9:45:21 AM

QQQQ breaks the 72 period SMA here, testing the 30 min channel top at 35.43, above which yesterday's high and the 60 min channel top are next resistance: Link

Jane Fox : 5/17/2005 9:44:20 AM

This just in from TS Currently, we are experiencing an issue affecting the delivery of data for certain indices such as $TICK, $UVOL, $DVOL, $TVOL, $ADV, $DECL, $UNCH, and others. We are working to resolve this issue as quickly as possible. We will be sending an update when we have more information.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 9:41:35 AM

Here's my problem. I'm more bearish than bullish until the OEX stops trending lower, at least. However, the OEX may be trying to form an inverse H&S on its daily chart, with the right-shoulder depth down to about 546.50 currently. That means that the OEX could trade in a choppy fashion while it tries to finish off that right shoulder, even if it's going to eventually confirm the formation or reject it. Still, even over the short-term today, as long as the advdec line is as negative as it is and isn't too excessive, which it isn't yet, I remain more bearish than bullish over the very short-term, too.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 9:39:05 AM

The first retracement of the day should begin in a few minutes. Bears want to see the OEX close that first 15-minute period below 553.99-554.02.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 9:38:26 AM

QQQQ is at a session high of 37.37, 2 cents below the 72 period SMA. The Fed has a whopping 17.5B in various repos expiring today, and the 10AM announcement will let us know whether they'll be draining from or maintaining the current high levels of liquidity in the market. There's a 12B 4-week t-bill auction today as well, the results of which are expected at 1PM.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 9:38:33 AM

Taser Intl. (TASR) $11.17 -4.36% ... delays quarterly report while it finishes revising last year's annual report to correct miscalculated tax amounts. The company said earnings for the quarter ended March 31 were $168,000, or break even, compared to $3.6 million, or $0.06 per share the year before. Separately, TASR said it received an order from British law-enforcement agencies for more than $390,000 of Taser weapons and accessories.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 9:31:54 AM

Advdec line very negative in the first few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 9:31:41 AM

OEX turning down to test the 552.92 Keltner support. Bears want to see a first 15-minute close below the line currently at 554.04.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 9:31:58 AM

Home Depot (HD) $37.37 Link ... higher at $39.00 after the building products retailer reported a 14% increase in Q1 profits. The Dow component said profits rose to $1.24 billion, or $0.57 a share, from $1.1 billion, or $0.49 per share in the same period last year. Analysts were expecting a profit of $0.55 per share.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 9:24:08 AM

Treasuries bounced on the weak industrial production number, with TNX currently -.5 bps at 4.12%. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 9:25:09 AM

Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) $2.06 Link ... #3 most active at $2.51 after company said results from its feasibility clinical trial conducted with the Institut de Terapia Regenerativa Tisular in Barceloa, Spain to evealuate the use of the company's Tissue Repair Cells (TRCs) for the treatment of severe long bone non-union fractures showed patients exhibiting clinical function healing with 5 of 6 treatments showing bone regeneration at the fracture site within 6 months.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 9:18:36 AM

Yesterday, investors in OEX stocks sent the OEX higher, parking it just below the 200-sma, with the 200-ema not too far ahead, either. The 200-sma is at 555.61 and the 200-ema at 556.84. On a daily Keltner basis, the OEX closed above a Keltner line at 554.41, stabilizing the smallest Keltner channel on the daily chart. Resistance still looks far stronger than support on the daily Keltner chart, but that doesn't preclude the OEX from heading up to retest that resistance, now at 558.40-563.02.

Such a move would send the OEX up into that long-term 555.60-563.30-ish zone in which it usually begins exhibiting choppy trading behavior. It did when it first headed into that zone again in early May.

Since falling off the March low, the OEX has followed a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Until that changes, the OEX remains in a downtrend, and long plays remain countertrend ones. They might be explosive and break through multiple layers of resistance, but until the OEX breaks to a new swing high before reaching a new swing low, it's still in a downtrend.

Until that happens, then, looking for bounce-and-rollover plays seems the safest policy. I didn't see one develop yesterday, instead watching as the OEX inched up toward Keltner resistance that the BIX and RLX charged through first thing yesterday morning. As the day ended, the OEX was headed into Keltner resistance now at 555.66, that old 555.60-ish area, but perhaps not before a retest of 554.12. Support was strengthening, and it would take a 15-minute close beneath 554.12 to weaken the OEX and a close beneath 553.04 to change the short-term outlook.

To further cloud the picture, that daily close was a "just barely" close above the Keltner line needed to stabilize the smallest Keltner channel. It was tentative. To mix things up a little more, there's potential for an inverse H&S on the OEX's daily chart. If the OEX is forming an inverse H&S, then it might still have some right-shoulder-building to do, chopping around near 447-550 to form it. We'll see what sets up. As of yesterday's close, I didn't yet see a bounce-and-rollover entry that's low risk, but if the cash markets open in accordance with the lower futures this morning, there could be one. The problem is that markets could just dive from the open and those wanting a new bearish trade could miss it, if they didn't enter yesterday at the close or today at the open. Charts suggest about equal chances of heading slightly higher and heading slightly lower, but perhaps finding support slightly lower, so I can't call it this morning ahead of the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 9:17:12 AM

This morning's light decline has the 30 min and 60 min cycles on sell signals and the daily cycle on a stochastic bearish kiss. Any further downside in the first hour will suggest the end of the daily cycle upphase, with 36.20 QQQQ support the obvious first goal for daily cycle bears. Currently, 30 and 60 min channel support line up at 36.30, but those levels should begin to decline so long as price holds below the 72 period SMA at 36.40. Resistance above that is at yesterday's high.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 9:16:16 AM





Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 9:24:43 AM

Exide Technologies (XIDE) $11.68 Link ... #2 most active at $5.78 after company said late yesterday that it expects to be in violation of its minimum consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization and leverage ratio fincancial covenants of its $365 million senior credit facility. The lead-acid battery maker/recycler said it's working with the administrative agent for its senior credit facility to secure amendments to the covenants.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 9:10:07 AM

June crude oil is at a session low of 48.35, -.25 or .51%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/17/2005 9:01:30 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Co. has their computers set for program buying at $+2.81 and set for selling at $-0.17.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 8:56:52 AM

20 minutes until the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization numbers.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 8:33:40 AM

Bonds dived initial and are ticking back up, TNX now up 3 bps at 4.153 and breaking yesterday's high, whule equities are holding their earlier losses, QQQQ -.15 at 36.33. Gold reached a low of 419.5, currently back to 420.10, +.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 8:31:55 AM

PPI +.6% vs. .2% exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 8:31:25 AM









Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 8:24:07 AM

Bonds are holding their light losses approaching the 8:30 data, TNX quoted higher by 1.9 bps at 4.144%, at the top of yesterday's range.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/17/2005 7:26:51 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1163.5, NQ 1476, YM 10226 and QQQQ -.16 at 36.32. Gold is up 1.20 at 420.70, silver +.049 at 6.999, ten year notes -1/16 at 111 29/32, and crude oil -.025 at 48.575.

We await the 8:30 release of the PPI and Core PPI for April, est. .4% and .2% respectively, Housing Starts & Building Permits, est. 2M and 2.043M, and at 9:45, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, est. .2% and 79.5% respectively.

Linda Piazza : 5/17/2005 7:06:52 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei fell to its lowest number since mid-December as preliminary GDP surprised to the upside, but the deflator and other components showed troubling tendencies. Most other Asian markets declined, as do most European markets this morning. Our futures turn lower, too, ahead of this morning's economic numbers. As of 5:41 EST, gold was up $1.60, and crude, up $0.16 to $48.77. Today, the U.S. government will release its research related to the yuan, with a delicate balancing act needed to avoid causing the Chinese government to further dig in its heels about the yuan's re-valuation so that it won't be perceived as cratering to foreign pressure. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Tuesday morning, the Nikkei tried its best to make up for some of Monday's losses by gapping higher, but the gains weren't to last long. The preliminary January-March quarter GDP rose 1.3% over the previous quarter, much higher than the expected 0.6-1.0%. The annualized rate was 5.3%. Almost all the strength was derived from a 1.2% gain in private consumption and a 2.0% climb in private capital expenditures. Inventories rose, with some interpreting that as a sign of inventories accumulating, a negative sign. Private housing investment and public investment declined. External demand fell with exports dropping 0.2%. The GDP deflator fell 1.2%, a bigger drop than had been predicted. Although economic minister Takenaka claimed that the GDP showed a recovering economy, that GDP deflator may have argued against his conclusion, showing deflationary pressures still in place. After the initial pop higher, the Nikkei trended lower all day, closing lower by 121.83 points or 1.11%, closing at 10,825.39. This was its lowest close since mid-December, unless I missed a lower close when searching historical prices.

Domestic-demand related issues erased early gains to fall. Real-estate related issues also dropped. Toyota was one bright spot, rising 0.8%.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but with more declining than climbing. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.54%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.21%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.51%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.44%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.38%, however.

Most European markets decline. In the U.K., April's CPI was under the key 2% rate, but some developments lead economists to conclude that both the quarterly and annualized yearly growth will exceed that desired 2% cap in the next quarter. Strong earnings results by key companies kept the FTSE 100 slightly in positive territory, although only slightly. Oil majors gained in the U.K. and also throughout Europe as crude turned higher again. Airlines, however, turned lower.

M&A Monday was postponed until today in Europe. TLC Communications will buy the 45% stake in a mobile handset joint venture that Alcatel previously owned. Alcatel's shares didn't benefit, however, as the company agreed to employ the 360 employees working at a French unit for 18 months. Dassault Systemes will buy analysis software provider Abaqus. These are just two of many M&A deals. In other deal-making, Dutch drug manufacturer Akzo Nobel N.V. will pay Lexicon Genetics to develop and commercialize biotherapeutic drugs. AstraZeneca benefited from a report in a medical journal that its lung cancer drug Iressa might also shrink breast cancer tumors.

Sanofi-Aventis did not benefit from an upgrade in debt rating by Moody's Investors Service, but Dutch bank and insurer did benefit from an upgrade to buy by UBS. UBS downgraded staffing agency Adecco SA and lowered the company's price target, and CSFB downgraded British outsourcing company Hays to an underperform rating.

As of 6:58 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 0.60 points or 0.01%, to 4,884.80. The CAC 40 had fallen 11.15 points or 0.28%, to 3,999.83. The DAX had fallen 22.62 points or 0.53%, to 4,239.56.

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