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Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 1:25:15 AM

BEAV is interesting. Look at the volume patterns the last 6 columns. Heavy on the move up from $8.50-$12.00, then light volume on the pullback from $11.50-$9.50, then heavier on the move back higher from $10.00-$13.00, then light on the pullback from $12.50-$10.50, now heavier on the move up from $11.00-$13.00. Like somebody's working the stock higher. PnF chart with volume turned on at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 1:17:56 AM

BE Aerospace (BEAV) $13.30 +5.47% Link made a nice move on Wednesday too! Still some room to its longer-term bullish vertical count of $20.50.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 1:16:42 AM

Defense Indx (DFX.X) 265.93 +1.39% ... closing in on all-time high again. What's driving things? Dorsey's sector bullish % would be aerospace/defense, but includes airlines, shippers like UPS Link and FDX Link as well as defense contractors. Good Gravy! See Titan Corp. (TTN) $20.03 +6.59% Link Look where Lockheed Martin (LMT) $64.84 +0.06% Link is at in this sector bell curve for aero. AERO distribution curve from Dorsey/Wright at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 12:41:13 AM

Wednesday-to-Wednesday sector bell curve comparison from Dorsey/Wright & Assoc. at this Link Wednesday morning I made note that Boise Cascade announced they had lowered their IPO price target. Most likely due to "market conditions" and sector out of favor. If 58% bullish or higher, I'd be willing to bet they'd have fetched original target range. A steel bull can't be overly aggressive and most likely bears did the bulk of buying today as they had BULK of risk at 0-14% bullish. TRANsports perking up. Lots of homeBUILders and BUILding products looking strong. I see HOV is on the OI call play list. I also see AHC, which is oil also on the list. Good thoughts there from play writer as I can sense the hesitancy. I made the MISTAKE of shorting XOM when oil above $49.42 on 05/04/05 and got stopped the next day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 11:47:18 PM

Dow e-mini (ym05m) down 4 points at 10,467. e-mini S&P (es05m) down 0.25 point at 1,186.50 e-mini NASDAQ (nq05m) up 1.0 point at 1,512.50. Fair value for the S&P 500 is $1.37, while NASDAQ fair value for tomorrow is $3.18.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 11:42:27 PM

Program Trading levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.56 and set for program selling at $+0.28. According to HL Camp & Company, program trading averaged 56.5% of the NYSE volume from 05/02/05 thru 05/06/05. Buy programs were 51.42% of the total program volume, while sell programs were 48.58%. Pure index arbitrage (which creates the buy/sell premiums) was 10.9% of the total program trading volume.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 11:38:48 PM

Out of Office I will be out of my office starting Thursday evening after the market close until Tuesday evening (05/24/05).

OI Technical Staff : 5/18/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 9:50:19 PM

e-mini Dow (ym05m) down 9 points at 10,462. WEEKLY R2 not yet tested at 10,516. See multiple correlation in Pivot Matrix for cash.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 9:48:19 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 9:03:53 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Bullish swing trade call for one (1) United Parcel Service UPS Oct. $75 Call (UPS-JO) at the offer of $3.70. Bullish swing trade round up to 3/4 position for shares of Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) at the offer of $36.28. Bearish swing trade put stopped and closed out the two (2) General Motors GM Sep. $30 Puts (GM-UF) at $2.70. ($-0.80, or -22.86%) Bullish day trade and carrying overnight shares of SanDisk (SNDK) at the offer of $25.71, stop $25.49, and targeting $26.39.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 8:38:50 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 8:37:55 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 3:56:45 PM

The OEX pierced the top of that 555.60-563.30-ish long-term S/R zone, but may be closing back within it. Touch and go into the close.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 3:54:12 PM

QQQQ will head out with the daily, 60 min and 30 min cycles maxxed out to the upside and actually showing bearish stochastic kisses, while the short cycle points lower, partway through a so-far weak downphase. The sell signals in the longer timeframes are too young to know for sure whether they're indicating bullish trending or a merely delayed synchronous downphase. If price doesn't decline more than the slight pullbacks we've been seeing this afternoon, then the benefit of the doubt should go to the bulls. 30 and 60 min channel support line up at 37.07 QQQQ currently, with light confluence at 37.00.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 3:46:58 PM

The OEX tested the confirmation level for its potential double-top formation, but it bounced right back up again. It's teetering right on the breakout level, threatening to fall lower, perhaps converting support to resistance, but it hasn't done it quite yet.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 3:41:47 PM

DIA $104.88, SPY $118.83, QQQQ $37.23

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 3:41:21 PM

Buy Program Premium ...

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 3:39:45 PM

37.20 QQQQ is being tested, with price breaking below the 72 SMA on a burst of volume: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 3:38:44 PM

A drop much below 418 would confirm a double-top formation on the SOX.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 3:37:28 PM

An OEX drop below 562.77 would confirm a double-top in the OEX, and would suggest a downside target of almost two points. Keltner-wise, the OEX is still sinking through some of those layers of Keltner support on the 15-minute chart, but the resistance hasn't completely firmed up.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 3:30:52 PM

QQQQ's testing 72 SMA support here for the first time since this morning on a sharp sell candle. Has yet to break it though, support at 37.25.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 3:28:09 PM

It might be significant to note that the dollar has trended lower all day, and has still not changed its trend of lower highs and lower lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 3:27:47 PM

Session low for Nymex June crude at 46.975.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 3:28:34 PM

United Parcel (UPS) $74.90 +1.32% ... off its session high of $75.38. Looking for new bulls to "top off the tank" toward the close. May "Max Pain Theory" right here at $75.00. October Max Pain Theory currently tabulated at $70 ($5 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 3:25:37 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,607 +2.6% ... edge to session high.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 3:25:06 PM

The SOX tests its previous HOD, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 3:22:17 PM

Crude oil reopens, -.225 at 47.025.

Volume breadth has strengthened for the Nasdaq, now 4.22 advancing shares for each declining, on the NYSE 5.06:1, with strong volume of 111.2M QQQQ shares. NYSE volume is 1.45B, 1.66B on QQQQ, already exceeding yesterday's totals.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 3:19:08 PM

QQQQ ... still looking, but think it was QQQQ $37.41 large block. Sometime in February?

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 3:17:27 PM

SPY $118.90 +1.11% ... I see notes in my Trader's Almanac that I noted a large block billed out at $118.17 the night of 04/05/05. That's just about right at this morning's gap higher open of $118.07.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 3:15:04 PM

Dialing down to a three-minute Keltner chart on the OEX, the OEX looks balanced between equally weighted nearby support and nearby resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 3:14:55 PM

Large Block alerts ... need to go back and check some note, but if memory serves me correct, both the DIA and QQQQ should be nearing some large block alerts I issued a couple of months ago.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 3:10:45 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 3:07:09 PM

Dialing down to a three-minute chart, the SOX looks weaker than it did earlier. A three-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 420.13 would change that outlook somewhat.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 3:03:35 PM

Ten year note yields finished lower by 4.9 bps at 4.068%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 3:02:41 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 3:01:34 PM

The SOX moves up toward that 420-423 S/R zone again.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 2:58:23 PM

Slight new high for the OEX.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 2:57:25 PM

QQQQ has drfited above 37.30, breaking the descending triangle resistance line and the previous bounce hig, now 8 cents below the session high. Volume has yet to pick up on the break, but price is rising, with the short cycle oscillators ticking up. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 2:52:52 PM

TRAN inching above 3600 again, testing the day's high.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 2:49:36 PM

So much for the SOX's five-minute 21-ema providing resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 2:41:59 PM

10 Most Actives ... QQQQ $37.25 +1.49%, JDSU $1.50 +5.63%, AMAT $15.82 -1.37%, SPY $118.83 +1.07%, INTC $25.89 +0.70%, MSFT $25.73 +1.06%, CSCO $19.28 +1.20%, LU $2.91 +1.39%, ORCL $12.29 +0.65%, HPQ $22.67 +5.19%

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 2:40:57 PM

The SOX's five-minute 21-ema is beginning to serve as resistance. With a ten-minute exception this morning, this average has been bouncing the OEX higher since mid-afternoon yesterday. The 21-ema is now at 418.61 and the SOX is at 418.47. This is a first mild change in trend.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 2:32:39 PM

Nymex crude looks to have closed -1.675 at 47.30, subject to any last minute settlements. Updated 50 tick chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 2:28:46 PM

Unfortunately for bears, the current decline has reflected itself as a short cycle downphase in the oscillators. Given the extremely narrow range of the decline off the session highs and the inability to break 37.20 support, the corrective short cycle downphase should be followed by another strong upphase on a break of 37.30. A break of either leg of the 37.20-37.30 range should be directional, but the decline off the highs isn't looking good for bears so far. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 2:23:54 PM

The TRAN tries for a retest of the day's high, unlike another indicator index, the SOX, now sinking into Keltner support.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 2:20:28 PM

Leading the way, the SOX is sinking into Keltner support. Now we have to see if former support forms above the current price, firming up resistance. If there's a quick thrust below 417.24 and then the bounce can't close back above 417.50-418.50, then there may be a sign that the SOX is ready for a pullback. Have to see how it goes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 2:20:21 PM

Filled on two (2) of the General Motors GM Sep $30 Puts (GM-UF) at $2.75 in personal account.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 2:10:52 PM

The OEX is attempting to hold support above the breakout level on the 15-minute Keltner channel. Support continues to soften.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 2:10:01 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 2:03:05 PM

QQQQ testing 37.20 support again from a lower high. If this is a descending triangle, then break of 37.20 should be accompanied by a burst of volume. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 2:02:46 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 2:01:07 PM

It's interesting to see WMT (+.77% at 47.36) underperforming the broader market in this rally that launched on the release of yesterday's semiannual Treasury report on the currencies. The light stance on the Yuan peg was immediately bought, yet WMT, which stands in the frontline of any currency or tarriff risk with China, is being bought less aggresssively than the market indices.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 2:00:27 PM

That dollar/equity inverse relationship that Jonathan sometimes points out has been holding today, with the dollar trending down all day while the equities move higher.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 1:59:38 PM

The SOX is sinking into its Keltner support zone, as I suspect the OEX might do. The SOX's Keltner support actually looked a bit firmer than the OEX's had. That support for the SOX goes down to 417.20, but weakens below that. I would suspect that it will hold on 15-minute closes on the first test, and it's after that, that we'll see what happens.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 1:55:45 PM

S&P Insurance ($IUX.X) 303.86 -0.11% ... slips red.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 1:51:52 PM

The TRAN, RLX and BIX all still maintain their Keltner breakout signals, too. Waiting for a change, but haven't seen one yet.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 1:50:12 PM

The OEX comes down to retest Keltner support again, with that support still looking firm but not firm enough to prevent the OEX from sinking at least partway into the wide 561.17-563.11 support zone. After that, support really thins.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 1:49:04 PM

The SOX has touched 420, with a HOD of 420.57, in that 420-423 S/R zone. This would be an appropriate place for a pullback on the SOX, but it's passed up many an appropriate place for a pullback without doing so.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 1:46:40 PM

QQQQ is hesitating below the prior high, with the short cycle channel ticking lower. However, 37.20 support, just 7 cents away, has yet to break, and I'd be inclined to distrust any weakness above that level at minimum. 1st confirmation of weakness will come on a break of the 72 SMA at 37.10.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 1:43:46 PM

The OEX bounced from first possible Keltner support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 1:43:11 PM

Bullish day trade long alert for SanDisk (SNDK) $25.71 here, stop $25.49, target $26.30 to the close (go for an "upper keltner" on 30-min at $26.39)

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 1:33:06 PM

Swing trade put stop alert ... on the two (2) General Motors GM Sep. $30 Puts (GM-UF) at the bid of $2.70. GM $31.42 +1.88% here. While stock is below put entry benchmark, we've been "implied volatilitied."

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 1:27:59 PM

Bears are looking for a lower high on the bounce here to confirm any kind of weakness on the maxxed out intraday cycles. 37.20 QQQQ support has held so far, with price reacting back up. Volume breadth is still very strong, 6.78:1 adv:decv on the NYSE and 3.96:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 1:26:25 PM

The OEX is coming down to test that Keltner support, support that has been softening somewhat, enough that the OEX can perhaps sink down into it before being stopped. Would then like to see resistance line firm up.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 1:25:47 PM

Crude thoughts ... updated 30-minute interval chart of June Crude Oil (cl05m) at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 1:23:58 PM

Just noticed. At the HOD, the OEX almost touched the 564.81 value that marks a 50% retracement of the drop off the March high. Significant that the OEX found resistance there? Perhaps.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 1:22:35 PM

The advdec line is now +3500. The last time it was this high was November 17. That was a short-term top, with markets closing off their highs of the day, but it wasn't the top. Far from it. Also, November 3, there had been another +3500 day in the advdec line. Markets also closed off their high of the day, but shot up again the next day, into that November 17 value. So, there's short-term danger building, but we can't draw too many conclusions other than that.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 1:17:03 PM

Session highs for gold and silver, +2 at 421.90 and +.185 at 7.23 respectively. HUI is up 2.92% at 175.27, XAU +2.83% at 82.83.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 1:16:45 PM

Maybe that bearish advance block pattern on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart was saying something, because we have a relatively rare (for today) red candle just having been completed. However, there's support gathering from 561.85-562.85. Bears wanting a rollover signal would like to see a drop followed by a retest of former resistance, with Keltner or other signs that the resistance was holding.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 1:12:40 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 1:12:14 PM

QQQQ chart update at this Link . 72 SMA support is up to 37.00 here, with first support at 37.20.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 1:11:46 PM

Okay, my first candlestick search was for the bearish advance block pattern, and the OEX's 15-minute pattern almost met that with the candle completed about 12 minutes ago. The only difference is that the candles should each open within the body of the previous one. Otherwise, it met the parameters--three candles closing higher than the previous one, but each showing upper shadows.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 1:08:58 PM

Nymex crude is .55 above its low, here -1.075 at 47.90. Ten year note yields are down 4 bps at 4.077%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 1:03:03 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 1:01:14 PM

Bollinger resistance for QQQQ on the daily chart was at 36.95, with the bulk of today's candle printed above it. On the 30 min chart, it's at 37.26, lined up with upper keltner resistance. These are overbought readings across the timeframes, and appear to be trending under the influence of the broader weekly cycle that has channel resistance up at 38.75. Volume remains very strong, 78.9M shares traded so far, with breadth also strong but not extreme or unbalanced.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 12:58:51 PM

OEX Keltner support now just below the OEX's current position and then at 562.39. By now, all the shorts must be so anxious to cover that any dip could be met with another bounce. So far, there's still no Keltner evidence of a pullback, although all 15-minute candles now have upper shadows, and I'm thinking I need to be checking the candlestick glossary to see if we've got some kind of bearish reversal signal going on.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 12:53:21 PM

DIA $104.82 +1.28% ... session high of $104.95 just shy of its MONTHLY R1 ($105.04). Sell some naked June 107 calls? I don't know... "upper Keltner" on 60-min at $106.00. "Upper Kelnter" on 30-min right here at $104.93. My observations is that 30-min Keltners have not provided the resistance that bears would have liked. MONTHLY R1 put up some resistance for the Q's, but when broken, all he-double-toothpicks broke lose as computer turned to massive buyers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 12:45:26 PM

SPY $118.83 +1.29% ... MONTHLY R1 here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 12:41:24 PM

QQQQ $37.25 +1.49% ... session high and "upper keltner" on 60-minute interval chart. WEEKLY R2 just violated here.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 12:40:18 PM

QQQQ and NQ are printing highs here, 30 min channel resistance to 1513 and 37.21 respectively. Price is just walking up the upper keltner (and bollinger) bands on strong volume. The 72 SMA is up to 36.95. Once again, the pullbacks are only pauses with no traction pricewise.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 12:38:43 PM

The OEX now has Keltner support at 563.02 but a bit more strongly near 562.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 12:30:11 PM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $37.18 +1.30%, AMAT $15.78 -1.62%, JDSU $1.49 +4.92%, SPY $118.77 +1.01%, INTC $25.94 +0.93%, CSCO $19.22 +0.83%, MSFT $25.72 +1.02%, LU $2.92 +2.09%, ORCL $12.35 +1.14%, XLE $39.22 -0.25%

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 12:29:33 PM

The SOX so far maintains its breakout signal on the 15-minute Keltner channels. Support gathers from 415.31-417.01. It may be oh-so-slightly less firm than it was earliers.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 12:24:34 PM

No pullback for QQQQ, with volume breadth firming on both exchanges, ADV:DECV now 5.74:1 on the NYSE and 3.47:1 on the Nasdaq. The TRIN and TRINQ are both in neutral bullish territory, not showing anything approaching extreme readings. Similarly, the put to call ratio is at .90 as of the most recent reading.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 12:21:46 PM

Bullish swing trade round up alert ... adding another 60 shares (brings total position to 200, roughly 3/4 position) for Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $36.28 +1.68% here.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 12:21:03 PM

The OEX is now at the top of that 555.60-563.30-ish long-term S/R zone.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 12:20:34 PM

And there goes the TRAN up toward the 50-dma and the 3600 S/R zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 12:12:01 PM

QQQQ just poked its head above the upper 30 min keltner band, back above it as I type. Unless price is going to simply melt up vertically from here, the upper keltner break, the first today, should see sellers push back right here. If they don't, then we're looking at a very bullish 30 min and daily cycle trending move. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 12:10:42 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 12:02:37 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 12:01:55 PM

Session low for Nymex crude, -1.575 at 47.40, -3.22% today.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 12:01:13 PM

The TRAN heads toward the top of the top of the QCharts-drawn rising regression channel, 3600 S/R,and the 50-dma at 3598.33. The TRAN is at 3577.88 as I type, having already gained more than 60 points today, but so far, it maintains its Keltner breakout signal. Still watching the TRAN for clues.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 11:56:48 AM

The Nasdaq's volume breadth has caught up to the NYSE's, which pulled back- currently advancing volume leads declining 3.88:1 on the NYSE, 3.02:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 11:54:51 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 11:51:36 AM

Still nothing to do but for bulls to keep following the OEX higher with their stops. Although "following the OEX higher" might be a bit of a misnomer just now, since it's not moving much higher, but mostly just consolidating. No pullback yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 11:51:02 AM

So far, where the pullbacks should be, QQQQ only pauses on light volume. The 30 min channel top has climbed to 37.10, 72 SMA support to 36.88. This continues to look like very bullish price action at what the daily and intraday oscillators suggest should be a top- but they've been suggesting that for most of the morning. Updated chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 11:40:31 AM

United Parcel Service (UPS) $74.62 +0.94% ... daily interval bar chart with similar "conventional" retracement as shown with TRAN at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 11:38:58 AM

The OEX still hasn't pulled back, despite my impression earlier that it looked primed for a pullback. Supporting lines have separated, so that none converge and it's not easy to find the one Keltner line that's going to support the OEX. So, support softens and the OEX still looks ready for a pullback. With breakouts still growing strong on the RLX, BIX, TRAN and SOX, it might not happen, though. Some of those need to pull back, too, before the OEX does.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 11:27:16 AM

QQQQ update at this Link testing 37 resistance with the 30 min channel top rising now to 37.05 and 72 SMA support to 36.85. The 30 min cycle oscillators are due to either top or trend up here- but so far, price has been extremely firm.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 11:27:09 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,574.70 +1.64% ... big reversal taking place here. Friday's low would have tested my "forecasted" bullish support trend on point and figure chart (see Wednesday's wrap Link ) Updated bar chart at this Link

Tab Gilles : 5/18/2005 11:26:16 AM

$SOX That 420 resistance level looks likely to tested again. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 11:25:30 AM

The SOX still has apparently massive Keltner support at 415.41-415.77. A fall beneath that would convert it to possible resistance, but so far, it's holding.

Tab Gilles : 5/18/2005 11:22:21 AM

Murphy Oil MUR 10 and 60 minute charts. Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 11:19:41 AM

Volume breadth has declined, 4.81:1 NYSE advancing shares over decliners, 2.79:1 for the Nasdaq with the TRIN up to .74 and the TRINQ .88, despite little downside in price so far.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 11:15:10 AM

So far, the OEX is finding support on the Keltner line currently at 561.24. On a 15-minute close below this line, next support is 560.09 and then 558.60-558.94.

Tab Gilles : 5/18/2005 11:14:10 AM

$GSO, MSFT, CTXS A quick look at the software sector. Link Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 11:10:41 AM

Crude oil breaks 48, down to a low of 47.75 just now. QQQQ is holding steady above 36.95, current high 36.98.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 11:10:32 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 11:07:42 AM

Here's what I'd like to see on a Keltner basis: I'd like to see the OEX fall to 558.60-559.00, then stay there long enough for Keltner resistance to firm somewhere between 560-561.50. Then I'd like to see the OEX bounce back up there and get stopped below that resistance, with some kind of bearish divergence visible. That would make me feel better about suggesting there might be a rollover. Wouldn't it be nice if we always got our ideal setup? Strangely enough, sometimes we do. Let's see today if we do.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 11:02:21 AM

Headlines from the American Petroleum Institute:

API: U.S. CRUDE SUPPLIES UP 2.5 MILLION BARRELS

API: GASOLINE SUPPLIES DOWN 317,000 BARRELS

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 11:01:46 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 11:00:39 AM

The OEX pulls back off its day's high, toward the daily 100/130-ema's, at 560.52 and 559.90. These might provide at least temporary support. Bulls don't want to see the OEX sustain values back below those averages.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 10:58:57 AM

The SOX looks as if it's aimed for the 420-423 S/R zone, but I'd expect longs to start getting nervous any time now.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 10:56:51 AM

Session low for Nymex crude, now -.85 at 48.125.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 10:56:09 AM

Here's what the SOX's 15-minute Keltner chart shows: The SOX is still in breakout mode. Lots of Keltner support at lines currently from 414.66-415.29. If the SOX should be driven below that support, it will likely be converted to resistance, but so far, it's holding above it.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 10:54:12 AM

Bonds are drifting off their highs, TNX slowly rising and now up to a 5.5 bp loss at 4.062%. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 10:58:22 AM

Taser Intl. (TASR) $10.66 +2.38% ... after morning weakness and near kiss of $10.00. DAILY Pivot here at $10.68 provides intra-day resistance. Stock was weak yesterday after company said it was delaying filing of quarterly report with SEC and full year 2004 relating to "calculation of the future tax benefit to be received from employees' sale of stock received from the exercise of stock options, and other tax effects of stock option exercises."

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 10:49:32 AM

I think there's going to be an OEX pullback, but that pullback could be shallow. There's no way to know from a Keltner basis, at least.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 10:48:51 AM

The OEX just barely held onto the breakout level into the end of the current 15-minute period, but I don't know that I'd call that gravestone doji sufficient proof of an upside breakout. Rather, it's a signal to be watchful for a pullback. I'd like to see a pullback and retest, with Keltner resistance strengthening on the retest, before considering a bearish play. That may not happen, though, and that ideal pattern might not come before a real reversal does. There's just not enough Keltner evidence yet to suggest a bearish play. Right now, nearest support is at 561.02, with next at 559.78 and then stronger at 558.52.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 10:46:35 AM

A session low for Nymex crude just printed at 48.60, -.375. 50 tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 10:41:29 AM

Advdec line now above 3000. A bit excessive, as I said earlier, but no sign of a downturn yet in equities. Still watching.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 10:40:17 AM

QQQQ chart update at this Link , trending higher with potential bearish divergences on the short cycle indicators. However, they're only potential if/until 36.80 actually breaks.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 10:40:00 AM

The OEX may have trouble maintaining that breakout signal into the close of this 15-minute period. Still some time left, but it's currently leaving a shadow behind.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 10:37:14 AM

SOX still balancing on those daily 100/130-ema's.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 10:37:06 AM

Bullish swing trade call option alert for United Parcel Service Link and one (1) UPS Oct. $75 Call (UPS-JO) at the offer of $3.70. UPS $74.46 +0.73% here.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 10:36:51 AM

The OEX is attempting an upside breakout out of its 15-minute Keltner channels. A 15-minute close above the line currently at 561.38 will do it. Keltners were designed to identify breakout plays, so this isn't necessarily a sign that a bearish play is imminent, but it is a sign that risk is shifting onto the shoulders of the bulls and they should follow the OEX higher with their stops. The advdec line is getting a bit excessive, so we're either in for a whole day of excessive exuberance or this is a contrarian signal. Wish I knew which it was, but I don't yet,and Keltners are not giving any reversal signals just yet. Bulls, keep following the OEX higher with your stops, and perhaps consider taking partial profit. Have profit-protecting plans in mind for 563-563.50 or so, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 10:35:14 AM

There are now 8.57 advancing NYSE shares for each declining, the Nasdaq much more tame at 2.45:1. The TRIN is down to .51, TRINQ .68.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 10:33:39 AM

Nymex crude oil now down .125 at 48.85. QQQQ broke the high, with 30 min channel resistance rising to 37 and 72 SMA support to 36.80.

Tab Gilles : 5/18/2005 10:31:34 AM

EIA inventories continue to build.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 10:31:55 AM

Crude inventories +4.34M barrels vs. 1M exp.

Distillates -219K vs. +1 exp.

Gasoline +1.07M barrels vs. +980K exp.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 10:30:57 AM

Buy Program Premium ...

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 10:29:47 AM

Nymex crude +.275 at 49.25 ahead of the inventory data.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 10:25:39 AM

And the SOX still balances above its daily 100/130-ema's.

As we head into inventories numbers, the TRAN is another of the indices that today challenges its daily 100/130-ema's, and these averages also are important in the TRAN's trading behavior. It obviously can and does trade across them, but they tend to mark daily highs or lows, closes or opens. They're at 3568.92 and 3549.62, respectively, with the TRAN at 3562.93 as I type.

Tab Gilles : 5/18/2005 10:25:31 AM

Taking a look at the $CRB Commodity Index in relation to the $USD and the Basic Materials sector $XLB. Link Link Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 10:24:07 AM

ADV:DEC shares are currently 6.17:1 for the NYSE and 2.05:1 for the Nasdaq with the TRIN .64 and the TRINQ .91, both in neutral bullish territory. Gold and silver are positive but off their highs, with the miners outperforming, HUI +1.98% at 173.57 and XAU +1.79% at 81.99.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 10:23:28 AM

The OEX still challenges upper Keltner resistance, with that resistance currently at 561.28. Support lines turn sharply higher, and may be firming up near 557.20-558.69. There's support at 560.18, too, support that has been holding so far, but it might not be strong support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 10:17:19 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link ... Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 10:15:37 AM

QQQQ tagged the previous high without breaking it. 30 min channel resistance rose to 36.95. A higher low on the pullback here is not what bears need. 36.70 is key support below.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 10:15:33 AM

Here's why I'm watching the SOX's daily 100/130-ema's, with a sustained decline beneath them needed, I think, before we believe a real pullback is getting started: Link

Tab Gilles : 5/18/2005 10:29:16 AM

Followup to $NASI charts, May 4th..... Link

currently... Link

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 10:11:53 AM

I agree, Marc, about the SOX's resistance. So far, though, it's balancing on those daily 100/130-ema's at 409.32 and 411.48.

Tab Gilles : 5/18/2005 10:09:55 AM

Rally Continues!

Now Merril Lynch is bullish on tech?

Back on 5/4 8:27AM post I stated that one of my major timing charts had signaled BUY on the $COMPQ. Link

Current chart....$COMPQ has since gained 100 points or +5%. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 10:09:04 AM

VIX.X 13.65 -6.31% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 13.31, 13.93, Piv= 15.07, 15.69, 16.82.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 10:07:49 AM

The OEX again pushes higher against the upper Keltner resistance, currently at 561.18. This is near the 561.23 level that is the 38.2% retracement of the entire bear-market decline.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 10:07:18 AM

I'm watching QQQQ continue to struggle to regain its 72 SMA, while the NQ futures hold above it, bouncing from 1493. Direction is still up for grabs. The put to call ratio is relatively high at .98, a possible wall of worry for bulls to climb, but the op-ex week factor can distort what is at best a secondary indicator there. Breadth remains very firm, 6.22:1 and 2.13:1 for NYSE and Nasdaq advancing shares.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 10:05:34 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 10:02:44 AM

The SOX has erased its breakout signal on the 15-minute Keltner chart.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 9:59:13 AM

The OEX has hit its daily 100/130-ema's this morning, with those averages at 560.49 and 559.92, respectively, and with the OEX currently at 559.94. These averages turned the OEX back in early May, but it took several days of trying to do it. This looks like significant resistance, but that strong advdec line sure isn't screaming "enter a bearish trade here."

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 9:59:13 AM

The Fed has announced a 7.75B overnight repo for a net drain of 1.25B against the 9B expiring from yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 9:56:31 AM

Yesterday, the SOX popped above the daily 100/130-ema's, and today, it's finding support on those averages, at 409.29 and 411.46, respectively. The SOX is currently at 413.34. Those hoping for more gains don't want to see the SOX turn below and maintain values below those averages, making yesterday's climb above them look like a mere overrunning of a target.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 9:56:43 AM

QQQQ plunged through the 72 SMA and then bounced right back to it, currently glued to the line. The 30 min cycle is toppy, as is the daily cycle, and the short cycle has already begun heading down. But the price is refusing to break. Bulls need to take out the session high at 36.88 to re-establish the uptrend, while bears need to see some selling. Until then, QQQQ remains in an uptrend. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 9:47:45 AM

Session high for ten year bonds at 112 19/32, with TNX down 7.1 bps at 4.046% here, a 1.72% decline this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 9:47:07 AM

QQQQ's just failed again to break the 36.88 high, but as yesterday, the sellers have yet to step up. The steeply rising 72 SMA is up to 36.76, and a break below that is needed to stall the 30 min cycle upphase.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 9:47:07 AM

Having some difficulty with slow charts this morning, but the OEX has hit the upside Keltner target. It has not hit the upside target based on the confirmed inverse H&S, but if I were in a bullish play, I'd still have those profit-protecting plans in mind right now. Support is currently far below, at 559.l17 and then 557.64, with not much else on a Keltner basis.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 9:43:08 AM

Big push up in the advdec line. Almost big enough to consider it excessive.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 9:39:23 AM

Volume breadth is very strong here in the opening minutes, currently 6.75 advancing NYSE shares for each declining, 3.21 advancing Nasdaqs for each declining.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 9:37:34 AM

The SOX has been challenging its 200-ema at 416.13, an average that has had some relevance in the SOX's trading behavior. In mid-March, it was the converging 100- and 200-ema's that were retarding the SOX when it tried to move up again after the tumble off February's high. The SOX is at 414.58 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 9:35:45 AM

The RLX has been on a tear, Keltner-wise. It broke out yesterday morning and has continued that breakout. This morning, it's attempting a breakout above the mid-channel level, at 423.77, with the RLX currently at 425.71, but the end of the day is a long, long way away, and so we are far from considering that particular breakout confirmed. Market bulls don't want to see the RLX crater today.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 9:34:55 AM

QQQQ chart update at this Link with 30 min channel resistance up to 36.90 and 72 period SMA support to 36.75.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 9:33:12 AM

SOX not moving much.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 9:32:47 AM

The BIX heads higher, too, toward a 363.32 upside target, with the BIX currently at 362.54.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 9:31:52 AM

And the OEX heads straight up to the 560.79 current upside target (and next resistance) on the 15-minute Keltner chart.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 9:31:09 AM

Morgan Stanley (MWD) $48.66 ... higher at $48.95. Ronald Perelman's counsel tells jurors that MWD acted in a "cold, calculated fashion" to defraud the financier when he sold his camping-gear company to bank's client Sunbeam. Opens a $1.8 bilion punitive damage case.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 9:27:59 AM

Washington ... U.S. House of Representatives approves $31.8 billion spending plan for Homeland Security Department, with nearly 2/3 of the money allocated to protecting land borders, airports and seaports and to enforce immigration laws.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 9:27:15 AM

The squeeze in ten year bonds continues, with ten year yields down a whopping 5.7 bps to 4.06%. There's confluence support to 4.04% here, not to mention the bollinger band violation occurring below 4.078%. However, as with the rise in equities, the direction of the move is clear, and until it reverses, the technicals will continue to follow along. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 9:25:54 AM

Boise Cascade Company lowering its targeted range for IPO to $17-$19 per share from indicated range of $24-$26 a share. The offering was expected to price Monday, but was delayed as company looked to gather investor support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 9:23:27 AM

Jack In the Box (JBX) $36.70 ... fast food retailer said profits rose 11% to $20.7 million, or $0.55 per share in the latest quarter, handily beating Wall Street's expectations by $0.05 per share. JBX said revenues rose 12% vs. the same period last year to $577 million. The company also raised it fiscal 2005 outlook to $2.46 per share from $2.43 per share.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 9:20:21 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.49 ... higher at $103.92. Traders that sold NAKED some DIA Jun $100 Puts (DIA-RV) yesterday may look to buy some protection at cheaper price this morning with the DIA Jun $99 Puts (DIA-RU).

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 9:16:15 AM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $16.04 ... #3 on pre-market most actives (#1 QQQQ $36.86, #2 SPY $118.08) after the chip equipment maker said late yesterday it earned $304.8 million, or $0.18 per share in its latest quarter (Q2) with revenue down 8% to $1.86 billion. Bottom line results topped estimates by a penny, but gross margins deteriorated to 44% from 46.5% vs. the same period last year.

Jeff Bailey : 5/18/2005 9:08:46 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.52 and set for program selling at $+0.10.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 9:02:14 AM

This morning, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has apparently widened the band of the USD/HK$, with some guessing that this is a prelude to a move by China to widen the yuan's trading band, letting the yuan weaken as well as strengthen.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 9:01:29 AM

The current surge appears to be the tail end of a 30 minute cycle upphase that is just approaching overbought territory for QQQQ. The current channel top is at 36.90. Yesterday afternoon's post 2:30 rally turned the 60 min cycle up as well, but it's lagging the 30 min as it usually does. A failure to break 37 resistance would likely set up a bearish divergence on the 60 min cycle, but as noted yesterday, there's nothing bearish about a continued climb in price. Bears need a break of 36.72 to stall the 30 min upphase, confirmed by a break of 36.57 to turn the intraday cycles down.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 8:56:33 AM

Yesterday, the OEX confirmed an inverse H&S on the 15-minute chart and created an upside breakout signal. The Keltner signal upside target is 560-560.60, depending on the chart used, and the inverse H&S set an upside target somewhere near 563, near the top of a long-term 555.60-563.30-ish S/R zone. Since Friday's bounce, the OEX has been heading up within a rising regression channel that it's been forming off the April low. The OEX has not yet retraced 50% of the decline off the March high, so we still must presume that the climb could be a bear-flag climb, although it's a bit wide for most bear flags. There's some doubt, then, but the flag interpretation remains a possibility.

With that as background, it looks as if the OEX might attempt a climb toward 560-563, but after that, the interpretation is up for grabs. There's a potential inverse H&S on the daily chart, a formation with a descending neckline. Daily oscillators are inconclusive, so we'll have to watch the 560-561-ish neckline to see what happens. Remember that any climb is mined with potential resistance levels. It might be particularly important to watch the SOX's reaction to last night's developments and the BIX's to this morning's economic numbers. And, of course, there's the TRAN's reaction to the inventories numbers this morning. Lately, the TRAN has often been zooming one direction or another before the release of the inventories number, and then just as often as not, reversing that direction afterwards.

Jane Fox : 5/18/2005 8:39:22 AM

Dateline WSJ The Bush administration yesterday may have sounded sterner than ever in calling on China to let its currency float, but the U.S. approach stayed well on the safe side of the line that separates engagement from confrontation.

Treasury Secretary John Snow sent to an increasingly protectionist Congress a report on the currency practices of major American trading partners that was dominated by a discussion of the "substantial distortion to world markets" caused by China's 11-year-old fixed exchange rate between the dollar and the yuan. The report, though, doesn't actually accuse China -- or any other nation -- of meeting the technical requirements for being a designated currency manipulator under U.S. trade law -- something Mr. Snow felt the need to deny was "acquiescence." Still, addressing the Chinese government's aversion to interference in its affairs, he reiterated how damaging the fixed rate could be for China's own economy and sought to dispel the misperception that Washington wants an immediate full float with fully liberalized capital markets, calling instead for a "an intermediate step that reflects underlying market conditions and allows for a smooth transition." Such an intermediate step might entail creating a range in which the yuan is allowed to float against the dollar, the Los Angeles Times notes.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 8:32:33 AM

Equities boomed higher and are holding most of their gains, QQQQ+.1 at 36.80. Ten year notes liked the data as well, TNX down 3.3% to 4.084%. Gold is up .70 at 420.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 8:31:32 AM

Headlines:

U.S. APRIL HOUSING PRICES UP 0.3%

U.S. APRIL MEDICAL CARE PRICES UP 0.2%

U.S. APRIL APPAREL PRICES FALL 0.6%

U.S. CPI UP 3.5% YEAR-ON-YEAR

U.S. CORE CPI UP 2.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR

U.S. APRIL FOOD PRICES UP 0.7%

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 8:30:53 AM

CPI +.5% vs. .4% est.

Core CPI flat vs. +.2% est.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 8:26:19 AM

Session highs across the board for equities, bonds dropping off their highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 8:21:41 AM

Session high for ten year bonds, TNX down 1.1 bpsd at 4.106%. QQQQ has crept back up to 36.72. Awaiting the 8:30 CPI data.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 8:04:18 AM

The Mortgage Bankers Association has announced that mortgage applications fell 10.5% to 699.2 in the latest week, reversing the previous week's 9.4% gain. The Refi Index dropped 10% to 2036.7, reversing the prior week's 9.8% gain.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/18/2005 7:24:57 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1174, NQ 1492, YM 10329 and QQQQ flat at 36.70. Gold is up .50 to a session high of 420.40, silver +.024 to 7.069, ten year notes -1/16 to 112 1/32 and crude oil is up .15 to 49.125.

We await the 8:30 release of the CPI, est. .4%, and core CPI, est. .2%.

Linda Piazza : 5/18/2005 7:06:13 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei coiled on Wednesday, and other Asian markets were mixed, with Chinese economic data surprising to the upside. Despite positive European bourses, our futures are slightly negative ahead of this morning's economic numbers. As of 6:46 EST, gold was down $0.20 and crude, up $0.17 to $49.14, and, as I type, rumors of a press conference with the Chinese PM are hitting currency markets, with the dollar doing some jumping around as a result. I see nothing concrete as yet, however. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

In early trading, the Nikkei coiled, and it was to spend the day coiling as it consolidated after Tuesday's losses. It ended the day up 10.02 points or 0.09%, at 10,835.41. A well-received earnings report and forecast by Cosmo Oil Co. sent oil refiners higher in early trading. Many semi-related stocks climbed throughout Asia. Toyota, one bright spot in Tuesday's trading, lost ground Wednesday when it announced one of the U.S.'s largest recalls, to repair a suspension defect in 790,000 vehicles.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.05%, but South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.35%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.03%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.29%. China's April industrial production rose 16% from the year-ago level, surprising to the upside when it rose so high against expectations for a 14.6% increase. Computer production climbed 69%, auto production rose 6.8% and power output climbed 13%. The Shanghai Composite climbed 0.30% by the close, although the bourse was negative at one point during the day.

In contrast to mixed Asian bourses, European markets are positive. Well-received earnings reports boosted the FTSE 100. European techs gained ground, as they had in early trading in Asia. News centered on Banca Popolare di Lodi's takeover bid for Banca Antonveneta SpA, with ABN Amro having already bid for Antonveneta.

As of 6:58 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 27.40 points or 0.56%, to trade at 4,925.90. The CAC 40 had gained 33.97 points or 0.85%, to trade at 4,040.16. The DAX had gained 39.06 points or 0.92%, to trade at 4,290.83.

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