Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
OI Technical Staff : 5/19/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 7:24:09 PM

QQQQ ... a zero sum game? Today's close comes right at 50% retracement of 12/15/04 high ($40.68) and 04/29/05 low ($34.45). Was Merrill Lynch too late on their bullish call for technology stocks? NASDAQ-100 Bullish % (BPNDX) back in "bull confirmed" status. Link . Bulls have the ball with very good field position.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 7:08:28 PM

Global ... S. Korea Jan-Mar GDP up 0.4%. Consensus was +0.6%. The 0.4% rise followed a 0.9% increase in Q4. Q1 GDP up 2.7% on the year, consensus had been +3.0%. The Bank of Korea cited a slowdown in cigarette production, due to recent tax increases, for slower rate of Q1 GDP growth. Excluding cigarettes, the BOK said GDP would have expanded 0.7% on quarter and 3.1% on year.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 6:10:12 PM

Pivot Matrix for Friday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 5:28:18 PM

Closing Market Watch found at this Link ... June Crude Oil (cl05m) settled down 33 cents, or -0.70% at $46.92 on the NYMEX in Thursday's trade.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 5:31:01 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 5:32:04 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link ... Vacation thoughts/instruction ... CD looks like it is making a bullish move from inverse h/s pattern, but too little too late. I'd sell the three (3) calls if I could get $0.10. I'd sell the one (1) SAP put if I got $4.00 or more. I'd sell the one (1) GOOG for $0.50. Not expecting it, but should a "buyout" take place with SIRI, I'd sell that call on the news (not the rumor, but an offer from XMSR at a specified price). I'd buy back the NAKED DIA puts if they showed $0.10. I'd sell a covered call and two (2) of the YHOO Jun. $40 Calls (YHQ-FH) if I got $0.90. If "brown" were to go airborn, I'd sell the one (1) call for $8.00. Disclaimer: I have no information that any of the above will come true, but if any were to happen, it is what I would do.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 4:12:39 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $105.16, SPY $119.29

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 4:04:58 PM

Bullish naked put lower stop alert I will lower stop on the three (3) naked DIA Jun $100 Puts (DIA-RV) to $0.75, or break even while I'm out of the office Friday-Tuesday.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 3:54:54 PM

The RLX is also keeping the OEX plumped up today, and the RLX has been in breakout mode since Tuesday morning. At 438.78, the RLX heads into that huge gap lower from January, and the RLX is currently at 435.96, so the RLX is about to head into a big danger zone.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 3:50:57 PM

The OEX can't quite break out again, but it's still climbing that breakout level as it climbs, too. Nothing to do still but follow the OEX higher with your stops if you're in a bullish position. The BIX and SOX warn of the possibilityof more weakness, but the OEX certainly is outperforming those two on a Keltner basis, even if it's underperforming its own behavior earlier today. If in a bullish position, ask yourself if you're ready to take partial profit this afternoon or take other measures to protect your profit. This breakout really is looking long in the tooth, but I said that earlier this morning, didn't I?

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 3:51:40 PM

Correction to earlier post (01:46:51) regarding my recent trade history with TASR. The calls I sold as some near-term protection were the TASR June $10 (QUR-FB), not the $12.50's.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 3:46:51 PM

QQQQ continues to hold in the same intraday corrective downphases-that-might-be-bearish-divergences I've been seeing all day. The daily cycle stochastic remains pinned to the ceiling, while the short cycle indicators are now in upphases that appear stronger than that which preceded it. In all, there are no directional clues in the cycles whatsoever. Key support is below at 37.18, with first confluence at 37.30. Upside channel resistance is at 37.60.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 3:42:20 PM

The BIX has not been able to achieve another breakout or, unlike some other indices, a new HOD. Keltner resistance from 366.72-367.45 is holding. So far.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 3:39:41 PM

Dow Jones Steel Index (DJUSST) 141.14 -1.56% ... not much follow through today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 3:36:43 PM

General Electric (GE) $36.90 (unch) .. nice little bounce from the 02:45 lows.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 3:35:26 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.20 ... gets the tick at WEEKLY R2.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 3:35:23 PM

Session high for QQQQ, breaking back above the rising trendline. 30 and 60 min channel resistance line up at 37.59.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 3:32:55 PM

Taser Intl. (TASR) $11.26 +6.83% ...

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 3:30:27 PM

On the OEX, Keltner resistance continues to hold on 15-minute closes, but that resistance slants higher with the OEX. Without another breakout, the OEX looks weaker on a Keltner basis than it did earlier, but that doesn't help bears who see it still climbing, does it? I think it's the BIX's turnaround that helped prevent the OEX from hitting the same Keltner level the BIX and SOX did. It's certainly not the SOX doing it.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 3:25:57 PM

So far, the SOX finds resistance where you would expect it to find resistance if it's going to continue to be vulnerable to the 413.66-415.31 level, but I've typed a lot of those "so far's" today.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 3:23:17 PM

QQQQ intraday chart update at this Link , testing the broken rising trendline from below with the SOX back within its earlier range, above 418.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 3:18:10 PM

The SOX has resistance now at 418.80-419.15. If the SOX is still vulnerable to more downside, it will likely find resistance there on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 3:15:45 PM

Cyberonics (CBYX) $33.95 -12.65% ... slips below mid-point of day's range ($35.94-$32.70)

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 3:16:35 PM

The OEX closed the last 15-minute period below rather than above Keltner resistance. Doesn't mean that the OEX can't continue to climb and can't even create a new breakout signal, but only that it's still showing some weakness relative to its behavior earlier today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 3:13:36 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 3:13:00 PM

I said earlier that you couldn't trust the downside, and this action is proof, but on a Keltner basis, the OEX is still showing more weakness than it did earlier, despite the move higher. If it closes this 15-minute period below the Keltner line currently at 565.67, the Keltner resistance is still holding.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 3:06:45 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 3:04:48 PM

The SOX is testing yesterday afternoon's low from beneath: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 3:04:04 PM

Perhaps the rally was the big boys positioning for the max pain miss?

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 3:03:13 PM

General Motors (GM) $32.50 +2.91% ... not sure if anyone else noticed, but yesterday, not long after (about an hour) we were stopped out of the GM puts at $2.70, there was a boatload of selling at the bid of $2.70. The stop was triggered with 1 contracts traded at the bid.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:58:44 PM

Yesterday morning opening buy premium was a "dinger" to 5.60.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:57:18 PM

Buy/Sell premium range ... seeing some buy/sell premiums as we near Index expiration. Still, buy premium high has only been 3.09 (last buy premium) while sell premium low from earlier this morning just -0.03.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:55:41 PM

You'd think with the major so far above their May "Max Pain" levels that there would be a lot of stock needed to be bought into the close.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 2:55:25 PM

The RLX is being pressured by the line that was formerly support all this week, but the RLX, too, tests that former support.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 2:54:45 PM

It's the BIX's big bounce that's helping the OEX. The BIX is testing the 365.29 Keltner line that's been pressuring it downward all day today. It's at 365.53, just above that line, as I type, but watch the 15-minute close.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 2:54:42 PM

Another "crazy-ivan" move for bonds, with ZN whipping back down to a new low, TNX up to a 4.1 bp gain at 4.108% with 5 minutes left in the cash session.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 2:53:33 PM

The SOX isn't bouncing, and definitely looks vulnerable to 413.49-415.38.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:53:29 PM

10 Most Active ... QQQQ $37.35 +0.44%, SPY $119.03 +0.20%, INTC $25.92 -0.03%, ORCL $12.47 +1.13%, MSFT $25.81 +0.42%, CSCO $19.34 +0.57%, SYMC $21.58 +2.27%, AMAT $15.61 -2.07%, MOT $17.24 +2.07%, SUNW $3.91 (unch).

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 2:53:07 PM

The OEX nearly hit the 562.89 downside target, but then bounced strongly. Keltner resistance at 565.30-565.89.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 2:51:27 PM

Volume breadth is positive, ADV:DECV 1.46:1 for the NYSE, TRIN .85, and 1.66:1 for the Nasdaq, TRINQ up to a neutral/bullish .56.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:50:05 PM

DIA $104.80, SPX 1,186.88 , QQQQ $37.35

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:49:42 PM

Buy Program Premium ...

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 2:48:27 PM

The SOX took out the low as well, breaking below 418. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 2:47:47 PM

A sharp upside spike in the ten year note just now, TNX dropping to a 2.8 bp gain at 4.096%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:46:01 PM

DIA $104.72, SPX 1,185.81, QQQQ $37.34

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:45:44 PM

Sell Program Premium

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 2:45:23 PM

On a Keltner basis, the OEX looks far weaker on a short-term basis than it did earlier today. Point-wise, it's right about where it's been all day.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 2:42:38 PM

With a 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 418.92, the SOX looks vulnerable to 413.43-415.42. A 15-minute close above the line currently at 420.22 makes that possibility look less likely.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 2:42:35 PM

Stepping away for ten minutes.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 2:41:20 PM

The TRAN has a rough H&S sitting on the top of its steep climb. It looks as if a drop to a new LOD would confirm it, although the neckline might be a bit difficult to pinpoint since it's such a rough formation.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 2:37:31 PM

The SOX is beginning to look vulnerable to a deeper decline, perhaps as low as 413.44-415.53. A 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 418.94 would make that possibility look stronger. A close above a Keltner line currently at 420.30 would make it look less possible.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:37:34 PM

Able Laboratories (ABRX) $6.26 -74.56% ... stock was halted until 12:10 PM EDT, then released for trade. The generic drug maker said an internal investigation found the company violated certain laboratory testing norms and that it will suspend all product shipments while it completes review. The company also said its chairman and CEO will resign. The company declined to give any updated financial guidance. ABRX manufactures generic versions of Tylenol, Ritalin, Anusol and Vodicin.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 2:35:29 PM

So far, Keltner resistance is holding on the OEX's first test of resistance after falling beneath it. I'm not counting on that continuing, but the BIX and SOX's behaviors suggest that it might and the OEX might be vulnerable to that Keltner level near 562.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 2:32:31 PM

Nymex June crude closed on its low, -.45 at 46.80. July becomes the front month, today trading nearly triple the volume of the June contract, and finished -.375 at 48.75, 5 cents above the low.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:30:05 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $25.76 +0.78% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:29:34 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) rings up $40.00

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 2:29:19 PM

QQQQ back above the 72 SMA and the broken trendline, SOX back above 420.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:28:32 PM

DIA $104.94, SPX 1,188.32, QQQQ $37.46.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 2:28:14 PM

For the first time this week, the RLX has begun producing 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 434.87. I think it's important to watch the RLX, too. While this is far from signaling weakness, it does signal a slight change in trend. As I type, the RLX comes right back up to retest that former supporting line.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:28:11 PM

Buy Program Premium

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 2:26:28 PM

Now that they've hit first Keltner support, both the BIX and the SOX try to bounce, and the OEX does, too, right along with them. Those betting on a pullback want to see resistance from 564.92-565.40 hold on 15-minute closes. Those hoping for more gains want to see another breakout.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:23:32 PM

Hawaiian Air (AMEX:HA) $5.10 +3.44% ... to exit bankruptcy June 1.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 2:23:11 PM

Although the drop in QQQQ was muted, the SOX borke rising support for the first time since Tuesday. Below 418, the lower low after a higher high would result in a bearish key outside reversal for the day: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:22:24 PM

Intrado (TRDO) $12.43 +12.08% ... strong bid from $11.40 after Pacific growth upgrades from "equal weight" to "overweight."

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:20:27 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 2:19:18 PM

Ten year notes are printing a sideways range 1/16th above the session low, with TNX up 3.2 bps at 4.1%. Crude oil is up to a .025 loss at 49.10 (basis July future), but QQQQ has yet to show any notable weakness.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:18:23 PM

Taser Intl. (TASR) $11.26 after session high of $11.75. Split $10 to $12.50 and I come up with $11.25. Yesterday's low was $10.02

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 2:17:42 PM

The SOX now joins the BIX in having hit the Keltner level that's analogous to the OEX's line at 562.73.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 2:11:02 PM

OEX nearest support at 562.66 with nearest resistance at 564.57-565.35.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:06:26 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 2:04:18 PM

The OEX now looks vulnerable to a Keltner line at 562.66, with resistance now looking far stronger than support. Next support below 562.66 is currently at 559.14-560.52. A 38.2% retracement of the climb this week would be at 558.30, but we can't count on that being hit.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 2:04:04 PM

QQQQ chart update at this Link with price holding after breaking rising intraday trendline support. A break below 37.30 is needed to turn the 30 min channel back down.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 2:03:05 PM

TASR ... intra-day chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 1:59:34 PM

The OEX's behavior is now echoing that of the BIX's earlier today with the OEX perhaps now vulnerable to a Keltner line currently at 562.60. Be careful about assumptions about downside moves after such an extended upside one. Dip buyers or those wanting to be covering shorts might be lurking.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 1:51:23 PM

Session low for GE here, QQQQ 6 cents below the 72 SMA, as far as it's dipped all day.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 1:49:12 PM

Some indices, such as the SOX and OEX, are beginning to have Keltner pictures somewhat like the BIX did earlier. The BIX has been drifting down toward Keltner support that's analogous to the OEX's 562.62 Keltner support, so it's not outlandish to believe that the OEX might be vulnerable to that line, too. It's not currently setting a target there, however, and remember that these Keltner lines all still slope higher, so might rise to meet sideways-trading candles.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 1:49:10 PM

QQQQ's ticking below the 72 SMA here, but no evidence of actual selling pressure yet with the TRINQ still down at .46 and very light volume.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 1:47:00 PM

The SOX is looking as if the Keltner resistance might now be far outweighing Keltner support, suggesting vulnerability to some downside, although how much? Keltner support is rather thin, but if the SOX can climb back above 422.37 on 15-minute closes, it will convert the just-overhead resistance into support again.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 1:46:51 PM

Why I've had an eye on TASR of late. Bought 1,200 shares 05/16/05 afternoon at $11.69. Got smacked the next morning on news that TASR delayed quarterly results. Sold 12 June $12.50 calls for some protection at $1.50. What I saw was strong bidder the last two days for those calls at $1.25 Why is this? (expiration with $12.50 Max Pain? Buyer things big surprise for bears and gap above 05/13 relative high?) Yesterday, I buy back the 12 calls and despite efforts at $1.30, $1.35 I get no fill. Pay up at $1.40. At yesterday's close, I sell 600 shares to try and limit exposure. Today, despite "worry" of delayed filing, stock holds tough. Buy 500 share at short squeeze alert. That stock has now been stopped out at $11.33 and $11.37 fills using 1% trailing stop. Still holding long 600 shares, but need something near $13.00 for a break even.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 1:42:09 PM

The SOX retests its breakout level. It's been doing that all through the day today, so far bouncing and avoiding erasing the breakout signal.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 1:40:01 PM

Yesterday morning I mentioned that the OEX was approaching a neckline for an inverse H&S on its daily chart, with that neckline at 560-561, depending on how it was drawn. Obviously, the OEX did break above that neckline. H&S's and inverse H&S's aren't as reliable as they once were, at least in my opinion, so I don't know that we can count on any upside target being met, but the presence of daily Keltner S/R at 558.47-560.21 and the OEX's close above that level yesterday corroborates the idea of a confirmation of the formation, at least. At some time or another, I'd expect a retest of that broken resistance to see if it holds as support, and I've been watching to see if that retest would occur today. So far, not a sign of it, unless the BIX's action is a prelude to a pullback in that index and others.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 1:38:03 PM

Stepping away for five minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 1:30:01 PM

Taser Intl. (TASR)

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 1:28:20 PM

On the SOX, the break of pennant resistance earlier today, which "should" have seen strong upside followthrough, is reversing back to the level of the violated apex. 30 min channel support is at 420, with rising trendline support above in the 421.25 area: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 1:27:24 PM

The OEX still stays above closely converging Keltner support just below its current level. A 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 564.62 would be needed to show the OEX breaking through that support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 1:26:45 PM

Taser (TASR) $11.25 +6.73% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 1:23:45 PM

Short squeeze alert ... TASR $10.85 +2.94% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 1:20:07 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 1:12:53 PM

The BIX is still finding resistance at a Keltner line currently just above its 365.96 position, and there's presumably stronger resistance at 366.65-366.86, with support near 364.81 and then at 361.71-362.92.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 1:12:01 PM

The ADV:DECV is currently 1.88 on the NYSE and 2.95:1 on the Nasdaq with the TRIN .84 and the TRINQ .43 as QQQQ breaks the last high by 2 pennies.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 1:06:09 PM

And the OEX retests the HOD. Like Jane, I don't think there's much to be said at this point. I'm still watching the BIX, but for now, bulls should just keep their profit-protecting plans in place. I think that 50% retracement of the decline off the March high is likely to be closely watched resistance, but what I think doesn't matter.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 1:03:15 PM

Session highs for NQ and QQQQ at 37.48, with the 30 and 60 min channel tops converging at 37.54: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 1:03:13 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 1:00:11 PM

Of the OEX, RLX, BIX and TRAN, only the BIX has erased its breakout signal. The others maintain theirs. The OEX had, temporarily, but during the current 15-minute period, moved up again.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 12:57:29 PM

Cyberonics (CYBX)

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 12:56:30 PM

We're going to do something with this Marc.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 12:54:20 PM

"Couch Potato" sure hit a dinger with its recent selling of SPX May puts didn't they?

Marc Eckelberry : 5/19/2005 12:53:49 PM

Very, very interesting Jeff. Also note that DOW 1/4 S1 (10254)is monthly pivot for YM (10261)...

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 12:52:51 PM

The word "nonplussed" Link comes to mind as I stare at this range. The bearish divergences that might be corrective downphases continue on the longer intraday cycles, with the 30 min showing a slight uptick. The daily cycle remains pinned at the top. Either some sellers actually start selling soon, or another meltup could potentially be at hand as the daily cycle would start trending in overbought. For the moment, I see no further clues into this ongoing dilemma. Price will have to decide.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 12:50:42 PM

Hey Marc. It's been 21 days since the INDU traded its QUARTERLY S2. Balanced Benchmark with 20-day Net% turned on at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 12:47:46 PM

The RLX still maintains 15-minute closes at or above the Keltner line currently at 434.68, as it has been doing all week. Those are some tiny 15-minute candles, though.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 12:45:21 PM

Per Marc's 11:11:06 : The INDU quarterly pivots (cash) would be 10,003 , 10,253 , Piv= 10,619, 10,869 , 11,235. ... So far this quarter the INDU's H/L has been ... 10,569 on 04/01/05 and 10,001 on 04/20/05. Hmmmm.... 10,001. Wonder what happened the last time the INDU pegged its QUARTERLY S2?

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 12:38:58 PM

Ten year notes continuing to slide, TNX -3.4 bps at 4.102%.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 12:38:19 PM

BIX still being pressured lower, toward a Keltner line that's currently at 364.70, with the BIX currently at 365.89. At some point, it could bounce again toward 366.75 to retest that former support.

Jane Fox : 5/19/2005 12:36:55 PM

Dateline Washington Post Search warrants have been served across the country in connection with the hacking of 310,000 people's personal information from the LexisNexis data bank.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 12:34:32 PM

Volume has trailed off here, 44M shares in total traded so far, with QQQQ's short cycle downphase halfway done. The narrow 30 min channel has edged higher, support now 37.23 and resistance 37.53.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 12:34:10 PM

Perhaps helped by the shared component stocks with the RLX, the OEX doesn't show the same weakness, Keltner-wise, as the BIX.

Tab Gilles : 5/19/2005 12:31:53 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Is MUR forming another base? Link Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 12:30:13 PM

BIX trying to bounce, but finding resistance now at a Keltner line currently at 366.05.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 12:22:08 PM

Many indices are beginning to erase their breakout signals, but haven't yet retested the former support to see if it holds as resistance. Those hoping for a bearish entry should remember that the Keltner overbought conditions can be resolved if indices trade sideways while the mid-channel lines rise and catch up to their positions. The OEX may ultimately be vulnerable to a line that's now at 561.89 but still rising or to the mid-channel level, at 558.44-559.50, but still rising. The OEX has completed a couple of requirements for thinking that it might be ready for a pullback or that sideways consolidation but not the last, the retest and holding of former Keltner support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 12:17:09 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) up 2.4 bp at 4.092%. May "Max Pain Theory" at 4.25% (0.25% increments)

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 12:11:09 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 12:10:48 PM

A huge whipsaw in the ten year bond, now at session lows with TNX up 2.5 bps at 4.093%. In such a narrow range it's easier to tag the high and low quickly, but this was a very sharp reversal just printed. Snapshot of the move in the ZN bond future at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 12:07:21 PM

The OEX is dropping below its breakout level, too.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 12:06:29 PM

BIX still drifting down toward 364.59. I'm watching the BIX because it's showing the first steps toward retracement. It's at 365.25 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 12:05:54 PM

QQQQ broke a minor intraday rising trendline at noon, and is now testing the 72 period SMA support. Link Channel support is lined up at 37.18-.20.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 12:03:52 PM

12:00 Market watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 12:02:48 PM

Headlimes:

MAY PHILLY FED INDEX 7.3 VS. 17.9 EXPECTED

MAY PHILLY FED FALLS TO 7.3 VS. 25.3 IN APRIL

MAY PHILLY FED SHIPMENTS 14.9 VS.29.4

MAY PHILLY FED NEW ORDERS 15.0 VS. 20.3

MAY PHILLY FED EMPLOYMENT 5.4 VS. 16.8

MAY PHILLY FED PRICES RECEIVED 15.7 VS. 28.0

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 12:01:25 PM

Session high for 10-yr bonds, TNX down -.1 bps at 4.067%, flipping negative on the news.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 12:00:53 PM

Philadelphia Fed 7.3 vs 18.0 exp.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 11:58:44 AM

The BIX still looks vulnerable to 364.56, but is bouncing a bit up toward 366.25-367.11 Keltner resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 11:58:24 AM

Awaiting the Philly Fed in 3 minutes with equities poised below their highs.

Tab Gilles : 5/19/2005 11:56:30 AM

$EUR/$USD 10 year chart Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 11:51:20 AM

The OEX still maintains its breakout status, but still only barely. The BIX does not.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 11:50:39 AM

Streicher Mobil Fueling (FUEL) $1.37 -12.17% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 11:50:33 AM

Ten year notes are rising off the lows here, TNX down to a 1.6 bp gain at 4.084%. This has been a very narrow-range inside day for the TNX so far, but TNX has been holding relatively farther from yesterday's low than equities have been from yesterday's high. Bonds are relatively weaker than stocks today, but still holding easily within yesterday's broad range. Daily TNX chart updated at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 11:49:49 AM

PETsMart (PETM) $32.80 +9.91% ... nice gap above its flat 200-day SMA ($30.50) today. Late yesterday the pet products retailer said quarterly net income ended 05/01/05 rose to $44.7 million, or $0.30 per share, from $31.9 million, or $0.21 a share in the same period last year. The latest results included a one-time gain of $0.035 a share, after tax, for previous legal settlement. Excluding the gain, PETM easily surpassed consensus of $0.22 per share.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 11:43:48 AM

The BIX looks vulnerable to 364.50, if not lower. The BIX is currently at 365.88.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 11:42:52 AM

Delphi (DPH) $4.33 +13.64% ... back above its falling 50-day SMA. Volume rather light.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 11:40:48 AM

This morning, the OEX keeps pushing above the 50% retracement of the decline off the March high and the 100-sma and then falling back below those resistance levels. At least for the time being, they're serving as resistance.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 11:36:11 AM

BIX erasing its breakout signal. Now watching for a testing of support, a bounce and a move up to retest that resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 11:35:40 AM

SYMC $21.71 +2.89% ... stock has shown up on radar screen past couple of sessions. Strong move, or nice bounce off of $18.00 double bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 11:33:34 AM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $37.37 +0.45%, ORCL $12.53 +1.62%, MOT $17.39 +2.89%, INTC $25.90 -0.11%, SPY $119.03 +0.21%, SYMC $21.68 +2.84%, MSFT $25.73 +0.11%, CSCO $19.23 -0.05%, BEAS $8.50 +4.42%, LU $2.91 +1.04%

Tab Gilles : 5/19/2005 11:31:00 AM

Eaton Vance Limited Duration (EVV) Nice move today. Link Link Link Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 11:29:15 AM

Another pullback into the range from a higher high, with the short cycle indicators showing either a very weak downphase or a very strong bearish divergence. Until 37.18 is broken, some 20 cents away, the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls. Volume breadth remains bullish, 2.85:1 for advancing shares with the TRINQ down at .44, sustained strong buying verging on extreme.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 11:28:58 AM

As Jane may have already noted, the advdec line isn't showing great signs. Made a lower high while some indices made higher highs. Not the SOX, though.

Tab Gilles : 5/19/2005 11:28:01 AM

$GOLD/$CRB/$USD Longterm Charts Link Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 11:27:29 AM

Potential lower five-minute high on the SOX.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 11:23:41 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 11:22:18 AM

Still watching for signs of weakness on a Keltner basis and everything I'm watching still maintains a breakout statis. If you're in a bullish OEX trade, keep guarding those profits, though.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 11:18:19 AM

The OEX again rose to test the 50% retracement of the drop off the March high and the 100-sma. It pierced the 100-sma, but drops back again.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 11:17:41 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 11:17:27 AM

The RLX is still balancing on that Keltner line currently at 434.24. Still no change in even short-term trend.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 11:13:11 AM

Session high for NQ and QQQQ here at 37.45, with 30 min channel resistance up to 37.55: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 11:12:35 AM

OEX challenging the day's high again.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/19/2005 11:11:06 AM

Well, DOW quarter pviot at 10619 and the 1st quarter closed at 10504. With monthly R1 for YM at 10523 and weekly R2 at 10517, there is some upward attration left it seems.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 11:10:22 AM

Unsurprisingly, overall volume is running lighter than yesterday, with price hanging within the "flag" atop yesterday's flagpole. So far, 30.7M QQQQ shares have traded compared with yesterday's 128.1M total.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 11:07:57 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 11:04:10 AM

Pretty easy to backtest Marc. Just plug in the numbers. I showed quarterly, simply due to institutional quarterly re-allocations. Have written several "Ask the Analyst" columns the past two years regarding quarterly reallocation for individual investors. Hey, if the institutions do it (and they have to) then investors that have a longer-term view must also.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 10:58:02 AM

ADV:DECV is currently 1.47:1 on the NYSE and 2.83:1 on the Nasdaq, with the TRIN .95 and the TRINQ .43. Bonds are slidingback to the lows, TNX currently +2.2 bps at 4.09%. The Philly Fed will be released at noon, est. 18, prior 25.3.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/19/2005 10:56:20 AM

Jeff, would be interesting to see any relevance, although it's probably remote. But it is today's support(DOW)

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 10:56:44 AM

Marc ... I haven't, quarterly is as long-term as I've ever gone with the Pivots. Wrote an "Ask the Analyst" column on quarterly pivots sometime ago. QQQQ Quarterly Pivots ... $33.25, $34.91, Piv= $37.60, $39.26, $41.95.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 10:48:16 AM

Humph ... SNDK $25.53 -0.14% ... morning range $25.41-$25.75.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 10:47:44 AM

The RLX again tests the Keltner line that has been supporting it all week, with that line currently at 433.96 and the RLX just below that. The RLX has been closing at or above that Keltner line all week. I personally think the RLX is important to watch as an indicator index.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 10:47:28 AM

QQQQ update at this Link with price refusing to break the 72 SMA at 37.28. Price and the cycle channels are showing no weakness, which I interpret as bad news for bears in light of the corrective nature of the intraday downphases so far. The selling could merely be delayed, as the longer daily cycle is also due for a top this week. But so far, the strength at these levels is very impressive after yesterday's sharp gains.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 10:45:52 AM

The Keltner outlook just hasn't changed today for many indices, including the OEX. It's maintaining its breakout signal, but just barely, and currently sinks through some levels of Keltner support.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/19/2005 10:57:56 AM

Jeff, do you look at yearly pivots? I have it for DOW right here at 10453.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 10:42:10 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 10:39:24 AM

Gold and silver are trading lows, gold currently down 1.5 at 420.30, silver -.069 at 7.135. HUI and XAU have given back part of yesterday's gains, -1.06% at 172.37 and -1.28% at 81.16 respectively. Crude oil is firm, however, July crude +.5 at 49.625. The US Dollar Index is rising strongly off its overnight lows: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 10:38:37 AM

No further headway this morning, as the OEX finds resistance, at least temporarily at the 50% retracement of the decline off the March high and the 100-sma. Hasn't quite erased the breakout signal, although it's testing it now, and support weakens a little.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 10:35:57 AM

LTX Corp. (LTXX) $4.79 +5.50% ... takes out Friday's highs.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 10:34:31 AM

Motorola (MOT) $17.52 +3.66% ... surging for a 2nd straight session after the company announced a $4 billion, 3-year stock buyback plan.

Tab Gilles : 5/19/2005 10:34:13 AM

Intel (INTC) Fibonacci Retracements Link

Tab Gilles : 5/19/2005 10:23:17 AM

$SOX.X Semi's So much for the 420 level...450 next??? Link

MOT Motorola Doing a stock buy-back, first time in company's history! Link

Intel INTC Hitting $26 level, could be tough resistance barrier? Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 10:22:09 AM

The OEX pulls back to test the breakout zone.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 10:21:41 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,186.05, DIA $104.78, QQQQ $37.31

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 10:21:18 AM

Session high for July crude here, +.40 at 49.525. June crude, which expires today, is up .45 at 47.70, off a high of 47.75.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 10:21:43 AM

All week this week, the RLX has been soaring, producing 15-minute closes at or above a Keltner line currently at 433.85. A close beneath that line would be a change in trend, but only a slight one.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 10:20:03 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 10:19:53 AM

BIX turning down again, along with some other indices, but only slightly so far. I'm just watching it because it showed some Keltner-style weakness relative to other indicator indices today.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 10:19:19 AM

That surge broke to a nominal new high briefly before QQQQ settled back into the range. But the 30 min cycle downphase stalled, not that it was doing much anyway. Bears need a decisive break below the 30 min channel bottom at 37.18 to get the downphase moving. If not, then the next upphase should be a real doozy after the weak corrective action we've seen so far.

Tab Gilles : 5/19/2005 10:16:20 AM

$GSO Software Index Yesterday morning chart... Link currently.... Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 10:15:03 AM

The BIX's Keltner resistance did not hold. We saw two ingredients needed to believe a pullback (or sideways consolidation) could be in order, but not the last.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 10:13:17 AM

The OEX hits the daily 100-sma.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 10:12:12 AM

VIX.X 13.36 -1.96% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.83, 13.25, Piv= 13.71, 14.13, 14.59

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 10:11:52 AM

Session highs here, QQQQ at 37.41 and testing upper channel resistance, TRINQ .36.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 10:10:03 AM

For reference, the OEX's 50% retracement of the decline off the early March high is at about 564.81, with that level potentially serving as resistance. No resistance has stopped the OEX this week, so there's no guarantee this one will either, of course, but bulls should keep it in mind and have those profit-protecting plans in mind.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 10:08:16 AM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link with price holding at the top of yesterday's range. No directional clues from the short cycle oscillators.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 10:07:40 AM

Iffy as to whether the BIX's Keltner resistance will hold or not. The BIX still tests it.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 10:07:36 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 10:06:07 AM

After dropping this morning to confirm a H&S, the SOX rebounded to a new high, invalidating the H&S and proving that the bulls weren't through just yet. The SOX has driven into the 420-423 S/R zone, at 422.18 as I type. These Keltner breakouts continue on some indices, but are getting a little long in the tooth. A pullback to the mid-channel level is getting overdue on some. A warning: if an entity remains strong, it trades sideways while those mid-channel lines cycle up toward it, rather than dropping down to that mid-channel level.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 10:04:12 AM

The Nasdaq is leading in terms of volume breadth, 3.16 advancing shares for each declining, 1.62:1 on the NYSE. The TRIN is a neutral .84, while the TRINQ is showing stronger buying pressure at .48.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 10:01:49 AM

The OEX keeps testing yesterday's highs. Shared components with the BIX aren't giving it much help as the BIX does what we needed to see the OEX do to believe that a pullback might be getting started. The BIX dropped below the breakout level and now rises to test it. Still not certain whether the former support will hold as resistance or not. Either the stronger indices are going to pull the BIX up, too, or the BIX might weaken the performance of some of the strong ones. Or they'll go their separate ways and the OEX will chop around.

Tab Gilles : 5/19/2005 10:01:29 AM

Similar buy signals in late-April as back in August '04. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 10:00:35 AM

Headlines:

U.S. APRIL LEADING INDICATORS FALL 0.2% AS EXPECTED

U.S. LEADING INDICATORS FALL 4TH STRAIGHT MONTH

U.S. LEADING INDICATORS SHOW LOSS OF MOMENTUM

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 9:59:45 AM

The Fed announces a 3.5B overnight repo, for a 750M net add today. Equities jumped on the announcement, but that's a rather small net add for the day. Awaiting the 10AM data, LEI estimated at -.2%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 10:02:33 AM

Payless Shoe (PSS) $16.69 +18.11% ... oh my! Stock surges after company said Q1 profit more than doubled to $30.2 million, or $0.45 per share from $14.1 million, or $0.21 per share in the same period last year. Short interest built back to 6.18 million shares at 04/15/05 benchmark with days to cover rising to 7.04 from 5.47 in March.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 9:57:24 AM

Networking Index (NWX.X) 211.35 +1.21% ... sector winner early.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 9:54:56 AM

LTX Corp. (LTXX) $4.74 +4.40% ... challenges Friday's highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 9:50:48 AM

Bonds have firmed but continue to hold in negative territory, TNX up 1.3 bps at 4.081%. Updated daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 9:49:48 AM

QQQQ bounced from 37.20 and is back to its premarket high. The range has been so narrow up here for so many hours that the 30 min channel has shrunk to 20 cents wide, overlapping the 60 min channel. 37.20-37.40 is the current channel range here, and while the oscillators want to go lower, price has yet to cooperate.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 9:50:01 AM

Titan (TTN) $21.21 +5.89% ... up strong again today. Speculation that L-3 Communications (LLL) $68.11 -0.69% may be a buyer, perhaps paying $22 per share. I (Jeff Bailey) would be selling TTN and taking profits if long. I do not own the stock, but if I did ....

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 9:48:51 AM

The BIX is showing some signs of weakening, but the RLX still goes strong. These two indicator indices for the OEX are pulling opposite directions right now. No clarity. Those in bullish positions need to have those protective plans in place.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 9:47:17 AM

McDonald's (MCD) $30.95 +1.24% ... builds on yesterday's gains. Buyers may be showing up after yesterday's earnings from Jack In The Box (JBX) $40.26 +0.14%

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 9:46:47 AM

Currently at 365.54, the BIX threatens to fall to 363.78 or perhaps even to 360.63-361.82.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 9:43:39 AM

The BIX falls this morning, looking a bit different on a Keltner basis from some other indices. Support weakens, and barring a strong bounce soon, the BIX could be getting ready for a pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 9:42:01 AM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $36.44 +1.41% ... late yesterday company said it has launched a high-powered version of its popular instant messenger service that will enable people to make free worldwide voice calls through their computers, a move some analysts say will help further push mainstream adoption of internet telephony. The move may also underscore the growing importance of instant messenger technology, which some analysts have argued will become the foundation for the next generation of communications services.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 9:41:41 AM

The RLX still looks way overbought on a short-term Keltner basis, but it's still climbing.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 9:40:18 AM

The OEX is still finding support on the breakout level.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 9:38:51 AM

Currently, advancing volume:declining volume is 1.06:1 on the NYSE and 1.87:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 9:34:25 AM

Taser (TASR) $10.74 +1.89% ... still trying to stage comeback after Tuesday's news regarding the delay of financials to SEC.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 9:34:19 AM

The SOX is sinking lower within its Keltner support. It also has just confirmed a H&S on its five-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 9:34:07 AM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link with price edging back to the lower end of yesterday's range. A break below 37.16 should see some sellers pile in. Price is breaking below 72 SMA support as I type, targeting 30 min channel support at 37.20.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 9:33:13 AM

Day trade carry over stop alert ... for SanDisk (SNDK) $25.49 -0.27% ...

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 9:33:04 AM

On second thought, due to those slow charts, I'm not sure I can trust what I'm seeing just yet.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 9:32:20 AM

Unfortunately, my charts are slow this morning. The OEX opens right at the breakout level. Nearest support 562.65 and nearest resistance 564.41.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 9:30:47 AM

Cyberonics (CYBX) $38.87 ... #4 most active and lower at $33.71 after the company said the Senate Finance Committee is "examining the FDA's handling" of Cyberonics implantable pacemaker-like device for treatment of chronic depression. In August, the FDA turned down the company's application for use of the device for depression due to concerns about safety and effectiveness. Then in February, the FDA reversed its decision and told the company it would approve the treatment if certain conditions were met. Cyberonics saying the committee's examination "will produce no new information" and that the probe will have no bearing on the FDA's final approval decision.

Jeff Bailey : 5/19/2005 9:22:37 AM

Netflix (NFLX) $15.50 ... top spot on this morning's most active list and jumping to $18.90 after Wal-Mart (WMT) said it was folding its DVD-by-mail rental operation and agreed to push those customers toward its formal rival.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 9:14:19 AM

A 30 min cycle downphase is in progress, with the 60 min cycle indicators flashing a preliminary sell signal from overbought. The daily remains pinned on the ceiling with a bearish kiss, but no sell signal yet. QQQQ is strong this morning, printing within yesterdy's range. A break above yesterday's spike high to 37.40 would ignite the next round of short covering. The question here is whether the impending daily cycle downphase will occur, or whether it's going to trend higher within the longer cycles. Today is a critical day for bulls and bears alike.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 9:05:17 AM

I want to start this OEX update by noting the tepid reaction of our futures to overnight gains in other bourses. The Nikkei's strong rebound was treated with a relatively ho-hum reaction, perhaps tempered by news that China might have to take further steps to cool its economy. Perhaps there was another explanation, though. After seven days of losses, the Nikkei was due for a rebound, and the Nikkei's rebounds are sometimes sharp. Could our futures' investors have perceived those strong gains overnight as just technical or oversold bounces? At any rate, a wise trader once warned that we should pay attention not only to our futures' values--which would normally indicate this morning that equities were holding onto yesterday's gains, a good thing--but also to their reaction to overseas markets. This morning that reaction would show an inability to build much on yesterday's gains despite remarkable strength in overseas markets, a bit more concerning.

With that preface, here's the update. The OEX bounded to the top of the 555.60-563.30-ish long-term S/R zone but couldn't quite close clearly above it: Link

On the 15-minute Keltner chart, the OEX had created a breakout signal yesterday and maintained it into the close. Just barely. The breakout has continued for a length of time which normally suggests that a pullback is due, even for a strongly performing entity, but it hasn't begun yet. However, to suggest that a pullback might be coming, here's what I look to see happening: I want to see the OEX sink back below the breakout level, currently at 563.45, either sinking below all nearby resistance or sitting in one spot long enough to allow some lines to snake above it, firming up resistance. Then, I want to see that resistance tested and hold. So, as a first step, I'd want to see the OEX fall to about 562.50 or below, or sit at 562.50 long enough for resistance to firm, and then to see it retest that resistance. Until then, the breakout signal will not be totally reversed, and bulls should just keep following the OEX higher with their stops. Of course, if an early pullback is strong and stops are hit, then follow your plan.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 8:54:43 AM

The Fed has announced a big 12B 14-day repo to replace the 7B expiring, for a net gain of 5B in that timeframe. This leaves 2.75B left to address in the 10AM announcement.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 8:52:06 AM

June crude oil future contracts expire today. July is the next front-month, monthly symbol "N". IB users looking for crude oil quotes will be watching QMN5.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 8:32:08 AM

Equities are up on the news, QQQQ to a session high of 37.26, ES and NQ positive, while ten year notes are down slightly off their lows, with TNX up 1.7 bps at 4.085%. Gold is now negative, -.30 to 421.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 8:30:59 AM

Headlines:

U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 20,000 TO 321,000

U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 5,500 TO 329,750

U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 5,000 TO 2.60 MLN

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 8:28:56 AM

Headlines:

[FNM, FRE] GREENSPAN URGES LIMITS ON FANNIE, FREDDIE PORTFOLIOS

[FNM, FRE] GREENSPAN: FANNIE, FREDDIE NEED STRONG REGULATOR

[FNM, FRE] GREENSPAN: FANNIE, FREDDIE PRESENT RISKS TO SYSTEM

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 8:28:25 AM

Remarks by Greenspan on Government-sponsored enterprises to the Conference on Housing, Mortgage Finance, and the Macroeconomy, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta:

Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 7:53:15 AM

The Fed has a 7B 14-day repo and a 7.75B overnight repo expiring today. The 14-day announcement will come first, followed by the short term announcement at 10AM. So far, after massive net adds last week, the Fed has drained for the past two days. So far, neither bonds nor equities have shown any sign of weakness.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/19/2005 7:36:18 AM

Equities are flat to higher, ES trading 1187, NQ 1512.5, YM 10474 and QQQQ unchanged at 37.20. Ten year notes are down 5/32 at a session low of 112 9/32, gold is up .20 at 422 and silver is down .021 at 7.183. Crude oil is up .20 at 47.45.

We await the 8:30 release of initial claims, est. 330K, then at 10AM Leading economic indicators, est. -.2%, and at noon, the Philly Fed, est. 18.

Linda Piazza : 5/19/2005 7:13:32 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei soared in overnight trading, and all other Asian bourses gained. European markets gain, too, although much more modestly. Our futures didn't benefit much from gains in Asia, but did bump up at the European open, having now drifted down from that overnight high. They're near the flat-line level as I type. As of 5:45 EST, gold was unchanged, and crude, up $0.21 to $47.48. Overnight, the OPEC chief hinted that OPEC could cut production at the June 15 meeting if countries' stockpiles continue to build, a statement perceived to be supportive of crude prices. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei vaulted higher Thursday morning and climbed most of the day, closing higher by 241.75 points or 2.23%, at 11,077.16. According to one article, that was the biggest one-day gain this year, but the Nikkei was bouncing after seven straight days of losses. Exporters gained in early trading, boosted by the U.S. CPI numbers, gains in U.S. indices, and yesterday's dip in crude prices. In addition, brokerage Nomura Holdings, retailer Ito-Yokado and Seven-Eleven Japan all announced share buy-back programs. Perhaps after the close--the time stamp isn't clear--the Japanese government announced its outlook on the economy, with one article concluding that the outlook remains similar to the last update. One change was a revision of the outlook on exports to a flat one instead of the previous weak one. The report noted several pressures that should be watched, including, of course, crude prices.

All other Asian markets gained, too. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.36%, and South Korea's Kospi soared 2.34%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.63%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.53%. China's Shanghai Composite gained, but by a much lower percentage than other Asian bourses, by 0.05%. Investment rose 25.7% on the year during the January to April period, even more than it had risen during the first three months of the year and far more than the government's 16% target. This increased worries that the government might need to act again to cool the economy. In addition, in a rising battle to force China to re-value the yuan, the Bush administration added quotas on four more types of textile imports from China. China's Minister of Commerce protested, saying the action violated the World Trade Organization's free and fair trade principle.

With the exception of Italy's market, all European markets gained, too, benefiting from lower crude costs. April's eurozone CPI was unchanged from the preliminary estimate of 2.1% year over year, but the core rate decreased to 1.4% from March's 1.6%. In the U.K., earnings and profit outlooks cheered investors, as did strong April retail sales. A look into the retail sales figures show that its increase was measured against a downward revision to March data and was driven mostly by internet and mail-order sales, a volatile component. Telecom group BT Group was among the reporting companies. French telecom Vivendi also rose after restating Q1 results to show profit rising 72% and sales climbing 8.6%. Two units swung to operating profits, according to a Marketwatch.com article.

Telecoms were in focus throughout Europe, with Goldman Sachs making changes in ratings of individual companies in the group, but keeping its neutral rating on the sector. GS upgraded France Telecom, Telefonica and O2. The company downgraded KPN and Tele2.

Airlines benefited from below-$50 crude throughout the overnight session, but Air France-KLM also benefited from its earnings report. It reported a Q4 loss of 6 million euros, but expectations had been for a loss of 14-73 million euros. Other reporting companies across many sectors also garnered attention, including insurer Zurich Financial, dropping after its report; SAB Miller PLC, gaining; and Cadbury Schweppes PLC, dropping after its report.

As of 7:10 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 6.00 points or 0.12%, to trade at 4,955.40. The CAC 40 had gained 3.62 points or 0.09%, to trade at 4,076.77. The DAX had gained 19.55 points or 0.45%, to trade at 4,344.15.

Market Monitor Archives