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Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 12:12:25 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.65 and set for program selling at $0.00.

OI Technical Staff : 5/24/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 3:58:44 PM

Looks as if the OEX is going to end the day with that doji on the top of a climb. Of course, we cannot just believe that a reversal is going to occur without some corroboration, but this is a first hint that the buying might be waning.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 3:53:16 PM

Here's the SOX's daily Keltner chart. You don't have to know a lot about nested Keltner charts to see that the black channel usually (mostly?) contains the SOX's movements, and the SOX is testing the top of that black channel this afternoon. It may even close the day a little above it (just under 431). Link A sustained breakout would mean something, but this is a likely strong resistance area.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 3:50:54 PM

The 30 min oscillators have turned up for QQQQ after a pathetic downphase this morning, while the 60 min is stalled but not turning up yet. The higher lows off the morning bottom line up with gently rising support below the 38.00. This isn't the most convincing rising triangle I've ever seen, but 38.00 is the resistance line: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 3:50:33 PM

The BIX has bounced up away from its 200-sma.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 3:49:43 PM

The SOX's daily Keltner chart shows resistance at 430.91, near where the QCharts-drawn descending regression channel's upper line would be. I would be a bit skeptical of a Keltner breakout occurring this late in the day, if that should occur.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 3:44:59 PM

So far, today's OEX daily candle is a doji.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 3:41:02 PM

SOX above 430 now.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 3:40:11 PM

For reference, the OEX's 61.8% retracement of the decline from the March high into the April low is near 570. That 570 level turned the OEX back yesterday. Some Keltner charts are showing upper resistance from 570-572, but the OEX shows potential Keltner-style bearish divergence, so there's no assurance those levels will be reached. I don't know about everyone else, but I'm not finding great clarity here.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 3:32:58 PM

QQQQ's back to yesterday's high at 38.00, testing upper 30 and 60 min channel resistance here. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 3:27:35 PM

The SOX certainly isn't getting slapped back just yet, as it heads straight up to the top resistance on the descending regression channel in which it's been trading for months. The QCharts-drawn version crosses near 431-432.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 3:26:41 PM

Session high for NQ here at 1542, with upper 30/60 channel resistance at 1546. QQQQ at 37.96, upper channel resistance still 38.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 3:24:43 PM

ADV:DECV is 1.29:1 for the advancers on the NYSE, 1.25:1 for the decliners on the Nasdaq. The TRIN is at 1.06, TRINQ at .61. Still an impressive division between the two equity markets.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 3:17:41 PM

BIX back above the 200-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 3:13:57 PM

QQQQ is back to the 72 SMA with a surge of volume, the short cycle indicators on preliminary buy signals.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 3:13:05 PM

I'm working hard, scanning indices' charts and even charts of individual stocks, looking for some indication of what will happen next. It's just not there, although watching the SOX, challenging that 200-week sma, and BIX, dropping to test its daily 200-sma, might give us some clues. Just looking at these two indices alone gives a view of the bifurcation of the markets: one strong and one weaker.

As I typed, the SOX bumped above its 200-week sma. Said earlier I wouldn't be surprised to see an intraweek bump above this average. Will it get slapped back, either today or tomorrow? Or will it maintain its breakout?

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 3:09:28 PM

That's a big key reversal if GOOG closes red, currently down at 253.80, now than 11 points off its high.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 3:06:29 PM

The cash bond market closed with TNX -3.5 bps at 4.037%, a .86% decline today. Closing chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 3:01:34 PM

QQQQ update at this Link with the short cycle oscillators growing bottomy.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 2:53:29 PM

ADV:DECV remains negative on the NYSE and is down to 1.05:1 in favor of advancing volume on the Nasdaq. Overall volume is light at 72M QQQQ shares. Yesterday's 93M total is looking far away from current levels.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 2:52:05 PM

It doesn't matter one whit what the OEX is "vulnerable to." It just doesn't seem to go there. Still waiting for a break one direction or the other and one that sticks, and isn't quickly reversed. We haven't had anything like an impulsive move down or up in days. If a big downside move gets started remember to have plans in place ahead of time for how you'll handle 559-561, if the OEX should approach that level.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 2:51:02 PM

Session high for 10-year note futures, TNX down to a 2.4 bp loss at 4.047%. QQQQ continues to find support above the daily pivot at 37.75.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 2:50:10 PM

That's some candle that GOOG is in the process of printing today, if it holds into the close. I'd be scared to trust that potential reversal signal, though.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 2:46:23 PM

The RUT has a roughly shaped potential H&S on the top of its climb on the 15-minute chart. It looks as if a fall below 610-610.14 would confirm it. The RUT is at 611.50 as I type, with potential Keltner support just above 611.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 2:43:34 PM

The BIX hasn't been able to maintain levels above its 200-sma, at least not yet. Keltner resistance still looks strong enough to turn the BIX lower again.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 2:43:18 PM

QQQQ breaks the prior low, testing 37.80 support again: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 2:42:40 PM

The OEX heads lower, still looking vulnerable to the 564.40 level.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 2:36:27 PM

The OEX trades in an absolute straight line on the 15-minute chart. Just have to wait until there's an impulsive move one direction or another. Be cautious about a false breakout, soon reversed, though.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 2:25:58 PM

Me, too, Jonathan. See Jonathan's 2:23 post.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 2:25:54 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 2:23:34 PM

Unless the market has found perfect equilibrium, this range is either distribution or accumulation. We won't know which until either side blinks. I believe that it will break to the downside, based on the light volume of the past 3 sessions (today included), the toppy daily cycle, and general gut feel. After the last week, it wouldn't surprise me to see another launch if they can clear 38, though that level looks like stiff resistance to me. In short, the jury's out as to higher or lower, and I wish the market would make up its mind.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 2:19:56 PM

It's like that old "bear hunt" game for children. The OEX can't go above it (resistance) and can't go below it (support).

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 2:17:44 PM

BIX still challenges its 200-sma.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 2:15:40 PM

The SOX continues consolidating just below its 200-week sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 2:12:31 PM

SOX update at this Link , with 428 resistance holding again.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 2:11:24 PM

30 and 60 min channel resistance are holding at 38.00 QQQQ, despite a return to the highs here and a refusal to hold below the 72 SMA for longer than a few minutes. The intraday pattern is of higher highs and higher lows following the opening gap down. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 2:10:34 PM

The BIX is rising to retest that Keltner resistance I mentioned earlier, as well as the 200-sma. It looks strong enough to hold on the retest, which wouldn't be good for the OEX bulls.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 2:09:36 PM

The TRAN still coils in a triangle at the bottom of the day's range, but it's currently rising to test Keltner resistance near 3617.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 2:04:50 PM

Not even the DJUSHB, the Dow Jones US Home Construction Index, moves much as a result.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 2:04:30 PM

Bonds have firmed again, TNX back to a 2.2 bp loss at 4.05%. QQQQ zigged and zagged but is back to 37.86. Crude oil is up .50 at 49.65, off a high of 49.85.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 2:03:19 PM

The BIX now has significant Keltner resistance at about the level of its 200-sma.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 2:02:37 PM

No reaction yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 2:01:57 PM

Headlines:

FOMC: SOME MEMBERS TRY TO REMOVED 'MEASURED' LANGUAGE

FOMC: 'MEASURED' DOES NOT PRECLUDE LARGER OR NO MOVE

FOMC: INVENTORY BUILDUP NOT A MAJOR WORRY FOR OUTLOOK

FOMC MINUTES SHOW CONCERN OVER INFLATION OUTLOOK

FOMC: FED STAFF FORECAST INFLATION TO EDGE LOWER

FOMC MINUTES: SOFT-PATCH MOST LIKELY 'TRANSITORY'

FOMC: ONLY FEW MEMBERS WORRIED ABOUT SLOWDOWN

Minutes at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 1:57:33 PM

I agree with Keene's comment (1:48, Futures side) that now is not the time to be looking for homeruns on bearish plays. Be ready to take profit if it's offered.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 1:56:10 PM

BIX not moving much, but still sitting just below its 200-sma. If Jeff were here today, he'd perhaps be suggesting that the BIX's performance is important to the OEX's. I'd add that the RLX's is, too, with the RLX having turned lower today but then kind of sitting still along with most everything else, too. The RLX's daily pattern is consolidation at the top a strong rise, which suggests the possibility of a "p" accumulation pattern, but the BIX's pattern is more difficult to see bullishly. Even on the RLX, that consolidation is occurring just below that huge gap from January, and I would presume that it will find resistance somewhere within that gap--bottom, middle, or top--and pull back from there, at least temporarily.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 1:48:08 PM

QQQQ's 20 cent range is less boring than I would have thought, with price net unchanged from its 10AM levels. Perhaps the FOMC minutes at 2PM will get things moving- ten year yields continue to strengthen, TNX currently -.9 bps at 4.063%.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 1:42:28 PM

The OEX's Keltner picture suggests more weakness today than was seen yesterday, but the OEX is being supported into the release of the minutes. The fact that the OEX is being pressured lower but can't be pushed too far suggests that bulls are so far still willing buyers on dips. Will they continue to be after the minutes? That depends on what the minutes say. I've read a number of articles that suggest that many will be scrutinizing what the committee had to say about inflation, particularly in light of a stronger-than-expected jobs report.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 1:40:47 PM

QQQQ testing the broken rising support line from below: Link . The shortest cycle I track, the wavelet oscillator, is turning up while the short cycles drift weakly lower. The picture is net directionless in the short term.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 1:35:19 PM

The OECD sees Japan's economic growth at 1.5% for this year and 1.7% for next year, a report today noted. The OECD counsels that Japan needs to retain its loose monetary policy until deflation fears have been put to rest. It notes the pressures that an increasing yen--a possible result of a yuan revaluation--might put on the Japanese economy and also worried about the trend increasing public debt.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 1:31:18 PM

Perhaps someone else has already reported this, but I note that Fitch has cut GM and GMAC to BB+ or junk status with the outlook remaining negative.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 1:30:11 PM

Market breadth is still divided with the NYSE 1.6:1 in favor of declining shares and the Nasdaq positive but weakening, now 1.15:1 in favor of advancing shares.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 1:29:02 PM

The BIX is still slightly below its 200-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 1:23:37 PM

QQQ breaks below the rising intraday trendline for the first time today, but volume is lighter than one might expect. A break below the 30 min channel support (lined up with the daily pivot) should help get things moving. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 1:22:07 PM

Despite the resistance the SOX faces, the SOX has a habit of overrunning targets and I wonder if it might not overrun that 200-week sma, too. I wouldn't be particularly surprised, and then we'd be faced with determining whether the breakout was real or just a false one, like the one in February. I also show the SOX in a descending regression channel, with the QCharts-drawn version of the top of that channel at about 431.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 1:15:49 PM

Session high for Nymex crude here at 49.85, +.70.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 1:13:05 PM

Keltner resistance still pressures the OEX, but I can almost hear the ping that might result if the OEX should pop above that resistance and head back up into lighter resistance again. It just will not fall to that mid-channel level, despite looking weaker on a Keltner basis than it did yesterday. The mid-channel level is near 564-564.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 1:07:48 PM

Weak demand at the 4-week t-bill auction, with a high rate of 2.765% (up from 2.591% last week)that generated a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.92. Indirect bidders took just 3.86B of the 18B total.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 1:05:22 PM

Just about an hour now until the release of the FOMC minutes.

Tab Gilles : 5/24/2005 1:04:05 PM

From May 3, 2005 MM post...

Tab Gilles : 5/3/2005 3:52:56 PM MURPHY OIL (MUR) Here's a chart I presented last week. I've used the 100 and 150-ema for entry points on MUR. However, looking at the price of $WTIC dropping below $50, seasonal factor and the Presidents push to get more supply increases going along with his speech. I had targeted $85 on Murphy using the uptrend line. We may see that price objective tested this week. Now that said could oil trend lower? Sure it can, markets always go beyond expectation both on the upside and downside. But if you're looking at the longterm I'd say that these levels are great entry points for oil stocks. Still bullish on them longterm. Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 12:57:52 PM

Congrats, Marc!

Tab Gilles : 5/24/2005 12:57:51 PM

Follow up to 12:53 post. Dell... Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 12:57:43 PM

Ten year note yields holding a 2.4 bp loss at 4.048% with the 4-week t-bill auction results due in the next 5 minutes.

Tab Gilles : 5/24/2005 12:53:47 PM

DELL Has hit $40 price objective. Link Link

INTC Hitting resistance. Link

Gold & Silver Index($XAU) Finding support at $80/200 ma levels. (As mentioned 5/13 10:10AM MM post) Link Link

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 12:53:27 PM

I like to experiment with different time frames for my chart, a handy exercise for days like today. I've found from time to time that a 240-minute chart is sometimes useful for the OEX. Here's a 240-minute nested Keltner chart for the OEX: Link This chart suggests that 569.50 was significant resistance on a 240-minute close, but that same 559-561-ish level shows up as significant support, with 564.50 also support on this chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 12:51:45 PM

Amazingly, this morning's weakness has seen those 30 and 60 min downphases, complete with huge bearish divergences, run down part of their range with QQQQ actually unchanged. If this is all the bears can do with these overdue divergent downphases on the key 30 and 60 min cycles, then the next upphase could blow the roof off. Those downphases are not over, but price needs to get back below the 72 SMA at 37.83 in a hurry and start making some new lows. This should have been prime time for the bears.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 12:43:23 PM

Crude oil is back to the highs (current session high 49.475), up .25 at 49.40 here. 50-tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 12:37:46 PM

By one Keltner measure, the OEX is weaker today than it was yesterday, but it still refuses to fall toward 564-564.40, where the smallest Keltner channel appears to be pointed.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 12:36:54 PM

Even the advdec and advdecv lines are coiling.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 12:31:10 PM

The BIX is dipping below its 200-sma, but still close enough to that average that we can consider it testing the average.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 12:26:27 PM

QQQQ testing today's rising trendline: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 12:24:08 PM

Ten year treasury yields have reversed almost as impressively as GOOG off the 265.44 high, with TNX up to a 2.3 bp gain at 4.049%. Link 18-B in week t-bills are being auctioned today, with the results expected at 1PM.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 12:23:47 PM

The SOX retreats a bit from its test of the 200-week sma, but not much yet. It's still above the 10-minute 21-ema, much less the 100/130-ema's.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 12:11:22 PM

New high for the SOX, breaking yesterday's high: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 12:09:49 PM

SOX tests its 200-week sma, with that SMA at 428.07 and the SOX at 427.75. Important test. Other than a single week early this year, the SOX has closed each week below this average for years, as Marc pointed out a while ago.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 12:09:26 PM

QQQQ testing R1 again at 37.91, with 30 and 60 min channel resistance now rising to 38.00. Bears need a break back below the 72 SMA at 37.84 to restore the downside bias in these longer intraday cycles.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 12:07:55 PM

The BIX still looks weaker than the OEX on a Keltner basis and also due to the fact that today, it's testing its 200-sma. If some indices are being parked near recent highs this morning, the BIX is being parked just above its 200-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 12:05:37 PM

Enirely bifurcated markets now, with ADV:DECV 1.68:1 for the decliners on the NYSE, 1.94:1 for the advancers on the Nasdaq. How the market looks today depends entirely upon which chart you're watching. The Nasdaq appears to be in another world from the S&P or the Dow.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 12:03:07 PM

Most Actives JDSU +0.06 +4.06% QQQQ unch -0.01% INTC +0.15 +0.57% SPY -0.42 -0.35% EYET -44.1 unch% SIRI unch -0.04% CSCO +0.11 +0.56% AMAT +0.33 +2.06% MSFT -0.07 -0.27% GOOG +1.79

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 12:02:27 PM

While the OEX slips a bit lower--but just a bit--the SOX attempts to bounce a little higher--but just a bit. Dangerous to microanalyze today.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 11:58:26 AM

The OEX tests the day's low, again showing that vulnerability to 564-564.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 11:54:13 AM

QQQQ intraday chart at this Link with price holding above the 72 SMA as the short cycle drifts.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 11:51:42 AM

Look at how the SOX is moving with respect to the 10-minute 100/130-ema's: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 11:41:42 AM

Might as well have stayed away. Here's more corroboration that markets are trying to steady, holding their place, into the release of the FOMC minutes: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 11:32:42 AM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 11:31:05 AM

Although the OEX is minimally above the Keltner line currently at 566.89, it's still struggling with that resistance. Link It still might be vulnerable to a downturn toward 564.50.

Tab Gilles : 5/24/2005 11:24:39 AM

Oil is hovering near $50 and Murphy Oil (MUR) looks bullish. Link Link

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 11:23:02 AM

I rather suspect that there will be an attempt to prop up the markets into the release of the minutes.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 11:21:13 AM

Big drop on the TRAN this morning, below 3600, and now a big bounce, with the TRAN currently at 3624.79, right at about the 61.8% retracement of the decline off yesterday's high into this morning's low.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 11:19:53 AM

QQQQ is testing daily R1 here at the session high as the short cycle oscillators turn back up. Upside 30 and 60 min resistance line up at 37.96-.99. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 11:19:25 AM

Next OEX Keltner resistance is at 568.15-569.54, and the OEX is attempting to test it.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 11:16:48 AM

The OEX just closed the last 15-minute period cents above the Keltner line needed to preserve vulnerability to 564-564.40. The close above that line was so minimal that I'm not sure I'd count it as erasing that vulnerability, but that possibility exists now. As Jane just mentioned, the bulls still stamp around, waiting for those dips to buy.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 11:14:39 AM

The RLX turns down today, still consolidating just below January's huge gap lower.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 11:13:10 AM

The BIX attempts a bounce from its 200-sma.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 11:12:03 AM

No sooner did I mention Keltner resistance that was holding (on 15-minute closes) than the OEX immediately pushed above that resistance again. It also pushed back above the 30-minute 21-ema, but neither the 15-minute nor the 30-minute period has concluded and we don't know what's going to happen. As I mentioned early this morning, a lot of bulls will be happy to buy dips, and that might make any downside limited or choppy. That might be particularly true ahead of the FOMC minutes at 2:00.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 11:10:49 AM

This appears to be day 3 of the volume drought, with all of 36M QQQQ shares traded so far. Yesterday's volume fell nearly 15M shares short of the 107M average.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 11:08:27 AM

Despite a big sell program, price held above the daily pivot for QQQQ and the 30/60 min cycle channels have yet to break down. The current 2 day chart is looking like a wide head and shoulders to me, with the neckline at 37.60-.62, but as I've been repeating, it's all noise within an uptrend until the sellers actually step up to the plate. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 11:06:59 AM

So far, the OEX still find resistance on 15-minute closes at a Keltner line currently at 566.75, maintaining vulnerability to 564-564.40.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 11:03:24 AM

The BIX continues its downturn and is currently testing its 200-sma. Market bulls don't want to see it drop below that average, with the BIX at 363.51 as I type, and with the 200-sma at 363.37.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 11:00:49 AM

I see that the SOX rebounded from its foray into the 420-423 S/R zone. It's in a neutral position on the 15-minute Keltner chart. Nearby resistance and support currently look about equally weighted.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 10:55:57 AM

Nymex crude oil ticks negative, currently -.025 at 49.125.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 10:55:45 AM

Just returning. The bad news is that this morning's appointment took longer than I thought, but the good news is that I won't be away as much as I thought this afternoon.

Keltner-wise, the OEX looks vulnerable to 563.97-564.40 as long as it continues finding resistance on fifteen-minute closes below a line currently at 566.83. On a 30-minute chart, the OEX has for the first time since the 17th begun producing 15-minute closes below the 21-ema, currently at 566.74. That may suggest a test of the 561-562 area, containing the 100/130-ema's on that chart. I haven't been here to observe various patterns, so can't judge how likely that downside target might be.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 10:48:40 AM

ADV:DECV is now mixed, with declining volume leading 1.71:1 on the NYSE, advancing volume leading 1.06:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 10:41:43 AM

The short cycle oscillators reached overbought territory on that surge but have yet to turn down, and it will take a failure of the retest of the 72 SMA at 37.79 to kick off a new short cycle downphase: Link

Jane Fox : 5/24/2005 10:41:24 AM

Dateline WSJ Even if high oil prices ease, prospects for cheaper gasoline, diesel and jet fuel are likely to be limited for at least several years by a growing global problem: a severe crunch in refining capacity.

Previously, the shortage of plants to refine and process crude oil into usable products has been largely a problem for the U.S., by far the world's largest oil consumer. But growing demand for oil from China, India and other rising powers is aggravating the shortfall in refining and threatening to keep prices elevated for years.

Global demand is expected to grow by nearly two million barrels a day this year -- from 82.5 million barrels a day last year -- but the world's capacity to refine and process crude oil is expected to grow by less than half that.

As a result, the recent move by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to crank up production of crude oil to nearly its limit isn't likely to translate into major price cuts for consumers any time soon. That could keep pressure on airlines, auto makers, trucking lines and other industries particularly sensitive to prices of oil-based fuels.

Jane Fox : 5/24/2005 10:29:13 AM

Here is a little addendum to Jonathan's post about the Home Sales.

Dateline WSJ Sales of existing homes rose 4.5% in April to the highest sales pace on record, as low mortgage rates continued to fuel a housing boom, a national trade group reported Tuesday.

The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of single-family homes rose 4.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.18 million units last month, the fastest pace on record. Sales for March were revised downward slightly, from 6.89 million units in an initial report last month to 6.87 million.

The national median home price rose 15.1% to $206,000 from a year ago. That marked the biggest increase since November 1980, when prices rose 15.6%.

NAR economist David Lereah said, "a new record is a bit unexpected, but so is the performance of mortgage interest rates, which have been lower than forecast. When we look at recent job gains, we see all the positive factors coming together to coincide with a powerful demographic demand for housing."

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 10:27:43 AM

QQQQ has broken above the 7200 tick SMA at 37.80, with the short cycle upphase strengthening at last. The session high is currently 1 cent away, with 30 min channel resistance lined up at S1 at 37.91: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 10:24:25 AM

Session high just printed for Nymex crude oil at 49.45.

Jane Fox : 5/24/2005 10:19:25 AM

The VIX is making new daily highs but the TRIN is not so these two are diverging and when they do I put less emphasis on the TRIN.

Jane Fox : 5/24/2005 10:16:39 AM

TRIN is neutral at 1.14 but the AD line and AD volume are both quite bearish. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 10:15:33 AM

Volume breadth remains negative, but not strongly so, ADV:DECV currently 1.8:1 for the NYSE and 1.17:1 for the Nasdaq. The TRIN is holding at 1.13, while the TRINQ is down to .67.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 10:07:20 AM

Treasuries have ticked down off their high, TNX up to a 4.3 bp loss at 4.029%. Gold is holding a gain of 1.7 at 418.60, HUI +1.08% at 178.85 and XAU +1.06% at 82.83.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 10:02:46 AM

Headlines:

U.S. APRIL EXISTING HOME INVENTORY UP 5% TO 2.48M

U.S. APRIL EXISTING HOME SALES UP 4.5% TO RECORD 7.18M

U.S. APRIL EXISTING HOME SALES PRICE UP 15.1% Y-O-Y

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 10:00:51 AM

Existing Home Sales 7.18 mln vs 6.90 mln exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 9:57:05 AM

A net drain from the Fed, with a 5B overnight repo announced, replacing 7B expiring.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 9:56:26 AM

QQQQ bounces to test 7200 tick SMA resistance here at 37.84. I suspect that the Fed has just announced a net add for the day. Will go check. Also, Home Sales data is due in 4 minutes.

Jane Fox : 5/24/2005 9:52:37 AM

Jonathan looking at GOOG reminds me of the go go days when a stock rising $6.00 in a day was nutting.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 9:51:16 AM

QQQQ update at this Link , holding below the 7200 tick SMA at 37.83 and on the daily pivot, with a corrective short cycle drift up from oversold territory. Below 37.70, that upphase should stall or reverse.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 9:47:55 AM

GOOG is melting up again, above 263 now. Anecdotally, I'm hearing that GOOG's market cap now exceeds the US auto industry, or something like that. For bears, it's a stock with horns, cloven hooves and a pointy tail. A moment of silence for this latest round getting vaporized this AM, as overbought gets more overbought.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/24/2005 9:39:35 AM

Volume breadth is negative, TRIN and TRINQ both north of 1.0 at 1.19 and 1.13 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 5/24/2005 7:03:29 AM

I'm going to be gone this morning, taking off in a few minutes, too early to prepare the Asia/Europe report. I hope to be back at about the time of the open, but may not make it. I will be in for a few hours, and then have to leave this afternoon as my granddaughter undergoes tests at the hospital. Here were thoughts I put together last night. I have a giant caution for all in the market today, and that's that we'll be seeing the FOMC minutes this afternoon, and with everyone skittish about inflation, that report has the potential to be market-moving. Understand that before you enter any positions or make decisions about staying in the market.

Yesterday, the OEX tested the 61.8% retracement of the decline off the March high into the April low, with that number at 570, and then the OEX fell back. This round number has also shown up as S/R at various times, too, of course. The OEX has not quite reached the top of a broadening formation that has been forming as the OEX climbed off that April low, a megaphone shape that turns higher. I'm not quite sure what to make of the appearance of a broadening formation that turns higher like this, but the current top of the formation would be at just over 572 as the day opens today. Broadening formations typically signal disorganized trading or emotion-based trading. I can imagine lots of emotion lately, whooping joy for bulls and outright panic for bears.

A prolonged Keltner breakout, one that I don't remember going on so long and hasn't gone on so long back many months, at least, still looks extended but it has just kept on going. The Keltners and an examination of the 30-minute 21/100/130-ema's have shown us what needs to happen to change this uptrend, and we haven't seen more than a mere hint of any pullback before it gets reversed and there's another breakout or near breakout. The OEX has been for many days traveling upward between channel lines that are currently at 566.67 and 569.16. A break of that lower line on a 15-minute close would suggest a test of lines currently at 563.73 and 564.68, and perhaps lower. The 30-minute 21-ema has been prompting bounces every time it's been hit over several days, and that's at 566.81, so a break of that lower Keltner channel line mentioned above would also be a change in very short-term trend with regard to the 30-minute 21-ema. The 100 and 130-ema's are at 561.65 and 560.60, also near daily Keltner channel support and near the OEX's breakout level that prompted this whole thing. The OEX needs to retest that former resistance and see if it holds as support but be careful about making assumptions about how low the OEX will head. Guard any bearish profits if the OEX should begin a rollover. Bulls have had a good run and may be eager to buy dips. And then there are those minutes to be faced.

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