Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 10:20:05 PM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.51 and set for program selling at $-0.17.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 10:16:57 PM

Grocers ... DJ - A federal judge ruled lated Wednesday that California authorities can proceed with an intitrust lawsuit against three (3) grocery chains over a profit-sharing pact they allegedly forged during a prolonged labor strike-lockout. Attorney General Bill Lockyer sued three grocers (ABS, KR and SWY) alleging the chains shared costs during the strike and violated antitrust laws and hurt consumers by discouraging competitive pricing.

OI Technical Staff : 5/25/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 9:48:33 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... I did not profile any trades today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 9:36:20 PM

Pivot Matrix for Thursday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 4:55:30 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link ... at the close, 11,200 shares printed at the bid of $8.95 (session low) for the "junk bond" Pacholder High Yield (PHF).

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 4:44:07 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 4:00:13 PM

We wouldn't expect anything different, but the SOX isn't giving us any clues, closing the day just below a 50% retracement of yesterday's range. It didn't quite create a strong tweezer-top formation, did it?

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 3:53:57 PM

Aside from Initial claims, the 8:30 GDP data looms large. QQQQ's short cycle is maxxed out to the upside as the 30 min cycle upphase gets underway, 30 min channel resistance currently 37.90. Price is stuck to the 37.80 line, just below today's daily pivot. The daily cycle remains maxxed out at the top and trending in overbought territory. If the 30 min cycle fails to break yesterday's high, we should see some daily cycle sell signals tomorrow. Today's light volume action nevertheless saw a lower low and lower high for the day.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 3:46:52 PM

The SOX is testing the 50% retracement of yesterday's range, but from the underside this time. That's at about 426 or just above it. Bears want the SOX to end the day below that 50% mark while bulls want to see the SOX end the day above that mark.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 3:41:56 PM

July Crude Oil futures (cl05n) settled up $1.31, or 2.64% at $50.98 in Wednesday's trade.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 3:40:21 PM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 109.44 +0.69% ... looking for a close above its 200-day SMA (109.15) for the first time since falling below on 04/14/05 at 105.98.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 3:39:58 PM

I've got that old Rawhide song, "Rolling, rolling, rolling" in my mind again, except it's "Coiling, coiling, coiling." The OEX is trading in a tight rectangular range from about 565.75 to 566.80. It may be narrowing the range on the topside.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 3:38:17 PM

Intel (INTC) $27.00 +0.22% Link ... #1 on most actives and trying to gain for an impressive 11th-straight session!

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 3:31:24 PM

So far, the OEX has not yet touched the Keltner line currently at 567.68, a line it will not touch before testing the 565 level again if the Keltner-style bearish divergence is to continue.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 3:28:49 PM

The current bounce has been sharper than the decline which preceded it. QQQQ's 30 min cycle is on a buy signal now, and should continue so long as price holds above 37.70 support at the 7200 tick SMA. The short cycle oscillators are toppy and nearly maxxed out, but could easily trend under the influence of the 30 and 60 min cycles. Once again, volume remains very slight, now just 63.5M shares traded.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 3:21:27 PM

The TRAN is having difficulty staying above 3600, at 3599.53 as I type. It's testing Keltner support, however.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 3:17:48 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 3:15:42 PM

The OEX's descending trendline off Monday's high is at about 567.50.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 3:14:29 PM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 108.81 +0.11% ... best levels here. Turns green. SanDisk (SNDK) $26.33 -1.57% ...

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 3:13:19 PM

The OEX is setting an upside target of 567.74. If the Keltner-style bearish divergence that showed up in the last swing high--at yesterday's HOD--is to continue, it won't touch that target, though. Handy way to assess whether the same degree of weakness persists or not, but doesn't guaranteed continued upside.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 3:12:57 PM

QQQQ popping higher now, testing 37.80 from below.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 3:11:36 PM

The short cycles are looking toppy now, but the 30 min is turning up from near the bottom of its range. 30 and 60 min channel resistance now line up from 37.79-37.81, and a failure to drop soon will see those levels rise further. Either the short cycle downphase will kick in soon, or the 30 min upphase- a good setup for more chop.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 3:08:43 PM

03:00 Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 3:01:31 PM

Unlike many of the indices, the SOX has not topped its 1:00-ish swing high.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 2:59:36 PM

BIX attempting to reclaim the 200-sma. Not there yet.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 2:55:34 PM

The RUT sprang higher, coming back up to retest the 609-ish level that represents the 38.2% move from Friday's tlow to Monday's high, and also, of course, from Monday's high to today's low. So far, that resistance is holding. The neckline of the RUT's H&S is at about 610.10. The RUT's climb looked like a typical bear flag climb and then saw a strong candle that looked a little different, but that 38.2% level holds so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 2:51:23 PM

The short cycle upphase feels heavy so far, with QQQQ stalled below the 30 min channel top at 37.75. But until price gets back below the 7200 tick SMA at 37.67, it will feel like a small bull flag printing. The short cycle indicators are approaching overbought territory, but if the 30 min cycle turns up from here, it could lead to a short cycle trending move within the longer intraday timeframes.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 2:49:26 PM

Here we go again. The OEX closed that last 15-minute period high enough that support now looks stronger than resistance, but the candle's shape questions that conclusion. The OEX has been showing Keltner-style bearish divergence with respect to a Keltner line currently at 567.70. If that bearish divergence is to continue, the OEX will probably not touch that line before it dips toward support again. If it does touch that line first, then the bearish divergence is erased.

Tab Gilles : 5/25/2005 2:42:40 PM

Is today's rise in $WTIC short covering on the unexpected decline in crude supplies this week? Back over $50 again!

Murphy oil (MUR) As I stated back on 5/11 it was a buy. Note* their splitting 2:1 next month. The company said the split will be effective June 3, with shareholders as of May 20 receiving one additional share for each share held. Price obejective $97 Link Link

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 2:41:43 PM

Still almost five minutes in the current 15-minute period, but the OEX is having difficulty breaking free of the Keltner resistance. If it can't do so, that continues questions about whether this was a stop run move.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 2:38:14 PM

Overall volume is looking lighter than yesterday. Barring a very heavy final hour and a half, QQQQ should fall well short of yesterday's below-average 100.9M shares. So far, 53.9M shares have traded.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 2:34:46 PM

The pop higher helped the Dow and SPX far more than it did the Nasdaq. QQQQ is still down .68%, with 2.1 declining COMPX shares for each advancing, while on the NYSE, the DECV:ADV ratio is 1.4:1.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 2:31:31 PM

Stop run or the real thing? The OEX pushes up above Keltner resistance. It hasn't really broken free of that resistance yet, though, becuase it hasn't closed a 15-minute period above that resistance, but it may reach next Keltner resistance (currently at 567.75) before that 15-minute period can end!

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 2:31:08 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,190.52, DIA $104.58, QQQQ $37.72

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 2:30:43 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $36.38 -0.57% ... best levels of the session.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 2:31:08 PM

QQQQ bounced above the 72 SMA for a few moments and is now trading both sides of it, holding on the 37.65 s/r line as the short cycle upphase pauses. The 30 min channel downtrend hasn't yet reversed, and 37.75 continues to appear as the key level to beat in that timeframe. QQQQ now bouncing as I type. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 2:30:10 PM

So far today, the BIX is finding support (on 15-minute closes) on a Keltner line that's currently at 361.61 and is finding resistance on closes at one currently at 362.11, moving down as the smallest Keltner channel does, too. AT some point, a move up to Keltner lines currently at 562.78-363.54 seemed possible, to test broken Keltner support, and the BIX may be attempting that now.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 2:21:08 PM

Fed Watch ... DJ - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Jack Guyn saying improved employment situation will likely offset some of the troubles created by higher energy prices. Earlier today, at a speech made before the Certified Professional Home Builder luncheon in Atlanta, Mr. Guynn argued for more interest rate hikes from the FOMC.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 2:20:50 PM

The OEX moved high enough that it's trapped again between Keltner support and resistance, but not high enough to break free of the resistance.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 2:16:17 PM

The TRAN also bounces, but its bounce is back to the mid-channel level, an expected bounce. I thought earlier today that it had broken down from its bear flag and it had, but it was perhaps only widening that flag. A bounce above 3605 or so that's sustained would change the Keltner outlook on the TRAN. The TRAN is currently at 3598.67.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 2:14:10 PM

The RLX is bouncing, which may be helping the OEX. The RLX is still below the resistance that has been holding it back all day, though.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 2:11:33 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 2:02:13 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 2:01:12 PM

Earlier, Keltners had suggested that resistance was strengthening. We're about to see if that observation holds, because the OEX has risen to test resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 2:00:00 PM

Taser Intl. (TASR) $11.35 -1.30% ... finds some action here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 1:58:22 PM

RedEnvolope (REDE) $10.39 +14.80% ... bid from $9.50 in last hour.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 1:58:15 PM

QQQQ is 4 cents above the low at 37.63, with the short cycle oscillators again oversold and trying for a buy signal at the bottom of their range. The 30 min oscillators are approaching oversold territory as well, and QQQQ is bouncing above S1, previous low, as I type. 72 SMA resistance at 37.68 is next, above which the first short cycle buy signal should print. However, the 30 min channel top is down to 37.75, and it will take a push above that level to kick off the first uticks in that timeframe.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 1:57:52 PM

The TRAN still finds support on its 50-sma, although that 50-sma describes the bottom, descending trendline of a broadening formation at the top of the TRAN's 5/13 low. These broadening formations at the top of a climb are typically bearish formations, but the TRAN doesn't always follow the typical breakout pattern with these.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 1:49:35 PM

Still a danger point for both OEX bulls and bears. Resistance is beginning to look a little stronger than support on the 15-minute nested Keltner chart, but if a strong buy program pushes the OEX above 565.80, that resistance is converted to potential support. If any entered bearish positions near yesterday's close or this morning's open, the most conservative of you might consider taking partial profit now. In fact, stepping out of partial bearish positions might not be a bad idea for all traders as the OEX heads lower. Until that 559-562 level is tested and either holds or fails, we don't know whether to fully believe in the recent bounce we've had or not. I would expect bulls to at least attempt to buy that dip, whether the bounce holds or not.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 1:45:44 PM

Large Block alert ... Input/Output (IO) $6.00 -1.47% ... 1,318,800 crosses at $6.00.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 1:40:39 PM

The day is far from over, but if the SOX were to end the day anywhere near its current 422.67 level, it will have created a tweezer-top reversal signal, one forming at the top of the QCharts-drawn descending regression channel in place since early November. That will not be a good sign if you're bullish the SOX stocks. As I noted, though, the day is far from over.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 1:34:37 PM

The OEX is testing the Keltner support currently at 563.96. A 15-minute close below that Keltner line (remember, the line is dynamic, too, and will move down slightly as the OEX does), then a downside target of 559.94 is set. I'd sure have profit-protecting plans in mind from 562 on down, if the OEX moves that low.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 1:32:43 PM

Session high for gold at 419, low for QQQQ at 37.61 with the short cycle indicators rolling over to a new sell signal. 37.65 should act as resistance immediately above. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 1:28:41 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,186.75, DIA $104.25, QQQQ $37.62

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 1:27:20 PM

BIX still below the 200-sma.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 1:25:59 PM

The OEX has dropped again to test the 50% retracement of the entire drop from the March high to the April low, as well as the daily 100-sma. It found support here earlier today after briefly piercing this potential support. Without a quick bounce above a Keltner line currently at 565.11 and preferably above 565.91, the OEX looks weaker than it did earlier.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 1:20:34 PM

Crude oil rose another 30 cents to a session high of 51.45 a few moments ago. QQQQ has edged back lower, still holding above S1 at 37.65, but the lower 30 and 60 min channel bottoms remain at 37.60. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 1:18:12 PM

The SOX looks vulnerable to 422.23-423.58, according to the Keltner chart.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 1:14:20 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 1:13:50 PM

ADV:DECV has firmed on the NYSE, with declining volume now leading 1.9:1, while on the Nasdaq it's still 2.5:1 in favor of declining shares.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 1:09:21 PM

Just noticed that the OEX has been finding support today at the 50% retracement of the decline off the March high into the April low, at about 564.81 and at the 100-sma, currently at 564.70. The OEX pierced both but bounced back above them. A sustained move below them might see that move toward 559-561 or 562 get started. I'd sure be protective of any bearish profits as those levels were approached, if that should happen.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 1:05:48 PM

Nymex crude +2.97% or 1.475 at 51.15.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 1:05:26 PM

The 2 year t-note auction generated 2.36 bids for each accepted, the high yield 3.615% and foreign central bank participation of 7.775B or 37% of the total. Ten year notes have firmed, with TNX up 2 bps at 4.057% here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 1:03:42 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 1:03:37 PM

The OEX still trades sideways. Here's a Keltner outlook: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 1:01:10 PM

The BIX looks as if it's headed down toward 361.89-362.05 Keltner support, with the BIX currently at 362.23 (headed lower as I typed).

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 12:52:54 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) now up 3.0 bp at 4.067%. Came very close to the 4.0% yield level this morning at 4.002 which most likely finds some technical selling from shorter-term traders.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 12:44:28 PM

Now that I've mentioned that slight weighting toward the bearish side, I have to mention that the OEX's 10-minute period suggests a possible bullish right triangle--flat top just under 565.50 and rising support line. Or is that a bear flag? Difficult to assess at this point, but I thought that the bullish interpretation deserved some mention.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 12:42:54 PM

The SOX attempts a bounce, but it's tepid so far. The BIX can't get over first Keltner resistance, at least not so far. The RLX attempted a bounce, but pulls back. The TRAN still climbs in what may be a bear flag off today's low. Nothing really conclusive here, although there's perhaps a slight weighting toward the bearish side.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 12:34:43 PM

The OEX still trades sideways.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 12:34:22 PM

Ten year treasuries have dropped, with TNX up 3.9 bps to 4.076% and above yesterday's high. The lower low and higher high is a potential key outside reversal day, if the TNX bulls/10-yr bond bears can hold until the close. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 12:32:57 PM

Headlines:

FED'S GUYNN: MORE RATE HIKES NEEDED TO SUSTAIN GROWTH

GUYNN: ECONOMY ON SOLID, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH PATH

GUYNN: ECONOMY CAN HANDLE MORE RATE HIKES

GUYNN: FED GOAL IS NEUTRAL RATE, NOT THERE YET

GUYNN SEES GROWING UNCERTAINTY FOR MONETARY POLICY

GUYNN SEES NO SIGNS OF SUBSTANTIAL INFLATION PICKUP

GUYNN NERVOUS ABOUT SPECULATIVE HOUSING MARKET ACTIVITY

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 12:32:27 PM

The current QQQQ range off the 37.65 low has been a short cycle upphase of sorts- a sideways chop with very poor price action. While a break above 72 SMA resistance could change that, mere pennies away, the intraday outlook is becoming more bearish because of the weak bounce. A break below 37.65 would cause a downside whipsaw of this weak short cycle upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 12:27:15 PM

Sonus Networks (SONS) $4.30 +5.65% ... breaks out of 60-minute interval bull pennant.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 12:20:28 PM

Bonds are continuing their slide, with TNX now up 1.3 bps at 4.05%. The Treasury is auctioning 22B of 2-year t-notes today, the results of which are expected at 1PM.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 12:17:41 PM

Well, we recognize this flattening, don't we? Doesn't make it any easier to endure, but we just have to wait to see what happens.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 12:14:04 PM

The SOX is still testing the 10-minute 21/100/130-ema's. No conclusion to the test just yet.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 12:12:22 PM

The OEX remains trapped between Keltner support and resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 12:12:03 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 12:11:21 PM

The SOX failed to break yesterday's low despite its sharp drop this morning, currently bouncing below 425, with the 72 SMA down to 426.10 above.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 12:04:53 PM

The RLX currently looks vulnerable to 432.50, with the RLX at 433.71 as I type. The RLX continues to consolidate in a tight range just below January's huge gap.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 12:03:55 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 12:01:17 PM

Boston Scientific (BSX) $29.88 -2.38% Link ... lower after the drug-coated stent maker lowered growth forecast for the year. Company citing acquisition costs and expectations that its heart stents will continue to lose ground to rival products despite the company holding onto its market-leading position. Updated guidance is no full year EPS to be between $1.85-$2.00 per share compared with prior guidance of $2.00-$2.20 from 02/01/05 guidance. Expects full-year sales of $6.35 billion to $6.57 billion, compared to prior guidance of $6.4-$6.7 billion.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 11:52:52 AM

Keltner-wise, this is an important moment for the OEX. Keltner resistance pressures the OEX into Keltner support that has looked relatively strong. If support breaks, with a 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 564.03, it looks vulnerable into that 559-561 or 562 level. If the OEX pops up through that resistance, though, there's a possibility of a relief rally, however brief or long that might be. I'm thinking brief, but maybe explosive while it lasts.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 11:51:17 AM

Ten year notes have flipped negative, with TNX now up 0.7 bps at 4.044%. Daily chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 11:48:51 AM

Another session high for crude oil at 51.30 now. QQQQ failed beneath the 7200 tick SMA at 37.75, but 30 min channel support has stopped declining, holding at 37.60.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 11:47:23 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,187.84, DIA $104.32, QQQQ $37.69

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 11:47:20 AM

The BIX's first Keltner resistance held after all, with the BIX dropping back to that Keltner line currently at 362.76 by the close of that 15-minute session. That's why I mentioned that the resistance hadn't yet been officially violated because there hadn't been a 15-minute close above that line.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 11:45:47 AM

So far, the SOX's 10-minute 100-ema has held as resistance, but it's not through challenging it, I don't think. The SOX might bounce up toward the 10-minute 21-ema, now at 425.55, but turning down quickly. The 100-ema is at 424.83.

Tab Gilles : 5/25/2005 11:42:16 AM

Those that follow my charts know that I rely on some key indicators looking for reversals and overbought/oversold extremes. On these 2 charts you can see that mid-April presented an op[portunistic entry point to long the Nasdaq. With today's profit taking, I'd still look at this runup as still being bullish. Until I see some reversal signals. Not to neglect that one should not rely on just one indicator and to wisely look at a multitude of charts. But to also look at the fundamentals and sentiment numbers as well as the technicals. Have an entry and exit strategy that is comfortable with your risk level.

$VXN weekly chart Link

$NASI/$NAHL Link

$NAHL Link

One way to trade these charts is via Rydex leveraged funds, using the 200% leveraged RYVYX & inverse RYVNX. The recent run up from the mid-April buy signal in the $NDX using the RYVYX would of resulted in a +17% return in 5 weeks )150% annualized). Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 11:41:30 AM

DJ U.S. Steel Index (DJUSST) 137.06 -2.67% Link ... UBS cutting its steel price outlook. Sees hot-rolled steel for 2005 down 8% to $560 a ton. 2006 estimate lowered to $465 a ton, or 10% lower. Firm cites building inventories and weakening demand. The firm cuts its price target on X $38.73 -3.15% Link to $46 from $52, STLD $26.48 -3.74% Link target lowered to $32 from $35, and WPSC $17.46 -2.83% Link price target lowered to $18 from $19.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 11:38:39 AM

So far, OEX Keltner resistance at 565.35 holds.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 11:38:02 AM

The TRAN is below 3600, and has been testing the 50-sma at 3577.41. It did dip just below yesterday's low, but so far finds support at the 50-sma. It's at 3590.97 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 11:37:50 AM

Crude oil to a new high at 51.05, +1.375.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 11:35:59 AM

The BIX moves up again to challenge the 200-sma and gathered Keltner resistance, with that resistance at 363.65-363.81. There's resistance at 362.79, too. Although the BIX is above that level now, at 363.02 as I type, it hasn't closed above it on this just-begun 15-minute period, so the BIX hasn't officially cleared that resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 11:34:01 AM

Most Actives ... CPN $2.46 +24.24%, QQQQ $37.74 -0.60%, CSCO $19.74 -1.30%, INTC $26.87 -0.37%, LU $2.78 -2.45%, SPY $119.13 -0.31%, JDSU $1.60 -2.43%, MSFT $25.60 -0.58%, EBAY $37.92 +2.79%, EYET $14.40 +11.19%

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 11:33:50 AM

The three-minute OEX nested Keltner channels were telling the truth and a bounce has begun since my 11:23 post (actually while I was uploading that post). Dialing back up to the 15-minute chart shows that the OEX is currently challenging first Keltner resistance, at 565.38. Those hoping for a continued rollover for whatever reason want to see that resistance hold, but there's more at about 566.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 11:33:09 AM

ADV:DECV is currently 2.21:1 in favor of NYSE decliners, 2.57:1 Nasdaq decliners. The TRIN is .95, TRINQ 1.19.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 11:31:03 AM

Preliminary buy signals here on QQQQ's short cycle indicators, if it can clear the 72 SMA at 37.75: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 11:27:17 AM

The Fed's coupon pass is in the amount of 1.197B, bringing today's net add to 6.197B. However, the coupon pass is only deliverable tomorrow. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 11:26:37 AM

I've mentioned over the last few days that the SOX has been until today finding support on the 10-minute 100/130-ema's. Today, the SOX dropped below those averages and now comes up to retest them. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 11:23:16 AM

The OEX is still steadying. When dialing down to a three-minute nested Keltner chart, you can observe the support lines trying to form beneath the OEX's current position. Right now, that support looks stronger than nearby resistance, so that a (very) short-term bounce might soon be in order. Remember that this is a three-minute chart, and that the longer-term charts show much more possible weakness.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 11:18:17 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... It doesn't appear that any of my triggers from Thursday evening were hit.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 11:17:09 AM

Big drop in the MID, too. I mentioned earlier in the week that there's a potential H&S on MID's daily chart, and this drop is just part of the right-shoulder-forming exercise. I could see MID bounce around between 650-670 for a while, although I note that the left shoulder was rather sharply formed as was the head. Watch for a continued drop or a bounce above the appropriate right-shoulder level.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 11:14:01 AM

QQQQ is trading a narrow range just above the session low at S1 as the 30 min keltner bottom declines to 37.60. Bulls need a move back above declining 72 SMA resistance at 37.76 to stall the downphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 11:10:57 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 11:03:44 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 11:03:29 AM

Session high for July crude here, +1.075 at 50.75.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 11:00:51 AM

The OEX hasn't tried to bounce, but it has tried to steady. Keltner resistance slopes down toward it, now at 565.59-566.48.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 10:54:45 AM

The Fed has announced a coupon pass, which is akin to a permanent repo, adding liquidity. No amount has been announced yet.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 10:50:17 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 423.39 -1.64% ... sector loser early. TER $12.84 -2.57%, MRVL $40.42 -2.57%, IFX $8.83 -2.43%, BRCM $35.68 -2.21%, NSM $20.00 -2.10%, NVLS $25.34 -2.12% pace decline. ALTR $16.06 -0.37%, ALTR $22.23 -0.44% and INTC $26.79 -0.59% relative strength.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 10:47:12 AM

Sector Bell Curve (Tues-Tues) at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 10:44:22 AM

So far, the OEX isn't showing much inclination to bounce from the Keltner support that it's testing. Next resistance has lowered to 565.99-566.46.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 10:40:47 AM

QQQQ held yesterday's low but is bouncing weakly, with the 30 and 60 min channels now pointing south. 30 min support approaches daily S1 at 37.65, with the short cycle oscillators trending in oversold territory. Session low at 37.70 as I type: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 10:34:25 AM

Crude oil has settled back to 49.95. Updated 50 tick chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 10:32:31 AM

Headline:

CRUDE SUPPLIES DOWN 1.6 MLN BARRELS IN LATEST WEEK: DOE

Distillates rose 1.9M barrels, gasoline rose 609K barrels. Estimates were for a 1.5M rise for crude, 538K rise for distillates and 600K rise for gasoline inventories.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 10:31:14 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,187.92, DIA $104.31, QQQQ $37.74

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 10:30:41 AM

Crude spiking, 50.25 here, equities dipping. Awaiting the inventory data due now.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 10:30:00 AM

10-year Treasury YIELD ($TNX.X) ... down 1.2 bp at 4.025%.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 10:29:43 AM

Caught on the telephone.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 10:29:19 AM

Global ... Germany's preliminary May CPI +0.3% month-over-month. Up 1.5% year-over-year.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 10:24:17 AM

The OEX is finally hitting that Keltner support that I thought it would see. Now, will there be a bounce?

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 10:22:28 AM

ADV:DECV has declined to 2.97:1 in favor of decliners on the NYSE, 2.51:1 in favor of decliners on the Nasdaq- TRIN and TRINQ are only slightly higher to 1.0 and 1.14 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 10:23:35 AM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $36.23 -1.03% Link ... Goldman Sachs reiterated its "outperform" rating after its Internet usage study (3rd of the year) indicates that secular trends remain positive, but a divergence across sectors is emerging. The investment banker said new media is benefiting from secular tailwinds, while e-commerce faces a diminished marginal benefit from broadband. Goldman also reiterated "outperform" for shares of eBay (EBAY) $38.09 +3.25% Link and Google (GOOG) $253.14 -1.10% Link .

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 10:20:11 AM

Crude oil inventories estimated to rise 1.5M barrels, gasoline expected to rise 600K barrels and distillates are expected to rise 538K barrels. The report is due in 10 minutes.

Tab Gilles : 5/25/2005 10:19:31 AM

Looks like some profit taking today. However...that said is this a pause and with the oil inventory report w/i next 30 minutes spark the rally to continue? Link

$NDX Link Link

CSCO Link Link

INTC Link Link

$SOX Link Link

DELL Link Link

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 10:18:03 AM

Nymex crude has reopened, currently +.10 at 49.775. Session high is 49.90.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 10:17:31 AM

Yesterday afternoon, I mentioned the RUT's roughly formed H&S on its 15-minute chart. That's been confirmed this morning, of course, and the RUT eads down, almost to the 605-ish downside taret already.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 10:17:24 AM

Session lows across the board. The longer QQQQ holds below the 72 SMA, the great the chance the 30 min and 60 min channels will abort their chop and flip negative. Link The 30 min channel has already flipped lower.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 10:16:03 AM

The OEX is still headed toward 363.30-364.82 Keltner support. If there's a bounce--somewhat more questionable than earlier since there was no bounce during the characteristic first retracement of the day--those hoping for a pullback for whatever reason want to see the 566.30-566.50-ish level hold as resistance.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 10:13:58 AM

The BIX has begun that bounce from just above the support I thought might hold, bouncing up to test Keltner and 200-sma resistance. The shape, speed, and height of this bounce will tell us something about whether that resistance is likely to hold. At this point, I'd think it's likely it will.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 10:12:23 AM

QQQQ breaking rising trendline support now, printing a low of 37.79 as I type. 30 and 60 min channel support are at 37.70 and 37.74 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 10:12:17 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,188.95, DIA $104.44, QQQQ $37.81.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 10:11:42 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 10:10:28 AM

Volume breadth is negative across the NYSE (2.47:1) and Nasdaq (2.26:1), with the TRIN .98 and TRINQ 1.16, both at the high end of neutral.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 10:08:53 AM

QQQQ walking along rising support from yesterday, so far playing out similar to yesterday with a gap down open followed by a choppy rise: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 10:06:30 AM

The BIX approaches possible support near 363.40, with the BIX now at 363.80. It appears that resistance near its 200-sma is joined by Keltner resistance, though, so a bounce could be followed from a rollover from 363.60-364.50.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 10:03:45 AM

Here comes the bounce attempt on the OEX. Those hoping for a pullback for whatever reason want to see the OEX's 566.63 Keltner resistance hold.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 10:03:21 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 10:02:40 AM

The SOX has retraced almost half of yesterday's range, with that 50% retracement at about 426.10 and the SOX at 426.55 as I type, trying to steady just above that 50% retracement. Pattern begins to look like a possible "b" distribution pattern on the five-minute chart, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 10:01:52 AM

Session lows for ES and YM futures, QQQQ holding a cent above its low. TNX is down 1.2 bps at 4.025, gold and silver back to positive territory.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 10:01:07 AM

April New Home Sales ... +0.2% to 1.316M, Estimates were 1.350M

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 10:00:37 AM

Headlines:

U.S. APRIL NEW HOME SALES SET RECORD

U.S. APRIL NEW HOME SALES BELOW 1.33M FORECAST

U.S. MARCH NEW HOME SALES REVISED 1.313M V. 1.431M

U.S. APRIL NEW HOME MEDIAN PRICE UP 3.8% Y-O-Y TO $231K

U.S. APRIL NEW HOME INVENTORY UP 0.2%

U.S. APRIL NEW HOME INVENTORY 4.1 MONTHS

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 10:00:15 AM

BIX below the 200-sma and yesterday's low.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 9:59:44 AM

No rebound on the OEX during the usual first retracement of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 9:53:50 AM

VIX.X 12.80 +1.10% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.05, 12.33, Piv= 12.82, 13.10, 13.59.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 9:53:29 AM

The Fed has just announced a 10B overnight repo, which results in a 5B net add against the 5B expiring from yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 9:52:15 AM

My best guess is that the OEX will at least approach the 564.38-564.80 Keltner support, if not actually touch it, and my best guess is that it will attempt a bounce from that level or slightly above it. It's what happens after that bounce--how high it goes and its shape--that tells us what to expect next. That's in an ideal world, and that near touch and bounce attempt might not happen, but that's what Keltner channels suggest. If the bounce is in a back-and-forth flag-ish shape, then watch for a potential rollover, perhaps from 566.80 or so.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 9:52:39 AM

Calpine (CPN) $2.26 +14.14 ... #3 most active. Company saying it plans to cut about $200 million in annual costs and cut more than $3 billion in debt by end of year in restructuring effort that will pare operations in an effort to boost profits.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 9:47:59 AM

SOX below the 200-week sma.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 9:46:59 AM

The OEX's next Keltner resistance is near the bottom of the gap this morning, at 566.98. The OEX looks vulnerable to 564.42-564.78, but it's looked vulnerable to that particular configuration of support for days. I suspect it will reach it, but then possibly bounce from it. Then those hoping for a pullback, either for a bearish entry at the pullback or a new bullish one after it would hope to see that Keltner resistance hold.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 9:43:32 AM

Session low for 10-yr bonds here with TNX down 1.8 bp at 4.019%. QQQQ has yet to break its 37.81 low, with the short cycle oscillators reaching oversold territory here. A break above the 72 SMA at 37.90 should kick off a new short cycle upphase.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 9:41:59 AM

The TRAN has broken the support of yesterday's likely bear-flag rise, but it has not dropped below yesterday's low, confirming that break of support. It's at 3609.67 as I type, with yesterday's low at 3585.05.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 9:40:16 AM

The first retracement of the day should begin in a few minutes. Bears are happy to see the OEX open lower after yesterday's doji, but they don't want to see the OEX close that gap this morning during that first retracement. Right now, yesterday's support is holding, but this morning's pattern is far from bullish so far.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 9:38:31 AM

BIX turning down to test the 200-sma again.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 9:37:27 AM

All day yesterday, the OEX balanced on the 10-minute 100/130-ema's, and it's testing them now. They're at 566.28 and 565.74, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 9:35:54 AM

The SOX hit its 200-week sma and bounced. Still negative, however.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 9:39:48 AM

Ameritrade (AMTD) $14.48 +2.62% ... quick bid after flat open. Smith Barney begins coverage of E-Trade (ET) $12.15 with "hold" rating, saying "in our view ET's unsolicited offer to buy Ameritrade (which has been rejected by AMTD) will have to be raised to at least the high teens if a deal is going to get done, implying limited upside to ET in the near term."

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 9:33:53 AM

QQQQ testing rising support and confluence at 37.80: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 9:33:12 AM

Gap lower on the OEX this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 9:23:48 AM

Network Appliance (NTAP) $30.40 ... #2 most active at $29.26 pre-market. Late yesterday company said quarterly net income up 74% to $63.4 million, or $0.16 per share. Revenues were up 35% to $451.8 million. However, revenue forecast for current quarter lagged consensus estimates. Company currently forecasting high-end revenue of $478.9 million, with consensus having been $483.7 million.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 9:19:22 AM

Eyetech Pharmaceuticals (EYET) $12.95 ... #1 on pre-market most actives. Stock got hit sharply lower from the $24 level yesterday, but getting a bounce at $14.02 with company holding conference call to reiterate confidence in Macugen for neovascular age-related macular degeneration.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 9:15:31 AM

The cycle picture is mixed for QQQQ, with the 30 min cycle stalled in a weak upphase, the 60 min cycle stalled in a weak downphase, and the daily cycle maxxed out but refusing to roll over. QQQQ has channel resistance at 38.07-38.10, support for the 30 min cycle at 37.84 and for the 60 at 37.73. A short cycle downphase is currently in progress.

Jeff Bailey : 5/25/2005 9:13:26 AM

Pivot Matrix for Wednesday at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 8:53:32 AM

Doji at the top of a climb: that's what the OEX produced for a daily candle yesterday. This was the third day when the OEX produced some kind of candle that indicated waning momentum in the upthrust, so one candle alone can't be taken as a sign of an imminent reversal. Still, I'd be leery of new bullish entries at this point until the OEX either breaks higher out of what could be a consolidation pattern or pulls back to a strong support level. Upside breakouts may be risky and those entering bullish plays on such an upside breakout should be ready to jump right back out again if the OEX then reverses. The daily Keltner channels suggest that 559.76-562.32 might be solid support on a first test, so if a rollover begins, I'd have profit-protecting plans in mind for my bearish position at that point, if touched. Some Keltner charts suggest that about 572.50 would top out the current push higher, but the OEX is already showing some signs of Keltner-style bearish divergences and I'm not sure that higher level will be hit.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 8:46:00 AM

Ten year notes now continue higher, with the yield (TNX) down to a 3.1 bp loss at 4.006%. On the daily chart, yesterday's low is being broken, with support at 3.97%-4.0% coming into view. Link Merrill has stated that it sees the TNX down to 3.5% by Q1 2006, and expects rate cuts in 2006 to ignite a "powerful" bond rally. It expects that the Fed's target rate will peak in August at 3.5%.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 8:32:04 AM

QQQQ is up to a .11 loss at 37.86, near session highs, gold has recovered to 416 and TNX is currently down 2 bp at 4.017%.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 8:31:00 AM

Headlines:

U.S. APRIL DURABLE-GOODS ORDERS UP 1.9% V 1.5% EXPECTED

U.S. APRIL DURABLE-GOODS SHIPMENTS UP 1.6%

U.S. APRIL CORE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS UP 1.6%

U.S. MARCH DURABLE-GOODS ORDERS REVISED -1.6% V. -2.3%

U.S. APRIL DURABLE ORDERS UP 1ST TIME IN 4 MONTHS

U.S. APRIL DURABLE-GOODS INVENTORIES UP 0.1%

U.S. APRIL ELECTRONICS ORDERS DOWN 5.8%

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 8:23:40 AM

Bonds are firm ahead of the 8:30 data, TNX down 1.2 bps at 4.023%. Gold futures have just plunged to a low of 413.20 and bounced back to 416.40, -1.30 now and possibly a bad tick earlier. QQQQ is down .13 at 37.84 with 7 minutes to go until the Durable Orders report.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/25/2005 7:35:03 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1191.5, NQ 1537.5, YM 10480 and QQQQ -.13 at 37.84. Gold is down .30 at 417.40, silver +.046 at 7.046, ten year notes +5/32 at 113 5/32 and crude oil +.125 at 49.80.

We await the 8:30 release of Durable orders, est. 1.3%, and at 10AM, New Home Sales, est. 1.328M.

Linda Piazza : 5/25/2005 7:08:35 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei fell, responding to economic news, and all other Asian bourses typically covered in this report fell, too. European markets typically covered in this report also decline, although European markets are mixed. Since the European open, our futures have either coiled (NQ) or attempted to recover from overnight lows, but currently remain negative. As of 6:56 EST, gold was up $0.40, and crude, up $0.13 to $49.80. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

As had been expected, Japan's trade surplus fell in April, but it didn't fall as much as some had expected and part of the decline was due to the importing of more machinery to increase capacity. Exports increased by 7.8%, but imports grew a greater 12.7%. The surplus declined 20.5% from March's number. The Nikkei headed down in early trading, perhaps also influenced by another announcement made yesterday. The OECD announced that it expects Japan's economic growth at 1.5% for this year and 1.7% for next year. As I mentioned yesterday on the Market Monitor, the OECD counsels that Japan needs to retain its loose monetary policy until deflation fears have been put to rest. It notes the pressures that an increasing yen--a possible result of a yuan revaluation--might put on the Japanese economy and also worried about the trend of increasing public debt. The Nikkei was to move down all day, closing lower by 119.22 points or 1.07%, at 11,014.43.

That April surplus data included information that steel imports had declined and Japanese steel-related issues declined. Perhaps affecting the banking sector tomorrow were the after-the-close earnings releases of two of Japan's biggest banks, Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. Mitsubishi saw group net profit drop 40%, and UFJ posted a loss that widened from the previous year's loss.

Although other Asian markets were mixed, the ones typically covered in this report all declined. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.35%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 1.08%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.68%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 1.15%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.16%.

European markets are also mixed, but the ones typically covered in this report were all lower as this report was prepared. Germany's IFO index fell to 92.9 from the previous 93.3, and the IFO officials didn't have much good to say about the economy. Weakness in the manufacturing and construction sectors led to the decline in the index. They reported that weak growth would probably continue over the next months. If exports hold up, they believe that a recession can be avoided, however. They called upon the ECB to lower rates. In the U.K., Q1 GDP was revised to 0.5%, below the previous 0.6% estimate. Lower manufacturing output was a factor in the U.K., with the weakness in manufacturing output expected.

Companies responding to news or earnings reports included financials such as France's Societe Generale SA, gaining after its earning report, and Dutch and Belgian Fortis NV, gaining slightly after its earnings report. Some other European financials slipped lower, however. Avis Europe fell heavily after its earnings report. British retailer Gus PLC dropped after reporting and noting that it would sell its 66% stake in Burberry Group PLC and later will separate the Argos Retail Group from the Experion, the credit agency. Goldman Sachs downgraded Swiss biotech firm Serono SA to an in-line rating, and its shares eased.

As of 6:54 EST, the FTSE 100 was lower by 7 points or 0.14%, at 4,975.50. The CAC 40 had lost 2.66 points or 0.06%, at 4,099.40. The DAX was lower by 4.79 points or 0.11%, at 4,391.85.

Market Monitor Archives