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OI Technical Staff : 5/27/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 6:29:02 PM

e-mini S&P futures (es05m) updated chart with retracment work at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 6:07:00 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... NASDAQ NH/NL ratio chart at this Link ... Can see what happened in trade blotter and this indicator of bullish/bearish leadership. I posted the NYSE NH/NL ratio chart at 12:22:34. You wouldn't chart anything for the five day, but you would add 3 X's up to 70% for the more intermediate-term 10-day ratio.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 5:05:19 PM

I spent the better part of the day looking for some type of out the money "naked call" play, but I still sense, based on observation, that there's some near-term upside yet to be unwound, and I really couldn't find any premiums attractive enough to sell. I would have liked to have bought back the DIA naked puts for $0.05 today, but DIA never really got a move going. Thanks Pfizer (PFE)!

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 4:46:02 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Day traded long shares of Velocity Express (VEXP) at $10.05 and exited at target of $10.48. ($+0.43, or 4.28%) Sold long 100 shares for a $10,000.00 full position account in Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) at the bid of $37.22. ($1.54, or +4.32%). This brings the total position back to about 1/3 bullish. In the following trade blotter a 1,000 share = "full position" trader may have been long 750 shares= (3/4 position) so I use 375 shares as today's sell amount. Here's the recent trade blotter of CLOSED trades so far this month. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 4:00:27 PM

It looks as if the bulls will have their minimal SOX close above the 200-week sma (has happened before, once, for one week, in the last few years), but not above the top of the descending regression channel in which the SOX has traded for many months.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 3:54:29 PM

Energy ... Idaho PUC raises Idaho Power's Base Rates 6.3%.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 3:54:14 PM

The OEX just hit the five-minute 100-ema and bounced a bit. It's broken through its supporting trendline off the morning's low, however.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 3:53:17 PM

The MID tests its breakout level, too. For whatever reason the small and mid-cap stocks were sent higher at the time of the bond-market close, the RUT and MID are close to erasing all the gains made since then.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 3:51:59 PM

Without a strong and immediate bounce, the RUT has confirmed the H&S on its five-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 3:51:04 PM

The RUT is dropping toward the neckline of that potential H&S on the top of its five-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 3:50:36 PM

The OEX is dropping now toward the supporting line of its possible rising regression channel.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 3:48:41 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 3:50:18 PM

There's been an uneasy drift up, possibly shorts deciding to sleep easy for the next 3 days rather than sweat a Tuesday morning meltup. Currently, the 30 min cycle upphase is faltering just ahead of overbought territory, while the 60 min downphase is stalling partway through its decline. The short cycle continues to trend in overbought territory. All of the longer intraday cycles are looking corrective at this point, and the daily cycle remains pinned at the top of its range. Above 38.00 QQQQ, the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls- the most notable thing aside from the extremely low volatility readings and light volume, has been the utter lack of selling whatsoever.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 3:46:36 PM

The OEX is again challenging 570, with that being the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the March high to the April low.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 3:46:01 PM

The RUT still maintains its breakout on the 15-minute chart, but the five-minute one shows a potential H&S, with the RUT now at the right-shoulder level. A bump up to a new HOD would invalidate it.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 3:44:28 PM

Wells Fargo (WFC) $60.84 -0.16% ... still down $0.10.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 3:43:42 PM

S&P Bank (BIX.X) 366.10 +0.21% ... making a little move toward the close.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 3:34:03 PM

Volume has just surpassed the halfway point to yesterday's 84.1M total, with QQQQ trading 43.2M shares so far today.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 3:28:27 PM

I've dialed down to the three-minute Keltner chart to try to figure something out with the OEX, but that chart is still just showing the OEX churning from one channel boundary to the other, with a slight upward cast, with a potential bearish rising wedge shape for the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 3:18:11 PM

The intraday support line break was of course immediately bought at 38.20- a 5 cent move looks big today. The short cycle oscillators are pinned and trending in overbought territory, and a break below the 72 SMA at 38.18 should be enough to kick off the downphase.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 3:14:42 PM

It looks to me as if the big boys and girls are trying to close the SOX above that 200-week sma this week, but are struggling to do so. The SOX is less than two points above it as I type.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 3:13:20 PM

RUT pulling back, too, perhaps just to retest the breakout level near 615.50 or perhaps as the air leaks out of the inflated values. Hard to tell at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 3:28:56 PM

Bullish swing trade exit partial position alert selling 1/2 of the current OPEN position in Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $37.22 +0.18% here. Note: For those using $10,000.00 as "full position," we're currently long 200 shares, roughly 3/4 bullish. This will be reduced to 100 shares now, with average cost basis of $36.04 for remaining 100 shares. Note: For those using 1,000 shares as "full position," then you may have been long 750 shares. You're position may be reduced to 375 shares, or 400 if wanting to keep things round.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 3:10:57 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 3:10:18 PM

QQQQ is breaking intraday trendline support here: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 3:07:10 PM

MID pulling back a little.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 3:06:20 PM

RUT hanging near the day's high, but not blasting higher as I would expect after an apparent confirmation of an inverse H&S. I don't trust these continuation-form inverse H&S's too much anyway, but the presence of a potential CCI ghost (H&S on the CCI) on the 15-minute chart doesn't encourage me. Someone wanted to push the RUT and MID higher this afternoon, though, as that's where the money went when the advdec line surged higher at 1:00 this afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 3:04:48 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link ... July Crude Oil (cl05n) settled up $0.84, or +1.65% at $51.85. September Crude (cl05u) settled up $0.52, or 0.99% at $52.66.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 2:55:52 PM

The SPX's daily Keltner chart suggests potential upside of 1210.39, but that daily chart also shows Keltner-style bearish divergence in place since late last year. If it continues, the SPX will only graze or perhaps not even touch that upside target. If it breaches it, then the Keltner-style bearish divergence will be erased. A similar target on the OEX's daily chart is 576.06, and the OEX is also showing the same Keltner-style bearish divergence.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 2:43:01 PM

I mentioned yesterday that the SOX was touching the upper boundary of a daily Keltner channel that it rarely breaches for more than a day or two. Here's the Keltner channel chart, with that black channel line visible here, and the SOX's reaction today also visible. Link Because this channel usually contains the SOX, a breakout here could be powerful, but the SOX usually turns down after days or weeks of challenging that upper boundary.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 2:36:09 PM

OEX volatility (VXO) is currently up .38 to 11.39 after what's been a wild month. Currently, the VXO is a few ticks above 6 month and multiyear lows: Link . As for NDX volatility, the QQV is down .09 to 13.53 at record lows: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 2:31:32 PM

The OEX still churns.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 2:31:03 PM

Small and mid-cap stocks hold their gains, at least so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 2:26:54 PM

Session highs across the board, QQQ printing 38.24: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 2:25:18 PM

August gold close +.4% or 1.70 at 422.30. HUI is currently up 4.22% or 7.54 at 186.21. On the daily chart, a daily cycle upphase has launched from a bullish divergence, setting up support at 182 and 177 below. Upside resistance is at 188-190, followed by the 200 level. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 2:17:50 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 2:17:13 PM

The Dow has risen over the last few minutes, but the Dow is showing some tendencies toward Keltner-style bearish divergence as it inches above yesterday's high. Doesn't mean that there will be a decline, but the divergence is there, nonetheless.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 2:15:56 PM

The OEX also isn't showing any inclination to move. Not yet.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 2:15:05 PM

Looks as if the RUT has taken over the leadership status from the tiring SOX. The SOX is not benefiting much from the move higher in the RUT. It's nearing time for the SOX to make a move one direction or the other, though, as 15-minute candles are being squeezed so tightly that a breakout should occur, one direction or the other. If it's to the downside, the day's low and 427-ish Keltner support should catch it, at least temporarily, but I'm not convinced yet that the breakout will to the downside.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 2:11:52 PM

Volume breadth is stronger, with advancing volume leading declining 1.62:1 on the NYSE and 1.4:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ continues to hold 38.20 as support, above the 72 SMA at 38.15 as the 30 min channel rises to 38.27. The short cycle upphase is approaching overbought territory. Volume has yet to reach the halfway point to yesterday's 84M shares (average 104.9M), with 37.3M QQQQs traded so far today.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 2:11:30 PM

RUT breaking out again.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 2:03:27 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 2:00:15 PM

Small and mid-caps might be testing higher values, but the OEX, with its 100 big-caps, isn't. Still trading sideways.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 1:58:18 PM

No immediate reversal in the RUT, SML and MID, at least. They've temporarily stalled, but that's all.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 1:51:06 PM

Bullish day trade exit alert ... for Velocity Express (VEXP) $10.48

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 1:45:33 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 1:43:56 PM

I mentioned earlier today that the OEX has both a potential H&S and an inverse H&S. The regular H&S is part of the shoulder formation of the right shoulder for the inverse H&S. Right now, the OEX has risen into the right-shoulder level for the regular H&S and shows some tendency to turn down, but nothing is it all confirmed. That rise into the right shoulder fits with a rounding up toward the neckline for the inverse H&S, too. Confused yet? I usually find that when I can locate competing H&S and inverse H&S's like this, that writing is sometimes choppy and unpredictable.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 1:37:35 PM

Headlines:

1:30pm FERGUSON: 'PRUDENT JUDGMENT' THAT HOUSE PRICES TO SLOW

1:30pm FED'S FERGUSON: U.S. HOUSING PRICES 'RELATIVELY HIGH'

1:30pm FERGUSON: FED SHOULDN'T TARGET ASSET PRICES

1:30pm FERGUSON: BUBBLES HEIGHTEN RISK OF POLICY BLUNDER

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 1:29:46 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.31 +0.03% ... MONTHLY R1 served support. Take a heck of a move to get to that overlapping $106.00 area to the close in a pre-Memorial Day rally.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 1:22:32 PM

The RUT is headed up toward the 620-ish top of a descending regression channel in which it's traded since dropping off last year's high.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 1:21:34 PM

The 30 min cycle oscillators have aborted their downphase from the midpoint of their range, a bullish sign, and are currently in the first steps of a new upphase. Upper channel resistance is currently only 38.225, above which the 38.27-.30 area looms. Because this upphase is opposed to the 60 min cycle downphase, there's a better than average chance that it will only be corrective- but the early abort to the downphase is troublesome. I suspect that it's just more noise within this low volume churn- a break above 38.30 would be a different story.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 1:20:57 PM

The TRAN, BIX, RLX, and OEX don't particularly benefit yet from the big move up in the RUT, SML and MID. We can see where the money is going with the surge up in the advdec line, but what's that going to do to these other indices? Don't see a strong reaction yet.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 1:18:12 PM

RUT, SML, and MID continuing to build on their gains.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 1:15:38 PM

Correction to my earlier post: The cash bond market closed with TNX -.8 bps at 4.073%.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 1:15:35 PM

The SOX still coils above its 200-week sma, below the top trendline of the descending regresion channel in which it's traded for weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 1:14:15 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 1:14:02 PM

Add the SML, the S&P SmallCap 600 Index, to the list of those making a potential stop-running move. The RUT, SML and MID are all either testing the necklines of their potential inverse H&S's or have mildly broken through those necklines, depending on how many candle shadows are included or lopped off. This is coming at the right time (right after bond market close, during lunchtime lull, etc.) for a stop-running move, but let's see if that's what it is.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 1:11:52 PM

RUT and MID making a big move higher, but watch for the potential of a stop-running move that's quickly reversed.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 1:11:38 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $37.34 +0.53% ... nearing morning high ad DAILY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 1:10:52 PM

Google Inc. (GOOG) $264.71 +2.12% ... ringing it up

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 1:08:19 PM

QQQQ breaking above the current range here and testing short cycle channel resistance at 38.18: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 1:07:41 PM

Ten year treasuries are holding light gains, with TNX -.8 bps at 4.073% in the final half hour of the shortened session. This is so far an inside day within yesterday's range: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 1:03:25 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 1:02:35 PM

The TRAN's 15-minute candles are in an absolute straight line and have been that way for two hours now. There's a potential continuation-form inverse H&S on this chart, too, with the TRAN in the right-shoulder-testing level now.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 1:00:17 PM

The SOX did steady ahead of the previous LOD, at least long enough to rise up and test Keltner resistance from 428.99-430.02, whichit's doing now.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 12:58:29 PM

Sideways trading on the OEX. Little clarity from the Keltner picture. This is what was to be expected by this time of day.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 12:56:55 PM

Volume breadth still mixed, ADV:DECV at 1.36 on the NYSE, while declining volume leads 1.01:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 12:55:41 PM

TRIN $1.20 +81.81% .... day trade bulls want a move below DAILY R2, fall to pivot toward the close.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 12:55:09 PM

NASDAQ Comp (COMPX) 2,071.66 +0.02% ... creeps green, best levels of the session.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 12:50:48 PM

Bullish day trade long alert for shares of Velocity Express (VEXP) $10.00 here, limit $10.10, stop $9.80, target $10.48.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 12:44:52 PM

The OEX is still chopping around at the right-shoulder height for a potential inverse H&S on its intraday chart. Nearest support is just below 568, with support below that at 566.50-566.67.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 12:44:23 PM

Session highs for CAD futures at .7993, euros at 1.2592, and crude oil at 51.90 with the US Dollar index breaking yesterday's low: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 12:42:27 PM

QQQQ's daily chart shows price testing confluence resistance from January and the Feb-March highs. To the upside, 38.80 is next confluence. In this timeframe, the oscillators are maxxed out in what has become a trending move. A move below 38.00 should be enough to generate a bearish kiss, and 37.60 appears as the goal for preliminary sell signals. There's been an impressive lack of pullback so far, but the move is clearly very extended in this timeframe. The greatest doubt I have, as mentioned by Keene this morning, is that the setup looks almost too obvious. Daily chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 12:23:34 PM

Session high for crude oil here, breaking to a new high for the week, up .85 to 51.85.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 12:22:49 PM

The SOX has been trying to hold up ahead of the previous LOD, but Keltner resistance is strengthening overhead, too, so it's not certain whether that support is going to hold or whether it's going to be the resistance that holds. Or maybe both and the SOX will trade sideways here, right along the top of the 200-week sma.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 12:22:34 PM

NYSE NH/NL ratio chart at this Link ... five day ratio with X/O representing 10-day ratio. Chart as of last night's close (05/26/05) readings.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 12:09:11 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 12:08:17 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 12:06:41 PM

Volume has thinned further, not even 30M QQQQs traded yet, with price holding on the 72 SMA which currently overlaps the daily pivot. Link . Volatility is holding at the upper end of its day range, but with volume this thin and the range this tight, interpreting sentiment or even breadth borders on guesswork.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 12:05:26 PM

The SOX is turning down toward the LOD, but hasn't touched it yet. It's just above the 200-week sma as I type. Bulls don't want to see sustained values below that 200-week sma today and especially not a close beneath it. Bears don't want to see a strong push above that and the top of the descending regression channel in which the SOX has been trading for months. A big battle perhaps going on. Keltner resistance had been weakening, but now attempts to firm a bit, so it's a Keltner resistance vs. battle being engaged, too. Bears want to see continued 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 429.33. Bulls want to see a move back toward yesterday's highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 11:50:08 AM

Session highs for gold and silver, +1.90 at 422.5 and +.142 at 7.30. Ditto euro futures at 1.2578.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 11:44:36 AM

SOX turning down from Keltner resistance, perhaps setting up for another test of its LOD.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 11:43:58 AM

The BIX and RLX are currently turning down, but the BIX heads into Keltner support and remains just above the 200-sma, which also might be presumed to be potential support. If that support caves, then matters are worse over the short-term than they look, but it hasn't caved yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 11:40:30 AM

August gold is up 1 at 421.60, silver holding its 1.56% gain at 7.27, yet the miners are up sharply, HUI +3.25% at 184.45, XAU +3.18% at 86.02. Crude oil is holding a 1.08% gain at 51.55 with the US Dollar Index retracing part of yesterday's steep gains: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 11:35:52 AM

The OEX is rattling round within its smallest Keltner channel. There's the potential for a H&S on its 15-minute chart, with a descending neckline. The right-shoulder level is being tested as I type. I took the OEX several hours to form the left shoulder, so a several-hour consolidation wouldn't be out of place for symmetry . . . or for a pattern on a pre-holiday Friday.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 11:22:36 AM

The SOX still tests that 430-ish Keltner resistance, so far still closing beneath it on 15-minute closes. Not sure whether that will continue, however, because of the thinning Keltner resistance above that level. That may be easing downward pressure. Have to wait to see. Beginning about now, I'm going to be leery of trusting chart signals as volume subsides and markets are more easily pushed around. If I'm watching (as Marc taught us all to do) that 200-week sma, I'm sure I'm not the only one and I'm sure there's some impetus to close the SOX above that level this week.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 11:20:46 AM

TRIN 1.18 +78.78% ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... s1= 0.50, Piv= 1.08, r1=1.73. May come in useful after yesterday's skewing. Day traders might look for some bid coming in later this afternoon, sometime after lunch as the head trader gets a jump on a 3-day weekend, turns things over to "second guns." Can get a lack of sell bias.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 11:16:22 AM

The 60 min cycle oscillators have rolled over, and the 30 min cycle is still in a downphase that is trying to stall. This morning has been prime time for bears on an intraday basis, and the daily cycle is way overdue for its decline. The fact that only a 6 cent loss is showing after a few hours of synchronous intraday downphases looks bullish to me. Price is currently testing the 72 SMA, but given the extended sideways chop in this area, bulls will want to see a break of 38.27-.30, the current upper level of 30/60 min and daily R1 support, to get above the current confluence.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 11:11:39 AM

There's a roughly formed potential H&S on the BIX's ten-minute chart. It's still forming the potential right shoulder, and the neckline is just above the 200-sma, so I don't know that I'd expect a strong downdraft even if it that formation was confirmed by a drop to a new LOD. Rather, I'd think it was suggesting a retest of the 200-sma.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 11:10:07 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 11:09:04 AM

The SOX is testing that 430-ish Keltner resistance. So far, it's holding, and that's what short-term bears want since Keltner resistance thins above this level.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 11:07:14 AM

Crude oil is printing a narrow range this morning in positive territory, so far an inside day within yesterday's range. 51.70 is immediate upside resistance, with yesterday's afternoon low at 50.80 the bottom of the range. Currently Juny crude is up .50 at 51.50.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 11:03:15 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 10:57:41 AM

The OEX tests Keltner resistance at 568.26. Continued 15-minute closes beneath that Keltner resistance would make the OEX look more vulnerable to 566.16-566.45.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 10:56:18 AM

The SOX is tempering its climb somewhat, perhaps settling into a more flag-like look. Next resistance on the Keltner chart is near 430. Above that, resistance thins, so bears want to see that resistance hold on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 10:54:04 AM

Ditech Communications (DITC) $7.73 -38.6% Link ... telecommunications equipment provider hit sharply lower after the company warned it expects to report Q1 revenues of $10-$11 million, which was well below consensus for $24 million. Ditech blamed its weaker outlook on declining orders from Nextel (NXTL) $29.75 +0.16% Link , its second-largest customer.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 10:54:03 AM

Volume breadth has strengthened from negative to mixed, with advancing volume now leading 1.02:1 on the NYSE, while on the Nasdaq there are still 1.15 declining shares for each advancing. The TRIN is up to 1.2 and the TRINQ .79, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 10:46:54 AM

Crude oil +.60 here at 51.60, 7.5 cents off the session high. TNX is up .5 bps at 4.086%, very quiet today. I believe that there's an early close for bonds today for the holiday weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 10:46:05 AM

10 Most Actives .... QQQQ $38.07 -0.33%, MSFT $26.02 +0.46%, INTC $27.20 -0.58%, CMGI $2.16 +9.13%, PFE $28.13 -2.66%, TIVO $7.28 +4.89%, SIRI +5.97 +3.10%, SUNW $3.84 +0.52%, DITC $7.72 -38.68%, CSCO $19.77 -0.65%

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 10:40:14 AM

Remember the likely trading conditions today as you make decisions about positions, including the possibility that light volume might make chart analysis less valuable than on other days.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 10:38:41 AM

The OEX is still within the potential right-shoulder level for its possible continuation-form inverse H&S, with those formations less reliable than their bottoming counterparts. The OEX is looking as if Keltner conditions could set up to set a downside target of 56.15-566.42, but that target hasn't yet been set. It's just a possibility. Not a lot more clarity on the OEX yet, but the chart looks ever-so-slightly more bearish than it did.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 10:37:29 AM

QQQQ reversed its bounce from a few cents above yesterday's low, currently bouncing within the declining short cycle channel. The 72 SMA is down to 38.15, and the short cycle indicators are trying to turn up just above oversold territory. So far, the 30 min and short cycle action all feels corrective, but I suspect it's the low volume.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 10:36:29 AM

The SOX pierced the 200-week sma but has now bounced above it. It did go all the way down to the Keltner target near 426-427--surprise, surprise--but the bounce shows that the 200-week sma was also support, so both targets were important. Next Keltner resistance is 430-430.34, and SOX bears would like to see that hold on 15-minute closes. The shape of the rise is so far not bear-flag-ish, though, so it's uncertain as to whether that will hold.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 10:32:32 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 10:24:39 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 10:22:49 AM

Breadth is only lightly negative, 1.02:1 for declining volume on the NYSE, 1.39:1 on the Nasdaq despite the session lows across the board.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 10:17:14 AM

Crude oil reopens, July crude +.45 at 51.45, up .88% today.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 10:16:14 AM

SOX sinking closer to its 200-week sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 10:15:43 AM

The Fed has replaced 9.75B in expiring overnight repos with a 6-day 8B repo, for a net drain of 1.75B today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 10:14:58 AM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $37.17 +0.08% ... quick drop from the $37.40 level here.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 10:14:49 AM

RLX showing a slight pullback. BIX still approaches likely support at the 200-sma, less than a point below, at 363.62.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 10:14:41 AM

A sharp 100-tick bearish engulfing candle here has QQQQ back to the lows after failing from a lower high. This looks like a small descending triangle, which should project to a test of the 38.00 level if it breaks the current 38.08 low: Link . Volume is very light, however, and this feels more like afterhours action than a regular session.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 10:12:31 AM

VIX.X 12.31 +0.57% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.38, 11.80, Piv= 12.07, 12.48, 12.75.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 10:09:49 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 10:06:49 AM

The RLX holds up so far, and so does the OEX as a result. The BIX declines toward Keltner potential support as the RLX rises toward potential resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 10:06:43 AM

Copper ... Chile's copper output 406,685 tons in April. Down 6.2% on the year. Phelps Dodge (PD) $87.35 +0.91% Link

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 10:05:43 AM

SOX headed toward its 200-week sma. I'd be prepared for a potential bounce from that average, but I wouldn't necessarily feel too certain of upside based on the several-day move above that average. This is a weekly average and it will be the weekly close that matters as to whether it's been breached or not.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 10:03:28 AM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $5.94 +2.59% ... stong from the opening tick.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 10:01:07 AM

Pfizer (PFE) $28.36 -1.90% ... component loser among Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,536.50 (unch) with FDA looking into its Viagra drug amid reports that some users experience blindness.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 9:58:14 AM

Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 181.61 +1.65% ... sector winner early.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 9:56:25 AM

Tivo Inc. (TIVO) $7.54 +8.78% ... #1 most active stock after reporting narrower quarterly loss. The company also said it added 319,000 subscribers in the quarter, topping an earlier forecast of 265,000-300,000. Total subscriptions surpassed 3.3 million.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 9:54:57 AM

I guess that Keltner resistance was strong enough to turn back the SOX--before it even got too far in its bounce attempt. If the SOX closes the current 15-minute period below the Keltner line currently at 430.27, then it sets up a downside target of 426.41-427.19, but I'd sure be looking at that 200-week sma at 428.08 as a possible bounce point.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 9:52:45 AM

CMGI Inc. (CMGI) $2.13 +8.12% ... #2 most active stock ahead of June 6 earnings (after the close).

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 9:50:49 AM

The SOX is attempting a bounce from the Keltner support that I thought might prompt a bounce, but it's not a strong one so far. First Keltner resistance is at 432.37, with next resistance above that thickening and extending up to 433.86. That looks strong enough to turn the SOX lower again, but perhaps not strong enough to keep the SOX from climbing through some of those layers of resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 9:50:26 AM

Headlines:

UMICH MAY CURRENT CONDITIONS REVISED UP TO 104.9

UMICH MAY CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS REVISED UP TO 75.3

UMICH MAY SENTIMENT REVISED UP TO 86.9: REPORT

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 9:49:11 AM

Ten year note yields have crept up .2 bps to 4.083%, while QQQQ is up to 38.16, back above the daily pivot and testing 7200 tick SMA resistance. A short cycle upphase will kick off if price can break 38.20 for a few minutes, and to the upside, 30 and 60 min channel resistance line up with daily R1 at 38.30.

Jeff Bailey : 5/27/2005 9:49:10 AM

Defense Index (DFX.X) 267.97 +0.84% ... all time high alert.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 9:47:58 AM

The RLX is climbing this morning, perhaps balancing the negative effect of other sectors on the OEX because the OEX just isn't moving much and its Keltner outlook isn't showing any more clarity. Still stuck between Keltner support just below 568 and Keltner resistance, near 569.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 9:47:44 AM

Michigan Sentiment 86.9 vs. 86 exp.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 9:46:25 AM

The BIX has not yet been able to break over the descending trendline off the 5/18 low and turns lower this morning. So far, it remains above its 200-sma, but also remains within the recent consolidation pattern.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 9:44:22 AM

The SOX is back inside that descending regression channel in which it's traded for months, but still close enough that we can consider it to be still testing the former resistance to see if it's support. On a 15-minute Keltner chart, the SOX is headed straight down to 430.27 potential support. It may be hitting that as this post is uploaded. That could prompt a bounce, but unless it's a strong one, the SOX may now be vulnerable to a retest of its 200-week sma. That better hold or the bears might take over. Until then, however, this is just a test of support, although I'm wary. Just trying not to make too many assumptions.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 9:41:55 AM

Intraday QQQQ chart at this Link with price holding just south of the daily pivot and as well as the 7200 tick SMA, above at 38.17. 30 and 60 min channel support line up at 38.03-.05, below which the juxtaposed cycles should get in gear to the downside. 38.00 is obvious confluence support, and bears will want to see it broken for preliminary confirmation of any weakness.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 9:38:42 AM

The SOX is turning back to the top of the descending regression channel in which it's traded for months. Remember that this channel fits best when viewed on a weekly chart, so it will be the weekly close and not intra-week moves that we should be watching. If the SOX should close back inside that channel and particularly if it should close the week back below the 200-week sma, the weekly candle would leave only a candle shadow above those levels and would form the actual body below. Not so bullish, if that should happen, although it wouldn't necessarily be the kiss of death, either. Still, it would keep me wary of the possibility of a rollover, as I already am.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 9:37:48 AM

Volume breadth is mixed and volume is light overall this holiday Friday. Advancing volume leads 1.44:1 on the NYSE, and 1.06:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 9:36:13 AM

10 minutes until the UMich sentiment data, though it's been know to be late.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 9:35:20 AM

The OEX is rolling down, but still doing so within a valid right-shoulder level for a potential inverse H&S on its intraday charts. The formation has not been invalidated or confirmed yet. While I'm not a big fan of continuation-form inverse H&S's and while I'm worried about the sustainability of this rally ahead of next week's developments, I'm not ignoring that formation, either.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 9:32:24 AM

I'm rolling from the expiring June gold futures to the August contract this morning, currently quoted higher by .90 at 421.50, low of 420 and high of 421.80. HUI is up .74% at the open at 179.97, XAU +.76% at 83.99, and July silver +.117 at 7.275.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 9:31:04 AM

Techs performed well in Asia overnight, and Merrill Lynch upgraded LSI, but the SOX heads lower in earliest trading.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 9:24:57 AM

Ten year treasuries are back to unchanged, TNX flat at 4.081%. Daily chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 9:01:01 AM

The OEX ended the day yesterday just below the 570 level, the 61.8% retracement of the decline off the March high to the April low. For a week, the OEX has been bouncing around between the 50% and 61.8% retracements of that move from this spring. A sustained breakout any direction is needed to resolve this consolidation. I'm not certain that's going to happen this week. The SOX has broken out to the upside, but needs a weekly close above the top of the descending regression channel in which it's traded for months before I'll believe too strongly in that breakout. I'm willing to believe in it, but I need evidence, particularly since the SOX ended the day jammed up against a daily Keltner channel boundary that it rarely breaches for more than a day or two. The BIX attempted a breakout above the best-fit descending trendline off the high of the 18th, but couldn't quite manage it. The RLX attempted a break above Monday's high, but couldn't quite make that, either.

Lots of hopeful signs (if you're a bull) abound, too, though. There's the SOX move above the 200-week sma, the BIX move back above the 200-sma and the presence of potential continuation-form inverse H&S's on several indices' intraday charts. The OEX is one of those, with the neckline somewhere between 570-572, depending on how it's drawn. So, we'll be watching for an upside breakout of that latest inverse H&S, one to go along with the already confirmed inverse H&S on the daily chart or a rollover that goes low enough to invalidate the formation. For now, though, I'm worried that short-term upside might be limited, but just as worried that downside might be, too. There's the potential but not the promise of weekend developments in currency markets that could impact our equities' performance and the promise of light volume ahead of the long weekend, so I'd urge caution today about entering any pure directional positions.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 8:56:10 AM

Session high for crude oil here at 51.40, +.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 8:52:06 AM

The current bounce is stalling the 30 min cycle downphase, which so far has been entirely corrective with no price traction whatsoever. The 60 min cycle continues higher, approaching overbought territory. Price is currently above the 7200 tick SMA at 38.17, with upper channel resistance above at 38.29 for the 60 min cycle and 38.31 for the 30 min cycle.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 8:33:42 AM

Ten year notes are rising in the wake of the data, TNX down .6 bps at 4.075% here. Equities are up, NQ +1 at 1550, ES +1.5 at a session high of 1199.5, and QQQQ flat at 38.19.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 8:32:21 AM

Headlines:

U.S. APRIL REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME 0.1%

U.S. APRIL WAGES UP 0.7%

U.S. APRIL SAVINGS RATE UP 0.4%, SMALLEST SINCE OCT. 01

U.S. APRIL CORE PCE PRICE INDEX UP 0.1%

Personal Income +0.7% vs. +0.7% exp.

Personal Spending +0.6% vs. +0.8% exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 8:30:30 AM

Despite Treasury Secretary Snow's strong iteration of the administration's position seeking China's revaluation of the Yuan, China Daily reports that China's central bank remains unswayed. China purchased $16.6B of US Dollars in Q1 2005. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 8:24:02 AM

New York A-G Eliot Spitzer has brought a civil suit against AIG, Hank Greenberg and former CFO Howard Smith alleging fraud and manipulation of earnings to support the company's stock price. The suit, which is unquantified, seeks punitive damages, payback of ill-gotten gains and the restitution of anyone damaged by the alleged fraud. AIG is currently quoted +.09 at 55.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 5/27/2005 7:31:46 AM

Equities are mixed, ES trading +.25 at 1198.25, NQ flat at 1549, YM -5 at 10535 and QQQQ -.02 at 38.17. Gold is flat at 418, silver +.022 at 7.18, ten year notes +1/16 at 112 19/32 and crude oil +.25 to 51.25.

We await the 8:30 release of Personal Income and Personal Spending, est. .7% and .8% respectively, and at 9:45, Michigan Sentiment, est. 86.

Linda Piazza : 5/27/2005 7:16:53 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei posted a strong gain, and most other Asian bourses gained, too. China's was one exception, falling to an almost eight-year low. European markets turn lower as this report was prepared, pressured by the upcoming French referendum and several other influences. Our futures flat-lined during the Asian session, showed some volatility either side of the flat-line near the European open, and now are all modestly negative. As of 6:55 EST, gold was up $0.10, and crude, up $0.23 to $51.24. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

For a couple of days, 11,050 has been resistance for the Nikkei, but it gapped above that level Friday morning, to 11,100. After stabilizing in early trading, it moved higher the rest of the day, seeing a burst higher at the close. It closed higher by 164.39 points or 1.49%, at 11,192.33. Technology stocks saw gains. Retailers gained after April's retail sales were reported as showing a higher-than-expected increase of 2.9% over March's sales. They rose 3.9% over the year-ago level. Nationwide CPI was unchanged over the year-ago level, against expectations for a slight decline. The core rate fell only 0.2% against expectations for a 0.3% decline. The result would likely keep the Bank of Japan from tightening its easy monetary policy, some felt.

All other Asian markets, with the exception of China's, posted gains. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.88%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.80%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.10%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.07%. Hong Kong's real Q1 GDP increased 6.0% on the year, the government announced Friday. Marketwatch notes that this was near the top of the estimates for this number. The government reiterated its previous forecast of 4.5-5.5% growth for 2005. China's Shanghai Composite dipped 0.65%, however. This was the bourse's lowest close in almost eight years. The government has been divesting itself of some holdings in companies listed on the exchange, pressuring stocks lower.

European markets are mixed, but the three markets typically covered in this report move lower. Rising crude costs, the upcoming French referendum this weekend, and the FTSE 100's close approach to 5,000 were listed as reasons for the cautious trading patterns. In addition, France's May business confidence indicator fell to 96. The eurozone's March current account number surprised to the downside, with the surplus much smaller than had been expected. Seasonally adjusted, the current account in the first quarter of 2005 had fallen 10% below that in the last quarter of 2004.

M&A talk among German banks buoyed the DAX and tempered losses in earliest trading. Unicredito Italiano may be close to making a bid for German bank HVB Group AG. More M&A talk among European financials included Van der Moolen Holding's agreement to buy Curvalue Financial Services Group. As had happened in Asia, technology stocks also gained in early European trading. Telecoms group Cable & Wireless had an additional reason to gain, having been upgraded to a buy rating by UBS, up from its previous neutral rating. Other brokerage calls included Deutsche Bank's upgrading of brewer SABMiller to a buy rating, Goldman Sach's upgrading of pharmaceuticals group Schering AG, Morgan Stanley's upgrading of Ciba Specialty Chemicals to an overweight rating, Citigroup Smith Barney's upgrading of Imperial Chemical Industries PLC to a buy rating, and Nomura International's upgrading of Novartis to a buy rating.

All those upgrades couldn't keep all European bourses in positive territory, however. As of 6:53 EST, the FTSE 100 had dropped 16.80 points or 0.34%, to 4,978.10, increasing its declines as this report was prepared. The CAC 40 had fallen 14.03 points or 0.34%, to 4,123.25. The DAX had declined 0.91 points or 0.02%, to 4,435.69.

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