Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 6/2/2005 1:46:45 AM

S&P e-mini (es05m) up 0.25 at 1,201.50 and pretty quiet.

Jeff Bailey : 6/2/2005 1:45:56 AM

July Crude (cl05n) down $0.15 at $54.45 and pretty quiet.

Jeff Bailey : 6/2/2005 1:37:17 AM

Distribution Curve of stocks Dorsey/Wright & Associates classifies as "semiconductors" at this Link . The sector bullish % (BPSEMI) is currently "bull alert" status at 30.86%. I counted 164 stocks in Dorsey's distribution table. 30.86% would equate to just 51 stocks currently showing a "buy signal" intact with is PnF chart.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/2/2005 1:35:26 AM

Jeff, I am not a very confident short with that bounce off weekly pivot. I do agree, it is all in the hands of oil inventories. I think a runup by CL into the numbers might set up some sell the news for oil and you're right, we would blast to weekly R1. We also have jobs data, lots of motion before the open. My stop is in the money anyway. Odds are setting up for the short side and monthly pivot (10375) any day now, just a matter of hooking the line. For now, YM has to get back above May high (10569)before I get squeezed, so I'm still in.

Jeff Bailey : 6/2/2005 1:18:58 AM

Wednesday to Wednesday sector bell curve from Dorsey/Wright and Associates at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/2/2005 1:06:33 AM

Per Tab's 12:12:44 now a SOX and SMH component benchmark, but sorted by 5-day Net% where trader's might be able to look for the bearish divergence with equipment stocks weaker. Sorted tables at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/2/2005 12:54:05 AM

Per Tab's 12:12:44 SOX and SMH component benchmark to Wednesday's close. Sorted by SYMBOL where overlap stocks noted. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/2/2005 12:30:17 AM

Answer to 12:23:33 .... Link ... same 15-minute intervals with QCharts' WEEKLY Pivots turned on. (July Crude Oil futures chart)

Jeff Bailey : 6/2/2005 12:23:33 AM

S&P Dep. Receipts (SPY) ... 15-minute chart with volume turned on. QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels. Buyer turned up the heat to WEEKLY R1, but what happened to buyers at 02:15 PM EDT? Link

Tab Gilles : 6/2/2005 12:16:39 AM

$SOX chart for previous post. Link

Tab Gilles : 6/2/2005 12:12:44 AM

When looking at the semiconducotr index in order to gauge this sector, most use either the $SOX- Phili Semi Index Link or the SMH - Semi Holders Link . One has to recognize the similarities and differences when using this 2 benchmarks. The $SOX is an index of 18 semiconductor/equipment names weighted more towards the equipment stocks, where as the SMH component names are weighted to the chip makers. Now the $SOX is more of a directional leading indicator of the overall tech sector. Link SMH Hitting resistance again at $35 level. Link Lead by Intel (INTC) Link

$SOX Are we setting up for a bearish divergence again on the $SOX? Link

The equipment stocks look weak. Link Link The chips look strong, Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/2/2005 12:00:49 AM

e-mini S&P (es05m) ... the reason I asked Marc about his thoughts on today's settlement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 11:34:33 PM

I've got a "knock, knock ... who is there" lined up for you tomorrow Marc. But I think oil prices need to retreat!

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 11:35:29 PM

It is so helpful for me, and hopefully other traders to sort through a "bull" (Jeff) and "bear" (Marc) logic during a day. Who makes sense (I'm wondering why a bear is so confident in an index short)? Who do I agree with? Too close to call? Then maybe stay on the sidelines.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 11:28:22 PM

Marc! Good to see a fellow trader working late. Yes, I agree. I'm "itching" to sell some naked DIA Jun $107 Calls, but can't get the premium I think I need. Premium aside, I "know" that an early test of a WEEKLY R1 (cash) usually finds sellers, and that bugger held today and was not tested. I think it was ONLY because of oil's bid. Admittedly, my broader equity side is bullish right now. It "has to be" after attempts to short the QQQQ one last time at $35.96. I thought for certian that stocks would retreat any test of the then MONTHLY R1. They had before. But the action you note at Dow WEEKLY S1 on Monday would suggest computers eager to buy. My guess is they too were sellers at MONTHLY R1 in May, but demand just ate them up. Now in replenish mode as inventory management dictates. I think oil price will be important tomorrow. I could easily program a computer to "not buy stocks" on a September crude above $55.96. But turn the buggers on still should Crude Oil retrace today's gains, sending the DIA up through that resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 11:16:15 PM

Swing trade naked put stop adjustments ... things would get a little crazy tomorrow so I want to adjust some stops on current naked put positions. 1) For the three (3) DIA Jun. $100 Puts (DIA-RV) I want to lower our stop to $0.60. This should give room for them to go "poof." 2) For the three (3) PHM Jun $70 Puts (PHM-RN) I want to lower our stop to $0.60.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/1/2005 10:58:26 PM

Jeff, YM daily R1 at 10597 and weekly at 10603. Your thoughts? Seems like we need to hit that weekly R1 (on the DOW it's reversed, weekly is at 10594 and daily 10604). I'm saying that because we bounced well off the weekly pivot at 10517 and tagged weekly S1 Monday. Would seem logical.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 10:53:17 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 10:17:51 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity Swing traded long 1/2 bullish in shares of PETsMart (PETM) at the offer of $32.40. Stop $31.80 with oil acting bullish, and targeting $38.00. Swing trade closed out the remaining 100 shares (for $10,000.00 full position trader) at $38.64. 40 shares/$1427.20 ($+2.96, or +8.3%) and 60 shares/$2,176.80 ($+2.36, or +6.5%). For you 1,000 share="full position" traders, I'm tabulating a sale of 125 shares at $+2.96, and 250 shares at $+2.36. Remember .... we had legged out of some YHOO on 05/27/05.

OI Technical Staff : 6/1/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 9:37:09 PM

Priced to perfection? with economy the ultimate determiner .... Pacholder High Yield (PHF) has been paying a $0.075 monthly dividend for quite some time, so $0.90 per year. SEC Yield in late June of last year was 10.4%. Today's closing SEC yield is 9.7%. I make comparison of what benchmark 10-year yield ($TNX.X) was on two VERY SIMILAR technical levels. Note that the yield "spread" is identical at 5.8%. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 9:08:55 PM

Tonight's Market Wrap ... some further thoughts regarding trade between July and September Crude Oil futures. My thoughts are that traders are trading the July for support, but September for resistance. For now at least. With oil back in play as a possible blanket of broader-market gains.... July Crude futures (cl05n) at this Link and Sept. Crude futures (cl05u) at this Link as well as $WTIC and conventional $0.25 box at this Link , which broke above bearish resistance trend and still holds a bullish vertical count to $58.25. The $WTIC and $0.50 box, which filters out some noise at this Link and also shows a break of downward trend. Then the $WTIC and $1.00 box, which really filters out the noise at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 5:22:25 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 5:10:32 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 4:48:57 PM

NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 7,190.42 +0.78% ... CNBC reporting NYSE will not re-open for trade. Last sale for listed stocks is final close. The NYSE hopes to have problem fixed by tomorrow's open.

Tab Gilles : 6/1/2005 4:48:07 PM

NYSE WILL NOT RE-OPEN. Last sale will be last trade.

Tab Gilles : 6/1/2005 4:33:30 PM

Eaton Van Limited Duration (EVV) Nice move today on Dallas Federal reserve President - Richard Fisher comments on "eigth inning of rate hikes".

Link Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 4:20:23 PM

NYSE Comp. ($NYA.X) 7,190.07 +0.78% ... just prior to trading halt. Seeing a 04:00:59 tick at 7,190.44 and that might be it.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 4:17:15 PM

INDU Components (DIA) ... awaiting final trade and possible re-open of NYSE for final prints. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 4:14:27 PM

NYSE will attempt to re-open exhcange to get a final printing close.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 4:11:49 PM

July Crude (cl05n) down $0.27, or -0.49%. Will see if $54.01 holds overnight.

Tab Gilles : 6/1/2005 4:11:12 PM

EUR/USD continues decline. 1.2 next test level. Link Link Link

Back on 5/23 12:44 PM NEM Newmont Mining looked attractive at $35. Link Link

NEM/$GOLD/$USD Link Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/1/2005 4:06:00 PM

1201 is stronger though. 38% yesterday low and todayhigh.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/1/2005 4:03:24 PM

Jeff, yes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 4:04:45 PM

NYSE Trading Halted at approx. 03:48 PM EDT due to communications problem. (couldn't figure out why it was stuck there). Buld of Dow components 1,2 and 3 letters.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 4:00:09 PM

That's a lot of gaps on GOOG. Exhaustion gap today, maybe? I'm not betting by buying puts, but it will be fun to watch.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 4:00:08 PM

Marc ... do you think bulls can hold an e-min S&P (es05m) settlement above 1,201.75?

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 3:59:06 PM

Yesterday the OEX zoomed down. Today, it zoomed up, but all of that happened within a formation that's beginning to look like a broadening formation on the daily chart. As those broadening formations broaden, we usually see a few back-to-back days when prices zoom from one side to the other of the formation. Sometimes the formations then narrow down, and sometimes they don't before a breakout. Lately, often, prices have been hugging the upper expanding boundary, rising with that rising line. We'll see if that pattern follows through or another asserts itself, but it appears that the OEX did just overrun its support late yesterday. Now, tomorrow, we'll see if today's climb means any more. I'm not convinced yet of a breakout or breakdown (of course). Just more consolidation.

Tab Gilles : 6/1/2005 3:50:17 PM

Google (GOOG) Bulls take caution if you've got huge gains here! Link "Bearish Shooting Star" The long upper shadow and small real body at the bottom of the trading range are cause for concern by the bulls. They wonder if this is the end of the uptrend and take measures to protect their gains.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 3:50:13 PM

The OEX closed the last 15-minute period above the Keltner resistance that bears would have preferred to see hold and now it rises toward 570-570.90 Keltner resistance. There's just no accounting today for what will happen next as the rise had looked to be a bear flag rise. This is why I advised readers who might have entered a bearish position to consider taking partial profits today at 2:42 when the OEX was near the LOD and reset stops on the rest. All looked bearish, but the action today was just crazy.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 3:44:36 PM

July Crude (cl04n) ... settled up $2.63, or 5.06% at $54.60 on Tuesday. Inventory data due out tomorrow morning at approx. 10:30 AM EDT. Looks as if traders didn't want to go home short. July Heating Oil (ho05n) lead the gains rising $0.91, or 6.24% to settle at $1.54.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 3:44:06 PM

Session low for euro futures here, -.8% at 1.2207. 30 tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 3:39:10 PM

Bigger zoom than bulls would like to see on the OEX. This 15-minute period is far from over, however, and it's possible that the resistance at 568.48-568.64 will hold on the 15-minute close.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 3:33:55 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,200.17, DIA $105.26, QQQQ $38.42

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 3:35:25 PM

Thanks, Jim, for the news on a refinery in Texas. I was wondering if it would require a shutdown, whatever it was that had happened.

By the way, it's nice to have your perspective the last couple of days.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 3:32:59 PM

And shooting higher as I posted my chart, currently up to 38.43 on a burst of volume.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 3:32:18 PM

QQQQ is tracing a narrow range at the bottom of its afternoon drop, the short cycle indicators buried in oversold as the wavelet tries to tick up. A break above R2 at 38.41 and the neckline at 38.45 will target the 72 SMA at 38.51, above which the current 30 min channel downphase would stall. Link

Jim Brown : 6/1/2005 3:28:47 PM

Linda there was a problem at a Chevron refinery. A pipeline burst but the problem was quickly fixed. No major downtime was expected. It was news but no impact.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 3:27:31 PM

Wasn't there something about a problem in a Texas refinery today, too, helping to drive crude costs higher? I can't find the news but remember hearing something on CNBC earlier. Of course, growing up in a refinery town in Texas (Port Arthur), I can say that there's often something going on with a refinery in Texas.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 3:22:01 PM

Remember the BIX's "breakout" above its broadening formation? Only a long, long upper shadow was left above that upper boundary of the broadening formation when the BIX fell along with other indices. This is why they're so treacherous. A supposed breakout turns out not to be a breakout.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 3:18:54 PM

July crude has reopened, down .175 at 54.425 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 3:18:19 PM

Volume breadth remains stronger on the Nasdaq and positive overall, but well off this morning's highs. Advancing volume leads 2.35:1 on the NYSE, 2.63:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ is now 20M shares above yesterday's volume of 75.3M, 3M shares away from the average of 98.2M.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 3:17:08 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 3:16:14 PM

When I mentioned next Keltner resistance on the OEX a few minutes ago, I forgot to mention the Keltner resistance currently being tested, with that resistance at 567.64-567.68. The OEX is slightly above that resistance and even closed the last 15-minute period slightly above it, but it hasn't really broken free of it just yet . . . and started dropping again as I typed. It's still testing.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 3:13:37 PM

Global ... Exit polls have Dutch rejecting EU constitution in referendum.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 3:08:58 PM

QQQQ's short cycle oscillators are oversold and price is bouncing from above 38.30, the lower h&s implied target unmet. The 30 and 60 min channels have rolled over, with 30 min channel resistance down to 38.70 and the lower channel support at 38.27 here. Below 38.53, the current 72 SMA, the downward bias should remain on the intraday indicators. Any short cycle bounce would be corrective below that level.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 3:08:10 PM

Zooming around maybe not quite done, as I feared, but this retest of just-broken support is natural, too. Bears would just rather not see it done in quite this manner. Keltner resistance now at 568.52-569.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 2:55:42 PM

September Crude (cl05u) $55.75 +5.12% (30-min delayed) ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 2:53:42 PM

July Crude (cl05n) $54.55 +4.96% (30-min delayed) ...

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 2:53:07 PM

Potential Keltner resistance building for the OEX near 568.70-569.00. There's no 15-minute Keltner support in the 567-567.40 zone, but there certainly is historical S/R there.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 2:50:04 PM

Nymex July crude finished +2.575 at 54.55, off a high of 54.725.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 2:47:55 PM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link , testing 30 and 60 min channel support here on a steep, high volume drop.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 2:47:04 PM

Bullish swing trade exit alert ... for Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) and the 100 shares here at $38.64 +3.92%

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 2:46:14 PM

Volume breadth has slipped on both exchanges, advancing shares now leading 2.52:1 on the NYSE and 2.28:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 2:45:32 PM

With a 15-minute close below 568.38, the OEX is setting a potential downside target of 566.04. Expect a retest of resistance at some point, though.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 2:43:58 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,200.05, DIA $105.22, QQQQ $38.42.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 2:42:50 PM

Short-term OEX bears might consider taking partial credit in this zone and lowering stops or perhaps setting them to breakeven on the rest. Support has thinned, but today's zooming around might not be over. First Keltner resistance is now near 569.70. A strong break and sustained break of the 568.60 zone, at least through a 15-minute close, sets a potential downside target of 566.18 . . . if all the zooming around is finished.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 2:39:45 PM

Airlines have been a positive/bullish contributor of late. Within the past hour, the TRAN did tick 3,645.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 2:38:35 PM

Dow Transport (TRAN) components at this Link ... sorted by Industry.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 2:34:44 PM

QQQQ (day chart at this Link ) is approaching 1st key support. This setup would look more decisively bearish if the short cycle indicators were less far along their downphase, but they have yet to enter oversold territory. A high volume break below 37.45 would set up today's high range as a complex top/sloppy h&s, projecting to an implied target around 38.20.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 2:28:36 PM

Ten year treasuries are bouncing again, TNX back to a 10.1 bp loss at 3.905%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 2:25:54 PM

Airline Index (XAL.X) 49.92 -0.25% ... probing morning lows. July Crude (cl05n) $54.00 +3.90% (30-min delayed) ....

Marc Eckelberry : 6/1/2005 2:26:19 PM

OIl is now trading at 54.60 and that can't stoke many more equity buyers into diving in with maxxed out daily oscillators to boot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 2:24:16 PM

Global ... DJ - New French Govt. in place by end of week.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/1/2005 2:23:59 PM

To be serious again, Nymex close coming up and shorts should be carfeul, although it looks like we topped out today.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/1/2005 2:22:23 PM

Jeff, I meant long. That is, retailers getting suckered in long at the top. What is that saying about hogs?

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 2:21:59 PM

Altria (MO) $66.62 -0.77% ... looks to be component of weakness last hour.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 2:21:58 PM

QQQQ broke the rising support line with a little burst of volume. Next support is at 38.45, the previous low, just above the 30 min channel bottom currently lining up with R2: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 2:21:06 PM

General Motors (GM) $31.51 -0.06% ... May U.S. sales fell 5% to 393,147, noting two fewer sales days this year. Truck sales fell 7% to 238,471 , while car sales fell 1% to 154,726. The company left its Q2 North American production forecast unchanged at 1.25 million vehicles, a 10% decline from last year. Q3 production slated for 1.1 million vehicles, down 9% from last year.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 2:18:17 PM

H&S or neutral triangle break and a strong one. Potential OEX support at 568.70 or so.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 2:14:07 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 2:12:36 PM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 2:16:17 PM

The OEX is dropping to test the bottom boundary of the neutral triangle. Keene would warn (has warned) of a possible stop-running break of the lower support and then a swoosh higher. Be careful of that possibility.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 2:05:56 PM

OEX 15-minute Keltner support things out now, but so far, the OEX holds to first support. That's at 570.25 on 15-minute closes and the OEX may be pulling back to test it.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 2:03:10 PM

Session high for Nymex crude, +2 at 53.975, +3.85%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 2:02:50 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 2:02:39 PM

Volume is picking up following a successful test of 38.55 QQQQ support. The wavelet oscillator is again turning up, but bulls will want to see a break of the previous 38.63 high to target the session high at 38.68. 30 min channel resistance has declined and now overlaps the rising 60 min channel top at 38.70.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 2:02:13 PM

H&S, inverse H&S, neutral triangle: Whatever that is on the top of the OEX's 15-minute chart, the OEX is testing the upper resistance as I type, with the OEX currenty at 570.79. A new HOD would confirm the upside breakout, but I still see a possibility for limited upside, perhaps toward 572.30 even if the the OEX did break out again. Right now, though, it's turning lower from that resistance.

Jane Fox : 6/1/2005 2:00:46 PM

TICKS +1000

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 1:54:26 PM

The OEX's H&S may now be morphing into a neutral triangle at the top of a climb. Different outlook entirely, if so. Bears need to see a quick downturn through the 569.95-ish neckline to keep the H&S into degenerating into a neutral triangle.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 1:58:01 PM

Swing trade long alert ... for 1/2 bullish in shares of PETsMart (PETM) $32.40 +2.04% here, stop $31.80, target $38.00. (will go 150 shares for $10,000.00 full position traders, give some room to round up at higher price if need be.)

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 1:51:23 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 1:48:11 PM

NYSE volume breadth leads the Nasdaq here, with ADV:DECV 5.5:1 on the NYSE and 4.38:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ is testing the 72 SMA here at 38.56.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 1:41:34 PM

PETsMart (PETM) $32.30 +1.73% Link ....

Jane Fox : 6/1/2005 1:40:51 PM

Dateline WSJ Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman William Donaldson will resign, The Wall Street Journal reported. Mr. Donaldson has run the regulatory agency since February 2003 and has at times taken a fairly tough stance on corporate governance, drawing complaints from some business leaders.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 1:39:48 PM

OEX falls toward the neckline of its H&S again, currently near 569.85 if I've drawn the neckline correctly. Still in the stop-running time of day, so if you're feeling inclined to test bearish waters, sure would be ready to jump right back out again if the OEX reverses course with a strong gain that's impulsive.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 1:37:36 PM

QQQQ back to the trendline here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 1:36:30 PM

Interesting chatter in the futures monitor ... "down boy, bown boy" .... "hope retail traders not getting sucked in..." Is Marc talking short, or longs?

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 1:34:21 PM

The gloves could come off .... Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,643.53 +1.22% Link

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 1:27:10 PM

The TRAN finally did break out above its mid-sized channel and is now driving higher. SOX is still at an appropriate right-shoulder level for its possible H&S, though. BIX catching Keltner support and rising again, but not to a new HOD. RLX near the HOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 1:25:14 PM

Make that 53.70 for Nymex crude, new high, +1.725 or 3.33%.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 1:25:05 PM

And the OEX rises right back into the right-shoulder level, a right shoulder that's becoming a bit extended now. The advdec line never confirmed its H&S, either, and extended that right shoulder too far.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 1:20:55 PM

Remember that H&S's can be rejected at the neckline. A real possibility this time of day is that this is a stop-running push down toward or even below the neckline, soon to be reversed.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 1:20:14 PM

The OEX turns toward the neckline of its potential H&S, with that neckline at about 569.75 if I've drawn it correctly.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 1:17:05 PM

Session high for Nymex crude, +1.35 at 53.325.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 1:11:56 PM

This bounce is tiring here as the wavelet oscillator tops out. A sloping head and shoulders above rising support (a "hunchback") would have this as the top of the right shoulder, but for that to be valid, the next big move should be a strong break below 38.55, then 38.50 on rising volume: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 1:11:55 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 1:04:24 PM

The OEX rises toward the appropriate right-shoulder level for its possible H&S, with that right-shoulder level at about 570.50, give or take a little.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 1:03:11 PM

The 4-week 15B t-bill auction generated a strong bid to cover ratio of 2.83, high rate of 2.74%, with indirect bidders (foreign central banks) taking 4.092B of the total.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 1:03:07 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 1:01:10 PM

SOX still rising into a potential right shoulder for a H&S . . . or else still rising into an invalidation of that potential formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 12:56:58 PM

Ten year note yields are up to an 8.6 bp loss at 3.92%, daily chart at this Link . We await the results of the Treasury's 4-week bill auction in the next few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 12:54:24 PM

A look at the SOX's 15-minute Keltner channel: Link The SOX looked weaker on a Keltner basis than some other indices this morning.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 12:49:47 PM

Some indices rise into possible right shoulders for the potential H&S's on their 15-minute charts. The SOX is one.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 12:49:37 PM

QQQQ bulls are trying to mount another bounce from the rising trendline, with a wavelet upphase kicking off against the ongoing short cycle downphase. A move above 38.60 should be enough to reverse the short cycle downphase, but there's resistance at teh session high and above at 38.75, the current 30 min channel top: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 12:35:44 PM

Next Keltner support for the SOX is at 431.50 or so.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 12:34:40 PM

The BIX did break out of that broadening formation I had shown earlier. It now drops back, and bulls want to see it find support near 366.50, the breakout point.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 12:33:38 PM

Intraday trendline support holding for QQQQ here: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 12:31:24 PM

The OEX is trying to steady on 569.58 Keltner support. Still watching for the possibility of a H&S forming.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 12:29:35 PM

The SOX has lost 433, curently down to 432.37 on a fresh short cycle sell signal. 72 SMA support is just above 431, 30 min chanel support 429.80: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 12:25:32 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 7.8 bp at 3.928%. Updated DAILY Interval bar chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement and Keltners. 3.8% anyone? Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 12:24:16 PM

Session high for Nymex crude here at 53.075, +2.1%.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 12:23:04 PM

Potential H&S on the advdec line, too. I don't know how others feel, but I've sometimes found it useful to watch these formation on the advdec line, as a confirmation or invalidation of the formations sometimes precede or corroborate similar formations on the equities. This one lacks a right shoulder as yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 12:20:08 PM

Gold has actually ticked positive, +.40 at 419.30, with silver holding a 13 cent or 1.74% gain at 7.585. HUI is up 5 or 2.68% to 190.78.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 12:20:01 PM

Ford Motor (F) $10.02 +0.5% ... said May U.S. sales fell 11% to 283,994 vehicles, with truck sales off 13% to 182,283. Car sales fell 5% to 182,283 with its Mustang a bright spot as sales there jumped 47% to 19,721, that model's highest unit total in 25 years. The automaker said it plans to build 905,000 vehicles in Q2, unchanged from prior targets given to industry.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 12:18:23 PM

Sharp drop just now in ZN bond futures to 113 27/64, TNX up to a 8.8 bp loss at 3.918%.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 12:14:56 PM

BIG drop in the OEX. Nothing measured or flag-like about it, but the OEX tests 569.52 Keltner support and may rise from it. If so, watch for the possibility of a H&S on this chart, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 12:14:53 PM

A short cycle downphase is in progress here for QQQQ, but volume has so far been light on the decline, only starting to show signs of picking up now. Volume breadth has declined only slightly, ADV:DECV down to 4.6:1 for the NYSE and 4.4:1 for the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 12:13:34 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 12:13:23 PM

The SOX turns down toward 432.50 intraday support. It's possible that the SOX is forming a H&S on the 15-minute chart, but if so, it might find support near 432.50 and turn up again into a right shoulder before we know if such a formation is going to be invalidated or confirmed.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 12:09:30 PM

QQQQ testing 38.55 support here: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 12:05:46 PM

The BIX is hitting upper Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. Various indices either approach, test, or have broken above that resistance. Not the TRAN or the SOX, though, with both of these typically leading indices being stalled at the middle-sized channel, so that neither has created a breakout signal to set the new target at the outer channel line. That should be a bit concerning for bulls, but shouldn't give too much hope to bears just yet.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 12:05:05 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 12:02:13 PM

Having data feed problems with QCharts. Should be up and running in minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 11:59:07 AM

Politics ... Jeb Bush dismisses father's suggestion to run for president.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 11:54:35 AM

Once again, there was very light volume on that slow, corrective decline, and higher volume coming in on this uptick. ADV:DECV is currently 6.1:1 on the NYSE and 5.32:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 11:47:54 AM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $5.99 -0.33% ... Will note very similar "Kelterns" for SIRI/XMSR.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 11:46:27 AM

XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $32.90 +2.46% ... making a move after recent break above its rising 200-day SMA ($31.82).

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 11:45:18 AM

The SOX is having difficulty with a Keltner resistance level currently extending up to 434.83, with the SOX piercing it but not able to stay above it on 15-minute closes. This is on a 15-minute chart, with presumed-strong daily Keltner resistance a bit higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 11:44:29 AM

Session high for crude oil here, +.875 or 1.68% at 52.85. 50-tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 11:40:32 AM

The Dow hasn't yet hit the upside 10,596.84 target suggested by the 15-minute Keltner chart. I'm not certain it will, although other indices have hit or exceeded their targets. The TRAN hasn't been able to even set an analogous target, though, finding resistance at a lower Keltner level.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 11:35:45 AM

Ten year yields have recovered off the lows to a 10.3 bp loss at 3.903%, but equities are holding just off the session highs despite a number of short cycle bearish divergences. QQQQ's 72 SMA is up to 38.27 now, well below current levels. 38.55 remains first support below, while 30 min channel resistance has risen to 38.70.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 11:30:13 AM

Dollar still trying to steady after the post-10:00 drop.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 11:29:06 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 367.66 +1.31% ... just kissed WEEKLY R1. Wells Fargo (WFC) $61.37 +1.60% ... day late and dollar short.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 11:24:25 AM

Next daily Keltner resistance on the RUT is at 628.82 with the RUT now at 624.50.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 11:21:31 AM

Iraq ... Rumsfeld saying many good things happening in Iraq despite recent attacks.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 11:20:34 AM

Nice little "pop" in NH's last hour.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 11:20:13 AM

OEX's upper Keltner target at 571.81, less than a point away. A new breakout could occur, but bulls need to have profit-protecting plans in place from here on up.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 11:19:48 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link ... Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 11:19:20 AM

Keltner breakouts everywhere. That's usually a time when bulls should be following prices higher with their stops, but not necessarily a good time yet to come in with bearish entries. Sometimes it is, but the DOW, for example, has now set a Keltner target of 10,595.81 and has been zooming fast toward that target while I typed.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 11:19:06 AM

New highs have just printed on rising volume, suggesting a bull flag breakout. If so, 38.55 QQQQ should act as upper support. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 11:17:04 AM

SOX not breaking to a new HOD. The RUT is, though.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 11:16:36 AM

OEX is breaking above the 61.8% retracement of the March-April decline. Bulls want to see this hold.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 11:15:19 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 11:15:02 AM

This morning's zoom in equities has been accompanied by a sharp decline in the dollar against the yen and a bit more ordered drop against the euro. Currently, the dollar attempts to steady against the yen, with the outcome as yet unknown (steadying on the 30-minute 100/130-ema's) and gains again against the euro. Perhaps equity bulls won't like it if the dollar does steady and turn higher again.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 11:12:20 AM

The TRAN pulls back, but it's not a steep fall, at least not yet, but instead has more of a flag-like look. The RUT's pullback definitely has a flag-like loo, at least so far. The BIX has just pushed to a new HOD.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 11:10:23 AM

Oh, my. I tend to stay away from those crazy-behaving stocks, so I'm just now looking at GOOG to see what everyone is talking about.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 11:09:47 AM

All-time high alert ... Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 937.09 +2.73% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 11:09:47 AM

Volume breadth holds firm, 4.78 advancing NYSE shares for each declining, 5.16 advancing Nasdaq shares for each declining.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 11:09:17 AM

I tend to agree with Jim's assessment of what's going on today. I remember my first high school course in physics when you learned that during the trajectory of flight after a ball was thrown, the transition from going up to going down is separated by a period of zero velocity. Is that what's happening now? However, if a jet zoomed up under that ball just as it was hanging at zero velocity, it wouldn't necessarily fall, would it? So I also agree with Jim's assessment that more short-covering could begin if this doesn't retrace soon.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 11:04:44 AM

The BIX is testing the day's high again.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 11:04:05 AM

Ever seen a short squeeze in Junk Bonds?

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 11:01:14 AM

This morning's action has skewed Keltner lines beyond all usefulness, and it will take a while before they're telling us much information again. What we do have is the holding of resistance at 570 . . . so far. If you're the kind of person who believes in hitting past resistance with a new bearish entry, then you've probably already done so, but keep your stops tight. There's yet little evidence of a rollover. Bulls, though, need to be just a vigilant and have their profit-protecting plans in place because this could just keel right over.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 10:57:36 AM

Session high for ZN bond futures at 113 43/64, with TNX currently -10.8 bps at 3.898%. The Treasury will be auctioning 15B in 4-week t-bills today, the results of which will be released at 1PM.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 10:56:27 AM

The SOX may have been dropping fast, but not fast enough or far enough to have retraced more than 50% of its range today, so it's still in the "bullish" half of its day's range. Keltner-wise, it looks vulnerabel to 432, with the SOX currently at 433.35.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 10:53:33 AM

As has been true lately, the RLX helped drive the OEX higher. It's pulling back below 440 again after reaching a HOD of 441.25.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 10:50:22 AM

10 Most Actives ... QQQQ $38.48 +1.05%, INTC $27.38 +1.55%, SPY $120.48 +0.82%, CSCO $19.71 +1.64%, MSFT $25.86 +0.23%, NT $2.71 +4.24%, JDSU $1.58 +3.26%, GOOG $287.20 +3.55%, ORCL $12.87 +0.62%, SMH $34.72 +0.93%

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 10:50:18 AM

QQQQ is continuing its pullback on declining volume, still printing above the upper 30 min and 60 min keltner bands (hence the red paintballs above the candles). Link This pullback is so far just a wavelet pullback, with the short cycle indicators not yet in a downphase. While I believe we've just seen the end of the trending daily cycle upphase, the pattern is flaggy and volume is light. The 72 SMA is way below current levels at 38.18, and a break below that level is needed to confirm any weakness.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 10:48:29 AM

See why it's so difficult to trust even such a strong thrust higher when many indices build broadening formations? Link When seen this way, the strong thrust higher on the BIX was nothing more than a bounce from one side of a broadening formation to the other. The BIX could still breakout to the upside, but it hasn't yet.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 10:44:38 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 10:41:43 AM

Gold is still negative, down .90 at 418, despite a 1.56% gain in silver and a 2.29% gain in the HUI, breaking back above 190.04.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 10:41:27 AM

SOX really dropping after last 15-minute period's doji.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 10:37:06 AM

Buy Program Premiums received 3 addition buy program premiums since the 10:00 AM mark. Last one was 10:30-10:35 AM EDT.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 10:34:59 AM

The OEX gapped up again this 15-minute period, but it's again leaving (at least now, early in the 15-minute period) a candle shadow at the top of the current period's range. Some dangerous signals here to bulls, but no confirmation that a bearish position is right yet, either.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 10:32:39 AM

Today the OEX has spanned the distance from the 50% retracement of the March-April decline to the 61.8% retracement. It just about did the same yesterday, but going the other direction. The formation since the middle of May has a bit of a broadening look to it, and this is characteristic of trading as the broadening pattern widens. When is there a breakout? The OEX looks as if it's currently testing the top of a rising trendline topping the prices since 5/23, so a test of an upside breakout or rollover level occurs now. Broadening formations are notoriously difficult to trade just because of this kind of action.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 10:31:44 AM

Swing Trade Naked Put place your bid alert ... Place bids to close out the DIA Jun $100 Puts (DIA-RV) at $0.05. DIA $105.61 +0.93% here.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 10:28:44 AM

Not a pretty 15-minute OEX candle as this 15-minute period nears its end.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 10:27:41 AM

The TNX is now down 11 bps at 3.896%. Crude oil up .35 at 52.325.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 10:27:40 AM

QQQQ $38.50 +1.10% ... updated DAILY Interval bar chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY pivot retracement as well as Keltner bands at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 10:25:29 AM

QQQQ is pulling back from a high of 38.60, still beyond the upper keltner bands and thus liable to a sharp correction. Link There was huge volume on this move, and price is at a new high for the May rally. This could qualify as the blowoff top to the daily cycle upphase, but it's anyone's guess. I'd love to know whose money was behind that huge move.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 10:25:46 AM

Careful, OEX bulls. The current OEX candle gapped up and now is currently leaving a candle shadow above 15-minute Keltner resistance. Not a pretty candle if it holds this way into the end of the 15-minute period. Bears, be careful here, too, and don't jump too readily to assumptions. If you're tempted to enter a bearish position on this test of 570, be sure you keep a tight stop and take an exit when you need to do so. Next resistance is at 571.55 on the 15-minute chart, but much higher on the daily one.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 10:22:25 AM

SOX testing daily Keltner resistance at 436.02, but that resistance does turn higher. Still, gains might be limited with that resistance overhead . . . unless there's to be a breakout, of course. The SOX doesn't usually break out of that channel, at least not for more than a day or two.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 10:20:15 AM

This is the best volume breadth I've seen in a long time, ADV:DECV now 5.05:1 on the NYSE and 5.76:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 10:20:08 AM

The OEX is now hitting the 570-ish resistance that has been holding it back for more than a week. The 61.8% retracement of the March-April decline is just above 570.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 10:19:16 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 10:16:53 AM

LTX Corp. (LTXX) $5.00 +4% ... X gets the square.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 10:14:45 AM

QQQQ update at this Link , no sign of weakness or pullback at the top of this vertical move.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 10:16:13 AM

QQQQ $38.51 +1.15% ... nice bounce from morning test of WEEKLY Pivot. Breaking above double overlap in WEEKLY R1 and Weekly Pivot retracement at $38.44. Some squeeze potential here to MONTHLY R1 and "zone of resistance" from $39.17-$39.27.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 10:13:41 AM

CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 201.44 +0.94% ... above the psychological 200.00 level.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 10:12:42 AM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $38.13 +2.50% ... hot out of the gate.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 10:11:23 AM

TNX is down 9.1 bps now, a 2.27% decline to 3.915%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 10:10:57 AM

eBay (EBAY) $39.00 +2.60% ... reversing higher double top buy signal.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 10:10:53 AM

And there went OEX 567, too. The 569-ish level is next resistance, but nothing has stopped the OEX yet.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 10:09:14 AM

SOX moving up toward the top of the recent consolidation pattern. Buying pressure (as measured by the ADX) is actually declining, though, but there's just no selling pressure yet either. Bulls shouldn't like that declining buying pressure line (since 5/19) though.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 10:08:06 AM

Volume breadth is 3.08:1 on the NYSE, 3.18:1 on the Nasdaq in favor of advancing shares. QQQQ has gone vertical, blasting clear of daily R1 and all the keltner tops. This would look like a bad tick but it isn't. Did they catch a bad guy?

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 10:06:15 AM

Marc, the oil data is delayed to tomorrow.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 10:05:39 AM

OEX 567 still looks like fairly strong resistance, but the OEX and advdec line are just zooming.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 10:04:55 AM

VIX.X 12.78 -3.83% .... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.60, 12.95, Piv= 13.20, 13.55, 13.80.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 10:03:25 AM

It looks as if the OEX is going to push all the way up to the 567 resistance and test that.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 10:02:45 AM

QQQQQ has gone vertical here, testing daily R1 at 38.24 and breaking 30 and 60 min channel resistance. If this is a blowoff, the bears need to push back within the next few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 10:02:30 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 10:03:28 AM

Headlines:

U.S. APRIL CONSTRUCTION SPENDING UP 0.5%

U.S. APRIL PVT. CONSTRUCTION SPENDING UP 0.8%

U.S. APRIL RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SPENDING UP 0.5%

U.S. MARCH CONSTRUCTION SPENDING REVISED 0.6% VS. 0.5%

U.S. APRIL PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION SPENDING DOWN 0.4%

U.S. APRIL PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL SPENDING UP 1.3%

U.S. MAY ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX 51.4% VS 53.3% APRIL

U.S. MAY ISM FACTORY INDEX BELOW 52.1% CONSENSUS

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 10:01:19 AM

ISM 51.4 vs. 52 exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 10:01:05 AM

Construction spending .5% vs. .6% exp.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 10:00:58 AM

Buy Program Premium

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 10:00:31 AM

The Fed has announced a 3.5B overnight repo to refund the 6.75B expiring, net drain 3.25B.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 10:00:05 AM

The OEX is breaking above the first level of Keltner resistance, 565.87 and 567 resistance still ahead.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 9:58:32 AM

Tyco Intl. (TYC) $28.98 +0.17% Link .... announces it has received notice of an unsolicited "mini-tender" offer by TRC Capital Corp. to purchase 3.5 million of TYC common shares, which represents less than 0.2% of the shares outstanding. TRC's offer of $28.00 was made on 05/17/05. Tyco (TYC) recommends shareholders reject the offer.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 9:52:15 AM

Session high for ten year bonds at 113 7/32, with TNX breaking the overnight low, currently -6.3 bps at 3.943%.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 9:51:38 AM

The OEX has inched just above the 100-sma and the 50% retracement of the decline from the March high into the April low, but really just pauses there ahead of the 10:00 releases. It has not edged above first Keltner resistance, although it's giving it a try. For those of you not closing out positions ahead of the numbers--a perfectly legitimate tactic for conservative traders--you might then consider whether you want to widen or tighten stops ahead of possible volatility.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 9:51:16 AM

Note that the weekly petroleum inventory data will be delayed to tomorrow due to Monday's holiday.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 9:50:49 AM

Headlines:

09:46 DJ Fed's Fisher: Fed Has More Room To Raise Rates

09:48 DJ Fed's Fisher: Low Yields Reflect Confidence In Fed

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 9:54:14 AM

Global ... Venezuela May CPI up 2.5% vs. consensus of +1.5%. The jump from April's 1.3% gain was largely due to the government's decision in late April to increase the minimum wage by 26%. Accumulated annual inflation in the country now stands at 7.4%, down from 9% during the same period last year.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 9:46:09 AM

Gold is holding its losses, -1.4 at 417.5, while silver is holding its strong gains, up .076 at 7.53 on the heels of yesterday's rally. The miners are positive, XAU +.28 at 86.55 and HUI +1.21 at 186.99.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 9:43:53 AM

Treasuries ... 10-year yield ($TNX.X) down a sharp 4.8 bp at 3.958%. Approaching 10/25/04 low.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 9:42:58 AM

The BIX gapped below yesterday's close, tried to fill the gap and now falls back a little. All this is taking place below the 200-sma but above the 5/25 low.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 9:42:31 AM

QQQQ continues to chop below 38.10, well short of the 72 SMA at 38.13. 30 and 60 min channel support line up at 38.00, resistance at 38.25. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 9:41:55 AM

RUT is climbing--just a little--but isn't declining at least. The SOX is near the flat-line level.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 9:40:23 AM

Remember that we have economic numbers, and important ones, coming in a few minutes. For now, the Keltner outlook on the OEX is as follows: It's set a downside target of 562.58 on the 15-minute chart (lower on the daily), but needs to maintain 15-minute closes below a Keltner line currently at 565.16 to give most hope to the bears of achieving that target. Next resistance at 566 and then near 567, with the 567 resistance looking strong.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 9:37:08 AM

United Online (UNTD) $11.59 -10.43% ... weak early. No news that I can find.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 9:37:08 AM

Volume breadth is positive at the open, advancing shares leading declining 1.18:1 on the NYSE and 1.42:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 9:36:01 AM

Nymex crude +.35 here at 52.235, current high 52.45.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 9:35:11 AM

The OEX is bounces straight up to the 100-sma at 564.66, with the OEX currently at 564.65.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 9:34:04 AM

The OEX gaps down but immediately bounces. Keltner resistance lines are skewed a bit by the gap lower, but lie near 565.16 and again at 565.98.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 9:32:57 AM

SOX opens near the flat-line level.

Jeff Bailey : 6/1/2005 9:31:41 AM

Google (GOOG) $277.27 ... higher at $283.20 and #2 most active stock pre-market after CSFB raises its price target to $350 from $275, saying it believes shares have further to go given the company's core advertising revenue, the impact of new business like Gmail, Froogle and Local, and that valuation is far from stretched.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 9:28:05 AM

Despite the bond rally, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced that its Market Composite Index fell to 709.1, a decrease of 2.8% from 729.6 one week earlier. Unadjusted, it remains lower by 3.4% but higher by 12.7% from its year-ago level.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 9:15:54 AM

The OEX turned down Tuesday, confirming a three-candle reversal signal known as an evening-star formation. It ended the day having inched just below the 50% retracement of the decline off the March high into the April low. It also inched just below the 100-sma, with those at 564.81 and 564.70. The OEX also inched just below daily Keltner support currently at 565.21 and below a 15-minute Keltner line currently at 565.30, setting a downside target of 562.64. The daily Keltner chart suggests that a lower decline is possible, closer to 559-561. If the OEX does continue to decline, though, and if I were in a bearish position, I'd have profit-protecting plans in mind for that 562.50-563.00 zone. In fact, I recommended yesterday near the close that conservative bears consider taking partial profits.

There's a caution. Support could have been just overrun near the close. That doesn't look like what happened--looks like a bear flag broke its support--but be aware of that possibility. I wouldn't let a winning position turn into a losing one.

In the Wrap this weekend, I cautioned that readers might watch both the SOX and the RUT for early guidance, as both were challenging the tops of descending regression channels that had been in place for a while. A breakout might have been important as might have been a rollover. The RUT formed a doji, so there was some hesitation and no breakthrough, but not a pullback yet. The SOX declined and may be starting a rollover, but is still inside a several day consolidation formation, a sort of neutral triangle.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 9:13:20 AM

Re- Reader question concerning recent activity in CME:

CHICAGO MERC AVG DAILY VOLUME MAY 4M CONTRACTS, UP 18%

CME reported that average daily volume for May was 4.0 mln contracts, up 18% from the same period a year ago. Average daily volume on the CME Globex electronic trading platform was 2.9 mln contracts, a 57% increase from May 2004.

Electronic trading represented a record 73% of total CME volume in May, compared with 55% in the prior-year period and up from 70% in April.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 9:04:20 AM

The overnight weakness has QQQQ's 30 min cycle upphase stalled and the 60 min cycle downphase reasserting itself. The daily cycle is ticking down within deep overbought territory following yesterday's lower low. First support below 38 is at 37.92, which consitutes a double bottom (yesterday morning and last night), below which comes daily cycle support at 37.60. The intraday cycles will maintain a bearish bias so long as price holds south of the 7200 tick SMA at 38.13.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 8:35:36 AM

Nymex crude is holding its gains, +.40 at 52.375, 7.5 cents off the high.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 8:26:07 AM

Ten year notes are holding their impressive gains as the euro works its way lower, current low 1.223 and quoted here -.55% at 1.2238. Ten year yields are down 3 bps at 3.976%, off an overnight low of 3.951%. This represents levels not seen since October of last year, an impressive rally off the March TNX highs. Daily chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/1/2005 7:46:57 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1193.5, NQ 1545, YM 10486 and QQQQ down .03 to 38.05, off a session low of 37.92. Gold is up .30 to 419.20, silver +.025 to a session high of 7.479, crude oil +.35 to 52.325 and ten year notes are up 11/32 to 113 3/16.

We await the 10AM releases of Construction spending, est. .7%, and the ISM Index for May, est. 52.2.

Linda Piazza : 6/1/2005 6:26:36 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei posted a gain last night, but other Asian markets were mixed. Amidst much discussion about the future of the European Union and dismal PMI reports, European markets gain. Our futures are higher, but only modestly so. Rumors circulated last night that the Chinese yuan might be a topic of discussion at the upcoming G7 meeting on June 10-11, with a Chinese move expected to strengthen Asian currencies against the dollar. So far, this morning, though, the dollar is reaching new recent highs against the yen. As of 6:20 EST, gold was down $0.70, and crude, up $0.39 to $52.36. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei opened Wednesday more than 50 points underwater and then charged straight up above the flat-line level. After stabilizing for the rest of the morning and through the afternoon, it zoomed up again in a late-day surge, closing higher by 53.08 points or 0.47%, at 11,329.67. April's overtime pay rose 1.6% year over year, much more than April's 0.1% year-over-year growth. Both total cash earnings and overtime working hours increased after both had fallen the previous month. Regular working hours and overall hours did fall, however.

Japan's auto manufacturers rose after a newspaper speculated that Mitsubishi Motors would report increasing sales of new cars for the first time in about eighteen months, and Nissan Diesel Motor Company announced a share buyback program. In stock-specific news, Yahoo Japan may have been tapped by two Japanese brokerages to add online stock trading services to its Web site.

Other Asian markets were mixed, with one article blaming concerns about crude prices for limiting gains. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.66%, and South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.07%. In South Korea, May's consumer prices fell 0.2% month over month, an unexpected and disappointing result. Exports did not grow as much as expected, rising only 11.8% above the year-ago level. Manufacturers' confidence fell. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.70%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed higher by 0.04%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 2.03%.

Most European markets climb as the Dutch referendum on the EU constitution goes on, with the Netherlands widely expected to vote "no." EU commissioner Bolkenstein reportedly admitted that he regretted adopting the euro and dropping the guilder. An article in Stern magazine notes increasing discussions about pressures that might lead to a "meltdown in a couple of years, the collapse of the Euro," according to one discussion participant, with some of those pressures including building differences in inflation and growth rates within the union, but later reports dispute the fact that discussions about the failure of the union were held. One supposed participant in those discussions disputed his participation, calling it such a discussion "absurd." The German lower house of the Parliament has called for a legal opinion on the right of a European Union member to leave the euro.

Investors saw a number of economic releases, too, including Germany's April retail sales, dropping 3% year over year as compared to March's number, a worse-than-expected result. One article notes that due to an ongoing change in the way the survey is conducted, the data was not complete, lacking month-over-month seasonally adjusted data. The complete report will not be available for about a month. Still, the preliminary results did warn of possibly weaker consumer spending in the second quarter. Throughout the eurozone, a number of countries reported May's PMI, with Italy's falling to 47.1; France's, to 48.8; and Germany's, to 49.4. One article reports that all components of that German number other than export orders look dreary. The eurozone's PMI fell to 48.7, its lowest level since July 2003. The eurozone's Q1 GDP growth was unchanged from the preliminary expectation of a 0.5% rise quarter over quarter. Household consumption and government spending and investment all contracted. The EU Commission trimmed its prediction for Q2's GDP to 0.1-0.5% from 0.2-0.6%. The U.K.'s CIPS manufacturing survey fell to 47.3, its lowest level in more than two years, with the April number revised lower, too. Equities may be benefiting as investors speculate that the Bank of England may end its tightening cycle.

The weaker euro has helped some European exporters. In early trading, automakers gained. Technology stocks eased, however. In stock-specific news, U.K. bank HBOS climbed slightly after affirming that it would report profit growth in the six months ending June 30. Exchange Euronext stayed steady after reporting Q1 net profit near the higher end of its expected range. However, derivatives trading fell and cash trading was flat. In other news, Lehman Brothers boosted Dutch insurer Aegon's rating to an overweight rating, but Morgan Stanley trimmed British satellite broadcaster BskyB PLC's rating to an underweight one from its previous equal-weight rating. Morgan Stanley noted increasing competition.

As of 6:15 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 12.40 points or 0.25%, to 4,976.40. The CAC 40 was higher by 16.97 points or 0.41%, to 4,137.70. The DAX was higher by 18.91 points or 0.42%, to 4,479.54.

Market Monitor Archives