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OI Technical Staff : 6/6/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 9:41:18 PM

Full text of Greenspan's comments in Beijing at this Link .

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 7:59:20 PM

VIX.X some funky readings early this morning. So I'd suggest day traders use today's h/l/c of 13.00, 12.21, 12.28 to derive tomorrow's DAILY Pivot Levels of ... 11.71, 11.99, Piv= 12.50, 12.78, 13.29.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 7:53:38 PM

eCOST.com (ECST) $5.35 +38.24% ... last tick in extended was $5.46. A $5.50 open would be a double top buy signal. (see 01:26:25 and 03:51:10)

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 7:06:50 PM

Royale Energy (ROYL) $7.51 +30.15% ... last tick in extended session was $8.15. "Way overdone" in my opinion. (see 02:01:15 and 02:27:19)

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 6:17:30 PM

Net2Phone (NTOP) $1.79 +2.28% ... plunges to $1.59 in extended session after the VOIP company reports Q3 earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 5:30:55 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 4:36:15 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 4:28:18 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 4:23:01 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... sold NAKED three (3) of the S&P 500 SPX Jun 1,220 Calls (SZP-FD) at $1.30. Will place a protective stop on these at $2.80, but targeting "poof" or $0.05.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 3:56:36 PM

The OEX is still within that potential inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart. The bulls are sure trying today, but they haven't been able to quite get the job done.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 3:51:10 PM

Dumping 500 shares of eCost.com (ECST) $5.32 +37.5% here.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 3:51:03 PM

The OEX isn't able to maintain values above 566.29.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 3:45:03 PM

The short cycle oscillators lost their downphase on the break back above the 72 SMA, and the oscillators on the 30 and 60 min cycle upphases never had time to stall. The intraday bias remains up, but with QQQQ all of 3 cents above Friday's close, the intraday cycle upphases are looking corrective only. Below 38.20, the bounce is looking very weak, particularly given how oversold the intraday cycles were as of Friday's close. The daily cycle remains on its new sell signal.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 3:40:41 PM

The OEX leaped right up to test 566.29, with the HOD so far at 566.21, but with Keltner mid-channel resistance at 566.62-567.30.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 3:39:22 PM

Cendant (CD) $21.75 +1.54% ... high of the session. Sets up for test of rounding flat 200-day SMA ($21.78)

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 3:33:47 PM

This morning, the OEX's chart showed a potential inverse H&S and now it shows another, a bigger one. The neckline is somewhat difficult to pinpoint, but I'd probably use 566.29. The problem, however, is that there's mid-channel resistance from 566.61-567.22, just above the confirmation level. Just lots of chopping around without a clear outcome today. The OEX is consolidating above the 100-sma and 50% retracement of the decline off the March high into the April high. Still in its consolidation zone, and if it ends the day here today, there's still no resolution.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 3:31:16 PM

July Crude Oil (cl05n) settled down $0.54, or -0.98% at $54.49 on the NYMEX in Monday's trade. Session low of $53.80 did find buyers between our WEEKLY Pivot of $53.75 and 61.8% PINK retracement of $54.01.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 3:23:49 PM

The OEX did close that last 15-minute period where bears wanted it to close that period, but immediately bounced right back up to test that Keltner line, currently at 565.10. It's slightly above it, but hasn't closed above it. This is the reason that I didn't feel comfortable a while ago suggesting either a new bullish or new bearish entry.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 3:23:32 PM

QQQQ's just bounced to 38.09, the 72 SMA resistance line. The short cycles are in a downphase, and a rejection here is what 30 min cycle bears want to see, followed by a break of 38.00.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 3:14:56 PM

The OEX is breaking below the bear flag's support. Bulls want to see it close the 15-minute period below a Keltner line currently at 565.10.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 3:13:47 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 3:07:36 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 3:07:15 PM

QQQQ tests rising intraday support here after dipping below the 72 SMA: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 3:06:41 PM

The BIX is still in a descending pattern of lower lows and lower highs on the 15-minute chart. There was bullish price/CCI divergence at the last swing low this morning. The OEX now challenges the Keltner resistance that turned it lower Friday, but it's challenging it longer than it did Friday.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 3:03:21 PM

Session high for ZN ten year bond futures at 113 11/64, TNX closed down 1.7 bps at 3.962%. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 3:04:25 PM

The OEX bounces from the 15-minute Keltner support currently at 565.13. Keltner resistance is found at 565.75 on a 15-minute close, and then at 566.68-567.26.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 2:53:32 PM

Still that possible reverse h&s setup, but the short cycle storm clouds are gathering with the oscillators beginning to curl in overbought territory: Link . Below 38.08, the 30 min cycle upphase would stall and the benefit of the doubt will shift to the bears.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 2:52:14 PM

The RLX is back below the neckline of that inverse H&S. It never could get any traction above that neckline, but now OEX bears want to see it get some traction to the downside.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 2:50:57 PM

10 Most Actives ... SUNW $3.60 -1.63%, INTC $27.15 -0.65%, QQQQ $38.13 +0.07%, CSCO $19.37 -0.15%, MSFT $25.36 -0.27%, SPY $119.94 -0.17%, LU $2.78 -2.11%, ATYT $13.86 -9.17%, AAPL $38.11 -0.31%, JDSU $1.59 +0.63%

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 2:50:32 PM

Big drop on the OEX, but it's still maintaining this morning's bear flag's support, with that support currently at about 564.85. If that flag should break, those in bearish plays need to guard their profits from 564 down to today's LOD.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 2:41:18 PM

Watch for the possibility of a double-top on the OEX's 15-minute chart. The OEX faces Keltner resistance and intraday resistance near 566, but I unfortunately do not see firm enough evidence of a rollover to suggest a new bearish entry nor firm enough evidence that the OEX will be able to climb above this important 566-567 level to suggest a bullish one.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 2:36:24 PM

The BIX has been facing the Keltner resistance that turned it back Friday, with that resistance at 362.28 on 15-minute closes. The BIX is at 362.18 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 2:31:44 PM

July crude oil finished -.55 at 54.475, -1.00%. Session low was 53.90, the high 55.55.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 2:30:44 PM

The SOX currently faces Keltner resistance that looks strong in the 432.77-432.92 region. First support at 431.81. A break over that Keltner resistance would then find resistance thinning, so SOX bears don't want to see that happen on a 15-minute closing basis.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 2:28:37 PM

The RLX has not been able to make much upward progress after breaking above the neckline of its inverse H&S, hitting Keltner resistance soon afterwards. However, it so far maintains 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 443.51. As long as it does, it's like to continue chalenging that 444.70-ish resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 2:27:40 PM

Somebody else is too!

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 2:27:19 PM

Royale Energy (ROYL) $7.43 +28.76 ... dumping 1,000 in personal account here

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 2:26:25 PM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles continue in gear to the upside despite the failure at 38.20 resistance. The bullish case would have a pullback to a higher low, perhaps the 38.08 area, followed by another attempt on 38.20 as a reverse h&s neckline: Link . A failure at that level would stall the 30 min cycle upphase, but bears need a break of the 38 level to turn the channel back down.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 2:22:28 PM

Crude oil is bouncing from a low of 53.90, currently -.70 at 54.325. Ten year notes are holding a light gain, with TNX down 1.1 bps at 3.968. Volume breadth has flipped to just above neutral on both exchanges, 1.02:1 in favor of NYSE advancing shares, 1.24:1 for Nasdaq advancers.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 2:13:33 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 2:10:35 PM

The Keltner charts weren't lying when they said that Keltner support looked stronger than nearby resistance, were they? Those the balance shifts a little, so the outlook is rather neutral as the OEX rises toward 566-567 resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 2:05:53 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,197.43, DIA $104.69, QQQQ $38.19

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 2:03:57 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 1:59:04 PM

QQQQ bounces to test 30 min channel resistance, above which the 60 min channel top lines up with price confluence and Friday's S2 at 38.20. 4-day chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 2:01:15 PM

Royale Energy (ROYL) $6.04 +4.67% ... announces new natural gas discovery in Rocky Mountians Uintah Basin. Saying new pool discovery with successful test from a 40' Morrison reservoir with its Moon Canyon #2 well drilled on 22 square mile proprietary 3D seismic survey. This well offsets a Dakota formation well drilled in 1961 with over 2 billion cubic feet of gas.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 1:54:58 PM

Next Keltner resistance (above that currently being tested) for the OEX is at 565.67, with other resistance 30gathering at 566.76-567.30.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 1:53:33 PM

The RLX confirmed its inverse H&S. It did it right during a typical stop-running time of day, and it's heading right to 444.60 upside Keltner resistance. However, so far, it's holding above that neckline.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 1:51:54 PM

CIM High Yield (AMEX:CIM) $4.08 -0.24% ... announces $0.0305 per share payment, payable on 06/24/05 to shareholders of record 06/16/05. SEC Yield of 8.970% at current price.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 1:51:36 PM

Volume breadth has shifted to fractionally positive for the Nasdaq, 1.06:1 in favor of advancing shares as volume makes it to 1/3 of Friday's 97M.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 1:45:44 PM

QQQQ tests the descending intraday resistance line here, breaking it as I type: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 1:44:12 PM

RLX at the neckline for its inverse H&S.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 1:39:46 PM

Session low for Nymex crude here at 54.25, -.775 or 1.41%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 1:38:51 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 1:38:30 PM

The TRAN is sitting just above its daily 100-sma today, with that average at 3610 and the TRAN at 3617.90. The TRAN is still within its weeks-long consolidation pattern.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 1:36:04 PM

Still nothing definitive yet about the OEX's pattern or it's Keltner outlook. Keltner-wise, support continues to look slightly stronger than resistance on that 15-minute chart, but the OEX hasn't been able to capitalize on that outlook. Support is now between the OEX's current 564.62 level and 564, and the OEX needs to drive below 564 again to get anything going to the downside. Bears need to keep their profit-protecting plans in place.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 1:36:03 PM

Headlines:

[AAPL, INTC, IBM, FSL] APPLE TO USE INTEL CHIPS IN MACS STARTING NEXT YEAR

[AAPL, IBM, INTC, FSL] APPLE CONFIRMS IT WILL USE INTEL CHIPS IN MAC COMPUTERS

[AAPL, IBM, INTC, FSL] APPLE TO HAVE ALL MACS USING INTEL CHIPS BY END OF '07

[AAPL, IBM, INTC, FSL] APPLE TO OFFER DEVELOPER TRANSITION KIT FOR CHIP CHANGE

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 1:35:35 PM

QQQQ update at this Link with the short cycle indicators reduced to chop after the rollover from 38.11. A wavelet upphase is in progress, but price has so far stalled at a lower high. This is low-volume high-anxiety for bulls and bears alike.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 1:27:18 PM

The RLX comes up again to test the neckline for that inverse H&S, with that neckline now at about 443.70. If bulls don't push this up across the neckline soon, that formation is going to begin to look like a bearish rising wedge instead. The RLX is at 443.23 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 1:25:55 PM

While the lunchtime lull goes on, the OEX produces 15-minute candles in a straight line just below the daily sma and other important resistance, but just above the 5/25 low. Should be time for a stop-running push soon, maybe within the next 40 minutes. (We can hope, can't we?)

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 1:26:25 PM

eCOST.com (ECST) $4.64 +19.89% Link ... breaks above its trending lower 50-day SMA ($4.53). IPO'd back in September at $6.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 1:21:33 PM

NVIDIA (NVDA) $27.88 -1.48% ... Fraser Mackenzie ups NVDA's price target to $32 from $18.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 1:14:06 PM

The Treasury's 17B 13-week bill auction generated a bid to cover ratio of 2.06 at a high rate of 2.965%, while the 15B 26-week bills fetched 2.5 bids for each accepted and a high rate of 3.06%. Foreign central banks took 9.4B of the total.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 1:09:39 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 1:02:06 PM

Volume breadth is still negative but off its lows, advancing volume leading 1.31 on the NYSE and 1.44:1 on the Nasdaq, with QQQQ having traded just 30.3M shares so far, less than a third of Friday's 97M shares.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 1:01:48 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 1:00:54 PM

On the RLX, no confirmation of the potential inverse H&S and no invalidation, either.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 12:55:14 PM

The BIX is balancing above the 358.98-360.30 support, with that support coming from multiple sources. The BIX is at 361.30 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 12:52:04 PM

QQQQ reached as high as 38.11 before dunking back below the 72 SMA with the wavelet cycle on the verge of completing its 10 minute downphase. So far, the combined 30 min/60 min/ short cycle upphases have been good for less than 15 cents' upside, and a failure of bulls to exploit this window would have very bearish implications- a weak upphase after Friday's big drop would set the stage for a doozy of a downphase to follow.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 12:48:55 PM

The OEX is producing 15-minute closes above rather than below the Kenter lines currenty from 563.97-564.47, but only modestly so. The climb still looks like a bear flag, but Keltner support is beginning to look stronger than resistance. Bears need to push the OEX to a new LOD.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 12:39:54 PM

The RLX has been testing the neckline of its potential inverse H&S, but hasn't been able to break above it. It's currently at about 443.50. Neither has the RLX fallen below the right-shoulder level, invalidating the formation.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 12:34:38 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $24.29 -4.81% .... Weaker after late Friday's filing of form 8-K at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 12:21:35 PM

The Treasury is auctioning 32B in 13-week and 26-week bills, the results of which are expected at 1PM. Currently, ten year notes are holding light losses, TNX +0.8 bps at 3.987%.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 12:17:57 PM

Currently, the 30 min cycle upphase is 2 hours old and has gone nowhere. The 60 min downphase appears to have ended at 11AM and the uptick since then has the 600 min stochastic turning up, following the short cycle oscillators. This is all opposed to the daily cycle oscillator which issued a long overdue sell signal Friday- but then, the entire rise for the past 3 weeks has been opposed to that cycle. The next 1-2 hours should be prime time for bulls if they can hold price above the 72 SMA at 38.08, being tested as resistance as I type. A failure here would be very bearish, confirmed by a break of the session low.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 12:16:19 PM

The OEX closed the last 15-minute period above the Keltner line then at 564.39, but only by two pennies. Bears would have preferred a lower close, however. Keep your profit-protecting plans in place as 15-minute Keltner resistance is thinning.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 12:11:21 PM

Just took a look at the RLX on a 15-minute chart to check on the progress of its potential inverse H&S. It's formed the right shoulder now and rises to test the neckline. It looks as if the neckline is at about 443.40, although still rising, and the BIX is currently at 442.91. Keltner lines are currently skewed, so give little direction. Support might be slightly stronger than resistance, but it's kinda up for grabs right now. Bulls don't want to see a decline to a new LOD as that would invalidate the formation. Bears don't want to see a break above the neckline.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 12:10:06 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 12:06:37 PM

NDX volatility (QQV) is up 5.05% or .71 to 14.77 despite the relatively minor 4 cent loss for QQQQ, currently surging above the previous high and retesting upper bear wedge resistance at 38.06: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 12:03:36 PM

PETsMart (PETM) $32.21 +2.28% ... session highs.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 12:03:31 PM

OEX bears want to see a 15-minute close below the Keltner linex currently at 564.19 and 564.37, with that top line currently being tested.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 12:02:37 PM

Introgen Therapeutics (INGN) $7.53 +5.17% ... gets some action.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 12:02:04 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 12:00:41 PM

A while ago, I wrote an article that promoted the use of semi-log charts for long-term study. Those semi-log charts often provide insight. For example, here's an arithmetic chart of the TRAN, showing that the TRAN dropped down to test a long-term ascending trendline this spring but has since risen back above it. There doesn't seem to be strong congruence with the TRAN's recent weekly candles on the pullback and that trendline: Link Now here's a semi-log chart showing the same trendline: Link On this chart, it's apparent that the TRAN broke cleanly below that trendline and has now risen to test it from the underside. Although the outcome isn't clear--note possible H&S--this chart looks far less bullish, doesn't it?

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 11:51:19 AM

RLX still positive, and it may be difficult for the OEX to move too low with the RLX higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 11:46:38 AM

Session low for Nymex July crude at 54.40, -.625.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 11:45:36 AM

OEX still testing the 564 area, currently just a couple of pennies above the 5/25 LOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 11:43:39 AM

Volume breadth remains negative on extremely weak volume overall, 1.61:1 for declining NYSE shares and 1.57:1 for declining Nasdaq shares, with just 23.92M QQQQs traded today. The current bounce has the short cycle indicators turning up out of oversold, so far taking the shape of a bear wedge. A move above 38.08 will be needed to invalidate that bearish view and confirm that the short cycle upphase will be for real: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 11:40:53 AM

RLX is still positive.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 11:35:58 AM

Mergers ... Pure World (PURW) $4.24 +108.86% saying it has agreed to be bought by Naturex for $4.30 per share in cash, or roughly $36.8 million.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 11:35:28 AM

So far, the OEX maintains 15-minute closes where it needs to do so in order to maintain that downside Keltner target, currently at 562.43. The current climb looks bear-flag-like, too, a plus for bears, but the OEX currently still tests 564. Bears need to keep ready to protect profits.

Tab Gilles : 6/6/2005 12:37:27 PM

Going over some charts early this morning in which I track alomng with their performances and outlooks. Semis SMH & $SOX (6/3/05; 12:08 AM post) Several days ago, I was speculating on a possible bearish divergence, looks like the RSI maybe indicating that, not so mush on the daily MACD. The SMH touched $35, Link Thought the INTC/AAPL news might give this sector a pop up today. The $SOX hit 440 I'd take some profits here and set stop at 20-ema. Link Link Now, looking at the SMH, given that it sees considerably more option activity than the $SOX. The May SMH call $35 = 57,576 Open Interest; May 30 put = 102,597. $35 resistance was tested Friday, it has beeen tested several now and history tells us that the more a level is tested, the more lokely that level will give way and become support. If and when it is broken could acelarate a rally, for those who are hedged. Link

Toward the end of April, one chart I track, the $NASI along with $NAHL turned bullish. Link I'd posted on 5/4 8:27AM the reversal took place and was looking at several other charts for confirmation in the following days. Went long on the Nasdaq and $NDX soon after that, setting target on $NDX at 1480. Link

Now I'm staying long until I see a reversal sell signal on this chart. Link Link

I trade the $NDX using the Profunds 200% leverage UOPIX & USPIX funds. Has been very profitable thus far. Link

For a conservative play the Eaton Vance Limited Duration Fund (EVV) has also proven profitable. A nice addition to a diversified portfolio. This chart has shown when to enter ands exit EVV. Link

Murphy Oil Yes this oil stock has been a great trading stock over the last few years. Using the 100 and 150 - emas to enter and 10-ema to sell. NOTE*** Murphy just split 2 for 1 so my past price targets will have to be adjusted. Link Link Link

Currently looking at gold and NEM. Will the recent dollars run up end and the longer term decline resume? Have to see on this one, but NEM has rallied off of the $35/$36 support level. Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 11:30:22 AM

OEX bears want to see the OEX remain below Keltner lines currently at 565.32-564.52 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 11:30:09 AM

10 Most Actives ... QQQQ $38.00 -0.23%, INTC $27.01 -1.17%, SUNW $3.57 -2.45%, ATYT $14.05 -7.92%, CSCO $19.15 -1.28%, SPY $119.72 -0.35%, MSFT $25.38 -0.19%, PVN $17.67 -1.61%, EBAY $38.41 +1.61%, LJPC $1.04 +25.3%

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 11:28:59 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 11:27:24 AM

Mergers ... earlier this morning Washington Mutual (WM) $40.53 -2.50% said it would buy credit-card issuer Providian Financial (PVN) $17.67 -1.61% for roughly $6.45 billion in cash and stock deal that valued PVN at $18.71 per share based on Friday's close. WM said the stock portion of the deal will depend on its average closing price 10-days before the transaction is close. Under the agreement, PVN shareholders will receive stock and cash based on an exchange ration of 0.45 WM shares for each PVN share, with 89% of the price pain in WM stock and 11% cash.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 11:24:23 AM

BIX approaching the converging 30- and 100-sma's at 360.02 and 360.30, respectively, as well as the expected round-number support at 360. The 200-ema, sometimes important in the BIX's performance is at 358.97. Lots of reasons for the BIX to attempt a bounce through here. If it doesn't, next watch the 356 level, a potential right-shoulder level for an inverse H&S on the BIX's daily chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 11:23:34 AM

Nymex crude has bounced from a low of 54.40 to its current 30 cent loss at 54.725.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 11:18:15 AM

RUT challenging the top of the QCharts-drawn descending regression channel that it broke over last week. The 100-sma, important in the RUT's trading pattern over the ast few months, it at 614.22, with the RUT currently at 614.22. RUT bulls want to see that average hold if tested. RUT bears want the opposite, although more support could be expected at the 200-sma at 606.11.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 11:11:14 AM

Bears want to see the OEX remain below 564.42-564.77 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 11:10:53 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 11:09:28 AM

SOX below 430. RLX still holds onto its gains, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 11:08:53 AM

QQQQ is bouncing from a low of 37.96, the wavelet oscillator trying to turn up again as the short cycle indicators work their way low. A break above the previous support at 38.04 will target short cycle channel resistance at 38.08. 72 SMA resistance has declined to 38.12: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 11:02:47 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 11:02:23 AM

Downside target of 562.49 now reset on the OEX. Bears should have profit-protecting plans for that level, although some charts suggest that 559.50-561 are possible.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 10:59:58 AM

July Crude Oil (cl05n) $54.80 -0.41% (30-min. delayed) ... has reversed early morning gains with floor trade high of $55.40. WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $49.15, $52.05, Piv= $53.75, $56.65, $58.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 10:56:55 AM

QQQQ is breaking Friday's lows here, currently printing a low of 38.01. Volume remains light, however.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 10:55:05 AM

The OEX heads now to test the 5/25 low of 564.07.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 10:50:50 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 10:49:15 AM

New LOD on the OEX. Needs to drop below 564 and stay there before bears feel much comfort.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 10:48:49 AM

Although the setup of the 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators suggests a corrective bounce due after Friday's big decline, every uptick in the QQQQ continue to gets sold. Volume remains extremely low, just 15.9M QQQQs traded so far, while volume breadth has weakened to 1.4:1 in favor NYSE decliners, 1.28:1 on the Nasdaq. Direction and confidence are low, but the pattern of lower intraday highs and volume breadth are both bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 10:42:45 AM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) with updated WEEKLY/Pivot Matrix Levels at this Link ... SPX with conventional retracement (Wednesday's Market Wrap) at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 10:41:46 AM

Will it or won't it? The OEX sits right on the daily 100-sma and just pennies below the 50% retracement of the March-April slide and just above the bottom of its recent consolidation pattern.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 10:38:31 AM

Ten year yields (TNX) have flipped positive here, +.4 bps at 3.983%.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 10:37:04 AM

Session low for July crude here at 54.625, -.40.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 10:34:38 AM

The SOX bounced from 430 but found resistance at a Keltner line currently at 432.56. Bears want to see it continue to find resistance at that Keltner line and to break to a new LOD. If it should, next Keltner target is at 425.54, but it may be trying to form a flag and continue to climb.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 10:34:03 AM

QQQQ is holding above Friday's lows so far, with a bullish divergence in the wavelet oscillator (second pane from the bottom): Link . Bears need to see a break of 38.00 to start that indicator trending, while bulls want a move above the 72 SMA to restore a bullish bias to the 30 min cycle on a break above 38.14.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 10:28:24 AM

The BIX maintains a Keltner downside target of 360.13, in line with other types of support that extend down toward 359. Market bulls and bears might watch the BIX test of 360, if it should occur to see whether the expected bounce appears and what shape it takes (impulsive, flag-ish, etc.).

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 10:25:42 AM

Session low for ten year notes (basis ZN June contract) at 112 63/64, while TNX holds a 1.7 bp loss.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 10:24:33 AM

If you carried over an OEX bearish play over the weekend and have big profits (or any) and are particulary conservative, you might consider partial profits here. I suggested the same thing in this area Friday, though, so hopefully those who wanted to take partial profits in this area have done so already. The OEX could break lower or could move higher. No resolution yet.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 10:20:27 AM

The OEX drops toward the 5/25 and 6/01 low. Bears would like first to see 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner lines currently at 564.49-564.76 and then a drop below 564. That would set up the downside target of 562.64 again.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 10:19:54 AM

Session low for July crude oil at 54.975 here, -.05.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 10:16:27 AM

Volume is very light so far, 10.9M QQQQs traded so far and 496M on the combined NYSE and Nasdaq. Breadth is still mixed as well.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 10:13:22 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link ... Friday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 10:12:59 AM

5-day 5 min chart of the SOX, bouncing from daily S2 here as the short cycle indicators uptick in oversold territory: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 10:12:25 AM

The BIX heads lower, and the RLX heads higher, and, probably as a result of that bifurcation at least in part, the OEX sort of hang around at the appropriate right-shoulder level for its inverse H&S.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 10:10:33 AM

Crude oil has reopened, July crude +.10 at 55.125 off a session high of 55.55 overnight. The session low was 55.05.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 10:09:01 AM

OEX still hanging around at the appropriate right-shoulder level for its possible inverse H&S, with the formation neither negated nor confirmed.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 10:08:41 AM

Direction is up for grabs here, with volume breadth lightly negative on the NYSE and neutral on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 10:06:55 AM

RLX still slightly higher this morning. There's a potential inverse H&S on the 15-minute chart, still lacking a right shoulder. The RLX is testing the appropriate neckline level now, at about 422.20 with the RLX at 442.03 as Itype. Although on the 15-minute Keltner chart, support at about 440.54-441 looks stronger than nearby resistance, now being tested and don't necessarily suggest a pullback into a right shoulder, this would be an appropriate time for that to happen . . . moving higher as I type, at 442.35 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 10:04:12 AM

Taser Intl. (TASR) $11.49 +3.51% ... gets some action.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 10:03:17 AM

Nake call fill alert ... on three (3) of the SPX June 1220 Calls (SZP-FD) at $1.30. SPX.X 1,196.32 +0.04% ...

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 10:03:05 AM

BIX breaking below the two-week lows of its consolidation pattern, but bouncing slightly to challenge it again. More support from 358.98-360.30 (daily averages, historical S/R, a Fib level and supposed round-number support).

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 10:01:55 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 10:01:50 AM

SOX 430 providing at least temporary support.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 10:01:07 AM

Friday's 2.5B weekend repo has been replaced with a big 9B overnight repo for a net add of 6.5B today.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 9:59:58 AM

The OEX is still holding above the 50% retracement of the March-April slide, the 100-sma and the bottom of its recent consolidation pattern. Need to see a drop below the 6/01 low of 564.15 and the 5/25 low of 564.07 before it totally negates that inverse H&S and bears can feel any confidence that it will continue lower toward the 562.68 downside Keltner target.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 9:59:11 AM

The USD Index is lower Link as gold and silver futures hold their morning gains, Aug. gold currently up 2.60 at 428.40 off a high of 429, working on last resistance before the 432-433 line, while silver holds a .054 gain at 7.571. Currently, HUI is up 1.28% or 2.44 at 192.91, XAU +.99% at 89.02.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 9:56:02 AM

VIX.X 12.71 +4.6% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.11, 11.68, Piv= 12.08, 12.65, 13.05.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 9:55:12 AM

The RLX is still slightly positive, hanging just above 440 this morning. The RLX's candle Friday was a bearish engulfing candle at the top of a climb, and so this should suggest some follow-through this morning. None yet, though. The RLX is within that huge gap from January, and it could be finding some gap support above the bottom of that gap, at least temporarily. If bears don't get some downside going, I could see a possibility that the RLX could chop around inside that gap for a while.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 9:51:41 AM

Treasuries are holding their light opening gains, TNX currently down 1.4 bps at 3.965%. Updated daily chart of the TNX at this Link with the ten year note yield holding near the top of Friday's big doji hammer.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 9:51:34 AM

RUT finally dropping from the open.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 9:51:18 AM

Swing trade sell naked call alert ... sell three (3) of the S&P 500 SPX Jun 1225 Calls (SZP-FD) for $1.30. Current bid/offer $1.20 x $1.50. SPX.X 1,195.50 -0.04% ....

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 9:48:41 AM

QQQQ 2-day chart updated at this Link with price testing 30 min channel support. That support will decline so long as price holds below the 38.15 72 SMA line.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 9:46:13 AM

The OEX's Keltner picture isn't clear. Support at 564.62-565.91 looks as strong as nearby resistance, at 565.51, but that resistance is so far holding. The inverse H&S remains a possibility.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 9:45:19 AM

Session lows across the board, with Nasdaq volume breadth just going negative.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 9:43:27 AM

QQQQ is back to the session low, with 30 min channel support down to 38.09. The SOX is diving, but volume breadth on the Nasdaq remains positive, 1.13:1 for advancing shares here.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 9:42:59 AM

The BIX is challenging the bottom of its recent consolidation zone, at 361.57 with the BIX currnetly at 361.72. There's support that looks significant, however, from 358.98-560.30.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 9:41:57 AM

SOX still diving, at 430.87 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 9:38:07 AM

So far, the RUT does not follow through on Friday's losses, something that market bears would have wanted to see it do. It's far from retracing half of Friday's losses, though, so remains within the bearish half of Friday's bearish range.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 9:36:24 AM

Volume breadth is positive at the open, 1.36:1 for advancing shares on the NYSE, 1.13:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ is bouncing from a low of 38.12, above Friday's low and within the window for a 30 min upphase. If the bulls can do it, I expect it to be corrective against the sell signals in the broader daily cycle.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 9:33:51 AM

Forgot to mention that when the SOX dropped, it dropped below the low of Friday's inside day candle.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 9:32:41 AM

SOX drops this morning, but remains above 430.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 9:31:20 AM

The OEX gaps lower, but only to the right-shoulder level for the possible inverse H&S. Bears don't want to see a quick and hard bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 9:30:38 AM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $6.00 ... #3 most active at $5.99 after company said it has extended its exclusive contract with Ford Motor (F) that extends SIRI's exclusive relationship until September 2011.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 9:27:14 AM

Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) $33.14 Link ... #2 most active and lower at $31.47 after an Illinois U.S. District judge granted a preliminary injuction sought by Abbott Laboratories (ABT) $48.27 delaying Teva from selling a generic form of an extended formulation of the atibiotic Biaxin. JP Morgan analyst Corey Davis saying the decision "sets a bad precedent for generics," citing just two other times when a judge granted a brand name company's preliminary injunction in recent years. Sales of Abbott's Biaxin, used to treat respiratory and skin infections, were $1.2 billion in 2004. A trial is scheduled to begin in 2006.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 9:21:30 AM

ATI Technologies (ATYT) 15.26 Link ... #1 most active and lower at $14.33 after 3D graphic solutions maker lowered guidance for its upcoming Q3 and Q4, citing a shift in sales toward the low end of its graphics accelerator offerings.

Jeff Bailey : 6/6/2005 9:13:22 AM

Program Trading Levels for Monday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $1.60 and set for program selling at $-0.80.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 8:59:50 AM

Here's how some of the major indices ended the week last week: The OEX ended the week within the broadening formation it's been building. The BIX ended the week below the daily 200-sma but still within its consolidation pattern that's been building for more than two weeks. No breakout either direction. The SOX had an inside day, though, so those who believe in inside-day trades will be watching for a low lower or a high higher than Friday's. Since May 11, the SOX has been bouncing from its 15-minute 100/130-ema's, and it ended Friday sitting on those averages, ready to bounce once again or fall through them. They're at 434.12 and 433.20, respectively. The RLX, however, had a great big bearish engulfing day, and the components the OEX shares with the RLX make this index important to the OEX's behavior.

The RUT's daily candle was as bearish, completing a lopsided sort of evening-star reversal signal, but the RUT ended above 620, so the evidence may be a bit more mixed than it looks on first glance. The TRAN continues to consolidate inside a broadening formation, having a down day Friday, but closing nearer the top of that broadening formation than the bottom. The SPX's non-classic evening-star pattern was more convincing than the OEX's because it wasn't produced within such a confirmed consolidation pattern.

Lots to consider, and some evidence is mixed or inconclusive. As far as the OEX, I don't think we can draw a conclusion because it remains mired so firmly in its consolidation pattern. I've been calling myself a chopper rather than a bear or a bull, because of presence of so many consolidation patterns. On other indices, I'd say the evidence was weighted slightly toward the bearish side, but I think bears have to get the job done and quickly, or bulls are going to push the indices higher while shorts get scared. There's a very real possibility that the OEX's consolidation pattern is part of a "p" accumulation pattern, although it currently looks more like a (usually bearish) broadening formation. If OEX bears don't manage to push prices down through the 564.70-564.80 support that I've been mentioning so much, then bulls are likely to push it high enough to close it above 570, and such a close would begin to look like a change in tenor.

Until now, as I've mentioned several times over the last week, selling 570-ish resistance and buying 566-ish support has been a good trade as long as profits were automatically taken at the opposite side of the consolidation pattern. I'm not sure that's still true. Watch the RLX ( bears want it to continue lower below the bearish engulfing candle), the SOX (bears want it to break below the 15-minute 100/130-ema's and stay there, and the BIX (bears want it to break out of its consolidation pattern in conjunction with or ahead of a similar break on the OEX). Watch the RUT to see if that rough evening-star pattern results in declines and the SPX for the same.

The late-day push Friday skewed the OEX's 15-minute Keltner channels, and there's a hint of a possible inverse H&S trying to form near the double-bottom level, with the formation still lacking a right shoulder. A fall to a new low, confirmed by a fall below the 6/01 low of 564.16 will negate that formation, while a climb much above 566.30 after the shoulder forms would tend to confirm it. There's some iffy-ness about charts this morning, then, and bears would have been a lot more comfortable with a close below that 6/01 low. If markets do open lower and bears can hold the indices lower, then I wouldn't be surprised to see further declines this morning, toward a Keltner line currently at 562.73, but if that's hit, bears need to have a plan in place for how to handle a potential bounce from that level. The Keltner daily chart suggests a lower test, to 560-561.80. If the OEX instead sees only a modest decline and then at the first retracement of the morning bounces above 566.50, there might be a push higher but bulls need to have profit-protecting plans in place for 570, if that's hit.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 8:59:43 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury prices fell, pushing up yields, early Monday, ahead of a scheduled appearance by Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan at a monetary conference in Beijing. There are no scheduled economic reports Monday.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 8:42:41 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle indicators turned up at the close on Friday, and that upphase should remain so long as the 38 support level holds this morning. The 60 min indicators are pointing south, however, not yet oversold, and the daily cycle, pinned for over 2 weeks to the ceiling in overbought territory, actually flashed a sell signal on Friday. To reverse it, bulls will need to return to Friday's highs in the mid 38.70s. Currently, the declining 72 SMA is at 38.15, above which the 30 min cycle upphase will persist and below which it will stall/reverse. Upper 30 min channel resistance is at 38.22, 60 min resistance at 38.30 where it lines up with the daily pivot. Support is at 38.02-38.08.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/6/2005 7:44:01 AM

Equities are mixed, ES trading 1198, NQ 1549.5, YM 10475 and QQQQ +.07 at 38.17. Gold is up 2.2 to 428, silver -.026 to 7.491, ten year notes +5/32 to 113 9/64 and crude oil is up .175 to 55.20.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today.

Linda Piazza : 6/6/2005 7:03:01 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei posted a loss Monday, although it moderated the early-morning loss. Other Asian markets posted gains, with China's seeing a sharp reversal after piercing 1,000 in the morning. European markets are mixed. Our futures trade just below the flat-line level. As of 6:55 EST, gold was up $1.10, and crude, up $0.22 to $55.25. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei spent Monday morning coiling below the flat-line level, then broke higher in the afternoon, but never could reach positive levels. It closed lower by 29.43 points or 0.26%, at 11,270.62. The first-quarter's all-industries capital expenditures figure rose 7.4% year over year, leading to speculation that the government will revise higher the preliminary GDP estimate. However, one article speculated that the Q1 revised GDP capital expenditures figure was already high enough that the all-industries number wouldn't result in much of a revision. Semi-related stocks declined, seeing some profit-taking after gains in recent days. Tuesday sees the release of April's all households real spending number, with the growth rate projected to decrease 2.0% year over year and be flat over March's number, and there may have been some fear about that number. Markets also reacted to crude's push above $55.00/barrel on Friday, and disappointment in the U.S.'s jobs data.

Other Asian markets posted gains. Although semi-related stocks struggled in Japan, many Asian semi-related stocks performed well. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.48%. South Korea's Kospi was closed. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.40%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.30%. China's Shanghai Composite ran up 2.05% after dropping more than 1% early in the session. Some speculated that the rebound was technical after the Shanghai Composite pierced 1,000, and others credit a newspaper article in which the government was deemed to encourage fund management companies to buy.

European markets are mixed. ECB representatives have spoken out today and this weekend, with the chief economist saying that he does not rule out further rate cuts, a change in direction from former ECB statements. France and Germany held crisis talks this weekend ahead of an anticipated move today by the U.K.'s Prime Minister Blair to put the U.K.'s referendum on hold. In the U.K., a survey showed a drop in manufacturers' confidence, with this coming just ahead of this week's Bank of England meeting.

In company-specific news, the French government has announced that it will lessen its stake in France Telecom, with that company's stock currently suspended from trading. It's an M&A Monday for Dutch insurer Aegon, announcing its agreement to acquire Nationwide Poland, and Wal-Mart Stores' Asda unit, planning to buy some of William Morrison's stores and development areas, and Premier Foods, speculated to be interested in buying Group Danone.

As of 6:55 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 5.70 points or 0.11%, at 5005.10. The CAC 40 was lower by 1.15 points or 0.03%, at 4,161.32. The DAX was higher by 4.50 points or 0.10%, to 4,514.89.

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