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Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2005 2:50:07 AM

Continuous Oil ($WTIC) ... conventional $0.25 box scale would show a double bottom sell signal today. Link $0.50 box scale at this Link ... $1.00 box scale at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2005 1:08:01 AM

QQQQ updated/corrected 30-min. interval chart with WEEKLY Pivot Levels/retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2005 1:12:50 AM

WEEKLY Pivot Matrix correction alert for NDX/QQQQ Weekly Pivot Levels !!!!. Correction to last WEEK's lows!!!! Updated Pivot Matrix at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2005 12:41:57 AM

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05m) up 4.50 at 1,538.50.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2005 12:40:08 AM

e-mini S&P (es05m) up 2.00 at 1,200.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2005 12:39:22 AM

July Crude (cl05n) down $0.02 at $53.74

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2005 12:38:26 AM

Hmmm... now looking at tomorrow's DAILY Pivot Levels. IF QQQQ finds little bid early, look to SHORT below Pivot, targets of $37.53 (see 12:22:14) with a Swing trade MAXIMUM decline of DAILY S2 (see 12:22:14, which may come to fruition on Friday afternoon?)

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2005 12:35:20 AM

QQQQ Options sorted by Monday's June, then July OI at this Link ... IF OI were equal at $37 (and its not so we might weight this a bit), then $0.95-$0.15 = $0.80. $37 + 0.80 = $37.80. Also ... $0.95 + $0.15 = $1.10. Split the difference for EQUAL OI weighting and I get $0.55. $37.55 might be a QQQQ low for OI Market Maker to turn into a buyer. If I were to "eyeball" a weighting with consideration of $38 and $37 strikes, then $37.25 might be an inflextion low. Get the "spike" in VIX.X/VXN.X for the setup.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2005 12:09:08 AM

QQQQ Most Active Option for Tuesday at this Link ... PINK is "Max Pain" strike. $38 Calls currently out-the-money, $38 Puts just in. If Market Maker from here, don't want QQQQ much below $37, or those puts profitable.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 11:52:48 PM

Couch Potato ... do they still have the "sell QQQQ $37 Calls" trade open? Think about that type of position in the context of an options market maker. How can some "Max Pain" be inflicted on LONGS in that position. How does one get "shook out" of that position? Same, but opposite as a June SPX 1,220 naked call seller from Monday is my guess. Now think about possible VIX.X or VXN.X action on Friday. What might we look for there?

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 11:43:53 PM

VIX.X 60-minute interval chart at this Link ... using the WEEKLY Pivot observations, might come in handy.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 10:35:11 PM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.73 and set for program selling at $-0.57.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 10:23:32 PM

The "killer trade" I (Jeff Bailey) would look for is something from the long side Friday afternoon, perhaps under $119.00, but better yet around $118.30, with some bullish sign into expiration week with a Friday (06/10/05) close above MONTHLY Pivot. Then finish the expiration week out at MONTHLY R1, or just above (Jim's Market Wrap tonight? Futures Monitor 06/07/05 04:52:50).

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 10:03:13 PM

SPY ... $119, $119, $119 ... $119 was April's "Max Pain Theory", $118.84 was May's MONTHLY R1 and in early April, I thought Pivot history should have MONTHLY R1 serving resistance. See what happened once it was traded? $119 is currently June's "Max Pain Theory." Here's a rather wide 60-minute interval chart of the SPY Link . LIGHT BLUE is last three months' "Max Pain Theory" levels (increments $1). PINK are MONTHLY Pivot Levels, and I think after the "shouldn't have," then computers should be turned on at that level. I've also place a "conventional" retracement on the SPY using the April low and today's new relative highs.

OI Technical Staff : 6/7/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 9:44:22 PM

Futures monitor .... 06/07/05 04:52:50 Jim Brown ... Is he trying to "sucker me" into buying SPX puts? (read on...)

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 9:39:05 PM

April 11 07:52:58 ... Gave April Max Pain Theory levels for that month. Check them out.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 9:21:26 PM

March 18 02:25:01 ... made note that 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) June "Max Pain Theory" was tabulated at 4.25% (42.50).

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 9:20:00 PM

March 18 02:32:54 ... made note that the 5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) June "Max Pain Theory" was tabulated at 3.75% (37.50). I'm currently trying to find notes on what the SPY "Max Pain Theory" value was for April.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 8:08:07 PM

Jim ... any targets on those SPX puts? I'm working on something with the SPY into Friday's trade, then into next week's expiration. Want to see if we're on the same page.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 6:55:12 PM

June Max Pain Theory Levels (Update) ... DIA = $104.00 ($1 increments) DJX = $104.00 ($1 increments) SPX.X = 1,175 (5-point increments) SPY = $119 ($1 increments) OEX.X = 565 (5-point increments) QQQQ = $37 ( $36.63 increment below, $37.63 increment above) SOX.X = 415 (2.5-point increments) SMH = $35 ($2.5-point increments) TNX.X = 42.50 (2.5-point increments)

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 6:34:41 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 5:31:58 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 5:11:27 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 4:57:39 PM

Thanks for the trade ideas Jim (03:50:32), but my plate is pretty full right now. I'll put you down for 10 each though.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 5:14:47 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Stopped out of the three (3) naked SPX Jun. 1,220 Calls (SZP-FD) at $2.80. (not saying today was "the near-term top," but I'm not believing that there isn't some action in a "range-bound" market." Lesson/observation is that 100% stops are a minimum, and that doesn't equate to very good risk/reward if selling puts/calls, even with just 8 days to expiration). ($-1.50, or -115.38%) Closed out the three (3) naked DIA Jun $100 Puts (DIA-RV) at the offer of $0.05. ($+0.70, or +93.33%). Swing trade bullish call one (1) PETsMart PETM Jan $30 Call (QPT-AF) at the offer of $5.10. Targeting $47 minimum. Swing traded long 1/2 bullish in the QQQQ at $37.91, but was stopped at $37.75 ($-0.16, or -0.42%)

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 4:10:22 PM

Thanks so much for repairing that link, Jim.

Jim Brown : 6/7/2005 4:05:06 PM

I fixed Linda's link in her 4:04 post.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 4:04:19 PM

I posted this chart earlier this morning to show the danger to bulls as the OEX tested the top of the broadening formation and the 61.8% Fib level marked here. Here's what's happened next, but so far, the OEX is still within that broadening formation, unless it really drops into the close. Don't think I'd buy the bottom of the formation now, but then, I wouldn't have today, either, and since I would have automatically taken profit at 570, I would have missed a good play. I really wouldn't suggest it this afternoon, though. Link

Jim Brown : 6/7/2005 3:50:32 PM

Jeff, the 1190 puts are only 4.70 (SPT-RR), 5.70 for the 1195. (SPT-RS)

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 3:50:23 PM

TRIN 1.00

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 3:47:08 PM

SPX 1,198.36 +0.07% ... finds the Jun 1,220 Calls (SZP-FD) bidding $1.40.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 3:46:50 PM

OEX now testing that rising trendline off yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 3:45:44 PM

Let's see if I can't get stopped in two trades at near highs and lows of day.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 3:44:17 PM

Bullish swing trade stop alert on the 1/2 bullish position in the QQQQ $37.75

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 3:43:24 PM

Currently, QQQQ is in a synchronous daily cycle, 60 and 30 min cycle downphase, with the short cycle indicators trending in oversold. This is prime time for the bears, and for a change they're actually exploiting the opportunity. Surprisingly, QQQQ volatility has risen a mere .26 on the QQV to 14.53, a 1.82% change, despite the sharp drop from today's earlier highs. Nevertheless, on the daily cycle, the Macd confirmation of the stochastic downphase noted in last night's Market Wrap has printed on today's lower low.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 3:38:32 PM

Strange market behavior. The OEX broke through the "b" distribution pattern, but bounces much more quickly than bulls would like. It's bouncing from the trendline off yesterday morning's low. Don't think I'd be buying that trendline, but someone is. Keltner and historical resistance at 567.58 and then at 568.12-568.32.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 3:34:11 PM

Session high for July crude at 53.825, +.075.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 3:33:04 PM

QQQQ to a nominally lower low here, with 30 min channel support down to 37.68: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 3:31:38 PM

The bulb of the "b" shape usually forms about halfway through a decline.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 3:31:14 PM

Not a good program with 30-minute left in trade.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 3:31:12 PM

The OEX's "b" distribution pattern has broken to the downside.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 3:30:45 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,200.04, DIA $105.05, QQQQ $37.83

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 3:23:19 PM

The RLX also remains within its potential "b" distribution pattern.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 3:21:25 PM

The dogs were put back in their kennels ... PETsMart (PETM) $32.43 -0.18% ...

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 3:19:38 PM

The OEX is still within the potential "b" distribution pattern, holding above 567.45-567.60 Keltner support on 15-minute closes, below 568.70 Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 3:19:06 PM

SPX 1,201.50 +0.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 3:18:39 PM

July Crude Oil (cl05n) settled down $0.73, or -1.34% at $53.76 in Tuesday's trade. This is right on its WEEKLY Pivot of $53.75. QQQQ $37.90 -0.55%.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 3:18:13 PM

July crude oil reopens, down .025 at 53.725. QQQQ is chopping sideways below yesterday's low but above the session low. A higher low here will give short cycle bulls confirmation for an attempt to regain the 37.95 level- a close above that will avoid a higher high-lower low key reversal day.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 3:14:14 PM

Several indices, including the OEX and RLX (notice the similarities in their 15-minute chart patterns?) form potential "b" distribution formations. No break either to the upside or downside yet.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 3:12:03 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 3:09:01 PM

The OEX is at mid-channel Keltner support, with Keltner resistance at 568.93 and then at 570.24-570.30.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 3:05:11 PM

Is this a "b" distribution pattern on the OEX's q5-minute chart?

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 3:04:23 PM

Volume breadth is bifurcated across the two major markets, advancing volume leading declining 2.07:1 on the NYSE while declining leads 1.16:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 3:02:05 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 3:02:05 PM

Ten year treasury yields finished lower by 5.1 bps at 3.911%. Daily chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 3:03:21 PM

Consumer credit 1.3B vs. 7.5B expected. The prior 5.5B reading was revised up to 6.9B.




Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 2:59:49 PM

The OEX's climb does look bear flag-ish. Keltner resistance at 569.17 and then again near 570.40.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 2:58:13 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... still have not received the MM survey results from management, but I'm guessing that traders aren't interested in "longer-term" option trades.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 2:55:51 PM

The RLX stopped its decline exactly at the 50% retracement of the climb off the 6/03 low, which is what you'd want a bull flag to do, but that shape was not bull flag-ish in shape. Neither is the current sharp rise particularly bear flag-ish, but as long as the RLX finds resistance at a Keltner line currently at 446.39 on 15-minute closes, it might remain vulnerable to a decline to 443 or so.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 2:51:40 PM

The OEX's climb is taking on a bear flag look. First Keltner resistance at 569.14 and then stronger at 570.30. Remember the likely?/possible? support near 566 and then again near 554-565, really all through that two-point zone. Remember that the OEX is in the middle of a broadening formation and anything can happen.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 2:49:56 PM

July crude oil closed lower by 70 cents at 53.80, off a low of 53.55, high of 54.775.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 2:42:59 PM

RUT heading up toward that very strong appearing 627.84-629.06 Keltner resistance. We'll see if it holds. This is on the 15-minute chart. On the daily, it's at 627.96-630.91 and the RUT hit that almost to the penny at the HOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 2:42:07 PM

QQQQ has a short cycle upphase trying to set up, and a break above the declining 72 SMA should be enough to kick it off. However, yesterday's range is providing confluence resistance, and the longer intraday cycles are lined up with the daily to the downside. Any short cycle upphase from here should be corrective only. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 2:41:41 PM

This OEX action is exactly why I wouldn't make any prognostications a few minutes ago about what would happen next, because we're into the part of a broadening formation when it's just useless to do so. They're symptomatic of emotion-based trading and that's never particularly amenable to technical analysis, so start being particularly careful with plays once you see that a broadening formation has set up. Be quick to take profit.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 2:33:53 PM

RUT Keltner picture: Keltner support just below and the RUT is trying to hold to a 38.2% retracement of the climb off yesterday's early morning low. It's just a little below that now, but the RUT might find enough support here to attempt a bounce. First resistance at 626.80 or so, but there's firm resistance from 627.72-628.67 that looks firm enough to stop the RUT if it bounces. If the RUT doesn't steady here, it's vulnerable to a drop to 622.93-623.63.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 2:33:38 PM

Wider QQQQ 30-minute interval chart with Keltner and QCharts' weekly Pivot levels turned on at this Link ... noting some similarity between 05/11/05 and today.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 2:30:38 PM

The OEX is now testing mid-channel Keltner support on the 15-minute channel, with this also being historical S/R. Can't tell from the Keltner picture right now whether a bounce up to 569.60 or a drop down to 566.09 is likely to be the next move. Maybe that means that there will be some consolidation between 567.50-568.20 or so before a decision is made.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 2:29:13 PM

Let's see if these keltners trade as they did on 05/11/05.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 2:27:15 PM

QQQQ updated 30-minute interval chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 2:27:00 PM

QQQQ's downside h&s implied target on the 30 min chart is in the 37.20 area, assuming a neckline of 37.95. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 2:26:12 PM

The SPX has daily Keltner support at a Keltner line currently at 1196.51. This is on daily closes, of course. Resistance is at 1209.22 and then again at 1214.32.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 2:25:18 PM

Wow. The SPX has slightly exceeded the downside target of its H&S on the five-minute chart, hasn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 2:18:26 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,201.61, DIA $105.10, QQQQ $37.83

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 2:16:25 PM

SOX negative now. And look at the OEX. It again punched through the best-fit rising trendline of its broadening formation and then turned around. After 570, any bullish OEX play has been living on borrowed time lately, but there's 567 potential support yet to be tested. The reason why these broadening formations are so difficult to trade is that trading behavior gets weirder and weirder as they broaden. I'm not about to make a prognostication about what's going to happen within that zone, but will say only that bulls can't like what's happening.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 2:15:58 PM

Bullish swing trade 1/2 long alert ... for the QQQQ $37.91 here, stop $37.75, target $39.00

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 2:15:37 PM

July crude -.575 here at 53.925, current low 53.55.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 2:13:48 PM

QQQQ intraday update, losing daily S2 here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 2:12:30 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,202.56, DIA $105.11, QQQQ $37.88

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 2:11:57 PM

Below 37.95 QQQQ, bears will have a key reversal on the higher high followed by a lower low. Volume breadth has just ticked negative for QQQQ, 1.06:1 in favor of declining shares.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 2:11:02 PM

Uh--erase that about the SOX trying to bounce again. Steepened dive.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 2:10:33 PM

Look at the SOX. It's erased almost all of today's gains, but is trying to bounce again.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 2:09:18 PM

If the RUT is going to bounce again, this 628-ish level might be one place from which a bounce might get started. It's Keltner support at the breakout level. The 625.8-626.25-ish level is another one to watch for a potential bounce, but short-term bulls can't be liking the shape of this pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 2:08:56 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 2:05:31 PM

QQQQ update at this Link , losing daily S1 below the 30 and 60 min channel bottoms, with S2 below at 37.92. The short cycle indicators are reaching oversold here, and the channel breaks should normally be followed by a corrective bounce. 38.10-.12 is immediate resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 2:00:58 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 2:00:11 PM

BIX still breaking lower, with Keltner support near the mid-channel level not holding up, at least not currently.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 1:58:22 PM

RUT approaching potential strong Keltner support near 628. The RUT is going to have to lead the way into a bounce, though, because the MID has already broken through that same Keltner configuration.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 1:57:07 PM

Bullish swing trade setup alert cancel alert ... for the QQQQ $38.14 +0.07% entry of $38.42.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 1:55:56 PM

The MID drops heavily, currently below the 681.55 level that bulls would like to see hold on 15-minute closes. The mid-caps had been pulling back in what looked like a bull flag, but broke support heavily, as some other indices are doing. Careful out there if you're in bullish positions.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 1:53:18 PM

The RUT's pullback still looks a bit bull flag-ish, but it's beginning to drop a bit too steeply for those who want to interpret the pullback that way. Keltner support coming up near 627.80, and bulls want to see that hold on 15-minute closes, and then want to see a bounce.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 1:52:56 PM

Ten year treasuries are pulling back along with equities, TNX up to a 3.5 bp loss at 3.927%. QQQQ has just tested lower 60 min channel support at daily S1, still printing below the steeply declining 30 min channel bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 1:51:40 PM

Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 537.20 -0.08% ... inches red.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 1:51:42 PM

The BIX is all the way back below its 200-sma after breaking above it today, but it's also at potential Keltner support near 363.50. The Keltner picture doesn't give an impression of great strength on this index, though. While other pullbacks might still be bull flag pullbacks, this one doesn't look that way and neither does the TRAN's.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 1:49:15 PM

Steep fall in the TRAN during the just-completed 15-minute period. It broke through the support of what could have been a "p" accumulation formation, but apparently wasn't. It's just above presumed support near 3650, but now 3660-3667 might be presumed to be resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 1:47:12 PM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $77.42 -2.29% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 1:46:49 PM

Apple (AAPL) $36.93 -2.61% ...

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 1:46:29 PM

Forgot to mention that the RLX's decline still takes the shape of a possible bull flag, even though it's looking weaker than bulls might like (erasing its breakout) on the 15-minute Keltner channel.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 1:46:11 PM

I've been seeing a lot of "free iPod" and "free BlackBerry" offers of late. How about you?

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 1:45:56 PM

Volume breadth currently favors advancing volume 3.34:1 on the NYSE and 2.25:1 on the Nasdaq, lower than earlier today but still strong.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 1:45:43 PM

RLX not looking so great as the end of the current 15-minute period approaches. Bulls would have liked to have seen a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 447.93 and that doesn't look as if it's going to happen. There's support from the 6/02 swing high at 446.95 and Fib support (38.2% retracement of the climb off the 6/03 low) at about 445.70, but Keltner support is thinning. First Keltner support at 447.38 and then near that Fib level, at 445.69.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 1:44:58 PM

QQQQ $38.21 +0.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 1:44:41 PM

SPX 1,206.54 +0.75% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 1:44:22 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,653 +0.49% ... pull into 3,650.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 1:40:17 PM

Introgen Therapeutics (INGN) $7.29 +1.25% ... was keeping and eye on the June options. See some first action of the day with 48 Sep. $10 Cals at the offer of $0.45. Not a lot, but if I were to see a lot of action with call buying or put selling, be alert.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 1:37:12 PM

RLX breaking lower. Still could be within a bull flag formation, but bulls sure want it to snap back above a Keltner line currently at 447.93 before this 15-minute close--something it's trying to do as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 1:35:11 PM

QQQQ updated 30-minute interval chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 1:34:31 PM

QQQQ is now testing rising support connecting the lows since yesteday, currently at 38.20: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 1:32:55 PM

Sharp break for QQQQ below the 72 SMA: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 1:32:45 PM

SPX updated 30-min interval chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 1:32:14 PM

The OEX tests the neckline of that H&S (or rectangular, if you prefer) pattern on its five-minute chart. Bears want to see five-minute closes below a Keltner line currently at 570.35 and a 15-minute close below a Keltner line currently at 570.43. Next support in the 569.70-569.80-ish level on the OEX.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 1:29:40 PM

The RLX tests a Keltner line currently at 448.30, a line that short-term bulls, including short-term OEX bulls, would like to see hold on 15-minute closes. The RLX is at 448.19 as It ype, but there's more Keltner support just below, down to 447.34.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 1:20:26 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 1:19:20 PM

The OEX threatens to break above the top of that H&S visible on its five-minute chart, but hasn't quite done so, so far. On the five-minute chart, it's had some pushes up toward the head level, but the candles have always closed back in the shoulder level, leaving only shadows behind. There still looks as if there's too much Keltner support just below to allow that to confirm without a strong thrust down, and of course, I don't know whether any big-money people might be planning such a thrust.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 1:16:50 PM

Bullish swing trade setup alert ... for 1/2 bullish in the QQQQ $36.36 +0.65% ... should we trade $38.42. Stop $37.90, target $39.20.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 1:14:26 PM

QQQQ chart update at this Link with price walking along the 72 SMA. The short cycle downphase is growing tired here, and the 30 min cycle downphase needs a break of the 72 SMA to allow it to pick up the slack.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 1:11:54 PM

RLX pushing higher again, holding to support from 447.32-448.49 on 15-minute closes. Bulls want to see that continue, but it's far outstripped central channel support, way down at 443. No sign of a reversal yet, but the RLX may be reforming into a neutral triangle and that will give us some clues as to next direction, if it is.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 1:11:35 PM

I'm thinking that period from 12:10-12:40 on the 30-year ($TYX.X) was some type of reporting error. (i.e. 42.91 and 41.91)

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 1:03:41 PM

The 13B 4-wk t-bill auction went off at a high rate of 2.775%, with a respectable 2.83 bids tendered for each accepted. Indirect bidders (foreign central banks) took 3.3B of the total, on the low side of their recent range.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 1:03:09 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 1:02:25 PM

RUT rising again to test daily Keltner resistance at 630.95 (on daily closes) with the RUT currently at 630.01. With the descending trendline off the December high about five points ahead, I would imagine that might be a price magnet, but some potential resistance ahead now.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 12:59:10 PM

Session low for July crude here at 53.55. Ten year note yields are down 5 bps at 3.912% as we await the results of the Treasury's 4-week bill auction.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 1:00:22 PM

Good gravy alert! ... I've now got the 30-year yield ($TYX.X) plunging 5.7 bp to 4.192%. Not sure this is correct, but be alert.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 1:00:51 PM

Pressure building in the "bear camp" today. NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) has retraced 61.8% of its March-May decline. Chart with some inflection point NH/NL readings. Still a lot of bullish leadership to be had from here. Link MASSIVE h/s top pattern being challenged here.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 12:53:19 PM

A H&S still looks possible on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner channel, but there's Keltner support in the 570-570.25-ish level, so the OEX would have to get below that to break through the neckline. Might take a strong push.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 12:46:53 PM

10-day 30 min candle chart of QQQQ showing a potential head and shoulders top, the right shoulder setting up if bulls can't get back above the session highs here: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 12:45:12 PM

I'm terrible about remembering to check the RUT. The RUT's descending trendline off the December high lies at about 635.50, with the RUT currently at 629.34. The RUT saw a big Keltner breakout today and holds that breakout with a pullback that looks bull flag-ish and is currently holding far, far above the 626.25-ish level that would represent a 38.2% pullback from the climb off yesterday's low into today's high. Keltner support is somewhat disorganized by today's quick zoom higher, but first support is at 629.04 on 15-minute closes, then at 628.25 and then perhaps stronger from 627.04-627.45.

Despite all that bullishness, the daily chart may not be that bullish. It may be important to note that the RUT hit daily Keltner resistance at 630.94 this morning, with the RUT's HOD at 630.92. Maybe it's not a coincidence that the RUT pulls back a little? The RUT's pattern as it climbed up to that HOD off the April low looks oh-so-much like a bearish rising wedge, but we have seen these break to the upside instead of the downside. This is a point of danger for both bulls and bears.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 12:36:30 PM

Watching rough potential H&S's on the SPX and OEX's five-minute charts. No confirmation yet: no invalidation, either.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 12:35:35 PM

Swing trade long alert taking one (1) of the PETsMart PETM Jan. $30 Calls (QPT-AF) at the offer of $5.10.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 12:34:55 PM

SOX still holding above the Keltner line currently at 437.12 on 15-minute closes. Support is thinning somewhat, but there's not much Keltner resistance above the SOX, either.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 12:34:05 PM

Volume breadth has weakened to a still-strong 3.96 advancing NYSE shares for each declining, 2.69 advancing Nasdaqs for each declining.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 12:33:56 PM

Who let the dogs out? ... PETsMart (PETM) $33.08 +1.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 12:32:59 PM

S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 448.41 +1.05% Link ... shorter-term 21-day SMA moving above the trending higher 200-day SMA today. The holiday shopping season just 6-months away and institutional investors will likely be starting to add to their "favorites" with a Dec/Jan target.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 12:30:01 PM

The RLX's pullback still looks like a flag, but if it continues finding support near 447.85 and then rising into lower highs, it might begin to look like a bearish right triangle. This is one case where finding support at a certain level isn't necessarily a great thing. Hasn't really happened yet, but Keltner support is also beginning to thin on the RLX. I'm micro-analyzing here, but I believe the RLX's behavior is important to the OEX's.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 12:27:19 PM

July crude oil -.575 here at 53.925, current low 53.70.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 12:26:52 PM






Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 12:25:56 PM

Potential H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart, with the right shoulder still to be formed and neckline at just above 570. Watch this.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 12:23:46 PM

The volume wasn't there on the break above the bull flag top resistance line, and price has just fallen back below it, currently testing 72 SMA support at 38.30. Below that level, the 30 min cycle channel will generate its first downticks of the day. Link

Jim Brown : 6/7/2005 12:22:19 PM

The VXO at 10.90, nearly single digits, should be a strong warning that market sentiment is very unbalanced and high risk for the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 12:28:34 PM

Bullish swing trade naked put close out alert ... offer has fallen to $0.05 with no bid. Closing out the three (3) DIA Jun. $100 Puts (DIA-RV) at $0.05.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 12:21:43 PM

The SOX's 15-minute pattern is degenerating from a bullish flag formation in to a more neutral symmetrical triangle. That still could break to the upside, but bulls want to see 15-minute closes maintained above a Keltner line currently at 437.01.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 12:18:31 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.39 +0.53% ... Those that bought some PHF in their IRA's from 03/17/05 (10:33:17). I'm raising a stop to $8.95.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 12:14:59 PM

30-year Yield ($TYX.X) alert ... has whipped around and now up 3.9 bp at 4.288%. This challenges Friday's high yield reversal. If it continues, could bring some yield curve steepening and fuel equities to upside.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 12:11:14 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 12:10:46 PM

For those who follow the so-called "Headline Indicator," here's a potential example as regards real estate: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 12:10:14 PM

The RLX is trying to maintain its breakout status on the 15-minute Keltner chart, with OEX bulls wanting to see it do so. The RLX tests 447.79-448.18 Keltner support, and OEX bulls would like to see it maintain 15-minute closes above that level. The pullback off the RLX's HOD so far takes the form of a bull flag, but it approached supposed round-number resistance at 450 at that HOD, and so bulls don't want to see a drop accelerate. As I type, the RLX is at 447.90.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 12:09:03 PM

Ten year notes have strengthened, TNX falling back to a 5.1 bp loss at 3.911%. Support is thin between 3.9% and 3.8%, being the lower shadow of Friday's doji hammer candle. There's a 13B 4-week T-bill auction today, the reports of which will be released at 1PM.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 12:04:23 PM

The SOX is not breaking to a new high, but the pullback could still be described as bull flag-like. Bulls don't want to see it close 15-minute periods below 536.88, however.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 12:02:59 PM

New HOD on the OEX. Upside Keltner target of 571.81.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 12:01:53 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 6/7/2005 11:59:03 AM

Greenspan said the economy would remain strong, even as global long-term interest rates are low. He also encouraged China to unpeg its currency. Link

Doing some longterm charting on the $USB. From it's March 25th low of 109 it has risen to the 118 level. Why? I believe foreign central bankers are buying the dollar and parking it in US gov't bonds. New York dealers are buying ahead of those potential needs and going to sell at higher prices. But once this demand subsides the selloff will begin. Just look at the sharp gains in the $USD. With the descention in European countries voting against the EU referendum, causing a asqueeze play on foreigners rushing to buy US dollars to hedge against cash positions. Thus buying bonds to get out of positions.

Now what about the "inverted yield curve" and why it makes no sense at all. As the Fed raises rates, yields normally drop. However, the opposite has been happening (conumdrum). What has happened is a flatenning of the yield curve. Fed Funds at 3% and a cash yield on the $TYX of 4.18, can't continue.

My play onnthis is to short the $USB at 121 level. A conservative way to do this is to use the Profunds RRPIX fund, which is an inverse 125% leveraged fund on the $USB. Of course one can use Rydex or others. More leverage can be use going directly into CBOT Sept puts.

Here a chart annotated using the RRPIX, $USB and $SPX. I see a double top coming followed by a major selloff. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 11:58:45 AM

The OEX rises toward the 6/01 high of 571.08. Remember, though that the OEX's formation is a broadening one and that means that highs sometimes go higher before the reverse. It means that it's difficult to determine when a breakout has occurred, particularly before you know where prices will close the day. It means go with the flow as long as the flow is upward, but be very aware of the potential for a reversal and the need to protect profits.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 11:57:42 AM

There isn't yet the big surge in volume that would accompany a genuine cup and handle breakout, but the current prints above the descending bull flag resistance are being watched closely. A launch from here could be very powerful: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 11:57:32 AM

Hmmm... MSFT $25.77 +1.57% ... saw a "doji" in yesterday's print. Could have been a good $25 naked put sell?

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 11:56:32 AM

I'll update June "Max Pain" levels today, but most are going to be WELL ABOVE Max Pain strikes and we might be able to uncover some things in the indices, or a stock or two in an index.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 11:55:06 AM

Another push on the SPX toward the daily Keltner resistance just above 1214? Has some congruence with the level Keene noted in his 11:39 post.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 11:54:49 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... We were stopped on the NAKED SPX Jun 1220 Calls, but leave for now as an OBSERVATION for now as options market makers are going to have their work cut out for them into Thursday/Friday's triple witch.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 11:52:00 AM

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 11:50:50 AM

SOX attempting to hold Keltner support from 436.71-437.29 and break higher again. Upside Keltner target 440.85 if it can break to a new HOD and maintain it. Hasn't done it yet.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 11:49:38 AM

The OEX could not maintain that breakout above the bull flag. Not yet, at least, and it's looking vulnerable now to a pullback to a Keltner line currently at 569.69. Bulls want to see a measured zig-zagging pullback that stops at that level on 15-minute closes, not a steep pullback that crashes through to or below next Keltner support at 568.90-569.08. Or an upside breakout, of course.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 11:45:05 AM

QQQQ loses R1 support here, a short cycle downphase currently in progress. 72 SMA support is up to 38.27, below which the 30 min cycle upphase will stall. Intraday chart updated at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 11:45:35 AM

September Crude (cl05u)Link ... when I profiled the SPX naked call trade, this contract was above $56.77

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 11:43:54 AM

September Crude Oil (cl05u) $56.10 -0.60% (30-min delayed) ... just ticked $55.96.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 11:40:28 AM

Yesterday as the SPX slipped lower after I had written NAKED call on the SPX, was looking to then buy some "protection" with the SPX 1,225.00, but wanted to do so when SPX traded WEEKLY S1 (didn't happen). Watched those calls during the session and did see a good flow of trade at $0.75 when bid was $0.65. Those going for $1.90 today.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 11:34:35 AM

OEX is trying to break above its bull flag and then push toward the upper Keltner target of 561.70. Sure needs a new HOD as confirmation of that breakout, though. Here I go again--have your profit-protecting plans in mind if in bullish positions as the last several weeks' history says your play is living on borrowed time.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 11:32:09 AM

eCOST.com (ECST) $5.02 -6.16% ... got stopped at $5.00 an remaining 500 shares in personal account using 7% trailing stop. Stocks been holding near this level since morning low of $4.92.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 11:30:39 AM

Session low for July crude oil, -.575 at 53.925.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 11:28:05 AM

Velocity Express (VEXP) $9.93 +14.13% Link ...

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 11:26:27 AM

Volume breadth currently 4.83:1 for NYSE advancing volume, 2.89:1 for the Nasdaq. The TRIN and TRINQ are both in neutral bull territory at .62 and .63 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 11:26:18 AM

Check out a 60-minute chart on the OEX and that broadening formation is clear: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 11:25:52 AM

Good Gravy! ... Turbochef (AMEX:TCF) $16.25 +16.35% Link ... stuck in an order for some VGQ-AV at $5.00 last night, but no fill this morning. Just seeing it now.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 11:20:25 AM

Noting a potential H&S-ish formation on top of the SOX's 60-minute chart, although it's so roughly formed that I don't even know if it's valid. Ascending neckline currently at about 429.40. It may just be a sort of rounding-over formation by the SOX. Neither is particularly bullish, but the SOX so far holds most gains.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 11:17:43 AM

QQQQ has pulled back to daily R1 here, with the short cycle indicators and channel on the verge of a rollover: Link . The 72 SMA is lagging, down at 38.26, below which the 30 min channel would roll over. Currently, it continues to point north, in sync with the 60 min cycle.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 11:11:59 AM

Ramping in NH today from 10 to 11

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 11:11:33 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 11:09:40 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,208.29, DIA $105.63, QQQQ $38.41

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 11:07:02 AM

So far, the OEX's pullback is being accomplished with small-bodied candles, so that it looks bull flag-ish . . . and a possible test higher is beginning as I type.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 11:03:59 AM

Daily Keltner picture for the SPX: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 11:02:53 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 11:02:12 AM

Volume breadth currently down to a still very strong 5.46:1 in favor of advancing NYSE shares and 3.56:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 10:58:26 AM

Once again, as has been true lately, the OEX might be making some of its gains based on a the gains in components it shares with the RLX (haven't checked the RLX to be sure). The RLX produced a breakout signal this morning on the 15-minute chart. So far, it's maintaining this signal, but the RLX last fell precipitously when it finally did sink back inside its Keltner channels after the breakout last Thursday. Friday was a bad day on the RLX. Took a while, though, as in many hours, and breakouts can actually continue for several days or end after only a few periods in breakout mode. No way to be certain.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 10:54:59 AM

Big drop on the SOX, falling away from that descending trendline off the December high. Keltner support thins below the current 436.80-ish area, so the SOX bulls want to see the SOX maintain support here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 10:55:02 AM

Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK) $10.96 +1.10% ... #1 most active. One of New Jersey's largest banks completes its conversion from a thrift to a company owned entirely by shareholders by selling $3.93 billion in stock at $10.00 per share. Roughly 257.4 million shares were sold with depositors buying about 135.6 million shares in a subscription offering. Also announced it has split the stock 3.206-for-1 for existing shareholders.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 10:51:17 AM

The OEX continues lower and both bulls and bears are holding their breath. (Or is it "breaths"?) If the pullback is accomplished by small-bodied candles, it will just look like a bull flag likely to find support somewhere at 568.70 or above, but if it's steep, it looks more like a reversal, still possibly to find support in the 566-567 level.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 10:48:46 AM

Bears don't want to see a narrow range or sideways pullback here. The overbought short cycle and nearly overbought 30 min cycles will be looking for downside, but the meltup followed by a consolidation at the highs could turn the intraday chart into a bullish cup and handle launchpad: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 10:48:31 AM

While my "gut feel" is that we were stopped at an inflection high for the out the money SPX 1,220 Calls (SZP-FD) with current session high trade $3.00, it is tough to "eyeball" an option stop. Still, I didn't think we'd see the trade above WEEKLY R1 today and that time would slowly eat at the premium before we ever got close to the 1,220 strike. High probability now that we'll go WEEKLY R2.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 10:46:47 AM

Small-bodied candle at the top of a steep climb--that's what the last 15-minute OEX period produced. Bulls do not want to see a drop below a Keltner line currently at 569.82 on this period, as that will produce an evening-star reversal pattern on the 15-minute chart. There's stronger support at 568.70 or so, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 10:44:06 AM

Ten year note yields are pulling up, currently down 2.8 bps at 3.934%. Crude oil is down a nickel at 54.45, off a high of 54.775.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 10:42:39 AM

SOX hitting daily Keltner resistance from 438.46-441.03. For many, many months, the SOX has been rolling from one side of a daily Keltner channel to the other, and it's hitting the upside today, and has been testing it for more than a week. There's a slight hint that the SOX may be attempting a breakout, but no surety it will work, so this is a dangerous point Keltner-wise for both bulls and bears. SOX bulls do not want to see a drop after today's gains and a daily close below a Keltner line currently at 431.36. The SOX has been climbing that Keltner line on daily closes since early May. It's about time for a break, but tell that to the SOX.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 10:40:58 AM

All sectors green except the AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 186.16 -1.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 10:40:01 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,668.70 +0.92% ... strong move higher in last 30-minutes above the 3,650 level.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 10:38:25 AM

First red candle beginning on the OEX. There's historical support from 569-570, first Keltner support at 569.55 and next and stronger support at 568.24-568.45. Bulls want to see that stronger Keltner support hold up on a retracement and those of you short-term traders with profits in hand even want to question whether you want to hold on for a dip that low. Difficult question and one I can't answer, because historically over the last few weeks, you've been living on borrowed time once the OEX moved over 570. Will that be true today or is the real breakout coming? That, I can't tell you.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 10:35:40 AM

QQQQ has just reached the halfway mark to yesterday's pathetic 53M share volume.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 10:34:59 AM

Session high for Nymex crude here, +.15 at 54.65.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 10:33:09 AM

The 2nd half hour print for the CBOE total put to call ratio is a more moderate .73.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 10:29:27 AM

Volume breadth 6.5:1 for advancing NYSE shares, 4.25:1 for the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 10:28:29 AM

The SOX approaches the descending trendline off the early-December high, with that trendline at about 442.80-443, depending on how it's drawn.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 10:28:45 AM

Bearish swing trade naked call stop alert ... on the three (3) SPX Jun 1,220 Calls (SZP-FD) $2.80 SPX 1,208.35 ... VIX.X 11.65

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 10:26:04 AM

The 1st half hour's total put to call ratio (not just equity) was .49, an extreme low reading. I'm most curious to see what the 10:30 print will show. Currently, QQV is down just .16 to 14.11, the VXO -.56 to 10.92. QQQQ is pressing higher above the upper 30 min channel top. The failure to reverse indicates trending strength, a very bullish move so far.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 10:25:47 AM

SPX.X 1,207.33 +0.82% ... session high and above WEEKLY R1 (1,204.09) here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 10:21:25 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 10:18:54 AM

Nymex July crude oil -.20 at 54.30 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 10:17:50 AM

Ten year note yields are down 4.4 bps here at 3.918%, so far holding 3.9% support at the bottom of Friday's doji hammer candle body: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 10:16:07 AM

A daily OEX chart showing where it is with respect to various forms of resistance and the recent broadening formation. Link Over the last few weeks, breakouts over this broadening formation have been living on borrowed time. Be careful if in bullish positions. (I know, broken record.)

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 10:14:25 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 10:13:23 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 10:12:38 AM

Volume breadth is very strong on the NYSE, a whopping 6.48:1 in favor of advancing volume. On the Nasdaq, it's a lower but very respectable 3.27:1. PcQuote reports the TRINQ at .12, which I believe to be a bad print.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 10:12:56 AM

The SPX has already more closely approached the upside Keltner target of 1207.43 on the 15-minute chart, but shows a 1213-ish upside target on the daily chart.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 10:13:35 AM

OEX maintaining the move toward the Keltner target of 571.31 (moved up slightly) with narry a pullback. Be careful, because it's outstripping Keltner support now and is approaching the 570-572 resistance. I keep warning to be careful, but the OEX has also broken over a descending trendline off the 6/01 high and so should now have support in the 569-ish level, the current site of that descending trendline. Over the last few weeks, this 570-572 zone has been a treacherous one, though, and the OEX is still within a broadening formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 10:10:35 AM

Session highs across the board, QQQQ testing upper 30 and 60 min channel resistance here at the 38.30-.33 confluence with the short cycle downphase reversing early: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 10:09:39 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,205.51, DIA $105.36, QQQQ $38.28

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 10:04:36 AM

The Fed has announced a 7.25B 2-day repo to replace yesterday's expiring 9B, for a net drain of 1.75B today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 10:03:59 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link ... data feed coming through on energy futures.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 10:03:09 AM

On the SPX's daily Keltner chart, I'm showing likely strong resistance (on daily closes) at 1213.79. That resistance might also be a target.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 9:59:08 AM

SPX approaching the 6/01 high of 1205.64, with the SPX at 1204.66 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 9:57:29 AM

No pullback on the OEX, and it's set an upside Keltner target of 571.23, but bulls should be protective of their profits from 569 on. I must have rolled out of bed on the wrong side this morning, but am glad that I at least posted the needed information for those of you who were feeling more bullish this morning. Congratulations to those of you in those bullish plays I suggested for aggressive player on a move over the neckline of the inverse H&S, but the OEX is approaching the upside target for that formation, so be careful. I'm still feeling extra cautious for some reason.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 9:52:24 AM

Not getting any data feeds in from the NYMEX on QCharts. NYMEX reporting July Crude (cl05n) down $0.31 at $54.18. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 9:46:26 AM

The BIX has climbed up to test its 200-sma again. Over the last several weeks, the BIX has no actually found support or resistance at this average so much as it's traded back and forth across it, forming that consolidation pattern. The BIX is still within that pattern.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 9:45:18 AM

The SOX climbs this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 9:44:45 AM

QQQQ broke south of the 72 SMA and is currently testing it from below after a bounce from the session low at daily S1. The 30 min cycle channel is at 38.12 after compressing in the tight premarket range. So far, the short cycle downphase is getting very little traction, and breadth remains strong. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 9:44:31 AM

I feel uncertain of market direction today, and want to note that readers should filter my comments today with that in mind. So far, the OEX has zoomed up just as it should after crossing that neckline. Trouble is, it's not so very far from the 569-ish upside target of that formation and it's currently testing Keltner resistance. So far, though, all I can say is that the upside is working just as it should. Protect profits from 569-570, if that's approached, although it's possible that an upside target of 571.16 will soon be set.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 9:43:04 AM

Genesco (GCO) $35.65 +2.00% ... notable 52-weeker early.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 9:42:24 AM

Bullish swing trade establish stop alert .... Will establish a bullish stop on the four (4) Sirius Satellite Radio SIRI Dec. $5 Calls (QXO-LA) at $1.25.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 9:40:36 AM

OEX hitting 567.51 Keltner resistance. Should be time for a pullback, and bulls will hope to see the typical first reversal of the day produce only a mild pullback, perhaps to 566.60 or so. If a pullback even occurs.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 9:38:49 AM

Volume breadth is strong at the open, advancing volume leading 3.09:1 on the NYSE and 2.19:1 on the Nasdaq. The TRIN and TRINQ are both in neutral/bullish territory at .75 and .81 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 9:36:00 AM

Now that I have a chart, I see that the OEX has broken above the neckline of that inverse H&S, but now tests 566.90-567.42 Keltner resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 9:35:39 AM

Battered shorts, Mark.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 9:34:36 AM

Charts running slow this morning. Back in a minute.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 9:34:25 AM

CMGI (CMGI) $2.27 ... lower at $2.04 and #5 most active. Q3 earnings fell 72% to 19.6 million, or $0.04 per share, down from $69.4 million, or $0.17 per share in the same period a year ago. Company said the decline primarily came from a smaller tax benefit of $24.7 million, compared with a benefit of $76.4 million last year. CMGI said it operating loss improved significantly to $-1.9 million from $-6.5 million a year ago. Revenues more than doubled to $265.7 million from $105.8 million.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 9:29:08 AM

QQQQ just gapped lower, testing the daily pivot and challenging 72 SMA support. The short cycle downphase appears to be kicking off here just ahead of the opening bell.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 9:28:53 AM

Hunger for yield .... 5-year ($FVX.X) down 4.5 bp at 3.682%, 10-year ($TNX.X) down 6.1 bp at 3.901% and 30-year ($TYX.X) down 6.9 bp at 4.180%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 9:26:01 AM

Internet Initiative Japan (IIJI) $10.28 Link ... #2 most active stock and higher at $10.92. Yesterday, Toshiba said it was adopting the company's anti-spam solution. Bar chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 9:21:42 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $25.37 .... #1 most active and unchanged in pre-market trade.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 9:15:35 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.73 and set for program seling at $-0.58.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2005 9:13:33 AM

Just sell a naked put or a naked call Linda. That will "liven up" things and keep you a little more on edge!

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 9:13:10 AM

Yesterday's 30 min cycle upphase has extended, approaching overbought territory as the 60 min cycle upphase enters its midrange. The bulls should have enough gas in the tank to continue this show of strength for the rest of the morning. Opposed to it is the toppy short cycle, which can trend for hours if the longer cycles are sufficiently strong. Currently, confluence support at yesterday's high is holding at 38.20, while to the upside, next confluence is 38.30-.33. The 30 min cycle remains bullish above 38.16, the current 72 SMA.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 9:06:38 AM

Aren't you getting tired of this range-bound trading on the OEX? I am. First we see a big move that zooms the OEX from one side of its broadening formation to the other. Then a doji day. Another big move, but the opposite direction. Doji. Or, sometimes, the intervening doji is even skipped and there's just a zooming from one side to the other. Yesterday, though, we got the doji.

When's the breakout? Yesterday we got an example of what happens with these broadening formations. The OEX dipped to a lower recent low, but then bounced right back inside the formation. It did that to the upside just last Wednesday.

On the daily Keltner channel, the OEX may remain vulnerable to a decline to 561-562 as long as it produces daily closes below a Keltner line currently at 566.23, but will it climb back to the other side of the broadening formation and produce that close above 566.23? The 15-minute Keltner chart is even more ambiguous. Resistance may be gaining strength, but that gaining of strength is tentative as yet, if it even exists. The OEX produces a potential inverse H&S, but couldn't maintain values above the neckline yesterday afternoon, and will face central channel resistance at 566.60-567.28 if it does. Let's see what develops this morning, as I'm expecting that next resistance to decline toward the neckline of that inverse H&S, so that a break above it or rollover below it will mean something. There's, of course, a potential inverse H&S on the daily chart, too, but this is one on the 15-minute chart, neckline at about 566.30. Over the last weeks, buying 566 or so has been a good long play as long as the play was automatically exited at or near 570 and selling 570 has been a good bearish play as long as it was exited at or near 566, but I think that pattern has gone on just about long enough that there ought to be a real breakout attempt soon, so I'm not sure it's a good play now. Watch that neckline for your clues, but watch other indices, too. If internals support a long play and if that neckline is crossed and if you know enough about yourself as a trader that you can absolutely trust yourself to exit if the thing changes character, then aggressive traders might attempt a long play on a confirmation of that inverse H&S, but it's not a play that I give a strong recommendation, not with yesterday's light volume, the approaching SPX and Dow resistance, the behavior of some semi-related stocks in overnight trading.

Of course, bears can watch for a rollover from that neckline.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 8:55:35 AM

Nymex crude is lower by 32.5 cents at 54.175, off a low of 54.075 and a high of 54.55.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 8:30:58 AM

The headline following Greenspan's appearance last night seems to be that "low rates do not necessary imply economic weakness." Bonds are up strongly, with equities above yesterday's highs. Currently, TNX is down 3.5 bps at 3.927%, gapping below yesterday's low and retracing more of Friday's steep gain: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/7/2005 7:46:22 AM

Equities are up, Es trading 1201, NQ 1550.5, YM 10493 and QQQQ +.10 to 38.21. Gold is down a dime to a session low of 428.20, silver +.013 to 7.55, ten year notes +23/64 to a session high of 113 1/2 and crude oil is down .35 to 54.15.

We await the 3PM release of Consumer Credit, est. 7.5B, prior 5.5B.

Linda Piazza : 6/7/2005 7:16:07 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei fell last night, as did many other Asian markets, but European markets gain this morning. Our futures do, too. Last night, Greenspan spoke again of the continued low long-term interest rates as a conundrum, but didn't appear to believe that those rates necessarily signaled coming weakness in the economy. As of 6:43 EST, gold was up $0.50 and crude, down $.31 to $54.18. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Once again, the Nikkei coiled below the flat-line level, and this time, it broke to the downside in the afternoon. It closed lower by 53.17 points or 0.47%, at 11,217.45, and only a sharp rise just before the close kept it from closing below 11,200. April's real household spending fell 3.0% from the year-ago level. It was expected to fall but at least one source expected a decline of only 2.0%. Major retailer Ito-Yokado declined as a result. Exporters declined as the yen strengthened against the dollar. Chip-related stocks weakened.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but most markets typically covered in this report lost ground as many tech companies declined. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.52%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.53%. LG Philips LCD Co. beat the trend with tech stocks. It leaped 2.7% higher after announcing that it received a three-year supply order from Hewlett-Packard Co. for LCD panels for notebook PCs and monitors. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.25%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.17%. China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.33%.

European markets gain, with oil-sensitive issues such as airlines and auto manufacturers climbing as crude eased back below $55.00 again. Yesterday, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) suggested that the ECB may need to trim rates if economic data continues to be weak, but that right now, no such action was probably needed. Higher crude and euro levels might weaken the European economy. The ECB's Trichet responded last night by arguing that such a move would weaken the credibility of the ECB and do other damage, and that he's not preparing the markets for a move on rates in either direction. At a meeting of eurozone financial ministers yesterday, many participants concentrated on a budget, saying that it was absurd to even discuss an EMU exit. Ministers probably feel some pressure to get the budget in order after recent blows to the EMU plan and a minister said last week that the budget could be the next blow suffered by the union.

This morning, Germany's April industrial production figure showed an increase of 1.1%. An increase had been expected since March's factory orders had risen, but the increase was larger than projected. Those factory orders dropped again in April, and so April's increase in industrial production may have been merely a single positive blip in a series of negative releases since January.

European issues benefited from enthusiasm engendered by Seimens' selling of its losing mobile handset unit to Taiwan's BenQ and the LG Philips LCD deal already mentioned. Capgemini, a French business solutions group, benefited from an alliance formed with Lucent. The beverage makers were reacting to various possible M&A schemes.

As of 7:05 EST, the FTSE 100 has gained 16.20 points or 0.33%, to trade at 4,996.60. It did bounce above 5,000 at one point, but now coils beneath it. The CAC 40 has gained 10.22 points or 0.25%, to trade at 4,156.69. The DAX has gained 29.95 points or 0.67%, to trade at 4,527.21.

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