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OI Technical Staff : 6/9/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 6:07:32 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 5:15:32 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 5:11:19 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 6:16:20 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Stopped out of the four (4) Sirius Satellite Radio SIRI Dec. $5 Calls (QXO-LA) at the bid of $1.25. ($+0.20, or +19.05%). Day trade shorted the QQQQ at $38.02, stopped at $37.94. ($+0.08, or +0.21%) Closed out 1/2 of a full position short in shares of Bema Gold (BGO) at $2.09. ($0.01, or +0.48%).

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 4:37:55 PM

If one of our traders is sitting there in BGO with an extended session bid of $2.09, cancel it and go $2.08. My closing out 1/2 bullish is more for $10,000.00 = full. Gold stocks traded more with the broader market than I think/believe they should have based on my bond/dollar analysis.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 4:20:04 PM

The dip was bought, the stock back to a .49 gain at 27.59 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 4:23:22 PM

Headlines:

[INTC] INTEL CORP. SEES Q2 GROSS MARGIN PERCENTAGE ABOUT 57%

[INTC] INTEL CORP. PRIOR Q2 REV VIEW $8.6B-$9.2B

[INTC] INTEL CORP. SEES Q2 REV $9.1B-$9.3B

[INTC] INTEL SHARES FALL TO $27.25 FROM CLOSE OF $27.70

[INTC] INTEL PREVIOUS Q2 GAINS FROM INVESTMENTS VIEW $70M

[INTC] INTEL SEES Q2 EQUITY INVESTMENT GAINS OF $100M

[INTC] INTEL SEES Q2 TAX RATE OF ABOUT 26% VS PRIOR VIEW 31%

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 4:19:21 PM

Intel Second-Quarter Business at High End of Expectations; Revenue Expected to be Between $9.1 Billion and $9.3 Billion

Link

Stock trades down to 37.39, off a high of 27.80.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 4:12:42 PM

DayStar stock/class a comparisons at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 3:59:55 PM

Bearish swing trade close out 1/2 positiion alert in BGO $2.09

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 3:59:10 PM

I don't know about the rest of you, but this trading day has felt about 16 hours long. Good luck to those of you holding positions over the INTC update--I'm not in any purely directional plays except a tiny currency one--and that's by choice. I'm waiting to see what happens next, and for some clarity. I'll be looking at charts again tonight. Some look decidedly bullish but the TRAN is far from looking that way yet, although it's bouncing up into a test of the 200-sma again.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 3:55:27 PM

DSTIZ is the class b warrants DSTIW is the class a warrants

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 3:54:37 PM

Zooming out to a chart of QQQQ over the past 4 days, we see (aside from too-many trendlines) price coiled between 37.86 and 37.98. The 30 and 60 min cycle upphases still have gas left in the tank, but it's going to be up to INTC- a break of either trendline will have an impact on the opposed cycles across the various timeframes, and it could break either way. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 4:18:28 PM

Ok ... looks like the warrant structure is $8.50 on the underlying for the class A and $10.00 on the class B

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 3:51:59 PM

Here... quick read on warrants perhaps ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 3:51:03 PM

Don't know if I'll have enough time to check out structure of warrants. SPECULATIVE bull might look at the DSTIZ if the underlying stock were to pull back to that triple-top.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 3:50:13 PM

SPX and OEX have potential inverse H&S's on their 15-minute charts,too, and won't it be just like the markets to close just beneath or at those necklines, leaving everything uncertain into tomorrow morning? The OEX is just below 567-568 recent S/R as I type, in the middle of its broadening formation.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 3:49:21 PM

DayStar Tech (DSTI) Link ... never heard of them, but stock up after company entered into first sales agreement for its TerraFoil solar cells.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 3:47:22 PM

SOX still climbing, inching up toward the 6/07 high of 438.91. It didn't complete an evening-star formation during the last 15-minute period.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 3:46:11 PM

DayStar Tech (DSTI) $10.83 +57.55% ... warrants are DSTIZ $2.80 +124% and DSTIW $4.97 +240.41%

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 3:39:24 PM

The RUT didn't get far when it broke over a neckline of an inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart. It hit first Keltner resistance (625.76, currently) and stopped. Since this inverse H&S is opposed to the larger potential H&S on its 60-minute chart, a formation I mentioned earlier, I'm not surprised. I hate days when there are opposing formations like these. Watch both. If the larger one is going to be confirmed, we may sadly have a few more hours of consolidation at the top of the shoulder level.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 3:37:54 PM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 88.08 +0.22% ... DAILY Pivot Levels for tomorrow ... 87.61, 87.84, Piv= 88.08, 88.31, 88.55.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 3:35:33 PM

OEX still coiling.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 3:30:43 PM

SOX bulls are getting what I warned they wouldn't want--a doji or near-doji for the just-completed 15-minute period, after the previous period's strong climb. There's support just beneath that doji, and a doji itself signifies uncertainty. It's natural to see one after a breakout as bulls and bears battle it out, but now bulls do not want to see a tall red candle that matches the tall white one previous to the doji's formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 3:29:11 PM

Volume breadth is steady in bull territory, with QQQQ holding within its ongoing 30 and 60 min cycle upphases. Despite the oscillators running higher, however, the channels and price are not advancing, with 30 and 60 min channel resistance lined up at 38.05, hit just after 12PM at the session highs. With these cycles opposed to the daily cycle downphase, this should be it- but the INTC wildcard is huge, and the oscillators will follow the price on a big move.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 3:28:36 PM

Market participants did make some adjustments to their thoughts of further tigthening. September Fed Funds futures slipped lower to 96.50, with 100% probability of 2 more 25-bp rate hikes. Was about 75% on June 1. Sept. Fed Funds Futures (ff05u) at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 3:23:59 PM

Do you know where the OEX is going out of this broadening formation within a broadening formation? Link (Note: yesterday's candle is missing for some reason.) Study all those tall white candles and remember how sure you might have been that the breakout was going to be to the upside. Study all the red ones and remember how some felt that it was going to break to the downside. Note a couple of days earlier this week when the OEX started higher and fell back. If you can look at what's happened over the last few weeks and can predict which way this is going to break, you're better than I am. I can't.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 3:19:42 PM

euro bidding 1.2216 -0.12% $/yen bidding 107.46 +0.19%

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 3:18:53 PM

Looks as if the SOX is over both the actual descending trendline off last week's high and a Keltner channel line that it needed to close above to set an upper target of 441.55. Be careful of the current candle,though. Don't want to see a doji above the previous candle's strong climb.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 3:14:52 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 3:13:43 PM

OEX trying to push above the mid-channel level, but not entirely successful yet. Right now, it may still just be coiling as channels settle into an equilibrium position.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 3:12:50 PM

TRAN's next Keltner resistance at 3525-3528.77, with the TRAN currently at 3521.53. Above that, Keltner resistance thins a bit. The form of the TRAN's climb still looks like a bear flag. On the daily chart the TRAN is now caught between the 200-sma and 200-ema, from which it bounced today.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 3:08:12 PM

Keltner-chart wise, if the SOX finishes this 15-minute period above a Keltner line currently at 436.20, it will set an upside target of 441.52, although I'm personally paying as much attention to that actual trendline off last week's high, currently being tested, as I am to the Keltner level just below it.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 3:05:58 PM

As I draw it, the SOX is now testing the actual descending trendline off last week's high, in about the 436.80-437 zone.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 3:06:33 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link ... July Crude Oil (cl05n) settled up $1.74, or 3.31% at $54.28 on Wednesday, erasing the past two session's losses.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 3:03:16 PM

Ten year treasuries finished near their highs, with TNX up 2.5 bps at 3.965. Daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:58:20 PM

Intel (INTC) $27.50 +1.51% ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $26.33, $26.83, Piv= $27.28, $27.78, $28.23.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 2:55:56 PM

The SOX is at new highs for the day while QQQQ holds a pop back above the 72 SMA, with the 30 min channel stalling on a downtick. The 30 and 60 min channel indicators are in upphases opposed to the daily cycle downphase. Volume breadth remains positive, with overall volume already exceeding yesterday's sub-average 79M shares. The short cycle indicators are chopped up from this most recent bounce, with price net unchanged over the past 2 hours.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 2:51:03 PM

Lots of messy back and forth on the OEX as Keltner channels settle into an equilibrium position again. Resistance thins and so does support, and who knows where the OEX will go next. I'm not trying to be cagey, but just saying this chart gives absolutely no sense of the direction. The BIX doesn't look as if it's doing a good job of firming. The RUT is trying to bounce from the mid-channel level. The RLX's chart is ambiguous, although resistance may be a bit stronger than support. The TRAN is still trying to firm into a bears wedge that can climb, and so if off its lows but still not out of the breakdown zone.

Hey, SOX is attempting to break above the QCharts drawn descending regression channel, although it's not above the actual descending trendline off last week's high.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:48:51 PM

With oil closed ... euro bid 1.2214 -0.14%

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:46:20 PM

Bearish day trade stop alert for the QQQQ $37.94

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:46:17 PM

Bearish day trade stop alert for the QQQQ $37.94

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:43:42 PM

QQQQ $37.88

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:43:30 PM

Intel ... high of the day here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:43:09 PM

QQQQ $37.89 "back in the zone"

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:41:50 PM

Intel (INTC) $27.48 +1.40% ... hanging tough.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:41:04 PM

Ooooo.... "bad tick" on the QQQQ to $37.55. Doesn't make sense with QQQQ $37.84.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:40:12 PM

TRIN 0.83 ... a little kick up from its DAILY Pivot. Session high has been 0.89. Low pretty close to DAILY S1. Modestly bearish above DAILY Pivot right now.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:37:28 PM

VXN.X 15.39 ... post-greenspan high and my intra-day chart shown earlier, now shows VXN.X high has been 15.54, but all be darned if the bounce didn't stop there.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 2:36:22 PM

July crude finished +1.725 or 3.28% at 54.275, off a high of 54.40 and a low of 52.25. Updated chart 50-tick chart at this Link .

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:36:03 PM

I might be trying to squeeze blood out of the QQQQ turnip by canceling the $37.75 day trade target. If oil lurches further higher toward its close, then might be the right decision.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:33:56 PM

July Crude Oil (cl05n) $54.05 +2.87% (30-min delayed) ... hmmm... DAILY R1 $54.26. Session high has been $54.30 on my delayed chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 2:33:32 PM

Volume breadth is down to 1.32:1 in favor of advancing NYSE volume, 2.07:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:31:24 PM

Cancel day trade bear target alert for the QQQQ. Sensing some pivot analysis weakness.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:29:35 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) 104.73 -0.06% ... slip red. Below DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:28:37 PM

Airlines (XAL.X) 51.53 -1.07% ... now sector loser (see oil). TRAN 3,511.96 -0.72% ...

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 2:28:19 PM

The OEX's next Keltner support is at 564.90 and then at 563.77 and it does look vulnerable now to that 563.77 level, a test of yesterday's and the 6/06 low. However, it's clinging to the mid-channel level, each 15-minute candle leaving a small lower shadows as the prices spring up again. We'll see if this one does the same or if the OEX finally keels over.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 2:26:23 PM

SOX can't break out over that channel yet, at least, and it's coming down to test the mid-channel level on the 15-minute chart. Lots of disorganization in these beloved (by me, at least) Keltner chargs becuase of the volatility lately, so that mid-channel support doesn't yet look as firm as bulls might like it to look.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 2:24:03 PM

QQQQ tests 72 SMA support here at 37.83: Link . 30 min channel support is ticking lower already, down to 37.75 and just above the daily pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 2:22:40 PM

July crude oil +1.725 here at 54.275 with 8 minutes remaining of the day session.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:23:37 PM

INTC $27.43 ... DAILY Pivot levels ... 26.83, 26.97, Piv= $27.09, $27.22, $27.33. Analysis from here ... INTC DAILY R2 equivalent to QQQQ Daily Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:20:37 PM

Thanks Linda! ... INTC session high has been $27.50 at 12:55 PM EDT. QQQQ trader will note QQQQ was trading $38.01 at that time. Just off session high of $38.06. From here, I'm thinking INTC action may help QQQQ trader and just the opposite.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 2:15:52 PM

Are more SOX bulls afraid of being left out of the party ahead of the INTC update or are more bears anxious to jump in ahead of it? So far, it's the bulls running scared (that they'll be left out of the party) or shorts trying to cover, with the SOX headed up within a descending regression channel in which it's fallen off the 6/03 high. It's testing the top of the QCharts-drawn channel now, although the actual descending trendline off that high is a bit higher.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:14:53 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert for the QQQQ to $37.94. VXN.X 15.34 -2.91% ... VIX.X 12.22 -3.77% ...

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 2:12:37 PM

The TRAN climbs in what looks like a bear flag, but perhaps a large-enough and well-formed-enough one that it could climb toward a 25-38.2% retracement of the steep decline. The 38.2% level is at about 3563, but that conclusion is not certain since the TRAN faces what looks like firm Keltner resistance just above the current 3513.53 level, up to 3530 or so. However, once past that, resistance does thin.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 2:10:31 PM

Volume breadth is nearly unchanged from earlier, currently 1.51:1 in favor of NYSE advancing volume and 2.69:1 in favor of Nasdaq advancing. QQQQ drifted sideways through rising intraday support, with the short cycle downphase stalling as price holds sideways-up for the past hour. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:09:02 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 2:05:26 PM

The OEX has clawed its way back to the mid-channel level and is coiling, with the channels perhaps trying to settle into an equilibrium position. Remember that this is a potential right-shoulder level for an inverse H&S but one forming right in the middle of its broadening formation, so I'm just not all that sure we can trust it even if it confirms. The 15-minute Keltner channels do show that resistance thins once past 568.73 but so does support once past 563.83.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 2:02:11 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 1:59:27 PM

Can just about look at BGO, turn it upside down and see, or know where dx00y is at.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 1:58:33 PM

Dollar Index (dx00y) 87.97 +0.10% (30-min delayed) ... has been sitting on WEEKLY Pivot since 12:50 PM EDT.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 1:52:48 PM

The OEX's big caps are underperforming (Keltner-wise) the RUT's small caps. The RUT is above mid-channel Keltner support and the OEX is below it.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 1:52:29 PM

QQQQ $37.85 ... "out of the zone"

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 1:52:28 PM

QQQQ intraday rising support line being tested here: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 1:46:10 PM

Session high for July crude at 53.90, +1.35.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 1:44:53 PM

The SOX zoomed up, but does so within its recent congestion zone, too. It has broken back above the presumed neckline of a H&S on a 60-minute chart, however, so there's some danger to bears in that the bears couldn't capitalize on a violation of that neckline. The 60-minute chart has a general rounding over appearance, though, a bearish upside-down saucer, so bulls need to drive it higher to avoid that appearance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 1:43:49 PM

QQQQ ... $37.89 ... still in "the zone"

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 1:42:04 PM

euro bid 1.2225 -0.05%

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 1:42:58 PM

BGO $2.08 x $2.09 ... Daily Pivot of $2.11 holding so far.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 1:40:32 PM

The OEX is looking vulnerable to a drop again.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 1:36:10 PM

QQQQ $37.90 +0.50% ... "in the zone"

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 1:34:40 PM

Wow, don't know how I missed the SOX, but that was a big move off the LOD.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 1:33:38 PM

QQQQ day trader's chart at this Link ... with VXN.X reading at time of capture.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 1:30:50 PM

QQQQ intraday chart updated at this Link , price bouncing from 37.81, above the rising 72 SMA at 37.77. Daily chart of QQQQ:QQV from Monday's market wrap at this Link .

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 1:25:40 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert for the QQQQ to break even. Post profile low has been 2 cents above WEEKLY S1

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 1:24:57 PM

RUT turning lower, but if it's really forming a H&S at the top of its climb, it may be chop around for a while between 622-626. It's approaching what looks to be strong Keltner support on the 15-minute chart at 622, but it's approaching it at a fast rate and could bulldoze right through it.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 1:24:11 PM

QQQQ $37.85

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 1:22:24 PM

Bearish day trade target adjustment alert ... adjust bearish target to $37.75 from $37.70, or at least close out 1/2 if your a 1,000 share trader.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 1:21:27 PM

The OEX is testing Keltner support at 566.33 and bulls want to see that hold on 15-minute closes. And I'm not at all sure it will . . . oops, there goes the OEX, but there's still time in the 15-minute period. I thought earlier that if I were a braver woman, I would have suggested a put play at 567, but I wasn't brave enough and I still don't think it would have been a necessarily wise play anyway.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 1:16:18 PM

Headlines:

10-YR AUCTION HAS LOW 10.8% INDIRECT BID

10-YR AUCTION PRODUCES MEDIAN YIELD OF 3.969%

10-YR AUCTION PRODUCES 2.50 BID-TO-COVER RATIO

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 1:15:42 PM

FedEx (FDX) $86.71 -3.24% ... getting hit harder in percentage term than today's downgrade of UPS $70.96 -1.94% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 1:13:02 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 1:11:34 PM

Volume breadth is softening only slightly, currently 1.71 advancing NYSE shares for each declining, 2.78 advancing Nasdaqs. QQQQ has pulled back to the 60 min channel top, with 30 min channel resistance up to 38.05 and the 72 SMA turning up, currently at the 37.74 daily pivot. The longer intraday cycles remain bullish above that level, while a short cycle downphase appears imminent: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 1:07:46 PM

Yesterday, foreign central banks took nearly half of the 5-year notes auctioned, today just over 10%. From what I've been seeing, they tend to stay in the 1/4 - 1/3 range of the total. Currently, the TNX is up to a 4 bp gain at 3.98%, just above the middle of today's range.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 1:04:47 PM

The Treasury's 9yr-11 month note auction (read, ten year note auction) generated 2.5 bids tendered for each accepted, with a high-yield of 3.990%. Indirect bidders (foreign central banks) took a surprisingly small 854.6K of the 8B total auctioned.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 1:04:29 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 1:02:15 PM

So far, the OEX is just easing back, in a way that bulls will find reassuring, but . . . well, I'm just not counting on anything today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 1:01:44 PM

Any action in the QQQQ $38 puts? $37.96 +0.66%

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 12:58:54 PM

Jonathan ... you notice same VXN.X / QQQQ in your keltners?

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 12:57:27 PM

VXN.X / QQQQ tie intra-day day trader's chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 12:56:00 PM

Stepping away again.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 12:55:07 PM

Ten year note yields (TNX) edging back up, currently +3.3 bps at 3.973% ahead of the ten year note auction results due shortly.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 12:54:17 PM

The RUT may have a potential H&S on its 60-minute chart, but the OEX just has a broadening mess, and it's right in the middle now.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 12:53:15 PM

Crude at $53.65.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 12:51:41 PM

VXN.X 15.32 -3.03% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 15.16, 15.49, Piv = 15.80, 16.13, 16.44.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 12:51:02 PM

Big, big jump on the RUT. But wait before you get too enthusiastic because the RUT has a potential H&S visible on its 60-minute chart and the right-shoulder level would be at about 625-627, and the RUT has risen to 624.96. Gains might be limited now as the RUT investors decide whether to send it higher into an invalidation of that formation or the bears try to pressure it lower.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 12:47:49 PM

VXN.X 15.32 -3.03% ... VIX.X 12.34 -2.83% ... benchmarking QQQQ

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 12:46:49 PM

OEX Keltner support now from 566.18-566.87. Bulls want to see it hold, especially the line at 566.18. It's not as firm as bulls might like.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 12:46:00 PM

Bearish day trade short alert for the QQQQ $38.02 here, stop $38.08, target $37.70.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 12:45:38 PM

The moves across the various indices are upside key reversals on the lower low followed by higher high past yesterday's range. They're also countertrend to the daily cycle downphase in progress, but the strong volume and steep moves are impulsive. It only muddles the picture further, but there remain several hours left in the session. Bulls need to hold these gains.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 12:39:43 PM

Bulls, 568.05-568.73 resistance (Fib and Keltner) approaches. This looks like a likely place for a neckline for an inverse H&S, too, so there might be a pullback to retest former Keltner resistance to see if it's support now. And I don't have a clue whether it will be or not, as the OEX is within its broadening formation, the bounce could have been expected for technical reasons, and the zooming around has skewed Keltner charts. Be watchful for a possible pullback, and bulls want it to be in a measured, flag-ish type of pullback and not in a series of steep declines.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 12:36:54 PM

Volume breadth strengthens, advancing volume up to 2.05:1 on the NYSE and 3.14:1 on the Nasdaq. NDX volatility (NDX) is down 6.68% to 13.7.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 12:33:53 PM

Homebuilders (DJUSHB) have erased earlier losses of -2% and now unchanged. Gold bugs ($HUI.X) sector loser 183.28 -0.50%, but here too, comes off lows with broader market.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 12:31:38 PM

Looking more positive on the OEX, for the bulls. The OEX has now retraced more than 50% of the decline off the 6/07 high.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 12:27:41 PM

Session highs across the board, with QQQQ persisting above the upper 30 and 60 min channel tops. The oscillators have gotten in gear to the upside, opposed to the daily cycle downphase. QQQQQ 38.00 is confluence resistance from the past 2 weeks, and bears can be expected to defend that level.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 12:23:33 PM

The zooming around has of course skewed the Keltner channels on the OEX's and other indices' 15-minute charts. Like the BIX, the OEX has been in a descending regression channel and now tests the top of that channel as well as mid-channel Keltner resistance as well as hitorical S/R. A breakout, then, will mean something, but there's a possibility of another roll down through that channel, too. The bounce could have been expected. It's form was not the expected type for a technical bounce, but they're sometimes abrupt, so I don't think we can discount that possibility entirely, either. Bet you can guess what kind of villager I'd have been in my analogy this morning, but, in case you can't, I'd have buried my money and put on my oldest clothes and waited to see who was coming down that road. (See my 8:55 post.)

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 12:19:38 PM

Hmmm... just seeing QQQQ session low of $37.50. That's what some of our option expiration analysis suggested. For a "fake out" and buy weakness trade on late Friday, I was kind of thinking QQQQ $37.30, then the ramp.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 12:16:49 PM

The BIX finally punched below its 100-sma before bouncing. It still looks as if it's setting up a descending regression channel, but a punch above yesterday's high would change that impression.

Jane Fox : 6/9/2005 12:15:28 PM

Marc has reported on the this from Bloomberg but here is the WSJ's take on the Greenspan's speech. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan signaled Thursday the U.S. central bank isn't finished with its campaign of interest-rate increases, saying the U.S. economy is on a "reasonably firm footing" and businesses' pricing power appears to be growing.

Testifying before Congress's Joint Economic Committee, Mr. Greenspan said recent economic data aren't "presaging a more-serious slowdown in the pace of activity." Although inflation remains "contained," he said, corporate profits are suggesting "increased pricing power." Accordingly, he said, the Fed aims to continue raising interest rates in small increments.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 12:14:52 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 12:13:56 PM

As I scan charts of various indices, I see that many are coming up to test mid-channel resistance. The OEX, RUT, and Dow are among those, for example. The zoom higher has been anything but bear flag-like today, but I think we have to allow a little under the circumstances (steep previous drop, Greenspan speaking) and still consider whether it's only a technical bounce, likely to be reversed or whether it will hold. In other words, maintain some skepticism.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 12:11:18 PM

QQQQ has reversed all of the losses since 1:30PM yesterday, and is currently violating upper 30 min channel resistance. Link Volume breadth is strong at 1.95:1 for advancing Nasdaq shares and QQV is down 2.72% at 14.3 currently. The channel violation should indicate the top of the short cycle bounce, but if it holds without correction for 5-10 minutes in this area, then the channel and not the price will correct, paving the way for more upside.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 12:06:30 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 12:03:17 PM

Back. The OEX has zoomed all the way up toward 567 S/R. What's happened so far? The OEX has broadened its broadening formation to the downside. That's all. The OEX is within that broadening formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 12:02:47 PM

Headlines:

U.S. NONFINANCIAL DEBT RISES 10% IN Q1

U.S. GOVT DEBT RISES FASTEST QUARTERLY PACE IN 2 YEARS

U.S. MORTGAGE DEBT EXPANDS AT 10.5% IN Q1

U.S. BUSINESS DEBT RISES RISES 7.5% IN Q1

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 12:05:51 PM

May be nothing, might be something ... yesterday I bought 1,000 shares of INGN a stock I've mentioned in MM recently. I bought AFTER I had placed a then "naked call" sell order in on the June $7.50 for $10.00, WHEN INGN was trading $6.80. That order got filled AT THE OFFER, I then bought the INGN to get covered with thought "maybe somebody" thinks this thing going $7.50 + 0.10 = $7.60 on or before Friday of next week?

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 12:01:33 PM

Session highs across the board, QQQQ at 37.82.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 11:55:53 AM

Session high for July crude oil here, +.975 at 53.525.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 11:56:11 AM

euro 1.2216 -0.14% bid ... BGO $2.10 (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 11:52:57 AM

VIX.X 12.37 -2.36% ... session low and sitting right on WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 11:50:36 AM

Dollar Indx (dx00y) similar 60-minute interval chart as BGO at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 11:45:10 AM

Ten year treasuries continue their bounce off the lows, with TNX down to a 1.7 bp gain at 3.957%. The Treasury will auction 8B of ten year notes today, the results of which will be released at 1PM.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 11:47:01 AM

Bullish swing trade call option stop alert on the four (4) Sirius Satellite Radio SIRI Dec. $5 Calls (QXO-LA) at the bid of $1.25. SIRI $5.77 -1.02% here. One of the primary "reasons" I decided to snug up a stop on this trade is that I've been looking to buy a satellite radio system, and for me, I do like the XMSR product offering a little better for what I'm looking for.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 11:44:09 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 11:43:33 AM

The OEX is pushing toward 566.18 next Keltner resistance, with resistance thinning as I mentioned earlier. Next resistance at 566.87 and then at 568.69.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 11:42:56 AM

Big push higher (well, relatively) on the SOX. May be a 15-minute close above the Keltner level currently at 428.07, as the SOX pushes back toward 430.30-ish resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 11:42:20 AM

Big push through 72 SMA resistance here, with volume breadth flipping positive. Immediate channel resistance is 37.83 for the 30 and 60 min cycles.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 11:40:42 AM

Correction to 11:38:53 chart. Should read "swing target $1.82, not "$2.82"

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 11:39:39 AM

Declining volume currently leads advancing 1.08:1 on the NYSE and 1.04:1 on the Nasdaq, strengthening with price still below the 72 SMA at 37.68. QQV is down a .28 or 1.91% loss at 14.4.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 11:39:58 AM

Bema Gold (BGO) $2.08 -0.95% ... 60-minute interval chart with a "conventional" retracement, as well as WEEKLY Pivot retracement and Keltner bands at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 11:31:53 AM

SOX Keltner support trying to firm under the SOX, but so far, it's still finding resistance at a Keltner line currently at 427.80. Bears want that to continue, and bulls want closes above that level.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 11:28:09 AM

Dollar Indx (dx00y) with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement as well as Keltner bands at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 11:28:00 AM

The dollar is benefiting from Greenspan's testimony, at least against the yen.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 11:24:52 AM

Bulls want to see a higher low here to give the choppy short cycle indicators something to chew on. So far, the 72 SMA at 37.69 capped the last bounce, and a break above that level would confirm any bullishness implied by a higher bounce above the low of the day.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 11:19:38 AM

OEX resistance currently at 564.44 still continues to hold on closes, but there's now a hint of Keltner resistance softening above that. No clear picture as yet, though.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 11:18:20 AM

RUT trying to steady at/just above the 6/06 low after dropping below it. It did hit lower Keltner support his morning, twice.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 11:16:37 AM

Greenspan talking about why flattening yield curve MAY NOT MEAN economic slowing.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 11:14:52 AM

So far, the OEX is still finding resistance on 15-minute closes at the Keltner line currently at 564.48, but it's still trying to punch above that line during the 15-minute periods. If it keeps getting knocked back each time, bulls will grow less likely to try to send it higher, but the danger remains that one of these punches will hold.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 11:14:11 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 11:08:20 AM

TNX is down to a 2.8 bp gain at 3.968%, pulling back from 4.0% for the second time this week: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 11:06:35 AM

eCOST.com (ECST) trade at $5.50 generates a double top buy signal.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 11:05:52 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link ... showing 5-day and 20-day Net POINT change with focuse on YIELD action of major maturities. Is the short-end the "safer" place to be?

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 11:04:29 AM

TRAN once again trying to steady and move higher, but this hasn't been successful for several days. It's soon going to be testing a Keltner line at 3514.57, with the TRAN not having closed 15-minute periods above this Keltner line since a brief 45-minute late Tuesday afternoon.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 11:04:18 AM

QQQQ is reaching up toward 72 SMA resistance at 37.69, with volume breadth firming but still negative at 1.2:1 for declining Nasdaq volume and 1.3:1 on the NYSE. The shortest wavelet cycle is just reaching overbought territory, which has caped the bounced so far today. Above 72 SMA resistance, the 30 and 60 min channel tops are at 37.82. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 10:59:37 AM

I'm going to have to delay my "stepping away" after all, so I'm watching. The OEX is coming up to test that Keltner resistance now at 564.45, but doesn't look as if it will close above it this 15-minute period, anyway.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 10:59:07 AM

Live currency quotes at this Link ... when I went to bed late last night, euro low had been 1.2232 and was trading 1.2228.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 10:56:35 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes. Bears want 15-minute closes beneath 564.44, but need to be careful from here down to the next Keltner level, currently at 561.81. If there's a breakdown there, they just need to keep following the OEX lower with their stops, but there's a lot of bounce potential from 559-561, too. If the OEX gets above that first Keltner resistance, a punch up to 567 might be next and then next resistance is 568.71.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 10:56:14 AM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 88.13 +0.28% (30-min. delayed) ... session highs!

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 10:54:08 AM

Session high for July crude here at 53.425, +.875.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 10:53:02 AM

NDX volatility (QQV) has actually ticked red here on the bounce off the 37.50 QQQQ low, currently -.17 or 1.16% at 14.51. QQQQ is testing prior support at 37.61 from below: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 10:50:13 AM

OEX coming up to test 15-minute Keltner resistance lines at 564.06-564.40. Bears want continued 15-minute closes beneath these lines. We've seen some intra-15-minute period punches above them, but no 15-minute closes above them today.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 10:49:01 AM

BIX still sitting on that 100-sma that's been such important support since 5/18.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 10:48:21 AM

Various commodity futures found at this Link ... some follow on to last night's Market Wrap and energy trader's comments regarding focus on heating oil (blue widgets and red widgets). Note Net% comparisons with Unleaded Gas. For gold ... I can't figure out a bullish scenario in scope of thoughts for flattening yield curve.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 10:42:06 AM

The TRAN still hovers just above its 200-ema at 3494.76 with the TRAN at 3498.64 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 10:37:28 AM

The OEX continues to find resistance at a Keltner line currently at 564.62, dropping now to the 6/06 low of 563.58, just a few cents below it as I type. Still a possible bounce zone, but bulls can't be liking this. Bears should be just as careful.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 10:37:11 AM

Session low for QQQQ here at 37.58, with 30 and 60 min channel support lining up with daily S1 at 37.50-.51: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 10:33:45 AM

Volume breadth is back to negative territory on both exchanges, declining voluming leading 1.57:1 on the NYSE and 1.32:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 10:32:38 AM

On Greenspan's comments just released, my guess would that the "something at play" in the bond market would be foreign central banks- thinking of the nearly 50% participation of indirect bidders at yesterday's 5 year note auction.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 10:31:32 AM

Headlines:

GREENSPAN: SOMETHING "CLEARLY AT PLAY' IN BOND MARKET

GREENSPAN: NO SIMPLE EXPLANATION FOR LOW BOND YIELDS

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 10:30:32 AM

July crude oil holding the bulk of its earlier gains but testing 53.00 support as I type, curetnntly +.50 at 53.05: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 10:28:55 AM

Merck (MRK) $31.32 -1.01% ... was talking with Hank Camp again yesterday (HL Camp & Company) ... this one is NOT on the program buy list, but is a frequent on institutional sell list.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 10:26:39 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... For those looking to play the bullish scenario of a late Friday bounce and strength into next week, I do hope your following the action in the SZP-FD. I am and would make the observation that if I'm going to play some calls, I need to be looking at a STRIKE below 1,220. Also monitor VIX.X time stamps and understand if VIX.X up at 14 area, the impact of a declining VIX.X on call premiums should market indeed bounce into expiration.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 10:23:51 AM

BIX still holding just above that 100-sma but is now only a couple of cents above it.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 10:22:07 AM

Greenspan Q&A session about to begin, with multiple opportunities for minefields to both bulls and bears.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 10:21:41 AM

Ten year note yields are up to a 4.7 bp gain at 3.987%, helped along by this morning's repo drain and Greenspan's remarks. QQQQ rolled over from the 37.70 area, following the wavelet indicator back down. At this point, even the short cycle indicators are chopped up, with the 30 and 60 min indicators opposed and the daily cycle still heading down.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 10:18:40 AM

The SOX has not created a new breakdown signal on its 15-minute chart, but is mostly maintaining 15-minute closes below a Keltner line currently at 429.12, and so it remains vulnerable to a slide lower as long as it's doing that.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 10:18:26 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 10:16:09 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 10:15:53 AM

Looks as if the OEX bears will get their 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 564.98. Be careful, however, as there's much opportunity for volatility, as well all know and as the OEX is now trying to steady at the 6/06 low, forming a double bottom. It hasn't done so yet, but some are buying the dip.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 10:12:11 AM

Crude oil has reopened, July crude +.60 here at 53.15.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 10:10:33 AM

Session low for August gold here at 424.79, down 1.90 off a high of 426.40.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 10:09:50 AM

The OEX is testing Keltner resistance currently at 565.01, and bears would like to see a 15-minute close beneath that. If not, they certainly want 15-minute closes below a Keltner line currently at 567.15. Above that, Keltner resistance exists, but thins somewhat.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 10:08:54 AM

VIX.X 12.61 -0.70% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.80, 12.26, Piv= 12.54, 13.00, 13.28

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 10:09:12 AM

Volume breadth is now mixed, advancing volume leading 1.04:1 on the NYSE and lagging 1.03:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ is testing short cycle channel resistance at 37.70, still negative, but the longer intraday cycle indicators are closer to a bottom than to a top. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 10:08:19 AM

Periodically we all remind you of this, but make sure that you have hard stops in place at all times in vehicles in which you're highly leveraged. I haven't been able to sign onto my currency trading account since just before Greenspan began speaking, and, while I don't like it, I'm not panicked. Have my stops in place.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 10:06:03 AM

The TRAN's behavior is just amazing. In three days, including today, it's dropped from the top of its rising regression channel, all the way to the bottom. It's currently testing the 200-ema after falling through the -sma yesterday. I should say that it's slightly bouncing from that 200-ema at 3494.80 with the LOD at 3498.21 and the current level at 3504.50. It goes without saying that a breakdown through that channel and average would be bad for bullish sentiment, but that bears are in danger now of a TRAN bounce. Just about par for the period leading into Greenspan's speech, with markets getting parked somewhere where there's maximum danger to both bulls and bears. The TRAN has fallen about 170 points in three days.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 10:03:55 AM

Little buy program kicking in here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 10:03:38 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 10:02:52 AM

Headline:

GREENSPAN SEES NO MACRO EFFECT FROM HOUSING 'FROTH'

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 10:02:37 AM

TNX is up to a 5.5 bp gain at 3.995%.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 10:02:19 AM

Headlines :

GREENSPAN: SOFT SPRING NOT SIGN OF MORE SERIOUS SLUMP

GREENSPAN REPEATS RATES CAN BE RAISED AT MEASURED PACE

GREENSPAN: U.S. ECONOMY ON 'REASONABLY FIRM FOOTING'

GREENSPAN: UNDERLYING INFLATION REMAINS CONTAINED

GREENSPAN: CONSUMER SPENDING FIRM, BUSINESSES UPBEAT

GREENSPAN: PROFITS SHOW EVIDENCE OF PRICING POWER

GREENSPAN STICKS TO MEASURED RATE HIKE POLICY

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 10:01:47 AM

Sell Program Premium

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 10:01:12 AM

Text of Greenspan's testimony: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 10:00:10 AM

Since 5/18, the BIX has been supported by its 100-sma, with the support as clear as the resistance had previously been. This morning, the BIX again tests that average at 360.14 with the BIX's LOD so far at 360.30. The BIX is at 360.71 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 9:56:52 AM

The RLX has broken below last Friday's low this morning. It's pausing at the top of the consolidation pattern from the middle of May, but has set a downside target a couple of points lower than that. I mention this because the RLX's charts and OEX's charts sometimes mimic each other, with the OEX and RLX sharing some components. Not always, of course. On the daily chart, the RLX broke out of its consolidation pattern about a week ago, rather than just broadening it, as the OEX did.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 9:55:04 AM

The Fed announces a 7.5B overnight repo, which nets out to a 6B drain against today's 18.5B expiring and the 5B 14-day repo announced earlier.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 9:53:24 AM

The OEX rises to test the Keltner resistance just ahead, with the most important at 564.76-565.12. Bears want to see continued 15-minute closes beneath this.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 9:47:47 AM

Yield curve flattens further with 5-year up 4.1 bp at 3.765%, 10-year up 3.6 bp at 3.976% and 30-year up 3.2 bp at 4.257%. (see weekend market monitor)

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 9:45:46 AM

The OEX is pausing at the 6/06 low. Next resistance at 564.26-565.05 on the Keltner chart. Next support at 562.36l.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 9:42:01 AM

QQQQ chart update at this Link , testing lower 30 min channel support. That level should decline as price holds below the 72 SMA at 37.70.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 9:41:33 AM

The OEX's downside target is 562.37 according to the 15-minute Keltner targets, but the 6/6 low was 563.62, and bears might pay special attention from the current 56 level down to that 6/6 low.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 9:38:36 AM

Volume breadth favors declining volume 1.89:1 on the NYSE and 1.49:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 9:41:10 AM

United Parcel Service (UPS) $71.01 -1.86% Link ... downgraded at Morgan Stanley to "equal weight" from "overweight" with firm concerned about the prices the company can charge for ground service in an increasingly competitive environment. Cuts its EPS estimate for 2005 by $0.12 to $3.41 and cuts its EPS estimate for 2006 by $0.24 to $3.73.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 9:34:32 AM

Session low for 10-year notes, TNX up 4 bps at 3.98%, gapping above yesterday's high: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 9:33:37 AM

RUT heading down sharply, toward the 6/06 low.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 9:32:17 AM

OEX maintains the breakdown signal, but bounces immediately, too. As long as 15-minute closes are below 565.43, it might continue lower.

I'm wondering if my charts are slow, though. Appear to be.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 9:30:35 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle is in an early downphase against the upticking 60 min cycle, turning up from oversold. This is a good recipe for uneasy chop, but a break above 37.85 or below 37.50 should be enough to resolve the dilemma directionally.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 9:29:14 AM

Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) $2.77 ... our "old friend" is trading higher at $3.04 and #3 most active (I rate the stock an "avoid") after it said it has performed a successful initial test of one of its rechargeable batteries.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2005 9:25:56 AM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $77.44 ... #2 most active and trading lower at $75.62 pre-market after the maker of the popular BlackBerry said it has reached an impasse in finalizing the settlement of a patent dispute with NTP Inc. RIMM had agreed to pay NTP $450 million to settle the long-running dispute, but RIMM says NTP refused to honor its obligations and complete the final documents. RIMM has filed a motion asking an appellate court to stay a pending appeal and send the case back to district court to enforce the settlement.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 9:05:10 AM

Headline:

GREENSPAN TESTIMONY STILL ON AS PLANNED - PANEL STAFFER

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 9:15:56 AM

The Fed has 19.5B in various repos expiring today, and has annnounced a 5B 14-day repo, leaving 14.5B for which to account at the 10AM announcement. That 5B 14-day repo is the smallest two-week repo the open market desk has done since mid-March.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 9:01:02 AM

What's wrong with our automobile manufacturers? I'm just noticing a headline about the Pontiac GTO getting a power boost to 400 horsepower. One day this week an analyst was talking about how badly our manufacturers are getting things wrong, with them not able to move the big SUV's (yes, I know the GTO isn't an SUV--my husband courted me in a red one eons ago) while Toyota has an eight-month waiting list for some of its cars.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 8:55:31 AM

I want to start this OEX update with a story. Imagine that you live in a European village in the 1600's. You've just had a prosperous harvest and all homes are flush with gold. You wake up one morning and see rising over the horizon a great cloud of dust, and you know a number of people are on the move. It's been almost a year since the circus traveled to your town and the circus wagons may be traveling toward you, but you've also heard rumors that the lord of your region may wage war against another lord. In order to do that, he may impose terrible taxes on your village and perhaps take a few of your young men to be soldiers. Those may be his mercenaries coming. Obviously, your day could be wonderful or terrible. If you're the cautious sort of person, you're going to gather up your gold, bury it in a safe place, put on your oldest clothes and send your sons into the woods. If you're less cautious, you might conceal some of the gold, but take the rest on your person and run through the woods to a good vantage point, so that you'll be the first to get to the circus, ready to enjoy yourself and participate in all the fun.

Today, Greenspan's talk is that cloud of dust. We've had a strong rally in May, collecting our gold. I've been reading an article today about the changes that are afoot in our economy, with the ending of rate hikes likely to coincide roughly, within six months or so of each other, with the replacement of Greenspan and the uncertainty that will bring. Today, many are going to try to peer through Greenspan's discussion and decide exactly when the rate hikes will end, as those villagers might try to see whether those were circus wagons or weapons wheeling toward them. Now, before the day begins, decide whether you're the cautious type or the adventurous type. Either conceal your gold and hide away until Greenspan gives some clues today about what's coming or else go out to meet it, but be sure you're deciding according to the type of trader you are and how much gold you have at risk.

Now for the update. For weeks, the OEX has traded inside a broadening formation, with closes below or at 570 and above or at the 100-sma. As the formation broadened, the OEX began zooming from one side to another. The last two days, attempts to move higher have been pushed back to support by the end of the day. That's bearish. Trouble is, support continues to hold and if bears don't get the OEX pushed lower and keep it there, bulls are going to gain confidence. Link

The SOX did a better job of holding support ahead of INTC's update tomorrow. The BIX and RLX held, barely, to support in their recent consolidation patterns. The TRAN broke support in a major way, ending the day just below the 200-sma after dropping more than 130 points off Tuesday's high.

The OEX is primed to either bounce from support or plunge through it . . . or sit right where it is while market participants wait to see what Greenspan has to say and maybe try to figure out how they want to be positioned ahead of INTC's report. Here's what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart showed, however: As long as the OEX continues closing 15-minute periods below a Keltner line at 565.60, it's likely to continue sliding lower. That same chart suggest that 562.46 might be a possible downside target, but there's lots of early week congestion between the OEX's closing price and that target. If the OEX instead produces 15-minute closes above that line, it might rise toward Keltner resistance next at 566.40 and then near 567-567.40. Above that, resistance thins.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 8:42:58 AM

OPEC oil production can be tracked at the following Link .

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 8:42:07 AM

Headlines:

OPEC MAY CRUDE PRODUCTION ABOVE 30M BARRELS/DAY: PLATTS

OPEC MAY CRUDE PRODUCTION HIGHEST SINCE OCT '04: PLATTS

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 8:35:09 AM

Treasuries strengthened slightly on the release, TNX down to a 2.9 bp gain at 3.969%, with equities unchanged from their prior readings, still mixed with ES and YM red, QQQQ and NQ green.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 8:33:14 AM

The prior week's initial claims were revised up 1000 from 350K to 351K.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 8:31:46 AM

Headlines:

U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 21,000 TO 330,000

U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 2,750 TO 331,750

U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 4,000 TO 2.59 MLN

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 8:30:36 AM

Initial claims 330K, details to follow.

Tab Gilles : 6/9/2005 8:27:06 AM

XLE Oil is up this morning $53.15...+$0.61 Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 8:24:00 AM

Ten year notes are holding their losses, with TNX up 3.2 bps to 3.972% as we await the 8:30 Initial Claims data. Yesterday's closing chart of the TNX at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 8:02:13 AM

Greenspan is scheduled to testify on the U.S. economy to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress in Washington at 10AM.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/9/2005 7:40:45 AM

Equities are mixed, ES trading 1195.25, NQ 1530.5, YM 10481 and QQQQ +.01 at 37.72. Gold is down .90 at 425.70, silver -.049 at 7.426, ten year notes -7/32 to 113 1/2, and crude oil is up .45 to a session high of 53.

We await the 8:30 release of initial claims for the week ended June 4th, est. 335K, prior 350K.

Linda Piazza : 6/9/2005 7:25:39 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei dropped during its entire session, but other Asian bourses were mixed. Most European markets decline today, too. The dollar spent much of yesterday steadying and then beginning a climb, and continued that through the night, although it's treading water now. Our futures stayed steady while the Nikkei dropped, but have eased as European markets fell. This morning, the International Monetary Fund's Rato had good things to say about the global economy, pegging this year's growth at 4.3%, below last year's but still healthy. He believes that the U.S. economy will continue to expand, and eurozone and Asian economies should continue to recover. He commented that inflation is under control now but could accelerate if labor demand picks up, among other pressures, and should be watched. He believes that the dollar's firming has been orderly so far. Also last night, eight countries, including the eurozone and Japan, signed a letter saying that unless the U.S. moves forward with scrapping the Byrd Amendment, already ruled illegal by the World Trade Organization, they will retaliate. As of 6:59 EST, gold was down $0.40, and crude, up $0.40 to $52.94. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei started off Thursday morning in positive territory, but fell through the first few minutes of trading into negative territory and kept falling. By the end of the day it had closed down 120.15 points or 1.07%, at 11,160.88. May's consumers' tendency survey rose 0.9 month over month to 48.3. The all-households components rose 0.8 month over month, with all households including single family consumers. One source pegged part of the decline on a scare when five embassies in Australia, including Japan's, were sent suspicious packages, with at least one package's white powder since tested and found to be harmless. Last night, figures showed that April's trade surplus fell 5.6% year over year, and the current-account surplus rose 5.2% against expectations for a decline. The current-account surplus benefited from the government's foreign investments. That helped counter the rise in imports that was attributable to rising commodity costs. Some big cap stocks saw strong selling. Those stocks included Canon, Sony and Pioneer Corp.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.26%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 1.16% after its central bank's Governor Park Seung said that rates will be kept low since the bank sees only a modest recovery this year and does not expect GDP higher than 4.0%. Singapore's Straits Times was flat, up 0.01%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was flat, also, moving down but only 0.24 points and 0.00%. China's Shanghai Composite added 1.39% to yesterday's gains as the government continued measures to support stock prices.

Most European markets are negative, too, as they, too, awaited Greenspan's testimony and Intel's update. The ECB's June bulletin confirmed the central bank's watchfulness with concern to inflation and downside risks to growth. The bank expects only a gradual improvement in growth. The bulletin also notes that rates are already supportive of growth, seeming to argue against any pullback in rates. In the U.K., the April trade deficit widened more than expected. The manufacturing PMI export component had hinted at the weakness that produced that widening, though, as it was a weakening in exports that led to the widening. The Bank of England has left its rates unchanged this morning.

The French government announced an IPO of a state-owned utility and other utility-related stocks dropped. Chip-related stocks turned lower ahead of Intel's update. Luxury goods makers tended to benefit from an earnings report by Richemont SA. Eurozone banks reacted to changes in credit ratings by CSFB, with Credit Agricole SA falling and BNP Paribas SA benefiting from an upgrade to outperform. Deal news continued to move stocks, as it did yesterday.

As of 7:15 EST, the FTSE 100 had dropped 16.70 points or 0.33%, to 4,987.00, unable to hold onto the 5,000 level. The CAC 40 had fallen 24.94 points or 0.60%, to 4,146.41. The DAX had declined a more modest 5.87 points or 0.13%, to 4,551.42.

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