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OI Technical Staff : 6/10/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 8:03:17 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Note updated stops.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 7:48:26 PM

Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/10/2005 7:15:44 PM

AAPL is one to short on a bounce. Strong excessive put interest at 35 could be supportive, but the 37.50 to 38 area looks prime for some rug pulling. Gap close is 40, but I doubt we get that far. In any case, that stock is still overpriced and over-loved. It's going to be taken down. Ipods don't even have video and it's all going cell phone anyway. As for the desktop business, who is going to buy one now that we all now they are switching to Intel next year? Do you want to pay the usual Apple top dollar and be stuck with an obsolete chip? I didn't think so.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 6:37:05 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 4:35:59 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 4:15:52 PM

Cancel Bullish order alert ... Canceling order to go long the QQQQ for 1/2 bullish position at $37.28 (12:51:52). Didn't quite get there.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 4:11:44 PM

Global ... DJ - Brazil saying Q2 GDP will not be negative and sees inflation pressure easing. Sees rate cut this year.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 4:10:16 PM

Kerr McGee (KMG) $73.12 -0.37% ... DJ - Shutting production at 1 Gulf of Mexico platform, 2 producing areas. (DJ - correction to 3 platforms reported earlier)

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 3:57:33 PM

SPY Updated 5-minute chart with benchmark to the unusual Jun. $120 Call action noted earlier. Chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 3:51:28 PM

If today's lows don't get broken between now and the first hour on Monday, it is likely that the 37.38 low marked the 30 min cycle bottom as well as the 60 min bottom. The 60 min cycle is still in a downphase, but we often see it stall as the 30 min cycle begins to head up, as it's done in the past half hour. The daily cycle downphase continues, and suggests a lower high for Monday's eventual 30 min cycle top.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 3:43:28 PM

The OEX has been producing candles that close right along a flattening Keltner channel line currently at 566.26, further confusing the Keltner picture. It's punched up to that number this afternoon, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it hold somewhere just above or just below that number into the close.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 3:32:58 PM

Volume breadth holding negative, 1.06:1 for NYSE declining volume, 2.16:1 for Nasdaq declining volume.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 3:31:00 PM

SPY Option Chain just captured at this Link ... look at that Jun 120 Call. Who is the "smart money" here?

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 3:28:18 PM

This gal on CNBC (Muni-bond fund manager)... gives some confirmation of what I was thinking on Friday of last week. She's a lot smarter than I regarding bond market, but gives me some confirmation to my thoughts. "Long-er dated maturities more attractive..."

Jim Brown : 6/10/2005 3:24:23 PM

Traders are waiting for the RUT rebalance announcement after the close.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 3:23:46 PM

The RUT isn't moving too far either direction.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 3:23:18 PM

Here's another one (warrant) play on the move ... AFBKW $4.35 +210.71 , AFBK $15.04 +32.39%. Looks like a bank buyout though. Will check the news.

Jim Brown : 6/10/2005 3:23:34 PM

Energy trust EENC saw nearly a $1 bounce on that little blurb on CNBC. EENC pays a monthly dividend with a yield of 9%.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 3:13:33 PM

QQQQ has engulfed the range and is racing toward the top of the 30 min cycle channel. Currently, resistance lines up at 37.52 for the 30 and 60 min channel tops as well as daily S1 from below. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 3:21:48 PM

Dumping 1,000 DSTIZ here $3.38 +23.3% ... this warrant trade simply too complex/risky for me to have felt comfortable profiling for a MM trade. I'm not sure that I really understand the arbitrage that may, or may not still exist.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 3:09:29 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 3:08:45 PM

And this is the reason that I was hesitant to say too much about the OEX's little jot lower.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 3:02:09 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 3:01:21 PM

Ten year treasury yields finished higher by 8.2 bps at 4.047%. Daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 2:59:45 PM

BIX.X 359.44 -0.54% .... 5-year up 8.0 bp, but 10-year up 8.1 bp now. 30-year up 5.3 bp.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 2:58:00 PM

Global Trade ... China saying it won't allow exports of 10 types of textiles to Europe to grow more than 10% a year as part of last-minute deal to keep the EU from applying punitive quotas to those exports, as the U.S. has already done. The restrictions to Chinese textile exports will last until 2008, and applies to products including T-shirts and flax yarn, which is used to make linen cloth.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 2:55:39 PM

I'm hesitant to say too much, noting little squiggles here and there, because that's all we've seen since shortly after the open. In the last few moments, there have, of course, been signs of increasing weakness, but will the OEX push beneath yesterday's low and will it get too far if it does? Lots of different charts types show potential support in the 559-561 area. As I type, the OEX is already bouncing.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 2:49:03 PM

Intra-day notes ... Sell Program Premium comes at 12:15-12:20. Same time, VIX.X pops to WEEKLY Pivot (12.37, QCharts' 12.40). MSFT currently $25.41 -0.39% low of day also 12:15-12:30 was $25.34, but still looks vulnerable to me of another challenge.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 2:44:39 PM

QQQQ is ticking above 72 SMA resistance for the first time today, reversing sharply as I type. The 30 min cycle indicators are now oversold and showing a slight uptick, as is the 30 min cycle channel. The 60 min oscillators continue to point lower. While the shape of the current light volume drift on the weak short cycle upphase is a bear flag, the 30 min cycle looks bottomy. That's the current tension intraday, within the ongoing daily cycle downphase. QQQQ bulls need to break 37.50, followed by a confirming move above 37.61 to get a 30 min cycle upphase going. So far, volume is weak and volume breadth 2.33:1 negative. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 2:37:05 PM

July crude finished -.725 or 1.34% at 53.55, 12.5 cents off the low. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 2:36:00 PM

Awesome commentary from futures trader regarding orange juice futures and analysis of what market things of hurricane damage. That's "thinking outside the box!"

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 2:40:47 PM

The bears can't drive the OEX below the 563-564 level. The bulls can't move it above the 566-568 zone. They're equally matched again, and until and unless one group gains strength, the OEX will continue to coil.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 2:35:17 PM

02:25 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 2:33:27 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 2:28:22 PM

Got tied up on the phone with HL Camp & CO.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 2:28:06 PM

02:25 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 2:22:20 PM

Session low for July crude oil at 53.525 here with 8 minutes left in the session.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 2:22:04 PM

So much for the downside breaks. The SOX bounced right back up into the consolidation pattern from the last few hours. The OEX did, too. Dangerous to make any assumptions today.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 2:10:22 PM

When viewed on a five-minute chart, the OEX is breaking below the support of the bear flag in which it climbed off the day's low. The 15-minute chart shows next potential support from 563.55-563.88.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 2:08:49 PM

QQQQ tumbled back to the low end of short cycle channel support after failing on the 72 SMA touch at 37.50. Currently, 30 min channel support is down to 37.30, if the short cycle upphase gives up the ghost: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 2:08:49 PM

No sooner did I upload that post about the SOX consolidating than it actually did inch lower, below the consolidation pattern in which it had held. This is a typical stop-running time of day, so be careful if in bearish positions. You don't want to see a quick reversal.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 2:04:54 PM

The Keltner line currently at 430.49 continues to pressure the SOX, but not pressure it lower. Not over the last couple of hours anyway. The SOX has been consolidating just below this line.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 2:03:53 PM

Ten year treasury yields (TNX) are up 6.6 bps to 4.031%, ZN tagging a low of 113, currently -35/64 at 113 1/64.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 2:03:05 PM

Estimates for the amount of the budget deficit ranged from -36B to -45B.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 2:02:31 PM

Headlines:

U.S. MAY FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT $35.3B VS. $62.5B

U.S. MAY FEDERAL OUTLAYS UP 5.6% Y-O-Y TO $188B

U.S. MAY FEDERAL RECEIPTS UP 32.2% Y-O-Y TO $152.7B

U.S. FEDERAL RECEIPTS YEAR-TO-DATE UP 15.4%

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 2:01:01 PM

INTC below $27.00 again, but only barely. Still holding to the about-$26.80 support on its consolidation pattern from the last two weeks.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 1:56:55 PM

Session low for ZN bond futures just now now, -17/32 at 113 1/32 with TNX up 6.3 bps to 4.028%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 1:55:41 PM

VIX.X 12.22 +1.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 1:54:51 PM

Swing trade sell naked put alert ... let's sell five (5) of the S&P Dep. Receipt Jun $118 Puts (SPY-RN) at this bid of $0.25. SPY $119.87 here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 1:49:49 PM

SPY 60-minute chart with benchmark of 04/05/05 large blocks noted in MM that evening. Any thoughts as to bull/bear? Any thoughts to "intra-day" impact on 05/18? Chart at this Link ... also add some "NEW" observations. Think about your 38.2% fitted technique. What's going on today?

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 1:46:13 PM

The RUT is still doing some right-shoulder building (60-minute chart and, now, possibly on the 15-minute chart, too). Can't tell yet if those will more likely be confirmed or invalidated.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 1:41:24 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 1:40:05 PM

QQQQ's breaking its range here, heading for a test of declining 72 SMA resistance. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 1:36:51 PM

The OEX's rise off the LOD looks corrective, but resistance above the current level doesn't look massive, so it's uncertain whether it can stop the OEX. First resistance did during the last 15-minute period, with that resistance at 564.77, and with next resistance above that at 565.52-565.83.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 1:35:13 PM

Thanks, Jeff, for the 1:28 comments. My problem was in figuring out whether I was seeing only one side of a calendar spread or a debit or credit spread. Different interpretations could accrue to each of those, and it was like an equation with too many variables. If I found something that looked important, I'd be scanning for block trades several months out, trying to figure it out. I know that some traders find them more useful, however, and I thought you might be one.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 1:31:49 PM

Coiling. This is maddening, but there will be better trading days, I promise, and this is an ideal time to check out some new trading techniques (by paper trading) or indicators that had interested you. Pull out your copy of McMillan's book and scan the pages, and you might be amazed at what you missed the first time around when you were a new trader and hadn't already tried to extricate yourself from a bear call spread when a stock was seeing a short squeeze. (Hint: Don't clap your hands tightly together, squeeze your eyes shut and murmur prayers.) Your time doesn't have to be wasted.

When I was writing only fiction, some of those dreaded writers-block days inevitably rolled around. Rather than driving myself crazy sitting in front of the monitor, I would pick up my purse and head to the bookstore. I'd pull out a pile of books and scan first pages. How did the writers pull readers into the story right away? How many characters were introduced on the first page? Which publishers were producing books like the ones I was writing? Those days were never wasted, and days like these don't have to be, either. Just don't waste your trading account by overtrading on days like this.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 1:31:29 PM

Volume is quite thin on this short cycle upphase, and price is getting no traction. The 30 and 60 min cycles as well as the daily continie to point south, which explains the corrective nature of the short cycle upphase. The 30 min cycle oscillator is approaching oversold, however, so bears need to be on the lookout for a bounce above the 72 SMA at 37.52. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 1:28:07 PM

Linda (per 01:09:35) ... I don't screen for them, but when I see them I sure make note. True perhaps for day-to-day trading, but I believe large blocks are institutional, and institutions tend to be "longer-term." So, I'll benchmark the level and often-times, these levels can become important when I feel "great pressure" and perhaps, not unlike a "max pain theory" level, can try and figure out ... is/was that large block on the right side of the trade, or wrong side of the trade from that level. If the large block found direction within several days of noting, I figure SMART MONEY was correct. If large block found and direction down, I then assume the smart money was short/bearish. Then in the future, if that level is tested again, check various technicals, if starting to look BULLISH, I then begin to analyze ... where does the prior SMART MONEY BEAR admit his mistake. Perhaps, if we've seen a large volume bottom, then he/she already did, but locked in the gain, and he/she is also ready to inflict some damage, but now to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 1:20:10 PM

10:00 Internals found at this Link ... making some note here regarding the shorter-dated 5-year yield. Since Friday this yield has backed up a whopping 8.4 bp at current benchmark, while longest-dated 30-year up just 0.4 bp.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 1:14:22 PM

Light volume today, with 55.6M QQQQ shares traded compared with yesterday's 99.4M and the average of 93.6M. Declining volume leads 2.46:1 on the Nasdaq and 1.26:1 on the NYSE.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 1:09:35 PM

Jeff, do you watch block trades? I tried that for a while, but never found it particularly helpful in my day-to-day trading. I wasn't sure whether I just never gained enough interpretative skills or it just isn't that helpful.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 1:07:38 PM

Here's the RUT's potential H&S on the 60-minute chart, complete with bearish price/RSI divergence as the head was formed. Link That divergence isn't a guarantee that the formation will be confirmed, but it's a nice corroboration to see. Now we see whether there's a bump much higher, invalidating the formation or a downturn toward or through the neckline.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 1:07:22 PM

OK Linda .... just wondered.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 1:04:42 PM

I heard a blurb on CNBC regarding trade gap and strong import of jewelry. With dollar strength not impacting gold, this might be in play. If so, does this say something about US consumer?

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 1:03:20 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 12:59:49 PM

OEX still sitting on potential Keltner support.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 12:54:09 PM

RUT still rattling around at the right-shoulder level for the potential H&S on the 60-minute chart. On the 15-minute chart, it looks as if support is beginning to soften, but resistance doesn't look particularly strong yet, either.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 12:52:38 PM

Jeff, just saw your 12:30. Sorry, I haven't been monitoring the OEX option chain this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 12:51:52 PM

Bullish swing trade long setup alert for the QQQQ $37.45 -1.31% ... go long 1/2 bullish on trade at $37.28, stop $36.95, will target back near $38.00, say $37.95. If filled, then would want to see a close back above $37.47 for bullish thoughts into next week.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 12:49:40 PM

Ten year note yields are up 5.4 bps to 4.019% here on a sharper drop in the ZN bond future- trying again for the 4.020%-4.022% resistance that capped the last attempt.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 12:49:04 PM

OEX trying to steady at support between 563-564. That was to be expected. Keltner resistance has thinned somewhat, at 565.03 and then 565.80-566.57. Resistance might have thinned enough to allow the OEX to bounce . . . unless the light volume during the lunchtime lull allows it to be pushed lower in a stop-running push, beneath the Keltner level that's now serving as support, turning it into resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 12:45:49 PM

Bearish swing trade stopped alert on remaining 1/2 BGO short at $2.23

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 12:43:44 PM

Bema Gold (BGO) $2.22 +5.71% ... breaks above WEEKLY Pivot here.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 12:44:11 PM

GOOG was a good example of that last month. Maxpain edged slowly higher as price melted and gapped higher day after day. Most likely this effect was caused by call writers hedging by going long the stock, which fed the loop and amplified the meltup. The trouble is that max pain remained 20-30 points below the market until op-ex, and can hinder a trader trying to read the price by implying a bias that the stock might no longer have. Like following the put to call ratios too closely intraday, I've found that my view of the price works better when I focus more on price and less on other elements- that, and I can usually confuse myself with multiple scenarios using so-called "secondary" indicators.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 12:40:35 PM

"Max Pain" thoughts and why I feel traders SHOULD monitor them! Jonathan's reply is IMPORTANT. What I think traders miss is the "why" did they go through or finish far away from the level. When you try and answer that, you build the bull/bear scenario as to who's on the "wrong side" of the trade, and what they're going to be doing to try and get on the RIGHT side of things before expiration. What "good" would Max Pain be if we ALWAYS finished at the theory level? The market would be too efficient, and wouldn't move if that were always the case. My thoughts at least.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 12:38:41 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 12:36:49 PM

June 120 Call time/sales with b/a at this Link ... OK ... that sell premium came at 12:17, followed by this trade. Me thinks option market maker knows he's got to buy the calls, so sells basket of stocks. 120 + $0.50 becomes upside risk, or reward at this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 12:34:29 PM

Aug. gold has just broken the 429 resistance, currently +3.40 at 429.30 off a high of 430.3. Above that level, 432-433 is key confluence.

Tab Gilles : 6/10/2005 12:33:38 PM

Going thru some bond charts this morning.Just to follow-up on my 6/7 11:59 AM and 6/8 4:46PM posts on MM.It is my opinion that one should consider hedging their bond portfolio in the coming days as we could possibly see a bond pullback. TLT Link EVV Link Several bond charts... Link

past chart; TLT weekly Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 12:32:56 PM

Session low for July crude here at 53.875, -.40 here, breaking the uptrend: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 12:30:54 PM

Linda ... anything in the OEX option chain?

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 12:30:17 PM

Looks as if SOX bears might be breaking the SOX lower out of that falling-wedge-like previous formation. Next Keltner support at 428.45 and then way down at 423.36. Next resistance at 431.12 and then just above 432.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 12:30:08 PM

Nope. I like your observations re: 37-38 range and find them compelling. I no longer devote much attention to max-pain theory, though, after watching the levels miss through many op-ex weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 12:29:18 PM

SPY Option Chain ... seconds before screen capture, I had sorted by volume. Saw this ... Link

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 12:28:46 PM

Those of you who are investors in the RUT and who might be reading only the options side of the monitor need to click over and read Jim's 12:08 post.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 12:26:12 PM

Jonathan ... you see anything in the QQQQ chain?

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 12:25:45 PM

There's something a bit suspicious about the shape of the SOX's decline on the 15-minute chart. It looks a little like a falling wedge. SOX bears needs to drive it lower and break it down out of that wedge.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 12:25:41 PM

Back to find gold at a session high of 427.70, approaching 428-429 confluence, and QQQQ bouncing from lower channel support at 37.38. The short cycle indicators show slight bearish divergences, and so bears need to be on the alert for a bounce that could stick. The 30 and 60 min channels remain bearish below the 72 SMA at 37.62, while the first sign of potential trouble would be a bounce that clears prior wavelet resistance at 37.57. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 12:25:32 PM

Big call volume at the bid of $0.50 in the SPY June $120's ... 12:21:57 4,550 traded at $0.50.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 12:17:15 PM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,194.00, DIA $104.58, QQQQ $37.39.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 12:14:50 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 12:14:17 PM

The BIX, too, slides down toward yesterday's LOD.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 12:10:53 PM

Remember that the SOX's 200-week sma is at 426.23, just four points below the SOX's current level.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 12:07:55 PM

The OEX drops toward 564 next Keltner support. Historically, that support drops to 563-563.50.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 12:05:03 PM

Tentative break on the RUT below a Keltner line currently at 626.02. Other than a single close below that line on yesterday's 2:15 candle, the RUT has not moved closed below that Keltner line since beginning its bounce yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 12:03:01 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 12:03:00 PM

I need to step away for 10 minutes to allow the cleaning staff into my office- back shortly.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 12:02:37 PM

At 26.80, INTC is testing just above the lows for the past 2 weeks at 26.72.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 11:59:57 AM

New LOD on the OEX, and perhaps that blunted rise was the right shoulder after all. Keltner-wise, the OEX will find next resistance near 564.02, with support below that at 561.33. Bears should have profit-protecting plans for those levels.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 11:58:59 AM

QQQQ PnF chart, but technique of using percentage box size. Previously noted 1% box at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 11:58:16 AM

QQQQ now testing yesterday's low, ticking below it as I type. 30 min channel support edges lower to 37.41.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 11:52:38 AM

The OEX is dropping again toward yesterday's late-day swing low, but I'm still wondering about that potential H&S scenario. That wasn't much of a right shoulder, so I'm wondering if there's still a right shoulder to be formed.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 11:49:45 AM

Session low for QQQQ, 30 min channel support holding at 37.42: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 11:48:52 AM

Still watching that right-shoulder level from the RUT. On the 15-minute chart, I note that support is beginning to thin now, but so far, the RUT continues to produce 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 626.13. Coming down to test that now.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 11:48:21 AM

INTC breaks 27.00 here, currently down .72 or 2.6% at 26.98.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 11:43:36 AM

QQQQ bar chart from prior Index Wrap at this Link ... was reviewing this chart in combination with previosly discussed $35.50 option expiration analysis from the June $37 Strikes. Again... in last night's option chain capture it isn't a suprise that Jun $37 call $1.00 and $37 put $0.05 are seeing some prem erosion and now $37.48, where option market maker's bias should grow more bullish the closer to $37 Put interest. Note yesterday's Avg.OHLC. If still looking for a "drop and pop" into Friday, I think a trap has to be built, the trap to influence the long option holder to ACT!

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 11:42:36 AM

July crude is pulling back from a high at 54.90, currently up .475 at 54.75, comfortably within the rising channel from yesterday morning. 50 tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 11:41:41 AM

We need to invent a new name for a formation when small-bodied candles cling to the underside of an important Keltner line or MA, as they're doing with red Keltner line here. Link Bats on a line? And is it a bearish or a bullish formation? I think it's an unsettled one. Bulls can't maintain closes above that line despite sending all those candle shadows to test it, but neither can bears drive prices far from that line.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 11:37:22 AM

Ten year treasuries failed to make a lower low there, and the yield (TNX) is back down to 4.012%, up 4.7 bps today. Daily chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 11:31:36 AM

Coiling. My least favorite word lately.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 11:29:47 AM

Session high for July crude at 54.875 here, +.60.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 11:26:47 AM

SPY Option Chain at this Link ... June "Max Pain" still $119 ($1 increments), and quick check of September is $117 ($1 increments) with Sep $120 Call most active.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 11:26:03 AM

NYSE advancing volume now leads 1.08:1, Nasdaq declining leads 2.12:1. QQQQ is on a short cycle buy signal but with zero price traction. Link This suggests that the short cycle upphase is corrective within the ongoing 30 and 60 min downphases, and 30 min channel support is down to 37.42. However, it's still early, and the short cycle upphase could potentially run for a few hours, if it doesn't abort first.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 11:24:59 AM

The RUT is still holding up fairly well today, but it's coiling and hasn't been able to make headway above the inverse H&S it confirmed late yesterday (15-minute chart). Remember that the RUT has a potential H&S on its 60-minute chart and it's at the right-shoulder level. I mentioned yesterday that the RUT might have several more hours consolidating at the top of the right shoulder level. It's had a couple more hours now.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 11:15:17 AM

Many indices--SPX and SOX, included--have setups similar to the SOX's. They're coiling just underneath what appears to be strong Keltner resistance. The Dow's is a little different, however, with the Dow coiling at and slightly above that Keltner mid-channel level.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 11:13:38 AM

Here's what the Keltner channels show on the SOX: It's coiling just beneath firming Keltner resistance from 432.72-433.13. That resistance looks firm enough to turn the SOX lower if tested, with next support near 428.43 and then at 423.06. The problem is that the SOX's channels are settling into an equilibrium position, too, and those readings may not be as valuable as they usually are. They certainly look as if they can be trusted, however, although they'll move if the SOX dosn't test them soon.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 11:10:17 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 11:04:51 AM

The OEX is bouncing. (GM is an OEX component.) However, it's bouncing right into that Keltner resistance near 566.50-566.80. Will the regular H&S confirm by falling below 565-565.40? Will the inverse H&S confirm by moving above today's high? Both are possibilities.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 11:02:54 AM

Ten year note yields have just bounced, 4.0% holding today with TNX currently +5.2 bps at 4.017%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 11:02:09 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 11:00:13 AM

Volume breadth has strengthened, still negative but only fractionally for the NYSE with declining volume leading 1.01:1, while the only Nasdaq declining volume leads 1.98:1.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 10:58:36 AM

Sometimes after prices spend a few days zooming from one side to the other of a broadening formation, they then start narrowing, sometimes into a diamond formation. I don't see a diamond formation exactly on the OEX's daily chart, but the formation may now be narrowing. Sometimes--not always--when that happens, the formation's parameters will become clearer. It's certainly easier to pinpoint a breakout of a narrowing formation than a broadening one, at least. However this formation still looks messy and spiky with candle shadows and difficult to contain with anything as mundane as a trendline, so I don't see that clarity I'd like just yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 10:55:40 AM

QQQQ's and the SOX's short cycle indicators are looking bottomy in oversold territory. For QQQQ, a move back above 37.65 should be enough to generate the first bullish crosses. On the SOX, this level is roughly 432.5.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 10:54:29 AM

QQQQ option chain at this Link ... might get a late afternoon volatility spike to 16.50. If able, watch noted options for put selling at bid, call buying at offer.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 10:53:47 AM

The dollar is just zooming against the yen.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 10:53:09 AM

Those of us who profess to be confused about market direction are not unable to read charts. In fact, what we're reading in the charts is that confusion exists among investors. That's what produces these competing chart formations. Learning to trade means learning to recognize times like these and either not trade, or decrease position size if you do.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 10:49:36 AM

The SOX's daily chart pattern over the last couple of weeks is just a mess. It could be a "p" accumulation pattern. It could be a wide bull flag trying to form. It could be the same kind of hard-to-define thing that formed in February before the SOX dropped through the descending regression channel again. It's testing about the same type of resistance (regression channel, etc.). Daily MACD looks about like it did then, with some bearish divergence if the MACD rolls down now. There's just that bump above the 200-week sma that argues against any bearish conclusion. However, that's a move that's being challenged this week with that average now at 426.24 and the SOX currently at 431.12. Bulls do not want to see the SOX close the week below that.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 10:48:31 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle is in a downphase, 60 min trailing slightly behind with channel support down to 37.50 and falling. These cycles will maintain a bearish bias below 37.82, the current location of the 72 SMA: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 10:43:18 AM

The OEX is trying to pull up ahead of yesterday's late-day swing low, fitting in with the potential H&S scenario that I mentioned earlier. It if bounces, bulls want it back above the day's high to invalidate that formation. Bears want to see it round down again somewhere at or below 567.80.

Tab Gilles : 6/10/2005 10:42:19 AM

Jeff, nice observation on QQQQ option chain! (6/10/2005 10:26:27 AM)

Daily QQQQ chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 10:40:34 AM

Seeing multiple news bites that oil/gas producers in Gulf of Mexico evacuating nonessential personel, but no plans to shut down production of platforms.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 10:39:49 AM

July crude oil down 15 cents at 54.125, a quiet day there. Session high for Aug. gold at 426.90, +.90 but still well below the 428-429 confluence that has held back recent attempts. TNX is down to a 4.3 bp gain at 4.008%, bonds recovering off their low.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 10:37:15 AM

SOX.X 430.61 -1.79% ... mid-point of yesterday's range. DAILY S1 here.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 10:35:46 AM

SOX plummeting.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 10:34:43 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 10:32:24 AM

Big drop on the SOX.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 10:32:04 AM

The OEX is dropping right toward yesterday's 2:30 swing low of 565.14.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 10:30:53 AM

Ten year note yields found resistance at 4.02%, the 21 day EMA and also confluence going back to the end of May. Currently, TNX is up 5.1 bps at 4.016%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 10:29:46 AM

euro bidding 1.2138 -0.73% $/yen bidding 108.18 +0.69%

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 10:29:02 AM

Keltner channels suggest that as long as the OEX is closing 15-minute periods below the line currently at 566.85, it's vulnerable to 564 or so and perhaps lower. However, does anyone else see a potential H&S forming on the 15-minute chart, beginning late Wednesday? If so, the OEX might come down to 565.40 or so and then bounce into a right shoulder before final decision is decided. This is pure guesswork, however, and that potential regular H&S has competition in the inverse H&S also visible. When you can see competing bullish and bearish formations on the same chart, you know that bulls and bears have not yet settled their battle, and it's dangerous for you to be forming firm opinions about final direction.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 10:22:58 AM

Volume breadth is negative but not overwhelmingly so, 1.41:1 on the NYSE and 2.01:1 on the Nasdaq with the TRIN 1.23 and the TRINQ 1.42. QQQQ approached yesterday's low, stopping 6 cents above 37.50. That will be the key level for bulls and bears here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 10:26:27 AM

Yesterday's QQQQ option chain with Wednesday's Open Interest found at this Link .... Analysis: I would look as if Jun. $38 Call interest is high and long/short that option we don't know for certain, but I'm thinking it provides somewhat of a lid into Friday, where at most, QQQQ trades $38.25. Jun. $37 put also higher OI and floor. To get long, I'm thinking bull wants/needs something near $37.25 to then trade a bounce higher back toward $38. Short probably needed to be short yesterday, or very early this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 10:20:51 AM

VXN.X 15.81 +3.53% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 14.65, 14.94, Piv= 15.48, 15.77, 16.31.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 10:19:44 AM

VIX.X 12.16 +0.66% ... DAILY Pivot Levls ... 11.39, 11.73, Piv= 12.40, 12.74, 13.41.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 10:16:19 AM

The OEX is slipping below the mid-channel level level, but just barely, and you know what I'm going to say about trusting mid-channel S/R right now. Probably more important is the 567-ish S/R level, and that's being tested now.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 10:15:45 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 10:14:20 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 10:11:17 AM

The RLX isn't moving much this morning. The BIX isn't, iether, but is finding resistance at its 30-sma. It's got 200-ema and 100-sma support below, from 359-360.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 10:07:58 AM

TNX is up 5.2 bps to 4.017%, clearing 4.0% resistance. Daily chart at Link

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 10:05:14 AM

TRAN bouncing now, but still moving up within its possible bear flag. A 38.2% retracement of this week's dive is at about 3563.30 with the TRAN now at 3529.35.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 10:02:15 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 10:02:07 AM

And there goes the OEX's morning breakout. It's coming back to test mid-channel support, but as I said earlier, when Keltner channels settle into an equilibrium position, these support and resistance levels aren't as trustworthy as they might otherwise be. The OEX is still close enough that it could be just retesting one version of a H&S neckline. Lots of ways to interpret the action today.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 10:01:22 AM

QQQQ has now plunged through the 30 and 60 min channel bottoms, and generally this is where the short cycle bulls would assert themselves. If they don't during the coming minutes, it indicates short cycle trending pressure beneath the longer intraday and daily cycles- less likely but very bearish if it occurs. Note that the 30 and 60 min cycles were in upphases at the close yesterday, and are now turning as price holds below the 72 SMA. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 9:59:27 AM

The Fed has announced a 3.25B overnight repo against 7.5B expiring, for a net drain of 4.25B today.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 9:50:50 AM

OEX still testing 568 resistance, with next resistance above that at 568.86.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 9:50:05 AM

SOX dropping below the desired Keltner support and the trendline it popped above yesterday near the close, but the 15-minute period hasn't ended yet. Still, this isn't what bulls want to see.

Jeff Bailey : 6/10/2005 9:48:46 AM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.64 and set for program selling at $+4.23.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 9:47:23 AM

The SOX is consolidating above/at that descending trendline off last week's high. It's also consolidating above/at Keltner support from 436.35-437.08. Bulls want this to hold on 15-minute closes, although it looks in danger of dropping below this now. Upside target of 441.86 if it can hold this support.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 9:47:09 AM

Predictably, volume breadth is mixed, advancing volume leading 1.65:1 on the NYSE and lagging 1.32:1 on the Nasdaq. The TRIN is at .98, the high end of neutral, while the TRINQ is up at 1.37.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 9:42:20 AM

Depending on how you draw the neckline--descending or horizontal--the OEX may be inching over/testing the neckline of an inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart. The Keltner chart gives a next resistance level of 568.79 above this one, but the channels have settled into an equilibrium position and their evidence just can't be trusted as much as they usually can. What looks like support or resistance just might not be.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 9:41:35 AM

Session low for 10-yr bonds, TNX up 2.9 bps to 3.994%. 4.0% has been firm resistance since the break below it.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 9:39:24 AM

QQQQ tests 60 min channel support now, still printing below the 30 min channel bottom. The short cycle indicators are resolving their chop to the downside, but remain muddled.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 9:37:18 AM

TRAN headed lower, but doing so within a possible bear flag, still maintaining the flag's support.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 9:36:28 AM

Late yesterday, the RUT looked as if it had broken above the neckline of a large inverse H&S, but we have the same question to ask ourselves about the RUT as we did about the SOX. Did it just overrun resistance yesterday at the close? On a Keltner basis, bulls would like to see the RUT hold 625.03 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 9:34:39 AM

SOX dropping back to the descending trendline off the 6/03 high, at about 436.80 and with the SOX at 437.25. Was the breakout late yesterday just an overrunning of resistance, as the SOX is certainly capable of doing, or is this morning's action just a normal easing back to retest broken resistance ot see if it holds as support? We'll have to wait to find out.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 9:32:21 AM

QQQQ is testing 30 min channel support here at a low of 37.83, breaking below 72 SMA support at 37.90. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 9:32:33 AM

The OEX attempts to move higher from mid-channel support on the 15-minute chart, but is still within yesterday's coiling, triangle-ish (it's messy) formation from late yesterday.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 9:25:35 AM

The US Dollar Index popped on the Trade Balance data, but has yet to break yesterday's high. Link Gold is holding a 70 cent loss at 425.20, silver -.006 at 7.261.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 9:08:04 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle oscillator is showing a downtick below overbought territory, while the 60 min indicators continue to point north at the midpoint. Price continues to hold within yesterday afternoon's range, with the short cycle indicators perfectly mixed and directionless. The daily cycle downphase continues. Current channel support is at 37.75 for the 60 min cycle, 37.81 for the 30 min. Resistance is at 38.05 and 38.10 for the 30 and 60 min cycles respectively.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 8:48:19 AM

Well, here we are again with the OEX inside a broadening formation with daily candles that form between 566-570 but with candle shadows that shoot deeper below and higher above that consolidation zone, broadening the formation. Those who buy the breakouts have had reason to regret doing so. As long as the OEX is within that broadening formation, it's just plain impossible to know which way it will break, and when it does break, it's nearly impossible to know whether the break is real or not, either. That's just the nature of such formations. If the OEX breaks to the downside, it's likely to find support at 558-561, the location of important Fib levels and moving averages, at least on first test. If it breaks to the upside . . . well, it's somewhat difficult to define where an upside breakout would be in the first place. A 15-minute close above 568.75 suggests an upside target of 572.19, with the daily chart suggesting that 577 might not be impossible on an upside breakout that's maintained. That's the rub, though. When will one of these breakouts be maintained.

If you look at the daily bar chart using traditional studies such as drawing the trendlines of the OEX's broadening formation, you soon note that over the last few days, the OEX has not again been able to punch up toward the top of that formation. Any pushes higher are either stopped at the 567-568 level, as yesterday's was, or they're immediately pushed back, leaving bearish-looking candles. There's a rounding-over shape, a bearish shallow upside-down saucer shape, to the OEX's trading pattern through May. The whole impression is one of growing weakness, echoed by the tentative bearish kiss on the MACD. But hold on. That kiss is from above the zero line, though, so not as strong as it might otherwise be and when you look at a daily Keltner chart, the picture doesn't look quite as bearish. On Thursday, the OEX punched down to central channel support on that Keltner channel chart and for the first time this week, closed above a Keltner line currently at 566.31. That provided some slight hope that the OEX could move up toward next daily resistance at 572 or even above that to 577. However the daily chart is settling into an equilibrium position, and when that happens central channel support and resistance can't be trusted as much as it might otherwise be.

If I sound confused about next market direction, that's because I am. So are a lot of people. That's exactly why formations such as broadening formations set up. Some market participants are sure the markets are going one direction, some, another, and some are just confused. Trade carefully. Watch the SOX, of course, this morning, as market bulls want to see yesterday's breakout maintained. Watch the Russell 2000, too, as it's broken above a QCharts-drawn descending regression channel off the swing high from late last year, but coils just beneath the hand-drawn actual trendline off that high, at about 635.50 currently. Watch the TRAN, having dropped all the way from the top of the bottom of its broad rising regression channel in less than three days, but having ended the day yesterday back below its 200-sma and ready to test it again. I actually think the 100-sma has been more important to the TRAN's performance all this year, and that's at 3610.05, so pretty far ahead. A breakdown out of that channel would occur at about 3479. The RLX and BIX bear watching, too, if you're trading the OEX.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 8:41:09 AM

Ten year bonds are slightly weaker, TNX now up 1.8 bps at 3.983% and QQQQ holding its previous level, currently -.03 at 37.92.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 8:32:55 AM

Import prices ex-oil -.3%, prior +.4%

Export prices ex-ag -.4%, prior +.5%

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 8:31:28 AM

Trade balance -57B vs. -58B exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 8:33:14 AM

Headlines:

U.S. MAY EXPORT PRICES FALL 0.1%

U.S. MAY EX-AG EXPORT PRICES FALL 0.4%

U.S. MAY IMPORTED OIL PRICES FALL 6.5%

U.S. MAY CHINA IMPORT PRICES UP 0.1%

U.S. APRIL TRADE GAP WIDENS 6.3% TO $57.0 BLN

U.S. APRIL TRADE GAP IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS FORECAST

U.S. MARCH TRADE GAP REV $53.6 BLN VS $55.0 BLN PREV

U.S. APRIL TRADE GAP WITH CHINA $14.7 BLN

U.S. APRIL EXPORTS UP 3.0% TO RECORD $106.4 BLN

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 8:29:21 AM

Ten year notes are holding light losses, TNX up 1.4 bps at 3.979%, still within yesterday's range. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/10/2005 7:35:48 AM

Equities are up, ES (June contract) trading 1202.5, NQ 1539 and YM 10521, with QQQQ down .01 to 37.93. Gold is down .30 to 425.60, silver +.013 to 7.28, Sept. ZN bonds -1/16 to 113 1/2 and July crude is down .025 to 54.25.

We await the 8:30 release of export prices ex-ag., prior 0.5%, and import prices ex-oil, prior .4%, as well as the Trade Balance for April, est. -58B. At 2PM, we get the Treasury Budget for May, est. -45B.

Linda Piazza : 6/10/2005 7:12:40 AM

Good morning. This morning, the OECD's composite leading economic indicator for April was released, showing a decline from March's 103.4 to 103.1. This is the lowest number in a year with the declines showing up in all regions. The U.S. number dropped from 102.1 to 101.5. One article interpreted this number as showing that both activity and demand may have peaked and the global economy may be slowing.

The Nikkei zoomed up in early trading and then coiled the rest of the day, closing higher. Most other Asian bourses climbed, too, with China's the exception. European markets rise this morning. Both in Asia and Europe, semi-related stocks have performed well. Our futures are positive, although modestly so. As of 6:48 EST, gold was down $0.90, and crude, down $19.00 to $54.09, still remaining above $54.00. This morning, the IEA raised its estimate for 2005's demand for crude by 30 KB/day while lowering its second quarter forecast and raising that for the third and fourth quarters. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei soared Friday morning, climbing straight up to 11,300 to test Wednesday's high, reached before Thursday's sharp sell-off. Sounds familiar to us watching U.S. indices, doesn't it, this zooming one direction and zooming another? The Nikkei coiled above 11,300 the rest of the day and closed up 143.35 points or 1.28%, at 11,304.23. Semi-related stocks such as Hynix Semiconductor benefited from Intel's update. Exporters benefited from Greenspan's reassurances about inflation and the reasons behind continued low long-term rates. Retailers saw strong gains. The Nikkei's climb occurred despite the release of April's manufacturer's input/output price indices, with that release showing input prices rising 3.1% month over month and output prices rising 1.2% month over month. The trade condition index fell as a result, down 1.7% month over month.

Most other Asian markets climbed, too. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.76%. This morning, the central bank says that its foreign reserves have been diversified. South Korea's Samsung announced a share buy-back plan. The Kospi gained 0.33%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.99%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.26%, but China's Shanghai Composite dropped 2.01%. This morning, the EU trade commissioner warned China to take steps to cut back on its textile exports by Saturday or the EU would impose restrictions. May's industrial ex-factory prices rose 5.9% over the year-ago level.

European markets are all positive, with semi-related issues climbing. Oil-related issues benefited from crude's move above $54.00. Last night, German Chancellor Schroeder confirmed that the vote of confidence will be set for July 1, with a national election to be held September 18 if the government loses. The ECB's Trichet said that the euro has been successful, while acknowledging that the eurozone's growth had trailed behind the U.S.'s since the euro's introduction. This morning, the eurozone's March current account surplus was smaller than expected, and Germany's DIW Institute cut its Q2 GDP forecast for Germany in half. Germany's May whole prices index (WPI) dropped 1% month over month and the yearly rate was adjusted to 1.7% from April's 3.2%, but this release has been somewhat discounted because of the volatility of wholesale prices and because May's CPI has already been released. France's industrial output excluding construction for April fell 0.3% month over month, the third month in a row of declining figures. The French figures aren't all bad, however, as March's was revised higher, manufacturing output rose 0.5%, and the industrial capital goods component rose 0.6%. Still, output might continue to negatively impact economic growth in the second half of the year.

In stock-specific news, Deutsche Bank downgraded Siemens to a hold rating. The firm upgraded French engineering group Alstrom. Luxury goods retailers and manufacturers also saw various upgrades.

As of 6:58 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 33.30 points or 0.66%, to 5,042.50. The CAC 40 had climbed 35.97 points or 0.87%, to 4,189.68. The DAX had risen 29.64 points or 0.65%, to 4,592.39.

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