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OI Technical Staff : 6/13/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 7:13:25 PM

Not Guilty! ... Pop star Michael Jackson found not guilty on all 10 counts regarding accusation of molesting 13-year-old boy and luring him with wine. Sony (SNE) $35.68 -0.47% ... co-owner with Michael Jackson in the Jackson and Beatle's music catalog with "portfolio" valued at $500 million, with Beatles songs accounting for roughly 66% of that. It had been speculated the Mr. Jackson might be forced to liquidate the holdings (and still might have to) if found guilty of the charges.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 6:22:37 PM

QQQQ June OI as of Friday's close at this Link ... not much change in my mind's thought of QQQQ capped at $38 strike. Risk in 38 Puts and $37 Calls just about leveled out now.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 6:04:02 PM

SPY June & July OI as of Friday's close at this Link ... As of tonight's close, it would be the Jun $120 Calls that the options market maker would most likely go after.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 5:42:24 PM

SPY Most Active Options at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 5:09:52 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Swing trade stopped on the one (1) United Parcel Service Oct. $75 Call (UPS-JO) at the bid of $1.40. ($-2.30, or -62.16%). Swing trade long the underlying shares of Wells Fargo (WFC) at the offer of $61.10, stop at $60.60, targeting $62.77.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 5:24:11 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... July Heating Oil (cl05h) settled up $0.056, or 3.47% at $1.6631 on Monday and tests contract highs. July Crude Oil (cl05n) settled up $2.08, or 3.88% at $55.62. July Unleaded (cl05u) settled up $0.0106, or 0.69% at $1.5542.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 4:39:33 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... Today's closing reading for the NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio would show a 3-box reversal to 84% from recent relative high reading of 90%. NASDAQ's 5-day NH/NL reading would reverse if 66% were found on a closing basis.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 4:22:26 PM

Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 3:58:44 PM

Earlier today, I had posted a 30-minute Keltner chart, showing that throughout June, the OEX had mostly been contained within a black channel and was then testing the upper channel boundary. The OEX turned down form that boundary and now is at the mid-channel level.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 3:57:23 PM

Just rushed home in time for the close, to see that the OEX once again punched up to 570, but will close below it. It's still inside the broadening formation, candles forming between 564.60 (but mostly above 566) and below 570. No breakout.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 3:56:49 PM

The intraday cycle juxtaposition continues, with QQQQ's 30 min cycle in a downphase opposted to the ongoing 60 min cycle upphase. The 30 min cycle downphase is so far weak, as is the 60 min upphase, and worse yet, there's little indication of an impending resolution so long as price holds the current range. A move below 37.60 or above 37.95 would resolve the chop, but price so far seems quite comfortable within that 35 cent channel.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 3:41:16 PM

We've gone nowhere today with buy/sell program premiums at roughly buy=7 and sell = 0.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 3:38:59 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,200.27 , DIA $105.29, QQQQ $37.73

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 3:25:31 PM

There's light volume today, with combined Nasdaq and NYSE volume looking to come in below 2.5B shares and QQQQ currently at 75M compared with Friday's 86M share volume and the average of 92.5M.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 3:18:54 PM

Nasdaq volume breadth is down to 1.14:1 for advancing volume, NYSE advancing volume leading by 1.29:1.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 3:17:34 PM

QQQQ's retesting the prior low here, now at 60 min channel support: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 3:15:44 PM

The SOX is showing preliminary short cycle buy signals with a slight bullish wavelet divergence (2nd oscillator pane), but price continues to hold below the 72 SMA and price is well within today's range. A move above 430.80-431 should see some followthrough: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 3:13:04 PM

iShare Russell 2000 Index (IWM) $62.45 (unch) ... trading post-split 2:1 today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 3:11:43 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 3:05:54 PM

QQQQ is pulling back as a wavelet upphase peaks within the bottomy short cycle. Bears need to take out the previous low at 37.64 in order to avoid what looks like an imminent short cycle upphase, while the bulls need to clear 37.80 (the 72 SMA resistance line) in order to confirm it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 3:02:57 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link ... I believe BIX.X quote incorrect. Hasn't changed from 360.95 (even a fraction) since 02:05 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 2:55:24 PM

iShare S&P Mid Cap 400 (AMEX:IJH) $68.22 +0.10% ... trading post-split 2:1 today.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 2:48:31 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 2:41:11 PM

July crude oil closed +2.075 at 55.625, off a high of 55.775 and +3.87% for the day. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 2:38:32 PM

SPY ... most active options at this Link ... since last update we've seen more action come into the Jun. $120 put and $121 Call. VIX.X has edged higher to 11.62 from 11.50. Not much, but may suggest some put buying, out-money call selling.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 2:30:58 PM

QQQQ is retesting 37.70 support here. If it fails, next confluence and channel support lines up with the broken descending trendline at 37.60-.62: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 2:23:58 PM

September Crude Oil (cl05u) $57.25 +3.15% (30-min delayed) ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 2:19:24 PM

Main reason I think traders are focused on yield curve here is late last week's action in gold/dollar and Treasury YIELD. In my opinion, GOLD should have gotten CRUSHED! It didn't. ONLY explanation I could come up with is that bond market was going to see some "re-steepening" in the yield curve. At approx. 02:00 PM EDT I noted 5-year yield up slightly more than 10-year and buyers were coming back into 10-year. What just happened was in order to get curve to steeping, buyers came into shorter-dated 5-year, thus yield dropped and some re-steepening intra-day.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 2:16:18 PM

Crude oil continues to rocket higher, July crude now +1.95 at a high of 55.50, +3.64%. The USD Index is down off its highs, but still up from last night. Gold and oil are despite the rise in the dollar.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 2:13:25 PM

SPX 1,202.86 +0.39% now.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 2:13:02 PM

Yield curve ... 5-year up 1.4 bp, 10-year up 2.4 bp, 30-year up 5.6 bp.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 2:11:48 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 2:10:35 PM

Nasdaq's volume breadth has deteriorated to 1.45:1 in favor of advancing volume, with price so far holding 37.70 support and bouncing to test 37.80 from below. So far, this decline off the highs is mostly sideways, obviously corrective compared with the bounce which preceded it. Bears will need a break of 37.60 support to reverse the ongoing 60 min cycle upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 2:08:46 PM

Buy Program Premium SPX 1,203.02, DIA $105.56, QQQQ $37.79 +0.63%

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 2:04:30 PM

See that bid for PHF (2,000 at $9.26)? 5-year up 1.2, 10-year up 2.1, 30-year up 5.4. Playing the curve it looks like.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 2:02:27 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 1:56:48 PM

QQQQ breaking the previous low below the 72 SMA support line: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 1:53:26 PM

Yield Curve ... 5-year up 2.7 bp, 10-year up 2.2 bp, 30-year up 5.7 bp.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 1:48:34 PM

Still new highs for July crude, +1.4 at 54.95, +2.61%. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 1:39:54 PM

QQQQ update at this Link with price holding in its narrow "flagpole" range. Despite a few tests during the past hour, price continues to hold above 72 SMA support. The 30 min cycle has yet to roll over.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 1:31:13 PM

Session high for crude oil, +1.025 at 54.575.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 1:21:10 PM

Northwest Airlines (NWAC) $5.62 -11.21% ... off morning lows of $5.08 after Wall Street Journal reported that nation's fourth-largest airline is set to file for bankruptcy.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2005 1:18:58 PM

Dateline WSJ Support for Iraq Involvement at All-Time Low Amid persistent mayhem and political uncertainty in Iraq, U.S. public support for continued involvement in the war has fallen to its lowest level since its beginning in 2003, according to a Gallup poll.

Some 59% of Americans want some or all U.S. troops to be withdrawn from Iraq, the survey said, compared with 36% who want troop levels to stay the same or increase. Some 56% of Americans now say the war was "not worth it," near the all-time high of 57% set last month. Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll, called the numbers "reminiscent of Vietnam" -- another conflict that bred opposition as the years and casualties mounted.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 1:17:10 PM

European banking merger ... Italy's UniCredito buying Germany's HVB for $18.8 billion in Europes biggest cross-border banking deal, which will create a lender with branches across a large swath of Western Europe and former Soviet-bloc nations.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 1:12:04 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 1:09:10 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle oscillators have stopped just short of overbought territory and have now stalled, awaiting a break below 37.77 to kick off a new 30 min cycle downphase. However, the 60 min cycle upphase is in its early stages, approaching the midpoint of its range, and could act to hold the price rangebound potentially for hours. The short cycle indicators are now mixed in the wake of their tractionless downphase- overall, a choppy, directionless mess within the ongoing daily cycle downphase.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 1:06:00 PM

The 13-week bills had a high yield of 2.975%, and a bid to cover ratio of 2.16. The 26 week bills generated a high rate of 3.12%, which received 57% of the awards, with a total bid to cover ratio of 2.16. Foreign central banks took 4.78B of the 13-week bills and 3.88B of the 26 week bills, or 8.6B of the 32B auctioned today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 1:05:09 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 12:56:31 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.31 -0.74% ... down 7 cents. Those long should see their $0.075 per share monthly dividend having been paid on Friday.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 12:54:40 PM

Signing off for the day now.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 12:50:57 PM

10 Most Actives ... QQQQ $37.81 +0.69%, INTC $26.99 +0.03%, SPY $120.78 +0.48%, SUNW $3.64 -1.35%, SIRI $5.96 +5.48%, MSFT $25.40 -0.11%, CSCO $19.28 +0.20%, MWD $51.00 +2.24%, ORCL $12.72 +0.63%, NT $2.59 +0.38%

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 12:50:06 PM

I'm getting ready to leave in a few minutes, and had hoped to see some clarity before I did. Unfortunately, that's not happening. We know that the OEX is pausing beneath known 570-ish resistance (on daily closes). We know that it touched the top of a 30-minute Keltner channel that usually contains over the last couple of weeks, with a few hours breaches now and then. That's about all we know for sure. Those who believe in hitting known resistance with a put play will likely have already done so, but unfortunately, no strong evidence exists just yet that such a play would be successful. The OEX's pullback could still be a bull flag.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 12:45:05 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) $51.18 -0.77% ... restores production from 2 offshore platforms in Gulf of Mexico after storm. The two platforms produce 62,000 barrels of oil per day and 66 million cubic feet of natural gas per day.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 12:43:08 PM

Credit ... HSBC buys Neiman Marcus credit card portfolio for $527 million plus liabilities.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 12:36:25 PM

OEX bears need to see the OEX producing 15-minute closes below 568.26 and then 566.56. OEX bulls need to see 568.26 maintained on 15-minute closes, but the OEX struggles with resistance offered by a 30-minute channel that has contained it the last couple of weeks.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 12:29:19 PM

Volume breadth is a little weaker but still comfortably positive, advancing shares leading 2.49:1 on the NYSE and 1.98:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ has yet to break free of first support at 37.80 despite the short cycle downphase currently in progress.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 12:26:55 PM

The OEX tests Keltner support at 568.11. There's slight resistance now from 568.78-569.09.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 12:25:00 PM

SPX Option Chain sorted by most active at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 12:20:01 PM

SPY ... Option Chain sorted by most active at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 12:20:18 PM

Session high for gold at 432.10 and silver at 7.315, with crude oil +.475 at 54.025. QQQQ is testing 37.80 here, with bonds recovering, TNX down to a 2.8 bp gain at 4.075%. The Treasury is auctioning 32B in 13 week and 26 week bills, the results of which will be released at 1PM.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 12:18:42 PM

The SOX just zooms either side of 431.50 or so, then comes back to test it.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 12:15:11 PM

The RLX has a potential H&S at the top of its climb off the April low, visible on the 60-minute chart. The neckline is at about 436.50, but there's further Keltner support near 435.65.

Tab Gilles : 6/13/2005 12:12:53 PM

$GOX, $XAU, PDG & NEM nice moves up today. Link Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 12:12:22 PM

RUT not making any progress after again confirming an inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart. Coming right back to retest the neckline, perhaps at about 627.50.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 12:10:33 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 12:10:27 PM

QQQQQ is pulling back again, but so far respecting, breaking the prior low and testing R1 as I type. The short cycle channel is rolling over, so far with very little vigor, but a break below 37.80 could give it a boost. 72 SMA support has risen to 37.70, the first goal for intraday bears: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 12:09:56 PM

SOX dropping.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 12:07:33 PM

OEX bulls want to see the OEX continue 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 568.70, although further Keltner support now exists at 568.08.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 12:02:30 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 6/13/2005 12:05:28 PM


EVV daily set stop at 10-ema. Link

EVV Weekly- Link

Friday I presented my view that the $USB was setting up a double top and I was also looking at the TLT i-share and possible put positions.

TLT puts Sept 95 TLTUQ Link Link

Jan 95 YLIMQ Link Link

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 12:00:16 PM

The OEX pulls back, but does so in a formation that looks a bit like a bull flag. Bulls want to see 568.65 hold on 15-minute closes. Keltner support is zooming up, trying to catch up.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 11:49:36 AM

Here's a look at the OEX's 30-minute Keltner channels, with the black channel being the one that's been containing the OEX throughout June, with a few-hours exception here and there: Link That shows the resistance that the OEX currently faces. An upside breakout remains possible, of course.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 11:43:56 AM

Stepping away for 15 minutes here.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 11:43:20 AM

Price has stopped dead at the top of the current range, classic "flagpole" action if price holds up here for a few more hours. This being op-ex week, I'm inclined to be skeptical of any sudden move. Volume is declining as the short cycle indicators begin to roll over in overbought territory, but bears need a break below the 72 SMA at 37.63 to stop the 30 min cycle upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 11:41:04 AM

United Parcel Service (UPS) $70.57 -0.54% ... for those LONG option traders that don't use hard stops, I would look to EXIT calls on a possible pop in the stock should news break regarding pilot's union talks.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 11:36:26 AM

The SOX has also recenty been contained within a 30-minute Keltner channel with boundaries currently at 437.06 and 426.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 11:34:12 AM

Volume breadth is easing back within strong positive territory, advancing shares now leading declining 3.19:1 on the NYSE and 2.51:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 11:30:26 AM

The OEX is stalling just beneath 570, known historical resistance over the last couple of weeks. A close today above 570 would be a change in tenor, but, intraday, we've seen lots of spikes above 570. On a 30-minute Keltner chart, the OEX appears to be reaching the top of its likely climb today, as it's touched a 30-minute channel that has contained it except for few-hour breaches all through June. Keltners were developed to identify breakouts, so the possibility of a breakout always exists, but that chart suggests that 570-572 might be the top of the range today without such a breakout.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 11:29:37 AM

July crude oil +.425 at 53.975 here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 11:27:49 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 11:25:05 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert for the one (1) United Parcel Service UPS Oct. $75 Call (UPS-JO) at the bid of $1.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 11:24:23 AM

The current move is similar to Thursday's, when QQQQ made a lower low followed by a higher high just past noon, following which a choppy drift lower followed. That was a "key reversal" day to the upside, generally a very bullish print, but we know what happened Friday. So far, those Thursday highs are being tested but not broken, as the short cycle indicators reach the top of their range.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 11:19:23 AM

The RUT is rising to test 6/07 high of 630.92, with the descending trendline off the 12/31 high at about 635.14, and with the RUT currently at 629.71. Lots of resistance just ahead. The RUT has broken above a QCharts-drawn descending regression channel off that December high and spent last week retesting the top trendline of that channel.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 11:16:55 AM

13-week Treasury Yield ($IRX.X) Link up 0.5 bp at 2.942%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 11:13:39 AM

Treasury ... to sell $8.0 billion in 4-week bills on Tuesday. funds to be used to pay down $4.0 billion of Federal debt.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 11:12:49 AM

The SOX is up to the 434 level, a short cycle upphase approaching overbought territory but not yet there. Daily R1 is at 435.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 11:11:12 AM

The OEX may not need to maintain that 15-minute close above a Keltner line currently at 568.15 to reach that upside target of 571.91--it may reach it before the 15-minute close and I'm half serious. Be very careful, though, as it's leaving Keltner support far behind. Typical reactions after doing so are a steadying at the top of a range while Keltner support catches up or then a quick reversal. Think that can't happen? Look at the Nikkei's early morning action last night and then subsequent reaction: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 11:10:45 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 11:09:35 AM

SPY $121.00 +0.67% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 11:09:12 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 362.16 +0.39% ... above WEEKLY Pivot here.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 11:08:33 AM

Session low for ten year notes at 112 41/64, with TNX up 4.2 bps at 4.089%. Oil is down to a .65 gain at 54.20, off a high of 54.525. Session highs across the board for the equity indices as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 11:06:29 AM

QQQQ is back to testing Thursday's high range from 37.85-38.05. While the 30 min and 60 min cycle indicators point up, the daily cycle downphase suggests that the upper range should provide stiff resistance. So far, volume is strongly positive, but the intraday move in price remains counter to the broader daily cycle.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 11:02:48 AM

OEX popping above the Keltner line currently at 568.17 and the Friday morning high. Bulls want to see this breakout maintained, at least into the currrent 15-minute period's close, for an upside target of 571.74. I have to say, though, that the OEX is leaving other Keltner support (than this nearby support) far, far behind, however, so reversals can be quick if they occur. They don't always under these conditions, but the OEX is moving into levels that it was difficult for it to maintain the latter part of last week.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 11:02:19 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 10:58:11 AM

I'll be leaving for the day in a couple of hours, and hopefully, we'll have more clarity before then. Until then, watch the RUT in particular, as it's once again confirmed an inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart, moving high enough this morning that, without a quick reversal, it's going to invalidate the potential H&S formation on its 60-minute chart. That formation looks lop-sided enough now that it no longer resembles a H&S with a descending neckline, but if the RUT were to reverse quickly and leave only a candle shadow there (stranger things have happened), then the formation could be reconsidered. We've had competing formations on this index, and the bulls may be winning temporarily, but be careful, particularly with Jim's warning Friday about typical RUT behavior after a rebalancing. I think I heard on CNBC this morning that the RUT rebalancing resulted in fewer shifts this time, though, so maybe the typical RUT reaction (declines the next week) won't happen.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 10:53:59 AM

5-day view of QQQQ at this Link , the move above 37.72 violating descending resistance in place for the past week.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 10:52:49 AM

The OEX faces Keltner resistance and Friday's high. A 15-minute close above a Keltner line currently at 568.09 suggests an upside target of 571.73, but that's moving through a zone that saw quick reversals last week, so be careful.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 10:52:49 AM

S&P Dep. Receipts (SPY) with updated WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 10:51:47 AM

SOX climbing within its recent consolidation zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 10:48:39 AM

QQQQ update at this Link with price still holding above upper 30 min channel resistance. Volume breadth is 2.52:1 in favor of advancing Nasdaq shares.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 10:46:36 AM

Nothing I've been able to find, Marc.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 10:45:17 AM

The OEX currently tests that descending trendline off the 6/07 high, and may be inching just above it. Keltner resistance just below 568 and Friday's high was 568.27, so right after breaking out, if the OEX does that, it faces resistance again.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 10:41:27 AM

Session low for 10 year notes with TNX up 4.3 bps to 4.09%. QQQQ is holding above the 30 min channel top, either the start of a trending move or the peak in this wavelet bounce- we'll find out during the next 5 or so minutes. 1st support is now 37.70.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 10:40:18 AM

The OEX pushes up to test the 567.12-ish level that represents the descending trendline off the 6/07 noon-ish high. Hasn't touched it yet. If it does breach that, remember 567.90 Keltner resistance just ahead. You'll want to see a quick move above the early Friday morning high.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 10:36:52 AM

S&P Dep. Receipts (SPY) 120.32 +0.09% ... first test of WEEKLY Pivot here. Bull's scenario gets second test here (late Friday bounce was test #1).

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 10:36:17 AM

As could be expected, volume breadth is now solidly positive, advancing shares leading declining 1.61:1 on the NYSE and 2.31:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 10:34:40 AM

So much for the Keltner evidence about the resistance being stronger than the support, except that evidence did show resistance up to a line currently at 566.38. With the Keltner channels showing an equilibrium position, it's perhaps a mistake to trust that evidence too strongly, and with the OEX coiling within a broadening formation, it's definitely a mistake to trust anything too much.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 10:33:15 AM

Swing trade long alert ... for shares of Wells Fargo (WFC) $61.15 here, stop $60.60, target $62.77.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 10:31:59 AM

QQQQ breaks upper descending intraday resistance here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 10:31:19 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,197.25, DIA $105.03, QQQQ $37.65

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 10:29:59 AM

The OEX is within a narrowing triangle--perhaps--that's within a broadening formation. Careful. As Keene said, cash is okay today, too.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 10:27:04 AM

The TRAN bounced from the 3500 level again this morning, with that also representing the 200-ema (3495.50) and the bottom of a rising regression channel begun in April.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 10:24:33 AM

Oil ... Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi says that the kingdom is ready to increase its oil output by 10 million barrels per day if demand warrants such a move.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 10:22:26 AM

Dow 30 Components found at this Link ... sorted by PRICE as this is a price-weighted index.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 10:21:41 AM

Crude oil is up .70 at 54.25, a session high.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 10:22:12 AM

Still no update from the Fed, the announcement now 25 minutes late. I've just called to find out the status of the day's open market operations at 212-720-6130, where I was informed that 4.25B has been added in overnights, for a net add in that amount.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 10:19:39 AM

Is this a valid triangle shape to watch on the OEX? Link If so, I would want to see a quick confirmation of a downside break by a break below Friday's low. Keltner evidence says that a 15-minute close below a line currently at 563.37 would produce a downside target just under 561. I would want to see an upside break confirmed by a move above the Friday morning high, with Keltner evidence suggesting that a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 567.72 would set a target of 571.49. That move, in particular, would be a move further up into the broadening formation. Neither would be a particularly safe play, I don't think, but it's at least something to watch and consider for those of you who just have to enter the market today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 10:18:47 AM

United Technologies (UTX) $52.57 +0.19% Link ... trades post-split (2:1). Moves from #1 most heavily weighted Dow component to #11.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 10:14:24 AM

QQQQ update at this Link with price holding the 72 SMA after dipping back below it. The short cycle indicators are chopping sideways at midrange, no clues there, while the 30 min cycle upphase falters and the 60 min cycle downphase stalls. So far, it looks like the perfect kickoff to op-ex week.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 10:14:24 AM

New LOD on the OEX, as it drops toward 564.20 support, with 563.33 being next support below that.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 10:13:40 AM

5 to 30-year Yield Curve Over the past 5-days the 5-year yield is up 13.7 bp, 10-year yield up 12.4 and 30-year up 11.5.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 10:11:01 AM

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 10:09:22 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link ... watch for a bid in banks as yield curve starts to see some re-steepening.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 10:10:32 AM

The OEX is rising to test that Keltner resistance again. Resistance still looking stronger than nearby support, but it's not so firm that I'd say it couldn't be breached. For now, it still looks more likely that the OEX would drop toward 563.40-564.50 than rise much above 566.23.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 10:02:39 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 10:02:37 AM

Volume breadth is no more conclusive than the price action, with declining volume leading 1.38:1 on the NYSE and advancing volume leading 1.3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 10:01:09 AM

Resistance still looks as if it's trying to firm above the OEX's current position. Down (but by how much?) looks slightly more likely than a bounce much above 566.20.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 10:00:16 AM

The Fed is keeping us in suspense, with no news yet on the day's open market operations. Friday's 6-day repo of 3.25B is still in play, and with no expiries today, any amount added will be a net add for the day.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 9:56:17 AM

So far today, the OEX maintains that rounding over appearance, a bearish upside-down-saucer look, on its daiy chart. So far, it also maintains the support of its 100-sma and 50% retracement of the March/April decline.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 9:54:43 AM

BIX below 360 and its important 100-sma, but still within "testing" range. TRAN dropping back toward its 200-ema. RLX lower this morning, but only slightly so. There's some weakness this morning, but not profound weakness yet, and bears need to drive prices lower.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 9:51:29 AM

VIX.X 12.09 +1.08% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.58, 11.74, Piv= 12.07, 12.23, 12.56

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 9:48:55 AM

OEX now dropping below the support that bulls need to see maintained and resistance looks as if it's strengthening near 565.60-566.40. The OEX may be vulnerable to the 563.40-563.30 level unless it can quickly bounce again.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 9:47:09 AM

QQQQ is pulling back above the 72 SMA, currently flat at 37.54 off a high of 37.63, as the SOX tests Friday's lows, its short cycle indicators rolling over. Support at Thursday's lows are 3 points below in the 426 area.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 9:44:05 AM

Ten year notes are bouncing off their earlier low at 112 21/32, with TNX currently down to a 2.8 bp gain at 4.075%, still above Friday's high.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 9:43:28 AM

The first 15-minute close may be above the Keltner lines currently from 565.39-565.62, but below the resistance from 566.27-566.48.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 9:37:01 AM

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 9:36:37 AM

RUT fairly steady so far this morning, too. Near Friday's close as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 9:36:26 AM

Gold has flipped back to positive, currently up 1.40 at 430.80 and off a high of 431.80, just off the 432-433 confluence resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 9:35:22 AM

Taser Intl. (TASR) $11.56 +6.8% ... higher after announcing it has received a 1.4 million order from the U.S. military.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 9:34:49 AM

The TRAN turned slightly lower through its likely bear flag (with a continuation-form H&S buried within that flag), but it hasn't violated the support of that bear flag.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 9:33:59 AM

QQQQ has blown out the the upper 30 min channel top, breaking Friday afternoon's high on the current surge to 37.61 with the short cycles turning up: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 9:33:55 AM

BIX turning down toward 360 again, at 360.10 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 9:33:23 AM

SOX steady so far. Dipped down to 430, but is trying to climb. Don't know how successful it will be. TSM gapped way down, almost to $9.00, but is jumping around a bit now as I type.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 9:31:47 AM

OEX dropping straight into that Keltner support I mentioned pre-market, from 565.34-565.81. Bulls want to see a first 15-minute close above this support.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 9:29:27 AM

Connetics Corp. (CNCT) $20.77 .... #2 on most active list and lower at $15.95 after the company said the FDA issued a nonapprovable letter for Velac Gel, an investigational new drug for the treatment of acne. Connetics said the only issue raised in the letter was a positive carcinogenicity signal that was detected in a mouse study. As a result of the FDA decision, the company now projects 2005 total revenue of $182-$188 million, down from its guidance of $195-$206 million. Earnings will likely be between $0.60-$0.70 per share versus prior guidance of $0.88-$0.92 per share.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2005 9:25:08 AM

Morgan Stanley (MWD) $49.88 ... Atop this morning's pre-market list of most actives and trading higher at $51.90 after Chief Executive Philip Purcell announced plans to retire. Mr. Purcell said he would retire as soon as a successor is named, but will retire no later than the firms annual meeting in March 2006. In addition, the broker said it expects to report a per share profit of about 15%-20% less than the $1.10 it reported a year earlier. This would equate to a profit of $0.88-$0.94 cents per share.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 9:15:37 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle upphase continues from Friday afternoon despite the pullback this morning, as the 60 min cycle continues lower into oversold territory. QQQQ is ticking below the 72 SMA at 37.50 as I type, but 30 min channel support is just below at 37.43. Bulls need to keep QQQQ above 37.50 to maintain the 30 min cycle upphase, which should be joined by an upturn in the 60 min cycle indicators later in the morning. On the other hand, a break of Friday's lows in the 37.37 area would stall and abort the current 30 min upphase, setting the stage for new lows within the ongoing daily cycle downphase.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 9:03:59 AM

The USD Index continues higher to the 89.25 level as the USD makes new 9 month highs against the Euro and Yen. US equities and treasuries remain negative, as are gold and silver in US dollars. Intraday USD Index chart at this Link .

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 8:48:30 AM

Last week, the OEX managed another week continuing the 566-570 range for candle bodies and a broadening range for the candle shadows. No breakout, and it's getting more and more difficult to determine where a breakout would be. A close beneath the 100-sma, currently at 564.74, would at least be a change in the recent pattern. So would a close above 570, but these intraday spikes outside that range are always soon reversed. There's some hint that the broadening formation may now be narrowing. When broadening formations do that, it's sometimes easier to define a breakout, but this one remains spiky and difficult to read so far. I see no clearly defined narrowing triangle, for example.

The OEX ended the week right in the middle of that broadening formation. It ended the week roughly in the middle of the 15-minute Keltner channels. In fact, it ended up right on the mid-channel S/R level, with Keltner support and resistance roughly equal.

The daily Keltner chart shows the OEX sending spikes down to mid-channel daily support, from 560.15-562.70 and then bouncing from there, but those bounces were getting stopped before they could get much above (on daily closes) the central line of the smallest Keltner channel.

The OEX needs a big impulsive move that sees follow-through. It's likely to come out of nowhere and it's likely to move quickly once the breakout holds, but the Nikkei's big, big move in the first few minutes of trading, soon to be reversed, is a scary example, too. Right now, charts just aren't showing which direction the OEX's breakout will be. I could make a bearish case and an equally valid bullish one. And that's part of the problem. Bulls have seen enough to interest them, and bears, the same, but neither has been able to gain more strength than the other. And until that happens, it's just plain impossible to tell what will happen next and where and when the breakout will be. I'm not refusing to make a decision or being wishy-washy: I'm making a firm statement that charts just do not give clarity and that it's dangerous to assume a direction and get married to it.

For earliest trading, here's how the 15-minute Keltner channels line up: If the current weakness in futures sees follow-through on the OEX's behavior, the OEX might pull back low enough to test potential Keltner support at 565.34-565.62, and bulls want to see that support hold on 15-minute closes. If it doesn't, the OEX is vulnerable back to that 563-564 zone. If, instead, the OEX bounces at the open and produces a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 566.29, it sets an upside target in the 567.80-ish zone.

Tab Gilles : 6/13/2005 8:43:18 AM

EUR/USD; PDG; NEM; $XAU charts Link Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 8:40:29 AM

Traders in the SOX or its components might not have noticed in my Asia/Europe report that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) dropped more than 6% last night in Asia, so I wanted to repeat that information here. TSM is a SOX component. I don't know if TSM's weakness will carry through in U.S. trading, as Asian performance, either good or bad, doesn't always carry through to U.S. trading.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 8:31:03 AM

Equities are edging lower, QQQQ down -.08 to 37.47 while bonds are holding their losses, TNX currently higher by 2.7 bps at 4.074%, gapping to a new high for the move. Today's print is a small smudge below 4.08% on the daily chart: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/13/2005 7:44:04 AM

Equities are down, September ES trading 1202.25, NQ 1533, YM 10536 and QQQQ -.05 at 37.49. Ten year notes are down 13/64 at 112 59/64, gold -1.20 at 428.20, silver -.026 at 7.256 and crude oil -.20 at 53.35.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2005 7:00:53 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei shot up in early trading, but trended down the rest of the day, closing higher by only a few points. Other Asian markets were mixed. European markets are mixed, with some benefiting during early trading from a higher dollar and lower crude costs. Our futures are modestly lower, easing slightly as this report was prepared. As of 6:46 EST, gold was down $1.00 and crude, down $0.16 to $53.38. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Last night, Japan trimmed its estimate of first-quarter economic growth to an annualized 4.9%, down from its original 5.3%, in a surprise move. Quarter-over-quarter, the economy expanded 1.2%. Most economists had expected the GDP's annualized number to rise. Prices did not fall as much as the government has originally estimated, and slow demand led manufacturers to limit inventories. The GDP deflator fell 1% from the year-ago level, but against expectations of a bigger decline. The Nikkei shot straight up from the flat-line level Monday morning, climbing almost 70 points above Friday's close, but it was to reach its high of the day in the first hour of trading and trend down the rest of the day. It managed a positive close, up 7.28 points or 0.06%, at 11,311.51, but that will have left a bearish shooting star candle at the top of a several-day climb as the Nikkei faced the June 2 high. With the dollar rising again, automakers and other exporters to the U.S. benefited.

Other Asian markets were mixed. Taiwan Semiconductor dropped a hefty 6.2% Monday in Taiwan. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.62%, but South Korea's Kospi was down 0.03%. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.07%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.12%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 0.18%. One report noted that the meeting of the G8 financial minister's this weekend did not address the yuan. China did sign an agreement with the European Union that covered textile export quotas, and that weighed on the market despite further steps by the Chinese government to boost interest in stock shares. Also of note, China's CPI showed tame inflation, rising 1.8% in May.

Most European markets gain, with crude slipping lower after talk that OPEC will call for an increase in production this week. The dollar's strength also helps European exporters to the U.S. The Paris Air Show has begun, with Boeing winning a $4.6 billion Qatar order. In addition, M&A talk boosts sentiment, with much talk centering on Unicredito Italiano SpA's agreement to buy Germany's HVB Group and its publicly traded subsidiaries. A Marketwatch article notes that this will be Europe's biggest cross-border banking acquisition. The acquisition is the focus of much talk on CNBC Europe this morning, too, with the German government saying that it's not its place to comment on such transactions. Other German banks rose, too. Also a London paper reported that financier Andrew Regan may bid on insurer Royal & Sun Alliance PLC. Spohn Cement has bid on Heidelberg Cement, sending Heidelberg's peers higher on Monday. Other M&A activity occurred, too.

As of 6:47 EST, the FTSE 100 was up 6.40 points or 0.13%, at 5,036.80. The CAC 40 was higher by 4.61 points or 0.11%, at 4,188.71. The DAX had slipped lower as this report was prepared, currently down 0.12 points or 0.00%, at 4,585.98.

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