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Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 10:08:16 PM

NASDAQ Comp. Bullish % On Thursday of last week, Dorsey/Wright & Assoc. very broad NASDAQ Composite Bullish % (BPOTC) reversed back higher to "bear correction" status with a reading of 44.00% and as of Tuesday night, was at 44.87%. StockCharts.com's NASDAQ Comp. Bullish % (BPCOMPQ) Link getting close with tonight's reading of 43.91%.

OI Technical Staff : 6/14/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 9:01:11 PM

VXN.X 15.75 ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... 14.12, 15.01, Piv= 15.64, 16.53, 17.16. DAILY Pivot Levels should be ... 15.23, 15.49, Piv= 15.84, 16.10, 16.45.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 8:00:37 PM

QQQQ/NDX.X traders ... watch your VXN.X closely tomorrow. IF Lower trade in OIL (inventory figures tomorrow morning), then a sharp decline in VXN.X could see $38 Put Selling and $38 Call Buying (1:5 ratio) with QQQQ upside to $38.20. Keep monitoring OI at various strikes as we near triple witch! QQQQ/NDX option chains, sorted by most active at this Link ... CBOE showing just 10 of the Dec. $33 Puts having traded today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 6:43:15 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... No activity today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 6:28:51 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 5:55:10 PM

Some gap action in the VXN.X too.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 5:52:02 PM

Looks like some weird intra-day VIX.X readings (not sure if bad data as not reflected in my intra-day internals) from 02:25-02:30 PM when VIX.X jumped from 11.68 to 11.98. Than at 03:30 PM, VIX.X reaches 12.02, and next 5-minute bar gaps lower to 11.71. SPY Jun 120 Call (SPY-FP) $1.05 finishes as most active (8,702) and I do see 5,000 contracts changed hands from the 02:35-02:40 time interval at $1.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 4:54:52 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 4:42:31 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... Updated NYSE NH/NL Ratio Chart at this Link ... Updated NASDAQ NH/NL Ratio Chart at this Link Note: The NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) closed at its highest level since 03/18/05.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 4:06:57 PM

Buy Program Premium .... DIA $105.55, SPY $120.89

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 4:05:07 PM

July Crude Oil futures (cl05n) settled down $0.62, or -1.11% at $55.00 in Tuesday's trade. July Heating Oil (ho05n) settled down $0.0.25, or -1.47% at $1.6386. July Unleaded Gas (hu05n) settled down $0.0133, or -0.86% at $1.5409.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 3:52:01 PM

The RUT and RLX have been two big movers to the upside today. Both are testing upper Keltner resistance on their 15-minute charts. Are they going to lead markets into new breakouts or turn down and stop helping to prop up the markets? The RUT, of course, isn't directly impacting the OEX, but it certainly confuses market watchers who might have expected a downturn since they know the RUT's usual market-leading ways. The TRAN isn't participating among the indices that usually lead markets, however. It's a mixed-up mess.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 3:49:49 PM

The 30 min cycle downphase is now oversold, not yet turning up, but a move above 37.73-.75 should be enough to do it. However, because the 60 min cycle cycle downphase has room to run, the bias will remain to the downside until it has bottomed- potential several trading hours from now. More importantly, this is the second day of higher lows for QQQQ, even if there was a lower high. The daily cycle downphase continues, but the bears are going to have to do much better than this to avoid stalling it.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 3:36:32 PM

Like the OEX, the SOX has a rounding-over aspect to its daily chart, and it's at a critical point now, where it could either drop of its own weight, perhaps into the 416-419.50 area at least, or where a strong bounce could send it back above the 200-week sma that it's been testing. Dangerous point for SOX bulls and bears.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 3:35:03 PM

QQQQ back to the session low at 37.51 here, with 30 and 60 min channel support lined up at 37.42. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 3:32:03 PM

SOX still testing that 200-week sma.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 3:30:49 PM

Whatever else is happening or not happening on other indices, the OEX is still holding at the mid-channel Keltner level and at the midline of its ascending regression channel on its 15-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 3:24:49 PM

RUT turning higher again. The TRAN is testing the bottom of its possible bear flag, however. The RLX attempts a bounce. The SOX does, too, but it's tepid so far. The BIX still coils. Nothing definitive yet that you can point to and say, yes, that shows where next market direction is going to be.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 3:23:37 PM

QQQQ is bouncing here in its short cycle downphase, once again testing 72 SMA resistance from below at 37.61. Declining volume continues to lead 1.3:1, but there's just no oomph behind the sellers. Nor is there any on the buy side either- so far, the flats are winning.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 3:19:01 PM

The SOX is testing its 200-week sma at 425.59, with the SOX currently at 425.56. Important test for the SOX as Marc might warn us. Last week, the SOX managed a tepid bounce after testing this MA, but will it today?

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 3:13:32 PM

If you draw an ascending regression channel off the 6/08 low on the OEX, or let QCharts do it for you, the OEX has spent most of today, with the exception of the bump higher on the 1:45 candle, just hanging around at the midline of that ascending regression channel. Midline of that channel, mid-channel S/R on the Keltner charts: could anything be less clear?

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 3:13:24 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 3:08:36 PM

Best Buy (BBY) $67.85 +14.70% ... lurches to highs of session.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 3:04:15 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 3:02:12 PM

If the RUT has a bit of a bearish rising wedge look to its chart, the SOX has a bit of a bullish falling wedge look, both on the 15-minute chart. Just what we need is for each to reverse direction, one falling and one climbing.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 3:01:55 PM

The daily cycle has been in a downphase for the past 2 weeks, with current channel support lined up with the previous low at 37.37. The daily cycle requires lower lows and lower highs, and until that changes, the bias will remain down. The lack of downside strength here (along with the bullish trend in the 600 min stochastic) could be suggestive of an upcoming turn in the daily cycle, but it's too early to tell. The bearish trend remains below descending resistance at 37.75. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 3:00:19 PM

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $32.79 -0.41% ... said today that it will separate its PC and printer units just five months after former CEO Carly Fiorina combined the two units. HPQ saying it believes the move will further sharpen competitiveness and improve cost structure.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 2:58:40 PM

The RLX pushed above the 6/07 high of 449.46 but has now dropped below that level again, leaving only a tall candle shadow above the breakout zone. The RLX hasn't pushed lower again, however, hanging just under the 6/07 high. On the 60-minute chart, there was bearish price/RSI divergence and bearish Keltner-style divergence, but not bearish price/CCI divergence as today's high was hit.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 2:56:02 PM

Coffee Holding Co. (AMEX:JVA) $6.70 +25.23% ... percentage gainer at the AMEX after reporting quarterly results. Said sales jumped 60.6% to $10.1 million, earnings up 173% to $379,152 million, or $0.15 per share compared to 3-months ended April 30.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 2:51:15 PM

Ford Motor (F) $10.93 +3.89% ... said today that it is mulling IPO for its Hertz unit with Herts planning to sell a nominal $100 million in common shares while Ford determines whether to proceed with a public offering or sell Hertz to a third party. Analysts value Hertz between $4-$6 billion.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 2:48:13 PM

The OEX dropped heavily from just below 570, but it's holding above 567 and particularly above the 566.20 level that would confirm the double-top formation on the 15-minute chart. Keltner support at 566.80-567.12.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 2:44:02 PM

Gulf of Mexico Production ... DJ - According to U.S. Minerals Management, nearly all U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production back online. As of this morning, producers still had 5,686 barrels a day of oil and 59 million cubic feet a day of gas still shut in.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 2:38:25 PM

July crude oil closed lower by .55 at 55.075, off a low of 54.85 and a high of 55.80.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 2:37:38 PM

SOX still trying to steady at the 6/09 LOD of 425.86, with the SOX currently at 425.96. Bears needs to push it lower if they're going to maintain any downward momentum. Right now, resistance other than nearby resistance thins, so that if the SOX does rebound, it could get some upside momentum. Bulls need to make that happen, though, because if the SOX lingers too long, Keltner resistance could build. So, both bulls and bears need to get the SOX moving.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 2:35:39 PM

QQQQ tagged 37.51 for a second time and is bouncing again. The 30 and 60 min channels are moving in lockstep for the time being, and support lines up currently at 37.43. The 30/60min and daily cycle continue to point south, making this prime time for bears, but the decline continues to disappoint, both price and volume-wise.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 2:31:20 PM

The RUT hit the top of its rising bearish wedge shape and then turned down. Hasn't violated the 629.30-ish support, however.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 2:28:59 PM

The current 30-minute period is erasing all gains made in the previous 30-minute period on the SPX and OEX.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 2:28:12 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,202.65, DIA $105.44, QQQQ $37.55

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 2:27:22 PM

HMO.X Index (HMO.X) 1,505.00 +1.22% ... breaking out of little "bull flag" today. New all-time high too.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 2:24:07 PM

SOX headed down: RUT turned higher today. The RLX zoomed up (although pulling back currently): the BIX so far just coils. The TRAN coils. Is it any wonder that the broader markets and the OEX show choppy behavior?

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 2:19:30 PM

QQQQ is right back to where it started at noon, retracing half of this 17 cent rally. Volume is up to just under half of the average daily volume.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 2:13:36 PM

Big downturn from below 570 on the OEX, in the double-top level with yesterday's high. If the downturn continues past the mid-channel level, currently at 567 or so, this will have confirmed Keltner-style bearish divergence with this test.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 2:11:18 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 2:03:17 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 2:02:25 PM

BIG breakout above 15-minute Keltner resistance on the RUT. The climb is beginning to look a little bearish-rising-wedge-ish, but the RUT is either breaking over the top of that wedge or testing the top of it, depending on how the top line is drawn. It's climbed right into daily Keltner resistance at 633.51, with the RUT just above that now, but far from having confirmed that it's bested that resistance by a daily close above it. Danger point now for both RUT bulls and bears.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 2:01:19 PM

Session low for July crude, -.75 at 54.875.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 2:00:02 PM

Session highs here for ES and YM futures, but NQ and QQQQ just quiet. Volume breadth is still negative on the Nasdaq, strengthening to a 1.15:1 lead for declining volume. On the NYSE, advancing volume leads 2.67:1.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 1:58:49 PM

SOX attempting a bounce, but running into Keltner resistance from 426.26-426.93. Bears want to see continued 15-minute closes below that resistance, but above that, Keltner resistance thins.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 1:59:34 PM

Retail Indx. (RLX.X) 450.12 +1.92% Link ... double top buy signal.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 1:53:16 PM

Crude oil -.275 here at 55.35, printing a flat, narrow range at the top of yesterday's rally: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 1:51:22 PM

Morgan Stanley (MWD) $50.48 -0.80% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 1:51:00 PM

Lehman Bros. (LEH) $95.51 +2.64% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 1:50:40 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $100.00 +0.74% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 1:50:01 PM

Helicopter crash near Wall Street. Seven (7) on board all accounted for. 1 seriously injured.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 1:47:20 PM

Input/Output (IO) $6.74 +1.35% ... "bad tick" at $7.47.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 1:46:36 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,205.60, DIA $105.68, QQQQ $37.65

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 1:46:21 PM

QQQQ has just crossed the 72 SMA resistance line for the first time since this morning, with bullish divergences in the short cycle indicators flipping to buy signals. 30 min channel resistance is just above at 37.70, however.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 1:42:54 PM

The OEX attempts to move higher now above the descending trendline off yesterday's high. Lots of testing this way and that, and this triangular formation apparently can't be trusted any more than any of the others lately. We're approaching the stop-running time of day now, so an impulsive move might flare up or down, with market participants waiting to see if the fire is damped out or flames brighter. At least we can hope there's a stop-running move.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 1:38:37 PM

If the SOX were to close the day below the 6/09 low of 425.86, a low it's testing now, it would look vulnerable to daily Keltner support near 420.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 1:40:41 PM

QQQQ June option chain sorted by OI at this Link ... can compare to 06/10/05 10:49 AM EDT chain (focus $37/$38 strike) at this Link ... RED/GREEN/BLUE arrows depict DROP/INCREASE/NO Change in OI. Analysis Update: No change from Friday. Look long QQQQ lower $37, but sell upper $37 near $38.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 1:31:54 PM

Ten year bonds are holding just off the session lows, TNX currently up 3.6 bps at 4.122%. Daily chart updated at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 1:15:40 PM

QQQQ session low at 37.51 with another small burst of volume, bringing the total to 33.8M QQQQs traded so far today compared with yesterday's 89.3M total. Declining volume now leads 1.65:1 on the Nasdaq. The intraday bias remains bearish below 37.62, the current 72 SMA, but the weak volume and slow movement during this synchronous 30 min/60 min/daily cycle downphase bodes ill for the bears. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 1:12:44 PM

The RLX eases again, but the formation in which it pulls back could still be a bull flag. First Klenter support still holds, so far.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 1:11:18 PM

SOX dropping again, now toward the 6/09 low of 425.86. The SOX is at 426.19 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 1:10:41 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link ... my data feed for the $FVX.X had been stuck at 3.872%. Looks to be freed up with 5-year up 2.3 bp at 3.887%.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 1:09:30 PM

The link in my 1:07 post isn't working despite a couple of tries. Draw an ascending trendline off the 6/10 low, and the OEX appears to be dropping below that trendline, but in a sideways kind of move, so that it's uncertain if this is a break out of a new neutral triangle or just more sideways trading. There's been no impulsive drop to confirm a downside break.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 1:07:13 PM

Is this a formation break or is the OEX just trading sideways out of this triangle? Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 1:03:38 PM

The Treasury has just announced the results of its 8B 4-week bill auction, which generated a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.81, a strong showing, with 93.39% of the awards allotted at the high yield of 2.735%. Indirect bidders (foreign central banks) took 2.05B of the total.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 1:02:40 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Tab Gilles : 6/14/2005 12:56:49 PM

EVV Stop 10-ema, sell EVV $18, cost basis $17.25. Link

TLT down, TLTUQ Sept 95 puts currently bid $3.20/ask $3.40 and YLIMQ Jan 95 puts up bid $4.70/Ask $5.00. Link

TLT As mentioned on 6/8 4:40PM post. Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 12:52:00 PM

The RLX hasn't fallen far, but far enough to test the rising first Keltner support on the 15-minute chart. Now it bumps up again, perahps rising into another test of Keltner resistance, at 448.54 and 449.31, or into another test of the 6/07 high of 449.46. Next direction uncertain.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 12:44:51 PM

The OEX still coils, and the potential inverse H&S, at least, has fizzled out. I mentioned earlier that I didn't put a lot of trust in these formations right now as many have set up and not been confirmed or not gone anywhere after being confirmed.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 12:44:04 PM

Crude oil is -.40 here at 55.225, a .72% decline. So far, the market doesn't seem at all impressed with this morning's comments from OPEC President Sheik Ahmed Fahd Al Ahmed Al Sabah of Kuwait to the effect that OPEC must reign in prices to "more reasonable" levels.

Jim Brown : 6/14/2005 12:40:34 PM

The Russell has found some serious resistance at 632 and the candles are getting progressively shorter and tighter. There is a sharp move ahead but direction is still undecided. The Russell rebalance has actually given it some upward pressure this year instead of the downward pressure we normally see. There appears to be an internal shifting of positions with stocks already in the Russell seeing their weighting increased. This happens when the bigger caps growing larger and the new stocks coming in being much smaller. This puts less emphasis on buying the new small caps than increasing weighting on those that have moved up in capitalization. This is unusual in recent years.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 12:39:24 PM

QQQQ edges lower to 37.55 here, a new low, but channel support ilined up just beneath daily S1 at 37.50. Volume breadth has only weakened slightly, 1.54 declining Nasdaq shares for each advancing. QQQQ volume is the lightest I've seen in awhile, with just 29.7M shares traded so far. We're just reaching 1/3 of yesterday's lighter than average volume. Updated chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 12:31:35 PM

The RLX is finally pulling back toward Keltner support from 446.71-447.58. Bulls want to see that hold on 15-minute closes, and that includes OEX bulls.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 12:24:33 PM

SOX dropping again, but toward 427.05 Keltner support.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 12:23:34 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes to nurse a headache.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 12:20:08 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 12:11:41 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 12:11:21 PM

The 60 min cycle indicators have finally rolled over below overbought territory, and the 30 min cycle downphase is still in progress. Unfortunately for QQQQ bears, that downphase is just approaching oversold territory, and volume has been as weak as price traction. The next hour or two should be prime time for intraday bears, despite the short cycle indicators being oversold here. If bears can't get the decline going soon, the next upphase will kick off from a higher low above Friday's range.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 12:11:12 PM

The RLX still hangs near the top of the day's range, not yet retreating to test 446.25-447.39 support, although it looks vulnerable to that test.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 12:06:11 PM

The OEX coils in either an inverse H&S or a potential bullish right triangle. Both have bullish implications over the very short term, but still need confirmation by a push above 568.52. Prices would then slam right into 569.55 Keltner resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 12:04:12 PM

NDX Option Chain sorted by OI at this Link ... strikes ABOVE would be 1,550 and below 1,500. Alot of OI for June currently OUT the money.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 12:03:01 PM

Session low for 10-year notes, ZN futures down -9/64 at 112 7/17 and TNX +3.9 bps at 4.125%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 11:54:19 AM

NDX Option Chain ... most actives at this Link ... Options Market Maker probably wants to keep ABOVE the Jun 1,500 Put (same as QQQQ $37 Put). While 1,530 Call has been "in the money" that's probably equivalent to QQQQ $37.80. 1,530 Call equivalent to QQQQ $38 in my mind.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 11:54:05 AM

The BIX isn't going much of anywhere today, consolidating just above the 100-sma and 200-ema, at 359.87 and 359.11, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 11:47:01 AM

I'm watching the TRAN for evidence of either a burst up through the top of the presumed bear flag formation or else for a breakdown out of that formation, but the TRAN instead trades in a narrowing range, not moving much of anywhere.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 11:45:37 AM

RLX consolidating below the Keltner resistance it hit earlier this morning. It's not falling, so it might not be through testing that resistance, now at 449.16 with the RLX at 448.29 as I type. There's a slight hint of a need to pull back to 446-447, but no confirmation of that yet, so no clarity here, either.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 11:45:24 AM

Volume breadth remains negative for the Nasdaq, 1.27 declining shares for each advancing, and positive on the NYSE 1.79:1. QQQQ is holding at the lows, but on very, very light volume of just 25.3M shares so far.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 11:42:32 AM

Almost two weeks ago (6/02, 9:13), I termed myself a "chopper" rather than a bull or a bear. I had hopes that the OEX would narrow that broadening formation into a well-formed neutral triangle or some other formation with clearly defined parameters, so that we could finally identify a breakout or breakdown. That hasn't happened, and my refusal to guess on direction during that time has been based on the lack of chart evidence that shows direction. That's been proven out over the last two weeks as there have been some opportunities for intraday scalps (but fewer and fewer) but only if a trader was willing to get out quickly when a reversal began or when either 570 or 566 was approached. I still don't see clarity in the charts, an absolute decision on my part and not a refusal to guess. Be careful.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 11:32:17 AM

Session low for QQQQ here with a small pickup in volu,e. 30 min channel support has steadied at 37.47, and the 60 min channel bottom has drifted a few cents lower. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/14/2005 11:32:34 AM

I get Max pain at 1500, but that has been little help these days, maybe gives us a direction bias.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 11:28:53 AM

Hold it up AND hold it down based on my observations of QQQQ open interest for June. Haven't taken a look at NDX open interest though.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 11:28:29 AM

I think the RLX's performance is often important ot the OEX's, and the RLX has been zooming higher all morning, so that it's probably difficult to drive the OEX much lower while that's happening. The RLX has now hit Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart and is approaching the June 7 high of 449.46, presumed strong resistance. The RLX is at 448.70 as I type. There are some signs of Keltner-style bearish divergence as this resistance is tested. This warns of waning strength, but waning strength can be resolved by a sideways consolidation, too.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/14/2005 11:27:01 AM

Jeff, you think they are trying to hold up NDX 1525? Now at 1526 and it seems OE players want it.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 11:26:53 AM

Best Buy (BBY) $66.61 +12.66% Link ... electronics and home appliance retailer surging after the nation's largest electronics chain store said quarterly profits surged 85% vs. year ago to $170 million, or $0.51 per share compared with $92 million, or $0.28 per share. Analysts were looking for a profit of $0.30 per share. Revenues rose 12% to $6.1 billion.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 11:17:08 AM

There's a hint of an inverse H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart, neckline at about 568.52. The OEX is rounding up into a potential right shoulder. Please don't make too much of this, as we're seeing a lot of potential bullish or bearish formations that never go anywhere.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 11:15:21 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 11:14:45 AM

Ten year notes are holding at session lows, with TNX currently up 2.4 bps at 4.11%. Next resistance is in the 4.14%-4.16% confluence. July crude oil is down .225 at 55.40, off a low of 55.05.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 11:09:50 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 11:05:11 AM

SOX slightly below yesterday's low--oops, rising now--but still within testing range.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 11:01:53 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 10:59:10 AM

RUT still holding near the top of its Keltner channels, but a 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently near 629.73 might see 628-628.40 tested at least, if not 625.20-625.82. A study of the RUT's behavior with respect to the 10-minute 100-ema suggests it may soon be time for that average, currently at 627.05 but still rising, to be retested, too, as I suggested earlier.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 10:57:21 AM

QQQQ has stopped dead at the 37.60 line, with volume very light at 21.2M shares so far and breadth holding just below neutral. 30 min channel support is down to 37.48, but the 60 min channel is going to have to roll in order for price to move lower. This could be the "weightless" period as the wide intraday channel swings from its upphase to its downphase, but if that's valid, price will need to stay below 37.80 for any bounce.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 10:56:58 AM

As the Futures writers are noting, the SOX is falling toward a test of yesterday's early morning low, with that low at 428.38 and with the SOX currently at 428.45.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 10:54:19 AM

The OEX is just sitting at the mid-channel level on the 15-minute Keltner chart, and just above the mid-channel level on the 30- and 60-minute and daily charts.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 10:48:54 AM

10 Most Active ... QQQQ $37.60 -0.34%, SIRI $5.94 -0.83%, WBR $1.12 +15.46% (merger), MSFT $25.30 -0.03%, LU $2.90 +0.69%, INTC $26.93 -0.25%, SPY $120.60 +0.02%, BBY $66.48 +12.44%, F $10.93 +3.8%, CSCO $19.28 -0.10%

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 10:38:35 AM

Scanning OEX Keltner charts from daily down to 15-minute intervals shows channels settled into equilibrium positions by the prolonged consolidation period. On a daily traditional candlestick chart, there's a gradual rounding over of prices, in a bearish upside-down saucer or cup shape. As long as that continues, I guess the presumption would be that lower will be more likely than higher over the intermediate term, but the near-term is harder to interpret, and a close above 570 would warn of a potential change in that round-over look.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 10:38:57 AM

Sorry, just realized that I'd inadvertently posted this on the Futures side: A Keltner chart for the RUT: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 10:31:33 AM

QQQQ is chewing on 60 min channel support at 37.60 as the 30 min channel bottom declines to daily S1 at 37.53: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 10:27:23 AM

OEX testing mid-channel Keltner support, down to 566.40-566.87. No resolution to this mess just yet.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 10:31:48 AM

Royale Energy (ROYL) $11.09 +35.50% ... "hot" again today (see 06/06/05 MM). New 52-weeker. Late yesterday the driller announced that it has brought 2 new wells into production. Story at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 10:29:35 AM

Declining volume pulls ahead on the Nasdaq 1.32:1 currently, while advancing volume continues to lead 1.77:1 on the NYSE.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 10:22:25 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,201.50, DIA $105.34, QQQQ $37.64.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 10:20:52 AM

The OEX turns down toward the central channel level again. Support just below the OEX looks strong enough to prompt a bounce, but I don't completely trust that evidence since the Keltner channels remain within an equilibrium position. The OEX sometimes moves freely across that mid-channel level when that happens.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 10:20:48 AM

Gold continues to hold between the 428-429 confluence support and resistance at 432-433, currently -1.60 at 429.30 with silver up 2 cents at 7.281. Both XAU and HUI have fractional losses- little direction evident there either. Ten year notes are holding their losses, TNX up 1.7 bps at 4.103%, while crude oil is down .025 at 55.60.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 10:21:47 AM

Merger ... Commercial Federal (CFB) $33.96 +30.91% saying it has agreed to be bought by BNP Paribas' for $1.36 billion (1.1 billion euros) in cash. The deal values CFB at $34.50 per share. In addition, BNP Paribas said the $34.50 per share price includes a one-time $0.50 per share dividend.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 10:17:34 AM

Since last Thursday, the RUT has been bouncing from tests of its 10-minute 100-ema, currently at 626.80. I did so twice yesterday, although the MA was at slightly different levels then. The bounces away from that average have become more and more extravagant, but unless the RUT is going to go straight up, it should soon be time to come back and retest that now-rising average.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 10:14:48 AM

Payless Shoe (PSS) $18.64 +1.35% Link ... notable new 52-week at the big board.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 10:14:09 AM

The TRAN still zigs and zags within what may be a bear flag rising off last week's low. It has not yet retraced even 38.2% of the steep drop completed last week.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 10:12:54 AM

RUT moving higher again. CCI flattening, though, on the 15-minute chart, although there's a hint it may turn higher again. RSI--I like to use the 9-period one--turns a bit higher, but on the 15-minute chart, still shows tentative price/RSI divergence.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 10:15:09 AM

General Motors (GM) $35.70 +3.62% Link ... challenges its trending lower 200-day SMA ($36.03) early this morning on reports that it is pushing for healthcare reforms from United Auto Workers (UAW).

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 10:11:02 AM

Knew I didn't trust that move higher in the OEX just yet. I don't trust much that's happening just yet, though. There will be better trading conditions, I promise, but this isn't one of those times, as the disorganization that forms a broadening formation in the first place becomes apparent in the choppy trading behavior.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 10:09:33 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 10:08:29 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 10:07:58 AM

QQQQ and the SOX are dropping here, and volume breadth has weakened to just above neutral, with 1.13 advancing Nasdaq shares for each declining. 60 min channel support remains at 37.60, while the 30 min bottom has declined to 37.57. The 60 min channel has stopped rising, and may just be marking time before it joins the 30 min cycle to the downside.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 10:07:16 AM

I never was much of a fan of MACD until 2003, when I found it the only indicator to be telling the truth at times about where markets were headed. Of course, part of that is because MACD is slower to respond and so it didn't pick up the little sideways movements before they were over and trend resumed. I don't like it so much in these current market conditions, though. We technical traders can't afford to get wedded to any one indicator and obstinately stay with it while market conditions change, can we?

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 10:02:28 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 10:01:52 AM

I like RSI, too, Marc. (See Marc's 10:00 post.) I don't know why I've neglected it lately. I was testing out some CCI stuff I'd been studying, but think I like RSI just as well or better. Both can give leading indications as well as corroborating them.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 9:56:20 AM

QQQQ is hanging on the 72 SMA at 37.77, trading both sides of the line in the middle of the 30 and 60 min cycle channels. There's still no resolution to the opposition of the 30 min and 60 min cycles- just more chop.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 9:56:13 AM

The RUT rose this 15-minute period to test yesterday's high, slightly exceeding it before pulling back. So far, there's price/CCI bearish divergence as that high was retested, but CCI still turns higher, so I'd have to qualify it as "tentative" negative divergence.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 9:54:50 AM

The Fed's 4.25B overnight repo from yesterday has just been replaced with a 7B overnight repo, for a net add of 2.75B.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 9:52:13 AM

VIX.X 11.64 -0.08% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 10.88, 11.27, Piv= 11.69, 12.08, 12.50

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 9:50:51 AM

The OEX did close the last 15-minute period above a Keltner line that bulls wanted to see hold, setting a tentative upside target of 568.71 or perhaps even 569.48. I'm just not sure I believe it this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 9:44:52 AM

Volume breadth is strong on both exchanges, advancing volume leading 2:1 on the NYSE and 2.75:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 9:43:53 AM

That 30-minute Keltner channel that usually contains the OEX's movements this month now spans from 563.37-570.28, so that 570.28 level should be watched as possible strong resistance if the OEX should rise that high. We already knew that was resistance, though, didn't we? Right now, the OEX is right in the middle of that Keltner channel, and isn't showing strong clues as to next direction.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 9:40:02 AM

The support that OEX bulls wanted to see hold did hold, and now the OEX bounces, but it's dangerous in this zone to assume too much. Bulls want to see a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 567.50, with the OEX above that line as I type, but not having closed a 15-minute period above it.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 9:34:07 AM

The RLX bounces this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 9:33:37 AM

QQQQ is retesting yesterday afternoon's lows. Currently channel support lines up with confluence at 37.60, below which 37.48 is next and stronger confluence support.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 9:32:52 AM

The OEX dropped to test 15-minute Keltner support at 566.40-566.81. Bulls want to see that support maintained and the OEX moving above a line currently at 567.40, but bears want moves below all those numbers, setting a tentative downside target of 564.84.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 9:32:19 AM

Lehman Bros. (LEH) $93.05 ... said earnings rose 12% in recent quarter to $683 million, or $2.26 per share, from $609, or $2.01 per share in the same period last year. Total revenue less interest expense also up 12% to $3.28 billion from $2.93 billion last year. Analysts were looking for the investment house to earn $2.22 per share on sales of $3.21 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 9:26:49 AM

Mylan Labs (MYL) $17.70 ... higher at $19.00 after company said it plans to buy back $1.25 billion in stock, or about 25% of its shares through a Dutch auction of $18-$20.50 per share. The company also plans to license out its nebivolol drug business, and double its annual dividend to $0.24 a share from $0.12. Mid-quarter update has company looking to earn between $0.92 per share and $1.15 in fiscal 2006. Analysts were looking for $0.81 per share.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2005 9:20:58 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.72 and set for program selling at $+4.17.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 9:19:51 AM

Session lows for equities here, QQQQ testing 37.70 at the 30 min channel bottom. The 72 SMA is at 37.78, and the intraday bias is to the downside below that.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 9:15:36 AM

Futures continued lower while I prepared that last OEX-related post, so that now only NQ's are positive.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 9:14:37 AM

The OEX did it again yesterday. It rattled around between 564.60 and 570, the parameters within which most daily candles form over the last few weeks. A move up to 570 was soon knocked back, as they have been over the last week. It hit the top of a 30-minute Keltner channel that has been mostly containing the OEX over the last several weeks and bumped back down to the mid-channel level. Link Another chart, the 120-minute chart with 21/100/130-ema's, shows the importance of the 100/130-ema's over the last month, with the 100/130-ema's being exact bounce points over the last week. Link Clearly, if the OEX should continue to decline today, bears should have protecting measures in place for a test of those 100/130-ema's, at 564.32 and 563.62, respectively. A failure to bounce from those averages would be a change in tenor, confirming the rounding-over aspect of the OEX, but bears should be aware of potential support from 559.50-562.00. Currently, futures are slightly higher, but off post-economic-release bump higher. If the OEX does turn higher this morning, the first Keltner resistance will be found at 567.51 on 15-minute closes. A sustained move above that could see 568.61-569.41 retested, but that's again a move into that zone that has been problematic for the OEX bulls over the last week. A pattern lately has been an early zoom one direction or another, cutting through support or resistance, then steadying through midday.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 9:07:24 AM

TNX has just gone green as well, TNX +.4 bps at 4.09% as ten year notes slip negative.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 9:00:06 AM

The third option is just more sideways/rangebound chop. The daily charts show almost no net change for the past week.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 8:56:23 AM

QQQQ chart at this Link with this morning's premarket data. The 30 min cycle is roughly halfway into its downphase, while the ongoing 60 min cycle upphase has reached overbought territory. My guess is that it, and not the 30 min downphase, will run out of steam first. Either way, a move above 37.95 or below 37.60 should decide it.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 8:45:36 AM

Bonds are holding their gains here, while QQQQ has pulled back to 37.80, +.07.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 8:33:43 AM

TNX is now down 2.2 bps to 4.064%, with QQQQ up .16 at 37.89, above 30 min channel resistance and testing the 60 min channel top.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 8:32:06 AM

Session highs for bonds, big spike up for equities but edging back now.









Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 8:26:31 AM

Ten year notes are holding a light gain within yesterday's range, TNX currently down .3 bps at 4.083%. Daily chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/14/2005 7:46:54 AM

Equities are mixed, ES trading 1206.75, NQ 1543.5, YM 10565 and QQQQ +.01 at 37.74. Gold is down 1.90 to 429, silver +.023 at 7.285, ten year notes +3/64 at 112 21/32 and crude oil is down .40 at 55.225.

We await the release of the PPI and Core PPI, est. -.2% and +.2% respective, as well as retail sales and retail sales ex-auto, est. -.2% and +.2% respectively as well.

Linda Piazza : 6/14/2005 7:42:06 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei gapped higher last night, but then spent the day coiling inside the gap. Many other Asian markets declined, as do many European markets this morning. Our futures are either side of the flat-line level, having traded sideways most of the night. As of 7:14 EST, gold was down $2.30, and crude, down $0.47 to $55.15. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped higher Tuesday morning, but then coiled inside the gap the rest of the day. It closed higher by 24.41 points or 0.22%, at 11,335.92. The firming dollar helped the exporters during early trading, but the dollar was to slip lower against the yen most of the night. Shipbuilders declined after shipbroker Clarkson PLC said lower steel prices and demand for ships had prompted it to lower its estimate for the prices of new ships.

Economic developments may have weighed on sentiment, too. In May, Japan's bankruptcy cases climbed 1.5% over the previous month's and debt rose 72.9% in the same period, one source reports. Beginning tonight, the Bank of Japan will conduct a two-day meeting, with some speculating that the central bank might trim its liquidity target from its current 30-35 trillion yen level. The effect on the Japanese economy of a yuan revaluation might also be discussed, a newspaper report theorized.

Many Asian markets declined. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.41%, and South Korea's Kospi fell 0.68%. Many of South Korea's exporters fell after a report that showed that moderating demand from China is hurting the exporters. The central bank announced that May's export prices fell 10.3% on the year, with the rate of the drop accelerating to 3.3%, according to a Marketwatch article. Import prices fell only 2.7% on the year. Singapore's Straits Times declined 16.67%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng retreated 0.34%. China's Shanghai Composite lost 1.16%, with textile-related issues dropping after one warned of a net loss for the first half of the year. May's retail sales rose 12.8% on the year, the government announced, with that growth higher than April's.

Many European markets turn lower this morning, too. In France, May's CPI rose 0.1% month over month, with the resultant year over year rate declining to 1.5% from April's 1.8%. When harmonized with EU standards, CPI was flat month over month and decreased to 1.7% year over year from April's number. Moderating crude costs helped, of course. In the U.K., the RICS house price May balance was weak, at -49. This number had been expected to decline, but the fall was much steeper than expected. The Bank of England's governor also spoke out, diminishing hopes of a rate cut in August. The U.K.'s May CPI was stronger than expected, rising 0.4% month over month but staying unchanged for the year. That higher-than-expected rise should also do its part to dampen rate-cut hopes.

The ECB released figures showing that mortgage rates have risen for the first time since last August. Also impacting trading was a report by hedge fund manager GLG Partners, saying that a flaw in its trading model, a model it claims is similar to that used by many other banks and hedge funds, was responsible for a 14.5% drop in May in the value of one of its funds. That report raised liquidity concerns, one article reports.

Companies giving earnings reports included Royal Ahold, gaining after it held to its previous 2006 goals although net profits appear to be a bit shy of expectations, and U.K. hotel and restaurant company Whitbread PLC, easing after its earnings report and announcement that its chairman will leave. Lehman Brothers downgraded Unicredito Italiano after the company's announcement yesterday that it will acquire HVB AG. Morgan Stanley downgraded clothing manufacturer Inditex, but the stock was rebounding after Monday's steep losses. UBS upgraded ASML to a buy rating, based on demand for its 193nm immersion tools, with the firm believing that will offset weakness projected for DRAM orders next year.

As of 7:35 EST, the FTSE 100 was down 6.00 points or 0.12%, at 5,044.40. The CAC 40 had dropped 13.13 points or 0.31%, to 4,190.37. The DAX had fallen 12.60 points or 0.27%, to 4,586.61.

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