Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 12:03:59 AM

Pivot Matrix for Thursday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 11:58:09 PM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.54 and set for program selling at $+3.90.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 10:53:43 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Swing trade long the QQQQ at $37.46, stop $37.10, targeting $39.00. Please remember that trackers (i.e QQQQ, DIA, SPY) options expire on Friday's close. Will run the Pivot Matrix Levels, but I haven't been tracking those SZP-FD's for my health. I still think they go "poof."

OI Technical Staff : 6/15/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 5:19:08 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 4:22:00 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 6/15/2005 4:01:29 PM

$NDX Link

No Sell Signal as of yet! Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 3:59:50 PM

The OEX is ending the day just below 570, it appears. Sigh.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 3:54:45 PM

Westar Energy (WR) $23.35 -0.63% ... files to sell $600M First Morgage Bonds, also files to sell 7M common shares. In other news, jury selection begins in WR retrial with former executives charged with trying to loot the utility.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 3:54:29 PM

The RLX has had a strong day today, moving back above that huge gap in January . . . until you actually look at the daily candle. It's a doji with a long lower shadow, with the open and current value sitting above yesterday's tall white candle. In this environment, I would never, never assume that tomorrow would produce the third candle, the long red one, needed for confirmation of a reversal signal, but that possibility exists if the RLX closes anywhere near the current 451.56 level. I've been saying for a while that the components the RLX shares with the OEX are sometimes important in the OEX's behavior, and they've perhaps been helping to prop up the OEX. For that reason, OEX bulls do not want to see the RLX complete an evening-star reversal signal tomorrow.

Tab Gilles : 6/15/2005 3:53:20 PM

Followup on Sept 95 (TLTUQ) put and Jan 95 (YLIMQ) put for TLT. Link Link As per 6/14 12:56PM post

Tab Gilles : 6/15/2005 3:50:22 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link

Taking more profits at $52.50, P/O $55 Link

Tab Gilles : 6/15/2005 3:46:14 PM


Non-Commercial Long 22,939 Short 40,710 ; Commercial Long 125,244 Short 105,308 Link Link Link

CHF/USD Swiss Franc Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 3:41:44 PM

The SOX currently tests a best-fit descending trendline off the 6/09 high.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 3:37:26 PM

VXO currently 10.93, QQV -.44 at 14.26.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 3:37:01 PM

The SOX is back above the 200-week sma.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 3:38:15 PM

QQQQ 03:30 PM EDT most active options at this Link ... some "pain" experienced in the $37 and $38 puts from 01:59 benchmark. Might have been alert if monitoring VXN.X at 16.50 level (prior QQQQ option chain and VXN.X analysis in MM).

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 3:36:15 PM

The OEX heads toward a Keltner line currently at 569.36. That's next resistance. Above that is 570, of course.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 3:36:09 PM

Vertical spike from QQQQ, blowing past the 60 min channel top and testing the 30 min again as the short cycle indicators begin trending in overbought territory. It's either a throwover or the confirmation of a very strong 30 min cycle upphase shaping up. Today's been as wild as yesterday was slow.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 3:28:55 PM

The RUT is attempting a breakout again above Keltner resistance, but not yet above the rising trendline of its former rising wedge, which might just have widened into a regular rising regression channel when it broke lower this morning. Mixed up stuff.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 3:26:01 PM

Volume breadth 1.29:1 positive on the NYSE, 1.22:1 negative on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 3:18:28 PM

The RLX climbs toward 450 again, again testing the top of that huge gap from January.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 3:18:25 PM

The SOX and QQQQ are both bouncing back to just below their highs of 20 minutes ago, QQQQ looking slightly heavier. A failure to exceed those highs would strongly suggest that we've just seen the top of the short cycle upphase, with the indicators currently coiling in overbought territory. The 30 min cycle channel is edging up after its steep downphase, while the 60 min channel continues to point south. The current channel tops are at 37.53 for the 60 min channel and 37.60 for the 30. Below the 72 SMA at 37.38, the intraday bias will flip back negative.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 3:13:03 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 3:06:36 PM

No sell signals on the short cycle indicators yet for QQQQ, but a break of 37.38, the 72 SMA, would do it.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 3:03:14 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 3:00:06 PM

Long upper shadows on the 15-minute OEX candles, which isn't a bullish sign, but the OEX keeps climbing.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 2:56:32 PM

Ten year notes are looking to finish in positive territory, ZN futrues up 3/64 at 112 23/64 here (30 tick chart at this Link ) with TNX down .9 bps at 4.118% after failing below 4.14%-4.16% confluence. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 2:51:31 PM

The midline of the OEX's rising regression channel is now just under 569 and the next Keltner resistance above that currently being tested is at 569.23. That Keltner line has been stopping the OEX the last two times it's been tested.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 2:48:56 PM

July crude oil closed +.65 at 55.65, off its 56.75 high and 54.925 low. 50-tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 2:48:26 PM

The SOX is approaching the upside target for its inverse H&S. The 200-week sma is also above at 425.58.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 2:45:34 PM

QQQQ's pressing 37.50 now, volume running heavier, with declining shares easing back to a 1.44:1 lead. All of yesterday's range can be treated as confluence resistance, given that there were no directional moves within it, and the 60 min channel top is down to 37.55 here. The short cycle upphase has strengthened and still has room to run. It's worth noting that for all the drama and volume today, price is unchanged from yesterday's 2PM-4PM range. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 2:44:54 PM

VXN.X 30-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 2:40:33 PM

Keep an eye on the Jun $38 Calls, but I wouldn't expect much buying with zero bid. The reason you want to keep an eye on them for sudden surge in volume is if Market Maker knows he/she thinks that strike is threatened. Watch the roll-out and perhaps that July $38 Put. With oil up 2.63%, I don't think much shot of QQQQ $38.20 by Friday's close. Do you?

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 2:35:26 PM

QQQQ only change I see in the QQQQ option chain since my VXN.X al_rt is that the July $38 Puts (QQQ-SL) $0.88 have moved up to #7 most active, now with 11,181 volume.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 2:31:10 PM

The SOX rose to test the 50% retracement of its last drop, off yesterday's last little swing high. It's dropped back below that 50% level as I type, but may be rising toward the upside target of the confirmed inverse H&S from its five-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 2:29:38 PM

Doesn't look as if the OEX will close this current 15-minute period above the central Keltner resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 2:29:04 PM

QQQQ traders that might be long below $37.50, I'd consider sticking some offers out at $0.20-$0.25 in the June $38.00 Calls (QQQ-FL) into Friday's expire. Probably need 500 or more shares to be worth it though.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 2:25:22 PM

July crude oil is down to a .95 gain at 55.95.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 2:25:11 PM

The OEX burst above the mid-channel resistance on the nested Keltner charts, but is pulling back now and has not closed a 15-minute period above that resistance, currently at 566.99, with the OEX currently at 567.35. This is getting old, isn't it, except for those of you brave souls who are entering long at 566 or so, automatically exiting at 570 or so, and then doing the opposite. So far, it's still working, although I'd be worried about it right now, but I stopped recommending that tactic last week when the OEX started narrowing its range a bit. I thought trading might become even choppier than it had been and thought it wise to abstain from suggesting that readers employ that trading tactic except for the brave souls who were going to do it on their own anyway. I'm still not certain whether this spike higher is going to hold, for example, or get anywhere near 570.

Tab Gilles : 6/15/2005 2:20:20 PM

$SOX.X Last week 6/6/05 11:31 AM post I'd set a 20-ema stop. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 2:19:27 PM

QQQQ Option chain snapshots from 10:44 AM EDT Link and just before 02:00 PM EDT at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 2:19:33 PM

QQQQ punching through the 37.40-.42 resistance line here on a pickup in volume. Next resistance is 37.50 at yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 2:17:28 PM

VXN.X alert 16.00 +1.52% ...

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 2:18:34 PM

The SOX's rising regression channel off the day's low has now become defined enough that we can watch it for support and resistance. There's a hint of a narrowing of that rising regression channel, but for now, support can be found at about 420.37. The SOX is about to test the 38.2% retracement of the last part of its decline, off the last five-minute swing high from yesterday, with that FIB level at 422.20 or so. It's also possible to discern a just-confirmed inverse H&S in the SOX's bottoming formation, with an upside target near 424.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 2:12:53 PM

Volume breadth remains negative, 1.14:1 for NYSE declining shares and 1.89:1 on the Nasdaq. The current bounce seems to be tracing a rough reverse head and shoulders on the 3 min chart below 37.40-.42, but the short cycle upphase so far been getting very weak traction: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 2:11:43 PM

OEX tested Keltner resistance from 566.94-567.21 and now turns down.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 2:11:36 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 2:06:44 PM

Ten year note yields currently +.7 bps at 4.134%, off it highs. QQQQ bounced to 37.40 and is holding just below the line, the 30 min cycle downphase stalling.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 2:05:48 PM

Text of the Beige Book at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 2:05:27 PM







Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 2:02:27 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 1:51:46 PM

The RUT's 15-minute Keltner chart isn't giving many clues as to next direction. The RUT is in the middle of an array of supporting and resistance Keltner lines, in the middle of the upper half of the nested Keltner channels. CCI braids itself over and under the zero line, and RSI squiggles around the neutral 50 level.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 1:42:53 PM

QQQQ update at this Link , falling back toward the lows as volume picks up. Descending trendline support lines up with the 30 min channel bottom at 37.20- also an old confluence support/resistance level in recent weeks.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 1:42:26 PM

The OEX tests the support of its rising regression channel again. Keltner support from 564.88-565.27.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 1:32:56 PM

Fifteen-minute Keltner resistnace for the OEX is near 567, but the midline of its rising regression channel is near 568.45, with next Keltner resistance at 569.14 but still moving lower.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 1:22:02 PM

Don't forget the Beige Book, due to be released at 2PM. Ten year bonds have flipped back to negative, TNX +1.4 bps at 4.141%. Link . So far, the 4.14%-4.16% confluence has yet to be seriously challenged.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 1:18:26 PM

The OEX is doing a likely bear flag type of climb into 567, but as another writer just mentioned, we're approaching the stop-running time of day and anything could and might happen next, including a sharper rise.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 1:15:24 PM

July crude up to 56.55, +1.55. Current high 56.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 1:12:00 PM

QQQQ clears first resistance in the 37.33 aream and is now just below 37.39-.41, the next intraday confluence at Friday's lows. A short cycle upphase has kicked off, but volume is very slim on the bounce so far: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 1:10:15 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 1:04:49 PM

The OEX's climb so far looks bear flag-ish, with the OEX struggling with nearest Keltner resistance and then with 567 resistance above that.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 1:02:58 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 12:53:39 PM

Dangerous point here for short-term OEX bulls and bears, both. The OEX is managing to stay above that rising regression channel, but only barely, and it can't quite get above the Keltner resistance at 566.20 on 15-minute closes. However, the possibility of a stronger bounce remains, particularly in this environment, as does the possibility for a breakdown below that channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 12:49:58 PM

QQQQ is a few minutes away from matching yesterday's 62M share volume, breadth currently favoring declining shares 1.2:1 on the NYSE and 2.11:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ is testing first resistance now, with the short cycle indicators starting to turn up from oversold territory. It will take a move above the 72 SMA at 37.50 to stop the 30 min cycle downphase.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 12:46:21 PM

Gold is trading 10 cents off its 431.80 high, +2.40 here, and once again holding below key 432-433 confluence. HUI and XAU are up 1.45% at 194.18 and 1.67% at 89.49 respectively as the USD Index holds near its lows. July crude is up 1.05 at 56.05 here, off its 56.75 high.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 12:44:22 PM

July Heating Oil (ho05n) 1.65 +0.60% (30-min delayed) ... traded a contract high yesterday at $1.68 (prior high 04/01 & 04/04 of $1.67), but at this point, hasn't challenged yesterday's high. 60-min interval chart at this Link ... Heating Oil has been one of the "primary drivers" for crude oil's recent rise according to energy traders.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 12:39:45 PM

RUT climbing again, above the Keltner resistance at 632.01 and climbing into 633.54-634.23 resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 12:37:20 PM

July Crude (cl05n) 60-min interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 12:33:56 PM

July Crude (cl05n) $56.55 +2.81% (30-min delayed) ... pressing WEEKLY R2 ($56.76) intra-day after energy data. Some bearish divergence showing up on the 60-min chart's MACD relative to 06/02 price highs of $55.45.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2005 12:32:52 PM

Jonathan IB is Ok over here on the West Coast.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 12:30:24 PM

The OEX is again testing the bottom support of the rising regression channel off last week's low, clinging to that support. Keltner support at 565.02, resistance at 566.12 and then from 566.81-567.15.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 12:30:12 PM

Heads up for IB users: I've just lost options quotes on the east coast server.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 12:29:15 PM

Ten year notes are hovering just above unchanged, TNX currently down .2 bps at 4.125%. The US Dollar Index is holding its losses below 89, currently tracing what appears to be a "b" distribution flag above 88.70: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 12:26:28 PM

Back to find QQQQ holding at new lows, currently 37.27, with 30 min channel support down to 37.20, old confluence and recent daily S2: Link . The short cycles are oversold and lined up for a bounce, but so far volume is decreasing as price stabilizes from the last drop. Volume breadth is negative but not extreme at 2.44:1 in favor of declining volume, the TRINQ 2.16. First sign of trouble for bears will be a break above 37.33.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 12:23:43 PM

Electricity is out here, which means I've lost both my wireless connection and my desktop computer. Getting set up now on dial-up on my laptop. Back in a little while.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 12:21:51 PM

September Fed Fund futures (ff05u) 96.45 ... currently forecasting 20% probability that fed could raise rates to 3.75%. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 12:15:45 PM

RUT testing Keltner resistance at 631.92. Bears want to see continued 15-minute closes beneath this level. Bulls want to see it breached, but then 632.80-634.13 resistance awaits.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 12:13:59 PM

The OEX attempts a bounce again from Keltner support. Next resistance at 566.43 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 12:10:45 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 12:07:56 PM

The TRAN still maintains support on the rising trendline off the 6/09 low.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 12:04:44 PM

The RLX is now back inside the huge gap from January after pushing above it yesterday and then this morning. It's not too far inside it as yet, but bulls don't want to see the RLX fall too far into that gap again.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 12:02:33 PM

This morning, the RUT pierced the descending trendline off the 12/31 high, but has now dropped back below it.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 12:02:24 PM

QQQQ $37.27 -0.82% ... below DAILY S2 here. VXN.X 16.54 +5.01% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 12:01:38 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 11:59:49 AM

SOX testing mid-channel Keltner support and also testing its 200-ema, now less than a point above that average that's at 418.33. The SOX's behavior has shown as much correlation to this average as to the 200-sma over recent months, so bounce potential begins from now down to the 200-sma at 411.32. The SOX now moves into a congestion zone from March, too, so the decline might slow somewhat.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 11:55:21 AM

The OEX today continues that rounding-over look on its daily chart, now less than a point above the 100-sma at 564.92. Most candles have been closing above that MA over the last several weeks while this rounding-over process has been taking place, although there have been intraday moves below that MA.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 11:52:35 AM

QQQQ $37.31 -0.71% ... Jun $38 Calls (QQQ-FL) are no bid, offer $0.05. Volume benchmark is 34,453 and most active option at this point. #2 is the Jun $38 put (QQQ-RL) $0.75 with 27,333.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 11:51:36 AM

It's possible to draw the ascending bottom support line on the RUT's rising wedge shape differently than I've drawn it, with a best-fit version that leaves out some candle shadows. If drawn that way, the RUT has only bounced back up to retest the trendline rather than bounced back inside the wedge. The RUT is tentatively turning down from that test.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 11:47:46 AM

OEX coming down to test support, down to 565.15 on a Keltner basis. A 15-minute close beneath that suggests a decline to the next target at 561.74, but be careful because we're seeing a number of fake-out moves today.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 11:46:32 AM

RLX testing 447.60 Keltner support, with the RLX at 447.76 as I type. A 15-minute close beneath that level suggests a decline to 444.60-445.00.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 11:41:19 AM

The TRAN tests the bottom support of its trading pattern since it attempting to move off the June 9 low. The slightly ascending line off that low is now at about 3499.70, with the TRAN currently at 3503.99.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 11:37:07 AM

The OEX continues that rounding-over look on its daily chart.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 11:36:47 AM

The RLX is well off its high of the day, back below 450, retesting the top of that huge gap from January. Yesterday, it closed above that gap for the first time since January.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 11:36:16 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 11:33:43 AM

The OEX is bouncing toward 566.92-567.84 Keltner resistance, but does it in a tepid way so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 11:29:29 AM

A large 2M+ share buy program on QQQQ from daily S2, with the short cycle indicators looking bottomy and trying to turn. Link

I need to step away for one hour here.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 11:29:04 AM

RUT tests the Keltner line currently at 632.08 with the RUT at 632.04 and not yet closed a 15-minute period above that line.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 11:25:16 AM

10 Most Actives ... QQQQ $37.41 -0.22%, INTC $26.42 -1.04%, SPY $120.54 -0.26%, SMH $33.78 -1.17%, MSFT $25.27 -0.35%, ORCL $12.37 -0.88%, CSCO $19.15 -0.15%, JDSU $1.52 -2.56%, SIRI $5.84 -0.84%, LU $2.89 -0.68%

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 11:18:00 AM

The RUT bounced right back above the bottom support of its rising wedge, just after it dropped right back below the top resistance after breaking through that. False breakouts both directions. What are you going to trust? As long as the RUT produces 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 631.99, it remains vulnerable to more tests of that lower support.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 11:13:03 AM

The OEX is bouncing from the bottom of its rising regression channel and from Keltner support. It's currently testing 565.99 Keltner resistance, just above it but not having closed a 15-minute period above it. The next Keltner resistance is at 567.23-567.57.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 11:09:52 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 11:08:20 AM

Declining volume 1.7 times advancing volume on the NYSE, and 2.4x advancing on the Nasdaq. The TRIN has risen above 1 but still neutral, while the TRINQ is up to 1.95. NDX volatility (QQV) is up a mere .30 to 15.00.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 11:04:19 AM

RUT now minimally below the bottom of the rising wedge on its 15-minute chart. Keltner-wise, a test of 628.20 is suggested as long as the RUT continues closing 15-minute periods below a line currently at 631.93. A 15-minute close beneath 628 suggests a downside target just above 622.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 11:02:03 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 11:02:03 AM

The OEX now approaches the 565.26 Keltner channel first target on the 15-minute chart. Bears should have profit-protecting plans in place for this test, as it's also a test of the rising regression channel off last week's low. A bounce here might be anticipated, but a 15-minute close below 565.24 would set a new target of 561.74.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 10:59:35 AM

Session high for July crude oil here 56.55, +1.55.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 10:56:08 AM

TRIN 1.00 +4.21% ... session high here. QQQQ $37.38 SPY 120.35 VIX.X 11.83 +0.33% VXN.X 16.43 +4.31% ... 16.50 is where I was looking for some "inverse" option action to take place.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 10:51:32 AM

QQQQ isn't bouncing from below 30 and 60 min channel support, and the huge surge in volume is suggestive of trending strength. Against that bearish interpretation is the fact that this is op-ex week, and without QQQQ violating either of its near strikes (37-38), there's a better than average chance that this will reverse yet again. Currently, Friday's lows are being tested and nominally broken, and the outlook remains bearish below yesterday's 37.50 low. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 10:50:19 AM

On a traditional chart, the SOX is currently approaching a test of the 200-ema at 418.33 with the 200-sma at 411.32.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 10:46:23 AM

The OEX is now below 567 on a 15-minute close, setting a tentative first downside target of 565.39.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 10:45:35 AM

Daily Keltner support for the SOX from 416.07-418.61, with the SOX currently at 420.47.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 10:41:46 AM

Swing trade long alert for the QQQQ $37.46 -0.31% here, stop $37.10, target $39.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 10:41:11 AM





Jane Fox : 6/15/2005 10:40:48 AM

If you aren't doing anything else this is worth the read

Dateline WSJ If the idea wasn't so incompatible with overwhelming global sentiment, one might almost pity OPEC for its diminished power over oil prices.

The oil ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, meeting in Vienna today, were preparing to announce an increase in their daily production ceiling of 500,000 barrels, which would raise the cartel's output ceiling to 28 million barrels a day. But as The Wall Street Journal notes, it is a mostly symbolic attempt to nudge petroleum prices below $50 a barrel. In fact, worried in recent weeks over its inability to push oil prices lower, OPEC was considering increasing the group's production quotas by one million barrels a day, the New York Times reports, citing Edmond Daukoru, Nigeria's presidential adviser on petroleum. But changes to its quotas will only bring OPEC theory further in line with production reality. As Cambridge Energy Research Associates reports, spare production capacity for crude -- globally -- is hovering in the range of 1.5 million barrels a day to two million barrels a day, "which means that a large supply disruption could leave the world with little to no spare capacity."

That lack of spare capacity is only exacerbated by what CERA projects will be "a strong price environment" based on annual growth in global demand of 1.8 million barrels a day in 2005 and 1.7 million barrels a day in 2006. These growth rates, while a bit slower than earlier CERA projections, are well above the 10-year average of 1.4 million barrels a day. And with a refining capacity shortage that allows refiners to enjoy a significant margin, "OPEC defense of high prices" if they should fall too much is a key reason that CERA continues to expect oil prices to stay above $50 the rest of this year. The chances that prices could trend lower for the first time since mid-2003 are helped by a predicted deceleration in the growth of Chinese demand, what CERA calls the single most important element of a high price environment. "A less torrid rise in fixed-asset investment and slower gains in oil consumption from the power generation sector are moderating Chinese oil demand growth," CERA says.

It is the fast-growing economies of China, India and others in Asia that are largely responsible for the 4.3% surge in world energy consumption last year, the largest percentage rise since 1984 and the largest volume increase ever, according to an annual statistical review by British petroleum giant BP and cited by the Financial Times. China's fuel consumption rose by 15.1% and India's by 7.2%, the FT says. The paper adds that the burning of fossil fuels at a faster rate has also resulted in the largest absolute increase in carbon emissions, which add to the stock of "greenhouse gases" blamed for global warming. A partial effect of the increase in oil revenues is that emerging-market countries are about to become net creditors in the global financial system for the first time since the asset class was created, the FT reports, citing data from Fitch Ratings. This milestone, the FT notes, coincides with a record current account deficit in the U.S.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 10:34:46 AM

SOX approaching daily Keltner support.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 10:33:42 AM

Crude oil +.80 at 55.80, off a high of 56.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 10:33:21 AM





Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 10:33:04 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,202.49, DIA $105.39, QQQQ $37.47.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 10:33:03 AM

Volume breadth goes negative on goth exchanges on this steep high-volume selloff, 1.8:1 for declining Nasdaq volume and 1.02:1 for declining NYSE volume. The TRIN is neutral at .83, TRINQ just entering sell territory at 1.36.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 10:31:59 AM

OEX testing mid-channel Keltner support and historical 567 support. Still testing. A 15-minute close below 567 would suggest a downside target of 565.43.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 10:30:53 AM

RUT dropping below key Keltner support.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2005 10:30:21 AM

AD volume is now following AD line down. Today the line took precedence over the volume but it is not always that way.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2005 10:29:14 AM

VIX and TRIN to new daily highs as ES makes new daily lows. This is just the way it should be.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 10:24:44 AM

RUT slipping a bit below the Keltner support on the 15-minute chart but still within testing range.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 10:21:02 AM

Stepping away for a couple of minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 10:19:01 AM

QQQQ right back at $37.62.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 10:19:01 AM

Bears want to see the OEX produce 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner lines currently at 567.22, setting up a potential move down toward 565.52. They should have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of that level, if it's reached. Perhaps those plans should allow for a further drop in the OEX. If the OEX instead bounces, be wary of that potential 570 level, and perhaps any bulls should have plans for a potential move above that level.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 10:16:57 AM

Big sell volume came in on the break below 72 SMA support, and QQQQ is now below 30 min channel support, volume breadth down to just north of flat, 1.11:1 for advancing volume. Updated chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 10:18:05 AM

QQQQ/NDX Option Chain same sort order as shown late yesterday at this Link ... OI in the $38 puts fell by roughly 4,000 while OI in the $38 calls increased by roughly 3,000.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2005 10:15:00 AM

VIX continues to make new daily highs as ES makes new daily lows. Very orderly.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 10:13:58 AM

The RUT is testing that Keltner support. Bulls need this to hold, or the RUT could tumble through the rising regression channel to test support near the bottom of that channel. That support looks flimsier than the support now being tested.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 10:12:19 AM

Jane, earlier QCharts was showing the advdecv steady, not really moving up or down. Still does.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 10:11:22 AM

On a daily Keltner basis, the SOX looks vulnerable to the 419-420-ish level, if I'm remembering correctly from yesterday's posts. My charting application doesn't want to give me that chart today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 10:09:51 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 10:09:48 AM

Sharp selling in INTC, breaking 26.70 support and at a session low of 26.60 here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 10:08:51 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 10:08:11 AM

SOX dropping, now firmly below the 200-week sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 10:08:01 AM

Crude oil reopens, currently +.75 at 55.75.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2005 10:07:40 AM

Linda does Qcharts show the AdcDec volume falling as well? My TS shows the line and volume going in opposite directions.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 10:06:47 AM

The TRAN often moves big prior to the release of the inventories numbers, sometimes reversing that first movement and sometimes continuing it. Today, the upside move was relatively muted by TRAN standards.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 10:05:58 AM

Advdec line still dropping.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 10:04:48 AM

RUT closing this morning's gap, but about to test Keltner support at 633.16-633.57 that looks relatively firm. Needs to hold above that support or market participants will question whether the apparent upside breakout out of the rising wedge shape was a fake-out move and drive the RUT below the support of that wedge, now at about 630.70.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 10:04:42 AM

QQQQ is holding in a tight range at the bottom of the morning's drop, with 72 SMA support up to 37.70. The 30 min cycle upphase has yet to stall, and volume breadth, while weaker, remains positive at 1.82:1 on the Nasdaq. A break below that 37.70 would change the picture considerably. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 10:01:45 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 10:00:18 AM

Lately, the OEX has narrowed its range from about 567 to about 570. A decline below 570 would be a move below mid-channel Kelnter support and the midline of the OEX's rising regression channel, and would suggest a decline toward 565.42, the bottom of that channel and next Keltner support. Some hints of bearish divergence with respect to approaches to the top of that rising regression channel hint that the OEX might take a turn through the bottom of the channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 9:57:33 AM

The Fed has just announced an 8.75B overnight repo to replace the 7B expiring from yesterday, for a net 1.75B add for the day.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 9:57:32 AM

Like Keene, I show the RUT as having gapped above a rising trendline this morning, with that trendline describing the top of a (bearish?) rising wedge on my chart. The RUT is dropping back to test that trendline now. Strange stuff going on in the markets.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 9:55:41 AM

The action of the advdec line certainly doesn't seem to be supporting these gains, does it? Oh, I see Jane has just posted an explanation--advdec volume line is climbing by her measure, although it doesn't look particularly strong as QCharts has it drawn.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 9:54:00 AM

The TRAN gapped higher and climbed this morning, but is retracing part of this morning's gains. The climb was within the parameters of the formation that could be a bear flag after last week's steep decline. The TRAN remains between the 200-ema's support and the 200-sma's presumed resistance. No particular clarity here.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 9:51:28 AM

RLX trying to higher again. The RLX may be key to OEX behavior today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 9:51:26 AM

VIX.X 11.43 -3.05% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.22, 11.43, Piv = 11.72, 11.93, 12.22.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 9:50:51 AM

Despite the downside reversal in bonds after the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data, gold is holding its gains and mining stocks are strong- August gold up 1.10 at 430.40, HUI +1.72% at 194.69 and XAU +1.4% at 89.25. Crude oil closed the morning session +.50 at 55.50.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 9:49:47 AM

Bulls are going to grow wary of sending the OEX up toward 570 if it doesn't finally break through and maintain values above that. So far today, it's turning down right on schedule after nearly hitting that value. So far, though, it remains in the upper, and bullish, half of its rising regression channel and nested Keltner channels. A mixture of evidence.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 9:50:10 AM

Symantec (SYMC) $21.94 +3.68% ... strong out of the gate. The software security firm announced that Symanted Managed Security Services now includes Symantec Vulnerability Data Correlation Services. The company feels this new enhancement will help organizations more efficiently manage security risk by correlating vulnerability data with attacks, to meet regulatory compliance requirements, and keep business up and running.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 9:46:20 AM

SOX retreating, too, and the OEX hit 569.82, just under the key 570 level before pulling back during the first 15-minute period. May be coming up for another try.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 9:44:58 AM

RLX retreating off its high of the day, but still in breakout mode on the 15-minute Keltner channels.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 9:46:47 AM

Chiron (CHIR) $26.99 -28.88% ... sharply lower after the company warned it will produce fewer flu vaccines than previously announced due to manufacturing delays at its Liverpool facility. The company said it now plans to produce 18-26 million doses of the Fluvirin vaccine for the 2005-06 season, down from a previous forecast of 25-30 million doses. As a result, CHIR now expects 2005 earnings of $0.86 to $1.11 per share, or $1.20-$1.45 per share on adjusted basis. Prior forecast for 2005 was $1.06-$1.16, or operating profit of $1.40-$1.50 per share.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 9:41:38 AM

Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 531.42 -1.76% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 9:40:34 AM

A short cycle downphase is due, with preliminary sell signals in that timeframe printing on QQQQ: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 9:39:40 AM

SOX about to face 428.13 Keltner resistance, 433.90-ish modest historical resistance just above that. There's some hint of an inverse H&S trying to build, neckline near the current 427.36 level, with a right shoulder still to be formed, so a shallow pullback from that Keltner resistance would be in keeping with that formation. That would be in keeping with the typical first retracement of the day, too, but the depth and shape of that pullback might tell us something about how much oomph the bulls really have.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 9:36:49 AM

The RLX gapped higher this morning, in breakout mode on Keltner channels from the 15-minute to the daily. There's some modest historical resistance at about 453.50-454.00, with the RLX currently at 452.97.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 9:37:29 AM

Pulte Home (PHM) $80.98 +2.05% Link ... surging to a new all-time high! Spread triple-top here.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 9:34:00 AM

Volume breadth is strongly positive here, 3.58:1 for NYSE advancing shares and 4.36:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ is pulling back from the upside keltner violation on the 30 and 60 min channels, but needs to break 37.68, the current 72 SMA, to stall the 30 min cycle upphase.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 9:33:52 AM

The top of the ascending regression channel in which the OEX has been moving off last week's low is at about 570.85, with Keltner resistance at 569.95.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 9:31:53 AM

OEX moving up, too, toward 569.90 Keltner resistance.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 9:31:06 AM

SOX moving up this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 9:23:22 AM

Headlines :




Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 9:18:33 AM

Bonds have made a u-turn, now negative with TNX up 1.2 bps to 4.139%, at the start of confluence resistance from 4.14%-4.16%.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 9:17:39 AM

The strong move higher, breaking yesterday's QQQQ high, has the 30 min cycle in a sharp upphase and the 60 min cycle downphase in the process of stalling out. The daily cycle downphase is still in progress, but won't be for long if today prints another higher low. QQQQ bulls have resistance to 38.10, with the past week's bounces capped below that level.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2005 9:14:12 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $6.58 and set for program selling at $3.87.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 8:56:14 AM

Yesterday, the OEX got slapped back again when it rose to test 570. The daily chart still shows a rounding-over aspect, a bearish formation if it continues. It's possible to draw a half circle above the trading pattern since early May. If the OEX closes above 570, it will somewhat question that rounding over, depending on how high over 570 it closes.

The SOX shows a similar formation, perhaps more readily visible on its 60-minute chart. The SOX closed right on the important 200-week sma after closing above that average for two weeks, so this is important bounce-or-fail territory for the SOX. The RUT has surprised market watchers, rising high, but rising within a (usually bearish) rising wedge formation. The RLX zoomed higher, too, but the TRAN dawdled near recent lows, between the 200-sma and -ema's. The RLX zoomed in advance of today's numbers, so now is there a building on that zoom or is it done now and will there be a sell-the-news reaction? Do you see any clarity in this muddle? I don't. Not yet. There's absolutely no clarity on intraday charts, either. On a tradition basis, the OEX spent most of yesterday, with the exception of that quickly reversed spike higher, moving sideways along the midline of its rising regression channel, rising off last week's low. It also trades along the mid-channel level on Keltner channels from the 15-minute up to the daily Keltner charts. Selling the top of that rising regression channel and buying the bottom might be the only game around, as long as you adhere to quick stops if wrong, although it's not a game I feel comfortable playing this deep into the broadening formation, as movements become more unpredictable. Right now, the OEX closed in the middle of that channel, so I don't see a play at the open. Futures are higher. If there's follow-through at the open, the OEX may test the 569-570 level--but watch the RLX. However, if one is tempted to automatically entered a put position today on a test of the 570 level, be very sure that internals or chart conditions support your decision, and be sure you know where your stops should be and adhere to them in case today is the day the OEX finally breaks out. If the OEX drops to the bottom of the rising regression channel, be sure to check market internals, be sure that a bounce is occurring rather than blindly entering a bullish play on hopes of bounce. With all positions, know how you'll deal with the 2:00 release of the Fed's Beige Book.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 8:36:09 AM

OPEC lifted its production limit by the widely anticipated 500,000 bpd to 28M bpd. Estimates place current actual OPEC production at 30M bpd, and the market appears unimpressed with the results of the meeting so far, with July crude holding +.475 at 55.475.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 8:33:20 AM

Empire State Index 11.6 vs. 1.0 exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 8:32:56 AM

Ten year notes are up on the news, TNX -2.9 bps at 4.098%, ditto equities, QQQQ +.25 at 37.83 and gold, +1.50 at a session high of 430.80. ES is trading 1213.25, off a high of 1213.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 8:31:39 AM












Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 8:26:49 AM

Addendum to my 8:02:35 post. Here's the full report as posted on the Mortgage Bankers Association website. In particular, the Purchase Index reached a record high. The Refi Index rose 25.6%:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (June 15, 2005) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 10. The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume - was 887.0, an increase of 17.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 755.5 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 29.2 percent compared with last week and was up 46.1 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index increased by 10.4 percent to 529.3, a record high, from 479.3 the previous week whereas the seasonally-adjusted Refinance Index increased by 25.6 percent to 2967.4 from 2362.1 one week earlier.

"This week there was a combination of record-setting purchase activity as well as a substantial pickup in refinance applications, with the refinance index at its highest level since April 2004," said Michael Fratantoni, senior director of single-family research and economics.

Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which increased 18.0 percent to 1339.8 from 1135.1 the previous week, and the Government Index, which increased 7.7 percent to 131.3 from 121.9 the previous week.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 46.4 percent of total applications from 42.9 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 30.9 percent of total applications from 31.7 percent the previous week.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 8:23:42 AM

Ten year notes are printing a session high with TNX giving back part of yesterday's gains, TNX -2 bps at 4.107%. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 8:02:34 AM

Mortgage apps were strong int eh latest week, with the MBA reporting that its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity rose 17.4% to 887, following the previous week's 6.5% gain.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/15/2005 7:42:40 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1210, NQ 1539.5, YM 10592 and QQQQ +.09 at 37.67. Gold is down 20 cents to 429.10, silver +.009 at 7.286, ten year notes +7/64 at 112 33/64 and crude oil is up 45 cents to 55.45.

We await the 8:30 release of the Empire State Index, est. 1.0, CPI and Core CPI, est. .1% and .2% respectively, Business Inventories, est. .4%, and at 9:15, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, est. .2% and 79.3% respectively. At 2PM, we get the Fed's Beige Book.

Linda Piazza : 6/15/2005 6:55:09 AM

Good morning. Last night, the Nikkei hit its highest close since mid-April, but other Asian markets were mixed. European markets trade cautiously in positive territory. Our futures have traded sideways to slightly higher overnight and are modestly positive as of this writing. As of 6:39 EST, gold was down $0.50, and crude, up $0.58 to $55.58. More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei coiled in positive territory in early trading Wednesday, climbed again in the afternoon session, but dropped off its highs in the last few minutes of trading. The Nikkei still managed a gain of 79.96 points or 0.71%, and a close at 11,415.88, its highest close since mid-April. Exporters were still being boosted by recent currency moves strengthening the dollar against the yen. Banks benefited after the Financial Services Agency reported that regional banks reached the first net profit in five years during the year ending in March and when Nikko Citigroup Ltd. raised Japanese banks to a bullish rating. A newspaper also speculated that the four largest regional banks would see an expansion in housing loans during the April-September period. Investors in Japanese securities received mixed evidence from a Merrill Lynch survey, with that survey showing that global investors favor Japanese stocks more than those of any other global market but that the number willing to hold overweight positions fell 18% from May's number. Oil exporters dropped in early trading.

After the close, the Japanese government upgraded its forecast for the economy. Although real wage earners' household spending dropped, the government reiterated its view that consumer spending will increase, and saw an improvement in employment conditions. The government thought that the recovery would be moderate, in line with former forecasts, but changed another part of the statement to read that there are signs that the economy might be emerging from weakness. No rate change resulted. Rumors are that the Bank of Japan two-day meeting, just concluded, saw members voting against two proposals for lowering the current account target, with speculation lately that the central bank might lower that target.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.75%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.85%. Singapore's Straits Times was flat, down 0.01%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.07%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 1.89%. In China, value-added industrial production rose at a much-higher-than-expected 16.6% in May, renewing fears that the economy may be overheating. Some reports indicated that the government was considering renewed measures to support the stock market, but the authenticity of those reports was questioned and stocks did not benefit.

Some European markets trade cautiously ahead of U.S. economic numbers this morning. Crude is also back above $55.00 this morning as an OPEC decision on increased production is awaited. The auto trade association ACEA reported European automobile registrations falling 1.7% in May, with a strike among Italian car transporters being partly responsible for the drop. Fiat fell, but other car manufacturers' stocks were showing mixed performances. Philips Electronics N.V. gave a profit warning, but the warning hasn't seemed to impact the broader markets. AstraZeneca dropped after a report that the company will likely be fined and censured for illegal efforts to extend patent protection for Losec, a stomach ulcer medication, with AstraZeneca and some of its peers dropping as a result of that report. Goldman Sachs downgraded Italian oil group ENI to an in-line rating after a recent 10% run-up in stock value and a change in management.

Online gaming company PartyGaming PLC plans for its IPO to begin trading June 30, with conditional trading to begin earlier, on June 27. If the current pricing of 111-127 pence per share, holds, the company's capitalization would qualify it for the FTSE 100 index.

As of 6:45 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 0.10 points or 0.00%, at 5,046.90. The CAC 40 was higher by 9.32 points or 0.22%, at 4,207.06. The DAX had climbed 5.45 points or 0.12%, to 4,597.14.

Market Monitor Archives