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Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 11:42:43 PM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.22 and set for program selling at $+4.04.

OI Technical Staff : 6/16/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 9:39:36 PM

Quite a few small energy producers showing up on the % gainer list. Sniffing a "bubble?" -- Don't sink all your funds in one well. If you hit dust, you can go bust. - Ray Pashuck, Rocky Mountain Exploration/Production Manager, Mobil Oil Corp.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 6:20:21 PM

Sector Bell Curve since 05/27/05 when the SPX Bullish % ($BPSPX) Link reversed up at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 5:35:32 PM

Wednesday-to-Wednesday sector bell curve at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 5:28:58 PM

Pivot Matrix for Friday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 4:53:58 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 4:43:22 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 4:39:38 PM

Adobe Systems (ADBE) $32.41 +1.28% ... lower at $30.55 after company reported Q2 net income of $149.8 million or $0.29 a share, up from $109.4 million, or $0.22 per share. Stock lower after company said a shareholder has filed lawsuit against it related to plans to acquire Macromedia Inc. The suit alleges breach of fiduciary duty in light of Macromedia's recent restatement of past results. Adobe official say they will defend the matter "vigorously," and expects the deal to close later this fall.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 4:34:20 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity Sold Naked five (5) of the SPX June 1,220 Calls (SZP-FD) at $0.25.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 4:24:25 PM

Most Active ETF's today ... QQQQ, SPY, SMH, IWM, XLE, EWJ, DIA, OIH, EFA, XLF

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 4:03:45 PM

The OEX did close above 570, but now enough above it that we can say that the OEX has definitively broken above its recent consolidation pattern. That would have come if the OEX had closed above recent spikes up to 571.12 or so. The OEX's close above 570 would have been more convincing if the Dow had also closed a 10,600. Still, the SPX has broken out, closing above recent highs.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 4:09:23 PM

Satellite Radio CNBC- Canada allows both XMSR and SIRI satellite broadcast radio licenses.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 3:57:40 PM

The RUT's climb has been amazing. For those who know about record sessions on candlestick charting (basically measures when a trend is becoming extended), the RUT's 30-minute chart shows that the RUT is approaching time for another pullback, possibly first thing tomorrow morning. Of course, the last 30-minute "pullback" consisted of a single red candle.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 3:51:52 PM

Remember, new traders, that June SPX options stop trading this afternoon and the settlement value is determined tomorrow morning, after all SPX component stocks have opened. New OEX traders will note that June OEX options trade through tomorrow, with settlement value determined based on how component stocks close tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 3:50:57 PM

GMXR $13.72

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 3:55:09 PM

As James Cramer would say ... "for those of you playing the "home game," this is what I'm doing with GMXR and GMXRW and warrant Level II observation. Link ... Stock on top, Warrants on the bottom.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 3:50:09 PM

RUT, SML, OIX (no surprise) and RLX seem to be among the indices leading the breakouts, Keltner-wise, on the daily charts, with the Wilshire not far behind. Other indices are far behind on a Keltner basis, and the TRAN is far from taking its usual leadership role.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 3:47:34 PM

Volume breadth remains positive 2.49:1 on the NYSE and 2.63:1 on the Nasdaq, with volume running light on QQQQ at 80M shares compared with 104M total yesterday. Today has coincided with a 30 min cycle downphase that has run half its range with very poor traction against an ongoing but toppy 60 min cycle upphase. All this is occurring within the daily cycle downphase, which is approaching oversold territory and appears to be weakening. Today's higher high and higher low following yesterday's doji star didn't help. 30 and 60 min cycle resistance line up at 38.00, and so long as that level is not exceeded, today's chop would most likely be the sideways range we often see as the 60 min cycle makes its turn.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 3:43:34 PM

The MID is also an index pushing higher into the close.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 3:41:57 PM

The RUT is also pushing higher into the close.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 3:39:57 PM

The Wilshire 5000 is now at 12,031.28, above the 12/31 high, moving closer to the 3/07 high of 12,108.93, but not there yet.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 3:36:18 PM

Next Keltner 30-minute resistance at 571.01-571.46, with the rising regression channel's upper resistance at about 572.15.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 3:34:54 PM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) larger caps at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 3:34:32 PM

QQQQ breaking above the old intraday support, now back above it. 30 and 60 min channel support line up at 38: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 3:28:09 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 3:26:35 PM

The Wilshire 5000 is moving toward its HOD, about 6 points below it now, and toward the 12/31 swing high of 12,027.54, about five and a half points below that now.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 3:22:50 PM

If the OEX should close above 570 today, that will be the first time since March 15 that it's closed above that level.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 3:20:49 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 3:20:09 PM

VIX.X 11.19 -2.35% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 3:19:31 PM

There's $0.30

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 3:18:25 PM

SPX.X 1,211

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 3:18:05 PM

Entry point alert filled on five (5) of the SPX June 1,220 Calls (SZP-FD) at $0.25. Bid $0.20 x $0.30.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 3:17:14 PM

The SOX is struggling today with daily Keltner resistance at 429.35. Although it moved above that resistance today, it's below it currently. The SOX's Keltner picture is unclear, because it did break down out of its formation, but bounced quickly yesterday, but now it can't maintain values above that Keltner line. Still testing it.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 3:15:53 PM

The CBOE put to call ratio has risen from its opening low of .54 to its current .90 readings, with QQV down to 13.83 and VXO at 10.82. The high put to call ratio combined with low volatility suggests puts being aggressively sold, but op-ex distorts the interpretation of these indicators more than usual. QQQQ has surpassed the 72 SMA here and is now testing broken rising trendline support from below for the second time since breaking below it: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 3:11:52 PM

Nothing over $0.20 at this point on the SPX 1,220 Calls (SZP-FD) and offer now at $0.20. Bid still $0.15. SPX 1,210.16

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 3:03:27 PM

IB and PCQuote now report TNX down 3.9 bps at 4.076%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 3:03:07 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 3:02:44 PM

Earlier, I posted a 30-minute OEX nested Keltner chart with the rising regression channel overlaid on the Keltner channels. Upper resistance on the channels is 570.80-571.37 while the upper resistance of the rising regression channel is 572. On each recent approach to the top of that rising regression channel, the OEX has stopped further away from that channel and turned down, one form of bearish divergence, but this time, it didn't fall all the way through the channel before rising again, so there's evidence of more strength today measured against recent bearish divergence. This is a long way of saying that if recent patterns are repeated, the OEX won't rise all the way to 572, but that we can't guarantee that recent patterns will continue.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 3:00:09 PM

Day trade sell naked call alert ... sell five (5) of the S&P 500 Index SPX Jun 1,220 Calls (SZP-FD) at the offer of $0.25. SPX 1,210.16 here.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 2:57:27 PM

And the OEX tests 570 again.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 2:56:33 PM

QQQQ continues to hold below the 72 SMA, actually right on it, and the short cycle indicators are starting to turn up. A break above 37.90 should be enough to confirm a new short cycle upphase. Note that so far, QQQQ has made a higher high and higher low for the day- not good for the daily cycle downphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 2:51:30 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $101.95 +2.78% ... up strong after "disappointing" earnings. There had been talk several weeks ago that their oil trading desk might have been "sideways" as oil prices declined.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 2:49:27 PM

Formations morph into other formations, without much movement overall. This is the reason that I said earlier that I thought it possible that the OEX could roll down through its rising regression channel, but that I just wasn't sure how likely it would be. The OEX bounces from the midline of its rising regression channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 2:42:16 PM

QQQQ breaks back above the horizontal trnedline at 37.76 and is now testing the 72 SMA at 37.85. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 2:41:13 PM

Session high for ZN futures at 112 21/32, with TNX up 6.9 bps at 4.184%. Still no resolution to the discrepancy between the futures and the cash quoted yield. The 7-10 treasury i-share, IEF, is up .19 at 86.10, also suggesting that the TNX quote is wrong.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 2:38:12 PM

Pin-them-to-the-numbers action? Perhaps. The OEX clings to the midline of its rising regression channel. It's spent some time there today without ever completing a 15-minute close below that midline.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 2:36:15 PM

Payless Shoe (PSS) $19.19 -0.46% Link ... JP Morgan still "neutral" after initiating coverage on 03/14/05.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 2:34:11 PM

IB reports that Nymex July crude oil closed +1 at 56.575, off a high of 56.875 and a low of 55.15.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 2:35:56 PM

PetSmart (PETM) $31.43 +1.32% Link ... as stock has pulled into its 200-day SMA, JP Morgan initiates coverage with "neutral" rating.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 2:31:29 PM

Wilshire at 12,001.55. Still holding 12,000 so far, but barely.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 2:28:52 PM

GMX Resources (GMXR) $13.29 +7.96% ...

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 2:28:28 PM

OEX slipping below 30-minute former support at 569.46, although it hasn't closed a 30-minute period there. It's testing the midline of its rising regression channel.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 2:27:59 PM

GMX Resources Warrants (GMXRW) $2.34 +47.16% ... disclosure ... I currently hold bullish position. Targeting $3.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 2:22:11 PM

Volume breadth has weakened but remains positive, 1.81:1 for advancing NYSE volume, 1.96:1 on the Nasdaq, TRIN .84, TRINQ .76, rising with neutral territory.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 2:21:59 PM

OEX trading has been choppy and sometimes unpredictable the last week, with stalling prices punctuated by sudden moves. That's especially risky for those of our subscribers who tend to trade front-month positions. So far, as I've mentioned several times over a several-week period, selling 570 and buying 566 have continued to be good trades as long as the trader automatically exited at the opposite side of that range. However, chart signals have been less clear as opex week approached, and I'm always concerned about the welfare of our readers. I was once the person out there buying (too many) front-month options, seeing my premium evaporate during opex week, even when markets went my direction. I don't want that to happen to readers. If you're entering positions, especially if they're in June options, either do so with positions small enough that the money can be lost without great regret (we always have a little regret, don't we) or else set a stop based on a decay in option price and not on position of stock.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 2:21:48 PM

Day trade cancel SPX naked call setup alert ... (from 11:55:57)

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 2:21:26 PM

QQQQ breaks horizontal support after failing at the 72 SMA, coming in for a retest of the 37.68-.70 channel and daily pivot support: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 2:20:16 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 2:15:22 PM

GMXRW $2.33 +46.54% ... action at the offer

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 2:14:23 PM

Session high for crude oil here at 56.80, +1.225.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 2:13:25 PM

TNX is down to a 6.8 bp gain at 4.183%, despite ZN making a session high just now at 112 21/32. It must be bad data, but it's persisting on several different platforms. I'm inclined to follow the futures quotes, which suggest that this tall upside spike in the TNX is incorrect.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 2:10:24 PM

The OEX travels sideways above the 15-minute Keltner S/R currently at 569.71. It's holding above 30-minute support, however, at least so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 2:08:43 PM

QQQQ bounces from horizontal support test the 72 SMA and broken intraday rising support line from below: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 2:08:35 PM

Plug Power (PLUG) $7.14 +1.27% ... announces the sale of 12 GenCore backup fuel cell systems to the Florida Dept. of Environmental Protection. As a result of purchase, Plug Power will now be listed as a supplier of backup power for the state of Florida, enabling all state agencies to procure and deploy GenCore systems.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 2:05:36 PM

Discrepancy between the TNX, currently quoted by IB and PcQuote +7.4 bps at 4.189%, and the ZN5U contract, +7/32 at 112 19/32 on ECbot. ZN should be down a lot instead of up with the TNX quoted +7.4 bps.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 2:09:11 PM

I think it's possible that the OEX is going to roll down through its rising regression channel again, but I'm just not sure how likely that might be. As I said earlier, there are just too many things working against an automatic assumption that a new bearish position near 570 is a good thing to enter.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 2:02:58 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link ... pretty sure TNX.X at 40.93, (not 41.93)

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 2:03:49 PM

Big upside move in the TNX since Hoenig started speaking, TNX up 7.9 bps at 4.194% and cruising straight past 4.14-4.16% and 4.18% resistance. Next lines are at 4.2% and 4.2%. Daily bollinger resistance is at 4.201%. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 2:00:26 PM

Headlines:

HOENIG: FED SHOULDN'T TRY TO MANAGE YIELD CURVE

HOENIG: HOW FAST FED GOES TO NEUTRAL DEPENDS ON DATA

HOENIG: FED POLICY AIMED AT GETTING TO NEUTRAL LEVEL

HOENIG: EXPERTS PUT NEUTRAL FUNDS RATE IN 3.5-4.5% ZONE

HOENIG: INFLATION IN WATCHFUL, NOT WARNING STAGE

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 1:59:05 PM

The Wilshire 5000 testing 12,000 again, at 12,001.81 as I type. It's coiling into a neutral triangle, it appears.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 1:56:39 PM

The OEX's formation is now beginning to look a little like a bearish right triangle, five minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 1:54:21 PM

QQQQ breaking 1st rising intraday support: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 1:52:53 PM

OEX Opition Chain at this Link ... as messed up as QCharts' title are. Looks like some good trades here the past 5-days, but only so much this analyst can stay on top of.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 1:52:03 PM

Looks as if the OEX's potential inverse H&S might be fizzling out. If the OEX drops much further than its current 569.52 and isn't quickly reversed with a strong bounce, it will have invalidated the formation.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 1:50:36 PM

For those of you not reading both sides of the Monitor, you might check out Jane's 1:44 post, in which she talks about an add-on program she uses to set all the parameters of her trades after she sets the entry point.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 1:49:06 PM

So what's your forecast, Jeff? (See Jeff's 1:45 post.) I remember once when you took a look at the (then) VIX and said, "Market's going to bounce now," and the 2003 bounce seemed to start simultaneously, while I was holding on for the five more OEX downside points that the P&F chart told me the OEX was going to achieve! LOL.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 1:47:04 PM

If this weren't the afternoon of an opex Thursday and if the advdedv line weren't rising, it might be worth a try at a bearish OEX position here as the OEX retests the 570 level, but it is an opex Thursday afternoon, and the advdecv line is still climbing. That advdecv line can reverse quickly, but there's also a hint of an inverse H&S with a descending neckline on the OEX's 15-minute chart, at the top of the climb. Although I don't trust those formations to meet their upside targets, and although the OEX's 30-minute chart tells me that the OEX is going to hit strong resistance at about 571.26 anyway, there are just too many things arguing against an automatic hit of this 570 level with a bearish play.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 1:46:04 PM

Volume breadth 2.13:1 positive for the NYSE, 2.77:1 for the Nasdaq with the TRIN at .76, TRINQ .62, both in neutral territory.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 1:45:26 PM

Linda ... did you notice that the VXO.X traded multi year lows this morning?

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 1:42:01 PM

10 Most Actives ... SUNW $3.89 +4.85%, SIRI $6.00 +1.52%, QQQQ $37.83, MSFT $25.05 -0.83%, INTC $27.07 +0.48%, ORCL $12.43 -1.50%, SPY $121.37 +0.23%, JDSU $1.55 +1.97%, CSCO $19.33 +0.05%, MICU $27.47 +73.86%

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 1:39:29 PM

OEX back at 570.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 1:39:10 PM

Blue Nile (NILE) $33.29 +1.55% Link ... finds a bid

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 1:38:17 PM

Headline:

FED'S HOENIG SAYS U.S. ECONOMY REMAINS STRONG

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 1:36:49 PM

Kind of interesting how well these FIB levels on the entire bull-market rise for the SOX have held as important levels to watch, isn't it? Link This chart would appear to show that the 435-ish region has some importance for the SOX. Remember that we're looking at a big move and a monthly chart, so that we should also be considering that 435 level important on a monthly closing basis.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 1:21:24 PM

So, the SOX confirmed a H&S on the five-minute chart, dropped but perhaps didn't quite meet the downside target, depending on where the neckline is drawn, rose to retest the neckline and now just kind of trades sideways. What's that? What's going to happen next? The 30-minute chart shows the SOX maintaing support above a Keltner line currently at 428.88, and likely to continue to challenge resistance as long as it can maintain 30-minute closes above that line. The strong decline didn't fit with a picture of a measured decline while accumulation occurred, but when has anything fit any picture lately? Next Keltner resistance on the 30-minute chart is at 431.12 and then 432.78.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 1:21:45 PM

StreetTracks Gold Trust (GLD) $43.52 +1.82% ... 50% retracement here. Was a sticking point in late April.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 1:19:40 PM

One reason I wanted to place an offer just above today's high on the SZP-FD is that there can be a tendency late in the afternoon, ahead of expiration, for traders to buy up some of the more heavily weighted index names, especially in an upward trend, to get a favorable settlement. Quarterly expiration provides greater emphasis.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 1:19:00 PM

Session high for August gold, +7.2 at 438.10, with HUI +3.51% at 201.16 and XAU +3.47% at 92.51. Silver is lagging, however, up .044 or .6% at 7.374.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 1:17:49 PM

The short cycle downphase has stalled at the midpoint of its range, with QQQQ hanging in what looks like the right shoulder of a small intraday h&s patten. With the 30 min cycle indicators rolling over as the 60 min cycle upphase stalls out, that's my best guess as to what's happening here. Below 37.90, the intraday outlook is bearish on this basis. Above 38, the intraday cycles will begin trending upward, which would be bad news for the daily cycle downphase, which has been slowing from this week's higher lows. Intraday chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 1:14:50 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 1:08:44 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 1:02:46 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 1:02:09 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 1:01:09 PM

Session high for July crude at 56.35, +.75.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 12:48:00 PM

BIX still just below the 200-sma, still testing it. No outcome apparent yet. The BIX has so far not broken above the best-fit descending trendline off May's high.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 12:45:31 PM

The Wilshire 5000 is back above 12,000, trying to convert that formation back into a bull flag. It's risen to test the descending trendline off this morning's high. A new high would be needed to confirm any breakout above that trendline.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 12:42:26 PM

I treat Cohen's advice about the same way that I treat that of a broker who had me patiently explain to him what a credit spread was and then told me just as patiently why they couldn't be used in an IRA. Definitely to be mistrusted. Oh, and the IRA funds have been rolled into another account elsewhere.

Tab Gilles : 6/16/2005 12:41:21 PM

For those who watch Jim Cramer's "Mad Money" on CNBC, Monday nights show he was screaming to buy Sears Holdings (SHLD)! He had done his Jake & Elwood imitation by writing S-H-L-D on his knuckles and jamming it into the tv screen. Like 'em or not, he's fun to watch. But...just look at that rally from Monday! Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 12:40:43 PM

QQQQ breaks back above 72 SMA resistance here on light volume. The short cycle indicators are still in their downphase, but so far it's far weaker than the bearish divergences suggested: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 12:37:16 PM

The OEX fell almost exactly to the midpoint of its rising regression channel, finding at least temporary support there, as might have been expected. Now, will it be able to move up through its rising regression channel again or will the attempt fail? Wish I knew and could make a prognosis. Some signs suggest that the OEX might have difficulty rising all the way to the top of the channel, now at 572, but it should also always be disturbing to bears if there's an immediate and sharp bounce right after breaking through support. So far, this bounce hasn't been sharp.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 12:30:54 PM

August gold made a new daily high at 437.20, currently up 6.2 at 437.10, as QQQQ was breaking 72 SMA support. Currently, price is holding at 37.80, just below it, as the 30 min cycle holds flat at the top of its run off yesterday's lows. 37.68-.70 is looking like firm support, with the daily pivot, 30 and 60 min channel bottoms lined up there. However, as price holds below the 72 SMA, the channel bottoms should begin to edge lower. Currently, advancing volume's lead is at 1.87:1 on the NYSE and 2.68:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 12:30:35 PM

Still watching the Wilshire ($DWC on QCharts) as it rises to retest 12,000 from below. Keltner resistance waits just overhead. The DWC's pullback was looking bull flag-ish until about 15-20 minutes ago, when the decline became more precipitous.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 12:28:53 PM

I wouldn't make market decisions based on what Cohen or anyone else says, although I'm certainly interested in how markets react to statements by Greenspan, Trichet and others, but that coincidence was funny.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 12:26:24 PM

Jonathan has been updating us the past couple of years on Abby's comments. Not too many bears have been laughing though Jane. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 12:36:49 PM

GSX Resources (GMXR) $13.30 +8.04% Link ... thinly traded name trades higher after coverage initiated by boutique firm Morgan Joseph. Trades with warrants GMXRW Link

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 12:21:47 PM

Wilshire rising to test 12,000 from below again, currently at 11,996.80. There's Keltner resistance just below 12,000 and then from 12,006.51-12,013.71.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 12:20:24 PM

Laughing, just noticing Jonathan's post about Abby Joseph Cohen's statement, and then noting the downturn in the markets. Somebody fading Cohen?

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 12:15:27 PM

The RLX has dropped back toward 451-ish support, but it's currently holding just above 452.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 12:15:11 PM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 12:12:58 PM

The OEX drops below the Keltner support that had been holding it up since yesterday's climb started. Bears want a 15-minute close beneath that 569.76 support. They do not want to see a quick reversal higher, although that doesn't look likely now.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 12:12:05 PM

The SOX confirmed that H&S on the five-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 12:11:58 PM

QQQQ breaks 72 SMA support: Link . 30 min channel support is at 37.72, 60 min channel support at 37.69.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 12:11:42 PM

This drop just pushed the Wilshire 5000 back below 12000.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 12:10:28 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 12:09:28 PM

From Reuters:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Abby Joseph Cohen, the chief U.S. portfolio strategist for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research), on Tuesday said the U.S. economic expansion is "nowhere near its end."

Cohen, speaking at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit, said: "We think we still have quite a way to go in terms of this economic expansion," adding that the current cycle will be notable for its duration.

U.S. stocks are not especially cheap or especially expensive; rather they are "moderately cheap," and the Standard & Poor's 500 is undervalued by about 12 percent to 15 percent, she said.

Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 12:07:58 PM

Ten year notes have firmed on the Philly Fed data, TNX down 1.6 bps at 4.099% here. Crude oil is down to a 25 cent gain at 55.825.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 12:04:12 PM

An inverse H&S on the five-minute chart started the SOX's climb off yesterday's low. Now there's a potential regular H&S on the SOX's five-minute chart. About to test the neckline, perhaps at about 430.07, although it's a little difficult to be sure of the exact location.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 12:03:17 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 6/16/2005 12:01:49 PM

Basic Materials (XLB) Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 12:07:23 PM

Headlines:

U.S. JUNE PHILLY FED -2.2 VS. 7.3 IN MAY

JUNE PHILLY FED FIRST NEGATIVE SINCE MAY 2003

U.S. JUNE PHILLY FED NEW ORDERS 2.5 VS.15.0 IN MAY

Estimates were for 10.0.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 12:01:07 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,209.55, DIA $105.91, QQQQ $37.91

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 12:00:19 PM

SPX 1,210.39 VIX.X 11.25 SZP-FD $0.25 x $0.35.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 11:55:57 AM

Day trade sell naked put setup alert ... look to sell five (5) of the S&P 500 Index SPX.X June 1,220 Calls (SZP-FD) currently bid/offer $0.25 x $0.35 if they trade $0.60.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 11:48:01 AM

DWC (Wilshire 5000) still above 12,000 but below its HOD. It's at 12,010.72 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 11:45:49 AM

The short cycle downphase has kicked off despite the lack of downside price confirmation, from a bearish-divergent setup. The 30 min cycle upphase has stalled but it will take prints below 37.80 to roll it over. Below 37.65, the 60 min cycle would follow. This bearish intraday view would be invalidated by a break of 38.00, with confirmation on a move above daily R1 at 38.10: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 11:45:48 AM

The OEX still tests that Keltner line currently at 569.70, with that line having supported it on its climb off yesterday's low. Bulls want to see continued 15-minute closes above this line.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 11:38:45 AM

SPY/SPX option chains at this Link ... looking a bit like a 1,209 settle on the SPX?

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 11:35:59 AM

So far, both the SOX and OEX produce 15-minute closes where bulls would like to see them do so, but I'm just not sure how long that will continue. On the 15-minute chart, at least, the OEX's support lines now begin to thin while resistance attempts to firm. Neither has thinned enough or firmed enough to be a definitive "the OEX will go this way" predictor, not yet.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 11:30:25 AM

The SOX also tests a Keltner line (15-minute) that supported it on its cimb off yesterday's low. It crossed above this line about when it completed its inverse H&S. That line is at 429.74 currently, and SOX bulls want to see continued 15-minute closes above this line.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 11:29:04 AM

The coupon pass was 425M, a minor reduction in the day's total net drain, now -7.375B for the day.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 11:25:13 AM

RLX still near the high of the day, but perhaps struggling with that 453.50-454-ish resistance.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 11:24:21 AM

BIX back below the 200-sma, but only barely. It's still within testing territory.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 11:24:04 AM

July crude oil is up .425 at 56 here, off a high of 56.35.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 11:23:18 AM

RUT still hanging near the HOD.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 11:21:34 AM

The OEX is about to test a Keltner line currently at 569.64. The OEX has not produced a 15-minute close elow that Keltner line since yesterday's 1:45 candle, so such a close would be a change in short-term trend.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 11:20:38 AM

QQQQ option chain most actives at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 11:17:20 AM

No short cycle sell signal yet for QQQQ, but the indicators did not reach their previous highs even as QQQQ was touching 38- a failure to bounce in the coming minutes will see that potential bearish divergence confirm. A break below the 72 SMA at 37.80 would end the 30 min cycle upphase as well: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 11:17:07 AM

Here's the Wilshire 5000's daily Keltner chart. Note that daily resistance is being tested. There's mixed evidence here, as there's Keltner-style bearish divergence (black channel line is further below the purple one than it was the last time the DWC tested the black channel line) but yet the resistance currently being tested still turns higher. Link What is definite here is that important resistance is being tested. Bulls and bears have reason to be watchful.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 11:13:21 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 11:12:53 AM

Just noticed that the Wilshire 5000 has bumped above 12,000, now at 12,012.55, challenging the 12/31 high of 12,027.54. March's high was 12,108.93.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 11:12:20 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 11:09:02 AM

QQQQ $37.92 +0.55% ... session high has been ... $38.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 11:08:23 AM

VXN.X 14.99 -2.97% ... pinned under WEEKLY S1 (15.01) for last 30-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 11:01:53 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 11:01:20 AM

The Fed is issuing a coupon pass, which is a permanent market operation, to supplement the 8B net repo drain. No amount has been announced yet, but it will reduce the size of that net drain.

Tab Gilles : 6/16/2005 10:57:48 AM

$SOX.X Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 10:58:52 AM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,210.87 +0.35% ... has challenged its 80.9% retracement (see Market Wraps) as well as MONTHLY R1

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 10:56:35 AM

Here's the OEX's 30-minute Keltner chart, showing the resistance it faces (black channel line) and the rising regression channel, too: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 10:53:34 AM

The OEX is testing Keltner resistance on the important 30-minute chart. The resistance at the top of its rising regression channel is at about 571.60. The OEX is currently at 570.82, and pierced that Keltner resistance but has now fallen back, perhaps temporarily, to that Keltner line. Bulls would like to see a 30-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 570.93. Without a breakout above that resistance and the top of the rising regression channel, the bulls might again question whether their positions are living on borrowed time. Other indices already show breakouts, though, so just keep those profit-protecting plans in place if in bullish positions.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 10:50:30 AM

Note the potential bearish divergence in the short cycle indicators in the QQQQ chart just posted (pane immediately below volume bars). However, price needs to break below 37.84-.86 to generate the first downticks in those indicators- until that occurs, it's only a potential divergence.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 10:50:24 AM

RUT to soon face the 3/07 high of 647.64, with the RUT currently at 640.14. It's already dealing with 640-641-ish historical resistance.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 10:48:13 AM

BIX now above the 200-sma. Bulls need this to hold (364.02) and then for the BIX to move above a best-fit trendline (ignoring the candle shadow from 6/01) that now crosses at above 565.20, if I've drawn it correctly. The BIX is now facing resistance from that trendline, roughly describing the top of a descending regression channel. Currently, the BIX is at 364.83.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 10:46:07 AM

RUT at its HOD.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 10:45:50 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,552 +0.71% ... challenge rising 200-day SMA, 38.2% retracement (see Market Wrap)

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 10:45:06 AM

Session highs across the board, advancing volume leading 3.33:1 on the NYSE and 3.4:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 10:43:14 AM

Session high for QQQQ here at 37.94, 30 min channel resistance climbin to 38.00. Daily R1 is up at 38.10. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 10:42:38 AM

SOX has been consolidating above 15-minute Keltner support, with a potential 436.09 upside target set on that chart. The 30-minute chart suggests a lower upside target, however, of 432.38, with that line still turning higher and being important on 30-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 10:44:54 AM

NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) alert 7,275 +0.25% Link ... breaking above the 12/31/04 relative high (see Market Wrap)

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 10:44:30 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 364.06 +0.07% Link ... challenging their 200-day SMA. MACD curling up and still above zero.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 10:38:46 AM

OEX above 570. Since 5/23, a move above 570 has meant that OEX bulls are living on borrowed time. I'm not sure that's true today, but bulls should have profit-protecting plans in place, just in case.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 10:36:02 AM

Session highs for ES and YM here, QQQQ 3 cents away. Volume breadth positive 2.57:1 on the NYSE and 3.21:1 on the Nasdaq, with the TRIn down to .53 and the TRINQ up to .43.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 10:35:11 AM

Here comes 570 on the OEX. Remember that the OEX's formation remains a broadening one and there have been numerous spikes above 570 intraday, but all the closes have been at or under 570.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 10:33:54 AM

BIX just under the 200-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 10:27:20 AM

A sharp upside spike in the US Dollar Index Link but gold, silver, and the miners are all holding strong gains. Crude oil is currently flat at 55.575.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 10:24:17 AM

VIX.X 11.19 -2.35% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.03, 11.25, Piv = 11.60, 11.82, 12.17.

Tab Gilles : 6/16/2005 10:24:16 AM

Follow-up to 6/13 8:43AM post.... Placer Dome (PDG) Link Link

Newmont Mining (NEM) Link Link Gold/Siver Index ($XAU) Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 10:23:25 AM

QQQQ volume is declining on the pullback so far, suggesting a lack of commitment to the downside. But below the 72 SMA at 37.71, that should change as the 30 min cycle upphase would stall and begin to reverse. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 10:22:57 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 10:19:34 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 10:15:22 AM

I lost a post, but I had noted that the early action of the BIX and RLX were divergent, with both these indices important to the OEX's performance. The BIX had headed down while the RLX headed up, but now the BIX bounces up to test the 200-sma from below and the RLX pauses. The bounce in the BIX while the RLX held steady probably helped the OEX to post some gains, but several possible scenerios could unfold now: the BIX pushing up through the 200-sma and seeing a strong gain as a result while the RLX retreats to consolidate, both turning down at the same time, etc. Behaviors like these are one reason for the choppy trading behavior lately.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2005 10:12:11 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 6/16/2005 10:12:06 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) taking some more off the table at $52.50. P/O $55, using 10-ema trailing stop. Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 10:10:25 AM

The Dow is flipping to positive here, session high for GE at 36.38, with NYSE advancing volume strengthening to 2.07:1 and on the Nasdaq to 3.56:1.

Tab Gilles : 6/16/2005 10:08:48 AM

$USB Looking for 114 level to be tested, stochs & MaCD overbought. Link Link

TLT Take some profits on puts Sept 95 (TLTUQ) Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 10:07:48 AM

The total put to call ratio has printed a low .54 for the first half hour. QQV is flat at 14.27, VXO 10.85.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 10:06:33 AM

Ten year treasury yields have stopped dead at 4.12%, TNX currently up .4 bps at 4.119%.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 10:04:08 AM

The OEX heads up toward 569.63 15-minute resistance, with resistance just above 570, too.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 10:03:10 AM

The SOX hit--or almost hit--30-minute Kelnter resistace currently at 432.11. It pulled back immediately, but may be gearing up for another attempt. This is a Keltner channel line that has been stopping the SOX on each swing high this month. Doesn't mean that it will continue to do so, of course, but it should be watched for potential resistance. A 30-minute close above that Keltner line sets a potential upside target of 441.53.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 10:01:55 AM

QQQQ failed at 37.90, currently pulling back. Bears need a break below 37.70 to stall the ongoing 30 min cycle upphase: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 9:58:14 AM

RUT ended up producing a tall white candle its first 15-minutes, but now drops again, not yet reversing that first 15-minute climb, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 9:57:22 AM

An 8B overnight repo from the Fed results in a total net drain of 8B today.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 9:52:59 AM

Advancing volume leads 1.7:1 on the NYSE and 3.9:1 on the Nasdaq, the TRINQ down at .38 and the TRIN at .68. There's no way of knowing which will correct toward the other, but the Nasdaq's .38 TRINQ is verging on an extreme reading.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 9:50:45 AM

The OEX's 15-minute candles are opening and closing right along 569 for the last three 15-minute sessions.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 9:50:28 AM

Session low for GE here, the Dow still negative while QQQQ pushes yesterday's premarket highs.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 9:48:05 AM

TRAN rising to test its 200-sma from below. The TRAN is at 3540.97 and that average is now at 3555.20.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 9:47:36 AM

RLX still gaining.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 9:47:48 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle upphase is just approaching overbought territory, not there yet, with price still pushing the upper 30 min channel top higher. The 60 min upphase also continues up, approaching the midpoint of its range. 38.00-38.10 remains strong resistance.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 9:45:52 AM

Bifurcation. The Dow isn't gaining as the Nasdaq is. One of those days, maybe?

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 9:45:00 AM

And there goes the Nasdaq, above yesterday's high, but now facing Keltner resistance at 2080.84 on 30-minute closes, and so far, showing distinct Keltner-style bearish divergence as it tests this resistance. A breakout is possible, erasing that divergence, and that certainly looks like what's happening on a traditional chart analysis basis. As I type, the Nasdaq is at 2081.42.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 9:40:39 AM

Ten year notes are recovering off their lows, TNX down to a .5 bp gain at 4.12%.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 9:39:08 AM

Nasdaq testing yesterday's swing high from the first 15 minutes, at 2079.13, with today's high 2079.22.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 9:39:23 AM

QQQQ dropped to 37.66 and has spiked up to a session high of 37.85, breaking 30 and 60 min channel resistance. Meanwhile YM is printing a session low- wild action here at the open.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 9:38:13 AM

OEX bouncing toward the open again.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 9:37:45 AM

The RLX also popped higher and immediately dropped. No classic evening-star formation on the daily chart will be possible, then, because the open was too high, but let's see what happens the rest of the day. The RLX faces further historical S/R near 553.50, in a range near that number, and that's what turned it back during the first few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 9:35:26 AM

The RUT does another breakout thing this morning, above the rising wedge/channel shape, but so far, this morning's first 15-minute chart looks remarkably like yesterday's, with the RUT gapping up, rising a bit further, and then dropping, leaving an upper shadow behind. The first 15-minute candle is far from completed, of course.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 9:33:27 AM

The OEX does not gap higher, but instead makes moves to confirm the reversal signal on its 15-minute chart. Bears would like to see this 15-minute period close below or near 568.26, the bottom of the last tall white candle on the 15-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 9:13:12 AM

The Fed has announced a 9B 14-day repo against the 12B expiring for a net drain of 3B in that timeframe. The remaining 12B in shorter term repos will be addressed in the 10AM announcement.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 9:05:50 AM

Big miss from GS, whose net income fell from 1.19B or 2.31 per share to 865M or 1.71 per share. Revenue fell from 5.51B to 4.81B. Exctations were for revenue of 4.96B and EPS of 1.87 per share. GS is currently trading -.71 at 98.48.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 8:51:12 AM

Yesterday was the "OEX bounced from the 100-sma, up to 570" version of the OEX's movements through its recent consolidation pattern. That pattern still has a rounding-over appearance, although a close above 570 would have somewhat questioned that appearance, depending on how high over 570 it closed. That didn't happen, so market participants have at least one more day if not the rest of opex week to wait until this consolidation is resolved. The SPX and Dow formerly had that same rounding-over appearance, and both closed high enough yesterday to question that formation, so will the OEX soon follow?

Maybe, maybe not. The SOX resolved its similar round-over formation--more clearly visible on the 60-minut chart than on the daily--by dropping all the way into daily Keltner support and the 200-ema. It rebounded with a strong move higher, though. If that daily candle, a hammer, had resulted after a steep drop instead of after a one-day drop out of a consolidation pattern, I'd have said it was a potential reversal signal. It may be, but the fact that it didn't occur after a downtrend as seen on the daily chart, but rather after a move back down through the consolidation pattern, clouds the analysis somewhat. Most times, the SOX does see follow through after springing up in that manner, but this time, it will be springing up through a recent consolidation pattern.

The components the OEX shares with the RLX may have been helping to prop the OEX up, but the RLX formed a potential reversal signal that needs confirmation in Thursday's trading pattern, but still signals some at-least-temporary waning of the uptrend on the RLX. WMT printed its own version of a potential reversal signal at its 100-sma yesterday. The RLX may be an important index to watch today.

The OEX produced its own possible reversal signal, but on its 15-minute chart. Today's open may tell us much about short-term direction, at least. If the OEX should open below yesterday's open, OEX traders might be watchful for a downturn again through that 566-570 range, although that's not guaranteed in this market. If the OEX should gap higher, particularly if it gaps above 570, the 15-minute reversal potential will have been rejected. Some bulls might be willing to pile on, but I just don't think I have the stomach to buy a breakout near 570, not when all upside breakouts have been reversed and when the Dow would shortly be testing 10,600. The 30-minute nested Keltner chart shows that 570.60 will likely be strong resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 8:47:03 AM

The Fed has 24B in various term repos expiring today, 12B of which is in 14-day repos. The announcement for the longer dated repo is due shortly, and the short term announcements will be made just before 10AM.

Tab Gilles : 6/16/2005 8:35:36 AM

NY Spot Gold 08:30 AM BID 431.70/ASK 432.20...Change +3.00/ +0.70%

$USD 88.54 -0.01

Is gold putting in a top? 20 year chart of $USD & $GOLD annotated. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 8:32:04 AM

Pretty much a yawn from the market so far, QQQQ holding at 37.75, YM trading both sides of 10600, NQ down to a 2 point gain at 1541.5, and TNX up 1.5 bps at 4.13%.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 8:30:54 AM

Headlines:

U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 1,000 TO 333,000

U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS

U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 58,000 TO 2.64 MLN

U.S. MAY HOUSING STARTS UP 0.2% TO 2.009 MLN UNITS

U.S. APRIL STARTS REVISED DOWN TO 2.005 MLN VS 2.04 MLN

U.S. MAY BUILDING PERMITS DOWN 4.6% TO 2.050 MLN UNITS

U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 2,750 TO 335,000

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 8:29:52 AM

QQQQ is settling back to a 5 cent gain at 37.75 ahead of the 8:30 data. 5-day 3-min chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 8:25:19 AM

Ten year notes have slipped negative, with ten year note yields (TNX) up 1.2 bps to 4.127%, chopping within yesterday's range below the 4.14%-4.16% confluence zone. 6-month daily chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 8:21:47 AM

Gold has punched through 433 resistance for the first time breaking below it in early May, August gold currently +3.4 at 434.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 8:13:13 AM

Crude oil touched a lower high of 55.95 overnight, as the OPEC ministers made statements to the effect that current high prices reflect not a lack of supply capacity, but of refining capacity. Saudi minister Ali al-Naimi said, "We are ready to supply more crude. But get us the customers. There is no shortage of oil. It's there but, what is driving the price is the inability to make the oil into products." The logic here is difficult to fathom, given that the issue being debated is the high price of crude oil, and not secondary products. In any event, the latest comments are being construed bullishly for crude oil by the market.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/16/2005 7:57:12 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1315.25, NQ 1544.5, YM 10609 and QQQQ +.08 at 37.78. Gold is up 2.10 to 433, silver +.07 to 7.40 and ten year notes are flat at 112 3/8. Crude oil is up 25 cents to 55.825.

We await the 8:30 of initial claims, est. 330K, Housing Starts and Building Permits, est. 2.05M and 2.106M respectively. At noon, we get the Philly Fed, est. 10.0.

Linda Piazza : 6/16/2005 6:54:03 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei was positive in the morning, negative in the early afternoon, and ended just a few points from its open. Most Asian markets gained, although some gains were tepid. European markets post more robust gains this morning. Our futures have drifted sideways up during the night. As of 6:21 EST, gold was up $2.50, and crude, up $0.20 to $55.77. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei climbed again early Thursday. Commodity-related stocks rose in early trading after crude and copper prices climbed. That category of stocks were to show strength all day. The Nikkei couldn't hold onto most of those early morning gains, however, diving into the early afternoon session after the release of April's machinery orders showed a 1.0% decline from March's number. With the drop in machinery orders actually smaller than expected, the Nikkei recovered to close higher by 0.50 points or 0.00%, to 11,416.38, just a few points off its open. The day's trading will have created a doji at the top of a climb, so market watchers will be particularly attentive to the Nikkei's pattern tomorrow.

Most other Asian markets gained, although some gains were modest. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.48%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.12%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.04%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.58%. China's urban fixed-asset investment rose 26.4% through May when compared to the first five months of last year. That fueled fears about the overheating of the Chinese economy. The Shanghai Composite erased early losses, however, and rose 1.23%.

Most European markets trade in positive territory, with commodity-related issues performing well in Europe, too. ABN Amro upgraded BHP Billiton. Goldman Sachs cut its rating of the U.K.'s BP PLC at least partly on valuation concerns, however, and that stock was easing in early European trading. Italy's April trade deficit widened and some fear it may widen further as recent data indicates export demand slowing further.

In other developments, Philips Electronics announced terms of a deal to transfer part of its business to Hong-Kong based TPV Technology, and was recovering some of yesterday's losses. At a Goldman Sachs healthcare conference, Merck announced that it was raising its mid-term financial goals. The stock was posting strong gains in early trading. Pfizer made a bid for Vicuron Pharmaceuticals, with Vicuron posting gains as a result. Capgemini SA was dropping after the French IT group announced the launching of a new euro convertible bond. Brokerage action led to an easing in Swiss Re's price after J.P. Morgan downgraded it to a neutral rating, a climb in Royal Ahold NV after Merrill Lynch upgraded the stock to a neutral rating, and a climb in brewer InBev SA after Merrill Lynch upgraded the stock to a buy rating. Also in the news this morning is speculation that accounting firm KPMG may be facing criminal charges of obstruction of justice and the sale of abusive tax shelters from the U.S. Justice Department. The company's attorneys meet with the Justice Department to help avoid those charges, with a company spokesperson terming the company's action as fully cooperative.

As of 6:39 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 17.40 points or 0.35%, at 5,036.90. The CAC 40 was higher by 19.63 points or 0.47%, at 4,203.99. The DAX was higher by 19.72 points or 0.43%, to 4,563.14.

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