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OI Technical Staff : 6/20/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 5:57:03 PM

CRB Index changes found at this Link and this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 5:33:12 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 5:09:18 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... July Crude Oil futures (cl05n) settled up $0.90, or 1.54% at $59.37 on Monday. July Unleaded Gas (hu05n) settled down $-0.0015, or -0.09% at $1.6456. July Heating Oil (ho05n) settled up $0.010, or 0.61% at $1.6618.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 5:00:36 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 4:49:00 PM

Carlyle Group and Extell Development agree to buy large tract of NYC land and 3 buildings from a Donald Trump and Hong Kong Consortium for $1.76 billion. Trump Entertainment (BB:DJTE) $13.55 +1.49%

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 4:10:26 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $105.91, SPY $121.43

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 4:08:45 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... No activity today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 4:04:09 PM

Calpine (CPN) $3.50 +12.90% ... priced $650 million in contingent convertible notes due 2,015 at 7.75%. Notes convertible into cash and common stock at $4.00 per share. Offering will be closed on June 23.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 4:04:05 PM

The DJUSHB produced a fairly convincing approximation of a tweezers top reversal signal today, one sign I was watching to see. Of course, a "reversal" here can mean just a pullback or the reversal itself can be reversed. The RUT did turn down today, but didn't close below the midpoint of Thursday's tall white candle. So, there's a sort-of reversal signal, but the evening-star formation wasn't quite completed. The Wilshire looked as if it was completing a tweezers-top formation, but it bounced up again, creating a doji and failing to confirm any kind of reversal signal. The RLX gapped down, but created another doji. Mixed evidence.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 4:00:54 PM

QQQQ back to rising 72 SMA support here, the short cycle downphase already in progress. 72 SMA support is failing as I type, and if the bears can hold it, the 30 min cycle will reverse back down: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 3:57:24 PM

SPY $121.55 +0.15% ... slips back to MONTHLY R1 (right were 03:00-03:05 buy premium was found).

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 3:55:37 PM

There's a great possibility that the OEX is still in the process of forming a right shoulder for its H&S on the 15-minute chart, but we earlier saw an example of remaining bullish fervor. Is it enough to keep that formation from confirming or at least to prolong the right shoulder long enough for the formation to just dissipate? That's possible, too. That kind of thing is what we're trying to find out today and early this week. How strong will pullbacks be? How successful are bulls in running the indices higher again and keeping them there?

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 3:48:36 PM

The Wilshire 5000 rose to test 15-minute Keltner resistance, so far showing tentative Keltner-style bearish divergence as it did so, finding resistance at a lower level, Keltner-wise.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 3:45:50 PM

The OEX completed the evening-star formation on its 15-minute chart. Although that right shoulder rose a little higher than it should have, I don't consider the potential H&S violated yet.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 3:42:41 PM

Potential reversal signal on the OEX's 15-minute chart as it faces Keltner resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 3:45:18 PM

Spire Corp. (SPIR) $8.70 +44.27% ... heavy volume of 3.7 million after company announced that it has executed a contract to provide EMMVEE Solar Systems Pivate Ltd. (Bangalore, India) with Spire's SPI-Line 5000M. EMMVEE Solar Systems was founded in 1992 with a vision to make solar power available to households at a low cost, contributing to a cleaner, greener and safer environment for generations to come. EMVEE Solar Systems saying it has already installed over 40,000 solar water heaters under the brand name "Solarizer" in homes and institutions across India. Spire Corp. offers proven SPI-LINE turnkey production lines for module, cell, and wafer manufacturing.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 3:40:37 PM

The Nasdaq has risen almost high enough to retest that potential neckline for an inverse H&S on its daily chart, near 2100. The Nasdaq is currently at 2092.72, with the HOD at 2096.77.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 3:38:49 PM

QQQQ fell back below the wedge apex but is holding on 38 support. A failure below 37.95 will kick off a new short cycle downphase, with 72 SMA support up to 37.86, below which the 30 min cycle will roll over. Volume has nearly made it to 2/3 of its average daily volume for QQQQ, currently 59.97M shares traded.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 3:38:12 PM

The DJUSHB isn't yet participating in the bounce.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 3:37:40 PM

The RUT is currently trapped between 644.20-ish resistance and 642.25-642.91-ish support.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 3:25:52 PM

The RUT rose just about exactly to the 38.2% retracement of the gap this morning. I sometimes put Fib brackets on the gaps, if they're big enough and look to see if the 50% retracement holds as resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 3:24:30 PM

QQQQ update at this Link with price holding upper wedge trendline support. The 30 and 60 min cycles are in gear to the upside, the short cycles not yet maxxed out in overbought but getting close. A break below 37.92-.95 would be the first sign of trouble for bulls.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 3:21:11 PM

Earlier, the OEX looked as if it were rounding over into a right shoulder for a H&S, and now it looks as if it's heading up to retest the top of the broadening formation. Can this be trusted any more than the supposed rollover as 30-minute and regression channel resistance are tested? Maybe, since the zooms higher have tended to hold more than those going lower. Buying near 570 would have been a good deal after all today, but not a lot of chart characteristics were supporting that at the time. If any did enter such bullish positions, be sure you have profit-protecting plans in place now, for this current level.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 3:21:08 PM

Did get another buy program premiu from 03:00-03:05 PM EDT. Decent one to 7.04.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 3:15:33 PM

SPY $121.76 +0.32% ... now #4 most active. 2.9 million changed hands in last 5-minutes from $121.60-$121.84.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 3:14:12 PM

The OEX tests a 30-minute Keltner line at 573.45, the top of its ascending regression channel, and one version of a neckline for an inverse H&S. At the same time, it hasn't yet approached the top of the broadening formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 3:11:41 PM

Ten year note yields finished up 2.5 bps a 4.103% after failing again at 4.14%-4.16% resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 3:10:21 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 3:10:13 PM

The SPX is already above the Keltner line that the OEX and Dow currently test.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 3:09:25 PM

The Dow is testing an analogous Keltner channel line to the one that the OEX currently tests, with the Dow's at 10,631.60. Bears want a 15-minute close below it; bulls, above it.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 3:08:26 PM

QQQQ update at this Link , testing daily R1.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 3:08:13 PM

OEX testing a Keltner line currently at 573.01, with bears wanting to see a 15-minute close below it and bulls wanting a 15-minute close above it. It's also testing the top of its ascending regression channel, a channel that it broke through for a little while late Thursday and early Friday.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 3:04:34 PM

QQQQ briefly exceeded upper 30 and 60 min channel resistance, but the pullback was so shallow that the channels are moving higher, currently lined up at 37.98-38.00. Despite the light volume, negative divergences, higher oil and higher bond yields, QQQQ is going up and not down. The intraday bias remains positive above 37.83.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 3:02:26 PM

As some have probably already pointed out, the Nasdaq has closed today's gap and is slightly above that gap now. It's testing Keltner resistance currently at a line at 2093.20.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 3:02:08 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 2:56:48 PM

Volume breadth has turned positive on the Nasdaq 1.15:1, while it remains 1.17:1 negative on the NYSE.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 2:54:50 PM

QQQQ option chain (update) at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 2:49:20 PM

The top of the OEX's expanding formation on the daily chart is now at about 574.85, if I'm positioning the cursor correctly on the charts. There's 15-minute Keltner resistance at that level. First, though, before testing that, the OEX would have to get past the Keltner resistance now at 572.85 (on 15-minute closes) and the presumed right-shoulder resistance. Hasn't done that yet.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 2:45:27 PM

The Wilshire is back near the HOD, testing the Keltenr resistance near there.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 2:42:23 PM

The DJUSHB has been testing Friday's low, reversing all the gains from that big-range day. It should be time for a bounce soon.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 2:41:44 PM

The SOX did not set a new high, still hilding below 429.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 2:39:06 PM

The answer to the question as to whether the necklines of those H&S's is going to be tested is now a definitive no. Not right now. The OEX rises to the top of the potential right-shoulder level, and a rise much above 573 would invalidate the formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 2:38:32 PM

Session highs across the board, QQQQ now .05 at 37.92. 30 and 60 min channel resistance are at 37.93-.95. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 2:38:09 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,215.66, DIA $106.02, QQQQ $37.92. (ssssqueeeeeeeze)

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 2:35:18 PM

July crude oil closed +.975 at 59.45, 7.5 cents below the session high.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 2:32:53 PM

SPY with updated WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 2:22:09 PM

10 Most Actives ... LU $3.09 +3.69%, QQQQ $37.81 -0.15%, MSFT $25.11 +0.27%, CVC $32.16 +19.72%, SUNW $3.86 -0.25%, SPY $121.29 -0.05%, INTC $26.95 -0.62%, ORCL $12.43 +0.72%, CPN $3.40 +9.35%, CSCO $19.53 (unch)

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 2:21:36 PM

QQQQ update at this Link , still holding the 72 SMA on very light volume, up to 45M shares now and just reaching half of Friday's volume.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 2:19:17 PM

Test of the OEX's (and other indices') necklines coming up? Possibly. Bulls couldn't get any upside traction.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 2:13:18 PM

Big move followed by prolonged period when nothing happens. That sounds familiar lately, doesn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 2:10:47 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 2:08:23 PM

July crude to new highs here, up .0925 at 59.40 after tagging 59.45.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 2:07:56 PM

DJUSHB still below 1000, not yet participating in any bounce.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 2:05:27 PM

The RUT had been bouncing for a while off the five-minute 100/130-ema's, but this morning, it broke back below those average, confirming a short-term change in trend. Short-term indeed, because the RUT is back above those averages now, building/confirming? a small inverse H&S on the five-minute chart, trying to gain enough strength to rise and test this morning's gap. Hasn't quite done that yet, though. If it does, bears want to see gap resistance hold. Bulls don't.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 2:03:19 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 1:58:18 PM

Warren Buffet is apparently still bearish the USD, a forex news source reports. He points to the US trade deficit as one reason for his belief, and reportedly noted that his belief is likely to hold long-term.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 1:54:04 PM

The VXO is back below 11 at 10.96, VXN down to 14.43. I'm not receiving quotes for QQV today, but it "feels" negative as well. Volume is extremely light here at 43.2M QQQQ shares. Volume breadth remains negative 1.42:1 on the NYSE and 1.27:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 1:55:16 PM

VXN.X 14.44 -1.29% ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels from QCharts ... 12.92, 13.72, Piv= 15.14, 15.94, 17.36.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 1:52:45 PM

We're right in one prime stop-running times of day and it appears that bulls are attempting to run the indices up to test their appropriate right-shoulder levels. So far, the pushes higher are not impressive, but should be watched. I personally don't think today's declines have been strong enough to dissuade all bulls. Do you? Dangerous point for those in bearish positions, as they don't want an impulsive move higher to begin, unless it's quickly reversed.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 1:51:27 PM

Introgen Therapeutics (INGN) $6.39 -4.48% Link ... UBS a buyer in recent hour. 10-day's until end of June.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 1:47:36 PM

QQQQ $37.81 -0.15% ... heatmap at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 1:46:42 PM

Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 (MSH.X) 482.07 +0.02% .. bids green first time today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 1:37:31 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 1:36:57 PM

The Dow, of course, also has a potential H&S on its 15-minute chart, neckline at about 10,565, but Keltner support just below that at 10,557.50.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 1:35:38 PM

OEX and Wilshire 5000 both rounding down toward potential H&S necklines on their 15-minute charts. Neither has confirmed the formations

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 1:34:02 PM

July crude oil back over 59 now, +.55 or .94% at 59.025.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 1:32:19 PM

Watching the RUT for clues over the last couple of hours is like watching molasses run. This molasses is running sideways, with pancake-flat 15-minute candles moving in a straight line near 642.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 1:28:06 PM

The BIX bounced off its 200-sma today, but it's not positive on the day and currently appears to be breaking down from a flag-like climb today. That climb retraced more of the day's range than it should have if it were a bear flag, but it's support is breaking down anyway.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 1:27:23 PM

Both the 30 and 60 min cycles for QQQQ are taking the first steps of an upphase, so far with very poor price traction as price rests heavily on 72 SMA support. The good news here is that the two cycles are actually in sync instead of opposed, meaning that a directional move might actually develop, as opposed to flat/narrow chop.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 1:25:55 PM

L.G. Philips (LPL) $24.13 -1.10% Link ... Morgan Stanley resumes coverage of the flat panel maker with an "overweight" rating, saying that earnings growth will drive the stock from its current levels. Sees management as "too conservative" with guidance and firm believes that supply/demand of thin film transistor liquid crystal displays will stabilize in Q2 of 2005 and has stabilized in recent quarter.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 1:21:12 PM

The Wilshire 5000 may also be rounding over into the right shoulder of a H&S formation on its 15-minute chart, but it's far from confirming that formation as yet. The neckline is currently at about 12,027, if I've drawn the neckline correctly. Remember that H&S confirmations can't be assumed, even if you see this rounding over process.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2005 1:18:29 PM

Dateline WSJ A closely watched reading of the economy's prospects has fallen sharply in the past year. Though many economists play down its importance, it could point to a slowdown in the months to come.

The Conference Board, a private research firm, said its leading economic index, a basket of 10 indicators, fell in May for the fourth time in the past five months. The index is at its lowest since October 2003. Nine of its indicators fell in May, including the spread between long- and short-term interest rates, building permits, manufacturing hours, orders for factory goods and money supply. The only positive contributor to the LEI was the stock market.

In the past, a falling LEI spelled almost certain doom for the economy. But the LEI and gross domestic product growth haven't seen eye to eye in recent years, many economists say. "The forecast errors of the LEI model reveal that actual real GDP growth over the past five years has mostly been stronger than predicted," JPMorgan Asset Management senior economist Anthony Chan said in a new study of LEI. One possible reason for this decoupling is that the money-supply component of LEI doesn't track modern liquidity sources. And while a shrinking spread between short- and long-term interest rates has always been a bad sign for the economy in the past, some economists, including Alan Greenspan, have lately said things could be different this time.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 1:14:26 PM

Nymex July crude +.375 here at 58.85, off a low of 58.10 and early morning high of 59.275.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 1:11:15 PM

DJUSHB continues dropping, now just above Friday's low. I thought earlier it looked vulnerable to a Keltner line near 980-981, but that line has now risen to 981.92.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 1:11:12 PM

QQQQ is now testing 72 SMA support 37.76, below which the 30 min channel bottom is at 37.67 and the 60 min at 37.60.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 1:10:46 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 1:10:21 PM

The 16B 13-week auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.27%, rate of 2.965%, while the 14B 26-week bills generated 2.1 bids for each accepted, high rate of 3.175%. Indirect bidder participation was 9.16B of the total. Currently, ten year note yields are up 4.1 bps to 4.119%, a 1.01% gain today.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 1:08:30 PM

QQQ breaks rising intraday wedge support as the Treasury acution results are announced: Link . Auction data to follow shortly.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 1:05:57 PM

Slight hint of the OEX rolling lower. Needs to drop below a Keltner line currently at 569.15 before I would consider that formation confirmed, and needs to produce a 15-minute close below that Keltner line before bears could feel any comfort. The bottom of the OEX's rising regression channel is at about 567.50, so I would certainly have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of the 567.50-568 level if in bearish positions.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 1:03:57 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 1:00:21 PM

Nothing more to say, but that the OEX is either still building a right shoulder for its H&S on the 15-minute chart or else it's rising in preparation for a bigger rise that will refute the formation. The 15-minute chart makes one possibility look more likely; the 15-minute, another.

I'm particularly interested in what happens today. After last week's confusing trading and then breakouts across several indices, I went into the writing of the weekend Wrap thinking I'd be suggesting a "buy the dips" mentality. However, as I was writing that Wrap, I kept finding some unexpected areas of concern. The Wilshire 5000 broke above 12,000 on Thursday and built on the gains Friday, but pulled back right at a potential double-top level. The SOX didn't participate as strongly as most would have liked in the gains. The DJUSHB, an important index lately, broke above 1000, but did a quick dive in the afternoon that looked anything but bullish, even though the index bounced back somewhat. The RLX, an index important to the OEX, had confirmed one version of an inverse H&S on the daily chart last week, but had produced an approximation of a bearish reversal signal since doing so.

So, today I expected a pullback and wanted to see the shape of that pullback before I made up my mind about whether I expected more chop this summer--my until-Friday-bias--or whether there will be more gains or even a steeper decline than we expected. We should know a little more by the close today, after we've seen whether markets bounce strongly off this morning's declines or else break the support of the bear-flag-like formations in which they've until now been climbing off the day's lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 12:52:03 PM

The Treasury is auctioning 30B in 13-week and 26-week bills, the results of which should be released within the next 10 minutes. Currently, TNX is holding a 3.5 bp gain at 4.113%.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 12:46:23 PM

Is this all right-shoulder building activity on the OEX? It could be. No definite answer yet, as the OEX has neither convincingly rolled down nor risen high enough to refute this formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 12:39:50 PM

QQQQ broke above prior resistance at Friday afternoon's low and has been finding support here at 37.82 since within the short cycle upphase. Upper resistance converges at 37.90-.93, but the 30 min cycle channel is now rising. The intraday cycles remain bullish above 37.75: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 12:38:54 PM

QQQQ most active options ... July $39 Puts (23,937) $1.25, July $38 Calls (23,367) $0.50, July $38 Puts (12,232) $0.60, July $37 Puts (12,111) $0.25.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 12:37:55 PM

I've mentioned the OEX's potential H&S on the 15-minute chart, but there's a bigger inverse H&S on the daily chart, with the OEX finding resistance at the neckline: Link The OEX's whole broadening formation has been forming the right shoulder. (By the way, no breakout over the top of the broadening formation after all.) It's possible that the right-shoulder formation isn't through building, even if the OEX will eventually confirm that bullish formation and the confirmation should stick, something that hasn't happened yet. A break much below 563 would question this whole inverse H&S theory.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 12:37:05 PM

VXN.X 14.54 -0.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 12:36:48 PM

QQQQ $37.85 -0.05% ... updated daily interval bar chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 12:37:33 PM

NY AG Eliot Spitzer has anounced that that Time, Newsweek and the National Association of Attorneys General have reached an agreement whereby school library editions of Time, Newsweek, Sports Illustrated and People will create a "selective" binding that allows all tobacco ads to be removed.

Tab Gilles : 6/20/2005 12:27:46 PM

Update to 6/17 12:08PM post on 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (Leh) iShares (TLT) Sept 95 puts (TLTUQ) Link

Jan 95 puts (YLIMQ) Link

TLT Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 12:22:38 PM

Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 567.82 +0.97% ... trades 04/25/05 relative high (multi-year highs here).

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 12:20:53 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 12:15:36 PM

I've switched from the OEX's 15-minute chart to the 30-minute one, and the picture is different there. The OEX is testing 30-minute resistance at 571.08, on 30-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 12:12:32 PM

So far, the OEX's climb still looks bear flag-ish, and so far, the OEX is still well within the parameters of a potential H&S's right shoulder. However, I think that bears probably better get busy driving the OEX lower or else bulls will try driving it higher. On a Keltner basis, resistance still continues to hint at some softening.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 12:10:46 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 12:05:56 PM

SOX testing mid-channel resistance from below, the S/R level that it broke through earlier today. Bears want to see it hold.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 12:04:50 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 12:01:17 PM

QQQQ Option Chain at this Link ... July "Max Pain Theory" currently $38.00 ($1 increments)

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 12:02:03 PM

Here's the volume now, QQQQ closing its opening downside gap from 37.90: Link . Volume breadth remains negative however, 1.61:1 for declining NYSE volume and 1.33:1 for Nasdaq declining volume.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 12:00:41 PM

A rise much above OEX 573 would undo the possibility of a H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart. The climb so far looks bear flag-ish, but a strong zoom higher now would undo that impression.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 11:58:56 AM

QQQQ retesting the high here at 37.83, volume picking up but only slightly so far.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 11:56:20 AM

OEX attempts to break over the Keltner resistance at 570.67 (on 15-minute closes) with next resistance from 570.97-571.43 and with resistance above that at 572.96.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 11:52:53 AM

Molecular Devices (MDCC) $21.20 +9.84% ... favorable mention in this weekend's Barron's regarding likely upswing in earnings on growing demand for company's devices used to research important classes of drug targets known as ion channels and G-protein coupled receptors.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 11:51:44 AM

OEX still squeezed between Keltner support and Keltner resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 11:42:44 AM

July Crude (cl05n) $58.12 -0.59% (30-min. delayed) ... reverses earlier gains, still holds above bullishly fit 80.9% retracement of $58.04.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 11:42:30 AM

QQQQ is ticking back below the 72 SMA, and the short cycle indicators are fading from below overbought territory- only the volume needs to cooperate, volume still running near its lightest levels of the session. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 11:40:01 AM

DJUSHB now at 990.76, looking vulnerable to 981, totally erasing Friday's gains, but also a level from which we should expect a bounce attempt if it doesn't come earlier. I'm following this index just as a gauge of what's happening in the markets.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 11:41:03 AM

Cyberonics (CBYX) $41.30 +4.63% ... session high after morning low of $37.47. May be some short-covering here. May 13 short interest was 3,592,683 with average daily volume 675,266 putting days to cover at 5.32. Company's device for treatment of depression has found controversy from bulls and short-sellers.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 11:31:23 AM

QQQQ fails from 37.80 this time, a nominally lower high, and has just successfully tested 72 SMA support again at 37.72. So far, the bounce from the session lows has been on declining volume and is tracing a rough flag/rectangle. It looks corrective, but a break above 37.83 or below 37.72 on volume should provide a directional resolution to the range.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 11:27:19 AM

The OEX still finds resistance where bears want to see it find resistance, but it's also still finding support above 568.97-569.83, the mid-channel level. There's a hint of softening in resistance, but only a hint, and the nearest resistance continues to hold well.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 11:25:28 AM

The DJUSHB continues to drop.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 11:19:37 AM

Session low for July silver here, -.05 at 7.271 with gold down to a 1.8 gain at 439.70. The CRB is up 1.7 to 312.68, but on strength in agriculturals.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 11:27:27 AM

Selling 1/2 bullish position in Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.54 +1.05% around these levels. Based on monthly $0.075 dividend ($0.90 annual), would equate to 9.4% SEC Yield. Would look to book capital gains here, then look for pullback into $9.25 area to again hunger for yield for longer-dated maturity. From 03/17/05 (10:33:17) comments $9.16, cost basis including recent dividends ($8.935). From June 3/4 discussion with Tab Gilles (cost=$9.185)

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 11:16:27 AM

OEX still testing Keltner resistance just below 571, with the next resistance at 571.59.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 11:13:40 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 11:13:05 AM

Ten year note yields holding at 4.119%, after another unsuccessful attempt to crack 4.14%-4.16% confluence: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 11:09:03 AM

OEX still testing Keltner resistance near 571.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 11:04:41 AM

July crude is down to 58.40 for a .075 loss. Ten year note yields are up 4.1 bps at 4.119%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 11:03:30 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 11:01:40 AM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.52 +0.84% ... challenges it flat 200-day SMA.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 10:59:53 AM

DJUSHB at 996.73.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 10:58:47 AM

HJ Heinz (HNZ) $36.26 -0.19% ... Buys Group Donane's HP Foods and Lea & Perrins sauce business for $852 million as the French food group continues to simplify its non-core businesses. The brands, which are marketed primarily in Britain, U.S. and Canada accounted for approximately $292 million in revenue last year.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 10:56:57 AM

The OEX is squeezed now between strong Keltner support from 568.93-569.71 and strong resistance, from 570.80-571.06. I could see it breaking to the upside to 571.90 or so or to the downside, to 568.93 or so before we have much of an idea of what happens next.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 10:52:52 AM

The Wilshire 5000 is bouncing from its LOD, but so far, finding resistance on 15-minute closes at a Keltner line currently at 12,044.96. As long as it's doing that, it still looks vulnerable to a test of 12,000.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 10:51:45 AM

QQQQ surged to 37.83, the curent session high, and has returned to the 37.75 here Link as the short cycle indicators turn back up. Unless price falls back below hte 37.72 level a new upphase should confirm. This slot-rattling in a narrow range is significant only because there's been a lower low today below Friday's narrow range, and bulls could still be gunning for a break back above the 37.98 area that held for most of Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 10:49:41 AM

Sony Corp. (SNE) $35.33 -2.64% ... breaks to 7-month low after the U.S. Supreme Court did not rule on Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Studios vs. Grokster case, which may have major implications for the delivery of digital music, movies and software. The closely-watched ruling may come on Thursday when the court next releases its decisions. MGM is owned by Sony. MGM and other big-name movie and music companies have sued Grokster and StreamCast Networks, arguing the company's primary use of networks is for the illegal distribution of copyrighted material.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 10:49:22 AM

DJUSHB now at 998.83. It hasn't erased all of Friday's gains, however.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 10:44:22 AM

Big bounce in the OEX, not the measured, flag-like shape that bears would like to see. It is, however, finding resistance at the Keltner lines currently near 571, with further resistance at 572.11 and 573.25. Those with a bearish frame of mind might be testing the waters with a bearish play as 571 is being tested, but, if so, they should be setting tight stops. The time has long come and gone when we could trust that a H&S would be confirmed just because a potential formation setting up. The Keltner picture isn't entirely clear, either, as the neckline's support looks about as strong as the right shoulder's resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 10:42:45 AM

Volume breadth remains negative 1.59:1 on the NYSE and 1.42:1 on the Nasdaq, with the TRIN and TRINQ .86 and .93 respective.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 10:40:48 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,213.97, DIA $105.83, QQQQ $37.82.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 10:40:13 AM

Qualcomm (QCOM) $35.25 +1.00% ... higher despite Broadcom (BRCM) $35.32 -1.31% saying the U.S. International Trade Commission has launched an investigation into whether Qualcomm has engaged in unfair trade practices. Broadcom claims that rival Qualcomm has infringed on its patents.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 10:36:51 AM

QQQQ back into the premarket range and now tsting 72 SMA resistance at 37.74.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 10:36:04 AM

The RLS has dropped below 450, all the way down to test the top of the huge gap from January. It's been above that gap for four days now, but each succeeding day has shown more weakness as it climbed--longer upper shadow, etc. Bulls do not want to see the RLX fall back through that gap.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 10:35:59 AM

General Motors (GM) $35.78 +0.30% ... Ford (F) $11.16 -1.06% ... Banc of America raising its recommendation to "neutral" from "sell," on the world's #1 and #2 automakers, primarily because of the potential for healthcare liability reductions from the United Auto Workers union.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 10:34:06 AM

DJUSHB now at 1000.39 after briefly dipping to 999.70.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 10:29:27 AM

QQQQ continues its bounce, now 9 cents above the low and testing the premarket range support at 37.70 from below. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 10:28:58 AM

I wouldn't exactly say that the OEX is bouncing yet, but it is trying again to stabilize. Next Keltner resistance at just above 571 and then at just above 572, either of them appropriate right-shoulder levels for the possible H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 10:22:57 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 10:20:43 AM

5-day 3-min chart of QQQQ at this Link with price bouncing from daily S1 at 37.58 as the short cycle indicators roll over from a lower high. 72 SMA is down to 37.75 here, below which the 30 min and short cycles remain negative.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 10:19:28 AM

BIX is just above its 200-sma as I type, having also erased most of Friday's close. It could be just retesting the breakout level, but this is an important point and bulls do not want to see the BIX close here, at 364.86.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 10:17:18 AM

10 Most Active ... QQQQ $37.65 -0.58%, LU $3.04 +2.01%, CVC $33.46 +24.52%, MSFT $25.07 +0.11%, SPY $120.98 -0.31%, SIRI $5.98 -0.66%, MLNM $9.75 +3.50%, EBAY $36.68 -3.62%, ORCL $12.33 -0.08%, INTC $26.78 -1.25%

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 10:16:42 AM

The Wilshire 5000 has now erased all Friday's gains, but remains just above 12,000, at 12,020.69.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 10:15:50 AM

The DJUSHB tests 1000, at 1003.24 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 10:14:25 AM

July crude oil is up .275 at 58.75, off a low of 58.325.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 10:12:10 AM

The OEX sits on mid-channel support on its 15-minute nested Keltner channels. It hasn't been able to bounce yet, other than a single small-bodied candle. Not looking good. Watch for the potential for a H&S on its 15-minute chart, but that's still lacking a right shoulder as yet.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 10:08:44 AM

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 10:07:52 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 10:07:06 AM

Session lows across the board, QQQQ now testing descending channel support on a burst of volume. Bonds are at session lows as well, and gold is pulling back as HUI and XAU tick negative.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 10:07:46 AM

Keltner-wise, here's how the OEX looks: It's finding support on the midline of its rising regression channel, in place since the rise off the 6/09 low, finding support so far just above the 569.82-569.17 Keltner support. A bounce might be expected somewhere through here, but resistance now forms from 571.19-571.41 and bears would like to see that resistance hold. Bulls want the opposite, of course. With the shape of the decline, this might be the right place but the absolutely wrong time to try a bullish play. I wouldn't feel comfortable suggesting it in this climate. The end of the day might look very different from the current moment, but many indices look capable of producing reversal signals just where I was afraid they might this weekend, in the Wrap. Matters look very much more bearish than bullish, at least over the short-term and maybe over the intermediate term.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 10:03:05 AM

QQQQ holds below descending 72 SMA resistance as the 30 and 60 min channels decline to 37.61-37.63: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 10:01:46 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 10:01:44 AM




Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 10:01:28 AM

LEI -.5% vs. -.3% exp.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 9:58:18 AM

Don't you hate broadening formations? You'd have thought the OEX was "safe" in its breakout Friday, but I've been nervous about that broadening formation and a trendline drawn across the highs from 5/23 on show that Friday topped out right at that rising trendline.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 9:58:16 AM

Volume looks quite light so far, QQQQ at 9.59M shares.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 9:56:57 AM

The Fed's open market desk has announced a 4.5B overnight repo against no expiries, for a net add in that amount for the day.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 9:55:52 AM

TRAN turning lower, too, testing the 200-sma this morning and now having bounced slightly from that average, now at 3559.79 with the TRAN at 3569.18.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 9:54:37 AM

The OEX hasn't been too successful just yet--ahead of the 10:00 numbers--in bouncing. There's potential for a H&S on its 15-minute chart with a rise into the 572-573 level and rollover from there confirming the H&S potential. That's potential that would then need to be met by a downturn through the neckline, now at just over 570 but still rising. The formation would be invaldated by a climb above 574.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 9:53:16 AM

El Paso Corp. (EP) $11.68 +2.35% ... retraces 61.8% of its February high to April low.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 9:53:11 AM

Session low for ten year notes here at 112 13/64, TNX up 5 bps at 4.128%. Next resistance is the 4.14%-4.16% range. August gold is holding its 4 dollar gain at 441.90, though HUI and XAU are only fractionally higher.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 9:51:52 AM

This morning, the RUT violated those five-minute 100/130-ema's that have been prompting bounces over the short-term. It's rising now to retest them, with the 100-ema on this time frame at 643.22, and the RUT at 642.97. Bulls want to see the RUT over this average and closing the gap. Bears want to see a downturn through these averages again, and then through the 60-minute 21-ema, now at 640.26.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 9:51:21 AM

VIX.X 11.85 +3.22% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 10.91, 11.16, Piv= 11.29, 11.55, 11.68.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 9:48:54 AM

The Wilshire 5000 is attempting a to-be-expected bounce from Friday's low. It actually violated that low by a bit. Market bulls do not want to see the Wilshire 5000 close anywhere near the current 12037.34 level, but instead want to see a strong spring from this level. So far, the bounce is not strong.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 9:47:08 AM

Don't forget the L.E.I. data at 10AM, est. -0.3%, prior -0.2%.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 9:45:57 AM

Should be time for a bounce attempt on the OEX. Bears want to see 15-minute closes below a Keltner line currently at 571.73 and to see any rise look measured and flag-like.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 9:44:48 AM

The OEX is testing the midline of its former rising regression channel, a channel it violated to the upside for a couple of hours on Friday morning. It appears to be finding support there just above 570. Fifteen-minute Keltner support at 569.l17-569.59.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 9:43:26 AM

QQQQ is printing below Friday's low and approaches Thursday's, less than a dime away. The short cycle indicators are trying to roll over here, and so long as price holds below the 72 SMA at 37.78, the intraday bias remains bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 9:43:11 AM

eBay (EBAY) $36.76 -3.39% ... lower after rival Google (GOOG) $272.70 -2.65% said it expects to launch a payment application (Google Wallet) by the third quarter that will compete with eBay's PayPal.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 9:39:48 AM

Radiant Systems (RADS) $10.84 -6.63% ... percentage loser at the NASDAQ after the company announced a strategic partnership with Gateway Ticketing Systems where Gateway becoming a strategic reseller of Radiant's solution hardware, with a focus on self-service indoor and outdoor kiosks.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 9:47:12 AM

Early this morning, I noted many possibilities that concerned me with regard to bullish moves, and I'm seeing some of those concerns corroborated by early action. The OEX's drop is a quick one. The Wilshire 5000 turns down from the resistance I pointed out this weekend in the Wrap. The RLX gapped lower. You get the picture. Not sure whether we're seeing some opex-settlement related activity or whether there's real reason for concern here, but I don't know that I'd buy the dips with this kind of action.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 9:37:04 AM

Cablevision (CVC) $33.70 +25.41% ... The Dolan family, which controls majority stake in cable operator said it has offered to take the company private in a $7.9 billion deal.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 9:35:18 AM

RLX gapped lower this morning, and is currently testing the 450 level.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 9:34:45 AM

Wilshire turning down this morning, erasing nearly all of Friday's gains. It's still above 12,000, though, at 12,039.85 as I type. Bulls do not want to see the Wilshire 5000 close below Friday's opening level or 12,029.98.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 9:34:04 AM

Declining volume leads out of the gate 1.96:1 on the NYSE and 1.79:1 on the Nasdaq, with the TRIN and TRINQ both neutral at .79 and .78 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 9:31:47 AM

OEX falling toward 569.29-569.60 Keltner support on the 15-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 9:31:25 AM

RUT open is consistent with a potential evening-star formation, but today has only just begun.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 9:30:13 AM

QQQQ has ongoing 30 and 60 min cycle downphases this morning providing pre-market weakness, but there's a bearish kiss in the daily cycle indicators. On a daily basis, there's 20-day bollinger support at 37.42, and bears looking to restore the not-yet oversold daily cycle downphase will need to press that lower level to avoid what appears to be an imminent new upphase. On an intraday basis, the 30 and 60 min channel bottoms line up at 37.72.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2005 9:22:38 AM

Transkaryotic (TKTX) $34.25 Link ... higher at $36.75 after the the company reported positive Phase III clinical trial data regarding its treatment for Hunter syndrome, a rare genetic disorder that can lead to an enlarged liver and spleen, heart failure, decreased endurance, and sometimes disturbance of the central nervous system.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 9:05:46 AM

I prepared this post last night, before I saw this morning's futures levels, but for some reason, never even considered the possibility that the OEX might bounce immediately this morning. Turns out that it doesn't appear that it will, but bears should be cautious about expecting too large a decline. That's what we're waiting to see: how the pullback looks if it really does occur. Here's the post prepared last night.

The OEX finally did it. It finally closed above 570 and put to rest that whole is-it-rounding-over theory. It caught up with some other indices that had broken to the upside out of recent consolidation patterns. Unfortunately, it also left off the day building a possible H&S on top of the 15-minute 21-ema. It's been bouncing (on 15-minute closes) from that MA since the middle of the week and hasn't checked back in with the 100/130-ema's, currently at 569.90 and 569.43, since that time. It may soon be time for a pullback to test those MA's, and the 570-ish S/R. Watch for a bounce from that level as a potential buying opportunity.

I have a big, big caution, though. The Wilshire 5000 tested important resistance Friday and pulled back, so that there's now a potential double-top formation on the daily chart. The RUT broke out before other indices, but Friday printed a doji high on top of the rise, setting up the potential for an evening-star formation on the daily chart. The Nasdaq tested the neckline of a potential inverse H&S on the daily chart, and pulled back, and could be still chopping around in the right shoulder area, even if it's going to eventually confirm that formation. Ever since breaking out to the upside of its own inverse H&S, the RLX has printed small-bodied candles with upper shadows, and such rising candles looking a bit like a bearish reversal pattern known as an advance block, although it's not fulfilling all parameters of that formation. The SOX did not participate much in Friday's gains, closing positive but printing a doji inside the consolidation zone that's been present for several months. Can't help but be nervous about some of these signs. On the OEX's 120-minute chart, a chart that has seen the OEX bouncing from the 100/130-ema's all through June, there's a potential CCI ghost--a H&S on the CCI. That's a bearish sign. Watch the RUT and DWC particularly this morning, and if they're dropping fast instead of showing a measured bull-flag type pullback, then be careful about buying dips. Watch how the OEX approaches the 569.50-570 zone, if it does, as those considering new bullish entries don't want to see a quick drop.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 9:03:59 AM

My IB datafeed has just gone blank for Globex and Nymex futures- not sure whether my quotes are accurate this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 8:57:56 AM

Crude oil has corrected back to 58.90 from a high of 59.275, currently up 4.11%. There's been no resolution to the terrorist threats in Nigeria from Friday. The good news is that the S&P and Dow futures are still green, even as ten year bonds print session lows at 112 27/64 with TNX up 1.4 bps at 4.092%. For the time being, higher oil and higher rates are being ignored. QQQQ itself is down 14 cents at 37.73.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/20/2005 7:17:24 AM

Equities are mixed today, with ES trading up 1.25 at 1217, NQ down 3.5 at 1543.5, YM up 9 at 10614 and QQQQ down 12 cents at 37.75. Gold and silver are up, gold trading 441.60 and silver 7.384. July crude is up a whopping 2.55 at 59.125 and ten year bonds are down 9/64 at 112 9/16.

We await Leading Economic Indicators at 10AM, est. -.3%.

Linda Piazza : 6/20/2005 7:00:06 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei declined after six straight sessions of gains. Other Asian markets were mixed. European markets drop this morning. Late last week, a EU summit broke up without agreeing on a long-term budget, with some articles blaming the U.K. for sabotaging the budget talks. The failure to reach a deal weakened the euro. Our futures are weak. As of 6:37 EST, gold was up $1.90, and crude, up $.40 to $59.58. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

An article in Japan speculated that the central bank's tankan survey of business sentiment for June, due out July 1, will likely show a slight improvement for the first time in three quarters. Despite that news, it was time to take profits, investors decided. The Nikkei gapped higher Monday morning but then plummeted 60 points in a little over an hour and eventually was to reach a low of the day more than 80 points off that open. The Nikkei moved off that low into the close, however, and closed down 30.68 points or 0.27%, at 11,483.35. Somebody in Japan finally noticed the rising crude prices, and exporters dropped. Miners, oil explorers and other commodity-related issues still climbed in early trading and many closed higher, although one report claimed that concerns about crude prices capped gains in oil companies. Of special interest to U.S. traders might be a slashing of full-year profit estimates by MacDonald's Japan, although the company made that announcement Friday and MCD dropped heavily in response Friday, with U.S. markets already having an opportunity to react.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.05%, but South Korea's Kospi lost 0.90%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.53%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.24%. China's Bank of Communications Ltd., one of its largest lenders, set the price for its IPO, with that price near the high of its anticipated range. That initial public offering is to begin trading June 23, and the setting of the price near the high end of the range helped engender enthusiasm for Chinese stocks. The Shanghai Composite climbed 2.76%.

European markets decline, with the oil and gas-related sectors the only ones gaining. Various news reports negatively impacted the banking sector. Royal Bank of Scotland may set itself up as another suitor for HVB AG, bidding against Unicredito Italiano. All three entities declined in early trading. The U.K.'s Lloyds TSB Group mentioned slowing consumer spending as a reason for its projection that consumer lending growth for the first half would moderate from that seen in recent years. Other aspects of its update were consistent with prior ones, but the company's stock fell and the report impacted the banking sector.

Reports on sports channels this weekend talked about the fiasco in the U.S. Grand Prix this weekend, with fourteen cars running on Michelin tires taking the warm-up lap on the Grand Prix and then pulling off, not participating in the race. Runs prior to the race's opening showed that Michelin tires would not hold up and no compromise, such as a tactic to slow down on the most dangerous part of the run, could be reached. This morning, Michelin takes a hit as a result. In other company-specific news, Group Danone will sell a unit making sauces to H.J. Heinz & Co., with Danone still falling, although it's the selling and not the acquiring company. Novartis declined although it reported good news about blood pressure reductions when its Diovan drug is used in conjunction with a diuretic.

As of 6:44 EST, the FTSE 100 had declined 12.80 points or 0.25%, to 5,064.80. The CAC 40 had fallen 35.19 points or 0.83%, to 4,185.72. The DAX had fallen 38.44 points or 0.83%, to 4,566.13.

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