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Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 1:45:02 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.12 and set for program selling at $+3.44.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 10:47:32 PM

QQQQ last tick in Tuesday's extended session ... $37.94, with a boatload of ticks at $37.93 just prior. The Qs haven't been able to close above $37.95 since 06/09/05.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 10:42:09 PM

Setting some upside alerts on MSFT and QCOM at their Friday morning highs. Check out 30-minute intervals with volume turned on. Obvious option expiration related volume in both of these names. Remember QQQQ traded a morning high of $38.21 that morning and was quickly reversed. 30-minute close on the QQQQ was $37.93. Then today, QQQQ bottom "falls out" at 03:00-05 PM on HEAVY volume of 26.7 million shares (over 30-minute time) and that 30-minute high was... $37.93.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 10:33:15 PM

Incredible! ... College World Series (elimination round) ... Baylor comes back from 7-0 deficit to beat Tulane in 9th inning! Baylor 8 , Tulane 7

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 10:12:42 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 368.61 +0.29% ... formidable test here, but starts to look a little "hunchbacked" above 371. Link ... WEEKLY Interval bar chart at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 6/21/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 9:23:08 PM

NASDAQ Comp. (COMPX) daily interval chart at this Link ... When COMPX hit recent highs of 2,191.60 in early January, the 10-day NH/NL ratio reached 96.7%, while the BPCOMPQ Link was reading 61.44%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 8:15:18 PM

QQQQ closing option chain as VXN.X trades record lows at this Link .... Are bulls "overly optimistic" (Per Keene Little), or are bears growing "less optimistic" about their position? Somebody's selling a lot of puts today, and its not usually the "retail" trader that sells options. QQQQ June short interest should be reported in a few days.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 7:35:04 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Day traded long shares of Qualcomm (QCOM) at the offer of $35.28, stopped at $35.15 ($-0.13, or -0.37%). Raising bullish stops on the QQQQ and Wells Fargo (WFC)

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 7:07:27 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 6:09:57 PM

August Crude Oil futures (cl05q) $58.76 -0.47% (30-min delayed) ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $53.02, $56.13, Piv= $57.71, $60.83, $62.41. Note: On Monday, this contract gapped above its WEEKLY Pivot. Monday's settlement high matched that found in early April. This morning's floor trade high of $59.95 came just shy of of 04/04/05 contract high of $60.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 6:05:45 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... will roll to August for energy futures contracts at today's July Crude Oil settlement. July Crude Oil futures (cl05n) settled down $0.47, or -0.79% at $58.90. August Crude Oil futures (cl05q) settled down $0.84, or -1.4% at $59.04.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 5:28:18 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 5:01:04 PM

Airline Index (XAL.X) 50.51 +1.81% ... did close back above its 200-day SMA (49.57) and still rising 21-day SMA (50.38). Has been a long time since the XAL.X has held a re-test of 200-day SMA for more than a day or two.

Jim Brown : 6/21/2005 4:53:42 PM

Ford just slashed its outlook for the year by 20% and said it would cut 5% of its salaried workforce.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 5:03:52 PM

I agree with Marc's (04:14:54) futures post and that may have well been the setup we saw from 03:00 PM EDT on. Sell the indices lower, then buy long calls, then ramp the indices back higher to the close. If "smart money" knows of a sell-off in oil, then indices break above recent resistance, and ramp higher to end of quarter. Some very "funky" VIX.X, VXN.X and VXO.X action late this afternoon, that's for sure!

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 4:26:28 PM

Sorry, just realized that I was posting on the Futures side for a hefty portion of the afternoon. Sorry about that and thanks, Jane, for letting me know.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 4:17:35 PM

SPY goes out $121.47 .... $121.52 here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 4:16:55 PM

QQQQ $37.93 here

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 4:10:31 PM

Buy Program Premium SPY 121.43, DIA $105.96

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 4:09:48 PM

SPY ... 453,400 trade at $121.27 (04:08:52)

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 4:00:39 PM

Nothing overly unusual in OEX option chain. July $570 Puts (OEB-SN) $4.70 most active at 3,550, July $550 Puts (OEB-SJ) $0.80 2nd-most at 2,234. With VXO.X dripping, "has to be" put selling.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 4:00:00 PM

As a return to the scene of the crime rally below the 5-day pennant support line, QQQQ is falling short. Link The low volatility readings here look like a negative divergence against the relatively lower price highs.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 3:58:07 PM

OEX.X 571.21 -0.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 3:57:45 PM

VXO.X alert 10.08 -4.27% ... also plunging.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 3:56:29 PM

VXN.X alert 13.49 -8.23% ... plunging here... big buyer of calls?

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 3:55:40 PM

QQQQ $37.89 +0.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 3:53:36 PM

Hold on .... The Sep. $40 Calls (QQQ-IN) $0.30 saw 4,500 trade at $0.35. Currently #6 with 4,851 contracts traded.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 3:53:20 PM

VXO 10.11 here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 3:51:52 PM

Notes: QQQQ July $38 Call (QQQ-GL) $0.45 is #3 most active (10,452). At 03:00-05 did drop from $0.50-$0.45 on 1,794 contracts. Of most active options, this is only one I see that had some significant volume at time of QQQQ quick drop.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 3:48:38 PM

VXO 10.19, QQV 12.81

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 3:47:16 PM

QQQQ $37.86

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 3:46:55 PM

VXN.X 14.16 -3.67% ... still pinned at session lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 3:41:19 PM

Volume is declining on the bounce so far Link , but that could change in an instant. 37.90 is the goal to return to the previous range and regain the 72 SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 3:36:10 PM

QQQQ $37.832 -0.13% ... back above WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 3:35:27 PM

Catuity (CTTY) $17.15 +328.75% ... where did this cat come from? Software developer surged on deal with CertifiChecks. Terms were not disclosed, but the agreement is the first contract for CTTY's Advanced Loyalty System loyalty and gift card software. CertifiChecks will deploy CTTY's software as a turnkey hosted application to be sold to merchants and chain stores already using CertifChecks' paper-based products.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 3:30:19 PM

VXO 10.28- I wonder if we'll see single-digits today?

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 3:27:05 PM

NDX volatility (QQV) is actually down 1.12% at 13.2 here. The VXO is printing 10.36, in the vicinity of decade lows, VXN -2.65% at 14.31.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 3:26:40 PM

QQQQ $37.75 -0.31% ... intra-day 5-minute with volume turned on at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 3:20:51 PM

Declining volume now leads on both exchanges, 1.42:1 on the NYSE and 1.12:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 3:18:46 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... on the QQQQ $37.75 -0.31% ... to $37.65. Unlike this morning, seeing some resistance at WEEKLY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 3:16:18 PM

Intraday QQQQ update, holding below 5-day pennant support: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 3:14:17 PM

QQQQ $37.76 ... BIIIIIG volume of 12.2 million on that 5-minute decline (03:00-03:05) from $37.93-$37.72.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 3:13:00 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 3:10:14 PM

Volume breadth has yet to go negative on the Nasdaq, now 1.05:1 in favor of advancing shares, 1.19:1 for NYSE decliners.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 3:08:15 PM

This news may have something to do with it:

Bush encourages Social Security bill without private investment accounts

WASHINGTON - President Bush encouraged a Republican senator Tuesday to offer Social Security legislation that would not include the private investment accounts that were the centerpiece of the plan Bush has promoted all year.

Bush's nod to Utah Sen. Bob Bennett comes as public polls show that most Americans do not support the president's handling of the Social Security issue. Congress has been deadlocked on it.

Bennett said that during a luncheon with other Republican senators at the White House, he told the president of his plans to introduce the bill as early as next week.

Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 3:05:07 PM

QQQQ $37.82 -0.13% ... seeing selling

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 3:04:38 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert ... QCOM $35.15

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 3:03:49 PM

This is looking like the downside break of that pennant: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 3:02:02 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 3:00:32 PM

Shifting to a 5-day, 15-min candle view, QQQQ appears to be in a long pennant Link that, if the spike open on Friday is filtered out, looks almost like a rising triangle. There's little importance to the distinction, because a pennant is usually (though not earlier this afternoon) a continuation pattern, and in this case should break to the upside- just as the rising triangle is also bullish. Bear in mind that staring at a slow screen can be like staring at clouds- eventually you can see anything you want in it. If this is a pennant, a break above 38, confirmed with a move above 38.10, could be "the" breakout. Either way, look for a confirm surge in volume.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 2:54:56 PM

SPY 121.47 ... do ya think bulls could get a buy program above MONTHLY R1?

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 2:53:40 PM

Headlines:

SNOW REPEATS OPPOSITION TO CHINA TARIFF BILL

SNOW REPEATS CHINA MUST MOVE TO FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 2:48:53 PM

The OEX still coils within its triangle. This 15-minute period, it's attempted a move higher, but hasn't moved far from that Keltner line currently at 572.06. Still just coiling.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 2:48:10 PM

Day trade long alert ... for shares of Qualcomm (QCOM) $35.28 here, stop $35.16, target $35.67 by the close.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 2:47:22 PM

Let's take a chance ....

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 2:41:01 PM

August crude oil finsihed lower by 75 cents at 59.125, off a low of 58.925. Intraday 50 tick chart at this Link .

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 2:36:27 PM

The TRAN is attempting the "push through the resistance" version of its two choices as it was squeezed between resistance and support, as it's pushing tentatively up through the Keltner resistance that's been pushing it down all day. I hesitate to make too much of this, however, as the breakout isn't strong, is early in the 15-minute period and is within the TRAN's coiling pattern. With markets failing to get anything going during the earlier stop-running time of day, however, it's nice just to have something to watch. Perhaps.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 2:37:26 PM

Bon-Ton Stores (BONT) $19.66 +17.37% Link ... percentage gainer at the NASDAQ. The department store operator said it has agreed to sell its credit card business to HSBC Retail Services, but will still receive a portion of revenue generated from future credit card revenue. Story at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 2:37:42 PM

Taser Intl. (TASR) $10.78 +2.47% ... stock jumped to $11.24 just after 12:30 PM EDT after company said it received four orders for its TASER X26 guns. Orders came from Calgary Police, Honolulu Police, Houston Police and an unnamed law enforcement agency. Orders totaled approximately $1 million.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 2:27:27 PM

Volume breadth is back to mixed, 1.03:1 for declining NYSE shares, 1.72:1 for advancing Nasdaqs. Price is net unchanged from last Thursday, as appears from the compressed 3 min/5 day chart: Link . This is either an accumulation or distribution zone, but what's clear is that until the range breaks, the flats are handily beating both bulls and bears.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 2:24:08 PM

The TRAN has been pressured down all day by a Keltner line that's currently at 3464.20, with the TRAN currently just a few cents above that. It's time for the TRAN to either break through to the upside or break through Keltner supoort down to 3551.04 to the downside, though, as the TRAN is now being squeezed between the two.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 2:21:40 PM

SPY 121.51 TRIN 0.97 VIX.X 11.05

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 2:15:02 PM

They're baaaack ... SPY 121.58

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 2:13:27 PM

In Jonathan's Wrap last night, he made a convincing case for long-term rising wedges on the daily charts for many indices. Now that's what I see when I look at the OEX's chart, too, with that broadening formation I've been mentioning within the rising wedge. These rising wedges are supposedly bearish developments, but it seems as if as many have broken out to the upside over the last three years as they have to the downside, so we just have to watch the parameters of these formations.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 2:11:09 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 2:10:54 PM

RUT negative now, but not by much.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 2:08:53 PM

Session high for August gold at 441.20, +1.30 and off its 436.10 low. Crude oil back to a 57.5 cent loss at 59.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 2:05:06 PM

QQQQ 2-day chart at this Link with price continuing its drift along the 72 SMA. The 30 and 60 min cycle upphases are so far tractionless and corrective, as were the downphases that preceded it.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 2:02:24 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link ... the hunger for "junk bonds" continues!

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 1:57:58 PM

SPY intra-day 5-minute interval chart with volume turned on and yesterday's note of volume ABOVE MONTHLY R1. Chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 2:00:31 PM

OEX still coiling, as are many other indices. We just have to wait for a breakout one direction or the other now. One index not coiling is the BIX, but it's ascending higher in either an extended narrow-gauge rising regression channel or else a rising wedge, a presumably bearish shape but not that you'd know it lately.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 1:56:53 PM

Little sell program here. Right from MONTHLY R1. Chart to follow.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 1:48:39 PM

The OEX's 15-minute candles still perch along a Keltner line currently at 571.79.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 1:48:27 PM

Advancing volume is now ahead 1.91:1 on the Nasdaq and 1.02:1 on the NYSE, the TRIN at 1.0 and the TRINQ .58.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 1:46:11 PM

U.S. Energy (USEG) $3.81 -4.75% ... once hot "uranium plays" have been put in the cooler of late.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 1:44:49 PM

Spire Corp. (SPIR) $8.25 -8.23% ... reversed gains from opening 15-minutes of trade.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 1:43:00 PM

Big volume spike here for QQQQ, over 2M shares within 3 minutes, but price continues to hold on the 72 SMA at 37.90: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 1:36:40 PM

Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 199.07 +1.11% ... get today's "comeback" of the day award after trading a session low of 194.36.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 1:36:27 PM

Having topped the May high, the BIX now tests the March 7 high of 369.19, with the BIX at 368.91 and the HOD at 369.09. This looks as if it would be confirmation of an inverse H&S on this index, but the BIX hasn't broke out yet, and then would soon face the 370-ish S/R level from late last year.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 1:30:58 PM

Commodity Futures Watch ... just captured at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 1:24:33 PM

The Treasury's 4-week bill auction had a yield of 2.78% with 3.06 bids tendered for each accepted. Indirect bidders took 1.9B of the 8B total. Currently, ten year treasuries are holding near their highs, with TNX down 5.4 bps at 4.049%, a 1.32% decline today.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 1:22:21 PM

OEX still coiling along a Keltner line currently at 571.69.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 1:21:50 PM

Session high for August crude at unchanged, 59.875. QQQQ is testing 72 SMA support after flipping back below the pennant apex, breaking below as I type: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 1:11:52 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link ... NH/NL readings just about where we left off at yesterday's close. NYSE not getting the help from energy, but NASDAQ a little stronger reading (less NLs)

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 1:10:48 PM

We have about 30 minutes until the typical stop-running time of day begins, but as I study the OEX's 15-minute chart, I see a possibility that it could begin a little earlier. It looks as if resistance may be thinning a little, allowing for an upside test. Trouble is, it's been thinning over the last couple of hours, and the OEX still hasn't risen. The coiling action is taking precedence.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 1:08:37 PM

August crude oil is up to a 15 cent loss at 59.725, 12.5 cents below the session high.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 1:04:16 PM

Volume breadth strengthened to a 1.91:1 lead for advancing Nasdaq shares, but QQQQ is coming back to retest the pennant apex after breaking above it. It's been years since I've read Bulkowski's "Encyclopedia of Chart Patters," but I suspect that his statistical model would be far less decisive or clear if he were to generate the studies today. For instance, it seems that pennants stage false breaks far more often then they used to.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 1:03:16 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 12:59:51 PM

Looks like a lot of supply above 35 for QCOM: Link . But the daily shows a possible reverse h&s below the gap at the 200 SMA on the daily Link . If so, bulls need to rally it above 35 to form the right shoulder. My guess is that the weekly chart/bearish picture will prevail there, if it doesn't just slide sideways along with everything else.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2005 12:59:17 PM

Dateline WSJ Former Klansman Edgar Ray Killen found guilty of three counts of manslaughter in 1964 slayings of three civil rights workers.

I will not add my comment to this for fear of offending some.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 12:58:03 PM

Another of those not-to-be-trusted continuation-form inverse H&S's on the SOX's 15-minute chart, neckline at about today's high. Although continuation-form inverse H&S's aren't to be particularly trusted, at least not in my experience, that doesn't mean that this one shouldn't be watched.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 12:54:23 PM

Upside break for QQQQ from the pennant apex on a small burst of volume: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 12:54:10 PM

Ooooeeee! Jonathan ... Have you seen this chart when looking at NDX/QQQQ "heavy weights?" ... QCOM bar chart Link and PnF chart Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 12:42:48 PM

QQQQ's testing upper pennant resistance within a broader pennant, deep within the primary apex: Link . With any luck the break will be to the up- or downside, and no sideways as sometimes occurs. The broader pennant has support at 37.79, resistance at 38.03.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 12:40:59 PM

The OEX still coils. Top of the triangle now at about 573.15, with Keltner resistance just above at 573.42. Bottom at about 570.44, with Keltner support just below at 569.57.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 12:35:08 PM

VXN.X 14.43 -1.83% ... still looks bullish. Might check QQQQ option chain, see if we still see bullish rollout to July/September option chains.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 12:33:40 PM

TRIN 1.05 +23.52% ... either side of 1.0 today, building a pennant. Hasn't wanted to show a 5-minute close below its DAILY Pivot (0.87) so far today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 12:31:25 PM

Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $48.33 -0.04% ... (not a BIX.X component)

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 12:30:30 PM

Wells Fargo (WFC) $61.66 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 12:26:42 PM

QQQQ $37.92 +0.13% ... day trader might note that 5-minute chart shows a "doji" open/close from 11:30-35 at $37.84. That's your DAILY pivot. Let's see if bulls leverage that shallow pullback. There's not a bank in the bunch, but could be a beginning to break this near-term range.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 12:23:09 PM

Advancing volume continues to lead on the Nasdaq, 1.76:1, while declining volume leads 1.02:1 on the NYSE. The TRIN is at 1.02, TRINQ at .68.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 12:24:01 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 368.81 +0.35% ... small favor to bulls here. MONTHLY R1, WEEKLY R1 and DAILY R2 rather correlative. Might be tough to get the move above these levels if we don't get some selling at the end of the curve. Banks borrow at short end, lend at long end. Need those margins!!!

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 12:21:53 PM

OEX still coiling. Maybe there's hope that the stop-running time of day will get a move started some direction or the other. Or both.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 12:18:15 PM

Session highs for ten year notes, ZN +27/64 at 112 51/64, TNX down 4.4 bps at 4.059%. August crude is down .40 at 59.475 as gold and silver print session highs. QQQQ has regained the 72 SMA above 37.90, stalling but not yet reversing the short cycle downphase.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 12:21:15 PM

Englobal Corp. (ENG) $3.60 (unch) ... continued from 11:42:26 ... Here's some work with retracement on a DAILY interval bar chart. Using PINK as bullish fit 38.2%, while BLUE is somewhat "conventional" with upper at current PnF chart's bullish vertical count. Chart at this Link ... some quick thoughts .... 1) Assuming I bought shares on the recent pullback at $3.19, I have to give a stop some room, say at least 6% ($3.03 from $3.19 = 5.956%). 2) Note how the 08/03/2003 high, resulting PINK 50%, and resulting BLUE 38.2% build the current level of resistance? OK, bullish next close above that level. 3) I'd like to do a little more work with retracement, see if I can't "expain why" ENG stopped where it did at/above the $4.00 level? Why didn't it just run to $4.45-$4.58? Somebody's selling that level and when I find out, I'll probably find out where they're a buyer on weakness. That is .... if the stock is going to $8.00. (to be continued)....

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 12:13:59 PM

RUT still slightly positive. RLX still negative. BIX at or near its HOD, now above yesterday's and the 6/01 high. SOX positive but inside the recently narrowed consolidation pattern. TRAN near the flat-line level. The Wilshire 5000 slightly negative. Nasdaq rising toward the neckline of its inverse H&S, but doing it within a coiling formation. And it goes on.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 12:11:58 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 12:03:07 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 12:01:38 PM

From Marketwatch:

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Senate on Tuesday blocked an effort by coastal senators to strip a measure from a broad energy bill that would authorize an inventory of oil and gas resources off the nation's coasts. The energy bill pending before the Senate would allow the federal government to carry out seismic testing in the outer continental shelf area to better identify potential underwater energy reserves. Senators from Florida, California, and New Jersey, concerned that the inventory will lead to the repeal of an existing moratorium on offshore drilling, offered the amendment to eliminate the inventory from the energy bill. But the Senate defeated the amendment 44-52.

Front-month August crude is currently down .275 at 59.60, holding within the day range.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 11:58:36 AM

QQQQ back to unchanged at 37.87, holding below the 72 SMA at 37.91 with the short cycle holding in its recent downphase. The current bounce off 37.80 has a flaggy feel, but this range has been a blender for days now and the intraday indicators aren't displaying much confidence in either direction. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 11:58:02 AM

I don't want to say too much now about where Keltner resistance or support may lie, because it's clear that the OEX is again settling into an equilibrium position with respect to its 15-minute Keltner charts and mid-channel S/R, at least, won't mean much if that happens. Neither will the squiggles of the oscillators. I'm watching the narrowing formation and also the rising regression channel that's been in place since May 9, and just letting them guide me. The OEX is just above the midline of that rising regression channel, coiling in what had looked like a H&S and now perhaps looks more like a neutral triangle.

Tab Gilles : 6/21/2005 11:45:19 AM

TLT 30 minute chart Link

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 11:44:36 AM

The OEX is just coiling so far and that's a word I'm beginning to dread.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 11:40:59 AM

Headline:

TREASURY'S SNOW TO TESTIFY ON CHINA IN CONGRESS THURS.

Tab Gilles : 6/21/2005 11:44:30 AM

TLT Up over 94.5 level. sold Sept 95 puts (TLTUQ) both 6/8 $2.10 1/2 position and 6/17 $2.80 position at $2.50. Link

Sell Jan 95 puts (YLIMQ) entered $3.60 @ $4.10. Link Link Link

Between Sweden and EU looking to cut rates and news that Pimco's Bill Gross calling for Fed to cut rates by year end. I've closed put positions.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 11:38:21 AM

GMX Resources Warrants (GMXRW) $2.97 -5.71% ... (50% of bullishly fitted 38.2%)

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 11:36:29 AM

Ten year treasuries have stabilized, TNX currently down 3 bps at 4.073%. August crude is down .375 at 59.50.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 11:31:13 AM

The Wilshire 5000 drops again toward that neckline, although now I think I'd more likely describe the formation as a neutral triangle than as a H&S.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 11:42:26 AM

Question ... small cap Englobal Corp. (AMEX:ENG) $3.60 (unch) Link ... Hi Jeff, Can you provide any insight on ENG? Fib levels and P&F chart if you have time? ... Reply: ENG provides engineering consulting and control system service to the petroleum refining, petrochemical, pipeline, production, and process industries throughout the U.S. and internationally. In essence, it's an "oil service" company. ENG's point and figure chart gave a reversing higher point and figure buy signal on 05/31/05 when it traded $3.50. The resulting column of X ($2.25-$4.00) now gives us a bullish vertical count to $8.00. Risk to a negating PnF sell signal is to $1.75, or RISK=$1.85 , with potential reward to $8.00 being $4.40 from current levels.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 11:25:57 AM

OEX perhaps headed down to test Keltner support again, with first support being tested now and next support from 570.33-570.74. Below that, there's further support at 569.34, one reason the OEX was having trouble breaking through that H&S neckline.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 11:24:24 AM

QQQQ $37.89 +0.05% ... either side of DAILY Pivot. At some point, would look for daily pivot to serve support, or resistance on a test, but wish-wash so far.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 11:22:42 AM

Little sell program just underway

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 11:21:21 AM

QQQQ is chopping sideways here just above 72 SMA support at 37.90: Link . A break below that level will stall the short cycle upphase. The 30 min channel is already moving sideways, directionless as QQQQ continues to hold easily within yesterday's range. Immediate resistance to get things moving is at 38.00, support at the 72 SMA followed by the daily pivot at 37.82.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 11:16:14 AM

Session high for August gold at 439.20, -.70 for the day, with HUI -.4% at 196.08 and XAU -.33% at 91.09. The CRB is down 1.65 at 312.11.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 11:13:33 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 11:08:39 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 11:05:11 AM

The SOX did test Friday's high, with Friday's HOD 432.82 and today's 432.97. The SOX is now at 431.29, pulling back from that test, but still within a narrow ascending regression channel that began building yesterday as it climbed off the early morning low.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 11:03:37 AM

August crude oil -.20 at 59.675, current low 59.20.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 11:03:02 AM

Neither the OEX nor the Wilshire 5000, two indices I'm watching today, has moved above the appropriate right-shoulder level yet, but those right shoulders are getting awfully extended timewise, and I'm not sure the potential H&S's have that much validity any longer.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 11:01:39 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 11:00:42 AM

The SOX made it to daily R2 at 433 and has pulled back to its current 431.44, with daily R1 currently lined up with short cycle channel support at 431. A break below that targets rising 72 SMA support at 429.80.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 10:54:31 AM

I've been scanning daily Keltner charts. Those charts show that the Wilshire 5000 has to close below 11,986.66 on a daily basis before there's a change in trend. The OEX's trend hasn't been as strong, with the OEX showing a pattern of alternating closes above, below and at the analogous Keltner line through much of May. What can be said is that as long as the OEX produces daily closes above 569.67, it looks likely to continue challenging overhead resistance, at 574.82 on the daily chart. That's also near the top of the OEX's broadening formation, of course.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 10:54:23 AM

Career Education (CECO) $38.00 +2.73% Link ... percentage gainer in the NDX/QQQQ. In a "bull confirmed" market, the bearish signal reversed is profitable 92% of the time for an average gain of 23.2% in 2.5 months. (Professor Earl Davis, Purdue University)

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 10:47:52 AM

Session high for ten year notes, TNX now down 3.8 bps at 4.065%. The TNX's daily cycle upphase is not yet stalled, but a close below current levels, (currently the 22 day EMA) should do the trick: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 10:46:55 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 10:43:09 AM

The OEX moves up toward 15-minute Keltner resistance at 573.50, with that resistance usually stopping the OEX on 15-minute closes. . . unless there's to be a breakout, of course. That remains in the realm of possibility, but it's difficult to weigh the potential for an upside explosion against the potential for a downturn when the OEX is still within that broadening formation.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 10:41:13 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,216.31, DIA $106.18, QQQQ $38.01

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 10:41:01 AM

Volume breadth is mixed, -1.03:1 on the NYSE and +1.77:1 on the Nasdaq, with the TRIN .99 and the TRINQ .62. Volume is light overall, and so far the first hour has traded inside yesterday's range. The short cycle indicators are lagging the quick upward move, but are now on the cusp of imminent buy sigals: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 10:40:19 AM

Brazil iShares (AMEX:EWZ) $24.96 +0.24% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 10:35:00 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... for the QQQQ $37.93 +0.15% ... to $37.55

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 10:32:12 AM

As I speculated earlier, the Wilshire 5000 was doing too much testing of the neckline of its H&S and not enough falling beneath it, and there might be a rise into a second right shoulder if not an invalidation of the formation. That rise into the right shoulder level is happening now.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 10:32:05 AM

QQQQ surges back above the 72 SMA. Upside resistance is at daily R1, where the 30 and 60 min channels currently line up, at 38.04-38.07. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 10:38:51 AM

Global ... Brazil's Central Bank see June Current Acct. surplus of $1 Billion. May surplus $615 million; 12-mo Current Acct. surplus $13.38 billion, 2.06% of GDP. The country's Central Bank upped its 2005 trade surplus forecast to $30 billion.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 10:30:01 AM

TRAN bouncing with the other indices, up from its 200-sma, but it's been finding resistance for the last few tries at its 100-sma at 3611.88 and the midline of its rising regression channel, now just above 3600. The TRAN is at 3572.71 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 10:29:22 AM

Little buy program here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 10:28:08 AM

Krispy Kreme Doughnut (KKD) $7.50 -2.21% ... released for trade.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 10:25:56 AM

August crude oil (QMQ5) has reopened, and is down .30 at 59.575, off a high of 59.875.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2005 10:25:26 AM

Dateline WSJ AMC Entertainment Inc. and Loews Cineplex Entertainment Corp. announced an agreement to merge, in a deal that joins two major movie theater chains.

The merged company, to be called AMC Entertainment Inc., will be based in Kansas City, Mo., and will own, manage or have interests in about 450 theatres with about 5,900 screens. Peter C. Brown, currently AMC's chairman, chief executive and president, will remain in those roles in the merged company.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 10:25:02 AM

TRAN is at its 200-sma, having rolled over to retest it again today. It bounced from this average yesterday, but will it today?

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 10:23:53 AM

The SOX bounced above its 72 SMA at 429. First short cycle resistance is at 430.7, just below daily S1 at 431, followed by the 30 min channel top at 431.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 10:22:41 AM

The OEX attempts a bounce from the midline of its rising regression channel and Keltner mid-channel support, both just above the OEX's neckline version for its potential H&S.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 10:21:54 AM

Wilshire 5000 still testing that neckline without really falling far enough below it to reassure bears. If the Wilshire doesn't fall soon, it may at least rise into another rise shoulder if not reject the formation altogether.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 10:16:44 AM

NDX volatility (QQV) is up 1.12% to 13.5, Nasdaq volatility (VXN) +.68% to 14.80. Volume breadth is negative, the TRINQ is positive, and price is down. But it's all looking minor here, and volume quite light so far for QQQQ as well. The bears are going to have to do better than this.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 10:13:59 AM

The Wilshire 5000 drops reluctantly (a warning to bears?) below the neckline of its H&S, toward 12,012 Keltner support and 12,000 psychological support. It's at 12031.14 as I type. Bears need to see acceleration to the downside and a move below 12,000.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 10:17:49 AM

Krispy Kreme Doughnut (KKD) Link ... Special Committee of independent directors of KKD informed the company's senior management that the Special Committee had concluded that six of the company's officers should be discharged. The six officers include four senior vice presidents and were in areas of operations, finance, business development, and manufacturing/distribution. Five individuals have resigned, while one has retired. The company intends, for the time being, to fill these positions with existing personnel. The Sepcial Committee said it is continuing its investigation and is cooperating fully with the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York and the SEC.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 10:12:01 AM

Krispy Kreme Doughnut (KKD) $7.67 (unch) ... halted for trade. News pending.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 10:10:44 AM

OEX Keltner support at 570.20 and then 569.28. Resistance from 571.33-51.69 and then again near 572.87-573.38.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 10:09:57 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 10:09:04 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 10:08:59 AM

Wilshire 5000 slipping just below its neckline for its H&S, but still within a testing range, and still above 12013 Keltner support and 12000 psychological support. The Wilshire 5000 is at 12,034.15 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 10:06:22 AM

I show the OEX slightly above the neckline for its H&S, with one version of that neckline at about 569.80.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 10:05:30 AM

I show the Wilshire 5000 sitting right on the neckline for its potential H&S, with Keltner resistance below this, at 12013.04. The Wilshire 5000 is at 12,036.13.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 10:03:00 AM

Declining volume now leads 1.69:1 on the NYSE and 1.31:1 on the Nasdaq, the TRIN up to 1.24 and the TRINQ 1.07.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 10:02:54 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 10:02:01 AM

Marc mentioned the Saudi news (they said they can pump more), but that news was mixed. They reportedly also said that they can't do anything about the refining capabilities and blamed the inability to refine enough crude as part of the problem for rising prices. According to one forex news source, European figures have lately shown May's gasoline and distillate output declining from April's levels.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 10:00:50 AM

VIX.X 11.59 +1.04% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 10.89, 11.15, Piv= 11.56, 11.82, 12.23

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 9:58:34 AM

The market dropped as the Fed announced a 3.25B overnight repo to replace the 4.5B expiring, resulting in a small net drain of 1.25B.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 9:58:05 AM

The Wilshire 5000's H&S neckline appears to be at about 12,036, if I've drawn it correctly. Below that is 15-minute Keltner resistance at 12,012.57-12,014.25.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 9:55:50 AM

Marc may have already noted its value today, but the SOX's weekly 200-sma is at 424.79. Currently the SOX is 430.31.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 9:55:45 AM

Ten year bonds are back to the highs, ZN futures up 1/4 to 112 41/64. QQQQ has broken back below the 72 SMA but is holding in its premarket range. Because of the young buy signal in the daily cycle, the bears are rapidly running out of time to turn this around. A break of yesterday's low on a closing basis is needed to stall that preliminary buy signal- if not, the bulls will be back in control after what amounted to little more than a consolidation.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 9:54:02 AM

Those H&S necklines seen on many indices may see a test this morning, although I thought yesterday afternoon, they were about to see a test, too, and indices shot up high enough that they almost but not quite invalidated the formations.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 9:51:57 AM

The Wilshire is also dropping towad the trendline off yesterday's low, and below that, the neckline of its potential H&S.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 9:51:13 AM

RLX dropping back toward the trendline off yesterday's low.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 9:49:57 AM

OEX still not breaking free of Keltner resistance, and may hint at turning down below it again. There's significant Keltner support beneath the OEX, but it's scattered as yet. If there was a strong sell program to drive the OEX lower, it might get through all that Keltner support, but if the OEX just bounces gently back and forth, it will likely have time to firm.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 9:48:29 AM

The SOX has risen to test 15-minute Keltner resistance, with that resistance containing most candle bodies lately. The 30-minute Keltner resistance has been containing the day's ranges since 6/15, though, including the candle shadows. That 30-minute resistance is up at 433.46.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 9:44:33 AM

The OEX still challenges first Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart, slightly above it (by a few cents) but not convincingly breaking free as the first 15-minute period draws to a close.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 9:43:48 AM

Ten year notes firmed along with equities, though gold and silver are holding in negative territory. QQQQ ran up to daily R1 and stopped dead, currently testing 72 SMA support from above. The 30 min cycle downphase is stalled, a break below 37.80 or above 37.96 should decide whether it will continue lower or reverse upward.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 9:43:31 AM

Commercial Metals (CMC) $24.89 -8.25% Link ... lower after the manufacturer, recycler and marketer of steel and metal products reported Q3 earnings of $1.14 per share, which missed Wall Street's mark by $0.11, or $1.25 per share. The company said revenues rose 22.7% year-over-year to $1.73 billion, which was above consensus calling for $1.66. CMC guided Q4 for EPS of $1.15-$1.30, with consensus at $1.35.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 9:43:11 AM

My charts are slow, despite my efforts to change servers several times. I'm not certain that the prices I'm mentioning are accurate. Levels of Keltner resistance and support should be, but the actual prices of the various indices might not be.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 9:42:02 AM

SOX climbing this morning, soon to challenge Friday's high if it keeps going. Friday's high was 432.82 and the SOX is currently at 431.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 9:39:29 AM

Advancing volume leads 2.95:1 on the Nasdaq and 1.49:1 on the NYSE, the TRIN bullish at .5, not yet extreme, and the TRIN neutral at .85.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 9:38:42 AM

GMX Resources Warrants (GMXRW) $3.27 +3.80% .... raising stop to $2.60 from just under $2.18 in personal account.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 9:36:20 AM

RUT slightly positive this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 9:36:02 AM

QQQQ is holding on the 72 SMA, the short cycle downphase still on a sell signal from yesterday's close. The oversold wavelet oscillator is tracking the bounce, and this is where bears will want to see it begin trending in oversold territory. QQQQ is breaking above the 72 SMA as I type. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 9:35:52 AM

The OEX bounced from just above the ascending trendline off yesterday's low. Next Keltner resistance at 572.08 with resistance above that up at th 573.06-573.27 level, this on the 15-minute chart and with regard to 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 9:37:14 AM

Books-A-Million (BAMM) $9.70 +15.75 Link ... bookstore chain saying its board of directors has approved a tender offer to buy nearly 25% of the outstanding stock. A Dutch auction will be used to buy nearly 4 million shares at a price between $8.75-$10.00.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 9:32:36 AM

RLX slightly negative this morning. BIX flat.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 9:31:00 AM

First OEX print is below yesterday's close and the OEX heads down to the ascending trendlien off yesterday's low, at just over 571.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 9:29:56 AM

Ten year notes now fractionally positive, with the ten year note yield (TNX) -.6 bps at 4.097%. The Treasury is auctioning a small 8B worth of 4-week bills today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 9:26:03 AM

Celgene (CELG) $42.35 Link ... #6 most active and higher at $43.01 after the company said its new drug application for Revlimid, a treatment for myelodysplastic syndormes, was granted priority review status by the FDA.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 9:23:03 AM

Rather quiet pre-market.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2005 9:10:00 AM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.12 and set for program selling at $+3.58.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 9:09:58 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle rolled over at session's end and is in a downphase, the 60 min cycle stalled below the midpoint of its range. This is a bearish intraday setup, and should so remain below 37.88, the current location of the 72 SMA. Current 60 min channel resistance is at 38.02, 30 min resistance above it at 38.12. A move below 37.75 support will confirm the current weakness, and below the 37.70, the 60 min cycle downphase should commence.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 8:51:53 AM

Yesterday morning and in this weekend's Wrap, I noted several signs I'd be watching that the markets might be ready for a pullback. Some of those signs were realized yesterday. The DJUSHB produced a fairly convincing approximation of a tweezers top reversal signal. Of course, a "reversal" here can mean just a pullback or the reversal itself can be reversed. In a strongly trending market, as the DJUSHB has been, the only reversal can be the candle required to complete the signal. The RUT did turn down, but didn't close below the midpoint of Thursday's tall white candle. So, there's a sort-of reversal signal, but the evening-star formation wasn't quite completed. The Wilshire looked as if it was completing a tweezers-top formation, but it bounced up again, creating a doji and failing to confirm any kind of reversal signal. The RLX gapped down, but created another doji. The BIX produced a doji that spanned the distance from the 200-sma up to the 6/01 high. The Nasdaq closed well off its LOD, but below Friday's close. Mixed evidence. The OEX itself produced a doji after briefly violating 570.

Unfortunately, the OEX is still within the broadening formation on its daily chart, with Friday's high testing the rising trendline at the top of that formation. The OEX is still within a rising regression channel on intraday charts, having turned down from a test of the top of that channel during the last 15 minutes of trading yesterday.

Frankly, I'm at a loss after hoping that Monday's close, after opex settlement volatility was out of the way, would have provided more clarity. I'm seeing indices seeing strong gains but facing strong resistance, balanced against evidence that some are beginning to show signs of reversals. I don't trust the reversals and I don't trust the gains. I do know that by any standards, we've seen a long run without much of a pullback and it should be time for one, at least rolling the OEX down through its rising regression channel to test mid-line support near 570.60 if not bottom support near 568. There are some signs that yesterday's test of the upper resistance on that rising regression channel was weaker than last week's, so that a rolldown through to the midpoint of the channel is what I would guess would be the most likely thing to happen. After that? That depends on how the OEX travels down through the channel--how fast, taking what path, etc. I may be proven very wrong in my best-guess scenario early in the morning if markets zoom higher. I acknowledge that as a possibility, as there are some mixed-up signs in the markets. If that happens, there's Keltner resistance in the 573.50-574 zone, and rising regression channel resistance in that zone, too. That's also the location of a neckline for a potential inverse H&S, or one version of it. I'm having trouble with my charting service, but also look for resistance at the top of the broadening formation that began about May 23. Draw an ascending line off the candle shadows from that time and watch if that level is tested.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 8:33:38 AM

Ten year treasuries have opened lower, TNX currently +.6 bps at 4.109%. Upside resistance is at 4.12% and then the brick wall at 4.14%-4.16%.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/21/2005 7:49:25 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1219, NQ 1545.5, YM 10623 and QQQQ -.07 at 37.80. August gold is down 3.4 to 436.5, silver -.015 to 7.274, ten year notes -1/16 to 112 21/64. I'm not receiving Nymex quotes this AM, and so am showing only yesterday's close for July crude at 59.45.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

Linda Piazza : 6/21/2005 7:12:47 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei traded in a tight range, managing a modestly positive close. Other Asian markets were mixed, but with more declining than gaining. European markets gained this morning as crude eased, but the positive response of our futures is modest. As of 6:46 EST, gold was down $3.80, and crude, down $0.36 to $59.52. More details about Asian and European markets follow in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei traded in a tight range Tuesday, managing a close that was 5.39 points or 0.05% higher than Monday's, at 11,488.74. A Bloomberg article reportedly said last night or yesterday that Moody's will not lower Japan's ratings despite some previous concern that it might do so as debt hits higher levels against GDP. In earliest trading, investors in Japanese stocks rotated into drug manufacturers and utility stocks. They took profits on steel manufacturers after Tokyo Steel Manufacturing cut some costs yesterday as increased Chinese production of steel pushed down prices.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but more declined than rose. Taiwan reportedly sent out a warship to protect its fishing boats after some objected that Japanese patrol boats were harassing them in disputed fishing grounds. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.29%, and South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.47%. Singapore's Straits Times eased 0.03%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.24%. China's production for all steel products rose 36% in May, industry group International Iron & Steel Institute revealed. The Shanghai Composite dropped 1.27%.

With crude easing off yesterday's values, European markets turn in positive performances this morning. In France, INSEE said that May's consumer spending declined 0.9% over the previous month's revised-slightly-higher number, with spending on durables falling a heftier 2.2%. These numbers were worse than expected. The financial minister trimmed the growth forecast for 2005 to 2.0%, down from the previous 2-2.5%, with this change anticipated. Also, when cutting interest rates more than expected, Sweden's central bank noted that GDP growth had declined more than the bank had expected both within Sweden and in the eurozone. This central bank's decision will likely put pressure on the ECB to also cut rates, and there were some noises, rumors only, late yesterday in forex markets that the ECB might do so. Germany is to release its influential June ZEW index this morning, but I haven't been able to find a reading for it yet. Most expect a recovery in this sentiment index, but think that it will only be a recovery from May's level and not see an improvement over April's.

As had happened in Asia, there was some rotation into defensive issues such as pharmaceuticals and out of steel producers. As a result of the news from China, U.S. producer Nucor yesterday cut its Q2 earnings forecast, adding to pessimism in the sector. Also, CSFB downgraded Germany's ThyssenKrupp. Some insurers gained, with AXA noting that its restatement of 2004's earnings using new IFRS accounting was in line with expectations. Media groups were in the spotlight after Chrysalis Group reported dropping revenue for the quarter ending May 31 and noted the continuing volatility in an advertising market still affected by consumer spending. The company expected little visibility for the next few months. Also, GCap in the U.K. reported falling revenue in May and also mentioned limited visibility for the next few months. Many media-related issues were falling in early trading, but Scottish Radio Holdings PLC was gaining due to Emap PLC's 10.88 pounds-per-share cash offer for the company, up from a previous 10.88 offer. Another deal possibility in a different sector involved UBS AG. The company confirmed advanced talks to take a $500 million to $1 billion stake in Bank of China before the company is listed in Hong Kong, with that event planned for some time next year.

As of 6:57 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 10.20 points or 0.20%, at 5,082.20. The CAC 40 was higher by 21.11 points or 0.50%, at 4,214.51. The DAX had gained 14.99 points or 0.33%, to trade at 4,601.85.

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