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Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 2:34:55 AM

Aha! I think I've figure out why the QQQQ has such a difficult time with $37.93! Check this out, but it is in the futures (nq05u) Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 2:00:59 AM

As you look ahead into next week, don't forget we've got quarterly rebalancing! Here's the Beetle's Balanced Benchmark, quarter-do-date Link . There's only ONE, maybe two ways I know of to get BOTH fixed income and equity asset classes positive. One is for investors to pull money out of savings, the other, in combination with the first, is to get foreign investors to convert their currency into U.S. dollars then buy an asset class. (Thus the dollar strength = bad for equities is disproved again).

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 1:39:45 AM

Much of my 01:26:58 and 01:29:56 postings are for a couple of traders that wondered "how did you figure out the SPX would settle 1,209 on Thursday? Remember, we didn't just look at an option chain "one day." We used "Max Pain" levels to realize where we were, in relation to a mathematicaly derived "where we've been" and "where we are," as well as the pivot levels (what do computers/market makers need to do to make as many options go "poof" into expiration). And most important perhaps, was my ERROR when in May I said "matrix history would predict the majors should NOT trade much above their MONTHLY R1s. Boy was that wrong as bullish enthusiasm turned things around in a hurry! A mistake corrected, is a future profit detected!

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 1:26:58 AM

Closing QQQQ option chain sorted by current open interest at this Link and now that were getting into some option rollout, a QQQQ option chain (sorted by volume, but still has Open Int. column) at this Link .... Now... let's pretend YOU'RE the Market Maker. Look at where the QQQQ was trading ($37.85) and where it is trading ($37.81). Now the VXN.X. Only difference is the VXN.X right? Now.... look at the July $37 Put (QQQ-SK). It showed 224,370 OI on the 06/17 02:40 screen capture. OI has increased by 108,385. So... back to YOU'RE the Market Maker and as contracts are opened up, most likely by put BUYERS, you've got an obligation to BUY the QQQQ at $37, less the $0.20 premium, or $37 - $0.20 = $36.80. To offset this type of RISK, what are you doing? You're probably SHORTING the QQQQ right? Hey... all you want is the PREMIUM. $0.27 average on 06/17, and $0.20 today (06/22). Now tackle the July $38 Call (QQQ-GL) with current OI of 207,071 , which is up 27,682 from the 06/17 02:40 PM benchmark. Do you see where we're going here? Look at the VXN.X benchmarks again. Why is the VXN.X falling, if based on just these two contracts and open interest? Is it because retail BULLS are overly optimistic (retail bulls buying calls), or is it because institutional BULLS are cautiously optimistic (selling puts)? It takes some time, and you don't necessarily have to do this EVERY DAY, but DIA/DJX , SPY/SPX, OEX, QQQQ/NDX traders can take some snapshots like I'm doing here with the QQQQ and "play this game." What do YOU think the VXN.X will do if COMPX breaks above 2,100, or QQQQ $37.20? If the VXN.X "plunges" will you scream "bulls are overly optimistic!" Or will you think like an options market maker, grin at those $37 put BUYERS and buy back your QQQQ short in lumps of 100,000 share blocks? If VXN.X rises quickly, where's risk assessed to? On 06/17 we might think $37 - $0.27 = $36.73 if based on July $37 put. Today, its $37 - $0.20 = $36.80. It has always interested me in how some immediately assume that a falling VIX/VXN is because CALL BUYERS are overly optimistic. Based on the July $38 Call and July $37 put (just out the money), it doesn't appear to me that CALL buyers are creating the "overly optimistic" look.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 1:29:56 AM

Closing QQQQ option chain, sorted by most active at this Link and the 01:55 Option Chain at this Link ... very slight decline in the VXN.X, so thinking slightly more call buying/put selling from 01:55 benchmark than call selling/put buying. Slight shuffle in most actives where the July $38 Calls moved up from #3 to #1 in the last hour. Note: QQQQ trades $37.90 in extended. Very similar "action" today as yesterday regarding QQQQ. "They can hit them, but they won't go down." Not yet at least. What's up with Jan07 Call/Put? Probably some pop in the VXN.X gives a little extra premium. I like to add the average day's premiums to the call side (paying $4.50 +$38 = $42.50) With VXN.X little moved from 01:55 PM EDT, we don't know for certain if that's a call buyer, or call seller induced trade. Still, somebody thinks the QQQQ either DOES trade (call buyer) or DOESN't trade (call seller) $42.50 by Jan. 07. Hey, that's way too far out for what we're probably doing here in the MM, but why would this type of trade be found? It has to be today's BOND MARKET action doesn't it? Has a scenario changed? Hmmm.... check out a WEEKLY Interval chart of the Jan07 Calls. Looks a little reverse head/shoulder doesn't it? You don't think anyone in their right mind believes James Cramer, or Tab Gilles that CSCO could ever trade back above that $20 resistance do you? Nah.... and the NASDAQ Comp. probably won't break above 2,100. (grin) For fun, I'll set an upside alert on the Jan 07 $38 Calls at $5.30. I've never noticed if an option's chart has ever fullfilled a reverse head/shoulder bottom pattern.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:22:35 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 6/22/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 9:38:08 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Stopped out on the swing trade long in the underlying QQQQ at $37.65 (+$0.19, or +0.51%). Closed out the swing trade long in the underlying shares of Wells Fargo (WFC) at $61.80 ($+0.65, or +1.06%). Day traded long shares of Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) at $37.03, closed out at $36.90 ($-0.13, or -0.35%). Swing traded long two (2) Exxon/Mobil XOM Oct. $60 Calls (XOM-JL) at the offer of $2.80. Targeting $65 as a mininum on at least one (1) and $74 on the other.

Tab Gilles : 6/22/2005 6:25:08 PM

Just watching Jim Cramer on Mad Money CNBC....here he goes again with the stock symbols on the knuckles. Now, mind you he's going long and strong on Mr. Softie (MSFT) and The Cisco Kid (CSCO)! He's doing his "UM BACK" and load up the truck...LOL.

Those who follow my post here on MM on Friday of last week 6/17 11:55AM. Link

Where I alerted MM reader's to watch for a CSCO $20 breakout.

As for the Nasdaq and tech stocks, go back to 5/4 8:27 AM post. I issued a BUY on the $COMPQ at 1933, currently at 2092. Link current... Link

I use the Profund UOPIX Ultra OTC which delivers 200% the index. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 5:03:41 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 4:51:53 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 4:38:14 PM

August Crude Oil futures (cl05q) settled down $0.95, or -1.61% in Wednesday's trade at $58.09.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 4:35:37 PM

Imperial Oil (AMEX:IMO) $83.48 +2.79% Link ... DJ - Reducing its purchase price for benchmark 40-degree gravity light crude oil at Edmonton by C$13 a cubic meter to C$450 a cubic meter, effective today. In terms of barrels, company is now offering C$71.55 a barrel, down from C$73.62. The new purchase price indicates an export price delivered to Chicago of about $59.22 a barrel after considering transportation and import charges and foreign exchange rates. Export prices are confidential, but are believed to be closely related to the posted levels.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 4:11:22 PM

The BIX juuust barely avoided a key reversal day, by a few cents only. It did create a shooting star potential reversal signal.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 4:10:22 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $121.46, DIA $105.89

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 3:54:24 PM

Don't forget Initial Claims at 8:30, and the Greenspan/Snow testimony to the Senate Finance Committee on US/China relations at 10AM.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 3:53:02 PM

We have durable goods tomorrow, so perhaps that will get something moving somewhere.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 3:48:28 PM

Volume breadth is back to mixed, advancing up 1.3:1 on the NYSE, declining volume leading 1.16:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ's weak 30 min cycle downphase is in the process of reversing (again), the 60 min cycle downphase still in progress and still getting no traction at all. 37.62-37.95 is the keltner range for the now-superimposed 30 and 60 min channels, the middle still directionless chop. Updated chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 3:46:31 PM

OEX heading down to test the bottom of its neutral triangle. A 15-minute close under the Keltner line currently at 569.61 is needed to confirm that breakdown. The problem is that we're very near the end of the day and end of day moves are sometimes not reliable.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 3:40:48 PM

The Russell 5000 still coils within its descending regression channel. This is a potential bull flag. Flags supposedly rarely are reversal signals, or so the technical analysis texts say, but we have seen it happen, so we should wait for the break one direction or the other before we make decisions about this influential index. The RUT has daily Keltner support from 637.31-639.30, with the RUT currently at 642.33.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 3:39:51 PM

Still no buy/sell premiums today. I'm surprised. Very surprised. I feel great pressure building in the equity markets.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 3:36:00 PM

Bullish day trade exit alert ... for Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $36.90 -0.13% here. Not looking likely for a bid to the close. 30-min left and despite decline in oil, which may well have been "profit taking," not seeing enough bullishness here. Broken to the upside intra-day trend extends to $36.80 and correlative with 5-min interval chart's rising 200-pd SMA.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 3:32:01 PM

It looked so easy this morning: a narrowing triangle on the OEX, Keltner lines ringing the breakout points to verify the breakout. Unfortunately, there's been no breakout.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 3:31:13 PM

Global Currency ... DJ - Mexico's Peso ends 03:00 PM EDT at 10.7635/$; strongest in 22 months!

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 3:30:25 PM

Yesterday, the heavier volume was on the downside, as it's been for the past several sessions. Today has been similar. The opening gap was sold down again on higher volume than it took to run QQQQ up in the afterhours/premarket, and so my thought continues to be that this is distribution being expertly executed. The trouble is that the put to call ratios are so high and volatility so low, suggesting heavy put distribution. The high put to call ratios are generally associated with bottoms rather than tops- and so on the one hand, the low volatility and volume patterns look entirely bearish to me, while on the other, the high p/c ratios look bullish.

I'll be very glad once this range is behind us.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 3:25:16 PM

QQQQ is getting a small lift here, the short cycle in a new upphase from a higher low with price challenging daily S1 from below: Link . The 30 and 60 min channels have yet to join in to the upside, but a break above 37.95 (the current channel tops) should be enough to do it from here. Overall, volume is quite light today following the morning selloff, with half of today's so-far 69M QQQQ shares traded during that first hour and a half.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 3:25:05 PM

QQQQ $37.86 +0.02% ... looking at daily interval bar chart, that $37.93 level that seems to keep showing up may be "explained" by the 21-day SMA. QQQQ hasn't been able to hold a close above this shorter-term SMA for more than a sessioin in recent weeks, and even then, the 06/13 and 06/16 closes above have been by about a penny. Reducing to the ridiculous, but looking for some type of explanation.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 3:17:45 PM

OEX getting tangled in Keltner resistance, trying to break free, but not yet able to do it.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 3:13:36 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 3:08:40 PM

So far, the OEX hasn't been able to hold its bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 3:06:06 PM

Cyberonics (CYBX) $45.82 +2.29% ... threatens 52-week closing high here.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 3:05:10 PM

Ten year note yields finished lower by 2.57%, at session lows of 3.945%. This morning's downside breakaway gap was never seriously challenged, leaving yield bulls/bond bears from the past 7 sessions stranded. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 3:02:12 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 2:59:40 PM

Volume breadth is now positive on both exchanges, 1.37:1 on the NYSE and 1.02:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ are trading both sides of the 72 SMA but the SOX remains the stronger today. The short cycle downphases are stalling here at higher price highs, and so far the 30 and 60 min cycle downphases are proving very weak and corrective this afternoon. Updated QQQQ chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 2:56:59 PM

Bullish day trade entry point alert ... for Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $37.03

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 2:56:50 PM

August crude oil finished lower by .95 at 58.10, session low 57.85, high 59.55. 2-day 50-tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 2:55:06 PM

Some indices bouncing, but the RUT isn't among them yet.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 2:53:05 PM

BIX coming down to test the rising trendline off Monday morning's low. Bulls do not want to see the BIX turn negative today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 2:51:11 PM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $59.69 +0.30% Link here.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 2:51:25 PM

Like many other indices, the Nasdaq has been bouncing from tests of its 15-minute 100/130-ema's. Those are at 2087.86 and 2086.19, respectively. A failure to bounce from them as it perhaps drops to test them now would be a short-term change in trend, at least. As I type, the Nasdaq is at 2089.30.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 2:48:40 PM

Bullish swing trade call option alert ... taking two (2) of the Exxon/Mobil XOM Oct. $60 Calls (XOM-JL) at the offer of $2.80.

Tab Gilles : 6/22/2005 2:46:17 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link Trailing stop is on daily close below 10-ema.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 2:43:46 PM

Google (GOOG) $290.29 +0.85% ... "Google-arians" still holding tough at yesterday's highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 2:40:58 PM

QQQQ has drifted back above the 72 SMA, still on light volume, the short ccyle downphase still in progress but looking weak. The 30 and 60 min cycles are now in downphases, but it's all noise above 37.60. The daily cycle upphase, now a week old, has gone net nowhere, good news for bears, but there are still potentially weeks left in that cycle if bears can't do more damage on the declines. A close below 37.60 should be enough to stall it.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 2:40:55 PM

September Fed Fund futures (ff05u) 96.47 +0.01% ... still predict better than 100% chance of two more Fed hikes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 2:35:50 PM

Charles Schwab (SCH) $11.86 +2.59% ... also hot on speculation this broker may be next acquisition target. BIG spike in volume (583,900) last 5-minutes.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 2:34:01 PM

The OEX still hasn't broken out one direction or the other. Now even the normally fast-moving RUT coils within its descending regression channel. The TRAN sits on its 200-sma. The BIX is still positive, but well off its HOD. Bulls do not want to see it drop below its open.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 2:32:45 PM

Ameritrade (AMTD) $17.16 +15.72% ... released for trade.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 2:32:22 PM

Broker Dealer (XBD.X) 154.44 +2.67% ... surging in last 5-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 2:31:22 PM

Bullish day trade long setup alert ... for shares of Yahoo! (YHOO) $37.00 +0.13%. Look long on trade at $37.03, stop $36.83, target $37.35.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 2:24:31 PM

Caught on the telephone.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 2:23:20 PM

Volume breadth mixed, advancing volume leading 1.09:1 on the NYSE, declining volume leading 1.17:1 on the Nasdaq. The total put to call ratio remains high at 1.14, with DTN reporting a realtime reading of 1.09, with volatility above yesterday's lows but still in the vicinity of multiyear lows.

Tab Gilles : 6/22/2005 2:20:22 PM

Pimco's Bill gross on interest rates. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 2:21:02 PM

Lehman 20-year iShares (TLT) 95.80 +0.99% ... session high and currently trade above their 06/03/05 nonfarm payroll close ($95.25). Volume light at just 5.5 million. Fed meets next week in a 2-day meeting (06/28-06/29).

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 2:16:39 PM

Treasuries extend gains ... ... 5-year ($FVX.X) down 10.5 bp at 3.735%, 10-year ($TNX.X) down 8.6 bp at 3.963%, 30-year ($TYX.X) down 7.5 bp at 4.258%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 2:14:27 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 2:12:33 PM

Despite the break below QQQQ's and the SOX's 72 SMAs, the SOX remains above rising support from yesterday: Link . QQQQ remains at a higher low as well. Bears need to see the SOX below 432 with a burst of volume to suggest anything more serious than an extension of this endless range.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 2:04:20 PM

The OEX now tests the bottom version of the neutral triangle's trendline. Need to see confirmation of a breakdown by a 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 569.66, setting a downside target of 566.14.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 2:03:20 PM

RUT coming down again to test Keltner support and the bottom of its descending regression channel, without quite approaching the top of the channel this time. The bottom of the QCharts-drawn version is at 638.85, with a violation of that needing a confirmation by a 15-minute close beneath a Keltner line currently at 639.63.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 2:02:38 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 2:01:32 PM

QQQQ breaking below 72 SMA support: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 1:59:54 PM

August crude oil is off its 57.85 low, currently down .80 at 57.25. 2-day 50-tick chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 1:59:33 PM

Ameritrade (AMTD) $14.99 +1.14% ... halted. Company confirming it will buy TD Waterhouse.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 1:58:50 PM

QQQQ Option Chain (update) ... most actives at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 1:55:24 PM

Ten year notes (ZNU5) just printed a session high at 113 9/16, TNX down a whopping 8.1 bps at 3.968%. On the daily chart, the downside break has extended, next support at 3.95%: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 1:53:32 PM

Back to find QQQQ pulling back to lower support within its rising flag/pitchfork Link , the short cycle indicators stalling and ticking lower as I type. Volume remains very light here and overall at 57.3M QQQQ shares so far. Advancing volume is down to a 1.04:1 lead on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 1:52:49 PM

The OEX still coils. We should all show up for the first 30 minutes of trading and the last hour or so, and otherwise go somewhere and enjoy the rest of the summer days. I'm here, though, glued to the screen, although I'm wary of saying something that might persuade someone else to enter a trade one direction or the other, when there's really no evidence which direction such a breakout would be.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 1:45:35 PM

RUT still in its descending regression channel. BIX drifting below 370, but just barely.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 1:36:22 PM

The BIX may be forming a neutral triangle at the top of its climb. It's early yet in the formation, so difficult to be sure, but that's what it appears to be.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 1:35:15 PM

RUT still inside its descending regression channel.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 1:34:24 PM

NBYOTOED. That's no breakout yet on the OEX, either direction. I'm having to type that so often today that I decided to use an acronym.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 1:21:57 PM

QQQQ $37.89 +0.10% ... mid-session "bounce" comes right near this "$37.93" level. I can't figure this out and for bullishness, I'm going to have to think a COMPX CLOSE above 1,200 would signal an upside break of this funky range we've been stuck in.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 1:20:35 PM

OEX still inside its triangle, perhaps gearing up for another upside test as we approach the typical stop-running time of day. Remember that not all stop-running moves are reversed. The goal (of those with enough money to run the stops) is to see what holds and what doesn't.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 1:19:08 PM

The SOX just tested the 15-minute Keltner resistance currently at 435.01, pulling back after the test. Thirty-minute resistance is probably more important and that's currently at 435.49. The SOX tested that twice this morning, but so far hasn't been able to do more than barely pierce that resistance. That resistance has been holding lately, so unless there's to be an upside Keltner breakout, this should be considered possible strong resistance for the SOX.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 1:11:46 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 1:07:04 PM

RUT moving up strongly through its descending regression channel, popping higher after being squeezed between Keltner support and resistance. Top of the channel at about 643.65, but Keltner resistance just above that at 644.12 and then 645.77. No breakout yet anyway, just a climb through the channel.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 1:02:20 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 1:00:10 PM

The TRAN is doing better, climbing up within the mostly 3556.50-3584.00 (on 15-minute closes) rectangular trading pattern from this week. It's at 3573.81 as I type, but it's still just within a consolidation zone.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 12:55:54 PM

SPY 121.39 -0.06% ... QQQQ $37.82 -0.07% ... DIA 106.00 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 12:55:10 PM

BIX.X 370.02 +0.38% ... back to test WEEKLY R1 from underneath.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 12:51:10 PM

30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) down 5.5 bp at 4.278% (data feeds look to be accurate now).

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 12:50:07 PM

I'm torn 50/50 on any type of bullish/bearish trade entries at this point.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 12:45:49 PM

RUT still being squeezed. The lunchtime lull and the often-seen stop-running push during that time could pop it up or down, but so far, 15-minute candles are just being flattened between resistance and support.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 12:41:17 PM

OEX about to test the breakdown level again, but any breakdown needs to be confirmed by a 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 569.55.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 12:40:04 PM

RUT being squeezed between Keltner support and resistance, and should pop one direction or the other.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 12:38:47 PM

I need to step away for one hour.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 12:37:22 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Update on activity ... Close out Wells Fargo (WFC) at $61.80. Stopped on the QQQQ swing trade long at $37.65.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 12:34:55 PM

RUT lingering near the bottom of its descending regression channel off the 6/17 high and also near mid-channel S/R on the 15-minute Keltner chart. No breakout or breakdown there, either.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 12:31:31 PM

Just noticing that the OEX has been balancing on the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, currently at 571.12 and 570.77, mostly staying at or above those averages on 15-minute closes. With respect to those averages, however, the OEX's pattern looks like a bearish right triangle with respect to those averages, although if considering traditional technical analysis, that still looks like a neutral triangle. I've noticed sometimes, though, that when prices are bouncing from a key moving average, but each bounce travels a smaller proportionate distance from those averages, that the technical outlook is similar to that of a bearish right triangle even if the averages are still rising. This is just anecdotal evidence, though, and shouldn't be considered definitive proof that the OEX will break to the downside. Even with a traditional bearish right triangle, rejections of the formation sometimes occur. It does say those averages should be watched as one clue.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 12:27:21 PM

Volume breadth is back to the same bifurcation we've been seeing in recent weeks, advancing volume leading 1.12:1 on the NYSE and lagging 1.19:1 on the Nasdaq. The TRIN is at the high end of neutral at .96, TRINQ entering bearish territory at 1.21.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 12:25:25 PM

QQQQ has drifted back up into the rising channel / flag, the short cycle indicators on a weak buy signal here with price still below 72 SMA resistance at 37.83. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 12:22:27 PM

No breakout yet on the OEX, either direction. The OEX is kind of clinging to the highest of the rising trendlines that could have defined one version of bottom support for the OEX's neutral triangle. A lower trendline now is at about 570.44. I don't think a downside breakdown would be confirmed until a 15-minute close beneath a Keltner line currently at 569.51. Until then, there's not much evidence to pin a play on.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 12:20:39 PM

Airline Index (XAL.X) 50.36 -0.29% ... has reversed bulk of post-EIA losses.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 12:19:47 PM

August Crude Oil futures (cl05q) $58.10 -1.59% (30-min delayed) ... traders cite "profit taking" for sharp reversal. Continuous Oil ($WTIC) and conventional $0.25 box chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 12:16:00 PM

Lehman 20-year iShares (TLT) $95.47 +0.64% ... certain my QCharts' 30-year yield ($TYX.X) is incorrect.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 12:15:15 PM

Lehman 7-10 year iShares (IEF) $86.63 +0.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 12:14:43 PM

Lehman 1-3 year iShares (SHY) $81.12 +0.09% ...

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 12:14:26 PM

MWD isn't hurting the XBD, the broker/dealer index, much today. The XBD rose to test the previous June high reached 6/17, touching that previous high exactly before pulling back. On a Keltner basis, the picture is uncertain as the XBD has shown some signs of Keltner-style bearish divergence on the 15-minute chart, but no significant downturn despite that bearish divergence. The 15-minute channels have settled into an equilibrium position with resistance and support looking about equally weighted. On a daily basis, though, the XBD has been testing daily Keltner resitance at 152.34 and with the XBD currently at 151.11. The rise off the May small pullback looks a little rising bearish wedge-ish, but we know how well those have worked lately, don't we? Not at all. I looked at the possibility of a bear call credit spread this morning, but there's absolutely no premium to be had as high as I'd want to place the sold call, scared as I am (while not yet convinced) that we're going to see upside breakouts everywhere.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 12:13:30 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 12:05:07 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 12:05:01 PM

Seeing many indices sitting right on mid-channel Keltner support on their 15-minute channels: SPX, OEX, Nasdaq, etc. One of those make-or-break moments.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 12:04:32 PM

QQQQ is printing below the bear flag support line, but the volume to justify a downside breakout isn't there: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 11:59:15 AM

Daily MACD (12,26,9) had been trying to flatten and turn up on some indices, but a strong downdraft today will likely turn them back lower again. The bearish cross, if it occurs, would be from above signal, so wouldn't be a necessarily strong signal and this is all just idle speculation this early in the day anyway.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 11:53:09 AM

Washington ... DJ - House Subcommittee clears pension reform bill.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 11:49:31 AM

10 Most Actives ... QQQQ $37.75 -0.26%, MSFT $25.09 -0.23%, AMTD $14.91 +0.60%, CSCO $19.75 -0.10%, EYET $14.12 +8.77%, SPY $121.28 -0.14%, INTC $27.18 (unch), SUNW $3.83 -0.51%, GNLB $0.62 +37.77%, LU $3.07 +0.32%

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 11:47:53 AM

QQQQ intraday update at this Link with price holding a sideways/flaggy ascent. The short cycle indicators are only starting to be persuaded, but that will change if bulls can break 37.85, the current 72 SMA and daily S1.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 11:47:53 AM

TRAN still testing Keltner resistance, just above the 200-sma.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 11:44:58 AM

The RLX just isn't moving today.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 11:42:18 AM

I'm glad I have Keltner channels to watch, too, to augment other forms of technical analysis. This morning saw a brief (well, two brief) violation of the upside trendline of the OEX's neutral triangle and then a brief downside violation, but neither was confirmed by Keltner channel breakouts, so I wasn't seduced into believing that an upside or downside breakout had yet occurred. Sometimes Keltner channels are as ambiguous as any other form of technical analysis when settled into equilibrium positions as they are now, but sometimes even then they provide useful information. It's been useful to know today that there's really been no breakout either direction.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 11:41:08 AM

Today's action is looking very bullish for bonds, with TNX holding a relatively tight range well below upper gap resistance of 4.05%: Link . Failing a strong reaction to the upside for TNX today or tomorrow morning, the daily cycle downphase should confirm easily from current levels.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 11:38:56 AM

Still no confirmed breakdown on the OEX. Bears want to see it continue to find resistance at a Keltner line currently at 571.58, while bulls want to see it push above that resistance on 15-minute closes.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 11:34:37 AM

Session low for August crude oil at 58.45 here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 11:36:46 AM

PETsMart (PETM) $29.46 -2.54% Link ... notably week with today's trade at $30.00 a 3-box reversal. Sets up the potential for a triple-top buy signal at $34.00, but this bull really wanted to see it tick $33.00, then get an intra-day bounce underway from that level. Testing a rising 50-day SMA ($29.46) and correlative WEEKLY S2 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 11:32:51 AM

The BIX erased more than 61.8% of the day's range and then bounced up to retest the midpoint of the day's range. So far, it's finding resistance there. We've talked about key reversal days at other times recently, and here's another case where market bulls do not want to see the BIX turn negative after piercing new recent highs, zooming in early trading.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 11:30:21 AM

BIX.X 369.74 +0.30% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 11:30:02 AM

Wells Fargo (WFC) $61.93 +0.71% ... back to challenge morning highs. A short-term downward trend from 06/10 relative high and DAILY R2 had me more eager to book some profits.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 11:28:55 AM

30 min channel support is down to 37.60, in the range of Monday's low. Bears need to break that level to suggest that this is more than just a quick run through the range in which we've been stuck. Volume breadth is ticking positive on the NYSE, still negative on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 11:27:02 AM

TRAN bouncing up to test that Keltner resistance, up to 3567.60 and then at 3575.67, but strongest perhaps at 3587.97.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 11:25:02 AM

I must admit that current NH/NL reading comparison to yesterday is stronger than I would have expected.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 11:21:07 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $25.09 -0.23% ... session high has been $25.26.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 11:20:30 AM

Qualcomm (QCOM) $34.64 -1.36% ... session high has been $35.26.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 11:20:22 AM

No breakdown confirmed in the OEX.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 11:20:07 AM

Session high for ten year notes at 113 5/16, TNX down 5.9 bps at 3.99%.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 11:19:56 AM

As Jeff mentioned earlier, the TRAN has now eased below the 200-sma. If it sustains values below this MA, it may be vulnerable down to the bottom of its rising regression channel on its daily chart, with the bottom of that channel near the 50-dma at 3527.50 and just above the 200-ema at 3499.74. Is it likely to sustain values below that 200-sma, though? The 15-minute Keltner chart shows the TRAN facing considerable Keltner resistance, but with potential support at 3547.63, with the TRAN at 3559.64 as I type. It needs to produce a 15-minute close beneath that 3547.60-ish level to set up a downside target at the bottom of that rising regression channel.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 11:19:19 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 11:18:40 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 11:14:03 AM

No confirmation of a downside break on the OEX, either.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 11:13:04 AM

QQQQ $37.69 -0.42% ... session low so far $37.63.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 11:12:36 AM

Airline Index (XAL.X) 49.96 -1.08% ... session lows (most oil sensitive group)

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 11:12:02 AM

Despite the lower low for QQQQ, the SOX is still within yesterday's range, so far holding 431 support. Bears need a break of S1 at 429, just below 60 min channel support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 11:11:21 AM

No buy/sell program premiums to this point in the session.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 11:09:51 AM

RUT just above the bottom of the QCharts-drawn descending regression channel in which it's moved off the 6/17 high. If this is a bull flag, then bulls need to bounce it. A breakdown here, confirmed by a 15-minute close below a Keltner line currently at 639.67, would set a downside target of 634.79.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 11:08:38 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,554.80 -0.38% ... slip back below rising 200-day SMA. Testing conventional 38.2% retracement here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 11:07:25 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert for the QQQQ $37.65 -0.50% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 11:06:46 AM

Big volume coming into QQQQ now, gapping below the 30 and 60 min channel supports on the 3 min chart. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 11:07:16 AM

SOX broke below 30-minute Keltner first support but hasn't confirmed that by a 30-minute close, of course, as this 30-minute period has just begun. If it stays below that support, it looks vulnerable to 429-430, but it's about to test a rising trendine off the 6/20 low and that may provide support.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 11:06:36 AM

GMX Resources Warrants (GMXRW) $2.60 ... exiting remaining bullish position here. (see 06/21/05 MM 09:38:42).

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 11:04:53 AM

Ten year note yields are down 5.5 bps at 3.994%, retesting the morning lows here. August crude is up .10 at 59.15.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 11:02:54 AM

OEX breaking below/testing one version of the neutral triangle's lower trendline, but there's another at just over 570 and Keltner 15-minute support at 569.60. A confirmation of the breakdown would occur on a 15-minute close below that Keltner line, but I said earlier not to count on targets being met, and I'm not sure we still should, if that breakdown is confirmed. The rising regression channel is now at about 568.65, but the downside target set by such a confirmation would be at 565.85, below the bottom of the rising regression channel. No confirmation yet, though.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 11:15:10 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link ... believe incorrect reading for 30-year yield ($TYX.X). Most likely 42.81, or 4.281%.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 10:58:38 AM

I mentioned earlier that the SOX rarely (at least lately) breaks out of the 30-minute Keltner channel that it was testing this morning. It hasn't broken out yet, either. It turned down from that test of the Keltner line currently at 435.04 and didn't come close to producing a 30-minute close above it. It's descending to test 30-minute support at 431.95 as this 30-minute draws to a close. Bulls want that support to hold. Bears don't.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 10:57:42 AM

Declining volume now leads 1.43:1 on the Nasdaq, advancing volume leading 1.15:1 on the NYSE. Updated intraday QQQQ chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 10:54:36 AM

RUT moving down to test the bottom of a descending regression channel off the 6/17 high, with the QCharts-drawn version fo that descending channel at about 639.25 currently and with the RUT at 641.51 as I type. There's 15-minute Keltner support that looks fairly significant just above that regression channel support, with the Keltner support (on 15-minute closes) extending down to 639.88. Significant potential support then below the RUT, which means that a confirmed breakdown would be significant, too, especially since this had served as a possible bull flag. That breakdown hasn't happened yet, though.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:54:33 AM

QQQQ $37.78 -0.18% ... session low, now testing WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:53:51 AM

BIX.X 369.43 +0.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:53:20 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 5.7 bp at 3.992%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:52:24 AM

Bullish swing trade exit alert ... for Wells Fargo (WFC) $61.80 +0.50%. Let's book some bullish gains.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 10:50:01 AM

After two tries to pierce the top of the OEX's neutral triangle, prices head down to test the bottom. Needs a confirming 15-minute close beneath a Keltner line currently at 569.72 to confirm a downside break out of that triangle. Downside target of 565.92 if confirmed. Don't get married to these targets, those, as I warned earlier.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 10:49:33 AM

Back to find August crude back up to 59.40 and QQQQ at a low of 37.84. Current 30 and 60 min channel support line up at 37.70-.73.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:49:15 AM

VXN.X 14.28 +6.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:48:47 AM

QQQQ $37.85 +0.02% ... session low and testing DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:46:49 AM

S&P Dep. Receipts (SPY) 121.52 +0.04% ... had just traded unchanged. BIX.X 370.22 +0.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:45:34 AM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 196.10 -1.43% ... sector loser and session lows here. Yesterday's comeback stopped right at the psychologically round 200.00 level. WEEKLY S1 (193.72) looks to be key near-term support.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 10:43:59 AM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 10:43:54 AM

The TRAN sits just above its 200-sma, off its HOD and barely positive on the day.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:43:43 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 4.044% ... down 4.5 bp after trading WEEKLY S2 of 3.999%. Steady at this point.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 10:42:31 AM

Another OEX attempt to pierce the top of the neutral triangle, not yet successful. The OEX is back inside the triangle. Hasn't drifted far, though, and is holding to Keltner 15-minute support at 572.23, so may be continuing to challenge that upside breakout level.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 10:41:06 AM

NDX volatility (QQV) is back to flat at 12.89, with the total put to call ratio printing 1.27. The TRIN and TRINQ remain neutral-bullish at .85 and .71, with advancing volume leading 1.93:1 on the NYSE and 2.03:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 10:40:20 AM

SOX testing 30-minute Keltner resistance, with this 30-minute channel having a bit more relevance on the SOX than the 15-minute version. The applicable Keltner line is at 435, and the SOX needs a 30-minute close above this to confirm a breakout. The SOX doesn't often break out of this channel, which means that a breakout would be significant, but also that it's likely a time in which SOX bulls need to be protective of their profits.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 10:38:38 AM

QQQQ update, holding above the daily pivot and 72 SMA, but below the premarket range at 38.03. The short cycles remain trendless and flat as the 30 min channel begins to tick up. Channel resistance is currently 38.10-.13, support lined up at 37.72. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:36:21 AM

Wells Fargo (WFC) $61.92 +0.69% ... pinned under DAILY R2 ($61.94). WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $60.31, $60.98, Piv= 61.51, $62.17, $62.70.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 10:36:08 AM

August crude is down .175 at 58.875 now, losing 59 support. Current low is 58.725.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 10:35:25 AM

OEX again testing the top of its neutral triangle. Confirmation of an upside break on a 15-minute close above a Keltner line currently at 573.82, but remember the top of the rising regression channel at 574, too. Lots of potential stopping points here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:34:33 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 370.85 +0.60% ... challenge morning high here.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 10:34:02 AM

The RUT still turns down through the falling regression channel off its 6/17 high. This could be a bull flag, of course, but there's been no sustained upside breakout, if so.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:34:00 AM

Airline Index (XAL.X) 50.20 -0.61% .... hugging DAILY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 10:33:33 AM

The SOX is up above 434 at 434.40, testing daily R1 on the EIA spike.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:32:29 AM

QQQQ $37.95 +0.26% ....

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 10:32:02 AM

August oil 59.45, a dime below the session high.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 10:31:38 AM

Not much reaction on the OEX as yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 10:35:25 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 10:28:18 AM

QQQQ intraday update at this Link with the short cycle indicators rolling over. A move below 37.90 would confirm a new downphase. Awaiting the EIA report in the next few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 10:26:41 AM

I agree with Marc's earlier admonition that conservative traders should be flat. (Futures side.)

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 10:25:43 AM

OEX being positioned to test the top of the neutral triangle ahead of the inventories release. Keltner confirmation on an upside break on a 15-minute close above a Keltner line currently at 573.79 with the rising regression channel's top at just over 574. Upside target 575.73 if confirmed by that 15-minute close, but as I said this morning, I don't trust either upside or downside targets completely in this climate. Be careful, especially with post-release volatility possible.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 10:20:16 AM

RUT positive, but off the HOD.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:19:03 AM

Correction to 09:47:15 ... PHLX patent application to securitize commodities has been published.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 10:17:35 AM

August crude oil has reopened and is up .10 at 59.15, current high 59.225.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:16:09 AM

Weekly EIA consensus (update) ... Crude Oil -2.0 million, gasoline +50K and distillates +2.0 million.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 10:13:42 AM

The BIX's current 15-minute candle is a red one, but it isn't a long enough candle to complete an evening-star reversal signal, I don't think. It hasn't retraced anywhere near 50% of the first 15-minute candle.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:13:38 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 10:13:32 AM




Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 10:11:23 AM

An upside break that can't hold sometimes means that a formation will then be broken to the downside, at least by the proportion of the upside test. I don't know that we can count on that happening with the OEX's neutral triangle, though, broken to the upside only to see prices move back inside the triangle. Glad we had that confirming Keltner line to watch, because there was never a confirmation of the upside breakout.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 10:09:42 AM

The RLX isn't doing much of anything this morning. It hasn't even attempted a breakout of its neutral triangle, in either direction.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:05:58 AM

VIX.X 11.07 -0.09% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 10.61, 10.87, Piv= 11.27, 11.53, 11.93.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 10:05:56 AM

Ten year notes are edging off their highs but holding the bulk of their gains, TNX currently up to a 4.3 bp loss at 4.006%.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 10:04:56 AM

QQQQ is testing 72 SMA support now, with a spike to 37.88. The short cycle upphase has stalled but has yet to roll over. Updated chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 10:04:37 AM

The BIX was zooming up yesterday, and it's continued that today after showing a minimal downside break of yesterday's rising bearish wedge, and then climbing right back up through it and breaking to the upside. The just completed 15-minute candle was a doji at the top of that strong climb, though, and the BIX turns down now. Bulls don't want to see a strong decline as that present the possibility of an evening-star formation at the top of a climb.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:03:09 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 10:00:31 AM

Arbinet-Thexchange (ARBX) $7.39 -35.82% Link ... sharply lower after the compay, which operates an exchange where telecom companies can trade voice and data traffic, lowered quarterly expectations. ARBX saying it now expects 2005 net income of $3 million to $6 million on fee revenue between $46-$50 million.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 9:59:25 AM

The TRAN pulled back from its HOD, and 15-minute candle bodies are mostly forming between 3585 and 3559.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 9:58:23 AM

A 6.25B overnight repo from the Fed results in a net add of 3B against the 3.25B expiring from yesterday.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 9:53:44 AM

Session low for QQQQ at 37.94, 1 cent above the daily pivot and 4 cents above 72 SMA support below which the intraday bias will go negative. Advancing volume still leads 2.94:1 on the Nasdaq, TRINQ .75. QQV is up .64 to 13.54, however.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 9:53:07 AM

As some have probably already noted, the Nasdaq has dropped back below 2100 after piercing that level. It also pierced Keltner resistance currently at 2100.20 and is now turning down from that resistance. On a convincing 15-minute close above that Keltner line, the Nasdaq would have set an upside target of 2106.78, but there are some hints of Keltner-style bearish divergence as that line was tested.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 9:49:49 AM

Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) 252.50 -0.49% Link ...

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 9:48:17 AM

No breakout for the OEX during the first 15-minute period. It's fallen back to test the top of that neutral channel after piercing it, but it never confirmed with a 15-minute close above a Keltner line currently at 573.74. These markets just are not trustworthy. This may be just a retest of that former resistance, but the action leaves all confused.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 9:47:15 AM

Philadelphia Stock Exchange ... gets patent to securitize commodities indexes.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 9:46:32 AM

QQQQ update at this Link with price holding its premarket range after a test of daily R1 at the 38.10 high just now. Because the 30 and 60 min cycles are so choppy, direction remains up for grabs. The short cycle is in an upphase just above the midpoint of its range, and it will take a break below 72 SMA support at 37.90 to reverse it.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 9:43:19 AM

Genelabs (GNLB) $0.67 +48.88% ... #2 most active after company said it has scheduled a meeting with the FDA to discuss options for the development of its experimental lupus drug, Prestara.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 9:41:29 AM

The OEX pulls back to the top of the neutral triangle, retesting that former resistance to see if it holds as support.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 9:39:25 AM

Strong buying among Treasuries ... 10-year yield ($TNX.X) down 5.7 bp with yield diving back below 4.0% at 3.993%. Lehman 20-year iShares (TLT) $95.51 +0.58% gapping above their still rising 21-day SMA.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 9:38:34 AM

That upside Keltner target, if the breakout is confirmed (see 9:36 post) is near the top of the OEX's broadening formation, so a test of that target will be a test of the top of the OEX's broadening formation. Before that, though, at about 574, the OEX tests the top of its rising regression channel formed as the OEX began moving off the 6/09 lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 9:37:16 AM

Advancing volume leads 4.74:1 on the NYSE and 3.86:1 on the Nasdaq, TRIN and TRINQ neutral at .73 and .69 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 9:36:54 AM

The OEX has pushed the confirming Keltner line (for an upside breakout of the triangle) up to 573.71, and needs a 15-minute close above that to confirm the breakout, I think. Upside target upon confirmation is 575.66, but be careful of assuming that all targets will be met today, especially pre-inventories number.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 9:37:18 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 370.74 +0.57% ... rings up WEEKLY R1. Has not been a good thing for broader market shorts/bears when BIX.X leads in the pivot matrix.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 9:35:39 AM

The TRAN often zooms around pre-inventories release on Wednesday morning, with the direction of the zoom sometimes continued and sometimes reversed afterwards. It's doing the zoom higher version this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2005 9:35:35 AM

Ameritrade (AMTD) $15.38 +3.77% ... #3 most active early on reports the online broker will pay $3 billion for TD Waterhouse, while at the same time, CNBC reports that E-Trade has made a final offer of $17.50 for Ameritrade (AMTD). Officials at both Ameritrade and TD Waterhouse have declined to comment on these merger reports.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 9:33:54 AM

OEX testing the top of its neutral triangle.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 9:32:49 AM

QQQQ has gap support at daily S1, 37.87, which lines up with the current 30 min channel bottom. 72 SMA support is at 37.89 currently.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 9:12:38 AM

Just realized that I hadn't posted this yet. I prepare these OEX-related posts the previous night, after I've decompressed from the day's actions and before I'm befuddled by whatever is being said on CNBC in the morning. That way, I have a clearer focus on what the charts are saying. Then I update it after 8:30 economic releases, if there are any. Today, markets will be positioning themselves ahead of the inventories releases, so be careful about getting married to positions ahead of that. Plus, with neutral triangles on many charts, clarity is hard to find. Here's the post, as prepared last night.

The OEX declined Tuesday, ending the day at the bottom of a neutral triangle at the top of its climb off the 6/09 low. The OEX is still within the rising regression channel it has formed since that climb. We'll look for a break out of that triangle, with boundaries at about 570 and 573, to be confirmed by 15-minute closes below or above Keltner lines currently at 569.75 and 573.45. Futures are higher this morning, so the OEX could head up to test the upper boundary of that triangle. Upside target on an upside break confirmed by that 15-minute close above 573.45 is 575.44, according to Keltner charts. Downside target after confirmation by a 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 569.75 is 565.96, also according to Keltner channels. Until there's a breakout confirmed by those 15-minute closes, we might expect the OEX to rattle around between 570 and 573-574. Oh, and if there is a breakout either direction, there's reason to be skeptical of targets being met. Other than that, should be a fun day.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 9:05:16 AM

QQQQ is holding within yesterday's preopen range but above the post-9:30AM range. The intraday cycles are an absolute mess, with the 30 min cycle trending sideways-higher and the 60 min cycle upphase stalled. The daily cycle is bullish, however, the 10-day stochastic on a fresh buy signal. The only thing bearish in the daily cycle is that so far, it's been going sideways-higher, as weak as the downphase which preceded it. The picture will become more bullish on a break above daily R1 at 38.10, while bears need a break of the 37.70 low yesterday.

Jane Fox : 6/22/2005 8:36:56 AM

Dateline WSJ As if its coming change in leadership weren't enough, the Securities and Exchange Commission is now facing an appellate-court objection to a tough regulation already under fire in Washington and on Wall Street - as well as the prospect of more potential upheaval in the accounting industry.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit yesterday directed the SEC to reconsider rules passed in June 2004 requiring the chairman and 75% of most mutual-fund boards to be independent of fund managers. The ruling, affecting who sits on the funds' boards and how independent they are, is a significant win for the nation's largest business lobby, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which brought the suit, Legal Times notes. The three-judge panel found the SEC violated rule-making procedures by failing to take into account how much the reforms would cost the industry, and it criticized the agency for improperly rejecting an alternative proposal from two of its commissioners. But the court took no position on whether the rules governing independence were proper. Instead, the court said the SEC must produce a cost-benefit analysis to justify the rule, the New York Times reports. And it rejected the Chamber of Commerce's argument that the SEC did not have the authority to impose the rule on the $8 trillion mutual fund industry.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 8:35:43 AM

Session high for 10 year bonds, ZN5U up to 113 1/2, TNX down a whopping 6.5 bps to 3.984%, gapping way below the 4.05% support line. A preliminary daily cycle sell signal is printing on the 10-day stochastic: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 8:02:53 AM

From the Mortgage Bankers Association:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (June 22, 2005) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 17. The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume - was 786.8, a decrease of 11.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 887.0 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11.7 percent compared with last week but was up 29.6 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 9.4 percent to 479.4 from 529.3 the previous week whereas the seasonally-adjusted Refinance Index decreased by 13.2 percent to 2575.0 from 2967.4 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which decreased 11.6 percent to 1184.9 from 1339.8 the previous week, and the Government Index, which decreased 6.6 percent to 122.6 from 131.3 the previous week.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/22/2005 7:39:49 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1223.25, NQ 1556, YM 10672 and QQQQ +.21 at 38.06. Gold is down 1.40 at 439, silver -.061 at 7.231, ten year notes +13/32 at 113 13/64, and crude oil -.175 at 58.875.

We await the EIA Petroleum inventory report at 10:30AM.

Linda Piazza : 6/22/2005 7:18:27 AM

Good morning. Despite worrisome economic news, the Nikkei posted gains last night, closing at its highest level since the middle of April. Most other Asian markets gained, too. After a lackluster start, most European markets climb, too, with those in the U.K. benefiting from the release of the central bank's June minutes, raising hopes for a rate cut. Our futures are higher this morning, too. As of 6:55 EST, gold was down $1.30, and crude, down $0.16 to $58.88. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Wednesday morning, the Japanese Ministry of Finance announced that the country's trade surplus narrowed by 68% from the year-ago level. Declining demand for exports and higher energy costs caused the narrowing, the ministry calculated. The surplus shrank far more than expected, with a forecast of a 499.1 billion yen surplus and an actual surplus of 297 billion yen. Exports increased only 1.4% while imports rose 18.6%. The surplus also narrowed month-over-month, but only 1%, seasonally adjusted. Surplus with the U.S. rose while surplus with the eurozone and Asia fell. After a brief dip into negative territory, the Nikkei turned positive within the first hour of trading, however, and climbed the rest of the day. It closed higher by 58.54 points or 0.51%, at 11,547.28, its highest close since the middle of April.

Most other Asian markets climbed, too. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.26%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 1.23%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.44%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.30%. China's Shanghai Composite was higher by only 0.05%.

Most European markets climb, too, although several sat near the flat-line level during early trading. The release of the Bank of England's minutes from the June meeting showed that a couple of dissenting members voted to cut interest rates. That increased hope for a rate cut sooner than expected, and that benefited equities. Crude has slipped under $59.00 this morning ahead of inventories numbers later today, and that action helped European markets move off the flat-line level. Oil majors slipped in early trading, but auto makers failed to benefit from declining crude costs, instead slipping due to the pessimism engendered by Ford's statement last night. Some retailers also declined, with two, the U.K.'s electronics retailer Dixon's Group PLC and Stockholm-based closing retailer Hennes & Mauritz, reporting. Both slightly beat expectations. Other retailers benefited from the enthusiasm that the release of those minutes created, with many leading gains. Insurers were also in focus. The U.K.'s Royal & Sun Alliance will take a position in investment bank NM Rothschild, and gained in early trading, and French reinsurer Scot SA will issue new shares to enable it to buy the shares it doesn't already own in the holding company of Irish Reinsurance Partners, and rose as a result.

In stock-specific news, Nokia received an upgrade from UBS to a buy rating and a downgrade from Deutsche Bank to a hold rating. Deutsche Bank's downgrade seemed to be based on valuation, as the firm thought the expected good results were already built into the stock price. Bear Stearns upgraded U.K. telecommunications company BT Group, and it gained slightly. The U.S. FDA granted priority review to Novartis AG's drug used to treat chronic iron overload after blood transfusions, but the stock was flat in early trading. The U.K.'s healthcare group Alliance UniChem PLC noted that governmental policies had hurt growth in its wholesale division. The stock fell in early trading. Of interest to U.S. investors might be a settlement Coca-Cola (KO) reached with the European Commission in an antitrust case that will require it to change its competitive practices, doing away with the company's exclusivity arrangements and reserving 20% of the space in its coolers for competitors' products, among other changes.

As of 7:01 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 24.10 points or 0.47%, to 5,106.20. The CAC 40 had climbed 43.77 points or 1.04%, to 4,237.17. The DAX had climbed 20.44 points or 0.44%, to 4,628.55.

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