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Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 11:44:11 PM

Porgram Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.28 and set for selling at $+3.48.

OI Technical Staff : 6/23/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Marc Eckelberry : 6/23/2005 9:29:08 PM

Micron swings to 20c/share loss as sales fall slightly (MU) By John Shinal SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Micron Technology Inc. (MU) said late Thursday it swung to a fiscal third-quarter loss of $127.9 million, or 20 cents a share, compared to a profit of $90.9 million, or 13 cents, a year ago. Sales for the quarter ended June 2 fell slightly to $1.05 billion from $1.12 billion. The results fell well short of Wall Street expectations. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call expected Micron, one of the world's leading makers of computer memory chips, to post a profit of 2 cents a share on sales of $1.19 billion. The company said average sale prices for its memory products fell 30% compared to the fiscal second quarter.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/23/2005 7:32:24 PM

Tariffs have never been other than a weapon to force the Chinese to float their currency. The proposals have always been bi-partisan and at around 23 or 28% which is the exact amount the artificially lowered yuan impacts our trade deficit. In fact, we would NOT be in this position if it wasn't for the manner in which the Bush administration (and Clinton before him) has given "carte blance" to the Chinese with vague weak-kneed threats that have had no effect. No other major trading partner is allowed such behavior. This is not Salvador. And it is not protectionism to forcefully ask the Chinese to adhere to international monetary standards or face the consequences. That it does not please a select group of US companies doing business in China, does not mean it is in the interest of our nation. That it also displeases such a sycophant as Kudlow is fine with me. The fact that the proposed tariffs would be immediately lifted if China floats their currency like everyone else is of course not mentioned by Kudlow. We are calling the bluff of the Chinese and I'm all for it.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 7:00:33 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 6:04:50 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 5:54:09 PM

Currency Benchmark at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 5:44:14 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... Weakness in Transports and strength in oil didn't help bulls early, but stocks were firm. However, I think today's close should be taken as a message of what trade tariffs against China mean not only to U.S. economy, but global economy. I've highlighted "key sectors" in PINK and what I feel each would do if tariffs were imposed.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 5:19:21 PM

Thoughts: Mr. Kudlow made some very valid points today (in my opinion) regarding protectionism being bad for economy, and I think market participants cringed, or should I say "ran for the exits" when Senator Kerry, and others, began their commentary. As I was listening to Senator Kerry, first thing that crossed my mind was "remember how strong the equity markets moved higher when the election results had President Bush winning?" Mind you, it isn't just Democrats that have proposed tariffs on imports from China.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 5:03:32 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Bearish swing trade put four (4) Southwest Air LUV Dec. $15 Put (LUV-XC) at the offer of $1.40. Adjusted stop for the one (1) PETsMART PETM Jan $30 Call (QPT-AF) and will sell it if the stock were to trade below $28.45 (just more than 61.8% of April low-June high) Note: Earlier comment regarding XOM and "membership has no privelege" relates to XOM being the seventh-most heavily weight INDU component, and most heavily weighted OEX component. Oil could have traded $100 today and XOM still may have declined with INDU breadth 28 down, 2 (PFE, MSFT) up.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 4:29:18 PM

QQQQ $37.39 -1.11% ... DAILY Pivot Levels for tomorrow ... $36.78, $37.09, Piv= $37.63, $37.94, $38.48.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 3:59:22 PM

The Wilshire 5000 is still dropping. Friday's high was 12,110.00 and the current value is almost 180 points lower, at 11,931.80. It's approaching Keltner support at 11,929.28, and there's some historical S/R just over and under 11,900.00, so we might expect a bounce sometime tomorrow. Bears will want to see that bounce capped somewhere around 11,970-11,980.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 3:51:42 PM

Bullish call option stop adjustment alert ... I want to adjust our bullish call option stop for the PETsMart PETM Jan. $30 Call (QPT-AF) ... Stop place to sell if stock were to trade below $28.45. PETM $28.97 -2.45% here

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 3:49:33 PM

The SOX obviously will not close the day above the daily Keltner channel that usually confines it. That's at 444.74 and the OEX is now at 435.77. I didn't know how true it was going to be when I mentioned earlier today that SOX bulls were usually living on borrowed time when the SOX moved out of the 30-minute Keltner channel or above that daily Keltner channel.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 3:42:47 PM

As you're making your decision about holding overnight, remember that we have durable goods tomorrow. I think. Smile. I got it wrong yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 3:41:09 PM

The Wilshire 5000 long ago lost 12,000 today. It's at 11,944.80 as I type. Support thins beneath it, and it looks vulnerable to a considerable decline, perhaps to 11,800 or even 11,650.00. Like some other indices, though, it remains within its climbing formation and could be just broadening it into a rising regression channel. I'm a cautious person by nature, although I guess a mountain-biking 55-year-old woman could be granted a little move away from being too cautious, but the recent market action has only accentuated my natural caution. Be careful out there to protect profits.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 3:38:21 PM

If I'm checking the right daily candle, the SPX closed last year at 1211.92. Last week, many touted the daily close above that level. Now the SPX is below it, testing 1200. Bears, though, have your profit-protecting plans in mind. The daily Keltner chart suggests the SPX could dip as low as 1192-1196 before finding Keltner support if it closes beneath 1209.02, but 1200 has to be psychological support, too.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 3:34:53 PM

If the RUT were to close the day below a Keltner line currently at 637.48, it then looks vulnerable to a Keltner line currently at 628.71. The RUT hasn't produced a daily close below that daily Keltner line since 5/13.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 3:33:38 PM

OEX testing the first level of Keltner daily support.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 3:28:24 PM

Hanover Compressor (HC) $11.73 +0.42% ... holds 5-cent gain.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 3:26:12 PM

Unless the last 40 minutes of trading prompt some strong bounces, the BIX is going to more than confirm its evening-star reversal pattern. Unless it drops below about 562.80, however, it will not confirm a breakdown below the lowest trendline off its April low. The BIX's behavior yesterday was a big give-away that something wasn't right. We have to thank Jeff for teaching us to watch the BIX, too.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 3:24:40 PM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,453 -1.27% ... really getting hit. Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $59.28 -0.65% ... a day when "membership has no priveledge."

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 3:23:36 PM

Downside target for the OEX on the 15-minute chart has now slipped down to 565.32. Daily Keltner support ranges from 562.88 to 565.07, and bulls do not want to see a daily close below that zone.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 3:18:58 PM

Keene (3:12 on Futures side) is cautioning against anyone getting too bearish. While many have probably interpreted my comments lately as too bearish as I warned of the signs that I was seeing that said all was not right with the bullish world, I see some concerns for bears, too. I've been proclaiming myself a "chopper," as I see the possibility for markets to chop around as long as various sectors are pulling opposite directions. As markets decline now, we'll probably get a better look at how this pullback looks and perhaps have more clarity. Earlier today, in an email to Jane, I declared myself able to do the Linda Blair thing in The Exorcist, and I imagine many market participants feel that way. I would caution bears, too, to not become overly confident. Don't let profits get away from you.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 3:14:16 PM

The OEX hit 566. Bears had an opportunity to decide how they'll handle a test of this 564-566-ish support zone. On a Keltner basis, bears want to see continued 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 568.01.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 3:13:20 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 3:07:01 PM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,204.14 , DIA $104.55, QQQQ $37.48 ... majors should close at their lows ....

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 3:02:30 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 2:55:06 PM

The RUT consolidates above its 635.43 Keltner short-term downside target. The former descending resistance trendline off the 12/31 high is now at about 633.15. I think we'd have to see how the RUT handled a test of this trendline before we made many decisions about its strength or weakness.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 2:43:23 PM

The SOX's decline retraced 38.2% of the rise off Monday's low, so a bounce was perhaps expected. The shape of the decline had nothing of the bull flag to it and that H&S formation remains a possibility. However, bears would like to see continued 30-minute closes beneath Keltner resistance at 441.06-441.27. Closes above those resistance lines suggest a retest of the day's high.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 2:39:43 PM

I need to leave in a few minutes and will be gone tomorrow. Today's drop, which started from above yesterday's high and then took out 7 sessions' worth of lows on higher volume, qualifies as bearish engulfing/ key reversal day. Needless to say, it's a bearish pattern. So far, the daily cycle upphase that kicked off last week is stalled, and a reversal from here would be a bull trap. If the bears can close it today near or below the current lows, that daily cycle stall will be set up for fresh sell signals on any weakness tomorrow. The picture remains bearish below 37.65-.70. On an intraday basis, the 30 and 60 min cycle downphases, neither of which are oversold, should continue so long as price holds below the 72 SMA, down to 37.89 at the daily pivot.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 2:36:11 PM

I lost a post, but I'd been noting that the OEX was finding resistance where bears wanted it to find that resistance, at least so far, with bears wanting to see continued 15-minute closes below 568.28-568.75. Have profit-protecting plans in place (selling all or partial positions, lowering stops, hedging in some way, etc.) in advance of a test of 564-566, so you know how you'll handle a test of that zone if it is tested.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 2:30:19 PM

Volume declining on the bounce so far: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 2:29:25 PM

QQQQ $37.54 -0.71% ... any intra-day bounce back near $37.80 should get sold into.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 2:28:05 PM

Reviewing the $PREM.X ... that was a "dinger" of a sell program too. Fell to 2.28.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 2:25:52 PM

Ten year notes weakening further but still within today's and yesterday's range, TNX up 2.6 bps to 3.971%. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 2:24:22 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) components at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 2:23:15 PM

The BIX is bouncing ahead of its 200-sma test after testing Monday's early morning low. Bears want to see resistance at 366.21 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 2:21:22 PM

Big bounce up on the OEX. Bears want to see continued 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 569.13 if not below the one at 568.37.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 2:15:39 PM

The OEX's sometimes-influential 30-sma is at 565.91, adding its support to other support in the 566 area. I think it's possible the OEX may actually decline toward 563.50-564, but there's no proof of that just yet, and the whole 564-566 zone is rife with various support levels.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 2:14:08 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 2:12:48 PM

The short cycle indicators are oversold and trying to turn on QQQQ within the 30 and 60 min cycle downphases. The broken rising range support is at 37.65-.68, a break above which will be the first sign of trouble for bears. Intraday chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 2:07:27 PM

Potential H&S on the SOX's 30-minute chart, but it's lacking a right shoulder as yet, so watch the 441-442 right-shoulder level if the SOX should bounce.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 2:06:40 PM

This morning, the SOX was hitting Keltner resistance that usually stops it, at least on daily closes. It's now reversed its 30-minute breakout signal, too, but the volatility over the last few hours could continue. The SOX currently tests 60-minute Keltner support at 438.93, and bulls would like to see that hold. Bears would like to see it fail, or, barring that, would like to see 441.06 Keltner resistance hold on a bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 2:04:21 PM

As soon as COMPX reversed back under 2,100, that was about it.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 2:02:32 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 2:01:04 PM

QQQQ has already exceeded yesterday's 75.5M share volume, 81.9M traded so far. Volume breadth remains only lightly negative though, 1.17:1 for Nasdaq declining volume.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 1:59:11 PM

QQQQ doji-ing up from a low of 37.45, but with a week's worth of overhang at 37.60: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 1:57:07 PM

The RUT finally moved. Smile. It broke out of its rectangular consolidation zone and has nearly met the downside Keltner target of 635.60, coming within a few points.

Remember that while these pullbacks seemed in the cards, I, for one, am not sure how far they're going to take the indices. On the Nasdaq, for example, I've been saying that it's possible the index could rattle around inside the appropriate right-shoulder level (roughly 2025-2100) for a while before we know which direction it's going to take. Guard your profits.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 1:55:34 PM

VIX.X alert 11.65 +5.42% ... jumped back above WEEKLY Pivot within last 10-minutes. Tranpsorts look to be "the key"

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 1:54:38 PM

Ten year treasuries are holding their light losses, TNX still up 2 bps at 3.965%. August crude oil up 1.65 at 59.75, off a high of 60.00.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 1:54:04 PM

OEX trying to steady at 567.00, historical S/R.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 1:53:30 PM

TRAN diving further. If it ends the day anywhere near its current level, it will definitely have broken out of that rising regression channel in which it's traded off the spring lows. There's a continuation-form H&S on the TRAN's chart that's been confirmed today, but because I don't trust continuation-form H&S and inverse H&S, I'd rather just call this a breakdown out of the rising regression channel. The H&S built within that channel anyway, as sometimes happens.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 1:52:05 PM

QQQQ now below the lows of the past 7 sessions. The daily cycle upturn that kicked off last week could prove to be a bull trap if the bears can close at or below these levels. Below 37.50, there's light confluence support at 37.40, followed by 37.25.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 1:51:43 PM

QQQQ Option Chain screen capture at this Link ... 10,000 went off this morning at $0.60 in the July $38 puts.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 1:51:24 PM

BIX headed straight down to its 200-sma at 364.13, with the BIX currently at 365.11. If the BIX were to end the day anywhere near here, it will have confirmed an evening-star formation on its daily chart, but watch for bounce potential from that 200-sma. The 30-sma is just below that, too.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 1:49:40 PM

If you're in a bearish OEX position, have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of 566.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 1:46:57 PM

Nasdaq volume breadth finally goes negative, declining volume leading 1.07:1. On the NYSE, it's 1.4:1 for declining volume.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 1:45:53 PM

VXN.X 14.70 +5.27%

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 1:45:13 PM

The OEX is in the midst of setting a downside target of 566.02 unless it bounces strongly, closing this 15-minute period aback above 568.98.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 1:44:33 PM

Don't you hate it when your charting service shuts down when markets start moving? When I first began trading online (funny, isn't it, that we ever did it any other way), my whole trading platform used to shut down if the markets started moving and forget calling in. You had a 20-minute wait.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 1:43:35 PM

Session high for August crude oil at 59.975, +3.23%

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 1:42:56 PM

5-day 3 min chart of QQQQ for perspective. Range support is being tested, not yet broken: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 1:42:53 PM

RLX dropping fast. BIX dropping and now creating that downside target that will be a test of its 200-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 1:39:38 PM

Session lows across the board, QQQQ approaching yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 1:39:14 PM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,210.61, DIA $105.11, QQQQ $37.70.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 1:39:02 PM

RLX is dropping down to test the Keltner channel support that has been prompting bounces all week. A 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 447.70 will set a downside target of 444.19 for this index and will break it out of this week's rectangular consolidation pattern. By the way, as with any kind of technical analysis, if a target is set, but prices suddenly reverse and move through the former support, then something is wrong and you know the index might not meet that target.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 1:41:06 PM

10 Most Actives ... MSFT $25.51 +1.75%, QQQQ $37.80 -0.02%, CSCO $20.20 +1.96%, AMTD $18.78 +5%, INTC $27.24 +0.44%, LU $3.16 +3.26%, SMH $35.10 +1.03%, SPY $120.75 -0.58%, GE $34.90 -1.74%

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 1:34:56 PM

Siebert Financial (SIEB) $4.04 +30.32% ... finds a bid. Speculation of acquisition target.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 1:33:19 PM

China National Offshore Oil (CEO) $55.11 +3.37% ... many analysts believe company's bid for Unocal (UCL) $65.56 +1.07% is politically motivated. Paul Sankey, and oil/gas analyst at Deutsche Bank said the merger doesn't make sense for CEO, noting that the company's debt-to-equity would rise 280% as a result of the deal.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 1:32:35 PM

GE testing 35 support, testing the April low here.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 1:31:47 PM

QQQQ update at this Link , breaking south out of the channel and testing confluence at 37.81, below which next support is at the 37.75 and the 60 min channel bottom at 37.70.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 1:30:45 PM

The BIX is sliding down descending Keltner support rather than violating it and setting a downside target. That downside target would be 363.88, a test of the 200-sma just above that, if the BIX were to set that with a 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 366.90. The BIX has just edged below that level and perhaps did close the previous 15-minute period just at that breakdown level.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 1:19:44 PM

The SOX is pulling back into the 30-minute Keltner charts, undoing its breakout signal if it continues to drop or hold at current levels. The drop no longer looks like a bull flag, unless it's quickly reversed (remember, this can be one stop-running time of day) and leaves only a candle shadow here. The SOX usually adheres quite well to 30-minute Keltner channels, and especially well to daily one, and it's up against daily resistance (on daily closes, not intraday) at 444.86, currently. The SOX doesn't usually violate this channel for more than day or two before pulling back inside it. That's what happened in early June, for example, with a one-day violation. The SOX is at 443.88 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 1:19:15 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 1:16:27 PM

The OEX has now lost mid-channel Keltner support. I just didn't trust that bump higher this morning even though it went higher than bears might have hoped and the climb assumed a different shape, too. Now, there's got to be some coherence among the various indices or we can't trust a move lower, either. If the OEX's various component stocks are pulling all sorts of directions, we're just going to see chop.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 1:15:40 PM

Ten year notes are weakening again, TNX back up to a 2 bp gain at 3.965%. QQQQ has ticked below 72 SMA support, currently testing the 30 min channel bottom lined up with the daily pivot at 37.89. August crude hit a high of 59.90 there, while GE prints new lows at 35.10. Nasdaq volume breadth remains strong, however, advancing volume still leading 1.98:1.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 1:14:53 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 1:12:07 PM

The RLX is turning down within its rectangular trading range for the week, currently at 449.01 with that range broadly from about 448.30-452.60. The 15-minute Keltner channel that's containing it is now at 447.89 at the bottom and 452.82 at the top. A 15-minute close outside one of those Keltner lines would be needed to confirm a breakout of that channel. The RLX's behavior sometimes influences the OEX. It hasn't broken down yet and may bounce from this support as it's been doing all week, but it's something to be watched.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 1:10:01 PM

COMPX 2,099.49 +0.34% ... not a lot of conviction from bulls at this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 1:08:47 PM

QQQQ held within the descending channel, coming in for a test of 72 SMA support at 37.95: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 1:06:19 PM

The TRAN did not reform into a broader bear flag, as I had thought it might be doing, but instead dropped to a new LOD. It's now below its 200-ema for the first time since 5/17, with the 200-ema providing support on multiple tests from 6/09-6/15.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 1:06:31 PM

Service Corp. Intl (SCI) $7.82 +0.77% ... "bad tick" at $8.78. Big cross of stock took place yesterday at $7.69 level.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 1:01:57 PM

Session high for August crude oil at 59.575, +1.475.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 1:01:46 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 12:58:22 PM

The DJUSHB has been testing 1000 for most of the last several days, and is currently turning lower again, at 995.40 as I type. There's potential Keltner support at 989.50-991.10 and then higher, at 994.27, but Keltner resistance just over 1000 looks firm right now. The DJUSHB can do strange things, so I wouldn't discount any possibility. Usually, however, when an index has broken out so strongly and then turns lower within the Keltner channels, finding resistance there, it retreats at least to mid-channel level to firm up support. That support is at 976.59-981.60, but is still rising. I'm not predicting this will happen, but suggesting it as one possibility.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 12:53:14 PM

Ten year note yields are down to a 1.4 bp gain at 3.959%. Daily chart updated at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 12:52:10 PM

Headline:

SNOW: LIKELY TO NAME CHINA MANIPULATOR IF NO FOREX MOVE

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 12:46:35 PM

QQQQ is in a new short cycle downphase as price tests upper descending flag resistance: Link . At this point, a timid, corrective low volume drift off the highs, which it has been so far, would be bullish as QQQQ tests its range highs. The daily cycle buy signal printed last week, so far weak and tractionless itself, remains the clearest cycle signal in many sessions, and a pattern of higher daily highs and lows would cement that longer-cycle bias from here.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 12:45:08 PM

SOX pullback so far looking bull flag-ish on the 30-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 12:42:59 PM

NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 2,102.15 +0.48% ... no buy/sell program premiums so far today. Should we see a COMPX close above 2,100 and nq05u settlement above 1,555, will most likely look to make some bullish adjustments in my current MM profiles. Specific to SMH (closing covered calls) and AAPL (possible covered July $37.50 put sell)

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 12:37:50 PM

On a daily chart basis, there's nothing alarming about the OEX's pullback off Friday's high. It still looks like a bull flag. The BIX's pullback is a bit more troublesome, because it currently looks like a potential evening-star formation, depending on how it closes today. The RLX has traded sideways for four days, coiling, so there's little information given from a study of this index as yet. The TRAN still sits at the bottom of its ascending regression channel, not moving much off its 200-ema or that support. The SOX has zoomed up, but small and mid-caps aren't responding much, as they might typically do with a tech revival.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 12:31:00 PM

JB Oxford (JBOH) $2.75 +60.81% ... speculation of acquisition target.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 12:28:57 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 367.61 -0.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 12:28:09 PM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 156.47 +1.04% ... extending gains after yesterday's all-time high!

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 12:26:49 PM

QQQQ drifts sideways above 38.05 here, back within the now-rising 30 and 60 min channels as volume declines. Link The price pattern suggests that the current low volume pullback is a bull flag. However, with the 30 min cycle oscillators rising slowly, a break below 37.90 would set up a bearish divergence. A high volumme break above the session high will rule in favor of the former, below the 72 SMA at 37.90, the latter.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 12:18:02 PM

The RUT isn't showing a breakout of its recent range and neither is the MID, the S&P Midcap 400 index. It's testing the high of that range, but not breaking out.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 12:16:51 PM

The RUT hit the Keltner resistance I mentioned earlier, now at 644.31 and turned down, but it hasn't even tested first Keltner support yet, at 642.98, so it's far too early to assume that the RUT will turn down through that channel again. If it holds that support on 15-minute closes, then it's more likely to keep challenging that resistance. It's at 643.39 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 12:15:39 PM

Ten year notes are edging lower off their 11:05 high, TNX currently up 1.8 bps at 3.963%. Crude oil is up 1.3 or 2.24% at 59.35, 15 cents off the session high.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 12:15:05 PM

The OEX bounced from Keltner support and did not complete the evening-star formation that it had threatened to complete on the 15-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 12:11:30 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 12:11:27 PM

The OEX threatens to complete an evening-star reversal signal on its 15-minute chart, depending on how this 15-minute period closes. It's descending back to test Keltner support near 571. Just didn't trust that upside move, and still don't. Not yet.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 12:10:02 PM

The BIX still teeters on creating a breakdown signal, but it's so far clinging to mid-channel Keltner support on the 15-minute Keltner chart.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 12:09:14 PM

The TRAN is turning down again, but I suspect it's only reforming into a wider bear flag, a sturdier one that can perhaps retrace a higher percentage of today's steep drop.

Tab Gilles : 6/23/2005 12:07:29 PM

Follow-up to TLT. Which way are bonds going? Bill Gross yesterday stated that the Fed will be forced to cut rates by year end, he has also been getting out of TIPS. So, is inflation no longer a threat? I'd enterd into TLT puts 2 weeks ago and sold 1/2 and re-entered only to be stopped out. Link

On the $USB watch the 121 level a break over that and bonds will take off. Then again if 121 proves to be resistance and bonds sell off then the downside target could be 116. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 12:03:11 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 12:00:57 PM

QQQQ update at this Link , volume declining on the pullback off the high with volume breadth positive, still 2.87:1. Price has pulled back to the upper 30/60 min channel tops, with the short cycle oscillators now in overbought territory. Below 38, the 72 SMA has made it to 37.90.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 11:59:33 AM

TRAN still testing 3500, at 3501.21 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 11:57:48 AM

OEX has punched above the top of the neutral triangle for the last few days, but I just don't like this tendency of the candles to form upper shadows. It is, however, holding above Keltner support that looks relatively firm, in the 571-ish zone. The upper boundary of the Keltner channel that's been holding the OEX this week is now at 573.16, but there's something I just don't trust about this as the BIX is only seeing a corrective-type bounce (TRAN, too) as yet, so I don't know that I'd trust that the upside target is going to be met. Too many key indices showing opposite tendencies here to be confident. Either the strong ones are going to haul the weaker ones to their feet or else the weaker ones are going to pull the stronger ones off theirs. Or else there will just be this bifurcation in which case the OEX will likely suffer some choppy moves.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 11:53:32 AM

August crude +1 point or 1.72% at 59.10.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 11:52:17 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $39.74 +3.08% ... filling its recent 06/03/05 gap.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 11:51:43 AM

RUT moving up toward the top of the 15-minute channel that has contained it this week. Top resistance at that channel is 644.26. A 15-minute close above that channel suggests an upside target of 646.18, but there's definitive Keltner-style bearish divergence as this upper channel is tested. Time for that to be changed? Perhaps, but it's a bit strange that the Russell 2000 is a follower and not a leader today, isn't it?

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 11:51:23 AM

QQQQ clears daily R1 and is printing above 30 and 60 min channel resistance on a surge in volume, so far over 2.2M shares within this 3 minute bar.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 11:48:53 AM

New high for QQQQ at 38.13. Volume overall is light at 43.1M so far today.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 11:48:14 AM

The SOX has punched above the 30-minute Keltner resistance during the ongoing 30-minute period. That resistance is currently at 443.78, and SOX bulls would rather that the SOX did not pull back and close below that level this 30-minute period. Daily resistance is at 444.76, and SOX bulls would like to see a clean break above that on the daily close, although evidence since late last year says that bullish plays are living on borrowed time at this level, testing or above this channel line. Pullbacks are not always major, however. A strong breakout above that Keltner line that continues for more than a couple of days would be a change in tenor for the SOX.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 11:43:58 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $25.52 +1.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 11:43:23 AM

NASDAQ Comp (COMPX) 2,103.14 +0.54% ... 2,100 alert.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 11:41:26 AM

QQQQ tests upper 30 and 60 min keltner resistance here: Link . The 30 and 60 min cycles have resolved their confusion to the upside, but the upside 30 min keltner break tends to market the spot where bears push back. Above 38.10, we'll have a bullish trending move, while bears need a break of 38.00, followed by a move below the 72 SMA at 37.85 to stall the intraday upphases.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 11:41:17 AM

Hmm. Just found this old OEX weekly chart with a resistance zone marked on it. Don't know why I put it there, but I know it's been there for a long, long time because I had to extend the red line forward a few months before posting this. The red descending trendline on MACD is new, though. I was just noting this morning the pronounced bearish divergence that was in place January, and also noting that the MACD is coming up to challenge that descending trendline. Bears want the OEX to turn down from that resistance with the MACD turning down, too. Bulls want the opposite. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 11:36:19 AM

August crude oil +.825 at 58.925, off a high of 59.275. 50-tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 11:34:08 AM

The OEX's last 15-minute candle was a much stronger candle than bears wanted to see. It pushed above Keltner resistance and back into the triangle formation from the last two days. It has not broken through to the upside, however. It is above Keltner support at 570.66-570.91, and that's where bulls want to see it stay on 15-minute closes. Otherwise, this 15-minute zoom out of the until-then-bear-flag-looking formation will itself be questioned.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 11:33:56 AM

Volume breadth is positive, still 1.1:1 on the NYSE, 2.29:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 11:28:46 AM

A look at the SOX on a daily Keltner basis, emphasizing again that the SOX approaches a breakout zone, but also tests resistance that it rarely closes above on a daily basis: Link While I wouldn't call this a short signal, I certainly would have profit-protecting plans in place if long and just follow the SOX higher if it moves higher.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 11:25:34 AM

A look at the SOX on a Keltner basis: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 11:24:42 AM

Upside QQQQ 30 min channel resistance is at 38.09, 60 min resistance is below it at 38.05.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 11:24:02 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $25.44 +1.47% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 11:20:25 AM

3 day view of the SOX at this Link , looking considerably more bullish than the broader QQQQ.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 11:17:37 AM

Volume breadth is now bullish on both exchanges, advancing shares leading 1.1:1 on the NYSE and 1.81:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 11:14:44 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 11:14:16 AM

From Reuters Link :

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A divided U.S. Supreme Court ruled on Thursday that a city can take a person's home for a development project aimed at revitalizing a depressed local economy, a decision that could have nationwide impact.

By a 5-4 vote, the high court upheld a ruling that New London, Connecticut, can seize the homes and businesses owned by seven families for a development project that will complement a nearby research facility by the Pfizer Inc. drug company.

Under the U.S. Constitution, governments can take private property through their so-called eminent domain powers in exchange for just compensation, but only when it is for public use.

Justice John Paul Stevens wrote for the court majority that the city's proposed disposition of the property at issue qualified as a "public use" under the Constitution.

He said the city's determination that the area was sufficiently distressed to justify a program of economic rejuvenation was entitled to deference. ...

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 11:11:37 AM

TRAN still testing 3500 from the underside, at 3499.84 as I type. Keltner resistance at 3505.84 and somewhat scattered above that at 3513.15 and then near 3526. The TRAN has created a downside breakdown signal on the 15-minute Keltner channels.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 11:10:44 AM

QQQQ pops back above 72 SMA resistance here, currently testing upper 30 min channel resistance at 37.89, lined up with the daily pivot: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 11:09:11 AM

The RUT is just not budging much today. It's negative, but not by much, and it's right smack in the middle of the Keltner channel defined by 639.74 to the downside and 644.06 to the upside, with that channel holding all moves on 15-minute closes since Monday morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 11:09:05 AM

August gold continues higher, a session high just printed at 444.30, +4.5. Next resistance is in the upper March range at 446, 450 and 453. 20 day bollinger resistance is at 444.77.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 11:08:42 AM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $36.99 +0.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 11:07:54 AM

Google (GOOG) 292.65 +1.13% ... busting a move

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 11:04:37 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 10:59:59 AM

The OEX's bounce hasn't been much of a bounce. It's instead trading sideways as Keltner resistance courses down toward it, with first Keltner resistance now at 570.44 and then at 570.91-571.37. Support is below at 569.24-569.51, however, and so there could still be a punch up to test that 571-ish resistance. No clarity as to whether that will happen or not.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 10:57:57 AM

No bounce still on the BIX. It looks as if it might create a breakdown signal on this about-to-be-completed 15-minute candle, although that conclusion is a bit iffy. If it closes below a Keltner line currently at 367.41 and doesn't see a quick reversal, it's set up a downside test of its 200-sma according to Keltner evidence. It could be a quick test, too. Market bulls want to see a quick reversal, then. The BIX is at 367.03 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 10:55:01 AM

Filled at $1.40 on four (4) of the LUV-XC. Will record this as entry price. LUV $14.14.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 10:54:17 AM

Ten year bonds are recovering, TNX down to a 1.7 bp gain at 3.962% and ZN up to 113 1/2 here. Updated daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 10:49:39 AM

Bearish swing trade put alert .... taking four (4) of the Southwest Air LUV Dec $15 Puts (LUV-XC) at the offer of $1.35. LUV $14.22 -0.97% here.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 10:48:56 AM

The RUT just isn't moving much, is it?

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 10:46:26 AM

The TRAN is attempting a bounce. It's testing 3500 from the underside, being at 3496.77 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 10:45:43 AM

No bounce yet on the BIX. Thre really should be at this Keltner level. If not, matters don't look good.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 10:41:12 AM

From Reuters:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned on Thursday that any congressional bid to impose punitive curbs on Chinese imports with the aim of protecting U.S. jobs was doomed to failure.

In prepared testimony for delivery to the Senate Finance Committee, Greenspan said stiffer duties on Chinese imports would simply shift the source of U.S. imports to other low-cost suppliers.

"A policy to dismantle the global trading system, in a misguided effort to protect jobs from competition, would redound to the eventual detriment of all U.S. job-seekers, as well as millions of American consumers," he said.

Greenspan said the sooner China adopted a more flexible currency, the better it would be for it and for the global economy -- a position that the administration of U.S. President Bush has advocated for the past two years.

Greenspan was appearing in front of the committee along with Treasury Secretary John Snow, who similarly said that trying to compel China to adopt a more flexible currency through imposing tariffs on its imports would be counterproductive.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 10:40:04 AM

BIX at mid-channel Keltner support on its daily chart, testing that support currently at 367.41, with the BIX currently at 367.28. There should be a bounce attempt here. If not and if the BIX were to fall through and close 15-minute periods below that Keltner support, the downside target is 363.78, just below the 200-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 10:37:21 AM

Session low for NQ and QQQQ, QQQQ at 37.73: Link . August crude is up to a session high of 59.175.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 10:37:07 AM

We have seen so many days in which a potential reversal signal seems to be underway on one index or another, as it is on the BIX now, with the BIX turning down after yesterday's shooting star, only to see a midday or afternoon reversal undo the whole reversal signal. So, I'm not counting on the BIX confirming that reversal signal by printing a tall red candle, but it's currently at least printing a small red candle on the daily chart. Be very wary, however, if bearish and the BIX were to turn positive today for more than a few moments.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 10:35:41 AM

My battery backup has kicked in twice in the last 15 minutes. If I go offline, that'll be why.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 10:34:47 AM

Volume breadth is still mixed, declining volume leading 1.1:1 on the NYSE, advancing volume 1.38:1 on the Nasdaq. The TRIN and TRINQ have risen to .77 and .64 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 10:33:44 AM

The OEX has obviously broken down out of its neutral triangle, but it's pushing Keltner support lower rather than violating it. That Keltner support is at 569.34, and OEX traders might expect a bounce attempt somewhere near that level. A bounce attempt may be starting now. Resistance can now be expected near 570.70-571.30, and bears want to see a rollover there. That would constitute a retest of the former support to see if it holds as resistance. That's exactly what bears want to happen and they want to see the OEX roll over there.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 10:26:40 AM

August crude is up to a session high here, +.7 at 58.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 10:23:34 AM

Another surge of volume as QQQQ breaks below 72 SMA support, stalling the 30 min cycle upphase. support remains at 37.63-.65, but these cycles are nowhere near oversold, and the channel bottoms should begin dropping lower if price holds below the 72 SMA. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 10:18:41 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 10:15:30 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 10:12:46 AM

GE down to a .87% loss here at 35.19, back to levels not seen since April.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 10:11:26 AM

Here's where the TRAN is this morning with regard to green 200-ema and its rising regression channel: Link Precarious place.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 10:04:35 AM

VIX.X 11.21 +1.44% ... Daily Pivot Levels ... 10.64, 10.89, Piv= 11.10, 11.35, 11.56.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 10:04:34 AM

Volume breadth is back to mixed, declining volume leading 1.21:1 on the NYSE while advancing volume leads 2.01:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 10:04:25 AM

TRAN below 3500.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 10:03:12 AM

Ten year yields up 3.5 bps at 3.98% following the news, QQQQ holding at 37.92. The CBOE reports the first half-hour's total put to call ratio at .71.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 10:03:53 AM

This is strange, strange. Some key indices leading markets down (BIX,TRAN--wow, look at the TRAN); some zooming up. What are you going to trust? I don't trust anything too much, but I don't want to be long too much with the TRAN have dropped almost 70 points and falling out of its rising regression channel on the daily chart (although it's met one Keltner target now) and the BIX declining, too. Either the SOX and some others are going to pull markets up or the TRAN and BIX and some others are going to pull it down, but this is strange. Both the TRAN and BIX approach Keltner support, so I would expect some bounce attempts from them, but the SOX is at Keltner resistance, and I might expect at least a tepid pullback there, so they could head opposite directions again.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 10:02:41 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 10:02:15 AM

Full text of Greenspan's testimony at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 10:01:44 AM

Headline:

U.S. EXISTING HOME SALES DOWN 0.7% TO 7.13M IN MAY

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 10:01:22 AM

Headlines:

GREENSPAN WARNS AGAINST 'STEP BACK INTO PROTECTIONISM'

GREENSPAN: FLEXIBLE YUAN WOULD AID CHINA'S ECONOMY

GREENSPAN: ANTI-CHINA TARIFFS WON'T PROTECT U.S. JOBS

GREENSPAN: STRONGER YUAN WOULDN'T SHRINK U.S. TRADE GAP

GREENSPAN: NO EVIDENCE STRONGER YUAN CREATES U.S. JOBS

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 9:59:18 AM

Existing home sales due in 2 minutes, est. 7.15M. As well, Greenspan and Snow take the podium before the Senate Finance Committee in Washington.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 9:57:47 AM

Someone has probably already mentioned it, but the SOX is leading the way higher, having jumped all the way almost to upper Keltner resistance on the 30-minute chart, a time interval chart that I like to watch for the SOX. That upper resistance for the SOX is at 442.49 currently.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 9:55:48 AM

Another Nasdaq test of 2100 and the upper Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart at 2099.89. This channel has been holding the Nasdaq on 15-minute closes with a couple of minor exceptions all week. A breakout suggests an upside target of 2108.41, but the recent pattern has been a downturn through to mid-channel support after tests of this resistance, with the mid-channel support now at 2087.31. Time to see if this is going to be the pattern-changing move or if we're still bound up in these consolidation moves.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 9:55:45 AM

The Fed has announced a 6.25B overnight repo to replace the remaining 9.25B expiring, for a net drain today of 3B.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 9:55:04 AM

December Heating Oil (ho05z) $1.72 +0.58% (30-minute delayed) ....

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 9:55:00 AM

QQQQ pulling back from upper rising 30 min channel resistance at the high of 38.03. Bears need to see south of the 72 SMA at 37.84 to stall the upphase. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 9:53:28 AM

The DJUSHB jumped up to retest 1000 from below, but the current 15-minute candle is so far a harami right in the middle of that first 15-minute tall white candle. It's an inside-day candle, for those not familiar with harami. The DJUSHB is at 995.11 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 9:53:16 AM

The realtime put to call ratio as reported by DTN is .58, verging on an extreme low reading.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 9:54:06 AM

GE printing session lows, -.54% at 35.31. The Reuters headline was tht GE has reaffirmed Q2 and full year profit forecasts, but it's getting sold so far.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 9:53:35 AM

FedEx (FDX) 82.40 -6.49% ... sharply lower after reporting Q4 profit of $448 million, or $1.46 per share, which was 2 cents below consensus of $1.48. Sales in recent quarter came in at $7.72 billion, also shy of consensus of $7.82 billion. The company said Q4 results were hurt by costs associated with the start-up of a new westbound, around-the-world flight. Looking forward, the shipper said it expects Q1 2006 earnings to be $1.10-$1.25 per share, which is below current consensus of $1.26 per share. The company said guidance reflects the recent escalation in jet fuel prices, which are expected to remain elevated during the quarter.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 9:51:33 AM

May be time for the BIX to bounce soon, as it now heads even closer to 567.56 Keltner support. The BIX is at 368.32 as I type. Market bulls want to see it bounce and close 15-minute periods above Keltner resistance at about 369. Those in a bearish mood don't want to see it bounce or want to see it continue 15-minute closes below that first resistance if it does.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 9:49:21 AM

The Wilshire 5000 is bouncing now, but bouncing within its mostly 12,027 to 12,100 range, at 12,056.74 and rather close to the middle of that range. Not much to be gained from the knowledge that its current 15-minute candle is positive within that range.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 9:48:52 AM

Volume breadth is positive, advancing volume leading 1.18:1 on the NYSE and 2.66:1 on the Nasdaq, with the TRIN down at .7 and the TRINQ .43.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 9:47:21 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,505.53 -1.76% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 9:47:09 AM

QQQQ blowing past yesterday's afternoon highs, up to 37.98 here and a cent off the high just printed. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 9:46:34 AM

Gold and silver are holding their gains, gold +2.22 at 442, hitting a session high as I type, silver +.044 at 7.305. HUI is up 1.7% at 199.75, XAU +1.41% at 92.59.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 9:45:19 AM

Unlike the TRAN and the BIX, which are showing some troublesome signs for bulls today, the Nasdaq hangs right in there below the 2100 level. Please tell me we aren't going to have another of those bifurcated days when some indices head one way and others, another.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 9:45:15 AM

Ten year treasuries recovering off their lows, TNX currently +2.6 at 3.971%, holding within yesterday's range. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 9:43:59 AM

BIX falling again, toward mid-channel Keltner support at 367.55.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 9:43:38 AM

QQQQ $37.85 +0.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 9:43:09 AM

Qualcomm (QCOM) $34.85 -0.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 9:44:43 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) alert $35.31 +0.95% ... see Market Monitor 06/21/05 10:42:09

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 9:41:50 AM

Couldn't get a chart for the TRAN for a while, but I see that it opened at the 200-sma and has now dropped way below it, toward the bottom of its QCharts-drawn rising regression channel. The bottom and the 200-ema are roughly congruent, with the 200-dma at 3501.67, just above round-number support. Market bulls want the TRAN to bounce here and not fall through that channel's support. As I've mentioned before, this channel is a bit too wide in comparison to the trading that immediately preceded it to be considered a classic bear flag, but bulls still don't want its support being violated. The TRAN is at 3507.61 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 9:37:54 AM

BIX bouncing back up to the flat-line level.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 9:35:42 AM

The OEX is again testing the bottom version of the supporting trendline for its now-elongated neutral triangle, with that support at about 570.75 and the OEX at 570.83. A Keltner channel with support at 569.53 has been containing most OEX moves this week--ALL OEX moves on 15-minute closes--so a 15-minute close beneath that would be needed to confirm any breakdown.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 9:33:20 AM

BIX dropping this morning, something that bulls didn't want to see after yesterday shooting star candle and near miss at a key reversal day.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 9:32:41 AM

QQQQ is challenging its premarket lows here, with 72 SMA support at 37.81. The 30 and 60 min channels remain superimposed, resistance at 37.95, support 37.64.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 9:32:19 AM

OEX still within the coiling formation.

Jeff Bailey : 6/23/2005 9:26:53 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.03 and set for program selling at $+3.58.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 9:21:05 AM

The Fed has 17.25B in various repos expiring today, against which an 8B 14-day repo has just been announced. That leaves 9.25B with which to deal at the 10AM short term announcement.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 9:06:53 AM

Gold is hitting new highs here, +1.70 to 441.50 off a high of 441.70 a minute ago, with QQQQ back to 37.88. Currently, the 30 min cycle points higher while the 60 min cycle remains stalled/sideways at the midpoint of its range. The short cycle indicators are chopped up as well, but are pulling up on the bounce from 37.83.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 8:56:35 AM

Session low for ten year notes, QQQQ and YM still sitting on session lows. I'm hearing that rumors of a possible ECB rate cut are circulating, and the USD Index is at a session high, challenging 89 resistance.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 8:55:27 AM

I thought it was going to be so easy yesterday. We came into the day with nicely formed neutral triangles on the OEX's and several other indices' intraday charts. While markets have done everything they can to confound as many people as possible lately, I was just keeping my eyes on those formations, ready to go with the flow. On the OEX, we had closely aligned Keltner S/R lines just outside the triangle, so that 15-minute closes above or below the appropriate Keltner lines would confirm the breakout. Easy, right? Well, there was no flow to go with, but only a sideways movement. At least the OEX's Keltner lines worked as they should, since violations of the triangle's trendlines proved brief and soon reversed. Since they were never confirmed by 15-minute closes outside those Keltner lines, no one was fooled.

But what are we supposed to expect next? Since this triangle in the OEX formed after a climb and since most such formations are continuation formations, we should perhaps expect an upside break. Since the RUT and some other indices have bull flag-like formations, and since those are usually continuation formations, too, we should perhaps expect upside breakouts on those indices, too. But the Nasdaq actually pierced the 2100 level yesterday and fell back. I've been thinking that it's entirely possible that the Nasdaq could bump around a while longer inside the range for its right shoulder on the potential inverse H&S. There's no proof that will happen, but symmetry with the left shoulder would suggest it as a possibility, coupled with summertime doldrums. The TRAN found resistance this week at the midline of its rising regression channel off the spring low, rather than rising up through the upper half of that channel. It ended the day sitting just above the 200-sma. Its pattern could be a bull flag, too, forming below the midline of that rising regression channel.

Most troublesome for bulls was the BIX's behavior. The BIX moved to a new high for this move, zooming up early in the day, but then falling steeply to close only a few cents above the open, juuust barely avoiding a key reversal day and instead creating a shooting star potential reversal signal. The Wilshire 5000 punched up above 12,100 again, but then fell back, although the Wilshire's actual pattern on the daily chart could still be a consolidation pattern. Being that the Wilshire 5000 is challenging the March high, the possibility of a double-top formation can not be ignored, however.

So, we wait again today. A 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 569.55 suggests a downside target of 566.18 and a 15-minute close above the one currently at 573.43 sets an upside target of 575.78, with that being near the top of the OEX's broadening formation and perhaps also near the top of the ascending regression channel in which the OEX has been trading since 6/09. Bulls or bears should have profit-protecting plans in place as those targets are met after the appropriate breakout signal is triggered, if it is. I would suggest that trading the channel, buying support and selling resistance, would be a better bet than a breakout play, but the OEX's moves within that channel have been narrowing too much to allow such a suggestion. If entering a breakout play, though, even if confirmed by Keltner evidence, be wary of a potential quick reversal back into the channel defined by the numbers listed above. Watch the RUT and BIX in particular, as well as the Wilshire 5000.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 8:44:26 AM

I mentioned something late yesterday about hoping that the durable goods number today would get something moving in the markets, but of course, I jumped the gun as that release is not until tomorrow. We'll have to hope that existing home sales and Greenspan and Snow do that for us, instead.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 8:33:38 AM

Ten year notes are holding their losses, still holding above the earlier lows with TNX up 2.3 bps at 3.968%. NQ and QQQQ are at session lows of 1546 and 37.84, ditto YM at 10622, while front month August crude is +.325 at 58.425. The drop in equities are so far been light, still easily within yesterday's ranges.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 8:31:44 AM

Headlines:

U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 20,000 TO 314,000

U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS LOWER THAN EXPECTED

U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 38,000 TO 2.60 MLN

U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 2,500 TO 333,000

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 8:19:00 AM

We await the 8:30 release of initial claims, est. 330K, and at 10AM existing home sales, est. 7.15M. As well, Greenspan and Snow will begin speaking at 10AM on US/China relations.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/23/2005 8:14:35 AM

Equities have ticked lower, QQQQ down to a 5 cent gain at 37.86 and the futures negative, while gold is now up 20 cents to 440.Ten year notes are holding their losses, edging up to 113 29/64 off a low of 113 25/64, while crude oil is up to a 22.5 cent gain at 58.325.

Linda Piazza : 6/23/2005 7:27:22 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei chopped around in a tight zone but closed at the high of that zone. Most other Asian markets climbed, but China's Shanghai Composite was not one of those gaining bourses. European markets gain this morning. Our futures have drifted sideways to sideways down ahead of today's economic developments, with futures being slightly negative as of 7:14 EST. As of 7:14 EST, gold was up $0.20, and crude, up $0.12 to $58.21. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

In Japan, the Q2 corporate business sentiment index registered at -2.4 for large manufacturers, with this result a better-than-expected number and less than the -7.6 drop seen in the fourth quarter. For large non-manufacturers, business sentiment registered +2.9, less than the 5.5 seen for the first quarter. These numbers are showing conditions consistent with those expected from the central bank's tankan survey to be released July 1. Another number showed that a survey measuring the full-year all-industry capital expenditure plan showed an 8.1% increase as compared to the 7.4% decrease in the previous survey. A little later, the much-watched tertiary index rose 1.8% month over month, and the tertiary and all industries activity index rose 1.7% month over month. Both were slightly better than expected. Quarter over quarter, the all industries activity index climbed 1.4% in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the index increased by 0.9% over the previous quarter's number. Since this number is seen as a good approximation for the GDP, the second quarter is seen as getting off to a good start. Market watchers found the numbers encouraging. Various Bank of Japan members, at least three, spoke last night about yuan reform, the likelihood for a soft or hard landing in China, and the timing or likelihood of a policy shift in Japan, with some differing impressions given by the various members.

The Nikkei chopped around in a 46-point range in overnight trading, moving back and forth several times before closing at the top of the range, up 29.47 points or 0.26%, at 11,576.75. Tech stocks performed well in early trading.

Most other Asian markets gained, although China's did not. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.25%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.86%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.78%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.21%. China's CNOOC, its third largest oil producer, made an $18.50 billion cash offer for Unocol, beating Chevron Corp.'s offer. China's Bank of Communications climbed from its IPO price. The Shanghai Composite dropped 0.76%.

European markets climb this morning, with a weakening of the yen helping exporters, particularly automakers. Chip-related stocks rose, with a German newspaper speculating that Infineon Technologies AG is considering spinning off its DRAM memory chip unit in an IPO to be offered this fall. The U.K.'s BT Group PLC has been told that the U.K.'s telecommunications regulator that it won't be forced to sell the wholesale unit but rather will be allowed to spin it off into a new division, with BT shares climbing strongly as a result. In other news among European telecoms companies, Merrill Lynch downgraded Deutsche Telekom AG to a neutral rating, and the stock eased in early European trading. HSBC benefited from the strong performance by China's Bank of Communications' IPO. HSBC owns about 20% of China's Bank of Communications. Many other company-specific news releases were impacting those specific companies, but this report grows too long to include all.

The U.K.'s Blair addresses the European Parliament this morning, saying that the European Union should not spend 40% of its funds on farm subsidies. He said that the choice for the Union is not a simple choice between a free-market Europe and a social one, between a political union and a mere free-trade zone. In the U.K., June's CBI industrial trends survey declined to -25 from May's -22, with this number disappointing. Expectations had been for a figure of -21. The component measuring output expectations balance fell to a -5 from the previous -1. The export order book and stocks of finished goods remained unchanged. In Italy, consumer confidence for June declined to 102.9 from May's revised-slightly-lower 104.3 number. The number disappointed, as market watchers had expected no change from the previous 104.4 figure for May. The component measuring consumer's view of the economy climbed dropped to 76.0, its lowest level in 10 years according to a forex news source. A seasonally adjusted number dropped, too, to 103.4 from 104.0 in May.

As of 7:18 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 13 points or 0.25%, at 5,112.30. The CAC 40 was higher by 11.37 points or 0.27%, at 4,240.92. The DAX was higher by 11.65 points or 0.25%, at 4,631.25.

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