Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 12:24:11 AM

SPY open interest for 06/24/05 close at this (prices and volume = 06/27/05 close) Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 12:11:43 AM

SPY most active options for 06/27/05 at this Link ... Focusing on $118 strike (large blocks / June Monthly Pivot)

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 11:51:02 PM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.64 and set for program selling at $+3.24.

OI Technical Staff : 6/27/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 4:56:37 PM

VIX.X ... DAILY Pivot Levels for tomorrow based on h/l/c of 12.78/12.38/12.52 ... 12.16, 12.34, Piv= 12.56, 12.74, 12.96.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 4:53:50 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 4:33:43 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 4:26:40 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... Today's action finds the NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio reversing 3-boxes to 84%. Updated NYSE NH/NL chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 4:05:46 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 3:59:22 PM

As many suspected might happen, the OEX consolidated today, producing a doji on the daily chart. That's a potential reversal signal, but remember that such signals must be confirmed. The doji can also just be a sign of indecision or can lead into a period of consolidation.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 3:52:35 PM

The OEX is still between the 200-sma and -ema's.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 3:49:29 PM

QQQQ $36.78 -0.51% ... showing a huge volume spike of 68.8 million shares traded hands from 03:00-30 at price range of $37.08-$36.96 Friday afternoon. Hadn't notice that until just now.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 3:48:06 PM

Once again, that tentative OEX move above Keltner resistance is not holding, at least not yet.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 3:42:40 PM

Without a bounce, the SOX is going to end the day beneath its 200-week sma.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 3:42:10 PM

RUT still bouncing around within its consolidation formation. It may be forming into a neutral triangle.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 3:38:57 PM

I am a reader who always appreciates your timely news announcements in addition to your market commentary. This morning, I discovered that the FOMC dates printed on the OIN mouse pads are not correct. The pads show June 28 & 29 while the actual meeting date is June 29 & 30 according to briefing.com and others. Please note this for other readers.

Good catch, Al, and thanks for the props. The FOMC meeting kicks off Wednesday, and the announcement will be Thursday, a departure from their usual schedule. This will be noted in tonight's Market Wrap as well.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 3:35:12 PM

The OEX's move above the Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart has once again been tentative, and there's a hint of a red candle forming on the just-begun 15-minute period. Those hoping for a bounce want to see that Keltner resistance converted to support and for the OEX to move cleanly away from it. Next Keltner resistance near the 200-sma and then at 561.49 on the 15-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 3:32:37 PM

QQQQ is back up to declining 72 SMA, looking similar to its positioning just past noon. The last such bounce above the 72 SMA reversed about 10 minutes after the initial break, but a move above 36.90 confluence would confirm that this isn't another false move. Declining volume is 1.91:1 over advancing Nasdaq volume.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 3:30:10 PM

The OEX's 60-minute chart now shows a tweezers bottom formation, a reversal signal. The OEX hasn't made it above the 200-sma yet, however, and it's likely to find strong resistance near 562.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 3:22:56 PM

The lower trendline of the OEX's broadening formation from the daily chart is just under 562, so a rise up to that level, if it occurred, would be a retest of that former supporting trendline. That trendline declines, so it will move lower if the OEX doesn't test it soon.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 3:19:23 PM

Tentative OEX 15-minute close above Keltner resistance that has been holding it back for several days, on 15-minute closes. It's tentative as yet, but the OEX is trying to move up from that former resistance. The 200-sma is at 560.23.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 3:14:11 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 3:12:39 PM

Once again, as it did this morning, the OEX is attempting to push past the 15-minute Keltner resistance that has held it back for several days. As had happened earlier today, Keltner resistance thins somewhat above this level being tested now, so if the OEX could ever break cleanly above it, it might rise by a point or two at a time until next facing resistance. It has not closed a 15-minute period above this resistance, up to 560.53, however, but it's nudging above the strongest resistance. Needs to hold there.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 3:09:24 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 3:06:45 PM

Keltner resistance on the SOX at a 30-minute Keltner line currently at 422.36, with that resistance on 30-minute closes since Thursday.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 3:01:54 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 2:54:05 PM

The Keltner resistance that has been holding the OEX back since the middle of Thursday except for a brief period this morning is now at 559.53 on the 15-minute chart. Keltner resistance from 559.40-560.41.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 2:47:49 PM

RUT not making much progress yet as it tries to move up through its recently established consolidation zone. Fifteen-minute Keltner resistance appears to be giving it some trouble.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 2:46:49 PM

Volume breadth continues to deteriorate as price chops sideways near the lows, declining volume now leading 2.23:1 on the Nasdaq and 1.51:1 on the NYSE. QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycle indicators are trending in oversold, while the daily cycle points lower off the sell signal issued on Friday's drop. The intraday cycles are geared up for at least a corrective bounce- but with trending oscillators, the one valid signal can be preceded by hours of false ones. Pricewise, a move above 36.88 should be the real thing in terms of an intraday reversal- below that, there's no way to tell if it's just another of the false starts we've been seeing all day.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 2:39:22 PM

RUT trying to rise again from that sub-626 level, perhaps up to test the top of its new consolidation zone, at about 629.40. If this is a "b" consolidation pattern, the RUT might have a long way to go down still. Soon perhaps that consolidation zone will have firmed up enough that we can watch for a breakout one direction or another and be fairly confident of that event occurring when it does . . . unless there's a quick reversal, of course. Smile.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 2:33:13 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert for 1/4 bullish position in shares of U.S. Energy (USEG) $3.72 here, stop $3.45, target $4.50. New York Times article that U.S. may resume platonium production at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 2:31:37 PM

August crude oil has closed +.775 at a record high of 60.575, off a high of 60.95.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 2:27:04 PM

QQQQ has just exceeded the previous half-hour's high, coming up for a test of previous support turned resistance at 37.80. Bulls need a sustained break of 36.88, the current location of the 72 SMA, to stall the ongoing 30 min channel downphase and confirm a new short cycle up. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 2:25:56 PM

Except for a brief and tentative period, the OEX has been pressured lower since Thursday afternoon by a Keltner line currently at 559.71 (15-minute chart). It's joined by Keltner resistance from 559.64-560.58, and of course by the 200-sma's and -ema's in that same zone. The OEX needs to climb above that resistance and stay there before there's hope of even a countertrend bounce. By the way, there's now a tentative bearish kiss on the MACD lines on that chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 2:17:27 PM

Ten year note yields are holding their small losses, with ZN bonds up 5/64 at 113 29/32. August crude is quoted at 60.625, off a high of 60.95.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 2:14:27 PM

QQQQ $36.75 -0.59% .... DAILY Interval bar chart at this Link ... looking to sell some naked July $36 puts in coming sessions.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 2:10:24 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 2:05:16 PM

RUT testing the previous LOD.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 2:04:33 PM

Maybe I should have put a little more faith in that OEX 556-ish target set by the 60-minute Keltner channels, mentioned this morning. I let my bias that the 200-sma and -ema's might prompt a bounce get in the way of putting faith in that target. It doesn't look so far away now, does it, with the OEX at 558.77? The OEX still looks vulnerable to that target as long as 60-minute closes remain below Keltner lines currently at 561.20-561.69.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 2:02:23 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 2:02:17 PM

Volume breadth is negative 2.38:1 on the Nasdaq and 1.66:1 on the NYSE, TRIN neutral-bearish at 1.32 and ditto the TRINQ at 1.42.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 1:59:47 PM

QQQQ coming for a test of 30/60 min channel support and daily S1 at 36.72: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 1:56:46 PM

SOX headed down toward its 200-ema. The SOX bounced from his average on 6/15, coming within 60 cents of that average. The average now is at 419.26 and the SOX at 420.97. The 200-sma is below at 413.84. It should be noted, of course, that the SOX is beneath the important 200-week sma.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 1:51:01 PM

Still no confirmation on the RUT for its double-bottom formation and the RUT now turns down again.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 1:50:17 PM

The OEX has now dropped below the 200-ema, too.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 1:49:32 PM

As I scan the daily Keltner charts of a number of indices, I see that they're testing mid-channel Keltner support today, which could account in part for the small-range day so far, although there's a natural tendency for small-range days to follow big-range ones, too. The RLX and BIX both test mid-channel support on their daily Keltner charts, for example.

Neither the TRAN nor the Dow number among those indices testing daily Keltner mid-channel support, however. Both have already broken beneath that support, with the Dow looking vulnerable to 10,181.66 on the daily chart and the TRAN testing a breakdown level on that chart. A daily close today below a Keltner line currently at 3400.99 would set up a possible downside target near 3190.87, although the TRAN sometimes overruns this channel line for a day or two, but seldom more than a week since last fall's upside breakout of this channel. The TRAN, especially, needs to bounce today at least a little.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 1:43:26 PM

QQQQ volume is up to 43.7M shares total, just under 1/3 of Friday's volume, with declining volume leading 1.92:1. The short cycle indicator is trying to turn up, but it's just noise below 36.90-.93 resistance. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 1:40:47 PM

The RLX had been forming a potential inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart, as it rose in a bear flag, broke down, and then rose again, but the last breakdown about an hour ago has extended that right shoulder far enough that I don't think we can consider that a valid inverse H&S formation any longer. MACD flattens now below the signal line. If it turns down again, there's the possibility for a strong downdraft since the whole upward sweep of the MACD since the bullish cross Friday morning has not brought prices higher. I'm wondering if price movement with a MACD bearish cross might be as tepid as the upward movement, though, ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 1:39:01 PM

QQQQ $36.86 -0.29% ... NASDAQ has reported that as of June 15, short interest on QQQQ rose to 192,183,852 from May 13 short interest of 190,620,039. With average daily volume dropping to 87,354,383 from 104,935,378, current days to cover stands at 8-month high of 2.20.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 1:29:30 PM

The RUT is testing 60-minute Keltner resistance from 629.23-631.84, with that resistance looking significant.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 1:27:21 PM

QQQQ just failed on its first test of former rising support at 36.90 Link , but the short cycle indicators are closer to a bottom than to a top. The remaining intraday cycles are overdue for a bounce, but so far the price action has been a low-volume extension of Friday's decline. 30 and 60 min channel support are lined up at 36.75, 3 cents above daily S1.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 1:20:36 PM

On the OEX's 60-minute chart, the OEX still looks vulnerable to the 556 zone, and will continue to look vulnerable until and unless it can close 60-minute periods above a Keltner line currently at 561.70-562.06.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 1:16:42 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $36.90 -2.27% ... probing morning lows now.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 1:10:06 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 1:08:35 PM

The 16B 13-week t-bill auction had a high yield of 3.08% with a 2.22 bid-to-cover ratio, while the 26-week bills fetched a high-rate of 3.22% and a bid-to-cover of 2.27. Foreign central banks took 8.5B of the 30B total. Currently, ten year note yields are down 1.4 bps at 3.9%, ZN bonds pulling back from a 114.0 high.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 1:03:07 PM

The OEX is still trapped between its 200-sma at 560.23 and its 200-ema at 559.36. The OEX is at 560.05 as I type. I'm having dreaded visions of the OEX staying trapped here into the FOMC meeting's outcome.

By the way, a medical test for a family member will likely take me away from the markets most of Wednesday.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 1:02:03 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 6/27/2005 1:02:44 PM

GOLD On 6/17 12:34 PM I suggested taking some money off the table on gold. Today I'm setting some stops. On the $GOX at 80; 100 ma; 50% Fib retracement level. Link Link Link Link

Placer Dome PDG Stop $14.78. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 1:00:36 PM

The RUT never confirmed its double-bottom formation, at least not yet.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 12:56:56 PM

The OEX's tentative conversion of Keltner resistance into support has not been successful as the OEX heads down through that support again. There's been no 15-minute close beneath that support yet, but the OEX could be trying to form a bear flag. If so, we could have some zigging and zagging still ahead.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 12:54:33 PM

TRIN 1.12 -22.22% ... doesn't want to stay below 1.0 for more than a couple of minutes. Sellers still seem to have some conviction vs. buyers.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 12:53:40 PM

August crude currently quoted at 60.875. IB isn't providing session high or low, however.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 12:53:14 PM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) ... 60-minute interval chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 12:50:56 PM

QQQQ is pulling back to the session lows, currently -.08 at 36.89, the short cycle indicators turning down from their sideways upphase. 30 and 60 min channel support at down to 36.76-.78. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 12:50:38 PM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) ... 30-minute interval chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 12:46:00 PM

TRAN not showing any tendency to bounce yet, moving deeper into the 3375-3400 potential support zone.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 12:43:48 PM

OEX Option Chain at this Link ... might be seeing a "little too much" 565/560 call buying and 570 put selling today, where OEX might get a 5-point bounce. Protect some gains in the naked 580 calls, but would look to resell them if stopped out on OEX bounce.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 12:42:35 PM

OEX still maintaining a tentative hold above Keltner support.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 12:36:39 PM

The RLX's move above former Keltner resistance has been tentative, too, but it has at least pulled away from that former resistance, making it look more like support now. The RLX's pattern looks like a bear flag, however. Another key index to the OEX's trading behavior is the BIX, and that's trying to rise from the LOD, a slightly lower low than Friday's, but still within double-bottom range of Friday's low. The BIX, too, looks as if it's converting former Keltner resistance into support. If there is a bounce, I don't know that I'd be playing it by going long with OEX calls. It's too likely a countertrend play.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 12:34:03 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 12:31:43 PM

Tentative OEX 15-minute close above that band of keltner lines mentioned in my 12:25 post, but tentative only. Still hasn't pulled free of that former resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 12:30:49 PM

Volume is extremely light- QQQQ's traded just over 1/5 of Friday's volume here at midday.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 12:25:28 PM

The OEX is trying to follow the RLX's example (as it often does) and convert former 15-minute Keltner resistance into support. Those Keltner lines are currently at 560.55-560.86, with the OEX at 561.01, but not having yet completed a 15-minute close above those Keltner lines. The conversion into support is tentative, then, as the OEX hasn't really pulled free of their resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 12:25:36 PM

The Treasury is auctioning 16B of 13-week bills and 14B of 26-week bills, the results of which are expected at 1PM. Currently, ten year notes (ZNU5) are flat, while ten year note yields (TNX) are down .3 bps at 3.91%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 12:22:50 PM

Bearish naked call place stop alert ... place stop on the five (5) naked S&P 100 OEX July 580 Calls (OEB-GP) at $0.45. ($0.30 x $0.40) OEX 561.23 +0.23% here. VIX.X 12.44 +2.13% ...

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 12:19:08 PM

RLX is converting former 15-minute Keltner resistance into tentative support. I had mentioned earlier that it was strengthening with respect to this band of Keltner lines. Next resistance at 439.08-439.97 and then at 442.70, near the 38.2% retracement of the steep decline. That suggests that the RLX's zigging and zagging could well be part of a bear flag climbing off the low reached Friday.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 12:16:37 PM

RUT now testing the confirmation level for its double-bottom formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 12:16:05 PM

QQQQ breaks 72 SMA resistance: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 12:11:56 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 12:10:23 PM

Another failure at the 72 SMA for QQQQ. Volume breadth has improved, however, with declining volume ahead just 1.05:1 on the NYSE and 1.43:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 12:08:08 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 12:01:57 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 12:01:52 PM

The TRAN has moved in a tighter range today, still testing 3375-3400 support.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 12:00:40 PM

BIX at a new LOD. Not good news for OEX traders, but the retailers are pulling the opposite direction, at least temporarily.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 11:57:21 AM

The RLX is trying to scramble above the Keltner resistance that's turning back the OEX. The RLX hasn't quite been successful yet, but far more successful than the OEX. I'm watching to see if it's going to lead the OEX higher. The RLX did confirm its double-bottom formation on the 10:30 candle, but it's now back below the confirmation level, so there's mixed evidence on this chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 11:52:33 AM

72 SMA resistance is down to QQQQ 36.99 here. A break above that level would be the first since Thursday, and will confirm the 30 min cycle oscillator strength that has yet to get any price traction.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 11:52:02 AM

RUT hasn't confirmed its double-bottom formation yet, but it may be getting ready to test the confirmation level, at 629.43. The RUT is at 628.24 as I type, and 15-minute Keltner evidence suggests that the test of the confirmation level, or at least 629.14, may occur.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 11:48:42 AM

American Ammunition (BB:AAMI) $0.13 +30% ... announcing it has received a 5,000,000 round order for its 5.56 mm M200 round from Alliant Techsystems (ATK) $68.76 +1.41%.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 11:44:06 AM

OEX continues sideways to sideways lower while 15-minute MACD continues its upward move. Prices need to follow upward, too, or else this is going to look like the downtrend remains intact.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 11:41:00 AM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,191.45 (unch) ... updated daily interval bar chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 11:40:32 AM

Once again, the OEX turned lower from 15-minute Keltner resistance now from 560.49-561.70.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 11:34:20 AM

The 30 min cycle indicators are on a preliminary bullish divergent buy signal, while the 60 min indicators are on bullish kisses. This contrasts with the very weak volume and weak price action below the 37.06 high. If the bulls are able to take out that high, these oversold intraday cycles should be able to generate a bounce. However, the short cycle upphase has been very weak this morning. For that reason, I'm thinking that either a break of 37.06-.10 or 36.80 will be directional, as either the short cycle will begin trending (to the upside) or the 30 and 60 min cycles (to the downside).

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 11:31:55 AM

The RUT this morning tested Friday's low, establishing a potential double-bottom formation. Confirmation requires a move above the peak between the two troughs, with that peak at 629.43. The RUT is at 628.50 as I type. Those hoping for a move higher don't want to see a quick reversal lower just after confirming the double-bottom formation, if that confirmation should come.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 11:22:36 AM

Fifteen-minute OEX Keltner resistance from 560.52-561.67.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 11:18:40 AM

Volume breadth has worsened but overall volume is quite light, just 23.9M QQQQ shares traded so far today compared with Friday's 142.3M total (average is 90.13M).

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 11:18:30 AM

OEX just above the 200-ema again.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 11:18:09 AM

BIX testing this morning's and Friday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 11:09:03 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 11:08:49 AM

That 15-minute Keltner resistance still holds. Here's what should be concerning to those options traders who are considering buying the dips: 15-minute MACD continues higher since Friday morning, and prices are just not following. What's going to happen if MACD prints a bearish cross from below signal? I'm not tempted to enter long with OEX options plays here, since I now consider them countertrend plays, but I just don't see this is a low-risk new entry point for bearish plays, either. Perhaps today we'll get the consolidation day that I expected Friday. Those in bearish plays, particularly July ones, need to decide how they'll handle such a consolidation day, if it occurs, ahead of an upcoming two-day FOMC meeting.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 11:02:25 AM

Session high for 10-year notes, TNX down 1.3 bps to 3.901%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 11:02:05 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 10:59:02 AM

QQQQ failing again from a lower high. The short cycle indicators are in an upphase of sorts, so corrective that it barely has a positive slope. The 30 and 60 min channels are no longer declining, but to call the sideways drift on both sides of unchanged an "upphase" would be a stretch. Bulls need to clear 37.05 to generate some bids- a weak sideways bounce from the lows would pave the way for a powerful decline to follow.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2005 10:53:56 AM

These two going in opposite directions will keep the markets in a narrow range. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 10:49:53 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $37.83 +0.15% ... edges green.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 10:47:37 AM

I mentioned that the OEX was soon going to be facing significant resistance on the 15-minute Keltner chart, and it's been doing that, with the resistance at 561.39-562.07 on 15-minute closes. So far, it's holding, but am not certain how long it will. Today, I'm reading charts as showing a too-be-expected bounce attempt at a bounce, but with some charts showing a possibility of more follow-through to the downside. I'm not phrasing this well, but bullish and bearish strength seem about equal now, but there almost feels as if both are pushing hard, and if one gains a momentary advantage, the OEX could run up or down a few quick points before getting stalled again.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2005 10:46:50 AM

Dateline CNN U.S. Supreme Court rules Ten Commandments displays are not allowed at courthouses.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2005 10:46:26 AM

Dateline WSJ The U.S. Supreme Court sided with the entertainment industry's lawsuit against Internet file-sharing companies Grokster Ltd. and StreamCast Networks Inc., in a decision that has broad implications for Hollywood and Silicon Valley.

The unanimous decision reverses two lower-courts rulings and is a key victory for the recording industry and movie studios, who have waged a legal assault to crackdown on illegal sharing of music and videos over the Internet.

In another high-profile case, the Supreme Court ruled that cable companies may keep rival Internet service providers from using their lines, backing the Federal Communications Commission decision to limit competition.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 10:46:14 AM

Teco Energy (TE) $18.45 -0.05% Link ... announces that it has completed its previously announced early redemption of the entire $380 million principal amount outstanding of 10.5% notes due 2007. The total aggregate redemption price was approximately $437.2 million, including $2.9 million of accrued interest.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 10:44:25 AM

Volume breadth remains negative 1.17:1 on the NYSE and 1.29:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ has yet to break its prior high, though the 30 min channel downphase is stalling early, with the channel bottom stabilizing at 36.80.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 10:37:05 AM

SOX bouncing back above the 200-week sma, having hit 60-minute Keltner support, with that support at 423.15 on 60-minute closes. It faces first 60-minute Keltner resistance now, at 424.85 on 60-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 10:32:32 AM

A first tentative OEX 60-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 560.51, the first sign that bulls are trying to marshal their forces. Dialing down to the 15-minute chart again shows that the tentative change in tenor is going to soon be put to a first test, with strong Keltner resistance from 561.44-561.91.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 10:30:56 AM

Ten year notes are pulling back from their 113 31/32 high, TNX currently down .4 bps at 3.91%.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 10:28:42 AM

QQQQ is bouncing now from its nominal lower low, and bulls ned to see a break of the prior 37.06 high. The 72 SMA is now at 37.06 as well, and above it the 30 min cycle downphase will stall. 3 day intraday chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 10:32:45 AM

Petrokasakhstan (PKZ) $37.56 +15.5% Link ... the Calgary-based oil and gas company with operations in Kazakhstan confirming it is in talks with several parties to be acquired, but stressed there are no guarantees that a deal will be reached.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 10:23:18 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 10:21:07 AM

The OEX's daily Keltner chart suggests that 551.15 might be possible, with the 60-minute chart suggesting a potential target of 556.40, but I'm just not sure how much faith to put into those targets, and I wouldn't expect that daily one to be met today, anyway. The 60-minute potential target remains in place as long as the OEX continues 60-minute closes below the Keltner lines currently near 562.80. So far, the OEX has been finding resistance on 60-minute closes at a lower Keltner line, with that line currently at 560.52, so that's the first change that bulls need to put into effect if a bounce is to get started: a close above that Keltner line.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 10:18:15 AM

VIX.X 12.55 +3.03% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.77, 11.95, Piv= 12.13, 12.31, 12.49.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 10:17:24 AM

Quotetracker users looking QM quotes need to update the symbol from QMQ5 to QMQ05. Currently, August crude is quoted at 60.50.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 10:13:08 AM

As Marc has probably pointed out on the Futures side, the SOX's decline has dropped it below the 200-week SMA, with that average at 424.07 and with the SOX at 422.58 as I type. The SOX's daily Keltner chart on Friday had been predicting a drop into the 417-420 zone, with the SOX now testing the first level of daily Keltner support, at 422.20. That support extends down to 417.89.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 10:11:37 AM

Express Scripts (ESRX) $50.20 -0.79% Link ... trades post 2:1 split.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 10:09:28 AM

QQQQ is back to the premarket lows. 30 min channel support is down to 36.80, while the 60 min channel bottom is here at 36.89. If current levels hold, then most likely we can expect sideways chop as the 60 min cycle consolidates at the bottom for its next upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 10:09:27 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 10:09:06 AM

The OEX still tests its 200-sma and -ema's, between the two at its current 560.05 level.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 10:05:50 AM

The OEX's 15-minute chart says that 561 and then 561.90-562.04 could be strong resistance for the OEX. Like the RLX, already facing lines analogous to the OEX's 562-ish Keltner resistance, resistance thins above that, but there's no guarantee that the OEX won't continue to find resistance at that grouping of lines in the 562 zone.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 10:02:25 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 10:02:08 AM

Volume breadth is now negative on both exchanges, declining volume leading 1.59:1 on the NYSE and 1.6:1 on the Nasdaq. The TRIN is at 1.41, TRINQ 1.19, both in neutral bearish territory.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 10:00:34 AM

The Fed has just replaced a 4.75B weekend repo from Friday with a 6.5B overnight repo, for a net add of 1.75B today.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 10:00:16 AM

The RLX has been trying to form a bear flag since about 2:00 Friday afternoon. It's climbing up within that flag now, facing resistance that looks relatively firm from 438.27-439.03. Above that, however, resistance lines thin, and the RLX could perhaps climb first to 441.02 resistance and then perhaps to 443.91-445.24 resistance. A 38.2% retracement of its decline is near 442.44 and a 50% near 444.41. Needs to be propelled through that first resistance, though, and that's not a given.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 9:56:27 AM

The RUT heads down for a retest of Friday's low, it appears.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 9:55:14 AM

Southwest Airlines (LUV) $13.58 -2.02% Link ....

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 9:54:32 AM

The OEX tries to steady, but 15-minute MACD has been rising ever since Friday morning while prices decline, and that's not a particularly good sign for a bounce. Bears nevertheless need to keep those profit-protecting plans in place as the OEX is testing key support.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 9:54:26 AM

Airline Index (XAL.X) 46.10 -2.43% Link ... sector loser early.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 9:44:15 AM

The Dow opened just above Keltner support on the 60-minute channel, with that support now at 10,285.70 and is trying to rise from that support. Next resistance at 10,317.73 and then 10,362.80, and then stronger, just above 10,400.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 9:42:18 AM

Watching the RUT. It's remaining slightly negative, but like many other indices, not really moving much.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 9:40:38 AM

QQQQ engulfes the previous 3 minute candle, retesting 37.00 from below. Volume was only slightly higher, but the bid gapped up on the 3 minute chart. The 72 SMA (factoring out premarket data) is at the daily pivot, 37.08: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 9:40:34 AM

The BIX has been retesting Friday's low this morning, so far putting in just a slightly higher low. That's not confirmed by a push above Friday's high, however, and the BIX has Keltner resistance at 362.99-363.33.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 9:38:25 AM

The OEX's 60-minute chart shows a downside target of 556.48, but I'm not certain how much faith to put in that target, with the OEX just above the 200-ema. I'm not putting a lot of faith in it, which might turn out to be a mistake.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 9:35:51 AM

RUT slightly negative, by less than a point, but had opened slightly higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 9:35:02 AM

Volume breadth has just ticked positive on the Nasdaq, advancing volume 1.2:1 over declining. On the NYSE, it's 1.67:1 for declining volume. QQQQ is still struggling to regain Friday's lows.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2005 9:33:34 AM

TS's VIX is sitting at 20.88. I will have to wait until this gets fixed.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 9:32:58 AM

OEX heads slightly lower in earliest trading. It ended the day with a breakdown signal on the last 30-minute candle on the 30-minute Keltner channels, but that was only a minimal breakdown. Sometimes prices overrun support a little near the end of the day, so I'm watching to see if we really can turn to the 60-minute chart now to set a downside target. I don't think we can confidently do that just yet, although it perhaps might happen. The OEX has inched below the 200-sma but has the 200-ema just below at 559.36.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2005 9:29:58 AM

Dateline WSJ Federal prosecutors are investigating one of the nation's most aggressive class-action law firms, Milberg Weiss Bershad & Schulman, for alleged fraud, conspiracy and kickbacks in scores of securities lawsuits, and could seek criminal charges against the firm itself and its principals.

The three-year investigation focuses on allegations that the New York-based firm routinely made secret, illegal payments to plaintiffs who appeared on securities class-action lawsuits brought by the firm, according to court documents and lawyers close to the case. A grand jury in Los Angeles convened last October has been hearing evidence of alleged illegal payments in dozens of suits filed against oil, biotechnology, drug and chemical companies during the past 20 years, the lawyers close to the case said.

Prosecutors offered a glimpse of the broad investigation in an indictment filed in federal court in Los Angeles on Thursday against a single plaintiff, Seymour M. Lazar, a retired Palm Springs, Calif., entertainment lawyer who is 78 years old.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 9:31:59 AM

Walgreen (WAG) $44.38 Link ... jumping to $45.90 pre-market after the nation's largest drugstore chain reported a 20% increase in Q3 profits. The company said net earnings for the most recent quarter came in at $411 million, or $0.40 a share, up from $342.3 million, or $0.33 per share in the same period last year. Excluding a gain of $6.6 million from litigation settlements, Walgreen's earnings rose 19.5% to $406.9 million, also 40 cents a share and beating the average estimate of $0.38 from analysts.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 9:26:24 AM

OPEC - DJ - OPEC President may reach decision on output hike this week.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 9:24:47 AM

QQQQ is holding just above the 36.88 premarket low, -.07 at 36.90. The 30 and 60 min cycle indicators are at the bottom of their range, the 30 min cycle trending in oversold and the 60 min cycle buried but not yet trending. An intraday upphase, very likely corrective, sideways and weak, is due. The daily cycle printed a fresh sell signal on Friday, confirming the recent upphase as a bull trap. 30/60 min cycle bulls need to see the current lows hold to 36.85, and a break above the 72 SMA at 37.04 to stall the ongoing trending intraday downphases.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 9:24:45 AM

Continuous Oil ($WTIC) Link ... with August Crude Oil futures (cl05q) $60.37 +0.88%, will most likely find another triple-top buy signal on $WTIC conventional $0.25 box chart. Still some room to its bullish vertical count of $66.25.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 9:20:46 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $37.76 Link .... lower at $36.89 after weekend Barron's article said the company's iPod music player could face growing competition from advanced cell phones.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2005 9:20:25 AM

Exxon Mobil (XOM) $58.15 Link ... edging higher at $58.45 after company said it will take a $200 million second-quarter charge after the Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling in favor of gas station owners who said the company overcharged them.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 8:49:36 AM

The OEX dropped all week last week, moving lower off the last touch of the upper boundary on the broadening formation, at the previous Friday's high. By the close last week, the OEX had dropped all the way through that broadening formation, violating the bottom trendline and closing beneath it for the first time. Link So, there's a possibility that we can consider the broadening formation violated to the downside, confirming traditional technical analysis that tells us that broadening formations at the top of a climb are bearish. That's not an event bears could count on happening over the last several years. However, because the OEX ended the day at the 200-sma and -ema's after days of steep declines, I don't consider the breakdown out of the broadening formation yet confirmed.

Because we saw several days of declines, either a consolidation day or a bounce might be expected today, but that's not guaranteed. The 60-minute Keltner chart suggests there could be more follow-through on the declines. All the previous comments were written Friday afternoon before I left for a weekend trip, but now futures this morning confirm the possibility of more follow-through on the declines. The OEX is in a zone that might be considered potentially firm support, so bears need to have profit-protecting plans in place as a bounce could come any time.

Since the OEX ended the day below mid-channel support on the daily chart, we should be switching to a sell-the-bounces approach. That chart suggests that 561.60-564.90 will be likely resistance. That's a rather broad range, so my tactic today will be to stand back and watch the bounce, if it occurs, and see what form it takes and how Keltner channels set up as it bounces. Without a bounce, I would be hesitant to enter new bearish positions just ahead of a test of the 200-sma and -ema's, but I'll watch how that test proceeds, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 8:38:33 AM

Looks like IB still isn't serving Nymex data. Futuresource.com reports the price of August crude at 60.42, +.59 and off a high of 60.64.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 8:29:10 AM

Restarting IB just worked. ES is down 1.25 to 1194.5, NQ -3.5 to 1508, YM -11 to 10314 and QQQQ is down 7 cents to 36.90. Gold is down 1.2 to 440.8, silver -.034 to 7.243, ten year notes are up 1/64 to 113 27/32 and crude oil is up 37.5 cents to 59.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 8:25:15 AM

IB just posted a notice to the effect that "some customers may" experience datafeed issues.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/27/2005 8:03:16 AM

I've just finished rebooting and resetting, only to have other traders confirm that Interactive Brokers is offline and I have no realtime data for the moment.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

Linda Piazza : 6/27/2005 7:07:14 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei gapped lower Monday morning and traded in a tight range the rest of the day. Most other Asian markets declined, with China's an exception. Most European markets lose ground this morning. Our futures had steadied into the European open, but then dipped into negative territory, where they remain. As of 6:54 EST, gold was down $1.00, and crude, up $0.44 to $60.28. Crude was off the overnight high. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped lower Monday morning and traded in a tight range the rest of the day. It closed lower by 122.75 points or 1.06%, at 11,414.28. Exporters suffered from the performance in U.S. markets Friday and from fears related to rising crude prices after Iran's election of a new leader who is felt to be ultra conservative. Investors were also in the mood to take profits ahead of the July 1 release of the Bank of Japan tankan business sentiment survey. In addition, bird flu was confirmed in an area near Tokyo, although this strain appears less dangerous than that previously found.

Most other Asian markets fell, too, with China's being one exception. The Taiwan Weighted declined 0.59%, and South Korea's Kospi fell 1.13%. South Korea's tech stocks declined, with big-cap exporters in general declining. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.76%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.38%. With a press conference planned in which the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission would talk about developments in capital markets, investors had an appetite for Chinese issues, feeling that equity-positive measures might be revealed. China's Shanghai Composite gained 2.07%. The chairman said that China had no need for a third batch of sales of government-owned non-tradable shares. The previously announced sales had raised worries about liquidity and pressured Chinese issues.

Most European markets decline, hit by rising crude prices and J.P. Morgan's dour outlook on the next few months' corporate earnings. The firm named financials, technology, industrials, materials and retail as most vulnerable. In Germany, the Ifo Institute's German business climate index rose in June to 93.3 from May's 92.9, in line with expectations.

European auto manufacturers and airlines fall, hit by rising crude costs. M&A activity dictated movement in some shares, too. Fortis dropped after bidding for Dutch merchant bank NIB Capital, with other companies, including GE Capital and Lehman Brothers, also interested in the bank. Champagne and hotels group Taittinger SA climbed after announcing that it's looking at several takeover offers. TNT announced that it's not interested in the Belgian De Post/La Poste shares the government offers as it's not interested in a joint venture.

Stock-specific developments guided some trading. Deutsche Bank upgraded British commercial broadcaster ITV PLC, but that stock declined. U.K. homebuilder Persimmon steadied after it revealed that first half profit would climb although the company had completed fewer homes. PartyGaming's IPO began conditional trading on the London Stock Exchange after a price was set at the low end of the planned range, with the shares gaining strongly in early trading.

As of 6:56 EST, the FTSE 100 had fallen 39.50 points or 0.78%, to 5,039.50. The CAC 40 had declined 44.86 points or 1.07%, at 4,155.01. The DAX had declined 43.58 points or 0.95%, to 4,522.90.

Market Monitor Archives