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Marc Eckelberry : 6/29/2005 2:46:33 AM

Yes, I have been calling 62 as a top for some time, but now that we dropped 58.80 (50% May projection ), not so sure anymore. We can expect that (58.80) to be a fulcrum tomorrow when all the pre-and post announcement volatility takes effect.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 2:42:51 AM

Hey Marc! Just seeing you and your chart. Yes, I also like the way oil has traded against the bullishly fit 38.2% at 12:57:42. However, if the resulting 100% of it is settled above, then your chart gives another upside level to $62.05.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/29/2005 2:41:29 AM

Good source of information, thank you.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 2:38:47 AM

If you're interested in finding the various EIA history, click this Link . I selected the "Table 3" and XLS link for the data set I showed at 02:08:23.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/29/2005 2:35:40 AM

Good analysis, Jeff. You're also right in pointing out that oil traders don't pay much attention to oscillators (that has burned many novice shorts recently). However, they do trade fibs. This chart is very interesting, fib projections off May H/L. As you can see, works to a tee. We get critical below 58.03 and even more so below 57.09 (that one sits right near 20 dma, they do trade those as well): Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 2:31:55 AM

Hmmmm ... Exxon Mobil (XOM) $59.09 ... its 7.8% below its all-time high of roughly $64.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 2:29:13 AM

WEEKLY EIA data where I took portions of the weekly data (crude oil, gasoline and distillate), then made my own column of Weekly Change, then at the bottom of the following table, added up 1 Month, 2 Months and 3 Months worth of inventory data. Here's the table at this Link ... I'm not an "oil market reaction forecaster," but my best guess, based on this data, is that if there is a BUILD in Crude Oil Inventory of ...mmmmm... 2 million barrels, then oil will trade sharply lower tomorrow. 1 month ago (05/27), August Crude Oil was trading $52.36, so it is up 11.1% to date. 2 months ago (04/29) August Crude Oil was trading $52.40, here too about 11.1% higher to date. 3 months ago (04/01) August Crude Oil was trading $59.09, so oil is down about 1.5% quarter-to-date. Now a test .... Over the past month, Crude Oil stockpiles (excluding SPR) are down 1.48% (4,968,000 divided by 333,848,000). This seems out of whack doesn't it? Does the futures MARKET know something that a month-to-month comparison of EIA data not tell us? By these comparisons (EIA Crude Inventory) and August Futures price benchmarking, there could be about 10% downside price risk reaction in futures.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 1:15:29 AM

A relative strength chart of LUV Link vs. the Airline Index (XAL.X) Link at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 1:11:17 AM

I contemplated closing out the four (4) LUV Dec. 15 Puts (LUV-XC) today for break-even, but decided instead to trade long 300 shares with a "prove it to me" $14.01 entry. My predicament with this trade, as well as the two (2) XOM Oct. $60 Calls (XOM-JL) is "what do I do here," or better yet ... "what are traders going to do with oil?" Trader's cited that momentum bulls called it quits today (Tuesday) and they've called it quits before (04/04 - 05/23). My Market Monitor profiles are weighted BULLISH for "oil/energy" at this point and I will most likely have to get more defensive/cautious if I see a cl05q settlement below $57.22. I've read "fundamental" analysis from some that see it VERY difficult for commercial airlines to make money with oil above $35.00 per barrel, so I'm not overly confident trading an airliner without some type of protective put. There was a blurb on CNBC the other day regarding companies that are in "trouble" with underfunded pension plans, but it is a federal law that that information is not to be revealed to the public. I would think it a fair guess that some of the airlines would be among those that are on this list.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 12:57:42 AM

August Crude (cl05q) daily interval bar chart with some date benchmarks. Oscillators somewhat "helpful," but commodities are a different breed and traders DO NOT RELY HEAVILY (or they shouldn't) on oscillators. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 12:36:34 AM

But when it comes right down to it, it is Crude Oil Link that seems to have primary impact on broader market equity trade. And I'm about to lose my hair (what's left of it).

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 12:29:44 AM

U.S. Market Watch with 5-day (Tues-to-Tues) Net% and 20 day Net % at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 12:26:58 AM

Sector Bell Curve from Dorsey/Wright and Assoc. over the past 20 days at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 12:17:38 AM

August Crude Oil (cl05q) down 5 cents at $58.15.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 12:14:49 AM

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05u) 1,517.00 (unchanged) and have been bound between 1,516.00 and 1,518.00 so far this evening.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 12:02:13 AM

e-mini S&P (es05u) 1,206.25 is off 0.50 point and traded tight range during President Bush's address.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 12:00:51 AM

Tuesday-to-Tuesday sector bell curve from Dorsey/Wright and Assoc. at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 6/28/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 6:03:35 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 5:16:17 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... August Crude Oil (cl05q) settled down $2.34, or 3.87% at $58.20 in Tuesday's session (largest % single-day decline since 5/11 -3.11% and 5/12 -3.79%)

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 5:09:39 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 5:05:08 PM

Here's what I see as having happened on the OEX today, as noted on the daily chart: Link At the same time the OEX was rising up to retest that 100-sma, it was also rising into daily Keltner resistance and the 38.2% retracement of the decline of the decline off the Thursday high.

If today's rise had instead taken place across several days and was in the shape of a bear flag, I'd know what to expect. That would be a downturn from the mid-channel resistance and either the 38.2% or 50% retracement of the decline. That wasn't the shape the OEX's climb took, however, clouding the picture for both bulls and bears. The OEX didn't perform as strongly as other indices on a Keltner basis on a 15-minute chart, bears might argue. Today's candle erased nearly all Friday's losses, bulls might argue, and it was a bounce from the 200-sma and -ema's. The OEX is still below mid-channel Keltner resistance on the daily chart, the 100-sma and the 50% retracement of the fall off the March high into the April low, bears might argue.

Unfortunately, once the OEX begins testing daily mid-channel Keltner S/R, as it did Friday, it sometimes spends several days to several weeks oscillating around those Keltner lines before it finally decides on an ultimate direction, so that might be possibility on this test, too. That possibility, coupled with the FOMC meeting, might prompt traders to be especially careful. The daily chart suggests that until the OEX begins producing daily closes above a Keltner line currently at 565.49, it's vulnerable to more downside action. That 100-sma, up to 566, the 50% retracement of the drop off Thursday's high, appear key to watch, then.

Be careful tomorrow as there's sometimes a tendency for pre-FOMC-decision positioning beginning the day before that decision, with price movement less amenable to technical analysis. While the OEX is still below that mid-channel Keltner level on the daily chart and producing daily closes below the 100-sma, I'm still looking for a possible rollover point. With daily closes above that Keltner level and daily 100-sma, we'll have to look again at the possibility that the OEX might be attempting another push up toward 570.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 4:59:16 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 4:03:58 PM

GOOG cracked first, and QQQQ has spiked down to the 72 SMA on a surge in volume. This stalls the toppy 30 min cycle upphase, but bears need to take out those downside supports above 37 to reverse the intraday bullishness.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 4:01:39 PM

Thanks, Jeff, and others for your good wishes for Emmi.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 4:00:44 PM

I'll try to post my observations about the OEX's behavior today in about 30 minutes, since I won't be here tomorrow morning to do it. Be careful, everyone, as the FOMC meeting gets started.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 3:58:49 PM

I hope all goes well for your granddaughter Linda!

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 3:53:01 PM

The Wilshire 5000 posted strong gains today, but since the first several 15-minute periods, it has constrained its move higher into a narrow band of higher highs and lower highs. Traveling higher within that formation, it has managed to retrace more than 50% of the decline off Thursday's high, the last swing high before the decline that began Thursday. It has not moved above the appropriate right-shoulder level for a potential H&S on its daily chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 3:51:16 PM

QQQQ will leave off with the 30 min cycle maxxed out, or close to maxxed out to the upside, the 60 min racing to catch up, and the short cycle drifting off its highs, so far getting poor traction to the downside. The daily cycle is stalled and directionless low, yesterday's sell signal stalled. QQQQ bulls need a move above 37.29 to reignite the intraday bullishness and set off a 30 min cycle trending move, while the bears need a break below the 72 SMA at 37.10.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 3:46:02 PM

The SOX is again above that neckline but 15-minute candles flatten. Where's the exuberance after pushing above the neckline of an inverse H&S as well as the 200-week sma?

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 3:43:59 PM

Exxon Mobil (XOM) $59.18 -0.20% ... the other day I when oil was up and INDU was down sharply (China tariff talk), I made mention that "Dow membership had no privelege." Today, I would have to think the opposite, and that membership does have privilege.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 3:41:21 PM

Here's the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 3:35:22 PM

After falling to the bottom of January's big gap lower and then printing a doji at that support yesterday, the RLX has risen strongly today, so far doing a convincing job of printing a morning-star reversal signal. The RLX has not closed that gap today, however, and there's a suggestion of a H&S formation with a slightly descending neckline on the daily chart. A break much above 450 would negate that potential formation. The RLX is at 445.20 as I type, entering the appropriate right-shoulder level.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 3:34:52 PM

OEX 564.49 +0.88% ... WEEKLY Pivot here.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 3:32:35 PM

Long ago, I was taught that when there's a breakout above a key resistance level, as in the BIX's breakout above the supposed neckline of its inverse H&S earlier this month, and then there's an immediate reversal with an expansion of volatility coming along with that reversal, then that's a warning to bulls. That's why I've been paying special attention to the BIX.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 3:28:39 PM

Session high for August crude in the evening session, +.15 at 58.35.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 3:28:49 PM

BIX dropping back to test the 38.2% retracement of the decline off Thursday's high. Each gain is hard-won on this index today, but the BIX is now within the congestion zone from May. It's just hard to classify that formation on top of the BIX's climb as anything but a mess, although a long-term view does suggest that it could be an oddly shaped right shoulder for a potential inverse H&S. The BIX had seemed to have confirmed that H&S, but then fell back heavily, not particularly reassuring to the bulls. Now the BIX is trying again.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 3:25:04 PM

SOX still below that neckline level.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 3:23:11 PM

The 30 min cycle is as overbought as it's been in 2 weeks, while the 60 min cycle continues higher. The 72 SMA remains at 37.10, and a break below that level will stop the upphase, below which a break of 37.06 should be enough to kick off a new downphase.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 3:19:27 PM

The OEX is jammed underneath the 38.2% retracement of the decline and mid-channel Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. The OEX has moved up to challenge daily Keltner resistance, too, and that looks relatively strong, but so does the morning-star pattern the OEX may be producing today. Nothing's going to ever look straight-forward, is it?

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 3:17:30 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 3:12:05 PM

I wanted to remind readers before the close that I'll be out all day tomorrow due to a medical procedure my granddaughter is undergoing. Since we're off to the hospital in another city early tomorrow morning, I won't be doing the Asia/Europe update.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 3:10:47 PM

Another huge volume spike for QQQQ, nearly 2.5M shares within a 3 min candle. 30 min and short cycle channel resistance line up at 37.28, also daily R2.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 3:10:43 PM

Hmm. SOX back below that neckline level again, although only a few cents below it.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 3:04:35 PM

The OEX is making closer approaches to the 38.2% retracement of its decline off the Thursday high. That's at about 564.51, with the HOD at 564.28.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 3:03:08 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 2:59:49 PM

QQQQ $37.20 +1.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 2:59:23 PM

NASDAQ Comp. (COMPX) 2,070 +1.21% ... challenging QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot here.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 2:57:51 PM

RUT rising toward 640-640.50 resistance, with the RUT at 639.17 as I type. There's 60-minute Keltner resistance at 641.05 on 60-minute closes, with there being some preliminary Keltner-style bearish resistance on the 60-minute chart. That can be erased if the RUT pushes high and nudges Keltner lines higher along with it.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 2:50:31 PM

Wilshire 5000 now climbs off the 15-minute mid-channel level, above the 50% retracement of the decline off Thursday's high. It's set a tentative upside target of 12,019.90, but must maintain 15-minute closes above the Keltner lines at 11,927.53-11,938.36 to maintain that target. It's at 11,950.90 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 2:46:53 PM

Volume is still quite light, just 52.7M QQQQ shares and combined DJIA and Nasdaq volume of just 2.15B. Breadth remains very firm, however, 3.29:1 on the NYSE and 4.16:1 on the Nasdaq in favor of advancing shares.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 2:45:49 PM

SOX just touched 425.30, the neckline of the inverse H&S. Needs to hold above this neckline. Next Keltner resistance on the 60-minute chart (sometimes more relevant for the SOX) at 426.63, on 30-minute closes, then at 428.92, just under the 430-ish level that's the 38.2% retracement of the decline. The SOX's climb looks definitely bear-flag-ish.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 2:44:58 PM

VIX.X alert 11.69 -6.62%

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 2:43:24 PM

July $37 puts selling .... thinking $37 + $0.40 = $37.40 (close to weekly Pivot)

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 2:42:42 PM

A big surge in volume, more than 2M QQQQs within a 3 minute bar, with price testing session highs here. 30 min channel support is up to 37.25: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 2:41:59 PM

QQQQ Option Chain ... prior to a test of VXN.X and QQQQ Weekly pivot, which should take place today at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 2:41:53 PM

SOX may be attempting another neckline test, although I don't know how valid that inverse H&S could be considered at this point, as the right shoulder has extended so far in time. SOX at 424.99 with the neckline at about 425.30.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 2:39:45 PM

As a reminder, the OEX's 100-sma is at 565.27. All through from 5/20 until last Thursday, this MA has supported the OEX on daily closes, with many opens, closes or LOD's on this average. It's proven its relevance, so should prove strong resistance, too. I think. Smile.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 2:36:26 PM

VXN.X 60-minute interval chart with WEEKLY Pivot levels and Keltners at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 2:33:21 PM

VXN.X 14.94 -5.02% ... not yet testing its QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot (14.77).

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 2:33:12 PM

DWC (the Wilshire 5000) is still not moving up after breaking above the mid-channel Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 2:32:19 PM

Southwest Air (LUV) $13.97 +1.45% ... session high has been $14.05.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 2:31:23 PM

August Crude (cl05q) $58.20 -3.86% (30-minute delayed) ... "bad tick" to $55.20.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 2:31:18 PM

The OEX is still trapped between Keltner (and Fib) resistance and Keltner support. It hasn't broken above the mid-channel area on the 15-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 2:30:04 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $25.06 +0.03% ....

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 2:28:04 PM

SPY $119.93 +0.78% ... the July $120 Calls (SPY-GP) $1.10 have moved up to #1 most active with 2,549 traded. Sep $124 Calls (SPY-IT) $1.15 are #2 at 2,510.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 2:25:28 PM

Session low for August gold here, the USD Index still firm, currently down 4.9 at 436.80. Ten year bonds are edging up off their lows with little conviction, TNX still holding a 7.2 bp gain at 3.974%. QQQQ continues to chop sideways above 37.10, the 72 SMA 3 cents below it. 5-day 3-minute chart of QQQQ at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 2:24:38 PM

QQQQ $37.14 +0.92% ... 60-minute interval chart at this Link ... I would think bulls want to see any retest of $37.07-08 get a bounce, take out highs and close at highs of day.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 2:21:53 PM

Stuck on a call- back shortly.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 2:18:00 PM

SOX still hasn't confirmed that inverse H&S. That formation may be fizzling out, not good news for the bulls. They would have preferred to have seen the SOX long since confirm that formation. Other indices moved higher without even bothering with the right shoulders for potential inverse H&S's on their 15-minute charts, so there's something strange about the SOX's refusal to confirm its formation or even nearly approach a 38.2% retracement of the decline off the last swing high last week.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 2:16:29 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 2:14:21 PM

RLX, BIX and Wilshire 5000 all hesitate after breaking above the 15-minute mid-channel Keltner resistance. None can seem to make much progress after doing so, and the Wilshire turns down to retest that former resistance. The Wilshire 5000 had turned back from a 50% retracement of the decline off Thursday's high.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 2:07:29 PM

The OEX still hasn't broken above mid-channel Keltner channel on the 15-minute chart or the 38.2% retracement of its decline, lagging some other indices in this respect.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 2:06:52 PM

Session high for QQQQ at 37.18, approaching the rising 30 min channel top as the short cycle indicators enter into overbought territory. There's still room to run higher, and the bullish bounce remains healthy above 37.10 support. Volume breadth remains strong at 4.06:1 in favor of advancing Nasdaq shares.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 2:06:39 PM

SOX coming up to test the neckline of its inverse H&S, at about 425.30, with the SOX at 425.03. Bulls don't want to see a failure here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 2:05:37 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert ... for the QQQQ $37.17 +1% here, stop $36.65, target $39.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 2:04:44 PM

Ten year treasury yields have advanced to a 1.9% gain today, +7.4 bps at 3.976%. Link This is a very strong move running counter to the daily cycle downphase still in progress. The USD Index continues higher, back above 89.0 resistance. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 2:03:35 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 2:02:25 PM

The Wilshire 5000 is still not making progress after pushing above the mid-channel Keltner resistance on its 15-minute chart. It is, however, above its 38.2% retracement of the decline off Thursday's high and is actually testing the 50% retracements, at about 11,943.70. The Wilshire 5000 is at 11,934.22 as I type. Bulls want to see it maintain 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 11,925.59.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 1:58:10 PM

The Nasdaq one of the first indices to have retraced more than 38.2% of the decline off Thursday's high. It's testing that 38.2% retracement level, at about 2065.14, though, consolidating there with small-bodied candles. Bulls want to see 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 2063.87. The Nasdaq is now at 2066.14.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 1:48:54 PM

THe RLX, like the Wilshire 5000, isn't making progress after breaking tentatively above mid-channel Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. It's facing daily Keltner resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 1:45:02 PM

SPY Option Chain found at this Link ... SPY/SPX and VIX.X all at weekly pivot.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 1:44:13 PM

SOX not confirming its inverse H&S yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 1:43:06 PM

The 30 min cycle indicators are nearing overbought territory for QQQQ, the 60 min oscillators close behind. The current pullback off the highs is so far very reluctant, and the 37.10 breakout point has yet to be tested as support. 30 min channel resistance is up to 38.20 here, and the 30 min channel should continue to rise so long as QQQQ remains above the 72 SMA at 37.05. The first sign of trouble for bulls will be a break below 37.10.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 1:40:23 PM

Watching the Wilshire 5000, which is still showing some hesitation after pushing above mid-channel Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. Market bulls don't want it closing 15-minute periods below the Keltner lines currently at 11,926.34-11,930.63. As I type, the Wilshire eases a little from the day's high and is at 11,937.70.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 1:39:23 PM

SPX 1,200.23 +0.80% ... still pinned just under WEEKLY Pivot. VIX.X 11.79 -5.83% ... still sitting on its WEEKLY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 1:38:24 PM

Headlines:

BOND MARKET ASSN. EXPECTS OIL PRICES TO RETREAT TO $50

BOND MARKET ASSN. EXPECTS 4% FED FUNDS RATE NEXT JUNE

BOND MARKET ASSN. EXPECTS SOLID U.S. GROWTH THRU 2006

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 1:36:37 PM

The SOX hasn't quite confirmed its inverse H&S, but prices have rounded a bit higher, at least forming a possible right shoulder. The neckline is at about 425.30, with the SOX currently at 424.18, with the 200-week sma at 424.08.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 1:34:11 PM

RLX still trying to push up toward a 50% retracement of the steep decline, with that level at 445.68. However, the RLX's last 15-minute candle revealed some hesitation, as it was a spinning top. Bulls want to see a stronger candle this 15-minute period.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 1:31:20 PM

The Wilshire 5000 popped above mid-channel resistance on the 15-minute chart, but then appears to be printing a doji during the current 15-minute period, just about to be completed. Bulls want to see the Wilshire 5000 hold above 11,925.53 on 15-minute closes, maintaining a potential upside target of 12,021.35. These indices are hesitating a bit too much for my liking after punching above these mid-channel levels. I find myself somewhat hesitant to put much faith in the upside targets being met. I've been surprised before, though. The OEX has NOT popped above that mid-channel level yet.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2005 1:30:07 PM

Dateline WSJ Federal prosecutors have asked a U.S. judge to impose an effective life sentence for WorldCom Inc. founder Bernard Ebbers, convicted in March in the largest corporate fraud case in history, according to court papers released Tuesday.

Prosecutors are seeking 85 years in prison for Mr. Ebbers, 63 years old, for nine counts of fraud, conspiracy and making false filings with regulators.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2005 1:29:06 PM

Dateline WSJ A Federal jury found Richard M. Scrushy not guilty on all charges related to the $2.7 billion accounting fraud at HealthSouth. The verdict is a stinging defeat in the government's prosecution of corporate crime.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 1:26:48 PM

OEX still rising toward the 565.51 level that's the 38.2% retracement of the drop, with that level's resistance echoed by Keltner lines now at 563.97-564.38.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 1:24:38 PM

QQQQ volume yesterday at 72.8M shares was half of Friday's volume, and today were up to 42.6M shares. This light volume bounce off a high volume decline doesn't look particularly bullish, but if the price keeps rising, it should begin to attract buyers. NDX volatility (QQV) is back down to 14, OEX volatility (VXO) down .6 to 10.90.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 1:19:58 PM

RLX trying to push above that Keltner resistance again, confirming that push on the just-completed 15-minute period. It's above the 38.2% retracement of the steep decline. It's still not pulling free of that resistance to the degree that I would like to see, however, but may be getting ready to test the 50% retracement at 445.68. I'm watching this because this index is important to the OEX, too, and sometimes leads the OEX in challenging certain support or resistance levels. I wouldn't want to believe the OEX would maintain certain Keltner levels unless the RLX and BIX were, too.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 1:16:25 PM

OEX mid-channel Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart at 563.93-564.38, with the 38.2% retracement of the decline at 564.51.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 1:13:51 PM

The Wilshire 5000 is also doing its best to create a morning-star reversal pattern today . . . or is that the right shoulder for a potential H&S? Link Bullish or bearish, you could find evidence to support your theory here, and therein lies the problem as both might continue to battle. Both bulls and bears should be aware of the opposite possibility.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 1:13:18 PM

Upside 30 and 60 min channel resistance are being tested at the high of 37.15. If 37.10 holds on a retest, the reverse h&s pattern should be in play.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 1:12:20 PM

Advancing volume leads 3.48:1 on the NYSE and 4.28:1 on the Nasdaq, TRIN at .7 and TRINQ .57, both neutral-bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 1:12:07 PM

Bullish swing trade trigger alert ... Southwest Air (LUV) $14.01

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 1:11:37 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,200.36, DIA $103.69, QQQQ $37.11

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 1:10:48 PM

Paychex (PAYX) $33.62 +12.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 1:10:01 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 1:07:23 PM

QQQQ holds above 72 SMA support, poinbt back toward a retest of 37.10 resistance: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 1:06:29 PM

That right shoulder for the SOX's potential inverse H&S on the 15-minute chart is now stretching out a bit, time wise. SOX bulls need to push prices higher and up through the neckline to avoid an invalidation of that formation. It's not too late yet, but it will be if this sideways movement goes on through too many more 15-minute periods.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 1:03:47 PM

The 4 week bill auction set a high-rate of 2.025%, generating a respectable bid-to-cover of 3.06 with foreign central banks taking 1.74B of the 8B total.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 1:02:17 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 1:01:44 PM

The BIX's 15-minute mid-channel Keltner resistance appears to be firming, with that resistance up to 364.78 on 15-minute closes. The support beneath the BIX continues to look as if it's softening just a bit. Yet the BIX isn't pulling back yet, signaled by continuing 15-minute closes above Keltner lines at 364.20 and then at 363.54-363.84. At 364.44 as I type, the BIX is just a few cents above the 200-sma at 364.12.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 12:59:09 PM

VIX.X 11.88 -5.11% .... yet to test weekly pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 12:58:23 PM

OEB-GP ... session high still $0.35. OEX 562.69 +0.57%. There was a pretty good sized traded yesterday afternoon at $0.30 and after seeing similar action last month in a profiled SPX naked call, which then rocketed one-day against us, I use caution today. These likely go "poof" unless Fed shocks market on Thursday.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 12:58:01 PM

The RLX was not able to maintain its breakout above Keltner resistance, but is clinging to a Keltner line currently at 442.57, with the RLX currently at 442.77. OEX bulls would like to see the RLX maintain that support and move back above the resistance up to 443.50 and the 38.2% retracement of the decline, at about 443.32. They do not want to see the RLX roll over. There's a hint of a H&S forming on the five-minute chart, with a right shoulder still to be formed.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 12:55:44 PM

Awaiting the results of the 8B 4-week t-bill auction winding up in the next 5 minutes. QQQQ is resting heavily on the 72 SMA at 37.00, and we might get a resolution one way or the other with the release of those results.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 12:53:48 PM

Geoglobal Resources (AMEX:GGR) $6.90 +102.35% ... off session highs of $9.35. Company announced natural gas discovery Link off the east coast of India.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 12:44:24 PM

PETsMart (PETM) $30.40 +1.53% ... bounces for second-straight session. Late last night, company's board OK'd stock repurchase program allowing company to purchase up to $270 million of its common stock. Company also said that at June 25 annual shareholder's meeting, shareholders approved an increase of the company's authorized number of shares of common stock from 250 million to 625 million shares.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 12:42:20 PM

On a 30-minute chart, the OEX's pattern today looks like a "p" accumulation pattern, a bullish pattern. Yet the fact that it's forming beneath daily Keltner resistance and the 38.2% retracement of the steep decline do question the assumption that this is a bullish pattern. On a 15-minute chart, the OEX faces Keltner resistance near that 38.2% retracement at 564.51 and there may be a slight hint of a softening of the support.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 12:42:12 PM

QQQQ has declined to the 72 SMA here, testing it for the first tim today. The 30 min cycle upphase has now stalled, the 60 min still rising. A break below 72 SMA will shift the intraday bias to the downside, and the 10 cent drop has aborted the short cycle upphase. Volume overall is low, and the picture is sloppy, but it's looking less bullish that it was an hour ago.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 12:36:15 PM

DJUSHB trying to maintain prices above 1000, at 1001.62 as I type, but with 15-minute candle action looking somewhat iffy.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 12:33:53 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 12:33:57 PM

The SOX has been forming an inverse H&S at the bottom of its steep decline, shoulders at about 422.40, head at yesterday's low, neckline at about 425.30. Compared to some other indices, the SOX's climb off yesterday's low looks a bit more bear flag-ish and has not even nearly approached the 38.2% retracement of the steep decline. A confirmation and reaching of the upside target of the inverse H&S would bring the SOX up to test that 38.2% retracement, near 430, but the SOX's price action lags that of some other indices on the Fib basis and on a Keltner basis. The SOX should probably be watched, because it's certainly not playing a leadership role to the upside. Short-term bulls don't want to see it pull back low enough to invalidate that inverse H&S, with the Keltner charts showing some ambiguity as to whether that could occur.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 12:32:43 PM

August Crude Oil (cl05q) $59.45 -1.71% (30-minute delayed) ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $56.93, $58.36, Piv = $59.23, $60.66, $61.53. (see also 11:41:09)

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 12:26:54 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... LUV session high so far $13.99. Finding mid-session support at WEEKLY Pivot of $13.96.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 12:25:40 PM

The RLX is pushing above the mid-channel Keltner resistance, but isn't really breaking free just yet. Former resistance is trying to mass beneath the RLX, converting to support, but the RLX needs to maintain 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 442.53, as the move above that resistance looks tentative so far. The RLX is at 443.28 as I type, right at the 38.2% retracement of the steep decline.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 12:19:15 PM

The BIX is already challenging the mid-channel resistanceon its 15-minute chart, so it may give us a heads-up as to how the OEX will react with respect to that resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 12:17:57 PM

QQQQ's bounces are coming from higher lows here, testing 37.10 as I type in a possible rising triangle/ right reverse h&s. For either bullish setup to be valid, however, we'll need to see a surge of volume on the break if it occurs. A light volume drift through resistance would most likely be a false move: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 12:14:35 PM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 159.82 +1.33% ... continues higher. Legg Mason (LM) $104.24 +4.25% ... builds on Friday's gains.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 12:11:43 PM

I'm just returning to see that the OEX hasn't moved much since I left, still consolidating. I had mentioned that gains might prove more difficult as the OEX moved into that band of Keltner resistance on the daily chart and up to test the 38.2% retracement of the last steep decline. Support is trying to firm from 561.68-562.35 on 15-minute closes, but resistance also tries to firm from 563.83-564.50, near that 38.2% retracement at about 564.51. A 15-minute close above those levels might suggest a bump up to test the 50% retracement level at 556.41, although it's a bit premature to consider that since the OEX has not moved above that resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 12:13:25 PM

The Phlx Housing Sector Index (HGX) is making new highs along with the ten year note yield. Strange bedfellows, those.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 12:08:57 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 12:04:05 PM

Session low for ten year notes, ZNU5 down 1/2 at 113 3/8 with TNX up 7.3 bps at 3.975%, a 1.83% increase today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 12:02:17 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 11:52:07 AM

Volume breadth has steadied, still strong on both exchanges with advancing volume leading 3.41:1 on the NYSE and 3.82:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ's short cycle downphase was so weak that it was almost positive, with price currently edging back from a retest of the possible reverse h&s neckline at 37.10: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 11:51:53 AM

Hanover Compressor (HC) $11.70 +0.25% ... edges back green.

Tab Gilles : 6/28/2005 11:44:35 AM

SPY Histogram bullish/bearish divergences. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 11:41:09 AM

August Crude Oil (cl05q) $59.40 -1.88% (30-minute delayed) ... updated daily interval bar chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 11:27:33 AM

QQQQ is bouncing from above yesterday's support at 36.91, possibly shoulder resistance under a reverse h&s neckline around 37.10-.12. If so, then a higher high today on volume could suggest an implied target as high as 37.50. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 11:32:22 AM

Bullish swing trade long setup alert .. for 300 shares of Southwest Airlines (LUV) $13.99 +1.59% should they trade $14.01. Use previously bought puts (4) as protection near-term. I'm bearish the airlines as long as oil stays above $50.00.

Tab Gilles : 6/28/2005 11:27:08 AM

After the close last night the $NASI- Nasdaq Summation Index that I track gave a SELL signal on the weekly chart. Just last Friday on the 12:03 PM post I alerted the daily $NASI gave a sell signal and that taking some money off the table.

Weekly $NASI Link

Daily $NASI Link

$NYSI charts Link Link

$SPX 3 year inverse H&S patterns Link

Now... since the weekly $NASI and $NYSI has given the SELL signal what does one do? Hey the market is up today why sell? I agree, just look at Oct/Nov '04 & Feb/March '05. Got whipsawed there, but if one is going to trade on this chart... ( I also use the $VXN/$VIX and $BP charts. Along with Compw/SPX ma's, MACD, RSI, Fib technicals).... you have to stay disciplined. I would say take a partial SELL position on the $COMPQ and $SPX here. With oil flirting around $60 and the EIA report tomorrow, If we are close to the end of this uptrend in crude oil, and the coming tumble in crude will provide the catalyst for a strong upside move in the the markets. There could very well be a reversal on the Summation Index in the coming days signaling a BUY, but for now it is sell. Link Link

Murphy Oil (MUR) My price objective of $55 is providing resistance and the trailing stop using the 10-ema is moving up each day. Again the stop is set on a the daily close. Link

Follow-up to yesterday's 1:02PM post on Gold.. $GOX Stop on $GOX 80 Link

Stop on Placer Dome (PDG) $14.78. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 11:13:09 AM

August crude oil is down .25 at 60.30, off a high of 60.50, low of 60.20.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 11:09:06 AM

Gold and silver are not participating in today's bullish festivities, August gold down 4 at 437.70 and silver -.11 at 7.134. HUI is off 1.16% at 194.17, XAU -.62% at 91.09. The move in gold reverses nerly all of last week's gains, and has the toppy daily cycle indicators stalled and on the verge of a new daily cycle downphase. A failure to bounce back to the 439-440 level from here will likely see daily cycle sell signals during the next 2-3 days. Below 437, next confluence is at 432-433.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 11:08:31 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 11:01:34 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 10:59:11 AM

Session low for 10 year notes, ZNU5 -13/32 at 113 17/32, with TNX up 5.5 bps at 3.957%.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 10:48:16 AM

QQQQ and the SOX both failed from a lower high, and both are on short cycle bearish kisses here. A break below 423.25 for the SOX should coincide with 36.98 QQQQ, the bottom of short cycle channel support and below which short cycle downphases will start on both symbols. A higher low will confirm the longer intraday cycle upphases still in progress, while a break below 422 SOX / 36.85 QQQQ will stall them.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 10:36:10 AM

The OEX is printing candles that look like an advance block bearish reversal signal in the making, on the 15-minute chart: three white candles, each with a higher close than the previous one, but with the second and third candles showing upper shadows and smaller bodies. One difference from the classic formation, however, is that in the classic formation, each successive candle opens within the body of the previous one. That didn't happen, and perhaps it's a telling difference, because the OEX climbs now, just after the completion of that three-candle formation. However, whether it was a reversal signal or not, note that the 15-minute candles do show some signs of waning short-term strength as the OEX approaches 563.78-564.70 mid-channel Keltner resistance and also moves into the band of mid-channel resistance on the daily chart. The 38.2% retracement of the last steep decline for the OEX is at 564.51, near the top of that daily Keltner resistance with the 50% retracement at 566.41.

I'm going to have to step away for an hour or so. Don't see signs of a rollover yet and I wouldn't necessarily expect it today, anyway, but watch those Fib levels while I'm gone.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 10:41:32 AM

Energy Bill passes in Senate. Items detail the doubling of use for corn-blended ethanol by 2012, shores up electricity grid and offers $16 billion in tax breaks and incentives to boost domestic production. Still some work to be done as Senate bill must be reconciled with an $8 billion energy package passed by the House in April before a final bill is presented to President Bush.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 10:34:39 AM

The 30 and 60 min cycle indicators are in sync to the upside, and roughly halfway through their usual range. The short cycles indicators are starting to curl over in overbought territory, however. Above 37.14, we should see them begin a bullish trending move- overwise, a corrective short cycle downphase is due within the next half hour. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 10:32:48 AM

DRDGold Limited (DROOY) $0.92 -8% ... I have seen this stock mentioned in MM in month's past. Some news regarding class action lawsuit on behalf of shareholders that some may want to know about. Story at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 10:29:02 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 10:26:52 AM

Volume breadth has strengthened to an impressive 5.2 advancing Nasdaq shares for each declining. The ratio is 3.1:1 on the NYSE.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 10:23:48 AM

The TRAN bounced from the 3400 level this morning and now faces Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart at 3458.66, with next resistance above that at 3506.97. There's been nothing bear flag-like about this climb this morning, but the TRAN will soon be facing some Fib levels snapped off the last steep decline off the 6/17 high. The 38.2% retracement of the steep decline is at about 3467 and the 50% retracement is at about 3494.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 10:22:19 AM

OEB-GP $0.30 x $0.35 with OEX 562.90 +0.61% (call selling has some benefits!)

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 10:21:10 AM

VIX.X 11.96 -4.47% ... plunging

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 10:15:12 AM

QQQQ is now hanging at yesterday's high as the short cycle indicators enter overbought territory. 30 min channel resistance is up to 37.11, while the 72 SMA is up to 36.84, below which the 30 min cycle upphase will stall.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 10:12:20 AM

OEX still rising toward 563.76-564.76 next 15-minute Keltner resistance, although a possibility exists that it might need to pull back toward 561.46-561.91 support to regroup first.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 10:10:27 AM

Here's a look at the OEX's daily Keltner chart, with annotations: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 10:10:14 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 10:09:31 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 10:05:47 AM

The Fed announces a 6.75B overnight repo to replace the expiring 6.5B, for a 250M net add for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 10:03:38 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 10:04:03 AM

OEX now moving toward 563.73-564.76 Keltner resistance. This is mid-channel resistance on the 15-minute chart. The daily chart suggests that the OEX is moving into a band of Keltner resistance on that chart, though, and so it might be possible that gains might slow now.

By the way, although traditional analysis was suggesting the possibility of a pullback into an inverse H&S on the 30- and 60-minute charts, Keltner evidence wasn't suggesting that such a pullback would occur, and it didn't, at least not yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 10:01:53 AM

No reprieve for 10-year bonds, at session lows with TNX now up 4.2 bps at 3.944%. QQQQ has just exceeded yesterday's high.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 10:00:52 AM

Headlines:

U.S. JUNE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 105.8 VS. 103.1 MAY

U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT 3-YEAR HIGH

U.S. JUNE PRESENT SITUATION INDEX 120.7 VS. 117.8 MAY

U.S. JUNE EXPECTATIONS INDEX 95.8 VS. 93.4

U.S. JUNE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE EXCEEDS 104.1 EXPECTATION

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 9:59:17 AM

The Fed has a 6.5B overnight repo expiring this AM- awaiting the announcement any minute. Consumer confidence is due as well.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 9:58:51 AM

OEX testing/slightly above the lower descending trendline of its broadening formation, still well below the 565.26 level of the 100-sma that proved so important in trading behavior since early May.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 9:57:49 AM

VIX.X 12.06 -3.67%

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 9:57:36 AM

OEX 562.25 +0.49% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 9:57:16 AM

Naked call close out alert go to $0.35 on the OEB-GP

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 9:56:48 AM

The SOX punched above the 200-week sma today, and now has eased a little, sitting right at that 424.08 average as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 9:56:10 AM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $6.16 +2.83% ... breaking free of the $6.00 level after the company signed a multi-year agreement to create Asian-language channels, starting with a Korean channel and continuing later with a Chinese channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 9:55:10 AM

QQQQ's current session high is 37.05, 1 penny below yesterday's high. The 30 min keltner band was violated on the spike, which should mark the beginning of stronger resistance.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 9:54:17 AM

Daily Keltner resistance on the OEX from 562.76-565.21. There's a chance the OEX is settling into an equilibrium position on this chart. If that's the case, their resistance might not mean much. Actually, though, the usual pattern is for the OEX to spend several days or even weeks testing these averages, sometimes oscillating on either side of them, before traders decide on ultimate direction. If we're to get that kind of choppy consolidation again, I hope it's days and not weeks. I'd prefer minutes and not hours.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 9:53:30 AM

SeeBeyond Technology (SBYN) $4.31 +31.4% ... this morning's #1 most active after Sun Microsystems (SUNW) $3.68 -0.27% said it agreed to buy the software maker for $387 million in cash, or $4.25 per share.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 9:49:41 AM

QQQQ is pennies away from breaking yesterday's 37.06 high. The short cycle indicators have flipped back to positive after the opening dip. Updated intraday chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 9:50:08 AM

The Dow will be rising toward a retest of its 200-sma and -ema from below, not rising from those averages as some other indices are doing, including the OEX. As I noted on many indices yesterday, once they got past nearby Keltner resistance, as they've been doing this morning, resistance then thinned, and they might rise from one level and then perhaps to the next. The Dow looks as if it might rise now toward 10,382 from the Keltner outlook, a long as it maintains 15-minute closes above 10,331.66. Above that is resistance at 10,421.27. These Keltner numbers roughly correspond to other types of resistance. Of course, the 10:00 numbers could change the outlook, so be careful ahead of those numbers.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 9:44:15 AM

The possibility for an inverse H&S exists on the OEX's 30 and 60-minute charts. If so, the OEX might soon pull back into a right-shoulder formation, with that right should level somewhere around 559.60 or the 200-ema. I'm not seeing a lot of Keltner evidence that will happen, although the OEX does test another level of Keltner resistance, at 561.38 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 9:44:00 AM

Swing trade naked call close out alert for the five (5) S&P 100 OEX Jul 580 Calls (OEB-GP) at $0.30. OEX 561.57 +0.37% here.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 9:40:19 AM

The OEX is at the 50-sma. The bottom trendline of the former broadening formation is next strong resistance, at about 561.90 this morning, although that's an approximate value.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 9:38:58 AM

QQQQ is edging lower into the gap, currently at 36.90, but volumne breadth is positive 2.72:1 on the NYSE and 2.8:1 on the Nasdaq, the TRIN and TRINQ and in neutral bullish territory.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2005 9:37:41 AM

I'm having some trouble getting my charting system up and running.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 9:36:50 AM

RLX trying its best to begin on a morning-star reversal signal after yesterday's doji and Friday's long red candle.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 9:35:53 AM

Big jump on the BIX, up toward the 200-sma at 364.11, with the BIX currently at 363.11.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 9:32:39 AM

A rise on the OEX, toward daily mid-channel resistance, but we won't know for a while if it's truly broken free of the 560.09 15-minute Keltner resistance, unless the OEX builds quickly on this early climb.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 9:15:45 AM

QQQQ's bounce has repaired all the damage since noon yesterday, and has turned the trending 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators up in decisive upphases. This sets the stage for the most-likely corrective intraday cycle upphases discussed in last night's Market Wrap. Of course, the market never makes it easy, and here the problem is the short cycle, which appears to have topped and is printing preliminary sell signals. If it catches any traction, then the stage will be set for a pop n drop. My guess is that we will see more rangebound chop at or near current levels this morning. A move above 37.06-.10 or below 36.80 would be a range break and will suggest a directional move.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 8:52:58 AM

Monday, the OEX consolidated after several days of losses, producing a near doji with the small real body forming between the 200-sma and the 200-ema. The doji epitomizes the balance between bulls and bears as the OEX balances between those key averages. This near doji forms below the broadening formation. Market participants would like to see a move up to retest that broadening formation to see whether that former support is now resistance, and the level of futures suggests that such a move might occur. Bears of course want any rise to be of the bear flag type, but would settle for a sharp rise that's quickly stopped at first resistance, with such a pause fitting with a possible scenario of markets pausing ahead of the 10:00 economic number. That broadening formation's former supporting trendline is now at about 562.

The daily Keltner chart shows resistance at 562.79-566.29, a broad range, but those hoping for new bearish entries would like to see a push up toward 561.50-562.75 and then a rollover from there. Bears should stand aside, however, if the OEX zooms past many resistance levels and does so with strong white candles. The formation of a bear flag on the daily chart could occupy several trading days, perhaps into the FOMC decision, before we know whether prices will roll over or continue higher.

The daily chart also shows a possibility of an OEX drop straight down to 566 and then to 551 if that support fails, although futures suggest that such a drop is the low-odds early development this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 8:45:48 AM

Ten year notes are holding their losses, TNX gapping above yesterday's range and testing Friday's high to 3.95%, currently +3.5 bps at 3.937%. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/28/2005 8:03:48 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1199, NQ 1512, YM 10351 and QQQQ +.20 at 37.00. Gold is down 2.6 at 439.10, silver -.057 at 7.187, ten year notes down 15/64 at 113 25/64 and crude oil is down .25 at 60.30.

We await the 10AM release of Consumer Confidence for June, est. 104.1.

Linda Piazza : 6/28/2005 7:09:58 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei posted an almost 100-point gain last night, but other Asian markets were mixed. European markets gain this morning, although drifting sideways down off their early morning highs. Our futures are positive. As of 6:38 EST, gold was down $2.40, and crude, down $0.55 to $59.99. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Last night, figures revealed that Japan's retail sales rose to an annualized 2.7% year-over-year gain in May. Month over month, retail sales dropped a seasonally adjusted 1.5%. The year-over-year figure produced a bigger-than-expected gain. The Nikkei opened near the flat-line area, spent some time consolidating, and then zoomed up before the close of the morning session and kept climbing during the afternoon session. The Nikkei closed higher by 99.55 points or 0.87%, at 11,513.83. A Chinese economic release led to an expectation that the oversupply of steel would decrease and that prices might not continue declining. Japanese steel manufacturers saw their stock prices rise, climbing along with copper-related issues. Some exporters dropped, however.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.22%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.37%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.41%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.79%. China's government released figures showing that the percentage gain in the country's May steel exports declined from previous percentage gains. Wuhan Iron and Steel, billed as the country's largest publicly traded steelmaker by market value by Bloomberg, led declines in China. The Shanghai Composite dropped 1.43%. When the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission gave a press conference yesterday, he failed to provide enough reassurances that the government's planned sale of two batches of government-owned stocks would not impact liquidity, although he said that the government did not see a need for a third batch.

European markets climb this morning. Oil majors were climbing in earliest trading, leading some indices higher. Generally higher crude prices have helped, of course, but Shell Trading and Transport also will soon hold a shareholder meeting at which it will ask for approval to merge two arms of Royal Dutch Shell. Deal making engendered some enthusiasm, too. Dutch telecom KPN revealed plans to buy Dutch mobile operator Telfort, with KPN posting strong gains in earliest trading. France's Thomson SA also rose after revealing an agreement to sell its TV tubes business in three countries to Videocon, in turn taking a 14% stake in Videocon Industries and Videocon International. In other stock-specific news, IT services group Computacenter plunged after warning. The low representation of tech-related stocks on the FTSE 100 probably means that it won't see much impact from this warning although it could weigh on general market sentiment.

On the economic front, Italy's June business confidence fell to 84.2 from May's revised-higher 84.3. The index is now valued at its lowest level in almost four years. Some expect this number to continue to drop over the next few months. France's June business confidence rose to 99. The dip in crude prices that had occurred earlier in the month probably helped this index post its first gain in eight months, some think, as did currency moves. Since crude prices have risen again, some expect the index to dip again in July. Germany's July GFK consumer confidence disappointed, falling to 3.5 from a revised lower 4.3 for June. Looking beneath the headline number showed that the improvement in the June Ifo and ZEW indices may have been short-term improvements due to now-reversed moves in crude and currencies.

As of 6:54 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 26.00 points or 0.52%, to 5,069.50. The CAC 40 had climbed 14.52 points or 0.35%, to 4,172.20. The DAX had risen 15.18 points or 0.34%, to 4,539.00. All are drifting sideways down off their early morning highs, however.

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