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Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 10:24:00 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 6/29/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 4:40:04 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 4:33:33 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 4:04:03 PM

OEX July $580 Calls (OEB-GP) trades 10 contracts at $0.25 on the close. OEX 563.80 -0.03%.

Tab Gilles : 6/29/2005 3:52:30 PM

CBOE GOLD Index ($GOX) Came close to 80 stop level. Nice move up today. Link

Weekly chart. Link

Placer Dome (PDG) Link

Murphy Oil (MUR) Stop set at daily close on 10-ema. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 3:48:53 PM

QQQQ is rising on light volume toward declining 72 SMA resistance at 37.10, with a small bullish divergence in the short cycle wavelet oscillator (middle oscillator pane). Above 37.10, the 30 min downphase will stall again, while the 60 min cycle works its way lower. This action feels even more corrective than yesterday's light volume bounce. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 3:42:56 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $25.12 +0.19% .. "Bad tick" to $25.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 3:41:09 PM

Tomorrow will be a heavier day for economic data, with Initial claims, est. 325K, Personal Income and Personal Spending, est. .3% and .1% respectively, all at 8:30AM. At 10AM, it's the Chicago PMI, est. 54, and the Help Wanted Index, est. 40. The FOMC announcement is scheduled for 2:15PM.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 3:39:05 PM

Puradyn Filter (AMEX:PFT) $0.74 -3.89% ... DJ - Seeks to delist from AMEX.

This would be a change from 06/06 comments Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 3:34:51 PM

30-year Treasury yield ($TYX.X) rose 2.5 bp to close out with a 4.265% yield.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 3:33:19 PM

Canada ... to auction off C$1.3 billion of 5.0% 2037 bonds on July 6. Will use some of the proceeds to repurchase up to C$500m of bonds on July 6.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 3:25:44 PM

The 30 and 60 min cycles are drifting lower, a pathetic decline of less than 30 cents off the high considering that this entire day has lined up with synchronous 30 and 60 min cycle downphases. It looks like the markets will continue to wait on the Fed.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 3:27:08 PM

Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $48.66 -0.57% Link ... cut to "hold" from "buy" at Sandler O'Neill. Note: Stock traded $50.00 even this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 3:21:23 PM

S&P 100 (OEX.X) 563.96 (unch) ... Linda doesn't know what she's missing!

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 3:20:33 PM

QQQQ $37.08 -0.18% ... feels like an option expiration doesn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 3:19:16 PM

Walgreen (WAG) $46.49 -1.69% ... Pharmacist Union rejects proposal over concerns of staffing levels and working conditions that "could compromise patient safety" at the company's 400 Chicago area stores. Members of the National Pharmacists Association, authorize a walkout on June 12, but firm strike date has not yet been set.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 3:12:01 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 3:07:47 PM

QQQQ bounces from a double bottom at the session lows, still holding near the declining 72 SMA at 37.11 as the intraday cycles chop along in a sideways upphase. Volume remains light, with volume breadth now negative 1.07:1 on the NYSE and positive 1.15:1 on the Nasdaq. Updated intraday chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 3:02:48 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 2:58:30 PM

Sell Program Premium .... SPX 1,198.70, DIA $103.59, QQQQ $37.00

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 2:55:46 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,199.86, DIA $103.73, QQQQ $37.06.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 2:55:07 PM

Avitar (AMEX:AVR) $0.06 -14.28% ... jumps to #3 most active.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 2:53:02 PM

QQQQ Option Chain found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 2:46:23 PM

Seizure of assets ... President Bush orders U.S. Govt. to sieze assets of foreign companies linked to weapons of mass destruction and bars Americans from doing business with these companies. Companies are in Iran (Aerospace Industries Organization, Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Shahid Bakeri Industrial Group, and Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group. ), North Korea (Korea Mining Development Trading Corp., Korea Ryonbong General Corp., and Tanchon Commercial Bank. ) and Syria (Scientific Studies and Research Center)

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 2:37:36 PM

QQQQ is printing above 72 SMA resistance at 37.12 on the bounce here, with preliminary short cycle buy signals printing early. A break above 37.17 should be enough to confirm a new short cycle upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 2:38:11 PM

Unocal board recommends shareholders approve Chevron deal. (alert) Sets Aug. 10 as special shareholders meeting for merger vote.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 2:34:21 PM

Little buy program here ... QQQQ $37.12 -0.08%

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 2:29:33 PM

CBOE and CFE Trading Schedule for Independence Day Holiday at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 2:28:41 PM

Ten year note yields are showing a bullish engulfing doji hammer today, banging its head on 4.0% resistance. The daily cycle downphase will be in trouble if that level breaks on a closing basis, above which 4.05-4.06% is the next confluence resistance: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 2:10:25 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 2:04:23 PM

Session low for 10-year bonds here, ZNU5 down 19/64 at 113 9/64, with TNX up 2.3 bps at 3.999%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 2:03:16 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 1:59:19 PM

QQQQ is testing 60 min channel support here and ticking below 37.00, with the QQV going positive, +.04 at 14.05. Advancing volume is down to a 1.13:1 lead on the Nasdaq, 1.03:1 on the NYSE.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 1:51:29 PM

Qualcomm (QCOM) $33.50 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 1:50:31 PM

QQQQ ... $37.04 -0.29% VXN.X 11.58 (unch) TRIN 1.12

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 1:50:25 PM

The SOX is back below 422, returning to daily S1 just below the declining 60 min channel bottom at 421.25.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 1:48:10 PM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,381 -0.23% ... lows of the session here. DIs -1.27%, HD -1.27%, MMM -1.23%, XOM -1.18%, BA -1.10%, UTX -1.07% .... AIG +5.31%, HPQ +1.56%, SBC +1.22% are percentage movers.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 1:43:51 PM

QQQQ testing 37.07 herem the short cycles rolling over on a small pickup in volume. Volume breadth is down to 1.22:1 on the NYSE and 1.35:1 on the Nasdaq in favor of advancing shares. Below daily S1, the session low at 37.01 is again in play. As the price holds below the 72 SMA, the 30 and 60 min channel bottoms will begin to decline from their current levels. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 1:41:14 PM

Qualcomm (QCOM) $33.45 -0.14% ... lows of the week here and matching Monday's early morning low of $34.43. Volume spike of 247K last 5-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 1:26:11 PM

EMC Corp. (EMC) ... here's my bar chart with conventional (blue) and bullishly fit 38.2% (pink) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 1:23:46 PM

EMC Corp. (EMC) $13.87 +2.22% ... look to see if some volume comes in here.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2005 1:18:29 PM

Dateline WSJ Federal Reserve policy makers convened in Washington to continue their risky search for neutrality, with the U.S. economy hanging in the balance.

At the end of a two-day policy meeting tomorrow, central bankers will almost certainly raise their target for the federal funds rate, a key overnight bank lending rate, from to 3.25% from 3%, part of a promised quest to bring it up to what they call a "neutral" level. What is "neutral?" Your guess is as good as Alan Greenspan's, who has only said, cryptically, that we'll know it when we see it.

Typically, central bankers raise rates to throw cold water on the economy and douse inflation. Economic bulls think this is necessary today. U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 3.8% annualized rate in the first quarter, much higher than first estimated and probably higher than the economy's trend growth rate. Former Fed governor Lyle Gramley says GDP may underestimate the economy's gusto, noting that national income has lately grown faster than GDP. Since the Fed seems to share his optimism, he thinks the fed funds rate will be 4% by the end of 2005 and 5% by the end of 2006 -- far higher than the bond market expects. "The market is sometimes wrong," Mr. Gramley said.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 1:18:26 PM

QQQQ is holding at unchanged, just below the daily pivot and just above 72 SMA support. Volume is light and price action weak following the high volume decline from last Thursday, but the lack of price traction on the synchronous 30 and 60 min cycle downphases is potentially bullish. This should be prime time for intraday bears, and the stability within yesterday afternoon's range will represent a fumble if they can't drive the price lower. Current confluence support is at 37.08, followed by the 60 min channel bottom, still at 37.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 1:15:05 PM

August Crude Oil (cl05q) $57.50 -1.20% (30-minute delayed) ... intra-day double bottom of $56.90 with WEEKLY S2 serving up support at $56.93.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 1:12:20 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link ... 2 NH on the NASDAQ in the last hour? Bulls had better to better than that in my opinion, as it relates to any shot at WEEKLY Pivot by the close.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 1:05:00 PM

The 20B 2-year t-note auction set a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.23, the high-rate 3.65%. Foreign central banks took 5.42B of the total. The bid-to-cover ratio reflects the second-strongest demand this year after the May auction, which came it at 2.36 bids accepted for each tendered.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 1:02:09 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 1:00:21 PM

GOOG has just broken below 300, with the SOX and QQQQ pulling back to 72 SMA support here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 12:59:49 PM

While I know the FOMC doesn't make its announcement until tomorrow afternoon, I keep thinking TODAY is the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 12:58:51 PM

Awaiting the results of the 2-year t-note auction in a couple of minutes. Ten year yields have entered positive territory, TNX +.5 bps at 3.981%, holding above yesterday's high.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 12:57:24 PM

VXN.X 14.52 -2.15% .... session lows and after the 10:30 AM EIA report, has been below its WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 12:55:57 PM

TRIN 0.97 ... slips back under the 1.00 level and today's DAILY R2. Internals have been strong today and I think bulls have to like what they see from some stability in 5-day NH/NL ratios. Will see if it continues here at 01:00

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 12:45:25 PM

Volume remains positive, as it has all day, with advancing volume leading 1.43:1 on the NYSE and 1.9:1 on the Nasdaq, with the TRIN at the high end of neutral at 1.02, TRINQ neutral-bullish at .62.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 12:33:50 PM

Ten year notes continue to edge lower, ZN going negative and TNX up to a .6 bp loss at 3.97%. The lower low and break of yesterday's high is a bullish engulfing/key reversal, but remains counter to the ongoing daily cycle downphase. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 12:47:45 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert for 1/2 bullish position in the underlying shares of EMC Corp. (EMC) $13.81 +1.84% Link here, stop $12.90 to begin, target $15.75. (see MM notes from 06/03/05 12:29:00 AM EDT) I think a bullish close would be above $13.87.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 12:28:55 PM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $57.94 +5.02% Link ... Insurer and Dow component seeing gains after saying late yesterday that quarterly net income came in at $3.68 billion, or $1.40 per share, which compared favorably to $2.56 billion, or $0.97 per share a year ago. Adjusted net income, which excluded realized capital gains and losses, the effect of an accounting change and a derivatives accounting rule, was $3.19 billion, or $1.21 a share. That was up from $2.66 billion, or $1.01 a share, a year earlier, according to AIG. Consensus was for earnings of $1.18 a share, based on the average estimate of 16 analysts. Revenue was $27.11 billion, up from $23.38 billion a year ago.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 12:24:24 PM

The 30 and 60 min cycle downphases for QQQQ are stalled, getting no traction with price trading both sides of the 72 SMA. Overall volume is again light, and with the Fed announcement still a day away, we might well see it get lighter. The 30 min channel has narrowed to a 20 cent range. Bears need a move below 37, bulls above the broken rising channel support at 37.23.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 12:24:03 PM

10 Most Actives ... ORCL $13.55 +5.53%, SIRI $6.70 +4.19%, QQQQ $37.17 +0.05%, MSFT $25.20 +0.51%, CSCO $19.48 +1.71%, SUNW $3.81 +1.60%, SPY $120.21 +0.04%, AIG $58.01 +5.14%, INTC $26.38 +0.18%, JDSU $1.53 (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 12:18:28 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 12:15:20 PM

Back from the most infuriating half hour of the month, with Quotetracker reinstalled and missing the last 40 minutes' data.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 12:09:36 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 12:01:19 PM

Weekly EIA data ... updated table at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 11:41:42 AM

Fighting with my chart platform and currently without data. Back shortly.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 11:36:55 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 11:21:41 AM

Volume breadth is down to a 1.3:1 lead for advancing NYSE volume, 1.34:1 for the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 11:21:12 AM

QQQQ and e-mini NASDAQ traders ... chart I think is important right now at this Link ... if looking for a trade "signal" into tomorrow's conclusion of FOMC meeting, then this might be the chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 11:19:04 AM

August gold to a new session high at 439, +1.30, with HUI up a whopping 3.48% to 201.2, XAU +3.12% to 93.94. Silver has yet to go green, however, down .054 at 7.046 off a low of 7.008. Crude oil is down .70 at 57.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 11:13:50 AM

QQQQ made a lower high at 37.21 on the bounce, the short cycle indicators turned up but did not cross, and price has dropped back out of the rising channel and is back below 72 SMA resistance. Bulls need to hold the 37.01 low, below which the EIA bounce will have been a headfake within the broader 30 min cycle downphase. Intraday chart updated at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 11:11:07 AM

August crude -.575 here at 57.625. TNX is up to a 1.8 bp loss at 3.958% as ZN bonds drop back toward unchanged, currently +3/32 at 113 17/32.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 11:10:57 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 11:10:10 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 11:03:27 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 10:58:03 AM

Volume breadth never went negative, currently back to a 1.65:1 lead for advancing NYSE volume, 2.07:1 for the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 10:50:06 AM

QQQQ breaks back into the broken rising channel, currently +.03 at 37.18.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 10:49:59 AM

QQQQ Option Chain sorted by most active at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 10:46:54 AM

QQQQ tested the bottom of yesterday's rising channel and 72 SMA resistance on the EIA pop, and is currently bouncing back to retest it from a higher low. The short cycle indicators were a little early for a bottom, but a break back into yesterday's channel should be enough to start a new short cycle upphase. Balanced against this is a wavelet upphase trying to top (middle oscillator pane): Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 10:43:35 AM

VXN.X 14.74 -0.67% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 14.35, 14.63, Piv= 15.07, 15.36, 15.80.

WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... 12.77, 14.06, Piv= 14.77, 16.06, 16.77

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 10:41:22 AM

TRIN 1.11

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 10:40:46 AM

If tech bulls are going to make their move, nows the time .... QQQQ $37.08 -0.18% after post-EIA high of $37.17.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 10:36:00 AM

August crude oil -1.15 to a session low of 57.05.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 10:34:05 AM

QQQQ bounces from 60 min channel support. Bulls need a break above the 72 SMA at 37.16 to stall the young 30 min channel downphase: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 10:32:45 AM

Bullish swing trade close out alert ... closing out the two (2) XOM Oct. $60 Calls at the bid of $2.20. XOM $58.43 -1.11% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 10:32:30 AM

Headlines:

U.S. CRUDE STKS UP 1.1 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

U.S. GASOLINE STKS UP 300,000 BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

U.S. DISTILLATE STKS UP 1.7 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 10:30:32 AM

EIA petroleum report at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 10:30:29 AM

Little buy program here .... QQQQ $37.08 ... back to MONTHLY Pivot/DAILY Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 10:28:51 AM

Initial Public Offering ... Deerfield Triarc (DFR) $15.65 -2.18% ... real estate trust priced 25 million shares at $16.00, below its indicated range of $17-$19.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 10:24:40 AM

Initial Public Offering ... NeuStar (NSR) $25.35 +15.22% (spinoff from Lockheed Martin (LM)) ... priced 27.5 million shares at $22 with Morgan Stanley, CS First Boston and JP Morgan as lead underwriters.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 10:22:09 AM

Initial Public Offering ... Discount Shoe Warehouse (DSW) $24.02 ... opened at $24.00, well above its indicated for price of $19.00 (14.06 million shares priced between $15-$17) with Lehman Bros. as underwriter.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 10:17:10 AM

15 minutes until the EIA inventory data. August crude is down 30 cents at 57.90.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 10:13:11 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 10:10:45 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle channel is starting to roll over on the quick drop, but volume breadth remains positive on both exchanges, 1.51:1 on the NYSE and 1.47:1 on the Nasdaq. The TRINQ is up to a mere .41, QQV down .10 at 13.91.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 10:07:21 AM

VIX.X 11.66 +0.69% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.15, 11.36, Piv= 11.77, 11.98, 12.39.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 10:04:53 AM

August gold is up a dime to a session high of 437.80 here, with HUI +1.85% at 198.02 and XAU +1.79% at 92.73. Crude oil has reopened, currently down .40 at 57.80.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 10:02:49 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 9:59:46 AM

QQQQ breaks 72 SMA support and violates yesterday's rising channel, testing 30 min channel support at daily S1. 60 min support is at 37.0. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 9:56:19 AM

QQQQ's little decline looks like a bull run compared with the SOX, which has sold straight down from its high at 426 resistance to its current 422.56 low.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 9:53:16 AM

The Fed has just replaced the 6.75B expiring overnight repo with a 9B 2-day repo, for a net add of 2.25B today.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 9:48:59 AM

Volume breadth is positive 1.83:1 on the NYSE and 2.79:1 on the Nasdaq, TRIN .89 and TRINQ very low at .38.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 9:50:52 AM

Oracle (ORCL) $13.57 +5.76% Link ... most actively traded early on after the software maker reported Q4 earnings of $1.02 billion, or $0.20 per share (including charges), up from $990 million, or $0.19 per share, in the same period last year. Revenue came in at $3.88 billion, up 26% from the fiscal fourth quarter of 2004.

Excluding charges, ORCL said it would have earned $1.36 billion, or $0.26 per share.

Consensus was for ORCL to earn $0.23 per share

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 9:44:14 AM

QQQQ 72 SMA support is at 37.16, below which the trending 30 min channel upphase will stall.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 9:40:56 AM

Ten year notes are pulling back but still holding a solid gain this AM, with TNX down 3.3 bps at 3.943%, falling back below 3.95% support.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 9:33:36 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.61 and set for program selling at $+3.41.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 9:32:36 AM

QQQQ 3 min chart update (with premarket data removed), price at the top of yesterday's narrow rising channel: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 9:22:06 AM

QQQQ is holding above yesterday's high, with the 30 min cycle trending in overbought as the 60 min cycle upphase approaches the top of its range. The daily cycle is directionless, the downphase that launched at the end of last week currently stalled.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 9:12:40 AM

The oil inventory data is scheduled for release at 10:30. Estimates are for a 1.5M barrel increase in distillates an a 1.5M barrel decline in crude.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 8:34:31 AM

August gold has joined in, session at 437.5, up to a 20 cent loss for the session. August crude is down .5 at 57.70, off a low of 57.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 8:33:15 AM

Session high for ten year bonds as well at 113 33/64, with TNX -1.3 bps to 3.963%.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 8:32:35 AM

Headlines:

U.S. Q1 GDP REVISED TO 3.8% ANNUAL VS. 3.5% PREVIOUS

GDP REVISIONS DUE TO EXPORTS, HOMEBUILDING

U.S. Q1 CORE PCE PRICE INDEX UP 2% ANNUALIZED

U.S. Q1 FINAL SALES INCREASE 3%

U.S. Q1 CONSUMER SPENDING UP 3.6%

U.S. Q1 BUSINESS INVESTMENT UP 4.1%, LEAST IN 2 YEARS

U.S. Q1 RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT UP 11.5%

U.S. Q1 CORPORATE PROFITS UP 15.4% YEAR-ON-YEAR

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 8:32:12 AM

Session highs for equity futures on the news, QQQQ at 37.26 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 8:31:46 AM

GDP revised up to 3.8% vs. 3.7% exp., previous release was 3.5%.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 8:09:32 AM

August crude oil is printing a session low at 57.575, -.625. Session high was 58.375.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 8:00:53 AM

From the Mortgage Bankers Association's website:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (June 29, 2005) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 24. The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume - was 778.4, a decrease of 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 786.8 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.4 percent compared with the previous week but was up 34.2 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

"The ARM share of applications, at 30 percent, is at its lowest level since April of 2004," said Michael Cevarr, MBA's Director of Member Surveys. "At the same time, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to its lowest point since March of 2004."

The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 0.4 percent to 477.4 from 479.4 the previous week whereas the Refinance Index decreased by 1.8 percent to 2529.2 from 2575.0 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which decreased 1.1 percent to 1172.4 from 1184.9 the previous week, and the Government Index, which decreased 1.2 percent to 121.1 from 122.6 the previous week.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/29/2005 7:56:51 AM

Linda is away today, and I know I speak for all of us in sending our prayers and best wishes to her, Emmi and the rest of the family.

Equities are mixed this AM, ES trading -.75 to 1206, NQ +2 to 1519, YM -1 to 10428, and QQQQ +.04 to 37.19. August gold is down 1.20 to 436.50, silver -.03 to 7.07, ten year notes down 1/32 to 113 13/32 and August crude down .45 to 57.75.

Bloomberg reports that Japan's industrial production slowed by 2.3% in May as exports to China and the US slowed, led by autos, digital cameras and personal computers. Lending restrictions to a number of industries including real estate, steel and cement were cited for part of the slowdown, as the Chinese government attempted to cool the economy. China is the world's second biggest importer of Japanese goods after the US.

We await the 8:30 release of the final Q1 GDP, est. 3.7%, and the Chain deflator, est. 3.2%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 3:13:38 AM

3-days ago? Wasn't that when China made it known they were interested in acquiring Unocal? Which came a day after US mentioned something about tariffs? Some very serious "kids" playing this game. You hit me, and I'll hit you back. Push comes to shove.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/29/2005 3:04:12 AM

Yes, have to be fresh for that one. Later, Jeff.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2005 3:03:37 AM

Speaking of "energy," I'm out of it. I'll see you in a few hours!

Marc Eckelberry : 6/29/2005 3:03:20 AM

Not to mention 59.50, ex channel support and 61.8%. But I just can't figure out why we broke above 61.8% very strongly 3 days ago and did not achieve 100%. I think traders got blindsided by the bond forecast. It will be a very intersting day tomorrow, to say the least.

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