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Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 11:20:54 PM

S&P 100 (OEX.X) .... "underperformers" or those stocks showing relative weakness the past 6 months. 49 stocks are underperforming. Table at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 10:18:40 PM

S&P 100 (OEX.X) .... "outperformers" or those stocks showing relative strength the past 6 months. 51 stocks are outperforming, but only 39 of 100 are in positive territory (excluding impact of any applicable dividends). Table at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 6/30/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 9:59:32 PM

S&P 100 (OEX.X) ... 67-100 most heavily weighted components at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 9:54:45 PM

S&P 100 (OEX.X) ... 34-66 most heavily weighted components at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 8:44:35 PM

S&P 100 (OEX.X) ... 33 most heavily weighted components at this Link ... Should today's merger news between BAC and KRB take place, BAC will most likely rise further in weighting.

P/L% is year-to-date and would not include any dividend paid to date, if applicable.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 7:38:08 PM

Last 3 months Pivot Matrix found at this Link ... notable divergence between OEX and SPX and I would have to think this is the "energy" component.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 7:04:45 PM

Balanced Benchmark at end of 2nd quarter 2005 found at this Link ... Will take the 12,160.39 (less the $0.56 from oil) and once again spread equally among the 12 asset classes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 6:45:15 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 5:17:06 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 5:11:57 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link ...Whatever the FOMC said, the stock/bond/commidity markets certainly doesn't appear to have agreed with it. The Treasury bond market action is most notable.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 4:41:50 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 4:01:46 PM





Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 4:00:10 PM

OEX dropping more heavily now toward the potential 555.12 downside target, but that's where it's going to end the day, just below Monday's low, not quite at that downside target. It may have just overrun the potential support of Monday's low, but the 555.12 target remains set. The daily chart suggests a lower target.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 3:55:20 PM

IWO $64.88 here

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 3:54:48 PM

QQQQ 30 min channel support declines to 37.66 as price loses daily S2 support: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 3:54:32 PM

Swing trade put alert buying two (2) of the iShare Russell 2000 Growth IWO Aug $65 Puts (IWO-TM) at $1.65 offer.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 3:53:59 PM

The RUT has a potential continuation-form (you know, the kind we don't trust) inverse H&S at the top of its climb, as seen on the 30- and 60-minute charts. The downturn from the post-decision immediate high is bringing the OEX back into the 640-ish level for the right shoulder. A drop much below 638-639 would question that formation.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 3:50:59 PM

OEX testing double-bottom area.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 3:48:39 PM

Volume breadth hits its worst levels of the day, declining volume leading 2.28:1 on the Nasdaq, TRINQ at 1.54, and 1.78:1 on the NYSE, TRIN 1.77.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 3:47:53 PM

OEX tests a potential double-bottom level. The 60-minute chart suggets that unless the OEX begins closing 60-minute periods above the Keltner line currently at 560.03, it's still vulnerable to 555.22.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 3:45:18 PM




Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 3:44:24 PM

QQQQ bears need to take out the prior low at 36.83 here in order to reignite the decline on the short cycle indicators. The 30 and 60 min cycles remain bearish below the 72 SMA at 37.00.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 3:43:42 PM

The OEX slips closer to Monday's low of 558.39, with the OEX at 559.37. Bulls want to see that low hold, but the 60-minute Keltner chart still shows vulnerability to a downside target of 555.27.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 3:32:42 PM

QQQQ losing rising support off the lows. 30 min channel support is down to 36.75: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 3:32:06 PM

SPY $119.40 -0.37%

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 3:31:32 PM

QQQQ $36.93 -0.37% ...

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 3:31:19 PM

During the just-completed 60-minute period, the OEX set a downside target of 555.41, although the OEX close beneath the Keltner line currently at 560.21 was slight. I'm a littl wary, then of the downside target, but that's what's been set.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 3:31:08 PM

TRIN alert 1.92 +64.10

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 3:27:16 PM

OEX back just above the 200-ema.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 3:26:10 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 3:23:16 PM

OEX above the 200-sma. There's the potential for the close to set a new downside target. If that doesn't happen and the OEX instead bounces, I'd be particularly careful of bullish short-term positions near the 50-sma and bottom of the broadening formation, at about 562.13, and then again as the 100-sma at 565.02 is approached.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 3:21:17 PM

QQQQ regains 72 SMA resistance here on the break above 37.01... and dojis back below it.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 3:17:43 PM

Session high for ZN bonds here at 113 39/64. TNX finished down 4.5 bps at 3.945%. Daily chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 3:14:44 PM

The OEX is flirting with the level needed to create a downside target of 555.34 on the 60-minute Keltner chart, another chart I watch with the OEX. It needs to see a 60-minute close beneath the line currently at 560.24 to set that target, but there's 558.30-558.80 potential downside support, too. On the way up, 558 was sometimes strong resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 3:12:07 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 3:10:35 PM

OEX still testing the 200-sma. It's also facing Keltner resistance (15-minute chart for the OEX) at 560.84-561.42, with next resistance at 562.88. The tentative Keltner-style bullish divergence has not been erased yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 3:10:34 PM

QQQQ update at this Link with price testing the previous lows from below, rising so far on mostly declining volume. Volume breadth has improved to 1.75:1 in favor of declining volume.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 3:02:43 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 2:57:43 PM

The OEX bounced up from the 200-ema and is now retesting the 200-sma. It hit the downside target on the 15-minute chart. The daily Keltner chart says it's still time to sell rallies, but bears don't want to see a candle with a long and strong lower shadow produced today.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 2:56:58 PM

August crude oil closed -.75 at 56.50, off a low of 56, high of 57.775. 50 tick chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 2:53:05 PM

TRIN 1.59 now. DAILY R2

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 2:51:51 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,194.02, DIA $103.06, QQQQ $36.85.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 2:49:12 PM

QQQQQ is finding support at S2, currently back to 36.90. Bulls need to regain broken support at 36.95-.97. Volume breadth remains at its worst levels of the day, and the 30 and 60 min cycles are in downphases. 72 SMA resistance is down to 37.02.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 2:48:38 PM

RUT hit the upper boundary of its 30-minute Keltner charts and rolled down. A 30-minute close beneath the black and red lines on this chart suggest a test of 640 and maybe 636-637: Link Don't you just love Keltner charts? This 30-minute one tends to work well for swing highs and lows for the RUT, as is obvious on an examination of this chart. Of course, the time frame sometimes must be switched when an index or equity becomes more or less volatile.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 2:44:02 PM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 2:43:29 PM

TRIN 1.68 ... nearing WEEKLY R1. QQQQ $36.89 SPY $119.35

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 2:39:58 PM

Here's where the OEX is, with respect to the broadening formation, the important 100-sma's resistance and the possible 200-sma and -ema support. I'm afraid that the OEX could get trapped now between that support and that resistance, but a sustained move below that support could easily see 555-556: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 2:38:32 PM

QQQQ 3 min chart update at this Link , the short cycle indicators rolling over as daily S2 is tested below 30 and 60 min channel support. Volume breadth is negative 1.85:1 on the Nasdaq, the TRINQ 1.54 here, 1.61:1 negative on the NYSE, TRIN 1.72.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 2:37:59 PM

Swing trade short alert ... for Bema Gold (BGO) $2.40 -0.41% here, stop $2.45, target $2.25.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 2:36:32 PM

The OEX's 15-minute channel says 559.30 is the first downside target. It also says that the tentative bullish Keltner-style divergence still exists, so, bears, be careful as the OEX tests the 200-sma and -ema. Bullish divergence does not always prompt a bounce, but just protect profits.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 2:34:54 PM

OEX below the 200-sma, testing the 200-ema.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 2:34:34 PM

5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) still down 2.3 bp at 3.746% ... ?????

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 2:34:25 PM

QQQQ has just taken out the low, testing daily S2 at 36.85, current low 36.87. Monday's low is at 36.70.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 2:31:59 PM

Been interested in seeing how the DSW IPO that Jeff mentioned yesterday would perform, but I'm not sure I've got the right symbol. QCharts keeps telling me it's "Southw Bell 6.875." I'm interested because the day before the IPO, some of DSW Shoes customers were receiving a letter saying that they're among the customers whose credit card, bank identification and/or driver's license information was stolen, with the company having that information since March and only in late June providing that information to customers. How do I know? Because I was one of those to get that letter, and I've spent countless hours since then putting all kinds of al-rts everywhere. So far, it's performing quite well, if I've got the right symbol.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 2:30:50 PM

Session low for ZN futures at 113 5/32, TNX up to a .3 bp loss at 3.987%.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 2:28:17 PM

Watching to see if the OEX produces a 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 561.47. Have to say, though, that as of now, there's tentative Keltner-style bullish divergence on the 15-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 2:26:37 PM

$PREM rose to 5.71

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 2:26:29 PM

Dollar bulls like the language, at least.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 2:25:50 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,197.80, DIA $103.40, QQQQ $37.03

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 2:25:14 PM

OEX approaching the 200-sma at 560.49, with the 200-ema at 559.46. It would not be a good thing to see the OEX fall below and especially close below those averages, as the next support looks to be in the 555 region. The 60-minute chart has been showing a possibility of a 555.50 downside target if the OEX were to close a 60-minute period below the Keltner line currently at 560.51. The OEX actually set up this downside target earlier in the week, but then erased it.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 2:22:58 PM

QQQQ just wiped out the last hour's gains, back to 37.00 on a surge of volume: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 2:22:38 PM

The RUT is testing its upside target on its 30-minute Keltner chart, a boundary that usually contains it. Bulls want to see a breakout, signified by a 30-minute close above that Keltner line, with that boundary at 645.75 as I type, but the RUT pierced it and now falls back. Bulls do not want to see a 30-minute close beneath 642.56-643.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 2:22:30 PM

QQQQ $37.02

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 2:22:22 PM

TRIN ... 1.59 +35.89% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 2:22:20 PM






Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 2:21:46 PM


Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 2:21:19 PM

It's a dinger ... 2.08

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 2:21:05 PM

This one is growing ... 2.68...2.38

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 2:20:27 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,201.12, DIA $103.65, QQQQ $37.15

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 2:19:33 PM

Session high for ten year notes, ZNU5 at 113 39/64, TNX currently down 1.8 bpws at 3.972%. 3.95% has held for the time being. Resistance is at 4.0%.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 2:19:11 PM

The TRAN had bounced from the bottom of its broadening formation ahead of the announcement, but may be reforming that pattern into a sort of two-headed H&S formation. At the right-shoulder level now, but still within the former broadening formation. No breakout.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 2:18:13 PM

QQQQ pulled back from the highs and stabilized. Intraday cycle bears need a break below the 72 SMA at 37.03: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 2:18:02 PM

OEX coming down to test the Keltner line currently at 561.71, but no big movement as yet. No breakout of the equilibrium position that the Keltner channels have settled into.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 2:17:07 PM

$PREM fell to $+3.37

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 2:16:45 PM

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3-1/4 percent.

The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Although energy prices have risen further, the expansion remains firm and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually. Pressures on inflation have stayed elevated, but longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained.

The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 2:16:32 PM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,199.62, DIA $103.53, QQQQ $37.12

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 2:16:05 PM

25 bp rate increase. Text of the statement at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 2:15:45 PM

If there's a bounce on the OEX, watch what happens with respect to the 100-sma, now at 565.03. Keltners suggest that a 15-minute close above the line currently at 564.94 would set an upside target of 568.33, while a 15-minute close below the one currently at 561.78 would set a downside target of 559.71, but be careful of quick reversals. I'm afraid the OEX might be pinned between the 200-sma and -ema's and the 100-sma, but perhaps this will push it out of that range.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 2:11:02 PM

If the OEX were to continue to decline today, it will have erased the morning-star reversal signal just produced yesterday. The OEX is being parked pre-release about a point or two lower than I thought it would be, which makes me wonder about how strong it might be. This is just a musing, though, and really won't matter after the announcement.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 2:08:18 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 2:07:53 PM

Session high for ZN bond futures here, back to 113 1/2 and bouncing from a higher intraday low. Ten year note yields are down 3.9 bps at 3.951%, testing 3.95% support.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 2:02:48 PM

Session low for August gold, -2.20 at 436.60. The US Dollar Index has held above 89 on today's decline from the morning high. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 2:02:12 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 1:59:04 PM

Session low for August crude oil at 56.00 just printed, -1.25. Updated 50-tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 1:58:02 PM

At least temporarily, the OEX finds support at the bottom of the channel that I thought might contain the OEX pre-FOMC decision.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 1:54:38 PM

QQQQ breaks the previous high, racing up to 30 min channel resistance here at 37.13: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 1:45:07 PM

Session low for August crude oil at 56.525.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 1:44:12 PM

Volume breadth has shifted to negative territory on both exchanges, declining volume leading 1.09:1 on the NYSE and 1.3:1 on the Nasdaq with the TRIN up to 1.41 and the TRINQ 1.31.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 1:39:26 PM

The OEX has pushed the Keltner support down to 561.88, and is currently testing that support. This is on the 15-minute Keltner chart, and a breakdown here would set up a downside target that moved through the 200-sma, down to the 200-ema. Not sure how much to trust that target, if set. My bias today was that the OEX might rattle around in a channel with a boundary (now) from 561.88 to 564.98, but might end up somewhere near that 100-sma. The OEX is a little weaker than I thought (pre-FOMC--had no bias for afterwards), but still within that channel as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 1:33:59 PM

SPY 119.767 -0.05% ... breaks to session low. Here's a 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 1:30:24 PM

The SOX has been sitting on top of its 200-ema, currently at 419.38, all week now. The 50-sma, 100-sma and 200-sma are below, at 415.80, 418.23 and 414.35, respectively. On the weekly chart, the SOX's pattern could still be a bull flag pulling back along the 200-week sma, but a serious downdraft would look like a move preparatory to rolling down again through the descending regression channel that the SOX began forming as it moved off its November high. The SOX did break above this channel on an intra-week basis, doing so during several weeks, but weekly small-bodied candles have formed along the top of that descending regression channel for four weeks now.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 1:25:41 PM

QQQQ ... intra-day chart on 5-minute intervals to match TRIN chart. Here I have our WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement. Chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 1:25:30 PM

QQQQ pulled back from the 72 SMA and is bow retesting the rising triangle support line. Volume is as thin as it usually is ahead of an FOMC announcement, however, and this is more akin to premarket trading than a regular session. So far, the short cycle upphase has gone nowhere. Updated chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 1:15:27 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 1:13:34 PM

RUT moving back above the top of its gap. BIX still moving lower, now below the 200-sma. RLX just off the LOD, but trying to bounce after minimally breaking through support. TRAN still inside its broadening formation, nearer the bottom than the top. And it's all still a mess.

Jane Fox : 6/30/2005 1:12:21 PM

Dateline WSJ Time magazine, a unit of Time Warner, agreed to give one of its reporter's notes to a federal grand jury, keeping the reporter out of jail and helping the company avoid potential liability and fines. The reporter, Matthew Cooper, had refused to cooperate with a federal investigation into allegations that a Bush administration official had leaked the name of a CIA operative to reporters. The Supreme Court ruled this week that Mr. Cooper and New York Times reporter Judith Miller had to cooperate with the grand jury. Ms. Miller still faces jail time; unlike Time, the New York Times may not have any notes to turn over.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 1:10:31 PM

QQQQ breaks upper triangle resistance and is now testing 72 SMA resistance at 37.06: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 1:04:16 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 12:59:31 PM

Currently, the OEX is getting pressured by both supporting and resisting Keltner channel lines, so in normal situations, it looks as if it's ready to pop one direction or another. Not sure that it's going to be allowed to move too far pre-FOMC, however.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 12:58:49 PM

TRIN ... intra-day chart with QCharts' DAILY and WEEKLY Pivot Levels at this Link ... Think of this as the "accelerator" (green arrows) or the "break" (red arrows) when we get the FOMC announcement.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 12:54:54 PM

Session low for August gold at 436.70 here, -2.10, and July silver at 6.99. August crude is up .20 at 57.45. Session high was 57.775.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 12:49:00 PM

Volume breadth is still mixed, declining shares leading 1.3:1 on the Nasdaq while advancing shares lead 1.14:1 on the NYSE. The TRIN and TRINQ are both up at 1.2, neutral-bearish territory. Note the drop in volatility on the low range, low volume, with QQV down 4.39% to 13.3.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 12:46:23 PM

The TRAN still has not violated the broadening formation at the top of bounce off Monday's low.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 12:43:39 PM

QQQQ breaks lower rising support here, dipping back below 37.00: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 1:02:02 PM

A trade I do like today, and currently have an open order for in my retirement account, is to buy back some Pacholder High Yield (PHF) 9.45 (unch) at $9.05. On 06/20/05 at 11:27:27 I made comment in MM that I had sold 1/2 of bullish position, and look to put that capital back at work, but want an SEC yield of 10% if I can get it. Note: I don't think we seen anything close to that today, but if we do, I'd want to be a buyer there!

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 12:35:55 PM

With just less than 2 hours before FOMC, major disagreement continues between what the 5-year note is "saying" at 3.727% and what Fed Fund Futures are saying "55% probability that FF go to 3.75%"

Tab Gilles : 6/30/2005 12:32:04 PM

Those interested, T. Boone Pickens will be on CNBC shortly.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 12:31:38 PM

QQQQ Option Chain sorted by most active at this Link ... would give consideration to selling a covered call if we were to see the July $38 Calls trade $0.50.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 12:29:10 PM

My broadband service is giving me problems today, so if I disappear for a while, I'm probably trying to get rebooted on dial-up. Sigh. Why do these things always happen on the worst days?

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 12:28:26 PM

On the 15-minute OEX Keltner chart, there's support at 562.06. Keltner resistance is beginning to look significant, so that it looks as if it's going to be more difficult for the OEX to cycle up toward the 565.33 level that's the top of the channel in which the OEX is rattling around. The resistance isn't firm enough to preclude a test of the resistance, though. However, the channels are in an equilibrium position, throwing some doubt on how strong that resistance might be, and the pre-FOMC positioning also creates its own doubts.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 12:22:42 PM

QQQQ's tracing a possible rising triangle here off the lows with the short cycle indicators on a preliminary bullish cross: Link . I would expect that signal to stall on a break below the lower rising support line.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 12:18:29 PM

US Energy (USEG) $3.63 +2.25% ... just a "blip," most likely on the OPEC President's comments. Here's my USEG chart at this Link and should NOT be a core holding of any investor/trader's account.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 12:12:32 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 12:03:26 PM

RUT holding in this morning's gap. Not moving above it nor below it.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 12:01:58 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 12:01:55 PM

QQQQ put in a higher low on the last dip, and the short cycle indicators are showing a bullish kiss (3rd pane from bottom) A break above 37.07 would kick off a short cycle bullish cross so long as 36.95 doesn't break first: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 11:59:26 AM

Delta Air (DAL) $3.84 -6.11% ... percentage loser among XAL.X components. Also weak is NWAC $4.57 -5.18% and CAL $13.27 -2.92%.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 11:57:34 AM

TRAN still cycling down through its broadening formation, but still hasn't violated it yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 11:56:19 AM

Session high for August crude oil, +.525 at 57.775, testing yesterday's daily pivot at 57.80: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 11:54:11 AM

The EIA breakdown of OPEC oil production by country: Link

Tab Gilles : 6/30/2005 11:52:38 AM

OPEC output. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 11:51:36 AM

OPEC President saying the cartel will suspend talk of raising output unless oil hits $60 again.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 11:50:13 AM

US Energy (USEG) $3.69 +3.94% ... gets some volume here (42K in last 5 minutes)

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 11:46:20 AM

The RUT has come down to retest this morning's gap, without having quite touched the 30-minute upside Keltner target. There was a near approach, but there's tentative Keltner-style bearish divergence on that chart, so I'm not sure whether the RUT will do more than approach or perhaps barely touch that target. If it does more, the bearish divergence is erased. That Keltner resistance is at 645.43. So far, the bottom-of-the-gap support is holding, buoyed up by 30-minute Keltner support at 641.47-642.70. The RUT is at 643.21 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 11:41:42 AM

10 Most Active ... KRB $26.43 +25.43%, SIRI $6.51 -1.06%, ORCL $13.41 -1.17%, QQQQ $37.03 -0.10%, MSFT $25.02 -0.27%, BAC $45.96 -2.02%, JDSU $1.54 +1.31%, SUNW $3.77 -0.52%, SPY $120.01 +0.15%, INTC $26.30 +0.19%

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 11:36:13 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 11:33:21 AM

August crude oil is back in the green, +.15 at 57.40 here. The low was 56.575. 2-day 50 tick chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 11:32:03 AM

Volume is dropping on the bounce from 30 min keltner support, QQQQ breaking back above yesterday's low. Volume breadth is still negative 1.28:1 on the Nasdaq. Updated chart at this Link

Tab Gilles : 6/30/2005 11:30:44 AM

CBOE Gold Index ($GOX) It appears that the breakout is occuring, still maintaining $80 stop. Link Link Placer Dome (PDG) Maintain $14.78 stop. Link Link

Murphy Oil (MUR) Came close yetsreday to the 10-ema close stop, let's see what today brings. Link

$WTIC daily & weekly charts Link Link

Smallcap 600 Growth iShares (IJT) Resistance $110/$111. Link

To Update the $NASI Summation Index, which gave a weekly sell on the Nasdaq. (per 6/28 11:25AM post) Link I took a partial position short the Nasdaq using the Profunds UltraShort OTC (USPIX). Another fund one can use is the Rydex Venture 100 (RYVNX). Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 11:23:25 AM

October Fed Fund futures (ff05v) 96.36 (unch) ... chart at this Link ... 55% chance of 3 more rate hikes at this point.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 11:22:38 AM

OEX potential Keltner support at 562.10, with support beneath that at 559.75, near the 200-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 11:21:57 AM

QQQQ breaking yesterday's lows here. 30 min channel support holds at 36.05, 60 min down to 36.90: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 11:20:18 AM

Ten year notes -2.5 bps at 3.965% as QQQQ retests 37.00 at the session low. Updated daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 11:15:40 AM

One possibiity for the OEX now that the 100-sma was first established as such strong support and now has been broken is that the OEX will rattle around for a number of days or weeks between that average and the presumed support of the 200-sma and -ema's below. On the daily Keltner chart, the OEX still looks vulnerable to 551.33, but the OEX often spends a number of days or weeks testing the mid-channel level (562.82-564.89) once it's tested. We've had the "number of days" now, so I would think that OEX traders could make up their minds any day now whether to push the OEX higher or roll it down below that mid-channel level. I hope that's not just wishful thinking.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 11:12:35 AM

Sell Program Premium was found at approximately 10:57 AM EDT, when SPX fell from the 1,201 level. SPX 1,199.56 here. (I'm having some chart/data feed issues this morning)

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 11:11:34 AM

The TRAN is cycling down, but within its broadening formation on top of its climb off Monday's low. No breakout either direction.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 11:10:15 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 11:07:13 AM

Volume breadth shifts negative 1.05:1 on the NYSE and 1.28:1 on the Nasdaq. August gold made a session high at 440, currently down a dime to a 1.10 gain at 439.90.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 11:04:56 AM

Keltner support for the OEX at 562.13, joining other support near that level.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 11:03:43 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 11:03:22 AM

Yesterday's QQQQ lows now being tested: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 10:59:11 AM

QQQQ testing 72 SMA support, printing below it for the first time today: Link . 30 min channel support is at 36.95.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 10:54:30 AM

Bank of America (BAC) $45.78 -2.40% ... weighs on the S&P Bank Index (BIX.X) 362.75 -0.36%

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 10:56:34 AM

BIX just a little above the 200-sma. OEX just below the 100-sma. I'm here watching every moment, but hesitating to say too much because I think this is just all about positioning pre-FOMC and chart characteristics may have little to do with what's going to happen. Below the current OEX position is the Keltner support, joined by the bottom of the broadening formation, the 50-sma at 562.18, and the 200-sma and -ema's at 560.50 and 559, respectively.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 10:46:48 AM

Volume breadth has deteriorated on both exchanges despite the steady price action, advancing volume now leading 1.2:1 on the NYSE and 1.45:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 10:46:24 AM

GMX Resources (GMXR)

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 10:44:16 AM

Session low for July silver here at 7.001, -.055, with August gold down to unchanged at 438.80, off a high of 439.30. HUI is up 4 cents at 203.14, XAU -.79 at 93.77. August crude is down a .525 loss at 56.725, off a low of 56.575.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 10:36:30 AM

TRAN still broadening its broadening formation a the top of its climb off Monday's low. No breakout yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 10:36:23 AM

The 30 min cycle indicators are holding their weak upphase, and the 60 min cycle downphase from yesterday has now stalled. Volume is up to 12.4M QQQQ shares, very weak as expected. The 37.00-37.25 range should remain choppy- a break of either end of the range should be enough to generate a directional move.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 10:34:20 AM

BIX dropping toward the 200-sma: RLX pulling back slightly in what so far looks like a potential bull flag. Again, any doubt why the OEX doesn't move? Too key related indices head completely opposite directions.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 10:28:37 AM

Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) $4.61 -11% Link ... off its lows of $4.25 after the digital video provider warned that Q2 sales will be between $56-$60 million citing slower orders of digital headend systems in May and June.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 10:28:27 AM

The BIX broke below 365.41 Keltner support on the 15-minute chart, and now heads toward next potential support at 364.52, but this was a sign of some weakness. The 200-sma is waiting below to lend its support, though, at 364.15.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 10:26:52 AM

The short cycle indicators are drifting, still trendlessly, with QQQQ holding on both sides of yesterday's descending resistance line. Link The SOX is looking more bullish, however, putting in a pattern of higher lows this morning. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 10:25:21 AM

World Wrestling Ent. (WWE) $11.60 +11.96% Link ... finds gains and #3 percentage gainer on the big board after the company reported Q4 profits that fell 18% on year-over-year basis. The company said net income came in at $16.1 million, or $0.23 per share, down from $19.7 million, or $0.28 in the year-ago quarter. Revenue in the latest quarter was $118.3 million, a decline of 7% from $126.7 million a year earlier.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 10:20:21 AM

QQQQ $37.11 +0.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 10:19:53 AM

VXN.X 14.08 -2.62% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 14.05, 14.26, Piv= 14.60, 14.81, 15.15.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 10:18:56 AM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner channels are definitely lining up in an equilibrium position, which means that the OEX might rattle around between 562.18 and 565.78, or might even just trade in a straight line. Boy, the powers-that-be have gotten good at maneuvering prices in a straight line lately, haven't they?

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 10:18:53 AM

VIX.X 11.70 -0.59% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.32, 11.50, Piv= 11.62, 11.80, 11.92.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 10:14:14 AM

August crude oil is currently -.175 to 57.075, off a session low of 56.775.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 10:10:13 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 10:09:52 AM

OEX still under that 100-sma at 565.05.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 10:09:15 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 10:08:05 AM

Session high for 10-yr bonds, ZN at 113 1/2, TNX down 3.7 bps to 3.955%.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 10:07:13 AM

BIX at 365.24, with the 200-sma at 364.15. RLX near the HOD, but that HOD is inside the gap from January and at an appropriate right-shoulder level for a possible H&S, so bulls in retailers want to see the RLX push higher and not round over into a right shoulder over the next few days.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 10:05:42 AM

QQQQ printed a low at the 72 SMA at 37.09, currently bouncing back to 37.12. All intraday cycle channels are mixed here, no direction evident for the moment, while volume breadth holds positive, 1.16:1 on the NYSE and 1.9:1 on the Nasdaq. Overall volume is very light, just 8.7M QQQQs traded so far.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 10:05:08 AM

The TRAN bounced hard off Monday's low, but since yesterday, it's been broadening its consolidation on top of the rise, as seen on the 15-minute chart. These broadening formations on top of a rise were (note the past-tense verb) traditionally viewed as bearish formations, but we'll just have to watch this one and see which way it breaks, because broadening formations haven't been reliably bearish for a couple of years.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 10:04:12 AM

Help Wanted Index 37 vs. 40 exp.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 10:02:38 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 9:59:39 AM

BIX headed down through 15-minute Keltner channels toward potential 365.44 support. RLX headed way up. Any doubt why the OEX stalls?

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 9:57:57 AM

Chicago PMI 53.6 vs. 54 exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 9:57:31 AM

Awaiting the Chicago PMI and Help Wanted Index in 3 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 9:53:54 AM

The Fed has just announced a 5.5B 5-day repo, which is all additional money on top of the 3B in 14-day adds, for a net of 8.5B in new liquidity today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 9:53:57 AM

Boeing (BA) $66.55 +7.86% ... breaks to 52-week high on news that 3M's (MMM) James McNerney will become BA's new CEO. Before coming to 3M, Mr. NcNerney was the chief executive of General Electric's (GE) jet-engine unit.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 9:49:51 AM

The RUT gapped above the breakout level on the 15-minute Keltner chart. At yesterday's close, it had set a 30-minute upside target of 645.32, with the 30-minute chart having more relevance for the RUT.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 9:47:38 AM

QQQQ update at this Link holding above yesterday's descending resistance line.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 9:44:50 AM

MBNA Corp. (KRB) $26.47 +25.62 ... Atop this morning's most active list and higher after the bank said it has agreed to be bought by Bank of America (BAC) $46.05 -1.83% for $35 billion. The deal calls for Bank of America to pay 0.5009 of a share and $4.125 in cash for each share of MBNA. Based on Wednesday's close price, that would work out to $27.50 per share.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 9:38:01 AM

Sorry, charts were running slow this morning. The OEX is at mid-channel resistance on its 15-minute Keltner chart, with that resistance looking relatively firm. Continued 15-minute closes beneath a line currently at 564.18 and especially below the one currently at 563.99 make the OEX look vulnerable to 562.09, but that's on a normal day. I'm just not going to trust chart evidence too much today before the FOMC decision. As I said earlier, I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX maneuvered somewhere near that 100-sma at 565.05 near the FOMC announcement. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a push to 570 pre-announcement.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 9:34:18 AM

Volume breadth is positive 1.82:1 on the NYSE and 2.76:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2005 9:33:25 AM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.47 and set for program selling at $+3.38.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 9:21:59 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle has turned up, putting yesterday's pathetic downphase out of its misery. However, the 60 min cycle continues lower, and the short cycle indicators are looking toppy. A move below 37.08 should be enough to stall the young 30 min cycle upphase and confirm a new short cycle downphase. Overall, the cycle picture looks mixed and primed for chop, which is the usual state of affairs on an FOMC announcement day.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 9:00:58 AM

Yesterday, the OEX pierced the 100-sma, the average that provided support on daily closes throughout much of May and June, but closed below it. That average's resistance held. The OEX is back inside the broadening formation, but could not build on Tuesday's morning-star formation. I'm not surprised at yesterday's doji below that key average. Both that average's proven importance and the beginning of the FOMC meeting suggested that the OEX might produce a doji day. It was the right day for indecision. Today, we might get some positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting outcome, but I wouldn't be surprised if that positioning didn't put the OEX somewhere near that 100-sma.

Yesterday, the OEX also tested the 50% retracement off the 6/17 high and then closed back below the 38.2% retracement of the decline off that high. As I said in a post Tuesday evening, as long as the OEX is closing beneath that 100-sma and beneath daily Keltner resistance at 565.27, selling rallies appears to be the appropriate tactic. Of course, how do we know where the OEX will close today after the FOMC announcement? Well, that's a problem, isn't it? Conservative traders should probably stand aside and watch to see where the OEX ends the day.

Barring a strong move early this morning to scramble the Keltner lines, 15-minute Keltner channels are perhaps settling into an equilibrium position. The OEX is below the mid-channel level, looking vulnerable to 562.13, but when the channels are in an equilibrium position, the OEX might rattle around in an increasingly narrow range between 562.13 and 565.82. That would fit with typical pre-FOMC decision behavior, and last night, that would have been the scenario I'd most expect to see enacted today. We'll look at how things set up just before the decision, but, with futures higher this morning, OEX traders should be aware that 15-minute closes above 565.82 might suggest that the OEX will retest the 569-570 zone that also was seen so often while the OEX has been inside the broadening formation. Trade carefully if you're inclined to enter the market ahead of the FOMC decision. While you're watching the OEX, be sure to watch the RUT, too, with that index moving up toward a breakout level. The small-cap RUT stocks have little to do with the big-cap OEX stocks except in what they might be showing about sentiment, of course.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 8:58:28 AM

The Fed has just announced a 12B 14-day repo to replace 9B expiring, for a net add of 3B in that timeframe. There are no other expirations for today, and we await the 10AM announcement to see whether the Fed will be adding more in short term liquidity.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 8:45:41 AM

Gold has ticked positive, QQQQ, ES and NQ futures hitting session highs. The US Dollar Index has edged back, still holding above 89 support, currently down to 89.12. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 8:34:36 AM

Ten year notes have risen, TNX now down .2 bps at 3.97%. 4.0% remains immediate upside resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 8:33:35 AM











Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 8:33:05 AM

Personal income +.2% vs. .3% exp.

Personal Spending flat vs. +.1% exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 8:31:20 AM








Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 8:24:33 AM

The cash bond market opens in the green, TNX down .8 bps at 3.982%.

Jonathan Levinson : 6/30/2005 7:57:06 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1205.75, NQ 1516, YM 10416 and QQQQ +.032 at 37.10. Gold is down .30 to 438.50, silver +.071 to 7.127, ten year notes down 1/64 to 113 1/4, and crude oil is down 57.05.

We await the 8:30 release of Initial Claims, est. 325K, Personal Income and Personal Spending, est. .3% and .1% respectively, then at 10AM, the Chicago PMI and Help Wanted Index, est. 54 and 40 respectively. At 2:15PM, the Federal Reserve will issue its pronouncements on the overnight rate.

Linda Piazza : 6/30/2005 7:21:30 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei clawed its way to a modestly positive close last night, ahead of our FOMC decision and its quarterly tankan business sentiment survey. European markets trade either side of the flat-line level as European and U.K. investors adjust to their own economic releases and look ahead to the FOMC decision here. Our futures are positive. As of 6:54 EST, gold was down $0.90, and crude, down $0.33 to $56.93. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

After spending some time in negative territory in earliest trading Thursday morning, testing the gap left Wednesday morning, the Nikkei pushed higher. After another dip into negative territory, the Nikkei managed to claw itself back into positive territory, closing higher by 6.57 points or 0.06%, at 11,584.01. The firming of the dollar against the yen helped Japanese exporters, but energy-related issues such as Inpex Corp. fell after crude prices declined from this week's high. Car manufacturers gained after news that they had increased domestic production in May due to increased sales. Sony was one exporter that did not participate in gains, however, ending flat after announcing job cuts in the U.K. and a planned closing of a factory there. The main guiding force in Thursday's trading might have been caution ahead of today's FOMC decision and Japan's own Bank of Japan tankan business confidence survey that will be released tonight.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.17%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.91%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.47%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.53%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 2.18%. The Chinese government has announced that it will stop a tax exemption that had helped exporters and producers of specialty steel products. Amid already existing concerns about price cuts, steel manufacturers dropped.

Many European markets trade near the flat-line level ahead of our FOMC decision and during and ahead of their own economic releases. In the U.K., the GFT June consumer confidence index dropped to -3 from the previous -1, with the number far lower than expectations. The component measuring the economic situation for the next year dropped to -10 from the previous -7. Final first-quarter GDP growth was revised slightly lower quarter over quarter, to 0.4% from the previous 0.5%. Year over year, the rate dropped to 2.1% from the preliminary 2.7%. Growth in 2004 was revised slightly higher.

France's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was unchanged for May, in line with expectations. Germany's unemployment rate dropped to 11.3% in June, down from May's 11.6%. In the EU, the June commission survey recorded a rise to 96.3 from May's 96.1. The BCI, the business climate indicator, reversed May's losses. Consumer sentiment did not increase, however. Some feel that June's reading resulted mostly from the weaker euro and weaker crude costs earlier in the month, as well as a rebound from an overly negative May number, with those improvements perhaps not lasting. The Eurostat's flash estimate on June HICP shows a rise just above the acceptable 2% cutoff for inflation, with the number at 2.1%. Some have been calling for the ECB to lower rates, but this number won't encourage the ECB to do so.

In company-specific news, Swiss-Swedish engineering group ABB Ltd. fell after warning and detailing a planned reorganization, with the warning resulting from overcapacity, increasing commodities costs and a change in regional demand. UBS AG announced a reorganization of two wealth management divisions, and was steady in early trading. Novartis has gained the right to market a drug for RSV, a respiratory illness that strikes infants, and the company's stock was trading higher earlier today. Lender Fortis Bank NV will buy Prudential Financial's Dryden Wealth Management unit, with Fortis' stock easing.

As of 6:52 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 14.50 points or 0.28%, at 5,123.60, with sentiment buoyed by a strong showing for IPO PartyGaming. The CAC 40 has lost 0.07 points or 0.00%, a 4,231.81. The DAX has gained 9.06 points or 0.20%, to trade at 4,592.69.

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