Option Investor
Printer friendly version
OI Technical Staff : 7/1/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 5:57:00 PM

All I did in the MM Profiles today was close out 1/2 of the Bema Gold (BGO) $2.39 (unch) short when it traded down to $2.33, while session low of $2.28 missed by initial bearish target of $2.25. I reviewed this sector's internals today (BPPREC) as well as some tie to current bar chart with conventional retracement.(see 3:11:36, 3:32:10, 3:44:12) I also discussed the BULL and BEAR scenario for gold. It is still NOT conclusive that GOLD will trade INVERSE the dollar strength. It could well be that foriegn (to U.S.) are coming back to gold as a hedge for THEIR currencies. One reason I'll trade BGO short, is that I tend to think of it as "speculation grade," not "investment grade" type of stock. We've traded it long and short in the past, but these gold stocks are trading somewhat like the broader averages where here too, multiple fundamental scenarios are giving/finding MIXED TECHNICAL signals. Tab Gilles has also been trading some gold stocks/indices and has provided some excellent analysis.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 5:38:30 PM

I've got some type of "quirk" in my computer that started last week (first with my trade tabulation calculations), then my screen capture software this morning. I'm trying to figure out what is wrong, but will hopefully have all this stuff back up and working next week.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 5:26:20 PM

Educational Day Trader's Technique ...EPIX Pharma (EPIX) ... here's intra-day chart and something you can backtest. A trader buddy of mine has been teaching me the PINK retracement technique, and I like it, as it comes from a Market Maker's perspective. I use it in combination with my "5-mrt" technique. Seems to work best when a stock gaps up, or down by 7% or more, catches market participants by surprise. The PINK retracement (I left it there after I set the trade up for myself) is dynamic while you're trading. You leave the bottom anchored, but should the stock continue to make new highs on the day, you drag the upper part of PINK retracement higher. Here's my intra-day chart. You can use 2-minute intervals, whatever you like. Link ... look at the DAILY Interval bar chart of EPIX Link and you can probably get some feel for a BEAR's sense of urgency to not ask questions and just get some of his/her short covered." (see 12:23:57-12:28:39-12:33:14)

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 5:26:48 PM

Educational Day Trader's Technique ... Good Gravy! I traded long some EPIX from $10.10 to $10.17, then got tied up on the phone and dumped it as I wasn't able to concentrate on phone and 02:00 watch/internals. You just never know for sure .... Link ... time stamp for entry setup is the focus. Terrible exit, but thin traded stocks need a trader's FULL attention. They can go against you as quickly as they can go for you.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 4:05:49 PM

EMC option montage at this Link ... We can see the "speculation" that a CSCO offer for EMC might be in play, but I would think a "sure thing" type of trade would see more action at the PUT level, as in ... if "I know a deal is going to be announced at a specific price, say $15, $16, $17....)" then I (Jeff Bailey) would think we'd see some put SELLING and action on that side.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 3:59:10 PM

And the OEX avoids falling to a new low, below yesterday's.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 3:57:11 PM

Looks as if Jane and I were thinking along the same line.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 3:56:53 PM

Have a great weekend, everyone. I'll still be here until the last few minutes of the day, but wanted to be sure I wished you all a good weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 3:54:43 PM

EMC Corp. (EMC) $14.15 +3.20% ... discussion on CNBC taking place regarding activity in EMC's options and implied volatility rising. Some chatter that CSCO might be an interested buyer. I looked on EMC's option chain earlier this morning and the can't say I saw anything too unusual. Aug. $15 Calls most active at $0.45 (16,109:3,209) and July $14 Calls (EMC-GP) $0.45. Now the Aug. $15 a little unusual, but earlier I was just thinking a trader might be buying $14, and selling $15 for a little "buy, run write some premium."

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 3:51:34 PM

Barring a strong move into the last few minutes of the day, the OEX will end the day nearer yesterday's low than the 200-sma. The day's candle will be a bearish one, but that perhaps doesn't mean as much as it would if the OEX hadn't been consolidating for a few days. It's still not bullish, although the OEX is once again flirting with an attempt to erase that 554-556 downside target. Mixed evidence has abounded for a long, long while, and that encourages both bulls and bears to keep trying.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 3:44:12 PM

Distribution Curve for Dorsey's Precious Metals group at this Link ... Note: I (Jeff Bailey) or OptionInvestor.com receive any remuneration from Dorsey/Wright if you try a free trial, or eventually subscribe to their charting service.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 3:36:30 PM

The RLX just isn't moving much, but it's formation remains consistent with a potential H&S on top of its climb off the late-April low. It hasn't confirmed that formation or invalidated it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 3:32:10 PM

Precious Metals Bullish % (BPPREC) last night's reading was 30% and still "bull alert" Link

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 3:28:49 PM

OEX still testing yesterday's low of 557.76, with the OEX at 558.06 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 3:23:45 PM

OEX trying to find support above yesterday's low. This is just a case in which chart characteristics are not going to tell us much. The OEX looks vulnerable to a decline past yesterday's low, but will it go lower?

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 3:23:10 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 3:17:21 PM

OEX testing yesterday's low. A decline below that low might send it down to test 554-556, but bears should be protective of their profits from the current level on down, and congratulations to those in bearish positions. Do not let a profitable position turn unprofitable, however, and remember that the OEX might have considerable historical support in the 556-ish zone when you're making decisions about hold over the weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 3:14:34 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 3:11:36 PM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) ... here's a bar chart where I've taken a conventional retracement from the May 2004 lows (benchmark with Dorsey's BPREC) and then the November highs. Note today's low. I'll follow with a bullish % chart of various "precious metals" stocks that Dorsey places in a basket and measures buy/sell signals against. Bar chart at this Link ... the reason I like to use the HUI.X is that each stock in it is equally weighted. Just like a bullish %, where each stock's chart gets one vote, and one vote only.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 3:08:07 PM

Well, no sooner did I get my 2:59 post uploaded than the OEX turned lower toward a retest of yesterday's low. The OEX has not yet reset the 30-minute chart's downside target of 556.81, but did minimally set a downside target of 554.53 at the close of the last 60-minute period. It was a minimal close below the appropriate Keltner level, though, and not completely to be trusted.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 3:00:24 PM

Precious Metals Bullis % (BPPREC) from Dorsey/Wright and Associates remains in "bull alert" status at 30%.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 2:59:02 PM

I keep looking for something appropriate to say, but the OEX remains below the 200-sma and -ema and above yesterday's low, below nearby Keltner resistance and above Keltner support.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 2:51:05 PM

A lot of gold stocks have been printing "doji" bars the past couple of weeks, at various days. Charts are full of them.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 2:49:28 PM

Bema Gold (BGO) $2.36 -1.25% ... it too comes back to morning high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 2:47:52 PM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 201.48 -0.03% ... comes back from session low of 196.25. I still have to wonder from the fundamental side of things if Euro-block investors aren't buying the group as a hedge for their currency weakness? There has been talk that the Euro-block was buying oil futures as a hedge. That's the toughest thing about commodities, as all, some, or just a couple can be viewed as "a hedge for what might hurt you."

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 2:47:11 PM

OEX still squeezed between Keltner support and resistance on the 30-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 2:42:55 PM

Hanover Compressor (HC) $11.72 +1.82% ... starting the month out on the right foot anyway.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 2:41:33 PM

Natural Gas Index (XNG.X) 359.85 +2.17% ... new 52-weeker today.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 2:40:32 PM

RUT rising, but testing the 640.40-ish historical resistance. The RUT is at 640.35 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 2:37:01 PM

OEX being squeezed tighter between 30-minute Keltner support and resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 2:36:54 PM

Some chatter today that the dollar's strength comes on thought that China will start letting its currency (yuan) float in a couple of months. I (Jeff Bailey) still think equity traders were rattled last week on talk of U.S. placing a tariff on Chinese imports. I think it would be better for global economics if we saw a GRADUAL currency adjustment. For the most part, markets don't like to see SUDDEN and SHARP adjustments to currencies, or interest rates.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 2:27:13 PM

OEX being pressured lower by a 30-minute Keltner line currently at 559.51. Currently, it's clinging to tentative 30-minute support on a Keltner line currently at 558.76. If it produces 30-minute closes beneath that Keltner line, it's creating a potential downside target of 556.85. Perhaps I should have trusted that test of the 200-sma and -ema's this morning, but it's still not proven that entering a play there would have been particularly profitable, and it just didn't appear to be a high-odds play on a low-volume day.

Jane Fox : 7/1/2005 2:26:45 PM

Actually Jeff the bond pit closed at 1:00 but the electronic bonds closed at 1:30. :)

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 2:19:17 PM

Just a reminder for some .... bond market closed at 01:00 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 2:17:36 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 2:05:26 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 2:02:27 PM

The RLX is one of the indices that's above its 200-sma, but the RLX has a fairly well-formed potential H&S on its daily chart, at the top of its climb off its late-April low. It's chopping around with the appropriate right-shoulder level. The RLX trades more in relevance to the 200-sma than the -ema, and that's at 433.69 with the RLX now at 441.25. The right shoulder of that potential H&S is forming mostly with January's huge gap lower, with the bottom of the gap at 438.78, so that a break below the 200-sma would be further confirmation that the RLX was losing its battle with that gap resistance. The RLX did actually move above the top of the gap for almost two weeks, but it just couldn't sustain levels above it. A move above June's high would confirm that the RLX was besting the gap resistance.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 1:51:37 PM

Today, the BIX has spanned the distance, or almost the distance, between the 200-sma's resistance and the 200-ema's support. It's nearer support now. Market bulls don't want to see the BIX close below the 200-ema and 100-sma today, with those at 359.80 and 359.25, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 1:45:18 PM

Thanks, Jeff, (see Jeff's 1:45 post).

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 1:43:20 PM

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that I wouldn't be surprised to see the Nasdaq rattle around inside the range appropriate for a right shoulder on its inverse H&S for a while longer before deciding on final direction, since the left shoulder took so long to build. The Nasdaq has been doing just that, with an appropriate level roughly between 2025 and 2100. It's near the middle of that range now, and it's somewhat difficult to predict next direction when an index is in such a congestion zone. I've laughingly said over the last month that I was a chopper rather than either a bull or a bear, and I haven't seen anything that radically changes that point of view for the Nasdaq yet, although some other indices show hints (moves below their 200-sma's, etc.) that could be changing, swinging toward a view of possible weakness. Just hints so far, though, because many sustain long-term support. On the OEX, a move down to the 555-556 zone and bounce from there wouldn't be a particularly convincing display of weakness, depending on the calibre of the bounce. Except for April's low, the OEX has been finding support near 555-556 since November of last year.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 1:44:54 PM

Linda (12:51:28) ... I forgot to post the link (01:40:47), but I've done it now.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 1:22:52 PM

OEX still coiling and there's not much else to say. However, the 30-minute chart does show a potential thinning of resistance, depending on what happens with the current test of 559.77 resistance (on 30-minute closes). Above that, next 30-minute resistance is near 561.20-562.04.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 1:14:39 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 1:10:12 PM

Soutwest Air (LUV) $13.79 -1.00% ... per current open MM profiles. With oil back on the rise (defensive into 3-day U.S. holiday?) I'm still going to wait until next week with the long stock/long put hedge.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 1:03:14 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 1:02:25 PM

RUT testing the neckline of that H&S again, but there's 30-minute support within a couple of points of the neckline, and it's the 30-minute chart that's had more relevance for the RUT over the last couple of weeks.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 1:00:48 PM

OEX still coiling, printing tiny 30-minute candles that hug a Keltner line currently at 559.04. The OEX is at 559.17 as I type. There may be a big move in the making today, but there's not needed clarity about which direction it will take or the number of points it might move, so I don't see a good risk for a pre-holiday Friday play. I keep hoping for one. The OEX's daily chart suggests that it's vulnerable to 550.52, and that it's vulnerable as long as it continues printing daily closes below the mid-channel level at 562.71-564.15. The OEX sort of tested the bottom of that range or at least approached it, but shorter-term charts suggest it's still got some rattling around to do before it decides on direction. I'd hate for an options position entered today to see three days of decay before the OEX rose up to the preferred 562.70-564 level Monday or Tuesday and then rolled down from there. Anyone who has been in that kind of play in the last two weeks of an options cycle knows what that does to the premium, if the play isn't stopped out. I'd have much preferred that the OEX chug slowly up in a tight range of higher lows and higher highs (flag) toward 562.70-564, have a steep decline, and then a retest with bearish divergence. Didn't happen.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 12:51:28 PM

Jeff, I'm not getting the link to your 2-point $NASI chart. Perhaps others are, but wanted to let you know in case all of us are missing it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 1:40:47 PM

Here's a 2-point box increments of the $NASI. Kind of interesting when compared to the one Tab showed. I changed from 1-point (default) to 2-box (both bring in a lot of noise), but I would have to say similar to October (A) at this point. I could probably equate my current bullish profiled stop in the QQQQ with a $NASI at 24.00? Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 12:39:33 PM

Have a good/safe weekend Tab!

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 12:37:45 PM

A view of the RUT's potential H&S, but also a more bullish possibility: Link Note: that annotation should read "Note the marked neckline . . . ," not "Not the marked neckline . . . ."

Tab Gilles : 7/1/2005 12:38:10 PM

forgot to include this chart in 11:35 AM post. Link

Jeff, charts have me short...and when they reverse I'll be long.

I'm off for a long holiday weekend...enjoy the 4th everyone! Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 12:33:14 PM

Good Gravy! ... EPIX might have some overhead supply at $15.00. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 12:28:39 PM

EPIX Pharma (EPIX) ... decent bar chart for a near-term short squeeze. "Doji" top gets reversed on a nice gap. According to NASDAQ, June 15 short interest was 2.16 million, with average daily volume running 166,919, days to cover at 12.96.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 12:23:20 PM

Hmm. Perhaps we should be watching the RUT. Hadn't noticed that the RUT had dropped back down to test yesterday's low again. Is now just a few cents above that low, but there's Keltner support at that low on the 15-minute chart. On the 30-minute one, the support is much more tenuous and a decline down to 636.40-637.83 looks possible as long as the RUT continues 30-minute closes below Keltner lines currently at 640.23-641.01, with the RUT perhaps bouncing now to retest them. The RUT's formation is a well-formed H&S on top of the climb off Monday's low, and it just missed confirmating that formation.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 12:23:57 PM

EPIX Pharmaceuticals (EPIX) $10.17 +14.91% Link ... percentage gainer after company reported its answer to an approvable letter from the Food and Drug Administration regarding Vasovist, a proposed imaging agent, has been accepted as a complete response. In January, the FDA sent EPIX the approvable letter and EPIX responded in May. The FDA is reportedly targeting an action letter on the submission for late November. The company's CEO, Michael Web said, "Although we are not yet in agreement with the FDA, we look forward to discussing the scientific issues with them as they review our complete response." Mr. Web added that "During the review process, the FDA could again request additional studies or other information before granting approval for Vasovist."

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 12:19:34 PM

Like many indices, the OEX has now coiled into a triangle shape, but a downside break would soon test yesterday's low and an upside one, the 200-sma, so I'm not looking at a break of the triangle as being a trigger for any kind of entry.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 12:14:06 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 12:11:04 PM

So far, Jonathan has picked a good time to be away as nothing is happening so far. Hope he's enjoying his afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 12:04:28 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 7/1/2005 12:03:46 PM

EUR/USD below 1.20 level Link

$GOX & PDG stops Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 12:02:00 PM

However... I can't say that my near-term convictions are as strong for the QQQQ as they were on Wednesday evening. I (QQQQ bull) sure wanted to see a bullish close above $37.26 at yesterday's close, to suggest some bullish price conviction from buyers.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 11:59:48 AM

I'm looking at a lot of 15-minute Keltner charts for various indices, and many show prices between Keltner support and resistance that looks about equally balanced.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 11:55:34 AM

Tab! You gave up on the NASDAQ from the bull side? How dare you! (grin)

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 11:54:15 AM

EMC Corp. (EMC) $13.93 +1.60% ... challenges Wednesday's highs here. Trying to get back above its rising 50-day SMA ($13.84). See chart from Wednesday's MM at 01:26:11

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 11:50:25 AM

Yesterday, the TRAN confirmed a rough H&S on the 15-minute chart, and today it has risen to retest that neckline. It's falling away from that retest, but now there's 15-minute Keltner support near yesterday's low, from 3483.30-3493.53. The TRAN is at 3498.60 as I type. This is the problem for lots of indices. They're turning lower exactly where bears would wish them to do, but yesterday's lows on many indices were at supposed strong support and so that's waiting just below.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 11:39:05 AM

The OEX tests the 200-ema again, one of many, many tests today. I think the OEX is likely to roll down from these averages, as I mentioned earlier, but those who trade options know that you don't want to waste three extra days of premium decay if you feel some concern that there might not be much movement on the pre-holiday Friday, and I do feel some concern about that. The advdec line is just rattling around, too, not giving much guidance.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 11:45:20 AM

Gold really getting whacked today. StreetTracks (GLD) $42.62 -1.88% Link ... session lows. The "fundamental" side of me thinks that we would see some speculators exit in force if they thought the Fed would not raise rates yesterday. This goes back to "gold below $400.00" if Fed is positioned right on inflation. We continue to see dollar strength, and I think this is in part due to market participants still seeing some further hikes from the Fed. Confusing is what Fed Fund Futures are saying, and what the bond market has been doing (strong buying in face of Fed tightening).

Tab Gilles : 7/1/2005 11:35:53 AM

Followup to yesterday's post (11:30AM) on $NASI Summation Index. I've taken a partial position shorting the $NDX by using the USPIX Profund, Rydex has the Venture 100 RYVNX. Looking at key indexes in the $NDX, $GSO, $GHA and $BTK along with $SOX. Link Link Link Link

Here's a chart tracking the $NASI/UOPIX/USPIX weekly. Link I also look at other indicators such as $VXN, $NAHL, $BPNDX. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 11:28:40 AM

No confirmation yet on the OEX's inverse H&S, and I wouldn't count on it being confirmed until it is, since there was no bullish price/MACD divergence on the five-minute chart as the head was formed.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 11:29:43 AM

XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $35.00 +3.98% Link ... 3-month highs here and second consecutive "buy signal." Company said it added 640,000 net subscribers in Q2, boosting its total subscriber base to more than 4.4 million. Disclosure: I picked up 1/3 position in my personal account on 06/29/05 at $34.59, stop at $29.75 and targeting $48.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 11:25:32 AM

My dad and brother have just surprised me an hour early to pick me up, so stepping away. All my best for a happy and safe Independence Day.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 11:24:12 AM

The OEX's five-minute chart shows that it's still in the process of building a possible inverse H&S on the bottom of its decline, but there was no price/MACD divergence as the head was formed. Neckline at this morning's high of 561.18, with a drop much below 558.40 invalidating the formation.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 11:18:26 AM

Swing trade sell covered/naked call alert ... should the QQQQ July $38 Call (QQQ-GL) currently bid/offer $0.05 x $0.10 trade $0.15, I would sell 10 of these contracts.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 11:13:55 AM

So, the OEX is turning down from the test of the 200-sma and -ema's, but is currently testing potential Keltner support just above 559, with that support on both the 15- and 60-minute charts.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 11:11:16 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 11:07:14 AM

Session low for August gold at 430 just printed, bouncing here to 430.5. QQQQ is testing short cycle channel support at 36.84, the short cycle upphase rolling over. 30 and 60 min channel support currently line up at 36.70, but should begin to decline as price holds below the 72 SMA at 36.94.

Tab Gilles : 7/1/2005 11:07:10 AM

Support being tested on $SOX & SMH Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 11:05:49 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,193.71, DIA $102.95, QQQQ $36.85

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 11:04:09 AM

Session high for August crude oil her at 57.45, +.95. Ten year note yields are up 6.8 bps at 4.013%.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 11:03:26 AM

The OEX continues to have difficulty with its 200-sma. It's about to close a 30-minute period below Keltner resistance at 560.67, but has Keltner support back near the 200-ema, so there's a bit of a mixed-up picture, and nothing that gives me great confidence in suggesting a bearish rollover play. I think it's possible that the OEX could rollover beneath this resistance being tested now, but it's also nearly as possible that it will pop up through them to retest the 562 or 564.80-566 levels, and I'm not sure how much downside there is if there is a rollover. I think today will likely be a useful day, but perhaps useful in that it helps to build formations that will show us next week what levels are important resistance and support.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 11:03:10 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/1/2005 10:54:39 AM

I have marked where I think the TRIN is neutral with red trendlines. As you can see it is much more bullish than it was yesterday but still really only neutral. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 10:52:08 AM

The BIX looks as if it's trying to set up a rising regression channel as it climbed off a likely double-bottom level, but we'll know soon since it's testing what should be the bottom of that channel now. The BIX is facing the resistance of its 200-sma, and it may not be successful at getting such a channel formed. The double-bottom level is at 361.55, and the BIX is at 361.12 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 10:51:23 AM

Volume breadth is down to 1.82:1 in favor of advancing NYSE volume, 1.67:1 for advancing Nasdaq volume with QQQQ back below the 72 SMA. Session high was 37.00.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 10:48:12 AM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 200.90 -0.32% ... session low of 199.48 just undercut the 200 level. Newmont Mining (NEM) $38.82 -0.53% ... still having some difficulty with the $40.00 and seeing some lower highs since its "doji top" of 06/17/05.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 10:46:32 AM

OEX above the 200-sma now, but 15-minute candles are showing some upper shadows, so there's still some uncertainty. I'm mostly watching the 30-minute chart this morning, and bulls want to see a 30-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 560.70 for a next upside target of 562.77. I'm just not sure that's going to happen. The 15-minute chart shows a potential inverse H&S, with the OEX having tested the neckline. The target on that chart has already been set at 561.50-562.00, but the Keltner lines are still descending toward the OEX. Barring a strong sell or buy program, it still looks as if the OEX might have some rattling around to do before it determines next direction.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 10:46:27 AM

Session lows for August gold and July silver at 432.80 and 6.90. Below this key 432-433 confluence, the 428 and 430 support levels come into view.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 10:39:42 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/1/2005 10:40:17 AM

Dateline CNN Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, first woman on U.S. Supreme Court, is retiring. and we all thought it would Rehnquist.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 10:35:08 AM

Still no word from the Fed, resulting in a 9B net drain for the day. TNX is up 6 bps to 4.005%, testing 4.0% resistance again.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 10:33:31 AM

QQQQ breaks above the 72 SMA on rising volume here. 30 min channel resistance is at 37.10, lined up with daily R1, 60 min resistance above at 37.18. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 10:31:12 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 362.81 +0.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 10:32:07 AM

Bank of America (BAC) $45.08 -1.16% ... sharp break of its 200-day SMA today. These bankers know how to make their mergers work, but stock takes a hit when they do one. MBNA (KRB) $25.89 -1.03% ... agreed to be bought by BAC yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 10:28:47 AM

OEX tested the 200-sma and is now back testing the 200-ema, but moving a little higher as I type. If it closes the current 60-minute period below a Keltner line currently at 559.48, it will maintain that downside target of 554.85. Doesn't look as if it's going to do that, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 10:28:10 AM

Despite price holding below the 72 SMA, the short cycle indicators have turned up for QQQQ. That signal will whipsaw if price breaks the session low, which lines up with short cycle channel support currently at 36.82. The 72 SMA is at 36.95, which bulls need to regain in order to avoid this being a merely corrective short cycle upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 10:25:36 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 10:25:02 AM

The SOX has drifted down over the last few days into a test of the 200-ema, which I think on the SOX is more important in recent months than the 200-sma. I think it often is with tech stocks. That 200-ema is at 419.36, with the SOX at 420.61. Many MA's are layered below the SOX, however, so that any declines might be tempered as the SOX feels for support, with the 200-sma at 414.52. The SOX is currently testing the 38.2% retracement of its move off the April low into the June high, with that Fib level roughly analogous with the 200-ema. It looks possible on a traditional chart that the SOX could keel over at least into a test of the 412-415 zone, but Keltner evidence suggests that the SOX is more likely to find at least temporary support again at the 418-419 level if it does decline, corroborating the impression that any declines might be hard-won for a while. However, the SOX does remain within a descending regression channel that it began establishing this week, about in the middle of that channel as I type. Until there's a push above the descending trendline drawn off the Wednesday morning high, it remains in that descending regression channel, but an upside break will then hit Keltner reistance again at 426-428. Gosh, sounds like a recipe for chop, doesn't it? Without a strong surge one direction or the other, chop in an approximate 10-12-point range sounds possible to me.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 10:24:14 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 10:22:19 AM

August crude just tagged a high of 57.075, currently up 50 cents at 57.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 10:17:24 AM

Volume breadth is holding positive along with price, advancing volume leading 1.59:1 on the NYSE and 1.73:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 10:16:29 AM

TRIN climbing. VIX not. Neither is VXN nor VXO.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 10:13:50 AM

OEX at the 200-sma, and also just below the bottom of the former support of its broadening formation. Above that, and it could be considered as being back within the broadening formation from this week, but I'm still watchin for signs that the OEX might be preparing to roll down from the 200-sma and -ema's, toward the 60-minute target set yesterday, with that target now at 554.85. Depending on how this first 60-minute period ends, though, that target could be erased, as the downside target was earlier in the week. Bears want to see the OEX close the first 60-minute period below a Keltner line currently at 559.48 or better yet a few cents lower, at 559.43, where the 200-ema sits.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 10:10:44 AM

My screen capture software is not functioning right now so I'm shutting down and rebooting. Will have top of the hour figures posted in about 10 minutes (hopefully).

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 10:10:25 AM

RUT's next Keltner resistance at 642.18 on the 30-minute chart, then at 644.15-644.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 10:07:03 AM

The Fed's website has an entry from 9:30 showing no operation, and still no announcement. If nothing changes, this will result in a net drain of 9B. Judging from the behavior of the markets so far this morning, it's looking like that money had been invested in bonds, and not stocks.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 10:05:34 AM

OEX past the 200-ema and now challenging the 200-sma. I don't think either bulls or bears are in the clear just yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 10:05:11 AM

QQQQ is back above 36.90, the short cycle indicators turning up from oversold territory. A new short cycle upphase will confirm above the 72 SMA at 36.96, with the 30 min cycle downphase already stalling. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 10:03:47 AM

Gold is down 3 to 434.20, silver -.129 to a session low of 6.90, and ten year notes are down to a session low of 113 15/64. TNX is up 1.4 bps to 3.959%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 10:02:07 AM

Construction spending -.9% vs. +.5% exp, prior revised from +.5% to -1.1%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 10:01:13 AM

ISM 53.8 vs. 51.5 exp.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 10:00:47 AM

Bearish swing trade close out 1/2 position alert .... for 1/2 of the short in shares of Bema Gold (BGO) at the offer of $2.33

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 9:57:16 AM

The OEX still challenges those 200-sma and -ema's and still can't get past them. The thing holding me back from suggesting that those wanting new bearish entries go ahead and enter a put play is that the OEX yesterday hit the 30-minute target and showed Keltner-style bullish divergence as it did so, and today's first 30-minute candle was a strong white one. That, and it's Friday before a holiday . . . and all that stuff.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 9:54:58 AM

The RLX is now back below Wednesday's low after pushing above it earlier today. Depending on how this 30-minute period ends (with a close above/below 442.11-442.65), the RLX may remain vulnerable to 438.42. There's potential Keltner-style bullish divergence on that 30-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 9:53:20 AM

The Fed has a 9B 2-day repo expiring today. Awaiting the announcement any minute.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 9:52:54 AM

VXN.X 14.35 -0.76% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 13.45, 13.95, Piv = 14.17, 14.63, 14.85.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 9:52:09 AM

Ten year notes have recovered from their earlier lows, TNX down to a .5 bp gain at 3.95%, retesting that support. July silver is down .079 to a session low of 6.95, QQQQ bouncing off a 36.82 low.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 9:51:25 AM

OEX still hasn't made it past the 200-sma and -ema's.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 9:50:03 AM

VIX.X 11.79 -2.07% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.28, 11.67, Piv= 11.88, 12.27, 12.48.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 9:49:10 AM


09:47 *DJ Univ Michigan June Sentiment 96.0; May 86.9

Consensus was 94.6, May was revised down from 94.8 to 86.9.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 9:47:29 AM

OEX still testing the 200-ema and Keltener resistance.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 9:46:39 AM

BIX attempting to bounce back toward the 200-sma, at 364.12 with the BIX at 363.10. As I've said many times over the last month, this MA is a benchmark of sorts, but the BIX doesn't appear to be using it specifically as S/R, but rather trading either side of it in a consolidation pattern. The BIX did, however, this month use the 200-ema as an exact support level and has seen several swing highs or lows at that exact average over this year, so that 200-ema at 360.84 should be considered potential support if there should be a decline.

Tab Gilles : 7/1/2005 9:45:37 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Closed below daily 10-ema stop- SELL. Link

Watch 100 and 150-emas as a buy level if oil continues it's decline. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 9:42:03 AM

Volume breadth is positive 2.29:1 on the NYSE and 2.1:1 on the Nasdaq, the TRIN and TRINQ neutral at .95 and .67 respectively. Awaiting the 9:45 Confidence data.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 9:41:54 AM

As I type, the RUT tests 640.16 Keltner resistance on the 30-minute chart, with the first 30-minute period far from being completed, however. Bulls want to see the RUT close the first 30-minute period above that level while bears want to see the RUT pull back and close the first 30-minute period below that level. It's at 640.58 as I type. If bears should get their wish, the RUT then looks vulnerable to 636.23-637.60.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 9:36:28 AM

OEX testing the 200-ema and just below the 200-sma. So far, the 15-minute one is a strong tall white candle, though, not hinting at anything corrective. It's early in the 15-minute period and the day, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 9:32:09 AM

Thanks all.

QQQQ holds the lower end of its premarket range, never having broken the 72 SMA at 36.98. Bulls need to break that level to stop the 30 min channel downphase. Channel support is down at 36.66 currently, but the short cycle indicators are oversold and trying to turn.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 9:31:59 AM

The OEX opens slightly higher and immediately climbs back above Monday's low, suggesting that it did just overrun that support. Next Keltner resistance near the 200-ema and -sma's, at 559.43-560.56.

Jeff Bailey : 7/1/2005 9:24:41 AM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.55 and set for program selling at $+3.08.

Jane Fox : 7/1/2005 9:13:15 AM

Linda I remembered because I am Canadian as well and my family is celebrating today along with Jonathan.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 9:10:30 AM

Happy Canada Day from me, too, Jonathan, to you and our Canadian readers. Thanks, Jane, for reminding us.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 9:09:20 AM

First, a caution: we have economic numbers coming at 9:45 and 10:00, as Jonathan has already noted. It's possible that the bounce that futures are suggesting will bring indices up to retest broken support just ahead of the release of the numbers, if the bounce follows through at the cash open, something it doesn't always do.

The OEX closed the day yesterday below the 200-sma. Over the last few days, it had risen to retest the 100-sma that had proven to be such strong support for more than a month. That resistance held on this first retest. Now Keltner and traditional chart analysis suggest that the OEX is vulnerable to about 555, where bears should have profit-protecting plans. Link The futures suggest that there will be a bounce first, though, if futures action follows through on the open. If the OEX should bounce, watch for a potential rollover from 560.00-562.00. Above that, watch for resistance at yesterday's high, up to 565.75. If the OEX moves above 566 and isn't immediately slapped back, then something more bullish may be going on.

Jane Fox : 7/1/2005 9:06:53 AM

Happy Canada Day Jonathan!

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 8:43:36 AM

Equities are pulling back along with bonds, QQQQ down to a 9 cent gain at 36.87 and TNX up to a 1.8 bp gain at 3.963%. This is within yesterday's range and holding above the 3.95% support line. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/1/2005 8:06:12 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1199.5, NQ 1507.5, YM 10330 and QQQQ +.12 at 36.90. August gold is down .50 at a session high of 436.70, July silver +.026 at 7.055, September 10-yr notes -3/64 at 113 27/64 and August crude oil is up .025 at 56.525.

We await the 9:45AM release of Michigan Sentiment, est. 94.6, and at 10AM, Construction Spending, est. .5%, and the ISM Index for June, est. 51.5.

Happy Canada Day to our Canadian readers. I will be leaving early this afternoon to join my family for the celebrations.

Linda Piazza : 7/1/2005 7:26:48 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei posted a gain last night, with the important quarterly tankan survey showing a better-than-expected result. Other Asian markets were mixed, however. European markets post gains, as do our futures. As of 7:12 EST, gold was down $1.1, and crude, up $0.18 to $56.68. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Ever since the Nikkei gapped higher Wednesday morning, it keeps returning to the gap to retest it. That happened again in early trading Friday morning, but then the Nikkei climbed and traded mostly between 11,630 and 11,660 the rest of the day. It closed higher by 46.12 points or 0.40%, at 11,630.13.

Japan saw a host of economic releases last night, with the most important being the quarterly tankan survey from the Bank of Japan. That showed large manufacturers' confidence index at +18, higher than the +15 forecast. The index for small manufacturers was better than expected, too, at +2 as compared to the forecast -1. Small non-manufacturers turned in better-than-expected results, too. However, the survey showed expectations for the next quarter deteriorating. Later in the day, the chief cabinet secretary reportedly said that the evidence from the tankan survey was that the economy had steadied but not yet resumed a recovering pattern.

May CPI rose 0.2% for the year-over-year number. The core rate was flat versus an expectation for a decline of 0.1%. That was the nationwide number, but Tokyo's June CPI fell 0.8% year over year in May, with the core rate falling 0.4%. Deflation still appears to be a threat, according to some market watchers. The unemployment rate was 4.4% for May, in line with expectations. The jobless number fell 120,000.

In company-specific news, Toyota was one of the stocks rising in Friday's trading. A newspaper reported that the company will export more than 1 million vehicles into the U.S. market in 2007. The company has seen interest in its subcompacts and hybrids increase.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.48%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.98%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.12%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.53%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 2.34%.

European markets climb. In Germany, Chancellor Schroeder lost the confidence vote, as had been expected. Reportedly, Schroeder wanted to lose the vote in order to force an early election, according to a Marketwatch.com article. Preparations have already begun for a general election to be held September 18, although those plans have not been formalized by a decision by the president of the parliament. He is expected to approve the decision. In the eurozone, May's unemployment has fallen to 8.8%, a lower-than-expected result. On a country-by-country basis, Germany's unemployment was 9.6%, and France's, 9.8%. Also for the eurozone, the June manufacturing PMI was better than expected, at 49.9 for the headline number, up from May's 48.7. Evidence was mixed, with output rising, employment strengthening but staying below the benchmark 50 and inflation slowing on both input and output prices. Headline numbers for Germany and France were 49.8 and 50.7, respectively.

In the U.K., the June CIPS PMI manufacturing survey was in line with expectations, with a headline number of 49.6, up from May's revised-lower 47.00. New orders rose above the 50 benchmark, to 50.8. The numbers were encouraging generally, but lessen the chance that the central bank may lower rates.

Car manufacturers and utilities rose in Europe. German drug manufacturer Altana AG did not benefit from the gains in the European bourses, however. After a study showed that the asthma drug Daxas did not provide all the hoped-for results although it did improve lung function, Pfizer bowed out of collaboration with Altana, returning all rights to the drug to Altana. In Germany, Fresenius AG rose although its acquisition of Renal Care Group will likely result in a lowering of its Standard & Poor's rating, the company revealed. BT benefited from J.P.'s starting of coverage at an overweight rating. Easynet Group posted strong gains after revealing plans to expand its local service. However, U.K. retailer plunged after warning about weak demand from consumers.

As of 7:08 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 35.40 points or 0.69%, to trade at 5,148.60. The CAC 40 showed gains of 16.88 points or 0.40%, to trade at 4,246.23. The DAX showed gains of 21.41 points or 0.47%, to trade at 4,607.69.

Market Monitor Archives