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OI Technical Staff : 7/5/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 8:05:21 PM

Maverick Tube (MVK) $31.47 +3.86% .... gap filling potential to $32.94 (see 08:04:33 PM)

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 8:04:33 PM

Lone Star Tech (LSS) 48.21 +4.57% ... closes at new 52-week high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 8:50:41 PM

Service Corp. Intl (SCI) $8.18 +1.23% ... one names left out of James Cramer's "Aging Baby Boomer" special last week.

Tab Gilles : 7/5/2005 6:20:41 PM

$NASI Nasdaq Summation Index Reversed trend... now going long. Recent moves; On May 2nd $NASI weekly signaled BUY, using the Profund or if you want Rydex funds, however, you'd have to buy on the next days close, May 3rd UOPIX $19.15. Link

SELL $NASI signal June 27th Link UOPIX 6/28 $21.19 [+10.65%]

At this point you'd want to short using Profund USPIX on 6/28 closing price of $18.25. Link

Today the $NASI gave a BUY signal, that means selling USPIX tomorrow on close NAV and buying the UOPIX. Link

1 year $NASI/UOPIX/USPIX chart Link

1 year $NYSI/ULPIX/URPIX chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 5:33:44 PM

June 2005 Trade Blotter of CLOSED MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 4:58:37 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 4:40:00 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 4:34:17 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 4:16:15 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 4:05:41 PM

Bearish swing trade lower stop alert ... for Bema Gold (BGO) $2.23 -6.69% ... to $2.35 from $2.40. Target (adjusted earlier this morning) still $2.21.

Tab Gilles : 7/5/2005 4:03:58 PM

Eaton Vance Limited Duration (EVV) over 200-ma after bouncing off of 50-ma. Link Link


Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 4:00:28 PM

Strange day. Lots of bearish formations set up or potentially set up, but either did not confirm or prices turned higher after they did confirm. Definitely an underpinning in the market, but for the OEX, it was just a day in which the OEX moved from one side of the most recent consolidation zone to the other. That's something it's done four times--gone completely or almost completely from one side to the other--since 6/24. Are we to believe this is the time there's going to be a breakout when 6/24, 6/28, and 6/30 action didn't result in any follow through? I don't know about you, but the recent ranges have shown to me to expect ranges in the OEX. The RUT and RLX action and possibly that of other indices show that there's an attempt to lead to the upside, but we just have to see how that plays out on the OEX.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 3:54:27 PM

The RLX is above 450 now and still climbing as I type. Without a quick reversal, it's violated its formation on top of the climb on the daily chart, whether that's a H&S or a diamond shape. Confirmation won't come until the RLX moves above the June high of 455.65, though. The RLX is at 450.88 as I type.

Tab Gilles : 7/5/2005 3:50:56 PM

Biotech Index ($BTK) making new yearly high. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 3:50:39 PM

Buy Program Premium SPX 1,206.22, DIA $103.85, QQQQ $37.18

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 3:50:37 PM

OEX at a new HOD.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 3:49:40 PM

Swing trade roll out covered call alert ... Closing out the two (2) Semiconductor HOLDR SMH Aug. $35 Calls (SMH-HG) at $0.70.

Rolling out and selling two (2) of the SMH Nov. $37.50 Calls (SMH-KU) at $0.75.

SMH $34.30 +1.50% here.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 3:49:38 PM

OEX's previous HOD was 563.93 and it's rising toward a retest of that HOD. While it's doing so, it's testing 15-minute Keltner resistance and daily Keltner resistance.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 3:47:52 PM

Is the RUT forming a broadening formation on top of its 15-minute climb or did it just break through the upside of a bull flag pullback? It hasn't yet broken above the rising trendline off the 13:00 and 13:45 periods' highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 3:45:10 PM

Marketwatch reports that Cindy has forced the evacuation of 29 offshore rigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mexico so far, which will reduce output by 49.830 bpd (a 3.3% change). Natural gas output will be reduced by 352.7M cubic feet per day, a 3.5% change.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 3:44:34 PM

Near 2:00 this afternoon, the OEX bounced from its 15-minute 21/100/130-ema's, so those averages have some importance today. Actually, the OEX's pattern has shown some relevance to these averages for a while. Thursday and Friday, the OEX was pressured lower by the 15-minute 21-ema, ith that average now at 562.24. The 100-ema is at 561.83 and the 130-ema is at 562.20.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 3:36:08 PM

Here's what the OEX's daily Keltner chart says: OEX bulls want to see the OEX close above daily Keltner resistance at 564.04. OEX bears want a close below that Keltner line and below 562.69, if they can get that. As I type, the OEX is at 562.97.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 3:34:41 PM

The 300 min stochastic on the 30 min chart is curling over in overbought territory with the 30 and 60 min cycle channels flattened and moving sideways as price sticks to the 72 SMA at 37.09. Volume remains light, price remains sideways, but the bottom line is that price is holding the highs above yesterday's high after printing a lower low this morning. The bears will have to reverse today's gains with authority from here to avoid the daily cycle downphase reversing to the upside tomorrow or Wednesday. Currently, 30 and 60 min channel resistance line up at 37.25, support at 36.95.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 3:32:02 PM

The RLX tries for an upside breakout, but hasn't turned in a convincing performance just yet. The BIX rose today, has slipped back from its test of the 200-sma and is just within a recent congestion zone. There's a good deal of S/R for the BIX near 362, and that's where the RLX is now, near 362, at 362.12. These are both important in the OEX's behavior.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 3:29:13 PM

Ford Motor (F) $10.42 +1.06% ... matches General Motors' (GM) $34.81 +0.46% "Employee Discount Program." Ford's program called "Ford Family Plan" and will run through August 1.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 3:29:57 PM

The RLX approached 450, but hasn't topped it yet. That formation, the H&S or diamond or whatever it is, could still be valid.

Tab Gilles : 7/5/2005 3:17:16 PM

Placer Dome (PDG) Stopped out @ $14.55. Link

$GOX Stop still set at 80. Link

Friday's action in PDG & $GOX was unusual considering GOLD was down. PDG down on stike news as Jeff pointed out earlier. Link Sorry I wasn't able to post earlier...just got in from long weekend, hope everyone enjoyed the holiday.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 3:17:10 PM

The RUT may already have confirmed a H&S visible on its five-minute chart, with a rising neckline, now at about 650. The RUT looks as if it's rising right now, immediately after breaking below the neckline's support, to retest that neckline, if so.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 3:15:29 PM

OEX pulling back slightly from the test of the daily Keltner resistance. There's a potential H&S on the five-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 3:14:24 PM

QQQQ is back the 72 SMA, trading well below the already-low 83.54M share average volume, currently at 63.6M shares traded with an hour to go. Volume breadth has weakened within positive territory, advancing shares leading 1.89:1 on the NYSE and 2.26:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 3:12:43 PM

Tomorrow's economic calendar is light again tomorrow, with the Challenger jobs report and the ISM non-manufacturing survey scheduled for 10AM.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 3:08:40 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 3:02:14 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 3:01:52 PM

The RUT maintains its breakout status on the 30-minute chart and has also broken back above 650. On the 30-minute chart, its pattern still looks like a possible bull flag, but RUT bulls don't want to see that 30-minute Keltner support near 649 and then near 646-647 broken on 30-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 2:58:24 PM

I don't think there's been more than a day or two since the middle of May that I haven't been able to say that the OEX was stuck in some kind of range or formation. That "other than a day or two" was only the amount of time that the OEX needed to establish the parameters of a new range. The current range is delimited by the 100-sma (on daily closes) to the upside and about 557.75 to the downside, although the 200-sma and -ema also play a role in downside support.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 2:55:12 PM

The OEX rises again toward a test of the daily Keltner resistance. The important 100-sma is overhead at 564.73, with that averages important on daily closes since the middle of May, first as support and then as resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 2:50:16 PM

Session low for ten year note futures (ZNU5) at 112 9/64, with TNX up 5 bps or 1.23% to 4.099%. It's strange to see bonds this weak on a day when the Fed has added so much liquidity via its open market desk. The high-yields on the 13- and 26-week auctions were also the highest in years. One would expect to see bonds rallying along with equities with all this new money in the hands of the Fed's dealers.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 2:39:59 PM

August crude oil finished +.875 at 59.625, off a 60.075 high and 58.75 low.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 2:37:48 PM

RUT dropping toward the 30-minute support near 648.64-648.71. RUT bulls want to see it maintain that level on 30-minute closes.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 2:34:11 PM

QQQQ is now printing its first 3 min candle below the 72 SMA at 37.09. However, volume remains light, and volume breadth is still strong, 2.3:1 in favor of advancing volume on the Nasdaq. The 30 min channel bottom is edging lower, and the intraday bias has become less bullish than it was earlier, but the bears need get the price actually moving lower to confirm. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 2:22:45 PM

NASDAQ Comp (COMPX) has been testing 61.8% retracement last couple of hours. NH/NL indications look strong. Bar chart from Wednesday Market Wraps at this Link ... Friday's NASDAQ Comp. Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) Link

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 2:20:21 PM

RUT below 650 again, but that's probably more psychological than historical or Keltner support. The 30-minute chart shows Keltner support at 648.33-648.67 and then at 646.61-646.90. Remember that daily Keltner S/R at 645.77. RUT bulls don't want to see the RUT close back under that line.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 2:17:07 PM

QQQQ rolls over here from a lower high, peeking below the 72 SMA at 37.09 for the first today. Bears need to see a break of the prior 37.06 low for confirmation, followed by 30 min channel support which has risen to 37.00.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 2:16:13 PM

OEX back below the 50-dma after piercing it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 2:15:29 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 2:15:12 PM

RUT turning back to test 650.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 2:14:28 PM

Earlier, the TRAN retested the 6/30 high of 3535.35. Today's HOD was 3536.85, just a little above that 6/30 high, with the TRAN currently at 3522.45, dropping into a zone where 15-minute Keltner support thins. Next support is at 3518.36, but stronger support is back down at that 3512 historical S/R, at 3512.31. Below that, support is just above 3500. There's the potential for a double-top formation on the 60-minute chart, so market bulls don't want the TRAN to fall too far.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 2:09:06 PM

August crude oil is down to a .60 gain at 59.35, off a session high of 60.075. Ten year note yields are holding the bulk of their gains, +4.1 bps at 4.09%.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 2:05:42 PM

OEX still testing 15-minute support at 562.70 (on closes after attempting to rise past 563.50-ish resistance. Next support beneath this near 562, and then at 561.27. Bulls would most like to see that 562.70 support hold, although 561.95-ish support would be acceptable as long as the OEX bounces from that. The OEX has already erased its upside target of 567, however. I never felt comfortable with that target, though, because the important 100-sma was between the OEX's position and that target. The target can be reset, of course, depending on what happens with the tesing of support.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 2:01:52 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 1:55:14 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle upphase is growing toppy, now in overbought territory as the 60 min cycle indicators continue their slower rise. A failure to break 37.20 during the next hour should see that cycle weaken, confirmed by a break below the 72 SMA at 37.05. The longer daily cycle has not aborted its downphase, but even a flat day tomorrow should see the 10 day stochastic print a bullish kiss. In that event, this morning's low and subsequent rocket above Friday's high for a key upside reversal would have an excellent chance of marking a daily cycle low.

3 day chart of QQQQ updated at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 1:49:33 PM

EMC Corp. (EMC) $14.25 +0.50% ... has reversed morning losses. Challenges Friday's late session highs.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 1:48:47 PM

Next Nasdaq 30-minute Keltner resistance at 2078.54 on 30-minute closes. Over the last 30 minutes, the Nasdaq has been finding support at the 50% retracement of the decline off the 6/23 high into the 6/27 low.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 1:44:27 PM

Pre Paid Legal (PPD) $49.37 +10.20% Link ... the "jury is out." Bulls continue to press the stock to new highs.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 1:41:54 PM

The OEX has been testing Keltner 15-minute support at 562.62 and is currently rising from that to test 563.50-ish Keltner resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 1:37:02 PM

QQQQ has just tested the 72 SMA for the first time today, currently at 36.05. Below that level, there's light confluence at 37.00 and the 30 min channel bottom ast the 11:45 low at 36.95.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 1:36:15 PM

Collegiate Pacific (AMEX:BOO) $11.28 +9.51% Link ... challenges its 200-day SMA ($11.22) on heavy volume of 700K. The catalog retailer of sports clothing and equipment said it acquired a majority stake in an institutional athletic supplier (Sport Supply Group) from Emerson Radio Corp. (NYSE:MSN) $3.25 +10.92% for $32 million in cash, continuing the company's strategy of expansion through acquisitions.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 1:31:43 PM

RUT still maintaining 650 and the 30-minute breakout, but be watchful of a downturn since it's also facing daily resistance and that may hold on a daily close. Bulls want 30-minute support from 646.28-649.30 to hold.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 1:29:50 PM

August crude oil back to the session high, +1.20 at 59.95.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 1:25:46 PM

Able Laboritories (ABRX) $3.13 -11.07% Link ... new 52-weeker on news the generic drugmaker is canceling it annual shareholders meeting and saying it is unsure if it would ever be able to resume operation. On May 27, the FDA issued a formal recall of all Able products due to quality control problems.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 1:24:43 PM

OEX drifts down to test 15-minute Keltner support at 562.60. Bulls want to see this support hold on 15-minute closes, although further support cycles below, down to 561.81.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 1:20:49 PM

The RLX has not topped 450 yet today, although it did test the 449.46 high reached on 6/07. Today's HOD has been 449.25. The RLX has also reached above a descending trendline off the 6/17 high, although it's pulling back now toward a possible retest of that descending trendline. While it's retesting that 6/17 high, it's also retesting the top of the huge gap from January. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 1:20:30 PM

Session low for 10 year notes, ZNU5 trading 112 7/32 with TNX up 4.8 bps to 4.097%, a 1.19% increase today.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 1:19:34 PM

72 SMA support is as close to the price as it's been since price broke above it at 10AM with the Fed repo announcements, currently at 37.02 QQQQ down to 37.10. A break below it will stall the 30 min cycle upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 1:18:49 PM

Todco (THE) $28.78 +7.58% Link ... new 52-weeker here. Credit Suisse upgraded the oil/gas driller on Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 1:11:07 PM

Williams Co. (WMB) $19.50 +1.77% Link ... 52-weeker (spread triple top buy signal) and threatens break above 4-month resistance.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 1:10:15 PM

The OEX did not complete its evening-star pattern on the 15-minute chart, but instead created only a small red candle when a long red candle was needed. Once again, there's a potential bull flag instead of the confirmed evening-star formation. Perhaps bulls aren't through yet. The OEX's 15-minute chart shows support perhap firming, first from 562.55-563.06 and then at 561.76-561.96. Bulls want one of those support levels to hold. Bears don't.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 1:08:46 PM

Walgreen (WAG) $46.71 +1.36% Link ... reports 7.6% same store sales gain for June.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 1:07:34 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 1:06:36 PM

The 13 week t-bill auction generated a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.5, the strongest demand since the end of April, but with a high-rate of 3.14%, a level not seen since 2001. The 26-week bills went off at a high-rate of 3.325%, bid-to-cover 2.18, again decent demand but at a much higher than usual rate. Foreign central banks took 8.8B of the 32B total.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 1:03:50 PM

The Wilshire 5000 has moved above 12,000, questioning the validity of its potential H&S at the top of its climb. Without a pullback by today's close, perhaps below 11,980 or so, that formation will look invalidated. The Wilshire 5000 is at 12,019.32 as I type. The Wilshire 5000 usually adheres to daily Keltner levels fairly well, and there's resistance on that chart (on daily closes) from 12,069.43-12,112.29.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 1:02:04 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 1:00:51 PM

The Dow, of course, remains within a consolidation pattern that it began establishing on 6/23, climbing up today within that formation. The top of that formation is broadly defined by the 50-sma, 200-ema, and 200-sma's, from 10,403.16-10,446.09, with further resistance above that. So far, although the Dow climbs, it's still just consolidating, although other indices show breakouts.

Jane Fox : 7/5/2005 1:00:12 PM

Dateline WSJ When the year began, many analysts and money managers were bullish about stocks after a brisk year-end rally -- bad music to the ears of contrarians, who generally think stocks can't rise until everybody and their grandmother is bad-mouthing them. Sure enough, the Dow has fallen about 4.7% so far this year. But money managers are still way too bullish, Mark Hulbert, editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, wrote in a MarketWatch column. "They are nowhere close to being so pessimistic as to trigger contrarian-based buy signals," he wrote.

This weekend, Jason Goepfert, CEO of Sundial Capital Research and founder of SentimenTrader.com, pointed out another sign of excessive bullishness: according to the latest survey by the Investment Company Institute, mutual funds are carrying just 4.1% of their assets in cash and cash-like securities, meaning there's little ammo available for a stock-market rally. The last time the figure was so low -- March 2000, right about the time the tech-stock bubble popped -- as if you needed the history lesson. Mr. Goepfert hastened to point out some reasons the latest bottom in cash may not be a sign of the apocalypse, including the advent of derivatives that give fund managers more ways to put money to work. "But I would keep a close eye on this measure," he said, "for if we see cash dip much lower ... then that would be sending an ominous historical signal indeed."

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 12:57:57 PM

RUT so far maintaining its 30-minute breakout.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 12:56:41 PM

Awaiting the results from the 17B 13-week and 15B 26-week T-bill auctions due shortly.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 12:55:19 PM

Last week's highs are in play to 37.25 QQQQ, above which 37.33-.35 resistance comes into view. 37.20 looks like stiff resistance based on the 30 min and short cycle keltner resistance levels, as well as the confluence from mid-June. Updated 2-day chart at this Link . Note that bonds remain weak today, despite the massive assist from the Fed, with TNX up 4.4 bps at 4.093% and printing fresh buy signals on the daily TNX chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 12:54:40 PM

Daimler Chrysler (DCX) $40.15 -0.81% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 12:53:50 PM

Ford (F) $10.40 +0.87% Link ...

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 12:53:36 PM

Once again, the OEX's chart shows a potential reversal signal in the making--long white candle, doji, now the beginnings of a red candle. This time, it's on the 15-minute chart and not the 30-minute one. The last reversal signal was not completed as the red candle was not long enough, and the formation was converted into a bull-flag pullback. If these reversal signals keep being invalidated, that's a signal, too, to bears. It's a signal that although markets "want" to decline, there's some not-well-understood underpinning.

As I typed, that "beginnings of a red candle" now has turned into a small white candle. The OEX may be setting up a potential upside target of 567 on the 15-minute chart, but there's that pesky 100-sma to get in the way of any such upside target.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 12:53:07 PM

General Motors (GM) $34.94 +0.83% Link ... extending its "Employee Discount to Everyone" campaign through August 1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 12:49:29 PM

U.S. Energy (USEG) $3.77 +4.72% ... finds a bid. Volume relatively light at 141,085.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 12:47:56 PM

Marathon Oil (MRO) $56.58 +1.87% Link ... evacuates esential staff from Gulf of Mexico operations. Shuts in 2,400 b/d of oil, 9.5mmcf of gas.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 12:45:17 PM

DJUSHB consolidating near 1000, at 1000.94 as I type, just above Friday's gap lower.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 12:43:41 PM

The RLX has also been an important index to watch today as it was another index leading higher. It's now at 448.83, just below the 450 level that's probably a marker for an appropriate level for its right shoulder for the potential H&S seen on its daily chart. A move much above 450 would probably invalidate that formation. In fact, without a quick reversal today, as seen on a daily chart, the formation may have aready been invalidated.

I don't know, though. That formation on the top of the RLX's chart also looks like a diamond shape to me. Those are typically bearish, but have broken to the upside at times over the last few years.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 12:38:35 PM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) up 3.9 bp at 4.088%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 12:39:15 PM

Volume breadth to new highs here, advancing shares leading 2.66:1 on the NYSE and 3.07:1 on the Nasdaq. The TRINQ and TRINQ remain neutral in bullish territory at .71 and .67 respectively. Despite the strong gains today, NDX volatility (QQV) is up 4.83% to 13.67, with the total put to call ratio in neutral territory, most recent reading at .67.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 12:38:00 PM

RUT above 650, and it closed a 30-minute period above the 30-minute Keltner resistance at 648.07, confirming the upside breakout shown by the inverse H&S confirmation. The daily chart shows a possible 670.36 upside target if the RUT maintains a daily close above the Keltner line currently at 645.65. Bulls do not want to see a reversal, then, to keep that upside target in place.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 12:37:28 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 363.14 +0.59% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 12:36:59 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert ... for shares of Wells Fargo (WFC) $61.48 +0.34% here, stop $60.90, target $62.90.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 12:34:03 PM

Prudential ... making a bold call today. Recommends that investors with the "appropriate risk tolerance" allocate 100% of their portfolios to equities.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 12:32:15 PM

Session highs across the board. QQQQ has confluence and 30 min channel resistance at 37.20. The equivalent level is 1520 on the NQ.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 12:32:08 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,205.50, DIA $103.70, QQQQ $37.14

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 12:32:05 PM

The OEX is now at 30-minute Keltner resistance that stopped it (30-minute closes) on 6/29, on a couple of tests. That resistance is at 563.64, with further resistance at 564.62.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 12:30:30 PM

Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,204.85, DIA $103.69, QQQQ $37.12

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 12:30:23 PM

RUT just under 650. I had thought earlier that there might be a push up to test 650, with the RUT so close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 12:29:58 PM

Wal Mart (WMT) $46.68 +2.89% Link ... retailing giant finds gains after the world's largest retailer estimated over the weekend that June sales rose a better-than-expected 4.5% at U.S. stores open at least a year, its biggest monthly gain in 13 months.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 12:29:44 PM

The OEX's 100-sma is at 564.72. This average served as support throughout much of May and June, and then served as resistance over the last week, so should be presumed to be resistance again. Those in builsh positions should be making profit-protecting plans for a test of 564-566.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 12:28:12 PM

August crude oil is 15 cents off its session high, +1.05 at 59.80. Updated 50 tick chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 12:25:56 PM

Mohawk Industries (MHK) $92.00 +11.92% Link ... stock surging after the company said it would buy Belgian-based flooring maker, Unilin, for $2.6 billion.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 12:24:38 PM

The RUT is attempting a breakout above the 30-minute Keltner line currently at 647.91. The RUT is currently at 648.66, but of cours has not completed a 30-minute close above that Keltner line.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 12:22:55 PM

The OEX is coming up to test 15-minute Keltner resistance currently at 562.72 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 12:20:30 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 12:16:20 PM

The DJUSHB is back below 1000 again, at 999.01 as I type. This index could be setting up another H&S formation. It rose higher than Friday's version of a right shoulder, but probably not high enough to invalidate the H&S on its 15- and 30-minute charts.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 12:11:59 PM

That 30-minute resistance on the RUT still holds, but the 30-minute pattern looks like a possible bull flag. The last 30-minute period's candle was a red one, but it wasn't a long-enough red candle to complete the morning-star formation, at least in my opinion.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 12:11:31 PM

So far a sideways downphase for QQQQ's short cycle, the low of which so far has been 36.95. Volume is light so far, following the strong upside boume until 10:45. The 30 min cycle upphase continues, and it will take a break of 36.90 to stall it. Updated 2-day chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 12:09:23 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 12:02:32 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 12:00:52 PM

July 5 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Cindy, the third of the Atlantic season, threatened the U.S. coast of the Gulf of Mexico, while Dora, the fourth named storm of the eastern Pacific hurricane season, brought the risk of floods and mudslides to the west coast of Mexico, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Cindy was upgraded to a tropical storm from a tropical depression after maximum sustained winds strengthened to near 45 mph (72 kph). A tropical storm warning was issued for the Gulf coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to Pascagoula, Mississippi, an area that includes New Orleans.


Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 11:59:20 AM

Blackbaud Inc. (BLKB) $13.67 +0.88% Link ... announces preliminary results of self tender offer. Company saying about 36.9 million shares were tendered. Company had previously announced its intentions to self tender 2,620,690 shares of common stock at $14.50 per share in cash with offer expiring 07/01/2005.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 11:55:21 AM

Watch the OEX with respect to its 50-sma at 562.37 today, too, as that provided resistance earlier today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 11:50:32 AM

Swing trade long close out alert ... closing out the 300 share long in shares of Southwest Airlines (LUV) $13.73 -0.57% here.

Will hold long the four (4) LUV Dec $15 Puts (LUV-XC)

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 11:48:03 AM

Volume breadth is still strong, 1.7:1 for NYSE advancing and 2.2:1 on the Nasdaq, even as QQQQ breaks back below 37.00 on a burst of volume. The TRIN and TRINQ are neutral at .86 and .64, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 11:47:11 AM

The advdec line, advdecv line and other internals aren't giving us much corroboration of any downturn in the making, but the OEX's 30-minute chart shows a potential reversal signal in the making, right where bears would like to see such a formation set up, below the daily Keltner resistance from 562.68-564.00. The 30-minute period of far from completed, however, and the OEX needs a little deeper of a decline to confirm that formation. There are the 200-sma and -ema lurking just below, too. Those who want to give it a try anyway should have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of 555-556, if that should be touched, but should also be prepared for the possibility of a bounce from higher, from 559.50-561.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 11:35:39 AM

The TRAN also did not print a doji on the last 30-minute period, but instead printed a strong white candle. The TRAN, too, like the RLX, faces presumed historical and Keltner resistance, now at that 3525 level that I mentioned earlier as being stronger resistance. Mixed evidence on the RLX and TRAN, then, although both are attempting to lead higher.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 11:32:52 AM

Scanning charts, I see that a number of indices printed doji on the just-completed 30-minute periods. The RLX was not one of those, however, printing a strong white candle. The RLX may be an index that should be watched today, too, although it's approaching 449-450-ish resistance. It's now at 448.34.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 11:32:03 AM

Session high for August crude here at 59.725, +.975.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 11:29:25 AM

The short cycle indicators have printed a sell signal, just in time for the sideways bounce from 37.01. A weak/corrective short cycle downphase for the next few hours is definitely not what bears want to see, and would be quite bullish, confirming the strong 30 and 60 min cycle upphases that kicked off this morning. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 11:22:43 AM

You know, I'm seeing the expected bounces, but, other than the RUT's tentative confirmation of a continuation-form inverse H&S, most other indices are just moving back up into congestion or consolidation zones. Guess it may be important to watch the RUT this morning and see how it does with this test of Keltner resistance on the 30-minute chart, to see if it gets pushed right back below the neckline of the formation that it just confirmed or can build on that confirmation with a Keltner breakout, too. So far, it's not happening.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 11:20:49 AM

Session low for August gold and Sept. silver here at 423.90 and 6.88 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 11:18:22 AM

RUT hanging in there at the 30-minute Keltner resistance. I would think that, this close to 650, there might be a push up toward it, just to test the round-number resistance, but so far, the slightly lower 30-minute Keltner resistance is holding.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 11:16:08 AM

The OEX is turning down from 15-minute Keltner resistance, with the 15-minute channel often showing more relevance for the OEX. It hasn't retreated far, still within testing level of the resistance. That chart suggests that 15-minute closes below 561.86-562.50, and particularly below 561.65, make a deeper pullback, perhaps only to 560.41, look more possible. The 15-minute period just closed with the close at 561.83.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 11:12:42 AM

Crude inventories will be delayed until Thursday, I heard this morning.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 11:10:52 AM

The RUT's 30-minute Keltner chart, with annotations: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 11:10:06 AM

Volume breadth is positive 1.69:1 on the NYSE, 2.11:1 on the Nasdaq here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 11:08:40 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 11:04:16 AM

QQQQ and crude oil are trading in lockstep this morning, lifted along on the largest net repo add I've seen in a long time. Bonds remain negative despite this massive injection of liquidity, however. QQQQ is pulling back from the spike high, testing R2 from above. Bears need to see a break below the 72 SMA at 36.83 to stall the 30 min cycle upphase. 5 min chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 11:03:57 AM

RUT closed the just-completed 30-minute period at/slightly below 30-minute Keltner resistance, now at 647.56. The RUT is at that as I type. This 30-minute charts S/R have been fairly important to the RUT lately.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 11:01:48 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 11:01:51 AM

OEX still moving higher and not yet showing any signs of rolling over, but it's just now gapped up to test 15-minute Keltner resistance, at 562.46 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 10:58:02 AM

RUT still testing 30-minute Keltner resistance, with that 30-minute chart often having resonance for the RUT.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 10:57:12 AM

The TRAN has come back to retest the 3512-3514-ish neckline of the H&S that it confirmed last week. It has already retested that neckline before, last Thursday and fell away that time, but now tests it again. The TRAN is at 3513.57 as I type. On the 15-minute chart, it's facing Keltner resistance now, but will see stronger resistance at 3523.73. There's a hint of Keltner-style bearish divergence on that chart, but that can be erased.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 10:50:21 AM

The RUT looks as if it's confirmed a continuation-form inverse H&S on its 60-minute chart. I don't trust these things at all to meet their upside targets, but that doesn't mean that I'm going to ignore the fact that RUT bulls were able to get this much accomplished this morning. The RUT now approaches the 6/17 high of 648.19, with the RUT at 647.89 as I type, and it needs to push above that 6/17 high to keep the upward momentum going. It's facing 30-minute Keltner resistance right now, however, and that 30-minute chart sometimes is important to the RUT.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 10:47:53 AM

August crude oil is up .775 to 59.525 here, 50 tick chart at this Link . Equities are hitting new highs as bonds edge higher in negative territory and crude oil ticks up.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 10:46:32 AM

As it did Friday, the OEX has punched above the 200-sma. In fact, it's also moved above Friday's 561.18 high. Bulls do not want to see the OEX fall back below the 200-sma and -ema, currently at 560.63 and 559.44, respectively. The OEX's daily chart pattern could be a "b" distribution pattern after the fall from the 6/17 high of 570.42 or it could be just consolidation along the OEX's 200-sma and -ema's. The consolidation along the 200-sma and -ema's must look positive to bulls, but the failure to reclaim the 100-sma, so important through much of May and June, must encourage bears to believe that this consolidation is more likely the bulb part of a "b" distribution pattern. Whatever it is, the OEX is trading within that pattern, below daily Keltner resistance from 562.67-563.98, and so remaining vulnerable to a decline. Keltner charts were suggesting a bounce this morning although futures weren't, but Keltner's also suggest that it's still a time to look for bearish rollover entries. Be careful today as bulls and bears sort this out, but look for signs of a potential rollover as the OEX approaches that 562.67-563.98 zone. If there is a rollover, bears need to have profit-protecting plans in place for the 557.50-559.50 zone. Not much room for a profit there if the OEX is going to continue chopping around within the recent consolidation zone. Remember that a daily close above 563.99 changes the tenor somewhat and would require another look at chart characteristics to see if sell-the-rallies mode still continues.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 10:42:05 AM

Volume breadth now positive 1.41:1 on the NYSE and 2.46:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 10:39:10 AM

Buy Program Premium at 10:31 AM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 10:37:17 AM

GMX Resources (GMXR) $14.90 +2.97% Link ... notable new 52-weeker at the NASDAQ.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 10:36:11 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $37.74 +3.39% Link ... strong after First Albany ups earnings and sales estimates citing the company's new Tiger operating system and increased assumptions for iPod sales to offset weakness in Mac-Mini PC sales. Analyst Joel Wagonfeld raising his Q3 EPS estimate to $0.34 from $0.29 and revenue to $3.4 billion from $3.3 billion.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 10:34:16 AM

SOX now above the last 15-minute swing high, testing 425.05-426.67 Keltner resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 10:31:06 AM

Bearish swing trade stop/target adjustment ... for Bema Gold (BGO) $2.29 -4.18% ... lower stop on remaining 1/2 position to $2.40, lower target to $2.21.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 10:30:26 AM

Session highs across the board, QQQQ at 37.01.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 10:29:06 AM

The SOX broke out of that descending regression channel, but has not so far been able to move above the last 15-minute swing high, at 424.04, reached on the 2:15 candle on Friday. The SOX is at 423.72 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 10:27:28 AM

August crude oil +.625 at 59.375, off a high of 59.70.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 10:26:47 AM

10 Most Active ... QQQQ $36.95 +0.59%, MSFT $24.93 +0.89%, ORCL $13.11 -1.35%, SPY $119.72 +0.15%, INTC $26.56 +1.33%, CSCO $18.92 -0.36%, KRB $25.53 -0.93%, MERQ $37.48 -1.85%, SIRI $6.57 +0.30%, IWM $64.00 +0.28%

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 10:23:50 AM

The BIX declined today, but has now climbed back almost to Friday's close. The BIX opened at its 200-ema and just above its 100-sma and is trying to rise from those. The BIX's rise has not been impressive so far, however, but its 15-minute chart does have a little of the look of a bullish falling wedge, with an upside breakout not yet confirmed.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 10:23:31 AM

QQQQ update at this Link with price stalled above the upper intraday cycle channels and below 37.00. The pop occurred the Fed was announcing its huge repo adds.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 10:22:45 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 10:19:19 AM

RUT has pierced the 30-minute Keltner line currently at 644.25, but hasn't closed a 30-minute period above it, of course. Next target is 647.25, according to that chart, as long as the RUT maintains the current breakout above 644.25.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 10:18:08 AM

Bonds have recovered part of their losses as well, TNX down to a 3.1 bp gain at 4.08%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 10:16:57 AM

QQQQ has blown through the 30 and 60 min cycle channels, its spike high at 36.99 currently. Daily R2 is at 37.07, with the short cycle indicators turned sharply higher from oversold territory.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 10:16:04 AM

The SOX has been traveling lower in a descending regression channel since June 27, and it's now challenging the top of that descending regression channel. The SOX bounced this morning from its 100-sma and 200-ema, averages that are important to the SOX's behavior in recent months, but it's now testing the bottom of a trading range from early last week. I'm watching to see if it can maintain a breakout of the top of its descending regression channel in which it's been declining. The SOX regularly pierces that channel, as it's doing now, before settling back inside it and rolling down again, but so far, it's holding its breakout level. A 30-minute close above the Keltner lines currently at 421.76-422.52 would perhaps confirm the breakout, but then there's resistance at its 200-week sma and 30-minute Keltner lines currently at 425.04-426.40.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 10:15:45 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,197.43, DIA $103.17, QQQQ $36.95

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 10:15:01 AM

The Fed announces another repo of 8B, this a 2-day repo, for a huge net add of 14.5B today.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 10:12:32 AM

Volume breadth is now mixed, Nasdaq advancing volume leading 1.61:1 and NYSE declining volume leading 1.25:1.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 10:10:32 AM

The Fed just announced a 12B overnight repo against the 5.5B expiring, for a net add of 6.5B.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 10:10:11 AM

On Friday, the RUT narrowly avoided confirming a H&S on its 15- and 30-minute charts, and now it continues the move higher that it began when rejecting that formation. It will hit next 30-minute Keltner resistance at 643.99 (on 30-minute closes), with the RUT currently at 643.58.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 10:07:28 AM

The OEX has finally pushed above a Keltner line currently at 558.61, although not yet closing a 15-minute period above it. Next Keltner resistance at 559.63-559.96.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 10:06:28 AM

KBH, MDC and RYL were downgraded by CSFB.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 10:05:26 AM

QQQQ pops up to 72 SMA resistance, breaking above 36.77 as I type. 30 min channel resistance is at 36.85, followed by the 60 at 36.92. If price holds at or above these levels, however, those channels will turn up.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 10:02:26 AM

Didn't I hear that CSFB downgraded homebuilders this morning? I'll check in a moment, but the DJUSHB dropped from its Friday close just below 1000, all the way to the neckline of a H&S on its 15-minute chart, but it's trying to bounce from that neckline as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 10:02:07 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 10:01:48 AM

Session low for August gold at 423.90, with the HUI down 2.09% at 197.84, XAU -2.44% at 91.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 10:01:01 AM









Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 10:00:20 AM

Factory orders due now. Est. is 3.0%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 9:59:32 AM

VIX.X 12.24 +7.36% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.13, 11.29, Piv= 11.60, 11.76, 12.07.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 9:59:14 AM

No word from the Fed yet as to its expiring 5.5B 5-day repo. No action today will result in a net drain in that amount.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 9:58:31 AM

The OEX still can't maintain 15-mnute closes above the Kelner line currently at 558.57, but it is maintaining 15-minute closes above trying-to-firm Keltner support, from 556.97-557.94.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 9:56:09 AM

The Wilshire 5000 either coils or is forming a right shoulder for a potential H&S. Take your pick according to your bias. One would be a bearish development, of course, and the other neutral, but possibly predicting an upside breakout since the coiling formation would have formed after a climb off the spring lows. A break much above 12,000, unless quickly reversed, would invalidate the H&S theory and would suggest an upside break in the making, although I think bulls would certainly want to see a break above the double-top level (February and June tops) created on the daily chart before believing that an upside break was confirmed. Bulls of any stripe, in any index, want to see the Wilshire 5000 head above 12,000 and then that double-top area before they get too excited about upside prospects. Bears want to see the Wilshire roll down through 11,795.55, the neckline area for the H&S. The Wilshire 5000 is at 11,911.36 as I type, trying to bounce off the 30-sma at 11,902.08.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 9:55:42 AM

Ten year treasury notes hit a low of 112 7/32 and are edging up here, TNX currently +5 bps at 4.099%. Next resistance is at 4.14%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 9:54:03 AM

EMC Corp. (EMC) $13.96 -1.48% Link ... no follow through on Friday's "Cisco merger talk."

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 9:52:16 AM

Volume breadth is improving, declining shares leading 1.7:1 now on the Nasdaq. The short cycle indicators are oversold and showing a slight positive divergence, but the 36.70-.75 overhang is holding back the bulls for the time being. 3 min QQQQ chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 9:51:39 AM

QQQQ $36.69 -0.12% ... DAILY Interval bar chart with updated WEEKLY (blue) and MONTHLY (red) pivot retracement at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 9:51:14 AM

The RLX performs well this morning, rising, but it's still within the appropriate right-shoulder level for a potential H&S on its daily chart. A move above 450, unless quickly reversed, would invalidate the formation. The RLX is at 444.74 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 9:47:17 AM

The Keltner picture for the OEX shows the Keltner support trying to firm beneath the OEX, but not quite as firm as those hoping for a bounce would like to see it. The OEX is rising to test a Keltner line currently at 558.57, although it couldn't close the last 15-minute period above this first-benchmark Keltner line. The sense is that there's an attempt by bulls to hold this support, but that the hold is still tenuous.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 9:45:49 AM

Bema Gold (BGO) $2.33 -2.51% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 9:44:41 AM

Placer Dome (PDG) $14.59 -5.19% Link ... lower after the miner said unionized workers at its Zaldivar copper mine in Chile have commenced strike after management and workers have been negotiating a renewal of existing labor contract, without success. The effect of the strike on total production cannot be determined at this time. The Zaldivar mine was forecast to produce about 330 million pounds of copper cathode from its heap leach operations this year.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 9:44:32 AM

QQQQ is holding on 30 and 60 min channel support (premarket data removed) at 36.32. The 72 SMA is just below daily R1 at 36.77, with the short cycle indicators holding in oversold territory.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 9:43:51 AM

The OEX still tests Thursday's low, trying to find support there.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 9:40:45 AM

The OEX came within a couple of cents of Thursday's low and now attempts a bounce, but it's a tepid one so far. Those hoping for a bounce would like to see the OEX close this first 15-minute period above the Keltner line currently at 558.63.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 9:38:20 AM

Volume breadth is negative on both exchanges, declining volume leading 2.17:1 on the NYSE and 2.28:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 9:40:20 AM

Mercury Interactive (MERQ) $36.21 -5.23% Link ... lower after the business software maker warned of Q2 shortfall and possibility it may have to revise past financial statements. MERQ now saying it sees quarterly earnings between $0.30-$0.35 per share, with revenue ranging from $200-$205 million. Previously, the company has forecasted EPS between $0.33-$0.37 and revenue between $205-$215 million. MERQ added its change in deferred revenue will be flat to up $10 million, which is down from a past view of $20 million to $30 million, citing effects of currency exchange rates and fewer orders during the period.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 9:36:32 AM

I'm going to go offline for a few minutes and see if I can resolve this problem.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 9:36:10 AM

My broker tells me that the OEX is declining toward Thursday's 557.76 low, although my charting service still isn't giving me updated charts, despite changing servers several times. Be watchful for a potential bounce attempt at Thursday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 9:33:36 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert ... for the QQQQ $36.65 -0.20%. (Session low has been $36.60)

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 9:32:00 AM

Sigh. No updated charts on the OEX yet. Still showing only Friday's values.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2005 9:29:04 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday. HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.13 and set for program selling at $+2.79.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 9:14:54 AM

Ten year notes are weaker, back to the lows with ZNU5 trading 112 23/64, off a low of 112 11/32. TNX is now up 3.7 bps to 4.087%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 8:55:36 AM

This is a tricky spot for QQQQ. All of the intraday cycle indicators, from the 60 min down to the short cycle and wavelet oscillator, are oversold and due for an upphase. The daily cycle is declining, and the weekly appears to have topped in overbought (no sell signals yet). Based on this setup, my guess would be for a corrective bounce to fail below Thursday's 36.20 high. However, the degree to which all of the intraday cycles are oversold could suggest a synchronous and thus stronger upphase, which itself could threaten the ongoing daily cycle downphase.

In the meantime, however, the price trend has been lower since Wednesday, and because of the looming weekly cycle rollover, there's the potential for the decline to continue without a bounce. This appears the less-likely/more-bearish scenario to me- a "crash" in the intraday cycles. Until price turns up, however, bottom-picking is a dangerous game. The first sign of trouble for bears will be a break above 36.70, which is declining trendline support from Friday and current 72 SMA resistance. 30 min channel support is at 36.52, daily S1 at 36.46.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 8:55:08 AM

Friday, the OEX punched up through the 200-sma again, but fell back, closing near the bottom of Thursday's range. As long as the OEX is closing beneath the 200-sma and -ema, and below daily Keltner resistance from 562.71-564.15, traditional and Keltner analysis suggests that it's still time to sell rallies, as would have been a workable tactic Friday. The daily Keltner chart suggests that the OEX is vulnerable to 550.52, although other charts suggest that 555-556 may provide strong support. Bears need to have profit-protecting plans in place if that level is tested.

At Friday's close, the 30-minute Keltner channels suggested that a bounce could be in the works before any test of the 555-556 or 550-551, but futures this morning suggest otherwise. If the OEX heads lower immediately, watch for possible support at Thursday's low, at 557.76. Those wanting a new bearish entry would like to see a bounce-and-rollover entry, since there's potential strong support in the 555-556 zone, and that wouldn't give much movement after a break of Thursday's low.

What if the cash market doesn't follow through on the weakness seen in futures? As long as the OEX is closing 30-minute periods above the Keltner line currently at 559.09, the 30-minute Keltner chart suggests that it might bounce toward 560.30-561.39 or perhaps even as high as 563.90-564.33. If the bounce does happen, watch for another for a new bearish entry.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 8:46:20 AM

Session high for August crude oil, +.75 at 59.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 8:32:12 AM

Bonds are edging higher in negative territory, with TNX currently quoted +1.5 bps at 4.064%. QQQQ is printing a session low at 36.54, -.19, with August gold now down 3 at 425.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/5/2005 7:47:00 AM

Equities are down, ES trading 1196.50, NQ 1495, YM 10308 and QQQQ -.11 at 36.62. Gold is down 1.90 to 426.90, silver -.045 to 6.803, ten year notes -11/32 to 112 13/32 and crude oil is up .575 to 59.325.

We await the 10AM release of May Factory Orders, est. 3.0%.

Linda Piazza : 7/5/2005 7:06:43 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei dropped Tuesday, with more Asian markets trading lower than higher. The same is true of European markets this morning. Our futures have moved lower. As of 6:53 EST, gold was down $2.20, and crude, up $0.53 to $59.28. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei opened slightly underwater Tuesday morning, and soon bounced into positive territory. It spent about an hour testing the flat-line level before retreating again, eventually closing lower by 34.85 points or 0.30%, at 11,616.70. Aeon Co. Ltd. reported earnings and saw a strong gain after saying that operating profit climbed 25% in the quarter.

Most other Asian markets declined. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.62%, and South Korea's Kospi eased 0.28%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.07%. Hong Kong's banks raised their lending rates by a half point, a larger-than-expected jump, and the Hang Seng fell 0.37%. China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.79%.

European markets are mixed, but with more markets down than up. Some blame the rise in crude costs as responsible for European weakness. In addition, rumors circulate through the forex market that the ECB may be closer to another rate hike than an easing, due mostly to the feared results of higher crude prices on inflation, although no hike is anticipated in the near term. Some speculate that the source may be a high-up ECB official, but this remains a rumor. May's Eurozone retail trade figure was stronger than economists had predicted, rising 1.1% month-over-month against April's revised-higher 1.1%. The annualized rate rose to 2%, but spending in the April/May period still declined 0.6% below the average seen in the first quarter.

Airlines declined in early trading as did most auto manufacturers. Renault SA was slightly higher in early European trade after announcing that first half sales were 3.6% higher, with sales in other regions making up for an 0.8% sales decline in Western Europe. The climb in crude costs strengthened European oil majors, although gains were modest early in the day. BP said that its Q2 production will remain essentially flat with the previous quarter's production. Telecoms were mixed after J.P. Morgan upgraded the European telecom services sector to a neutral rating. The firm suggested that Vodafone Group PLC, Deutsche Telekom and Telenor ASA could surprise to the upside. In company-specific news, bank ABN Amro dropped after the company announced its intention to buy the Priory Group, a group that owns psychiatric hospitals and schools.

As of 6:51 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 1.20 points or 0.02%, to trade at 5,185.50. The CAC 40 had lost 20.02 points or 0.47%, to 4,244.58. The DAX had gained 34.47 points or 0.75%, to trade at 4,588.94.

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