Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 7/8/2005 1:22:36 AM

Other Asia/Pacific markets are mixed with +/- 0.50% changes.

Jeff Bailey : 7/8/2005 1:21:39 AM

India's BSE 30 is up 89 points, or +1.25% at 7,234 and closing in on its bullish vertical count of 7,400.00 Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/8/2005 1:19:36 AM

Hang Seng ($HSI) is off 81 points, or -0.58% at 13,950 Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/8/2005 1:18:25 AM

Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) down 17 points, or -1.64% at 1,021.55. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/8/2005 1:12:15 AM

ym05u currently up 15 at 10,348. H/L so far has been 10,365/10,345

Jeff Bailey : 7/8/2005 1:10:13 AM

e-mini S&P (es05u) currently up 2.00 at 1,204.75. H/L so far has been 1,206.75/1,202.50

Jeff Bailey : 7/8/2005 1:07:55 AM

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05u) currently up 2.50 at 1,515.00. H/L so far has been 1,518.50/1,512.00

Jeff Bailey : 7/8/2005 1:06:17 AM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.58 and set for program selling at $+2.12.

OI Technical Staff : 7/7/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 9:41:09 PM

Balanced Benchmark ... 4-sessions into Q3, closing values prior to nonfarm payroll at this Link ... Total "Cost" is as close as I could get to what we had on 06/30/05. Reallocated that amount equally across the 12 different asset classes.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 9:27:34 PM

Hurricane Dennis ... Other analysts in the MM may have already noted this today, but Dennis was upgraded to "Hurricane" status earlier today. Here's the Link to the National Hurricane Center.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 9:29:21 PM

Weekly EIA Statistics found at this Link ... Crude Oil Stockpiles down 1.8% over last month. Crude Oil Stockpiles down 1.5% last 2 months. Crude Oil Stocks up 1.3% last 3 months.

At this time last year, Crude Oil Stockpiles were 305,027 (Thousand Barrels).

$1 box chart of $WTIC at this Link . "7" is early July on PnF chart.

It's what Crude Oil Stockpiles and Oil's price is doing that is so perplexing.

At this time last year, Total Gasoline Stockpiles were 206,108 (Thousand Barrels).

At this time last year, Total Distillate Stockpiles were 114,024 (Thousand Barrels).

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 8:05:07 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.14 +0.45% Link .... last tick in extended session was $103.20.

Dow Industials Bullish % (BPINDU) Link still "bear correction" status at 70.00%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 8:00:59 PM

Alcoa (AA) $26.09 +0.34% Link ... last tick in extended session was higher at $26.80 after the aluminum giant reported quarterly net income of $460 million, or $0.52 per share, compared to $404 million, or $0.46 per share in the same period last year. Revenue came in at $6.8 billion, up from $6.1 billion last year.

"very solid and better than expected, certainly a positive for '06 and beyond," said analyst Lloyd O'Carroll of BB&T Capital Markets.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 7:25:20 PM

Newmont Mining (NEM) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 7:24:00 PM

Placer Dome (PDG) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 7:46:15 PM

Bema Gold (BGO) at this Link ... non-conventional $0.05 box chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 7:31:54 PM

Continuous Gold ($GOLD) at this Link .... conventional $4 box PnF chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 7:09:00 PM

StreetTracks Gold Trust (GLD) $42.36 +0.26% ... updated daily interval bar chart at this Link ... bulls defended where they had to.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 6:46:46 PM

Pivot Matrix for Friday at this Link ... the BIX.X went one way, then they bounced, while the SOX at WEEKLY R2 could have my QQQQ short getting trounced. Noting the penny at QQQQ Weekly R1 and today's high, and the SPY at MONTHLY Pivot.

Tomorrow morning, I think a QQQQ trader (long or short) best served to sit tight if they can between DAILY S1 and DAILY R1.

SPY morning low didn't quite catch those large blocks from 04/05/05. MACD on Daily Interval bar chart trying to curl back up just above zero.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 5:46:22 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 5:26:02 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 5:06:49 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Swing traded short a full position in the QQQQ at $36.78, stop $37.10, target $36.09.

Closed out 1/2 of the QQQQ short just prior to the close at $37.07 (see pivot matrix and view "gap risk" DS1 and DR1) ($-0.29, -0.79%).

Closed out the 1/2 bullish position in EMC Corp. (EMC) at $14.30 ($+0.49, or +3.55%).

Swing trade shorted 1/2 position in shares of Placer Dome (PDG) at $15.25, stop $15.55, target $14.60.

Adjustments to 1/2 bearish position in Bema Gold (BGO) ... lowered target to $2.10, lowered stop to $2.29.

Tab Gilles : 7/7/2005 4:27:27 PM

Biotech ($BTK) Looks strong. Link

$BTK vs. $DRG Link

Murphy Oil (MUR) Even with the news on earning I posted earlier this morning, $55 still proving to be stiff resistance. Even though it finally closed over $55 on good volume today. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 4:10:49 PM

Bearish swing trade lower stop alert ... on the remaining short in Bema Gold (BGO) $2.25 -0.88% ... to $2.29.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 4:04:03 PM

QQQQ $37.06 +0.35% ... DAILY Pivot Levels for tomorrow ... $36.36, $36.71, Piv = $36.90, $37.25, $37.44

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 4:00:50 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $102.96, SPY $119.70

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 4:00:32 PM

For our readers in the U.K., we have not forgotten your suffering today as we commented on the markets. Our thoughts are with you as you enter the evening of the day in which these attacks have occurred.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 3:59:33 PM

The OEX will likely end the day at/just below its 200-ema, a little further below its 200-sma.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 3:57:52 PM

Bearish swing trade close out 1/2 position alert I want to close out at least 1/2 of the QQQQ short position before the close. Regardless if it trades $37.10. QQQQ $37.07 here

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 3:53:04 PM

On the OEX's daily chart, the next Keltner resistance is at 561.41. The OEX punched down to first Keltner support on that chart and bounced from it, but on a daily view the OEX remains vulnerable to more declines as long as it cannot produce daily closes above 561.40 at least, and preferably above 563.60. The strong bounce today may be suggesting that the OEX will attempt another test of that Keltner resistance, though, but I think market participants have to get away from the markets today, see how matters worked out, and make decisions before we know for sure.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 3:49:03 PM

Session high for NQ here at 1514, QQQQ still holding below 37.08.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 3:47:05 PM

TRIN 1.15 -24.83% .... WEEKLY Pivot Levels .. -0.13, 0.43, Piv= 1.17, 1.75, 2.49. May need these for tomorrow based on this morning's 3.62 high measure.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 3:44:38 PM

Strange. Since 6/24, the OEX has built a pattern of strong move, doji day, strong move, doji day, etc. Yesterday was an exception with a strong move following a strong move without an intervening doji. Looks as if today may produce another doji after yesterday's strong move, though, returning to the pattern. So do we trust this as the sign that the OEX is going to recover now, for good, and just keep climbing?

I don't think so. It may, but as I said recently, we haven't yet had the barest of confirmations: a daily close back above the important 100-sma. We may have had a sign that the OEX is ready to try bouncing higher again within its most recent consolidation pattern, but, despite that bullish long lower shadow, I'm not confident of that. The OEX also looks as if it's going to close near the bottom of the recent consolidation pattern, stopping there and showing that the former support may now be resistance. The climb could still be a bear flag. So there's mixed evidence here. All I can conclude for sure is that the OEX is continuing that pattern.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 3:38:42 PM

For reference, the OEX's 200-ema is at 559.48 and the 200-sma is at 560.79.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 3:38:39 PM

Merck (MRK) $29.96 -1.96% Link ... breaks to 4-month lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 3:33:51 PM

Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,197.34, DIA $102.96, QQQQ $37.06

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 3:33:10 PM

So far, the Wilshire 5000 hasn't been able to regain 12,000. While bears have some worrisome chart characteristics to confront, bulls would probably have preferred that the Wilshire regain 12,000. It's at 11,953.42 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 3:31:33 PM

RLX hasn't broken out of its diamond shape.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 3:31:20 PM

Today's much lower low and sharp reversal back into yesterday's range might have set a lower low and lower high so far, but the tall doji hammer on the daily chart is a bullish formation, confirmed by the heavy volume today (106M shares so far compared with yesterday's sub-80M total). Cycle-wise, QQQQ's in a window for a daily cycle low, and the doji hammer with heavy volume qualifies as a potential candidate.

On an intraday basis, the 30 min cycle upphase off this morning's low is approaching overbought territory but still has room to run, and the 60 min cycle has turned up as well. Overall, the picture is mixed. A break above yesterday's high should generate the first buy signals on the daily cycle, while a lower high before the next 30 and 60 min downphase would set us up for a retest of today's low. Current levels are choppy, as they've been all week, and there's a slew of economic data set for release tomorrow AM. But for now, the intraday bias remains to the upside, and the daily cycle downphase is stalling near the bottom of its range.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 3:30:08 PM

When I look at an intraday chart for the OEX, I can see a possible bear flag. The OEX demonstrably has trouble with each Fib level off that decline off yesterday's high, making the climb look like a laborious one, a corrective move. When I look at the daily chart, the candle that's printing so far has nothing of the bear about it, not with that long lower shadow springing up from support.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 3:21:42 PM

Here's the OEX's climb off the day's low, inside a rising regression channel, and with respect to this morning's gap and the Fib levels off the steep decline. This flag is a bit wider than bears would like to see it be, but its retracement hasn't covered so much ground that it invalidates the idea that it could be a bear flag. Not yet. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 3:17:55 PM

QQQQ $37.00 +0.18% ... keeps knocking on the door at $37.08.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 3:17:14 PM

NASDAQ Comp. (COMPX) back to test the 2,076 level. Updated daily interval bar chart from Wednesday Wraps at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 3:13:12 PM

The Dow has pushed above the ascending trendline off the 6/27 low, although it may be currently pulling back to that trendline, now at about 10,282.30 if I've placed the cursor correctly. It really as if the markets were striving all day to get back to where they were at yesterday's close, to get that chance to do over what should have been the start of the day. Impressive, if the markets end the day here, and those long lower shadows will be, too. Remember, though, that many indices are just being moved back into recent consolidation zones. That's certainly true of the OEX, now at the bottom of the most recent consolidation zone.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 3:12:20 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 3:06:44 PM

OEX pushed high enough to invalidate that potential inverse H&S, back to test the 50% retracement of the decline off yesterday's high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 3:04:35 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,195.00, DIA $102.85, QQQQ $37.00

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 3:02:04 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 3:01:58 PM

QQQQ is breaking back above 36.95, with the wavelet oscillator showing a bullish divergence. This could be signalling possible trouble for the so far tractionless short cycle downphase. A break above the session high would confirm it, whipsawing the oscillators back up. QQQQ never broke below the 72 SMA when it tested it 15 minutes ago. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 3:01:45 PM

RUT back inside this morning's gap after having briefly moved above it.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 2:59:22 PM

Ten year treasuries continued their drift off the morning highs, and TNX is up to a 4.4 bp loss for the day at 4.031% with one minute left in the cash session. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 2:51:07 PM

OEX definitely breaking down out of the possible bear flag after having approached but not touched a 50% retracement of the decline off yesterday's high. All 60-minute candle bodies actually formed below the 38.2% retracement with only candle shadows piercing that level. Remember that there's a potential H&S on the five-minute chart, still lacking a right shoulder, so there's still potential for a rise into a right shoulder formation from the support the OEX just tested.

Those aggressive traders who might have entered a bearish play as the OEX retested this week's support from the underside definitely need to see a new LOD to confirm any supposed bear flag breakdown, and you definitely don't want to see the day end with these long lower shadows on the daily candles of many indices, including the OEX.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 2:43:12 PM

There's a potential H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart, still lacking a right shoulder. The five-minute Keltner chart shows potentially significant resistance just above the OEX's current level, though, so that I'm not sure how far the OEX will rise before it dips toward a test of the neckline level near 556.25.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 2:34:19 PM

Volume breadth has shifted back to bearish for QQQQ, declining volume leading 1.5:1 as price fails from a lower high at 36.95. Bears need a break below the 72 SMA at 36.84, with the 30 min channel upphase already stalling.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 2:32:03 PM

Dow still pausing beneath the ascending trendline off the 6/27 low. The 60-minute pattern just shows a sideways trading pattern after the morning's bounce, with nothing particularly telling as to next direction.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 2:27:35 PM

OEX still below the 38.2% retracement of the climb, but perhaps rising to test it again. The 15-minute Keltner lines are somewhat scrambled, with the OEX clinging to a Keltner line now at 556.97 rather than finding support or resistance at that line. Next resistance 558.09-558.36, and next support 555.60-555.83.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 2:22:43 PM

August crude oil is up to a .725 loss at 60.60 here. Updated 50 tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 2:17:38 PM

The OEX could be breaking below the bear flag's support, but any such breakdown, if it's occurring, is tentative as yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 2:16:28 PM

QQQQ tests short cycle channel support here at 36.90, the short cycle indicators beginning to roll over. 72 SMA support is next at 36.82.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 2:16:06 PM

Next potential Keltner support on the OEX at 555.65-555.93. Below that, it's from the day's low to 554.35.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 2:13:15 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 2:09:53 PM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $38.07 -0.47% ... has held WEEKLY S1 $37.99, but if that's lost, vulnerable to $37.05.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 2:08:44 PM

OEX back below the 38.2% retracement of the decline off yesterday's high. Nothing definitive happening yet.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 3:00:09 PM

Swing trade short alert ... for 1/2 bearish position in shares of Placer Dome (PDG) $15.25 +1.19% Link here, stop $15.55, target $14.60.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 2:01:39 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 1:56:25 PM

The Dow has been testing the ascending trendline off the 6/27 low, testing it form the underside after violating it this morning. That trendline is now at about 10,278. The OEX is testing today's gap, but it doesn't have a nicely defined rising trendline off recent lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 1:55:19 PM

QQQQ is showing a higher price high against a (so-far) lower oscillator high for the short cycle indicators (1st indicator pane below volume. Bulls need to see short cycle channel support at 36.90 hold if tested. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 1:51:34 PM

Tall white candle on the RUT's last 15-minute candle. There's a small downturn so far this 15-minute period, but nothing too pronounced, and the RUT is now slightly above yesterday's close.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 1:49:09 PM

August gold is down a dime at 424.40, off a low of 423, with HUI and XAU ticking negative here. Crude oil is up to a 1.85 loss at 59.425.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 1:44:59 PM

QQQQ $37.02 +0.24% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 1:44:53 PM

Volume breadth goes positive 1.32:1 on the Nasdaq, still negative 1.51:1 on the NYSE. QQQQ 30 min channel resistance rises to 37.10, but it should continue to rise so long as price holds north of the 72 SMA at 36.80.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 1:44:27 PM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 1,034.91 +3.11% ... all-time highs here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 1:42:45 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $102.81 +0.13% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 1:42:17 PM

QQQQ $37.05 +0.32% ... above DAILY Pivot here.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 1:41:53 PM

OEX between the 38.2 and 50% retracement of the decline off yesterday's high. The 50% retracement is at 558.53 and the 61.8% at 559.98.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 1:34:47 PM

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 1:33:39 PM

Markets appear to be asking for do-overs, climbing back as close as possible to yesterday's close, to see if they really wanted to decline like that. That's what we're going to find out the rest of the afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 1:33:36 PM

QQQQ $36.99 +0.16% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 1:33:12 PM

QQQQ tests the descending resistance/possible reverse h&s neckline: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 1:31:16 PM

The BIX is balancing right at the 100-sma after that average has provided support on daily closes since 5/18, having provided resistance for several months previous to that. I tell you what: bears don't want to see the markets close today with these long lower shadows showing how indices sprang up from their LOD's. The BIX's lower shadow is a long one, but the day is far from over.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 1:19:25 PM

Volume breadth is still negative but well off its worst levels of the session, declining volume currently leading 2.18:1 on the NYSE and 1.75:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ is holding above the daily pivot, with the 72 SMA turning up within the rising 30 min channel. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 1:19:11 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 1:18:28 PM

TRAN testing 3500, at 3500.95 as I type. The 200-sma is at 3499.82, to it's hanging just at that 20-ema.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 1:15:53 PM

OEX still within a potential bear flag, still under 557-558-ish resistance, but possibly preparing to retest that resistance. To remind readers, the 50% retracement of the drop off yesterday's high is at about 558.74.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 1:10:46 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 1:04:09 PM

Session low for August gold here, back to flat at 424.50, with August crude oil -2.025 or 3.3% at 59.25.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 1:03:23 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 1:01:14 PM

Keane Inc. (KEA) $13.65 -1.30% ... decent looking short/put candidate below 200-day SMA. Ciber (CBR) $7.45 -7.22% ... hit lower.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 1:00:16 PM

In my 12:35 post, I mentioned a potential OEX evening-star reversal pattern on the 15-minute chart. The OEX didn't quite drop far enough to complete a classic evening star formation, but it's trying to remedy that situation now. This action takes place below the 557-558 potential new resistance zone. Temporarily at least, the OEX is finding support on 15-minute closes at a Keltner line currently at 556.50, with further support trying to firm up below the OEX. The OEX is also pausing at/beneath the 38.2% retracement off yesterday's high, with that Fib level at 557.50. The 50% retracement is at about 558.74, and the 61.8% at 559.98. Bears would prefer that the OEX remain below the 50% retracement as it climbs in a possible bear flag. They'd actually prefer it stay below the 38.2% level. It's not until a 61.8% retracement is exceeded, though, that we can be sure that this is anything other than a bear flag climb.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 12:48:39 PM

QQQQ pulls back from its 30 min channel break. A bounce from a higher low could set up a potential reverse h&s below descending resistance on the 3 min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 12:45:38 PM

QQQQ $36.88 -0.13% ... back to test WEEKLY Pivot. Session high so far has been $37.00.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 12:44:12 PM

The OEX's daily Keltner chart suggests that as long as it's producing daily closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 561.23, it remains vulnerable to a decline to 549.53. Wen I first began mentioning that target last week, it seemed nearly impossible, didn't it? Jeff has mentioned this phenomenon before, but have you noticed that some of these world events sometimes precipitate what charts were setting up to show, almost as if they were predicting that there would be an event? (I don't know if that would be Jeff's interpretation, so don't want to put words in his mouth, but just give him credit for noticing the phenomenon.) I'm certainly not suggesting some kind of psychic hocus pocus, either, but rather suggesting that the events push markets into doing what they were vulnerable to doing anyway, but sometimes it sure seems the other way around, doesn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 12:44:07 PM

Charles Schwab (SCH) $12.01 +0.33% ... released for trade. Company saying it is not considering company sale. Shares rose as high as $13.80 earlier this morning amid continued speculation that it may be a takeover target.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 12:38:06 PM

Headlines:

GOV. PATAKI: SUBWAY, BUS USE AT NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY

GOV. PATAKI: N.Y. AT HEIGHTENED STATE OF ALERT

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 12:35:48 PM

The OEX pauses at the 557-558 level that was support for the recent consolidation zone. On the 15-minute chart, there's potential for an evening-star formation at this possible new resistance zone. Aggressive traders might consider this an opportunity to try a play, but with emotion-based trading being the guiding force today, you're just going to have to take a leap of faith to do that.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 12:32:50 PM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 1,027.12 +2.34% ... session high and looks to challenge 06/17/05 all-time high of 1,041.90.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 12:25:41 PM

The OEX hasn't yet risen into this morning's gap, but it's approaching the gap and the 558-ish level that was support for the earlier part of the week and over the last couple of weeks. No sign of a rollover yet, but this should be one place that we should look for one.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 12:23:01 PM

QQQQ $36.98 +0.16% ... reclaims WEEKLY Pivot. This took great bullishness in my opinion. Shorts could really come in much above DAILY Pivot ($37.02).

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 12:21:35 PM

It should be about time for the RLX to break one direction or another out of this diamond (sorry for the lack of drawing skills here) that forms along the RLX's gap support and resistance from January: Link These are typically bearish formations, but you wouldn't know that from the RLX's behavior today, positive early on, refusing to dip too low, and now positive again.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 12:20:57 PM

QQQQ's high at 36.98 just now briefly pierced the upper 30 min keltner channel, which often markets the spot of a short cycle top. The short cycle indicators are toppy, and a failure to reverse over the course of the next 10 minutes would indicate the beginning of a bullish trending move. Intraday bears need a break below the 72 SMA to stall the upturn in the 30 min cycle channel: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 12:16:17 PM

The SOX is bouncing up now, but still within the descending regression channel off the 6/02 high.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 12:13:05 PM

QQQQ has now filled the opening gap, printing above yesterday's lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 12:12:40 PM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link ... Not seeing excessive number of NL builds at this point.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 12:11:21 PM

As the OEX's 30-minute Keltner chart had suggested (see my 11:28 post), the OEX rose to test Keltner resistance, from 556.33-556.83 on 30-minute closes. This resistance has drifted lower since that first post and is no longer at the 557-558 historical support from earlier in the week, so this hasn't quite constituted a retest of that support yet to see if it holds as resistance. So far, candlesticks don't yet show signs that the OEX will roll over here, and the 15-minute chart show thinning resistance, but I wouldn't yet rule out that rollover possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 12:11:12 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 12:08:12 PM

Volume breadth has improved on both exchanges, declining volume now leading 3.17:1 on the NYSE and 2.25:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 12:03:35 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 12:03:33 PM

QQQQ chewing away at the pivot and resistance at yeterday's lows: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 12:00:03 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,190.25, DIA $102.38, QQQQ $36.83

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 11:59:06 AM

UK's FTSE 100 ($FTSE) 5,158.30 -1.36% ... 50-point box chart at this Link would have FTSE in good shape above it bullish vertical count.

25-box scale chart at this Link would show near-term support at 4,775.

Jane Fox : 7/7/2005 11:57:13 AM

Sorry Jonathan for the redo. I didn't see your post.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 11:56:42 AM

QQQQ volume has been notably lighter since the break above the descending triangle resistance line: Link . The descending 72 SMA resistance line is at 36.78 here, and a move above that level could attract some volume for a renewed assault on the session high and the 30 min channel downphase.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 11:56:55 AM

Several weeks ago, I commented that the Nasdaq might rattle around within the appropriate right-shoulder level for an inverse H&S visible on its daily and weekly chart before it settled on a final direction. Even with today's events, it's within that 2025-2100 range. Now, it's formed a possible regular H&S at the top of the climb, although it's a rather rough formation. Because it's rough, the neckline's location is difficult to determine.

Jane Fox : 7/7/2005 11:55:45 AM

Dateline CNN U.S. terror threat level to be raised to orange for mass transit network in wake of London bombings.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 11:54:51 AM

Headline:

U.S. UPS THREAT LEVEL TO ORANGE FOR TRANSPORT SECTOR

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 11:52:21 AM

August crude oil down .90 at 60.375, holding this 60.15-60.45 range.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 11:50:09 AM

QQQQ $36.71 -0.59% ... updated 60-min interval chart at this Link ... $36.50 looks to be important near-term support. Gut feel is market participants will be "defensive" into the weekend though.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 11:49:24 AM

Did the SPX confirm a H&S on its daily chart today? Depending on where you draw that neckline, it either did so or is currently testing that neckline. I would think that we would need to see a daily close below the 100-sma, currently at 1187.35, before we could believe that it had been confirmed.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 11:45:40 AM

RUT still consolidating near the 640-ish support, at 641.36 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 11:42:59 AM

Charles Schwab (SCH) $12.68 +5.84% ... halted for trade.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 11:39:35 AM

The OEX still consolidates, not yet making any move up toward that Keltner resistance now at 556.40-556.79. That resistance continues to descend toward the current OEX position, so that it might be possible that the OEX both continues to consolidate and tests that resistance, all at the same time.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 11:38:41 AM

QQQQ bad tick to 37.75. Quotetracker users can remove it by clicking the intraday chart and pressing CTRL-shift-H.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 11:38:23 AM

QQQQ $36.70 -0.62% ... updated 30-min interval chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 11:33:42 AM

The CBOE total put to call ratio is holding big gains, the most recent reading just out at 1.41 following an opening half-hour print of 1.5.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 11:29:24 AM

Volume breadth has improved for the NYSE and weakened for the Nasdaq, declining volume leading 4.66:1 on the NYSE and 3.05:1 on the Nasdaq, TRIN 1.6 and TRINQ at the high end of neutral at .93.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 11:28:48 AM

The OEX's 30-minute Keltner chart still suggests a possibility that the OEX could rise up to test 556.63-557.15 Keltner resistance. This would also be a test of historical support from this last couple of weeks. So far, it's still within the consolidation pattern from today, but the possibility of a higher bounce remains.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 11:24:31 AM

OEX still within that consolidation pattern at the bottom of the day's range, possibly a "b" distribution pattern or possibly an attempt to bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 11:22:25 AM

Southwest Air (LUV) $13.61 +0.14% ... in the green.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 11:16:54 AM

QQQQ has just gapped above what may have been descending triangle resistance at 36.66, but it will take a break of the daily pivot and 72 SMA lined up at the session high to confirm the bullish cross in the short cycle indicators. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 11:15:30 AM

The OEX is bouncing, but so far bouncing within the consolidation zone it's been establising this morning. The 15-minute chart suggests that as long as it's producing 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner lines currently at 555.83-556.57, it may keep testing today's support.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 11:15:15 AM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.33 and set for program selling at $+2.83.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 11:13:55 AM

Thunderstorms here, so if I disappear for a while, I'll be booting up my laptop using dialup.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 11:13:34 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,187.46, DIA $102.15, QQQQ $36.74

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 11:11:53 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 11:10:45 AM

The SOX is holding at mid-channel support on the 15-minute Keltner channels, with that support at 426.33 on 15-minute closes, and then down to 424.46. The SOX is being pressured lower by a Keltner line currently at 427.94, with next resistance at 428.45. It's being squeezed between support and resistance.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 11:06:57 AM

Lost electricity for a while and it knocked out my broadband, too. I'm booting back up.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 11:03:44 AM

QQQQ is testing its regular-session lows here at the short cycle channel bottom, as volume picks up on the decline, volume breadth now 3.35:1 negative for the Nasdaq. 30 min channel support is down to 36.40. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 11:03:30 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 10:58:04 AM

RUT testing 640-ish support, at 640.25 as I type. Late last week, the RUT was finding support nearer 639; hence, the "-ish" remark.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 10:55:44 AM

OEX still coiling at the 30-minute Keltner support line. See my 10:01 post for a chart.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 10:55:02 AM

SPY Option Chain found at this Link ... quick thoughts .... Implied volatility will have spiked this morning. Reason we see "trackers" (QQQQ, SPY, IWM) among 10 most active is institutions more likely to be shorting to hedge. If YOU are looking to buy options, go "in the money" to try and compensate for spike in volatility/premiums.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 10:51:30 AM

Marc, I show the VXO at 13.16 (per IB) and QQV +8.66% at 15.18 (per PcQuote).

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 10:48:16 AM

Volume breadth has weakened on the NYSE, now negative 5.93:1. Declining volume leads 2.82: 1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 10:46:35 AM

10 Most Active ... QQQQ $36.69 -0.64%, SPY $118.70 -0.65%, MSFT $24.57 -0.52%, INTC $26.25 -0.98%, CSCO $18.62 -1.06%, IWM $63.88 -0.80%, AMGN $65.81 +3.49%, SIRI $6.58 -0.90%, SEBL $8.81 -1.78%, ORCL $13.29 -0.22%

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 10:43:04 AM

The OEX consolidates in what looks like another "b" distribution pattern on its 15-minute chart. What troubles me, though, is that snapping a Fib bracket from yesterday's high to today's low shows yesterday's "b" distribution pattern (on the 15-minute chart, not the big one on the daily) right at the 50% mark. These formations tend to form halfway through a drop, so that's not a surprise, but then is the current one truly another "b" distribution pattern or is this a bottoming one? Has the drop met the target predicted yesterday? As others have noted and as I've said, too, today's trading might be at least in part emotion-based, and chart characteristics might not be completely trustworthy. I'm just looking for signs to help those already in bearish plays make decisions.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 10:38:06 AM

QQQQ's short cycle channel is trying to stabilize in its trending downphase, while 30 min channel support drops lower, to 36.50. Bulls need a break above the 72 SMA at 36.92 to stall the ongoing intraday downphases, with the first sign of trouble for bears a break above the daily pivot at 36.83.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 10:36:06 AM

RLX negative, but only modestly so. It's still within the diamond shape at the top of its climb off the April low, currently trading inside the gap from January.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 10:33:33 AM

Headlines:

U.S. DISTILLATE STKS UP 4 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

U.S. GASOLINE STKS DOWN 900,000 BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

U.S. CRUDE STKS DOWN 3.6 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 10:33:12 AM

Nymex crude oil is down .70 at 60.625. 50 tick chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 10:31:57 AM

From the inventory report:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 3.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 324.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels last week, putting them near the upper end of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories jumped by 4.0 million barrels last week, and are now in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels last week, placing them near the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 10:31:23 AM

The OEX is maintaining its breakdown status on the 15-minute chart. It's coiling at/just below the rising trendline off the April low. It could be steadying ahead of a rise or about to roll over beneath that trendline, but chart evidence is less credible than usual today, so I hesitate to guess.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 10:28:38 AM

Awaiting the petrol report in the coming minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 10:28:14 AM

Bullish swing trade exit alert for EMC Corp. (EMC) $14.30 -1.17% here.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 10:27:00 AM

The only corroboration I can find of CNBC's reporting that OPEC suggests that it cannot ramp up production enough to meet demand (as Jim has been telling us for a long, long while) is a forex news source. That report is that Nigeria's oil minister stated that OPEC had already added the second 500,000 barrels per day increase and that most OPEC member nations were already pumping "flat out," according to this source. I'm not sure if that report was being referenced this morning or if there's something else I'm missing. The OPEC website isn't turning up anything.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 10:20:56 AM

Ten year notes continue to weaken off their earlier highs, TNX up to a 6.4 bp loss at 4.011%. Gold is down as well, now +1.6 at 426.10, off a high of 430.30 with HUI +.58% at 199.38, XAU +.25% at 92.00.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 10:20:06 AM

Bearish swing trade lower target alert ... for Bema Gold (BGO) $2.28 +0.44% ... to $2.10 from $2.21. Stop remains $2.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 10:19:26 AM

Back. QQQQ volume has just passed the halfway mark to yesterday's 79.4M shares, with breadth negative 4.98:1 on the NYSE and 2.71:1 on the Nasdaq. The TRIN is in neutral bear territory at 1.49, TRINQ neutral at .84. The Nasdaq strength is impressive- looks like GOOG qualifies as for money in a "flight to safety," currently +.47% at 292.95.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 10:18:30 AM

OEX still testing that rising trendline off the April low. Those in bearish positions overnight had ample time to consider whether they would take automatic partial or full profit at this possible support level. That's a hard decision, I know, as a failure here would set up a 549-552 downside target, but there's just no guarantee there will be such a further breakdown. As I mentioned earlier this morning, entering a call play on thoughts of a possible bounce is absolutely not my kind of play, however, and not one that I would advise readers to try. The OEX has also not offered new bearish entries as it sits at this support level. That will possibly be a shame, since that lower value is possible, but Keltner evidence is scrambled and inventories are still due and there's emotion-based trading today anyway, and . . . you get the picture. Congratulations if you held a put play overnight, but the rest should probably just wait this out.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 10:14:33 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 10:14:04 AM

A price of 4,500 for a 4-star hotel room in London, ordinarily 400-500, according to a CNBC Europe commentator who just appeared on CNBC. Shall we say "gouging"?

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 10:11:25 AM

The Wilshire 5000 plunged to 15-minute Keltner support. So far, that support, currently at 11,850.81 appears to be holding. Next strong resistance at 11,910 according to the 15-minute Keltner chart, but that resistance is still moving sharply lower. The Wilshire 5000 is at 11,863.17 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 10:10:49 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 10:08:34 AM

The TRAN often zooms one direction or the other before the inventories number, and it has declined this morning, but it did not fall below Tuesday's LOD at 3473.33. The TRAN is at 3488.69 as I type. Given the storms in or approaching the Gulf of Mexico and the events last night (OPEC hinting that they won't be able to keep up with production, according to a CNBC interpretation this morning) and today, I'm frankly surprised that the TRAN hasn't plummeted further.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 10:05:16 AM

RLX no longer positive, but only modestly lower.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 10:04:34 AM

RUT dropping toward 640-ish potential support, at 641.13 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 10:01:36 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 10:01:12 AM

Here's a look at the OEX's 30-minute Keltner chart, showing that the OEX currently tests Keltner support that has mostly held since late June. Link That's no guarantee that it will hold this time, of course, but this does join with other levels of support, making a bounce possible. This is a difficult level to gauge, however, as a breakdown here could send the OEX to 549-552. The just-completed 30-minute close suggests that could happen, but bounce potential remains. Those in current bearish positions have a difficult decision to make, and since trading today may be unpredictable, I'm not going to make predictions.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 9:58:56 AM

VIX.X 13.46 +9.69% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.29, 11.77, Piv= 12.02, 12.49, 12.74.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 9:56:35 AM

The Fed announces a 10.25B overnight repo to replace the 13B remaining, for a 2.75B net drain on the day.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 9:56:08 AM

The OEX is maintaining its breakdown level on the 15-minute Keltner chart, and is so far still sitting on the ascending trendline off the April low.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 9:55:10 AM

SOX coming down again to test the day's low.

Jane Fox : 7/7/2005 9:54:39 AM

Dateline CNN Death toll in London blasts at least 40, U.S. sources say, citing British government as source.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 9:53:29 AM

Headline:

HOMELAND SECURITY HEAD: NO SIGN ATTACK PLANNED FOR U.S.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 9:53:19 AM

Stuck on call here, watching QQQQ test the daily pivot and yesterday's lows from below. Current high is 36.82, with 72 SMA resistance above at 37.02: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 9:52:40 AM

This morning, the BIX plummeted below its 100-sma. As with the OEX, this average has been important to the BIX, and, unlike the OEX, it has held above that average until now. This morning, the BIX also dropped from the 200-ema. Compared to the RLX, with both important to OEX performance, the BIX is much weaker. Will the OEX get pulled in different directions?

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 9:51:27 AM

Bearish swing trade short alert .... for the QQQQ $36.78 here, stop $37.10, target $36.09.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 9:50:22 AM

Wow. Surprisingly (to me, at least), the RLX is slightly positive, if only by a few cents.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 9:47:16 AM

RUT gapped way down, to 30-minute mid-channel support near 642.27.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 9:46:18 AM

The OEX has bounced back above the rising trendline off the April low. If it keeps bouncing, we'll get an idea of whether the support from the last two weeks, beginning at about 557.60 and up to the 200-ema and -sma's, will now serve as resistance. So far, though, it's holding just above that rising trendline, so it's a little preliminary to talk about a further bounce. So far, it's just retesting that trendline.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 9:43:31 AM

Charts moving slow, of course. SOX down, but now springing up from the day's low. First Keltner resistance on the 30-minute chart is at 430.54 and bears would like to see that hold on 30-minute closes. This morning, the SOX pierced but then bounced back above the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the 6/23 high, with that Fib level at 428.82.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 9:41:50 AM

A sharp move higher from the morning's gap down as price returns to the 30 min channel bottom. Updated 3 min chart (pre-market data removed) at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 9:40:12 AM

The OEX has moved below the rising trendline off the April low, but trying to bounce up toward that trendline again as I type. That trendline hits just above 555.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 9:35:15 AM

OEX now hitting the rising trendline off the April low. Bears had lots of time premarket to consider how they would react to this test, so put your plan into effect, whatever it was. As Mark Davis has said on the Futures side and as my earlier post suggested, I don't think this is a time for new entries, but those of you already in bearish plays need to consider how you'll protect profits. Do not let a winning trade turn into a losing one, no matter what else you do.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 9:31:23 AM

As often happens, the OEX doesn't open as low as futures had led one to expect, but it does break down out of the recent consolidation pattern and head toward the 555-556 first support zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 9:30:44 AM

I'll be laying off these headlines unless it's something major. Last instalment:

NYSE WILL OPEN AT 9:30 EST

NYSE: 'NO COMMENT' ON STATE OF BACKUP SYSTEMS

NYSE: 'NO COMMENT' ON LONDON BOMBINGS, SECURITY

23 DEAD AT KINGS CROSS SUBWAY STATION: SKY

9 DEAD AT EDGWARE RD, 7 AT ALDGATE, 2 AT RUSSEL SQ: SKY

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 9:20:22 AM

Headline:

AT LEAST 45 DEAD IN LONDON BUS, SUBWAY ATTACKS: SKY

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 9:17:23 AM

Headline:

WASHINGTON METRO: BOOSTING SECURITY ON TRAINS, BUSES

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 9:16:41 AM

August crude oil is up to a .625 loss at 60.65. The inventory report is scheduled for 10:30AM.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 9:14:39 AM

Ten year notes are pulling back within positive territory, TNX up to a 6.3 bp loss at 4.012%. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 9:07:16 AM

The gap lower has drilled the price below 30 and 60 min bollinger and keltner support, setting up QQQQ for a potential snap-back gap fill which appears to be already underway. Tuesday's opening low at 36.60 should act as first resistance, followed by the 72 SMA above it and the top of the opening gap at 36.89. The daily cycle downphase has obviously been reconfirmed, but uncertainty remains as to whether this was the terminal thrust of that downphase, often the sharpest part of a cycle's move. If so, a close above yesterday's high would be the tell.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 9:02:10 AM

Headlines:

NYC TRANSIT TELLS PASSENGERS TO BE EXTRA VIGILANT

NYC TRANSIT ALERT LEVEL UNCHANGED AT "ORANGE"

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 8:54:35 AM

The Fed announces a 9B 14-day repo to replace the 8B expiring. There remains 13B left to cover at the short term announcement at 10AM.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 8:46:05 AM

I've mentioned before that I typically write the first OEX update after the market close the previous day, away from market action but while I still have a clear memory of how the market moved. I revise the next morning according to economic releases and futures' reactions. This morning, of course, futures are way down due to the London explosions, but already well off their overnight lows. It's within the realm of possibility that the OEX might open near the support levels named below. Those already in bearish positions need to consider before the market opens what they'll do if the OEX should open at one of the two support zones named below, at 555-556 or 549-550. The 555-556 zone marks a rising trendline off the April low. The 549-550 zone marks the daily Keltner downside target and possible support. Some in bearish plays might want to take partial or full profit at the open, standing aside then to watch further developments. I know some of you out there might be considering automatic bullish entries on thoughts that markets will rebound, but that's just not my kind of play.

Here are the chart characteristics as they had developed as of yesterday's close. Yesterday, the OEX cycled down within its most recent consolidation pattern, ending near the bottom of that pattern. The daily Keltner chart showed a potential first downside target of 555.68 and a potential second target of 549.91. Both require that the OEX continue to produce daily closes below 562.44., but those Keltner lines will likely be scrambled by this morning's open, of course, and the Keltner resistance lines will move lower. As of last night, I would have added another requirement before we even started talking about further downside targets: that the OEX break through the support of its recent consolidation pattern. That looks likely and even probable this morning as that would mean breaking below the 557.76 low reached on 6/30. That does appear likely this morning at the open. The problem for bearish traders is that the breakdown could occur and the target be reached, all at the open.

For a long while, the OEX has tended to hunker down inside a consolidation zone, breaking out temporarily only to form another consolidation zone. All we knew for certain at yesterday's close was that the OEX had moved down through that zone, confirming the support because it stopped at or slightly above that support. That support could now be resistance. This time, as of yesterday's close, daily and 15-minute chart had already suggested that the OEX was vulnerable to more downside, at least from 555.68-556.82 and perhaps to that 549-550 level on the daily Keltner chart. It's possible that the 555-556 or maybe even the less-likely 549-550 zones might be touched near the open. The question now is whether that 558-561 zone that recently served as support will now be resistance on any bounce, something we can't know until it's tested. If already in a bearish position, you've got an opportunity to think about what you want to do before the market opens, a necessary task since markets might move quickly once the cash market opens. Do you want to take automatic full or partial profit? Or just ride it out with reset stops?

As CNBC commentators have been stressing about their own commentary, I'm far from cold-hearted about what's happening in London, and am mindful of lives being lost or terribly impacted. A dear friend moves to London with her family the end of this month, and she's on my mind this morning. However, my duty is also to the readers who might be in positions and needing input as to who those positions could be handled. Our subscribers are bright people, most well able to make decisions on their own, of course, but they deserve our input whether or not it sounds cold-hearted to talk about money matters. Money matters are never just about money, anyway. In our family, having enough money means enabling our daughter to stop working so that she can step up therapies and be there during hospitalizations and multiple doctor visits with her baby with many disabilities. It's not cold-hearted to talk about money and money preservation.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 8:42:24 AM

More from the Mayor's statement:

LONDON MAYOR: INDISCRIMINATE ATTEMPT AT MASS MURDER

LONDON MAYOR: PEOPLE WILL COME TO LONDON AFTER ATTACK

BRITISH FLAG FLYING AT HALF-MAST AT G8 IN SCOTLAND

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 8:39:30 AM

From the "Blinding Glimpse of the Obvious" dept:

LONDON MAYOR: THERE HAS BEEN LOSS OF LIFE

LONDON MAYOR LIVINGSTONE SPEAKING FROM SINGAPORE

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 8:34:52 AM

Headlines:

BUSH: BEEN IN TALKS WITH U.S. HOMELAND SECURITY

BUSH: EXPRESS CONDOLENCES TO PEOPLE OF LONDON

BUSH: SAYS U.S. TO BE "EXTRA VIGILANT"

BUSH: "CONTRAST COULDN'T BE CLEARER" BETWEEN G8, TERROR

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 8:32:45 AM

Equities are continuing their rise following the initial claims data, QQQQ up to a .51 loss at 36.42.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 8:31:24 AM

Headlines:

U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 7.000 TO 319,000

U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. INITIAL CLAIMS FALL 3,500 TO 320,500

U.S. WEEKLY CONTINUING CLAIMS FALL 16,00- TO 2.58 MLN

U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. CLAIMS LOWEST SINCE MARCH 5

RISE IN CLAIMS DUE TO AUTO RETOOLING, SCHOOLS: DOL

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 8:29:04 AM

It will be interesting to see what the Fed does today- it looks like Tuesday's huge net 14.5B repo add, easily one of the 3 largest days in years, was a few days early. The Fed has 22B expiring today, and may take advantage of the flight to bonds (TNX -7.9 bps to 3.996% here) to reduce some of its dealers' reserves. We'll find out during the next hour and a half. The 8B 14-day repo expiring this AM will be addressed first in the coming minutes.

Jane Fox : 7/7/2005 8:26:11 AM

Here's more on the blast in London. Dateline WSJ LONDON - Near simultaneous explosions rocked at least five London subway stations and ripped apart a double-decker bus at the morning rush hour Thursday, police said, killing at least two and injuring many more, and prompting officials to shut down the entire underground transport network.

A shaken British Prime Minister Tony Blair, hosting the G-8 leaders in Scotland, declared London had suffered "a series of terrorist attacks" and called it "barbaric." "There are people who have died and people who are injured," he said, adding that it was clear the attacks had been carried out to coincide with the summit.

The explosions caused officials to shut down the entire bus and underground transport network. They came a day after London was awarded the 2012 Olympics.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 8:11:47 AM

Headlines:

BUDAPEST, HUNGARY (AP) - Crude oil prices briefly surpassed $62 a barrel Thursday for the first time before turning sharply lower, amid heightened market uncertainty following a string of fatal explosions in the British capital.

Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 8:10:26 AM

Headline:

G8 STATEMENT: WON'T ALLOW VIOLENCE TO CHANGE SOCIETY

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 7:57:58 AM

Headlines:

UK HOME SEC: DON'T KNOW WHO OR WHICH ORGS RESPONSIBLE

UK HOME SEC: CONFIRMS FOUR EXPLOSIONS

UK HOME SEC: NUMBER OF TERRORIST ATTACKS IN LONDON

UK HOME SEC: AIR, RAILWAYS TO REMAIN OPEN

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 7:57:07 AM

The US Dollar Index (DX5U) dipped as low as 89.5 but has bounced back to the 89.90 level. There are bearish divergences forming on the daily cycle indicators, and a negative close today would likely be enough for them to confirm with fresh daily cycle sell signals. Link

August gold is up 4.3 at 428.80, off a high of 430.30. The daily cycle downphase is still in progress, and it will take roughly another 4 points of upside to stall it.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 7:55:30 AM

Good morning. The most important news this morning is that London has experienced at least six coordinated attacks on buses and subways, presumed terrorists attacks. More information can be found below. These attacks have driven European markets and our futures sharply lower, although our futures attempt a recovery off their overnight lows. Crude has fallen sharply as a result of the explosion, on the theory that fewer will be willing to travel by mass transit or perhaps just on relief that the terrorist attacks were not on production facilities. The Nikkei posted a loss, with other Asian markets mixed. As of 7:47 EST, gold was up $4.00, and crude, down $1.28 to $60.00. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Hurt by rising crude prices yesterday, before the U.K. terrorists attacks this morning drove down crude prices, the Nikkei opened in negative territory. After attempting to regain positive values, the Nikkei coiled in negative territory the rest of the day. It closed down 13.39 points or 0.12%, at 11,590.14. Oil-related issues rose, but that wasn't enough to prop up the Nikkei. NEC Corp. fell in early trading after yesterday's warning by NEC Electronics Corp. that slower sales of semiconductors would prompt a lowering of the company's full-year profit forecast, but it closed flat. UBS downgraded the company's rating as a result, also lowering Toshiba's rating. In other stock-related news, Toyota dropped. Many tech-related issues declined.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.15%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 0.77%. South Korea's central bank did not change its benchmark rate, continuing to focus on accommodative measures to support the economy. Earlier this week, the bank trimmed its estimate for 2005's GDP growth to 3.8% from the previous 4%. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.98%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.84%. China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.49%.

European markets dropped heavily as the result of the attacks in the U.K. These are apparently coordinated, rush-hour attacks on transportation, including buses and subways. Prime Minister Blair is leaving the G8 meeting, and has reportedly linked the attacks to the opening of the G8 meeting. So soon after the attacks, others mention other possibilities, and CNBC is reporting that Al Qaeda is claiming responsibility, but I must point out that there has been no time to examine this claim or the evidence produced in the explosions. Not much information is yet available about casualties.

In other news, the Bank of England left rates unchanged, and, as Jonathan has just reported, the ECB also left rates unchanged. Airlines released their load factors, with Air France-KLM and EasyJet reporting higher load factors. A French newspaper reported that PepsiCo had taken a 3% position in Group Danone. Deutsche Bank has reached an agreement to sell most of its stake in its former Morgan Grenfell fund management business to Aberdeen Asset Management. The maker of Smirnoff, Guinness and Johnnie Walker, U.K.beverage group Diageo, detailed costs it expects to incur.

As of 7:48 EST, European markets were off their day's lows. The FTSE 100 was down 121.90 points or 2.33%, to 5,107.70. The CAC 40 was lower by 111.76 points or 2.61%, to 4,168.19. The DAX was lower by 107.74 points or 2.33%, at 4,507.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 7:48:50 AM

Sept. euro futures are +.38% to 1.2004, off a low of 1.1943.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 7:48:14 AM

Headline:

ECB LEAVE KEY INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED

Jonathan Levinson : 7/7/2005 7:39:56 AM

As Linda notes, futures are down on news of explosions in London:

Tony Blair is to leave the G8 summit and return to London after a series of blasts on the capital's tube and bus network that has left at least two people dead.

The Prime Minister said it is "reasonably clear" that the six explosions at Tube stations and a blast on a bus in Tavistock Place were terrorist attacks.

He said it was "particularly barbaric" that the attacks happened when the world leaders were discussing aid to Africa, climate change and the environment.

Mr Blair said it was important to remember that "our determination to defend our values and way of life is greater than their determination to cause death and destruction of innocent people to impose extremism on the world".

Link

YM is trading 1182.5, NQ 1481, YM 10158 and QQQQ -.65 to 36.28. Gold is up 4.1 to 428.60, silver +.092 to 7.05, ten year notes +9/32 at 112 31/32 and crude oil -1.475 to 59.80.

We await the 8:30 release of initial claims, est. 320K, and at 10:30, the EIA petroleum inventory reports.

Linda Piazza : 7/7/2005 7:26:14 AM

My report will be late this morning, but presumed terrorists attacks in the U.K. have driven our futures sharply lower. Dow futures' lows are off their -200 point lows, but still down 145 points as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 3:45:25 AM

Various Commodity Futures at this Link ... Unleaded, Copper and Platinum inverting (longer-term PRICE below near-term PRICE).

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 3:28:14 AM

Apache Corp. (APA) $68.44 ... an "old" bar chart with a bull fit 38.2% from last last year. Bar chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 3:31:39 AM

August Nat. Gas (ng05q) at this Link ... Note: December contract (ng05z) $8.81 -0.47% settled at contract high of $8.852 on Wednesday. This December contract of Nat. Gas "looks like" the August Crude Oil chart.

Jeff Bailey : 7/7/2005 3:00:49 AM

Hanover Compressor (HC) $11.82 ... bar chart at this Link

Market Monitor Archives