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Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 12:34:45 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.02 and set for program selling at $+2.52.

OI Technical Staff : 7/11/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2005 8:47:16 PM

Equity pc ratio at .50 and only 5 days in the past month trading above 21 dma. Very extreme optimistic readings. I wonder how this will playout opex week. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 6:52:57 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 6:00:34 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... August Crude Oil futures (cl05q) settled down $0.71, or -1.19% at $58.92 on Monday. Trading up $0.45, or 0.76% in Tuesday's electronic session.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 5:50:11 PM

Horizon Health (HORC) $24.15 +0.62% Link ... reports Q3 EPS of $0.24 per diluted share. Sees fiscal 2005 EPS between $1.00 and $1.02 per share. Consensus currently $1.01. Details at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 5:35:58 PM

Bear Stearns (BSC) $106.78 -0.40% Link ... DJ - Sees Q2 net at $298.1 million, or $2.09 per share after increasing its legal reserves by $100 million in connection with possible settlement with regulators over improper mutual fund trading. Company had previously given Q2 guidance of $365.1 million, or $2.56 per share.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 5:30:25 PM

Frontier Airlines (FRNT) $11.49 +1.05% Link ... DJ - Seeks Dept. of Transportation (DOT) approval to serve Acapulco from Denver.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 5:26:57 PM

Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $50.66 +1.74% Link ... notable 52-weeker. Downgrades and upgrades either side of $50 past couple of sessions.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 5:20:09 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 4:56:02 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ...

Stopped out on the 1/2 bearish short in shares of Placer Dome (PDG) at $15.60 ($-0.35, or -2.30%).

Sold five (5) covered Internet Initiative calls IIJI July $10 Calls (IQD-GB) for $0.60, stop was if the underlying shares traded $9.50.

Stopped out/bought back the five (5) covered Internet Initiative calls IIJI July $10 Calls (IQD-GB) for $0.35 when the stock traded $9.50 ($+0.25 per contract, or +41.67%)

Stopped out of the underlying 1/2 position long in shares of Internet Initiative (IIJI) at $9.57 once the covered call position was closed ($+0.32, or +3.46%).

Day trade carry over for 1/2 bullish position in shares of Bonso Electronics (BNSO) at $6.21, stop $6.05, targeting $6.80.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 3:58:21 PM

OEX bulls, no appreciable pullbacks today, but make up your mind if you want to take partial profits as the OEX deals with 570 known resistance.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 3:56:33 PM

OEX not above 570 with only a few minutes to go. This was a sticking point for the OEX for a long while in May and early June.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 3:54:25 PM

SOX at 450.63, above the 2/28 intraday high and above 450. If bears want to drive it down before the close, they better do so quickly, but it's gaining into the close and not dropping.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 3:54:05 PM

Day trade carry over alert ... with IIJI profits booked, will carry over the 1/2 bullish position in shares of Bonso Electronics (BNSO) $6.21.

QQQQ $38.07 +0.79% .... 6-minutes to close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 3:51:12 PM

Swing trade long stop out alert ... for the underlying shares of Internet Initiative (IIJI) $9.57 +1.26% here. (traded stop of $9.50.)

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 3:50:07 PM

Swing trade covered call close out alert ... Close out the five (5) IIJI July $10 Calls (IQD-GB) at $0.35.

IIJI $35.50.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 3:49:36 PM

SOX approaching the HOD at 450.90, but not there yet, with the SOX at 450.24.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 3:47:34 PM

Internet Initiative (IIJI) $9.54 +0.95% ... giving up gains to the close.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 3:46:43 PM

SOX at 450.05.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 3:45:53 PM

SOX still trying for that 450 level by the close. I said earlier that this has to be a price magnet. SOX bulls also want to close the SOX above the 2/28 intraday high of 449.13. The SOX is at 449.79 as I type. Will it be above 450 or below 449.13?

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 3:45:32 PM

Session high for August crude oil at 59.25.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 3:44:52 PM

An impressive showing from the bulls, with the 30 min cycle downphase only reaching halfway down its range and the 60 min barely printing its sell signal before stalling. The daily cycle continues to point north, and while I was expecting a corrective set of intraday cycle downphases, I didn't expect them to be so short. Nonetheless, they have yet to reverse, and so there remains downside risk from these indicators. While a strong enough 60 min cycle downphase could stall the daily cycle upphase that has brought us all this strength, it's not looking very likely. So far, the daily cycle upphase has been very strong.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 3:44:02 PM

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05u) 30-minute interval chart found at this Link ... current tie with QQQQ.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 3:42:44 PM

The OEX today tests 570-ish daily Keltner resistance (actually a little above that) and the 61.8% retracement of the fall from the early March high into the April low, at about 570.01 and that 570 zone that proved so difficult for the OEX through late May and early June. Remember when it was a reliable trade to sell 570 and buy 566?

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 3:34:15 PM

QQQQ $38.04 +0.71% ... monitoring e-mini NASDAQ futures (nq05u) intra-day and it would appear to me that the QQQQ would close "bullish" if it can get a close above $38.08.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 3:30:30 PM

Dow drifting back toward its 100-sma again, with that average at 10,477.90. I had mentioned earlier that the TRAN looked vulnerable to a test of Keltner lines at 3609 and 3612, but those lines have moved up to 3610.81 and 3611.57, with the TRAN currently at 3613.92. The TRAN is testing those Kelner lines. Market bulls want to see the TRAN hold above them on 15-minute closes. Bears want the opposite. Further support at 3600-3602, down to perhaps 3595.45.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 3:29:18 PM

The neckline was just defended with a tall bullish engulfing on the 100 tick chart, but it has yet to break back above 38.00. Volume breadth is positive 2.62:1 on the NYSE, 3.74:1 on the Nasdaq with overall volume respectable at 86.6M QQQQ shares. It would take a complete wipeout from here to get volume breadth negative for the day.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 3:24:34 PM

So far, no sign of the three-minute 100/130-ema's slowing the RUT any, but it's just now dropping to the 130-ema, at 667.66, with the RUT at 667.79.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 3:22:15 PM

QQQQ is back below the 72 SMA and 4 cents above the rising head and shoulders neckline- if the long, asymmetrical bear flag just printed qualifies as a right shoulder. Volume is picking up, and needs to surge on the break to confirm the potential pattern. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 3:21:38 PM

RUT dropping below its three-minute 100-ema for the first time since Thursday. The three-minute 100/130-ema's are at 668.78 and 667.66, and bulls would like to see another bounce form these averages.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 3:17:37 PM

RLX coming down to test that rising trendline off the day's five-minute low. Five-minute 21-ema being tested again, with that average at 458.29 and the RLX at 458.23.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 3:16:21 PM

OEX testing 15-minute Keltner resistance, just above 15-minute support. In actuality, it's just tangled up in Keltner lines near the top of the range, without much guidance as to which direction the OEX might break. Just have to watch.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 3:13:32 PM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 3:12:54 PM

The RLX bounced right back across that ascending trendline off the day's five-minute lows. Bulls aren't through yet, at least not in the RLX.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 3:11:27 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 3:08:48 PM

RLX inching just barely below the ascending trendline that formed off the five-minute lows today. I'm not going to call that formation a potential H&S any longer, because the right shoulder area has been too-long elongated in time. This may be an important test for the RLX and, by extension, for the OEX. The five-minute 21-ema for the RLX is at 458.27, and that makes an acceptable below-the-trendline/above-the-trendline benchmark. The RLX is at 458.08 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 3:04:06 PM

Lansdstar Systems (LSTR) $31.67 +1.08% Link ... reclaims its 06/08/05 gap from Bear Stearns downgrade. Looks a little reverse h/s-ish.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 3:02:33 PM

Forgot to mention something I was going to say earlier. While the SOX today is testing daily Keltner resistance that usually holds, other than day or two breaches, it also did something a bit more bullish. It opened at and then climbed from the descending trendline off the 12/03 high. Many indices have zoomed after breaking above similar descending trendlines. The SOX has also broken above the 2/28 intraday high of 449.13, although not by much. SOX bulls, I would think, would desperately like to see the SOX close above that 2/28 intraday high and above 450, if possible. I wouldn't suggest testing this with a bearish play--not without any confirmation that's a good idea, at all--but that doesn't mean that other bears might not be seeing this as a place to defend their positions. We'll see how the battle turns out at the close today. Danger here for both bulls and bears. Any other time, I've had said that bulls were facing more danger, but as I said, I just don't understand what's going on here and whether this really is an asset relocation, as CNBC commentators believe or just something stranger and not as bullish. I caution again that there can be a breakout on that daily chart, but experience since early winter, 2003, says that rarely happens.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 3:02:22 PM

Ten year note yields closed -.7 bps at 4.102%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 3:02:13 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 2:59:57 PM

Dow Tranpsort Components sorted by 5-day Net % at this Link ... it has been 22 days since Bear Stearns issued caution on the truckers.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 2:55:11 PM

The TRAN looks vulnerabel to 3609.37-3612.52, according to its 15-minute chart. That test might also constitute a test of a potential H&S neckline on its 15-minute chart. We've seen lots of these start to set up today but they're not confirming or just barely confirming and then bouncing back above the neckline. The TRAN is sometimes a fast mover in either direction, so traders might keep it on the radar screen.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 2:50:57 PM

OEX bulls do not want to see the OEX close a 15-minute period below the Keltner line now at 568.48. Support begins to thin below that line, although that thinning has not hampered the OEX so far today.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 2:50:15 PM

Looks like the move above the 72 SMA was just a "Crazy Ivan" to run the stops, with 38.10 never touched. QQQQ is back below the line, but the short cycle upphase continues.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 2:47:09 PM

The OEX closed minimally above the breakout level on its 15-minute chart. Hasn't reached a new HOD.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 2:46:39 PM

Buy/sell program premiums since the opening bell buy program premium, have not witnessed any further buy/sell premiums.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 2:46:16 PM

RLX charging up toward 459 and then the day's high at 459.44. Hasn't topped that day's high yet, though. It's at 458.77 as I type. OEX bulls want to see a new RLX HOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 2:44:14 PM

QQQQ surges above 72 SMA resistnace at 38.04, the short cycle upphase kicking in more but not yet overcoming the possible right-shoulder discussed earlier. A move above 38.10 should be enough to do it, setting up a retest of the highs at 38.16.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 2:43:24 PM

OEX testing the breakout level again, at 569.07 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX at 569.26 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 2:41:17 PM

S&P Dep. Receipts (SPY) $121.86 +0.45% ... just off session high of $122.06.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 2:40:27 PM

Continued yield curve flattening finds S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 364.97 +0.20% up just less than 1 point.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 2:39:40 PM

5-year yield ($FVX.X) off morning high yield of 3.949%, but still up 1.5 bp at 3.914%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 2:38:57 PM

30-year yield ($TYX.X) darts to morning lows. Down 1.2 bp at 4.349%.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 2:38:40 PM

Most indices are trading sideways on their 15-minute charts. Bears and bulls are momentarily balanced.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 2:37:51 PM

August crude oil finished -.75 at 58.875. 50 tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 2:33:40 PM

RLX again bounces from that neckline.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 2:30:00 PM

The TRAN is now being pressured lower by its five-minute 21-ema, and has been since about noon. The TRAN approaches potential 3607-ish support, however, with the TRAN currently at 3614.25, with further support near 3600, of course.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 2:28:14 PM

RLX back at the neckline of its H&S on its five-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 2:26:12 PM

Bulls got their first wishes, because many indices bounced right back up after confirming H&S formations, but they didn't get their next wishes, at least not yet, because I'm not see new highs, at least not yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 2:25:45 PM

Zooming in on the 100-tick QQQQ chart at this Link , we see price holding below the 72 SMA at 38.04. A short cycle upphase has kicked off, but it's getting very poor traction for a change. This confirms that the 30 min cycle downphase is dominant, and suggests another plunge when it reverses. But it's still young, with plenty of time left to kick off another attempt on the highs so long as prce holds above the prior low at 37.90.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 2:26:05 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $35.60 +2.83% ... very similar intra-day to INX.X. Intra-day pattern objective $35.89 (neckline $35.68)

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 2:22:51 PM

OEX still caught between nearby Keltner resistance and nearby Keltner support on the 15-minute Keltner chart. No breakout either direction. Bulls want to see the OEX hold 568.22 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 2:21:47 PM

CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 198.74 +1.66% ... 5-minute interval chart shows reverse h/s pattern with neckline (198.63) just broken to upside. Very small pattern objective to 199.50.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 2:17:15 PM

RUT not successful in printing a new one-minute high. The OEX did, however, and it's pulled back and is making another stab at it, too.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 2:10:53 PM

About four minutes ago, the RUT gapped above the one-minute 100/130-ema's in a show of strength. Last one-minute high was at 670.56, with the just reached level 670.52, a test of that last one-minute high. The RUT is at 670.43 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 2:09:11 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 2:08:17 PM

The Wilshire 5000 also had a potential H&S on its five-minute chart, but it's rising again, either into a second right shoulder or in an ultimate invalidation of the formation. The neckline appears to be at about 12,158. The right-shoulder level appears to be at about 12,180-12,185, with the Wilshire 5000 at 12,178.l79 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 2:05:56 PM

The OEX is pinned between 567.61-568.03 support on the 15-minute Keltner channel and 568.80-569.07 resistance. Could still go either way according to that chart. Support thins below the support currently being tested, which gives the slightest bias toward a move downward, but I wouldn't yet rule out another rest of the Keltner resistance and the day's highs. There's something I don't understand about the underlying bias here, so I'm not making pronouncements, but instead just noting what I see.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 2:02:01 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 2:01:51 PM

QQQQ failed just above 72 SMA resistance and just below 38.05, creading what might be the right shoulder of an intrday head and shoulders pattern with a sloping neckline at 37.93 (possible horizontal neckline at 37.85). If this pattern is valid, then the break of the neckline should take place on a surge in volume. Note that 30 and 60 min channel support also line up at 37.85. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 1:59:51 PM

The SOX also has either just confirmed or is just testing its H&S neckline, visible on the five-minute chart. OEX hasn't quite gotten there yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 1:59:05 PM

I think the important-to-the-OEX RLX just confirmed its H&S. This is happening during a prime stop-running time of day, so bulls want to see a quick reversal back higher, and this to have just been a stop-running move. Bears want the opposite.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 1:57:36 PM

Cenrtral European Distribution (CEDC) $38.26 +0.57% Link ... announces that is has signed a share purchase agreement with the Polish Treasury Ministry to purchase 61% of the outstanding capital stock of Polmos Bialystok S.A., Poland's second largest producer of vodka, for a total purchase price of PLN 1.06 billion (approximately $312 million based on current exchange rate). The share purchase will be completed upon receipt of approvals from the Polish anti- monopoly office and the Polish securities and stock exchange commission. The acquisition is expected to close in the third quarter of 2005.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 1:55:53 PM

Do not automatically assume that these H&S's will confirm or even meet their downside targets if they do. I think markets are at risk of a pullback, but anyone who lived through 2003's rally with a trading account still surviving knows that when there's this confusing underpinning to the markets, that bearish formations sometimes set up and even confirmed, only to then have prices shoot higher again. I think we need pullbacks so that longs are not such weak hands but that's what I thought when 2003's rally began, too.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 1:53:57 PM

The RLX also has a potential H&S visible on the five-minute chart, but the neckline for this one ascends and is a bit more difficult to pinpoint. Looks as if the neckline is at about 457.68, with the RLX currently at 457.91.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 1:52:55 PM

Inegrated Silicon Solution (ISSI) $8.66 +5.86% Link ... upgraded to "buy" at WR Hambrecht.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 1:52:19 PM

Should be no surprise that the OEX also has a potential H&S on top of its climb on its five-minute chart since the SOX and perhaps others are now building potential H&S's. The OEX's neckline appears to be at about 567.50, with a new HOD of course invalidating the formation.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 1:51:35 PM

Centex Corp. (CTX) $75.88 +2.30% Link ... upgraded to "market perform" at Avondale Partners.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 1:50:04 PM

Burlington Resources (BR) $58.32 -0.37% Link ... downgraded to "hold" at Deutsche Securities.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 1:49:40 PM

Just noticed that the SOX's 15-minute RSI has already confirmed a H&S. This sometimes occurs in advance of a price confirmation, but of course, we just wait for such a confirmation. That would appear to come on a SOX move below 447.48, but the formation would be a bit lop-sided and I'm wondering if the SOX might not come down to 446-446.15 and attempt another bounce from there.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 1:48:56 PM

EOG Resources (EOG) $59.81 -1.07% Link ... downgraded to "hold" at Deutsche Securities.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 1:45:28 PM

Potential H&S on the SOX's 15-minute chart, with the SOX in a right-shoulder building mode now. A new high of the day would invalidate the formation, of course.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 1:43:46 PM

August crude oil is up to a .925 loss at 58.70.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 1:43:25 PM

RUT just about exactly met its upside target for the inverse H&S on its 1-minute chart, and now pulls back. The pullback so far looks a bit bull flag-ish, but we'll see. I'm not suggesting new bullish entries and not yet ready to suggest new bearish entries on the RUT or any other indices, so am just in a watching mode.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 1:42:08 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 1:36:22 PM

The RLX has also just confirmed an inverse H&S, this visible on its one- and three-minute charts. Hesitating a bit just after that confirmation, though.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 1:34:48 PM

OEX again testing the breakout level on its 15-minute Keltner chart, as I type. That's at 568.46-568.69 on 15-minute closes. The OEX is at 568.66 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 1:30:49 PM

The RUT confirmed an inverse H&S-ish shape on its one-minute chart, a first point for the bulls. Upside target perhaps near 670.55, although the formation was rough enough that I'm not sure of the exact location of the neckline. Bulls want to see that target exceeded. Bears don't want to see it met.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 1:29:05 PM

Bonso Elec. (BNSO) $6.31 +22.28% ... with upper 5-mrt and "dynamic" intra-day high/low at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 1:27:25 PM

QQQQ broke below the 72 SMA on light volume and is drifting back up to test it from below. The 30 min cycle channel has turned down, resistance down to 38.15 and support at 37.90. The wavelet cycle is heading up, launching from a small bullish divergence, and so far the decline from the highs has a corrective look and feel to it. Adv:Decv is 3.56:1 on the Nasdaq, never having flipped to negative. On the NYSE it's 2.6:1. Updated 100-tick chart of QQQQ at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 1:25:15 PM

RUT testing 670 and the three-minute 21-ema from the underside, with that average having supported it on bounces since Thursday afternoon, and mostly since Thursday morning, too, with only a few breaches. The RUT is at 670.02 as I type, with that three-minute 21-ema at 670.01.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 1:22:32 PM

The OEX did begin a bounce from 15-minute Keltner support now at 567.77, as might have been expected, as I noted earlier. It's about to face the breakout level again, from 568.44-568.62 on 15-minute closes. This test may tell us more about short-term strength or weakness. Bulls need that 567.77 line to be maintained on 15-minute closes.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 1:21:03 PM

Back. The 32B T-Bill auctions generated a bid to cover ratio of 2.53 on the 13-week notes, high-yield of 3.204%. This was the strongest demand since the April 25 auction, and the highest high-rate since 2001. The 26-week bills had a bid to cover of 2.34, the highest since June 6th, on a high-yield of 3.4% (highest yield since 2001). Foreign central banks took 8.7B of the 32B total, back to their usual levels of demand.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 1:17:06 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 1:12:55 PM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for 1/2 position in shares of Bonso Electronics (BNSO) $6.21 +20.34% here, stop $6.05, target $6.80.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 1:08:23 PM

The OEX has more than met the downside target of this morning's H&S on the one-minute chart, showing that bears were at least able to produce follow-through on the very short term. The OEX has dropped all the way into the 567-568 support level. Now would be an important moment for the bulls to mount a bounce attempt, as the OEX tests 15-minute Keltner support at 567.70 on 15-minute closes. Below this, the Keltner support starts thinning, but exists at 565.58 and then near 563-564. Since the OEX has dropped below the breakout zone, I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce attempt back up to retest that zone to see if it now holds as resistance, but this is developing over the very short term the way that bears would like to see it do. Since I don't understand what prompted the huge spike on some indices, however--Was this just carry-over of RUT rebalancing, shorts scared out of positions, or something more bullish?--I'm going to be more hesitant to suggest bearish positions. I am suggesting that bulls protect profits, however.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 1:03:03 PM

Advdec line dropping a bit more heavily now. Not enough to peg bearish hopes on, but since I've been watching for two days for signs that the advdec line had risen into excessive levels, I'm watching it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 1:02:58 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 1:00:26 PM

Bonso Electronics (BNSO) $6.15 +19.18% Link ... earnings up 679% for the quarter, 48% vs. year ago.

Reported net income of $1,270,000 or $0.21 per share (diluted) on net sales of $13,861,000 for the fourth fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2005. This represented an increase of 679% in net income and decrease of 17% in net sales as compared to $163,000 or $0.03 per share (diluted) on net sales of $16,624,000 posted during the same period last year.

Net income for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2005 increased 48% to $3,350,000 or $0.55 per share (diluted) as compared to $2,268,000 or $0.37 per share (diluted) posted during the same period last year. Net sales for the year ended March 31, 2005 decreased 7.2% to $69,602,000 from net sales of $74,964,000 for the year ended March 31, 2004.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:57:34 PM

OEX still holding right at the breakout level on its 15-minute Keltner chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:54:58 PM

The RUT now below the three-minute 21-ema and testing the five-minute 21-ema at 670.33, with the RUT at 670.02 as I type. I mentioned this morning that I thought the RUT was long overdue for a test of the three-minute 100/130-ema's, now at 666.64 and 664.96, but the RUT's pullback could still be in the form of a bull flag or bullish descending wedge, so I'm not certain whether there might perhaps be another bounce attempt. RUT 670 would make a natural place from which to attempt such a bounce.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 12:49:36 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:48:50 PM

Unlike the OEX, the RLX is maintaining 15-minute closes above or at the Keltner line currently at 458.13, with the RLX currently at 458.37. That line has flattened, suggesting a slight waning of strength, but so far, the RLX outperforms the OEX on this basis. OEX bulls want to see the RLX keep performing strongly and maintain its breakout status on its 15-minute chart, by remaining above that line and then above 456.48 on 15-minute closes if that first line of defense is breached.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:46:42 PM

The OEX is caught between 15-minute Keltner resistance, up to 569.37, and nearest support, down to 567.56. It's sitting on the breakout level, testing that. The OEX is at 568.56 as I type. Below the 567.56 level, support thins somewhat.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 12:41:26 PM

QQQQ has broken the 72 SMA, at long last, but on unremarkable volume and with none of the drama that usually signals a stronger decline. The TRINQ is still quite low at .51, in strong bullish territory, as is the 4.2:1 adv:decv ratio. A short cycle downphase is in progress, and a break below 37.90 should be sufficient to turn the 30 min cycle down as well.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:40:47 PM

On the one-minute OEX chart, the drop looked steep and the climb off the 12:30 low corrective, with the bounce being up toward the one-minute 21-ema at 568.64, with that average now holding as resistance. It's about to be tested again, so we'll see if it does this time. One minute 100/130-ema's at 568.84-568.95, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:39:09 PM

Sox dropping back into a test of the daily Keltner resistance (on the close), now at 447.16 with the SOX now at 448.63.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:34:23 PM

The last OEX 15-minute period's close was the first close since 2:30 Thursday afternoon beneath a Keltner line currently at 568.74, so there's been a failure to bounce from the one-minute 21-ema, a confirmation of a H&S on a one-minute chart, and a 15-minute close beneath this support. This is just kindling so far, but will it build into a fire? Bulls, protect profits.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 12:33:24 PM

QQQQ tests 72 SMA support for the first time since Friday's at 10:15AM. Volume breadth has weakened but is still strong, positive 4.22:1 on the Nasdaq, 2.73:1 on the NYSE.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 12:32:18 PM

Pixar (PIXR) $42.19 -1.88% Link ... probing Dec/Jan relative lows. (see DWA 11:22:41 AM)

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:31:42 PM

Bigger drop on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart, all the way down to test the breakout level. The OEX closed the just-completed 15-minute period below that breakout level, but only barely. Next support at 557.46-568.46 and next resistanc at 568.42-569.49.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:29:32 PM

RUT finally dipping low enough to test the 1-minute 100/130-ema's, at 670.43 and 669.79, respectively, and with the RUT at 670.74.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:27:35 PM

On another chart, this the 15-minute Keltner chart, the OEX is testing a Keltner line that has supported the OEX on 15-minute closes since Thursday afternoon, with that line at 568.92 on 15-minute closes, and with the breakout level maintained as long as the OEX produces 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 568.37. That's about to be tested, too, it appears.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 12:26:49 PM

The Treasury is auctioning 17B in 13-week bills and 15B in 26-week bills. The results will be announced at 1PM.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:26:00 PM

On the OEX's one-minute chart, I'm also watching a descending trendline off the day's high, currently at 569.24, with the OEX at 569.09. A bounce from the one-minute 100-ema, currently being tested, and a move up through that trendline rather than further decline through the 130-ema might mean that the pullback has just been a bull flag before another push upward. If there is another push, watch for the shape of that push, although I haven't seen anything steep enough in any pullback to encourage me to suggest new bearish entries even if there was bearish divergence. I'm on the watch because of the advdec line's level Friday and today, but haven't seen it yet.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 12:23:25 PM

Internet Initiative Japan (IIJI) update alert .... After selling covered calls, I would follow with stops on BOTH the stock and the covered calls. Should stock trade $9.50 or lower, would buy back the covered calls, then close out the underlying stock position.

By selling the July $10 Calls (IQD-GB) for $0.60, we are thus willing to sell the stock at ... $10 + $0.60 = $10.60, which is at initial bullish target of $10.50. Friday (07/15/05) is July expiration.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:21:49 PM

OEX again testing the one-minute 100/130-ema's, at 569.12 and 568.92, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:21:16 PM

The shape of the SOX's decline on intraday charts could still be a bull flag. No upside break yet. If there is, watch for possible bearish divergence if the HOD should be reached or tested. As I've been mentioning, the SOX is testing Keltner support on a daily chart (see my 10:08 post for the chart) that is rarely breached by the SOX for more than a few days, so bullish plays are usually living on borrowed time once they hit that resistance. However, a breakout can always occur. I would just be extremely cautious if I were sitting on strong gains in bullish SOX plays.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 12:19:16 PM

Swing trade sell covered call alert ... let's sell five (5) covered calls on the Internet Initiative IIJI Jul. $10 (IQD-GB) for $0.60.

IIJI $9.96 +5.29% ... IQD-GB is bid/offer $0.50 x $0.65.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 12:17:14 PM

The short cycle indicators have rolled over despite the persistence of price above the 72 SMA support. However, the downphase is getting very little price traction so far. It will take a break of 72 SMA support (just 5 cents below the current QQQQ bid) to potentially change that. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:16:10 PM

If I've placed the neckline correctly on that one-minute H&S on the OEX, the downside target should be at about 568.40 or perhaps just a cent or two less. The OEX has just now bounced exactly fron the one-minute 21-ema back up to test the 21-ema on that chart from the underside, however. So far, the one-minute 21-ema is holding as resistance, but there's been no falling toward the H&S target, so even on this very short-term basis, there's mixed evidence. Can't believe I'm following one-minute charts to give you information about the OEX today. The OEX is currently at 569.26.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 12:13:57 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link ... 450 NH at NYSE above 02/05/04 (416), but shy of 524 found on 12/02/04. 219 NH at NASDAQ above 192 from 12/28/04, but still shy of 340 from 12/03/04.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:10:30 PM

RUT testing the three-minute 21-ema from which it's been bouncing since Thursday afternoon. (The RUT's bounce has been steeper than the OEX's, so it's been bouncing from this average on a shorter time frame.) That MA is at 671.04 with the RUT at 671.15 as I type, and bulls would like to see another bounce from this average. As I said earlier this morning, the RUT looks overdue for a test of the 100/130-ema's on this chart, now at 663.60 and 665.35, but RUT investors haven't asked for my opinion.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:08:19 PM

Turning to the five-minute chart to watch the OEX now. It's headed down into a test of the five-minute 21-ema, now at 569.08, having just barely confirmed a H&S on its one-minute chart. The OEX has been bouncing from this five-minute 21-ema since Thursday afternoon, too, and bulls want to see that pattern continued. The OEX looks overdue for a test of the 100/130-ema's at 565.11 and 565.97 to me, but it's looked overdue for that test for a while now, without it occurring.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 12:07:11 PM

August crude oil -1.275 at 58.35 here, -2.14% for the day.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:05:14 PM

The SOX angles down in what could be a flag or bullish falling wedge, depending on your interpretation. This is as seen on the one-minute chart. Wedges don't always break the expected direction, of course.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:04:06 PM

No H&S on the RLX's one-minute chart. That still looks like a potential bull flag pullback, although the just-completed attempt to break out of that flag did not appear to be successful.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 12:02:35 PM

The OEX's one-minute chart now reveals a potential H&S. We know not to trust a one-minute formation too strongly, of course, but watching first whether it confirms and then whether it meets its downside target will help us gauge short-term bullish or bearish strength. The neckline is at about 569.40, if I've drawn it correctly, with the OEX currently at 569.50.

Tab Gilles : 7/11/2005 12:02:21 PM

CBOE Gold Index Link Link

Placer Dome (PDG) Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 12:01:54 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 11:58:25 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA support is up to 37.97, below which the 30 min channel upphase will stall. It would be the first such break since price first broke above 36.70 on Thursday at noon. The trending short cycle indicators are trying to curl down, as they have many times since Friday morning, but it's just noise until that 72 SMA support breaks.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:58:14 AM

The OEX has been maintaining its breakout signal on its 15-minute chart, with that signal maintained by a 15-minute close above a Keltner line currently at 568.23. The OEX is at 569.48 as I type, having approached daily Keltner resistance. The resistance that it approached is not as strong as that the SOX faces today on a daily close.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:52:01 AM

The RLX is pulling back, but doing so in a shape that might well be a bull flag. OEX bulls want to see the RLX continue to perform strongly.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:48:24 AM

The OEX did dip to the three-minute 21-ema, at 569.28, and is now bouncing from that.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 11:45:59 AM

Still a very persistent bid under equities, with breadth positive 3.51:1 on the NYSE, 5.12:1 on the Nasdaq. Bonds have firmed slightly, TNX back below 4.14% at 4.137%, +2.8 bps. Crude oil bounced from its 58.05 low to 58.25 here, -1.375 for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 11:45:45 AM

S&P Dep. Receipts (SPY) $121.88 +0.46% ... with updated WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link ... MACD oscillator just crossing above Signal, above zero.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:43:01 AM

RUT barely below its 1-minute 21-ema at 571.40, with the RUT at 571.15 as I type. Turning to the three-minute chart now. Three-minute 21-ema is at 670.23 and the RUT has been bouncing from this average since Thursday afternoon, so this is practically a long-term move! Smile. Bulls of course want this average to prompt another bounce. I'm of course going to warn again that you keep profit-protecting measures in place. I'm also going to caution again that I'm not suggesting new bearish entries with no evidence at all yet that they'll work other than my concerns about the excessive two-days-in-a-row advdec line.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:39:47 AM

The RLX has come back to test its one-minute 21-ema, too, with the RLX being a strong performer today. Wow, can't believe that the move has been so strong (excessive?) that we're having to watch movements on a one-minute chart!

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:37:21 AM

The OEX has again dropped into a test of the 1-minute 21-ema, dropping slightly below it as I type. It's been bouncing from this average since about 10:20, so this is the barest, barest change in trend, but the drop to test the 100/130-ema's on these charts has seemed long overdue to me. That's at 568.50-568.82 on the one-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:34:20 AM

Several indices I'm watching are attempting bounces from their one-minute 21-ema's. The ones I'm watching haven't reached new HOD's to confirm the bounce just yet, though. Looking a little less strong than on previous bounces. The RLX's bounce has been the strongest so far, and it's again approaching the previous HOD, but not there yet. Wow.

Tab Gilles : 7/11/2005 11:33:54 AM

Candle Glance Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 11:31:33 AM

New session low for August crude at 58.075, -1.55.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:30:44 AM

Several indices have been bouncing from those 1-minute 21-ema's this morning, including the RLX, Nasdaq, OEX and RUT, among others, so it might be useful to watch that average on your preferred index. RLX currently attmepting a bounce from that average.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:29:32 AM

OEX still testing the flattening 1-minute 21-ema, with that at 569.61 and the OEX at 569.62.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 11:29:21 AM

Collegiate Pacific (AMEX:BOO) $11.27 +2.26% ... back to test its 200-day SMA ($11.26). Thinly traded issue. (see MM 07/05/05 01:36:15 PM) Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 11:27:15 AM

Crude oil has extended its loss, -1.425 at 58.20 here, off its 58.15 low.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:26:41 AM

RUT trying to bounce before it even reaches the 1-minute 21-ema.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 11:26:15 AM

An auspicious start to op-ex week.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:26:04 AM

OEX testing the 1-minute 21-ema again.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 11:25:35 AM

QQQQ marches higher with a series of prints above the 30 min channel top, generally where the bears push back. However, since Friday morning, each such print has only serves to mark the beginning of a bull flag, as price consolidates sideways instead of actually pulling back. This has been so consistent that now the short cycle, 30 min and 60 min indicators are all trending in overbought as the daily cycle bulls capitalize on last week's buy signal. 2-day 100-tick chart of QQQQ at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:24:27 AM

OEX coming down to test the 1-minute 21-ema, with that at 569.59 and the OEX at 569.71 as I type. A one-mintue close beneath that would be the barest, barest of signs of a short-term change in trend, but watch for a possible bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 11:22:41 AM

Dreamworks Animation (DWA) $23.15 -13.65% Link ... New lows after the animated film maker said it is now expecting a loss of 7 cents to 9 cents per share in the second quarter, compared with earlier views to break even during the period. Annual earnings estimates for 2005 were lowered to $0.80 to $0.90 cents per share from a past range of $1.00 to $1.25 per share.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:22:13 AM

Advdec line now at 3043, according to QCharts, a number that is usually marking short-term highs. Didn't Friday, of course, but it's not always instantaneous.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:21:15 AM

OEX also bouncing from the 1-minute 21-ema, now at 569.51 with the OEX at 570.10, currently hitting or approaching daily Keltner resistance.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:20:20 AM

RUT getting closer to its 674.43 upside target on the daily Keltner channels. I need a 30-second chart now to watch the bounces from the 21-ema, as the RUT keeps steepening its climb. The RUT is currently at 672.06 with that one-minute 21-ema now at 670.65.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 11:18:32 AM

Session low for ten year notes, TNX at 4.148%. This 4.14%-4.16% zone is confluence resistance, above which 4.2% comes into view.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:17:25 AM

SOX above 450.

Tab Gilles : 7/11/2005 11:17:08 AM

$NDX Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 11:18:15 AM

NASDAQ NH/NL ratio chart as of Friday's close at this Link

"f" is five day ratio

X/O is 10-day ratio

Both charted using 3-box reversal method.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:15:50 AM

SOX still just below 450. RLX continues to move higher, showing a strong surge as I began typing this post. It's at 458.66 as I type, charting up toward the next resistance zone produced late last year, from 463-466.68. The RLX is at 549.21 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 11:12:50 AM

NYSE NH/NL ratio chart as of Friday's close at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 11:12:26 AM

The most recent put to call reading came in at the low end of neutral, .68. Still so sign of weakness price-wise, with volume breadth 3.6:1 positive on the NYSE, 4.84:1 on the Nasdaq. Ten year notes have weakened further, TNX breaking above 4.14% resistance and up 4 bps at 4.144% here despite the Fed's repo add this morning.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:12:25 AM

OEX maintaining its breakout signal on the 15-minute chart so far, with that signal maintained by 15-minute closes above converging Keltner support at 567.94-568.00. With the advdec line again approaching excessive levels, bulls, protect profits. This has been an unneeded warning so far, but then, it hasn't hurt anyone as I'm certainly not suggesting new bearish entries. Whenever the OEX is in breakout mode, that warning is needed.

Tab Gilles : 7/11/2005 11:14:50 AM

$SPX Link

$INDU Link

$TRAN Link

$NDX Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 11:09:50 AM

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:09:08 AM

SOX still just below 450, at 449.42 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 11:09:01 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:07:34 AM

RUT steepening its climb even more, now bouncing from the 1-minute 21-ema. Above 670 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:04:56 AM

The Wilshire 5000 is at 12,180.80 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:03:54 AM

RUT now testing the top of a steeply ascending regression channel off its April low. It may be slightly above the top of that channel, but we need to see a daily close above it since this channel formed on a daily chart, before we say that it's broken out of it to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 11:02:31 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:02:25 AM

Next daily Keltner resistance at 570.38 (on daily closes).

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 11:01:12 AM

RUT still maintaining its bounces now from the two-minute 21-ema, currently at 668.11. So far, the RUT is currently trading sideways as that MA rises to meet it, with the RUT currently at 668.98. I wouldn't be surprised to see a brief dip to meet that average in a couple of minutes and then we'll see if it bounces from it again.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 10:59:10 AM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $35.47 +2.45% ... breaks back above its 200-day SMA ($35.31)

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 10:59:05 AM

QQQQ update at this Link with 72 SMA support rising to 37.85, 30 min channel resistance at 38.10. There is still no sign of weakness, every dip so far resolving itself as a bull flag. Volume breadth is positive 4.56:1 here for the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:57:27 AM

The RLX is another of those indices whose gains look excessive, with the RLX often playing a leadership role to the upside lately. Since about 10:30 Thursday morning, the RLX has had only one 45-minute period when it was closing below the 15-minute Keltner line currently at 455.94, with that kind of move representing the steepest of climbs. It's created a breakout signal on its 15-minute Keltner chart, with support amassing from 454.77 up to that 455.94 level. OEX bulls want to see that support hold on 15-minute closes, because gains in the retailers have helped the OEX, too. The RLX is at 457.51 as I type, just cents off its HOD.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 10:58:17 AM

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05u) 1,552.50 +0.51% (10-minute delayed) ... alert here Link ... has not been able to settle above these levels since falling below on 06/07/05. See prior MM comments.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 10:54:13 AM

El Paso Corp. (EP) $11.97 +0.08% ... DJ - Expects Gulf gas output back on line by this afternoon.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:53:07 AM

RUT upside target now 674.10 on the daily chart, but Keltner-style bearish divergence is still present on that chart. As I said earlier, I'm not sure whether the upside target will be met since that divergence exists, so that bulls need to remain protective of their profits and not stubbornly adhere to that upside target if the RUT just barely misses it before pulling back. It appears a little early to talk about a pullback just yet, though, doesn't it? Smile.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 10:52:01 AM

Internet Initiative (IIJI) $10.18 +7.51% ... trader's note ... I sold covered calls on the move above $10.00 at the July $10 strike (IQD-GB). Was at the offer and they were gobbled up at $0.55.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:51:06 AM

Advdec line charging higher again today, with no sign of abatement yet. That's why it's so dangerous to try to pick a top, no matter what your sentiment tells you about how excessive gains might be. Mine tells me this is way, way overdue for just a normal pullback, but I'm not jumping in short anywhere.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 10:49:09 AM

So far bonds are missing the party, ten year notes down 7.32 at 111 55/64, TNX up 2.8 bps at 4.136%. Gold is up 1.90 at 425.80, off a low of 424.40, with HUI +1.85% at 203.57 and XAU +1.68% at 93.72. Nymex crude is down .95 at 58.675.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:49:01 AM

OEX approaching next daily Keltner resistance at 570.26, with the OEX at 568.93. This isn't always the strongest of daily Keltner resistance, although it does sometimes mark a daily high. It can of course be nudged higher as the OEX moves higher.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:47:41 AM

SOX just under 450, at 449.52 as I type, back above daily Keltner resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 10:48:48 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,623.67 +0.93% Link ... breaks above downward trend (Bear Stearns Trend) on bar chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:45:33 AM

RUT didn't even come down to retest the three-minute 21-ema that it's been bouncing from since Thursday afternoon, but instead bounced from the 2-minute version, steepening its climb, moving closer to its daily Keltner target. The Keltner-style bearish divergence still exists on that daily chart, and this straight-up climb continues to look excessive, but as I commented earlier, RUT investors aren't asking me.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:43:38 AM

The BIX has not produced a breakout signal today on its 15-minute chart, differing from the OEX. It's maintaining support above the same Keltner line from which the OEX has been bouncing, currently at 364.72, but has been doing a bit more testing of that Keltner line than has the OEX.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 10:43:00 AM

NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 2,125.64 +0.60% ... today's trade at 2,120 sets off a triple top buy signal on conventional 20-point box. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:41:47 AM

Some indices have exceeded their previous HOD's; some just now coming up for a test of their HOD's. The TRAN is one of the latter.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 10:41:44 AM

The second half-hour's CBOE total p/c ratio was a more neutral .66, up from the opening .48 reading. Volume breadth is positive 2.53:1 on the NYSE, 4.02:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:40:42 AM

SOX finding support on 15-minute closes on a Keltner line currently at 447.30. This is an extreme short-term breakout, though, because price bars are even sitting on top of its smallest Keltner channel. As long as that continues, it would be dangerous to try to pick a top, but that certainly is excessive to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 10:40:12 AM

10 Most Active ... SIRI $7.31 +4.72%, QQQQ $37.95 +0.47%, MSFT $25.24 +0.59%, SPY $121.60 +0.23%, INTC $27.42 +0.51%, IWM $66.46 +0.74%, CSCO $19.34 +0.14%, AMAT $17.05 +2.34%, SUNW $3.66 +0.82%, SMH $35.98 +1.26%

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:36:45 AM

OEX still testing 557-558 S/R zone.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:35:34 AM

SOX still testing that daily Keltner resistance, but that may go on most of the day. The SOX has not yet hit a new HOD as have some other indices, but the pullback on the SOX doesn't look serious, either. It's just that bullish plays usually are at risk once the SOX hits that daily Keltner channel line shown in my 10:08 post. This could be the time that the SOX breaks out, of course, but it's certainly a time to be protective of profits, just in case it continues its many-months-long pattern. The SOX has not spent more than a few days outside that black channel since last summer, when it was breaking through to the downside, and then the fall and early winter of 2003, when it was breaking through to the upside.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 10:34:14 AM

QQQQ continues to hang at the highs, with 30 min channel resistance up to 38.01 and the 72 SMA holding at 37.80. So far the short cycle dip yields only a sideways price decline, and bulls are looking for a break of the session high for a possible rising triangle breakout on the intraday chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:30:10 AM

OEX so far maintaining its breakout signal on the 30-minute Keltner chart, with a 15-minute close below a Keltner line currently at 567.66 being the first sign of a temporary erasure of that breakout signal, but a 15-minute close beneath a Keltner line currently at 567.08 actually needed to show even the barest of hints of a change in short-term trend.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:28:41 AM

Nasdaq retesting the day's high, just cents below it as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:27:05 AM

For those who like to watch trending markets with relationship to a MA, the RUT has been bouncing from its three-minute 21-ema, almost exactly, since its last test of the three-minute 100/130-ema's at about 2:30 Thursday afternoon. The three-minute 21-ema is now at 665.18, with the RUT at 666.58, currently retesting the day's high. It looks to me as if the RUT is long overdue for a retest of the three-minute 100/130-ema's, at 660.02 and 658.63, respectively, but then the RUT investors didn't ask my opinion. Just protect short-term bullish profits.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:21:29 AM

SOX back below daily Keltner resistance. See the Keltner chart linked to my 10:08 post.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 10:21:05 AM

The CBOE total put to call ratio for the first half hour was .48, which is an extremely low reading. The obvious interpretation (not necessarily correct) is that the market is unbalanced to the call/bullish side, which is usually a bearish indication. However, price weakness remains minimal, with equity indices green and volume breadth still strong. QQQQ bears need a break of 37.80 at minimum to suggest even an intraday correction.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:19:15 AM

The Dow is finding resistance today at its 100-sma, at 10,477.69. It pierced that average this morning, but is currently just below it again. The TRAN pierced its 100-sma at 3600.89 and is slightly off its high of the day, but it remains above that 3600.89 level. Bulls want it to stay there.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:17:32 AM

The TRAN is hesitating above the 50% retracement of the first 15-minute range. If you read my Traders Corner article this weekend or are already familiar with candlestick S/R levels, you'll know that the first 15-minute's longer-than-normal candle might now present support at its midpoint, at about 3606.05. The TRAN is at 3611.98, having dipped to 3607.15 before bouncing again, and market bulls would like to see that 50% retracement level hold as support. Bears would not, of course.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 10:16:01 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 10:15:17 AM

Crude oil has reopened, trading -1.025 at 58.60, off its session low of 58.25.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:14:28 AM

So far, the OEX at least does not look as if it's going to confirm an evening-star reversal signal on its 15-minute chart. So far, the pullback looks corrective and has stopped short of the rising Keltner line at 566.87, maintaining the OEX's breakout status on the 15-minute chart. Still watching, but so far, this is just a case of bulls needing to protect profits.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:12:54 AM

The RUT has a daily Keltner channel upside target of 673.78, although the RUT is showing some Keltner-style bearish divergence on the daily chart. Sometimes this serves as only a warning as prices continue higher, but sometimes it is predictive of a downturn, perhaps toward 650-ish daily Keltner support. Therefore, I would be protective of my bullish profits if in a bullish play on the RUT, and wouldn't stubbornly hang in there for a test of that 673-674 zone. It's possible that it won't be touched, although I just can't give a strong assessment of how likely it is that it will or won't be touched. So far, the target does remain in place, but it will take a daily close beneath that 650 level to erase it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 10:09:01 AM

Bearish swing trade stop alert ... for Placer Dome (PDG) $15.60 +1.36% ...

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:08:50 AM

SOX still pulling back slightly off its HOD, now back at the daily Keltner resistance at 446.92. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 10:08:26 AM

Ten year treasury notes (ZNU5) are chopping sideways at the lows, with TNX down to a 2.4 bp gain at 4.133%, pulling back from 4.14% resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 10:06:57 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:05:42 AM

First level to watch for support on the OEX 567.56 (the breakout level on 15-minute Keltner chart) and then 666.85. Bulls want to see one of those hold on the current oh-so-slight pullback. Bears want a much steeper fall, although bears might be an endangered species just now.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 10:03:48 AM

Okay, so we have some potential reversal signals in the making on some 15-minute charts, signals that I take more seriously because of Friday's excessive advdec line. Friday, I detailed action in the OEX in two instances in June when the advdec line approached such high levels and both instances resulted in short-term swing highs. However, this is NOT enough evidence to jump in on the short side. We could be entering a new market phase. Watch for those reversal signals to be completed, and use this as a sign to protect bullish profits. The trend has definitely been up, and it's dangerous to jump in against trend. Better to hope the market gives you a sign that a trend reversal is in place, in the form of a steep decline and then a retest of highs with bearish divergence, etc. The markets aren't always so kind, but they're very frequently extremely unkind to those who try to pick a top because a certain level or time ought to be the top.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 10:03:27 AM

My IB screens have just gone dead.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 10:01:40 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 9:58:45 AM

The Fed has announced a 7B overnight repo, resulting in a net add of 2.25B for the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 9:58:09 AM

Waiting for the Fed's morning announcement on the disposition of its expiring 4.75B weekend repo. Equities seem to be waiting too, hanging at the highs with the intraday and short cycle indicators still deeply oversold and volume breadth strongly positive. Updated 3-day 3-min QQQQ chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 9:58:02 AM

SOX so far has a doji or small-bodied candle at the top of a steep climb on its 15-minute chart. Remember not to presume a reversal from two periods of a needed three-period reversal pattern, such as an evening-star reversal signal, especially when this period hasn't even completed, although it's close to doing so as I type. This just means some hesitation, so far. Friday's excessive advdec line has me a bit worried about the possibility that we're seeing at least some short term swing highs approached, but no confirmation of that just yet anywhere I see.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 9:58:26 AM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $7.27 +4.15% Link ... atop this morning's most active list.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 9:55:10 AM

OEX charged up to next historical resistance (actually a zone at roughly 557-558) and pauses there, currently producing a doji during this still-early 15-minute period. It's remaining above a 15-minute Keltner line currently at 566.64, with that line supporting the OEX through 30+ 15-minute closes. A close below that would be the barest of confirmations that a pullback has begun, but a pullback would be normal after such a strong climb and nothing to excite bears unless the OEX were to pull back in a steep descent that crashes through support levels. No sign of that yet, although we'll of course watch.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 9:51:51 AM

TRAN begins the tiniest of pullbacks, in a small-bodied candle at the top of a strong climb up through 3600, at 3618.74 as I type. We're still early, early in this 15-minute period, as well as in the day, so I'm just watching and certainly not drawing any conclusions from this smallest of pullbacks just yet.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 9:51:36 AM

VIX.X 10.93 -4.54% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 10.47, 10.96, Piv = 11.57, 12.06, 12.67

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 9:50:22 AM

RUT still charging higher. No "first retracement of the day" there, at least. Not in the SOX, either, at 449.40 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 9:41:36 AM

First retracement of the day usually begins in a couple of minutes.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 9:40:36 AM

SOX above the 6/23 high of 446.38, with the SOX at 447.98 as I type. I wouldn't be surprised to see a run up to round-number resistance at 450, and in fact, the SOX ran a bit closer as I typed. Now at 448.16.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 9:40:22 AM

Volume breadth is strong at the open, positive 2.49:1 on the NYSE and 3.23:1 on the Nasdaq. The TRIN and TRINQ are neutral-bullish at .79 and .57 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 9:37:06 AM

The OEX now challenging that 567-567.30 level, slightly above it as I type. First Keltner support to watch is 566.18, currently. Bulls want to see continued 15-minute closes above that Keltner line.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 9:34:58 AM

OEX challenging 567-567.30 next Keltner and historical resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 9:34:09 AM

Amerco (UHAL) $46.49 +2.24% ... new 52-weeker.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 9:34:00 AM

STRONG SOX climb this morning, at 446.21 as I type, approaching daily Keltner resistance at 446.47. As I've pointed out several times lately, the SOX rarely closes more than a day or two outside the Keltner channel line represented by that current 446.47 channel line, so bulls need to be particularly aware here as that line is being challenged. There could always be an upside breakout, of course, but that's been the pattern for many months, so just be attentive.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 9:31:37 AM

No big climb yet on the OEX, but it remains above the Keltner line now at 566.10, and so might continue to challenge 567-567.30 resistance, until it produces 15-minute closes below that line.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2005 9:30:00 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... for Internet Initative (IIJI) to $9.50. ($9.92 pre-market)

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 9:29:00 AM

Correction to my 9:03 post: NQ's 72 SMA is at 1537, and not 1524 as I mistakenly typed.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 9:03:00 AM

Equities are pulling back here, still within positive territory. The intraday cycles are as overbought as they've been in a month, from the 60 min all the way down to the wavelet cycles. This sets up QQQQ and NQ for a high likelihood of a pullback from here. The uncertainty comes from the fresh and so far strong buy signal in the daily cycle, which gives the intraday cycles a better chance than usual of a bullish trending move. My guess is for a pullback that bottoms at a higher low- this would relieve the intraday overbought readings and confirm the daily cycle buy signal. Bears need a break below 37.80 QQQQ / 1524 NQ to stall the 30 min cycle upphase. A break below 37.64 / 1524 would turn the 30 min cycle down.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 9:01:21 AM

Oh, and Jane's post on the Futures side (thanks, Jane, for all that information each morning) reminded me of one concern: the advdec line reached levels that have often been seen as excessive and that sometimes result in pullbacks afterwards. That's not always true, of course, but it was twice in June when the advdec reached or approached the +3000 level, which it exceeded Friday.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 8:50:09 AM

Friday, the OEX closed above the important 100-sma and the mid-channel Keltner resistance on the daily chart. The Russell 2000 broke out. The Wilshire 5000 closed above the February and June intraday highs. It's time to switch to a buy-the-dips bias. The daily chart shows a first upside target near 570.

There's a caveat, of course. I'm a worrier, particularly when I'm making comments that may impact readers' account balances, so I'm always going to give you some cautions. Here's what worries me. The Russell's climb could still be a reaction to rebalancing, although Russell futures this morning suggest there's more upside. The Dow closed right at its 200-sma and the TRAN just above it, although the TRAN has a habit of overrunning targets. As much as those of us "in the know" might dismiss the narrow Dow as the gauge of market action that the general public considers it, I'm still not going to discount the fact that these Dow and TRAN stocks are chosen to give us some indication of the economy's strength. The Dow and TRAN both underperformed other indices by some measures, including their tests of their 200-sma's, and that worries me if we're going to be looking at a bullish bias to the markets.

Since I mostly talk about the OEX, we have to consider what the OEX's chart shows. With regard to the OEX's daily Keltner channels and before we get too bullish based on a daily close above the mid-channel resistance on that chart, those channels have settled into an equilibrium position, a possibility I mentioned early last week or late the previous week. That could mean that the close back above the mid-channel resistance may not be as indicative of strength as it seems. With an equilibrium position established on nested Keltner charts, prices sometimes chop back and forth across mid-channel S/R that had looked strong, and it just means that prices are chopping back and forth. So, while I'm ready to concede that the bias may have switched to a buy-the-dips one, I do want to see the manner in which the OEX dips in order to make a final decision. A deep plunge is going to have me standing aside again, seeing what happens next.

Futures don't indicate any possible dip in the works this morning, but Keltner charts did indicate such a possibility at Friday's close, so there's mixed evidence. Friday, the OEX ended the day just below 567-567.30 resistance, having touched the top Keltner channel on its 15-minute chart. It's been bouncing strongly since last Thursday on 15-minute closes, from a Keltner line currently at 565.95, but it sure looks ready for a pullback, perhaps after another test of that Keltner and historical resistance. The first sign that a pullback is beginning would be a 15-minute Keltner close beneath that Keltner line at 565.95 on Friday's close. There hasn't been a close beneath that particular Keltner line for 31 15-minute periods, with that number of bars above it beginning to look a bit excessive. As long as it's providing support on 15-minute closes, though, the OEX looks ready to continue testing that 567-567.30-ish resistance. Next support below that Keltner line is at 565.00, but support really thins under that, presently at 562.67 and then 561.54. Bulls would prefer a bounce from above 565, and they certainly don't want to see a straight-down plunge to 560-561.50, although a corrective move down to 562-563 wouldn't be horrible. So, look for a pullback for a buy-the-dip opportunity, but stand aside if that pullback is in the form of a deep plunge.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 8:46:29 AM

Session low for ten year notes here at 111 51/64, with TNX now up 2.7 bps to 4.136% and approaching the 4.14%-4.16% confluence resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 8:23:52 AM

My friend tells me that the fire seems to be contained and doesn't appear to be major.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 8:23:31 AM

Session low for ten year notes, at 112 1/16, with TNX -.7 bps at 4.102%. CAD, EUR and CHF are all green this morning, pulling back from their overnight highs, with the cash USD Index bouncing from an overnight low of 89.80. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 8:18:34 AM

A friend tells me that there's a fire burning in lower Manhattan, visible from his window near the NY Fed building. I haven't seen any news reports to confirm it, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/11/2005 7:40:37 AM

Equities are up across the board, ES trading 1219, NQ 1550, YM 10499 and QQQQ +.20 to 37.97. Gold is up 1.70 to 425.60, silver +.049 to 7.083, ten year notes +1/32 to 112 7/64 and crude oil is down 1.05 to 58.575.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today.

Linda Piazza : 7/11/2005 7:12:36 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei zoomed higher in early trading and closed more than 100 points higher, with almost all other Asian bourses gaining, too. The exception occurred in China. Most European markets also climb. Our futures are positive, too. As of 6:45 EST, gold was up $1.70, and crude, down $1.15 to $58.48. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei leaped higher Monday morning. In only a little more than 30 minutes after the open, it had posted a gain of almost 150 points. That was to be its high of the day. It then coiled in a tight range below that high of the day, closing higher by 108.80 points or 0.94%, at 11,674.79. Crude dropped near the Nikkei's open, adding to the buoying effect of the U.S.'s jobs report and market performance on Friday. Exporters performed well, including Toyota, Advantest and Tokyo Electron, among others. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries rose in early trading after revealing that it was trying to put together a joint bid with several U.S. companies to buy Westinghouse Electric Co.

Most other Asian markets gained. The Taiwan Weighted rose 1.57%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.81%. In South Korea, Samsung Electronics, Posco, and Hynix Semiconductor all posted strong gains. Singapore's second-quarter GDP rose at an annual 12.3% rate, up from the first quarter's 5.5% contraction. This quarter's growth far exceeded the expected 6.6% gain. It's been almost two years since Singapore's economy grew this fast, one article noted. Higher production of electronics, drugs and oil rigs helped the GDP to rebound. One commentator noted that a continued strong growth is dependent on crude prices staying tame. The Straits Times rose 1.14%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.38%, but China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.64%, the only Asian bourse to drop. China's June trade surplus was much higher than expected, with exports rising 30.6% year over year and imports 15.1%.

Most European markets gain, too, helped by crude prices below $60.00. Oil majors declined while some crude-sensitive stocks such as auto manufacturers and airlines benefited. U.K. airport operator BAA PLC also noted an increase in tonnage and passengers in June. In the U.K., the PPI number showed a decline in output prices for the second month in a row but a slightly higher rise in input prices, and the May trade deficit widened more than expected. This weekend, Luxemburg's referendum resulted in an approval of the EU constitution, with this being the 13th out of 25 European nations to ratify the constitution if the country's assembly approves the vote's result. Some feel that this weekend's referendum might result in a resumption of the momentum for the ratification endeavor.

Some companies reacted to M&A news. Pharmaceutical companies also reacted to news. Bayer and Onyx Pharmaceuticals have submitted a new drug application to the U.S. FDA for a renal drug to be released on the market in the first half of next year. Bayer was climbing in early trading as a result of the news. Novartis benefited from news that, based on its Phase III data results, it would file for both U.S. and EU approval to treat postmenopausal women with early breast cancer with its Femara tablets after surgery. Roche and GE Healthcare will collaborate to study Alzheimer's disease.

Telecoms benefited after Lehman Brothers upgraded U.K. telecommunications operator O2, but said the firm actually prefers Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone and France Telecom. All named companies gained in early trading. Lehman also upgraded U.K. brewer Scottish & Newcastle PLC, with shares of that company rising in early trading.

As of 6:47 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 13.40 points or 0.26%, to trade at 5,245.60. The CAC 40 had gained 22.44 points or 0.52%, to trade at 4,322.75. The DAX had gained 46.55 points or 1.01%, to trade at 4,644.52.

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