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OI Technical Staff : 7/12/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 5:58:10 PM

Gulf of Mexico area snapshot at this Link ... Interested in an operator, and where they have platforms? Click the scroll down menu by operator.

Use your "Google Earth" to get an aerial view of your favorite block! Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 5:43:03 PM

Apache Corp. (APA) $70.29 +0.74% ... saying it has restored essentially all of its Gulf of Mexico production. Apache's gross operated production averaged 650 million cubic feet of natural gas and 65,000 barrels of liquid hydrocarbons prior to Hurrican Dennis. As of Saturday, July 9, APA had shut in approximately 70% of its gas production and almost all of its oil production.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 5:34:25 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 5:14:53 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 5:10:38 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 4:16:02 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ...

Day trade carry over stopped in 1/2 bullish position of Bonso Electronics (BNSO) at $6.10 ($-0.11, or -1.77%)

Swing trade stopped in 1/2 bullish position of Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) at $36.35 ($+1.75, or +5.06%).

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 4:05:38 PM

Buffalo Wild (BWLD) $30.07 +1.58% Link ... jumps to $31.70 in extended session after company announces preliminary Q2 results. Company saying it sees Q2 earnings per diluted share to range from $0.20-$0.22. Revenues at $48.2 million. Q2 same store sales up 2.7%.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 3:59:26 PM

Incredibly, the SOX has bounced again off the 30-minute Keltner line currently at 454.56. The RLX, however, currently sits right on the analogous Keltner line on its 30-minute chart, at 463.90, with the RLX at 464.07.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 3:57:14 PM

Correctional Services Corp. (CSCQ) $4.15 +22.05% ... possible "jail break." Stock has been showing up on percentage gainer list last couple of sessions. Looks to close above a nice 4.5-year base. Company recently announced it had begun operations at its new 1,202-bed South Texas Detention Complex, contracting for the Department of Homeland Security, Immigration and Custom Enforcement.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 3:52:17 PM

RUT likely producing a doji at the top of a climb, just under/at daily Keltner resistance. Can't just assume that the evening-star formation will confirm, but watch for that tomorrow. TRAN producing, so far, a small tweezers-top formation at the top of a climb, bringing it down to test its 100-sma and 200-sma. It's still holding above the 200-sma as I type, so there's some mixture of evidence here. The RLX and SOX do not yet show any particular weakness going into the close, so we may have to wait until tomorrow to see how they behave, but the RUT's dive off its HOD deserves some attention.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 3:47:18 PM

QQQQ just broke the previous low and is currently testing daily R1 at 38.30 from above. 72 SMA support is 3 cents below it, the first goal for bears seeking to stall the 30 min cycle upphase.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 3:46:07 PM

RLX and SOX still holding above 30-minute Keltner support. Testing it now.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 3:44:13 PM

We've seen other indices zoom up once they broke through known resistance, so last night, I had a quandary when deciding what to say about the OEX if it was to break through 570 this morning. What I said was that the OEX had an 572-ish upside Keltner target on one chart (30-minute one) and higher on another, but that the OEX had a habit of breaking through 570 on an intraday basis and then closing below that level. I cautioned bulls who were considering a breakout play to have profit-protecting plans in place, particularly for a test of 572. Now the OEX is pulling back, not seriously yet, but it wouldn't feel particularly good to bulls to have that old pattern from May--breakout and subsequent close beneath 570--repeat today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 3:43:17 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,222.61, DIA $105.21, QQQQ $38.32

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 3:42:10 PM

IBM (IBM) $80.32 +1.72% Link ... edges into its 04/15 gap. Should be a double top buy signal at $78, not a triple. I have the stock having traded $78 on 05/05/05. Link . If using Dorsey/Wright, then "bullish triangle" triggered at $78.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 3:41:58 PM

First 30-minute support for the SOX is that Keltner line that's now all the way up at 454.58, the line that's been supporting the SOX on 30-minute closes since Thursday morning. The SOX is at 455.66 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 3:36:08 PM

Volume breadth holds positive, +2.1:1 for the NYSE and +1.8:1 for the Nasdaq, TRIN neutral-bullish at .74 and the TRINQ bullish verging on extreme at .45.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 3:35:17 PM

The RUT didn't even bother with that right shoulder, but instead dropped below what would have been the neckline.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 3:31:23 PM

LSI Logic (LSI) $10.12 +0.19% Link ... was thinking day trade short earlier this session, but when NYSE blew up, 1, 2, and 3-lettered stocks better left alone. Checking short interest here and as of June 15, 11.6 million short (highest in 12 monts) with days to cover at 2.19. Careful if trying to pick a near-term top on August expire.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 3:28:50 PM

Zooming out to the 30 and 60 min charts, yesterday's aborted downphases reversed to the upside today, but remain at lower highs compared with the new price highs. This results in a potential bearish divergence, if the price reverses from or close to current levels. It is not a bearish divergence until new sell signals print, resulting in a confirmed lower oscillator high against the higher price high- in the case of the QQQQ, it would take at least one 30 min close below 38.20 to do so.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 3:28:40 PM

RUT falling more steeply now after approaching the daily Keltner resistance, or at least the fall looks steep if you watch it on a one-minute chart! I wouldn't be surprised to see a rise back toward 673.50, the right shoulder of a possible H&S pattern on the five-minute chart, and then we see what happens.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 3:22:08 PM

Hanover Compressor (HC) $12.35 +1.64% ... cook'n with gas. With June 15 short interest at 8.91 days to cover (7.38 million shares), some bears will be looking to cover their ...

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 3:18:00 PM

August crude oil is trading lower by .125 at 60.50 here in the first minutes of the evening session.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 3:16:29 PM

By the way, I STILL think the SOX looks way extended with relationship to the number of 30-minute closes above that Keltner line, despite my 3:15 post. I haven't suggested any bearish entries, and I'm not now, either. I'm just concerned about readers protecting bullish profits.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 3:15:28 PM

Symantec (SYMC) $23.47 +3.80% Link ... checking for updates. Sets up for virus scan at 200-day SMA.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 3:15:01 PM

The SOX is above the 453.95 high from November, 2004, now testing the H&S formation's neckline from late 2003 and early 2004. If we can take this seriously as a breakout above a long rectangular consolidation period, then the SOX's upside target would be the width of that rectangular pattern, so at about 510-515, depending on where you put the boundaries. Doesn't mean that it would be reached all at once, even if we can take it seriously, but, depending on how the day ends, the SOX looks as if it may close a second day now above the daily Keltner resistance that it usually doesn't stay above for more than a few days. Would need to see a big reversal tomorrow, perhaps, to continue that pattern.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 3:13:43 PM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 115.68 +1.16% Link ... sets up for test of 06/17/05 relative highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 3:12:05 PM

The return to the highs for QQQQ invalidates the potential h&s pattern noted earlier. Volume surged along with price there as well. The benefit of the doubt remains with the bulls above the 38.20-.22 line.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 3:10:12 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 3:09:35 PM

OEX 30-minute upside target is 572.62, with the OEX currently at 571.97.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 3:03:36 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link ... INX.X couldn't quite make it above 200.00, YHOO couldn't quite make it above $36.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 2:57:16 PM

It's sloppy and small, but there's a possible head and shoulders forming on the QQQQ 3 min candles here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 2:53:53 PM

Swing trade bullish stop alert ... for Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $36.35

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 2:53:31 PM

The RUT has fallen through the one-minute 21-ema, not bouncing from above it as it did earlier. Its decline is not a steep one so far, so it could still bounce, but it may now be vulnerable to a test of the one-minute 100/130-ema's at 671.92-671.53.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 2:52:13 PM

The SOX now has 40+ thirty-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 453.76.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 2:51:53 PM

Yahoo! (YHOO) ... most active options July $37.50 C (5,465) $0.11, July $35 C (5,221) $1.50. The July $37.50 (443) $1.15, aren't flinching at this point.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 2:50:59 PM

Potential for an evening-star formation on the OEX's 30-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 2:49:38 PM

RUT coming down for a test of its one-minute 21-ema again. Bounce again? Or fall through it?

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 2:48:39 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) ... day trader's chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 2:48:22 PM

OEX at daily Keltner resistance, although this resistance isn't as strong as that found near 578.43. The OEX is also near 30-minute Keltner resistance, at 572.50. I can't say it often enough, but, bulls, enjoy the flow while it continues, but protect profits. It's not until we see a real pullback that we'll see how it takes place and know how bullish this all really is. The OEX is back inside that broadening formation that proved so difficult in May and June. We don't know how it will close today.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 2:47:21 PM

Session low for ten year notes, ZN at 111 27/32, TNX up 4.1 bps at 4.143%, testing the 4.14%-4.16%.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 2:41:43 PM

The RUT is still bouncing from that one-minute 21-ema, currently at 673.08, but it's jammed now against daily Keltner resistance at 675.18, with the RUT at 673.57. I had said yesterday that I wasn't sure the RUT would reach its then-674.50-ish upside target, but it's awfully close to that now. Bulls, protect profits.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 2:37:54 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert for Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $36.41 +1.81% ... to $36.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 2:35:23 PM

QQQQ continues to chop betweeen daily R1 and R2, the 30 min channel finally catching up to the price at 38.40, with 72 SMA up to 38.17. QQQQ bears need a break of 38.20-.22, confirmed by a move below the 72 SMA to suggest an intraday shift in bias. While volume is light and volume breadth weaker than we've seen since Thursday, its still positive.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 2:26:47 PM

QQQQ $38.40 +0.73% .... gets DAILY R2 Yahoo! (YHOO) $36.49 +2.02% ... DAILY R2. WEEKLY R2 ($35.82) got gapped this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 2:25:13 PM

August crude oil +1.75 here at 60.675 with 5 minutes left in the day session. Ten year notes are down at a session low, TNX up 3.4 to 4.136%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 2:16:14 PM

Volume is declining on the pullback here, a bullish sign, but the short cycles look maxxed out, or close to it, across the indices. This is either a bull-flag or a descending triangle forming at the top. Bears need a break below the previous highs at the very least- otherwise, the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 2:12:16 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 2:12:02 PM

RUT tested yesterday's high, exceeding it by a bit, and now drops into a test of the one-minute 21-ema from which it's been bouncing since about 1:15. Bulls want to see it provide support again.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 2:10:56 PM

TRAN again finding resistance and turning down toward in the consolidation pattern near the day's low. This is one of the things that worries me about the market rally. I know techs often lead and small-caps often do, too, but the TRAN and Dow are important to watch, too, no matter that the Dow is not a broad-based index.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 2:08:24 PM

OEX 30-minute target now 572.40, but upside breakouts above 570 have been dangerous long plays for the OEX, so protect profits if bullish. I'm going to sound like Chicken Little after a while, but you can't say I've been urging short plays, either. Not when I haven't seen evidence yet that they're workable. So far, it's been like catching flying knives, but I certainly share enough of Marc's concerns being expressed on the Futures side to be looking for evidence that all is not right with the bullish world we're seeing here, and some things do worry me. That's why I keep suggesting that those bullish profits be protected.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 2:05:46 PM

Volume breadth up to +2.07:1 on the NYSE and +2.11 on the Nasdaq, with QQQQ just reaching the halfway mark to yesterday's total volume for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 2:04:34 PM

Nice buy program came in as the S&P e-mini (es05u) broke above its 06/22/05 contract high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 2:03:18 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 2:01:17 PM

Bullish swing trade update alert ... for Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $36.49 +2.04% ... let's raise bullish stop further to $36.31 here, but let's see if they'll run her to the close. Will either close out the position at newly established stop, or at the close. BLUE #3 $36.47, BLUE #4 $36.56, BLUE #5 $36.72, BLUE #6 $36.88.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 2:00:54 PM

The RUT is back to bouncing off its 1-minute 21-ema, now at 670.80, so that the RUT should be soon ready to trade sideways or dip to touch it as it's rather extended above it. Bulls want to see the RUT keep bouncing from that MA, and then charging above yesterday's high. They don't want to see a sharp pullback after this stop-running move. They want to see it catch fire to the upside. A pullback to that one-minute MA wouldn't be a sharp pullback, of course.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 1:58:19 PM

Bullish swing trade cancel target alert ... for Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $36.47 +1.98%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 1:57:16 PM

Couple of buy program have come in.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 1:56:02 PM

Thirty-minute OEX target now 574.34. Bulls should have profit-protecting plans in place for that test, although the 60-minute chart suggests a higher target.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 1:55:08 PM

QQQQ is breaking 30 min channel resistance here, current high at 38.36 falling 5 cents shy of daily R2. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 1:53:44 PM

Prime stop-running time of day here, but that doesn't mean the move will be automatically reversed. Bulls don't want to see it reversed, however.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 1:53:37 PM

NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 7,412.44 +0.40% ... sets up for test of all-time high from 03/07/05.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 1:51:17 PM

The OEX is now above yesterday's 570.12 high, at 570.28 as I type. Needs to hold there, and needs the continued cooperation of its retailers, with the RLX looking so overbought on a short-term basis to me, but not yet pulling back. At all.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 1:51:03 PM

Session highs for QQQ, NQ and ES, the Dow still lagging.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 1:47:42 PM

Watching for the possibility of a new LOD on the TRAN. Hasn't dropped to a new low yet. Other indices among those that often lead the markets are still climbing, such as the RLX and SOX. Watching how they behave, too.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 1:47:41 PM

LSI Logic (LSI) ... July/August option chain at this Link ... take into consideration what we saw in Internet Initiative (IIJI) yesterday afternoon. I'm too cautious about holding NAKED calls on this name (IIJI).

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 1:40:09 PM

Volume breadth is now positive 1.18:1 on the NYSE, 1.2:1 on the Nasdaq. Volume has picked up on the surge, though the Dow/YM is lagging, never even approaching the session high. QQQQ has pulled back from the 30 min keltner channel breach to retest the 38.20 line at former resistance.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 1:39:49 PM

TRAN still finding resistance at a 30-minute Keltner line currentloy at 3600.87, with the TRAN currently at 3596.57. The TRAN had bumped higher a few minutes ago with other indices, but so far, that resistance near 3600-3601 holds.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 1:38:30 PM

RLX still moving higher into the 462-466.68 resistance band, but those 30-minute candles continue to lack strength. The candle bodies get smaller and smaller. May soon be time for a pullback to the breakout zone to retest it, or a sideways move while the breakout support rises. First support now at 462.26 and next from 459.96-460.86.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 1:35:53 PM

SOX still charging higher, at 454.19 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 1:35:21 PM

QQQQ is breaking the session high, printing 38.22. Current 30 min channel resistance is 38.25, 60 min at 38.27: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 1:34:21 PM

OEX testing yesterday's high, having inched a few cents above it, although it's just below yesterday's and today's high now. Bulls want to see that 30-minute Keltner support hold now and do now want to see a double (triple?) top formation confirmed by a fall below 568.29, the trough between the peaks. Be careful of making any assumptions as we're in a prime stop-running time of day. On a pop higher that holds, bulls should protect positions near 572.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 1:31:56 PM

August crude oil +1.80 at 60.725 here, off a high of 61.225. 50 tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 1:31:06 PM

The RUT may give us our first indication as to whether all these minor pullbacks are bull flags, as they may be. The RUT is coming up to test a descending trendline off yesterday's high, pushing above it as I type. This is a best-fit trendline excluding this morning's open that popped above the trendline. A bull flag would need to be confirmed by a push above Monday's high, of course. The RUT, usually a market leader, hasn't been pushing to new highs like the RLX and SOX today.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 1:28:48 PM

QQQQ is 11M shares away from half of yesterday's volume, coming in for a retest of the session high as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 1:28:41 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $36.27 +1.42% ... July/August option chain sorted by open interest at this Link ... The OI at $35 Call has more "risk" in my opinion, from Market Maker manipulation into Friday's expire. Thus I'm more protective with gains at this point.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 1:23:03 PM

Again, as a reminder, yesterday's OEX HOD was 570.12, with the 61.8% retracement of the decline off the March high into the April low at just over 570 and with 570 proving to be upside resistance on daily closes through much of May and early June. The OEX still sort of maintains a 30-minute upside target of 572.14, and the consolidation at the top of the OEX's climb now begins to look a little like a bullish right triangle with a flat top and ascending bottom. I'm not taking this at face value and assuming that upside target will be hit, however, as 570 is a breakout level for the OEX and a dangerous one for bulls.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 1:17:04 PM

The 15B 4-week T-bill auction generated a bid to cover of 2.82, the weakest demand since June 1st, with a high-yield of 3.008%, the highest in 4 years. Indirect bidders (foreign central banks) took a mere 3B of the total.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 1:14:05 PM

We're into the lunchtime lull, the time of stop-running moves. The prime time is not yet here, but be on the watch in case a quick move sees no follow-through, but is soon reversed.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 1:13:44 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 1:09:50 PM

RLX still chugging higher, too, as is the SOX, but the RLX's 30-minute candlesticks are beginning to look a little on the weak side. There's a problem with assuming any kind of pullback, though. Bears are going to need to get something going soon or all these minor pullbacks or sideways consolidations on the indices that are even showing that much uncertainty, are going to look like just so many bull flags that will resolve to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 1:04:34 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 1:03:52 PM

Even the short cycles are chopped up at this point, with QQQQ's 30 min cycle bands narrowing on the tight range. With 36.3M shares traded so far, this is set to be the lightest session since Thursday, by a wide margin. Updated intraday chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 12:56:36 PM

On the TRAN's 15-minute chart, it has begun to look more vulnerable to 3567.76-3579.57, but that requires a new LOD, of course.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 12:55:45 PM

The OEX still coils in a tight range near the day's high, now coiling along the Keltner line currently at 569.13 rather than finding support or resistance at that line. The OEX is at 569.52 as I type, with the 570 resistance still holding. The upside target on the 30-minute chart is 569.52.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 12:50:17 PM

TRAN coiling just above the LOD, between the 100-sma and the 200-sma.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 12:49:43 PM

SOX still bouncing from that 30-minute Keltner support, now at 451.41. This seems sooo extended and in need of at least a stronger short-term pullback, with FORTY 30-minute closes above that Keltner line and with that bearish price/RSI divergence, but it's not stopping yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 12:45:14 PM




Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 12:42:14 PM

Session low for ten year notes at 111 59/64, TNX up 3 bps at 4.132%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 12:41:48 PM

The short cycle indicators are turning up here within the trendless 30 and 60 min channels, but QQQQ has yet to break the previous 38.15 high. So far, the lack of downside and the lack of significant correction from the intraday cycles looks bullish to me, though often we'll see successive tractionless cycles during op-ex week. The clock gets run on bulls, then bears, then bulls again as the price holds around its targeted expiry strikes. If so, then this could turn out to be a long week.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 12:40:31 PM

Looking at a possible day trade short in shares of LSI Logic (LSI) $9.93 -1.68% if we should see a pop back near $10.05. Sitting on RED #4 here.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 12:39:48 PM

The SOX shows bearish price/RSI divergence on the 15- and 30-minute charts, but it's still holding stubbornly to 30-minute support, now at 451.35 (on 30-minute closes), with the SOX at 452.26. Dangerous to assume just yet that the SOX is going to roll over, as there hasn't been the barest of confirmations yet that the bearish divergence means anything, but remember that since late 2003, bullish SOX positions have been living on borrowed time once the SOX tests or even closes slightly above the daily Keltner resistance, as it's been doing the last couple of days. This could be the time the SOX finally breaks out to the upside, but experience on the last few tests urges caution with bullish positions here. I haven't seen anything yet that screams for a new bearish entry, yet, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 12:35:35 PM

Ten year notes are at the lows, with TNX up 2.7 bps at 4.131%. But the intraday pattern has a sideways/descending and potentially bull-flaggish look to it. 4.14%-4.16% confluence resistance continues to be an important test for bond bears/yield bulls.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2005 12:33:36 PM

Dateline CNN One man arrested in last week's London terror bombings; one bomber likely died during attacks, officials say.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 12:29:07 PM

The OEX is just trading in a narrow band near yesterday's high. Nothing much else to say. Still watching the TRAN's test of the day's low, and the RLX as it challenges the day's high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 12:26:36 PM

Speaking of "Max Pain," the data source I usually get figures from is not operating. May have gone out of business.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 12:25:33 PM

Volume breadth is still mixed and mostly neutral with overall volume very light, adv:decv 1.04:1 on the NYSE and -1.27:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ and the futures are all just south of unchanged, with the intrday cycles mostly directionless at this point as well.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 12:25:46 PM

Symantec (SYMC) $23.15 +2.38% ... big volume today in the July $22.50 puts (19,199 : 45,894). July $22.50 Calls trade (5,910 : 44,035). Guessing July's "Max Pain" is something around there ($22.50)

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 12:19:27 PM

The RLX is still hovering near the day's high, at the bottom of the 562-566.68 resistance zone.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 12:17:49 PM

Host America (CAFE) $6.35 +103.52% Link ... decent "pop" after the company said it would install its LightMasterPlus product in 10 Wal-Mart (WMT) $49.86 +0.12% Link stores. Wal-Mart had been testing Host America's systems in one of its Texas stores and reported a 19% energy savings!

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 12:09:17 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 12:05:45 PM

TRAN testing the day's low, but hasn't breached it yet.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 12:02:55 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 11:58:33 AM

Session high for August crude at 60.95 here, +2.025.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 11:57:47 AM

The OEX looks a little weaker than the SOX with respect to an analogous 30-minute Keltner line, with the OEX's at 568.91 and the OEX currently at 568.98, testing it.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 11:56:48 AM

SOX STILL maintaining 30-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 450.92, and it looks possible that it will into the close of this 30-minute period. The SOX has been holding this 30-minute support (with the Keltner line rising, of course) since Thursday morning. Below this, 448.50 looks like next support, but before we consider that, the SOX needs to break this support, and it hasn't yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 11:54:38 AM

QQQQ is glued to the 72 SMA here as the short cycle indicators drift lower- bad news for bears, as the clock is again being run on the downphase, as it was yesterday for the 30 min cycle. Volume is very light approaching noon at 31.1M QQQQ shares, but so far, the price has been quite resilient.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 11:55:29 AM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 203.36 -0.80% Link ... broke above bar charts downward trend yesterday, but have some trouble with 50% retracement of 206 (05/10/04 lows to 11/07/04 relative high). Re-testing trend here.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 11:43:30 AM

Instead of heading up into another challenge of the 15-minute Keltner support, the BIX instead threatens to fall beneath 365.83 support on a 15-minute close, looking more vulnerable to 364.70-365.11, if not down toward 363.30. The BIX's 200-sma is at 364.20, with the BIX currently at 365.58.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 11:44:22 AM

Symantec (SYMC) $23.05 +1.99% Link ... mentioned this computer security software maker as bullish candidate on Friday. Breaks out of nice base and multi-month high today. Link I'm moving up a stop to break even in personal account.

About the same % gains as Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) from Friday's entry.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 11:41:15 AM

SOX still holding above that 30-minute Keltner support at 450.91 (on closes).

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 11:38:53 AM

Boots&Coots (AMEX:WEL) $1.25 +6.83% Link ... a "blast from the past" makes a new 52-weeker in today's session.

Tab Gilles : 7/12/2005 11:33:49 AM


Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 11:32:41 AM

S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 462.41 +0.74% Link ... today's trade at 460 good enough to have this economically sensitive sector giving a second-consecutive buy signal.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 11:31:43 AM

SOX maintaining 30-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 450.87, perhaps coming down to retest it now. Bulls want to see it hold; bears don't.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 11:30:29 AM

No new LOD for the TRAN just yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 11:29:35 AM

QQQQ tests rising triangle trendline support here Link , also lined up with the rising 72 SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 11:27:49 AM

Able Energy (ABLE) $18.10 +10.77% Link ... bar chart compelling for 1/2 bullish positions. PnF chart shaping back up after testing bullish support trend. Trade at $19.50 currently needed for a reversing PnF buy signal. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 11:26:16 AM

The OEX is consolidating in a tight range near yesterday's high. The 30-minute chart says that as long as it's preserving 30-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 568.82, it preserves the 572 upside target, but the OEX hasn't been able to build on that possibility so far. No clear direction as the OEX hovers just below yesterday's high, just above the Keltner support that will change that short-term outlook. Dropping down to test it as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 11:20:03 AM

TRAN pressured lower by a 15-minute Keltner line currently at 3605.50, but that line is pressuring the TRAN toward 3600 support again. There's been no new low and no move below the 200-sma, either. If there's a new low, the TRAN looks vulnerable to 3578.34 and perhaps even to 3564.83.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 11:17:56 AM

Because it's op-ex week, the CBOE total p/c ratio should be viewed with suspicion. But the ratio has jumped from yesterday's mid-.60 range to .97 and .96 readings for the past hour. This is a secondary indicator at best, but the change should be signalling caution for bears.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 11:15:55 AM

The BIX's 15-minute Keltner resistance is still holding, but so is first support, so far. The resistance turns higher, at 366.76 currently. The support is at 365.88. Bulls want the support to hold on 15-minute closes, and bears want it to fail.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 11:14:51 AM

Ten year notes are back down to the lows, with TNX up 2 bps at 4.122%, still chopping along below 4.14% resistance. August crude is up 3.1% at 60.75, off a high of 60.85.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 11:10:10 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 11:08:11 AM

A hint of a broadening formation on the top of the MID's (S&P Midcap 400 Index) climb off the Thursday low. No breakout either direction.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 11:06:44 AM

SOX continues charging higher, but there's price/RSI bearish divergence now on the 15-minute chart. Hasn't mattered a bit so far, but keep watching.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 11:04:32 AM

BIX bouncing from 15-minute Keltner support, so far not showing any follow-through after completing an evening-star formation on the 15-minute chart. The TRAN is the only index I've seen so far that has followed through and met a downside target. There may be others, but this is the only one I've found. And, once it met that target and predictably bounced, it so far appears to be finding resistance where it would be expected. Hasn't confirmed by a new LOD, though. Still, watching the TRAN continues to be useful, though, as the TRAN often serves as a leading index, too.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 11:03:35 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 11:02:26 AM

Anyone taking bets on just what position (long/short) the traders are that want the photo of BP's Thunder Horse rig?

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 11:02:01 AM

RLX back to challenge that 462-466.68 resistance, with the RLX now at 463.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 10:59:10 AM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $6.86 -3.51% Link ... #2 most active. Downgraded at UBS based on valuation.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 10:59:25 AM

The TRAN bounced back above 3600 again, up slightly above the 100-sma. It's testing Keltner resistance at 3607.64 on 15-minute closes, with the TRAN currently at 3603.79. Bears want to see the TRAN roll down through the day's low. Bulls want to see it back above the Keltner resistance from 3607.64-3621.40. That resistance is trying to firm, but it looks as if the TRAN could still zoom up through it on a strong move. For now, it may look stronger than support, but perhaps not strong enough to prevent a continuing test of resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 10:56:32 AM

Volume breadth is positive 1.05:1 on the NYSE, 1.19:1 on the Nasdaq, QQQQ hanging just below the session highs. The rise from yesterday's afternoon low could be a rising triangle, support 38.05, resistance 38.19: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 10:55:05 AM

Videsh Sanchar (VSL) $14.97 +14.36% Link ... "gap fest" continues.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 10:50:54 AM

Infosys Tech (INFY) $71.59 -8.01% Link ... India's second-largest outsourcing company trades weak after saying quarterly profits (Apr-June) rose 47% vs. year-ago to $122 million, or $0.45 per share from $83 million. The company said profits would have been $3.44 million higher except for depreciation of the euro and pound against the Indian rupee. The company added that it derives 23.9% of its revenues from those currencies.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 10:48:53 AM

Looks as if that was a bad tick on the OEX. Is it now vulnerable to that 568.15-ish level, though? Other writers have pointed out that this so-called "bad ticks" sometimes indicate where the vulnerability exists, and the OEX is now turning down again.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 10:48:11 AM

Session high for August crude at 60.725, +3.05% or 1.8 here.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 10:47:06 AM

What was that? Was that a bad tick on the OEX? The OEX dipped down slightly below an ascending trendline off the day's five-minute lows and then immediately sprang right back up. Bears shouldn't be liking that spring, if it holds, but let's see where it takes the OEX.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 10:45:59 AM

QQQQ is back to yesterday's and today's high from a higher low. 30 min channel resistance has risen to 38.28.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 10:44:40 AM

The OEX is rising to retest a Keltner support line that it broke through earlier today. That line is at 568.99 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX currently at 569.05 as I type, The breaks below this Keltner line haven't been convincing so far, I don't think, but the OEX does look a bit more vulnerable to a test of 567.28-567.89 than it did earlier. Remember that 567-567.30 serves as historical S/R on long-term charts, so I consider it an important level to watch, if it's tested.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 10:44:03 AM

Lucent Tech (LU) $3.13 +2.98% Link ... atop this morning's most active list after announcing it received a $500 million order from MetroPCS Communications for new wireless networking equipment.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 10:41:19 AM

The BIX has dropped a bit over the last 15 or 20 minutes, now testing a level that it needs to maintain in order to keep testing upper Keltner resistance. I mentioned earlier that the BIX was testing that upper Keltner resistance, resistance that held twice yesterday. The BIX did close one 15-minute period minimally above it, but then completed an evening-star formation on its 15-minute chart. This test is now an important one as it will help tell whether there will be follow-through on that reversal signal. The line in question is at 565.85, with the BIX currently at 565.82.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 10:41:15 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 10:40:14 AM

Volume breadth flips positive 1.09:1 for the Nasdaq, negative 1.06:1 for the NYSE. At 21.8M QQQQ shares traded so far, overall volume is very light.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 10:38:12 AM

RLX near the day's high, just a little off, but moving higher.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 10:37:29 AM

SOX still climbing.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 10:35:30 AM

TRAN bouncing back into a test of 3600 and the 100-sma at 3600.73, with the TRAN at 3597.09 as I type. Important test.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 10:35:27 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... for Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $36.24 +1.34% ... to $35.90. Nearing trade target of $36.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 10:33:50 AM

Session high for August crude oil here at 60.40, +1.475 or 2.5%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 10:31:30 AM

The short cycle indicators have turned down, but with very little vigor, price still unwilling to break the 72 SMA at 38.05 for longer than a few minutes. The 30 and 60 min cycles remain directionless, still marking yeterday's high-low range. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 10:26:20 AM

The TRAN did hit its downside target for its H&S, visible on its 15-minute chart, hitting a low of 3589.31 about five minutes ago. It's just a few points above the 200-sma, a few points below the 100-sma. Market bulls do not want to see the TRAN end the day anywhere near this level and especially not below the 200-sma.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 10:33:48 AM

Englobal (AMEX:ENG) $5.48 +10.7% Link ... busting a move above $5.38-$5.47 "zone of resistance" from bar chart retracement work. (see 06/21/05 MM)

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 10:23:21 AM

Ten year notes have firmed within negative territory, TNX down to a 1.1 bp gain at 4.111%. August crude is up 1.40 here at 60.325.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 10:22:32 AM

RUT now easing down into a test of its five-minute 100/130-ema's, stepping down along a test of these averages on longer and longer time intervals. Well, not too long, since we're just up to the five-minute ones, but yesterday the RUT was skipping along the one-minute averages. Smile. The five-minute 100/130-ema's are at 667.21 and 665.67, respectively. The RUT is at 667.38 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 10:19:57 AM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $36.35 +1.65% ... announced today that it has launched a new job search engine that enables job seekers to find jobs from across the Internet (www.hotjobs.com). In addition to providing advertised job listings on the Yahoo! HotJobs site, the company will now also employ its leading search technology to crawl the Internet, offering job seekers listings from other employer and job-related Web sites.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 10:20:25 AM

SOX still above 450, at 450.75 as I type. SOX bulls want to see the SOX maintain 30-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 449.52, as that line has been supporting the SOX on 30-minute closes since Thursday morning.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 10:18:23 AM

Depending on where you place the neckline for the TRAN's H&S on its five- and 15-minute charts, its downside target may be at about 3590 or slightly below. The TRAN is at 3594.40 as I type, showing that bears had enough strength, short-term, to confirm the formation and drive the TRAN almost to its target, at least. May get there all the way, but just hasn't yet. The drop has driven the TRAN all the way slightly below its 100-sma and down almost to a test of its 200-sma at 3582.83. It would not be a good thing for bulls for the TRAN to end the day below its 200-sma, producing a tweezers-top reversal signal.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 10:18:14 AM

Volume breadth is now negative on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, 1.15:1 and 1.63:1 respectively, QQQQ testing 72 SMA support here at the session low.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 10:13:39 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 10:12:15 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 10:09:36 AM

QQQQ is coming in for another test of 72 SMA support at 38.04, the short cycle upphase overbought but showing no sign of a significant turn yet. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 10:09:07 AM

The RUT is below the three-minute 100/130-ema's for the first time since Thursday morning.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 10:07:38 AM

OEX bulls want to see the OEX maintain 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 569.33. If there's a 15-minute close appreciably below that, the OEX looks vulnerable to 568 and then 567.15, and perhaps even to 564.32-564.96, although I think we can't jump our guns too quickly in assuming that downside Keltner or any other type of targets will be met.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 10:04:41 AM

The TRAN has confirmed its H&S-ish formation on its 15-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 10:03:54 AM

RLX is approaching/testing 462-466.68 resistance, with the 466.68 level marking the year's high, perhaps the all-time high, although I'm never sure if QCharts is carrying all historical values. RLX at 460.91 as I type, off the 462.29 day's high. Double top in the making or a new breakout? Bulls, including OEX ones, continue to protect profits.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 10:03:37 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 10:01:27 AM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $45.27 +3% Link ... notable all-time high.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 10:00:25 AM

RLX still climbing.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 9:59:35 AM

TRAN hovering at those same three-minute 100/130-ema's that the RUT is testing.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 9:57:26 AM

The Fed announces a 5.5B overnight repo, which results in a net 1.5B drain for the day.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 9:57:25 AM

For reference, yesterday's OEX high was 570.12, and the OEX is currently at 569.79. A confirmation of a double-top formation on the 15-minute chart would come on a drop below 567.49, with the condition that the OEX not reach an appreciably higher high.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 9:56:10 AM

QQQQ tests yesterday's high here, just below 30 and 60 min channel resistance at 38.20-.22.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 9:54:05 AM

$RLX retesting the day's high. BIX doing so, too, also testing upper Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart as it does so, with that resistance turning the BIX back twice yesterday, with that resistance now at 366.37 and the BIX at 366.29.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 9:52:09 AM

The SOX reversed sharply from its earlier high, while QQQQ continues to chop along just above its 72 SMA. Volume breadth remains positive on teh NYSE but negative on the Nasdaq, direction and bias still up for grabs. Hopefully the reaction to the Fed's disposition of its expiring 7B repo in the coming minutes will break the narrow range here one way or the other.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 9:50:26 AM

Transports dropping. The TRAN may be getting close to confirming a H&S-ish formation on top of its 15-minute chart, with a neckline at about 3607.15, although the formation is rough enough that it's somewhat difficult to identify the exact neckline. The TRAN is at 3611.46 as I type. Remember, until bullish exuberance is proven undone, don't at all assume these formations will confirm. Watch.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 9:47:39 AM

The OEX is still snarled in Keltner lines at the top of its 15-minute channels, without a clear bias yet as to whether there will be a breakout or a move down below nearest support. Both the BIX and RLX have reached higher highs than yesterday's, though, and we know the SOX is surging. Wonder what sector is keeping the OEX from performing as they are? Maybe Jeff knows already, but if not, I'll try to figure it out once things slow down.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 9:45:28 AM

RUT not surging with some of those other previous market leaders, such as the RLX.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 9:44:24 AM

RLX surging, above yesterday's high.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 9:44:00 AM

SOX at a new high, at 452.53 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 9:43:42 AM

Wilshire 5000 may be bouncing into a retest of yesterday's high, at 12,206.05, with the Wilshire 5000 currently at 12,200.42.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 9:42:38 AM

Crown Castle (CCI) $21.25 +0.42% Link ... company saying it purchased 10.4 million shares of stock for $175.8 million in second quarter.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 9:42:52 AM

The RUT, a market leader yesterday and lately, drops back to test those three-minute 100/130-ema's that it bounced from late yesterday afternoon. They're at 669.13 and 668.19, respectively, with the RUT currently at 669.56 and perhaps already attempting a first bounce. It's tentative as yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 9:40:43 AM

Volume breadth is barely positive on the NYSE, 1.07:1, and negative on the Nasdaq 1.84:1. The TRIN is neutral at .76, TRINQ at the high end of neutral at 1.0.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 9:38:59 AM

The Wilshire 5000 turns lower, but has Keltner and other support nearby, down to 12,174.32. The Wilshire 5000 is at 12,187.92 as I type. A drop below 12,155.54 will confirm a double-top formation on the 15-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 9:38:16 AM





Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 9:38:11 AM

Darden Restaurants (DRI) $33.75 +3.87% Link ... new 52-weeker.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 9:37:37 AM

SOX staying above 450, at 450.72 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 9:35:46 AM

OEX still hovering at the breakout level on its Keltner channel, slightly below that but still above the 569-ish next Keltner support on 15-minute closes.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 9:33:57 AM

Session low for ten year notes, TNX up 1.7 bps at 4.119%. Upside resistance is at 4.14%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 9:33:36 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... for Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $36.16 +1.11% ... to $35.49.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 9:32:21 AM

The OEX opens at the breakout level on its 15-minute Keltner chart. No bias yet as to whether it will break below the 569-ish next support or rise into a test of yesterday's high.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 9:31:26 AM

SOX opens at the flatline, moves slightly lower, but only slightly. Daily Keltner support/resistance (perhaps hasn't fully cleared the resistance yet) at 447.65 on daily closes.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2005 9:31:19 AM

Bullish day trade carryover stop alert ... for Bonso Electronics (BNSO) $6.10 -1.29%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 9:18:13 AM

Session high for August crude oil, +.75 at 59.675.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 9:17:26 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle remains stalled midway through its downphase, the 60 min cycle stalled just at the outset of its downphase, while the daily cycle continues to point up at the outset of its upphase following its buy signal last week. The intraday cycles are still looking for at least a downside correction, while the daily points higher. The 30 and 60 min cycle channels are aligned nearly perfectly with yesterday's high and low, with resistance at 38.19, support at 37.87. The 72 SMA at 38.04 dictates the bias for the 30 min cycle- bullish above, bearish below.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 9:08:35 AM

Another strong day for the OEX yesterday. It ended the day jammed up against 570 resistance. Remember during May and early June when the OEX ranged, producing daily closes at or below 570 and daily closes at or above 566, with the lower end of that range gradually moving down toward 564? So, what do we do with a close right at 570? Will the OEX settle right back into that range or is something more bullish happening? There was no dip yesterday big enough to consider a buy-the-dip play, but do bulls buy a breakout over 570, knowing how the OEX behaved for a month each time it closed near 570? Did last week's dip shake out all weak hands and allow for a stronger climb now?

I just don't know. The indices that have broken out have moved strongly to the upside after their breakouts. For example, the RUT and Wilshire 5000 have shown strength, as I've been noting. The SOX broke above the descending trendline off last year's late-December high and then closed above 450 and the 2/28 intraday high, and it may be preparing to do just what the RUT and Wilshire 5000 did after their breakouts--move up strongly. The Nasdaq has broken above the neckline of an inverse H&S on its daily chart. But the SOX closed just above a daily Keltner chart boundary that it rarely closes above for more than a few days. That's been a pattern since late 2003, so I hesitate to jump in here and say, yes, this time it's different. As the SOX was last hitting that channel line on 6/23, I was warning SOX bulls of the tendency for the SOX to find resistance at that line. That day, it snapped back immediately, something it didn't do yesterday, following more in line, so far, with the 6/02 test of that trendline. Something else was happening on 6/02 and 6/23 that was similar to what happened yesterday: the advdec line had been hitting swing highs, excessive levels, within a day or two of those SOX touches of this important for the SOX Keltner channel line. On the Nasdaq: when you study the Nasdaq's weekly chart, that inverse H&S comes not at the bottom of a steep decline, but rather in the midst of a consolidation zone on the weekly chart. Jonathan discussed, more ably than I have here, the reasons why such a formation is not to be trusted when it occurs in the midst of a consolidation zone, in his Market Wrap last night. While I don't trust such formations, I do not discount them, either, but instead watch for what they can tell about bullish or bearish strength. I don't count on upside targets being met, although, surprisingly, they sometimes are. So, this is not to be trusted, but can be one tool to show us how strong bulls are versus bears. In addition, adding to some concerns, the TRAN and Dow underperform by some measures, neither of them yet topping previous June highs, for example.

Those who want to attempt a breakout play on the OEX at least have that benchmark 570 level to watch, but I'd rather see a pullback and see how the pullback behaves. I consider breakout plays risky, risky, with the known behavior of the OEX near 570 for more than a month. If there's still leftover exuberance, the pullback just may not happen and that exuberance might just carry the OEX higher, toward new Keltner targets. If so, watch the 572-ish zone and then 574-576. Those who want such a play might keep a close eye on the markets that have been breaking out: the RUT 2000 and Wilshire 5000, specifically. Watch the RLX. As of yesterday's close, it appeared to be testing/slightly above a neckline for an inverse H&S on its daily chart, with an ascending neckline, at about 457. OEX bulls don't want to see quick reversal below that today. Keep a watch on the SOX, as it rarely stays above daily Keltner resistance that it breached yesterday for a more than a day or two, and you want to know if there's going to be a reversal or if the SOX is going to create a new breakout and set a new upside target.

Keltner-wise, the OEX was retesting its breakout level again at the close yesterday. It's not preserving as steep an incline as it has been, but instead has been finding support on a lower Keltner line, with that line now at 568.95. This 15-minute chart suggests that bulls should have profit-protecting plans in place, while the 30-minute chart suggests that an upside target of 571.59 is still possible. The 60-minute chart suggests that 575.59 might be possible. So, watch for a potential double-top at yesterday's high, with bulls not wanting to see that double-top confirmed at a drop below 567.49, or watch for a pullback if that does happen. Those considering a breakout play should keep a tight stop in case of a quick reversal. Unfortunately, I cannot yet recommend a bearish play, either, until we see a steep and impulsive type of pullback and then a bounce-and-rollover entry.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 8:28:54 AM

Ten year notes are in light positive territory, with TNX down .5 bps at 4.097%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 8:13:38 AM

Session high for August crude oil here, +.55 at 59.475.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/12/2005 7:40:28 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1223.25, NQ 1557, YM 10535 and QQQQ +.02 to 38.14. Gold is up 1.3 to 427.60, silver +.018 to 7.120, ten year notes -3/64 112 5/64 and crude oil is up .425 to 59.35.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

Linda Piazza : 7/12/2005 7:24:45 AM

Good morning. Despite some disappointing economic data, the Nikkei managed another positive close, although other Asian bourses were mixed. European markets trade tepidly this morning, although some individual companies' stocks zoom one direction or another as they update or present earnings. Our futures are near the flat-line, also. As of 7:09 EST, gold was up $1.4, and crude, up $0.37 to $59.29. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Last night, Japan's June Corporate Goods Price Index was released, showing a 1.4% year-over-year gain. That was lower than the consensus figure of 1.6%. Although crude costs rose in June, oil products fell as those higher crude costs weren't yet factored into the production costs. Weakened demand from China and the rest of Asian countries for chemicals sent chemical products lower, too. Of the components, resources rose, but by less than in May; half-finished goods rose, but also less than in May; and prices of final goods fell more than they had in May. The conclusion by some market watchers was that producer prices were squeezing profits. The Bank of Japan also released the May Manufacturers' Input/Output Price Index, with input prices rising 0.1% month over month or 6.2% year over year. Output prices were flat month over month and rose 3.0% year over year. The Trade Condition Index rose 0.1 point month over month and fell 2.9 points year over year. The year-over-year drop was less than April's 3.2-point drop, however.

The Nikkei opened higher by just over 60 points, but then began dropping. By mid-afternoon, it had dropped to the flat-line level, but it bounced off that level, managing a positive close. Later, the Japanese government announced that it maintained its outlook for the economy in July after June's first upgrade in outlook in almost a year. Business sentiment improved, but there was a build in high-tech industries' inventories. Threats included high oil prices, but the economy was still seen as recovering at a moderate rate. The Nikkei closed higher by 17.35 points or 0.15%, at 11,692.14.

Gainers included technology stocks, benefiting from the gain in techs in the U.S. and from LG. Philips LCD Co.'s report that flat-panel prices and shipments would increase in the ongoing quarter. The company's quarterly profit did not drop as much as had been expected. Steelmaker JFE Holdings announced that the company expects a slowdown in demand and that export sales would be reduced for this quarter. The company's stock led steelmakers lower in early trading.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.95%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.33%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.25%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.07%. China's Shanghai Composite rose 3.43%.

European markets are mixed, too, with the major bourses trading tentatively although some individual stocks were moving big in either direction. In the U.K., June's Consumer Prices was unchanged month over month, as expected, contributing now to a 2.0% higher yearly rate, up from May's 1.9%. Some feel that the benign contribution of fuels and lubricants might be more troublesome next month, but the general interpretation is that this number may keep pressure on the Bank of England to reduce rates. In Italy, the Italian Employers' Group revised downward its GDP outlook for Italy, now expecting that country's economy to contract in 2005. The deficit was projected to widen. The EU financial ministers have extended until 2007 the deadline for Italy to move its deficit back below the 3% limit. In Germany, the discussion of the impact of a value-added tax increase by the Federal Statistical Office has dampened enthusiasm for stocks, with the office saying it would increase consumer prices by almost 0.9 percentage points. The move comes after the opposition Christian Democrats said they would raise the sales tax 2 percentage points if they win the September election.

Metal stocks fell in Europe after ABN Amro downgraded several to sell ratings and perhaps also in response to JFE Holdings announcement last night. Telecoms did better. As of a few moments ago, Alcatel was up almost 10 points, one of the stocks to be moving big this morning despite tepid trading in the major bourses. Alcatel was surging after its earnings report. Many other European telecommunications companies saw their stocks gaining, too, although Ericsson gained more modestly than some peers. Cosmetics company L'Oreal also gained strongly after giving an upbeat report on expected 2005 results. As Marc reported last night on the Futures side of the Monitor, BP announced last night that the hurricane had damaged one of its Gulf of Mexico deepwater oil rigs, and BP dropped this morning in response. In the U.K., interdealer-broker Man Group PLC dropped after releasing earnings. U.K. credit provider Provident Financial PLC and retirement home builder McCarthy & Stone dropped after warning that profits won't be as high as hoped.

As of 7:07 EST, the FTSE 100 was down 3.70 points or 0.07%, at 5,238.70. The CAC 40 was higher by 0.28 points or 0.01%, at 4,321.84. The DAX was down 4.89 points or 0.10%, at 4,658.49. This hesitation comes as many European bourses had hit three-year highs yesterday.

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