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Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 1:53:53 AM

General Motors Deb C (NYSE:GPM) $21.70 -0.32% Link ... not exactly sure what type of security this is. Bugger blocked out 1.4 million at $21.52 after the close. According to Yahoo! Finance Link it pays a $1.56 dividend, for an SEC Yield of 7.188%. Looks like a "preferred stock" to me.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 1:41:25 AM

July 8th ... just looking at August Crude Oil Futures (cl05q) bar chart that we've been following with various retracement at this Link ... Again... a commodity futures trader doesn't put a lot of weight into MACD, but if this were a stock, a "perma-bear" would be pointing out the bearish divergence.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 1:24:42 AM

Weekly EIA table updated for week-to-week changes and 1-month, 2-month, 3-month and Year-ago at this Link ... I think you'll agree that refiners are focusing on distillates (heating oil, diesel, etc.). Now, I'm not overly certain that "trader talk" that refiners are delaying purchase of crude oil is in play. I posted July (blue) and August (pink) settlement prices for the May 27 to July 8 dates. I believe that EVERY Market is "all knowing" so I wanted to use the July Crude Oil futures 05/27/05 settlement, to match the end of week EIA statistics.

Now... IF some "trader talk" is true, and the recent declines in crude oil inventories is partially due to refiners delaying purchase of oil due to its rise, then PRICE should fall. Shouldn't it? (less demand = lower price) Yes... you're right though. There has been some supply disruptions due to hurricane activity. I'm not sure how much though, and that would be helpful to know when looking at the raw data.

What do you think gasoline futures are going to do? I think the week-to-week change in distillate inventories (+3.19 million vs. +4.06 million) might hint that refiners are going to shift some focus back to gasoline.

Remember the 06/08/05 "widget" discussion? Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:37:18 AM

e-mini NASDAQ up 3.0 at 1,570.00

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:35:03 AM

e-mini S&P (es05u) up a bone at 1,229.00.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:34:34 AM

August Crude Oil (cl05q) down $0.35 at $59.66.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:22:49 AM

Pivot Matrix for Thursday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:00:03 AM

Emily upgraded to a hurricane ... Tropical Storm Emily upgraded to hurricane by National Hurricane Center in Miami. Eye of hurricane about 45 miles southeast of Grenada with sustained winds of 92 mph. Heading west at 18 mph.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 10:50:24 PM

Merck (MRK) $31.62 +0.06% ... DJ - Jury of 7 men and 5 women (two doctors with some Vioxx experience) seated to decide the outcome of the nation's first Vioxx-related lawsuit to go to trial. Opening statements begin tomorrow in Angleton, TX.

Of the two doctors in the jury pool, Juror No. 7 said some of her patients had good experiences taking Vioxx and some wished they still had access to it. The other doctor, Juror No. 5, told plaintiffs' attorney Mark Lanier he had "steered off prescribing Vioxx a long time ago" because he saw blood pressure rise in patients who took it.

The Texas case is the first of more than 3,800 state and federal lawsuits pending against New Jersey-based Merck & Co. (MRK) over the popular painkiller the company withdrew in September after research showed it could double risk of heart attack or stroke.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 10:39:08 PM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $38.04 -1.09% ... DJ - Jakarta pollution trial of the local unit of U.S-based Newmont Mining and its top American executive Richard Ness, will begin August 5. The trial will likely be held in Manado, Indonesia. The charges in the closely watched case stem from pollution allegations at the company's Sulawesi gold mine. The site, which is 2,000 kilometers northeast of Jakarta, opened in 1996 and was shut last year. The crimes carry a maximum penalty of 15 years in prison and a fine of up to IDR750,000,000.

At current currency exchange rate ($1=IDR9,817)

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 10:25:31 PM

August Nat. Gas (ng05q) up $0.11 at $8.01.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 10:22:22 PM

August Crude Oil futures (cl05q) down $0.30 at $59.71.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 10:21:24 PM

Mexican Pipeline Explosion ... Update ... DJ - Explosion at the Gulf coast port of Coatzacoalcos killed two researchers who were carrying out environmental studies for the state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex. The company said the blast occured at a 36-inch oil pipeline, 320 miles southeast of Mexico City.

In April, a private repair company contracted by Pemex caused a release of gas that killed six workers and forced the evacuation of thousands of residents of Nanchital.

Nanchital was also the site of a December oil spill that released 5,000 barrels of crude into the Coatzacoalcos River feeding the southern Gulf of Mexico.

OI Technical Staff : 7/13/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 9:52:03 PM

China's Main Financial Institutions DJ - non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for China's main financial institutions fell to 10.15% by the end of June. The NPL rato has fallen 3.95 percentage points from the start of the year, putting the amount of NPLs at CNY1.593 trillion.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 9:48:42 PM

Pipeline Explosion ... DJ - Pipeline explosion at Mexican port kills 2 Oil Workers. (More to follow) ...... news just hitting the wire.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 9:45:00 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) (update) stock went out at $38.35 +0.28% ... last tick in extended session is $39.71. (traded $37.81-$39.75) in extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 4:59:20 PM

Gonzo for Bonso (BNSO)? $5.95 +0.84% ... if bulls come back for 2nds and 3rds, keep this one (very thinly traded) on the bull list.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 4:54:02 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 4:48:02 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 4:32:33 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $38.35 +0.28% ... trading $38.50 on earnings. $0.37 per share vs. consensus of $0.31.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 9:38:48 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Swing traded long 1/4 position in the Host America -Warrants- (CAFEW) at 2.98.

Sold 1/2 of the CAFEW position at $3.50 ($+0.52, or +17.45%)

Sold the remaining 1/2 of CAFEW position at $3.63 ($+0.65, or +21.81%) after it had traded just above initial target of $4.50 (tried to let it run, but when a security trades so close to your target and begins to pull back, it eats at you).

Sold NAKED three (3) IBM Aug $75 Puts (IBM-TO) at the bid of $0.60. With the stock at $81.64 are/were you willing/able to buy 300 shares of IBM at $75.00 - $0.60 = $74.10?

Sold NAKED two (2) YHOO Aug $35 Puts (YHQ-TG) at the bid of $0.85. With the stock at $36.97 are/were you willing/able to buy 200 shares of YHOO at $35.00 - $0.85 = $34.15?

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 4:01:50 PM

The OEX ended the day inside that neutral triangle, above 570, but below the 30-minute upside target that it could never reach today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 3:58:33 PM

QQQQ $38.36 +0.14% ... "bad tick" to $38.90 about 20-minutes ago.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 3:57:54 PM

QQQQ is now 19M shares away from yesterday's volume, the short cycle upphase stalled 70% through its range below overbought. There hasn't been a single intraday cycle that has followed through uniterrupted today. Still no resolution in any of the intraday timeframes.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 3:57:05 PM

BIX moving again toward a test of the day's low. No new LOD yet. This is just part of the sideways churning at the top of the range.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 3:56:18 PM

The OEX is turning down through the neutral triangle again.

Do you feel confident holding bullish positions overnight with the SOX having propped up enthusiasm, with it not yet having paused even for a breather, and with earnings beginning tonight? Decide now and act accordingly. No right or wrong answer here, but I'd be inclined to take at least partial profits.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 3:55:29 PM

Risk arbitragers will be shorting CAFE, but net long the CAFEW from the looks of things. Not unusual when a stock moves aggressively higher.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 3:53:11 PM

RUT still near the right-shoulder level for its potential H&S on the 15-minute chart. Without some fast action in the last few minutes of trading, this formation is not going to be resolved either direction by the end of the day. The RUT hasn't currently dropped quite low enough for me to feel confident in the completion of the evening-star formation. It would have to close below 667.12--and the deeper below it, the better--for me to feel confident of that formation's completion. The RUT is at 667.52 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 3:48:46 PM

The RLX is still being pressured lower by a Keltner line on the 30-minute chart, with that line currently at 461.39, and with this important on 30-minute closes. The RLX is testing that line as I type, but with the end-of-day action, I wouldn't draw too big a conclusion from a slight close above that line.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 3:47:17 PM

Host America -Warrants- (CAFEW) $3.78 +119.76% ... while never traded stop of $3.50, closing this position out from MM Profiles at $3.63.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 3:45:59 PM

The BIX has settled into a flat range at the top of its climb, roughly between 368.70 and 369.50, although both the top and the bottom of that range are a little ragged. The actual day's high was 369.67.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 3:44:53 PM

Symantec (SYMC) $24.12 +2.85% ... bold move to the close.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 3:44:42 PM

Crude oil is printing a low for the evening session here at 59.825, -.175. QQQQ's upside break has turned the 30 min cycle slightly higher, but it will take more than the bulls have shown us to resolve the ambiguity to the upside. So far, the upper channels continue to hold at 38.50.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 3:44:09 PM

After price climbed above the top of the neutral triangle on the OEX, the five-minute candles have been strange, chopping around a bit and looking as if investors are undecided about whether to continue the breakout or not.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 3:42:43 PM

The RUT is testing the right-shoulder level for its H&S. It hasn't invalidated, or even climbed above the last five-minute swing high of 669.40, but I keep expecting that to happen after what we've seen going on lately.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 3:42:17 PM

CAFE $9.00 ... CAFEW $3.78 (traded low of $3.63 as CAFE hit $8.85)

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 3:40:27 PM

Bullish swing trade stop alert .... for Host America -Warrants- (CAFEW) $3.50

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 3:34:08 PM

Google Gravy! ... July $300 Calls have turned 24,088 (OI 29,375), July $290 puts 23,431 (OI 25,696), July $290 Calls 15,196 (16,403).

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 3:31:53 PM

Session high for QQQQ at 38.43, 7 cents below the upper 30 and 60 min channel tops. But the short cycle has turned up and has room to run potentially further if the price holds above the 72 SMA at 38.34.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 3:31:14 PM

Google (GOOG) $298.76 +2.45% ... sniffing $300.00. After recent double bottom sell signal at $276 and reversing double top at $300.00, now have a new bullish vertical count ($392).

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 3:26:46 PM

October Fed Fund Futures (ff05v) 96.27 -0.01% ... lowest reading since early April. Predicting greather than 90% chance of 3.75% Fed Funds.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 3:23:57 PM

After a brief downside break of the neutral triangle on the top of the OEX's climb, but without any confirmation on a 30-minute close below the necessary Keltner area, the OEX zoomed up to retest the upper boundary. Trouble is, the OEX is currently pulling back after breaking through the top of the triangle. Triangle takes all day to build and we can't be sure of a break of that, either, but fortunately, I'd warned to be leery of a break either direction. On the 30-minute chart, next resistance at 572.70 and 573.82, but I'm not at all sure we've actually had an upside break.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 3:20:43 PM

New HOD for the SOX, of course, and the RUT has moved back up to test the right-shoulder area for its H&S on its 15-minute chart. Hasn't invalidated it yet, but this has been typical behavior lately--on the verge of a confirmation, prices shoot up again in a rejection of the formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 3:19:09 PM

Upside pennant break here for QQQQ, but the volume's not there to confirm it. The session high is 2 cents away, followed by 30 and 60 min resistance lined up at 38.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 3:16:54 PM

QQQQ pennant update, with volume up to 60M shares for the day, 26M shares less than yesterday's closing value: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 3:13:41 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link ... NYSE 5-day NH/NL ... missing some healthcare is my best guess.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 3:07:30 PM

The OEX has now broken the neutral triangle to the downside. Hasn't yet been a 30-minute close beneath the Keltner lines currently at 571.36-571.88, but it's beginning to look vulnerable to 568.86-570.32 as long as it can hold beneath those Keltner lines.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 3:05:24 PM

RUT turning down. Hasn't confirmed the H&S, yet, but still fits the parameters for one. I think it would now require a drop to about 664.90 to confirm it. The RUT is at 666.81 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 3:03:51 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 3:03:18 PM

QQQQ now tests lower pennant support, doji-ing back up as I type: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 2:58:22 PM

OEX headed down to test the lower boundary of its neutral triangle after repeated tests of the upside boundary weren't successful in a breakout. The lower boundary is a about 571.30. There's 30-minute support at 571.39 on closes, so I wouldn't even begin to think there's been a real and trusted downside break of that triangle until there's a 30-minute close beneath that line.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2005 2:57:01 PM

Dateline CNN Chief Justice William Rehnquist taken to hospital for observation after complaining of high fever, a spokeswoman says.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 2:55:07 PM

Almost nothing has changed since this morning for QQQQ's intraday cycle setup, except that the drifting 30 min indicators have turned up slightly, still within their downtrend off Monday's oscillator high. It remains either a massive bearish divergence forming, or a massively weak downphase- and in either case, it's grown very extended, into its 3rd day. 38.15-38.50 is the 60 min cycle range, with the 30 min bands a nickel within it, 38.20-38.46.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 2:50:00 PM

The SOX wasn't successful at breaking out of that cup-and-handle formation to the upside, but it's trying it again as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 2:48:58 PM

With the possible exception of the RUT, I really haven't seen anything to trade today. No real setups for the OEX, for sure. While I might have my doubts about whether we're really proven that the OEX is just going to keep rising, lots of doubts, I haven't seen a bearish setup yet, either. Still watching for a break out of the neutral triangle, but there's potential strong resistance just overhead if it breaks to the upside, and we haven't seen anything impulsive yet to the downside, so a downside break would be difficult to trust until we've seen a strong break, then a retest that fails.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 2:43:59 PM

RUT has still not invalidated or confirmed its H&S, visible on its 15-minute chart. I said earlier that symmetry with the left shoulder might mean that it would chop around for a while before RUT investors decided whether to invalidate the formation or confirm it.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 2:43:57 PM

QQQQ tests upper pennant resistance: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 2:42:25 PM

The OEX is again testing the top of that neutral triangle on the top of its climb.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 2:41:26 PM

SOX trying for a new HOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 2:40:07 PM

QQQQ volume is on track to miss yesterday's light volume, currently 55.6M shares traded so far, 31M shares away from yesterday's light volume.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 2:36:33 PM

August crude oil finished -.60 at 60.025. 50 tick chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 2:35:39 PM

Headline:

GULF OIL OUTPUT CONTINUES RECOVERY FR DENNIS: MMS

ABOUT 16% OF DAILY GULF OIL OUTPUT REMAINS SHUT IN: MMS

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 2:35:59 PM

VIX.X 10.97 +0.18% ... darts to session low. DAILY Pivot serving resistance last 40 minutes.

SPX 1,222.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 2:30:03 PM

Volume breadth remains mixed, with declining volume leading 1.15:1 on the NYSE while advancing volume leads 1.33:1 on the Nasdaq. The TRIN and TRINQ are neutral at .87 and .7 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 2:28:45 PM

For the last 30-minutes, the OEX has continued testing the top of that neutral triangle that I mentioned on its five-minute and fifteen-minute charts. Hasn't broken out in either direction.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 2:28:05 PM

Stock/warrant .... DSTI/DSTIW/DSTIZ

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 2:27:07 PM

If the RLX were to end the day anywhere near its current level, it will have done a convincing job of creating a tweezers-top reversal signal.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 2:24:44 PM

There's a cup-and-handle formation on the SOX's five-minute chart at the top of the climb. Cup and handle formations can be continuation formations, so I'm certainly going to watch to see if it confirms or if the formation is invalidated by a drop through the handle level, at about 455.60.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 2:22:08 PM

The RLX is still being pressured lower by a Keltner line currently at 461.39 on the 15-minute chart, but it's avoiding dipping below the day's low, and so there's still a chance that it will push up through that resistance, finding support at the day's low. That LOD is being tested as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 2:25:45 PM

If day trading the CAFEW (session h/l $4.58/$2.70), I'd suggest using your "dynamic" retracement technique against the underlying CAFE (session h/l $9.98/$8.00).

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 2:20:42 PM

QQQQ tests upper pennant resistance again, back above 72 SMA support: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 2:18:08 PM

The RUT has neither confirmed nor invalidated the H&S on its 15-minute chart. It's risen to retest the neckline of the H&S on the five-minute chart, the one that's the top of the right shoulder for the 15-minute one.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 2:15:40 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 2:11:00 PM

Ten year notes are holding below the highs in the upper end of their day range, but TNX still holds +2.5 bps at 4.166%.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 2:10:04 PM

I mentioned earlier today that I wondered if we'd see a doji day today. That's what we've got so far, and, without a strong move the next couple of hours, that's what we'll see, with the doji visually representing the indecision everyone feels.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 2:08:21 PM

The OEX has formed a neutral triangle at the top of its climb, although you may have to dial down to a five-minute chart to see it clearly. The boundaries are currently at about 571.13 on the bottom and 572.13 on the top.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 2:08:07 PM

Headlines:

SNOW: SOME COVERAGE MUST BE CUT FROM TERROR INSURANCE

SNOW: TERROR INSURANCE MUST MINIMIZE TAXPAYER EXPOSURE

SNOW: ANY INSURANCE EXTENSION SHOULD BE TEMPORARY

SNOW REPEATS OPPOSITION TO EXTENDING TERROR INSURANCE

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 2:07:51 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 2:04:47 PM

The RLX is now being pressured lower by a Keltner line currently at 461.72, a Keltner line on the 30-minute chart that had supported it since last Thursday. More resistance firms up through 463.03, looking firm enough to send the RLX down to test 459.15-460.41, at least, although it doesn't rule out continued tests of the overhead resistance first. That's how it looks. Let's see if that's what it does.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 2:05:26 PM

Buffalo Wild (BWLD) $33.45 +11.24% Link ... (see last night's MM) ... earlier this week I challenged a bearish resistance trend with BNSO (as young as it is) Link and lost.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 2:02:17 PM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 2:01:59 PM

Treasury budget 22.4B vs. 28B exp, 19.1B prior.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 2:01:40 PM

The BIX is just above the 30-minute Keltner support at 367.93-368.63, still testing the resistance just above, at 369.34-369.62. It's between support that has held it since Thursday and resistance that often stops it. No conclusion yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 1:54:07 PM

TRAN just chopping around inside a range it began forming yesterday morning. Not even any short-term direction.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 1:52:35 PM

RLX still testing its LOD.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 1:52:15 PM

Just noticed that the advdec line did confirm its H&S on its five-minute chart at the same time that the RUT confirmed its H&S.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 1:50:47 PM

SOX isn't really following the RUT lower. The SOX is near the HOD, still.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 1:49:47 PM

QQQQ continues to hug the 72 SMA within a neutral pennant. These are continuation patterns, and in this case would suggest an upside break, but at this point, with all the intraday indicators sliding sideways, a break of either trendline on a burst of volume could be significant for direction: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 1:49:31 PM

Remember that it's a prime stop-running time of day.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 1:49:14 PM

The RUT has just confirmed a small, roughly formed H&S on its five-minute chart, with this H&S the top of the right shoulder for the larger H&S visible on its 15-minute chart. The neckline for that larger one is at about 665-665.30, depending on how the neckline is drawn.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 1:43:53 PM

SOX isn't giving up on testing its day's high, with the SOX just under 457 as I type.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2005 1:40:18 PM

Jonathan - there we go again thinking at the same time.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 1:38:37 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 1:37:18 PM

Lettuce not forget the Treasury Budget for June, prior 19.1B, est. 28B, scheduled for release at 2 PM.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 1:33:52 PM

RLX still testing the LOD.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 1:32:55 PM

Kind of remarkable that the indices are holding up as well as they are with the advdec line so negative. Is that a potential H&S on the advdec line? Sometimes those prove useful to watch.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 1:29:05 PM

Host America -Warrant- (CAFEW) alert $4.50 +167% ... would want traders to have taken some type of profit.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 1:27:14 PM

Bullish swing trade target adjustment alert ... cancel order to sell CAFEW $4.25 +147.09% for $4.50, but raise stop to $3.50.

5-MRT BLUE #2 $3.68, #3 $3.98, #4 $4.28, #5 $4.77, #6 $5.26.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 1:22:05 PM

RLX retesting the day's low again, with that low at 460.73 and with the RLX at 461.17. The OEX probably isn't going much of anywhere, though, until the RLX and BIX hitch their performances. The BIX currently turns lower, but it's nothing significant as yet. The BIX would need to produce a 30-minute close below support currently at 366.77-368.40 before I would start believing in any kind of decline. The BIX is at 368.74 as I type.

With that said, the BIX just got through retesting upper Keltner resistance on the 30-minute chart, with bearish price/RSI divergence as it did so, so we should at least watch.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 1:22:01 PM

August crude oil is +.30 at 60.925 here, 30 cents below the session high.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 1:18:56 PM

RUT rolling down, but hasn't confirmed its H&S yet. It's just fitting with a possible H&S scenario. The potential neckline is at about 665, but still descending. The left shoulder was elongated, so if there was going to be symmetry, we might see some tests of that neckline and small bounces, even if it's going to confirm. Watching, though.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 1:12:53 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 1:09:25 PM

QQQQ is glued to the 72 SMA at 38.32, the short cycle indicators drifting lower from below overbought territory, with price doing its best to appear trendless in all intraday timeframes. But the price is still holding above unchanged for the day, Nasdaq advancing volume leading 1.29:1.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 1:07:59 PM

The 5 year note auction generated a bid to cover ratio of 2.37, high-rate of 3.97%, with foreign central banks taking 3.8B of the 13B total auctioned. The bid to cover was the weakest since the April auction but well within this year's average range, and the high rate the highest since the April auction.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 1:06:16 PM

SOX bulls do not want to see the SOX fall below 452.41, the trough between the two equal highs, as that would confirm a double-top formation on the intraday charts. However, daily Keltner support is at 449.51 and 451.03, so it's possible that the decline wouldn't take it far. Bulls do not want a daily close below 449.51. I'm kind of wondering if we won't see a doji day, though, a possibility after a strong climb.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 1:04:01 PM

The RUT's action is still fitting a possible H&S scenario, but we've seen so many of these on the verge of confirmation just shoot higher. Not until a lot of these bearish formations start confirming and then meeting their downside targets will we have a signal that short-term sentiment has changed. The TRAN's H&S that was confirmed yesterday was one of the few formations to meet a downside target, also for a H&S, but it's just traded sideways since doing so.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 1:02:48 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 12:59:03 PM

SOX not yet able to break out above yesterday's and today's highs, but still not far below them. Watch for the possibility of a double-top formation, but sure don't absolutely count on it happening.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 12:58:35 PM

Bullish swing trade sell 1/2 alert ... let's sell 1/2 of the previously purchased Host America -Warrants- (CAFEW) here at $3.50.

Long 838 @ $2.98 based on $10,000.00 being full.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 12:54:33 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) price weighted components at this Link with weightings from 06/13/05. IBM now #2 most heavily weighted.

DIA Components from 06/13/05 screen capture. Link ... Note: DIA was trading $104.76.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 12:51:14 PM

The RUT's action so far still fits with a possible H&S scenario. The RUT doesn't impact the OEX, of course, other than in its capacity as a market leader.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 12:50:03 PM

Host America -Warrants- (CAFEW)

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 12:46:38 PM

The move higher in the Dow futures (YM) never registered with QQQQQ, which failed to even touch the prior high, and yet volume breadth is still negative on the NYSE and positive on the Nasdaq. I can't make sense of the divergence within the divergence. Both are declining here, and I'm guessing that the YM bounce was just a stop runner. QQQQ is still holding above 72 SMA support however, with 30 min channel support back up to 38.20. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 12:43:13 PM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,553.48 +0.37% ... gets the trade at WEEKLY R1.

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.55 +0.42% ... right at it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 12:39:51 PM

Pier One (PIR) $14.25 -1.99% Link ...

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 12:37:13 PM

The BIX rises still, almost straight up in what looks like a bearish rising wedge on the 15-minute chart. We've seen so many of these supposedly bearish formations break to the upside rather than downside, so I wouldn't rule out a straight-up climb on the BIX, although it supposedly should break to the downside. We sure can't count on strong declines on the OEX as long as the BIX is climbing like that, but the RLX needs to get on board to believe in strong continued climbs, either. The OEX's 30-minute upside target remains 573.50, but there's further resistance now at 572.55.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 12:38:54 PM

Kirkland's (KIRK) $8.01 -11.78% Link ... Late yesterday the specialty home furnishings retailer warned that second-quarter sales will fall below previous estimates because of weak traffic in its home furnishings stores. Sales for the quarter are now expected to come in between $83-$85 million, compared to an earlier forecast for sales between $85-$88 million. The company expects to report losses of $0.29-$0.33 a share compared to a previous loss forecast of $0.12-$0.16 a share. Comparable store sales are expected to decline between 11% and 13% for the period, compared to an earlier forecast of a 7%-10% decline.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 12:31:12 PM

The Dow is leading its peers for a change, with the intraday indicators turning tentatively higher from their downtrend while the 30 and 60 min indicators for QQQQ remain stalled in their weak downphases. However, volume breadth is weaker on the NYSE than on the Nasdaq, just to add to the already considerable confusion. I'm trying to get my bearings, so far without success, and attribute this mess to op-ex antics. Pricewise, however, there remains no bias in the 30 and 60 min channels, all of which remain flat/sideways.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 12:29:28 PM

The RUT is still testing a right-shoulder level, but if gets much over 672 and didn't immediately reverse, we'd have to throw that H&S scenario out on its ear. It faces Keltner and 670 resistance, at 669.25 as I type. No confirmation nor invalidation of the formation yet.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 12:25:25 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 369.21 +0.64% Link ... move to highs of session. Setting up for test of DAILY R2. After close above 200-day SMA on Friday, its been upward and onward.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 12:22:52 PM

SOX pushing up toward today's and yesterday's high again, still testing.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 12:17:44 PM

The OEX is squeezed between 15-minute Keltner resistance from 571.81-572.33 and support to 569.99, with resistance perhaps having the slightest edge over support. There's not enough evidence to be certain of that, however. Right now, that resistance looks stronger than it has since the OEX created a breakout signal on that chart on Friday, and that's about all that can be said for certain.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 12:15:23 PM

10 Most Active ... QQQQ $38.35 +0.13%, LU $3.22 +2.22%, JDSU $1.64 +2.5%, SPY $122.25 (unch), MSFT $25.63 +0.07%, SIRI $6.93 -0.71%, INTC $27.75 (unch), CSCO $19.86 +0.44%, ORCL $13.87 +0.57%, SYMC $23.88 +1.83%

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 12:15:08 PM

Volume has slowed further still, with the short cycle indicators stalling out below overbought territory. This could break either way, with price resting atop the 72 SMA at 38.33. It could be a bull flag to form a rough bullish cup and handle, but below the daily pivot at 38.27, that pattern should fail. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 12:12:43 PM

SOX not retreating yet.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 12:10:12 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 12:06:19 PM

A potential H&S building on the RUT's 15-minute chart with a descending neckline. It's approaching/at the right-shoulder level.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 12:02:05 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 11:59:50 AM

Pixelworks (PXLW) $10.33 +4.97% ... moves to high of session after WR Hambrecht upgraded to "buy" this morning.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 11:56:14 AM

RLX turning down toward the day's low in a retest.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 11:50:44 AM

Volume has slowed to a crawl here with QQQQ just below the session high. This could go either way, with the short cycle upphase midway through its range, but there's obviously been no sudden wall of supply greeting the higher price. Advancing volume has climed to a 1.63:1 lead over declining volume on the Nasdaq. Channel resistance is now 38.50 for the 30 min cycle, 38.55 for the 60. Updated 2 day chart at this Link

Tab Gilles : 7/13/2005 11:49:48 AM

Computer Software Index ($GSO) Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 11:49:10 AM

Swing trade long 1/4 bullish alert (aggressive bulls only!) ... for the Host America Warrants (CAFEW) $2.98 +73.25% here, stop $2.75, target $4.75.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 11:48:17 AM

RLX finding resistance so far at a 15-minute Keltner channel line now at 562.14, on 15-minute closes. It's testing that level again, but if it can't get over that, it looks vulnerable to drops towrd 459. Direction still up for grabs.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2005 11:47:37 AM

Dateline WSJ Bernard J. Ebbers, the former chief executive of WorldCom Inc., was sentenced to 25 years in federal prison today for spearheading the largest accounting fraud in U.S. history.

Mr. Ebbers, 63 years old, was convicted in March of nine counts of fraud, conspiracy and making false filings with regulators in connection with the $11 billion fraud that drove the telecommunications empire he founded into bankruptcy protection in 2002. The bankruptcy filing wiped out the shares of a company that was once worth more than $180 billion at its peak in 1999.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 11:46:23 AM

SOX still hovering at today's and yesterday's high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 11:42:24 AM

LSI Logic (LSI) $10.45 +2.74% ... new 52-weeker. "Shoulda, coulda" played a long from yesterday's 12:40:31.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 11:39:02 AM

OEX retesting the Keltner channel line that had previously supported it on the 30-minute chart, also the breakout zone that continues the now 573.40 upside target. It hasn't convincingly climbed above that resistance just yet, just as it didn't convincingly decline this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 11:35:47 AM

Internet Initiative (IIJI) option chain sorted by open interest at this Link ... now the Aug. $10 Calls volume up to 215.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 11:35:12 AM

Ten year notes have been pulling lower as equities rose just now, TNX now up 1.8 bps at 4.159% as ZNU5 approaches the session low. QQQQ topped at 38.42, currently pulling back to test the 72 SMA at 38.32 from above.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 11:32:46 AM

BIX retesting the HOD.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 11:31:03 AM

RUT, another recent leader to the upside, is not echoing the SOX's performance. It's not testing yesterday's high. Neither is the RLX.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 11:29:32 AM

SOX testing yesterday's high.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 11:27:11 AM

Session high for QQQQ at 38.40. 30 min channel resistance is down to 38.47.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 11:25:24 AM

Still nothing really bearish on the OEX as of yet. It's pulling back and has broken (and is retesting) Keltner support that had held since Thursday, but it's pullback looks corrective so far, and it broke that by trading sideways and not by dropping.

Tab Gilles : 7/13/2005 11:25:04 AM

Citrix Systems (CTXS) Here's tech stock you might want to keep on the radar screen. With Cramer/ Mad Money pushing tech stocks now, I've been looking at some stocks other than MSFT/INTC. CTXS is 1 of the 100, Nasdaq100 stocks.

Weekly chart... Link Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 11:22:23 AM

Nasdaq's adv:decv has flipped back to positive, now +1.4:1, while the NYSE remains -1.3:1. The TRIN is at .99, TRINQ .7, both in neutral territory. Overall QQQQ volume is light at 35.4M shares so far.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 11:23:04 AM

Internet Initiative (IIJI) $9.43 +6.55% Link ... I still hold this stock long with July $10 covered calls. Would like to see the stock close $9.99 on Friday, then get some further upside action to bullish vertical count.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 11:17:33 AM

August crude oil +.175 at 60.80 here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 11:16:36 AM

Swing trade sell naked put alert ... selling two (2) of the Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO Aug. $35 Puts (YHQ-TG) at the bid of $0.85.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 11:15:42 AM

OEX testing 15-minute Keltner resistance at 570.79.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 11:13:59 AM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $36.93 +1.93% Link ... continues to build gains.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 11:13:32 AM

Google Inc. (GOOG) $297.10 +1.82% Link ... breaking above yesterday's high on good volume. All-time high in play with Monday's "doji day" (open/close = $297) challenged.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 11:09:26 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 11:08:43 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 11:06:46 AM

The OEX is now being pressured lower by a 15-minute Keltner line currently at 570.76, and sees next 15-minute support near 569.65, and then again at 566.72-567.40. Remember that the 567-567.30 zone is historical S/R, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 11:04:34 AM

QQQQ continues to hold 38.20 support, still trading both sides of the 72 SMA and keeping the 30 min channel from decisively rolling over. The action has a bearish feel to me, but that's only a gut feeling, with volume breadth too close to the line to call decisively (-1.35:1 for the Nasdaq). QQQ bears need to see a break below 38.20 that sticks, but in the meantime, the short cycle downphase is sputtering just above oversold territory. Updated chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 11:02:09 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 10:59:45 AM

OEX still pulling back, but still doing it in a formation that could be a bull flag. It's trading sideways below a still-steeply-ascending 30-minute Keltner line currently at 571.05, so it's "below" that Keltner line and looking as if it's hanging in thin air on that 30-minute chart, susceptible to a decline down to 569 or perhaps even 568. I don't know how much to trust that sideways movement below that line, particularly with the BIX still holding near its HOD. Nothing to trust here. We all know that even if the indices are going to perform strongly from here on out, they need a regular old retracement, but shorts are scared and bulls are scared they're missing the boat, and it's opex week.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 10:53:29 AM

So far, the RUT is still doing a good job of impersonating an evening-star formation on its daily chart.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 10:53:09 AM

Urologix (ULGX) $6.22 +37.3% Link ... off session high of $7.39 on heavy volume of 2.9 million shares. The medical device maker said that the FDA granted marketing approval for one of its catheters designed to treat an enlarged prostate.

Bar chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 10:48:58 AM

Symanted (SYMC) $23.71 +1.10% Link ... off session high of $24.10 after test of 200-day SMA ($24.05).

Tab Gilles : 7/13/2005 10:49:10 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 10:46:26 AM

QQQQ got rejected at the 72 SMA and sold straight back to the 38.20 support, currently bouncing as I type. The short cycle indicators are approaching oversold territory, with 30 min channel direction still up for grabs. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 10:43:58 AM

The SOX bounced from one level of Keltner support on the 30-minute chart, back up to retest the actual Keltner line that had been supporting it since Thursday, until this morning. This line is currently at 454.22, and the SOX is so far having difficulty with that resistance. Support just below, however, both on the 30-minute chart and the daily one, so the ultimate outcome may not yet be known. So far, the SOX, RUT, and RLX, three recent leaders to the upside, aren't having a particularly great day.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 10:41:50 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 10:41:40 AM

OEX bouncing again, finding tentative support on the 30-minute Keltner line currently at 571.03. That support is tentative, however, as the OEX could be described as chopping back and forth across that line rather than bouncing from it or declining from it. BIX still holding near it's day's high, but RLX is retesting the breakout level, with a steeper fall possible for the RLX if it can't maintain this level (462) and manage a bounce. The RLX and BIX components that the OEX holds are perhaps being pulled opposite directions.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 10:34:48 AM

VIX.X 11.36 +3.74% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 10.56, 10.79, Piv = 11.08, 11.31, 11.60.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 10:33:01 AM

Swing trade sell naked puts alert for IBM. Selling three (3) of the IBM Aug $75 puts (IBM-TO) at the bid of $0.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 10:32:38 AM

Headlines:

U.S. DISTILLATE STKS UP 3.2 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

U.S. GASOLINE STKS DOWN 2.7 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

U.S. CRUDE STKS DOWN 3.9 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 10:30:23 AM

Wondering what was keeping the OEX from looking as weak as some other indices, although of course it's been retreating over the last 30 minutes, I took a look at the BIX, and it showed a strong gain this morning, but a current slightly pullback from that gain. The BIX hit daily Keltner resistance at 368.90. Although that resistance often holds it, the resistance is not as strong as the resistance that some indices have successfully popped above. The BIX also hit 30-minute resistance, but mostly still holds to 30-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 367.18, although there began to be a few minor violations of that Keltner line on closes yesterday. So, we need a strong, steep decline on the BIX before we believe too strongly in a similar strong, steep decline being possible for the OEX.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 10:29:00 AM

Ten year notes have recovered off their 111 41/64 low, with TNX down to a .7 bp gain at 4.148%.

Tab Gilles : 7/13/2005 10:27:18 AM

Sepracor (SEPR) One potential takeover could be Sepracor with its new sleep aide Lunesta. The space for sleeping pills is about to become a lot more crowded, with new potential launches of a long-acting version of the popular sleep aid Ambien, and two new drugs, Takeda Pharmaceutica's Ramelteon and Indiplon by Pfizer. The new competition could actually increase the value of Lunesta to a potential acquirer. If other big drugmakers have popular sleep aids in their portfolio, any drugmaker without one may feel the need to fill that gap. Link Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 10:30:46 AM

IBM (IBM) $81.47 +1.78% Link ... upgraded at Bernstein to "outperform" from "market perform."

Follows 04/15/05 downgrade at CSFB, 04/29 upgrade at Banc of America, 06/13 upgrade at Caris & Co..

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 10:24:07 AM

August crude oil trades down .075 at 60.55 here, off a high of 61.275.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 10:22:46 AM

HCA Inc. (HCA) $50.50 -8.03% Link ... lower after the hospital manager guiding recent quarter (ended June 30) with net income expected to be between $0.88 and $0.92 per diluted share, compared with $0.72 for the prior year's Q2. The company cited a favorable tax settlement related to the company's divestiture of certain non-core business units in 1998 and 2001 of $48 million, or $0.11 per diluted share. Preliminary results indicate same-facility revenue is expected to increase 4.3% to about $6 billion. Company reaffirming its guidance for 2005 of $3.05 to $3.20 per diluted share.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 10:21:27 AM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner resistance did hold, and the OEX now tests 30-minute Keltner support at 570.80-570.84. It's slightly below that, but there hasn't been a 30-minute Keltner close beneath it, and really nothing yet upon which to peg a bearish play, which will be unfortunately if there's just a straight-down drop from here.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 10:19:08 AM

Volume breadth has gone negative 1.22:1 on the NYSE and 1.61:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 10:19:02 AM

So far, the RUT fulfills the requirements of an evening-star formation on its daily chart, this being produced at daily Keltner resistance. It's early in the day, of course, so no presumptions, and watch for potential support anywhere from the current 667-668-ish level to 657.50, the next daily Keltner support.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 10:17:58 AM

Session low for QQQQ at 38.21 here, testing confluence at the previous highs. 30 min channel support is down to 38.15, 60 min support at 38.10.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 10:17:22 AM

An update on the SOX's daily Keltner chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 10:16:32 AM

Wolverine Worldwide (WWW) $22.09 -8.90% Link ... darts to lows of the session after break of rising 50-day SMA. Rising 200-day SMA at $21.41.

The shoe maker said net income for the recent quarter came to $13.3 million, or $0.22 a share, up from $11 million, or $0.18, in last year's second quarter. Analyst were looking for earnings $0.21 a share.

Revenue for the period rose 8.5% to $215.7 million from $198.8 million a year ago, and ahead of analyst' view for $213 million in revenue. Gross profit margin expanded 1.2%, as foreign currency exchange helped lower costs for raw materials and the company sold more shoes with higher markups.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 10:10:54 AM

RUT back below 670 again. Knew it, but a stop is a stop. It's got support near 668, so I wouldn't be surprised to see another bounce up toward 672 or so from that level . . . or a striaght-down drop, ignoring the potential right shoulder for a possible H&S on the top of its 15-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 10:10:02 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 10:09:24 AM

The RLX has dropped this morning below one 30-minute Keltner line that had been supporting it and prompting bounces since Thursday. It's got relatively firm-looking support near 461.40-462.26, so that might support it long enough for a bounce up to retest that other broken support. The RLX this week began moving up into a strong 462-466.68 resistance zone, testing that, so the ongoing test is important, particularly as the OEX's retailers having been helping it make recent gains, too. The RLX is at 463.07 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 10:04:58 AM

RUT testing 670, at 670.21 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 10:04:32 AM

The TRAN is not dropping, and is instead rising to test the descending trendline off Monday's high, testing that trendline at about 3615, if I've drawn it correctly, with the TRAN currently at 3606.98. Still within that pattern that could be either a bull flag or a bearish right triangle, depending on your bias. I'm just going to watch which direction it breaks and try not to have a bias. The TRAN is just above its 100-sma as I type, still within testing range, with that average at 3600.82.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 10:02:35 AM

QQQQ broke below the 72 SMA for the first time since noon yesterday as the Fed was announcing its small repo drain, but there's a small wavelet bullish divergence shaping up here. Bears need to keep price below 38.31 to prevent it from confirming. 30 min channel support is down to 38.17.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 10:02:03 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 9:59:51 AM

SOX dropping heavily, but with 30-minute Keltner support at 451.78 and down to 449.56. Below that, it's approaching daily Keltner support, and SOX bulls do not want the SOX to follow its usual pattern of staying above that daily Keltner resistance for only a couple of days, on swing highs, before retreating back inside that channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 9:56:40 AM

The Fed announces a 4.25B overnight repo to replace the 5.5B expiring, for a net drain of 1.25B today.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 9:54:16 AM

The OEX pushes up into Keltner resistance that had looked strong on the 15-minute chart, but still tests that resistance. So far, there's no change in the recent pattern, with the OEX mostly preserving 30-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 570.69, and preserving its upside 30-minute target, now at 572.99. Be careful, though, as it's still really just testing that Keltner resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 9:56:57 AM

Host America -Warrant- (CAFEW) Warrant structure at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 9:50:16 AM

I can't find any info on Warrant structure for CAFE at this point.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 9:45:02 AM

SOX turning lower. I said yesterday or this morning--I'm getting older, aren't I?--that the SOX needed a strong reversal this morning to continue that pattern of staying above daily Keltner support for only a day or two. That support is now at 449.08. The SOX is currently at 455.13, and without that strong reversal, it may indeed be setting up a breakout on the daily Keltner chart. Because of its pattern of sometimes staying above that daily Keltner S/R for a day or two before reversing, I'm kind of hesitant to believe too strongly in that, though, until I see what today does.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 9:44:41 AM

Volume breadth is positive 1.38:1 on the NYSE, TRIN .79, and 1.44:1 on the Nasdaq, TRINQ .7, still oriented neutral-positive here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 9:39:45 AM

Host America -Warrants- (CAFEW) $3.00 +74% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 9:38:29 AM

Opening 3 min chart of QQQQ, bouncing from the 72 SMA and approaching yesterday's daily R2 at the short cycle channel top at 38.40: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 9:38:43 AM

Harley Davidson (HDI) $52.00 +4.62% Link ... said Q2 earnings declined 4% from last year with net income falling to $237.4 million, or $0.84 per share, which was well above consensus estimates for $0.79 per share. The company added that it bought back 17.7 million of its own shares during the quarter, up from the 2.9 million shares it bought back in Q1. Looking forward, Harley Davidson forecasted 2005 EPS growth of 10-13%, up from prior 5-8% growth.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 9:37:02 AM

SOX still above 30-minute Keltner support at 454.74.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 9:34:54 AM

TRAN still creating a possible bull flag/possible bearish right triangle on its 15-minute chart. Looks more like a bearish right triangle with support at 3589.31 to me, but there's Keltner support right where you'd expect the next bounce if it is a flag instead, below the triangle's support. It's far too wide with respect to former price movement (straight up with smaller candles) to fit all the parameters of a flag, but we'll watch.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 9:32:25 AM

RUT opens near the close.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 9:32:08 AM

OEX opens above 570 and attempts a bounce. The 15-minute Keltner chart suggests that it's going to find significant resistance from 571.04-572.02.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 9:31:46 AM

QQQQ tests 72 SMA support here at 38.28, with 30 min channel support at 38.20.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 9:31:28 AM

Datalink (DTLK) $4.10 +44.36% ... hot out of the gate.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 9:44:03 AM

Host America (CAFE) $6.35 ... second-most active and higher at $8.01. (see Tuesday's 12:17:49 MM)/premium/92/default.aspx?show=ar_mm&date=07%2f12%2f2005

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 9:29:25 AM

Majesco Entertainment (COOL) $6.89 ... atop this morning's most active list and lower at $3.08 after the digital media products maker lowered its view for 2005 citing weak sales across all of its game lines. CEO announced he was resigning from the company under mutual agreement.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 9:25:23 AM

Dollar zooming against the yen since the 8:30 numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2005 9:23:57 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.02 and set for program selling at $+2.32.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 9:23:53 AM

Here's one thing I'm watching today, on the RUT: Link Much as it hurt, I did not let such evidence prevent me from stopping myself out of a July bear call spread when my sold strike was violated, but the possibility exists that yesterday saw a short-term high on the RUT. That would have implications for the broader market, although that chart shows next support down at 654.67, so not so far of a fall for the RUT. I don't know that I'd jump on this with a bearish position, either, as we might see a decline down to 654 or so and then another bounce to test the top of the channel. In that test, bears would want to see bearish divergence. If you look to the far left of that chart, you can see that the RUT is more than capable of breaking out or traveling right up the top resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 9:21:25 AM

Headline:

SANTOMERO: U.S. CONSUMERS ABLE TO WEATHER HIGHER RATES

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 9:15:45 AM

An added comment to my 9:04 post. I'm not suggesting that people jump in on a bearish play immediately on an open under 569.97. The climb on some indices has been unabated, as Jonathan has mentioned. I'd want to see a drop that looks bearish and then a bearish-type rise to retest resistance before I considered a bearish entry. With so much pressure against the sides of this short-term bullish balloon, the pop might mean we wouldn't get such sound signs that the rise was over for the short-term, but it's just too risky to try to catch the top without such signs.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 9:04:54 AM

The OEX broke above 570 yesterday, rose up toward its 30-minute upside target and then dropped back toward 570. It dropped heavily in the last 30 minutes of trading, but it did hold at 570. Is this time to buy the dip? A gap below 570 and particularly before a 60-minute Keltner line currently at 569.97 this morning would have me questioning that tactic since the last-minute drop was as steep as it was, and since that would possibly erase the 60-minute Keltner target at 576.13. A dip down to that level and bounce from it might offer a buy-the-bounce opportunity, but I'm worried about the extreme climb on some indices that routinely impact the OEX, such as the RLX, and about the steep drop near the close. Overnight action was mixed, with Japan and China both lower, but with Europe higher. Watch the RUT, RLX and TRAN today, particularly the TRAN ahead of and in reaction to the inventories numbers. I'm not ready ahead of the open to say outright that any dip to 570 is a buying opportunity and an open under 569.97 will instead have me watching for a possible rollover opportunity.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 9:03:29 AM

QQQQ's cycle setup remains puzzling, with something for everyone. The 30 and 60 min cycle downphases have so far been sideways/higher in price. This is either a massive bearish divergence shaping up, or the prologue to another flagpole surge higher. All depends on the direction of the next high-volume move- down below 38.20, confirmed by a high-volume break of yesterday's low, will set up the bearish scenario, while a consolidation at current levels or a break above yesterday's high will be very bullish. The daily cycle upphase continues to deliver uninterrupted strength, and until we see some solid selling with a break of the previous day's low, the benefit of the doubt will go to the bulls.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 8:56:22 AM

Ten year notes are weaker, TNX now +2.6 bps at 4.167%, while equities have pulled back within positive territory, QQQQ +.02 at 38.32. Gold is down .80 at 426.10, crude oil -.025 at 60.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 8:32:24 AM

Headlines:

U.S. MAY EXPORTS UP 0.2% TO RECORD $106.9 BLN

U.S. JUNE IMPORT PRICES RISE 1% AS EXPECTED

U.S. MAY TRADE GAP WITH CHINA $15.8 BLN VS 12.2 YR-AGO

U.S. JUNE IMPORT PRICES EX-OIL FALL 0.4%

U.S. JUNE EXPORT PRICES UNCHANGED

U.S. JUNE IMPORTED PETROLEUM PRICES UP 7.6%

U.S. IMPORT PRICE INDEX UP 7% YEAR-ON-YEAR

U.S. MAY TRADE GAP NARROWS 2.8% TO $55.3 BLN

U.S. MAY TRADE GAP BELOW CONSENSUS OF $57.0 BLN

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 8:25:24 AM

Ten year notes are down ahead of the 8:30 data, TNX currently up 2.4 bps to 4.165%, clearing confluence resistance. There's light resistance at 4.18%, followed by the stronger line at 4.2%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 8:21:57 AM

From the Mortgage Bankers' Association website:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (July 13, 2005) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 8. The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume - was 791.9, a decrease of 7.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 853.4 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 25.7 percent compared with the previous week but was up 22.0 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

"Mortgage application volume is down 7.2 percent from the previous week, with applications for adjustable rate products experiencing an even steeper decline of 15.8 percent," said Michael Cevarr, MBA's director of member surveys. "As a result, the ARM share of applications, at 27.9 percent, is at its lowest level since March of 2004."

The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 6.1 percent to 489.0 from 520.8 the previous week whereas the Refinance Index decreased by 8.4 percent to 2554.3 from 2788.2 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which decreased 6.4 percent to 1196.9 from 1278.7 the previous week, and the Government Index, which decreased 19.2 percent to 116.2 from 143.9 the previous week.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/13/2005 7:46:33 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1226.25, NQ 1564, YM 10537 and QQQQ +.01 at 38.31. Gold is down .5 to 426.40, silver -.013 at 7.07, ten year notes -9/64 at 111 47/64 and crude oil is up a nickel to 60.675.

We await the 8:30 releases of export prices ex-ag, prior -.4%, import prices ex-oil, prior -.3% and the trade balance for May, est. -57B. At 2PM, we'll get the Treasury Budget, est. 28B.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2005 7:27:36 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei declined Wednesday after digesting several important economic releases and a Bank of Japan report on the economy. Most other Asian bourses gained, as do European markets this morning. Our futures are modestly higher, but off fair values, according to CNBC this morning. As of 7:14 EST, gold was down $0.90, and crude, up $0.06 to $60.68. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Japan's May current-account surplus rose to 1.44 trillion yen against expectations for a fall to 1.3 trillion yen. Looking beneath the headline number, exports fell 0.2% from April's level, but imports fell faster than exports, resulting in the surplus. Oil prices hurt demand for Japanese goods in the U.S. and Europe. If oil prices continue to pressure global economies, the surplus may widen again as exports fall further.

Ahead of a Bank of Japan decision and the central bank's July report, the Nikkei dropped in early trading Wednesday. It labored all the way up to the flat-line level again late in the day, but then dropped heavily into the close. It closed down 32.30 points or 0.28%, at 11,659.84. I'm not certain of the timing of the release and whether it was before or after the Nikkei's close, but the government's July economic report kept the outlook the same, as had been anticipated. The report did note the recent volatility in monthly core machinery orders, according to one source, and said that number will be closely followed in future releases to see if recent weakness continues. The government did leave economic policy unchanged, with the central bank noting a recovering economy, with domestic demand, business sentiment, capital spending and incomes all rising. Although exports were weaker than expected, the central bank still characterized them as recovering, although the earlier current-account surplus seemed to have argued against that conclusion. Also apparently late in the day or after the close, May's Industrial Production was revised lower to a 2.8% decrease against the previous 2.3% decrease, this being a month over month number. Capacity utilization dropped 2.3% month over month.

In company-specific news, Mitsubishi Motors announced that it will trim by almost 20% the number of workers at Netherlands Car BV, a wholly owned subsidiary. Because of a an unexpectedly large slowdown in Smart Forfour sales, with those cars using a Mitsubishi chassis, the company does not anticipate that sales will pick up in a major way this year or next.

Most other Asian markets rose. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.29%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 0.60%. South Korea's Posco will be the first company with a share listing in Tokyo, the company announced. The company will buy back shares and list them on the in Tokyo. They will be sold in the form of an American depositary receipt. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.15%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.13%. China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.84%.

All European markets are in the green as this report was prepared, with oil firms and car manufacturers listed as two sectors posting gains. Investors digested economic news, too. Part of that economic news related to European passenger car registrations, rising by 4.5% in June, and helping those car manufacturers to post gains. The U.K. did not participate in that rise in car registrations, however. In other news, yesterday, the OECD warned that the Eurozone needs to put reforms into place or face a halving of its economic growth over the next couple of decades. The OECD mentioned the aging population as one negative force. Today, France's June consumer prices rose 0.2% month-over-month and 1.7% year over year, an expected result. The EU-harmonized number rose 0.2% month-over-month. Manufacturing goods prices did not show a recovery. Demand-led pressure eased, also easing inflation pressures for now, although the ECB must watch whether costs from energy and other sources can be pushed through to the consumer. Italy's May Industrial Production fell 1% month over month, a greater-than-expected drop, and April's number was revised lower, too. Among sectors, only energy grew. Since April's number was so strong, some don't see this month-over-month drop as significant, but rather as a technical correction, and the central bank's governor still expects the second-quarter GDP to show a modest recovery from the first quarter's retraction. In the U.K., the Labour Market Report showed the number of claimants rising in June.

In stock-specific news, chip-equipment manufacturer ASML Holding noted that the past six months saw 42% decline in its order book, and in the second quarter, the prices of its systems in the backlog fell. Second-quarter profit rose, as did sales, both beating expectations. The company's shares were lower in early European trading. Many other European chip-related issues gained or stayed steady. Retailer Carrefour fell after missing expectations, but U.K. retailer Marks & Spencer gained after a report that noted a 5.4% decrease in sales in the just-ended quarter, but also a substantial growth in clothing volume. Goldman Sachs upgraded U.K. banks Northern Rock and HBOS, and both gained, and also upgraded Vodafone, with the British mobile phone operator also gaining.

As of 7:17 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 31.20 points or 0.60%, at 5,248.40. The CAC 40 was higher by 16.02 points or 0.37%, at 4,329.80. The DAX was higher by 10.20 points or 0.22%, at 4,663.23.

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