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OI Technical Staff : 7/14/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 6:19:54 PM

Pivot Matrix for Friday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 5:49:46 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... Note: Today's TRIN figures may not be accurate.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 5:28:33 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 5:09:40 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ...

Stopped out of the one (1) long Apple Computer AAPL Oct $40 Put (AAQ-VH) at the bid of $2.50 when the underlying stock traded $41.50 ($-2.30, or -47.92%).

Day traded long shares of SciClone Pharma (SCLN) at the offer of $5.05 and sold at target of $5.28 ($+0.23, or +4.55%).

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 4:06:26 PM

I was looking at the numbers wrong or my brain is frazzled or both, but the Wilshire 5000 missed a key reversal day by a little more than 11 points, not nine. Still not a bullish candle sitting there at the top of its climb.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 4:01:55 PM

QQQQ just printed a bad tick to 37.80ish. Quotetracker users can clean it off by clicking the chart and pressing CTRL-shift-L.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 4:01:39 PM

The Wilshire 5000 did not create a key reversal pattern today, missing that by about 9 points, it appears, but it did pierce a new high and then fall back to create a near gravestone doji. It closed more than 80 points off its day's high.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 4:02:25 PM

Here's the OEX 240-minute Keltner chart. No breakout today: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 3:58:13 PM

Countdown: Fourteen points to go on the Wilshire 5000 for a key reversal day.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 3:55:45 PM

The Wilshire 5000 still hasn't violated the right-shoulder level for a potential H&S on top of its steep, steep climb, but neither has it confirmed it or created a key reversal day. Better move fast if it's going to do so, as it needs to drop about 21 points in the last few minutes of trading. No, make that about 20 points, as it dropped a point while I typed.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 3:51:45 PM

Here's the SOX's 60-minute 10-sma. No change in trend yet for the SOX. Would take a 60-minute close below this red MA: Link Note the ongoing bearish price/MACD divergence, in place since the 7th, while prices continued higher. Can't use this alone to enter trades. Need to have price confirmation and, in a strongly trending market, that means violation of a key MA that has been supporting it, at the least.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 3:44:06 PM

So far, the OEX hasn't been able to follow through after popping above the descending trendline off the day's high. Neither has it rolled over. It's hovering just under that trendline.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 3:43:38 PM

QQQQ continues to hold within the 30 min chart's rising wedge and declining oscillator trend. If those oscillators flip back up on a break of 38.90 (30 min closing basis), then there could be huge bullish potential as the abortive downphase whips back up in an impulsive upphase. On the other hand, the high volume and lopsided breadth at the morning high had a blowoff feel to it- but it needs to be confirmed with a downside gap fill, which has yet to occur.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 3:37:54 PM

Potential H&S on the Wilshire 5000's 15-minute chart, with the Wilshire 5000 just now rising to toward the right shoulder level, at about 12,260 or so, with the Wilshire 5000 currently at 12,254.13. A rise much above 12,280 or 12,290 would probably invalidate the formation. I don't know that it has time to play out before the end of the day, so that key reversal day may not be in the works.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 3:34:42 PM

Once again, the SOX bounced from a 30-minute Keltner line currently at 460.88, bouncing from that about 30 or 40 minutes ago. The bounce at first looked corrective, but looks less so now as the SOX eases just above a 50% retracement of the drop off the day's high. The last time the SOX bounced from this Keltner line on the 30-minute chart, it didn't actually touched it, but did approach it, yesterday morning. The time before that was last Friday morning whe nthe SOX spent some time retesting this line after breaking through it.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 3:30:22 PM

The RUT currently producing a morning-star reversal signal on the 30-minute chart, just above the 38.2% retracement of the bounce off Thursday's low. It hasn't yet cleared those 15-minute 100/130-ema's again, and is now rising to retest them. The 15-minute 100-ema is at 665.24, with the RUT at 665.22.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 3:28:42 PM

The OEX has just jumped above the descending trendline off the day's high. Bulls, watch out for a quick reversal, but no such thing is happening so far, and I'm sure my warnings are falling on deaf ears by now.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 3:25:23 PM

This SOX daily Keltner chart is big and the candles small, but that's because I wanted to show as much of its as possible. You've seen it before. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 3:15:26 PM

The OEX just jumped up and tagged the top of its descending regression channel as drawn by QCharts, but didn't quite hit the actual descending trendline off the day's high, with that at about 575.85 currently. The OEX is now at 575.33, and may be giving it another try. Keltner resistance on the three-minute chart is right there at the top of the descending regression channel. We don't know anything yet except that the OEX is still within that descending regression channel.

I know we're not supposed to overuse the already overused word "interesting," and I haven't used it in this space for months, but this close today should be interesting. Potential for a key reversal day on the important Wilshire 5000? You bet, but the last 45 minutes could turn that potential into a strong white candle.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 3:13:17 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 3:11:55 PM

The most difficult thing about rising bearish patterns is being patient for them to break. QQQQ may or may not be in a rising wedge on the 30 and 60 min charts, and the bearish divergences on the oscillators just up the ante. Link It may be a bearish setup, but so long as the price continues to rise, it's bullish.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 3:08:42 PM

SOX bouncing above the mid-channel level on the three-minute chart, and resistance thins somewhat above that. About to test a 38.2% retracement of the drop off the HOD into the just-reached last three-minute low, with that at about 462.83 and the 50% retracement of the last drop is at about 463.44. Bears would rather the SOX didn't get above that.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 3:06:17 PM

The important Wilshire 5000 should certainly be watched into the close. So far today, the Wilshire 5000 opened and pushed to a new high (All time? Q-charts doesn't go far enough for me to be sure) early in the session, posting stronger gains than it usually does a whole session in those first few minutes. Then it dropped, and it's now near the open, on the verge of going red. Another potential key reversal day. Yesterday's close was 12,227.01, as was today's open, and the Wilshire 5000 is currently at 12,230.57.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 3:02:54 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 3:00:22 PM

Caterpillar (CAT) $50.87 +1.90% ... Shoot. When writing last night's Market Wrap, I wasn't aware that CAT was splitting 2:1 at this morning's open. Guess who is the "big dog" now?

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 2:58:06 PM

The OEX still trades within its descending regression channel, and it's shown a dislike of touching the bottom of that channel again, although it did twice. Bullish divergence? It's just trying to hold at the three-minute mid-channel level, though, with the outcome as yet unknown, but this should be watched. The upper level of that regression channel is now at about 575.51, with a three-minute Keltner resistance line found there, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 2:55:19 PM

Volume breadth has deteriorated to +1.03:1 on the NYSE and +1.69:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 2:55:10 PM

I have a caveat, too, to the discussion about a top being in, taking place on the Futures side, and that has to do with the SOX's behavior, something that might be partially resolved today. It did break out of a long-term consolidation zone on the weekly channel, confirmed by a breakout above the 200-week sma. It did break out above Keltner daily resistance that it rarely stays above more than a day or two, and it's been above that longer this time. Still, I think a possible key reversal day is in the works, and we should get more info if the SOX drops to those breakout levels and we see how it behaves. Fundamentally, the things I read when preparing the Asia/Europe report sure don't make me gung-ho on the SOX, but I'm just talking about chart characteristics. We know the SOX overruns targets sometimes, but this "overrun" is getting a little dangerous for bears. A key reversal day today will be dangerous for bulls. The RUT's behaved just as expected--retreating after it hit upper Keltner resistance, but it hasn't fallen out of its rising regression channel on the daily chart just yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 2:51:20 PM

Once again, the 30 min cycle indicators are in a downphase that is getting no traction whatsoever, on a bearish divergence to boot. This contrasts with the 30 min keltner channel proxy, which holds flat along with price. As earlier this week, it's either a very weak (and very bullish) downphase, or a giant bearish divergence. So far, these setups have been breaking to the upside during the past few days as the daily cycle works its way higher. A break below the current 30 min channel bottom at 38.59 should be enough to kick off the bearish scenario instead.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 2:50:39 PM

Dow Transports' Components (TRAN) at 3,650 found at this Link ... sorted by current Net%, but more interested in 5 and 20-day trends.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 2:49:51 PM

SOX still testing mid-channel support on its three-minute chart. Support that had looked relatively firm a few minutes ago now softens. Again, SOX bulls do not want to see a new LOD and definitely do not want to see a negative close, not when the SOX moved big in the first few minutes of trading on strong volume, piercing a new recent high. Bad sign, such a close would be.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 2:46:54 PM

OEX currently tests a 30-minute Keltner line at 574.71, and bulls would like to see that resistance breached, while bears would like to see it hold. The OEX is at 574.70 with about 14 minutes left until the close of the 30-minute period.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 2:44:27 PM

I'm going to get the RLX, SOX, and RUT values wrong one of these times. All are trading at x62.50-ish values: RLX at 462.51, RUT at 662.50, and SOX at 462.48.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 2:43:12 PM

SPY Option Chain sorted by heavier open interest at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 2:43:09 PM

Headlines:

GREENSPAN TO TESTIFY TO SENATE FINANCE COMMITEE JULY 21

GREENSPAN TO TESTIFY TWICE ON SEMIANNUAL REPORT

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 2:45:12 PM

The SOX is also at the mid-channel level on its three-minute chart, with support looking relatively firm there. SOX bulls do not want to see the SOX continue to fall and reach a new LOD.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 2:39:39 PM

The OEX has a fairly well-formed descending regression channel off the day's high. Is this a bull flag? It's too wide to be a classic one, but we'll know if the OEX breaks through it to the upside and doesn't immediately reverse. Three-minute Keltner resistance roughly coincides with the top of that channel, at about 575.55. Further three-minute Keltner resistance at 576.30. The OEX is at the mid-channel level on that three-minute chart, trying to firm up support there, but it's three-minute climb does looks like a bear flag, and a classic one.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 2:37:49 PM

August crude oil closed lower by 2.25 or 3.75% at 57.825, off a session low of 57.275.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 2:35:18 PM

RUT dropping toward that 38.2% retracement of the bounce off Thurday's low. Just a little more than a point away now.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 2:34:32 PM

The OEX is currently climbing within what looks like a bear flag formation on its three-minute chart, and may have broken below that flag's support as I typed. A new low below the 2:00-ish low would be needed to confirm that. A problem for would-be bears is that the OEX's formation on its 15-minute chart could still be classified as a possible bull flag, although it looks too wide with relationship to the climb that preceded it. The OEX has now just barely retraced more than 50% of the day's range, and won't retrace 61.8% until it drops below 574.

It has, however, erased its breakout signal on the 30-minute chart, and support thins. Before we get too bearish about that development, the same thing happened yeserday morning when the OEX was gain testing 570. Bearish price/RSI divergence exists, but has since the 11th. Is this the one time it's going to count, when it hasn't counted any of those other times? Feels as if it should, and I'm certain there are some aggressive traders who are attempting bearish plays, but be ready to jump right back out of the OEX zooms higher again or if it just begins a prolonged sideways trading pattern on that 30-minute chart, as it did yesterday afternoon.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 2:27:22 PM

RUT still dropping, but hasn't really steepened its drop after falling out of the last consolidation zone near the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. The 30-minute versions are below, at 660.10 and 657.34, which will be just below the 38.2% retracement of the climb off Thursday's low.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 2:22:39 PM

Ten year notes continue to rest heavily on the lows, TNX holding just below 4.2%, and QQQQ is holding the 72 SMA at 38.70. The 30 min channel has lost its uptick and is now moving sideways, direction still up for grabs but considerably less bullish than it was. Volume has trailed off since the 1st hour- nearly half of the session's volume was racked up during that hour alone.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 2:18:11 PM

The support that has been important to the SOX ever since Thursday afternoon is a 30-minute Keltner line currently at 462.43, so we'd have to see a 30-minute close beneath that Keltner line before even the barest of signals that something was changing in this strong uptrend. Further support is at 460.04 on 30-minute closes, and the actual breakout level on this chart is at 456.41. So the SOX hasn't even erased its breakout signal on the 30-minute chart until it drops below that line currently at 456.41. With that said, this is getting so, so extended, and I've said that so, so many times without any appreciable pullback. At some point, the SOX should either pull back to the midline of its rising regression channel or else trade sideways into it, with that level now at 444.04, but rising steeply.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 2:11:38 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 2:11:10 PM

Not much follow-through on the RUT after its drop to a new LOD and it's drop below the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, the first time it's been below those averages since Thursday morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 2:09:38 PM

Session low for ten year notes at 111 17/32, with TNX now up 2.8 bps at 4.191%. Next resistance is at 4.2%, with light support at 4.18%.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 2:08:41 PM

The OEX is testing mid-channel Keltner support on its three-minute chart. It reached a minimal low below the noon-ish low, but is trying to stabilize there.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 2:07:49 PM

Volume breadth is positive, but not by much and well off the morning's highs, currently +1.23:1 on the NYSE and +1.7:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 2:06:37 PM

New LOD for the RUT. Just minimal so far.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 2:05:21 PM

The TRAN has a nicely formed ascending regression channel today, and it's just testing the bottom of that channel, at about 3647.50. The TRAN is at 3649.63 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 2:04:56 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 2:04:02 PM

The RLX is so far holding above an ascending trendline off yesterday's last 15-minute low, with that trendline now at about 461.60 and the RLX now at 462.70 and bouncing a little as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 2:02:51 PM

SOX dropping away from its test of the former supporting trendline today. Bulls don't want to see a new LOD, with the previous LOD at 458.25, and with the SOX still almost five poitns above that.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:57:52 PM

RUT inching down into a retest of the day's low, but the way it's moving suggests that what it might be trying to do is form a wider and more stable bear flag. All depends on whether that new low occurs or it can hold just above it. LOD was 663.65 and the RUT is now 664.03, so it needs to pull up soon if it's going to do so.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:54:22 PM

SOX retesting the ascending trendline off the day's lows after breaking through it, as the three-minute Keltner chart had suggested it would do. Don't know the outcome, and the Keltner chart evidence is somewhat mixed. Several resistance lines convering, but many still slant higher, so they're weaker than they might otherwise be.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:52:47 PM

The OEX isn't far above the 11:54 (three-minute chart) low of 574.17, with the OEX at 475.58. The three-minute chart suggests the possibility of a bounce here, perhaps up toward 575, but it's just a possibility and not a probability. We're in another stop-running time of day here, so watch for fake-out moves. It's possible that the last run-up was it, though.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:49:49 PM

Fake-out breakout on the SOX, above that bearish rising wedge? That's a possibility as the SOX now drops below the wedge's support line and turns down again. Bulls don't want to see a new LOD. The three-minute Keltner chart suggests that there could first be a retest of the just-broken ascending trendline off the day's lows.

RUT turns back toward another test of its LOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 1:48:55 PM

QQQQ tests 72 SMA support here with the wavelet cycle as oversold as it's been all day. If a bounce is going to occur, this should be the spot. If not, the 30 min cycle upphase will stall and a new downphase should begin to form.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:45:30 PM

SOX testing the ascending trendline off the day's lows. It's slightly below it, but not seriously so. Yet. It has erased the breakout signal on the three-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:41:59 PM

OEX dropping after its test of the descending trendline off the day's high. A confirming of another lower high would come on a drop below 574.17. The OEX is at 575.07 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:40:52 PM

RUT having trouble with the 15-minute 100-sma. It's staying right at that average.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:40:15 PM

What a day. SOX now testing the breakout level on the three-minute chart, but also the ascending trendline off the day's lows, which is probably more important. That three-minute Keltner line is at 464.44, with the SOX at 464.63 as I type. The support looks relatively firm, at least firm enough to prompt a small bounce. We'll see what the SOX does with it.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 1:38:26 PM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:33:09 PM

SOX coming back to test the top of that rising regression channel again and the three-minute Keltner breakout level, currently at 464.34 on a three-minute closing basis. The SOX is at 464.99 as I type. It's decline doesn't yet look anything like this morning's.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:31:43 PM

RUT bouncing from its 15-minute 130-ema, to test the 100-ema, currently testing that average with the RUT at 665.69 and that average at 665.57. The RUT really did wait for other indices to bounce before it joined the party, instead of leading upward. The only thing it's led today have been declines, when markets were falling and not climbing. Watching this test of the 15-minute 100-ema and the various Fib levels off the day's range. So far, the climb isn't particularly impressive, but it's the strongest on the RUT has managed today, as seen on the 15-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:26:12 PM

Did volume go down on that bounce? Not sure I'm reading it correctly, as QCharts versions sometimes differ from others.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 1:25:46 PM

QQQQ is edging back from the 38.85 channel tops, but it's doing so on rapidly declining volume, and the short cycle indicators are sill rising below overbought territory. The bears need to see a move back below 37.75, confirmed with a break of the 72 SMA at 38.70, to prevent the 30 min channel top from advancing further. Above 37.70, the 30 min and 60 min cycle biases are to the upside.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:25:26 PM

This week, the SOX has moved into a resistance band beginning at about 449, but it doesn't seem to be having any difficult with it at all. The week isn't over, of course, but the SOX has broken out of a trading band that was a long-term band on the weekly chart and continues higher. It's broken above long-term (since late 2003) Keltner resistance on the daily chart, and hasn't reversed that breakout within a day or two, the way it usually does. Sometime or another, the SOX needs to come back and retest the breakout zone to see whether it holds as support, but it's showing no inclination to do that this week. Unless something something happens by the end of the day, as it appeared possible earlier when the SOX verged on a key-reversal confirmation (if it had held that into the end of the day), the SOX has changed that long-term pattern with respect to its daily Keltner channel line broken this week.

The three-minute Keltner channel has been useful to watch today, and, on that chart, these breakouts continue to look excessive. The breakout level on that channel is now at about 464.19 on three-minute closes, with the SOX now at 465.54, and perhaps (emphasis on perhaps) coming down to retest that. The ascending trendline under the day's lows is near that line, too, so a break of one will be a break of both. Bulls do not want to see a quick reversal again, like this morning's.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 1:18:30 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) alert 3,655.28 +1.26% ... market may be starting to turn. A good lesson, or technicals to follow in my opinion is what the COMPX did after in eventually got back above 2,100.

Airline Index (XAL.X) 51.32 +4.50% is the "driver," but an economic bull really wants to see the FDX/UPS and the truckers do the bulk of the work.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 1:14:39 PM

New session low for August crude at 57.40, -4.33%.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:14:11 PM

I just lost charts, too, as did Mark. Must be catching.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:13:25 PM

The SOX's "bearish" rising wedge breaks to the upside. These things are just not truthworthy any longer. New HOD for the SOX, too. Bears couldn't keep it down, but now bulls do not want to see a quick reversal, as that would suggest a fake-out move. No such reversal in sight just yet, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 1:12:10 PM

QQQQ has just broken the prior range high, running toward 30 and 60 min channel resistance at 38.85: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 1:12:09 PM

QQQQ $38.75 +0.93% ... you think the Qs can trade yesterday's "back tick" at $38.90 Jonathan?

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:11:46 PM

OEX rising to test the descending trendline off the day's high. At it right now, at 575.91. Watch for a new HOD if it pushes above this line. Bulls want that new HOD; bears don't.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 1:11:13 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:08:44 PM

RUT still not going anywhere. Curious.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:07:57 PM

SOX attempting an upside breakout of the "bearish" rising wedge on its three-minute chart. No three-minute close above that line yet, but watch the previous HOD at 465.00 if the SOX does break out. At 464.39 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 1:06:38 PM

The 9B 10-year TIPs auction generated a big to cover ratio of 1.68, with a high-rate of 1.939%. Indirect bidders took a respectable 3.9B of the 9B total.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:06:45 PM

TRAN approaching/entering 3649-3670 resistance band on the daily chart. The June 7 high was 3670.79. The TRAN is currently at 3649.92.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:03:28 PM

RUT still not going anywhere. Perhaps waiting on the other indices for guidance? Smile.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:03:02 PM

SOX testing the upper trendline of that rising wedge.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:02:33 PM

TRAN again testing the high of the day, and the TRAN's pattern now reforms into a possible bullish right triangle, flat top and ascending bottom trendline. And the TRAN broke to a new HOD as I typed.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 1:02:25 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 1:01:46 PM

August crude oil is trying to bounce 20 cents above the 57.625 low, but former support at 58 should now serve as resistance. Ten year notes are holding just above the lows, with TNX up 1.6 bps at 4.179%.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 1:00:58 PM

RUT still hovering at its neckline for its H&S, at the 15-minute 130-ema. I keep expecting a bounce attempt or else a straight-down plummet, but neither is occurring.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:59:40 PM

If that's a valid bearish rising wedge on the SOX's three-minute chart, the rising trendline is now at about 463.35, but requiring a concurrent three-minute close beneath a Keltner line currently at 463.50 to confirm, and the upside trendline is now at about 464. The SOX is at 463.64 as I type, but these lines are rising steeply and three-minute Keltner lines move quickly, too.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:54:26 PM

SciClone (SCLN) ... day trader's chart with stacked (BLACK) 5-MRT at this Link ... PINK is "dynamic" and keep dragging it up if stock presses new intra-day highs. Look for confluence support if you want to keep trading.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:49:49 PM

RUT still testing the neckline of its H&S, 15-minute chart, and is also still testing its 15-minute 100/130-ema's.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:48:40 PM

At least today isn't boring. I just noticed how many hours had gone by.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:48:03 PM

Done on another 1,000 at $5.39. I'm probably done for the day. I've been burning the candle at both ends of late.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:47:15 PM

On the last three-minute close, the SOX closed back above the breakout level on its three-minute chart. That was only a tentative close above the breakout level, but until it reverses below that line again, we must be watchful for a continued climb. Doesn't that climb off the day's low look like a bearish rising wedge, although we know how useful those have been to bears lately? Smile.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:45:42 PM

You watch ... I've been giving some room to targets of late. SCLN $5.36 and BLUE #6 ahead at $5.38.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:45:03 PM

RUT still hovering at/just under the neckline of its H&S on its 15-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:44:29 PM

Another OEX chart, this a two-hour Keltner one: Link On this chart, there's a hint of Keltner-style bullish divergence as this channel line is tested (pierced the line this time when it didn't last time), but it's only a hint, and this resistance has proven relevant.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 12:42:52 PM

Here's a sentiment chart that a friend pulled off his Bloomberg. Again, it's a secondary indicator only, but worth a look: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:42:30 PM

Done on 1,000 at $5.30.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:42:26 PM

The RUT is confirming its H&S on its 15-minute chart, although only tentatively, and it's still hovering at the 15-minute 130-ema.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:41:06 PM

Here's a monthly OEX chart with that resistance band that I've had marked on my chart for a while, a long while. Link If you study that chart, you can see a potential inverse H&S at the bottom of the decline off the bull-market high with a neckline somewhere within that formation. It's a rough formation and there was no bullish divergence as the head was formed, at least not on the monthly chart, but still, it's there, and it's a bottoming formation. The problem is that the right shoulder is getting awfully extended in time, so it's perhaps not as valid a formation as it looked to be back at the beginning of this year. Bulls need to push the OEX through this resistance band, or else bears will gain confidence again. This is just a edge-of-the-seat time for both bulls and bears, I think. A further study of that chart shows that the OEX has not retraced even 50% of the bear market decline and instead hovers now near the 38.2% Fib level (near, as measured in monthly terms, as that Fib level is at about 561.23), so we can't assume great recovery here, just yet.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:40:17 PM

Bullish day trade target alert ... for SCLN $5.29.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:38:12 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... with SciClone Pharma (SCLN) $5.22 +11.06% breaking to session high, raise the stop to $5.10.

Tab Gilles : 7/14/2005 12:37:05 PM

To clarify,12:28:04 PM post. I was stopped out on MUR back on 7/1, see 7/1/05 9:45AM post. Today's chart points out bearish divergence and retracements.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:32:21 PM

Southwest Air (LUV) $14.68 +5.0% ... Company said Q2 profits surged 41% with net income coming in at $159 million, or $0.20 per share. Revenue up 13.3% to $1.94 billion from $1.72 billion last year. Consensus was for $0.18 per share.

The low cost carrier said cost-cutting efficiencies helped offset a 25% rise in fuel costs.

The company said it ended the second quarter with $2.3 billion cash on hand, plus a fully available unsecured revolving credit line of $575 million.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:29:43 PM

Advdec line dropping out of its last bear flag.

Tab Gilles : 7/14/2005 12:28:04 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) With oil dropping to near $58, MUR is below 10-ema and testing 25% retracement. I'm looking for a retracement to the 100/150-ema level to re-enter. Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 12:27:36 PM

QQQQ update at this Link with the upward trending action in the wavelet cycle suggesting a return of short cycle strnegth. The key test here will be whether the bulls can take out the early 38.88 high or not. A lower high should pave the way for that bearish divergent 30 min cycle downphase, while a higher high will confirm today's strength and the ongoing daily cycle upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:26:45 PM

Southwest Air (LUV) $14.70 +5.15% ... good gravy. Saw what looked like a little reverse head/shoulder pattern late last night. What's going on here?

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:26:12 PM

RUT trying to stabilize just above the neckline for its H&S on the 15-minute chart.

Jane Fox : 7/14/2005 12:25:46 PM

Linda my TSs' AD line's daily low is -227 so both TS and Qcharts are in sync with respect to the AD line.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:25:01 PM

BIX also testing its day's high. We can see where some of the strength comes from. However, although there's not going to be overlap in the OEX's big caps and the RUT's small caps, remember to watch the RUT, too, for a guide to short-term sentiment and appetite for equities.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:23:55 PM

TRAN testing its day's high again. Just won't give up.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:23:32 PM

The advdec line just keeps dropping lower, currently at -225 according to QCharts. The advdec volume has steadied, though.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:24:04 PM

SciClone Pharma (SCLN) $5.11 +8.72% ... day traders might want to slap on a 5-MRT and a "dynamic" retracement.

Then slap on a dynamic for the BTK.X 600.80 +0.85%.

Would be nice if the RUT.X 664.94 -0.40% were bidding, but might be near some option expiration gravity point.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:21:30 PM

The OEX's pattern could still be a bull flag, although it's a bit too wide in relationship to the straight-up climb that preceded it. Should be a narrower range of lower lows and lower highs, I would think. Still, we'll see soon, as the OEX rises through that high. Watch first the descending trendline off the day's high, now at about 576.15, if I've drawn it correctly. There's three-minute Keltner resistance waiting right there. If that's broken, watch the day's high. Bulls want a new HOD; bears, a lower high of the day, or even a downturn now to a new LOD and a steeper downturn at that.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:18:33 PM

RUT dropping to test that neckline again.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:19:27 PM

Host America -Warrants- (CAFEW) $3.52 -15.58% ... #3 on percentage loser list today.

Host America (CAFE) $8.71 -7.34% ...

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:16:47 PM

The RUT has dropped to test its 15-minute 100/130-ema's, averages it hasn't tested since--you guessed it--Thursday morning. A bounce attempt might be expected, especially as the RUT verges on a confirmation of its H&S (ignoring this morning's soon reversed spike) on its 15-minute chart. This is a value that short-term RUT bulls need to defend. The RUT just touched the neckline about 30 minute ago, with that neckline now at about the level of the 130-ema, at 668.85. The RUT is at 665.15 as I type, with the 100-ema at 665.67, just above it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:15:29 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 12:14:51 PM

August crude is down 2.15 here at 57.85, off a low of 57.725 and setting new lows for this week.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 12:12:52 PM

August gold just dipped below 420 to 419.70 at the low, bouncing as I type. Link If this level fails to hold, 416-417.50 is next support, with the daily cycle indicators now oversold.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:12:05 PM

The SOX's breakout level on the three-minute chart is now 463.22 (on three-minute closes), with the SOX at 463.05. That three-minute resistance had looked as if it were softening, allowing for this climb.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:10:48 PM

The BIX and the TRAN keep rattling around near their day's highs, with their prices patterns difficult to define. Both need to weaken before we believe too strongly in an OEX pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:11:24 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) alert $41.93 -0.99% ... breaking below important near-term support (technical and psychological).

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:08:41 PM

OEX testing the 50% retracement of the day's range, having fallen out of that likely bearish right triangle, but the OEX keeps reforming its price pattern today, and now it looks as if it could be a bull-flag pullback off the day's high. Some indices would argue against that conclusion, with the RLX being one, but here comes the OEX in another bounce attempt.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:06:30 PM

The RLX dropped all the way down to erase all the day's gains, but now rises in what may be a bear flag, although it's a bit wide. It hasn't yet bounced back to retest the 61.8% retracement of the day's range (bouncing to test it from the underside), much less the 50% range, though.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 12:05:42 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:04:39 PM

RUT just diving and diving. This is not good news for the bears, although the RUT remains within its steeply ascending regression channel on the daily chart. It can't seem to get a foothold. Steep dives (at least as seen on a three-minute chart) are followed by tepid bounces.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 12:01:37 PM

The TRAN tests the shoulder level for its potential inverse H&S, although if it falls much further, it will have invalidated this not-to-be-trusted continuation-form pattern. Hasn't done that yet, and the TRAN is essentially just chopping around at the top of the day's range. I could describe it's pattern variously as an inverse H&S or even a broadening formation, or a rectangular formation with one quickly reversed dip out of the range. Depends on one's bias, and I'm trying not to have one.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 12:00:16 PM

Volume breadth is down to +1.32:1 for the NYSE and +2.04 for the Nasdaq- it's so far looking like that big +12.5:1 reading was a blowoff, but the short cycle might have another upphase left.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:58:11 AM

SOX three-minute Keltner resistance looks weaker, but the SOX is nevertheless getting turned back by a three-minute line that's now at 462.72. It's currently testing that midpoint of the day's range again.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 11:57:07 AM

QQQQ is pulling back sharply from its bounce attempt, with gold and crude oil sitting on new lows. 72 SMA support is at 38.58 here, below which the 30 min cycle bears should be able to seize the ball.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:56:08 AM

The SOX has been mostly skipping along the 15-minute 21-ema since last Thursday, although it did violate that ema for about an hour yesterday morning. That ema is now at 459.60, so the SOX would need a strong and not tepid 15-minute close beneath that ema before there was any change in trend. The 15-minute 100/130-ema's were last tested early Thursday morning, and they're now at 451.69 and 449.02, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:51:32 AM

Now that the longer-term OEX Keltner charts have settled down a bit, I'm turning to the 15-minute and 30-minute charts. The breakout levels there, and potential support, are at 574.74 on the 15-minute chart and 575.08 on the 30-minute chart, these on 15-minute and 30-minute closes, as appropriate. The OEX has converted its neutral triangle to a more bearish-looking one, but there hasn't been a break of that triangle's support yet, and we can see why, with 15- and 30-minute Keltner support joining with a Fib support from the midpoint of the day's range.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 11:49:15 AM

Shutting down computer for a couple of minutes... back by 12:00

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:48:14 AM

The OEX dropped below the 50% retracement level, but by only a few cents and for only a few moments. The OEX now bounces. The OEX needs to produce a new three-minute high, above the last 576.52 one, or it's in danger of settling into a bearish right triangle formation (flat bottom and descending top trendline.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:46:46 AM

The SOX's three-minute Keltner resistance continues to soften.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 11:46:05 AM

Crude continues to crater, now down 1.60 to 58.40, a new low. 50 tick 4 day chart at this Link , targeting Monday's 58.025 low.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:45:46 AM

When you turn away from the RUT's three-minute chart and look at the daily chart, you can see that today's pullback keeps the RUT well within the strong ascending regression channel in which it's traded off the April low. Today couldn't be a key reversal or anything so negative for the RUT because the RUT didn't punch to a new recent high. It reached that high two days ago. Depending on what happens today, the RUT's last three days of red candles have shown small-bodied red candles as the RUT pulls back toward the midline of its rising regression channel. So, nothing terrible has happened, although it look vulnerable to that midline, now at about 662.50 or perhaps to the bottom of the channel, at about 650.70. It will be a break of that channel, but particularly of the 30-sma that's been rising right underneath it, now at 640.75, that will show a change in trend, so to answer my rhetorical question in my 11:32 post, I guess some might be willing to buy the RUT either at that midline or at the bottom of the rising regression channel, but I think I'd want to see how it gets there before I bought it. That channel just looks too steep to go on forever to me. I think the RUT probably needs to break out of it, and establish a new and more moderate climb, even if it is to continue climbing, something I'm not sure will happen since the RUT hit daily Keltner resistance two days ago. However, you can ask anyone trading during mo-mo times if they haven't even seen prices break out of such "too-steep" channels to the upside, defying gravity.

The SOX, however, could produce a key reversal day today, if it closes with a red candle after punching to a new recent high and doing it quickly, in the first few minutes of trading (one of the parameters of a key reversal day). That first steep rise was accomplished on strong volume, too, another parameter (using the SMH as a proxy to look at volume).

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 11:41:37 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Day trade raise stop alert for SciClone Pharma (SCLN) to $4.99.

Establish stop for the now Naked Apple Computer AAPL Aug. $35 Put (AAQ-TG) at $0.90.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 11:35:44 AM

New session low for crude oil at 58.90, -1.10. TNX is up .6 bps at 4.169%, back above the confluence zone.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:32:55 AM

The RUT just dropped below the ascending trendline off yesterday's lows, and now hesitates just below or at that trendline, depending on whether I've got it exact. This would be an expected place for the RUT to bounce, but would you want to buy the thing after it erased all this morning's gains and then some in such a dramatic way?

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:31:18 AM

The TRAN is pulling back again, but it has a potential inverse H&S at the top of its climb. Regardless of how I feel about these continuation-form inverse H&S's, I'm certainly going to watch, particularly since the TRAN has shown some strength in relationship to other indices when they began pulling back. If the TRAN is going to get in synch with some other indices today, then it needs to dop below a 50% retracement of the day's range, currently at about 3627.50. The TRAN is at 3638.49,and has strong a reluctance to stay down too long.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:28:47 AM

The OEX has now erased its three-minute breakout signal convincingly, for the first time today. It needs to drop below 574.57 to confirm its lower high, but it could rise instead to test 575.70-575.90 Keltner resistance.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:27:12 AM

The OEX's automakers are showing strong gains this morning. Burlington N Santa Fe up 1.76%. So is Delta Airlines, at least on a percentage basis, up 8.14%. INTC, NSM and MSFT both up more than 1% as are some of the financials. TMW up 2.64%, and Viacom up 1.71%. ATI up 1.77%, and DIS and Dow both up more than 1%. Just a snapshot of some of the OEX's big gainers today.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 11:24:15 AM

Crude oil is down 60 cents here at 59.40, off a high of 60.15 and a low of 59.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 11:22:23 AM

Back. Volume breadth has come back down to earth, +1.17:1 on the NYSE and +2.37:1 on the Nasdaq, but with relatively little price correction to match it. The short cycle downphase is roughly half way to oversold territory, and if the bulls can continue to block the selling, the next upphase could set up a retest of the highs. 2-day chart of the QQQQ at this Link . Disregard today's pivot lines, as the S1 line appears above the daily pivot and is clearly wrongly placed.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:20:28 AM

The OEX has now dropped below the breakout level on its three-minute chart, but it's not dropping away from that Keltner line, but instead climbing it on the underside. The OEX hasn't committed itself to the downside, even over the short-term yet, and why should it, with its components pulling in opposite directions.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:18:35 AM

Out of some of the recent big gainers I've been watching, here's how some of the indices are performing: SOX at about the midpoint of today's range, climbing off the LOD in a flag-like formation but climbing a bit higher than a bear flag perhaps should. RUT diving and looking as if it's perhaps breaking down out of its last bounce attempt to test the day's low again. RLX coiling near the day's low. TRAN hovering near the day's high. So, recent market leaders show mixed results here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 11:17:30 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:15:50 AM

SOX pulling back within its flag-like formation, now at the 50% retracement of the day's range, but trying to bounce again from that Fib level.

Tab Gilles : 7/14/2005 11:15:19 AM

Sepracor (SEPR) Nice bounce off of 200-ema. Link

I highlighted this stock yesterday 10:27 AM post. Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:14:52 AM

Can't these indices pull the same direction for once, so we know what's going on? The TRAN keeps trying to push to new highs. Well, it's not trying: it does, but then it drops back.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:13:36 AM

RUT bouncing, but the RUT has been falling steeply, bouncing mildly, and then falling steeply again all day. It's not far above an ascending trendline off yesterday's lows, with that trendline at about 666.80 and with the RUT now at 667.64. There could be a bounce attempt from that trendline, but there's danger (to RUT bulls) now that this morning's steep rise was a failed attempt to invalidate a H&S on the 15-minute chart. The rise of course did invalidate the formation but prices then dropped so quickly that the invalidation itself is now questionable. What did Jonathan used to call these steep rises and just-as-steep reversals?

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 11:13:30 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:10:04 AM

New HOD a few minutes ago on the TRAN.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:09:24 AM

The SOX broke above the 50% retracement of the day's range and pushed the three-minute Keltner resistance higher while it was doing so, but didn't create a new breakout signal on the three-minute chart. Bears would have preferred for the SOX not to be able to retrace more than 50% of the dqay's range, however. That retracement was at about 461.61, with the SOX currently at 461.22.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:07:59 AM

OEX still producing three-minute closes above the breakout level on the three-minute chart, but as I type dipping below that Keltner line, just by a few cents so far, fo rthe first time today.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:07:00 AM

The RLX hasn't been able to mount much of a bounce yet, although it's attempting again as I type. It's currently testing the 61.8% retracement of the day's range, testing from underneath that Fib level, but it's coiling at the bottom of its day's range and there hasn't been a breakout either direction of that coil.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 11:02:55 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 11:02:11 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:02:07 AM

The OEX now tests its breakout level on the three-minute chart. It hasn't had a three-minute close beneath that Keltner line all day.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 11:00:12 AM

SOX three-minute Keltner resistance may be softening a bit now. It extends up to 462.27. The SOX is at 461.60 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 11:00:07 AM

Dumped 500 shares of Correctional Services (CSCQ) $5.77 +31.43% .... if any traders long from Tuesday's 03:57:14, I would suggest taking some profits.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:59:14 AM

There goes the TRAN again, bouncing right back up again into the early-morning congestion zone. It's not giving up yet, and that's a warning sign to bears.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:52:59 AM

The OEX still coils.

Tab Gilles : 7/14/2005 10:52:44 AM

Computer Software Sector ($GSO) Resistance Link MSFT Link

Computer Hardware Index ($GHA) Link AAPL Link CSCO Link

Semi Index ($SOX) Link INTC Link

$COMPQ Link $NDX Link

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:52:15 AM

The TRAN did confirm its double-top formation on the three-minute chart, and this time, did meet the downside target. Is the TRAN weakening? The TRAN confirmed an upside breakout of its inside-day formations, but one reason that I don't like inside-day formations is that I've seen a number of times (like every time I tried an inside-day trade, it seemed--smile) when there's an early fake-out move that gets reversed. Still, the TRAN has been holding up better than some indices.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 10:52:06 AM

The lack of strength in bonds today is puzzling despite the Fed's 23B worth of repos (net 6.75B added). This could be in light of the weaker than usual participation from indirect bidders at yesterday's auction, though the 3B out of 13B isn't drastically lower than the usual 25-30% participation.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:49:30 AM

SOX still holding below the 50% retracement of the day's range, and three-minute Keltner resistance, now at about 461.95-461.15. It hasn't confirmed that resistance by moving to a new LOD, however.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:48:32 AM

OEX still coiling, and not breaking to the upside out of that neutral formation. Instead, it's moving down to test its breakout level on its three-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 10:46:01 AM

The trending short cycle indicators are heading south here, the move off the highs a short cycle downphase from well above the 72 SMA. Given the potential bearish divergences if the 30 and 60 min cycles turn down and the high volume on the surge, this is a dangerous spot for bulls as well as bears- a selloff from here could set up a high volume doji for day.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:45:02 AM

OEX is coiling at the top of the day's range. Such a neutral coil is neutral, of course, but often expected to break to the upside. We'll see if this one does. Such a break would need to be confirmed by a new HOD. Bulls, keep those stops snugged up, though.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:43:08 AM

New LOD on the RUT.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:42:49 AM

TRAN pauses just above the confirmation level for its double-top formation. The TRAN just doesn't want to confirm any bearish formations or meet the downside targets when it does today . . . dropping just below the confirmation level as I type, but not yet following through.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:41:40 AM

The OEX turned back from a lower high, but hasn't confirmed that lower high by a breakdown below the last three-minute low, at 574.57. OEX 574.53 also marks the 50% retracement of the day's range. A move below that level would also erase the OEX's breakout signal on the three-minute chart, something the OEX has not yet done today. The OEX is at 575.65 as I type, holding to other Keltner support.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:39:57 AM

So far, SOX 461.60-462 Keltner and Fib resistance holds, but the SOX still tests it, and the outcome isn't known yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:36:12 AM

So far, 461.60-ish SOX resistance is holding. Still early in the test, though.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:35:35 AM

BIX near its HOD, too, retesting three-minute Keltner resistance at 370.42, with the BIX at 370.31 as I type. Can't get too bearish on the OEX with the BIX near the HOD, either, although the BIX didn't look as strong relatively as some other indices this morning.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:34:30 AM

TRAN pulling back slightly from that few-cents-higher HOD. Still in double-top territory, but still hasn't confirmed it yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 10:34:05 AM

QQQQ has just surpassed half of yesterday's volume after the first hour, on track to be a heavy day for a change.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:33:56 AM

SOX testing the 50% Fib marker of the day's range, with three-minute Keltner resistance now turning slightly higher, but still from 461.61-461.96. Bears want to see a rollover from here, down to a new LOD.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:32:41 AM

TRAN pushing toward a new HOD, but hasn't reached it yet. Think we have to watch the TRAN today before we get too bearish. Just reached a new HOD as I type, but by only a few cents so far.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:31:36 AM

The RUT just hasn't been able to mount much of a bounce at all yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 10:30:44 AM

Ten year notes are down to a new session low at 111 1/2, with TNX up 2.4 bps to 4.187%.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:30:34 AM

The TRAN confirmed a H&S on its 1-minute chart, but did not fall all the way to its target, a warning. It did fall, but then rose immediately again to retest the day's high. It so far has posted a slightly lower high, but it may not be through trying just yet, as it has not confirmed the double-top formation by falling beneath 3634.69, and still tests the high.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:28:15 AM

No real rollover in the OEX today, and it's not yet following the SOX's and RUT's patterns with respect to the three-minute Keltner charts. It holds its breakout level. No new HOD as yet, either.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:27:25 AM

The SOX's bounce isn't as clearly a flag-like formation as it might be, at least as seen on the three-minute chart, but there is some back and forth to the pattern as the SOX now tests the 61.8% retracement of the day's range, and chugs toward Keltner resistance and the 50% retracement at about 461.60. Short-term (and maybe intermediate-term if the SOX should produce a key reversal day today) bears want to see that 461.60 level hold as resistance.

Tab Gilles : 7/14/2005 10:27:13 AM

Two different looks at the semiconductor sector...

$SOX Link

SMH Link

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:25:10 AM

OEX still climbing after finding support at the three-minute Keltner breakout level and the 50% retracement of its day's range, with that FIB level at 574.53. Previous HOD at 576.70, right at the long-term resistance band that I've had marked on my daily chart for many, many months. Still, we've seen breakouts everywhere and we could here, too. Bears want to see a rollover from a lower high. Bulls want to see a new HOD.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 10:24:51 AM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for SciClone Pharma (SCLN) $5.04 +7.23% here (limit $5.10), stop $4.95, target $5.28.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:22:59 AM

I'm watching the SOX today because it's so key to other action. The SOX is above 460 again (oops, dropped a little as I was typing), moving up toward three-minute Keltner resistance just above 461.55. That's near the new 50% retracement of the day's range (taking into account the fall into the gap), with that Fib number at 461.61. Short-term bears want to see the SOX climb in a flag-like manner toward that resistance and then turn down from the test.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 10:21:05 AM

QQQQ's wavelet cycle, which tracks a short enough cycle to measure these quick dips and bounces, is verging on a buy signal from oversold terrutory if price holds above 38.55. At this "subatomic" level, though, it's common to have trending moves and other irregularities. This would be a setup for a lower high to complete an intraday head and shoulder above 38.50-.55 (using premarket data and with the top at 38.88).

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:19:53 AM

Following the earlier pattern of the SOX, the OEX hit the breakout level on its three-minute Keltner chart and bounced from that. If it follows the rest of the SOX's pattern, it will find a lower high, and then fall below the breakout level.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:18:36 AM

Sorry, those previous three-minute support levels I listed for the RUT and SOX were actually one-minute targets, perhaps not as reliable. The RUT was actually sitting on mid-channel support on the three-minute and the SOX had approached that level, and both are bouncing from above the mid-channel levels as well as from their gap levels. Now bears would like to see a more measured climb and a rollover from there. The SOX looks as if it has considerable three-minute resistance between the 61.8% and 50% retracement of the day's range, at about 561.50. The RUT's three-minute resistance hasn't firmed in quite the same way, but there are three-minute Kelner lines near both the 61.8% and 50% retracements, at about 670.58 and 671.08. The RUT's bounce attempt hasn't been too successful as yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 10:17:42 AM

Headlines:

CEO CONFIDENCE MEASURE FALLS TO 55 IN Q2 - CONF BOARD

CEOS LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT ECONOMY VS IN Q1- CONF BOARD

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 10:15:08 AM

Session low for August crude oil here, -.525 at 59.475.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:13:26 AM

The RUT has bottom Keltner support on its three-minute chart at 668.23, so perhaps watch for a RUT bounce attempt from that level or above?

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 10:17:01 AM

Avid Technology (AVID) $40.57 -26.61% Link ... sharply lower after the software maker said it expects Q2 revenue decline. Company said it now sees Q2 revenue of $160 million and earnings of $12-$13 million, or $0.36 per share. Consensus was $171 million revenues and $0.58 EPS.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:12:45 AM

The SOX will hit bottom three-minute support at a Keltner line currently at 457.20. Perhaps watch for a bounce attempt from that level or above?

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 10:12:14 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:11:49 AM

RUT testing this morning's gap. SOX into this morning's gap.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:11:21 AM

The TRAN also has a H&S-ish formation on top of its 1-minute chart, with that formation not yet confirmed. That will require a drop below about 3635.90, with the TRAN dropping toward a test of that confirmation level as I type. The TRAN until now has been holding near the top of the day's range.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:10:12 AM

BIX confirms its H&S on the 1-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:09:40 AM

The SOX and RUT have both erased their breakout signals on the three-minute Keltner channels. So has the RLX. The BIX never convincingly broke out, but lingers near the day's high, but verges on completing a H&S on the one-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:07:58 AM

The OEX maintains its upside breakout signal, drifts down in a more mannerly pattern than the RUT and the SOX did, and hasn't even retraced 38.2% of the day's range yet. That 38.2% retracement is at about 575.04 and the 50% retracement at 574.53. The OEX's pattern could still be a bull flag, although it had steepened its decline for one three-minute period.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:06:08 AM

The RUT has also retraced more than 50% of the day's range, but also so far holds above this morning's gap.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 10:05:49 AM

VIX.X 10.57 -2.49% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 10.38, 10.60, Piv= 11.02, 11.23, 11.65

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:05:31 AM

SOX has retraced more than 50% of the day's range, but hasn't headed into this morning's gap yet, and remains above 460.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:04:49 AM

The BIX consolidates near the day's high, but may be forming a H&S on the three-minute chart. By the way, the BIX affected only a tentative upside breakout of the three-minute Keltner channels, unlike some other indices that broke cleanly through, setting up strong upside breakout signals.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 10:04:07 AM

My daily pivot calculations have gone awry, with my chart displaying daily S1 above the daily pivot. In any event, the 72 SMA is up to 38.40, 30 min channel ressitance at 38.64 and rising as fast as it can with price correcting back down. The short cycles are trending hopelessly and cannot be used until price stabilizes a bit, but in the meantime, the key level will be 38.40, coincidentally at yesterday's highs. The 30 min cycle upphase will stall on a break of QQQQ 38.40, and a short cycle downphase should kick off then.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:03:44 AM

The RLX, of some importance lately in OEX action, has retraced 50% of the day's range, and now tries to hold that 50% retracement, at about 463.85, with the RLX now at 463.95.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 10:02:22 AM

SOX now testing the breakout level on the three-minute chart, holding it so far, but tentatively. SOX bulls would rather the SOX not test that upside gap this morning, and they sure don't want to see the SOX end up negative after a strong, early rise that pierced to a new recent high. That's far from happening yet, though.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 10:02:07 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 9:59:29 AM

The OEX's three-minute Keltner chart picture: Extreme upside breakout on that chart, and not even a test of the breakout level yet, with that level at 574.23, currently, but quickly rising. The OEX is beginning to drop a bit now, but in a pattern that as of yet still looks like a possible bull flag on the three-minute chart. On that short of an interval, the picture can change quickly, and may be doing so as I type, as the drop is steepening.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 9:58:02 AM

I'm turning to some three-minute Keltner charts this morning, since they sometimes do have remarkable validity, especially on fast-moving days. Even on slow-moving days, they sometimes tell me first when support or resistance might be massing, when the longer-term chart might still be ambiguous. On the SOX's three-minute nested Keltner chart, there is that kind of validity, and there was obviously an upside breakout this morning. The SOX's dip was right down to the breakout level, now having risen a little to 460.97, and the SOX then rose from there. Bulls want to see a new HOD on the SOX or at least a steadying; bears want first to see a lower high, followed by a three-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 460.97.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 9:55:45 AM

The Fed has followed up its big 12B 14-day repo with a big 11B overnight repo, for a net add of 6.75B today.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 9:51:48 AM

Volume breadth is down to + 5.89:1 on the NYSE and +3.77:1 on the Nasdaq, still in strong positive territory.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 9:50:41 AM

SOX dropping off its 465.00 HOD, at 461.31 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 9:49:46 AM

OEX isn't pulling back much just yet, and certainly maintains its breakout status on the 30-minute chart. It's not yet at the top of its broadening formation. If that were a valid formation (questionable) and if it were to behave as they traditionally do (also questionable over the last couple of years), the OEX wouldn't touch the top of that formation again.

The OEX is, however, hitting a long-term horizontal S/R line that I've had marked on my charts for many, many months. Lots of opens, closes, HOD's beginning at about 576 and extending up to 580. I am going to proclaim myself to officially be Chicken Little, but watch those bullish profits here.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 9:49:13 AM

The Fed has 12B in 14-day repos and 4.25B in overnight repos expiring today, and has so far announced a 12B 14-day repo, leaving the 4.25B to address at the 10AM short term announcement.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 9:55:57 AM

Swing trade put close out alert ... should be closed out of the one (1) Apple Computer AAPL Oct. $40 Put (AAQ-VH) at $2.40 bid when AAPL traded stop of $41.50.

AAPL $41.91 +9.33% ... here

Will hold the AAPL Aug. $35 Put (AAQ-TG) as Naked

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 9:45:14 AM

NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) alert 7,455.38 +0.73% ... all-time high.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 9:39:08 AM

Volume breadth 12.5:1 positive on the NYSE and 8.95:1 on the Nasdaq, no sellers to be found.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 9:37:33 AM

RUT beginning to pull back, but not the fast-moving SOX.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 9:36:32 AM

Strong daily Keltner resistance for the OEX at 578.77 and the top of the broadening formation is also just above that, so that's another place at which bullish profits should be guarded.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2005 9:35:52 AM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.02 and set for program selling at $+2.32.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 9:35:47 AM

Excessive, excessive, but still going. I don't mind telling you that it scares me to death, but not those benefiting from all the climbing. Congratulations, bulls, and hold onto those now massive bullish profits.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 9:34:38 AM

OEX climbing, of course, as was expected, now above the raised 30-minute target, although we're far from closing the first 30-minute period. Be aware of the possibility of a pop-and-drop day as some markets reach upside targets, but it's not setting up that way so far. RLX climbing, but isn't above the top of yesterday's inside-day candle, at least not yet. Testing it. TRAN is above the top of yesterday's inside-day candle, but not of the day before's. Not sure of the protocol for a double-inside day pattern. SOX climbing.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 9:34:27 AM

QQQQ is hanging nearly 20 cents abouve upper 30 and 60 min channel support, a setup for a quick gap n crap that is so far not materializing. If this gap does not fill within the next 10-15 minutes, it will suggest a very bullish upside trending move. Again, the daily cycle upphase has been consistently strong since it kicked off.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 9:29:58 AM

The specific numbers for OEX 30-minute resistance levels are 572.84 and 573.90, according to the 30-minute Keltner channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 9:21:28 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycle indicators have finally turned up, currently chasing the price higher. That, of course, sets up the possibility of another bearish divergence, but only if price turns down from here. That's the usual theme all the way up with trending indicators, and so it should be treated with great caution. The clearer signal has been the daily cycle, which has been in an upphase since early last week and continues to point north. Until we see a violation of the previous day's low on a closing basis, the daily cycle upphase should be viewed as the overriding trend.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 9:18:15 AM

Futures are up this morning. If the cash markets follow through with futures action, the OEX may be headed up to the 30-minute upside target near 574, although historical support resistance near 572 has been a bit of a sticking point for the OEX. This continues to be a market in which bulls' only task is to protect markets, but one which so far has offered no pullback from which to measure the sustainability of the rally or that might offer new bullish entry points.

The OEX posted a gain Wednesday, but here's something to mull over: Link As annotated on the chart, the unpredictability of the OEX's action certainly fits that of a broadening pattern, but this one is too large with respect to the previous move for me to have complete confidence that we can have widened the formation that way and consider it valid. Whatever it is, the trendlines can be watched, and this corroborates my own natural caution in making assumptions through here. I've just felt as if something is wrong, but perhaps that was just because I was caught off-guard by the strength of the bounce. That upper trendline is now near 580, so that should be watched if the OEX should continue gaining this week.

As of yesterday's close, the OEX had completed a sort of amalgamation of an advance block and deliberation bearish reversal patterns, not quite fitting the parameters of either, but sort of fitting the idea behind both, if that makes sense. Each of the last three white candles shows signs of decreasing strength. These are bearish reversal signals, but of course, futures this morning show little chance of a reversal if the cash markets follow futures action. Even if all parameters of such formations are met, each is only a moderately reliable reversal signal, so I had already decided at the close yesterday that I wouldn't assume that the OEX would pull back.

At the close, the OEX was consolidating, still mostly holding to 30-minute Keltner support now at 571.59. As long as it's continuing those 30-minute closes at or above that Keltner line, no reversal can be assumed to be in progress, and it remains just a matter of current bulls continuing to protect their profits. If the OEX had not been climbing for so long, tests of that 30-minute Keltner line could be considered new bullish entries. The current 60-minute pattern, forming since late yesterday, looks just like the one that formed beginning Monday, before the break above 570. As of yesterday's close, even with that potential reversal signal, that had hinted that another bump higher to the 30-minute target near 574 was certainly possible. If so, it's likely to happen rather near the open, and then we might get another consolidation period or a pullback as resistance is hit, so probably only current bulls can benefit from this move.

The action of some other indices should be closely watched this morning. The RUT, a recent market leader, nearly confirmed an evening-star reversal signal yesterday, and it should be watched to see if there's downside follow-through or a reversal of the reversal signal. The RLX, another recent market leader, nearly completed a tweezers-top reversal signal, although the candle might best be considered a harami. The RLX should be watched to see if yesterday's range breaks, and the direction in which it breaks. The TRAN, another recent market leader, did create a harami, following a harami the previous day, so the direction of its break should be watched, too.

So, we have some other indices to watch to help us decide whether tests of that 30-minute Keltner line from which the OEX has been bouncing remain good dip-and-bounce entries or whether we should stand aside and watch the depth, shape and direction of a pullback. I certainly think we need a pullback, but markets aren't asking me. Market watchers say inflationary pressures are subsiding, but then there was discussion this morning on CNBC that there might actually have been some deflation if energy costs hadn't plumped up prices. Lacking a degree in economics, it's difficult to assess all these various claims, but there's no doubting that there have been upside breakouts that are not yet immediately reversing. As futures are setting up, we're not likely to get that pullback first thing this morning, and yesterday's near-the-close pullback would have been the best entry, but a risky one ahead of important earnings when the SOX leadership already looked extended.

Jane Fox : 7/14/2005 8:56:47 AM

Dateline WSJ U.S. consumer prices held steady in June, surprising Wall Street and validating the view of many Federal Reserve policymakers that the danger of accelerating inflation has abated.

The Consumer Price Index was unchanged in June as declines in energy prices offset gains in prices of food and housing, the Labor Department said Thursday. The so-called core index, which excludes food and energy items, rose by a moderate 0.1% for a second month in a row.

The numbers were smaller than Wall Street expected: Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC had called for a 0.2% increase in both the overall index and the core index. The report, however, supported the Fed's confidence that inflation remains under control despite a steep run-up in crude-oil prices.

The U.S. central bank has raised its key federal funds rate nine times since June 2004, lifting it to 3.25% in increments of a quarter percentage point. Fed policymakers, however, have said it will need to rise further to ensure that inflation remains tame. Wall Street widely expects the rate to climb to 3.5% next month, and to 4% by the end of 2005.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 8:54:17 AM

A moment of silence for all those GOOG July 300 call writers who are now the latest wave of premium sellers to the GOOG bear-b-cue.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 8:36:04 AM

Session high for ten year notes at 112 here, TNX down 2.8 bps to 4.135%, back below confluence support.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 8:34:12 AM

Headlines:

U.S. JUNE CORE CPI UP 0.1% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 16,000 TO 336,000

U.S. 4-WK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS STEADY AT 321,000

U.S. JUNE CPI ENERGY PRICES FALL 0.5%

U.S. JUNE CPI HOUSING PRICES UP 0.1%

U.S. JUNE RETAIL SALES UP 1.7% VS 1.0% EXPECTED

U.S. JUNE RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS UP 0.7% VS 0.6 EXPECTED

U.S. MAY RETAIL SALES REVISED TO FALL 0.3% VS UP 0.5

U.S. JUNE RETAIL SALES EX-GASOLINE UP 1.6%

U.S. JUNE RETAIL SALES EX-AUTO AND EX-GAS UP 0.6%

U.S. CORE CPI UP 2% IN PAST YEAR VS. 2.2% IN MAY

U.S. RETAIL SALES UP 9.6% YR-ON-YR IN JUNE

U.S. RETAIL SALES UP 9.6% YR-ON-YR IN JUNE

U.S. JUNE MEDICAL PRICES UP 0.2%

U.S. JUNE NEW VEHICLE PRICES FLAT

U.S. JUNE NEW VEHICLE PRICES FLAT

U.S. CPI RISING AT SLOWEST RATE SINCE SEPT.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 8:27:45 AM

Crude oil is back to green at 60.05, off a high of 60.15. Tropical Storm Emily was upgraded to hurricane status last night. More details can be had at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 8:24:17 AM

Ten year notes (ZNU5) are back to yesterday's lows at 111 43/64, with TNX up 1 bp at 4.173%. Next resistance is at 4.18%, followed by the key 4.2% level, and support is at 4.14%-4.16%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/14/2005 7:42:38 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1231.75, NQ 1575, YM 10609 and QQQQ +.22 at 38.61. Gold is down .80 to 423.90, silver -.059 to 7.015, ten year notes -1/64 to 111 3/4 and crude oil is down a nickel to 59.95.

We await the 8:30 release of Retail sales, est. .9, ex-auto est. at .5%, CPI and core CPI, est. .3% and .2% respectively, and initial claims, est. 322K.

Linda Piazza : 7/14/2005 7:22:50 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei posted a gain of more than 100 points last night, and most other Asian bourses gained, too. European markets benefit from strength in techs, as had their Asian counterparts last night. Our futures are higher. As of 6:53 EST, gold was down $1.10, and crude, down $0.27 to $59.74. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei jumped higher last night and then traded sideways the rest of the session. It closed higher by 104.42 points or 0.90%, at 11,764.26. AAPL and AMD earnings and a weaker yen against the dollar boosted the appetite for stocks, techs in particular. As many will know by now, AMD had not been expected to post a gain, but did, with processors seeing record sales. Although quarterly profit fell 65% due to lower prices for its memory chips, according to Marketwatch.com, investors focused on the unexpected gain. Japan's Advantest gained as a result of AMD and AAPL's results.

Foreign investors have increased their buying of Japanese equities for the fourth week in a row, AFX-Asia noted. Perhaps released after the close, an economic number showed June's bankruptcy cases rising 11.9% year over year and debt rising 37.7%, with the research performed by Tokyo Shoko Research. One forex source noted that this is the first monthly rise in the number of cases since August 2002. For the first half of the year, the number of cases fell 9.4% and debt dropped 16.1%.

Stock-specific news showed NUMMI, the joint venture of Toyota Motors Corp. and General Motors announcing plans to upgrade and renovate production facilities, planning to spend $142.9 million over five years to do so. One of NUMMI's plants is in Fremont, California.

Most other Asian markets gained, too. The Taiwan Weighted rose 0.65%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 1.12%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.50%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.29%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.29%.

Most European markets gain, with techs and semiconductors in particular boosting the bourses. The Eurozone's yearly GDP growth was revised slightly higher to 1.4%, up from the previous 1.3%, but first-quarter GDP growth was left at the previous 0.5% quarter-over-quarter rate. Imports and exports were both revised lower, but government and investment spending were revised higher, resulting in a firmer domestic demand component. Net trade was responsible for 0.4% of the 0.5% estimated growth, and a narrower trade surplus in the second quarter hints that GDP growth may decelerate in the second quarter. Separately, in Germany, the June CPI was revised lower to 1.8% year over year, down from the preliminary 1.9% estimate. Monthly, it was revised lower to 0.1% from the previous 0.2%. The number was unchanged when EU harmonized, an expected result. Firmer energy prices accounted for the slight upward revision, but the number still remained under the 2% EU stability target.

In company-specific news, the chairman of the London Stock Exchange stated that the company was not for sale, with the LSE having been the subject of interest from two European competitors, but that the board would remain open to the advantages that might result from such opportunities. Also, Philips Electronics was benefiting from more than general interest in tech-related stocks, as it sold its 15.4% position in Atos Origin, a French IT group. Novartis benefited from a greater-than-expected profit per share, gaining in early trading. Belgian brewer InBev mentioned challenging trading conditions but benefited from its earnings report, too. Dutch bank ING Group announced that it will trim 450 jobs, with a one-time charge to be taken in the third quarter. ING was gaining in early European trading. Vodafone will give a presentation on its German operations and was flat ahead of that presentation. Airbus VP Gerard Blanc will leave the company after his bid to become the chief executive was blocked by DaimlerChrysler, the company's biggest shareholder. J.P. Morgan upgraded Marks & Spencer, but the retailer still eased in early trading. Other broker action included a CSFB upgrade of Standard Chartered and a Morgan Stanley downgrade of Swiss cement group Holcim.

As of 7:02 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 20.20 points or 0.39%, to trade at 5,266.10. The CAC 40 had risen 28.12 points or 0.65%, to trade at 4,371.74. The DAX had risen 20.63 points or 0.44%, to trade at 4,700.52.

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