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Tab Gilles : 7/20/2005 1:25:57 AM

Intel (INTC) Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:34:57 PM

Seems as if we're all up doing research tonight, and it occurs to me that our lucky readership has its writers working nearly 24 hours a day. I'm researching Asian developments and will be up at 5:15 CST as I am each morning to continue research into developments in Europe. When I rise each morning, I often find comments from the futures writers right up until about the time I wake.

Right now, though, I'm laughing over my forex news source's unbridled comments about the European Union, and its "capacity for doing big stupid things by mistake." The article touches on the possibility that the EU countries may be able to recoup from the near disaster of a failure to ratify the constitutional treaty--a disaster because this source believes that inadequate planning has been done in the eventuality that the single currency project should fail. I have no comments on the legitimacy of these concerns, but just thought the comments' blatant criticism funny, although the thought behind them is not.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 11:06:14 PM

And with that Keene, I can go to sleep with a very huge grin on my face. If it isn't the PPT, it has to be the moon. Goodnight Arch... wherever you are!

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 10:50:56 PM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+4.64 and set for program selling at $+2.18.

OI Technical Staff : 7/19/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Keene Little : 7/19/2005 9:40:23 PM

I think Marc is correct about the market being very vulnerable to a significant decline but not yet. I think a decline tomorrow should be bought as I believe the larger price pattern has not topped out yet. The pullback over the past week points to another leg higher (looking for SPX 1257). I would use another rally leg though to suck your stops up tight and be reviewing charts for shorting candidates.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2005 9:26:39 PM

Two charts I refer to in the futures monitor, regarding sentiment: Link and Link Very scary if you are long the market.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2005 9:23:44 PM

I think all hopes were on INTC to set up the next leg. It's over now, unless Greenspan shows signs of letting up, and I don't think he will. Add a QM bid and we could make a quick trip to NQ 1569, 10 day ema. Long overdue and absolutley no reason to go higher now. Sentiment is way too bullish, record consecutive lows in equity pc ratio, and all time low of old VIX was in 1993 at 9.31, VXO hit 9.56 today. We are at an extreme, and crowds/trends are wrong at such levels.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 9:10:45 PM

I've shorted a fair number of "weak" stocks in after-hours, only to wake up in the morning and find the stock bidding higher than when it closed.

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05u) doesn't want to fall apart right now at 1,588.50. You think there might be some "minimal upside risk" bears that saw 1,600 tyring to get squared a little?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2005 9:05:14 PM

Sorry, Jeff, I got mixed up with the after-hours quote. I don't know about inventories, but the chart looks bullish again with a solid double bottom at 50 ema. If it can hold above 57.30, 76.4%, it could be headed to 58.20 soon. If 56.80 breaks however, that would be bad news for oil bulls and we could visit 55.85 very quickly. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 9:05:47 PM

Yes... he's sideways in YHOO from about $22. I think he and Jim Brown are sideways in Intel from about $20.00. As I remember things... that gap down in September of last year had Jim profiling some Jan06 LEAPS. Link ... That was a beauty with the BPSEMI at about 6%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 8:59:21 PM

I'm going to run and eat dinner, then try to get to bed at a normal hour.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2005 8:58:43 PM

Cramer's excessive bullishness on Yahoo and Intel coming to haunt him now. Ouch.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 8:56:27 PM

Marc : No... Intel (INTC) finished the regular session up $0.48, or +1.70% at $28.71.

We'll see how things shape up tomorrow. More than a couple bears still short from levels well below and they might be more than happy right now.

You have any estimates on tomorrow's oil inventory data?

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 8:50:17 PM

Yahoo (YHOO) ... option montage at this Link ... Just seeing where OI is at for August. Will see what Implied Volatility looks like early tomorrow morning.

Should a trader be assigned stock if naked the Aug. $35 Puts (YHQ-TG), a lot of risk will be taken out of the stock at the open. Volatility should spike, and I would probably sell a covered call and the Aug. $32.50's. I would be surprised if a trader were assigned stock at this point.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2005 8:48:02 PM

Jeff, I think you have your + and - signs mixed up on your last post. It's a small tech wreck after-hours.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 7:34:14 PM

Last licks ... I mean ticks ... ... Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $37.50 +1.62% at $36.89 (WEEKLY Interval chart with bullish % at 03:20:45 PM)

Intel (INTC) $28.71 +1.70% at $27.45.

Motorola (MOT) $19.85 +2% at $19.69.

Amgen (AMGN) $70.52 +0.02% at $76.41.

Yahoo! (YHOO) $37.73 +3.14% at $33.96.

QQQQ $39.18 +1.16% at $38.94.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 7:12:27 PM

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05u) down 11.50 points at 1,588.50. (see today's 10:47:03) chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 6:53:04 PM

Bullish naked put update alert for the YHOO Aug. $35 Puts ... Will cancel any order to short the underlying shares of YHOO. Stock didn't get close to $35.90 (see 04:46:53), but there was a "bad tick" up to $35.71.

Will establish a stop on the YHOO Aug. $35 Put (YHQ-TG) of $2.10 to begin. If hit, then so be it. Main goal at this point is to try and get out with MINIMAL damage, but not get cute. Let the waters calm on this one for awhile.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 6:44:26 PM

Here is one article from 05/06/05 and InfoWeek Link . After this article, YHOO never traded below $33.69.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 6:42:35 PM

I'm trying to find a note that I believe I had posted in the Market Monitor several weeks ago, which was from a research firm regarding Internet advertising. I can't find it at that time, but I'm pretty sure it came after we exited a profitable bullish trade in YHOO back in late May (05/27/05) and early June (06/01/05).

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 6:28:20 PM

Yahoo! naked put plan alert ... here's what I'm going to do tomorrow morning. At this time, it is nearly IMPOSSIBLE to try and estimate what the volatility is going to do to those YHOO Aug $35 Puts (YHQ-TG). But, I do know this .....

Assuming the stocks opens $33.80, where it is trading at now, those PUTS are going to trade at least $1.20, and I'm thinking something closer to $1.75.

Let's assume $1.80 on those options. Traders are welcome to close out at that point, but IF you want to take the chance, then I would add 15% to that price, or roughly $2.10 as a STOP, and see if the stock doesn't edge back toward WEEKLY S1 ($35.05) and give some time for volatility to come in, or decline. Extended session lows have tried to firm just above WEEKLY S2 ($33.40).

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 6:14:43 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $37.73 +3.14% ... ticking by at $33.75 Link and if we open here in the morning, volatility will spike in the options. A trader would like to avoid making any quick decisions if they can help it, but that may not be the case for everyone.

As I look through some of the newswire reports, I don't see anything alarming, and after-hours looks more like "they didn't blow away" to the upside than anything. Still, the market doesn't seem to have liked things.

Revenue came in at $1.25 billion. After subtracting commissions the company paid to other web sites in its advertising network, revenue was $875 million, up 44% from last year.

Yahoo! didn't say what "investment" the gain of $563 million, or $0.38 per share came from, but it is common knowledge that the company owns a significant stake in Google (GOOG) $309.90 +3.45%, which trades $304.00 as I type.

For the most part, excluding the one-time gain, earnings matched consensus, but revenue, minus advertising commissions, fell $6 million below the mean estimate of $881 million.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 5:59:54 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 5:42:56 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 5:35:25 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 5:14:24 PM

Today's Activity ... did not profile any new entries. Closed trades in PINK for 07/19/05 at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 5:07:19 PM

QQQQ $39.18 +1.16% .... $38.95 here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 5:06:14 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 4:59:26 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $37.50 +1.62% ... $36.87. WEEKLY Pivot $36.75.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 4:58:19 PM

Motorola (MOT) $19.85 +2.00% ... released for trade at $9.14.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 4:52:19 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) ... Reuters - The Sunnyvale, California-based online media company's second-quarter net profit was $754.7 million, or 51 cents a share including an investment gain of 38 cents a share, compared with its year-ago profit of $112.5 million, or 8 cents.

--For the latest second quarter, twelve analysts on average expected the company to earn 13 cents a share before special items, according to Reuters Estimates.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 4:46:53 PM

If naked YHOO put alert ... If naked the August $35 Puts (YHQ-TG), I'd look to short an EQUAL AMOUNT of those puts a trader is short if YHOO trades $35.90 in extended session.

I've got YHOO $34.11, with after-hours low of $32.90.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 4:38:47 PM

Google (GOOG) $309.90 +3.45% ... lower at $297.50.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 4:33:21 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $37.73 +3.14% ... sharply lower at $34.90 on headline.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 4:16:17 PM

Intel (INTC) $28.71 +1.70% ... Q2 EPS $0.33 vs. $0.27. Darts lower to $28.24

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 4:13:43 PM

Cosi, Inc. (COSI) $8.61 +6.95% ... jumps to $8.93 with company saying same store sales up 6.4%

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 4:21:26 PM

Motorola (MOT)

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 4:11:15 PM

QQQQ ... DAILY Pivot Levels for tomorrow are ... $38.71, $38.95, Piv= $39.07, $39.31, $39.43.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 4:08:56 PM

QQQQ $39.18 +1.16% ... "breaking loose" at $39.25.

Amgen (AMGN) $70.52 +0.02% ... $74.25

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 4:03:56 PM

QQQQ $39.18 +1.16% ... still flat with its 04:00 PM close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 4:02:54 PM

Amgen (AMGN) $70.52 +0.02% ... jumping to $73.31 on headline earnings.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 3:59:35 PM

The SOX is going to end the day jammed against the top resistance on the ascending regression channel on its weekly chart, shown in a chart linked to my 1:29 post.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 3:58:46 PM

Hanover Compressor (HC) updated daily interval chart we've been following/trading at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 3:56:20 PM

Four years? In my previous post, I mentioned a pullback that had endured four years. I meant days, of course, and the post has been corrected.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 3:54:56 PM

Today, the OEX climbed, erasing nearly all yesterday's gains, turning the formation for the last four days into a possible bull flag on the daily chart, forming beneath the long-term resistance zone I've had marked on my charts, with that zone at about 577.40-578.60, although it's a far from exact zone. The OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart suggests that if there is an upside breakout, suggested by a 15-minute close above the line currently at 575.25, the upside target is 577.30, so a test of that -ish resistance zone marked earlier. The upper trendline of the OEX's broadening formation on its daily chart is at about 580.30, currently. It's of course also possible to draw an ascending regression channel off the OEX's April low, with the upper resistance on that channel now at just under 585, but if that broadening channel and resistance zone have any validity, that upper boundary may not be reached. That's the question, isn't it? Whether that resistance zone will hold this time.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 3:51:06 PM

Hanover Compressor (HC) $12.54 +1.61% ... may just close above its near-term $12.50-$12.55 "zone of resistance!"

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 3:44:56 PM

The OEX has just rattled around within the upper half of a channel that spans from 571.68-575.25. It's been retesting that Keltner resistance over the last few minutes, but stopped short of actually touching it. So far.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 3:41:43 PM

QQQQ breaks upside triangle resistance here on a burst of volume: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 3:37:07 PM

The 30 min cycle indicators are looking toppy, with a bearish Macd divergence on the cusp, but in need of an actual price decline to confirm. Until that occurs, all of these numerous 30 and 60 min bearish divergences are just headfakes. With volume breadth strengthening, now +3.81:1 on the Nasdaq, bears have nothing to get excited about. The short term indicators are toppy as well, but again, price is rising, not falling. 72 SMA support is up to 39.11, below which the 30 min cycle upphase will stall. Below 39.00, which is the convergence of 30 and 60 min channel support, we should see the first downticks in the 30 min oscillators.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 3:31:53 PM

Swing trade bullish stop alert on the 1/2 bullish position in shares of Internet Initiative (IIJI) $9.80 -7.30%.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 3:31:09 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 3:30:59 PM

New HOD for the Wilshire 5000.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 3:30:58 PM

New HOD for the Wilshire 5000.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 3:25:46 PM

Session high for GOOG at 310.20 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 3:23:31 PM

Volume breadth has strengthened on the Nasdaq, up to a 3.55:1 lead for advancing volume, compared with 2.11:1 on the NYSE. The VXO is down to 9.70, VXN at 13.36.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 3:20:45 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) ... weekly interval bar chart with a conventional retracement that would market the recent inflection points of Dorsey/Wright's BPSEMI. Here's the WEEKLY Interval bar chart at this Link and here's the BPSEMI chart shown earlier today at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 3:08:54 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 3:01:48 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:58:35 PM

And yet-antoher H&S attempts to form on the Wilshire 5000's one-minute chart. The Wilshire 5000 is back inside its broadening formation, or perhaps it never really broke out as these formations are broadening, and so their parameters are sometimes difficult to define. The Wilshire's right-shoulder level is at about 12,272-12,274, with the Wilshire 5000 just below that at 12,271.26. The Wilshire 5000's action seems difficult to interpret today, as it keeps trying to set up one bearish formation after another, but can't quite confirm any of them.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 2:58:01 PM

Is this a bullish rising triangle for QQQQ intraday? Link Again, the 30/60 min cycle getting ready to top out would suggest not, but on its own, the higher lows and flat high at resistance is a generally bullish setup.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:53:49 PM

Drop over the last five minutes on the OEX when you look at a one-minute chart, but it's still just trading sideways so far, still testing just-underneath 15-minute Keltner support.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:52:20 PM

Another strong drop (on a one-minute chart) on the SOX, but it hasn't violated its last one-minute low at 467.33. We have to presume that it's just forming another right shoulder for that potential continuation-form inverse H&S, until and unless it violates that 467.33 low that formed the head of that formation.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 2:48:13 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $37.51 +1.65% ... session high has been $37.52. That is its WEEKLY R1 ($37.52). I'm going with the bullish %.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 2:46:48 PM

Internet Initiative Japan (IIJI) $10.04 -5.28% ... keeps looking like it wants to "roll over" to the downside intra-day, then finds a little bid back above $10.00. Note the volume/open interest on the Aug $10 Puts. Option chain at this Link ... I can't tell if it is a buyer or a seller.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:45:36 PM

No new HOD so far for the RLX, either.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:44:34 PM

SOX so far turning down from a test of the descending trendline off the day's high, but don't know if I trust that downturn, however, since there's a continuation-form inverse H&S on the SOX's 1-minute chart, with a neckline approximately at that descending trendline. I'll have to see a move below the last one-minute low at 467.33 before I trust the downturn and . . . oops, there it goes to retest descending trendline off the day's high as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:42:35 PM

No, Jeff, you didn't misinterpret it. I had found information that it was supposed to be released. I had found that information on a forex source, but am having difficulty logging into that source to recheck it. The same source did not list the information last night, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 2:41:57 PM

Thinking out loud about GOOG- I've noticed that it tends to track the Fed's open market operations more closely than other stocks, often jumping (or dipping) around the same time as the 10AM repo announcements. But today, it's way up despite a sizeable repo drain. The 4-week bill auction this afternoon was fairly soft as well, with foreign central bank participation particularly weak. Foreign central banks, notably the BoJ and China, have expressed a desire this year to diversify away from US treasuries into other asset classes. I wonder if there isn't some of that money finding its way into GOOG and the broader market today?

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:39:45 PM

The Wilshire 5000 has broken above the top of the broadening formation, but is coming right down to retest it, though.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:38:49 PM

SOX testing the descending trendline off the day's high, with that trendline at about 468.55 or so, and the SOX at 468.46.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 2:37:06 PM

Thanks, Jeff- that one's a keeper.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 2:37:51 PM

Jonathan! Thanks for the reply to my 12:49:21. Yes, I couldn't find anything slated for today. Here's a FOREX Link to key global economic reports. There was a BOJ monetary policy meeting, but that was it. I must have misinterpreted Linda's post from yesterday afternoon.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 2:32:25 PM

August crude oil closes +.125 at 57.45, off a low of 56.825. Updated 50 tick chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 2:31:29 PM

No change to volume breadth, +1.99:1 on the NYSE and +2.93:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ volume is low at 50.8M shares, but on track to break yesterday's light total.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:27:55 PM

This morning's Wilshire 5000 high was 12,274.89, so if the Wilshire 5000 should get above that and not be quickly slapped back, it could join some other indices that are performing better today.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 2:27:11 PM

The current sideways correction has the short cycle indicators declining for QQQQ, a corrective downphase. This should be a bullish setup, but with the 30 min cycle upphase stalling near the top of its range, there's the possibility that we're seeing a slow roll to complete its strong upphase from yesterday. In either case a break below 39 or above 39.22 should be directional: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:26:18 PM

The Wilshire 5000 bounced all the way back to the top of its broadening formation and now it's pulling back from that test. It's last bounce was from the two-minute 100-ema, so I'm watching for a test of that average, now at 12,255.66, if it should occur. The Wilshire 5000 is now at 12,265.60 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:19:31 PM

The upper, rising trendline of the RLX's broadening formation is at just under 475 as I type, with the RLX at 474.37, testing the 474.50-ish historical resistance from earlier today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 2:18:55 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:17:42 PM

The SOX's descending trendline off the day's high is at about 468.64, with the SOX now at 468.49 and rising to test it.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:16:01 PM

The SOX's bounce has been nearly as strong as its decline. It's currently testing the 1-minute 100-ema, after first testing and bouncing from that average and then plunging beneath it. Crazy stuff.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:14:41 PM

The RLX is still jumping around, at 474.09 as I type, right back inside that broadening formation. Waiting to see what happens next. The OEX just bounced from the 572.67-ish mid-channel support.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:12:55 PM

The RLX is coming up to retest the lower boundary of the broadening formation that it broke through a few minutes ago. OEX bears want to see it turned back from somewhere at or below 474. It's not far from there now.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:10:27 PM

SOX below the 467.50 level, but not by much, now in a congestion band from this morning. It is, however, threatening an erasure of its upside breakout signal on the 15-minute Keltner chart if it closes a 15-minute period below the potential support at 466.83-467.28. Remember that's a potential bounce point, too.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:08:31 PM

The RLX dropped heavily out of that broadening formation I've been mentioning, but remember that it's just on the one-minute chart. We saw some similar strong drops early this morning before it shot up again. Breakout status on the 15-minute Keltner chart will not be erased until there's a 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 471.74, and the RLX is currently at 473.51, at other potential Keltner support.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:06:26 PM

SOX testing potential 467.50-ish historical support, but this is short-term support, built off an earlier consolidation pattern today. Still, SOX bulls would rather not see it broken.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:05:18 PM

SOX dropping harder now, at least as seen on the one-minute chart. Looks spectacular there!

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:04:40 PM

RLX headed down to test the support of the broadening formation on its one-minute chart, that support now at about 473.88 with the RLX at 473.97.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:03:55 PM

OEX still moving sideways while OEX traders try to figure out the various forces pulling it one way or the other.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 2:02:14 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 2:00:06 PM

The Wilshire 5000 also forms a broadening formation on top of its climb on its 1-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 1:59:33 PM

Semiconductor Bullish % (BPSEMI) from www.dorseywright.com as of last night at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 1:59:31 PM

No new HOD yet for the SOX on the last bounce off the 1-minute 100/130-ema's, the first test of these averages since late yesterday afternoon.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 1:59:11 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 1:57:45 PM

Hmm. The RLX is forming a broadening formation on top of its one-minute chart, support currently at about 473.90, but still descending. The RLX is dropping through that broadening formation as I type, as is currently at 474.15, trying to bounce ahead of that broadening formation support.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 1:54:54 PM

The RLX hasn't quit yet. Still bouncing from five-minute Keltner support now at 474.16, with the RLX at 474.57 as I type, and within cents again of the former HOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 1:51:51 PM

QQQQ has pulled back to test the rising 72 SMA line for the first time today, currently at 39.07. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 1:52:17 PM

Pardon Me! IBM is not a component of the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) ... Components ... AA, C, CAT, CSX, DCN, DD, DE, DOW, ETN, F, FDX, GP, GT, HON, HPQ, IP, IR, JCI, KRI, MAS, MMM, MOT, PD, PPG, PTV, R, SHLD, UTX, WHR, X

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 1:51:25 PM

The BIX sure doesn't look bullish to me, either on an intraday basis or a daily and/or weekly one. Like the SOX, the BIX has a broadening formation on its daily and weekly chart. It didn't quite touch the top of that broadening formation on the swing higher last week. If this is a true-to-form broadening formation and if it's still valid after so long, then it shouldn't have touched the top of that formation again and should now cycle down through it. It's just so large now that I'm not sure it's still valid.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2005 1:50:23 PM

I don't follow the Washington Post too much so I cannot guarantee the information in my post at 1:49.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2005 1:49:17 PM

Dateline Washington Post The president is set to announce his Supreme Court nominee tonight at 9 p.m. ET, according to spokesman Scott McClellan.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 1:48:42 PM

The SOX is drifting toward a five-minute Keltner line currently at 467.97, with the SOX last testing this line near the open this morning. SOX bulls want to see a bounce here or at least at 467.45, the next five-minute support, while bears want to just start breathing again. The SOX is near the top of a long-term ascending regression channel on the weekly chart, so that I would think that gains would be harder to post here, but the daily Keltner chart says that it could still have upside to around 481, depending on how it closes. The two possibilities aren't totally incompatible, since that channel is best seen on a weekly chart. The SOX could pop up to 581 and then decline inside the rising regression channel by the end of the week. Let's see how the SOX ends the day today, however. Be aware, SOX bears, that I'm not counseling you on the basis of that rising regression channel resistance to hold onto positions that have hit your stops. Make account-appropriate decisions.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 1:47:25 PM

Oooooeeee! ... Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYX.X) 752.45 +1.28% Link ... big move today. Thanks to IBM! A "key stock" in many indices.

A spread triple top buy signal on conventional 5-point box Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 1:43:16 PM

The OEX trades sideways, with the BIX perhaps pulling it one direction and the RLX the other. The RLX is still not convincingly running out of steam yet, with the 15-minute breakout level now at 471.47 and the RLX at 474.54 and climbing while I typed. The bearish price/RSI divergence continues, but . . . . OEX bears need to see a steep drop on the RLX. Oh, and while bears are wishing, they need one on the SOX, too.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 1:42:38 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $20.09 +2.23% Link ... threatens to close above the $20.00 level for the first time since September 2004. Has flirted the past month, but just not enough demand.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 1:34:21 PM

The 300 min stochastic for QQQQ is overbought, not yet cresting but rapidly running out of room, while the 600 min stochastic has just passed its midpoint. The cycle channels on the 3 min chart have not turned substantially higher despite the retest of the highs, and the short cycle indicators are maxxing out. Currently, QQQQ has made only a nominal new high, within range to be considered a double top against this morning's high- but for the day, it remains an unfilled upside gap, a higher high and higher low. Bulls remain in control so long as price holds above the 72 SMA- but with the 30 min cycle close to a top for this run, the next substantial intraday move should be to the downside. My guess would be for a corrective downphase to bottom at a higher low, followed by a retest of the highs.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 1:34:11 PM

The RLX has left its 15-minute breakout zone behind in the dust. As it's done so, however, support has softened somewhat. That might not mean much to an index behaving like the RLX has been, but watching now, with the breakout zone all the way down at 471.44 on a 15-minute close, with the RLX currently at 474.50, and with 15-minute price/RSI continuing to show bearish price/MACD divergence. Sure hasn't meaned much lately, has it?

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 1:31:41 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... some action at the bid on those IBM Aug $75 Puts (IBM-TO), but I've yet to get a fill.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 1:31:39 PM

Sorry, Jeff, and thanks, Jonathan, for answering Jeff's questions about leading indicators. I didn't see anything in my usual news source this morning, so that's why I hadn't included it in my early-morning report. I'd stayed up last night waiting for it, too!

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 1:29:29 PM

As I type, the SOX looks as if it's testing the top of a QCharts drawn ascending regression channel off its summer low from last year, with the best fit as seen on the weekly chart. That means there could be a weekly pop above that channel and a pullback by the end of the week within it, and the SOX still stay within that channel, so bears shouldn't be counting on a pullback. A lot is riding on this afternoon's earnings, isn't it, with the SOX at the top of that channel? The SOX is above a 50% retracement of the decline off the January 04 high into last year's low, but not yet above the 61.8% retracement, at about 481. This rising regression channel could still be a bear flag, although it looks too wide in comparison to the drop that preceded it to qualify as one. The SOX now has a daily Keltner target of 481.64. The descending red trendline visible on this chart is drawn off the January 1, 2001 high, with the SOX popping above that today. Today isn't over yet, though, and this is an important level: Link An upside break here would be important, if maintained on a weekly closing basis. Should we instead expect a pullback within that channel, though? Tomorrow will probably tell that tale.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 1:24:36 PM

GOOG has just printed a new historic high at 309.99. GOOG reports on Thursday.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 1:14:25 PM

OEX tested next Keltner resistance at 574.19 on the 15-minute chart. There are continuing signs of Keltner-style bearish divergence on this chart, but signs that are going to be difficult to believe with the RLX and SOX doing what they're doing. The BIX is trying to stabilize at a double-bottom level just above 367, but hasn't confirmed that double-bottom formation by moving above the peak between the two troughs, at 368.57, with the BIX now at 367.89.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 1:13:50 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 1:05:08 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 1:04:39 PM

Volume breadth is currently +2.24:1 on the NYSE and +3.28:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 1:03:43 PM

The Treasury's 14B 4-week bill auction generated a bid to call ratio of 1.96, the lowest since the May 24th auction, and a high-rate of 3.065%, the highest this year. Foreign central banks took a mere 2.123B of the total.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 1:02:07 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $37.73 +3.14% Link ... earnings after the bell. You can see the bullish challenge can't you? Feel the pressure. WEEKLY R1 right here at $37.77.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 1:00:42 PM

4-week bill auction results due now as QQQQ retests the session high at 30 min channel resistance: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 1:00:15 PM

The OEX remains below the descending trendline off last week's high, however.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:59:38 PM

The OEX has now broken above the 15-minute Keltner line that had been pressuring it lower, doing so before it touched the 572.60-ish level to which it had looked vulnerable on a Keltner basis. As I had warned, though, I thought that target suspect with the RLX and SOX behaving as they were doing.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 12:59:27 PM

CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 203.62 +2.39% Link ... best levels of the session. BIG test coming at bearish resistance trend! WEEKLY R2 (204.01) just ahead.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:57:56 PM

RLX still climbing. It certainly hasn't come down to retest the bottom of its rising wedge, maintaining the breakout and even accelerating the climb, as prices sometimes do when these are broken to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 12:56:22 PM

QQQQ $39.09 +0.92% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 12:55:04 PM

Covered call close out alert ... let's close out (buy back) the two (2) Semiconductor HOLDRs SMH Nov. $37.50 Calls (SMH-KU) at the offer of $2.00. Currently $1.90 x $2.00

Will follow the currently long Nov. $32.50 Calls (SMH-KZ) with a stop should the SMH trade $36.70.

SMH $37.45 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 12:50:47 PM

Jeff- I think this is it:

July 13, 2005 -- The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators for Japan fell two-tenths of a percentage point in May, the most recent month for which data are available. The index now stands at 98.0 (1990=100). The index was unchanged in March and slipped one-tenth of a percentage point in April. For the six months ending in May, the index increased just two-tenths of a percent.

"The continued flatness of the leading index suggests that the [Japanese] economy will grow in the near term, but more slowly than in the first quarter," says the New York-based business research group. In the first quarter of 2005, Japan's inflation-adjusted GDP advanced at an annual rate of 4.9%.


Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 12:49:21 PM

Linda ... did you ever see anything on Japan's leading indicators? I can't find anything.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:48:31 PM

OEX so far still finding resistance at a 15-minute Keltner line currently at 573.27, with the OEX currently at 573.17. The OEX has essentially begun trading sideways, however, with Keltner resistance and Keltner support beginning to ring it, so that there's little guidance as to the direction of the break.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 12:47:31 PM

Ten year notes are showing no weakness, at a new session high of 111 49/64, and TNX down 3.5 bps at 4.188%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 12:46:31 PM

Distributed Energy (DESC) $5.62 +17.81% ... higher after the solutions to decentralized energy markets provider raised its revenue forecast for Q2 and fiscal 2005 thanks to increased bookings and backlog. Expects 2005 revenue to be in the $40 million range compared to previous forecast of $30 million. For Q2, expects revenues to be above $10 million. Analysts were expecting Q2 revenue of $6.7 million and $30.3 million for the year.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 12:45:33 PM

How long can this continue?????

As the cliche goes, longer than any 1 bear can remain solvent. On the negative side, volatility looks beyond low at this point- very extreme readings building up. The low volume looks suspicious to me as well, as a true breakout should be on rising volume. The cycle picture is not bearish, but the daily and weekly cycles are entering zones at which tops have tended to occur, though in these timeframes, there's still room for days to weeks of upside before they max out. The tell will a decline that lasts longer than mere hours- on the daily, at least 2 days of successive lower highs and lower lows.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:41:32 PM

Here's the rising wedge shape I'm watching on the RLX, with the upside resistance currently being tested. Note the bearish price/RSI divergence: Link Traditionally, these are bearish, not bullish formations, so the expectation would be a downside breakdown. For a couple of years, these have tended to break to the upside as much as to the downside. Now, however, bulls do not want to see the RLX break back below that rising lower trendline after there's been an attempted upside breakout.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:37:08 PM

RLX still charging higher.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:36:42 PM

OEX testing 15-minute Keltner resistance (on closes) at 573.31, with the OEX also at 573.31 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:35:49 PM

SOX to a new HOD.

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2005 12:41:10 PM

After the close last night the $NASI weekly gave a sell signal, however, this maybe a false reading. Link

Here's another more detailed annotated chart, using the Profunds. Link

INTC & YHOO report and Greenspan speaks tomorrow, that will give the market some more guidance.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 12:32:44 PM

QQQQ's 30 min channel has flattened, with the range narrowing to support at 38.92 and resistance at 39.16, the short cycle indicators sliding sideways. This flat low-volume drift is classic flagpole rally action, but until either the session high or the 72 SMA support at 38.97 break, direction will be up for grabs: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:31:02 PM

So far, the OEX is incredibly still being pressured lower by the Keltner line currently at 573.30, with the OEX currently at 573.15. The OEX has not dropped all the way to 572.60-ish next support, however.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:29:03 PM

SOX just cents away from the previous HOD.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 12:28:35 PM

Internet Initiative Japan (IIJI) $10.19 -3.86% ... this bull was really looking forward to some follow through to the upside today. Weren't you? Hang in there. Was looking for a report on Japan's leading indicators.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:27:16 PM

Another new HOD for the RLX. This formation since late yesterday begins to look like a rising wedge, supposedly bearish, but these have not been good predictors of downside breaks for a long, long time now.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:25:51 PM

SOX moving up to challenge the prior HOD, again bouncing finally from that five-minute bounce-prompting line now at 467.25. No new HOD yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:24:55 PM

Caution, bears, as the Wilshire 5000 pops a little, although remaining within the right-shoulder level for the new H&S. I wouldn't be surprised to see this formation to settle into a triangle shape instead at some point or another, but bears don't want to see the Wilshire 5000 instead rush up to invalidate the formation by forming a new HOD.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 12:22:36 PM

Hmmm... the next level up "upside risk" in the nq05u (see 10:47:03) is 1,613.88. QCharts' WEEKLY R2 is higher at 1,621.66.

This WEEK's QQQQ Weekly R2 is $39.76, which would be juuuuust enough above a $39.65 covered call, or naked call seller to get my interest for an upside target.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:18:45 PM

I'm stumped. Are the RLX and SOX just going to keep running or are some of the other indices going to reel them in? Or are the RLX and SOX (and possibly others, as I've been focusing so tightly on these) going to haul the other indices up into stronger performance?

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 12:18:26 PM

Session high for 10-year notes, with ZN futures printing 111 11/16, TNX down 2.7 bps at 4.196%, losing 4.2% support. Given the toppiness in the daily cycle, QQQQ bulls will be looking for a break back below 4.18% support to suggest the beginning of a breakdown in TNX.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:17:44 PM

Wilshire 5000 just about 8 points away from a H&S neckline test now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 12:20:18 PM

VXN.X ... quickly checking the QQQQ option chain and most actives. That "pop" in the VXN.X may well have been a seller of the Aug. $39 Calls (QQQ-HM) as I see a 517 contract "spike" in volume from $0.65-$0.62.

$39 + 0.65 = $39.65.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:16:57 PM

OEX still being pressured by the 15-minute Keltner line currently at 573.30. Earlier that action had shown that the OEX might be vulnerable to mid-channel support, now at 572.57, with the OEX at 572.91. Watch for a potential bounce at that level, if it should be touched. Bears want to see that support fail, or 573.30 Keltner resistance continue to hold on 15-minute closes if there is a bounce.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:15:25 PM

RLX still not giving up.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:14:36 PM

The Wilshire 5000's five-minute 100/130-ema's are at 12,232.69 and 12,231.31, with the neckline for that H&S near that level. The Wilshire 5000 is at 12,241.72 as I type. Watch for a bounce or a confirmation at those five-minute 100/130-ema's if they should be tested.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 12:14:00 PM

VXN.X 13.51 -2.17% ... right at 11:00-11:05 I'm seeing a pretty good "pop" higher from 13.22-13.60.

QQQQ $39.04 +0.80% was trading $39.06-02.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:11:08 PM

Wilshire 5000 rounding over where you'd expect it to round over for the potential H&S visible on its five-minute chart, but no confirmation yet. Has anyone noted the H&S on the advdec line's five-minute chart, too? Neither has been confirmed, nor invalidated.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 12:10:47 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:03:49 PM

No new high on the SOX yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:02:52 PM

RLX at a new HOD, although only by a few cents. Certainly no signs of bearishness yet there.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 12:02:38 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 12:01:13 PM

SOX perhaps to test or bounce from that five-minute Keltner line that was prompting bounces earlier this morning and since about 3:05 yesterday, with only a couple of brief violations earlier today. That line is at 467.18 with the SOX at 467.29 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 11:59:53 AM

Exar Corp. (EXAR) $16.75 +5.74% Link ... strong move from recent consolidation. Company makes chips for various electronic appliances as I remember.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:59:42 AM

Wilshire 5000 approaching the 12,256-ish level of its right shoulder on its H&S on the five-minute chart. It's at 12,249.90 as I type. A move too much above 12,260 would question that formation. There was the wanted bearish divergence as the head was formed, but that's no guarantee it will confirm, particularly since this is just a five-minute formation being watched.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:58:01 AM

Thanks, Jonathan, for the VXO volatility information in your 11:37 post.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 11:56:55 AM

Through the decline that preceded it and the current bounce, QQQQ's 30 min keltner channel continues to rise, with lower support up to 38.90 and upper resistance at 39.20. The current bounce within the short cycle downphase is weaker than the dip, and volume has slowed considerably. 72 SMA support is up to 38.93. Volume breadth is positive 3.24:1 on the Nasdaq, and until it goes negative or price breaks the 72 SMA, the benefit of the doubt continues to go to the bulls. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 11:57:53 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,632.38 -0.01% Link ... still having trouble with that 3,650 level aren't they? Did get a close above 3,650 on 07/14, but have since been pinned underneath.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:55:23 AM

OEX now testing 15-minute Keltner resistance at 573.45 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX at 573.42 as I type. Bears want this resistance to hold, and bulls want to see the OEX push above it. As long as the OEX remains below that resistance level and especially below 573.30 on 15-minute closes, the Keltners say it's vulnerable back to 572.60 or so, but watch the SOX and the RLX. They need to cooperate and pull back, something they're showing no signs of doing so far. Difficult to trust Keltner evidence on the OEX with that going on.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:52:11 AM

Wilshire 5000 still forming a shoulder for a potential H&S on its five-minute chart, neither having confirmed nor invalidated that formation.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:50:03 AM

Of course, some will have noticed not-to-be-trusted continuation-form inverse H&S's on the SOX's and RLX's one-minute charts, with necklines at the descending trendlines off the day's high, and with the RLX's version still lacking a right shoulder.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:48:49 AM

SOX and RLX both making a bid for higher highs as I type. Neither there yet, and the SOX not above the descending trendline off the day's high unless it does so while I'm uploading this. The RLX popped above that trendline, then fell back below it, although not much below it.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:43:23 AM

Okay, so there's some confusion on the markets, a sign that all traders, whether bullish or bearish, should be careful. Look at the SOX and the RLX, and you think there's no stopping these markets. Look at the OEX, and you find resistance holding where bears would expect it to hold, although they might have preferred less of a bounce. Look at the Wilshire 5000 and note that it only barely topped Friday's high and didn't top last week's. It climbed, but didn't breach the right-shoulder level for that H&S that it had been forming, although the formation may no longer be valid because it extended so far in time. However, lo and behold, the Wilshire 5000 looks as if it might be forming a H&S (five-minute chart) on the top of today's climb, now in the right-shoulder level.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:39:24 AM

SOX again testing that bounce-prompting five-minute Keltner line, currently at 566.90 with the SOX at 566.97 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:38:22 AM

The OEX has now begun to find resistance on 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 573.47. Next support on that chart at about 572.50. So far, the OEX has not broken out of its descending regression channel off last week's high, to the topside, at least. There was a brief break yesterday to the bottom, near the close. Those hoping for a continued rollover want to see continued 15-minute closes below that Keltner line at 573.47 and they really want the SOX and RLX to turn lower, too. Hard to believe much OEX downside is possible with both of those still in breakout mode on their 15-minute Keltner charts, as hard as the BIX tries to carry the OEX lower.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 11:37:01 AM

DTN reports a session low for OEX volatility (VXO) at 9.56, last at 10.07.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:33:52 AM

No confirmation by a higher HOD, but the RLX is again attempting a bounce from the breakout zone on its 15-minute Keltner chart, rather than violating that support.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 11:32:21 AM

QQQQ bounces, testing the new short cycle downphase with a small bump in the short wavelet oscillator. A lower high on this attempt will confirm the short cycle weakness and set us up for a test of the rising 72 SMA at 37.90.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:29:31 AM

SOX bouncing again from that five-minute Keltner line, but hasn't broken out of the possible bull flag or reached a new HOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 11:28:29 AM

A thunderstorm just started here in Montreal, and some local websites are offline. If I go silent, that should be why.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 11:30:16 AM

Titanium Metals (TIE) $58.83 +17.05% Link ... trading higher and back to previously achieved bullish vertical count (PnF chart) after the company raised its outlook for full-year 2005 operating income by $53 million, to between $123-138 million, citing higher sales revenue and lower-than-expected raw material costs. Sales revenues for 2005 raised by $30 million, to $730-760 million, citing higher average selling prices than previously forecast.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 11:24:44 AM

Crude oil -.452 to 56.90, current low 56.85, just bumping sideways along yeterday's lows. Updated 50 tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:23:33 AM

SOX testing that bounce-prompting line again. So far, the SOX's pullback from the day's high looks corrective and isn't anything that could be described as anything other than a potential bear flag. Still watching as the SOX moves back above that bounce-prompting line again, but doesn't break out of the possible bear flag to the upside.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:20:55 AM

RLX still testing its breakout level on the 15-minute Keltner chart, with that level at 470.60 on 15-minute closes and the RLX now at 471.16. On some intraday charts, there's been pronounced bearish price/RSI divergence as the RLX has climbed this month, and since it's perhaps been so important in helping to prop up the OEX, it's of interest to OEX traders. The 30-minute RSI has a potential H&S, although not yet confirmed, with such formations sometimes serving as leading indicators. Remember that RSI moves quickly, though, and can give false signals.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 11:19:43 AM

Avon Products (AVP) $32.45 -11.33% Link ... sharply lower after the company gave a Q3 forecast for EPS between $0.34-0.36 a share, down from last year's $0.37 and consensus of $0.43. Fiscal-year earnings per share targets were also lowered to $2.03-2.08 from prior guidance of $2.12-2.17 per share. Consensus was at $2.14.

The company said China experienced an unexpected, temporary decline as its Beauty Boutique store owners reacted with concern over the company's upcoming resumption of door-to-door selling in that country.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 11:18:10 AM

Volume breadth has weakened but remains strong, +1.65:1 on the NYSE and +2.91:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:18:20 AM

A first five-minute SOX close beneath the Keltner line currently at 466.66 since 3:05 yesterday afternoon. This is a minute change in trend, only, but one to watch. Bulls want to see a mannered and accumulative pullback, not a steep one that smacks of a sell-off.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:16:17 AM

The OEX drops to test mid-channel Keltner support on the 15-minute chart, never having broken above yesterday's high or out of the Keltner resistance channel shown on an earlier chart.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 11:14:48 AM

10 Most Active ... LU $3.05 -2.55%, MSFT $25.95 +1.56%, QQQQ $39.00 +0.69%, INTC $28.60 +1.34%, SPY $122.62 +0.23%, CSCO $19.89 +1.18%, C $44.69 -0.71%, ORCL $13.89 -0.07%, CAFE $14.68 +4.85%, AVP $32.41 -11.44%

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:14:07 AM

RLX coming down to retest the important breakout level on its 15-minute chart, with that level at 460.57 on 15-minute closes, with the RLX at 471.14.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:12:25 AM

That bounce-prompting Keltner line on the SOX's five-minute chart prompted another bounce, up to test the previous HOD. So far, the SOX hasn't reached a new HOD. Here's the chart, so you have a picture: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 11:11:19 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 11:08:45 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:06:46 AM

The RLX turned down from a double-top level on its five-minute chart, but hasn't confirmed the double-top formation by falling below 470.17, the trough between the two highs. The RLX is at 471.33 as I type, remaining above the breakout level on the 15-minute chart, with that level at 470.55 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:05:05 AM

That five-minute line that's been prompting bounces on the SOX is now at 566.54, with the SOX at 466.79 as I type. Remember that this is only a pattern on the five-minute chart, not as important as patterns on longer-term charts, but bulls want the bounces to continue and bears very much want them to stop.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 11:03:55 AM

QQQQ has pulled back from its upside keltner violations, currently back between daily R1 and R2 as the short cycle indicators begin to roll over from overbought territory. With price so far above 72 SMA support (at the daily pivot, 38.85), confirmation of a rollover will take another 20 cents- in this case, a break below previous resistance at 39.00 should be sufficient to generate the first bearish crosses. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 11:02:25 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 11:00:15 AM

That bounce-prompting five-minute Keltner line on the SOX is now at 466.46, with the SOX now at 466.96. Bulls want to see the SOX continue to bounce from this line; bears don't.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:58:53 AM

The Wilshire 5000 is back below Friday's high, and never convincingly violated the right-shoulder level on its H&S. It has, however, extended that right-shoulder level so far in time that I don't think the formation is valid any longer. I'll still watch it, however, to see what it tells us about market sentiment.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 10:57:10 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... We were 1/2 bullish position stopped on Geron (GERN) and currently trying to buy back the naked IBM Aug $75 Puts (IBM-TO) for $0.05.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:56:55 AM

I love that commercial just completed on CNCB: "It's not the Leaning Tower of Pizza, and we don't get French benefits."

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:54:33 AM

The line that's been supporting the SOX since the last 30 minutes of trading yesterday is at 466.35 (five-minute closes), with the SOX at 466.99 and trying to bounce from just above it rather than dropping all the way to touch it. Now has five-minute Keltner resistance at 467.26 on five-minute closes, but this five-minute resistance is so light as to be negligible.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 10:54:00 AM

Volume breadth +2.2:1 on the NYSE, +4.17:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:52:39 AM

OEX still turning down from the Keltner line currently at 575.45. If it's strong, it will find support on 15-minute closes at Keltner support from 573.27-573.62, and it somewhat less strong, at mid-channel support at 572.36. The OEX is at 574.16 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 10:51:04 AM

August crude oil is down .275 at 57.05 here, off a low of 56.85.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:50:50 AM

RLX still maintaining its breakout status on the 15-minute Keltner chart. Needs a 15-minute close below 470.44 to erase that breakout signal, so OEX bulls want to see the RLX continue to bounce from that line on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:48:57 AM

Okay, SOX bulls and bears have a first marker to watch now. Since late yesterday afternoon, in the last thirty minutes of trading, the SOX has been bouncing (on five-minute closes) from a five-minute Keltner line currently at 466.21. Bulls want that to continue; bears want it to stop.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 10:48:43 AM

The only problem with an otherwise very bullish picture is the very light volume on this break to new highs, with 27M shares traded so far. Then again, this is just under half of yesterday's extremely light 57.2M shares, and so is on track to exceed yesterday's volume if the current run rate keeps up. IB reports the average daily volume at 87.79M QQQQ shares.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 10:47:03 AM

Bears in BIG trouble here .... NASDAQ e-mini (nq05u) with a new bullishly fit 38.2% retracement at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:46:15 AM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner resistance currently at 575.42 continues to hold on 15-minute closes, with the OEX not yet able to follow some other indices above Friday's high. The OEX remains within testing distance of that Keltner resistance, however. This is the resistance marked by the top of the black channel in the Keltner chart I posted earlier. This resistance has been turning the OEX lower since late Thursday. So far.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 10:40:37 AM

No pullback at all yet for QQQQ, just hanging above 30 min channel resistance and daily R2. Only the short cycle indicators suggest an overbought condition- all longer cycles have room to run. 3 min chart of QQQQ updated at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:38:22 AM

The BIX still tests mid-channel resistance on its 15-minute Keltner chart, and its relative weakness, Keltner-wise, compared to other indices may be hampering the OEX. The BIX remains below 370, at 368.35 as I type, and below 368.75-369.17 next Keltner resistance.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:36:59 AM

Strange, given the action on other indices, but the OEX has still not broken above Keltner resistance now at 575.39 on 15-mninute closes, nor above Friday's action. It's rising to retest that resistance and the resistance line turns higher, so perhaps the breakout is coming, but it hasn't happened yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:34:57 AM

The SOX didn't even pull back to retest its breakout level, at least not yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:34:32 AM

The RLX may be turning down to retest its breakout level again, but that conclusion is tentative as yet. So far, it maintains that breakout status. As I said earlier, bears can't believe too strongly in any kind of pullback potential on the OEX as long as the RLX is charging higher.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:33:00 AM

Jeff, I almost switched versions this weekend, but just couldn't bring myself to do it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 10:32:52 AM

Just sitting the bid on those IBM IBM Aug. $75 Puts (IBM-TO) $0.05 x $0.10. These should go "poof" pretty soon. Just doesn't make sense from a risk perspective to hold a NAKED option for $0.05. Too many "unexpected" things can happen.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:31:31 AM

The SOX has now created a new breakout signal on its 15-minute Keltner chart, but one that shows some Keltner-style bearish divergence so far. No price/RSI bearish divergence, however, but we may find out which matters as the SOX perhaps comes back to retest its breakout level on that chart, currently at 465.78. SOX bulls want to see that maintained on 15-minute closes and certainly want to see 463.59 maintained on 15-minute closes.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 10:31:04 AM

Ten year notes higher, TNX -1.6 bps at 4.207%. Crude oil is down to a 5 cent gain at 57.375.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:29:23 AM

OEX now again facing 15-minute Kelner resistance that has turned it back since late Thursday, with that resistance at 575.37 on 15-minute closes and with the OEX currently at 475.91.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 10:29:02 AM

QQQQ has blown far above its upper keltner channels- these moves are usually quickly reversed except in the most bullish of trending moves. If it's going to come back down, it needs to happen in the next 10 minutes or so.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:28:07 AM

Wilshire 5000 now above Friday's high.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:26:32 AM

SOX above Thursday's high. Wilshire not yet above Friday's, though, much less Thursday's. RLX jumping back from its test of its breakout zone, back to test the day's high.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 10:25:04 AM

QQQQ clears daily R1 and now tests daily R2, holding steadily above the 30 min keltner channel top: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:24:51 AM

SOX just cents under Thursday's high.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:24:27 AM

OEX still dealing with nearest Keltner resistance, carrying it higher with it but not breaking above it. Next Keltner resistance at 575.27 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 10:25:02 AM

GMX Resources (GMRX) $16.50 +8.05% Link ... GMX Resources -Warrants- (GMXRW) $4.86 +17.67% ...

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:22:42 AM

RLX dropping down to test its breakout level on its 15-minute chart, a first step before OEX bears can begin to believe that the OEX might roll over. That level is at 470.16 on 15-minute closes, with the RLX currently at 470.64. Remember that this has been support for the RLX on bounces for days. Although the current volatility on the RLX is sometimes indicative of market tops, it's dangerous to assume it will this time, so keep watching. Watch the SOX, too, trying to carry markets higher on its back, approaching a test of Thursday's high as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 10:20:37 AM

I had switched over from QChart's version 5.0 to 5.1 last night. What a mess I made of things.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 10:20:37 AM

August crude oil has reopened, currently +.25 at 57.575, off a low of 56.85 and high of 57.775.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:17:54 AM

SOX above Friday's high, with Thursday's 466 high above. The SOX is at 465.15 as I type, just off the day's high. It's facing 15-minute Keltner resistance at 465.50, on 15-minute closes.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 10:16:38 AM

QQQQ has broken the session high on a burst of volume, testing daily R1 at 39.02. Overall volume is still very light at 17.4M shares, but it's picking up along with the price. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:16:31 AM

OEX facing nearest Keltner resistance now, at 574.33, with the black channel resistance depicted earlier at 575.23, all of this on 15-minute closes. The OEX is at 574.27 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:15:25 AM

I show the Wilshire 5000's 15-minute candles finding support on the former descending trendline off Thursday's high, suggesting caution for bears. However, the Wilshire 5000 hasn't yet topped today's high, much less Friday's or even less Thursday's. Watch Friday's 12268.17 high first if there's a new HOD for today. The Wilshire 5000 is at 12,250.57 as I type, with the previous HOD at 12,255.54.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 10:14:34 AM

Ten year notes have risen back to yesterday's range and are currently pulling back from their session high, TNX now down .9 bps at 4.214%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 10:12:46 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 10:11:06 AM

Volume breadth is holding strong on the Nasdaq, +3.3:1 for advancing volume. On the NYSE, it's down to 1.75:1 for advancing shares.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 10:07:24 AM

VIX.X 10.60 -1.57% ... DAILY Pivot Levlels ... 10.60, 10.70, Piv= 10.88, 10.98, 11.16

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 10:05:08 AM

Still no followup from the Fed- looks like the 6.5B net drain is going to stick. I will check in on their webpage later just in case.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 10:03:27 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:03:26 AM

And the SOX swoops back down to that descending trendline off Thursday's high again. The five-minute chart shows lots of volatility as the SOX bulls and bears battle it out.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 10:01:39 AM

QQQQ bounces from the daily pivot on a surge of volume, testing the rising 30 min channel resistance line here at 38.93. A failure to fall back below the 72 SMA at 38.77 will suggest a break from the declining 30 min cycle trend over the past 6 sessions, for a possible bull flag breakout. If so, the current highs should get broken easily on high volume- but so far, volume is light again, 12.9M QQQQ shares traded so far today.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 10:00:29 AM

SOX back near the day's high, just cents off. The day's high has been 464.20 and the SOX is at 464.04 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 9:58:46 AM

Swing trade close out naked put alert ... Let's close out the three (3) IBM IBM Aug. $75 Puts (IBM-TO) for $0.05.

IBM $84.50 +3.28% ...

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 9:59:05 AM

This morning, the Wilshire 5000 bounced strongly after having tentatively confirmed a H&S and a close beneath the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. It didn't bounce above the right-shoulder level, however, although it did pierce the descending trendline off the Thursday morning high. It's back at that trendline now, perhaps just a touch above it, retesting it to see if it holds as support. No conclusion yet, but bulls want first a move above the last 15-minute swing high at 12,268.17 while bears want a rollover beneath this morning's open. Currently, the Wilshire 5000 is at 12,236.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 9:57:13 AM

The Fed has just announced a 3.75B 2-day repo, resulting in a drain of 6.5B for the day. But there's still room and time to add an overnight repo, which should occur within the next few minutes if it's going to happen.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 9:55:57 AM

I believe that the RLX has to erase its breakout signal on the 15-minute chart before we can believe too strongly in an OEX rollover. Currently, that would mean at the least an RLX 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 469.83, with the RLX at 471.27 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 9:54:13 AM

The SOX is indeed coming up for a retest of 15-minute keltner resistance (on closes) now at 463.47, but likely to get nudged higher if the SOX rises gradually.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 9:53:05 AM

SOX dropping down to retest the top of that bearish right triangle after breaking above it this morning, but failing to print a new high. A drop below the 458.15-ish level, the bottom of last Thursday's small gap, would confirm a lower high on the SOX, something that short-term bulls don't want to see confirmed. The SOX is at 462.62 as I type, trying to hold above that former descending trendline off Thursday's high and perhaps preparing for another test of 15-minute Keltner resistance at 463.43.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 9:50:49 AM

RLX still above 470, at 470.84, but off its HOD above 472.00.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 9:48:41 AM

So far, the OEX has pulled back from the Keltner channel line that has turned it back since late last Thursday, with that channel line currently at 575.12 and with the OEX currently at 573.29. Here's the chart, with the channel line the upper black one: Link Note the gathering support in the 572.50-ish zone, however, with the OEX already approaching the top of that support zone. Bounce attempt may not be over just yet, depending on how the OEX moves with respect to that support zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 9:45:55 AM

QQQQ is pulling back from its upside 30/60 min channel breach, testing the daily pivot here at 38.86 just below yesterday's highs: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 9:45:04 AM

Just getting around. But should have myself together in a moment.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 9:44:44 AM

The OEX pulls back to the top of a QCharts-drawn descending regression channel drawn off last week's high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2005 9:44:30 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert .... for Geron Corp. (GERN) $10.40 -4.59% here.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 9:44:01 AM

The SOX has not yet topped last week's 466.00 high, with the SOX now at 463.00. It does, however, remain above the former descending trendline off Thursday's high, so we're getting a higher-high-or-lower-high test on the SOX.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 9:40:17 AM

The OEX hit the Keltner resistance that's been turning it back since late Thursday afternoon, with that Keltner line nudged higher by this move, and now at 575.14. Bulls want to see a 15-minute close above that Keltner line and then a move up to test the descending trendline off Thursday's high, while bears want a rollover here.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 9:38:53 AM

Ten year notes are recovering off their lows, TNX down to a .2 bp gain at 4.225%. 4.2% is key support crossed yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 9:38:16 AM

BIX climbing, too, but only to mid-channel Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. It's engulfed the last 15-minute candle yesterday, but Keltner-wise, it's climb isn't as strong as on some other indices as it so far remains vulnerable to this resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 9:36:49 AM

Waiting for the opening dust to settle, but currently advancing volume leads 6.39:1 on the NYSE and 5.37:1 on the Nasdaq, very bullish if it doesn't blow off. My indicator feed is down currently, so I can't see the TRIN and TRINQ, but the realtime put to call ratio (total) is down at .57.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 9:36:47 AM

RLX zooming.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 9:35:46 AM

WMT's punch higher has already been reversed this morning, as it hovers at $50.03, but it certainly didn't confirm that H&S yet, either.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 9:34:43 AM

Strong punch higher on the OEX, scrambling the 15-minute Keltner lines. The OEX has risen into yesterday's gap to test it.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 9:34:07 AM

SOX testing the top of that bearish right triangle, having actually breached it a little to the topside, but now dipping back to retest the resistance and see if it holds as support. So far, it is, but no move yet above the last swing high, at 463.89, although now rising to test it, or last Thursday's high.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 9:25:47 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycle indicators have turned up along with price, the 30 min channel top up to 39.04. The daily cycle indicators have reached overbought territory, with 20-day bollinger resistance up to 39.15. Bears need a break back below 38.80 to signal a reversal of the intraday trend.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 9:22:43 AM

I'm also going to be watching the SOX in early trading. Depending on one's bias, the SOX might be forming a neutral triangle or a bearish right triangle on top of its steep climb off the 7/07 low. Bias aside, I think the multiple tests of the 458.55-ish level make the bearish right triangle interpretation look more valid. Despite what might or might not "look" more valid, watch for a break below last Thursday's gap, with the bottom of that gap at 458.15, or above the descending trendline off the Thursday high, with that line at about 462.30-462.40, depending on how its drawn, as a sign of a break out of that triangle. Watch for a fake-out move.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 9:22:12 AM

Lots of WMT stock being sold at the bid in pre-market action. Of course, "lots" is a qualitative and not quantitative word and since I'm not used to watching T&S pre-market on WMT, I may have it all wrong. I'm watching this because the RLX has played such a role in propping up and/or prompting bounces on the OEX. WMT was close to confirming a H&S on top of a 60-minute climb yesterday and I wanted to see how it looked pre-market. It looks as if the neckline is at about $49.96, if I've got that right, with WMT closing at $49.99 yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 8:50:33 AM

Yesterday, the OEX completed an evening-star reversal signal under strong resistance on the daily chart, a resistance band that I've had marked there for many months and perhaps years: Link The fact that such a signal formed after a strong upward bias means that we can't trust that the downside target, 567-568 by some reckoning methods, will be reached, even though the fact that it formed under that resistance bands lent it some credibility, at least. At the close, the 15-minute Keltner chart showed the OEX ended at/just below Keltner support with the chart pattern beginning to take on the look of a falling wedge, usually a bullish formation although wedges haven't performed well for years. Futures action so far hints that there could be a bounce or bounce attempt. Confirming follow-through on that reversal signal was needed this morning, but it may not occur, although futures action doesn't always indicate much beyond the opening bias. Crude has been rising off earlier levels and that might impact the open, too. On a bounce, the 15-minute Keltner channel indicates that first resistance can be found near 572 and then near 572.70-573.05. Bears would like to see a move lower at the open that confirms the 567-568 downside signal, not a bounce, but if the cash markets open in accordance with current futures action, they're not likely to get their wish. If there's a bounce, watch those Keltner levels first for possible resistance. Bulls want to see that resistance broken on 15-minute closes and bears want a rollover, the sooner the better.

Because there's possibly strong resistance from 572-573 and the reversal signal on the daily chart, those who feel bullish should exercise extreme care, especially in that 572-573 level, and then again near 574.71, the current level of the Keltner resistance line that has been turning the OEX lower since last Thursday afternoon, and then at 576, the current level of the descending trendline off the Thursday morning high. Because that reversal signal was produced below a strong resistance band on the daily chart, I don't like the risk vs. reward of a long play here, but then I haven't had a good grasp on the rallies lately, either, so take that concern with the grain of salt it perhaps deserves.

What if there is a rollover? One of those ways of calculating the downside target resulted from a study of previous strong uninterrupted climbs along a 60-minute 10-sma. The OEX yesterday morning met the parameters that suggested at least a 38.2% retracement of the rally off the 7/07 low, but we're working with possibilities and probabilities here, not certainties. A new high for this month erases all that, so adhere to the stops you've set on bearish positions. Do have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of 567-568, if that should occur. OEX 569.90 is daily Keltner support, so without a gap below that level this morning, there may be a bounce attempt from it, if touched, although that doesn't look likely in earliest trading, at least.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 8:34:12 AM

Equities edged off their new highs, QQQQ up .22 at 38.95 here, while ten year notes have edged lower, TNX +.8 bps at 4.229%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 8:30:52 AM







Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 8:25:27 AM

PALO ALTO, Calif. (AP) -- Personal-computer maker Hewlett-Packard Co. on Tuesday said it will cut 14,500 jobs, about 10 percent of its full-time staff, as part of a restructuring plan designed to save $1.9 billion annually and boost business performance.

The job cuts will occur over the next six quarters, the Palo Alto-based company said.

Most of the job cuts will come in support functions -- such as information technology, human resources and finance -- and the rest will be made inside business units.


Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 8:20:22 AM

Session highs across the board, with QQQQ testing upside 30 min channel resistance at 38.98, below daily R2 at 39.01. The move afterhours has taken out yesterday's high, with the IBM surge gapping the price above yesterday's 37.81 resistance. QQQQ currently trades +.23 at 38.96.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 7:59:48 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor Co. (F: news, chart, profile) reported second-quarter net income fell 18.7% to $946 million, or 47 cents a share, with revenue up 3.7% to $44.5 billion. "Our global automotive results were disappointing, reflecting the fiercely competitive environment in which we continue to operate, particularly in North America," said Ford Chairman and CEO Bill Ford. The earnings came in ahead of Thomson First Call-compiled analyst forecasts of 33 cents a share in earnings on revenue of $36.9 billion. Ford held to its $1 to $1.25 earnings guidance for 2005 excluding the impact of special items and discontinued operations.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 7:59:16 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Merrill Lynch on Tuesday reported second-quarter earnings ahead of expectations with help from a 20% jump in revenue. The broker (MER: news, chart, profile) said it earned $1.6 billion, or $1.14 a share, compared with a profit of $1.4 billion, or $1.05 a share, in the year-ago second quarter. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call expected Merrill to earn $1.08 a share, on average.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/19/2005 7:35:05 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1228.50, NQ 1587, YM 10647 and QQQQ +.15 at 38.88. Gold is down 1 to 420, silver -.023 at 6.98, ten year notes down 1/8 at 111 25/64 and crude oil is up .025 to 57.35.

We await the 8:30 release of Housing Starts and Building Permits, est. 2.05M and 2.085M respectively.

Linda Piazza : 7/19/2005 6:54:21 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei coiled most of the day, posting a small gain, with most other Asian markets also posting gains. European markets started out with a positive cast, although the FTSE 100 dropped into negative territory a few minutes ago for a reason that I've yet to determine. Our futures are higher this morning. As of 6:45 EST, gold was down by $1.20, and crude, down $0.16 to $57.14. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

After a three-day holiday, the Nikkei opened near the flat-line level Tuesday, and it gyrated around that flat-line level for the first hour of trading. After briefly breaking to the downside out of that coil, it jumped back up and coiled the rest of the day around that flat-line level. The Nikkei closed higher by 6.16 points or 0.05%, at 11,764.84. In earliest trading, NEC benefited from IBM's earnings, and oil explorer Inpex led energy stocks lower. Lower crude prices, a firmer dollar, and earnings expectations were factors in Japan and other Asian countries, promoting gains, if sometimes tepid ones.

Other Asian markets moved higher, too. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.09%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.23%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 1.99%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng was nearly flat, gaining 0.01%. China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.22%.

European markets are currently mixed, with the FTSE 100 having dropped out of a coiling action a few minutes ago. The FTSE 100 had opened in positive territory along with other European bourses, with U.K. sentiment boosted in early trading by food producer RHM's good IPO showing in conditional trading. The firmer dollar, IBM's earnings report, weaker crude and M&A activity were pegged as buoying European markets in early trading. Also, Germany's ZEW indices surprised to the upside against an expectation for a sideways move. July's expectations rose to 37 against June's 19.5. The upcoming September election was mentioned as being responsible for the improvement in expectations and the current view, too, so it's as yet unclear whether the gain can be sustained. The index measuring the Eurozone expectations rose to 29.0 from June's 16.7.

Renewed speculation about a possible PepsiCo (PEP) bid for Groupe Danone boosted enthusiasm and Groupe Danone's share price, with a French radio report renewing that speculation. SABMiller will buy Santo Domino Group's Columbian brewer Bavaria,, with Heineken previously having been considered a bidder, too. SABMiller and Heineken both gained.

European chipmakers weren't benefiting from other gains in early trading, though, as microchip designer ARM Holdings dropped after revising lower its FY 2005 guidance for dollar revenue growth, with these estimates related to expected royalty revenues from acquired company PIPD. Sterling-denominated revenue and profit expectations were not changed. In stock-specific news, French pharmaceutical Sanofi-Aventis dropped after its earnings report showing sales in line with expectations. German reinsurer rose after announcing that an increase in reserves at subsidiary American Re would result in a reduction in Q2's profit. The reduction was much less than had been anticipated.

As of 6:39, the FTSE 100 was lower by 8.70 points or 0.17%, to 5,205.50. At its low a few minutes ago, it dipped briefly below 5,200, but I haven't yet been able to find a reason for the FTSE's action. The CAC 40 was higher by 28.30 points or 0.65%, to 4,391.77. The DAX was higher by 16.08 points or 0.34%, to 4,735.65.

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